Bleacher Report - Articles by John Gilmer

Virginia Football: Analysis of the 2009 Recruiting Class

John Gilmer — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 10:39:27 -0400

It’s time for my annual analysis of Virginia’s recently signed football class for next year. As always, I write as a fan and not as an objective journalist. And I will give the same disclaimer as I did last year: I am not a recruiting guru and don’t subscribe to any pay Web sites. So if you are a guru, you will not find anything new here. I am here to answer some pressing questions for the typical fan.

You might wonder why I am writing this article now. It’s because there were many articles written on the subject back in February. This is an introduction to those players that have recently arrived at school for those fans that might have forgotten what they read six months ago.

Let the questions and answers begin.

Which position unit am I most excited about?

I am most excited about the offensive lineman. Our O-Line corps has been very thin recently from several years of under-recruiting. We are very fortunate that we didn’t have many injuries this past season on the OL, or it could have been ugly—or should I say, uglier than it was.

Six offensive lineman signed, though Morgan Moses and Cody Wallace will end up prepping for a year at Fork Union Military Academy. Moses was expected to go, but Wallace's situation is a bit of a mystery.

This is a deep and talented group.

What’s the weakest position unit?

I don’t think we have anything to go on besides the ratings of the recruiting services. As I argued last year, though the services certainly are wrong in their evaluations of certain players, as an aggregate they probably have some validity.

As rated by Rivals, which is probably the most widely-recognized service, the defensive backs and linebackers were the weakest units.

Here they are with the number of stars in parentheses: Defensive backs Corey Lillard (three), Laroy Reynolds (three), Perry Jones (two), LoVante' Battle (two), and Javanti Sparrow (two), and linebackers Tucker Windle (three), Jeremiah Mathis (two), and Connor McCartin (two).

I know that Reynolds might end up at receiver or grow into a linebacker, and that Sparrow could end up at receiver, but this is a guess where they might start at.

A couple weeks ago, Groh said Sparrow is already one of the fastest players on the team, so let’s hope he exceeds his two-star rating.

Which single player am I most excited about?

I am most excited about Tim Smith, as his senior year stats and his highlight videos are very impressive.

One video clip I remember especially fondly is from a kickoff return for a touchdown, and his acceleration through a hole was breathtaking.

He is the first four-star receiver to sign with Groh—though I remember thinking that Ogletree should have been a four-star when he signed—and Groh even said on signing day that he’s never signed a receiver with the accolades that Smith has.

In the 2004 recruiting class, Virginia was the runner-up for three four-star receivers, and it still hurts to this day. Of the three receivers, Dwayne Jarrett and Eddie Royal had tremendous college careers and are playing in the NFL, while Doug Dutch did nothing at Michigan.

It’s about time we got one.

Which player is least likely to red-shirt?

My guess would be Tim Smith, given his accolades coming in, the fact that we lost our two top receivers from last year, and the fact that we are switching to a spread offense that heavily uses four-receiver sets.

Another possibility for early playing time is at defensive end, where we are pretty thin, and Will Hill seems to be the most likely candidate since he started a semester early.

Groh has recently said that there are quite a few true freshmen that seem capable of earning playing time this year. Javanti Sparrow has impressed the coaches and is in the running to handle kickoff and punt returns.

How did we do in the speed department?

Groh’s teams have unfortunately not been known for speed. But in his press conference, Groh said, “It’s a class that makes us a lot faster. Speed on the edges has not been a cornerstone of Virginia teams long before we were here. This class brings cumulatively, more speed here than has been the case, and we certainly intend to take advantage of that.”

But judging from the 40 times listed on the recruiting Web sites, this class doesn’t seem faster than previous ones. In fact, it seems like every year, fans or columnists say that the incoming class will increase our team speed. But this is the first time I remember Groh saying it, so I trust his opinion and I hope he is right.

Groh has recently said this about Javanti Sparrow: "When we said this class would, amongst other things, make the team faster and be one of the faster classes we've had here, he certainly was one of the players in mind. We knew that by numbers and by video, but to see that with our own eyes, he's legitimately fast."

Did any position units get too many or too few recruits?

The recruits are pretty well distributed over the various position units. We got four defensive ends, which I think is a bit excessive—notwithstanding the fact that we are thin there—and no nose tackles.

