Bleacher Report - Articles by Dan Fabrizio

NL Central Preview

Dan Fabrizio — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 12:23:53 -0400

Just like our NBA Teams of Interest article, this article is going to examine some teams around Major League Baseball, searching for value opportunities in the sports betting marketplace.

We will not be giving picks; however, we believe these insights can help the prudent bettor looking for that extra bit of information to help them make a more informed decision on upcoming games.

We welcome your feedback - contact us!

Also, you can comment and subscribe to our blog. For previous articles, please visit our archive. Click here to subscribe to our articles newsletter, delivered straight to your inbox every week!

NL Central

We're going to switch things up a little bit today and touch on every team in the NL Central, focusing on which teams are under- or over-valued heading into the season.

We picked the NL Central for two reasons; first, it's one of the more wide-open divisions in baseball, and second, we feel that certain teams are due for a drastic change in fortunes from their 2008 win totals.

We included our predictions for each team going over or under their Vegas win totals, but we also recommend keeping our analysis in mind for your early-season wagering.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Odds to win NL Central: 20/1; O/U Wins: 67.5)

While there are surprises in store later in this article, one thing that won't surprise anyone is that Pittsburgh remains one of the least talented teams in baseball. The Pirates are like the anti-Tampa Bay Rays in that they've picked in the top of the draft for years, yet have managed to accrue very little talent.

They have shown no signs of digging their way out of the cellar of the NL Central; on the contrary, they seem to dig themselves into a deeper hole year after year with poor drafting and uninspired free-agent acquisitions.

Sporting one of the worst starting rotations in the league to compliment a horrendous offense, the Pirates will be even worse in 2009 than in 2008, so bet appropriately.

O/U: UNDER

Houston Astros (20/1 ; 73.5)

Based on "Pythagorean Record" (determining won/lost record by runs scored and runs allowed), the Astros were one of the luckiest teams in baseball last year, finishing nearly 10 games better than expected.

This year, they will not be so lucky.

With an anemic offense anchored by two very good but aging sluggers (Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman) surrounded by a wealth of replacement-level (or worse) talent, the Astros will be scoring runs like a soccer team in 2009. With a pitching staff very similar to their offense (one stud followed by a bunch of average to below-average hurlers), the Astros will have a very difficult time winning any game not started by Roy Oswalt.

All that said, the sportsbooks seem to be using the same line of reasoning as us and have set the over/under very low, so we would probably avoid any "futures" bets on Houston altogether.

O/U: AVOID

St. Louis Cardinals (8/3 ; 82.5)

The Cardinals boast the game's best overall player in Albert Pujols, yet unfortunately surround him with one of the worst supporting casts in the majors.

For years now, Pujols has basically carried the Cardinals on his back, and they're going to be asking the same of him in 2009. While there are quite a few home run threats on the team, Pujols is the only one who also hits for average and solo shots only help so much.

On the pitching side, there is very little to like beyond Adam Wainwright, in the rotation or the bullpen. Finally, factor in the injury and regression risks on this team and it's tough to project the Cardinals to finish any better than .500.

O/U: UNDER, but barely

Milwaukee Brewers (9/2 ; 80.5)

We've got the Brewers as being slightly better than the Cardinals heading into 2009, the result of a much more well-rounded offense despite a slightly worse pitching staff. The rotation, now without C.C Sabathia, is basically all question marks, although the upside of Yovani Gallardo is higher than anyone's on St. Louis (yes, including Wainwright).

The offense, on the other hand, is a lock to be above-average, and may even be top 10 in the majors depending on how things pan out. Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, and Corey Hart are guaranteed to be above average at their respective positions, while Rickie Weeks and Mike Cameron both have the potential to be huge assets, or huge disappointments.

We like this lineup to score plenty of runs, but will their pitchers keep enough runs off the board to allow the Brewers to finish with a winning record? We think so, but not by much.

O/U: OVER, but barely

Cincinnati Reds (8/1 ; 78.5)

If there is one team that compares favorably to the Tampa Bay Rays before they made the leap in 2008, it's the Cincinnati Reds. Featuring a core of veterans like Brandon Phillips, Ramon Hernandez, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Fransisco Cordero, as well as future all-stars in Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto, the Reds have an excellent blend of proven veterans and talented youngsters.

The pitching staff has a lot of potential to really shine in the coming season, and one of the best ways to help a pitching staff blossom is by installing a solid defense behind them, a plan that worked to perfection by Tampa Bay in '08 when they moved Akinori Iwamura to second over B.J. Upton and installed Jason Bartlett at shortstop.

he Reds now boast one of the best defensive infields in baseball, with Edwin Encarnacion being the lone, glaring exception—a healthy Brandon Phillips and Alex Gonzalez give the Reds an outstanding defensive middle infield and Joey Votto is fast becoming one of the best defensive first basemen in the game.

With expected improvement from the sophomores and a return to health for Alex Gonzalez and Brandon Phillips, the Reds are primed to be one of the best stories of the 2009 season.

O/U: OVER

Chicago Cubs (4/7; 92.5)

They're the class of the division, and you don't need me to tell you that. Excellent hitting backed by solid pitching and a great bullpen means the Cubbies will be the team to beat in the NL Central once again in '09.

Chicago took on a talented but injury-prone star over the winter in Milton Bradley and traded for Rich Harden midway through 2008, both solid gambles for a team that can afford to be without their services if and when the injury bug strike again. With their services, however, Chicago boasts one of the best teams in baseball on both sides of the ball.

The Cubs lost very little from their 2008 squad, and Carlos Marmol may even be an upgrade in the one position where they did lose a starter, as Chicago declined to re-sign closer Kerry Wood. In a weak division in the weaker league, the sky is the limit for this star-crossed franchise, and we don't see a reason for them to win any less than the 97 games they won last year.

In addition, they are as much of a lock as any team to win their division, although those 4/7 odds mean you may have to invest quite a bit of your bankroll to make the wager worthwhile.

O/U: OVER

Tampa Bay Rays Preseason Outlook

Dan Fabrizio — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 12:24:53 -0400

MLB Teams of Interest

by ChrisArena, sportsinsights.com

Just like our NBA Teams of Interest article, this article is going to examine some teams around Major League Baseball, searching for value opportunities in the sports betting marketplace.

We will not be giving picks; however, we believe this information can help the prudent bettor looking for that extra bit of information to help them make a more informed decision on upcoming games.

We welcome your feedback—contact us!. Also, you can comment and subscribe to our blog. For previous articles, please visit our archive.

Tampa Bay Rays

Do not make the mistake of thinking the Tampa Bay Rays were a one-year wonder. This is a solid team that continues to get better, by both developing prospects and making enlightened offseason acquisitions.

The 2009 season brings few changes to Tampa Bay's roster, but the changes they have made have all been well thought out with an eye towards continued contention.

First, they signed Pat Burrell to play left field and DH and provide the power right-handed bat they so desperately needed.

The Rays' main weakness in 2008 was a lineup that was very weak against left-handed pitching (combined batting line of .246/.330/.396 average/on-base/slugging) as their two best righties, Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton, actually fared better against right-handed pitching in 2008.

Longoria especially stood out in this regard, hitting and slugging 40 points higher against his right-handed brethren.

Burrell brings a deadly right-handed bat to the mix, averaging 30 home runs a year over the past three years and crushing southpaws to the tune of .279/.406/.545 in 2008.

He also fits Tampa Bay's progressive-thinking system of valuing on-base percentage (OBP) over batting average, as his .367 OBP is much more impressive than his .250 average.

Their second addition, Matt Joyce, is a promising young hitter who will probably start the year at AAA but should join the Rays in midseason to spell veterans Gabe Gross and Gabe Kapler. Joyce has flashed Burrell-like potential in that he hits for power, not average, but he walks enough to keep his OBP respectable.

Second, the Rays will be utilizing the services of all-world prospect David Price for the entirety of the 2009 season. Pitching was not an issue for the Rays in '08 (third in the majors with a 3.82 team ERA), yet Price makes their staff even stronger for the coming year.

Featuring a starting rotation of James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, and Price, the Rays' rotation matches up favorably to any in baseball, including the $100 million+ rotations of the Yankees and Red Sox.

Factor in Garza's superb playoff performance and expected subsequent improvement, and you have an elite rotation that will terrorize AL East batters for years.

Finally, Tampa Bay's farm system boasts many other top prospects just waiting for their turn to add even more strength to the Rays' roster. Reid Brignac is a power-hitting shortstop who has improved his defense from mediocre to outstanding and may join the team this year if his bat can rebound from an off-year in '08.

Pitcher Wade Davis is an elite prospect who would be even more well-known if he wasn't competing with the best prospect in baseball (David Price) for a shot at the big league.

His fastball/curveball combination is outstanding, and if he can master the change-up he will probably join the Rays as a bullpen arm and inject some youth in the only area of the team that is showing a little age.

The Rays boast other prospects, such as Desmond Jennings, Tim Beckham, and Jacob McGee, who are all expected to be all-star level contributors but will not advance past the minors in 2009.

All signs point to the Rays continuing their winning ways for 2009 and beyond. They don't spend money like the Beasts of the (AL) East, but they don't have to because years of solid drafting have supplied them with home-grown talent better than almost every available free-agent on the market.

The one hole that they couldn't address in '09 through prospects (right-handed hitting) was filled by the acquisition of Burrell, an ideal fit both statistically and for his veteran, championship-level experience.

From a sports betting standpoint, I like the Rays as a nice value pick for several futures. 4:1 to win the AL East is the first one that jumps out at me, and I love Tampa Bay at that kind of value.

Boston and New York are tied as 6:5 favorites, and I firmly believe Tampa is a better team than both of them. With 18:1 odds to win the World Series, the Rays are a bit of a long shot, but I still like the value here with teams like Arizona at 16:1 and the Yankees as favorites with incredible 4:1 odds.

Finally, Tampa Bay is getting a line of +115 for the over in regular season wins, currently at 88.5. Seeing as they won 97 games last year and I don't feel their opposition improved significantly, I really like the Rays and the over.

Stay tuned next week when we take a look at the New York Yankees' outlook for 2009.

NBA Teams of Interest: Charlotte and Dallas

Dan Fabrizio — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 11:57:34 -0500

NBA Teams of Interest

by Chris Arena, www.sportsinsights.com

Each week, we're going to take a look at a few teams around the Association that we think deserve extra consideration.

We will not be giving picks; however, we believe this information can help the prudent bettor looking for that extra bit of information to help them make a more informed decision on upcoming games.

We welcome your feedback; contact us!. Also, you can comment and subscribe to our blog. For previous articles, please visit our archive.

Charlotte Bobcats

The Charlotte Bobcats are the third-best team in the NBA this season against the spread, rewarding bettors who have backed them with a 36-24-1 record. Their 26-35 actual record belies the fact that they have only allowed 1.8 more points per game than they score, and their "Pythagorean record" is a much tidier 30-31.

"Pythagorean record " is a term coined by Bill James, the famous baseball statistician. It is a calculation of a team's expected wins based on their points scored and points allowed, a commonsensical approach of determining how lucky or unlucky a team has been in regards to its won/lost record.

The Bobcats have been very unlucky in their games won thus far, and while this is an unpleasant reality for Charlotte, it presents bettors with a rather nice value opportunity.

Luck tends to even out over the course of a season, and so it makes sense to believe the Bobcats will win more games in the remainder of the season, bringing their actual record closer to their Pythagorean record.

I feel that the Bobcats have improved significantly as a result of their acquisition of Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, and Vlad Radmanovic. I also like that D.J. Augustin continues to improve and that Gerald Wallace has returned to health.

The Bobcats are a much better team than their record right now, not just because they've been unlucky, but also because they have legitimately improved and matured as a team.

These facts lead me to believe that Charlotte may win a good deal more games down the stretch than expected and will continue to be a nice team to back with the spread.

However, I want to emphasize that it may be an even better idea to take the Bobcats on the moneyline.

