Bleacher Report - Articles by Kevin Hagstrom

NCAA Tournament: Clock Strikes Midnight on Cinderella

Kevin Hagstrom — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 01:39:53 -0400

Try this for mind-boggling.

The first two rounds of NCAA tournament play have been like returning home after a day at the office and realizing everything is as you left it; as it's supposed to be.

Only one school seeded higher than fifth is still alive, and the top four seeds from two regions were unharmed.

Teams, after all, are ranked based on their play during the season and respective conference tournaments. Surely the higher seeds should win.

Still, something seems amiss. Such as the feeling experienced when you think that you maybe left the garage door open.

To find when a similar scenario last played out, we must travel all the way back to the year in which the Cold War ended and Nintendo was re-launched: 1989.

Back then, No. 11 Minnesota represented the lone hope for upset-seekers across the country.

Now, it's 12th-seeded Arizona (whose history is anything but surprising or Cinderella-like, having reached the Big Dance in 25 consecutive seasons and winning the national title in 1997).

Louisville, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Duke, Gonzaga, and Michigan State struggled this past weekend to pull away from lower-seeded opponents.

In the end, they all came through.

By comparison, the 2008 tournament saw four teams seeded higher than fifth in the regional semifinals, including two 12 seeds (Villanova and Western Kentucky), a 10 seed (Davidson) and a No. 7 seed (West Virginia).

Even in a tamer 2007, where no double-figure seeds reached the Sweet 16, only one region advanced all of the top four teams.

This year could be an anomaly. It's one tournament; hardly a trend.

But for 2009, at least, the upset is dead.

Wisconsin-Florida State: First to 60 Points Wins

Kevin Hagstrom — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 15:07:20 -0400

If you’re looking to witness another trendy 12-5 upset in the NCAA Tournament this year, don’t look the way of Wisconsin.

That’s what history tells us, anyway. Other factors may prove this matchup to be the exception to Father Time.

Since Bo Ryan stepped in as head coach prior to the 2001-02 season, the Badgers (19-12) have never defeated a team seeded higher than ninth (UW defeated St. John's 80-70 in the first round of the 2002 tournament).

Wisconsin also tends to struggle most against athletic teams led by strong guard play.

Enter No. 5 Florida State and their best player, senior guard Toney Douglas, who paces the team with per game averages of 21.3 points and 1.85 steals.

Without a shutdown defender to keep pace with smaller players (Joe Krabbenhoft and Marcus Landry can handle talented forwards and centers), Douglas should pose a serious threat to the Badgers.

Florida State (25-9) also plays solid defense, limiting opponents to 38.6 percent shooting, blocking shots, and forcing turnovers (15.4 per game). Not good for a Badgers offense that struggles enough without having pressuring defense and long arms in the passing and shooting lanes to contend with.

It’s scary to imagine what the result will look like.

Wait. There’s a catch. (If life has taught you anything, there’s always a catch.)

Unlike many of the higher-seeded teams Wisconsin has faced in the past, the Seminoles are incredibly careless.

Nearly 23 percent of their possessions result in a turnover, offsetting the job they do on the defensive end and killing the flow of their offense. Don’t forget Wisconsin plays a pretty mean defense, too.

It’s a mixed bag.

If anything is certain, it’s this: The game should be more visually ugly than it is aesthetically pleasing, and the first to 60 wins.

The Wisconsin Badgers' Five Keys to Making Another Big Ten Tournament Run

Kevin Hagstrom — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 14:15:15 -0400

Survive today to secure a tomorrow—that’s the adage the Wisconsin Badgers will live by beginning Friday afternoon with a tilt against Ohio State.

A win would likely wrap up an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament.

In the teams’ only meeting of the season, Wisconsin (19-11, 10-8 Big Ten) prevailed 55-50 despite a Mariana Trench-sized disparity in shooting (UW hit on 36.4 percent of its shots, OSU on 55.3). Second chance opportunities in the form of 14 offensive rebounds and careless ball control by the Buckeyes (20-9, 10-8), resulting in 19 turnovers, proved to be the difference.

