Bleacher Report - Articles by Ryan Raber

Bowl Projections a Near Impossibility: Could the SEC Be Overrated?

Ryan Raber — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 11:28:33 -0500

As soon as we head into the chill of November, it seems most everyone wants to present some manner of bowl projections. Every year, it proves to be a most futile exercise.

Look at what the Big XII title game has done in its 11-year history. For example, in 2008, many a Longhorn fan likely had to cancel Miami plans. Oops...

What makes this exercise even more absurd in 2009 is the mediocrity in the "deep" conferences. There are some conferences who have well earned their reputations—one way or another.

But I ask you, can it be that some of the "elite" conferences are trading on reputation and not much more?

Big XII

In 2008, they boasted three of the top eight in the BCS, with sound support from the balance. You could build your case that it was top to bottom the strongest conference overall in 2008 (NOT for eternity, SEC fans).

Then came bowl season. A close Texas win in the Fiesta was about the only thing that kept the conference from complete failure, and even that one was closer than most thought.

In 2009, the Big XII North is even more of a joke than usual. Texas A&M has regressed—which is admittedly enjoyable for all Longhorn fans. Texas Tech has regressed at QB with no Graham Harrell/Michael Crabtree.

All this leaves Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State to carry the load. Even there, Oklahoma has been snakebitten by injuries and thus "down" at 5-3. As an aside, Oklahoma does have a championship defense in '09, and they will be a tough out down the stretch. Someone should have told Sam Bradford to call Matt Leinart. Bad guidance...

SEC

Perennial power with well-established programs and plenty of depth. BCS titles more so than anyone else and a passionate and knowledgeable fanbase of diehards.

In 2008 Ole Miss shocks Florida and ignites BOTH teams down the stretch. Alabama has a near perfect season.

In 2009, the SEC lays claim to three top 10 teams with a combined one loss. Many suggest it is a foregone conclusion that the SEC champ is in Pasadena.

The "top to bottom" argument has more holes in it than Georgia's secondary. SIX teams in the SEC find themselves at or below .500 winning percentage. VERY unlikely they can fill all of their bowl commitments. (For comparison, Big XII has two sub-.500, the Pac-10 has three, and the Big Ten/Eleven has four).

Outside of the top three, there can be little argument the conference is gaining benefit on past accomplishments.

Pac-10

Has long been talked of the Pac 1+9. 2008 bowl season goes swimmingly well, and the Washington/Washington State nightmare is swept under the rug.

2009 opens with the Oregon debacle, but then something odd happens. ALMOST all teams surprise on the good side. Washington inexplicably beats USC and SHOULD have beat Notre Dame. Coach: GET THE EIGHT-POINT lead! Make two plays beat you!

Oregon is rolling, Arizona is undefeated in conference, and Cal has righted the ship. Stanford has even joined the party.

Big Ten

In 2008, another season of fundamental football meets the bowl season with a resounding thud. Flagship Penn State had their pants yanked down before USC and the world. This could have been much worse had Pete Carroll not shown some mercy. Ohio State plays their best game of the year but falls again in the Fiesta Bowl.

2009: Media darling Iowa is now carrying the banner while Penn State and Ohio State battle for a New Year's bid and second place. Should Iowa run the table, take their opponent minus the points in ANY BCS GAME THEY GO TO. You heard it here first!

As to the bowl projections and just how nonsensical they can be, let's explore this scenario:

Nov. 7: LSU beats Alabama in a hard-fought, close game. It could happen, as these teams are moving in opposite directions.

Rest of November: Form holds and the top 10 win out.

Dec. 5: Texas wins Big XII, LSU shocks Florida in the rematch in Atlanta.

Results: Texas No. 1 in BCS. Cincy, Iowa also undefeated from major (BCS) conferences. TCU and Boise State sit at 12-0.

Oregon is right behind (and must STAY behind) Boise State due to their Sept. 4 results. They are the best one-loss team as of this article. Oregon has the SOS and the common opponent of Washington (won by 24) to stay ahead of LSU (won by three) no matter what history tells us.