Their record is due to adjust favorably and their talent level will continue to rise, so look for Charlotte to win straight up more often as the season comes to a close.

On a final note, be aware that Charlotte is an incredibly streaky team, either covering or failing to cover in large bunches over the past few months. The last time they did not win or lose at least two consecutive games against the spread was Dec. 13 of last year.

Having covered over their last four games, the Bobcats may be due for a few gambling losses, but don't get discouraged as there should be more winning streaks in their future.

Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks, who are 6-6 against the spread in their past dozen games, have exhibited a trend worth investigating.

Over those dozen games, the Mavericks have alternated wins and losses against the spread in every single game, starting with a betting loss to the Bulls on February 7th.

Does this mean that Dallas expends too much energy in some games, only to play down in the following game? Possibly, but that's a little too simplistic for my liking.

Looking at the actual games reveals two very distinct trends with gambling implications.

First, most of the Mavs' betting losses during this peculiar stretch have been to very good teams, which may tell us that the Mavs are intimidated by better opponents, or simply not as good as the public may think they are.

Their six gambling loses were to Chicago, Boston, Houston, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City twice. The six games they did cover were against Sacramento twice, New Jersey, Milwaukee, Toronto, and San Antonio.

Clearly, the latter list is much weaker than the former, with a couple exceptions (namely Oklahoma City and San Antonio). This information tells us to be wary when Dallas faces better opponents, with the prudent move being to bet the spread on the Mavericks' opponent when they play better teams.

The second interesting observation is that all six of their wins during this stretch was on their home court, and this has been a trend for Dallas all season long.

Their actual record at home is 23-8, while they are just 14-16 away from American Airlines Center. Dallas is much more comfortable playing at home, and this should not be ignored when wagering on the Mavericks.

In summary, don't be afraid to lay the points on the Mavs when they're playing lesser opponents at home, but fade them on the road and especially against the better teams in the league.

NBA Teams of Interest: Celtics and Pistons

Dan Fabrizio — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 14:44:11 -0500

NBA Teams of Interest

by Chris Arena, www.sportsinsights.com

Each week, we're going to take a look at a few teams around The Association that we think deserve extra consideration. We will not be giving picks; however, we believe this information can help the prudent bettor looking for that extra bit of information to help them make a more informed decision on upcoming games.

We welcome your feedback—contact us! Also, you can comment and subscribe to our blog here. For previous articles, please visit our archive.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics are a difficult team to analyze right now, especially from a gambling standpoint. Usually when a major player, like Kevin Garnett, becomes injured, I like to look at his replacement and project how much of a downgrade he will be, and then apply that to the team's success as a whole.

Well, I don't know that there can be a bigger downgrade that Kevin Garnett to Brian Scalabrine/Glen "Big Baby" Davis, yet the Celtics seem almost entirely unaffected. Sure, they lost a close game to the Clippers after convincing wins at Phoenix and Denver, but that game was the last of a lengthy six-game road trip and so I don't consider the upset all that surprising.

To further add to the confusion, Pierce dislocated his thumb in Wednesday's game and may miss some time in order to heal, or at the very least, play through the injury with decreased effectiveness. The puzzle we need to solve is this: are the Celtics more or less affected by these injuries in reality than the sportsbooks and the public believe them to be, as lines are set and moved in the sports betting marketplace?

There's no better way to predict the future than examining the past, so let's take a look at how the Celtics were valued coming off of KG's injury. In their first game post-KG, the Celtics were 1.5 point underdogs at Phoenix and won the game outright by 20 points. In the second game post-KG, Boston were one-point road favorites and beat Denver by 38 points.

In their third game post-KG, the C's lost by two despite being 10 point road favorites at the LA Clippers. What would these lines have looked like without KG's injury? Well, earlier in the year they were 8 point home favorites vs. Phoenix, 10 point home favorites vs. Denver, and had not played the Clippers previously.

It is generally thought that the being home is worth about three points, and whether you buy it or not it's the best guess I've got and so I'm going to use it. Following that logic, the C's "adjusted" lines look like this:

Opponent	Adjusted Line (With Kevin Garnett)	Adjusted Line (Without Kevin Garnett)
Phoenix	-5 (-8)	-1.5 (+1.5)
Denver	-7 (-10)	-4 (-1)
LA Clippers	N/A	-13 (-10)

Looking at those numbers, it seems that KG's injury was worth about 3 points to the sportsbooks. However, it appears that the 3 point "bonus" was scrapped for the game against the Clippers, as I can't imagine that line would have been much higher than 15 or so earlier in the year with Boston at home (their biggest line this year: -17 vs. Sacramento).

It seems clear that Garnett's injury was overrated by the books, and it makes sense, seeing as Boston is a well-coached team with excellent veteran leadership and a vastly underrated "no-name" point guard in Rajon Rondo.

Then, just when the books "caught on" and refused to lower Boston's line against the Clippers, the Celtics go out and lose by two, and I actually believe this foretells Boston being a value bet once again. The loss to the Clippers was a classic let-down game at the conclusion of a long road trip, so I have no problem throwing that one out the window.

Brian Scalabrine will miss at least two games, a moderate loss but he is a player Boston is accustomed to playing without. Pierce's dislocated thumb is a little worrisome, but I expect him to play through it and adjust by driving more and shooting less. On the plus side (well, I guess this may be debatable), Stephon Marbury is probable to play for Boston on Friday and despite his many flaws, he is a very talented basketball player.

Taking everything into account, when the sportsbooks start to give Boston softer lines again, as I expect them to, I would be inclined to take Boston.

Detroit Pistons

The Detroit Pistons are spiraling downward as their player's ages and tempers are both running high. The Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson trade has produced a clear winner (hint: not Detroit) and the Piston's overcrowded backcourt has caused some bitterness from Richard Hamilton, a man known as a team-player and general non-malcontent.

Sophomore Rodney Stuckey seems to have lost his mojo in addition to losing his shot attempts playing alongside AI. Four of their five best players are over 30 years old. Rasheed Wallace, despite being one of those players over 30, still acts like a teenager on the court and is close to hitting the technical foul threshold of 16, after which a one-game suspension is assessed for each additional "T."

Add it all together and what do you get? A team on an eight game losing streak and just 5-17 against the spread since Jan. 10.

At this point, Detroit, much like Iverson, gets by more on reputation than actual on-court play. They are a team of shooters without passers (highest assist average on the team: Allen Iverson!) and followers without leaders. Rookie coach Michael Curry is obviously overwhelmed with the situation and can't decide what to do with the backcourt trio—he knows Stuckey is the most important player on the team, but can't figure out how to break the news to Iverson and Hamilton.

He also seems stuck trying to play the same style of basketball that Detroit won with while he was an assistant in 2008, but which no longer fits the teams ever-aging personnel - basketball players decline much more drastically on defense than offense as they reach their thirties.

It seems to me that their best bet at reviving any playoffs hopes is ditching the halfcourt game and trying a guard heavy run-and-gun offense that better fits their personnel. Antonio McDyess has been phenomenal for the Pistons relative to what should be expected of a 34 year old with bad knees, but he should not be starting for this team.

By moving Tayshaun Prince to power forward, the Pistons could start a lineup of Stuckey, Iverson, Hamilton, Prince and Wallace, which seems absolutely ideal for a run-and-gun approach. In addition to every single position being manned by above-average shooters, Iverson and Prince are also much better defenders in transition than in the halfcourt, and transitional defense is the name of the game in the run-and-gun style of play.

I haven't heard any rumbling that such a move is imminent or even likely, but I have to imagine that Coach Curry is aware of the strengths, and more importantly the weaknesses, of his current lineup and would be willing to adjust in order put an end to their recent horrific play.

That said, Detroit's Over/Under lines have hovered at about 180-190 all season and they would easily blow that number out of the water if they start running. Watch this team closely in the coming days and weeks, and if you see signs that Curry is willing to open up the offense, start hitting the over hard as the starting five mentioned above has the potential to easily score 110 points per game.

NBA Teams of Interest: Trade-Deadline Edition!

Dan Fabrizio — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 09:48:12 -0500

Each week, we're going to take a look at a few teams around The Association that we think deserve extra consideration.

We will not be giving picks; however, we believe this information can help the prudent bettor looking for that extra bit of information to help them make a more informed decision on upcoming games.

We welcome your feedback—contact us!.

Also, you can comment and subscribe to our blog here. For previous articles, please visit our archive.

Rather than two or three longer features as we've been doing, this week we're going to break down Thursday's trades and give a gambling-focused outlook on the major players from Thursday.

Sacramento Kings

Players Gained: Drew Gooden, Andres Nocioni, Rashad McCants, Calvin Booth, Ike Diogu, and Sam Cassell (not likely to play)

Players Lost: Brad Miller, John Salmons, Sheldon Williams, Bobby Brown

The Kings secured their spot as one of the worst teams in the NBA with their trade deadline moves. From a gambling outlook, I actually think the public may underestimate how much worse Sacramento has become as a result of this trade.

Salmons was the best player involved in the deals and Brad Miller, who is a great all-around player when healthy, was probably the second best. Gooden will contribute when healthy (and who knows when that will be), while McCants and Nocioni are scorers but bring little else to the table.

Sacramento is building for the future and will be giving a lot of minutes to their younger players, so don't be afraid to lay the points against the Kings, even when the spread hits double digits. This team really is that bad.

Chicago Bulls

Players Gained: Brad Miller, John Salmons, Tim Thomas, Anthony Roberson, Jerome James

Players Lost: Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Andres Nocioni, Thabo Sefolosha, Michael Ruffin

The Bulls are primed to make a serious run in the Eastern Conference. As mentioned above, Brad Miller and John Salmons are both high quality players who were stuck on a very low-quality team. Miller shines in an offense that can take advantage of his passing, and Chicago is that kind of an offense.

The Bulls won't miss any of the players they parted with, as they either already had or have now acquired superior replacements.

I think the Bulls will be valued accurately after this trade on a talent standpoint, but keep an eye on the over/under for Chicago as they now feature a seriously high-powered offense. They were already giving up a ton more point than most people realized, allowing 102 points per game, and boast a 30-23-1 record going over the total.

Scott Skiles' Bulls they ain't, and since they've improved their offense with these trades while also giving up a little on defense, you can expect their games to consistently go over the total for the next few weeks.

Orlando Magic

Players Gained: Rafer Alston

Players Lost: Brian Cook

Orlando mortgages its future a bit by trading a first-round pick for Rafer Alston, a mediocre point guard who turns 33 in July. On the bright side, he fills a huge void created by Jameer Nelson's injury, and his salary is bad but not horrible—$5 million a year and it expires in 2010.

In the real world, this is a move Orlando had to make in order to keep their championship hopes alive.

In the sports betting world, this makes Orlando a team to fade, and here's why: Rafer "Skip to my Lou" Alston has always been overrated and overexposed because of his background as a street ball legend, while in reality he is barely passable as a starting NBA point guard.

Granted, all he will be asked to do in Orlando is lob alley-oops somewhere in the general direction of Dwight Howard, but believe me when I tell you Orlando is a much inferior team with Alston at the helm. He's a terrible shooter and a below-average passer and decision maker, not qualities a team wants from the "quarterback" of their offense.

While the public will look at Orlando and see a team identical to the one with Jameer Nelson, I see a team that has lost a lot of consistency and will probably be laying more points in the betting marketplace than they should.

New York Knicks

Players Gained: Larry Hughes, Chris Wilcox

Players Lost: Tim Thomas, Anthony Roberson, Jerome James, Malik Rose

In what is becoming an annual tradition, the Knickerbockers made some desperate trades on Thursday in a fruitless attempt to make the playoffs. The big difference this year is that they didn't take on any massive contracts and made two very low-risk, high-reward type deals.

The irony of the Knicks' previously disastrous deadline deals is that it has put them so far over the salary cap that they can now actually pay other teams money in trades and still save money themselves on luxury tax savings! Maybe Isiah Thomas had a plan after all...

