Bleacher Report - Articles by Brian Nelson

BCS Bowl Predictions: Final Week

Brian Nelson — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 05:52:09 -0500

This week featured some of the most compelling and meaningful games of the season.

Oklahoma State's buckling at the Bedlam game had by far the most significant impact on final BCS destinations. The Cowboys lost 27-0 to the 6-5 Sooners. It's amazing this team was just one win away from the "exclusive" BCS.

Just like the Big 12 itself, OSU was vastly overrated.

Perhaps, the nation should have paid more attention to what last year's bowl results were telling us. The Pac-10, the SEC and the MWC are for real and the Big 12 seemed mediocre.

The big winners this week were Boise State and the SEC.

Boise State seemed to be on the outside looking in until Oklahoma State fell.

The SEC manhandled the ACC over the weekend. Florida was too much for the Seminole defense and two mid-tier SEC teams whipped both ACC division champions.

Alabama survived another close call. This week pulling it out at the last minute against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Props to the Tide and to Greg Mcelroy who looked terrific.

Although, I am very surprised the Tigers called two running plays during the one minute drill. I think the idea is to run plays that stop the clock and that actually move the chains.

The biggest loser this week aside from the ACC and Oklahoma State may have been the Big East. Pitt's loss to West Virginia takes a lot of glimmer off next week's de facto conference championship game.

In addition, if Texas were to somehow fall to Nebraska next week, it will be increasingly difficult for Cincinnati to pass up TCU in the Final BCS standings.

Either way, I see Pitt winning next week. Dion Lewis and Pitt's explosive running game will prove to much for Cincinnati's suspect run defense.

Here is how I see the BCS Bowl playing out on selection Sunday:

National Championship Game: Texas vs. Florida.

Texas does not deserve to be in this game. I know they were victims of the system last year and this will be a killer match-up, McCoy vs. Tebow, two major powerhouses. The ratings will be through the roof. Which is probably all the BCS cares about anyway.

The BCS should really take a stand on Texas' schedule. They certainly have no problem doing it with non-BCS teams. That hypocrisy will cost them one day. Big time.

Playing for the Crystal Football, Charlie Strong exposes Texas weak running game and the Gators' disciplined secondary keeps McCoy in check. Shipley returns a punt for a touchdown but the defending champions prevail, again.

Florida 27, Texas 17

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State

Ohio State continues their pathetic January play by folding to Jeremiah Masoli and Chip Kelly's brilliant offense, who always seem to play better and better as the year progresses.

Oregon 28, Ohio State 20

Orange Bowl: Pitt vs. Clemson

Dude, seriously could this game get any uglier? The Orange Bowl, with the third at-large pick, selects Pitt in order to avoid a Clemson-TCU rematch.

Four-loss Clemson advances to the Orange Bowl automatically after knocking off Paul Johnson's Yellow Jackets.

Pitt knocks off Cincinnati with their stellar run game and terrific defensive line play. They do the same to Clemson despite 250 all-purpose yards from C.J. Spiller.

Pitt 13, Clemson 10

Fiesta Bowl: Penn State vs. Boise State

By losing Texas to the National Championship Game and Oklahoma State due to deficiency, the Fiesta Bowl has the honor of selecting two at-large teams. Knowing that their last pick will inherently be a less desirable non-BCS team, the Fiesta selects Penn State over the more deserving Iowa Hawkeyes, banking on the pull of Joe Pa and the strong, traveling fan base of the Nittany Lions.

While Iowa travels well too, the Fiesta views Penn State as the higher octane offense that can keep up with the Boise State Broncos.

Despite TCU's stronger resume, the Fiesta Bowl pulls from past experience and opts for the more proven commodity in Boise State. A team that has historically traveled better than TCU.

The Big Ten's woes in BCS games continue.

Boise State 42, Penn State 31

Sugar Bowl: TCU vs. Alabama

I love the Tide and suffer from Tebow-fatigue. But even a very talented, well-coached and well-balanced like this year's Alabama won't get by Urban and Tim in the national championship semi-final.

While Mcelroy and Julio Jones looked terrific against Auburn on Friday, Alabama's passing game won't be strong enough to keep up with Tim Tebow and Riley Cooper, despite Mark Ingram hobbling to 100 plus rushing yards.

Once again, the Tide will have to "settle" for another Sugar Bowl with another inferior MWC team. Saban learns his lesson from last year and does not provide any bulletin board fodder by discounting the MWC.

But he still overlooks TCU and their capable run defense.

The Tide faithful lay claim that they would've demolished TCU had Andre Smith suited up.

TCU 31, Alabama 17

Ute Envy: Why The 2009 Holy War Is a Must-Win For BYU

Brian Nelson — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:42:22 -0500

This year, the annual Holy War between Utah and BYU will take on a whole new meaning.

It will be much more than a single football team where the winner and the loser is clearly defined by the scoreboard.

The outcome of this game will be much more telling.

Not because of the unusual parity between these two teams, (both are 8-2, both boast similar rankings) but because it would be a huge barometer for where these two programs lie.

What would it say if Utah beat BYU for the second straight season. The Utes would boast a better record and a probable top 15 ranking in a “rebuilding” year while the Cougars settle for yet another 9-3 or 8-4, good but not great season.

What hurts the most, it that it implies Utah is playing at a higher level in a year where they've had to replace eight offensive starters and three NFL defenders while starting a true freshman behind center.

Especially in a year that was supposed to be "BYU's year".

BYU returned nearly their entire defense from 2008 and most key members from a stellar 2008 offense, including a prolific RB in Harvey Unga, an accomplished senior QB in Max Hall and a likely All-American TE in Dennis Pitta.

While 2009 has been a terrific season, a loss to Utah would be seen by the Cougar faithful as one of fallen expectations and "just" another 9-3 or 8-4 finish.

After dominating the WAC year-after-year, for nearly two decades during the Lavell Edwards era, they never seemed to get the national recognition they warranted. Sure, Ty won the Heisman and the AP voted them National Champions in 1984—both phenomenal feats for a “mid-major”, but they never seemed to get the respect or the recognition they deserved.

The fans grew used to being the center of the little guy debate.

All of that changed dramatically when Urban Meyer came to town and led Utah to the incredible task of busting the BCS. The Johnny-come-lately Utes did to the BCS what most thought impossible. They beat the system designed to keep them out.

Back then, there were only four bowls, and non-BCS teams had to crack the top six in the BCS standings.

That was easier to cope with for BYU. They were in the midst of moving on from the Gary Crowton era. Utah’s fortune would only mean good things and open possibilities for the new Cougar Coach while the Utes would seemingly fall back into mediocrity after Urban left.

Then came Boise State and the exhilarating Fiesta Bowl. Hawaii, a team that clearly didn’t belong, but that made it nonetheless. And then Utah, again. Now, TCU and possibly Boise State, again.

What do these schools have in common? None were even on the college football map throughout the Reagan-Bush-Clinton administrations while BYU setting the conference on fire. Yet they’ve all been to the show while BYU hasn’t scratched the surface.

The school that wrote the storybook on the plight of the little guy in college football. The school that practically invented the West Coast offense and that germinated Norm Chow.

Last January, while the Cougars celebrated when the Utes toyed with the arrogant SEC powerhouse, there was a hint of jealousy.

Ute envy was born.

Utah, who had only been ranked twice since the 1960’s before Urban Meyer arrived, had suddenly become the face of the conference and the trailblazer against the big bad BCS.

A role that always seemed destined for the Cougars to play.

The Cougars had to do some soul searching. They had tradition, 1984, a Heisman and a plethora of WAC and MWC championship trophies that Utah could never touch.

But they also had a wardrobe of Quest for Perfection T-shirts emblematic of their lofty expectations. The shirts will probably end up some third world country one day or reprinted in crimson but the expectations were morphed into a resolve to win in 2009.

Expectations hit a meteoric peak when the Cougars took down then #3 Oklahoma in a hardly fought game. They seemed well on their way, crushing Tulane 54-3 at the Superdome. Then it all came down, faster than a Seminole Receiver in an open field.

Ute envy returned.

The Cougar’s mechanized their defenses just as you might expect.

They scoffed at the Utes. “Anyone can win a BCS Bowl every leap year, but we’re consistent year in, year out. We’re happy here. Enjoy your Sugar Bowl Trophy, we’ll see you in four years. Enjoy mediocrity”

It was denial turned into reason.

Except that, here we are now deep into 2009 and Utah stand at eye level with BYU, on the exact same page.

For Utah to be on par with the Y in a rebuilding year, is abhorrent. It’s an insult. But at it’s very core, it’s frightening and devastatingly humiliating.

Now you see why this is a must-win for BYU. The only way to cope with Ute envy for now and for the next nine months is to win on Saturday in Provo.

Or else the Cougars will be forced to Coping Mechanism Plan B—Jake Heaps.

BCS Nightmare: Three Upsets That Will Devastate the System

Brian Nelson — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 02:42:55 -0500

Every year at this time the BCS hinges its hopes that the elite teams will distinguish themselves from the pack, creating clear, crisp champions and compelling match-ups. While controversy and calamity do cause a stir and drive a lot of intrigue to the College Football and the Bowls themselves, the BCS does not need to draw further attention and scrutiny to their ridiculous system. Thus far, it's already been a rough go for the BCS. Sure-fire teams that travel well and drive ratings such as USC, Notre Dame and Miami are likely out of the picture. It's very possible only one Big 12 team will participate in a BCS Bowl while two non-BCS teams TCU and Boise State could both enter. Not only would two non-AQ teams pose a ratings and possible ticket sales nightmare for the BCS, but the possibility that both could win could give congress the ammo it needs to take down the entire system. Assuming that the BCS is entirely about money, power, greed and control (I know that's a stretch, that could never be possible) these are three highly likely upsets that will devastate the BCS.

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BCS Bowl Predictions: Pitt In, Cincy Out

Brian Nelson — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 19:17:14 -0500

After yet another ho-hum weekend of a forgettable college football season, things are about to get exciting.

All the noise about the BCS and the regular season isn't just noise anymore.

Fraught with intriguing story lines, bitter rivalries, sweet revenge and BCS-or-bust championship games, the next two weeks of college football will feature some of the most compelling and meaningful games of the season.

Finally.

Three games in particular will feature head-to-head battles for the BCS. The winner will go on to play on the big stage while the loser will likely be destined for "just-another" December Bowl.

· No. 5 Cincinnati at No. 9 Pittsburgh

· No. 16 Oregon State at No. 8 Oregon

· No. 7 Georgia Tech vs. No. 18 Clemson

We must also mention the National Championship semi-final—otherwise knows as the SEC Championship Game. Another intriguing story line. Another hate-filled, storybook SEC rivalry in the brewing.

Most likely, the winner will go on to play for the crystal football while the loser will spend the off-season explaining their loss to an MWC team in New Orleans.

Here's my take on where we stand now, and how the rest of the season will play out leading up to Selection Sunday.

What we know

Texas, Florida, Alabama and Ohio State are locks for the BCS, regardless of outcomes.

Most likely to clinch a BCS berth this week

TCU just needs a win at home this week against 1-10 New Mexico.

Who is on the bubble for an at-large?

Iowa, Penn State, Boise State, and Oklahoma State.

Who seems the least likely but still has an outside shot of getting in

· Unranked Nebraska needs to upset Texas in the Big 12 Title game

· No. 18 Clemson needs to beat Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game

· No. 19 Oregon State needs to beat rival Oregon at Autzen in the Civil War.