We are pretty thin at nose tackle, so it wouldn’t surprise me if one of the defensive ends will end up at the nose. Will Hill and Justin Renfrow would be most likely because they have the body type needed.

Here are a few other things to like about the class

One player that won’t show up in most lists is Drew Jarrett, who is a recruited walk-on as a place kicker and was one of the best kickers in the state. He could end up being among the most important recruits, as a good place kicker can be among a team’s most important players.

It’s risky to offer a kicker a scholarship out of high school, since it’s a waste of a scholarship if they don’t win the starting position. Unlike most positions, it’s quite common for the starting kicker to begin as a walk-on.

For example, Connor Hughes, UVA’s best kicker in the last decade and arguably the best in the school’s history, started as a walk-on. Chris Hinkebein, who was offered a scholarship out of high school, is handling Virginia’s kickoff duties but doesn’t appear to have the accuracy to do field goals. Therefore, our field goal kicking was poor last year as we scrambled to find someone who could do the job.

So, it’s less risky to recruit good kickers as walk-ons and then give them a scholarship if they win the starting position, which is exactly the offer we made to Jarrett. He chose UVA over a scholarship offer from JMU, confident that he could become the starter.

If Hinkebein never wins the field goal kicking duties, I would say that his scholarship is a waste.

We got 14 players from Virginia, which is probably the most Groh has ever gotten in one class. Seven of those are from the Tidewater area, which is a hotbed for talent, and Virginia has been rightly criticized for not doing well there in the past.

Ultimately I want to recruit the best players that can survive UVA’s academic rigors and represent the school well no matter where they come from, but, as I persuasively argued in last year’s article, I think there are advantages of getting in-state players. I was appalled that we only got three in-state recruits last year.

This is a big class compared to the number of scholarships that seem to be available. Usually, Virginia seems to be a bit conservative in the number of players it signs, so it doesn't risk having the problem that some schools have where they sign too many players and have to ask some to wait a semester (called gray-shirting) or an entire year to enroll, or even finding ways to kick current non-contributing players off the team.

However, the Cavaliers always have unexpected attrition: Academic casualties, injuries, behavioral misfits, and guys who leave for personal reasons. When they don’t have 85 scholarship players, they give scholarships to several hard-working walk-ons who rarely see the field. While this is a magnanimous gesture to the loyal walk-ons, it’s not the best way to win championships.

Though a few months ago, it looked like they would have trouble getting to the 85 limit, it now appears that they have exactly 85, caused by “unexpected” attrition.

We didn’t have many de-commitments in the 2009 class, especially considering our losing record and the fact that three coaches were fired after last season.

It seems like every year we have at least a couple decommits. Caleb Porzel committed briefly last spring before changing his mind. The early ones don't hurt nearly as much as the late ones.

Tyree Watkins was the other decommit, as he was wavering for months before changing his mind. In the past, it seems like the guys that are iffy for several months usually decommit in the end, so it didn’t surprise anyone. After he changed his mind, the coaches we able to replace him in the last week with Bobby Smith, a tall receiver out of Richmond, so the damage was minimal.

So what’s the conclusion on this year’s class?

Most UVA fans seem pretty happy with the prospects we signed, and I feel the same way.

Most recruiting analysts put us in the middle of the ACC as far as recruiting classes go, which—if the rankings are an accurate predictor of future success—will keep us where we’ve generally been during Groh’s tenure: in the middle of the ACC. I don’t know however, if this is the sort of class that will get us to where we want to go: The ACC championship game.

Now, it’s up to the coaches to do something with the talent. In recent years, Miami and Florida State have gotten the highest-ranked recruiting classes, and it hasn’t necessarily translated to success on the field.

Virginia Tech, the most dominant team in the conference over the past five years, typically gets recruiting classes ranked in the middle of the pack. So, it’s not impossible to win championships with these guys.

What about next year’s class?

Virginia won’t be graduating very many seniors next year, so I expect the recruiting class of 2010 to be small—maybe around 18 players.

Recruits want to play on a winning team. I think our weak recruiting class for 2008 was partly due to our 5-7 record in 2006 and our strong class this year was partly due to a 9-4 record in 2007. Our poor 5-7 record last year could spell trouble for next year’s class, so maybe it’s a good thing that it will be small in number. That will allow the coaches to focus on the best players that we have a good chance with.