The only thing distinctly different about the matchup this time around is that OSU may be without the full services of its big sophomore forward, Dallas Lauderdale.

The 6'8", 255-pound Lauderdale sprained his shoulder versus Northwestern March 8. He is expected to play, but how much he can contribute is yet to be determined.

If it turns out to be little, Wisconsin and senior forwards Joe Krabbenhoft and Marcus Landry will get huge lifts inside and be able to focus their attention on the seven-foot B.J. Mullens.

Evan Turner will get his points (23 last time against the Badgers), so the key for Wisconsin is limiting the production of his teammates.

The Badgers are used to making adjustments and finding a way to succeed. They’ve appeared in the Big Ten Championship game four times in the past five years, including two victories.

Here are some key elements Wisconsin must follow to reach the title bout this year.

Fluid offense

Several times this season the Badgers have gotten into prevent mode, trying to kill the clock while holding a marginal advantage.

It doesn’t work; Wisconsin has lost eight games this season in which it led in the second half.

The purpose of the swing offense is to keep the ball rotating at all times, because in these late-game situations the Badgers lack a go-to guy that can create and finish on his own.

Defensive rebounding

The defense is a given. The rebounding comes and goes.

With a notoriously slow-tempo offense that oftentimes is more parched for points than a traveler crossing the Sahara desert, the Badgers must prevent the opposition from getting second chance opportunities.

It didn’t happen Feb. 22 against the Spartans, who pulled down 11 offensive boards, including seven in the second half. A Wisconsin 12-point lead quickly flipped into an 11-point loss.

Six times the opponent has secured 10 or more fresh possessions courtesy of the glass. Five times the Badgers have lost.

Free Throws

All part of the Badger gameplan. Simple, really. More attempts from the stripe for Wisconsin mean more point-scoring opportunities and more stoppages in play. Then the other team can’t run the Badgers out of the building. The tempo is at the pace the Badgers prefer: Grandma driving on the road slow.

Feed the Post

Gone are the days of a Mike Wilkinson, Alando Tucker, or Brian Butch (on good days) when Wisconsin could dump the ball on the block and get an easy two from inside of 10 feet.

Doesn’t mean the Badgers can’t space the floor more and try.

Landry can hold his own down there. Finishing, for him, has been the problem.

Avoid Purdue

This one should be easy. The first time the two teams can meet is in the championship game.

You see, Purdue presents too many matchup problems for the smaller, less athletically inclined Badgers.

Robbie Hummel, who has never lost to UW, is much too quick and long for Landry to guard one-on-one and much too tall for Jason Bohannon or Trevon Hughes.

E’Twaun Moore is dangerous from all parts of the court, and JaJuan Johnson has turned into a solid post player and finisher.

Too boot, led by Chris Kramer, who is albeit slightly overrated, Purdue is among the best defensive teams in the conference and nationally.

Class Act: Wisconsin's Signing Day Deceptively Quiet

Kevin Hagstrom — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 01:51:48 -0500

Wisconsin does it again.

Alabama, LSU, USC, Ohio State, and even Michigan flexed their muscles off the field, announcing the signings of some of the biggest names in high school football.

The Badgers remained inconspicuous.

For the second consecutive year, rival Minnesota out-recruited Wisconsin, and a No. 43 national ranking is the Badgers' lowest since 2002, when they rounded out the top 50.

In years past, the unassuming nature by which Wisconsin recruited and signed players has worked. Two-star players like Brandon Williams and Jack Ikegwuonu developed into stars and future NFL draft picks. John Stocco and Mark Zalewski, both three-star recruits, were three-year starters.

Can the trend continue?

Not since Josh Oglesby in 2007 has Wisconsin brought in a five-star talent. Coming off a disappointing 7-6 finish—the team’s worst since a matching record in 2003—the perception might be that whatever the Badgers are doing off the field is no longer working.

