Bleacher Report - Articles by Rob Kildoo

(Amature) Scouting Mat Latos

Rob Kildoo — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 20:10:31 -0400

As I walk to my seats in the Stars and Stripes Club (thanks Jay), I hear the announcer transport me to my childhood. Starting in centerfield for the San Diego Padres… Tony Gwynn! (Ok, fine, my early childhood before Tony Gwynn was relegated to RF). As I realize that this isn’t Field of Dreams and I’m not Moonlight Graham, I snap back in the game at hand.

Down the road the Washington Nationals will sign the most heralded pitching prospect in the last 25 years, and yes they will sign him. Tonight, the Padres No. 1 prospect was on the mound, 6’5” Mat Latos. After his recovery from from an oblique injury that limited him to 56 innings he returned to the Padres farm system to post a 5-1 record with a 1.91 ERA and a 9 K’s per nine innings. Impressive numbers to say the least.

After Latos’ first pitch twenty people within earshot all said a collective “whoa." The ball snapped in the catchers mitt accompanied by what sounded like a movie sound effect.

Latos sits at 93-95 and has touched 97 a few times. He has good tail on that big fastball and has a good slider with solid depth.

He gave up two solo homers on mistakes he left belt high. Both of those pitches were a result of mechanical errors and nothing to worry about long term.

The only hole in his game is his lack of a great breaking pitch. He flashed a solid curve twice, once getting the strikeout. Without a good breaking pitch, Latos is to rely of his overpowering fastball.

The big knock on Latos going into the 2006 draft wasn’t physical, it was mental. Supposedly he had composure issues and was tough to coach.

I was watching closely after Latos gave up two singles to lead off the fourth. Latos battled with Adam Dunn and coaxed a bad swing on an inside slider… double play. After a walk, he threw fastball after fastball challenging the hitter and eventually getting a lazy fly ball. Not once during the inning did he show frustration. More importantly, not once during the entire game did I see him shake off a call.

Suffice it to say, I was impressed. This kid has top of the rotation pitches and a great frame. I’d be surprised if next year this kid wasn’t in the top 20 in k’s in the majors and on his way to a great career.

A pitcher with this much talent, well he makes a fan say “whoa.”

Manny's Shame Reminds Us of Griffey's Greatness

Rob Kildoo — Fri, 08 May 2009 10:55:32 -0400

When I was growing up in San Diego, Tony Gwynn was my sports hero. He may be more synonymous with his team than is any other player. Watching him hit to the 5.5 hole every year was unbelievable. Some of my happiest memories growing up were of me and my mom watching baseball and cheering for Tony Gwynn.

While Tony was my hero, Ken Griffey Jr. was my favorite player.

Even when I was as a little kid, Griffey converted me into a quasi-Mariners fan because I just loved watching him play. I remember thinking that God never created a more perfect player.

“The Kid” could do it all. He had that beautiful upper-cut swing; he hit for power, average, ran the bases, played unbelievable center field, and always smiled when he played.

With the news breaking that Manny Ramirez took a banned substance, I’m left with only a few great players who remain untainted.

Is it Alex Rodriguez? Nope. Barry Bonds? Nope. Mark McGuire? Nope. Sammy Sosa? Probably nope.

They are Rickey Henderson, Cal Ripken, and Tony Gwynn, who will all be in Cooperstown, sitting on the dividing line between the previous era and the Steroids Era. No accusations surround these men. They were clearly players that were amongst the greatest of all time.

Leaving Henderson, Ripken, and Gwynn behind in the dust, however, is the one man who can preserve some happy memories from a generation of ball players: Ken Griffey Jr.

Griffey was elected to 13 all-star games. He won the MVP and was in the top five in voting for five of six seasons. Griffey won 10 straight gold gloves. During his years in Seattle, Griffey had an OPS+ of 149, meaning he was basically 50 percent better then you’re average player.

In the post season, he hit .290, .367, and .580. In the ALCS, he was even better, hitting .333, .440, and .571.

Baseball Reference lists his best comparables as Frank Robinson and Willie Mays. Willie Mays seems appropriate.

Griffey is sitting on 614 home runs, good for fifth behind Willie, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, and Barry Bonds*.

With the news of Manny, Barry, Big Mac, and Sosa, I’m left with one revelation. If—and, of course, it is still a big "if"—Griffey was clean, then he truly is the one whom we should put in the pantheon of the greatest players of all time. That, I think, is something that isn’t talked about enough.

