Bleacher Report - Articles by Crayton

Mountain West Inching Closer to BCS Collision

Crayton — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 20:22:22 -0500

After finishing undefeated—yet outside of the National Championship Game for the second year in a row, the Mountain West champion should feel slighted.

But hope is around the corner.

The rules of the BCS allow for a seventh conference to join the ranks of those automatically qualifying as early as the 2012 season. After an unprecedented season of success last year, the conference has somehow managed to out do itself this year.

The Qualification Criteria

There are three criteria that are measured by the BCS to determine if a conference is deserving of sending their champion automatically to the BCS:

1) Number of BCS Top 25 teams.

2) The rank of the highest of these teams.

3) The average computer ranking of all teams in the conference.

Although the computer ranking has slid from a 0.09 value in 2008 to a 0.02 value this year (scale -1.00 to + 1.00), the escalation of the highest ranked team from No. 6 Utah in 2008 to No. 4 TCU this year has more than compensated.

In fact, the entire BCS value of the Mountain West has risen from 0.496 in 2008 to 0.500 this year, and now sits right at the edge of BCS inclusion.

The evaluation period stretches from 2008 through the 2011 season so the conference is only halfway there; and, if they continue their upward trend and/or add a fourth Top 25 BCS team (from within or without) they will be the newest member of the BCS elite.

Just The Facts Ma'am

The tune whistled last year was that the conference got lucky. The Pac-10 was having a down year and the Mountain West feasted. This year, however, the conference stayed on track, even with a resurgent Pac-10.

The conference probably benefited by scoring some victories on the Big 12 and ACC, the two BCS conferences which slipped in their ratings.

However, the job is far from done.

If the Mountain West duplicates their performance from these past two years over the next two then they will come up inches short, 0.498 . The appearance of BYU, Utah, and TCU in the BCS these past two years just does not outweigh the sluggish output of the other six teams in the conference.

By current projections there are two ways in which the conference could put its rating over 0.500 for good.

The first is by expanding their BCS presence from within. At the current rate, three teams are finishing the year in the BCS top 25. If, in either of the next two years, a fourth team places, say, Air Force, then the Mountain West will be in.

The second option, and perhaps the more secure option is to add Boise State to the conference. The variables are more complex, but if only two of BYU, Utah, TCU, and Boise State stay in the Top 25 and get at least one team in the Top 15, then the expanded Mountain West will be in.

A third option would be having two more stellar years like these. It seems a tall order, but that is what we said last year.

The Marbles

It may seem silly to some that an automatic qualification spot is such a big deal. Any time the Mountain West team has qualified for a BCS at large bid in the last five years they have been accepted.

But it is about money.

Right now, as TCU accepts the bid to the Fiesta Bowl, they will not enjoy the $17 million dollar pay-out that Georgia Tech, Cincinnati, Texas, or Oregon will be getting. They will share a measly $8 million with not only their conference but with all five conferences which do not have an automatic BCS bid.

Boise State's inclusion in the BCS marks the first time a BCS bowl has chosen a non-BCS team that had not been guaranteed a bid. Even if we treat all 55 non-BCS teams as one conference they will not be getting the $22 million which the SEC and Big Ten will be getting for sending two teams. No, these 55 teams will split $12 million dollars.

So, the Mountain West is playing for loads and loads of extra money in the future, money which can be used to upgrade sports facilities and bring a few more of the conference's teams up to BCS caliber.

What about Bob?

Here are the updated ratings of the other BCS conferences. Note, none of these conferences can have their AQ status removed until the cycle of seasons that runs from 2010 to 2013 concludes.

0.693 SEC

0.682 Big Twelve

0.573 Pac-10

0.571 Big Ten

0.519 Big East

0.514 ACC

The Final BCS Bowl Schedule Released

Crayton — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 20:41:28 -0500

It is Sunday Night and FOX has released the matchups for the BCS.

National Championship, January 7th

(No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Texas)

We could have banked on this matchup as soon as the Big Twelve Championship Game ended. Boy, how things would have changed if Nebraska had held on.

Rose Bowl, January 1st

(No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State)

This game was determined on Thursday when Oregon won a thriller against Oregon State. These two teams will matchup well in a traditional Rose Bowl.

Orange Bowl, January 1st

(No. 9 Georgia Tech vs. No. 10 Iowa)

The Fiesta Bowl passed on taking a Big Ten team and the Orange Bowl benefited. Georgia Tech, which completed an exciting victory over Clemson last night, should be slightly favored.

Fiesta Bowl, January 3rd

(No. 4 TCU vs. No. 6 Boise State)

Boise State is coming back to the BCS and the Fiesta Bowl. Their opponent is not perennial Championship-contender Oklahoma, but TCU boasts one of the most balanced squads this year.

Sugar Bowl, January 5th

(No. 3 Cincinnati vs. No. 5 Florida)

Cincinnati succeeded in jumping TCU in the final BCS by the skin of a missed PAT. Perhaps the Florida offense can score some points on this Big East defense.

Conclusion

We will end up with two undefeated teams at the end of the season, both probably ending up in the Top Three. If Cincinnati defeats Florida as well, then all three of the top teams will be undefeated.

The Texas-Alabama game will determine a consensus champion but not an undisputed champion. The winners of the Fiesta and Sugar bowls will want their due; and, if TCU defeats Boise State, we might see Orrin Hatch return to Capitol Hill with a vengeance.

Remainder of the Top 25

No. 11 Virginia Tech

No. 12 LSU

No. 13 Penn State

No. 14 BYU

No. 15 Miami

No. 16 West Virginia

No. 17 Pittsburgh

No. 18 Oregon State

No. 19 Oklahoma State

No. 20 Arizona

No. 21 Stanford

No. 22 Nebraska

No. 23 Utah

No. 24 USC

No. 25 Wisconsin

A Taste Of 'Cane Sugar: Miami Makes The BCS

Crayton — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 17:39:06 -0500

The big news revealed tonight at eight o'clock will be that Alabama and Texas will face off against each other this January in Pasadena for the National Championship.

We already know this.

The questions still in our minds are: Which teams will be paired in the other four BCS bowls? The only facts known for certain are that Ohio State and Oregon will play in the Rose Bowl, while Georgia Tech will play in the Orange Bowl.

Two other teams, TCU and Cincinnati, are virtually guaranteed a spot by winning their conferences. Florida, Boise State, and either Iowa or Penn State are expected to be the three remaining BCS teams; but this is not certain, and the bowl to which they go is unknown.

Let us, therefore, examine the selection procedure. Remember, money is often a larger concern than "fairness."

Pick One (Sugar): By virtue of losing the top ranked team (Alabama), the Sugar Bowl gets the first at large choice. The obvious choice is the selection of Florida, another SEC team. While the large fan base of the Big Ten teams is appealing, Florida will attract more money here than elsewhere.

Pick Two (Fiesta): The Fiesta Bowl has no Big Twelve team to replace Texas, so they will be trying to get the most eyeballs on their game. A Big Ten team is a no-brainer and, rather than risk another bowl taking that team, will be selected first by the Fiesta Bowl. Because of the larger Iowa fan-base in Phoenix, the Hawkeyes will be selected.

Pick Three (Orange): The Orange Bowl already has one team, Georgia Tech, headed to Miami and now must select an opponent. The Nittany Lions would be a stellar choice, however with Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, no more than two teams from the Big Ten can head to the BCS. Undefeated Cincinnati is the next choice.

Pick Four (Fiesta): To pair with Iowa, the Fiesta has what amounts to a choice between TCU and Boise State. Boise State had an unforgettable 2007 Fiesta Bowl victory. Both teams are now undefeated and the last time either lost was when TCU defeated Boise State in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl. Only TCU is guaranteed a BCS bid, so it is they who will be chosen.

Pick Five (Sugar): While undefeated Boise State is the only team remaining in the FBS with less than two losses, the Sugar Bowl also has the choice of other teams in the BCS Top 14. Not looking forward to another SEC team being busted, the Sugar Bowl will eagerly look toward teams in BCS conferences and select the Miami Hurricanes.

The Sugar Bowl Matchup

Earlier this season, the Hurricanes were the talk of the nation. A dormant national-powerhouse was re-emerging. Nationally televised victories over Florida State, Oklahoma, and Georgia Tech accelerated the Hurricanes to No. 8 in the nation.

An overtime loss to division champ Clemson combined with more ACC cannibalism soon dropped the Hurricanes and other ACC teams from the title picture (Virginia Tech was ranked No. 4, already with a loss).

The Heisman hype of Jacory Harris will be revisited as he faces off against Heisman champion Tim Tebow. The last two ACC opponents the Gators faced(2009 Florida State, 2008 Miami) were both held to 10 points or less.

This year's Hurricane team, however, has scored at least 21 points in every game this year—a feat the Gators barely halved (13 points) in their only two games against ranked opponents.

This matchup will also serve as a state championship as the teams both beat Florida State this year and will compete for the Florida Cup, of which Miami has won three of the last four.

If fans are afraid that Florida will give a performance reminiscent of last year's uninspired effort of Alabama against Utah; then expect the Sugar Bowl to give the Gators something to play for, an in-state rival from a respected conference.

FBS Playoff Series: 14 Teams

Crayton — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 18:12:43 -0500

The Failed Playoff

One of the problems with the playoff proposal released by the Mountain West Conference last year was the relegation of the lowest two of the 10 BCS teams to a fifth BCS bowl. This year, that would likely mean Iowa or Penn State facing off against the lowest ranked BCS champion (probably the ACC Champ or Pittsburgh) in the Cotton Bowl.

This would be known as the Toilet Bowl of the BCS. Last year, Cincinnati and Virginia Tech faced off in the least watched BCS game ever. Would the powers that be really want to make that an annual occurrence? Would any bowl choose to forgo its traditional matchups to match two disappointments?

The Cotton Bowl would certainly not give up its lucrative SEC-Big 12 matchup to bring in small, disenchanted fan-bases from the Northeast. In this iteration of the FBS Playoff Series we will determine how to improve the MWC playoff proposal.

BCS Expansion

Some have said that any playoff that incorporates less than the current 10 BCS teams is a non-starter. This is true only so far as those 10 teams, at least, play in a BCS bowl, if not the playoff.

The rub is that if you are going to separate playoff BCS from non-playoff BCS, then you will need to have more than one non-playoff BCS bowl. One way to accomplish that would be to simply create a four-team playoff with the six remaining teams put in other BCS bowls.

The alternative is to expand the field from 10 to 14 teams and make the playoff three rounds. With a larger field, those non-playoff BCS games will no longer feel like consolation bowls.

A pay grade can also be established between the two BCS tiers so that weaker BCS conferences will only get the big payday if they are one of the eight playoff teams, and so that more teams from non-BCS conferences (TCU, Boise State, AND BYU) can gain spots in the second tier of the BCS.

Team Selection

Eight automatic bids are available to enter the BCS. The champions of each of the six AQ conferences will gain a bid; the top non-AQ conference champion gains an automatic bid if in the Top 14; and Notre Dame will gain an automatic bid if in the Top 14. All other teams in the Top 14 are eligible for at large selection.

Of the six to eight teams receiving automatic bids (there are seven this year: 6 AQs and TCU), the top six will be included in the first-tier playoff BCS bowls. The next two highest ranked teams, whether at large or with an automatic bid are also placed in the playoff.

The second-tier bowls will try and match teams from traditional conferences (i.e. Cotton Bowl with the SEC and Big 12). The two-team-per-conference rule still applies to the BCS, except that a third team from the larger conferences may play if both division winners are included.

Bowl Matchups

The first-tier bowls will keep their traditional host conferences and the remaining teams will be paired by ranking. If the Pac-10 and Big Ten both send teams, then the Rose Bowl will matchup teams from both conferences. Here is the outlook this year, with one week to go:

No. 1 Florida vs. No. 8 Boise State (Sugar Bowl)
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 7 Alabama (Fiesta Bowl)
No. 3 TCU vs. No. 6 Cincinnati (Orange Bowl)
No. 4 Oregon vs. No. 5 Ohio State (Rose Bowl)

Note, the lowest BCS Champ (currently the ACC Champ) will not make the playoff unless it is ranked higher than the two at large teams, Boise State and Alabama (or the SEC championship game loser). Also, teams are shown here with seeds rather than by BCS rankings.

The second-tier bowls will then attempt to match teams from their traditional tie-ins. If there are not enough at large teams available, then the at large cutoff will be extended by four ranks to No. 18; but all eligible Top 14 teams must be chosen.

No. 13 LSU vs. No. 12 Va Tech (Cotton Bowl: SEC vs. Big XII)
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 10 Ga Tech (Citrus Bowl: Big Ten vs. ACC)
No. 14 BYU vs. *No. 18 USC (Sun Bowl: Pac-10 vs. Big East)
*No. 15 Pittsburgh and No. 16 Oregon State were also considered for the Sun Bowl

Conclusion

While three rounds of playoffs in January never were my cup of tea, the Mountain West Conference could have presented a better proposal.

When there is only one second-tier bowl, it is nearly impossible to spin it as anything other than a consolation game; created just to guarantee money. When there are six teams playing in the second tier, it becomes a satisfying reward.

This alteration to the MWC proposal expands the field and also provides the option of a pay grade, helping divvy out a more equitable bonus to conferences based upon performance.

Further Iterations of the FBS Playoff Series

Three Teams

Four Teams

Sixteen Teams

Rivalry Weekend Is Playoff Elimination Weekend

Crayton — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 13:15:12 -0500

If Texas, Florida, or Alabama lose this week, then they will most likely be thrown from the BCS title race. While some people stomp for a large, 16-team playoff; the truth is that under that format each of these teams might lose but would still ascend into such an expansive playoff, right...right?

Thanksgiving weekend is, for all intents and purposes, rivalry weekend. You have the Civil War, The Holy War, The Bedlam Series, the riveting Egg Bowl, and Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate.

The last thing these rivalry games need is one team resting their starters for the playoffs.

This year, the Civil War between Oregon and Oregon State would have tremendous playoff implications. The winner would gain a spot in essentially a play-in round, while the loser would have to settle for the Holiday Bowl, or worse.

Perhaps all games on rivalry weekend should be elimination games.

Imagine, if Florida loses to Florida State then the Gators would be eliminated. Sure, they may fall only to No. 6 in the BCS, but they would be ineligible for an at large spot in the playoff and would take the back-seat in the SEC tie-breaker to 'Bama because of their loss.

The Playoff

So what would the race to a 16-team playoff look like this weekend? We will assume that every team's final regular season game will be played this week and that next week Conference Championship Games will be replaced by the first round of the playoffs.

To replace the Conference Championship Games, four regional tournaments (West, South, East, and North) of four teams will be held on campuses the first two weeks of December; the winners of which will ascend into two of the five BCS Games on Jan. 1.

Eleven conference champions and five at large teams will go into the playoff. Rivalry Week losses will trump head-to-head in breaking conference ties and no team which loses on rivalry week will be eligible for an at large bid.

A maximum of three teams from each conference will be put in one of the regional tournaments so as not to monopolize the region. Here are the potential brackets:

(note: 30 teams are listed as hopeful; a full, extra playoff round with Georgia Tech already assured a playoff spot)

The West Regional Contenders

No. 3 Texas
The Longhorns have traversed their schedule unscathed and with the top seed in the West; but they face a tough rival in Texas A&M. A loss to the Aggies and an Oklahoma State victory over Oklahoma would force a tie for the Big 12 Championship, which the Longhorns would lose and be eliminated by virtue of their Rivalry Loss.

No. 6 Boise St
The Broncos have also gone undefeated through the season, except against an arguably weaker schedule and currently hold on to a first round home game. This week's elimination game against Nevada will decide which team will represent the WAC in the playoff.

No. 8 Oregon
The Ducks lead the Pac-10 but face elimination against Oregon State who can snatch the conference title away from them. If both Oregon and Boise State make the playoffs, the two teams would not be paired in the first round. If Boise State or Texas slip then the Ducks will find themselves with a first round home game.

No. 12 Oklahoma State
The Cowboys have a firm grip on an at large bid and can even grab the Big 12 title if they show up against rival Oklahoma and Texas slips against A&M. If both the Longhorns and Cowboys make the playoffs they will not be paired in the first round.

The West Regional Hopefuls

No. 16 Oregon State
The Beavers control their own destiny and can take Oregon's spot in the playoff with a victory over the Ducks this weekend in what amounts to a "Round of 32" game.

No. 20 USC
The Trojans need a lot of help to make the playoffs should they defeat rival UCLA this weekend. Four of the following Eight teams must lose: Florida, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma St, Virginia Tech, LSU, Clemson, and Miami

No. 22 California
The Bruins played their rivalry game a week early and are have one more game against Washington. If USC also losses then California would make the playoffs from the longest of odds.

(7-0 WAC) Nevada
The Wolfpack can jump into the playoffs with a victory over Boise State and the WAC crown. It will be a tough game and Nevada will most likely play at Texas in the first round.

C-USA / Sun Belt Champ

If the Big 12 does not send two teams to the playoff then expect the westernmost of the Conference USA Champion or Sun Belt Champion to join the Western Regional Playoffs.

