Bleacher Report - Articles by Mike Lieberman

Drugs And the New Age of Presumed Guilt

Mike Lieberman — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 20:52:43 -0500

I read with both interest and disappointment the recent developments in the story of Jordan Schafer, a top minor leaguer for the Atlanta Braves.

For those who are unaware, Schafer was the No. 1 prospect in the Atlanta Braves system when he was hit last year with a 50-game suspension for the suspected use of human growth hormone.

Schafer recently broke his silence on the subject, saying that he never tested positive for HGH, but adding, “I know that I deserved what I got.”

Major League Baseball reportedly levied the suspension based on “anecdotal evidence” discovered by its new Department of Investigations.

When the suspension was handed down last year, Schafer told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, “I’m stuck in a spot where I have to say 'no comment' and move on…It’s more complicated than people think.”

The case was noteworthy because it was the first suspension handed down as a result of the Department of Investigations.

Since Schafer was the Braves’ No. 1 prospect, he hadn’t tested positive, and his comments then and now have done nothing to shed any light on the circumstances. The issue is certainly interesting.

Fan comments don’t show much sympathy for the 22-year-old Schafer. The consensus seems to be that if he believes the suspension was warranted, in the same breath that he says he never failed a drug test, then he must be guilty of something.

What’s disturbing, though, is a growing trend of doubt and disbelief for any player that jumps onto the scene like Schafer did.

In 2006, he batted .240 in Class A ball and was ranked No. 27 in the Braves’ system. He then led all minor league players in hits in 2007, batting .312 and rocketing to the top of the Braves’ prospect list.

In retrospect, fan comments imply that just to make that sort of climb, Schafer must have been on something. To go from player to prospect, or prospect to stud, is to invite suspicion nowadays. To make the transition rapidly is tantamount to a guilty verdict.

That is the most shameful result of BALCO, the Mitchell Report, and the Drug Era in general. Once upon a time, fans enjoyed the story of a player who worked hard, put in the extra practice time, demonstrated a passion for the game, and became a star.

Now, the presumption is that a player who rises quickly must be doping, blinded by money, casting a black mark on the game. After those who were found to have used drugs and so many more who have been implicated, it seems anyone who achieves some measure of success is guilty by association.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not a romantic who longs for the days of fairy tales, role models, and players who spent their entire career with one team. I’m a realist; I’ve worked in baseball for the better part of 16 years, and I run a team now.

I know players have used drugs for years, and some continue to do so today. But when a player hit a home run years ago, we used to marvel at how far it went. Now, we wonder what he took to make it go so far.

And that is more damaging to the game than any news story or any broken record. We’ve allowed our collective thinking to shift to presumed guilt, and we’ve allowed success (especially rapidly achieved success) to become the equivalent of a positive drug test.

Red Sox & Rays: Keep Your Friends Close, Your Enemies Closer

Mike Lieberman — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 23:11:20 -0400

The Boston Red Sox head to Tampa Bay Friday night as the Sox and Rays open the American League Championship Series. The two teams battled often during the regular season—quite literally, with a notable brawl on June 5.

Since the Rays won 10 of the 18 regular season meetings, does that mean Tampa Bay will roll into the World Series? Or does the experience of the defending champions give Boston the edge?

Statistically speaking...

Much has been made of the pitching match-ups, with many analysts giving an edge to Tampa Bay because of the balance in the rotation and the depth of its bullpen. Don't get carried away with citing regular season stats, though; after all they include a host of players and circumstances that have no bearing on this series.

Four-man rotations are the norm in the playoffs. Tampa Bay's four started 122 games in the regular season, Boston’s started 119. So let’s toss out team figures and instead consider the following:

Tampa Bay's rotation of Shields, Kazmir, Garza, and Sonnanstine: 3.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, opponents batted .251

Boston's rotation of Matsuzaka, Beckett, Lester, and Wakefield: 3.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, opponents batted .239

It doesn't appear that Tampa Bay has a decided advantage when we look at the starting four. In fact, it could easily be argued that the Red Sox hold the edge.

Some pundits have given the Rays the nod in the series by virtue of the back end of the rotation. Andy Sonnanstine has been a solid fourth starter, while Boston is going with the aged knuckleballer, Tim Wakefield. Is that really an advantage for Tampa Bay?

Wakefield had a better ERA, better opponent’s batting average, and allows fewer baserunners. What everyone is really saying by giving the nod to Sonnanstine is that they prefer dependability to the potential that Wake's knuckler won't dance.

Speaking of being unpredictable, Matsuzaka's penchant for walks and high pitch counts has been a hot topic. Yet again, the numbers tell a different story. Dice-K allows 1.32 baserunners per nine innings, marginally higher than Sonnanstine's 1.29 and Kazmir's 1.27. Speaking of Kazmir, Matsuzaka actually goes deeper into games than Tampa Bay's ace, and Dice-K averages only one more pitch per inning than Kazmir.

So what does all this mean? It means pay less attention to stats than you have been. They can be twisted, polished, and manipulated to mean whatever you want—a fact all too clear during election season.

Other non-numerical rumblings…

The Red Sox have gone to great lengths to make the point that Beckett is 100 percent and will be the postseason pitcher of old now that the rust has been shaken off. The fact that he's not pitching Game One tells you that assertion is utterly false.

The explanation that starting Dice-K then Beckett would give them both the same amount of time between starts rings rather hollow. If Beckett were the Beckett of old, Terry Francona would rush him out the hill for the opener, no questions asked.

While Beckett may not be in top form, he also won't be the shell of himself that we saw in the ALDS. Not pitching for nearly two weeks certainly had an effect on him, and it showed. Don't expect Beckett to throw a gem, but he'll go deeper into the game than Kazmir and should pitch well enough to win.