Let's get to what matters and figure out how the Knicks will be profitable. While many analysts are already smearing the Knicks for trading for yet another me-first ball hog (Hughes) and a forward with no jump shot in a tempo-oriented offense (Wilcox), I applaud New York for giving up next to nothing to take a chance on two talented players who were stuck in bad situations.

I believe Hughes will be an excellent fit in Coach Mike D'Antoni's offense, as he can both drive to the basket and hit threes, and he has the potential to cause a ton of turnovers on the defensive end.

I believe that public perception of the Knicks is so negative that even when they make positive changes, as I think they have done here, the public will react negatively. While I don't think New York has any chance to make the playoffs, I do think the trades they made improved their team more than the general public believes.

Wait a few days for Hughes and Wilcox to get some practice time in, then find some nice underdog lines (Feb. 25 vs Orlando looks promising) and look for the Knicks to cover.

Houston Rockets

Players Gained: Kyle Lowry, Brian Cook

Players Lost: Rafer Alston

Houston made a great trade on Thursday, the rare kind of trade that helps them both in the present and in the future. As I stated above, Alston is not an asset to any NBA roster as a starting guard, and Houston did well to dump his salary and clear playing time for the young and promising Aaron Brooks.

Brooks' numbers as a starter are very similar to Alston's, with the difference being that Brooks' skills should only improve while Alston's were already on the decline.

Brooks' 88-percent free throw shooting belies his 40-percent overall shooting percentage, and he should improve both his percentage and his points scored as he acclimates to the starting role and improves his shot selection.

I think the Rockets play had grown stagnant under Alston, and giving more playing time to talented, youthful guards like Brooks and Lowry may cause some immediate improvements in the overall effort given by Houston's entire roster.

Additionally, Tracy McGrady being shut down for the season is really a godsend for the Rockets; he is a shell of his former self and Shane Battier is a much better all-around player and, unlike McGrady, a proven winner.

One of my favorite trends to take advantage of in the NBA betting marketplace is to look for teams that lose overrated, "big name" players and replace them with players with similar or better skills but zero name recognition.

Houston fits the bill perfectly, and my advice remains the same—back the Rockets because the no-namers (Brooks and Battier) are actually better than the "stars" (McGrady and Alston) they've replaced, and the public won't realize this for some time.

NBA Teams of Interest: February 13, 2009

Dan Fabrizio — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 12:08:49 -0500

Each week, we're going to take a look at a few teams around The Association that we think deserve extra consideration.

We will not be giving picks; however, we believe this information can help the prudent bettor looking for that extra bit of information to help them make a more informed decision on upcoming games.

We welcome your feedback—contact us!. Also, you can comment and subscribe to our blog here. For previous articles, please visit our archive.

Minnesota

I would be remiss if I didn't analyze the Timberwolves after Al Jefferson's season-ending ACL injury. Until the injury, the young big man was making Kevin McHale look pretty good, and that is not an easy feat.

So what happens when you take a bad team and remove it's best player? I'd like to defer to one of my favorite sports cliches: "If we can lose with you, we can certainly lose without you."

First, let me say that I am aware that the Timberwolves had won 10 of 14 January games, but they have lost five of six February games, and only one of those losses was without Jefferson.

Additionally, their 10 wins in January were not exactly what I would consider "quality wins". In fact, they only beat two teams with a winning record: New Orleans (without David West or Tyson Chandler) and the Phoenix Suns (by two points). Their true colors have started shining through against a tougher February schedule, and it's safe to say that their January record was more mirage than trend.

That's my objective view. We know that the general public, however, is not usually objective. Lucky for us, much has been made on "Sportscenter" of Minnesota's unbelievable "turnaround" and the highly unfortunate timing of "Baby Al"'s injury.

This may lead the casual sports bettor to overestimate the drop in quality the Timberwolves will experience as a result of the loss of Jefferson. He was (and is) an outstanding player, but he was never doing all that much to help the T-Wolves win, and Minnesota is actually quite lucky to have depth at the forward position, greatly diminishing the impact of his injury.

Kevin Love has proven to be a capable rebounder, if nothing else, and will slide into the starting lineup in Jefferson's place. Ryan Gomes, another part of the Kevin Garnett deal, has shown to be a competent scorer and should make up for most of the scoring load that Jefferson was bearing.

Add to the mix that Randy Foye, a highly-touted (and mostly underperforming) young player, will now have every opportunity to assert himself more as a team leader, and I think the actual impact of Jefferson's injury is marginal.

Keep an eye on our live odds page, and if you see Minnesota coming out as an even bigger dog than it was before the Jefferson injury, it may not be a bad idea to take the points and the over.

Indiana

I wanted to touch on Indiana briefly this week after receiving a thought-provoking email from a reader named Jeff. Jeff wanted me to talk about the Pacers, but I responded that there wasn't much to say: they play historically bad defense, their best players are constant injury risks, and I wouldn't touch them with a rival's bank roll. Well, maybe some rivals...

Jeff made an interesting observation, though, one that I hadn't realized and I wanted to put it out there for the rest of my readers. The Pacers have a habit of playing to their opponent; in fact, it's almost scary how formulaic they are. Take a look at their February schedule thus far:

Tue 03	vs Minnesota	L 111-116
Thu 05	@ Philadelphia	L 94-99
Fri 06	vs Orlando	W 107-102
Sun 08	@ Washington	L 117-119
Tue 10	vs Cleveland	W 96-95
Wed 11	@ Milwaukee	L 110-122

If you knew before hand that Indiana would be 2-4 after six games, what would the odds have been that Orlando and Cleveland would be those wins? 50:1? 100:1?

Interesting stuff, but is this something you can use in the future? Sure, if you can stomach wagering on Indiana in the first place, that is. My recommendation is to take advantage of the nice underdog lines Indiana usually gets against the better teams in the league, and avoid them like the plague as favorites against teams they "should beat".

That said, with Indiana's constantly-dwindling playoff chances and the iffy status of Danny Granger's knee, I still can't truly recommend wagering on Indiana very often. In fact, the only time I would really recommend the Pacers is if they come in as a Smart Money or Steam Move play to our Premium Pro members, and even then my hand would be shaking as I placed the bet!

Check out the blog for some additional content, including a "self check-up" to see how our teams of interest have played after being spotlighted in our articles. On a final note, your feedback is greatly encouraged and appreciated. We are trying to get an idea of what our members enjoy reading, so please let us know how you think this article can be improved, and what other types of articles you would like to see in the future.

NBA Teams of Interest: 2-6-09

Dan Fabrizio — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 13:38:20 -0500

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New Jersey Nets

The New Jersey Nets seem to have a bipolar disorder.

Tied for the last spot in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, the Nets certainly have a lot to play for down the stretch. However, looking at the team's last dozen games, the Nets had lost eight of nine games before winning their last three. Of those eight loses, only two were by five points or less, while two of the others were by twenty points of more.

In a 32-point loss to the Celtics, Vince Carter and Devin Harris were benched for the entirety of the second half, a coaching move basically unheard of in today's NBA, and obviously something you never want to see if you're taking the points. However, the Nets have now won three in a row, Vince Carter has played through nagging injuries all season, they are in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race, and boast a 27-23 record against the spread, ninth in the NBA.

So what is the enterprising sports bettor to make of all of this?

Our advice is simple—proceed with caution.

The Nets have performed well against the spread to this point, but that's mostly because the public vastly underrated Devin Harris and Brook Lopez heading into the season. They are both now known commodities. However, Vince Carter is still somewhat overlooked by the public (due largely to his missing the All-Star Game for the first time in nearly a decade), as he continues to play at a very high level. He has played 75 games or more for three seasons in a row—the "injury prone" tag is outdated.

All said, we think the Nets are still a little better than the public perceives them to be. Additionally, the Nets are one of the few teams to perform better on the road (13-12) than at home (10-15), making for an interesting dynamic in the sports betting world.

Conventional wisdom is that the home team is given a few points in the spread, and it's hard to say how much New Jersey's home/away differential is affecting the lines. Recently, on the road to face the terrible Washington Wizards, the game opened as a Pick 'Em before moving to Nets minus-1.

The Nets won by almost 30 points.

Is that really the kind of spread a playoff contender, who plays better on the road, should be getting playing at Washington, the worst team in the league?

It seems like the books are hesitant to accept that the Nets really do play better on the road, so if you believe the trend will continue, value exists.

On the contrary, the biggest factor that makes New Jersey a scary team to bet on, and why we advise caution, is their coach, Lawrence Frank. Frank is a big "effort" guy, and quickly sours on players that he perceives as not giving their all or taking plays off—possibly a result of spending four years under Bob Knight at Indiana. He also tends to give up on games early, preferring to bench starters to make a point rather than attempt the comeback.

For this reason, we highly recommend taking the moneyline rather than the points with the Nets, as they tend to either win the game or lose big, sporting the third most losses in the Eastern Conference by 10 points or more (only Toronto and Washington, the two worst teams in the conference, have more).

Utah Jazz

The return of Carlos Boozer is a situation that has more layers to it than is immediately apparent. Boozer is an extremely talented player whose presence should immediately help the Jazz, but what about the collateral damage his return may have on the psyches (not to mention minutes) of the players around him?

The Jazz went 8-4 in the 12 games that both Boozer and Paul Millsap, his replacement, were healthy. Millsap, however, was a different player then, coming off the bench and fulfilling the duties of a role player. After averaging 17 points and 10 rebounds as a starter since Boozer's injury, you can bet that Millsap doesn't look at himself as role player any longer.

So the question is, what will have the biggest impact when Boozer returns to the court—the additional talent, or the additional ego?

The first thing to realize is that Boozer and Millsap are remarkably similar players. Both had outstanding collegiate careers: Boozer lead Duke to an NCAA Championship, while Millsap lead the NCAA in rebounding for a record-setting three consecutive years at Louisiana Tech.

Both are considered undersized forwards: Boozer is listed at 6'9", Millsap at 6'8". Both were drafted in the second round of the NBA draft due to those height concerns, and both have blossomed into outstanding NBA players.

Now, both of them desire to be the starting power forward for the Utah Jazz.

While Boozer will undoubtedly reclaim his starting spot, we think Jerry Sloan, the longest-tenured coach in the NBA, will handle the situation well. Millsap could possibly continue to start at the small forward spot, especially since Andrei Kirilenko is out of the lineup. However, if he does end up coming off the bench, we think there will be enough minutes to make Millsap happy and allow him to continue to contribute at a high level. In this case, we believe talent will trump ego.

Knees are the biggest concern for the Utah Jazz and those looking to wager money on them; specifically, those of Deron Williams and Andrei Kirilenko.

Williams played (and played outstandingly well) Thursday, and his injured knee is not expected to be an ongoing concern, while Kirilenko is simply hoping to return before the end of the season. Knee injuries are tough because they affect lateral movement, which is very important for a point guard like Williams and an active defender like Kirilenko.

Be sure to keep up with our injury coverage for updates on the two.

All that said, we like Utah to improve their play when Boozer returns. The Jazz are a team loaded with talent and coached by one of the best in the business. Don't shy away from backing the Jazz in the second half as they look like a team primed to go on a nice run.

SportsInsights.com Super Bowl MarketWatch

Dan Fabrizio — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 13:39:50 -0500

Sports MarketWatch
NFL Week 21 - Early Moves Super Bowl Edition
1/28/2009 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Playoffs

Recapping Regular Season

Christmas started early in NFL Week 15 and 16, but the party ended for the sportsbooks in NFL Week 17. All sportsbooks reported flat profits in Week 17 with most sportsbooks losing anywhere between 0-2 percent of their handle.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64 percent of the action on one side, the public came out on top, going 5-2 -- making the Public 57-75 = 43.2 percent for the season.

SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis stumbled in the last week going 0-1, making it 26-22-2 = 54.2 percent for the season.

Not bad for a free weekly column; imagine the money you'd have won by using our Premium Pro membership! If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a Premium Pro Membership. Your bankroll will thank you!

