Who Wins the Early BCS Lottery?

Dan Morgan — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 17:34:56 -0500

The BCS ranking system exists for one reason, to choose who goes to the national championship game. Well, that’s what we thought up until now. For the first time the BCS rankings before the end of the season have real meaning. At this point, nobody knows who the winner tomorrow is going to be, but the argument is simplified a bit with a clear loser out of the three.

Texas Tech is all but forgotten in this discussion. The combination of their loss in the three way tie being a blowout and late in the season ends their championship dreams. Lucky for us, this only makes it a little easier.

Even though the tie is really between Oklahoma and Texas, since Texas Tech decided to poke their head in the discussion head to head is thrown out. How odd is it that we’re faced with a two way tie that isn’t a two way tie because of the BCS system.

Taking a look at what will happen is actually not that difficult, that is if this is treated as any other week in the BCS. Oklahoma wins the trip to Kansas City on the BCS game show. Before this weekend Oklahoma already was ahead of Texas in both human components of the BCS.

The computers were the only thing keeping them back, and it was still close. Texas walking all over a bad Texas A&M team isn’t going to sway either the voters or computer rankings enough to give them a boost that would keep them ahead of Oklahoma.

The win by Oklahoma this weekend will now bump their strength of schedule up higher than Texas for the computers. It will also be fresher in the minds of the voters than anything Texas has accomplished.

The only way the situation pans out differently is if the voters treat this like it matters. Everybody knows that the way the final BCS rankings go down is different than what happens during the season. Coaches pay attention more and tend to actually cast their ballots instead of letting the GA down the hall do it.

The coaches are accountable for their picks during the final week as opposed to the votes being anonymous throughout the season. Voters can intentionally attempt to sway the rankings based on who they believe should be in the title game. So the question is do the voters weigh what’s at stake when they cast their ballots?

If enough voters want to screw with the polls to try to bump Texas in, then we could have a very interesting situation on our hands.

On a separate note, how different is this from last year where the rankings week to week were a futile hope at guessing who would survive. There are more one loss BCS teams in the big 12 south than there were in the whole nation last season.

Unfortunately for the fans while the predicament itself lends credence to the playoff argument, the reality is that the BCS is thrilled right now. It’s a mess, and we’re all going to be watching.

Michigan Football 2009 Doesn't Look Too Good Either

Dan Morgan — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 08:56:36 -0500

First off, let me place my article in perspective. I am a lifelong, die-hard Ohio State Buckeye. While I enjoy the recent domination in the rivalry, I understand that Michigan being competitive is good for Ohio State, good for the rivalry, and good for the Big Ten.

Obviously Rich Rodriguez's first year was awful, terrible, an abomination, whatever you want to call it. The real question is, where does Michigan football go from here?

Traditionally Rodriguez dismantles a program, spends a year in the dumps, then does all right, and in his third year runs a competitive football program. I don't want to use history as a prediction though. I would like to look at the reality of the immediate future of Michigan football.

First I want to take an in-depth look at the players that Michigan will have to work with this season. Much has been made of how bare the cupboard was left for Rich Rodriguez for 2008, but 2009 may not be significantly better.

Let's start on the offensive side of the ball. The Rodriguez style of spread option football relies on the quarterback more than any other offensive system. The football is kept in the hands of the quarterback a very high percentage of the time, and without an athletic player who can run and throw, results will be lackluster.

This year the ball was in the hands of Steven Threet the most, with Nick Sheridan playing quite a bit as well. Statistically Threet was better in pretty much every category, but not by enough to say he will clearly pan out as the better of the two. Both have abysmal numbers both passing and rushing.

While the entire offense being bad doesn't help these two guys out, it is hard to say that one of them is going to carry them to a successful season.

As far as players Rodriguez is recruiting to be the guy in the gun for Michigan, there are two commits at this point at quarterback. Shavodrick Beaver and Tate Forcier are the eighth- and sixth-rated dual threat quarterbacks respectively.

Both of these players are definitely talented enough to be good possibilities for Michigan, but looking at how true freshmen do at quarterback is not comforting. Even the best players struggle in their first year in the program, and neither of these guys is the best at their position.

No matter who is playing quarterback for Michigan next season, he is going to need a lot of help from the offense around him.

Unfortunately, that help is probably not going to be there at some positions, starting with the offensive line. This is a group of players this season that wasn't exactly dominating defensive lines.