Don’t be too quick to judge.

To understand Wisconsin football is to know that most, if not all, players are carefully and deliberately developed. It may take a few years to properly evaluate this year’s class.

Time may be good for the betterment of the team, but it stinks for fans.

A reliable quarterback seemed to be about the only need standing in the way of the Badgers and success in 2008. That, and a few more options at receiver and in the secondary.

Wisconsin signed four-star quarterback Curt Phillips in 2008 and brought in perhaps the best the program’s ever had at the position—even if he’s not nationally recognized as such — in Jon Budmayr. The three-star recruit from Woodstock, Ill., following the route Phillips took a year ago, is already enrolled at the UW and will participate in spring ball, which could put him on the fast track to being the next multi-year starter.

A last-minute commitment from Kraig Appleton (East St. Louis, Mo.) gave the Badgers much-needed size, speed, and depth at the receiver position. Appleton deliberated hard between Illinois and Wisconsin before settling on the Badgers Wednesday morning—hours before recruits were announced.

During his senior year, Appleton had 28 receptions for 657 yards and 10 touchdowns and recorded 42 catches for 900 yards and seven scores as a junior.

As for the secondary, no one from the class of ’08 has registered on sonar.

Don’t expect any of this year’s two-star class to contribute right away, either.

Aaron Henry, one of the surprise freshmen from 2007, will be a welcome sight this spring. The cornerback missed the entire 2008 season after tearing his ACL prior to the 2008 Outback Bowl and should replace the departed senior Allen Langford nicely.

Recruiting hasn’t been easy for Wisconsin the past couple years, not since the man made for the job, Henry Mason, was forced to leave the team following spinal surgery.

Only now are the Badgers are starting to regain their footing.

Running back Montee Ball (Wentville, Mo.), defensive ends Shelby Harris (Mequon, Wis.) and David Gilbert (Oakland Park, Fla.), and defensive tackle Jordan Kohout (Waupun, Wis.) round out the list of notable signees Wednesday.

Jacked Decision

Kevin Hagstrom — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 11:40:19 -0500

It kind of seemed inevitable that it would happen. Still, it doesn't make the reality any easier to stomach.

Vikings coach Brad Childress named Tarvaris Jackson the team's starter for 2009. The announcement doesn't come as a surprise as Jackson excelled while Gus Frerotte was sidelined with a lower back injury and has long been labeled the franchise's future, mainly because of the time Childress has invested in developing the 2006 draft pick.

The team likely won't give Matt Cassel, or another decent free agent to be quarterback a look. The future starts (and stops) with Jackson.

As a starter to close the season, he led the Vikings to a 2-1 record and came off the bench to bring the team back from a first-half deficit against the Lions in Week 14.
Against Arizona, Jackson took on the role of a Vietnam platoon leader. He astutely and calmly dissected every defensive scheme and made precise decisions when called upon, finishing with four touchdowns on 11-of-17 passing.

When the Vikings needed a play-maker against the Giants in Week 17 to assure a playoff berth, Jackson hit receiver Bernard Berrian on a 54-yard touchdown to put the team within striking distance and converted two key third downs to set up the game-winning field goal by Ryan Longwell.

Jackson consistently moved the ball versus the Atlanta Falcons, but costly turnovers proved the team's undoing.

With the outwardly collective and heroic comes the internal fear and post-traumatic stress.

Most of the mistakes made in the Atlanta game were by Jackson. He fumbled three times, losing two. No interceptions is perceived as fantastic, but if the only throws made are tosses out-of-bounds or short drops across the middle, not so much.

The point is, Jackson continues to play scared. That means not taking chances.
There are also the poor reads and indecision that lead to turnovers and loss of downs in other situations (think the end zone interception in the first half of the Giants game).
He learned to cope slightly better than to start the season and has become more comfortable with the offense, no doubt.