We are off to a decent start so far, but unfortunately, it appears we aren’t in the running for many four- or five-star recruits, or for many recruits from the state of Virginia.

Go Hoos!

University Of Virginia 2009 Football Preview

John Gilmer — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 23:22:27 -0400

Now that spring practice is underway for the football team, it’s time for my annual predictions of Virginia’s chances of success on the gridiron this fall. As always, I write as a fan, and not as an objective journalist. I will analyze each position unit, looking at which players have left the team and who will most likely be in the starting lineup (with the help of a nifty depth chart from http://fromoldvirginia.blogspot.com/2008/09/depth-chart-by-class.html). This will give UVA football fans something to do while shirking their duties at work as they are waiting for news from spring practice.

One variable that makes this analysis tough is no one knows where Vic Hall is going to play. He came to Virginia as one of the most prolific quarterbacks in the history of high school football in the entire country. He was known as an accurate passer, an elusive runner, and an outstanding leader. What more could you want in a college QB? But his 5'9" height was a problem. So before his second season, he moved to cornerback. The reasons given at the time were:

He wanted to see the field early and cornerback was a thin unit where’d he’d be able to do that.
If he wanted to play in the NFL some day, this was his most likely position.

Early in his career, Vic wasn’t very good at cornerback and was the target of opposing offenses. Last year he was solid, but I haven’t heard anyone saying that he has NFL talent at the position. Groh has occasionally made some slotting decisions that make one scratch one’s head, but this one takes the cake.

I side with many fans who have always thought that Hall should have been on the offensive side of the ball and should have been given more of a chance at QB. When you look at his stats from high school—he didn’t even play defense. The fact that our QB position has given us so much turmoil and inconsistency over the last three years, I can’t see how the switch to defense could be justified. Of course, the coaches though Jameel Sewell was the QB of the future and didn’t know he’d flunk out of school. Hall is a similar height to Marques Hagans, who was a fine QB for Virginia four years ago but has put on weight since he stepped on campus, so he should be durable enough.

To the fans’ delight, Hall was given a chance to play QB in the last game of this past season. It was a gutsy move by Groh, and Vic showed off some impressive running ability but didn’t throw much. So here’s the question we’ve all been wondering for the last few months: Will Vic be on offense or defense for his last year?

A recent article quoted Groh as saying that Vic will be given a shot at QB in spring practice. I don’t know if he’ll have a shot as a full-time QB or just a change-of-pace QB. If he doesn’t win the QB position, I don’t know if he’ll go back to cornerback or will get time on the offense as a running back or receiver. If I were the coach, I would give him a shot at full-time QB. In light of all this, my position unit analysis will put Hall at QB rather than defensive back.

Another variable is the fact that if you look at the current roster, including who is leaving the team and the incoming freshman, there are more players than Virginia has room for, if you take into consideration the 85-scholarship limit. So there’s bound to be some attrition between now and September, as there always is, which could invalidate some of my analysis. It wouldn’t surprise me to find out about some of that attrition during spring practice. For example, Mark Ambrose has recently left the team because of recurring shoulder problems.

So without further qualifiers, here is the analysis by position unit:

Quarterback

Jameel Sewell, Marc Verica, and Vic Hall are going into spring practice in a three-way competition for the QB spot. There is some chance red-shirt freshman Riko Smalls will enter the fray, but I am guessing he’ll have to wait another year to really get a shot. Sewell was the starter for two years and showed promise, though suffered accuracy problems, before being suspended for a year due to academics. Verica was thrust into the starting role this past season and struggled at first. In the middle of the season, he played quite well and looked like he could be the second coming of Matt Schaub.

In the last third of the season, he seemed to regress and threw more interceptions than humanly possible, which resulted in Hall playing QB for much of the last game of the season. None of us knows how the competition will shake out, but if I had to guess, I think Sewell and Hall will end up sharing the QB duties. They can both run with the ball, which adds considerable firepower to the new spread option offense we’ll be running. When Hall isn’t the QB, he could be given another role on offense, or he could play part-time on defense (e.g. on the nickel package). I think Groh hates interceptions too much to give Verica another shot when he’s got two other options at QB.