2005 Games to Watch: 33-25 = 56.9 percent
2006 Games to Watch: 31-18 = 63.3 percent
2007 Games to Watch: 25-19 = 56.8 percent
2008 Games to Watch: 26-22 = 54.2 percent

Special Thanks

I’d like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds. It’s been an education in itself.

I’d also like to thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch. Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line value – while helping them to another profitable NFL Season.

Visit SportsInsights.comto view live betting statistics coming from the line boards of multiple sportsbooks.

College Basketball – Produces More Plays + Higher Win Percentage.

This weekly column is designed to highlight the revolutionary sports betting information found on SportsInsights.com. As much fun as football is to bet and watch, college basketball has been our most CONSISTENT and PROFITABLE sport.

Basketball produces mores plays and a higher win percentage. Take your winnings from this year’s NFL Sports Marketwatch and purchase a Premium Pro membership at SportsInsights.com today. Your bankroll will thank you!

NCAA Basketball	Records	Units Won (multiply the Units Won by your average bet size to see how much you'd win)
Steam Plays (Spread)	56-37 (60%)	+16.3 (*$50 better is up 16.3 x $50 = +$815)
Steam Plays (O/U)	153-94 (61%)	+41.9 (*$50 better is up 41.9 x $50 = +$2075)
Smart Money Plays (Spread)	18-10 (64%)	+7.5 (*$50 better is up 7.5 x $50 = +$375)

NFL Playoffs - Games to Watch (1-2 = 33.3%)

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year.

Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Super Bowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Super Bowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity.

During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.

SportsInsights.com and Super Bowl XLIII

Contrarian Sports Investing

SportsInsights.com(“SIs”) believes in a contrarian approach to sports investing and seeks out value in the sports marketplace. One of the key parameters to SportsInsights’ quantitative approach to sports betting is our proprietary sports betting percentages, compiled from several online sportsbooks.

The betting percentages tell us the percentage of bets on each side of a bet. Our research has shown that it normally pays to “fade” the public or “bet against the Public.”

The Public typically likes taking the favorite in most sports events. However, this year’s Super Bowl shows the Public loving the Arizona Cardinals and their Cinderella march to the Super Bowl.

This is an interesting departure for the Public and shows how much “value” there might be on the Steelers. This contrarian factor of “fading” the Public points to the Steelers.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers

Current Betting Percentages on the Super Bowl
Pittsburg Steelers 42 percent
Arizona Cardinals 58 percent

Smart Money and Point Spread Line Movement

SportsInsights uses another indicator that we call “Smart Money Analysis.” This method is more selective but also more powerful because historically, it has had a better winning percentage than using “betting percentages” as a standalone indicator.

For the Super Bowl, the “generally-available” line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5. As we saw above, early Super Bowl betting has most of the bets (about 60 percent) coming in on the underdog Arizona Cardinals.

Even with the majority of bets landing on Arizona, the line has inched up to Pittsburgh -seven. This is a relatively large move in the NFL – especially near a “key number” like seven.

This means that “big money” – which is usually “smart money” – is taking the Steelers. In other words, even though most bettors are on Arizona, “big bets” on Pittsburgh are more than balancing the Public’s action on Arizona. This indicator says to go along with the “smart money” and take Pittsburgh.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

Intangibles and Other Contrarian Angles

In addition to our “quant” or “technical” analysis of the sports marketplace (based on “betting percentages” and “line movement”), SportsInsights tries to analyze games using some approaches that resemble “fundamental analysis” in the financial markets.

For example, are there some extraneous factors that make a bet seem over-valued or under-valued? We try to “buy low and sell high” by using a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?” factor. That is, the Public tends to exaggerate the importance of recent events.

Arizona’s offense has been pounding the opposition. After being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, Kurt Warner and crew have rung up more than 30 points in each of their playoff match-ups.

Warner and his receivers look like they are playing pick-up football against a bunch of five-year-olds! The Public loves offense and this is another reason we feel that Arizona is currently over-valued. We’ll “sell” the Cardinals at a recent “high.”

During the early part of the regular season, the media focused on teams like Tennessee and both NY teams as “Super Bowl favorites.” Later in the season, fans saw teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, and the Colts streak into the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers played “steady football” all season long and “quietly” (if you can call their defense quiet!) ran up a 12-4 record, yielding a league-low 223 points.

Some of the intangibles point to “selling” the Cardinals at a “high” and “buying” a great Steelers team that avoided being over-hyped.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

Quick Analysis of Recent Super Bowl Scores

SportsInsights’ analysts took a quick peek at recent Super Bowl scores.
• Three out of the last five Super Bowls were settled by a FG or less.
• Four out of the last seven Super Bowls were settled by a FG or less.
• Six out the last 11 Superbowls were settled by a TD or less.

We normally hate giving seven points or more (or even taking a favorite!). However, we let the numbers do the talking. And, yet again, the recent history of Super Bowls (and an emphasis on shorter-term events) might be giving us some value. Over the much larger sample size of 42 Super Bowl games:

• 29 out of 42 games have been settled by more than a TD.

Football fans seem to be forgetting how we used to see lopsided (and sadly, sometimes boring) Super Bowls. This is giving us some value as the general Public is taking the points in this Super Bowl.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

Overview

SportsInsights looks for value in a variety of ways. For more information about SportsInsights.com’s philosophy on sports investing, please visit our articles on Sports Investing and Value. For live odds and SIs’ exclusive “betting percentages” on major U.S. sporting events, please visit www.SportsInsights.com.

Almost all of our regular angles and analysis of the “sports marketplace”point to contrarian value on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember to “shop for the best line” because you can still get Pittsburgh -6.5 if you check around. Does defense win Championships? We’ll see in a few days.

Games to Watch - Playoff Editions (1-2 = 33.3%)
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

It should be another exciting NFL Super Bowl. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.comfor the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next NFL Season with an all new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

SportsInsights.com's NBA Teams of Interest: L.A. Clippers and Milwaukee Bucks

Dan Fabrizio — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 13:34:17 -0500

Each week, we're going to take a look at a few teams around the NBA that we think deserve extra consideration. We will not be giving picks; however, we believe this can help the prudent bettor looking for that extra bit of information make a more informed decision on upcoming games.

We welcome your feedback—please direct any comments to chris@sportsinsights.com. Also, you can comment and subscribe to our blog here. For previous article, please visit our archive.

L.A. Clippers

The Clippers have been the laughingstock of the NBA for quite some time now, and this year has been no different. Sporting one of the worst records in the league (and a below .500 record against the spread [20-25]), the Clippers have shown no signs of turning things around anytime soon.

The one valid excuse the Clippers have this year is a slew of injuries. Marcus "Cotton" Camby was injured to start the year and recently got hurt again. Then, Chris Kaman was lost for an indefinite period of time in late November, just as the Clippers traded for Zach Randolph.

What seemed like fortunate timing turned into yet another disaster, as Randolph has been out since Dec. 28 with a knee injury and the oft-injured Baron Davis joined him on the shelf just a few days later. That left the Clippers without their three best veterans for the past month, and, as such, they sport a 2-12 January record.

The lone bright spot for the Clippers has been the development of rookie Eric Gordon and sophomore Al Thornton, both blossoming into prolific scorers in the absence of Kaman, Randolph and Davis.

With Davis and Camby recently returning to action and Randolph expected back shortly, it is tempting to look at the Clippers as a team that should improve greatly down the stretch. But we don't see the Clippers making significant improvements until Kaman returns from injury.

We recommend fading the Clippers, because the public will likely start favoring them upon the return of Davis and Randolph, two "big name" players, while paying little attention to the return of Kaman, a relatively unknown rebounding and shot-blocking machine.

In actuality, Kaman is the player most likely to help them win games and cover spreads, not Davis (35 percent from the field) and Randolph (3.3 turnovers per game). Kaman is expected to return sometime after the All-Star break, so keep up with our injury coverage for updates over the next few weeks.

Milwaukee Bucks

Michael Redd will not play another game for the Milwaukee Bucks this season.

Not exactly breaking news anymore, but we wanted to take a moment to look deeper into the Bucks' situation as they adjust to the loss of their leading scorer and the face of their franchise.

First, there is no denying Redd is a dynamic scorer and a "clutch" shooter, if you believe in such things. Averaging 20 points per game (PPG) to go along with two three-pointers per game and 45 percent shooting is no easy feat.

However, Redd is also notorious for being a scorer first, and, well, nothing second. He's not a great defender, not a great rebounder, and not a great passer. It's fair to say that Redd is a somewhat overrated player, and while his presence will be missed, the Bucks have one of the best backup guards in the league in Ramon Sessions.

In November, while Redd was out with a badly-sprained ankle, Sessions averaged 15 PPG and six assists per game. For the season, Redd was averaging 21 PPG and three APG. If we take the liberty of assuming that one assist is roughly equal to two points, then the "net points" generated by each player as a starter is identical: 27.

We can use this information to assume that although Sessions will not score like Redd, he will create opportunities for teammates at a roughly equal level, and the Bucks' overall play shouldn't suffer.

Now, it can be argued that Redd's presence as a three-point threat is not something that Sessions (career 22 percent from beyond the arc) can hope to replicate. This is absolutely true, and we wouldn't pretend to be able to put into numbers every aspect of what a player brings to the court.

However, what we can conceptualize makes it seem rather clear that Redd's absence will have a much smaller impact than the public will think, especially since high-scoring players are habitually overrated by most people, and that presents value in the sports betting marketplace.

Quick Hit: The San Antonio Spurs lead the league by a large margin in games won by three points or less (9-2). Great coaching, or great luck?

Daily Market Wrap Up

Dan Fabrizio — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 09:10:05 -0500

Moving Today's Market.

On the NCAA Gridiron, we get an early week MAC face-off between a pair of teams in the middle of the pack. The games drawing a bit of action despite the plethora of choices in the NBA, NHL and College Basketball. The Northern Illinois Huskies are coming off back-to-back defeats at the hands of the MAC elite, Ball State and Central Michigan.

At Pinnacle, NIU opened as four-point favorites over the Kent State Golden Flashes. The public is strongly behind the Huskies, as they are receiving 70% of spread bets and 65 percent of parlay bets. Despite that backing the line has dropped to NIU -3.

The movement triggered multiple Smart Money plays on Kent State, including one by BetJamaica (40-30, +6.25 units).

On the professional front, there is some interesting movement on tonight's Cleveland-New Jersey match up. LeBron James and the Cavs opened as six-point favorites at Pinnacle. The public loves King James, and the Cavs are drawing 72 percent of spread bets and 76 percent of parlay bets. The line has roller coastered between Cleveland -6 and -5 at most sportsbooks monitored by Sports Insights.

The combinations of movement and betting percentages has triggered multiple Smart Money plays on the Nets, including one at BetOnline (20-9-1, +9 units).

Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Kellen Winslow	Browns	Shoulder	Questionable	Winslow is scheduled to undergo an MRI exam after injuring his shoulder Monday night.
Mehmet Okur	Jazz	Back	Day-to-Day	Okur's back is said to be feeling better, but he's still not a lock to play on Wednesday.
Deron Williams	Jazz	Ankle	Day-to-Day	Williams practiced on Tuesday and is being called a game-time decision for Wednesday.
Dwayne Wade	Heat	Ankle	Probable	Wade participated in the Heat's shoot-around and will play against the Wizards on Tuesday night.
Scott Gomez	Rangers	Ankle	Out	Gomez will miss another week with an ankle injury.

Today's Best Bets

Check out today’s Best Bets!

Tomorrow's Market Mover

Ball State once again gets a mid-week game, as they look to remain undefeated and in the BCS bowl picture. The Cardinals travel to play the Chippewas of Central Michigan in a game with huge MAC Championship Game implications. In the NBA two Eastern Conference powerhouses square off in Detroit, when LeBron and the Cavs take on Allen Iverson and the Pistons.