What other key games will likely determine BCS berths

· No. 12 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma

· Nevada at No. 6 Boise State

Who wins, who goes and who gets left out

Alabama over Florida 19-14

The Florida Gators' last-minute touchdown drive falls short as the Tide's dominant defense holds Tebow to 130 passing yards and 58 yards rushing. Mark Ingram strengthens his case for the Heisman with another clock-chewing 124-yard rushing performance.

Pitt over Cincinnati 20-17

Pittsburgh exploits the suspect Cincinnati ground defense with their explosive running game.

Oregon over Oregon State 37-31

The Ducks, who blocked the Beavers from the Rose Bowl last year, will stave off the Beavers once again despite a 140-yard rushing performance from Jacquizz Rodgers.

Georgia Tech over Clemson 28-24

Paul Johnson and the Yellow Jackets prove once again to be too much for Clemson despite their close game earlier at Georgia Tech—a game where the Jackets were aided by a phantom offensive holding call against Clemson late in the 4th quarter.

Oklahoma over Oklahoma State 24-20

Even though Zac Robinson returns to the field, Oklahoma stuns the Cowboys in Norman.

How will the BCS Bowl Selection play out?

· BCS Title Game : Texas vs. Alabama

· Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State

· Orange Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech

· Sugar Bowl: TCU vs. Florida

· Fiesta Bowl: Penn State vs. Boise State

How they got there

After losing Alabama to the BCS Title game, the Sugar Bowl will get the first replacement pick and will select the Gators.

The Fiesta Bowl will go next and replace Texas with Penn State, banking on the Joe Paterno entourage and the Nitts’ strong base of traveling fans.

The Orange Bowl goes next and will choose Pittsburgh to face ACC tie-in Georgia Tech.

The Fiesta Bowl will follow-up by selecting Boise State—a team that cut its teeth at the Fiesta Bowl and seems to travel well.

All of this leaves the Mountain West Conference’s TCU to the Sugar Bowl.

Are BCS Fans Really This Naive?

Brian Nelson — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 03:16:58 -0500

We’ve all heard them over and over again. It’s the same stuff year after year.

Blanket assumptions opined by ignorant fans from BCS teams questioning the worthiness of non-BCS teams and their quest to bust the BCS.

While the naiveté comes in different shapes and sizes, from various parts of the country, from analysts, coaches, and fans alike, what they all share in common is their blatant lack of validity, rationale, and factual support.

We all get that the BCS is rooted in tradition, fanbases, recruiting, and revenues, while those factors may be a source for a delusional sense of superiority, they don't usually correlate to performance on the field.

Remember the tune Barry Switzer sang before kickoff at last year’s Sugar Bowl? “There isn’t one player, not one player, on Utah’s team that Nick Saban would’ve recruited.”

That alone was the basis Barry used to predict that Alabama would be too much for Utah to handle. He wasn't alone.

The blogosphere along with "analysts" throughout the country were rampant with the expectation that Alabama was going to dismantle Utah, based on worthless, delusional assumptions.

So how do they explain Utah's bitch-slapping of Alabama?

They can't. They can only minimize Alabama's motivation or point to the loss of OT Andre Smith. Never mind that USC was still motivated to beat Penn State, Texas to beat Ohio State, Georgia to beat Hawaii, etc.

So goes the logic and the rationale in the attempts to discredit the non-BCS elite.

We all welcome a healthy argument, but please do so with a) logic, b) substantive reasoning, c) empirical data, or d) items that can be found on a scoreboard.

No assumptions. We already know that you think TCU couldn’t withstand the "brutal week in, week out" schedule in the SEC or the Big 12.

Or how teams like Colorado or Virginia would probably run the table in the MWC.

We’ve heard it all. What we haven’t heard is evidence to support it. Though we’ve seen plenty to the contrary. If the MWC is so weak how does:

Colorado State clobber Colorado in Boulder, but then go 0-7 in the MWC?

Last year’s Wyoming (1-7 in the MWC) travel to Knoxville and beat the Volunteers?

Last year’s UNLV team (2-6 in the MWC) go 2-0 against BCS teams (Arizona State, Iowa State)?

These are teams that have a combined 3-20 record in MWC play that somehow have managed to go 4-0 against BCS competition.

While the MWC has proven it’s on par at the bottom, it’s beating the other conferences at the top as well. In the last two seasons alone, the MWC has beaten Alabama, Boise State, Clemson, Oregon State, and Oklahoma.

Can your conference lay claim to five stronger out-of-conference victories in the last two years?

While the MWC can talk up scoreboard, the BCS will continue to throw out useless platitudes to justify their illusion of superiority.

As a result, we all have to suffer from the existence of pathetic articles such as, “Three Reasons TCU Doesn’t Belong in the BCS," which came out Monday from Tim Nash.

(Mr. Nash also focuses the article on Boise State, which I'll ignore. The BCS conferences love to denigrate the MWC by blurring it with the WAC.)

Let's break down Mr. Nash's typical, uninventive arguments for why TCU doesn't belong in the BCS.

Reason No. 1: The MWC Has Inferior Depth and Talent

Mr. Nash says, “There are currently only four schools from BCS automatic qualifiers that are currently undefeated. That's because the BCS schools play conference schedules against teams that test them for the most part, week in and week out.

"When you get an unranked Tennessee team that almost knocks off No. 2 Alabama at home, or an unranked Oklahoma almost upsetting No. 3 Texas, it tends to weed out the contenders from the pretenders.”

So let me get this straight, there are six undefeated teams left. Four come from the six BCS conferences and two from the other non-BCS conferences. This illustrates how truly weak the non-AQ conferences are?

Confused?

You should be. It makes no sense. The basis of this poorly articulated argument is that BCS teams fall and suffer from close calls more frequently because they play tougher schedules.

Never mind TCU is ranked higher than Texas in four out of the six computer polls or that TCU has more wins over ranked opponents than Texas and Florida. Or that both of Texas’s marquee wins have lost to non-BCS teams.

To support his assumption, Mr. Nash uses the Longhorns' close call with Oklahoma as proof that TCU doesn't belong.

Does he not know that Oklahoma lost to BYU, an MWC team that TCU slaughtered 38-7?

Then there’s Tennessee-Alabama. I get it. He’s trying to say that because Alabama plays talented teams like Tennessee week in and week out, they're more vulnerable to loss.

Let’s reverse his logic. Over the last two seasons, Alabama is 15-1 in the vaunted SEC. Yet somehow, they are 0-1 against the MWC in the same time frame. Alabama could play 14 games against MWC opponents and still have a worse winning percentage in the MWC than they do against SEC competition.

Go figure. Yet somehow all this strange reasoning was used to support how the MWC has inferior depth and talent. Again, a blanket assumption with worthless data to support it.

Maybe he’s asserting that over a broader sample of BCS teams, non-BCS teams would be more likely to lose.

That's a fair argument, except that 2004/2008 Utah and 2009 TCU are a combined 9-0 against BCS teams, beating:

Arizona, North Carolina, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Michigan, Oregon State, Alabama, Virginia, and Clemson.

Nine BCS opponents, nine victories. Only two games played at home. Is that a strong enough sampling?

I know the new BCS party line centers on the constant brutality of BCS conference play, but that's only a myth.

On very rare occasion, like Texas in 2008 or Miami at the beginning of this season, do you see a brutal "week in, week out" schedule. Most schedules consist of a trip to Kentucky, followed by Tennessee at home, Mississippi State on the road, and then Florida International.

That's nothing TCU couldn't handle. Trust me.

Reason No. 2: TCU Hasn’t Played a Tough Out-of-Conference Schedule

Mr Nash claims: "Supposedly, TCU beat a terrible Virginia team and then a mediocre Clemson squad. The rest of their out of conference slate, with wins over Texas State and SMU, were underwhelming."

If Clemson is mediocre, then how come they get to play in a conference championship game that could earn them an automatic BCS berth, but TCU doesn’t belong? Doesn’t that contradict the whole point?

Tell me one team, or one BCS conference, that has an out-of-conference win that is substantially more impressive than TCU at Clemson.

If Virginia is so terrible how come the Cavs alone have beaten more BCS teams than all four of Texas’s out-of-conference opponents combined?

It’s not like Florida and Alabama's OOC schedules are worth writing home about.

Reason No. 3: TCU’s Victories Against Ranked Opponents Are Suspect

Mr Nash: "TCU has beaten two ranked teams from its own conference that will play each other, leaving TCU with only one victory over a ranked opponent."

First, let’s all completely ignore the fact that Clemson is currently ranked 18th in the BCS. I know it's a lot more convenient to disregard facts that do not support BCS supremacy, but that doesn't alter the reality of the outcome.

BYU and Utah play each other this week, which is the third time this season that two ranked MWC teams play each other.

BYU is ranked No. 19 in the BCS. Utah is No. 21. Barring a complete blowout, it seems highly unlikely that the loser will fall out of the top 25, but more than likely, the winner will head towards the top 15 in the BCS.

Even if TCU's wins over these ranked teams are somehow "suspect," they have still beaten three of them. That is the same number as Alabama, one more than Florida, and two more than Texas, who has only beaten one.

That's elite company. Tell me again how TCU doesn't belong?

Mr. Nash can't. And neither can the throng of BCS fans singing the same tune. All they can do is point to baseless assumptions that bear little resemblance to on-the-field results.

The MWC is 2-0 in the BCS, with both being blowout victories. No other conference has a higher winning percentage or better average margin of victory.

By contrast, the ACC is 2-9. The Big 10 is 2-5 since 2005-05. The MWC can go 0-8 in BCS Bowls and still claim a better record than the ACC.

Amazing, perhaps Tim Nash can right articles questioning their worthiness. At least this time he'll have empirical evidence to draw from.

If TCU isn't worthy, then who is? Who deserves to get in more than the Frogs?

Oklahoma State hasn't beaten a single ranked team. Neither has Penn State. Iowa beat Penn State, but needed help from above to beat Indiana (a team that Virginia killed) and lost to Northwestern.

The truth of the matter is that the Utah's and the TCU's can be every bit as good, if not better, than the elite powerhouses.

The BCS, its fans, pundits, and coaches will do everything they can to try and cover this fact, but it's finally time to drop the baseless assumptions and stop living in denial.

Instead of trying to mold hard facts to fit a myopic view of how we think college football should be, let's just sit back, enjoy, and praise good football when we see it.

Breaking News: "Mulligan Replay" Rule Announced To Help BCS Contenders (Satire)

Brian Nelson — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 03:16:56 -0500

The NCAA, in conjunction with the BCS, has finally agreed to publicly announce the implementation of the new "Mulligan Rule."

The rule, also known as the Get Out of Jail Free card, was created at the onset of the 2009 season and has been made known only to key conference administrators, coaches, and replay booth officials up until this point.

Under the Mulligan rule, a conference will select a "favored" team prior to kickoff.

The favored team is then allowed one free replay booth overruling, or the sustaining of any call on the field per game, regardless of accuracy, so long as it meets the following criteria.

The Rules

1. Mulligans may only be used by:

A team with a top-ten ranking
A team that is currently in contention for a national championship
A team that is in first place in its conference
A team in contention for a conference's second BCS berth

2. In order to take advantage of the Mulligan Rule:

The benefiting team must be designated and confirmed prior to kickoff by the conference. The coach of the benefiting team may contact replay booth officials directly during a close call or preferably delegate the communication to the conference itself.

Note: In most cases, the conference itself will have determined the desired outcome of the call before the play is reviewed by the official (if in fact the play is reviewed at all).