It only makes the memories sweeter: those of Griffey making a catch, seemingly everyday, over the center field wall, or of towering home runs in the upper deck of the Kingdome—not lasers, but majestic blasts that didn’t seem to land till he touches home plate.

I don’t know if Griffey was clean; I doubt I ever will know for sure. My heart tells me he was, but maybe that’s just my way of preserving the last great player of a generation.

Why the Nationals Will Be the Most Improved Team in 2009

Rob Kildoo — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 21:55:39 -0400

If you asked me to explain baseball to someone living in a cave I'd start by saying:

"The goal of baseball is to score more runs than your opponent."

We often make things way too complicated. That's what good teams do. Some great teams score a little more, some prevent a little more, but ultimately, all great teams score significantly more then they allow.

For a team to improve, at any kind of a dramatic rate, they have to improve one or both sides quickly.

In 2007, the Rays scored 782 runs and allowed 944, for a difference of -162. In 2008, they scored 774 and allowed 671, for a difference of +103.

Notice something? They scored less in their magic 2008 season, but they allowed 273 runs less—that's just astounding.

For the Nats to improve in 2009, they need to improve from a league worst of -184 runs. Let's break down how the Nats have made huge strides on both sides.

Scoring Runs

1. Adam Dunn. While a liability in the field, he's probably a 25 run upgrade by himself. He continues to be underrated.

2. Youth gets better. Milledge, Dukes, and scores of others are all expected to take steps forward. Don't believe me? Take a look at how many Nats get drafted into fantasy leagues.

3. Nick Johnson. Ok, this might be a long shot, but when healthy, he's a quality first baseman with a bat and a glove.

4. Dimitri Young. Just kidding, I wanted to see if you were paying attention.

Preventing Runs

1. Scott Olsen. He's a good young pitcher who, at worst, is going to be league average. Compared to last year that's a huge improvement.

2. Jordan Zimmerman. He has excelled at every level. I don't know if I buy his potential as an ace, but a very good number two would be worth 20-30 runs on this team.

3. Daniel Cabrera. He could really be a five ERA pitcher with control problems, but he has electric stuff and certainly has more upside than Odalis Perez.

4. Strasburg. Would I be surprised if they didn't sign him—maybe, but not stunned. If the Nats do get him inked, he's ready for the majors right now.

No one's expecting this team to be in the World Series, but changing that -184 to a -40 would mean this team would be a 70+ win team. That my friends, in the words of Herm Edwards, is something to build on. Add Strasburg and some help in free agency, and the Nats really aren't that far from contending.

I think the Nats will win 72 games this year, in a tough division.

For the first time, Nats fans be hopeful, help is around the corner. The Nats may not be the Rays, but for Nats fans .500 is the World Series.

Why Signing Adam Dunn Is Smarter Than You Think

Rob Kildoo — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 09:44:05 -0500

It finally happened. Adam Dunn is a Washington National. The deal made too much sense not to happen. The Nats' GM has always been a big Dunn fan and was GM of the Reds as Dunn grew into one of the best power-hitters in the game.

Dunn signed for two-years, $20 Million in what was a surprising signing. Surprising that a contender didn't have room for Dunn on their team. Dunn's OPS+ is always well above league average and hitting 40 homers exactly for four straight years is actually pretty incredible.

Yes, he's not the greatest fielder. Yes, his average is pretty poor. But he does two things very well: his OBP is basically over .370 ever year, and he hits the crap out of the ball.

Everyone overvalues average quite a bit, a hitter's job, fundamentally is not to make outs. Dunn does that extremely well.

Just look at Dunn's similar batters through age 28:

Some mighty impressive names on that list.

Here's why this signing is better than you think. Getting Dunn signed to a short contract where can be an exciting new addition is great. He'll play 1B (I assume) to limit his liability. So far so good.

He's going to be a valuable trade chip, mark my words. In Baseball, teams aren't allowed to trade draft picks, and the Nats don't have a lot of assets to kick-start their farm system.

For the price of $10 million, the Nats have aquired themselves a valuable trade chip at the deadline for the inevitable 1B/OF/DH injury to a contender.

Since he's on a reasonable two-year deal, contenders will see more value in him as a six-month rental and thus will be willing to offer more in return. This Dunn signing gives the Nats a half year a good production and an option to turn the next year and a half into a couple of quality prospects to fill out the farm.