Daily Market Wrap Up: Thursday Night NFL Showdown

Dan Fabrizio — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 09:11:58 -0500

Moving Today's Market.

The game of the week in the NFL could be the one being played tonight between the Jets and Patriots. The winner will have sole possession of first place in the AFC East. The line opened with the Patriots -4 at Pinnacle and moved to -3 at most sportsbooks monitored by Sports Insights.

At the beginning of the day the Patriots were receiving slightly more spread bets, but as the day has progressed the Jets are now receiving 51 percent of the wagers. New England will reportedly be without running back Sammy Morris, and LaMont Jordan is listed as doubtful.

In college football, Virginia Tech at Miami is getting most of the media attention, but the MAC showdown between Buffalo and Akron has seen more interesting movement in the betting market. Akron opened at -2 with Pinnacle and increased to -3 after two Steam moves were triggered at Catalina (+2.10 units) and Skybook (+8.90 units).

Some sportsbooks, monitored by Sports Insights, moved the line all the way to -3.5 before a Steam Move on Buffalo at Skybook (+8.90 units) and Bet Jamaica (+11.10 units) brought it back down. These moves have not prevented the public from backing Akron. They have received 57% of the public wagers, and also triggered a Smart money alert at ThePig (+5.40 units)

Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Tomas Vokoun	Panthers	back	day-to-day	Vokoun left Wednesday's practice early
Brent Johnson	hip	hip	day-to-day	Johnson left Wednesday's game after tweaking his hip
Clinton Portis	Redskins	knee	unlikely to play	Portis missed practice Thursday and is unlikely to play Sunday vs Cowboys
Reggie Bush	Saints	knee	questionable	Bush did not practice Thursday but Payton is hopeful Bush will practice Friday
Frank Gore	49ers	concussion	probable	Gore revealed Thursday he suffered a concussion Monday

Today's Best Bets

Check out today’s Best Bets!

Tomorrow's Market Mover

A full schedule of college basketball games as Friday marks opening night for the majority of Division I teams. On the professional front, there are 12 NBA games including a match-up between the Pistons and Lakers. Also one college football game between Cincinnati and Louisville, and six games on the ice.

Daily Market Wrap Up: Ball State BCS Busters?

Dan Fabrizio — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 08:09:06 -0500

Moving Today's Market

On the college gridiron No. 14 Ball State hopes to keep alive their BCS aspirations and remain undefeated as they travel to play Miami (OH). The Cardinals are averaging over 38 points a game, while allowing just over 15 to opponents. They have the 11th-ranked offense in both total yards and scoring average.

The Redhawks are 2-7 on the season and rank among the bottom teams in the MAC standings. All these facts lead to Ball State opening as 15.5-point favorites at Pinnacle. The public is jumping on the hopeful BCS busters with 79% of spread bets behind the Cardinals.

That backing pushed the line to Ball State -19.5 before dropping back to it's current -18.5 at Pinnacle. During this movement a pair of Smart Money plays were triggered on the Redhawks. It's also looking like a possible Square Play.

In the NBA, there are some interesting games and odds. One such interesting line comes in the Denver-Charlotte matchup. The Nuggets come into the game at 3-3, with a 1-2 road record. The Bobcats come in at 2-4 in Larry Brown's first season with the team, with both wins coming at home.

The Nuggets opened as 2.5-point favorites at Pinnacle, with a -121 behind the spread. The line quickly jumped to Denver -4, but has since returned to -2.5 with even odds. This is despite the Nuggets receiving a whopping 84% of spread bets and 95% of parlay bets. This movement paired with the strong public backing of Denver triggered a pair of Smart Money plays on the Bobcats.

Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Kenyon Martin	Nuggets	Wrist	Questionable	Martin is "50-50" to play in Tuesday's game.
Deron Williams	Jazz	Ankle	Questionable	Williams is expected to make his season debut on Tuesday, though he described himself as a game-time decision.
David Lee	Knicks	Ankle	Probable	Lee and Mardy Collins are listed as probable for the Knicks on Tuesday.
Josh Howard	Mavericks	Wrist	Doubtful	Howard does not have any long-term damage in his sprained left wrist, but is doubtful to play in the Mavericks game on Tuesday.
Drew Gooden	Bulls	Ankle	Questionable	Gooden sat out Monday's practice and is "questionable at best" for Tuesday's game.

Today's Best Bets

Check out today’s Best Bets!

Tomorrow's Market Mover

On the hardwood, we get a great match up of guards when Kobe Bryant and the Lakers visit New Orleans to face Chris Paul and the Hornets. In college we have a pair of football games to go along with a single basketball game. On the ice, we get to see an Original Six face-off between Boston and Chicago.

Daily Market Wrap-Up: MNF Surprise?

Dan Fabrizio — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 09:30:26 -0500

Moving Today's Market

It's doesn't look like a very exciting Monday Night Football game on ESPN tonight, but that's when they can sneak up on you. The 49ers continue to struggle, and most of the attention on them recently has been on the behavior of interim Head Coach Mike Singletary.

The Cardinals are leading the NFC West behind the resurgent Kurt Warner and the NFL's best wide receiver trio. They are putting up the points and seem to have found a running game last week with rookie Tim Hightower. Due to this the Cardinals are receiving 75 percent of the public's spread bets. Despite that backing, the line at Pinnacle has moved from an opening of Arizona -10 to -9.5. There looks to be some Smart Money behind San Francisco.

Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Clinton Portis	Redskins	Knee	Questionable	Redskins coach Jim Zorn specifically called Portis' knee injury a bone bruise on his femur in addition to a sprain.
Rodney Stuckey	Pistons	Dizziness	Out	Stuckey did not travel with the rest of the Pistons to Sacramento on Monday.
Mehmet Okur	Jazz	Personal	Out	Okur has received permission from the Jazz to return to his native Turkey because of a family illness.

Today's Best Bets

Check out today’s Best Bets!

Tomorrow's Market Mover

Ball State looks to remain undefeated as the travel to play Miami (OH) in Tuesday night NCAA football action. In the NHL, we get a rematch of last year's Stanley Cup Finals when Sidney Crosby and the Penguins travel to the Motor City to play Marion Hossa and the Red Wings. The Lakers-Mavericks showdown highlights Tuesday's NBA action.

Daily Market Wrap Up

Dan Fabrizio — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 09:52:31 -0400

Moving Today's Market

It's a day off in the World Series, but that doesn't mean there is a day off in the betting market. There are six games being played on ice and one game on the gridiron.

The Rangers opened at -120 with Pinnacle, and that has decreased to -108 against the Blue Jackets. The movement came from a Smart Money play on Columbus that was triggered by BetUs (+0.25 units). The public is pounding the side of the Rangers, as they have received 76 percent of the money line wagers.

Another game grabbing attention is the Flyers against the Devils. This rivalry opened with the Devils favored -170 at Pinnacle and now at -165. The line has decreased after four Smart Money plays were triggered at various sportsbooks, including TradeSports (+7.52 units), SIA (+0.16 units) and Bet Jamaica (+3.02 units).

A Steam Move also triggered play on Philadelphia at Bet Jamaica (+0.1 units). Even with all this movement on the Flyers, the Devils still received 67 percent of the public's money line wagers.

The one game scheduled tonight on the gridiron is Boise State visiting San Jose State.

Boise State is looking to go 7-0 and get one step closer to an undefeated season. Last season they defeated San Jose State 42-7, and opened at -7 with Pinnacle. The line has moved around but is back at -7, despite 71 percent of the spread wagers are on Boise State. The line is staying around that number because San Jose State has received numerous Smart Money plays, including one at Carib Sports (+3.70 units) and ThePig (+0.10 units).

Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Jeremy Shockey	Saints	hernia	Probable	Shockey will be able to suit up for the game, but not sure how much action he will see.
Plaxico Burress	Giants	neck	Questionable	Burress was back at practice on Friday
Laveranues Coles	Jets	concussion	questionable	Coles is expected to play according to the Newark Star Ledger
Derrick Burgess	Raiders	triceps	doubtful	Burgess missed practice Friday and is not expected to play
Santonio Holmes	Steelers	suspended	out	Holmes has been suspended due to misdemeanor marijuana arrest

Today's Best Bets

Check out today’s Best Bets!

Tomorrow's Market Mover

An exciting day of college football, which includes match-ups between Penn State/Ohio State and Georgia/LSU. Also, Game 3 of the World Series between the Rays and Phillies, and nine games on the ice.

MLB Sports Market Watch

Dan Fabrizio — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 07:54:22 -0400

We will be winding the MLB Edition of Sports MarketWatch during the playoffs and will be ready to launch the NBA Edition of Sports MarketWatch near the end of the month.

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports MarketWatch—MLB Edition, where the team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!

The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming games.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

There are only two MLB playoff games today. With so few games, MarketWatch will focus on the games with some enhanced coverage. We'll look at SportsInsights' betting statistics as well as other baseball statistics. In the early playoff game (Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay), the public's bets are mixed.

The most popular money-line bet and less popular "spread" or "run-line bet"—both have more bets landing on the White Sox. Parlay bets are landing on Tampa Bay, however. As our readers know, we like taking the "plus odds" on an underdog. However, we don't think that the odds at TB +120 make up for the better starter and better offense for the home-team Red Sox. We'll lay off this game.

2008 MLB Games to Watch: 17-37, 31.5%, -15.28 units

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Tampa Bay Rays +174 over Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox look like they are "hitting their stride" at just the right time. The Red Sox have won two World Series Championships over the past four years—and many baseball fans think that Tampa Bay was lucky to avoid going 0-2 even with the first two games in Tampa Bay. The series now shifts to Fenway Park and the Public is getting down on the Bosox even at heavy odds (-175 to -180 range). Can you see where we're going here?

The Public is overwhelmingly on the Red Sox, with about 75% of moneyline bets taking the heavy favorites. And why not? The Red Sox are in friendly Fenway and have their young star pitcher Jon Lester on the mound. Jon Lester went 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA this season. He has a sparkling 0.77 ERA in the playoffs. Enough said?

This is one of those games that looks like sure money. And this is exactly why there is value going the other way. We're going to sell the Red Sox and Lester at a high—and buy Tampa Bay and their pitcher, Matt Garza at a low. Garza had a solid season with an 11-9 record and 3.70 ERA. However, he's struggled in the playoffs with a 7.50 ERA and has a 6.32 ERA over his last three starts.

We'll take Tampa Bay and Garza as a live dog with good value in the +170 range. The line opened at TB +161 and the constant pounding on Boston has added value all the way to TB +174.

Tampa Bay Rays +174

Philadelphia Phillies +170 over Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers crushed the Phillies last night—and the Public likes the Dodgers again tonight. The Dodgers have home field again in the "late game" and look to even the series with veteran Derek Lowe. Derek Lowe had a great season with a 14-11 record and 3.24 ERA in a "contract season."

That extra "oomph" the season before negotiating a new contract can be enough to make a good pitcher great. But do the Dodgers, at home, deserve to be such a heavy favorite against the hard-hitting Phillies? Almost 70% of all bets on the Dodgers says, "No," and that there is value on the Phillies.

We'll again take a visiting live dog. SportsInsights' research has shown that home field during MLB playoffs can be overvalued. We'll sell LA and Lowe at a "high"—and buy the Phils after a bad loss.

Philadelphia Phillies +170

Games to Watch (17-37, -15.28 units)

Tampa Bay Rays +174
Philadelphia Phillies +170

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next week with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch—MLB Edition.

Daily Market Wrap Up

Dan Fabrizio — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 11:07:29 -0400

Moving Today's Market

The NLCS starts tonight as the Dodgers visit Philadelphia to start the best-of-seven series against the Phillies. Both teams took care of their opponents on Sunday, which gave each enough time to set their pitching rotation for this round.

The Dodgers give the ball to playoff-experienced pitcher Derek Lowe (14-11, 3.24 ERA), and the Phillies counter with their ace Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09 ERA).