Mulligans must be used in a timely fashion to ensure the appearance that a clear decision had been made without hesitation. At the same time, even if the conference has signaled their preferred call to the field official, the official must wait at least one minute prior to announcing the conference's decision minutes so as give the appearance the play was carefully reviewed.

Field officials are cautioned to use their best judgement so as not to arouse suspicion.

Replay booth officials must report to the conference the final ruling before issued to the officials on the field. This allows the conference to ensure the outcome of the call is the most conducive to the objectives of the conference.

3. The Mulligan may only be used under the following circumstances:

When overruling a call on the field, the ultimate ruling must only be used when video evidence of the original call is disputable, ambiguous, and unclear to ensure the Mulligan is not misused or wasted.

When supporting a call, there must be video evidence demonstrating that the result of the play on the field does in fact solidify the victory for the favored team.

Note: Mulligans are recommended in particular for call that directly influence the outcome of the game.

4. Opposing Coaches are not permitted to mention or even allude to the use of the Conference Mulligan:

Perpetrating coaches will be reprimanded, fined excessively and portrayed through the media as whiners and poor sports. Coaches have no right to voice any opinion regarding calls no matter what the impact may have on their personal job security or on the feelings of their players.

Coaches may not refer to Mulligan calls as unjust to players who have spent countless hours working to be the best at their craft only to have plays to have games decided by conference via replay officials.

Player's time and effort must be used to the holistic benefit of the conference, not for their own personal gain. Any reference to the contrary will result in disciplinary action. Coaches may not refer to their athletes as "humans" who seek recognition for stellar play on the field either. Only conference referees and replay booth officials may be referred to as "human."

Coaches and schools must boycott any press member who chides the conferences for "insulting the intelligence of the fan" by consistently and ironically enacting rulings that "just happen to help the team the conference needs to win in every single instance."

Dealing With the Media

Benefiting coaches may also not refer to the use of Mulligans, but are required to answer suspicious media inquiries using the following guidelines:

1. Distract the media by directing attention to the effort of the players. After all, players on the winning team have worked hard all their lives and calls like these are the fruits of their hard work.

2. Refer to a particular call that was not in the team's favor during the game, even if the call was obviously correct. If one cannot be found, get the media to empathize with your position in a befriending manner by announcing that "that's the way the ball bounces" or "we've been on the other side of close calls too."

3. If the media insists, rebuke the media by reminding them of what little monetary gain officials receive and the sacrifices made by the officials to perform this work. Also, incur sympathy by alluding to the many derogatory phone calls and threats these officials receive.

4. Explain to fans and the media that the winning team "would have won anyway." Deny that the call had any impact on momentum, field position or the final outcome of the gain.

Note: Do not refer to the time and money spent by the fans to observe a game where the conference has decided the outcome beforehand.

Fans are emotionally attached to teams. They do not see the big picture nor do they understand the money involved with a prestigious BCS Bowl. Over the long haul, it's in their best interest that the conference helps determine outcome.

5. Conference administrators will not discuss calls with the media. Instead, reassuring talk will be provided to indicate that conference matters will be handled by the appropriate people at the appropriate time.

6. If the media or fans present indisputable evidence that shows the replay booth acted in biased faith, responses must be used in the following order:

The conference shall provide a formal and believable excuse. For example, a conference can identify how poorly equipped replay booth officials are. They may add that due to the recession, such officials have been forced to use older audio equipment with 15 inch screens or smaller and no HD technology. If the media points out that that particular conference had just signed a $3 Billion TV deal, acknowledge that upgrades take time, and the situation will be revisited and refer to step two.

Inform the press that conference policies and procedures dictate that only retired field officials could be employed to man the replay booth. Inherently, these officials due to age and over-usage, suffer from poor vision.

Do not allow the media to point out that these may also be the most easily influenced because they have no career to lose.

Stats

Year to date usage of Mulligans—Florida , Alabama , Iowa , Cincinnati , and Boise State .

Rumor: Mountain West Conference To Expand To 12, Receive BCS Auto Bid

Brian Nelson — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 02:00:41 -0500

The latest rumor coming out of Washington DC is that the MWC has invited Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada to join the nine team MWC.

I will reiterate: it's just a rumor. But given the growing number of rumblings, and the pragmatism surrounding this concept, it seems to have legs. At least at face value.

The only reason the MWC would ever expand is if they were somehow guaranteed an automatic seat at the BCS table.

So if there is any truth to this rumor, it is fair to assume that there is some degree of cooperation from the BCS.

At a cursory glance, this makes perfect sense. A beefed up MWC with four football powerhouses (all of whom have reached a top five ranking within the last 12 months), a 3-0 BCS Bowl record and now a conference championship game, would more than qualify the MWC 12 as a legit BCS conference.

So the practicality of it alone lends credence to the idea. Plus, a careful evaluation of the players involved might imply something may be in the works.

ESPN itself, the network who covers the BCS Bowl games and who dominates college football coverage, has shown a highly uncharacteristic interest in the MWC of late.

In fact, this week Kirk Herbstreit, Lee Corso, and College GameDay will be headed to Fort Worth to cover Utah-TCU on Saturday. This is now the third College Game Day visit to a MWC school in the last five weeks.

Congress itself has seemed relatively quiet of late despite the fact that TCU can arguably boast an undefeated record with a tougher SOS and a stronger resume than No. 3 Texas at this point.

Especially if the Frogs top Utah on Saturday.

Validity to the Speculation: Why it Makes Sense

I've heard from fairly reliable resources that the MWC was planning to announce the addition of Boise State after the season.

Last year at this time, the folks from Boise State were particularly vocal about gaining MWC admission. That talk has been hard to find of late, which leads to the conclusion that they've been adopted into the fold.

Utah AD Chris Hill, a very well-connected and widely respected (he hired Rick Majerus, Urban Meyer, and Kyle Whittingham) figure in the MWC has been atypically open about his willingness to take the Broncos in.

It's not a common thing for an AD to come out and say that.

The Broncos would be bringing a lot to the table. Their brand recognition and reputation alone will help further the MWC cause. Nevada and Fresno State would seem an upgrade to the middle tier.

While Boise has historically been weak in other athletic departments, Nevada and Fresno State seem much more established in the other venues. Fresno State is fresh off its 2008 College World Series National Championship.

Nevada was the WAC basketball regular season champion from 2004 through 2008, reaching a top 10 ranking in 2007 and finishing the season with a 28-4 record.

The MWC would also be gaining decently sized Reno, Boise, and Fresno markets. Markets that expand MWC coverage but also boast some of the faster growing areas in the country.

The league would likely be divided geographically. My guess is they'd go from West to East.

With San Diego State, Fresno State, Nevada, UNLV, Boise State, and Wyoming making up the western component.

And Utah, BYU, Colorado State, TCU, Air Force, and New Mexico shoring up the East.

This way, teams would have logical travel partners and natural rivalries (with a few exceptions).

The East would seem football heavy while the West would be stronger on the basketball court.

The concept also makes perfect sense from a legal perspective. The MWC and its famed plight for congressional support would be satisfied. Senator Hatch can rest easy and focus on resolving other ills of society knowing that his teams would have a much greater shot at a National Championship under this model.

As we speak, this conference alone would boast two top six teams, three top 15 teams, and four ranked teams. That's more ranked teams than the SEC. Twice as many as the Big 12. And more combined BCS Bowl victories than the entire ACC since 1998. Or the Big Ten since 2004.

The conference championship at this point would feature the TCU-Utah winner against Boise State. That's as compelling, if not more, than any other conference championship outside of Atlanta.

Certainly more exciting and more meaningful than anything seen in the Big 12 Title game since 2003.

As an MWC fan, I'd support this without hesitation. I think the BCS would be reluctantly supportive but take comfort knowing the anti-trust suits would be put to bed.

Granted, it's all speculation at this point, but if this did all come to fruition, here's my first guess at the top three winners and the top three losers.

Winners

Boise State: The Broncos are on par to complete their fourth undefeated season and possibly their third without a BCS invite. This conference allows them to dramatically improve their schedule and actually have their BCS fate determined on the field.

Nevada, Fresno State: A move to a BCS conference would be a huge upgrade to both of these programs.

MWC: Without question, the MWC will enlarge its TV market by expanding into three new coverage areas that also have to be some of the fastest growing markets in the country. Not to mention the guaranteed BCS paycheck that probably wouldn't have to be split with the other non-AQ conferences anymore.

Losers

Pac-10: The Pac has been crying for national attention as the lone horse out west. Despite the Pac's phenomenal season this year, having another BCS conference out west means more competition for recruits, votes, and tv coverage.

It also dims the chance of having another second BCS berth. (The Pac-10 hasn't had a second berth since 2002.)

Plus, if USC returns to dominant form, it would be markedly easier for teams like Utah, TCU, and BYU to get to the BCS than for most of the Pac-10 teams. Perhaps some western recruits might take note.

Big Ten: While the Big Ten has shown signs of weakness of late, it has managed to sneak in a second BCS berth year in, year out. Adding a seventh BCS conference would almost assuredly take that away.

Dan Hawkins: Left a great gig at Boise State to join a BCS conference in Colorado. Hawkins and the Buffaloes have struggled while the Broncos haven't skipped a beat.

BCS Quick Fix: How To Add Meaning To the Big 12 Title Game

Brian Nelson — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:57:04 -0500

I know this proposal seems crazy, because it would never be accepted, no matter how reasonable it sounds or how easy it is to implement.

But just consider the practicality of a simple solution that would help make BCS better, more exciting and more legit without compromising school schedules, bowl alliances, the Big Six or any of that other non sense used to justify the current system.

All this proposal will do is make the system more efficient, reducing waste and adding relevance where it currently doesn’t exist.

It’s like the plus one but easily accepted. No need to get the Big Ten or the Pac Ten on board.

Instead of having another meaningless Big 12 Conference Champion Game, we implement a regional championship that matches the Big 12 South winner with the highest ranked team between the Big 12 North or the MWC.

It’s that simple.

This would allow the MWC conference champion to play for all the marbles, make the Big 12 winner earn their place in the National Championship game, and actually, for the first time in a long time, make the Big 12 Championship a meaningful and compelling matchup.

And it even makes sense geographically. The top four teams (Utah, BYU, TCU and Air Force) all fall close to or well within Big 12 boundaries.

Who wouldn’t kill to see Texas vs. TCU battle it out for a shot at the crystal? Austin vs. Dallas. Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley against Jerry Hughes and the nation’s most bruising defense.

Instead, we’ll have to settle for Texas vs. Nebraska or Kansas State.

Yawn.

Are those teams even ranked?

Wouldn’t you at least like to see Texas play SOMEBODY before they inherited a berth in the National Championship Game? Isn’t that actually fairer to the Florida/Alabama winner?

Think about it.

How sweet would Oklahoma vs. Utah have been last year?

All we did was make a simple realignment and instantly the BCS became more fair, more exhilarating and more profitable while actually adding meaning to the Big 12 Conference Championship Game.

When was the last time this game was even remotely entertaining? Or featured a game that wasn’t decided by halftime (or should I say kickoff)?

You’d have to go all the way back to 2001 when Nebraska and Colorado were both top ten teams. Those were terrific teams. But those days are long gone.

Right now, you might expect something more like 2004, when an undefeated Oklahoma team drubbed Colorado 42-3.

How thrilling.

Under the new system you would’ve seen have seen undefeated Oklahoma led by Adrian Peterson matchup against Urban Meyer, Alex Smith and the undefeated Utah Utes?