Bravo Nats. Bravo.

Five More Questions for the Washington Nationals 2009 Season

Rob Kildoo — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 17:12:25 -0500

Clap if you think that Nationals are going to compete for a playoff spot near year...

<crickets chirping>

OK, then.

The Nationals need to start thinking about their future. Nationals fans don't wants their team to feign effort. The way to get the DC fan-base enthusiasm going is to show them that we WILL compete, eventually.

Everyone was excited about the Rays last season. I was excited about the Rays last season, but lest we forget this team had 10 losing seasons before last year's miracle. The Nats need to start show casing what little young talent they have, and finding any players the Baseball America's of the world missed.

With that in mind, here are my five burning questions going into the season...

1. Will they play the kids?

When I said feign effort here's what I meant. The following players got more than 50 AB's and are either over 30 or don't fit into a rebuilding effort: Christian Guzman, Willie Harris, Ronnie Belliard, Aaron Boone, Dimitri Young and Paul Lo Duca.

The following pitchers got at least 50IP: Odalis Perez, Jesus Colome, Tim Redding.

Why? It's a simple question. Most of these players were terrible, with a couple of exceptions. Young cheap farm-system players can suck just like older veteran players can suck.

I've never been one to believe in "clubhouse guys" making a big difference, especially on terrible teams. Let the kids play, it literally could not be worse.

2. Will they trade everything not nailed down or named Jordan Zimmerman?

This team signed silly deals with Dimitri Young and stubbornly refused to trade players like Chad Cordero when they had the chance, how'd that work out? Look if it were me, anyone would be available, including Ryan Zimmerman.

Zim's been the best player on this team, but really that's not saying much. After his stellar rookie year his OPS+ (a stat that is park adjusted, one that I use to help compare players) is roughly league average. He does play outstanding defense, but still his value on the market is probably much higher than that of the team.

Baseball America has this farm system ranked about 22nd and I've seen it as low as 29th. This team needs a flood of talent that will be Major league ready at roughly the same time.

Veteran players on this team have little long-term value to this team. If the Nats can trade them for prospects it can rebuild it's farm system much more quickly.

3. Will this team draft Steven Strasburg?

I know this isn't a regular season question per se, but this is paramount none-the-less. Scott "the devil" Boras is going to ask for a huge Mark Prior like Major League deal. He's going to get it from someone, will it be the Nats?

This kid has HUGE potential. If you haven't heard he's been clock in triple digits (101) and has great breaking stuff. He's getting a lot of Mark Prior comparisons (the good kind) and he's really exciting to watch. Click Here to view highlights of his 23-strikeout game.

This is the type of player that can energize a fan base immediately.

4. Will Jim Bowden still be the GM of this team?

There is a growing sentiment that Jim Bowden is public enemy No. 1.

This guy really thinks so. With obvious bad contracts, inability to sign first round picks, poor drafting, shady activities with international scouts, and overall bad management; this stewardship has been a disaster.

Down the parkway in Baltimore, Andy McPhail has done a great job of building his farm system, acquiring assets and overall improving the outlook on the Orioles. Fans in DC and looking for the same, soon they may be out-right demanding it.

5. Will the young players improve?

Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Jesus Flores and others began to show some real promise last year. Elijah Dukes especially had an OPS+ of 154 (roughly 54% better than league average) in the second half of last season.

Milledge had a .299/.355/.448 split in the second half last year which is very respectable for a center fielder.

In this first half of last year Flores had a .759 OPS and played great defense. In the league today that makes for a rock-solid catcher.

While the farm system might be bleak, there's lots of young talent standing in Nationals Park right now. If this talent continues to improve it should help give hope to fans until the reinforcements arrive.

Wizards Midseason Report: The Bad, The Badder, and The Ugly

Rob Kildoo — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 00:38:01 -0500

Ahhh, the midseason report. It gives us a chance for all of us to reflect upon the poor decisions made in the offseason and their impact on a team's (lack of) success. Let's examine the formula for the Wizards current state of being...

Bad offseason + injuries to key players + nonsensical coaching change + total unwillingness/inability to play defense = let's see, carry the four, add the... oh wait, last place in the Eastern Conference.

Does this mean that Wizards fans should be in despair? It depends on when you're hoping.