The Vikings are (and will be consistent) playoff contenders with him, but never super threats. With a deafening crowd (now that the Metrodome finally sold out for Sunday's game), a talented defense, offensive line, and Adrian Peterson to help, Jackson could very well be fine against the Eagles.

Sooner or later, however, his mind will catch up to his throws.

Breaking Down The League Of Unextradordinary Gentlemen

Kevin Hagstrom — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 08:14:45 -0500

That was easy. Now comes the hard part.

Cliff Lee was a lock to win the AL CY Young from day one, though no one knew it at the time, and Evan Longoria was the clear-cut favorite for American League Rookie of the Year despite missing five weeks with a wrist injury. No one was going to deny Joe Maddon from the league's manager of the year honor for the job he did with the Rays, but who should win AL MVP?

The league rarely embraces a talented player on a lousy team.

Numbers are important.

The bigger they are, the likelier an MVP awaits. And a strong August and September tend to sit heavier on the mind of the voters than a strong May and June.

No brainers, really.

None of the playoff-bound teams had anyone really outstanding, carrying them not only down the stretch, but for the entire season. And as previously stated, the good players the other teams didn’t have a “Wow, this deserves some credit” year that A-Rod had in 2003.

It took some deliberation, but I came up with a list of potential candidates.

The breakdown will go as follows: "Frontrunners" followed by "You'd Think So, But No Way" and "Blew It" before finishing with "My Pick."

Frontrunners

Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins
.328 AVG, 85 RBI, .413 OBP

Why He's Deserving
Mauer led the AL in batting average for the second time in three seasons reducing the gap between a catcher winning the award from 76 to one. Cool Joe was even better in pressure situations (two outs with runners in scoring position) batting at a .361 clip. Defensively, he committed three errors and threw out 36.3 percent of potential base stealers, third best in the league.

He mentored an inexperienced rotation heading into the season and developed it into a formidable fivesome, propelling the Twins to within a game of the playoffs when preseason expectations were on par with a blind date.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
Numbers talk. Mauer hit nine home runs. Statistically, he wasn't the best player on his team—a distinction held by first baseman Justin Morneau (who would have made the list if not for a 1-for-20 conclusion to the season when the team was vying for the AL Central title).

When it comes down to voting, the quality of the team is also considered. The Twins nearly made the postseason. Since 1990, only Alex Rodriguez, in 2003, and Cal Ripken, in 1991, have won the AL MVP and not made the playoffs.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox
.326 AVG, 17 HRs, 83 RBI, 20 SB

Why He's Deserving
Injuries riddled the Red Sox lineup this season and Manny Ramirez left for Los Angeles. Pedroia was the hanger that held the lineup in place. He hit for power—slugging .547 after the All-Star Break—average and stole bases. The 5'9", 180 pound second baseman batted cleanup a few times. He played Gold Glove defense. And don't forget, the Red Sox played into October.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
The Red Sox are deep. If Pedroia didn't carry the team someone else would've. Sure, David Ortiz missed a few months and never fully regained his swing. J.D. Drew missed the stretch run. Mike Lowell was in and out of the lineup. Ramirez was gone by August. But the Sox got Jason Bay. Kevin Youkilis was always there.

A team full of Brandon Inge's and Adam Everett's could still win games. Jon Lester and Dice-K were brilliant. The backend was good, too, masking an average season from ace Josh Beckett.It all amounts to Pedroia having a hard time standing alone as the guy.

Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers
.304 AVG, 32 HRs, 130 RBI

Why He's Deserving
The feel-good story in baseball this season, Hamilton unearthed his five-tool potential. By the All-Star break, Hamilton was a serious Triple Crown threat, batting .310 to go with 21 dingers and 95 RBI. Hamilton exhibited his Zeus-like strength at the Home Run Derby. The Big Brown of baseball's power show, and other Derby, belted a record-shaking 28 first round home runs, including 13 in a row.