Or how about 2005, when Texas beat Colorado 70-3. Instead, fans could’ve been watching Vince Young face a 10-1 TCU, a team that had already beaten Oklahoma in Norman.

I know.

Nebraska fans would be upset. They’d dabble on and on about tradition, entitlement and week in and week out scheduling and how the system would be unfair.

That’s just typical BCS, Harvey Perlman talk.

It’s actually just the opposite. Isn’t less reasonable that a team like Utah has to go undefeated playing at Oregon, at TCU and at BYU just to get a sniff to a venue they are already 2-0 in, with two blowout victories?

While the Big 12 North champion, a division that is 1-4 overall in the BCS and hasn’t won a BCS Bowl since 1999, just has to go 5-3 or 6-2 in a mediocre conference to get the opportunity to go to the BCS.

We all know it would NEVER be considered. But doesn’t it make more sense. The BCS would have nothing to lose.

All it would do is add legitimacy, revenue and excitement to the college football while providing greater access to the “non-BCS” threats.

Utah vs. TCU: Does a Win Mean BCS for the Utes?

Brian Nelson — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 16:38:46 -0500

Utah-TCU. The biggest non-BCS game of the year for the second year in a row.

At stake, the MWC championship, a BCS berth and if TCU wins soundly and the cards fall right, a chance to play for the crystal football.

Most of the College Football Nation, especially Boise and Cincinatti area codes, will be pulling for the Utes while most of the Mountain West will be pulling for the Frogs.

With one of the most stifling and formidable defenses in the country, TCU has played it's way to a #4 BCS ranking.

The highest ever for a non-AQ team.

TCU is seemingly just this one big win away from their first ever BCS berth.

A win over #16 Utah this Saturday and the Frogs will have a stronger resume than current #3 Texas and a strong case to make the National Championship game should the Longhorns fall.

The success is no surprise.

The Frogs are very well-coached and well-balanced across the board—on both sides of the ball, running and throwing, and even special teams.

While TCU's dream season seems so palpable, they still have to get over but one small hurdle in Utah. Unfortunately, it is the same hurdle that kept TCU out of the BCS last year.

It's the same formidable Utah team that was the last to beat Alabama, the only team to dominate the Tide in the Nick Saban era, a team that is 29-2 in its last 31 games, and 7-0 in games when both teams are ranked.

More significantly, it's the same Utah team that has defeated the Frogs in three consecutive seasons and the current home of the MWC Championship trophy.

That's still Ute property. And the Utes have no intention of giving back.

Even if a loss means a better bowl berth and a nice BCS payout for Utah, the Utes have too much pride to lay down for the Frogs.

They'll leave that to BYU.

Utah still has a lot at stake in this game. Much to the comfort of Boise and Cincinnati fans, the Utes are playing their best football and are the healthiest they've been all season. Just as they did in 2007 and 2008, the Utes have continued to improve week after week.

Most significantly, the offense has looked completely revitalized in the past two weeks that QB Jordan Wynn has played under center.

Granted, Wynn is a true freshman with limited D-1 experience. So you can expect he'll make poor decisions and some costly mistakes. Especially against this stifling defense.

But he is precocious with an impressive football IQ, a pocket presence and a cannon arm that have completely opened up Utah's offense. Not only has he brought a vertical game to stretch out the defense, but his impact on the running game is noteworthy.

RB Eddie Wide III has effectively averaged 100-plus yards rushing per half with Wynn under center. Overall, Utah running backs have piled over 300 yards in the five quarters Wynn has been at the helm.

If Utah can stay balanced on offense. Mixing a strong running game with some deep passes. Utah can stay with the Frogs so long as they secure the ball and somehow keep Wynn's errors to a minimum.

Either way, it's still a win-win situation for Utah.

If TCU wins, the Frogs would be a virtual lock for the BCS. Netting the Utes and the conference members an attractive payout while drawing tremendous attention and exposure to the conference.

With TCU gone, Utah would then be in the driver's seat for the Las Vegas Bowl or possibly an arranged meeting with Boise State (if the Broncos got snubbed) in San Diego should they get past BYU.

What Would a Win Mean for Utah?

First, Utah would be in position to finish the season with a top ten ranking for the second season in a row. A terrific accomplishment for a "rebuilding" year.

Second, Utah would then be returning their QB, star RB (and possibly RB Matt Asiata) and three starting WR's returning alongside a very promising defense, for next season. Possibly beginning the season in the top 10.

With Pitt, Notre Dame and Iowa State on the schedule, the Utes could be in prime position to compete for a BCS bowl on the national stage.

In terms of bowl allotment, a victory Saturday most likely would send the Utes to the MAACO Las Vegas to face a solid, possibly ranked Pac-10 team.

Utah - BCS Bound?

Outside of a Boise State loss, Utah would need a lot of help. Despite being the one

Here are the most likely possibilities:

1-6. Six BCS berths would go out to each of the AQ conferences
7. An undefeated Boise State would qualify automatically
8. The Alabama/Florida loser will take up the first at-large

This would leave two unclaimed at-large berths remaining.
The primary candidates would likely be:

USC
Ohio State/Iowa loser
Cincinnati/Pittsburgh loser
Miami
Utah
Oklahoma State
Houston
Penn State

Of these, Utah would have the fewest losses (tied with Houston), the most notable win (at TCU) and the most forgivable loss (at Oregon). But, the Utes would also have one of the smallest fan bases and overall TV draws.

Here's a breakdown of how Utah might compare to each at large candidate.

USC: A two-loss USC gets in ahead of Utah.
Big Ten Runner up: Utah gets in over a three loss Ohio State or a two loss Iowa.
Big East Runner up: A one loss Cincinnati gets in ahead of Utah. A two loss Pittsburgh falls behind.
Miami: Ahead of the Utes in all but the Fiesta Bowl.
Oklahoma State: The Orange or the Fiesta would probably take the Cowboys over Utah.
Houston: Heisman hopeful Case Keenum may be a more compelling draw but Utah is the more attractive team.
Penn State: Less deserving, with few strong victories to compensate for two blowout lossesat home. PSU has a much better draw nationally though, so it may depend heavily on the matchup.

Ultimately, it would come down to which bowls would be making the decision. This is how I'd see it play out:

1) Sugar Bowl: SEC runner-up.

2) Fiesta Bowl: USC due to proximity and draw.

3) Orange Bowl: An undefeated Cincinnati or Miami (if Cincy loses).

4) Fiesta Bowl: Boise State

5) Sugar Bowl: Miami or Pittsburgh (if Pitt wins the Big East)

The only scenario I could see Utah getting a BCS berth is if:

1) Boise State loses or 2) Cincinatti wins the Big East and both Miami and Oklahoma State lose, presuming Oregon wins the Pac-10, Texas wins the Big 12 and Georgia Tech wins the ACC.

In that scenario, it would play out like this:

1) Sugar Bowl: SEC runner-up.

2) Fiesta Bowl: Undefeated Cincinnati

3) Orange Bowl: USC

4) Fiesta Bowl: Boise State

5) Sugar Bowl: Utah over Iowa or Penn State

Barring a number of upsets, the BCS is still a long shot for a one loss Utah, but it's still possible. I think Miami, due to its fan base, history, and proximity to both the Orange and the Sugar Bowl will consistently get in ahead of Utah.

The only bowl that might take Utah ahead of the 'Canes is the Fiesta Bowl. But the Fiesta Bowl seems destined to host Boise State. And they would not take the financial risk of hosting two non-AQ teams.

In that event, the MWC could potentially finish with two top 12 teams and no BCS berth.

By winning, Utah would do a serious disservice to the conference. At the same time, they would claim their second consecutive MWC title and set the stage for a dream run next season.

Utah Utes-New Mexico Lobos: Stepping Stone For TCU

Brian Nelson — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:10:58 -0500

Let's get the cliches and coach-speak out of the way first.

Utah should keep their eye on the ball, approach one game at a time, respect their opponent, and take care of business tomorrow against up-and-coming New Mexico.

Now that that's out of the way, let's discuss what this game really means to Utah and how they plan to use it as a stepping stone or a litmus test for the rest of the season.

Without question, great coaches like Kyle Whittingham will not overlook an opponent. But there is something to be said when a 7-1, No. 14-ranked team squares off at home against an 0-7 team lacking an identity and has made more headlines off the field than on it.

Not to mention the Utes will be looking for their 16th straight home win and 13th straight conference win.

Even though the Lobos have historically been a thorn in the side of Utah Utes, don’t expect anything but a Utah win on Saturday. That's why the Utes can afford to use a game like this to test the waters with new QB Jordan Wynn and a new offensive play-caller in Aaron Roderick.

And therein lies the advantage of being Utah. Style points have little impact on where Utah ends up this year—Ws are everything.

That has put Coach Kyle Whittingham in the midst of a very intriguing QB battle between Terrance Cain and Jordan Wynn. One, a proven commodity with a winning record; the other, a precocious freshman with tremendous upside.

The reality is either QB would steer Utah to victory tomorrow.

So why not give the freshman a shot? See what we have and if he can’t make a a very good team that much better. Especially now, in the wake of next week's monumental showdown with No. 6 TCU.

We already know the current offense is good enough to beat inferior opponents, but as we saw in Eugene, Ore., perhaps not strong enough to beat superior teams.

It makes perfect sense.

Utah has nothing to lose—certainly not a home game to New Mexico—and plenty to gain. A win over TCU could put Utah within a Boise State loss of returning to the BCS. It would also promise fresh deliveries of flowers and chocolates from Boise, Iowa City and Cincinnati zip codes.

A loss to TCU would all but clinch the Frogs’ first-ever BCS bowl berth and still leave Utah the favorite to head to Las Vegas. Or, if Boise State gets shutout of the BCS, Utah could end up with an out-of-the-box meeting with the Broncos in the Poinsettia Bowl, like TCU did last year.

Either Bowl would be a terrific get for Utah in what was supposed to be a “rebuilding” season. It would also keep Utah poised and positioned to make a run for national prominence in 2010—especially if Wynn comes close to realize his potential.

Utah Utes QB Controversy: Why Jordan Wynn Will Start

Brian Nelson — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:59:43 -0500

Heading into Saturday's game with New Mexico, Utah Coach Kyle Whittingham faces an intriguing dilemma.

Two solid QB's, one choice.

The dependable tried-and-true Junior or the precocious, strong armed Freshman.

The man who can run or the boy who can throw the long ball.

The argument for Terrance Cain is simple. With Cain under center, the Utes are 7-1, ranked 14th in the BCS and in a dead heat with TCU for the MWC championship. Not bad for a "rebuilding" year.

So why change anything?

Especially when the defense appears to be hitting stride and playing at peak performance while RB Eddie Wide III has become synonymous with 100-plus rushing yards per game. (Eddie's had five straight games with over 100 yards.)

At this point, doesn't Utah just need an efficient game manager who can distribute the ball and let others make the plays?

Yes. So why not Cain? Why not stick with a proven commodity?

After all, he has been remarkably efficient. Boasting a 140 passer rating (Brian Johnson was 149 in 2008) with 11 TDs over five picks. He has been productive, averaging over 200-plus yards per game, and he has been accurate with a 64 percent completion rate.

And he has also brought another dimension to Utah's spread offense—the run game. A dimension that really distinguished Terrance from Freshman Jordan Wynn to begin with, and perhaps the reason Cain won the job in the first place.

Cain's ability to make big plays with his legs has kept defenses honest and has helped open up short passing routes, which he has been hitting crisply. Cain burnt the Oregon Ducks with an impressive 19-yard TD run and posted a 10-plus yard run in each of his first six starts.