The odds of a miraculous turnaround are, well, let's check with John Hollinger of ESPN, whose playoff odds have the Wizards playoff chances at...drumroll, please... ZERO.

The Wizards are 25th in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency, and have little hope for improvement on defense. What no one can predict is the impact that a possibly healthy Gilbert Arenas can have on the offensive side of the ball.

5 Good Things From the First Half

1. Antwan Jamison and Caron Butler are really good. The Wizards committed to winning with the Big 3 in the offseason, and two of them are playing really well.

2. Andre Blatche is improving. Since the coaching change, Blatche is seeing more burn and he's rewarding the team with improvements in almost every category. I look for him to continue to get 25-30 minutes as the season wears on, and develop into a solid rotation player.

3. Javale McGee was a good draft pick. Quietly, McGee has been very effective in short stints. As his conditioning improves, he should see more time and may validate the Wizards taking a chance on the raw big man.

4. Mike James has improved since the trade. Buried on the bench in New Orleans, he was looking like one of the worst contracts in the NBA. Now that he's starting to contribute in Washington, his $6 million salary is seeming a little more palatable.

5. Nick Young has a place in the NBA. Until Young learns how to...you know...pass, he's going to have trouble getting a lot of minutes. As instant offense off the bench, a la Bobby Jackson, Young is a valuable role player for most teams.

5 Bad Things From the First Half

1. Eddie Jordan. That's all I need to say. This was a good coach widely respected throughout the league, and anyone who looks at this team can see that the talent just isn't there. Boy, this change really made a difference in the win column.

2. JaVale McGee, Bill Walker, Nick Young, Dominic McGuire, Oleksiy Pecherov, Vladimir Veremeenko, Andray Blatche, Devin Harris, Peter John Ramos, Jarvis Hayes, Steve Blake. Here's a list of Wizards draft picks since 2003. Other than Devin Harris, who was traded to Dallas for Jamison, there's not a single NBA stud in the group. Talent wins games in the NBA, and the Wizards have wasted draft after draft. This doesn't bode well for the very early (potential No. 1) pick next year.

3. The end of the bench is awful. When Etan Thomas, Domick McGuire, and Dee Brown are all getting solid minutes, you have a major problem.

4. As stated above, the Wizards are 28th in defensive efficiency. When this team was high-flying and high-scoring, this could be rationalized, but defense comes down to effort and coaching, and, frankly, the effort isn't there at all. Teams like Charlotte and the Clippers find themselves in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency, and no one can say they're more talented.

5. It's really clear that there's no plan. After firing Eddie Jordan, it was clear this team is lost. Gilbert Arenas and Brandan Haywood do not make this team suddenly a championship contender. The teams needs to stop thinking about winning 45-ish games and losing in the first round of the playoffs, and start thinking about building this team to win long-term.

Hope is Not Lost

Every team wants to win a title (we hope). Every fan wants his/her team to win a title. So what do the Wizards have in their favor? All we've heard about is the summer of 2010. Well, the Wizards haven't been mentioned all that much, but they're actually set up nicely.

Aside from Jamison, Arenas, and Butler, only Songaila, DeShawn Stevenson, and Andray Blatche are locked up through summer. Their salaries total $53 Million.That leaves roughly $20,000,000 of salary that summer for a big-time free agent.

Hopefully the Wizards' front office is focused on 2010 as a time to contend again. They need to sell everything not named Caron Butler (Arenas is untradeable) for as many draft picks as they can get.

Loading up on cheap and expiring contracts and trying to make this team an option for Kobe, Lebron, Wade, or Amare is the best chance they have of getting back to contention. The great news is they're all set up to do just that.

All management needs to do is make smart choices and be patient. On second thought, maybe there isn't any good news.

Mark Cuban Does Best Martha Stewart Impersonation

Rob Kildoo — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 06:12:13 -0500

According to The Smoking Gun, Mark Cuban has been indicted on one count of insider trading.

Apparently, Cuban had stake in a company called Momma.com. Upon hearing about an upcoming sale of the company that would devalue his stock he sold 600,000 shares, saving himself a loss of $750,000. The SEC does not like these kinds of moves.

Just in terms of this case, Cuban is facing a fine of up to three times the amount of profit (or lack of losses) for his crime. Odds of jail time are almost zero for the circumstances surrounding this trade.