Players we lose

Scott Deke (career backup)

Predicted two-deep and production

QB: Jameel Sewell, Vic Hall

I predict an improvement in production at the QB position compared to last year. I am not saying it will be stellar, but it was lousy enough last year that it can only get better, especially with a seasoned offensive coordinator taking over for one that wasn’t ready for the job.

Running back

We have a lot of somewhat-talented players at RB. Who will step up and grab the starting position? It’s hard to predict. You would have to think that Mikell Simpson has the inside track, given the fact that he started half of 2007 and was the first RB off the bench last year. He seemed to be a star in the making in 2007 but regressed this past year. I have no idea what happened to him. I’ve heard some good things about juniors Keith Payne and Raynard Horne, sophomore Max Milien. But the player that seems to be getting the most impressive reviews from practice is Torrey Mack, who will be a redshirt freshman. Plus we have Rawshawn Jackson, who is solid at fullback. I will go out on a limb and predict that Simpson and Mack start the season splitting the carries.

Players we lose

Cedric Peerman

Predicted two-deep and production

RB: Mikell Simpson, Torrey Mack

I predict an improvement in production at the RB position compared to last year. Granted, Peerman was a very good runner and important as the team’s motivational and spiritual leader. However, I am basing my prediction on the fact that most of the running production is due to the offensive line, and I expect the line to be much improved next year.

Receiver

This will be an interesting position to watch. We lost our three top wide-outs, and we are switching to a spread offense that heavily uses four-receiver sets. There will be plenty of playing time to be had. I was really hoping that Kevin Ogletree would come back for his senior season, but I wish him the best in the NFL. If he had come back, he could have been one of the greatest receivers in UVA history. I am very excited to see Tim Smith play this year. He might even start by the end of the year. Groh has said that he thinks Jared Green is a star in the making and that he also likes Javaris Brown, who will be a red-shirt freshman. I have high hopes for Inman, who was impressive enough to play as a true freshman, but hasn’t yet developed as much as I was expecting.

Inman and Staton Jobe both saw their production drop quite a bit last year, compared with the previous season. Kris Burd looked solid this past season as a redshirt freshman. I have heard speculation that Max Milien might switch from running back to receiver, since there’s a log jam at RB, so I’ll list him as a receiver. I’ve wondered to myself if Simpson might be given some time at receiver. Earlier in his career, it was said we might use him like Percy Harvin, Florida’s receiver/running back hybrid.

I will include tight ends here as well. This is going to be a tricky area. We’ll have six players currently listed as TE on next year’s roster, if there are no changes. Groh loves recruiting lots of tall, rangy, athletic players who could play multiple positions.

UVA has had more passes caught by TE than any other team in college football, during Groh’s tenure. The problem is the new spread offense doesn’t really use TE much at all. So what will happen to all the TE on the roster? My guess is that some will be kept as TE since we will use them on occasion, and some could be asked to switch to OL, receiver, or DE. Reportedly Andrew Devlin has switched to DE and Mark Ambrose has left the team. Beyond that, your guess is as good as mine for where each one will end up. I am also guessing that Groh won’t remove all vestiges of a pro-style offense from the play calling, since he spent most of his career coaching in the NFL.

Players we lose

Kevin Ogletree

Maurice Covington (it’s too bad that Covington had his redshirt burned for a few snaps near the end of his first year when Groh wasn’t happy with the play of the older receivers)

John Phillips (it’s too bad that Phillips didn’t get a red-shirt year—I correctly predicted he would win all-ACC this past year, his first as a starter—I would love to have him back)

Predicted two-deep and production

WR: Dontrelle Inman, Javaris Brown

WR: Jared Green, Tim Smith

WR: Staton Jobe, Max Milien

WR: Kris Burd

TE: Joe Torchia

I think that the overall talent of our receivers will not be as high as it was last year, since we are losing three experienced wide-outs, one of whom has NFL talent, plus an All-ACC TE. However, I predict the production of our receivers will go up because we are switching to Gregg Brandon’s spread offense. And I am excited about some of the young talent that we have.