The South Regional Contenders

No. 1 Florida
The Gators have built up an impressive resume this year but face almost sure elimination if they lose against rival Florida State. Only a simultaneous loss by Alabama will save the Gators.

No. 2 Alabama
The Crimson Tide have also gone undefeated but still must defeat rival Auburn this Friday to make the playoffs. Otherwise they will have secured a first round home game against Troy.

(7-0 Sun Belt) Troy
The Trojans have almost clinched the Sun Belt and can do so with a win against Louisiana Lafayette or with a Middle Tennessee loss. The Trojans are looking to play at cross-state powerhouse Alabama in the first round.

(6-1 C-USA) East Carolina
The Pirates are the only Conference USA team in control of their own destiny. A win against playoff hopeful Southern Miss will clinch the conference and a playoff spot for the Pirates.

The South Regional Hopefuls

No. 15 LSU
The Tigers are the highest ranked team not yet in playoff position and play the Arkansas Razorbacks in the Battle for the Golden Boot this weekend. The Tigers can take the place of Alabama or Florida if one of those teams loses or they may edge out the Westernmost C-USA or Sun Belt champion if Texas or Oklahoma State lose.

No. 23 Houston
The Cougars are a game behind the East Carolina Pirates and need a victory over rival Rice and an East Carolina loss to secure the Conference USA title.

(6-1 Sun Belt) Middle Tennessee State
The Blue Raiders play Louisiana Monroe this weekend but need not only a victory but also a Troy loss to find their way into the playoff

(5-2 C-USA) Southern Mississippi
The Golden Eagles can play their way to a tie in the conference against East Carolina but will lose the tie-breaker unless Houston loses as well.

The East Regional Contenders

No. 5 Cincinnati
The Bearcats are riding an undefeated season into their season finale against Pittsburgh. The Bearcats are holding on to a top seed and two home playoff games but will lose it all with a loss to Pittsburgh.

No. 7 Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets have already clinched the ACC, the ONLY team guaranteed a playoff spot with a game remaining, so theirs is the rare instance when the rivalry game against Georgia does not have overt playoff implications. Even a loss to the Bulldogs may not steal Georgia Tech's first round home game.

No. 15 Virginia Tech
The Hokies are holding on to the last at large spot. Their rivalry game against Virginia should pose little problem, so expect Virginia Tech to play at the Big East champion in the first round.

(7-0 MAC) Central Michigan / Temple
The Chippewas and Owls are both tied for the MAC lead without a head-to-head matchup to break the tie.

If one of the teams stumbles this weekend against Northern Illinois and Ohio respectively then the MAC representative will be obvious, but it may be the polls which ultimately determine which team will ascend to the playoffs and play at Georgia Tech in December.

The East Regional Hopefuls

No. 9 Pittsburgh
The Panthers control their own destiny with their season finale against Cincinnati and a home playoff game against the ACC runner-up. Expect in years future, without regular season games in December, that Pittsburgh will conclude its season in the Backyard Brawl against West Virginia.

No. 17 Miami
The Hurricanes can slip in if a second at large team, perhaps Virginia Tech, stumbles. Miami begins a six-year series against USF this weekend in what should shape up into a solid rivalry.

No. 18 Clemson
The Tigers may have something to say about Miami getting the last at-large spot and will showcase their ACC-Atlantic champion team against the rival South Carolina Gamecocks. Whichever team between the Hurricanes and Tigers is ranked higher may end up with the last at large bid. Clemson has already played and defeated Miami in October.

(6-1 MAC) Ohio
The Bobcats actually have a shot at the playoff as long as they defeat Temple this weekend and Central Michigan drops its regular season finale. By virtue of their Rivalry Week Victory, Ohio will ascend into the playoff at Georgia Tech the following week.

The North Regional Contenders

No. 4 TCU
The Horned Frogs are undefeated thus far but need a victory against lowly New Mexico to stay in the playoffs and keep their top spot and two home playoff games.

No. 10 Ohio State
The Buckeyes have completed their season a week early, secured the Big Ten title outright, and earned a home playoff game. Expect next year, as the Big Ten adds a bye week, that the Michigan game will be moved to rivalry weekend.

No. 11 Iowa
The Hawkeyes have also secured an at large spot in the Northern Region by concluding their season a week early and will likely play at the Mountain West Champion.

No. 13 Penn State
The Nittany Lions have secured their playoff spot and will likely be the team chosen from Iowa to play in a rematch (in Columbus) against Ohio State in the first round.

The North Regional Hopefuls

No. 19 BYU
The Cougars will find themselves in a Holy War for the MWC title and playoff spot if TCU loses this weekend. BYU's lone conference loss is to the Horned Frogs and the tie will be broken by TCU's Rivalry Week Loss.

No. 21 Utah
The Utes may squeeze their way into a second straight Mountain West title with a victory over BYU and a TCU loss, but the chips are stacked against them as this week's game is played in Provo.

College Football Playoff Prediction Series: Week 12

Crayton — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:47:00 -0500

Again there is little change since last week 's games. LSU's inexplicable loss to Ole Miss makes the Tigers the biggest team to fall. In most larger playoffs Penn State has moved in to replace the Bayou Bengals.

The Pac-10 title comes down to the Civil War between Oregon and Oregon State. Ohio State and Iowa played last week for the Big Ten title. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh will play for the Big East title.

These three games, combined with the Championship games of the ACC, Big 12, and SEC, have set up what could be considered a playoff. Unfortunately, only two of these six champions (eight, including TCU and Boise State) will play for the title.

East Carolina takes the lead of Conference USA as the only team with one loss. Southern Miss can take the lead away by defeating East Carolina next week, but that would require Houston to also lose to Rice.

Unfortunately, last week's poll results were flushed, so this week's playoff order will remain unchanged, except for the absence of my favorite playoff, the Add One playoff. Stay tuned for some special playoff-related articles next week.

The Poll

If you have proposals that you'd like displayed next week, then link to them or describe them in the comments section. Up to two may be added for each new iteration of this series.

Each week, there will also be a poll for whichever proposal makes the most sense. The playoff with the least amount of support may not appear next week, at my discretion.

Enjoy the playoffs below, given in an order considering last week's vote.

The Playoffs

Daniel's Playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; January Final Four at neutral sites)

East Carolina @ No. 1 Florida
No. 9 Pittsburgh @ No. 8 Oregon

No. 13 Penn State @ No. 4 TCU
No. 12 Oklahoma St @ No. 5 Cincinnati

Troy @ No. 2 Alabama
No. 10 Ohio State @ No. 7 Georgia Tech

Temple @ No. 3 Texas
No. 11 Iowa @ No. 6 Boise State

Crayton's Playoff (top conference champions in BCS Top Five and top at-larges in playoff)

New Year's Bowls

No. 1 Florida/Alabama-No. 4 Cincinnati (Sugar Bowl)
No. 2 Texas-No. 3 TCU (Rose Bowl)

Add Two Playoff (top four at-larges play for two BCS spots, like CCGs)

Dec. 5 Games

No. 6 Boise State-No. 12 Oklahoma State (Western play-in game)
No. 9 Pittsburgh-No. 11 Iowa (Eastern play-in game)

The 10th and final BCS spot goes to the highest-ranked team not yet in a BCS bowl.

Current BCS Playoff

BCS Bowls

No. 1 Florida-No. 3 Texas (BCS Championship)
No. 8 Oregon-No. 10 Ohio State (Rose Bowl)
No. 7 Ga Tech-No. 5 Cincinnati (Orange Bowl)
No. 12 Oklahoma St-No. 4 TCU (Fiesta Bowl)
No. 2 Alabama-No. 11 Iowa (Sugar Bowl)

Expanded MWC Playoff (eight-team playoff beginning Jan. 1)

BCS Bowl Quarterfinals (rankings modified to seedings)

No. 1 Florida-No. 8 Boise State (Sugar Bowl)
No. 2 Alabama-No. 7 Oregon (Rose Bowl)
No. 3 Texas-No. 6 Cincinnati (Fiesta Bowl)
No. 4 TCU-No. 5 Georgia Tech (Orange Bowl)

Second-Tier BCS Bowls

No. 15 LSU-No. 12 Oklahoma State (Cotton Bowl)
No. 13 Penn State-No. 9 Pittsburgh (Sun Bowl)
No. 14 Virginia Tech-No. 10 Ohio State (Citrus Bowl)

Regional Playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; next round in bowl games)

West Region Games (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 Oregon @ No. 1 Texas
No. 3 Oklahoma St @ No. 2 Boise State

South Region Games (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 E Carolina @ No. 1 Florida
No. 3 Troy @ No. 2 Alabama

East Region Games (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 Temple @ No. 1 Cincy
No. 3 Pittsburgh @ No. 2 Ga Tech

North Region Games (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 Iowa @ No. 1 TCU
No. 3 Penn State @ No. 2 Ohio State

Playoff Proposal Graveyard

Five-Team playoff

Crayton C playoff

Tyler's playoff

Add One Playoff

College Football Playoff Prediction Series: Week 11

Crayton — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 21:29:36 -0500

Last Week

Nothing much has changed at the top of the BCS Standings since last week . Ohio State defeated Iowa in overtime to claim the Big Ten title, and a trip into our eight team playoff.

Iowa is not out, however, as they can still vie against Penn State for a likely second Big Ten BCS berth.

USC took a mighty fall this past week to the Stanford Cardinal, dropping out of all of the playoffs. Oklahoma State has now slid into the larger playoffs in place of the ailing Trojans.

The Houston Cougars were upset by the Knights of Central Florida (my brother's school) and the Conference USA lead now falls to the (6-4) Southern Methodist Mustangs.

The "Expanded MWC" proposal took three times its share of the votes last week and moved up a spot.

I was the only one–again–who voted for the Add One playoff, but that was one more than the votes for Tyler's playoff, which has been removed.

The Poll

If you have proposals that you'd like displayed next week, then link to them or describe them in the comments section. Up to two may be added for each new iteration of this series.

Each week, there will also be a poll for whichever proposal makes the most sense. The playoff with the least amount of support may not appear next week, at my discretion.

Enjoy the playoffs below, given in an order considering last week's vote.

The Playoffs

Daniel's Playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; January Final Four at neutral sites)

SMU @ No. 1 Florida
No. 9 Pittsburgh @ No. 8 LSU

No. 13 Iowa @ No. 4 TCU
No. 11 Oregon @ No. 5 Cincinnati

Troy @ No. 2 Alabama
No. 10 Ohio State @ No. 7 Georgia Tech

Temple @ No. 3 Texas
No. 12 Oklahoma St @ No. 6 Boise State

Crayton's Playoff (top conference champions in BCS Top Five and top at-larges in playoff)

New Year's Bowls
No. 1 Florida/Alabama-No. 4 Cincinnati (Sugar Bowl)
No. 2 Texas-No. 3 TCU (Rose Bowl)

Add Two Playoff (top four at-larges play for two BCS spots, like CCGs)

Dec. 5 Games
No. 6 Boise State-No. 12 Oklahoma State (western play-in game)
No. 8 LSU-No. 9 Pittsburgh (eastern play-in game)

The 10th and final BCS spot goes to the highest-ranked team not yet in a BCS bowl.

Current BCS Playoff

BCS Bowls
No. 1 Florida-No. 3 Texas (BCS Championship)
No. 11 Oregon-No. 10 Ohio State (Rose Bowl)
No. 7 Ga Tech-No. 5 Cincinnati (Orange Bowl)
No. 12 Oklahoma St-No. 4 TCU (Fiesta Bowl)
No. 2 Alabama-No. 13 Iowa (Sugar Bowl)

Expanded MWC Playoff (eight-team playoff beginning Jan. 1)

BCS Bowl Quarterfinals (rankings modified to seedings)
No. 1 Florida-No. 8 Boise State (Sugar Bowl)
No. 2 Alabama-No. 7 Ohio State (Rose Bowl)
No. 3 Texas-No. 6 Cincinnati (Fiesta Bowl)
No. 4 TCU-No. 5 Georgia Tech (Orange Bowl)

Second Tier BCS Bowls
No. 8 LSU-No. 12 Oklahoma State (Cotton Bowl)
No. 11 Oregon-No. 9 Pittsburgh (Sun Bowl)
No. 15 Virginia Tech-No. 13 Iowa (Citrus Bowl)

Regional Playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; next round in bowl games)

West Region Games (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 Oregon @ No. 1 TCU
No. 3 SMU @ No. 2 Boise State

South Region Games (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 Temple @ No. 1 Texas
No. 3 Oklahoma St @ No. 2 Ga Tech

East Region Games (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 LSU @ No. 1 Florida
No. 3 Troy @ No. 2 Alabama

North Region Games (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 Iowa @ No. 1 Cincinnati
No. 3 Pittsburgh @ No. 2 Ohio State

Add One Playoff (top two teams still play in NC; another high-profile BCS play-in game added)

Dec. 5 Games

No. 1 Florida-No. 2 Alabama (SEC Championship Game)
No. 3 Texas-(un-ranked) Nebraska (Big 12 Championship Game)
No. 4 TCU-No. 8 LSU (BCS play-in Game)

Playoff Proposal Graveyard

Five-Team playoff

Crayton C playoff

Tyler's playoff

College Football Playoff Predictions: Week 10

Crayton — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 18:07:01 -0500

Some top quality teams fell this week. Well, they at least lost. LSU somehow avoided the fall and moved up a spot from No. 9 to No. 8 in the BCS.

The teams behind the Texas and the Alabama/Florida combo keep dancing around each other in the standings. This week, TCU replaces Iowa in the four-team playoff. GA Tech capitalized on the Oregon loss and sneaked into the eight-team playoff.

Despite losses in conference by Iowa and Oregon last week, those two teams are still headed for a collision in the Rose Bowl. The Iowa-Ohio State game next week and the Oregon-Arizona game the following week will be conference-deciding games, presuming those four teams take care of business otherwise.

The makeup of the larger playoffs has not changed, except for a few positioning moves. Houston, Utah, and now Miami are trying to make their way into consideration for these playoffs as well as at-large BCS eligibility.

The list of playoffs changes only a little as the regional playoff edged Tyler's playoff by two votes.

(first two rounds on campuses in early December; January Final Four at neutral sites)

Troy @ No. 1 Florida
No. 9 USC @ No. 8 LSU

No. 13 Oregon @ No. 4 TCU
No. 11 Ohio State @ No. 5 Cincinnati

Temple @ No. 2 Alabama
No. 10 Iowa @ No. 7 Georgia Tech

No. 15 Houston @ No. 3 Texas
No. 12 Pittsburgh @ No. 6 Boise State

Crayton's Playoff

(top conference champions in BCS Top Five and top at-larges in playoff)

New Year's Bowls

No. 1 Florida/Alabama-No. 4 Cincinnati (Sugar Bowl)
No. 2 Texas-No. 3 TCU (Rose Bowl)

Add Two Playoff

(top four at-larges play for two BCS spots, like CCGs)

Dec. 5 Games

No. 6 Boise State-No. 11 Ohio State (western play-in game)
No. 8 LSU-No. 9 USC (eastern play-in game)

The 10th and final BCS spot goes to the highest-ranked team not yet in a BCS bowl.

Current BCS Playoff

BCS Bowls

No. 1 Florida-No. 3 Texas (BCS Championship)
No. 13 Oregon-No. 10 Iowa (Rose Bowl)
No. 7 Ga Tech-No. 11 Ohio State (Orange Bowl)
No. 9 USC-No. 4 TCU (Fiesta Bowl)
No. 2 Alabama-No. 5 Cincinnati (Sugar Bowl)

Regional Playoff

(first two rounds on campuses in early December; next round in bowl games)

West Region Games

(winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 Oregon @ No. 1 TCU
No. 3 USC @ No. 2 Boise State

South Region Games

(winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 Temple @ No. 1 Texas
No. 3 Houston @ No. 2 Ga Tech

East Region Games

(winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 LSU @ No. 1 Florida
No. 3 Troy @ No. 2 Alabama

North Region Games

(winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 Ohio State @ No. 1 Cincinnati
No. 3 Pittsburgh @ No. 2 Iowa

Expanded MWC Playoff

(eight-team playoff beginning Jan. 1)

BCS Bowl Quarterfinals

(rankings modified to seedings)

No. 1 Florida-No. 8 Boise State (Sugar Bowl)
No. 2 Alabama-No. 7 Iowa (Rose Bowl)
No. 3 Texas-No. 6 Cincinnati (Fiesta Bowl)
No. 4 TCU-No. 5 Ga Tech (Orange Bowl)

Second Tier BCS Bowls

No. 8 LSU-No. 9 USC (Cotton Bowl)
No. 13 Oregon-No. 12 Pittsburgh (Sun Bowl)
No. 14 Miami-No. 11 Ohio State (Citrus Bowl)

Tyler's Playoff

(eight automatic bids; top eight teams pick opponents for each week)

Teams with First-Round Picks

No. 1 Florida (SEC Champion)
No. 2 Alabama (At-Large No. 1)
No. 3 Texas (Big 12 Champion)
No. 4 TCU (Mountain West Champion)
No. 5 Cincinnati (Big East Champion)
No. 6 Boise State (Mid Major Champion)
No. 7 Georgia Tech (ACC Champion)
No. 8 LSU (At-Large No. 2)

Teams from Which To Be Selected

(Conference matchups are disallowed the first round)

No. 9 USC (At-Large No. 3)
No. 10 Iowa (Big Ten Champion)
No. 11 Ohio State (At-Large No. 4)
No. 12 Pittsburgh (At-Large No. 5)
No. 13 Oregon (Pac-10 Champion)
No. 14 Miami (At-Large No. 6)
No. 15 Houston (At-Large No. 7)
No. 16 Utah (At-Large No. 8)

Add One Playoff

(top two teams still play in NC; another high-profile BCS play-in game added)

Dec. 5 Games

No. 1 Florida-No. 2 Alabama (SEC Championship Game)
No. 3 Texas-(un-ranked) Kansas St (Big 12 Championship Game)
No. 4 TCU-No. 8 LSU (BCS play-in Game)

Playoff Proposal Graveyard

Five-Team playoff

Crayton C playoff

College Football Playoff Prediction Series: Week Nine

Crayton — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:30:00 -0500

Oregon has taken the Pac-10 by storm and has supplanted USC as the highest ranked team in the conference. Texas held off Oklahoma State with ease in a battle for the Big 12 lead. In small conference news, Troy defeated Louisiana Monroe for sole lead of the Sun Belt.