The timing of this indictment is actually good and bad for Cuban.

Currently, there's a bill in the Senate that stiffens the penalty surrounding this type of trade, makes it a felony, and adds for up to 10 years of potential jail time. In the wake of Enron and Tyco, defrauding shareholders can cost people their homes, retirement funds, college funds, etc., and is seen as a high crime.

So had this indictment come next year after the bill passed (hypothetically) it could have led to Cuban being a convicted felon.

Besides the obvious problems with that, the most interesting side effect of such a conviction would be his standing in the NBA. Would David Stern allow a convicted felon to own an NBA team?

This news is a nail in the coffin to Cuban's attempt to buy the Cubs.

In this financial market there can't be too many people looking to spend $1 billion on an MLB franchise. Media reports have always thought that a Cuban-backed ownership group would not be welcome by Bud Selig. This has to pretty much extinguish any hope of that happening.

Sports fans remember what a joke Dallas was before Cuban bought the team. Cubs fans were ready to welcome with open arms an owner with a face and one who cared about winning more than the bottom dollar. (Of course, Cuban has managed to win and make money, but still...)

This indictment not only kills any chance for Cuban to buy the Cubs, but potentially puts him in jeopardy with the NBA. Fans love Cuban for speaking his mind about officials, NBA executives, and players, but now he'll surely be keeping a lower profile.

Cuban can certainly be annoying at times, but for those of us that follow teams whose owners seem to undercut team success to benefit their pockets (Suns and Clippers anyone?) we would love for Cuban to come buy our team.

Sorry Cubs fans, maybe year 101 will be your lucky year.

Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen Sent to the Washington Nationals

Rob Kildoo — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 07:30:34 -0500

Color me shocked (what color is that?).

After tearing into the Nats' management for chasing big-money free agents and worrying about their management situation (how does a team have the worst record in the league and not sign their first-round pick?), the Nats go out and make a great trade. Here we are in November, and the Nats' management is giving fans reason for hope.

The deal

Josh Willingham and Scott Olson for Emilio Bonifacio and two minor leaguers; second baseman Jake Smolinski and right-hander P.J. Dean. For the Marlins, this is nothing more than a salary dump. Jeff Loria (owner) is literally stealing from teams in the league.

The Marlins' payroll is lower than their revenue sharing income—that's criminal. I don't blame Mike Hill (GM) or Larry Beinfest (President of Baseball Operations) because Loria is essentially tying their hands with this payroll situation.

For Marlins fans, this has been a consistent cycle—build up young talent, start to compete, sell it off, rinse, lather, repeat. Give a ton of credit to Stan Meek, who continues to scout talent in the draft and trades that works its way up to the majors.

For the Marlins

Emilio Bonifacio

Bonifacio is incredibly fast, but terrible at getting on base. Think Juan Pierre. It’s hard to steal second if you’re not on first. He has a place in the majors as a backup and pinch runner, but he has a very limited upside with a sub-.300 OBP.

Throw-in P.J. Dean is a RHP in low-A ball. His K/9 innings is solid at 7.01, but at 20, he’s nothing more than a project. P.J. was a seventh-round pick in the 2007 draft. Jake Smolinski, also included, is a 2B with a .750 OPS. He’s only 19, so it’s way too early to judge, but at this point he’s so far away from the Big Show he doesn’t have a ton of value. He was selected in the second round in 2007.

For the Nats

The Nats acquired two players entering their arbitration-eligible years. These players are still going to be cheap valuable players, especially Scott Olsen, who, if he returns to form, could be a potential front-end LHP.

Josh Willingham

The acquisition of Josh Willingham shows the Nats are looking to address their true weaknesses. The Nats were dead last in OPS behind the Padres, Giants, and Pirates. They ranked 11th in the N.L. in OBP. Josh Willingham instantly improves that situation.

Willingham will get on base, give the Nats some decent pop (20 homers), and plays a solid corner outfield spot. An outfield of Milledge, Dukes, and Willingham gives the Nats a solid young outfield going forward.

Scott Olsen

Olsen is a huge upside play for the Nats. If the velocity he showed at the end of last season holds up, the Nats just acquired a left-handed pitcher who sits in the mid-90s with solid breaking balls. In other words, the Nats just acquired their No. 1 starter next year.