Therein lies the problem.

In the first six games, Cain averaged over 50 yards rushing and over four yards per carry. His last two games? 14 carries, -18 yards, and most significantly, three fumbles.

Sure, Eddie Wide may have picked up one of Terrance's fumbles and turned it into a crucial 44-yard Touchdown. But I doubt Kyle Whittingham was impressed, at least not with Cain. In fact, it probably concerned him more that one of only two big plays by the Ute offense that day happened in spite of Cain.

And Terrance knows it. While he has been fairly efficient throwing the football, his ball security problems have toyed with his confidence.

Taking away his dual threat capability and rendering him hesitant and indecisive at times, killing drives with awkward sacks or short, unproductive runs. All this, may not be his fault. It may very well be the coaches advising him not to run.

Either way, with one of Terrance's strongest assets off the table, he has become a one-dimensional QB as a horizontal passer.

A dream for opposing defenses to game plan against. Defenses have been able to crowd the box, limit the run game, and disrupt the short passing lanes all at the time, slowing the Ute offense to an anemic crawl.

With only three points on the board at Halftime against Wyoming, Kyle Whittingham went to the bullpen.

Enter Jordan Wynn.

Wynn may or may not be the answer for the rest of 2009, but he was the answer Halloween night. While Cain didn't play poorly, he was 10-of-13 for 121 after all, the Utes were not putting up points.

Wynn brought emotion, energy, and enthusiasm in a way that only a true freshman could. Like Britton Johnsen against North Carolina in the Final Four, he brought a certain spark and youthful exuberance to a sleepy offense.

In just his first three throws in Division I football, a few observations became readily apparent about Jordan Wynn.

Cannon arm
Poised and spirited temperament
Beautiful spiral
Severely limited running ability

With each series, new insights emerged.

Reads defenses well and adjusts quickly
Strong vertical game
Spreads the ball well to various receivers
Prone to freshman-like mistakes

After all was said and done, Wynn looked sharp and precocious. His touted football IQ was apparent, his arm strength and poise better than advertised, and more significantly, the Utes scored nearly every possession.

Eddie Wide came alive and ran 100-plus yards in the second half alone. Much better than his 30-plus yards he had at the half.

But was Eddie's success attributed to Wynn or did Eddie's first-half struggles make matters more difficult for Cain?

Who knows. There are a number of variables to consider.

But the key point is whether or not Utah really needs to change directions or stick with the status quo. Especially now that Utah is just a Boise State loss and a win over TCU (and BYU) away from a return to the BCS.

Is the promise of raw potential more enticing than a proven commodity like Terrance Cain?

It's hard to say. This probably isn't an easy decision for Coach Whitt, especially after his experience with the Johnson-Ratliff-Grady fiasco in 2005. And especially when the Utes have been winning.

But they've barely been winning...against inferior opponents...at home. Thanks largely to the defense, stalwart running by Eddie Wide and big plays from WR David Reed.

The fact that we're seeing Jordan Wynn for the first time is in itself very telling. It means that Utah hasn't been putting even the least of their opponents away.

Which is why Kyle Whittingam must find it so refreshing to be playing an 0-7 New Mexico. At home.The way the Defense is playing, Utah could probably expect a win from either starter.

So why not kick the tires with Wynn? Let's see what we have. Get a feel for his level of play. Does he consistently make the right reads, will he make costly mistakes, does his stronger arm open up the run game for Eddie Wide III?

Do you really need a running QB when you have four players, including Cain, who have made exceptional gains from the wildcat?

You can get a sense for many of these questions quickly, without anything to lose.

If Wynn plays poorly, you have an excellent backup in Cain who could quickly come in and care-take the Utes to victory.

If Wynn plays well, he has the potential to ignite this offense and take the team to a whole new level of play heading into a conference title game with TCU.

Sure, Wynn will take his lumps; he'll make costly mistakes, more so than Cain would. He may even single-handedly lose the TCU game. Who cares, the way the offense has been digressing, nobody is expecting to beat TCU, anyway.

But somehow I get the feeling that Jordan's football IQ, coupled with his golden arm, could prove a game-changer. Especially in his ability to spread the offense and create more space for the running backs, which given how explosive Eddie Wide III has been, should be the focus of the offense to begin with.

It's a calculated risk. Plenty to gain. Little to lose.

Someone Upstairs Looking Out for Iowa

Brian Nelson — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 03:43:30 -0500

I like Iowa. I've been in their corner for most of the season thus far. I love defensive teams who win with grit and clutch play, especially on the road.

But I have a problem with today's game. A big one. Indiana outplayed the Hawkeyes for most of this game.

Somewhere early in the fourth quarter, the tide changed. Iowa took over the momentum and Indiana lost its way, looking like the 109th rated team they really are.

When did the pendulum swing in the Hawkeyes' favor?

When the replay official overturned a DEFINITE TD catch by an Indiana receiver. Following that "call," Indiana fell apart. It took the wind from the Hoosiers' sails, and Iowa capitalized.

While Iowa does deserve credit for taking advantage, it still doesn't make the victory legitimate. Instead this will go down as further evidence of a desperate conference using officials to support a BCS propaganda.

I'm sorry Hawkeye fan, but CFB nation is not that naive. We watched two very overturnable replays in the first half stay in favor of the Hawkeyes, hinting to us that the booth will generally lean in favor of the original call on the field.

While I thought some of those calls ought to have been overturned, I thought nothing of it at the time.

But when I first saw this touchdown, I was surprised that it was even being reviewed. The official who signaled touchdown was standing right in front of the play. And the replay showed visible evidence that it was indeed a touchdown.

So what's there to overturn? It wasn't the play itself but the outcome this game was headed towards.

This was BCS motivated. There isn't a booth in the country that would reverse that call. I guarantee you, if the roles were reversed and it was an Iowa receiver making the same play, the call would've stood.

I guarantee it.

If you disagree, I respect that, but show me again how you justify reversing this call. You can't. Once again, the lure of the BC$ trumps integrity.

And it makes sense. The Big Ten could very well place Iowa in the National Championship game and sneak in a second BCS berth.

These two outcomes have three things in common:

They both provide a bounty of lucre for the Big Ten.
They both provide much needed prestige for a beleaguered conference.
And neither would happen if Indiana were to upset Iowa on Saturday.

And while I really don't mind the outcome personally, as an undefeated Iowa makes for a much more intriguing season, I just want it come fairly.

Unfortunately, this not only hurts the integrity of the BCS and college football but this will ultimately catch up to the Big Ten.

Because once again, it would mean that the Big Ten would be sneaking in a team to the BCS, that was not fit for its post.

All that would do is set up the Big Ten for yet another embarrassing BCS Bowl performance.

That is, unless they have one of their own manning the replay booth.

Boise St.: Why Oregon's Big Win Is a Double-Edged Sword

Brian Nelson — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 02:56:28 -0500

I admire the Broncos, one of the nation's most successful and most consistent programs in the BCS era.

With one of the nation's top QB's and the only defense to have stopped the explosive Oregon Ducks, the Broncos seem well on their way to their fourth undefeated regular season since 2004.

Unfortunately, it seems every time the Broncos have flirted with perfection, Utah has stood right in front.

Upstaging the Broncos, stealing the spotlight and taking the BCS payday to the bank.

The one time the Broncos have made it through, they provided one of the most exhilarating and most memorable games of all time on their way to defeating a national powerhouse. Putting a stamp of credibility and legitimacy to their program.

Despite the success, there has been no call for a second date.

Not in 2008. Not with Utah having beaten three ranked opponents including a victory over a red-hot Pac-10 team from Oregon that knocked off heavyweight USC.

Sound familiar? Ironically, while that same phrase helped bolster Utah over Boise last year, it was Oregon's victory over USC that will ultimately keep Boise out this year.

Yes, everyone remembers the shellacking Boise State put on Oregon to open the season this year. Since then, Oregon has been to the Pac-10 as Boise has been to the WAC; dominant.

Oregon's surprise success should seemingly be a boon for the Broncos. And it has been, until last night. While the Ducks garnered national credibility by pounding the Trojans, they all but locked in a berth to the Rose Bowl, leaving the Trojans as a prime candidate for an at-large BCS invite. Likely leaving the Broncos out in the cold.

These guys just can't win. Yet on the field, that's all they seem to do.

Even with Utah headed to New Orleans last year, there was still an at large berth available. Instead of a return ticket for Boise State to the Fiesta Bowl, The Ohio State Buckeyes got the call, despite losing twice to the only ranked teams they played.

We all know why. Ohio State is the bigger ticket. More fans, more ticket sales, higher TV ratings. Does anyone really blame the Fiesta Bowl? I doubt Boise State was ever given any serious consideration.

This year will be no different.

If TCU runs the table, they will claim the non-BCS bid. While TCU will not have a victory as strong as Oregon, the Frogs would have a much greater body of work and a substantially higher computer ranking coming from a better conference.

Not to mention, a head-to-head win over Boise State in last year's BCS-like Poinsettia Bowl that may stay fresh in voters' minds.

With TCU in, six automatic qualifying conference berths allotted and almost a guaranteed second berth to the SEC, only two at-large berths would remain.

Here's where it gets tricky for the Broncos.

If Penn State beats Ohio State and finishes the season with only one loss, which would seem likely at that point, the Nittany Lions would receive an at-large berth. (Assuming Iowa heads to the Rose Bowl as the Big 10 champion.)

On that same note, if Ohio State beats Penn State, they can virtually clinch an at-large berth by beating Iowa at the Horseshoe.

Which means (unless Notre Dame qualifies) the final BCS berth would come down to USC or Boise State.

Do we really have to guess which one the BCS would take?

Assuming Texas runs the table and goes to the National Championship game and Iowa and Oregon continue their collision course to the other game in Pasadena, here's how it might play out:

The Sugar Bowl will start first and take the SEC runner-up. The Fiesta will get the second pick and probably go with USC, due to proximity and draw. The Orange would go next and take the Big East champion, Cincinnati. The Fiesta would then go again at that point and take Penn State or Ohio State.

Even if it meant a rematch, the lucre of a second bout between the Buckeyes and the Trojans would be too tempting for the Fiesta Bowl to pass up.

Leaving TCU to the Sugar Bowl and Boise on the outside looking in. Again.

From what I can see, the only way Boise can make it to the BCS is if TCU falls or if Ohio State beats Penn State but loses to Iowa.

Ironically, while Boise State's perceived best friend, the Oregon Ducks ultimately may have caused harm, it's BSU's BCS busting nemesis Utah, that can become their new BFF by taking down TCU on Nov. 14.

As always seems the case nowadays, the most definitive and most meaningful games for the Boise State Broncos will take place far away from their own field of play.

BYU Cougars: The Five Most Critical "Other" Games For Week Three

Brian Nelson — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 00:30:09 -0400

The BCS is one-of-a-kind.

Where else can you find meaning, intrigue and National Championship implications from every single game, regardless of who's playing.

Only in the BCS can teams be so tied to an intricate web of contingencies, where who you've played, who your opponents have ve played and what the margin of victory was, all somehow manage to define the strength and measure of a team.

As a result, what could be happening on a field thousands of miles away may have a greater impact than the one your team is actually playing in.

For instance, BYU play SDSU the same week that Oklahoma faces Texas in the Red River Shootout. An Oklahoma win that day would most likey do more for the Cougars than a victory over the Aztecs.

Crazy. Only in the BCS.

For BYU, that's certainly not going to be the case this week.