The top teams shifted a little with USC's loss. Cincinnati jumped into the four team playoff while Oregon took USC's place in the eight team playoff.

Virginia Tech fell out of the larger playoffs after its loss to UNC, to be replaced by Pittsburgh. Daniel's playoff and the Expanded MWC playoff garnered a quarter of last weeks' votes each. The playoff I always vote, the Add One playoff, for has now fallen to last.

Enjoy the playoffs below, given in an order considering last week's vote.

The Playoffs

Daniel's playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; January Final Four at neutral sites)

Troy @ No. 1 Florida
No. 9 LSU @ No. 8 Oregon

No. 13 Pittsburgh @ No. 4 Iowa
No. 12 USC @ No. 5 Cincinnati

Central Michigan @ No. 2 Texas
No. 10 Georgia Tech @ No. 7 Boise State

No. 15 Houston @ No. 3 Alabama
No. 11 Penn State @ No. 6 TCU

Crayton's playoff (top conference champions in BCS Top Five and top at-larges in playoff)

New Year's Bowls
No. 1 Florida-No. 5 Cincinnati (Sugar Bowl)
No. 2 Texas-No. 4 Iowa (Rose Bowl)

Add Two playoff (top four at-larges play for two BCS spots, like CCGs)

Dec. 5 Games
No. 7 Boise State-No. 12 USC (Western play-in Game)
No. 9 LSU-No. 11 Penn State (Eastern play-in Game)

The 10th and final BCS spot goes to the highest ranked team not yet in a BCS bowl.

Current BCS playoff

BCS Bowls
No. 1 Florida-No. 2 Texas (BCS Championship)
No. 8 Oregon-No. 4 Iowa (Rose Bowl)
No. 10 Ga Tech-No. 11 Penn State (Orange Bowl)
No. 5 USC-No. 6 TCU (Fiesta Bowl)
No. 3 Alabama-No. 8 Cincinnati (Sugar Bowl)

Tyler's playoff (Eight automatic bids; top eight teams pick opponents for each week)

Teams with first round picks
No. 1 Florida (SEC Champion)
No. 2 Texas (Big 12 Champion)
No. 3 Alabama (At-Large No. 1)
No. 4 Iowa (Big Ten Champion)
No. 5 Cincinnati (Big East Champion)
No. 6 TCU (Mountain West Champion)
No. 7 Boise State (Mid Major Champion)
No. 8 Oregon (Pac-10 Champion)

Teams to be selected from (Conference matchups are disallowed the first round)
No. 9 LSU (At-Large No. 2)
No. 10 Georgia Tech (ACC Champion)
No. 11 Penn State (At-Large No. 3)
No. 12 USC (At-Large No. 4)
No. 13 Pittsburgh (At-Large No. 5)
No. 14 Utah (At-Large No. 6)
No. 15 Houston (At-Large No. 7)
No. 16 Ohio State (At-Large No. 8)

Regional playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; next round in bowl games

West Region Games (winner to Rose Bowl)
No. 4 USC @ No. 1 Boise St
No. 3 Houston @ No. 2 Oregon

South Region Games (winner to Sugar Bowl)
No. 4 LSU @ No. 1 Florida
No. 3 Troy @ No. 2 Alabama

South Region Games (winner to Sugar Bowl)
No. 4 Central Michigan @ No. 1 Texas
No. 3 Georgia Tech @ No. 2 TCU

North Region Games (winner to Rose Bowl)
No. 4 Pittsburgh @ No. 1 Iowa
No. 3 Penn State @ No. 2 Cincinnati

Expanded MWC playoff (Eight-team playoff beginning Jan. 1)

BCS Bowl Quarterfinals (Rankings modified to seedings)
No. 1 Florida-No. 8 Boise State (Sugar Bowl)
No. 2 Texas-No. 7 TCU (Fiesta Bowl)
No. 3 Alabama-No. 6 Cincinnati (Orange Bowl)
No. 4 Iowa-No. 5 Oregon (Rose Bowl)

Second Tier BCS Bowls
No. 9 LSU-No. 14 Utah (Cotton Bowl)
No. 12 USC-No. 13 Pittsburgh (Sun Bowl)
No. 10 Ga Tech-No. 11 Penn State (Citrus Bowl)

Add One playoff (top two teams still play in NC; another high-profile BCS play-in game added)

Dec. 5 Games
No. 1 Florida-No. 2 Alabama (SEC Championship Game)
No. 3 Texas-(unranked) Kansas (Big 12 Championship Game)
No. 4 Iowa-No. 6 TCU (BCS play-in Game)

Playoff Proposal Graveyard

Five-Team playoff

Crayton C playoff

College Football Playoff Prediction Series: Week Eight

Crayton — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:11:51 -0400

The BCS experienced minimal shake-up this week as Florida, Alabama, and Iowa all pulled out close ones.

Last week's No. 10, Miami, lost to Clemson in overtime, taking them out of the playoff picture. Virginia Tech capitalized and moved into some of the larger playoffs.

The Eight-Team playoffs stayed the same this week, but Boise State fell behind TCU in the race for best mid-major. Also, Boise State and Cincinnati were replaced by Iowa and USC in the Four-Team playoff, creating a traditional Rose Bowl matchup in the semifinal.

Virginia, the lone ACC team with no conference losses, lost this weekend, and Georgia Tech has assumed the ACC mantle. Penn State also moved up in the larger playoffs after the Cavaliers' loss.

The Modified MWC proposal has again been modified. I have yet to create an updated page to link to, so feel free to comment on it below.

The Poll

If you have proposals that you'd like displayed next week, then link to them or describe them in the comments section. Up to two may be added for each new iteration of this series.

Each week, there will also be a poll for whichever proposal makes the most sense. The playoff with the least amount of support may not appear next week, at my discretion.

Enjoy the playoffs below, given in an order considering last week's vote.

The Playoffs

Daniel's playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; January Final Four at neutral sites)

Troy @ No. 1 Florida

No. 9 LSU @ No. 8 Cincinnati

No. 13 Virginia Tech @ No. 4 Iowa

No. 12 Penn State @ No. 5 USC

Central Michigan @ No. 2 Alabama

No. 10 Oregon @ No. 7 Boise St

Houston @ No. 3 Texas

No. 11 Georgia Tech @ No. 6 TCU

Crayton's playoff (top conference champions in BCS Top Five and top at-larges in playoff)

New Year's Bowls

No. 1 Florida-No. 3 Texas (Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 Iowa-No. 5 USC (Rose Bowl)

Add Two playoff (top four at-larges play for two BCS spots, like CCGs)

Dec. 5 Games

No. 6 TCU-No. 13 Virginia Tech (Western play-in Game)

No. 9 LSU-No. 12 Penn State (Eastern play-in Game)

The 10th and final BCS spot goes to the highest ranked team not yet in a BCS bowl.

Current BCS playoff

BCS Bowls

No. 1 Florida-No. 2 Alabama (BCS Championship)

No. 10 Oregon-No. 4 Iowa (Rose Bowl)

No. 11 Ga Tech-No. 12 Penn State (Orange Bowl)

No. 3 Texas-No. 6 TCU (Fiesta Bowl)

No. 5 USC-No. 8 Cincinnati (Sugar Bowl)

Tyler's playoff (Eight automatic bids; top eight teams pick opponents for each week)

Teams with first round picks

No. 1 Florida (SEC Champion)

No. 2 Alabama (At-Large No. 1)

No. 3 Texas (Big 12 Champion)

No. 4 Iowa (Big Ten Champion)

No. 5 USC (At-Large No. 2)

No. 6 TCU (Mountain West Champion)

No. 7 Boise State (Mid Major Champion)

No. 8 Cincinnati (Big East Champion)

Teams to be selected from (Conference matchups are disallowed the first round)

No. 9 LSU (At-Large No. 3)

No. 10 Oregon (Pac-10 Champion)

No. 11 Georgia Tech (ACC Champion)

No. 12 Penn State (At-Large No. 4)

No. 13 Virginia Tech (At-Large No. 5)

No. 14 Oklahoma State (At-Large No. 6)

No. 15 Pittsburgh (At-Large No. 7)

No. 16 Utah (At-Large No. 8)

Regional playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; next round in bowl games)

West Region Games (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 Houston @ No. 1 Boise St

No. 3 Oregon @ No. 2 USC

South Region Games (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 LSU @ No. 1 Florida

No. 3 Troy @ No. 2 Alabama

East Region Games (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 Virginia Tech @ No. 1 Texas

No. 3 Georgia Tech @ No. 2 TCU

North Region Games (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 Central Michigan @ No. 1 Iowa

No. 3 Penn State @ No. 2 Cincinnati

Add One playoff (top two teams still play in NC; another high-profile BCS play-in game added)

Dec. 5 Games

No. 1 Florida-No. 2 Alabama (SEC Championship Game)

No. 3 Texas-(unranked) Kansas (Big 12 Championship Game)

No. 4 Iowa-No. 6 TCU (BCS play-in Game)

Modified MWC playoff (Eight-team playoff beginning Jan. 1)

BCS Bowl Quarterfinals (Rankings modified to seedings)

No. 1 Florida-No. 8 Oregon (Sugar Bowl)

No. 2 Alabama-No. 7 Cincinnati (Orange Bowl)

No. 3 Texas-No. 6 TCU (Fiesta Bowl)

No. 4 Iowa-No. 5 USC (Rose Bowl)

Second Tier BCS Bowls

No. 9 LSU-No. 14 Oklahoma State (Cotton Bowl)

No. 7 Boise State-No. 13 Va Tech (Sun Bowl)

No. 11 Ga Tech-No. 12 Penn State (Citrus Bowl)

Playoff Proposal Graveyard

Five-Team playoff

Crayton C playoff

College Football Playoff Prediction Series: Week Seven

Crayton — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:55:32 -0400

This week's results are official. The BCS has finally released their first poll. All computers are in and Florida, Alabama, and Texas all seem to be in control of their own destiny. Boise State is ranked astoundingly in fourth place—the highest ranking of a non-BCS team ever.

The playoff picture changed again this week as No. 3 Virginia Tech lost to No. 17 Georgia Tech. Undefeated Cincinnati has now ascended into the Four-Team playoff.

Surprisingly, Virginia (the Cavaliers not the Hokies) are now leading the ACC, with zero losses. According to the rules of this article series the Cavaliers will represent the ACC in each case where a playoff calls for the ACC Champion.

Oregon, by virtue of Virginia Tech's loss, is now included in the Eight-Team playoff. Iowa has now taken sole possession of the Big Ten lead after Ohio State's inexplicable loss to lowly Purdue. Oklahoma State and Penn State also advanced back into two of the larger playoffs.

The Poll

If you have proposals that you'd like displayed next week, then link to them or describe them in the comments section. Up to two may be added for each new iteration of this series.

Each week, there will also be a poll for whichever proposal makes the most sense. The playoff with the least amount of support may not appear next week, at my discretion.

Enjoy the playoffs below, given in an order considering last week's vote.

The Playoffs

Daniel's playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; January Final Four at neutral sites)

Virginia @ No. 1 Florida

No. 9 LSU @ No. 8 TCU

Central Michigan @ No. 4 Boise State

No. 12 Georgia Tech @ No. 5 Cincinnati

C-USA Champ @ No. 2 Alabama

No. 10 Miami @ No. 7 USC

Troy @ No. 3 Texas

No. 11 Oregon @ No. 6 Iowa

Add Two playoff (top four at larges play for two BCS spots, like CCG's)

Dec. 5 Games

No. 8 TCU—No. 13 Penn State (Western play-in Game)

No. 9 LSU—No. 10 Miami (Eastern play-in Game)

The 10th and final BCS spot goes to the highest ranked team not yet in a BCS bowl.

Crayton's playoff (top conference champions in BCS Top-Five and top at-larges in playoff)

New Year's Bowls

No. 1 Florida—No. 5 Cincinnati (Sugar Bowl)

No. 3 Texas—No. 4 Boise State (Rose Bowl)

Current BCS playoff

BCS Bowls

No. 1 Florida—No. 2 Alabama (BCS Championship)

No. 11 Oregon—No. 6 Iowa (Rose Bowl)

(unranked) Virginia—No. 7 USC (Orange Bowl)

No. 3 Texas—No. 4 Boise State (Fiesta Bowl)

No. 10 Miami—No. 5 Cincinnati (Sugar Bowl)

Add One playoff (top two teams still play in NC; another high-profile BCS play-in game added)

Dec. 5 Games

No. 1 Florida—No. 2 Alabama (SEC Championship Game)

No. 3 Texas—No. 25 Kansas (Big 12 Championship Game)

No. 6 Iowa—No. 8 TCU (BCS play-in Game)

Tyler's playoff (Eight automatic bids; Top eight teams pick opponents for each week)

Teams with first round picks

No. 1 Florida (SEC Champion)

No. 2 Alabama (At Large No. 1)

No. 3 Texas (Big 12 Champion)

No. 4 Boise State (Mid Major Champion)

No. 5 Cincinnati (Big East Champion)

No. 6 Iowa (Big Ten Champion)

No. 7 USC (At Large No. 2)

No. 8 TCU (Mountain West Champion)

Teams to be selected from (Conference matchups are disallowed the first round)

No. 9 LSU (At Large No. 3)

No. 10 Miami (At Large No. 4)

No. 11 Oregon (Pac-10 Champion)

No. 12 Georgia Tech (At Large No. 5)

No. 13 Penn State (At Large No. 6)

No. 14 Virginia Tech (At Large No. 7)

No. 15 Oklahoma State (At Large No. 8)

(unranked) Virginia (ACC Champion)

Regional playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; next round in bowl games)

West Region Games (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 USC @ No. 1 Boise St

No. 3 CUSA Champ @ No. 2 Oregon

South Region Games (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 LSU @ No. 1 Florida

No. 3 Troy @ No. 2 Alabama

East Region Games (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 Virginia @ No. 1 Texas

No. 3 Georgia Tech @ No. 2 Miami

North Region Games (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 Central Michigan @ No. 1 Iowa

No. 3 TCU @ No. 2 Cincinnati

Modified MWC playoff (BCS bowls host each of three playoff rounds in January)

BCS Bowls (Rankings modified to seedings)

No. 1 Florida—No. 8 Oregon (Sugar Bowl)

No. 2 Alabama—No. 7 Cincinnati (Orange Bowl)

No. 3 Texas—No. 6 Boise State (Fiesta Bowl)

No. 4 Iowa—No. 5 USC (Rose Bowl)

Cotton Bowl (a third SEC or Big-12 team may be taken)

No. 7 LSU—(unranked) Virginia

Playoff Proposal Graveyard

Five-Team playoff

Crayton C playoff

College Football Playoff Predictions: Week Six

Crayton — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 23:37:54 -0400

One more week until the official BCS Standings come out. This week it looks like the standings have normalized a bit more as LSU falls to new No. 1, Florida.

Virginia Tech has ascended to No. 3 and has taken LSU's place in the coveted four team playoff.

Additionally, Ohio State has jumped Iowa to take the Big Ten lead as well as a position in the eight team playoff.

The “Crayton C” playoff has been dropped after only one vote last week. Last week, the playoff proposals were renamed. The “Crayton C” playoff had been getting the second highest number of votes when it was called the “Eight-Team” playoff. This week it looks like people actually examined the playoff and found it to be ugly, and agreeably so.

The Poll

If you have proposals that you'd like displayed next week, then link to them or describe them in the comments section. Up to two may be added for each new iteration of this series.

Each week, there will also be a poll for whichever proposal makes the most sense. The playoff with the least amount of support may not appear next week, at my discretion.

Enjoy the playoffs below, given in an order considering last week's vote.