Both players have their risks. Overall, the Nationals just capitalized on the Marlins' financial situation (notably their penny-pinching owner) and acquired two great building blocks. It Olsen returns to form, they can choose to build their pitching staff around him, or trade him after buying-low.

Maybe there’s hope after all.

Dear Washington Nationals: Stop! Stop Before It's Too Late!

Rob Kildoo — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 14:47:41 -0500

After my last diatribe detailing the necessity for the Nats to follow a patient, long-term plan, here they are talking about doing something dumb.

Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated is reporting "that the Nats' attempts to acquire a slew of superstars apparently is serious. A Nationals person said they have interest in Rockies' star outfielder Matt Holliday plus free agents Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, and A.J. Burnett."

Where do I begin?

Matt Holliday

While Holliday has proven to be one of the best young sluggers in baseball while in Colorado, I have serious doubts as to how he'll succeed outside Coors. His OPS is almost 150 points lower on the road.

Combine that with the pitcher-friendly park the Nats call home and we're looking at a considerable drop from his near-MVP numbers of late. Add in the Scott Boras factor and you're looking at a $150 million-ish contract, which would seem absurd compared to the team's payroll.

Marx Teixeira

Teixeira is flat out one of the best players in baseball. A switch-hitting first baseman of Gold Glove-quality who gets on base and hits for power and average. He's an upgrade over all but for a few first basemen, but at what cost?

Boras has dropped hints about him being a $200 million player (way too much for a corner infielder, maybe even Albert Pujos) and he's been tied to the Red Sox and Yankees. Let's go ahead and check "not available" for him.

Adam Dunn

Mr. Consistency. Adam Dunn has hit 40 homers each of the last three seasons—40 exactly. He gets on base at a very high rate, hits doubles, and is generally a game-changer. Yes, his average is terrible; yes, his left fielding is Manny-esque; but the guy is a great player and very underappreciated. He's been called "country strong," and he can hit the ball out of any ballpark.

Dunn finished ninth last year in OPS in the NL. If the Nats are going to make a splash with anyone, Adam Dunn is the guy I'd want. He's underappreciated and probably undervalued. GM Jim Bowden has familiarity with Dunn from his days in Cincinnati. Four years and $50 million might get the deal done and that may turn out to be a bargain.

A.J. Burnett

Mr. Contract Year. A.J. Burnett seems to set recent highs of ERA, innings, and strikeouts every time his contract comes up. Hmmmm. He's a guy who last year I might have tried to buy low on, but his value will be completely over-inflated with teams like the Yankees, Brewers, and Dodgers flush with cash and desperate for top-of-the-rotation starters.

All of these signings would be dumb; Dunn might be a decent value, but the rest will be completely overpaid and will eat up payroll—and, more importantly, maybe only tack on 5-10 wins. The Nats aren't one player away, they're an entire team and farm system away. You make a splash on the free-agent market after you're set to contend.

Look at the Rays. They had exactly zero big-money free agents on the roster. If this is the Nats' attempt at showing the fans they're "serious about winning," I think the Nats will see that their fans are smarter than they think. The Nats need to think about long-term competition, not flail at being a .500 team. This team seems to be writing a how-to-ruin-a-franchise-for-dummies clinic.

Washington Nationals: Take Some Advice From Tampa Bay

Rob Kildoo — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 07:05:58 -0400

The Nats have to start instilling hope in their fan base. The Rays have given hope to every small-market team in the league. This year’s Rays should be proof enough that payroll doesn’t buy championships; you have to out-think the field.

It starts with the Draft: The Rays spent years stock piling their farm system. You have to make subtle trades to acquire high-upside pieces down the road, sign players to no-risk contracts, and most importantly, stop tilting at windmills making token efforts to improve.

Early in the Rays existence they signed Lou Piniella, and guys like Greg Vaughn and Wade Boggs who have the appearance of winning. Appearances don’t put fans in the stands, wins do.

The fans don’t want to flail at contention for one year, they want to see hope down the line for perennial contention. Washington, DC is inherently a weird place to start a new franchise. A large part of the people in DC aren’t from DC so there’s no “hometown” allegiance, and many come here as fans of other teams.

The Nats have a tougher fan base to win over.

The true value of players happens early in their careers. Baseball players are attached to a franchise for around six years after their draft. It’s an incredibly complicated process involving terms like super-twos and arbitration, but it’s safe to say that teams get the most value (production versus cost) from the good players they draft. The draft is where a franchise finds hope.