The Cougars will have their hands full with a very athletic and very capable Florida State team coming to Provo.

The 'Noles have struggled a bit, losing their home opener to red-hot Miami and barely sneaking by FCS Jacksonville State at home.

Nonetheless, BYU can't overlook this team. FSU will come in hungry looking to make a statement and quickly turnaround their season.

BYU will undoubtedly attack FSU's suspect secondary and try to force Ponder and FSU to be more one-dimensional by stuffing the run. Which looks to be another weak spot for FSU.

The timing couldn't be better for the Cougars who have been lights out to start the season. On both sides of the ball. Throwing and running. Coaching and executing.

And this could their last chance to garner BCS credibility before heading into what looks to be an exhilarating conference battle.

While the FSU is by far the most critical game, it has also been the one most thoroughly covered by the media. So we'll take a look at the top five "other" games impacting the Cougars 2009 season.

Last week was a fairly disappointing week for the "other" critical five games.

Air Force lost in a close game at Minnesota. UNLV almost pulled the upset over a ranked Oregon State team from the Pac-10.

And Tulsa blew out the Lobos, although that's not such a bad thing if Oklahoma can beat the Golden Hurricane on Saturday.

The best news from last week's top five "others" was that Oklahoma looked like Oklahoma again. Even without Sam Bradford. A 64-0 demolition over Idaho State.

Here are this week's top five Cougar games outside of Provo.

1. Tulsa at Oklahoma

While the Cougars are a shoe-in for the BCS if they win out, that is still a big if. Any loftier aspirations will probably go only as far as the Sooners can take them.

Miami's win over Georgia Tech could prove just as big of a win for the Cougar's as any of the ones listed here.

Namely because the Hurricanes are a marquee opponent of two of BYU's marquee opponents (Florida State and Oklahoma).

And also because it will ensure both Utah and TCU advance in the polls. You gotta love the BCS. Where else does this stuff matter?

And there's a possibility the Seminoles could meet Miami once again in the ACC championship game.

Oklahoma looked terrific last week against Idaho State. BYU needs the Sooners to look as back to normal as possible.

Tulsa will be a much bigger test for OU (who wouldn't over Idaho State?) and at 2-0, Tulsa could be OU's first quality win.

A loss would be devastating to BYU and obviously to Oklahoma. But it would also be catastrophic to the Big 12. Three consecutive weeks with top Big 12 teams falling to non-BCS schools.

It's unlikely, Oklahoma doesn't lose in Norman.

2. Utah at Oregon

This is a huge game for the Mountain West Conference. Autzen is one of the most difficult venues to play in.

Luckily, the pollsters and pundits are well aware of Autzen's degree of difficulty and a win here could give the Utes a huge boost of credibility.

Personally, I think it will automatically clinch a BCS berth for the MWC as Boise State will have nothing on the MWC triumvirate.

More importantly, like FSU is for BYU, it is the last big test the Utes will face before heading into conference play.

If the Utes pull it out, they should be solid favorites for the next seven weeks of football before they head to TCU in mid-November. Just two weeks before the Holy War.

Utah will have their hands full. Oregon will come into this game hungry, looking to recover from the Nightmare in Boise debacle.

3. Utah State at Texas A&M

The battle of the Aggies could prove to be a pretty telling game for Utah State and new coach Gary Anderson.

I was impressed with the Aggies against Utah and while a little short on talent, I think they have the ability to upset A&M.

It will be a tough game and USU will have to execute very well. However, a win would be yet another upset from an unsuspecting non-BCS school over a favored Big 12 team.

4. Colorado State at Nevada

Will the real CSU please step forward.

After an impressive win over cross-state rival Colorado to open the season, Colorado State looked to have stepped up to a whole new level play for 2009.

After Colorado lost to Toledo and CSU barely eeked out a victory over FCS Weber State though, one wonders if perhaps looks were deceiving.

We'll find out soon enough when the Rams face the Wolf Pack in Reno. One of the toughest teams in the WAC. This would be a big win for Rams and thus, to the Y.

This would put CSU at 3-0 when they head into Provo next week. Not a bad follow-up for the Cougars if they manage to triumph over the 'Noles.

But, it will be a tough match overall for the Rams. Colin Kaepernick is a very talented QB, and despite their 35-0 loss to Notre Dame, this is a very good team.

5. Wyoming at Colorado

This is a fascinating game. It will be very intriguing to see if the Buffaloes can bounce back off of two disappointing losses and pull off a win at home.

Wyoming looked great for about two quarters against Texas. Particularly on the defense. They played with intensity. They didn't miss tackles and they made big plays. But it didn't last.

The offense was atrocious and the defense could only keep Colt McCoy at bay for so long. It will be interesting to see how the Cowboys play against a struggling Colorado team.

A win would be a huge get for the MWC. It will be yet another win by a (presumed) bottom tier MWC team over a BCS foe. Just like last year. It's great for the computers and it's a great talking point to MWC naysayers.

Most of all, I think it would be a great win for Dave Christensen and the program overall.

Overall, this looks to be another challenging week. I'll take Oklahoma, Utah (just a hunch), and Colorado State for a 3-2 finish. This list can just as easily go 1-4.

Utah-Oregon: Five Essentials For The Utes

Brian Nelson — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 21:04:44 -0400

I love games like this.

Two talented teams with a ton on the line. The higher ranked being tested on the road against an explosive team yearning to be make a statement.

On national TV.

This is a huge game for Utah and really their last big test prior to what figurest to be a very compelling conference title chase.

A big win on the road against a top tier Pac-10 team would significantly bolster the Utes' BCS creds, boost rankings and almost assuredly move them ahead of Boise State in the BCS buster discussion.

More importantly, it will say a lot about this Utah team and its identity following last year's Cinderella season.

On the flip side, the Ducks will be hungry. They are just one big-game win away from recovering the 2009 season and wiping the nightmare in Boise off of their minds.

Utah has a big name, a solid ranking and a stellar reputation, but thus far have appeared very average in their first two games

The Ducks may be catching the Utes at just the right time. Utah is still breaking in a new QB and several new offensive starters, a factor that could come into play in a place like Autzen Stadium.

Expect the Ducks to be aggressive defensively. Mixing things up and trying to confuse Utah's new starter QB Terrance Cain.

I would also expect Oregon to look downfield, take advantage of their remarkable speed and try to exploit Utah's two new corners, R.J. Stanford and Brandon Burton.

Both of whom struggled immensely last week at San Jose State.

1. Don't fall behind

I know that's easier said then done. Last year's miracle Utes came alive when opponents took the lead. It's easier to do that with a fifth-year senior QB, three senior WR's and an All-American kicker.

The jury's still out on how this team will respond in the face of adversity. But it's better not to find it out all. Especially in a place like Eugene, OR.

Autzen is a nasty place for a road team to play. Loud, rowdy and obnoxious.

The true strength of this Ute offense is its balance. They can run with power using Matt Asiata (I'm thinking he will play), engage with speed on the outside with Eddie Wide or run the option with Cain, who has looked phenomenal running the ball.

Thus far, the balance and consistency of the running game has helped Utah open lanes for their talented receivers. Cain has been terrific distributing the ball, and finding the mismatches, particularly on the underneath routes.

A strong running presence will keep the spread in full force and provide the open lanes Ute wideouts will need to make big plays.

Falling behind could erase that entirely. It would force Utah to be one-dimensional offensively and ultimately force Terrance Cain to win with his arm. On the road. Against a fast and hungry defense.

I have faith that Cain has the ability to do it. But it's better to avoid it altogether. Plus, he really hasn't proven he could beat defenses with the deep ball.

And if Utah becomes one-dimensional, favoring the pass, they'll have to be multi-faceted in the passing game.

Meaning Cain would have to go downfield and succeed, or the Ducks will focus on taking out the underneath game and likely force turnovers. At that point, it's game over.

Quick note: I'm betting the Ducks will be aggressive up front. Bringing the safeties in to stuff the run, pressure the new QB and stunt the short routes. From what Cain has shown, if I'm Nick Aliotti (Oregon defensive coordinator) I'll take that bet all day and leave the downfield open.

2. Stop the run

There is a reason why Blount was frustrated following the Boise State charade.

He had been stuffed all night.

Interestingly enough, once the Broncos started to shut down the run, Chip Kelly seemed overanxious to abandon it, altogether. He lost patience in his play-calling. As a result Masoli was throwing the ball much more than he should have.

Utah could do the same. As sloppily as Utah played last week, the Utes' D-line still obliterated the run, holding the Spartans to 22 yards on 22 carries.

Stopping the run and forcing offenses to become one-dimensional has proven well for Utah. Especially in big games last year.

Once Utah took a strong lead against BYU in the 2008 Holy War, it forced the Cougars to abandon the run and play come back. From there Utah destroyed BYU quarterback Max Hall, forcing four turnovers in the second half.

The Sugar Bowl was very similar. The Utes cheated a bit, stuffing the box and using the corners to man up, and shut down a team know for its dominant running game.

Ultimately forcing the Tide to be off-balance and predictable.

The Utes defense can be vulnerable against a balanced offense that keeps them guessing. Conversely, Utah's defense is lethal when they know what their opponent is going to do.

Stop the run. Force Masoli to throw or beat with you with his legs.

3. Convert in the Red Zone

Red Zone efficiency will be crucial for Utah. For a number of reasons.

One, it will be loud. When the Utes offense lines up in the zone, it will be even louder, which has false start written all over it.

In addition, Utah will either be breaking in a new kicker or sticking with Ben Vroman who may or may not be playing with total confidence. And don't expect the crowd in Eugene to help Vroman with any confidence issues.

(By the way, I'm not that down on Vroman. Yes, his field goal attempts were ugly last week. But his first two were from 50+ yards. That's tough to do, especially on the road.)

Second, the Utes have now lost two goal line stands against both Utah State and San Jose State. Two teams with supposedly inferior lines. This cannot happen against a team as hungry, as talented, and as explosive as Oregon.

I would guess that Dave Schramm (Utah offensive coordinator) will mix up the offense more on the goal line instead of relying entirely on the Asiata Formation.

4. Turnovers / Penalties

The Utes have been losing the turnover battle. Consequently, their first two games were much closer then they probably should've been.

While Cain has done a great job limiting turnovers (only one pick, and that came off a tipped ball) the Utes have had troubles holding onto the football.

Conversely, the Utes have created very few turnovers. Which is in part why the offense has put up gaudy statistics but few scores.

Especially last week. They just didn't have any short field opportunities.

The Oregon defense spent plenty of time last week dancing in the end zone, demonstrating their prowess for the big play. The Utes cannot afford to give the Oregon offense any short field opportunities.

Penalties have always plagued Utah. Maybe it's their aggressive play or maybe the BCS gods just have it out for the Crimson. Either way, Utah can ill-afford to have a repeat of last week's eleven-flag performance.

Especially in coverage. Utah got hit with four pass interference calls last week. The poor play in the secondary thus far will undoubtedly invite the Duck offense to test it by going vertical.

If the Ducks can force the secondary to commit penalties, soften up the defense and succeed with the deep ball, they'll be running the ball all day.

5. Stay put

The Ute defense knows how to make big plays. With that comes to the tendency to overplay and to miss assignments. Especially when the assignment is staying put and plugging a hole.

Jeremiah Masoli is a playmaker. He is the ultimate dual threat. He can take off and run for huge yardage at any time. He can draw back and distribute the ball or more dangerously he can fake the run, offset the secondary and find open receivers down field.

