Bleacher Report - Articles by Matt Femrite

2009 NBA Finals: A Recap and Key Factors For Each Team

Matt Femrite — Sun, 31 May 2009 02:55:30 -0400

Am I the first one to write about an NBA finals preview? I doubt it. There’s probably a few more, maybe a lot more coming up before Thursday’s Game One at the Staples Center.

But I couldn’t resist.

For the sake of the NBA, I wanted Orlando to lose. I really did. Dwight Howard’s infectious personality? I had to look away whenever I sensed a huge grin on his face was coming (unfortunately this was every possession). Rashard Lewis being one of my favorite players? An 0-for-10 game from the field with seven turnovers would’ve been amazing.

Why would I possibly want Orlando to lose?

Well the NBA needs huge ratings, and a rival matchup between two superstars would draw the interest from fans that Michael Jordan drew back in the mid-'90s. A LeBron-Kobe matchup would’ve been the perfect NBA finals. It would be the big market versus small market, premier superstar versus future superstar, a city with championships versus a city with only hope.

It all seemed too good to actually happen, and it was.

Orlando, despite being the underdog for the NBA title, is red hot coming to Los Angeles. It also appears they have a superhero on their side in Howard, much like when they had Shaq as a young center so long ago against Houston.

The Lakers have the most talent of any team in the league, but their ability to put the nail in the coffin in games during the playoffs has been quite the concern for Lakers' fans. After Game Six at Denver, however, the Lakers played their best game at the most important time and are the favorite to take home the NBA title.

However, without further ado, I give my own key factors for each team on what will make-or-break their chances of a championship ring.

Whether they’ll actually listen to me or not is up to them.

Los Angeles Lakers

Key No. 1: Kobe Bryant

Like the Nuggets, there’s no one on the defensive side for the Orlando Magic that can shut down Bryant; they can only contain him. Courtney Lee has established himself as a potential shut down defender, but he’ll have his hands full all series long. Unless Hedo Turkoglu’s wish upon a star for faster foot speed comes true, he will get torched if Stan Van Gundy makes a move to switch Hedo onto Kobe.

The bottom line is that Lee is undersized and inexperienced, and Turkoglu is too slow to stick with Kobe when going to the hoop.

Oh yeah, and Kobe has this thing called "motivation" and it applies to winning an NBA title. He’s in a perfect position to grab his first ring without Shaq, and after losing in an absolute blowout against Boston, he’s going to come in with a no-joke attitude.

Key No. 2: Lakers Three-Point Shooters

It didn’t happen at first, but Orlando eventually wore down LeBron to everyone’s surprise. This was mostly because of LeBron having to carry the Cavaliers every game because of the inconsistencies of his supporting cast. If the Lakers’ supporting cast is not effective to start, Kobe will be Kobe and develop the instinct to try and beat Orlando by himself.

It may work at first, because no one in the world can guard Kobe, but the Lakers’ supporting cast’s failures can wear down Kobe if the series extends to six games or more.

This means Sasha Vujacic, Derek Fisher, Luke Walton, and Trevor Ariza all have to come ready to hit their open jumpers when they get them. So far, they haven't produced efficiently like in the regular season.

Key No. 3: Game Of Matchups—Lakers Defense

Who will guard Howard, and who will guard Lewis or Turkoglu?

Orlando may be the underdog coming to the Staples Center, but they’re a matchup nightmare for anyone. Howard is just too strong for Pau Gasol to handle him. Andrew Bynum has the strength to at least limit Howard’s dunks and baby hook shots, but Gasol has no chance against the versatile forwards from Orlando if they both start together. Both Lewis and Turkoglu have unlimited range and can put the ball on floor to get to the hoop, which is no matchup Gasol would ever dream of having. Bynum may have to start off the bench once again, which puts Gasol at the center position.

Kobe Bryant is likely, and probably wants be the main person to take responsibility in shutting down Turkoglu. Hedo can be huge for the Lakers down the stretch and has been amazing in crunch time, nearly helping the Magic sweep the Cavaliers if it weren’t for LeBron’s heroics in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals. If Kobe can keep Turkoglu off his game offensively, it will make the fourth quarter and crunch time a much easier one for the Lakers.

Key No. 4: Lamar Odom

Just like his whole career, Odom has shown flashes during the Western Conference Finals of how good he really can be. Odom needs to establish himself as an effective third scoring option, not just every other game, but throughout the whole series.

He’ll also need to hit the boards hard to help Gasol and Bynum keep Howard from getting second chance points. Odom’s not only a game changer, but can alter a series with how he plays on the offensive end. If he gets in a zone early, Orlando could be looking at a short series.

Key No. 4: Phil Jackson

Unlike a lot of coaches in the NBA, Jackson likes to let his players play when their opponents make a run. Over the course of the numerous NBA titles, Jackson has won and this has proven to be a method that has worked for the Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers.

Unfortunately, this tactic plays right into Orlando’s hands. There just aren’t many teams that can light up the scoreboard in a matter of moments like the Magic can. The Magic may be down by 20, a couple minutes later that lead may be trimmed to 10, and before Jackson can blink, that 20-point lead can shrink to a one possession game.