The Playoffs

Daniel's playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; January Final Four at neutral sites)

Sun Belt Champion @ No. 1 Florida

No. 9 Cincy @ No. 8 Ohio State

No. 13 Oregon @ No. 4 Texas

No. 12 Miami @ No. 5 Boise State

CUSA Champion @ No. 2 Alabama

No. 10 Iowa @ No. 7 LSU

Central Michigan @ No. 3 Virginia Tech

No. 11 TCU @ No. 6 USC

Add Two playoff (top four at larges play for two BCS spots, like CCG's)

Dec. 5 Games

No. 7 LSU—No. 12 Miami (Eastern play-in Game)

No. 10 Iowa—No. 11 TCU (Western play-in Game)

The tenth and final BCS spot goes to the highest ranked team not yet in a BCS bowl.

Crayton's playoff (top conference champions in BCS Top-Five and top at-larges in playoff)

New Year's Bowls:

No. 1 Florida—No. 5 Boise State (Sugar Bowl)

No. 3 Virginia Tech—No. 4 Texas (Rose Bowl)

Add One playoff (top two teams still play in NC; another high-profile BCS play-in game added)

Dec. 5 Games:

No. 1 Florida—No. 2 Alabama (SEC Championship Game)

No. 3 Virginia—Wake Forest (ACC Championship Game)

No. 4 Texas—No. 15 Kansas (Big 12 Championship Game)

No. 7 LSU—No. 8 Ohio State (BCS play-in Game)

Current BCS playoff

BCS Bowls:

No. 1 Florida—No. 2 Alabama (BCS Championship)

No. 13 Oregon—No. 8 Ohio State (Rose Bowl)

No. 3 Virginia Tech—No. 7 USC (Orange Bowl)

No. 4 Texas—No. 9 Cincinnati (Fiesta Bowl) – Maybe Fiesta selects Boise State

No. 12 Miami—No. 5 Boise State (Sugar Bowl)

Regional playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; next round in bowl games)

West Region Games: (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 USC @ No. 1 Boise St

No. 3 Oregon @ No. 2 TCU

South Region Games: (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 CUSA/Sun Belt @ No. 1 Virginia Tech

No. 3 Miami @ No. 2 Texas

East Region Games: (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 CUSA/Sun Belt @ No. 1 Florida

No. 3 LSU @ No. 2 Alabama

North Region Games: (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 Central Michigan @ No. 1 Ohio State

No. 3 Iowa @ No. 2 Cincinnati

Tyler's playoff (Eight automatic bids; Top eight teams pick opponents for each week)

Teams with first round picks:

No. 1 Florida (SEC Champion)

No. 2 Alabama (At Large No. 1)

No. 3 Virginia Tech (ACC Champion)

No. 4 Texas (Big 12 Champion)

No. 5 Boise State (Mid Major Champion)

No. 6 USC (At Large No. 2)

No. 7 LSU (At Large No. 3)

No. 8 Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)

Teams to be selected from: (Conference match-ups are disallowed the first round)

No. 9 Cincinnati (Big East Champion)

No. 10 Iowa (At Large No. 4)

No. 10 TCU (Mountain West Champion)

No. 12 Miami (At Large No. 5)

No. 13 Oregon (Pac-10 Champion)

No. 14 Penn State (At Large No. 6)

No. 15 Kansas (At Large No. 7)

No. 16 Nebraska (At Large No. 8)

Modified MWC playoff (BCS bowls host each of three playoff rounds in January)

BCS Bowls: (Rankings modified to seedings)

No. 1 Florida—No. 8 Cincinnati (Sugar Bowl)

No. 2 Alabama—No. 7 Virginia Tech (Orange Bowl)

No. 3 Texas—No. 6 Boise State (Fiesta Bowl)

No. 4 USC—No. 5 Ohio State (Rose Bowl)

Cotton Bowl: (a third SEC or Big 12 team may be taken)

No. 13 Oregon—No. 7 LSU

Playoff Proposal Graveyard:

Five-Team playoff

Crayton C playoff

College Football Playoff Prediction Series: Week Five

Crayton — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 22:43:55 -0400

There was little change among the playoff proposals from last week. The largest change will actually be the fact that our poll no longer lists the size of each playoff but rather provides the name of the source. While the number of votes will likely decrease, the poll as a whole will be more representative.

Last Week

The highest ranked team to suffer a loss was the previous No. 12, Oklahoma, losing to the new No. 12, Miami. Miami thus replaced Oklahoma in the “Add Two” playoff which has teams playing into the final BCS berths instead of being selected by bowls and polls. Miami also replaced Oklahoma in the 16-team models.

LSU dropped Florida out of the top two, riding a first place vote in almost every computer poll. Also, USC and Iowa replaced TCU, who fell from No. 8 to No. 11, in the two Eight-Team playoffs.

The Poll

If you have proposals that you'd like displayed next week, then link to them or describe them in the comments section. Up to two may be added for each new iteration of this series.

Each week, there will also be a poll for which proposals make the most sense. The playoff with the least amount of support may not appear next week, at my discretion.

Enjoy the playoffs below, given in an order considering last week's vote.

The Playoffs

Crayton B playoff (top conference champions in BCS Top-Five and top at-larges in playoff)

New Year's Bowls:

No. 1 Alabama – No. 5 Boise State (Sugar Bowl)

No. 2 LSU – No. 4 Texas (Rose Bowl)

Daniel's playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; January Final Four at neutral sites)

Sun Belt Champion @ No. 1 Alabama

No. 9 Iowa @ No. 8 Cincinnati

No. 13 Oregon @ No. 4 Texas

No. 12 Miami @ No. 5 Boise State

CUSA Champion @ No. 2 LSU

No. 10 Ohio State @ No. 7 USC

Central Michigan @ No. 3 Florida

No. 11 TCU @ No. 6 Virginia Tech

Add Two playoff (top two teams play in NC; top four at larges play for two BCS spots, like CCG's)

Dec. 5 Games

No. 2 LSU—No. 12 Miami (Eastern play-in Game)

No. 10 Ohio State—No. 11 TCU (Western play-in Game)

The final BCS spot goes to the highest ranked team not yet in a BCS bowl.

Add One playoff (top two teams play in NC; a single, high-profile BCS play-in game added)

Dec. 5 Games:

No. 1 Alabama—No. 3 Florida (SEC Championship Game)

No. 2 LSU—No. 10 Ohio State (BCS play-in Game)

No. 4 Texas —No. 16 Kansas (Big 12 Championship Game)

Crayton C playoff (turns SEC and Big 12 championships into two of four play-in games)

Dec. 5th Games:

No. 1 Alabama—No. 3 Florida (SEC play-in Game)

No. 4 Texas—No. 9 Iowa (Big 12 play-in Game)

No. 5 Boise State—No. 8 Cincinnati (Western play-in Game)

No. 6 Virginia Tech—No. 7 USC (Eastern play-in Game)

Current BCS playoff

BCS Bowls:

No. 1 Alabama—No. 2 LSU (BCS Championship)

No. 13 Oregon—No. 9 Iowa (Rose Bowl)

No. 6 Virginia Tech—No. 7 USC (Orange Bowl)

No. 4 Texas—No. 8 Cincinnati (Fiesta Bowl) – Maybe Fiesta selects Boise State

No. 10 Ohio State—No. 5 Boise State (Sugar Bowl)

Modified MWC playoff (BCS bowls host each of three playoff rounds in January)

BCS Bowls: (Rankings modified to seedings)

No. 1 Alabama—No. 8 Cincinnati (Sugar Bowl)

No. 2 LSU—No. 7 Virginia Tech (Orange Bowl)

No. 3 Texas—No. 6 Boise State (Fiesta Bowl)

No. 4 USC—No. 5 Iowa (Rose Bowl)

Cotton Bowl: (a third SEC or Big 12 team may be taken)

No. 13 Oregon—No. 3 Florida

Regional playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; next round in bowl games)

West Region Games: (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 USC @ No. 1 Boise State

No. 3 Oregon @ No. 2 TCU

South Region Games: (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 Miami @ No. 1 Texas

No. 3 CUSA/Sun Belt @ No. 2 Virginia Tech

East Region Games: (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 Florida @ No. 1 Alabama

No. 3 CUSA/Sun Belt @ No. 2 LSU

North Region Games: (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 Ohio State @ No. 1 Cincinnati

No. 3 Central Michigan @ No. 2 Iowa

Tyler's playoff (Eight automatic bids; Top eight teams pick opponents for each week)

Teams with first round picks:

No. 1 Alabama (SEC Champion)

No. 2 LSU (At Large #1)

No. 3 Florida (At Large #2)

No. 4 Texas (Big 12 Champion)

No. 5 Boise State (Mid Major Champion)

No. 6 Virginia Tech (ACC Champion)

No. 7 USC (At Large #3)

No. 8 Cincinnati (Big East Champion)

Teams to be selected from: (Conference match-ups are disallowed the first round)

No. 9 Iowa (Big Ten Champion)

No. 10 Ohio State (At Large #4)

No. 11 TCU (Mountain West Champion)

No. 12 Miami (At Large #5)

No. 13 Oregon (Pac-10 Champion)

No. 14 Auburn (At Large #6)

No. 15 Penn State (At Large #7)

No. 16 Kansas (At Large #8)

Playoff Proposal Graveyard:

Five-Team playoff

College Football Playoff Prediction Series: Week Four

Crayton — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 17:22:28 -0400

The people have spoken and tournaments of size eight and 16 are the overwhelming favorites. In my ever attempt to hone your interests I have added a modification of the Mountain West proposal to compete with the given Eight-Team playoff.

Last Week

Three top teams fell this week, all to the teams that replaced them in the playoff models. This is proof positive that the regular season does, at times, act like a playoff. California gave the Pac-10 lead to Oregon, Penn State gave the Big Ten lead to Iowa, and Miami gave the ACC lead to Virginia Tech.

Boise State capitalized on California's loss and ascended into the coveted Four-Team playoff along with Florida, Alabama, and Texas. TCU slid up into the Eight-Team playoff following Penn State's loss. Ohio State has clawed its way back into the 16-Team playoffs now that the ACC has reduced itself to a single representative.

The National 16-Team playoff is continuing to climb the listings and the Three-Team playoff has finally been dethroned by the Four-Team playoff. Post your thoughts on these playoffs.

The Poll

If you have proposals that you'd like displayed next week, then link to them or describe them in the comments section. Up to two may be added for each new iteration of this series.

Each week, there will also be a poll for which proposals make the most sense. The playoff with the least amount of support may not appear next week, at my discretion.

Enjoy the playoffs below, given in an order considering last week's vote.

The Playoffs

Four-Team playoff (top conference champions in BCS Top-Five and top at-larges in playoff)

New Year's Bowls:

No. 1 Alabama – No. 5 Boise State (Sugar Bowl)

No. 2 Florida – No. 4 Texas (Rose Bowl)

Two-Team playoff (top two teams play in NC; two more play-in games, like CCG's, added)

The 10 BCS spots go to:

No. 1 Alabama—No. 2 Florida (SEC Championship Game)

No. 3 LSU—No. 12 Oklahoma (Western play-in Game)

No. 4 Texas—No. 19 Kansas (Big 12 Championship Game)

No. 5 Boise State (Mid-Major Champion)

No. 6 Va Tech—NC State (ACC Championship Game)

No. 7 Cincinnati (Big East Champion)

No. 8 TCU—No. 11 Ohio State (Eastern play-in Game)

No. 10 Iowa (Big Ten Champion)

No. 15 Oregon (Pac-10 Champion)

The 10th BCS spot goes to the highest ranked team not yet in a BCS bowl.

National 16-Team playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; January Final Four at neutral sites)

MAC Champion @ No. 1 Alabama

No. 9 USC @ No. 8 TCU

No. 14 Georgia @ No. 4 Texas

No. 12 Oklahoma @ No. 5 Boise State

Sun Belt Champion @ No. 2 Florida

No. 10 Iowa @ No. 7 Cincinnati

No. 13 Houston @ No. 3 LSU

No. 11 Ohio State @ No. 6 Virginia Tech

Three-Team playoff (top two teams play in NC; a single, high-profile BCS play-in game added)

Dec. 5 Games:

No. 1 Alabama—No. 2 Florida (SEC Championship Game)

No. 3 LSU—No. 8 TCU (BCS play-in Game)

No. 4 Texas —No. 19 Kansas (Big 12 Championship Game)

Current BCS playoff

BCS Bowls:

No. 1 Alabama—No. 2 Florida (BCS Championship)

No. 15 Oregon—No. 10 Iowa (Rose Bowl)

No. 6 Virginia Tech—No. 11 Ohio St (Orange Bowl)– maybe Orange Bowl selects Cincinnati

No. 4 Texas—No. 7 Cincinnati (Fiesta Bowl)

No. 12 Oklahoma—No. 6 Boise State (Sugar Bowl)

Eight-Team playoff (turns SEC and Big 12 championships into two of four play-in games)

Dec. 5th Games:

No. 1 Alabama—No. 2 Florida (SEC play-in Game)

No. 4 Texas—No. 9 USC (Big 12 play-in Game)

No. 5 Boise State—No. 8 TCU (Western play-in Game)

No. 6 Va Tech—No. 7 Cincinnati (Eastern play-in Game)

Mountain West playoff (BCS bowls host each of three playoff rounds in January)

BCS Bowls: (Rankings modified to seedings)

No. 1 Alabama—No. 8 TCU (Sugar Bowl)

No. 2 Florida—No. 7 Iowa (Rose Bowl)

No. 3 Texas—No. 6 Cincinnati (Fiesta Bowl)

No. 4 Boise State—No. 5 Virginia Tech (Orange Bowl)

Cotton Bowl: (a third SEC or Big 12 team may be taken)

No. 15 Oregon—No. 3 LSU

Regional 16-Team playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; next round in bowl games)

West Region Games: (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 USC @ No. 1 Boise St

No. 3 Oregon @ No. 2 TCU

South Region Games: (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 Houston @ No. 1 Texas

No. 3 Oklahoma @ No. 2 Virginia Tech

East Region Games: (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 4 Sun Belt Champion @ No. 1 Alabama

No. 3 LSU @ No. 2 Florida

North Region Games: (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 4 Ohio State @ No. 1 Cincinnati

No. 3 MAC Champion @ No. 2 Iowa

Pick 'em 16-Team playoff (Eight automatic bids; Top eight teams pick opponents for each week)

Teams with first round picks:

No. 1 Alabama (SEC Champion)

No. 2 Florida (At Large #1)

No. 3 LSU (At Large #2)

No. 4 Texas (Big 12 Champion)

No. 5 Boise State (Mid Major Champion)

No. 6 Virginia Tech (ACC Champion)

No. 7 Cincinnati (Big East Champion)

No. 8 TCU (Mountain West Champion)

Teams to be selected from: (Conference match-ups are disallowed the first round)

No. 9 USC (At Large #3)

No. 10 Iowa (Big Ten Champion)

No. 11 Ohio State (At Large #4)

No. 12 Oklahoma (At Large #5)

No. 13 Houston (At Large #6)

No. 14 Georgia (At Large #7)

No. 15 Oregon (Pac-10 Champion)

No. 16 Penn State (At Large #8)

Playoff Proposal Graveyard:

Five-Team playoff

College Football Playoff Prediction Series: Week Three

Crayton — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 13:02:36 -0400

I am quite nearly appalled at last week's poll results which unequivocally favor the larger playoffs to the smaller, simpler playoffs. Come on, has North Carolina earned title game recognition?

Part of this is just the nature of this article series and who it attracts. And part of my distaste is my own bias toward the “Regional 16 Team playoff” which was outvoted by the “National 16 Team playoff.” Don't worry about my tastes though. Keep voting for the most sensible playoff.

Last Week

Last week two of our playoff hopefuls took a punch to the gut. The Southern California Trojans and the Brigham Young Cougars both lost to unranked competition.

USC dropped out of the Three-Team playoff and in most other cases was replaced by California as the Pac-10 representative. The Trojans cling to a possible BCS berth in the Two-Team playoff and are still members of each of the 16-Team playoff models.

BYU took a harder fall and has disappeared out of all playoff models. Virginia Tech and Oklahoma took the Cougars' and the Buckeyes' spots in the Two-Team playoff. In the larger 16-Team playoffs TCU has taken the Mountain West mantle.

Cincinnati and Miami rocketed into the Eight-Team playoff, which despite decent votes has been falling in the poll. I have also decide to kill the Five-Team playoff which took zero votes both of the last two weeks. I kinda liked the playoff idea but realize it was just too rigid for wide acceptance. For similar reasons I have considered replacing the Eight-Team playoff with a more streamlined model.

A third 16-Team playoff has also been added at the request of one of last week's posters. While I am hoping votes shift to the smaller playoffs it will be interesting to see which larger format makes the most sense to voters.

The Poll

If you have proposals that you'd like displayed next week, then link to them or describe them in the comments section. Up to two may be added for each new iteration of this series.

Each week there will also be a poll for which proposals makes the most sense. The playoff with the least amount of support may not appear next week, at my discretion.

Enjoy the playoffs below, given in an order considering last week's vote.