That would in-turn open up the run game for Oregon's LaMicheal James, who looks terrific. His 7.1 yards per carry are spectacular.

Utah defense cannot slow this offense if it can't pressure the QB. Masoli has to be under fire while in the pocket.

Undoubtedly he will run and make plays, especially if he can evade the pass rush, but if the Utes are disciplined and follow through with assignments, he won't have far to go.

That said, one of the best ways to keep this offense in front of them is to get the Ducks down at first contact.

A key contributor for Utah's victory over Alabama so handily why the rest of the SEC struggled with them—the Ute D had very, very few missed tackles.

While this game hasn't received nearly as much attention as it should, it should be a wild one. One of the better out-of-conference slugfests of the year.

Expect passion, speed, tough play and to be hearing from the best crowd in the country on every down.

The MWC: Just Three Big Wins Away...

Brian Nelson — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 03:26:58 -0400

Don't look now, but the Mountain West Conference is just one big weekend away from becoming the most compelling conference race in the country.

The MWC currently has three teams in the top 16. All of whom have one significant non-conference hurdle left before entering conference play.

Utah travels to Oregon on Saturday.
BYU hosts Florida State this Saturday night.
TCU visits Clemson next week.

All winnable games against reputable BCS teams.

However, the intrigue lies behind what just might happen should all three MWC teams prevail and take care of business (as they each did last year) against the rest of the conference.

It would mean the MWC could reasonably boast three top ten teams at the same time. How many conferences have accomplished that?

That's exclusive company.

That's unheard of for a "non-BCS" conference. In fact, having three ranked teams at the same time at all, is unheard of for a "non-BCS".

But hey, it would be well-deserved.

All three heads of the MWC's triumvirate have beaten non-conference top ten opponents—Boise St., Alabama, and Oklahoma—within their last three games dating back to last year's bowl season.

No other conference can say that. In fact, most BCS conferences have to go back years to find three more impressive non-conference wins.

In addition, Utah has the longest win streak in the country (16). BYU has one of the longest home winning streaks (18) and TCU boasted the top defense in the nation last year.

That's elite territory.

But the message is clear. Each of the MWC troika is one win away from sending a huge message to the dwindling throng of BCS naysayers who say the MWC doesn't belong.

They will be a combined 6-0 versus renowned BCS teams. They will have virtually clinched a BCS Bowl berth all while bringing unprecedented attention and visibility to conference play.

Not to get too far ahead here, there's still of plenty of football to be played. But the possibilities are exhilarating.

It means the ultimate MWC champion will have very likely ended two undefeated seasons, in late October or late November, and have beaten (at least) two top 10 teams.

That's a nice resume. And they are just three wins away from making that a strong possibility.

That said, could you imagine a Utah-BYU Holy War where both teams come in undefeated?

Both would definitely be top 10.

BYU would probably be playing for a National Title berth while defending a 23 game home winning streak. Their last home loss was to—Utah.

Utah would be looking for its third BCS bowl while defending a 25 game winning streak. Their last loss to—BYU.

It would have more BCS implications than the Red River shootout, more hate than Ohio State-Michigan, and more in-state division than the Iron Bowl.

—I'm serious.

Families would be torn. Households divided. (And in Utah that's like 15 people.)

And it's very possible this year. Although TCU might have something to say about that.

Which is why I am cautious not to get too far ahead. But it does help illustrate just how important the upcoming games against Florida State, Oregon and Clemson might just be.

Three big wins and brace yourself for an epic conference battle.

TCU at BYU in 10/24

Utah at TCU on 11/14

Utah at BYU on 11/28

So who would win the MWC slug-fest is half the intrigue. It's up in the air.

BYU is the current favorite. They returned the most talent. They're ranked the highest. Are playing at the highest level.

More importantly, they host both TCU and Utah. They even host overlooked No. 4 Air Force. And Provo is not kind to visitors.

However, as good as this team might be, they still had it handed to them last year by both the Utes and the Frogs. It's hard to imagine that much has changed since then.

So do the Cougars fight back with vengeance or lay down again when going gets tough.

TCU may have the best case. With one of the best defenses in the country and a ton of offensive talent returning from last year's seventh ranked team, they'll be a tough out.

Last year they embarrassed BYU and b-a-r-e-l-y lost to Utah last year, in Salt Lake.

No doubt the Frogs will be bringing it.

Utah looks the most vulnerable thus far. Lost the most talent. And has to play both TCU and BYU on the road.

It's seemingly uphill for Utah.

But they're also the reigning champ and the only MWC team to have cracked the BCS. They know what it takes to run the table—and then blowout a BCS team in the national spotlight.

Yet Utah may be right where it wants be. They are right where it was last year. Hiding under the radar while the Frogs and Cougars got all the pub.

While the Utes were winning ugly, they were winning and getting better and better each week. By the end of the season they were unbeatable.

Even for a national powerhouse from the SEC.

The MWC has intrigue and fame right at its fingertips. Three more wins and nothing would be off the table for the overlooked conference.

A National Title game, two BCS berths, a permanent place at the BCS table, maybe even College GameDay.

Utah Utes: Half Full Or Half Empty?

Brian Nelson — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 21:08:20 -0400

The Utah Utes are an enigma. No one can quite place them. Not yet.

Is this a top ten, BCS-worthy team like last year, that wins but wins ugly?

Is this deja vu, visions of 2005 when Utah fell from grace to mediocrity?

Maybe Utah is somewhere in the middle, like 2006-08 BYU. A 10-3 record, barely top 25?

Ask anyone about Utah's 24-14 win over San Jose State and you'll get an amazing variety of responses.

A coach might say a win is a win. Especially on the road.

The media might remark that Utah's ugly win wasn't nearly as sexy as USC's 56-3 throttling of the Spartans.

A BYU fan will thump his chest and point to a dominating 54-3 victory over Tulane. (Don't worry, they did this type of thumping last year after UCLA. It didn't get them far.)

Most true Utah fans would just shake their head, vocalize their frustration and express grave concern for the upcoming monster of a game in Eugene, Ore.

No worries.

This game was in no way indicative of the caliber of team Utah has. And the team that shows up at Autzen will look nothing like the passionless team that played Saturday night.

In fact, perhaps it speaks well that the Utes can win even when the defensive line (usually their strong suit) takes a day off.

The most promising sign was the efficient play and game management by Terrance Cain. Cain has done execeeded expectations thus far with his live arm, good decisions, accurate throws—especially on the underneath routes and his potent running game.

But most of all, he hasn't made many mistakes. Only one turnover.

I may be optimistic but I'm not that concerned with the Utes overall performance thus far. I know the fans and the media have been harsh.

As a consequence, Utah fell back a spot in the AP poll.

No surprise. The media likes sexy teams and hot stories. When do they ever look at the big picture.

At first I thought I was alone in the glass-is-half-full thinking. Then the coaches poll came out.

Ironically, the coaches saw something entirely different than the AP. While Utah fell back one spot in the AP poll, they took two steps forward in the coaches Poll.

What gives?

Same picture, different viewpoint.

The coaches probably didn't have time to watch the game. They probably have no idea how close this game actually was and could've been.

But it didn't matter.

The coaches will look at the story told by the box score. Which paints an entirely different picture than what you'll hear from the media (who probably didn't watch the game either).

Rushing:

Utah: 251 yards San Jose: 22 yards

Any question as to who dominated the line of scrimmage?

Total Offense:

Utah 499 yards San Jose: 264 yards

Coaches' assumption: Utah ran the ball well. They chewed up some clock. Well-balanced on offense. They gave up some passing yards but completely stuffed the run. 500 yards on offense should probably be five or six TDs.

Third-Down Efficiency

Utah: 8-for-15 San Jose: 3-of-12

Turnovers

Utah: 1 San Jose: 2

Coaches' assumption: Utah was clutch. They moved the chains. Only one turnover meant few short-field opportunities for the offense. That explains the higher yards and fewer points. Utah needs to work on their red zone efficiency and reduce turnovers.

San Jose capitalized on turnovers and maybe had a few big plays receiving, but didn't move the ball consistently.

All in all, Utah dominated but left some points on the table.

No big deal, really. The talent and the performance was there. What was missing was the urgency to seal the deal.

New Utah

The real cause for Utah's struggles is obvious, at least to me. They find themselves in a very unique situation.

They don't have a shot at the national title game. That left the building when Oregon lost to Boise State.

Yet the Utes have garnered enough street cred to get to the BCS simply by winning out. So there's really no benefit to running up the score. It's not 2004 anymore.

So why bother? What's the rush? We don't have to put on the same dog and pony show the Trojans did.

The Utes, particularly the defense, had no urgency. No passion.

They played like a team who knew they were going to win. They knew they were a vastly superior team. They were dominating the line, running the ball at will, and stuffing the run.

It was just a matter of time. When the game got urgent, so did the Utes. Scoring at will, almost. Making it look so easy, as if the points were always there.

But this is indicative of the new Utah. It's all about the "W" now. That's it. It's like playing in the NFL: The only column that matters is the W/L.

Case in point:

What would have been different had Utah beaten New Mexico 24-10 last year instead of 13-10?

Nothing. They get the Sugar Bowl invite. They play Alabama, etc. So did it really matter what that score was Saturday Night against SJSU?

No. Other than the lessons learned: Getting used to the road, finding weak spots, and improving for next week.

These are almost identical to the game played and lessons learned from Alberquerque last year. That team learned they were vulnerable when playing without purpose.

The result?

Utah went on a 4-0 rampage, beating a top-10 team in TCU, posting 63 points on SDSU, crushing a ranked BYU team and pummeling Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

That's Utah football.

I'd expect the same response from the Utes this week. This was their wake-up call. Just as New Mexico was last year and UNLV the year before.

In both cases, Utah responded hungry. Inspired.

Remember TCU, BYU and the Sugar Bowl?

When Utah needed a big play defensively, they penetrated, they scratched and clawed, they got to the QB, to the ball, to the big play.

The great wall of China couldn't have stopped the Utah pass rush.

That was hardly the case Saturday night. Quite the contrary. It was as if the Utes were counting to nine alligator or seven mississippi before rushing.

Maybe they were counting both. That's probably why they were flagged for "sending disconcerting signals to the offense."

Unfortunately, that was about all the disconcerting the defense did that night.

One sack. No turnovers. No hurries.

That's not Utah.

They've had their day off. They've been awakened.

Expect to see a beast of a defense at Autzen, and continued efficiency and consistency from Cain and the offense.

While I think the Ducks have rebounded well from the disastrous first game in Boise, the Utes will be ready to play.

BYU Cougars: The Five Most Critical "Other" Games This Week

Brian Nelson — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 14:25:12 -0400

The BCS is a crazy animal.

It has completely convoluted fan, media and coaching behavior with its intricate web of relationships, perceptions and dependencies.

Coaches run up scores to impress pollsters.

Refs are accused of altering games to secure at-large BCS berths.

Coaches fighting to hide their ballots from the public.

But the strangest of them all is the love-fest it now creates between once-bitter rivals.

Decades of rancor and animosity vanished.

Could you imagine Palestinians cheering for the Israeli soccer team?

Brown's fans hoisting Roethlisberger on their shoulders?

Boston fans popping champagne after a Yankees playoff win?

The list could go on, but the irony of the hated BCS is that it brings enemies together.

Cougars celebrating after a Utah win in the Sugar Bowl. Utes high fiving after Oklahoma succumbs to BYU.

Amazing.

This crazy BCS system and its over-emphasis on preseason pole positions, conference affiliation, strength of schedule, who have you played, who have they played, margin of victory, etc., can be overhwhelming.