In the two-deep, all but one player were redshirted when they came into the program, indicating that none of them was talented enough to get early playing time. That one player is second-string freshman Ricky Barnum.

The other offensive linemen that were brought in last year who will be available next season all weren't good enough to even break from being redshirted. Elliot Mealer and Dann O'Neil were both four-star recruits that could contribute this season though.

In the current (2009) recruiting class there is only one total offensive lineman committed, Michael Schofield, a four-star recruit. Of the uncommitted prospects, the only guy four stars or better with any interest in Michigan (other than Marcus Hall, who is essentially a lock for Ohio State) is Taylor Lewan.

Even with picking him up, it is not going to be a great situation for the offensive line. The group is going to have a starting lineup that isn't exceptionally good with depth that is very weak. Even one or two injuries here are really going to hurt, and it's inevitable to have injury problems on the O-line.

The rest of the offense is a toss-up at this point. Minor did fairly well, and the running back position could be a bright spot next season. The receiving core was nothing special in 2008, and there are no studs coming in yet for 2009.

I admit that I don't know enough to really examine these positions the way I can look at the others. Still, there are enough athletes in the program that I expect this position to be decent to good, but not exceptional.

Now let's talk defense, the bright spot of Michigan football in 2008. There was actually a decent amount of talent on this side of the ball. The only reason it looked as bad as it did was because of the positions the offensive ineptitude constantly put the defense in.

The problem is that a huge amount of this talent is graduating. The Michigan defense loses three out of four starting defensive linemen, along with a starting linebacker, safety, and corner. This next recruiting class is stocked full of decent players at these positions, but no five-star talent. The defense for 2009 will be very young and won't be able to carry the team through games.

I also believe the defense will be regressing under Rich Rodriguez's coaching. Traditionally his teams do not have a very good defense, so don't expect him to coach up a great team on that side of the ball.

After looking at a close view of the team, let's look at the schedule for next season. Here is what I consider a generous prediction of the wins that Michigan could get next season.

Western Michigan: Michigan should be able to pull a W.

Notre Dame: They are regarded as on the way up (I personally disagree), but I'll go out on a limb and say this could be a W.

Indiana: One would think it'll be a W with how bad Indiana is.

Michigan St.: I don't think so—L for the second year in a row.

Iowa: If the end of this season is any indication of how good Iowa will be, no way. L.

Penn St.: Nope, I don't see Penn State being as good next year, but not that much worse either. L.

Illinois: Depends on if Illinois regresses from this bad year or rebounds, but let's assume that Michigan can win this one. W.

Purdue: With Joe Tiller leaving, who knows, but it's certainly possible. W.

Wisconsin: Terrible this season, but it still isn't a guarantee at this point. The victory could be there next season. W.

Ohio State: No way, no how, not in a million years. By the end of the season next year Ohio State will be very good. Even with the game in Ann Arbor, I don't see it being close for the second year in a row. I could be wrong here, because with it being the rivalry game anything can always happen, but Rich Rodriguez is not a great rivalry coach.

So from looking at the schedule as generously as I can, Michigan could realistically hit seven wins, but I'm not counting on it—not with their defense dropping down so much next season and the offense not getting the players needed to run the system well yet.

The only reason the offense will be any better next year will be because the system won't be getting implemented from scratch. Remember Rodriguez talking about how the first practice was even more awful than he had imagined it would be? Michigan won't be starting at that point next year, so there is a bright spot.

I'll be the first to admit that I'm not close to the Michigan program. I don't know any of the players or coaches. I haven't watched enough film to really analyze each individual player. I'm going off of general knowledge (rivals.com for recruiting rankings) of Michigan football and giving a way too early prediction of next season.

The picture could change on signing day, in spring practice, and in fall camp. I just wouldn't place money on Michigan getting good next year.

The program is going to need to give Rich Rodriguez an extra mulligan year after this terrible season as opposed to becoming impatient with him. If Michigan dumps Rodriguez too soon and tries to go another direction, the program will take a serious hit. There will be a lot of doubt if Michigan will rebound for a long time.

Let Rodriguez do his thing for at least three to four years, because until then, times are not going to be good.

Bleacher Report - Articles by Dan Morgan

Who Wins the Early BCS Lottery?

Michigan Football 2009 Doesn't Look Too Good Either