At season's end, Hamilton led the league in RBI and placed in the top 12 in home runs and average. Youkilis and Aubrey Huff were the only other two hitters to finish in the top 12 of all three categories.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
He played for the Texas Rangers, a ballclub that owned the worst team ERA in baseball. Not Hamilton's fault, but it contributes to an average 79-83 record, which hurts.
Hamilton didn't play any games that counted, games that other candidates experienced. The pressure of a race didn't exist, making the game easier to play.

When Ian Kinsler was in the lineup, Hamilton was unbelievable. After Kinsler went down with a sports hernia injury, Hamilton became mortal. Kinsler was the team's catalyst—just as important as the one who drives him home.

Carlos Pena, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
.247 AVG, 31 HRs, 102 RBI

Why He's Deserving
Evan Longoria may be the Rays' MVP of the future, but Pena is head-above leader in Tampa Bay.His power came alive in the second half—the one that counts—and his defense is always there. Pena batted .247, but he finished second among hitters in the American League in Wins Probability Added—a statistic developed to see how valuable a player is in tight situations by determining, as you might guess, the number of games he wins during a season.

Lifting the franchise off the couch after 10 years of watching others succeed, Pena not only helped the Rays to a playoff appearance, he brought a World Series appearance to St. Petersburg.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
His average. Pena added four-plus wins to the team's record. OK. The last time a hitter won the MVP award with a sub-.250 average was, well, never. Roger Maris batted .269 in 1961. He also hit a then-record 61 home runs that year. Sorry Pena.

You'd Think So, But No Way

Francisco Rodriguez, Closer, Los Angeles Angels
62 Saves, 2.24 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 77Ks/68.1 IP

Rodriguez is the new single-season record-holder for saves in a season with 62. Much has been said about him receiving votes, possibly taking home the award for closing down over half of the best team in baseball's wins.

Hold up.

Saves are one of the most overrated statistics in baseball. A late-innings reliever gets a "hold" for securing a three-run or fewer lead. Same concept as a save, but 2008 hold leader Carlos Marmol isn't spoken of in the light Rodriguez is.

No one cares.

For some reason saves seem like a magical number. Yes, it does calibrate the number of times a pitcher has held onto a "close" lead in the ninth inning. Without good starting pitching and defense and mediocre hitting, games wouldn't be close enough for a closer to have value.Any votes Rodriguez receives should be divided among his teammates.

Never mind 22 of his saves came with a three-run cushion and 21 more with a pair of tallies to spare. He wasn't the best pitcher in the American League—undoubtedly held by Lee, who won the CY Young Award—let alone best closer in baseball.

That doesn't sound like an MVP.

Rodriguez saved 62 ballgames. He blew seven. Brad Lidge saved 41. He blew zero. OK, Brad Lidge pitched in the National League.

When it comes to WPA, Rodriguez isn't No. 1 among AL closers. Mariano Rivera is, followed by Joakim Soria, Bobby Jenks, then Rodriguez.

Put the MVP talk to rest, Rodriguez's season was memorable, just not award-winning.

Blew It

Carlos Quentin, OF, Chicago White Sox
.288 Avg, 36 HRs, 100 RBI, .956 SLG

Without a doubt, the hands down winner of this race heading into September. He then decided to get angry over one measly pop-up against the best pitcher of 2008, Cliff Lee, punched his bat and broke his wrist. Season over. Although his numbers stack up to league leaders Alex Rodriguez, Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera, AND his team made the playoffs, he wasn't there for the stretch run, diminishing his value.

My Pick

It's got to be Mauer. A catcher can change the game both offensively and defensively by calling a good game. Mauer is arguably the best there is at both.He played games that mattered in September, missing the postseason by a one-game playoff and one Nick Blackburn mistake (the Twins starter gave up a home run to Jim Thome in the 1-0 loss).
Thanks to Mauer's .413 OBP, Morneau was given the opportunity to drive in runs, which he did.For those not sold on his downright lousy power (nine roundtrippers), Mauer led the league in WPA. Simply, on a team that didn't have dominant hitters around him other than Morneau, hence the 85 RBI, Mauer radiated greatness.