Offensive Line

We are losing our best OL, Eugene Monroe, who is predicted to be a top-five pick in the NFL draft. But the other four starting OL will be returning. There will be a competition for Monroe’s spot at left tackle, and if incoming tackle Morgan Moses qualifies academically, rather than having to prep for a year, it would be interesting to see if he’s in contention for the spot. OL is a position, more than any other, where players usually benefit from a couple of seasons watching, learning and growing, but Groh has played several other talented guys in their true freshman year (Brandon Albert, Austin Pasztor, and Eugene Monroe). I am hoping for a big senior year out of Will Barker, because so far he hasn’t lived up to my hopes for someone who won a starting position as a red-shirt freshman.

Players we lose

Eugene Monroe

Zak Stair (career backup, though he started occasionally when filling in for others)

Patrick Slebonick (career backup, not being invited back for fifth season)

Predicted two-deep and production

LT: Landon Bradley, Matt Mihalik

LG: Austin Pasztor, Billy Cuffee

C: Jack Shields, Anthony Mihota

RG: B.J. Cabbell, Isaac Cain

RT: Will Barker, Lamar Milstead

Even though we lost Monroe, I’m hoping for big improvement overall in this unit. Three of the OL this past year were first-year starters, and it showed. OL is a position unit where all the players need to learn to play in synch more than most other units. There’s a lot of subtle communication and coordination that occurs when several players have been together for multiple years.

Defensive Line

This unit has nowhere to go but up. This is not because they were terrible last year—though they had taken a big step down from the previous year after losing Jeffrey Fitzgerald and Chris Long—but because two of the players on the line have the potential to be studs and were starting as redshirt freshman last year: Nick Jenkins and Matt Conrath.

John-Kevin Dolce isn’t on the two-deep below, though I expect he’ll continue to play in the nickel package like last season. Unlike many positions where the starter plays almost every snap, I expect Jenkins and Nate Collins to continue splitting the snaps at nose tackle.

Players we lose

Alex Field (it’s too bad that Field had his redshirt burned for a few snaps his first year)

Jason Fuller (career backup, not being invited back for fifth season)

Predicted two-deep and production

DE: Matt Conrath, Kevin Crawford

NT: Nick Jenkins, Nate Collins

DE: Zane Parr, Andrew Devlin

Even though we are losing Field and thus will have a new starter on one side, I predict a big step up for this unit as Conrath and Jenkins mature.

Linebackers

Of all the position units on the team, this is the one that will be hardest hit. We are losing three good players out of four linebackers—two of whom have started for three years and one who has started for four years. John Copper has been Virginia’s leading tackler for three years in a row. Clint Sintim is a quarterback’s worst nightmare (beside Chris Long) and will be taken on the first day of the NFL draft. One question is whether Cam Johnson, who played as a backup last year as a true freshman and looks like a future star, will be able to win a starting spot over two senior outside linebackers who both started for part of last year: Denzell Burrell and Aaron Clark.

Things are even murkier at inside linebacker, where there are quite a few guys that could win the spots. Darren Childs should have the inside track on one spot, as he filled in admirably when Appleby was hurt for two games. Jared Detrick will be a junior and started playing as a true freshman because Groh said he had superior talent. I don’t think he’ll win a starting spot, which makes me wonder if he would benefit from a mid-career redshirt so that he would still have two years as a starter left, unless the coaches have realized that he doesn’t have the talent to be a starter. Terrence Fells-Danzer had a lot of hype coming out of high school, so we’ll see if the light starts to come on for him (it hasn’t yet, from what I’ve heard). Aaron Taliaferro will reportedly get a chance to switch from the outside to inside.

Players we lose

Clint Sintim

Jon Copper

Antonio Appleby

Predicted two-deep and production

OLB: Denzel Burrell, Cam Johnson

ILB: Darren Childs, Terence Fells-Danzer

ILB: Steve Greer, Darnell Carter

OLB: Aaron Clark, Aaron Taliaferro or Jared Detrick

I think there will be a serious decline in the production of this unit. It’s impossible to replace three long-term starters with new guys without seeing a drop-off. Let’s hope that the improvement in the secondary and defensive line will take up the slack.