The Rays have drafted phenomenally well over their five or six years. No team gets every pick right, but that’s why you have 25-30 picks per year–you get a huge margin for error.

Teams need to take both high probability/lower-ceiling players as well as low probability/high-ceiling players to keep the right balance of talent, but talent is the key in the equation.

Over the past six years the Rays have drafted Evan Longoria, David Price, BJ Upton, Delmon Young, Andy Sonnanstine, Elijah Dukes, Josh Hamilton, Jacoby Elsbury, and so many more. Not all of those picks have ended up on the Rays (Hamilton is in Texas via Cincinnati, Young is in Minnesota, Elsbury is in Boston), but look at all that talent.

In addition, they have guys like Reid Brigniac in the pipeline. The point is, for years baseball executives have been drooling over the Rays’ talent and have been trying to steal players unsuccessfully.

Getting the talent isn’t the only part; evaluating it is also paramount. Teams tend to fall in love with guys they draft long after the love is proven false (see: Peña, Willy Mo).

The Rays traded Young to Minnesota for Matt Garza (potential ace) and Jason Bartlett (good place holder). They knew Young wasn’t as good as his stock and they sold high. The Mets being desperate (as always) to sneak into the playoffs, traded what is a young, potential ace in Scott Kazmir, for Victor Zambrano (long since out of baseball). Think the Mets could’ve used Kazmir this year?

The draft and trade aren’t the only places that teams build talent. Teams like the A’s and Padres have invested heavily in Latin America. International players aren’t subject to the draft, so scouting and early involvement are paramount.

The Padres just built a truly amazing new facility in the Dominican Republic to start training and scouting players, and to start building a relationship with the local area. Boston, Los Angeles, and Seattle have heavily invested in the Pacific Rim to mostly positive results.

Here’s the problem. The Rays resurgence was fueled by a front office that was creative, forward thinking, and incredibly well organized and disciplined. How many of us have faith that The Nats’ administration is capable of this? This is the sound...of silence.

Antwan Jamison, Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler: What about the Wizards' Big Three?

Rob Kildoo — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 01:59:55 -0400

The Washington Wizards face some real challenges this season. They’ve gone all-in with the Big Three: Antwan Jamison, Gilbert Arenas, and Caron Butler. Still, the obvious question remains: Can these three players carry a team to the finals, persevering through an improving Eastern Conference? Let's look at a few factors.

Health

Gilbert Arenas may or may not ever be the player that he once was. To date, the list of successful micro-fracture recoveries is limited to Amare Stoudemire, John Stockton, and Jason Kidd. The list of players whose careers were effectively ended by surgery includes players such as Penny Hardaway, Allan Houston, Antonio McDyess, and Chris Webber.

You'll notice on the success list, only Amare Stoudemire has the type of game that relies on the athleticism that Gilbert Arenas’ does. With Arenas out till at least December, we're already talking about a Big 2.5.

Caron Butler has missed 19 and 24 games the last two seasons, respectively. Can he stay healthy? With an improved Brandon Haywood still lost for the season, poor health has already taken two starters out for half the year.

Defense

Caron Butler plays excellent defense. Arenas and Jamison...not so much. This team remained competitive last year with Stevenson and Daniels holding down the point. Nick Young should see an uptick in minutes, and if he continues to improve his scoring numbers should improve, too.

His defense is suspect, especially when he's guarding larger guards, and his foul rate (5.4 per 48) is going to limit his minutes anyway. Young’s young, but he needs to improve his defense and foul rate.

If this team goes back to the score, score, score, lunge-for-a-steal style of defense, they'll not only not contend, but they may not make the playoffs.

Long Term

Arenas' contract is an albatross. Should things fall apart, the Wizards’ salary cap is tied up in a player coming off micro-fracture surgery, an aging power forward who can't defend, and a great young player signed to a reasonable deal. Which one is likely to have the most value?

There are questions about whether the Big Three can stay on the court and there are questions about whether this Big Three is on par with Boston's Big Three. On paper, this looks like the Golden State of the East; fun to watch, explosive, but ultimately lacking.

The only hope they have is a team defensive philosophy similar to the Celtics, who can cover up many individual deficiencies in a team's defensive concept. It's on Eddie Jordan to get a team full of poor defenders to play well as a team.

Hey, worst case scenario, Wizards fans have a fun team to watch...