The Playoffs

Three-Team playoff (top two teams play in NC; a single, high-profile BCS play-in game added)

Dec. 5 Games:

No. 1 Alabama – No. 3 Florida (SEC Championship Game)

No. 2 Texas – No. 19 Kansas (Big 12 Championship Game)

No. 4 LSU – No. 7 Penn State (BCS play-in Game)

Four-Team playoff (top conference champions in BCS Top 5 and top at-larges in playoff)

New Year's Bowls:

No. 1 Alabama – No. 5 California (Rose Bowl)

No. 2 Texas – No. 3 Florida (Fiesta Bowl)

Two-Team playoff (top two teams play in NC; two more play-in games, like CCG's, added)

The 10 BCS spots go to:

No. 1 Alabama – No. 3 Florida (SEC Championship Game)

No. 2 Texas – No. 19 Nebraska (Big 12 Championship Game)

No. 4 LSU – No. 13 Va Tech (Eastern BCS play-in Game)

No. 5 California (Pac-10 Champion)

No. 6 Boise State (Mid-Major Champion)

No. 7 Penn State (Big Ten Champion)

No. 8 Miami – Clemson (ACC Championship Game)

No. 10 Cincinnati (Big East Champion)

No. 11 USC – No. 12 Oklahoma (Western play-in Game)

The 10th BCS spot goes to the highest ranked team not yet in a BCS bowl.

National 16-Team Playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; January Final Four at neutral sites)

Ohio @ No. 1 Alabama

No. 9 Ole Miss @ No. 8 Miami

No. 14 Ohio State @ No. 4 LSU

No. 12 Oklahoma @ No. 5 California

Louisiana Lafayette @ No. 2 Texas

No. 10 Cincinnati @ No. 7 Penn State

No. 13 Virginia Tech @ No. 3 Florida

No. 11 USC @ No. 6 Boise State

Current BCS Playoff

BCS Bowls:

No. 1 Alabama – No. 2 Texas (BCS Championship)

No. 5 California – No. 7 Penn State (Rose Bowl)

No. 8 Miami – No. 14 Ohio St (Orange Bowl)

No. 12 Oklahoma – No. 10 Cincinnati (Fiesta Bowl) – maybe Fiesta Bowl selects Boise State

No. 3 Florida – No. 6 Boise State (Sugar Bowl)

Regional 16 Team playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; next round in bowl games)

West Region Games: (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 21 Houston @ No. 5 California

No. 11 USC @ No. 6 Boise St

South Region Games: (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 13 Va Tech @ No. 2 Texas

No. 12 Oklahoma @ No. 8 Miami

East Region Games: (winner to Sugar Bowl)

Louisiana Lafayette @ No. 1 Alabama

No. 5 LSU @ No. 4 Florida

North Region Games: (winner to Rose Bowl)

Ohio @ No. 7 Penn State

No. 15 TCU @ No. 10 Cincinnati

Eight-Team Playoff (turns SEC and Big 12 championships into two of four play-in games)

December 5th Games:

No. 1 Alabama – No. 3 Florida (SEC play-in Game)

No. 2 Texas – No. 10 Cincinnati (Big 12 play-in Game)

No. 5 California – No. 8 Miami (Western play-in Game)

No. 7 Penn State – No. 6 Boise State (Eastern play-in Game)

Pick 'em 16 Team Playoff (Eight automatic bids; Top eight teams pick opponents for each week)

Teams with first round picks:

No. 1 Alabama (SEC Champion)

No. 2 Texas (Big 12 Champion)

No. 3 Florida (At Large #1)

No. 4 LSU (At Large #2)

No. 5 California (Pac-10 Champion)

No. 6 Boise State (Mid Major Champion)

No. 7 Penn State (Big Ten Champion)

No. 8 Miami (ACC Champion)

Teams to be selected from: (Conference match-ups are disallowed the first round)

No. 9 Ole Miss (At Large #3)

No. 10 Cincinnati (Big East Champion)

No. 11 USC (At Large #4)

No. 12 Oklahoma (At Large #5)

No. 13 Virginia Tech (At Large #6)

No. 14 Ohio State (At Large #7)

No. 15 TCU (Mountain West Champion)

No. 16 North Carolina (At Large #8)

Graveyard:

Five-Team Playoff

College Football Playoff Prediction Series: Week Two

Crayton — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 17:35:00 -0400

Last week introduced the new College Football Playoff Predictions Series. After losses by Ohio State and Oklahoma State, there has been considerable movement in each playoff proposal.

Ohio State has been replaced by Alabama in the four-team playoff, California in the eight-team playoff and Penn State in every other proposal. The Buckeyes managed to stay in the two- and 16-team playoff proposals.

Oklahoma State has been replaced by LSU in most playoff proposals, Boise State in the eight-team playoff proposal, and by the Oklahoma Sooners in the regional 16-team playoff proposal.

Georgia Tech has surpassed Virginia Tech as the top ACC team and Houston has likewise replaced East Carolina. Also of note is that Boise State passed BYU as the top mid-major team.

Below you will notice the inclusion of two new proposals from last week. The current BCS two-team playoff is included, as well as a national 16-team playoff to compete with the regional 16-team playoff. The 16 Team playoff garnered the greatest amount of votes last week.

The Poll

If you have proposals that you'd like displayed next week, then link to them or describe them in the comments section. Up to two may be added for each new iteration of this series.

Each week there will also be a poll for which proposals makes the most sense. The playoff with the least amount of support may not appear next week, at my discretion.

Enjoy the playoffs below, given in an order considering last week's vote.

Three-Team playoff (top two BCS teams play in NC; adds a single, high-profile BCS play-in game)

Dec. 5 Games:

No. 1 USC-Arizona

No. 2 Texas-No. 19 Nebraska (Big 12 Championship Game)

No. 3 Alabama-No. 4 Florida (SEC Championship Game)

No. 5 LSU-No. 8 Penn State (BCS play-in game)

No. 6 California-Washington

No. 7 Boise State-New Mexico State

Four-Team playoff (top conference champions in BCS Top 5 and top at-larges in playoff)

New Year's Bowls:

No. 1 USC-No. 4 Florida (Rose Bowl)

No. 2 Texas-No. 3 Alabama (Fiesta Bowl)

Two-Team playoff (top two teams play in NC; adds two play-in games for other BCS spots)

The 10 BCS spots go to:

No. 1 USC (Pac-10 Champion)

No. 2 Texas-No. 19 Nebraska (Big 12 Championship Game)

No. 3 Alabama-No. 4 Florida (SEC Championship Game)

No. 5 LSU-No. 11 Ohio State (Eastern BCS play-in Game)

No. 6 California-No. 9 BYU (Western BCS play-in Game)

No. 7 Boise State (Mid-Major Champion)

No. 8 Penn State (Big Ten Champion)

No. 13 Georgia Tech-Boston College (ACC Championship Game)

No. 20 Cincinnati (Big East Champion)

The 10th BCS spot goes to the highest ranked team not yet in a BCS bowl.

Current BCS Playoff

BCS Bowls:

No. 1 USC-No. 2 Texas (BCS Championship)

No. 6 California-No. 8 Penn State (Rose Bowl)

No. 13 Georgia Tech-No. 4 Florida (Orange Bowl)

No. 12 Oklahoma-No. 7 Boise State (Fiesta Bowl)

No. 3 Alabama-No. 20 Cincinnati (Sugar Bowl)

Five-Team Playoff (teams from Top 8 that win play in tournament; a play-in game added)

December 5th Games:

No. 1 USC–Arizona

No. 2 Texas–No. 19 Nebraska (Big 12 Championship Game)

No. 3 Alabama–No. 4 Florida (SEC Championship Game)

No. 5 LSU–No. 8 Penn State (play-in game)

Potential Replacements:

(Automatic BCS Champions in Top 8 listed first)

No. 7 Boise State-New Mexico State (if USC or Texas lose)

No. 6 California-Washington (if two out of USC, Texas, and Boise State lose)

No. 9 BYU, No. 10 Ole Miss, and No. 11 Ohio State have mathematical chances

Regional 16 Team playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; Final Four in bowl games)

West Region Games: (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 9 BYU @ No. 1 USC

No. 6 California @ No. 7 Boise State

South Region Games: (winner to Sugar Bowl)

No. 21 Houston @ No. 2 Texas

No. 12 Oklahoma @ No. 13 Georgia Tech

East Region Games: (winner to Sugar Bowl)

Louisiana Lafayettte @ No. 3 Alabama

No. 5 LSU @ No. 4 Florida

North Region Games: (winner to Rose Bowl)

Central Michigan @ No. 8 Penn State

No. 11 Ohio State @ No. 20 Cincinnati

Eight-Team Playoff (turns SEC and Big 12 championships into two of four play-in games)

December 5th Games:

No. 3 Alabama–No. 4 Florida (SEC play-in Game)

No. 1 USC–No. 6 California (Western play-in Game)

No. 2 Texas–No. 9 BYU (Big 12 play-in Game)

No. 8 Penn State–No. 7 Boise State (Eastern play-in Game)

National 16-Team Playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; January Final Four at neutral sites)

Louisiana Lafayette @ No. 1 USC

No. 9 BYU @ No. 8 Penn State

No. 20 Cincinnati @ No. 4 Florida

No. 13 Ga Tech @ No. 5 LSU

Central Michigan @ No. 2 Texas

No. 10 Ole Miss @ No. 7 Boise State

No. 21 Houston @ No. 3 Alabama

No. 11 Ohio State @ No. 6 California

College Football Playoff Prediction Series: Week One

Crayton — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 16:39:06 -0400

Welcome to this new series, written for all of you who are thirsty for a playoff. Various proposals will be presented given the current BCS and conference ranks of all teams.

Conference and division leaders will be determined by the least number of losses in conference or by BCS rank if head-to-head is insufficient. Note: a game between two teams which has not yet been played is not counted as a loss for either team.

If you have proposals that you'd like displayed next week, then link to them or describe them in the comments section. Up to two may be added for each new iteration of this series.

Each week there will also be a poll for which proposals makes the most sense. The playoff with the least amount of support may not appear next week, at my discretion.

Enjoy the playoffs below, given (for now) in order of size:

Two Team playoff (top two BCS teams play in NC; adds two play-in games for other BCS spots)

The 10 BCS spots go to:

No. 1 Florida – No. 4 Alabama (SEC Championship Game)

No. 2 USC (Pac-10 Champion)

No. 3 Texas – No. 19 Missouri (Big 12 Championship Game)

No. 5 Oklahoma State – No. 10 California (Western BCS play-in Game)

No. 6 Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)

No. 7 Penn State – No. 9 Boise State (Eastern BCS play-in Game)

No. 8 BYU (Mid-Major Champion)

No. 16 Virginia Tech – Clemson (ACC Championship Game)

No. 20 Cincinnati (Big East Champion)

The 10th BCS spot goes to the highest ranked team not yet in a BCS bowl.

Three Team playoff (top two BCS teams play in NC; adds a single, high-profile BCS play-in game)

December 5th Games:

No. 1 Florida – No. 4 Alabama (SEC Championship Game)

No. 2 USC – Arizona

No. 3 Texas – No. 19 Missouri (Big 12 Championship Game)

No. 5 Oklahoma State – No. 6 Ohio State (BCS play-in game)

Four Team playoff (top conference champions in BCS Top 5 and top at-larges in playoff)

New Years' Bowls:

No. 1 Florida – No. 3 Texas (Sugar Bowl)

No. 2 USC – No. 6 Ohio State (Rose Bowl)

The sixth place team is permitted to complete a traditional Rose Bowl.

Five Team playoff (top four BCS teams play in bowl semifinals; a tournament play-in game added)

December 5th Games: (Only top eight teams are playoff eligible)

No. 1 Florida – No. 4 Alabama (SEC Championship Game)

No. 2 USC – Arizona

No. 3 Texas – No. 19 Missouri (Big 12 Championship Game)

No. 5 Oklahoma State – No. 6 Ohio State (tournament play-in game)

Potential Replacements: (Automatic BCS Champions in Top 8 listed first)

No. 8 BYU (automatically ascends to playoff if USC or Texas lose)

No. 7 Penn State (automatically ascends to playoff if USC and Texas lose)

Eight Team playoff (turns SEC and Big 12 championships into two of four play-in games)

December 5th Games:

No. 1 Florida – No. 4 Alabama (SEC play-in Game)

No. 2 USC – No. 8 BYU (Western play-in Game)

No. 3 Texas – No. 5 Oklahoma State (Big 12 play-in Game)

No. 6 Ohio State – No. 7 Penn State (Eastern play-in Game)

16 Team playoff (first two rounds on campuses in early December; Final Four in bowl games)

West Region Games: (winner to Rose Bowl)

No. 9 Boise State @ No. 2 USC

No. 10 California @ No. 8 BYU

South Region Games: (winner to Sugar Bowl)

Sun Belt Champion @ No. 3 Texas

No. 5 Oklahoma State @ No. 16 Virginia Tech

East Region Games: (winner to Sugar Bowl)

East Carolina @ No. 1 Florida

No. 11 LSU @ No. 4 Alabama

North Region Games: (winner to Rose Bowl)

MAC Champion @ No. 6 Ohio State

No. 7 Penn State @ No. 20 Cincinnati

There you have it. Call out your favorite one and which ones you think should recede back into the minds from which they came. Also, please post more for next week. Ciao.

Tectonic Shifts That Could Shake Up the BCS

Crayton — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 20:44:45 -0400

From 2003 to 2005 we saw a dramatic shift in the conference alignment. Three Big East teams moved to the ACC, who were replaced by teams from Conference USA, who were in turn replaced by teams from the former WAC. With the $17 Million associated with becoming an automatic qualifying conference in the BCS, what future changes could we see shaping the college football landscape? We will look at 10 tectonic shifts spanning from the San Andreas Fault in the West to the Continental Shelf in the East.

Begin Slideshow

FBS Playoff Series: Five Teams

Crayton — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 15:51:58 -0400

Picking The Top Four

If you were to pick four teams to put in a playoff before the bowls this past season, which four would you pick?

Would you pick the top four by rank: No. 1 Oklahoma, No. 2 Florida, No. 3 Texas, and No. 4 Alabama?

Or, would you pick the top four conference champions and replace Texas and Alabama, with No. 5 USC and No. 6 Utah?

Here is a format which forges a middle path, selecting the three conference champions in the Top 5 and Texas as an at-large. But, there is a way to reduce the influence of the polls by selecting the playoff teams on the field.

Overall, this five-team format adds a play-in game on Championship Saturday between two Top 8 teams. The winner of this game, along with the top three conference champions, advance to the four team playoff.

The Four Playoff Positions

In order to ensure that the play-in game features top teams, the teams in playoff position need to be defined before the final week. The three highest-ranked teams which have won or have the potential of winning their conference (including Notre Dame) are placed in playoff position.

Additionally, the winner of any game featuring two Top 8 teams is also given a playoff position.

Because a team must win its final game of the season to graduate into the playoff, there is a defined order of at-large teams. The highest-ranked team not yet in a playoff position is given the top at-large position. Conference champions remaining in the Top 8 are then seeded into at large positions. Finally, all remaining teams are given at large positions.

Here is what the situation for this past year would have looked like:

Playoff Position No. 1: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Florida

Playoff Position No. 2: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. (opponent)

Playoff Position No. 3: No. 5 USC vs. (opponent)

At-Large Position No. 1: No. 3 Texas (bye)

At-Large Position No. 2: No. 6 Utah (bye)

At-Large Position No. 3: No. 8 Penn State (bye)

At-Large Position No. 4: No. 7 Texas Tech (bye)

Our play-in game would feature the highest-ranked team with a bye and the next highest-positioned at-large team with a bye. In this case, No. 3 Texas and No. 6 Utah would play against each other for a playoff position.

In the case where the two teams have already played during the regular season, then the loser of that game is removed from consideration and the two teams are re-picked.

As long as the play-in game matches two Top 8 teams, then the winner will be considered in playoff position.

If, however, there are now five defined playoff positions, then the team in playoff position No. 3 or the team in playoff position No. 2 would play an at-large team in the play-in game, so long as they had a bye this last week. This ensures that there are exactly four playoff positions.

Impacts on the Current System

A four-team playoff already causes changes to the system without the play-in game. A significant change would be the addition of a fifth BCS Bowl to preserve the 10 bowl spots.

Also, because this year the Orange Bowl would also host the national championship game, it would be played in the latest BCS slot (Jan. 4 or 5) instead of the Fiesta Bowl and host one of the two semifinals a week before the national championship.

Team selection for the BCS will not experience a fundamental change—the same conferences will have automatic qualification for their champions. Because the playoff is defined before the final week, having an additional BCS poll after Championship Saturday becomes useless and potentially confusing.

Therefore, at-large teams will be selected from among the Top 8 teams (win or lose in their final game) and from among the Top 16 teams who did not lose on Championship Saturday. This will also be the qualification criteria for BCS Busters.

Conclusion

Using the same concept discovered in the Three-Team Playoff, the play-in game helps weed out potentially overrated teams without adding an extra week to the regular season and by captivating a national audience.

Additionally, the flaws in an Eight-Team Playoff, which incorporate and then mutilate the conference championship games will be eliminated by adding only one unobtrusive matchup.

This playoff proposal puts a premium on teams winning their conference and also on winning their final game. This means that each game in the regular season is worth something for positioning and that a team can't "phone in" the last game of the season because they have already been assured a playoff spot.