Secondary

This could be Virginia’s most talented secondary under Groh. Groh has never had studs in the secondary like he has at most other positions—even if just sporadically. The safety spot in particular seems to be a liability every year. I have read that Brandon Woods will be invited back for a fifth season, which surprised me given our scholarship crunch and the fact that he didn’t look too impressive last year This must mean the coaches don’t have must confidence in the other backups at safety. We’ll have two young talented players at cornerback—Ras-I Dowling and Chase Minnifield—and a third, Rodney McLeod, will be switching to safety.

Chris Cook was a talented cornerback, before he was suspended for a year and will return for his senior season. With Corey Mosely taking over one of the safety positions this past season as a redshirt freshman, this unit is very solid.

On a side note, it’s interesting to me that Groh often puts taller defensive backs at cornerback and shorter ones at safety. I tend to think that the opposite should be true, that cornerbacks would be the smaller, quicker of the two positions. Dowling and Cook are both 6'2" while Mosely and McLeod are both 5'10".

Players we lose

Byron Glaspy (former walk-on who earned a starting spot but could never seem to put it together in my opinion)

Vic Hall (I know he’s here another year, but I’m predicting he plays mostly on offense)

Predicted two-deep and production

CB: Ras I Dowling, Mike Parker

S: Rodney McLeod, Matt Leemhuis

S: Corey Mosely, Brandon Woods

CB: Chris Cook, Chase Minifield

I think this unit will be much more productive than last year. We didn’t lose many key players, and our young, talented guys have another year of experience.

Kickers

This is another unit that has nowhere to go but up. Jimmy Howell played punter as a true freshman this past season and did OK, so I’m expecting him to improve his range and consistency this year. The field goal kicking was pretty bad last year, as two walk-ons—Yannick Reyering and Robert Randolph—battled for the position and neither one impressed. I suppose they will continue to battle it out, with another walk-on— true freshman Drew Jarrett—added to the mix. I still have hope that Chris Hinkebein, who is handling Virginia’s kick-off duties but not field goals, can learn the accuracy needed to win the position.

Players we lose

None

Predicted two-deep and production

Punter: Jimmy Howell

Kick offs: Chris Hinkebein

Field goals: Yannick Reyering or Robert Randolph or Drew Jarrett or Chris Hinkebein (how’s that for some certainty?)

There’s no question in my mind that the kicking unit will be better than last year. The big question is whether an accurate field goal kicker will emerge? Groh has had some talented kickers, which makes a big difference when the game is on the line.

Overall Prediction

I think Virginia will much better than last year. Maybe I am being overly optimistic, but I am especially excited about the new offensive coordinator, Gregg Brandon. I know that the spread offense isn’t a magic bullet for success—just ask Michigan. However, many of the teams that have used it in recent years have proven it to be very successful. There are no other teams in the ACC that use a similar offense, so it will be a challenge for defenses to prepare for every week.

During Groh’s tenure, we’ve never had an experienced, proven guru at OC. The defense has been pretty stout the last few years, but the offense has been dismal. One of the main factors contributing to the Groh’s teams under-performing is the constant turnover among the assistant coaches. That being said—five of the nine assistants are new for next season—I’m quite excited about the current coaches and hope they stay a while.

Another main factor in Groh’s teams underachieving has been the attrition of key players. This was especially painful last spring, when Virginia lost many starters to various issues, and it continued in the fall when Peter Lalich, the starting QB, was kicked off the team. I think the fact that there has been very little attrition so far in the off-season is a harbinger of success in 2009.

So looking back at the position unit analysis, I’ve predicted a higher level of production for every unit except for the linebackers—though the receiving corps will also be taking a big hit. So I think we can expect a winning season in 2009. Hope springs eternal.

Virginia Football: Analysis of the 2008 Recruiting Class

John Gilmer — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 01:07:30 -0400

You might be wondering why I am writing this now when the signing day was months ago. It’s mostly because after signing day, there are scores of articles on the subject, but now is a slow time where we can really reflect—and fans hungry for something to read in the off-season might actually read my article.

Let me start with a disclaimer: I am not a recruiting guru. If you are, then this article won’t contain much new for you. I am not a subscriber at Rivals, Scout, or The Sabre. I used to subscribe several years ago until I realized I was too obsessed and addicted.

For example, not was it only very time-consuming, but I found recruiting was the first thing I would think about when I woke up in the morning, and my mood was controlled by the answers that 17-year old boys gave to insightful questions, such as: “How did your feelings toward UVA change when you took a dump in their locker room on your official visit?”