Let's pretend the ESPN/media train takes LSU as their champion. LSU should pass BSU, might pass Cincy at 12-0, and would pass 11-1 Bama and 12-1 Florida. At 12-0, no matter how ugly, 12-0 Iowa will get the nod—with wins ON THE ROAD against Penn State, OSU, Wisconsin, and MSU that the computers cannot ignore.

The SEC could have three one-loss teams in the top 10 and have NO SHOT at the national title. Embrace the horror.

This is just a possible outcome, with no more merit or no less merit than anyone else's. We may have a lot more, or a lot less, to talk about next Monday.

THE BCS- Turning a Great Sport into an Exhibition

Ryan Raber — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 09:28:27 -0500

My wife once asked me how I couldn't possibly like the Olympics as much as her. I said because there wasn't enough sport, and there were too many exhibitions.

This of course led to the definition of a sport. It is more simple than many think. A sport must include two vital attributes: someone playing DEFENSE, and an objective scoring system.

Even for my love of golf, it is a GAME, not a sport. It involves skill, coordination, and a competitive instinct. Being athletic HELPS (Tiger physique), but it is not prerequisite (John Daly physique). However... no one plays defense. But I digress...

What a mess this BCS is. People need to 'define the debate' as they share their opinion. When it comes to splitting ties and ranking and such, there is a difference between who is 'playing the best,' and who is 'most deserving.'

If Florida wins, the mess gets even WORSE. One fanbase will look at marqee wins, one might look to body of work, one may look to momentum, and yet others may look at meeting expectations.

I think the proper way to assess the participants is by assessing the merits of the lone loss each player attained. As big a Texas fan as I am, the notion on some blogs has them playing OU if Florida wins a close one... and that would be CRIMINAL to the SEC champs.

Mind you, I won't cry for long. And it may happen.

Florida will pick up some, but not nearly enough ground in the computers. Their conference mates REALLY hosed them last week! You have 12-1 Oklahoma, 11-1 Texas, 12-1 Florida... then 11-1 USC, 12-1 Alabama, 11-1 Texas Tech, and 11-1 Penn State.

The BCS game in Miami discussion truthfully stops after the top three. With OU and Texas owning 1-2 in the computers (in a perversion of sorts, now Texas beating OU looks even better), Florida would have to be NEAR unanimous in the human polls to make up the ground.

Seeing as a couple coaches ALREADY have OU No. 1, and many more will fully be aware that Texas has beaten them by 10. THEN, some may consider that despite being WHITE hot, Florida's home loss to an unranked (but good) team is unforgivable. Splitting it somewhat is going to happen.

All I am saying is that at LEAST these three, and in many ways 'Bama (potential loss too late) and USC (loss to unranked team, and soft schedule), all belong in the discussion. The magnitude of the Tech loss is what eliminates them—though THEY SHOULD be in the discussion. Under current rules, only two can play—and no matter if they pick the best, hottest, or most deserving... everyone else will have a legit beef.

College Football is OFFICIALLY now an exhibition... not a sport. This thought makes me want to vomit in my own mouth, but it is happening. Speaking of criminal, Ohio State getting the nod over 12-0 Boise State based on business sense and not on field achievement doesn't quite smell right either, but book it. (And another BCS loss!)

The REAL BCS Forecast For Teams That Wear Orange Or Red

Ryan Raber — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 02:19:53 -0500

Much to my chagrin, Oregon State's utility for the rest of us is about to run out. As nice as it was for them to eliminate USC from the title picture, Their best case is 9-3 and a TIE in the PAC 10. Realistically, they lose one of their last three against the 'better' half of the Pac 10 schedule, and they close at 8-4 or so.

This likely has several important ramifications.

USC will be the Pac 1+9 champ again, and they will THROTTLE the Big 10+1 rep—no matter who it is. With all apologies to the fantastic Joe Paterno, I sort of hope that Michigan State wins so the Rose Bowl and all their stubborn tradition gets the eagerly awaited... tongue in cheek... USC-Ohio State matchup!