Mid-major access to the national championship is now also created. While the highest a mid-major has been ranked at the end of the regular season has been only No. 6 during the BCS era, three mid-majors would have been given access to the National Championship because of their Top 8 finish: No. 6 Utah 2004, No. 8 Boise St 2006, and No. 6 Utah 2008.

Another Iteration of the FBS Playoff Series:

Sixteen Teams

A Playoff's Degredation of the Regular Season

Crayton — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 12:08:32 -0400

A common argument against a playoff system for college football is that it lessens the value of the regular season. This would be especially true under a larger 16-team playoff format. The argument follows that if a team is virtually assured of a playoff spot then they can perform poorly in their remaining game(s) with no playoff ramifications.

This phenomena is commonly cited in the NFL, when sometimes a team may sit out starters on the last game of the regular season. Sometimes a team may lose two straight games after clinching a playoff berth. Both of these aspects of the NFL are greatly unwelcome in College Football, yet a playoff would seemingly encourage those actions.

A prime example would be a team like Boise State who, even with two games remaining on their schedule, could clinched the WAC Championship and a spot in the playoff. What then would the Broncos be playing for in those last games?

The answer is that they'd be playing for the same thing whether a playoff exists or not. Why do teams which may be 8-3 with the National Title no longer on the line continue to play strong?

In the NFL, there sometimes are incentives to play hard the last game. A first-round bye or home field game may be on the line. With 16-game schedules, however, those incentives are often locked up prior to the final week, but in College Football obtaining a first round home game would require effort each of the last weeks.

Beyond the rhetoric concerning the degradation of the regular season, we will examine the implications of a playoff on last year's college football action. Would we see more ho-hum games, or more exciting games?

This is the playoff format being used and we will look at last year with each team having at most their final game remaining. The incentives built into the system are home game priority for teams winning their conference as well as having the last week of the season be the Thanksgiving Rivalry Weekend.

If you click on ahead, we will go through the potential bracket.

(Note, the Oregon State – Oregon and Georgia Tech – Georgia games become humongous with Regional as well as National ramifications.)

West Region

USC (No. 5 BCS)

USC clinched a playoff spot with their victory over Notre Dame last week. This week's rivalry game against the UCLA Bruins has home field advantage on the line.

If the Trojans lose then they will probably end up a No. 4 seed, traveling to Utah for their first playoff game. USC also does not have the Pac-10 under wraps yet and needs a loss by Oregon State to insure a No. 1 seed in the West Region.

Utah (No. 6 BCS)

Utah concluded their undefeated season last week, wrapping up a conference championship with a victory over the BYU Cougars. The Utes are assured of a home game in the first round of the playoffs and could move up to the No. 1 seed in the West with a USC loss or Oregon State win.

Boise State (No. 9 BCS)

Boise State locked up the WAC last week with a victory over Nevada. A win this week against Air Force serves only to keep the Broncos out of the No. 4 seed. A victory combined with a USC loss, however, could propel Boise State over USC into the No. 2 seed with a home game in the first round.

TCU (No. 11 BCS)

TCU is currently sitting just outside the last at large spot at 10-2. If Oregon State and Georgia lose this week then TCU will squeak into the playoffs. If USC also losses then the Horned Frogs could find themselves as the No. 3 seed in the West.

Oregon State (No. 17 BCS)

All Oregon State needs to do is defeat their rivals, the Oregon Ducks, to make the playoffs. Oregon State will most likely get only a No. 4 seed as long as Boise State stays undefeated. But with a USC loss the Beavers could find themselves with the No. 2 seed and a first round playoff game.

Conference USA Champion

Rice, Tulsa, and Houston are all currently tied for the Conference USA championship. If TCU does not obtain an at large bid and Oregon State losses then the Conference USA Champion will play in the West region.

South Region

Texas (No. 2 BCS)

Texas has the upper-hand over Oklahoma going into the final game against rival Texas A&M. The Longhorns have virtually assured themselves a trip to the playoffs. A victory against the Aggies will insure a home field game in the playoffs. It will be up to the voters whether Texas stays ranked above Oklahoma.

Oklahoma (No. 3 BCS)

Oklahoma most likely clinched a playoff spot with their victory last week. This week, the Sooners will fight for a home playoff game and potentially the No. 1 seed against the rival Cowboys from Oklahoma State.

Texas Tech (No. 7 BCS)

Texas Tech will be playing for a playoff spot this week against Baylor. The Red Raiders are currently slotted for the No. 3 seed but could move up if either Oklahoma or Texas slip.

Oklahoma State (No. 12 BCS)

Because only three teams from a single conference may gain entry to the playoffs the Cowboys are on the outside looking in. However, their marquee game against No. 4 Oklahoma could propel the Cowboys past the Sooners or a Texas Tech team into the No. 3 seed.

Missouri (No. 13 BCS)

Missouri likewise needs help to make the playoffs. Their best chance at a playoff spot would be a victory over Kansas this week combined with a Texas Tech loss to Baylor.

Houston (6-1 Conference USA)

Houston is in the driver's seat for the Conference USA title. A victory over Rice will send Houston to the playoffs, most likely as a No. 4 seed in the South Region.

Tulsa (6-1 Conference USA)

Tulsa got off to an 8-0 start but needs a victory against Marshall this week and a Houston loss to clinch the Conference USA title.

Rice (6-1 Conference USA)

Rice is the longshot for the Conference USA title and needs a victory over Houston and a Tulsa loss to make it to the playoffs.

Sun Belt Champion

The Sun Belt champion may play in the South Region if the Conference USA Champion plays in the West Region.

East Region

Alabama (No. 1 BCS)

Alabama is the sole remaining undefeated BCS team. They are currently slotted for the No. 1 seed but will slip to No. 2 with a loss to their rival, the Auburn Tigers, and a Florida win. Alabama would then be in danger of falling to the No. 3 seed if Georgia Tech defeats Georgia.

Florida (No. 4 BCS)

Florida has almost clinched a playoff berth and can clinch the top seed in the South with a victory over rival Florida State and an Alabama loss. Otherwise, a Georgia loss to Georgia Tech will send the Gators on the road.

A loss to Florida State and the Gators falling below TCU at the No. 12 spot would eliminate them from playoff contention.

Georgia (No. 11 BCS)

Georgia will gain entrance into the playoffs as the final at large team with a victory over rival Georgia Tech. Georgia will gain the No. 3 seed but could vault into the No. 2 spot with a Florida loss.

Florida State (No. 20 BCS)

Florida State is finished with ACC play and can gain the conference title in a three-way tie with Georgia Tech and either Virginia Tech or Boston College. A win against Florida will most likely break the tie and send the Seminoles to the No. 3 seed, or No. 2 if Georgia loses.

Boston College (No. 21 BCS)

Boston College needs help for the ACC Championship. A victory over Maryland, and losses by Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Georgia Tech are all required for a No. 4 seed.

Georgia Tech (No. 22 BCS)

Georgia Tech is in the ACC driver's seat, owning all two and four team tie-breakers. The Yellow Jackets can clinch the fourth seed with a BC or VT loss (not both) or the No. 2 seed with a victory against rival Georgia and an FSU loss.

Virginia Tech (4-3 ACC)

Like Boston College, Virginia Tech needs help for the ACC Championship. A victory over Maryland, and losses by Boston College, Florida State, and Georgia Tech are all required for a No. 4 seed.

Troy (5-1 Sun Belt Conference)

Troy clinched the Sun Belt conference last week with one game remaining on the schedule. Troy will play as the No. 4 seed in the East Region if Georgia loses.

North Region

Penn State (No. 8 BCS)

Penn State finished their regular season 11-1 and at the top of the North Region playoff.

Ohio State (No. 10 BCS)

Ohio State finished their regular season 10-2 and clinched the No. 3 seed.

Ball State (No. 15 BCS)

Ball State plays for the MAC Championship against Western Michigan this week. With a victory the undefeated Cardinals should have the No. 2 seed in the North Region if they stay ranked above Cincinnati.

Cincinnati (No. 16 BCS)

Cincinnati has already clinched the Big East after West Virginia's loss to Pittsburgh last week. The Bearcats will jump to the No. 2 seed with a win over Syracuse and finishing above Ball State.

Western Michigan (6-1 MAC)

Western Michigan plays Ball State this weekend for the MAC champion. With a victory, Western Michigan will gain the No. 4 seed in the North Region.

How it played out

West Region: Oregon State lost while USC and Boise State won.

1 USC (11-1)

2 Utah (12-0)

3 Boise St (12-0)

4 TCU (10-2)

South Region: Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech all won. Oklahoma jumped Texas. Tulsa won Conference USA

1 Oklahoma (11-1)

2 Texas (11-1)

3 Texas Tech (11-1)

4 Tulsa (10-2)

East Region: Ga Tech defeated Georgia and won the ACC. Florida and Alabama both won.

1 Alabama (12-0)

2 Georgia Tech (9-3)

3 Florida (11-1)

4 Troy (8-4)

North Region: Ball State defeated Western Michigan and finished ahead of Cincinnati

1 Penn State (11-1)

2 Ball State (12-0)

3 Ohio State (10-2)

4 Cincinnati (10-2)

Example Bowl Series Games

ROSE: NORTH vs. WEST

USC vs. Penn State

SUGAR: SOUTH vs. EAST

Texas vs. Florida

COTTON: B12 vs. SEC

Oklahoma vs. Alabama

ORANGE: ACC vs. Big East

Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati

FIESTA: Big Ten/Pac-10 vs. At Large in second round

Ohio State vs. Utah

CHAMPIONSHIP: Rose Winner vs. Sugar Winner

The Big Ten Goes to Quads

Crayton — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 13:02:45 -0400

An Expanded Big Ten Schedule

The current scheduling system among Big Ten schools is that each team has two permanent rivals and rotates their remaining six conference games among the eight other schools in the conference.

What would Big Ten scheduling look like if the conference expanded to 12 teams? Would teams now have to wait four, five, even eight years to play a home and away against some of their more distant conference rivals?

For those fantasizing about a 12-team Big Ten, two divisions are almost a foregone conclusion. However, the Big Ten can have their cake and eat it, too. The current Big Ten scheduling format can fit wonderfully into a 12-team conference with a conference championship game.

What are Quads?

From 1996 to 1998 the WAC had 16 teams which they divided into four “Quads.” Two Quads were paired into a division and the pairings could change each year. In this manner, a team would have annual rivals within their Quad and rotate through the other teams in the conference.

We will examine how the Quad System would work for the Big Ten. For simplicity's sake, we will have Notre Dame fill the 12th Big Ten slot. Actual alignments will probably be drawn up with more considerations than I can give.

QUAD I

Iowa

Minnesota

Wisconsin

QUAD II

Illinois

Indiana

Northwestern

QUAD III

Michigan State

Notre Dame

Purdue

QUAD IV

Michigan

Ohio State

Penn State

Teams play the other teams in their Quad every single year and each Quad undergoes a three year cycle with the other Quads of playing at home, playing away, and having a bye year. This totals eight conference games.

For example, each team in Quad I will host each team from Quad II and travel to play at each team in Quad IV. The next year, Quad I will host each team from Quad IV and travel to play at each team in Quad III.

For some teams like Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, there is almost zero difference between this scheduling and their current scheduling. These three teams are already permanent rivals with each other and play in their own “Quad,” of sorts.

The Big Ten Championship Game

However, divisions are still required for a Conference Championship Game. The pairing of Quads is done in the following manner: The Quad with the best combined conference record the previous year will be paired with the Quad with the worst combined record (Quads with a bye against each other will not be paired). This insures that the top two Quads will always be in separate divisions.

As an example here are last year's combined Quad records:

QUAD IV: (16-8)

QUAD III: (12-12) Notre Dame given 4-4 record

QUAD I: (11-13)

QUAD II: (9-15)

Because Quad IV and Quad II have a bye against each other, Quad IV will be paired with Quad I.

With these pairings here would be the divisions for 2009:

DIVISION I

Iowa

Michigan

Minnesota

Ohio State

Penn State

Wisconsin

DIVISION II

Illinois

Indiana

Michigan St

Northwestern

Notre Dame

Purdue

While divisions must change makeup at least every three years because of rotating byes, two Quads could potentially always sit in opposite divisions. Remember, scheduling is still done by cycling Quads but the Conference Championship Game is done by division.

Conclusion

The Quad System gets a bad rap from its experimentation in the WAC. The 16-team conference tried cycling five non-Quad games among 12 teams! Used by the Big Ten, six non-Quad games would cycle among nine teams, a much more equitable allocation. The WAC also used a convoluted cycling method such that some teams wouldn't see each other for six years!

The current Big Ten schedule has each team with two permanent rivals and cycles the other six games among the remaining eight teams. This is nearly identical to the Quad System. Should the Big Ten use traditional divisions then some teams will spend two or three years without playing each other.

The Quad System adds a Big Ten conference championship game without changing the Big Ten scheduling. Essentially it is the best of both worlds.

The only remaining question would be the naming of the two divisions. Specific geographic names such as East, West, North, and South would not work because the divisions are changing constituents.

General geographic nomenclature such as Midwest, Great Lakes, Old Northwest, and/or Heartland could be used. Colors are simple non-ordinal labels as well. Sponsorship might also be a consideration in this economic environment.

However, I am not sure how fond I'd be of the Outback Division winner facing the Capital One Division winner in the Citigroup Big Ten Championship Game.

Updated 2003 BCS Standings

Crayton — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 16:41:17 -0400

Following the 2003 fiasco when LSU and USC shared the National Title, the BCS conducted a major overhaul of its ranking formula. Ultimately their new formula was of sleak design and removed much of the double counting of losses and strength of schedule.

However, the BCS has never and will never release a revised pre-bowl standing. For reference here is the original 2003 standing. Here is the final standings using the new BCS formula.

	Teams	USA	AP	Comp	BCS	Old
1	USC	100	98.15	89	95.72	3
2	LSU	96	97.23	93	95.41	2
3	Oklahoma	92	91.75	96.2	93.32	1
4	Michigan	88	88.43	81	85.81	4
5	Texas	84	81.35	71.4	78.92	6
6	Ohio St	80	74.34	77.8	77.38	5
7	Florida St	72	74.34	72.2	72.85	7
8	Tennessee	76	75.57	61	70.86	8
9	Miami(FL)	68	66.15	65.8	66.65	9
10	Kansas St	64	70.83	51.4	62.08	10
11	Georgia	60	62.65	58.6	60.42	12
12	Miami(OH)	44	46.52	74.6	55.04	11
13	Iowa	56	47.45	45.8	49.75	13
14	Purdue	52	52.25	36.2	46.82	14
15	Wash St	48	39.26	20.2	35.82	16
16	Florida	36	38.09	32.2	35.43	15
17	Boise St	40	33.23	28.2	33.81	17
18	Ole Miss	32	39.2	12.2	27.8	19
19	TCU	28	24.12	29.8	27.31	18
20	Nebraska	20	17.11	26.2	21.1	20
21	Oklahoma St	16	18.4	22.6	19	21
22	Utah	4	6.52	29	13.17	22
23	Minnesota	24	8.25	0	10.75	25
24	W Virginia	12	19.69	0	10.56	NR
25	Maryland	8	13.6	9.8	10.47	23

The big change is USC replacing Oklahoma against LSU to play for the National Championship. This is the only multiple spot change inside the top 22.

Bowl Series (1986-1991): Cycle Zero

Crayton — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 20:14:48 -0400

The Good Old Days

Often cited when discussing a potential playoff scenario for college football is the “good old days” when teams played in traditional bowls and championships were voted on by coaches and sportswriters.

This rhetoric is usually employed to blame today's thirst for a playoff on the BCS. “If we went back to how it was, then fans would stop whining about playoffs.”

This is a false claim. In fact, the current BCS was originally created to avoid the implementation of a playoff.

In this, the first of the Bowl Series articles, we will look at the “good old days” and the situation which forced the creation of what is now known as the BCS.

Independence Of The Fiesta Bowl

Four college bowl games hosted the champions of major conferences. The Big Ten and Pac-10 champions played against each other in the Rose Bowl. The SEC champion played in the Sugar Bowl, the Big Eight champion in the Orange Bowl and the South West Conference (SWC) in the Cotton Bowl.

At first glance it may seem that any one vs. two matchup would be near impossible to achieve. Indeed, this was part of these bowls' prestige; it was difficult for one bowl to annually out-do the other three. This began to change with the rise of the Fiesta Bowl.

The Fiesta Bowl was originally the destination of the WAC champion until Arizona and Arizona State joined the Pac-10. Since then it grew in popularity as a destination for a top independent school. At this time the number of independent schools not only included Notre Dame and the military academies, but also current BCS members Miami, Penn State, Florida State, West Virginia, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Cincinnati.

In 1986 the top two teams in the nation were independents Miami and Penn State. Instead of playing one of the major conference champions in the Orange, Sugar, or Cotton Bowls, the two teams decided to stage a showdown in the Fiesta Bowl.

Thirst For A Championship

Following the defacto National Championship where Penn State defeated Miami in the 1987 Fiesta Bowl, the 1988 Orange Bowl scored a similar pairing of No. 1 Oklahoma and No. 2 Miami. Fans of the sport were pumped at the matchup. Prior to these two years the only one vs. two matchups had been the 1979 and 1983 Sugar Bowls, matching Penn State against Alabama and Georgia respectively.