So now, without the subscriptions, I follow it from afar and use the extra time to do things like spend time with my wife and kids.

Anyway…enough about me. Everyone knows that UVA’s recruiting class was ranked among the lowest in the ACC. The low ranking is based partially on the average star rating and partially on the fact that it was a small class (18 signees).

We knew all along that it would be a small class because of the small number of graduating seniors, so that’s not a big problem.

Now, fans often debate about the accuracy of star ratings. There are those who think star ratings are everything and use USC as their example. (USC has been the best team in the 2000s and regularly has the top ranked recruiting class, but it’s a question of the chicken and the egg: are they good because they get the best players, or do the best players want to go there because they are so good?)

There are those who think star ratings mean nothing and use past UVA players Brandon Albert (who was completely unnoticed in high school but was recently drafted in the first round) and Michael Johnson (the five-star running back who did nothing in college) as their examples.

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle.

For a given player, star ratings don’t determine their future success, but in aggregate getting more higher ranked players will translate to a more talented team, everything else being equal. The higher ranked players are the ones that more top colleges are recruiting, so those players must have something that many coaches think has historically led to talented college players. Here’s a great article about whether the rankings are accurate:

http://www.postandcourier.com/news/2008/feb/03/grading_gradersranking_football_recruits29508/

Most of the article is giving examples of when the ratings were inaccurate. However, the stat given near the end seems to prove that higher rated players are more likely to be top college players. So the rankings certainly miss on plenty of players, but taken as a whole they end up being a good indicator of the level of talent a program is bringing in.

Here’s the quote from the article:

“Extensive research into SEC and ACC recruiting history does indicate that upper-tier prospects have a better chance of succeeding. The Post and Courier examined every prospect signed from 2002 to 2005 in both leagues, calculating how many have gone on to make first- or second-team all-conference. In the ACC, 19.2 percent of four- and five-stars (46 of 239) have made one of those teams, according to Rivals' ratings. For three stars and lower, the percentage dips to 8.1 (64 of 786). There's a similar gap in the SEC, where 17.3 percent of four- and five-star players signed (52 of 300) have made first- or second-team all-conference, according to Scout's ratings. For the lower-tier players, the percentage is 6.6 percent (57 of 859).”

I am not overly disappointed in UVA’s class given the fact that there is no player in particular that I’m unhappy about—all of them have a lot of potential, particularly unsung guys like Tory Allen who haven’t played much football before (like Brandon Albert). But here are a few things that concern me:

1. I think we should take a bigger class. It seems like we never approach the 85 scholarship limit, such that we have extras to award non-contributing walk-ons. This is because we always experience significant attrition, which it seems like the coaches don’t take into account when they aim for only 18 players.

We’ve lost seven players so far in 2008, with rumors that more could be on the way. It’s possible that the four academic suspensions could return, but the past track record isn’t good with these cases returning.

2. In the final couple months of recruiting, we lost quite a few highly rated guys that we were in very good position with. I know we had a bad record in 2006, which might have cost us with some early verbals, but with a good 2007 season, we should have finished strong with undecided recruits.

Here are some that we whiffed on late:

Randall Dunn

AJ Price

Corey Lewis

RJ Mattes

Omoregie Uzzi

Shayne Hale

Jarred Holley

Cameron Saddler

Granted, two of the above were guys who committed to us earlier and signed elsewhere at the last minute, and losing only two after coach Mike London’s departure isn’t too bad.

3. We didn’t get enough offensive lineman. We are quite thin there and I was hoping for five signers. We got three, plus Michael Price could end up there. I supposed it wasn’t for lack of trying since three of the players on the whiffed list above are OL.

4. We got our tails kicked in an unprecedented and incomprehensible way in-state by Virginia Tech. More on this below.

So, my overall conclusion is that I am not disappointed with the guys that we signed. I am just disappointed about some of the ones that slipped through our hands. So let’s wait and see which one of these unheralded guys becomes the next Heath Miller.

Now I’d like to address the fact that our in-state recruiting was so poor this year. We only got one player from VA’s consensus top 30 recruits (Buddy Ruff), plus two more that were less heralded.

On one side, you have those who say that it doesn’t matter at all where our recruits come from—they could all be out of state if they are good players.