Not too long ago, Kazmir was not only the best pitcher on the Tampa staff, he was the Tampa Bay staff. He still has the best stuff on the Rays, but like Beckett, he's not the same electric Kazmir we've seen before. He struggled in September and he does not go deep into games.

This not only taxes Tampa Bay's deep bullpen, but it could actually affect the outcome the night before he starts. Manager Joe Maddon might be reluctant to overuse his bullpen in Game One knowing that he'll probably need at least three relief innings in Game Two.

Although Tampa Bay's bullpen has been excellent, the absence of Troy Percival leaves a void that quite possibly can be exploited. In the last 25 years, only the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series without their clearly-defined closer. (Jason Isringhausen missed the 2006 playoffs with a hip injury.) Even bullpens by committee evolve to determine a de facto closer, or devolve into chaos.

Being a closer isn't just about stuff or statistics, it's about confidence and peace of mind. Winning closers have the confidence to know that every time they take the mound, the game is theirs. A strong closer gives his team the confidence to know that if they get a lead, he'll keep it. And a good closer's presence shortens the game for his opponents.

The Tampa Bay bullpen was lights-out against a Chicago White Sox team that had obviously run out of gas by the ALDS. Maddon has been masterful working through Percival's injury problems; it remains to be seen if Maddon's mastery will continue.

The final thought…

In the middle of the summer, two division rivals that didn't like each other came to blows. One was the successful Goliath to the perennial loser's David. The fight emboldened the underdog, which surged into the playoffs, where it met the very same division rival in the ALCS.

If you think I'm talking about the Red Sox and Rays, you're only half right. Think four years ago, not four months, and it was Boston and the Yankees. Alex Rodriguez kicked off a brawl that brought the Red Sox "idiots" together as a team, providing the confidence and attitude that propelled the Sox to their first World Series title in 86 years. The fight could easily be pinpointed as the moment the Sox turned the corner and became winners.

Earlier this summer, sitting in first place with two championships in four years, Boston was now the king of the mountain and the Rays were the loveable losers. When Coco Crisp charged the mound to take on James Shields, he may have ultimately done more harm than good.

The Rays came together as a team as a result of that incident, with a resolve and an attitude that they could now stand toe-to-toe with the league's best. Losers no more, Maddon convinced the young Rays that they didn't have to get pushed around by the likes of the Sox.

You can be sure that Maddon, the unconventional motivator that he is, will find a way to remind his pupils during the series. And if the Rays manage to win, the Red Sox may have to shoulder the blame for helping Tampa turn the corner, way back in June.

Red Sox vs. Angels Postmortem

Mike Lieberman — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 06:48:29 -0400

Several thoughts on the Boston Red Sox defeat of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the American League Division Series...

The Angels turned a 2-0 deficit into a 2-2 tie in the eighth inning, and you have to say that Sunday night’s marathon played a part.

Hideki Okajima and Justin Masterson—who both pitched in Sunday’s loss—were unable to put away Mark Teixeira, Vladimir Guerrero, and Torii Hunter in the eighth inning, even after going to two-strike counts on all three. Teixeira and Guerrero walked and both scored on Hunter’s two-out single to tie the game.

Much was made by the media about the Red Sox’s postseason win streak over the Angels, and Anaheim players and coaches tried hard to defuse such talk.

Yes, the Angels were able to end their skid, but not until the Sox ran the streak to a record 11 games, and even then it took a 12-inning marathon to do so. Still, it bears some consideration that many Angels players seem to have it in their heads that they simply can’t beat the Red Sox in the postseason.

The only two Angels players to make significant contributions throughout the series were Hunter and Teixeira—and neither one has been an Angel for long. Both were making their first postseason appearances in an Angel uniform, and they didn’t play like they were carrying the weight of past Anaheim playoff failures against Boston.

More evidence that the Angels have it in their heads that they can’t beat the Sox could be found in Anaheim’s fielding during the series.

From the three-run “single” by Jacoby Ellsbury in Game Three to miscues by Angel infielders and outfielders throughout the ALDS, the Angels appeared to be playing like they hoped they wouldn’t make mistakes.

That’s not the fundamentally sound Mike Scioscia ballclub that won 100 games during the season; it’s a team that was collectively thinking, “How are we going to lose yet again?”

If the “predestined to defeat” attitude appeared familiar at Fenway Park, it’s because the Red Sox suffered the same anxiety until 2004, when they faced the New York Yankees.

Game to game, series to series, year to year, Boston players seemed to be wondering which Red Sox player would make the crucial gaffe or which Yankee would be the new hero…and the fans and media took that attitude to the extreme.

It took the historic comeback from three games down in the 2004 ALCS to turn the tide, and the Red Sox haven’t looked back since.

The question is, what do the Angels have to do to break through? Or will they?

The Red Sox broke "The Curse" to win two World Series titles. The Texas Rangers of the late '90s were unable to get past those same Yankees and ultimately their window of opportunity closed.

The AL West is Anaheim’s for the taking, as long as Seattle keeps getting duped on the free-agent market and the Rangers can’t learn how to pitch.

However, as their lone World Series championship falls further and further back in the rear view mirror, will the Angels have to watch out for a reputation of playoff futility that Red Sox fans were all too familiar with for years?

Boston entered the series with two of the best clutch postseason performers in recent memory on their roster—and neither one made a significant contribution in the ALDS.

Despite his age, Josh Beckett is arguably the best playoff pitcher of his time, yet he was hurt and pitched like it in Game Three.

David Ortiz has returned from his wrist injury to the third spot in the Red Sox's order, but he is hardly the commanding presence of years past.

For the Sox to have any chance of repeating, the two are going to have to be the players fans remember, not the players that took the field in the ALDS.