I hope it is worse than 35-3 this time, and it may well be if the Trojans are focused and angry.

The more losses Oregon State takes, the worse USC stands to fare in the 'who is the best one-loss team' discussion. The Beaver's reward for a strong season will likely be an also ran in the Big XII in the Holiday Bowl—Okie State or Mizzou—either one of which will blitzkrieg Oregon State in epic fashion.

As to the Big XII, Tech running the table may be a stiffer challenge than some think. I believe Stoops' Sooners are 56-2 or something in Norman under his regime. So let's have fun and assume that OU beats Tech. Now we have our impossible to solve, everyone is right, and everyone is wrong problem.

Even though I vomit in my mouth a little each time I think it, Oklahoma probably jumps Texas in the BCS standings. I can only hope that the coaches (and not their assistants) really sit back and examine the merits of one's body of work—which SHOULD include head to head matchups, quality of wins AND losses.

Potential flys in the ointment:

A suddenly forgotten, but formidable Mizzou in the Big XII game.

A pesky South Carolina or talented, but raw Florida State.

Rivals Oklahoma State, Auburn, Texas a&m- who have made a living out of being overlooked.

If form holds, Texas Tech will play Florida in Miami, and it will be a thriller! That being said, form NEVER holds this time of year. I will forecast the most unlikely scenario of all:

OU beats Texas Tech, then loses in Stillwater and returns to Dallas for the Cotton Bowl—where they will wipe the field with LSU or some other SEC 2nd tier.
Florida squeaks by Spurrier and co., coasts through Citadel (in November... REALLY?), and gets shocked in Tallahasee. They then CLOBBER Alabama.

Tech wins the Big XII, and the suddenly invisible Texas Longhorns slide into the BCS game for a little rematch/payback. The rematch is just as thrilling, but Texas wins this time (by the same margin of 6 if you want to know). Everyone now asks what that solved, and the truthful answer is... NOTHING!

As many as six teams have a legitamate belief their team earned the right to be there. This doesn't even account for potentially undefeated Utah or Boise State—or even Ball State if you're into that sort of thing.

Looking forward to your thoughts.

Settling the Big 12 Vs. Big Ten BCS Debate

Ryan Raber — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 01:28:07 -0500

With the immeasurable debate on whether Texas Tech deserves to have jumped to No. 2 over Penn State in the BCS, it is important to consider a few things.

First, if they lose—and my Longhorn Bias wants this to start happening this Saturday—it won't matter. As an aside, Tech fans should revel in a magnificent performance last week. I thought we might steal it, but Tech made one more play, and Texas did not.

Second, if Tech wins out, it won't matter, as Tech would have jumped Penn State anyway based on their schedule strength.

Lastly, it brings up a similar debate, most often weighed between the SEC and Big 12. Let's try it with the Big 12 vs. the Big Ten.

For argument's sake, I will remove a middle of the road Big 12 team (say Kansas) to equate with the Big Ten's 11 teams (that is SO unstable, it pains me to even write). I will use the current standings for both conferences.

No. 3 Penn State at No. 2 Texas Tech
No. 12 Ohio State at No. 5 Texas
No. 18 Michigan State at No. 6 Oklahoma
Northwestern at No. 8 Oklahoma State
No. 14 Missouri at Minnesota
Nebraska at Illinois
Iowa at Texas A&M
Colorado at Purdue
Kansas State at Indiana
Michigan at Baylor
Iowa State at Wisconsin

I tried to give home field an equal shake but afforded the higher-ranked team the benefit in most cases. If both teams play their best, Tech wins by 10-plus. Ohio State and Sparty lose badly. Northwestern might be the mercy kill special.

The Big Ten may catch wins with Wisconsin and Purdue, but it would be a stretch to see any more than three total THIS YEAR. Let's agree to be fair and trade on the merits of current performance...not on history or brand.

Is Texas Running Downhill from Lubbock to Miami?