In 1988, the top four teams in the country were all independent. Undefeated Notre Dame accepted a bid to the Fiesta Bowl against undefeated West Virginia. Miami was actually ranked second in the polls but deigned a rematch against the Fighting Irish to play against sixth ranked Nebraska at home in the Orange Bowl.

In 1989 undefeated Colorado and undefeated Notre Dame agreed to play in the Orange Bowl. Unfortunately, in Notre Dame's last game, Miami knocked the Fighting Irish to fourth place, securing second place and an appearance against No. 7 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The college football world was saved from a split championship when Miami defeated Alabama. Had Colorado won they would have been called champions. Colorado lost, and the Hurricanes secured their fourth National Championship of the decade.

Starving For A Change

1n 1990 three conference champions finished at the top of the AP poll, all with one loss. For the first time in four years, independents were on the outside looking in. Of course, because of bowl contracts, none of these three teams could play each other. Top ranked Colorado was playing in the Orange Bowl, Georgia Tech in the Citrus Bowl, and Texas in the Cotton Bowl.

The top independent, two loss Notre Dame, accepted an invitation to play against Colorado. Miami (who lost to the Irish earlier in the season) agreed to play in the Cotton Bowl against Texas. Georgia Tech and the Citrus Bowl only managed to schedule No. 19 Nebraska. Colorado eked out a 10-9 victory over the Irish which allowed Georgia Tech to win a share of the National Title with a 24-point victory over the Cornhuskers.

The dissatisfaction with a split-championship was duplicated the following year when both Miami and Washington won their bowl games, the Orange and Rose respectively, by at least twenty points. While fans called for a playoff between the Huskies and Hurricanes, many of the big bowls, their conference affiliates, and major independent teams began discussing ways to resolve the situation and create an annual National Championship Game.

End Of Bowl Cycle Zero

Change was in the air during the early '90's. Florida State, Miami, and Penn State, shook off independence to join a conference. The SWC began to slowly disintegrate. If change was to happen concerning the crowning of a National Champion it would have to happen now.

After the 1991 season, plans for a new Bowl Coalition were almost dashed when the ACC and newly formed Big East discussed plans of sending their champions to the new Blockbuster Bowl. With the death of independents, the Bowl Coalition created a new cycle of bowl games for the next three years which reflected these changes.

NHL Playoff Scenarios (updated 4/9)

Crayton — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 03:35:42 -0400

EASTERN CONFERENCE

The Eastern Conference playoff berths were wrapped up yesterday with wins by the New York Rangers and the Montreal Canadiens to secure the last two spots.

The Boston Bruins, Washington Capitals, and New Jersey Devils have each clinched their respective divisions and the top three playoff spots.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

The Northwest division comes down to two teams nearly tied for the lead. The Calgary Flames have two games remaining against Edmonton and are two points behind. The Vancouver Canucks play their final game against Colorado. The team scoring the most points in these last two games will get the title, with Calgary holding the tie-breaker.

The Anaheim Ducks can clinch with a win in either of their last two games against Dallas and Phoenix OR at least a overtime loss AND EITHER (a St. Louis regulation loss and second loss of any kind OR a Nashville loss of any kind) OR TWO OF (two St. Louis regulation losses OR a Nashville regulation loss or pair of overtime losses OR a Minnesota loss of any kind).

The St. Louis Blues can clinch a playoff spot with a win in either of their last two games against Columbus and Colorado OR at least a overtime loss AND EITHER (two Anaheim regulation losses OR a Nashville regulation loss of pair of overtime losses) OR two Nashville losses of any kind AND a Minnesota loss of any kind.

The Nashville Predators can clinch a playoff spot with a win in either of their last two games against Detroit or Minnesota AND two St. Louis regulation losses AND a Minnesota loss of any kind OR a win and overtime loss AND EITHER (two St. Louis regulation losses OR two Anaheim regulation losses) OR two wins AND EITHER (two Anaheim losses of any kind OR a St. Louis regulation loss or pair of overtime losses.

The Minnesota Wild can clinch a playoff spot with a win and at least an overtime loss in their last two games against Nashville and Columbus AND two St. Louis regulation losses AND two Nashville losses of any kind OR two wins AND a St. Louis regulation loss and second loss of any kind AND EITHER (a Nashville loss to Detroit or a Nashville loss to Minnesota in regulation)

Minnesota has only a prayer. The Wild would probably need two wins against playoff fighting opponents (including defeating Nashville in regulation) and two St. Louis losses in order to qualify. They probably have a greater chance, though, than Buffalo has in the East.

Anaheim, St. Louis, and Nashville are all fighting for the last two spots. Nashville has a better chance of knocking out St. Louis. If the Predators win both of their games and the Blues only manage 2 points in their last 2 games then Nashville is in. Anaheim only needs a win against eliminated Dallas or Phoenix.

FBS Playoff Series: Three Teams

Crayton — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 19:21:13 -0400

A Rigid Game with a Flexible Outcome

When the final BCS standings come out, how often do we find the difference between the second and third place teams such that a random pick between the two would be just as satisfying as the actual choice?

I would wager that such is the case most years. The years of 2003 and 2004 are the largest such examples of when a single playoff game would be extremely beneficial to the system. But what about years like 2005 where the top two teams are beyond obvious? Do we cancel the playoff game, or perhaps we should still seed the number two team against the third?

We can have it both ways, believe it or not, without canceling the game or placing a deserving team in an unnecessary playoff.

1) Analysis Of The Problem

In 1998 (Florida St), 2001 (Nebraska), and 2007 (Ohio St) a team with a bye week slid from outside the top two into the National Championship Game (NCG) because of a conference championship loss by a team ahead of them.

In 2006 (Florida), 2007 (LSU), and 2008 (Florida) a team with a conference championship win jumped a team which was sitting idle on the final week and landed in the second slot of the NCG.

A game at the end of the season is not just another tally to put in the win or loss column, it is a qualifying measure for teams which are at the cusp of the NCG.

While the above sets of examples show that these games have the propensity to make (2006, 2007, 2008) as much as break (1998, 2001, 2007) a team's national title hopes, it is important to note that there are many other teams which don't have a game to showcase their talent at the end of the season.

Also of note is that the three teams above which slid into the NCG all lost, while the three teams which jumped into it all won. More evidence that an end of the year showcase is a great way to get only the best teams into the NCG.

2) Showcasing Teams On The Cusp

In the above years (1998, 2001, 2006, 2007, 2008) a discrepancy between teams playing in conference championship games the last week and teams sitting the last week was highlighted. Beyond this, it is important to note that sometimes two teams can be sitting idle on the last week, both on the cusp of the NCG with nothing but human opinion separating the two of them.

To absolve these two circumstances, comes the creation of a BCS play-in game. This game is not a play-in for the NCG but rather to the BCS as a whole (a concept more pertinent when only 8 teams participated in the series). It functions in a similar way to the current Big 12, SEC, and ACC championship games.

The top two teams in the second to last BCS poll which have no game scheduled on the final week will participate in the BCS play-in game. If the top team in the poll has a bye that week then they may freely abstain from the BCS play-in game because they are, for all intensive purposes, the best team in the nation.

The play-in game will feature two top flight teams in a game which will either elevate the winner to the NCG or at least keep them in competition with other teams playing their conference championship games that weekend.

3) The Tangible Outcomes Of A BCS Play-In

In five of the BCS's eleven years, the winner of the play-in would be all but guaranteed a NCG spot.

*1998: No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 5 Ohio State (UCLA and Kansas State lost on the last week)

*2000: No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Miami (these teams were neck and neck in the actual BCS)

*2001: No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 4 Nebraska (Tennessee lost on the last week)

*2002: No. 2 Ohio St vs. No. 4 Iowa (both 8-0 in Big Ten, Iowa could have vaulted Georgia)

2007: No. 3 Ohio St vs. No. 4 Georgia (Missouri and West Virginia both lost on the last week)

In three of the BCS's eleven years, the winner of the play-in game would have a chance at the NCG.

*1999: No. 2 Va Tech vs. No. 4 Wisconsin (No. 3 Nebraska won the Big 12)

2006: No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 5 LSU (USC lost the last week; No. 4 Florida won the SEC)

2008: No. 3 Texas vs. No. 6 Utah (No. 4 Florida beat No. 1 Alabama)

And finally, three of the past eleven years (notably the same 3 given in this article's introduction) would have had a minimal impact on the NCG.

*2003: No. 4 Michigan vs. No. 6 Texas (USC vs. LSU in the NCG)

2004: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 6 Utah (USC vs. Oklahoma in the NCG; Auburn still left out)

2005: No. 4 Penn State vs. No. 6 Ohio St (both 7-1 in Big Ten; USC vs. Texas in NCG)

*updated BCS values for years up to 2003

Conclusion

Altogether, 10 teams which before were sitting, watching other teams play their way into the NCG will have been given a chance to compete and prove their own meddle. An additional six teams which went on to play in the NCG will also have been forced to prove their own worthiness on the field.

Imagine the excitement this year should Oklahoma inexplicably lose to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship. Could Texas take care of business against the Utes to prove they belong in the NCG, or would Utah prove it is the real deal by beating the Longhorns and advancing to the NCG against the Florida Gators.

While not a true three-team playoff, this model would grant much larger access to the NCG. Indeed, this very year (and 2004) would prove an example where a mid-major has a chance at the title. In years where the top teams are known (2005) the play-in game would still be a marquee matchup. In years where No. 2 and No. 3 are close (2000) the game would be the penultimate matchup of the year.

Tim Tebow and Gators Prepare for Fourth Straight National Championship Run

Crayton — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 21:15:43 -0400

This isn't a title you will be seeing in newspapers as the kickoff of football season approaches, but such an alternate reality is not that far removed from our own.

Every Game Matters

At the conclusion of the topsy-turvy 2007 college football season, at least nine teams found themselves a single loss shy of the National Championship. No. 3 Virginia Tech and No. 4 Oklahoma were just barely edged by No. 2 LSU in the final week. No. 5 Georgia was a loss to Tennessee short of playing in the SEC Championship.

No. 7 USC and No. 11 Arizona would not have missed had they not lost two Pac-10 games. No. 6 Missouri and No. 9 West Virginia were in the top two slots before losses in the final week, and No. 8 Kansas was in the same position the week before.

Finally, No. 12 Florida was a loss to Georgia shy of playing in the SEC Championship.

So, how much does this near alternate reality diverge from ours?

No. 11 Florida over No. 18 Georgia (37-35) in Jacksonville

The Bulldogs stomped (literally) over the Gators 42-30, carried by running back Knowshon Moreno who posted a career high of 188 yards and three touchdowns. The young Florida defense not only fell to Moreno but subsequently freed up Matthew Stafford to throw three touchdowns on only eleven attempts.

On the other side of the ball, Tim Tebow was held to a career low -15 yards rushing with 6 sacks. With two and a half minutes remaining in the game, Tebow then fumbled a snap away to the Bulldogs, ending any chance of overcoming the 12 point deficit.

While no single play determined the outcome of the game, a stop of the Georgia's final scoring drive could have given the Gators the appropriate momentum to finally overtake the Bulldogs on the scoreboard.

A win here in Jacksonville, itinerant games staying the same, would have placed the Gators in a tie for the SEC East with Tennessee, who they destroyed earlier in the year 59-20. In this case the Gators would then be heading to the SEC Championship to face LSU.

No. 4 Florida over No. 7 LSU (22-19) in Atlanta

The SEC Championship game usually has National Championship implications. This year would be the special case when both teams have an outside shot. This is in contrast to the actual game in which No. 14 Tennessee lost to LSU (14-21).

While hindsight may be 20-20 and played games can be analyzed for fatal flaws, a game that never was is difficult to recreate. Because of that, we will have to look at the intangibles, and the factors that make this game different than LSU's victory over Florida (28-24) at home in October.

This earlier game was a played a week following Florida's devastating (17-20) home loss to Auburn. The SEC Championship is played a week after a loss by LSU which was just as devastating. The Tigers were the top ranked team in the nation but were conquered in the third overtime by unranked Arkansas.

The situation is altogether similar to the 2006 SEC Championship the year before when LSU dashed Arkansas's National Championship hopes with a season ending loss before the Razorbacks played the Gators. The Gators defeated Arkansas in that game 38-28.

Another interesting factor in this game is LSU quarterback Ryan Perrilloux, commonly used as a running quarterback behind starter Matt Flynn in a role similar to Tim Tebow's the year before behind Chris Leak.

For this game, Perrilloux replaced Matt Flynn as starter because of injury. This is a favorable alteration for the Gators because of Perrilloux's inexperience over the season and the Gators' experience with a running quarterback of their own.

The score I've chosen reflects the failure of a late game two point conversion attempt by Ryan Perrilloux which LSU used to defeat Tennessee in the actual SEC Championship. The Gators' strong offense led by Tim Tebow would take the ball down for the final score, completing a two-point conversion of his own for good measure.

Following this game, No.1 Missouri would lose to No. 9 Oklahoma (38-17) and No. 2 West Virginia would lose to unranked Pittsburgh (13-9), catapulting No. 3 Ohio State and No. 4 Florida into a National Championship rematch.

No. 2 Florida over No. 1 Ohio State (38-34) in New Orleans

A year removed from completing back to back basketball National Championships with a win over Ohio State, the Gators' football team would be attempting the same thing, this time having already beat the Ohio State football team in the previous National Championship (41-14).

Controversy surrounding the teams selected to play in the National Championship would have been reduced with the Gators winning the SEC. The largest beef would probably have come from an 11-1 Big 12 team which was locked out of their conference's championship game. (sound familiar?)

Ohio State actually played, and lost, to LSU in the National Championship (38-24) and it is tempting to jump on the bandwagon that the Big Ten can't win the big ones, especially against the SEC.

In a season where no team stood head and shoulders above the rest, this game would be closer than the blow out the Gators served up the year before. While the Gators actually lost in the nearby Outback Bowl to Michigan (41-35), I'm taking a more confident Florida team as National Champions in an exciting second edition of Florida v. Ohio State.

Beyond 2007

While the affect of having won a second consecutive National Championship would obviously have far reaching psychological affects on the Florida Gators and football fans across the country, we'll assume 2008 season was played exactly as was, culminating in Florida's third National Championship in as many years with a (24-14) victory over Oklahoma.

How many teams have won three National Championships in a row? Well that is hard to determine, but such a dominance would find near equivalence to the Nebraska Cornhusker teams of the 90's and Miami Hurricane teams of the late 80's.

Just think of how the outcome of one game in Jacksonville could affect college football history. Remember during this coming season when you find your team 5-2, that every game is meaningful and contains that inherent excitement that comes from a college football game.

FBS Playoff Series: Sixteen Teams

Crayton — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 12:33:25 -0400

Moving From 'Playoff' to 'Tournament'

Trying to nail down how a 16-team playoff would work led me to a few realizations.

16 teams is way different than eight.

With eight teams you can pick the cream of the crop. To do that with 16 teams would be redundant and add an extra week of playoff games that only muddle the picture.

No, in order to have a 16 teams you need to invite the 11 conference winners and five at large teams. This changes the postseason from a playoff to an all out tournament. Inviting teams from every conference has the propensity to throw the bowl season for a loop.

I will try my best to allow bowl games their traditional time and place. This best way I found this could be accomplished is not to play more than the semifinals while other bowl games are going on.

1) Who Plays Whom?

To seed the 16 teams straight you would have many teams playing away games where only their most die-hard of fans could travel. For example, it is difficult to say that Buffalo must go all the way to Oklahoma to lose a game when so many more fans could watch the game at Penn State.

Originally this led me to give home games to the top eight teams and to create four geographically close matchups like Troy at Alabama or Boise St at Utah; allowing the other four games to lie closer to traditional matchups.

However, this creates havoc when an eight seed (Penn State) plays a nearby 16 seed (Buffalo) while a 12 seed (Cincy) flies across the country to play a 5 seed (USC). While some smaller schools had a better chance of seeing the first-round game, any semblance of a proper bracket and seeding might as well be thrown out the window.

Pray for me, because I dreamed a solution the other night (there are more important things to dream about). In order to keep games regional while maintaining a functional seeding, teams are placed in geographical groupings (West, South, East, and North) of four teams each.

2) The Playoff Schedule

Teams are seeded one through four in each region and placed there by a committee. Conferences place all of their teams in the same region and send no more than three teams so as not to monopolize a region.

The placement of teams will often be obvious (USC plays in the West), but sometimes choice will present itself and the choice to put a mid-major champion in a No. 4 seed takes precedent so that a No. 1 seed can have an easy game.

The first two rounds will be played at the home of the higher seed, both giving an advantage to the higher ranked team and allowing students and local fans to attend these games en masse.

The first two rounds will be played the first two weeks of December. This will mean the shortening of the regular season OR replacing Conference Championship Games (CCGs) with the greater playoff.

This means that after regional play is concluded no bowl games will be missed and all 12 teams which have not won their region will be eligible for their conferences' traditional bowl games.