On the other side, you have people that say we’ll never be a successful program if we don’t do a better job of recruiting in state; that we’ll never surpass VT until we surpass them in in state recruiting; that VA football players are better than surrounding states.

I reject both of these extremes. When a player commits to come here, I am just as excited about them whether or not they are in state. And I love our past and current players just the same whether or not they came from in state.

That said, here are some reasons that I think it’s important to get as many players as possible from in state:

1. When we get in-state recruits, it can create pipelines from certain high schools. It’s not impossible that this could occur at an out-of-state school, but much less likely because loyalty from a given high school is much more likely to be to an in-state college.

For example, several recruits from Pennsylvania that we were in good shape with at the end of the season suddenly decided to go to Pitt, largely because it was an in-state school.

2. I am going to be a rabid UVA fan no matter whom we recruit, but that is not the case for everyone. This is especially true for non-alums that live in VA. They are more likely to be UVA fans if the local stars go to UVA. If we get a larger non-alum VA fan base, the benefits are myriad:

a. More people coming to games and clamoring for media coverage.

b. More media coverage has a feedback effect that creates more fans

c. More fans and media coverage makes future recruits more likely to be UVA fans.

d. This has an obvious feedback effect for years to come

3. If more of our recruiting is in state, this allows the coaches to spend less money and time recruiting because the geographical footprint area in which they are spending most of their time driving around is smaller.

That is why I don’t agree with people who argue that we should be recruiting more in talent hotbeds like FL. There is plenty of talent in the area from NC to NY, such that I don’t think we should be going outside this area unless there is a recruit with UVA ties or they have a 3.9 GPA or some other reason that we should go out of our way.

4. You can get an inside scoop on recruits that might be under the radar, or even if they aren’t under the radar, you can recruit them early and get a head start.

This is because you have developed a good relationship with coaches and people in the know in VA who tip you off to rising stars, and because you see younger players in their freshman to junior years as you are scouting the older players.

5. The Virginia Athletics Foundation is the fund-raising arm of the athletic department, and they are responsible for paying tuition to the university for every scholarship athlete. The VAF has to pay UVA a lot more money for out of state scholarships than in state.

To back up these ideas about loyalty and pipelines from in-state schools, I will share some examples from things I have read in the past year. I have seen a number of quotes from VT commits last year saying that one of the reasons they chose it is because there are other current VT players from their region.

This sort of thing has a cumulative effect over time. For example, Isaiah Hamlette, who committed to VT: "I want to represent the state of Virginia when I play in college…This class at Tech has that—a bunch of guys with the same goal."

Darrel Roberts had this to say about his close friend Tyrod Taylor (a current VT player) before committing: "We always get together and throw the ball around and workout…We're building chemistry, and the plus with that is that I know who the quarterback of the future is… Tech has a lot of '757' players. They pretty much run that school."

After committing to VT, he said, "I've got friends like Tyrod there." (757 is the area code for the Peninsula area of the state, which produces a lot of D1 talent.)

After committing to Virginia Tech, Bobby Massie (who actually de-committed later) said. "It was just how the players liked Virginia Tech and how they are from all over Virginia. They love it there. They seemed to be just like me. They are the same people I'm used to being around. I just felt comfortable."

Here’s a great article about how important it is for the college coaches to build long-term relationships with high school coaches:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/recruiting/football/columns/story?id=3225454

One telling quote from the article: “The most successful recruiting pipelines seem to develop because of a coach's prior ties there, or simply the length of time he has been coming back to the same schools.”

During Groh’s tenure, there has been a lot of turnover with the assistant coaches, which VT has experienced comparatively little of.

This is not saying that our coaches aren’t trying hard enough at in-state recruiting. For all I know, they are working as hard as they can already. We are off to a fantastic start for the 2009 class.

In most years since Groh was hired, we have been approximately equal to VT in in-state recruiting, and overall recruiting, which makes it all the harder to swallow the disparity in on-field results. UVA and VT usually split the majority of top-30 VA recruits. Two years ago was an aberration where neither of us did well in-state.

With the way the class of 2009 is shaping up, it appears 2008 was an aberration and not, as some have posited, the start of a trend resulting from VT’s dominance over us on the field during Groh’s tenure.