Orlando Magic

Key No. 4: Dwight Howard—Defense

There’s a ton of pressure on Howard to do phenomenal against Los Angeles. One of huge factors that Howard has on the game is his defensive presence and ability to rebound.

Bynum looks to have lost his confidence during the playoffs, but he and Gasol have the potential to get Howard in early foul trouble every game. An aggressive Odom, Ariza, and Bryant can also lead to Howard committing fouls to help defense rather than on his own man. Orlando has zero chance of winning four games against Los Angeles if Howard gets in foul trouble game after game.

He’ll have to be an absolute monster on the boards also. Limiting the Lakers' possessions and giving the Magic extra ones is huge for Howard and the rest of the crew to steal a game in Los Angeles.

Key No. 2: Dwight Howard—Offense

Now on the offensive side for Howard, he needs to display the aggressiveness he showed against Cleveland for Orlando to win more than two games. His offense gives Orlando’s shooters enough space every game to heat up. This gives the Lakers a taste of their own medicine—explosiveness.

No post from the Lakers can consistently stop Howard. Gasol is just not strong enough to bang with Howard in the paint, and Bynum is too foul prone. Look for more minutes from Josh Powell and even D.J Mbenga to gather fouls on Howard.

If Howard gets fatigued, he can always take down another shot clock. The option is at his disposal, but if Howard uses this "timeout" excessively, David Stern could ask him to take out the checkbook and assess one of the most unusual fines in NBA history.

Key No. 3: Rafer Alston

Speed kills, and Rafer Alston has a lot of it.

Think of Aaron Brooks and the way he could torch the Lakers. Alston has the same handles, speed, and streaky shooting that can give the Lakers' point guards problems throughout the series. Fisher, to put it lightly, is too old to stick with the speed of Alston. Brown and Jordan Farmaar will have to contain Alston’s speed to keep Orlando from getting unexpected scoring outbursts from their distribute-first, shoot-second point guard.

Key No. 4: Orlando Bench

Mikael Pietrus is an explosive scorer, especially from beyond the arc. The Eastern Conference Finals was his coming out party, but Orlando will need the rest of the bench to be effective as well during the NBA Finals.

Anthony Johnson will need to provide quality minutes against Los Angeles. He doesn’t have to score, but just limit the turnovers and get more than two assists per game.

Marcin Gortat, though he sees very limited action, will need to crash the boards hard every possession. The Lakers have the height to kill teams on the glass, and their rebounding dismantled the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals. This leads to Orlando’s last key to beating Los Angeles.

Key No. 5 Stan Van Gundy

All I’m asking for from Van Gundy is no panic attacks, and to get his voice back. Other than that, go Magic!

Really though, he’s done a fantastic job since they were nearly done for the season when Glen Davis sealed a game winner for the Boston Celtics to take command of the series. That was in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, and Orlando has been red hot since then. They’ve taken care of closing out each series during the playoffs, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Magic steal a game or two at the Staples Center.

My prediction? My head says Lakers in six, but my heart says Orlando in seven.

2009 NBA Draft: Five College Players Who Should Stay in School

Matt Femrite — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 18:09:56 -0400

More this year than any other, it's tough to predict which men's college basketball players will either enter the 2009 NBA Draft or stay an extra year to erase their scrutinized weaknesses. This is especially because of the apparent lack of depth that this summer's draft appears to be. It's a factor that can prompt many freshman and other classmen, ones that are not NBA-ready just yet, to punch their ticket this summer rather than wait for 2010. Along with the 2009 NBA Draft being much more weak than 2008 and (most likely) 2010, the money is another contributing factor can get in the heads of college players. The guaranteed money that comes with being a potential lottery pick, and even just a first-rounder, can prompt players to leave way more early for the draft than they really should. These kind of players, one's that are more raw than polished, are the players that make my list. Of the five players that are listed, only one is not a freshman. This should be no surprise, however, because there's been an obvious lack of freshman sensations this year as there was in 2008. Yet there always seems to be a few newcomers, that are nowhere near fully developed, that enter the draft strictly for the cash. Without further talk though, let's look at five pro prospects that could use another year to not only improve their draft statuses, but polish their skills as well.

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The Top Five Point Guards in the 2009 NBA Draft

Matt Femrite — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 01:19:37 -0400

As struggling teams begin (or have already begun) to tank their way into the lottery in hope of grabbing the number one pick in the NBA Draft, questions are always looming concering who to draft. Mock drafts arise, players at the collegiate level (or overseas) begin to weigh the millions of dollars in the NBA compared to the improvement they can make with another year of college and the shot at an NCAA Final Four, and fans begin to hear about their lottery-bound teams going on unreal losing streaks, of course. As many fans who watch the NBA closely, a talented point guard can rapidly improve a team by taking them out of the cellar to a playoff birth. The Atlanta Hawks realized this only three years too late after taking Marvin Williams over Chris Paul and Deron Williams in the 2005 NBA Draft, but finally trading for a point guard in Mike Bibby in 2008 that propelled them to a near upset over the Boston Celtics. You can also look at New Orleans with Chris Paul, New Jersey with Devin Harris, Denver with Chauncey Billups, and the Los Angeles Clippers with Baron Davis. Oh wait, nothing ever goes the way it should when it comes to the Clippers. Sorry Baron... Anyways, let's look at the top 5 point guards that may be available for the 2009 NBA Draft in no particular order. (Jeff Teague, Willy Warren, and Jrue Holliday were left out based on the question of whether they could play the point or the 2 in the NBA)

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Tubby Smith and The Golden Gophers: Looking Ahead to 2010

Matt Femrite — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 12:55:43 -0400

Luckily for Tubby, this is not Kentucky country where an NIT and first-round exit in the coach's first two years can put him on the hot seat.