Lowe showed that the spotlight is not an issue for him as he held the Cubs to two runs over six innings in Game One of the Division Series. He has also pitched well at Citizens Bank Park, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts. Lowe's success in the playoffs has convinced the public to back the Dodgers in Game One, as they have received 59 percent of the money line wagers.

The line at Pinnacle opened at Phillies -145 and has slightly moved to -143, despite a Steam Move being triggered at 5Dimes (+15.80 units) on the Dodgers. The majority of the bets are on the Dodgers. However, the money has been divided up equally even if the line has barely moved.

If you are not a fan of baseball but looking to gamble on something else, there are two college football games scheduled for tonight.

The Clemson Tigers visit Wake Forest in an ACC showdown; and in a Conference-USA game, UAB plays Houston. Both Clemson and Wake Forest are coming off bye weeks after losing their last game. Clemson lost to Maryland 20-17, and Wake Forest lost to Navy 24-17.

Wake Forest opened at Pinnacle favored -1.5, but has moved to +1. The public is pounding the side of Clemson after receiving 55 percent of the bets. There have also been two Steam moves played on Clemson, including one at Sportsbet (+3.00 units).

Houston comes into tonight's game after defeating East Carolina 41-24, on Sept. 27. They are 2-3 and come in favored by -18 at Pinnacle. The line opened at -19.5 so the money is being pounded on UAB. They have received two Steam move alerts from Cris (+7.00 units) and BetJamaica (+12.6 units).

UAB is 1-5 and the only win has come against a Division I-AA team.

Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Willis McGahee	Ravens	Ribs	Will Start	McGahee returned to full practice on Thursday
Calvin Johnson	Lions	Knee	Probable	Johnson was added to the injury report after being limited in practice
Roy Williams	Lions	Hip	Probable	Williams returned to practice, in full, on Thursday
Laveranues Coles	Jets	Thigh	Will Start	Coles was limited in practice but will play
Shayne Graham	Bengals	Groin	Questionable	Graham was held out of practice; more will be known tomorrow

Today's Best Bets

Check out today’s Best Bets!

Tomorrow's Market Mover

The ALCS begins between the Rays and Red Sox, and the NLCS plays a matinee in Game 2 of the series; and one college football game on the schedule.

In a non-conference battle, Louisville visits Memphis.

MLB Daily Market Wrap Up: Playoffs Begin

Dan Fabrizio — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 06:23:52 -0400

Moving Today's Market

After an exciting one-game playoff between the Twins and White Sox, the playoffs begin in earnest today. Cole Hamels and the Phillies are the heaviest favorites in today's games, as they host Yovani Gallardo and the Brewers.

Philadelphia opened as -196 favorites at Pinnacle, but are currently sitting at -229 while receiving 64 percent of money-line wagers. The movement for the Phillies occurred throughout the marketplace and created multiple Steam Moves on the Phillies.

In the day's second matchup, the Dodgers send Derek Lowe to the mound in hopes of stealing a game from Ryan Dempster and the Cubs at Wrigley Field. The money-line bets are pretty evenly split, but the line has moved the North Siders from -153 favorites at Pinnacle to -145 favorites.

In late-night action for bettors on the East Coast, the Red Sox will send lefty Jon Lester to the mound against John Lackey and the Angels. The Angels are being backed by 60 percent of the public's money-line bets, and the line has moved accordingly.

Los Angeles opened as -114 favorites at Pinnacle, but are currently sitting at -130. There was a steam move triggered on the Angels during this line movement.

Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Chipper Jones	Braves	Shoulder		Chipper Jones underwent an MRI exam Tuesday on his injured throwing shoulder.
Freddy Garcia	Tigers	Neck		According to agent Peter Greenberg, the injury that knocked Freddy Garcia out of Monday's game was "just tightness in his neck."
Hong-Chih Kuo	Dodgers	Hand	Doubtful	According to the Los Angeles Times, Hong-Chih Kuo "underwent a heart examination in an effort to determine why his fingers became numb and turned bright red while warming up Saturday."

Today's Best Bets

Check out today’s Best Bets!

Tomorrow's Market Mover

There's another trio of divisional playoff games on tap. The Brewers send CC Sabathia to the mound on three days' rest against the Phillies and Brett Myers. Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs will look to shut down Chad Billingsley and the Dodgers on the North Side of Chicago. The Rays send James Shields to the mound in their first ever playoff game as they host Javier Vazquez and the Chicago White Sox.

MLB Daily Market Trends: A Trio of Sharp Moves

Dan Fabrizio — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 04:59:08 -0400

Moving Today's Market

Looking at the baseball action today, it's obvious that bettors are focused on the first full day of NFL action. You know we will still find some interesting market moves to talk about here at the Daily Market Trends, though.

The Cubs finally broke out of their slump in a big way yesterday with a 14-6 win in Cincinnati. Sean Marshall (3-4, 4.03 ERA) takes the mound today for the North-siders against the Reds and Aaron Harang (4-15, 5.24). The Cubs opened up as -134 favorites at Pinnacle, but have moved to -115 despite receiving 70 percent of public money line wagers. Hello Sharps!

A couple of similar moves in AL games today in the Detroit-Minnesota and Boston-Texas matchups. The Twins and Glen Perkins (12-3, 4.08) are receiving 78 percent of money line bets, but the line has moved slightly in their favor. Paul Byrd (10-11, 4.58) and the Red Sox are receiving 71 percent of wagers, and have seen their odds move from a Pinnacle opening of -138 to -121. Keep an eye on these matchups.

Hey Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Kaz Matsui	Astros	Back	Doubtful	Kaz Matsui might not be available until Monday because of complications with the irritated disk in his lower back.
Brian McCann	Braves	Rest	Doubtful	McCann is not expected to be in the starting lineup Sunday to receive rest.
Ty Wigginton	Astros	Groin	Out	Astros manager Cecil Cooper indicated that Ty Wigginton would likely miss at least 7-10 days with a groin strain suffered Saturday.
Jeff Francouer	Braves	Hip	Probable	Francoeur didn't start Saturday after suffering a bruised hip on Friday, but came off the bench to go 2-for-2 with a double. Expect him back in the lineup on Sunday.

Today's Best Bets

Check out today’s Best Bets!

Tomorrow's Market Mover

The top two teams in the AL East begin a three-game series in Boston, as the Rays and Red Sox square off. Tampa's Edwin Jackson takes on Boston's Jon Lester in the opening game. A Monday Night Football double-header is on the schedule as the Vikings travel to Green Bay and the Broncos take on the Raiders in Oakland.

Sports Marketwatch: NCAA Football Edition Week 2

Dan Fabrizio — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 07:35:02 -0400

Sports Marketwatch - College Football Edition
NCAA Football Week 2
9/5/2008 PM EST
by Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the inaugural edition of the NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let's take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 2

Recapping Week1

This is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch, and we couldn't have asked for a better start. Not only did all three of the teams we highlighted cover the spread, they won outright as well. It just goes to show you that preseason hype is just that, hype, as three preseason top-25 teams fell to underdogs.

If you enjoy the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a Free 7-Day membership. We are the leader in sports betting information and statistics.

Overall = 3-0 = 100.0%

NCAA WEEK 2

Week 1 was much anticipated, and it didn't disappoint. We saw some big upsets, some big injuries, and a lot of good games. Some conferences looked very strong (SEC), and some looked... well let's just say not very good (ACC). Week 2 has some high-profile teams making their season debuts (Notre Dame and Miami), and features some interesting matchups (West Virginia at East Carolina). We're glad to have the college teams back battling on the way to the BCS Championship Game in Miami.

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

We anticipate there will still be quite a few lopsided bet games this week due to more cupcakes on the schedules of some top teams. Visit SportsInsights.comto view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here are a trio of line value games we are keying on.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 2 – Games to Watch

BYU vs Washington (9/6 -3:30P)

BYU has come into this season shooting to become last season's Hawaii, the team from a non-BCS conference to receive a BCS bowl bid. The Cougars have a history of high-powered offenses, and it looks no different this season. The public LOVES offense, and they tend to follow that when they bet. High-scoring offenses also tend to turn the ball over, as the Cougars did last week by coughing up five fumbles. BYU had a good defense last season, but lost eight starters from that unit. There's still a question how the new starters will perform after allowing some big plays last week against Northern Iowa.

Washington is coming off a road loss to No. 18 Oregon, and the Huskies' Tyrone Willingham is on the hot seat in his fourth season. Willingham does have a special talent in QB Jake Locker, who passed for 2,062 yards and ran for another 986 in 2007. The Huskies defense has experience and a new coordinator in Ed Donatell, who spent 13 seasons as a coordinator in the NFL.

The Cougars are receiving 60% of wagers at Sports Insights' contributing sportsbooks, but the line has moved in the opposite direction you would expect. BYU opened at Pinnacle as 10-point favorites, but are currently at -8.5. A 1.5 point move against that percentage shows me that the Sharps are backing Washington. I'm going to follow the Smart Money, especially since there are still some places offering Washington +9.5 (Sports Interaction).

Washington +9.5 (Sports Interaction)

Texas A&M vs New Mexico (9/6 - 5:00P)

Texas A&M opened the Mike Sherman era with a home loss to Arkansas State, not a good way to endear yourself to the Aggies' 12th Man. Sherman is switching to a pro-style offense at A&M, but it doesn't look like he has the right fit of players for that system. Senior QB Stephen McGee is more of a dual-threat player, as he was the Big 12's top rushing quarterback last season with 899 yards. Sherman also moved bruising RB Jorvorskie Lane to fullback, and made Mike Goodson the featured back. The Aggies didn't have a strong defense last season, and lost their top-2 defensive players heading into 2008.

New Mexico won its first bowl game since 1961 last season with a 23-0 defeat of Nevada in the New Mexico Bowl. The Lobos return key talent on offense including two-time first-team all-conference running back Rodney Ferguson. He is joined in the backfield by fellow RB Paul Baker (over 200 yards total offense in New Mexico Bowl). New Mexico also returns a strong secondary from last season, which could give fits to A&M's McGee.

The Aggies are receiving 76% of the betting public's support playing on the road, but they have moved from -3 favorites at Pinnacle to -2.5. Yet again, I'm following the Sharps and taking the home dog. Much like last week's Michigan game, beware of a coach implementing a new system without the right players in place to run it.

New Mexico +2.5

Mississippi vs Wake Forest (9/6 - 7P)

Wake Forest went on the road and crushed Big 12 cellar dweller Baylor 41-13 in week 1. Junior Riley Skinner begins his third season as the Demon Deacons starting QB. Skinner was the most accurate passer in the NCAA last season with a 72-percent completion rate, but Wake lost four starters along its offensive line. The Deacs also return the bulk of a talented defense.

In Houston Nutt's debut Mississippi started out the year with a big win against Memphis. It seems Nutt has found a decent option in Junior WR Dexter McCluster to play the Darren McFadden position of his "Wildcat" offense that he brought over from Arkansas. Texas transfer QB Jevan Snead looked good in his first action for Ole Miss, and the Rebels' unpredictable offense can confuse even the most experienced defenses. With DT Peria Jerry and DE Greg Hardy, the Rebels also feature the SEC's most talented defensive line duo, and a potential stud LB in Allen Walker.

The Deacs are receiving two-thirds of public wagers after receiving extra media attention for being the only ACC team to actually look good in week 1. Even with that public support, the line has moved a half-point in their favor. Could that be a sign of smart money I see? Absolutely. When two teams this talented square off, anything can happen, and we're following the Sharps in thinking this is a close one. I'll take Ole Miss and the points.

Mississippi +7.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 1.

Games to Watch (3-0)
Washington +9.5 (Sports Interaction)
New Mexico +2.5
Mississippi +7.5

One game just missing the cut this week was Northwestern at Duke. It's looking to be a Square Play, and if Duke ends up getting +7, I'm jumping in.