Ryan Raber — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 04:08:58 -0400

At this crucial phase of the season, the list of teams with National Championship dreams has been whittled down to a manageable size. Some teams control their own destiny. Some teams need help. Others may simply realign their goals. Those that control their destiny may be further examined by the relative ease of their path.

Texas

The Longhorns have a critical road matchup in Lubbock against a very potent Texas Tech team—not nearly the bad blood that other rivalries have, but certainly mutual respect.

Should Texas survive their historically brutal stretch (four teams that have all been ranked in the top 10 and have a combined record of 28-4), they get a home date with a suddenly uppity traditional punching bag in Baylor. Then a roady to face Kansas. Then a Turkey day Battle Royale with arch nemesis Texas A&M. Two of those three are in Austin.

Alabama

The Tide faces a series of curious games. Arkansas State should go quietly, but they don't mind mixing it up with BCS schools. The biggest test remains at LSU in what will now be a make or break for the Tigers. The bayou is always a tough spot to win for the visitors.

Then comes a home game with supremely beatable Mississippi State, followed by another home date with archrival Auburn. As with Texas, the big rivalry game is looking more like a formality to close the regular season.

Penn State

Tough to see them losing, but Iowa could be pesky at home. Indiana could help their operating budget by canceling their flight. Then comes what could be a monumental game against Michigan State. Sparty has but one conference loss and could be playing for a trip to the Rose Bowl for the first time in a while.

Minnesota could REALLY toss a turd in the punch bowl if they can manage what now looks like a manageable home stretch, but that still requires a Penn State loss somewhere.

Georgia/Florida

The winner of the Cocktail Party slugfest this weekend gets to continue to hope for one of the biggies to slip up. The loser will become the spoiler for others.

Oklahoma/Oklahoma State/Texas Tech

The Round Robin from hell started last week. The top four in the Big 12 South have a combined 30-2 (both at the hands of No. 1 Texas, mind you) record and four of the top 10 offenses in the NCAA. Tech controls their destiny starting this week vs. Texas. The rest are simply trying to survive for BCS at-large berths.

USC

Here is a very talented and dangerous team that no one wants to play. Heavy favorites the rest of the way, they look as though their Corvallis blemish may be the only one. Some years that might be acceptable, but this does not look to be one of those years.

The fly in the ointment is the presence of conference championship games. Any BCS conference that gets an automatic bid SHOULD have to play in a conference championship—but that may be a topic for another day.

As it stands, the Big 11 and the Pac 1+9 are not on task with the other major players. Winning your division in the SEC or Big 12 gets you a late season game against another highly ranked team—usually in the top 10 or so. That is some kind of reward for taking care of your business.

What may well happen is that attrition will leave us with one undefeated and a slew of great one-loss teams, and then will come the lobbying/beauty contest. I think we can all take our sides with fervor when that time comes.

Enjoy the ride, folks—it is going to be a good one!

Who Would Win Big 12-SEC Challenge?

Ryan Raber — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 02:26:01 -0400

How great would it be if the minds behind the Big 12 and SEC could orchestrate something like the Big Ten and ACC do in basketball?

As several articles and posts have aptly pointed out, it is possible to manipulate statistics to say whatever we want. In fact, it was once said: "There are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are statistics."

Let's say I were in charge, and you could take current rankings and come up with the following set of games (higher-ranked teams usually get home field, but both conferences get six each):

2 Alabama at 1 Texas

4 Oklahoma at 5 Florida

9 Georgia at 7 Oklahoma State

8 Texas Tech at 11 LSU

Vanderbilt at 19 Kansas

16 Missouri at South Carolina

Auburn at Colorado

Nebraska at Kentucky

Arkansas at Kansas State

Baylor at Ole Miss

Tennessee at Iowa State

Texas A&M at Mississippi State

Let's all collectively agree to look at CURRENT TEAMS only. Take a deep breath, review, and discuss. I get 7-5 in favor of the Big 12, maybe a game or two either way. (The seven are Texas, Ok. State, Kansas, Mizzou, Nebraska, K-State, and Baylor.)