While Minnesota went from winning 16 of their first 17 games to losing 10 of their next 16 to finish only a slightly above-average 22-11 (9-9 in Big Ten), Golden Gopher fans should have nothing to worry about. This is even after a first-round exit, thanks to Texas, that ended a season where it looked like there was so much promise for the Gophers after a 70-64 win over Louisville in late December.

Yes, they nearly gave away their NCAA tournament bid to teams like Penn State and Northwestern down the stretch. Being outplayed by Michigan State twice, and also being swept by a bubble-bound Michigan team didn't help their seeding in the NCAA Tournament either. Winning 42 games in two seasons after an ugly 9-22 record during the 2006-2007 season, however, should have Gophers fans optimistic for the future.

Now that Tubby has the Gophers on the winning track again, it's time for the rest of the Gophers squad to build on 2009's success. Here are five factors that could take the Gophers from a bubble team to a Big Ten Championship contender.

1. Ralph Sampson III -Sampson III has a higher ceiling than any of the other big men (Iverson and Paul Carter) that were first recruited by Tubby last year. Sampson III was a project coming into his first year, but him, Damian Johnson and Colton Iverson helped alter hundreds of opponent's shots around the hoop. Now that Sampson III has a full year under his belt, expect his offense to expand, his lanky frame to add some muscle, and his defense to lead to less foul trouble.

2. Devoe Joseph -Joseph showed flashes towards the end of the season of being a reliable scorer. Whether it will be from off the bench as a spark plug or replacing Al Nolen at the point guard position is yet to be determined. His offense is desperately needed though, as this Gopher's squad relies heavily on their defense to give them extra possessions because of there lack of polished offensive players beyond Lawrence Westbrook.

Like Ralph Sampson III, this was Joseph's first year as a collegiate player and will make great progress over the summer and into next winter.

3. Blake Hoffarber and Al Nolen -The Gopher's flop in the last half of the season was mostly because of Hoffarber and Nolen's season-long shooting slumps. Both players struggled mightily on offense as the season progressed. They were huge in the Gopher's win over Louisville early in the season but both have also tailed off since then, especially in Big Ten play.

Nolen shot only 32.7 percent from the field against conference foes. This doesn't let Hoffarber off the hook, however. As a 3-point specialist, he would get an F for his contributions this year as he shot just 26 percent from beyond the arc.

If Hoffarber's and Nolen's offense can catch up to their defenses, Westbrook should be relieved of the pressure to put up around 15 points a night for a team that spreads around the scoring. Also look for the court to be stretched and defenses to be more hesitant to double in the paint if Hoffarber gets out of his shooting slums.

4. Royce White - White's a 5-star prospect and a homegrown stud that Tubby made sure to keep in maroon and gold. With an already polished offensive game, White's 6'7", 210-pound frame will allow him to play inside and out. His defense is not nearly as complete as his offense, but Tubby's pressure-defense approach will surely help him become a well-rounded freshman.

Expect White to average close to 10+ points per game and open up shots for 3-point snipers Devoe Joseph and Blake Hoffarber. Royce White's (as well as other homegrown recruit Rodney Williams Jr) athleticism will help add a new dimension to the Gopher's defense and offense.

5. Replacing Jonathan Williams and Jamal Abu-Shamala - These two players won't return for the 2009-2010 season due to seniority, but both will be replaced right from the get-go. Neither played significant minutes nor made a major impact during the season as both combined for only 141 points and 30 rebounds over 33 games.

Expect Jonathan Williams to be replaced with a more effective post in Trevor Mbakwe. Mbakwe, a 6'7" post originally from the Twin Cities area, has the athleticism and agressiveness in the paint to contribute with rebounding and effective inside defense.

He should help the Gophers off the bench, or, depending on how much he has progressed at Miami Dade, possibly contribute while in the starting lineup. Mbakwe was a highly recruited, 4-star post out of St. Bernard's High School but has yet to find his role at a Division I program.

Jamal Abu-Shamala contributed a majority of the 141 points between him and Jonathan Williams. Incoming recruits Rodney Williams Jr. and Royce White will replace Abu-Shamala, and also steal a few minutes each from the rest of the Gopher's squad. Both will be adding even more depth to an already exceptionally deep team next year.

2010 Prediction

23+ wins

Top five in Big Ten

6th seed at worst in NCAA Tournament