It should be another exciting week for NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check out our new feature Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won't find anywhere else. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com

MLB Daily Market Trend: Few Options for Tonight

Dan Fabrizio — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:25:07 -0400

Moving Today's Market

A heavy slate of afternoon games has cut down on the options for tonight's action and there aren't big moves, but that doesn't mean there aren't interesting things happening in the betting marketplace.

The first game of note sees Wrigley Field stud Ryan Dempster (15-5, 2.95 ERA) and the Cubs hosting the Astros and Randy Wolf (8-11, 4.73). Dempster is sporting a 12-2 record with a 2.84 ERA at the friendly confines this season.

Chicago is receiving 67% of money line wagers, but they have moved from a Pinnacle opening of -222 to -216. It's not a big move, but it is interesting. A second game to highlight features the AL's best team.

The Angles are in Detroit to take on the Tigers, and the team for Anaheim is receiving 65% of money line bets. The game opened at Pinnacle with both teams receiving -104 odds, but even with the public significantly backing John Garland (12-8, 4.54) and the Angels. They have moved to +108 odds. Yet again, interesting.

Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Yunel Escobar	Braves	Shoulder	Day-to-day	Yunel Escobar left Wednesday's game in the fourth inning with an apparent left shoulder injury.
Rich Harden	Cubs	None?	Probable 9/10	Although he says he's not injured, Rich Harden isn't slated to pitch again until next Wednesday.
Kevin Youkilis	Red Sox	Back	Day-to-day	Kevin Youkilis is absent from the Red Sox's lineup Wednesday because of lower back spasms.
Evan Longoria	Rays	Wrist	15-day DL	Manager Joe Maddon said Tuesday that "it's possible" Evan Longoria could return as soon as this weekend.

Today's Best Bets

Check out today’s Best Bets!

Tomorrow's Market Mover

A very slow day for baseball match-ups, with Scott Kazmir taking the mound against the Yankees highlighting the action. Does that even matter?

Tonight's first regular season NFL game is probably at the top of everyone's mind. The Redskins are on the road taking on the defending Super Bowl champion Giants to kick off the 2008 NFL season.

Sports Marketwatch: MLB Edition

Dan Fabrizio — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 07:20:38 -0400

Sports MarketWatch: MLB Edition
8/29/2008 4:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published weekly on Friday, normally by 5PM Eastern Time.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

MLB MarketWatch bounced back last week, going 2-1 and adding +2.35 units (+1.65 + 1.7 – 1.0). The pennant races are heating up and we’ll look for some live dogs amongst the “sometimes-huge-underdogs” that the sportsbooks handicap. It has been a difficult period for baseball dogs, as testament to the MarketWatch’s meager 35 percent winning percentage. However, the nice positive odds have kept us relatively close to even.

2008 MLB Games to Watch: 15-28, 34.9%, -9.03 units

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

San Diego Padres +165 over Colorado Rockies

Aaron Cook is a solid starting pitcher who has emerged as one of the top starters in the National League, second in the league with 15 wins. Cook’s 15-8 record makes him a favorite of the “betting public” – and the Rockies are collecting a huge 80% of the bets in this game.

The sports marketplace makes the Padres look like a good value play. Although Aaron Cook is a solid, reliable starter, his ERA has been rising closer to his lifetime ERA in the mid-4.00 region. The Padres are at home where they are more competitive. The Rockies are a weak 27-42 on the road. Take the Padres and sell Aaron Cook at a “high.”

San Diego Padres +165

Pittsburgh Pirates +160 over Milwaukee Brewers

Our offshore contacts tell us that early sharp money on Pittsburgh has dropped the line from its opener of Milwaukee -180 down to the generally available -165. We agree with the “sharps” that there is value on the home-team Pirates.

The Pirates are a .500 team at home – and the Brew-Crew is a .500 team on the road. You can still grab +160 odds, which makes this seemingly 50/50 deal look like a good value play. The public sees a Milwaukee team that has a lock on the wild-card playing a last place Pirate team that has been a perennial doormat.

Milwaukee is grabbing more than 80 percent of the bets, but the line has moved towards the Pirates. We’ll grab the +160 and join the “smart money.”

Pittsburgh Pirates +160

Oakland A’s +158 over Minnesota Twins

The Oakland A’s are another home team that isn’t getting any respect. The public is placing a big majority of all bets on the Twins. The Twins are fighting for a playoff spot. They are just a game-and-a-half behind the White Sox for first place in the AL Central. In addition, they are 2.5 games behind the Red Sox for the wildcard.

We believe, however, that the public over-values these motivational factors. The A’s have maintained their record around .500 for most of the season and are above .500 at home. We’ll “bet against the public” and take the A’s to play tough in front of a home crowd.

Oakland A’s +158

Games to Watch (15-28, -9.03 units)

San Diego Padres +165
Pittsburgh Pirates +160
Oakland A’s +158

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at SportsInsights.com

MLB Daily Market Wrap Up

Dan Fabrizio — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 10:36:12 -0400

Moving Today's Market

The Diamondbacks/Rockies game has seen some significant movement this afternoon. Randy Johnson (9-8, 4.24 ERA) and the D-backs have been pounded with two Steam Moves triggered at Olympic (+2.77 units) and Sportbet (+2.20 units), according to Sports Insights.

These Steam Moves affected Pinnacle's line because it opened at -129 in favor of Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez (8-10, 3.86 ERA), and has recently decreased to -123. The majority of the time the public bets the favorite, but for this match up 64 percent of the bets are for the underdog.

Another game receiving heavy action is the Cubs/Braves. Rich Harden (6-2, 2.27 ERA) is on the mound for the Cubs against Atlanta's rookie Charlie Morton (3-5, 5.70 ERA). Pinnacle opened at -154 and moved to -165 before a decent amount of smart money sensed value with Atlanta +157, which brought the line back to Chicago's -157 range. Over 80 percent of the bets on the money line favor the Cubs.

Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Scott Linebrink	White Sox	Shoulder	15-day DL
Marcus Thames	Tigers	Shoulder	Doubtful Tuesday	MRI showed inflammation and is expected to return by end of week
Evan Longoria	Rays	Wrist	15-day DL
Aaron Hill	Blue Jays	Concussion	15-day DL

Today's Best Bets

Check out today’s Best Bets!

Tomorrow's Market Movers

C.C. Sabathia tries to stay perfect in a Brewers uniform as he faces the Padres and Rangers/Red Sox continue their series for a chance at the Wild Card.

MLB Daily Market Update

Dan Fabrizio — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 05:36:24 -0400

Moving Today's Market

A few aces are taking the mound for their teams, and a couple are causing big market moves.

The Brewers CC Sabathia (10-8, 3.33 ERA) squares off against Braves rookie Charlie Morton (2-4, 7.26) in Atlanta. Milwaukee opened at Pinnacle as -159 favorites, but are currently sitting at -181 and drawing 83% of the moneyline wagers (and 96% of spread wagers).

In a matchup featuring two of baseball's weakest offenses, Padres ace Jake Peavy (8-6, 2.67) faces the Giants 126-Million Dollar Man Barry Zito (5-13, 5.80). San Diego opened at Cris as -205 favorites but have moved to -240 behind 70% of the moneyline bets.

It's not surprising that the Yankees series with the Angels is drawing in a lot of bettors. The Angels and Jared Weaver (9-8, 4.11) look to improve on their ML-best record (69-40) against New York's 13-game winner Mike Mussina (13-7, 3.56).

The line has gone through some see-saw movement, but has currently returned to match its opening at Pinnacle (Yankees -132).

Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Josh Hamilton	TEX (OF)	Head	Day-to-day	Left Friday's game with a head injury and did not return.
Torii Hunter	LAA (OF)	Personal	Out	Will miss the next two games due to personal reasons.
Xavier Nady	NYY (OF)	Quadricep	Questionable	He has an inflamed right Quad.
Mike Lowell	BOS (3B)	Hip	Questionable	He is dealing with a strained right hip.

Key Market Moves

The Pirates received a Smart Money alert in today's first game as they take on the Cubs. Pittsburgh starter Paul Maholm has pitched well over the last month (2.43 ERA), but hasn't fared well against the Cubs in his career (6.15 ERA).

Chicago starter Ted Lilly has a 5.34 ERA at Wrigley Field this season, and hasn't fared well against the Pirates in two starts this season with an 8.38 ERA and .395 batting average against.

Today's Best Bets

Check out today’s Best Bets!

Tomorrow's Market Movers

This weekend's series all wrap up in MLB.

MLB Daily Market Wrap-Up

Dan Fabrizio — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 11:36:39 -0400

Moving Today's Market

The battle in Milwaukee continues tonight, as the Cubs try to win back-to-back games against the Brewers. Carlos Zambrano starts for the Cubs, and he will face the Brewers' ace Ben Sheets. Zambrano is 3-1 with a no decision in five career starts when he pitches against Sheets.

Pinnacle opened at -125 in favor of the Brewers and has barely moved all day. The line decreased to -121, but the Brewers still have the slight edge, according to Sports Insights' betting percentages. The Brewers are receiving just over half of the betting money.

Another game to watch is the Rays against the Blue Jays. Toronto pitcher Roy Halladay is trying to turn it around against a team he has struggled against, going 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA this season. The Rays send Matt Garza to the mound, and he has allowed only one earned run in 14-plus innings pitched against the Blue Jays this season.

There was a Smart Money triggered by Skybook and SIA, both books with positive units won, in favor of the Rays.

The team chasing the Rays and only one game back, the Boston Red Sox, will host the Angels in the second of a three-game series. The Angels took the first game Monday night and look to take the series as they send John Lackey to the mound. Angels have scored a combined 31 runs in Lackey's last three starts, including an 11-3 win against Boston on July 12.

Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Adam LaRoche	Pirates	Back	15-day DL
Rick Ankiel	Cardinals	Abdominal	day-to-day
Michael Young	Rangers	Fractured Finger	day-to-day	Expected to miss 5-7 days
Ken Griffey Jr.	Reds	Rest	Doubtful Tuesday

Key Market Moves

We saw significant movement in the Braves/Phillies line. The Braves opened at -160 and is now at -123. Tim Hudson was scheduled start for the Braves tonight, but instead they turn to Jorge Campillo after placing Hudson on the disabled list Monday. Also the Nationals opened at 127 and is now at 143 against the Phillies.

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Tomorrow's Market Movers

Everybody is in action Wednesday. Cardinals pitcher Chris Carpenter will make his season debut against the Phillies.

MLB Daily Market Wrap up

Dan Fabrizio — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 09:05:57 -0400

Moving Today's Market

The market has been moving throughout the day in the MLB gambling world. Some of the most lopsided games are the Yankees/Orioles, Tigers/Indians, and Red Sox/Angels games.

The Yankees are receiving over 80 percent of the 12,000-plus bets made. Mike Mussina (13-6, 3.26 ERA) will start for the Yankees and Orioles counter with Jeremy Guthrie (6-8, 3.58 ERA). Mussina is 10-7 with a 4.56 ERA against his former team.

The Tigers and Kenny Rogers (8-6, 4.48 ERA) are also receiving over 80 percent of the bets made as they face Paul Byrd (4-10, 5.28 ERA) and the Indians. Byrd snapped his six-start winless streak last Monday against the Angels. Rogers has pitched well as of late, as his ERA has gone from 6.66 on May 21 to 4.48.

The Red Sox have received over 75 percent of the 8,500-plus bets made against the team with the best record in baseball, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Diasuke Matsuzaka (11-1, 2.63 ERA) is trying to become the 11th pitcher with 12 wins this season. The Angels send Jered Weaver (8-8, 4.08 ERA) to the mound.

Weaver is still looking for his first career win against the Red Sox. He is 0-2 with a 5.46 ERA.

Also, Astros pitcher Roy Oswalt returns from the disabled list to face the Reds. This will be Oswalt's first start since July 11 when he sidelined with a left hip abductor strain. He returns to face a team he has dominated in his career. He is 19-1 with a 2.46 ERA.

Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Brian McCann	Braves	Mild Concussion	Day-to-Day	Doubtful for Monday's game vs Cardinals
Joe Crede	White Sox	Back	15-day DL
Nomar Garciaparra	Dodgers	Knee	Questionable Monday
Rick Ankiel	Cardinals	Abdominal	Doubtful Monday

Key Market Moves

The Dodgers opened as -149 against their arch-rival Giants and has since increased to-185. The Astros opened at -154 against the Reds but has since decreased to -134, despite Oswalt's success against the Reds. A Smart Money was triggered on the Reds by CRIS and Canbet.

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Tomorrow's Market Movers:

A full slate of baseball action including a matchup between Cubs Carlos Zambrano (11-4, 2.96 ERA) versus Brewers Ben Sheets (10-3, 2.87 ERA).

MLB Daily Wrap Up - July 24

Dan Fabrizio — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 08:15:10 -0400

Moving Today's Market

The Brewers look to extend their winning streak to eight games and sweep a four-game series in St. Louis for the first time in franchise history. Milwaukee is the only NL team without a loss in the second half of the season.

Ben Sheets (10-3, 2.88 ERA) gets the opportunity to end the road trip undefeated. Sheets is 6-1 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 road starts this season, but is 5-14 with a 4.28 ERA in his career against the Cardinals.

Todd Wellemeyer (8-4, 4.22 ERA) will start for Cardinals but he has struggled this month, going 1-3 with a 7.55 ERA. His only career start against the Brewers came on May 9 when he allowed two unearned runs and six hits over six innings.

The percentage of money bet on the money line is slightly in favor of the Brewers, but CRIS opened at -145 for the Brewers but has since decreased to -128. There was a Steam Move triggered at Pinnacle on the Cardinals at +118.

A team that is surprisingly still in the playoff hunt visits Wrigley Field as the Marlins and Cubs open a four-game series. The Marlins are only a game and a half behind NL East leader New York, and take on a team they have dominated the last two seasons.

They have won 10 straight games against the Cubs, and they send Scott Olsen to the mound. Olsen is 2-0 with a 4.78 ERA in his last five starts. Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla and shortstop Hanley Ramirez are slumping since the break, going a combined 3-for-43.

The Cubs return home where they are an NL-best 37-12, and start their ace Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano is 5-0 with a 2.25 ERA at home this season. Over 85 percent of money being put on the money line is for the Cubs and over 95 percent is with the spread. The majority of the lines covered by Sports Insights has the Cubs over -200.

Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Chipper Jones	Braves	Hamstring	Day-to-Day	He doesn't think he will need to go on DL
Manny Ramirez	Red Sox	Knee	Day-to-Day	Questionable for Friday's game vs Yankees
Roy Oswalt	Astros	Hip	Probable for Monday	Expected to make first start since July 12 on Monday vs Reds
Pedro Martinez	Mets	Death in Family	Miss Friday's Start vs STL	Will miss Friday's start vs Cardinals due to death of father

Key Market Moves

The Cubs opened at -182 against the Marlins but has since moved to -201. The Cardinals opened at +122 versus the Brewers but has since decreased to +112. There is slightly more money on the Brewers but the public is favoring the Cardinals.

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Tomorrow's Market Movers

A full slate of baseball going into this weekend, including matchups between the Yankees/Red Sox, White Sox/Tigers and Cardinals/Mets

MLB Daily Wrap UP: July 23

Dan Fabrizio — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 08:33:56 -0400

Moving Today's Market

There were nine afternoon baseball games scheduled today, but two intriguing matchups are being played under the lights. The Cardinals have already lost the first two games to the Brewers in the series, and they face C.C. Sabathia tonight and Ben Sheets Thursday.

Sabathia is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and opponents are batting .205 since the Brewers traded for him on Jul. 7. The Brewers have won six straight games so the Cardinals send Braden Looper to the mound to try and cool down Milwaukee.

In Looper's last start he was roughed up early, allowing six runs on eight hits in only three-plus innings of work. Most of the afternoon the line has stayed around the upper -140s in favor of Milwaukee.

According to books monitored by Sports Insights, Pinnacle has the best line at -138. The public opinion shows a slight favor towards the Brewers, as 55 percent of the money is with Milwaukee.

The other intriguing game involves the Cubs and Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks look to sweep the Cubs to stay in first place in the NL West. CRIS opened with Arizona favored at -126 but has since moved to favor the Cubs at -122.

This might have something to do with the return of Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano. He is expected to be back in the lineup after being hit by a pitch in the hand on Jun. 11. The Cubs are 16-18 without Soriano, and the team has combined to hit .251 this month.

Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Alfonso Soriano	Cubs	Hand	Expected to be activated from DL	Expected to be activated for tonight's game vs D-backs
Miguel Tejada	Astros	Rest	Doubtful for Wed	Not expected in lineup tonight vs Padres
Russell Martin	Dodgers	Rest	Doubtful for Wed	Not expected in lineup at Rockies
Jason Bartlett	Rays	Knee	activated from DL Thursday	Expected to be activated for Thursday's game at Royals

Key Market Moves

Mets opened at -117 against the Phillies but has since increased to -135. A Smart Money was triggered by WagerWeb, a positive unit, in favor of the Phillies. Another game that has shown movement is the Marlins and Braves.

The Marlines opened at +117 but has since dropped to -102, despite starter Ricky Nolasco's lack of success against the Braves this season. He is 0-2 and has allowed 13 runs in 10-plus innings pitched.

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Tomorrow's Market Movers

There are only seven games scheduled tomorrow but that includes series finales against the Brewers/Cardinals and Phillies/Mets.

MLB Daily Update

Dan Fabrizio — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:39:55 -0400

Moving Today's Market

Despite it being a Monday there is a full slate of baseball action. Rich Harden makes his second start for the Cubs as they open a three-game series in Arizona against the Diamondbacks.

In his team debut on July 12, Harden struck out 10 and threw 5 1/3 scoreless innings. The CRIS line opened at -133 for the Cubs and other books, monitored by Sports Insights, have stayed around that number despite the Diamondbacks countering with future Hall-of-Famer Randy Johdnson.

Another game getting some early attention is the Red Sox against the Mariners. The Red Sox have lost 10 of the last 12 road games after being swept by the Angels Sunday night.

Jon Lester (7-3, 3.38 ERA) will try to end the losing skid as he faces Jarrod Washburn (4-8, 4.83 ERA). Washburn's start was pushed back by two days because he was battling flu-like symptoms. The southpaw has allowed two runs or less in seven of his last nine last starts but has lacked run support.

The Mariners are averaging 3.6 runs/game during that span. The CRIS line opened with the Red Sox favored by -137 but has since moved to -153. Matchbook is coming in with the best odds at -138 for the books monitored by Sports Insights, and over 80 percent of the money is supporting Boston.
Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Justin Morneau	Twins	Hand	Questionable
Billy Wagner	Mets	Left Shoulder	Day-to-Day	Felt shoulder tightness after Sunday's game vs Reds
Jermaine Dye	White Sox	Knee	Doubtful
Pedro Martinez	Mets	Groin	Scratched from Start	Will miss Tuesday's start vs Phillies

Key Market Moves

There was movement in the Mariners and Diamondbacks game. The Mariners opened at +118 and is now at +135. The line has gradually moved throughout the day as money has gone on the Red Sox. Also the Diamondbacks opened at +114 and has since increased to +127.

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Tomorrow's Market Movers

Fifteen MLB games will be on the board tomorrow, including the Phillies at the Mets.

Daily Market Trends: Rivalry Kicks Off Independence Day Weekend

Dan Fabrizio — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 09:18:28 -0400

Moving Today's Market

The Red Sox @ Yankees series is the big battle heading into the weekend. Boston is coming off being swept by the AL East leading Rays, and they hope Jon Lester (6-3, 3.48 ERA) can return them to winning ways.

Andy Pettite (9-5, 3.98 ERA) starts for the Yankees, who are coming off an offensive explosion of 18 runs against Texas yesterday.

Oakland’s surprising AL ERA leader Justin Duchscherer (8-5, 1.91 ERA) looks to shut down the hot bats of the White Sox, who have scored fewer than five runs only once in their last six games. Bets are pretty evenly split, but the money is favoring Chicago and Javier Vazquez (7-6, 4.49 ERA).

San Francisco’s NL Cy Young hopeful Tim Lincecum (9-1, 2.38 ERA) faces the NL Central leading Cubs and Sean Gallagher (3-3, 4.36 ERA). The bets and money are keeping this game pretty static across the board.

There’s also a nice pitching match up in the NL East battle between Philadelphia and Atlanta. Phillies ace Cole Hamels (8-5, 3.38 ERA) squares off against surprising youngster Jair Jurrjens (8-3, 2.94 ERA). The Braves are getting almost 60% of the bets, but the money is with the Phillies, as the Braves have moved from a -105 opening to +105 at Cris.

Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Carlos Zambrano	CHC (SP)	Shoulder	Returning from DL	Felt fine after a bullpen session and is set to start on Friday.
Ryan Braun	MIL (3B)	Rest	Questionable	Braun, mired in a slump, is being given Thursday off to rest.
Michael Young	TEX (SS)	Groin	Questionable	Young is recovering from a mild left groin strain, and is questionable for Friday.
Rafael Furcal	LAD (SS)	Back	15-day-DL	Furcal is already on the DL, but underwent further back surgery. He is expected to miss at least another 8 weeks.

Key Market Moves

It’s been a slow day for Steam Moves and Smart Money bets with most of the American League and some of the National League teams traveling. A couple of teams were triggered twice for Smart Money bets. The Royal and Nationals each received two Smart Money alerts, and each received one from Trade Sports, which has a +12.52 units won.

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Tomorrow's Market Movers

There's a full slate of MLB action on Independence Day. The staggered schedule will allow you to grill some hot dogs and burgers, drink a cold one, and watch baseball all day long. Some old-school rivalries are on the docket, including Red Sox-Yankees, Cubs-Cardinals, and Dodgers-Giants.

A few clubs have their aces taking the mound tomorrow as well. Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, Carlos Zambrano, Tim Hudson, and Dan Haren are all scheduled to toe the rubber.

Daily Market Trends: Slow Day for Pitching Matchups

Dan Fabrizio — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 10:22:05 -0400

Moving Today's Market

It’s not an exciting day for pitching macthups, and the number of bets show it (only two games have breached 10,000 bets). Only three games contain a pair of starting pitchers with sub 4.00 ERAs, but two are battles between division leaders and the teams directly trailing them in the standings.

Oakland @ Anaheim is first of these, and is seeing most of the early action due to a late afternoon start time. The bets and the money seem to slightly favor the Angles’ Joe Saunders (11-4. 3.06 ERA) over the Athletics’ Dana Eveland (6-5, 3.34).

The other division battle sees Tampa Bayace Scott Kazmir (7-3, 2.28) trying to complete the surprising three-game sweep against Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-1, 3.21) and the Boston Red Sox. Matsuzaka looks to continue his strong rebound since a horrendous first start after coming off the DL (1IP, 6H, 7ER vs. STL on 6/21).

Indians ace CC Sabathia (6-8, 3.78) looks to add to his trade value (and next contract) against Jose Contreras (7-6, 3.99) and the AL Central leading White Sox.

Key Injury Updates

Player	Team	Injury	Status	Comments
Roy Oswalt	HOU (SP)	Hip	Doubtful for Saturday	He is dealing with a strained left hip abductor.

Key Market Moves

Today we had two games that received Smart Money status and a Steam Move from different sportsbooks that have positive units won. The first is the D-Backs over the Brewers. The Smart Money bet was triggered by Skybook (+14.04 units), while the Steam Move was triggered by BetUS (+3.89 units). The second is the Giants over the Cubs. The Smart Money bet was also triggered by Skybook, while the Steam Move was triggered by Pinnacle (+24.94 units).

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Tomorrow's Market Movers

Baseball fans have been excited all season for the battle between the Orioles and Royals, but I have a feeling the Red Sox @ Yankees four-game series might see a little action.