3) The Bracket

Replacing CCGs, here is the 16 team playoff bracket:

WEST
No 1. USC (11-1)
No 2. Utah (12-0)
No 3. Boise St (12-0)
No 4. TCU (10-2)

SOUTH
No 1. Oklahoma (11-1)
No 2. Texas (11-1)
No 3. Texas Tech (11-1)
No 4. Tulsa (10-2)

EAST
No 1. Alabama (12-0)
No 2. Florida (11-1)
No 3. Ga Tech (9-3) yeah, they actually win the conference tie-breakers
No 4. Troy (8-4)

NORTH
No 1. Penn State (11-1)
No 2. Ohio State (10-2)
No 3. Cincy (11-2)
No 4. Ball St (12-0)

Which team is the best mid-major out west? We'll find out. What better way to break the three way tie for the Big 12 South! Troy gets a nearby game. Cincy and Ohio State engage in a battle for best in the state. This looks like roses all around.

As all other teams are pidgeonholed into their bowl games, the final four teams are given more than 2 weeks to prepare for the National Championship Semifinals.

To conserve on travel and enhance the bowl experience, the site of the National Championship will also be the site of one of the New Years Day semifinal games. For the time being that site will continue to rotate among the current four BCS sites.

The Rose Bowl will host annually the winner of the West and North regions (a compromise between being a marquee bowl and keeping ties to the Big Ten and Pac-10).

What will happen to the BCS? I'm not sure I care. For the sake of argument they will add a fifth bowl and maintain current automatic qualification and at large procedures. While the non-Semifinal BCS games may have the air of consolation games, the bowls are still vacation opportunities for tons of fans.

My guess is that eventually only one bowl site (of Orange, Sugar, Fiesta) will stick to the semifinal format (the others pursuing more traditional conference pairings). One anticipated result is the Sugar Bowl becoming the National Semifinal, the Orange Bowl hosting the top ACC and top Big East teams, and the Fiesta Bowl hosting two at larges with the Cotton Bowl hosting the top Big 12 and top SEC teams

Conclusion

The big conferences are getting what they want right now, one or two big money games with minimal risk. A large playoff would greatly cut into their share of the playoff pie and put their product at risk for market failure (they might get upset and lose both money and prestige).

This is exactly what the college football fan is looking for, however. The playoff will generate loads of wealth and, with less than a third of the spots at large, the wealth of the regular season will take only a nominal hit. In fact, we might start paying closer attention to races in the mid-major conferences, translating into more money.

The playoff format above is compelling. It does not stomp all over the existing bowls. It produces a champion in a timely manner (less than a week later than currently). It does not dilute the regular season with excessive at large bids. It rewards better teams with home field. It rewards fans with local games. All that is required for implementation is a force to redistribute the wealth so as to generate more.

I am personally (or 'currently') in favor of a four team playoff but anything more than eight teams is an entirely different animal, a tournament. This 16 team model is on all accounts the best tournament possible for college football.

Other Iterations of the FBS Playoff Series:

Two Teams

Four Teams

Eight Teams

The Mountain West Conference's New BCS Trick

Crayton — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 19:30:08 -0500

The Mountain West has issued their proposed changes to the BCS. Here they are:

The Pledge

1) 10 Teams make it to the BCS games.

2) Conferences earning automatic qualification (AQ) for the next cycle of games must have a 40 percent winning record against teams from current AQ conferences.

3) Notre Dame and a mid-major conference champion are eligible for BCS berths by the same current rules.

4) Computers and polls are scrapped in favor of a 12 member committee, which will rank teams at the end of the year.

5) This committee will choose which teams earn any remaining at-large berths.

6) The two lowest ranked of the 10 BCS teams play in a fifth BCS Bowl (Cotton, Gator, Outback, Peach).

7) The top eight teams are placed in their traditional bowls with the committee overseeing all pairings.

8) The semifinals and final are played approximately one week after each previous round.

The Turn

The MWC did a very good job of arguing for its inclusion as an automatically qualifying conference. The proposal (found here) shows the top seven conferences (BCS+MWC) all have at least a 44 percent winning record against current AQ conferences. The next closest is the WAC with 17 percent.

I do wonder how much these would change (probably not too much) if games against the MWC were included, as if to double check that the cutoff of 40 percent isn't too arbitrary. At the current rate, the MWC will get an AQ spot in 2012 and should have a team qualify for the mid-major berth each of the intervening three years.

The rules for Notre Dame and current mid-majors earning a spot in the BCS stay the same, which is a good move. Although I, personally, wouldn't mind combining these into a single berth, Notre Dame would.

The next part is rather sketch. A "committee" [quotes preserved from MWC proposal] comes up with the final BCS Standings after the last regular season game is played. The only purpose of the standing is to provide a legitimate eight team field; which means in reverse that the "committee" only uses the standing to validate their own picks for the playoff.

I respect the choice of a committee to determine that last one or two at large spots (2008, Ohio State, Boise State, or Texas Tech; 2007, Missouri or Kansas) but coming up with a top 25 to validate that simple choice seems like overkill, or an attempt to compensate (read: cover their butts) for any poor decisions after the fact.

I will not comment on the overall feasibility of a playoff, because under the MWC proposal, it will be a reality. Forget about PAC-10 and Rose Bowl considerations, and don't worry about too many games and destruction of the regular season, because those have already been passed over.

I believe it was intelligent not to limit the BCS to only the eight playoff teams. This allows AQ Conference Champions that didn't finish too strongly (Cincy and Virginia Tech this year) to play in the BCS without taking up those precious playoff spots.

That fifth BCS Bowl seems like a consolation game, but as long as the payout remains high then it is a rewarding trip all around.

I know most of you (me first) are wondering what exactly the matchups would be. Assuming that the "committee" would have ended up ranking teams as the BCS actually did, here are the likely matchups from last year:

The Prestige

No 1. Oklahoma vs. No 6. Utah in the Fiesta Bowl
No 2. Florida vs. No 7. Texas Tech in the Sugar Bowl
No 3. Texas vs. No 4. Alabama in the Orange Bowl
No 5. USC vs. No 8. Penn State in the Rose Bowl
No 12. Cincy vs. No 19. Va Tech in the fifth BCS Bowl

Neither Ohio State or Boise State are in the playoff because the "committee" always picks the higher ranked team, after a careful decision on where to rank them. My guess is that Texas Tech would not have gotten a top eight spot and instead Utah would have played Florida with Ohio State playing Oklahoma.

In 2008, Utah is not yet in an AQ conference, otherwise Boise State would have gotten the final spot.

Taking the teams which won their bowls, here are the semifinals:

No 2. Florida vs. No 6. Utah
No 3. Texas vs. No 5. USC

This playoff would no doubt be entertaining. Those two semifinals and the national championship would together average higher ratings than the top three BCS bowls actually did this year. Add in an additional two top quality games and you have a cash cow.

Just for fun, here are the 2007 and 2006 playoff matchups:

2007
No 1. Ohio State vs. No 7. USC in the Rose Bowl
No 2. LSU vs. No 8. Kansas in the Sugar Bowl
No 3. Virginia Tech vs. No 6. Missouri in the Orange Bowl
No 4. Oklahoma vs. No 5. Georgia in the Fiesta Bowl
No 9. W Virginia vs. No 10. Hawaii in the fifth BCS Bowl

No 2. LSU vs. No 7. USC
No 5. Georgia vs. No 6. Missouri

2006
No 1. Ohio State vs. No 5. USC in the Rose Bowl
No 2. Florida vs. No 8. Boise St in the Sugar Bowl
No 3. Michigan vs. No 6. Louisville in the Orange Bowl
No 4. LSU vs. No 7. Wisconsin in the Fiesta Bowl
No 10. Oklahoma vs. No 14. W Forest in the fifth BCS Bowl

No 2. Florida vs. No 6. Louisville
No 4. LSU vs. No 5. USC

Gosh, if Alabama beats Texas in 2008, and the higher ranked team wins each of the six above semifinals, then we could have seen SEC-SEC in the national championship each of the past three years.

Could the NFL Handle Another Expansion?

Crayton — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 17:28:35 -0500

What makes a 32-team NFL so great?

What is the one thing preventing the NFL from expanding from their current 32-team, 16-game model? The fact that it works so darned good.

Teams are divided into two historical conferences with four divisions per conference. Each team plays its division rivals twice (six games), (half) six of the remaining 12 teams in its conference, and (a fourth) four of the 16 teams in the other conference every year.

If you were to add a 33rd or even up to a 36th team you would ruin the current symmetry of the NFL schedule. Let us look at the two greatest strengths of the current schedule:

1. Division Rivalries

The tradition of playing a home and home against each team in your division is maintained. This has proved very conducive for rivalries, even when the cities are far away (see Dallas and Washington).

2. Every team plays each other

When was the last time the Buccaneers played in Buffalo? Trick question they never have. Under the current format teams from opposing conferences now play each other once every four years. The Bills played in Tampa in 2005 and finally the Bucs will play in Buffalo in 2009 (unless the game is moved to Toronto).

So how does the league go about expansion without sending the schedule into the wood chipper?

Unfortunately it would require realignment. Three conferences of 11 teams with each conference able to expand to 12, independent of the others. The initial schedule would be playing 10 games in conference and three games against each of the other conferences.

This preserves the notion of playing every team about every four years, but what about division rivals?

Let us look at an example from the new Northern Conference. Because each conference will eventually expand to 12 teams, the future model will be three divisions of four in each conference. While there are only 11 teams, there will be an uneven alignment of a division of four and a division of seven.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

**American Division**

Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers

**West Division**

Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans
Los Angeles
New Orleans Saints
St. Louis Rams
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks

Teams within the American Division will play each other twice, as normal, and will play four of the other seven teams in the West Division. Teams in the West division will play each other once and there will be six games left over to be played amongst the West Division teams.

These six games can be spread amongst the teams so that home and home rivalries change annually, or teams can be paired in two groups of three with the seventh team playing every team once.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(American) play each other twice, one other division once and the Seahawks

Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers

(Pacific) play each other twice, Midwest Division once, half of the American Division and the Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles
San Francisco 49ers

(Midwest) play each other twice, Pacific Division once, half of the American Division and the Seahawks

Houston Texans
New Orleans Saints
St. Louis Rams

(no division) play all 10 conference teams once

Seattle Seahawks

In this example a 12th team added to the conference would allow it to be split into three even divisions of four, as Seattle would move to either the Pacific or Midwest division and the 12th team would go to the other.

What is after 33 teams?

A 34th team, of course. And if the League does move to a 34th team then the 17- and 18-game schedules become possibilities. Once 36 teams are active then teams play six games in-division plus (half) four of the eight remaining in-conference teams and one fourth (third, if jumping to 18 game schedules) of out of conference teams. Each of these ratios is identical to the current standards.

The playoffs would need to be altered. As the old conferences are tossed in favor of keeping division rivalries, the playoffs are also reformed. Part of this includes adding one more team to the playoffs. Because there are an odd number of conferences, teams might play inter-conference games and wild cards are not restricted per conference. (Anyone think 11-5 New England deserved a spot before 9-6-1 Philadelphia?)

The top team from each conference gets a bye. Next the three division leaders from each conference are guaranteed a spot (in an 11 team conferences the third division leader is the second place team from the division of seven).

Finally, the top four wild card teams (equaling 13 total teams) regardless of conference are given a spot. The number of playoff teams will not be even among the conferences. Here is an example playoff using this year's standings.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Arizona *bye
2. San Diego
3. New Orleans

NORTHERN CONFERENCE

1. Indianapolis *bye
2. Pittsburgh
3. Minnesota
4. Miami (wild card)
5. New England (wild card)

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE

1. Tennessee *bye
2. NY Giants
3. Carolina
4. Baltimore (wild card)
5. Atlanta (wild card)

The top team in each conference without a bye plays the bottom team. In any round if two conferences have an odd number of participants then the middle ranked team of those two conferences play against each other. The division winner or team with a better record is given home field advantage for every game.

Mixed games will always be scheduled earliest on a weekend so that it can be determined if a later game is matching the final two teams from a conference or not. This helps determine clear cut conference champions.

One of the worst division "winners" will end up not hosting a game, in this example that is New Orleans.

First Round

West Wild Card New Orleans @ *San Diego
North Wild Card New England @ *Pittsburgh
North Wild Card *Miami @ Minnesota
South Wild Card Atlanta @ *NY Giants
South Wild Card *Baltimore @ Carolina

Second Round

Mixed Divisional *Pittsburgh @ NY Giants
West Final San Diego @ *Arizona
North Divisional Miami @ *Indianapolis
South Final *Baltimore @ Tennessee

Third Round

Mixed Final Baltimore @ *Arizona
North Final *Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis

Super Bowl

*Pittsburgh vs. Arizona @ Tampa

Here are the full divisions of the 33-team NFL. Miami and Dallas are geographic outliers that have been placed in their divisions based on traditional rivalries. Teams maintain their current NFC/AFC affiliations only for the purpose of the Pro Bowl, another nod back to tradition.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

**American Division**

Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers

**West Division**

Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans
Los Angeles
New Orleans Saints
St. Louis Rams
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks

NORTHERN CONFERENCE

**Central Division**

Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings

**Northeast Division**

Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Jets
Pittsburgh Steelers

SOUTHERN CONFERNCE

**Atlantic Division**

Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins

**South Division**

Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Carolina Panthers
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans

FBS Playoff Series: Eight Teams

Crayton — Sat, 13 Dec 2008 16:12:31 -0500

Streamlining Our Current Playoff Games

For the SEC, Big 12, and ACC the Conference Championship Games are really like playoff games. One team makes it into the BCS, and 24 of the 26 losers end up on the outside looking in.

These championship games have really been about the money first and honoring their playoff-like position only when it can result in even more money.

The simple solution is to cash in on this extra money the playoff like atmosphere brings and order these games into a true playoff.

In previous iterations of the FBS Playoff Series we've looked at these Conference Championship Games and other potential games as "play-in" games for the BCS. Now, we will examine three ways in which these will become true "playoff" games!

1) Re-Structuring The Conference Championship Games

The top eight teams as ranked by a poll (BCS, AP, something new) make the playoff with the only exception that a conference can send no more than two teams. There is no need to grant automatic bids to teams ranked in the teens or twenties and dilute the field.

The sites for these four games will be determined ahead of schedule and some will be hosted by conferences like the Big 12, SEC and perhaps also the ACC. If two teams from one of these host conferences qualifies then they will be matched in their Conference Championship Game.

In the case where the Big 12 or SEC fail to place two teams in the playoff, then their conference champion will be determined by record as other conferences do.

Beside the Big 12 and SEC, the two other games will be hosted by the top 2 conference champions (not limited to BCS conferences) of that year. Matchups will then be paired by the highest-ranked team remaining against the lowest-ranked host champion and on down the line.

This year's matchups, using AP rankings:

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Florida (SEC Quarterfinal)
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 4 Oklahoma (Big 12 Quarterfinal)
No. 5 USC vs. No. 9 Boise State (West Quarterfinal)
No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 7 Utah (East Quarterfinal)

2) Maintaining The Bowl Season

Firstly, the ACC and the Big East will not be forced to give up their automatic BCS bids. All BCS bids are determined as normal except instead of the top two teams automatically receiving placement, the four quarterfinal winners will.

These four teams are matched top to bottom around New Year's in two of the BCS bowls. Three more BCS Bowls (including a fifth, like the Cotton) are also played at this time, and the National Championship is played more than a week later.

In the example where the Big Ten Runner-up makes the playoff but the Big Ten Champion does not then the Big Ten Champion still makes the Rose Bowl, although they are ineligible for the National Championship.

The revenue associated with both the BCS as well as every other bowl stays as is. Because the quarterfinal games are played at the conclusion of the regular season the losers of these games are all bowl eligible.

3) Keep The Money Going To The Right Places

Revenue for the Quarterfinal games will be distributed equally among each participating team's conference with an extra share given to host conferences (the SEC, and Big 12) for forfeiting the right to a Championship Game if two teams do not place.

Qualifications for becoming a host conference include having the NCAA mandated minimum of 12 teams needed to host a conference championship game and a minimum performance requirement, like placing a team in the playoff twice in the last four years.

The SEC, Big 12, and ACC all qualify in this manner, although the ACC would rarely again see a true Championship Game.

The SEC would make more money on this game provided they place two teams in the playoff and on average (incl. years with one playoff team) would be breaking even. If only one Big 12 team makes the playoff then they would receive only slightly less than they do traditionally, so the Big 12 on average would be receiving more money.

Other conferences from the Big East to the Mountain West would also be receiving a substantial benefit from these additional playoff games (est. 6 million per participant).

Conclusion

It might take a miracle for the SEC to agree right now on any playoff larger than four teams. The last time an SEC team was outside the top four prior to their conference championship was 2000.

This model would award the best teams without penalizing (at least not monetarily) the larger conferences. Even throwing out the caveat of a non-BCS Champion getting a bid if in the top 14 or 18 and keeping the postseason field limited to eight and not 10, there would be more Playoff "Busters," SIX, if using the AP polls.

Many fans want a playoff but tacking a large playoff on top of the playoff-like Conference Champion Games, is a flawed approach. These need to be combined and this is the model that does just that.

More Iterations Of The FBS Playoff Series

Two Teams

Four Teams

Sixteen Teams