And confusing.

Can't it ever just be about who is the best team?

No, for whatever reason it can't. So it's all a dog and pony show to the pollsters and the computers who decide the outcomes.

As a result, everyone you play, or are going to play, becomes part of your grooming display. They become your best friends.

It has completely altered rooting behavior.

Engendering a new kind of spectatorship that favors the rational over the emotional.

Now fans, coaches, players have a methodical preference for who they cheer for:

Favorite team
Conference member
Non-conference opponent (past and future)
Whoever's playing the guys ranked in front of us

It's strange behavior. It's why you see LSU and Auburn fans at the Alabama Sugar Bowl.

But now we know why it's so easy to get teams to shake hands after the game. They're now BFF's!

I wouldn't be surprised if coaches offered tips on future opponents, game plans, etc.

Could you picture Bronco Mendenhall to Stoops after the game:

"Bob, great game. Give my best to Sam. We sure wish him a speedy recovery. By the way, I'd run a cover-two mixed in with some corner blitzes on Colt McCoy, he seems to favor the..."

It's why the Boise State Bronco's probably wish they hadn't taunted LeGarrette Blount. Because their best opponent just lost their best player, for the year.

And the Bronco's really, really need Oregon to make some noise in the Pac-10.

It's even more critical for the non-BCS. Who need every win to count. Every opponent to look their sharpest.

That said, the Cougars began a remarkable quest last week in their surprising upset over Oklahoma.

Despite the BCSPN spin and over-emphasis on Bradford's injury, BYU looked terrific.

They forced the then-Bradford-led Sooner offense to three consecutive three-and-outs.

They slowed two of the best backs in the country in DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown.

Kariya looked solid chewing up tough yardage up the middle. Hall looked poised and in control. Pitta was clutch.

In short, the Cougars were balanced. On both sides of the ball. Running and throwing. Coaching and executing.

With a few major exceptions on special teams, the Cougars looked like an elite college team.

And they got noticed.

This week's headlines and side stories have paid plenty of praise to the Cougars, the rising MWC and the prospects of a National Title game invite.

But don't go printing off any shirts yet.

The Cougars will need a lot of help. Much of which will be out of their control and off their own field of play.

They need the Sooners, Seminoles, Frogs and Utes to be dominant, win big games and most of all, to stay ranked.

On that note, let's track the top five games each week, away from the Cougar field of play, that figure to have the greatest impact on the Y's fate.

1. Air Force at Minnesota

The Falcons looked almost too good last week as they disposed of Nicholls State 72-0.

While most Mountain West fans will just brush that off as an easy win over a 1-AA opponent, they shouldn't be too vocal, folks from Iowa or the ACC might get offended.

Minnesota looked very sound last week coming off an overtime victory at Syracuse.

Hard to tell whether Syracuse is that improved with Paulus running point or if the Gophers are just as bad.

Either way, this is a big game for the MWC. With the triumvirate of Utah, TCU and BYU looking as good as any in the country, the MWC needs solid wins over BCS from the mid-tier.

Just like Colorado State over Colorado last week.

It's the mid-tier that several pollsters including Jeff Sagarin, place particular emphasis on while evaluating the strength of a conference.

Another mid-tier win for the MWC over a mid-tier BCS opponent would send a strong message. Especially in a year where every MWC vs. BCS performance will be magnified.

Minnesota is a great match-up. First, the Gophers are beatable.

Air Force's well-executed triple option is so difficult to stop. Especially the first time you see it.

Second, Minnesota is good. Their throwback, pro-style offense is sure to do some damage in the Big Ten throughout the season.

2. Idaho State at Oklahoma/Jacksonville State at Florida State

These off-the-field games for the Cougars.

Not because of their win/loss component. We all have a good idea how that will turn out.

But it gives BYU's best out-of-conference opponents a chance to regroup from week one losses and log in easy, convincing victories

This is particularly true for Oklahoma. The Sooners need to show success with Freshman Landry Jones under center.

While many Cougar fans may have been disappointed in Miami's win over Florida State Monday night, there's still opportunity for redemption.

Oklahoma plays Miami Oct. 3 and has a chance now to beat a well-respected, ranked ACC team.

And if Florida State plays well in conference play, they could still earn a rematch against the Hurricanes in the ACC championship game.

3. USC at Ohio State

BYU doesn't have a dog in this race. Not directly.

What's important is that these two play each other. Someone has to lose. And inherently, BYU will take one step closer to the top five.

This is precious real estate. Especially at this time in the season and especially for the Cougars. Last year, the Cougars peaked out at number seven.

Even when they won, seven seemed to be their glass ceiling.

The win over Oklahoma and a win over Florida State (if BYU pulls it off) should be strong enough to breakthrough the glass.

BYU will need both to play well though.

4. Oregon State at UNLV

While this game may draw several parallels to last year's upset by UNLV over Arizona State, I'm not so optimistic this year.

Last year's upset said as much about the Sun Devils as it did for the Rebels.

The Beavers are for real. I believe them to be the most underrated team in the country.

Once Coach Riley handed the offense over to Quizz Rodgers, Oregon State went on to win seven straight Pac-10 games.

Including the famed upset over USC.

This is team is explosive so long as Quizz is healthy and in the backfield.

Even though this game will be played in Vegas, and UNLV is a much improved this year, an upset seems out of reach.

Although the impact it could have, especially with the Pac-10 seemingly wide open this year at the top, would be tremendous.

5. Tulsa at New Mexico

This is the classic win-win game for the Cougars.

A New Mexico win would be yet another great conference win over a top non-conference opponent.

A Tulsa win, and the Golden Hurricane would be 2-0, with two good road wins, heading into next week's match-up at Oklahoma.

A chance for the Cougars BFF Oklahoma to garner an impressive win.

Honorable Mention: Texas at Wyoming, TCU at Virginia and Utah at San Jose State.

While I don't expect any big upsets in any of these games, any surprising outcome could have a major impact on the Cougs.

TCU playing in Charlottesville should be on the list but after the Cavaliers lost to William & Mary, it's no longer significant.

Except that it is MWC vs. ACC.This win can be big if BYU can go on to beat Florida State and TCU can go on to beat Clemson (who looked great last night).

A 3-0 record against the ACC would be a huge statement for the MWC.

Utah Utes: Five Essentials For San Jose State

Brian Nelson — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 17:40:03 -0400

Utah got the job done on all five essentials in last week's opener against the Aggies.

Terrance Cain got plenty of reps. And played very well.

The Utes didn't overlook Utah State, they got ahead early, stayed healthy and broke in both coordinators well.

If anything, the Utes only real struggle against Utah State was the propensity to give up big plays defensively.

Looking ahead to this weekend, Utah will face another overlooked WAC opponent in San Jose State with Head Coach Dick Tomey.

Ute die-hards may remember Tomey from his vaunted Desert Swarm defense at Arizona.

The team then-Freshman Kevin Dyson beat with a one-handed snag in the end-zone to bail out Mike McCoy on fourth down and game in the 1994 Freedom Bowl.

Hopefully, tomorrow's game won't be as dramatic.

Here are five essentials Utah must accomplish for Saturday Night's big match-up in San Jose.

1. Get Acclimated to the Road

If the Utes are BCS bound again in 2009, they'll have to do it on the road.

All year. For just about every big game.

Against their toughest non-conference (Oregon) opponent and against nearly every top Mountain West (Colorado State, UNLV, TCU and BYU) conference team.

Despite what the BCS might say, this is no easy task.

This weekend's game in San Jose is the perfect venue to get acclimated to the road. Get the routine down. Get used to a hostile crowd. Get cadence.

More significantly, it will give new QB Terrance Cain experience calling plays and operating the offense outside the confines of Rice-Eccles.

Cain does come in somewhat inexperience having taken limited reps with the first team offense.

A downside to having a crowded three man QB competiton throughout the Spring and Summer.

The timing of the excursion to San Jose couldn't be better.

It lands just one week before the Utes travel to Autzen Stadium in Eugene, OR for one of their biggest and most telling matchups of the season.

Autzen is reputed as one of the toughest venues for visiting teams to play.

With all that's happened so far this year with the Oregon program, I don't see that letting up. Certainly not against Utah.

Truthfully, the Ducks are just one big win away from completely restoring their season. Utah may be the perfect target.

If the Utes thought the Big House was loud and obnoxious last year. Imagine this quote from a Michigan Daily Columnist.

"Autzen's 59,000 strong make the Big House collectively sound like a pathetic whimper. It’s louder than any place I’ve ever been, and that includes The Swamp at Florida, The Shoe in Columbus, and Death Valley at Louisiana State. Autzen Stadium is where great teams go to die."

Gulp!

not to get too caught up in next week's game, just underscoring the importance of using this game a great road prep for a season full of hostile travel.

While I wouldn't expect a daunting crowd at Spartan Stadium, the Spartans rarely get visits from teams with this high of a profile.

So the Utes should expect a solid draw.

2. No need to outpace USC

The San Jose State Spartans opened their season last week at the LA Coliseum against fourth ranked USC.

Sparta fell to the Trojans 56-3. Tough feat to follow.

While it's important for Utah to win convincingly if they can, the Utes need not bother trying to one-up or match what the Trojans accomplished last week against San Jose State.

I doubt this will be on any of the coach's minds. But it will be on the fans, some pollsters and maybe even some players.

For starters, the Trojans were home, it was opening week, and USC's two and three deep is a very talented and a very hungry group.

No surprise the Trojans never let up. Even after the game was out of reach.

It's better for Utah to focus on things they can control. First and foremost, win the game.

Don't overlook the Spartans. Strive to get ahead early. Put the game away quickly. Avoid injury, and get the two-deep some much needed game time experience, if possible.

With BYU's big win last week coupled with the burgeoning strength of the conference and the street cred the Utes have already built for themselves, they don't need to make a statement here. Just win.

3. Defense: Bend but don't break

The Ute defense has been plagued by giving up the big-play.

In many cases, players are just simply overplaying or missing assignments trying to make a big play themselves.

While Utah's defense can be lock-down phenomenal, it can be hit or miss if they try to hit home runs.

As evidenced by Utah's two safeties and 96-yard TD run given up last week to the Aggies.

The San Jose State offense can be anemic. Utah can be patient defensively and still keep the Spartans out of the end zone for most of the night.

Bend but not break.

4. Stay healthy

Koa Misi is expected to return as a starting DE for Utah. Obviously the coaching staff will be monitoring Koa closely.

They'll give Koa some reps, solid game time experience and live action but will also make sure he is kept well-rested, out of harm's way and ready to go for the rest of the season.

Misi is a vital component of this defense. However, the Utes are still in good hands without him. Nai Fotu and Christian Cox both played very well in Misi's absence last week.

Matt Asiata will have another field day against a WAC opponent.

Not taking anything away from San Jose State.

While the Spartans are well-coached and very talented defensively, I'd expect Matt to post another 100-yard game. Sparta just doesn't seem equipped to stop this beast.

Utah may find it tempting to control the ball, chew up clock and preserve a big lead by using Asiata late into the game with the "Asiata Formation".

The coaches should avoid that if possible and let Eddie Wide and Sausan Shakerin split carries. Both backs can explosive. Wide looked phenomenal last week as a change of pace back.

Shak can play the same bruising role as Asiata.

5. Get Terrance Cain more reps and more looks

Cain looked terrific in the opener. He played his role well. Didn't make mistakes. Found the mismatches and hit his targets.

He particularly performed well with the underneath targets.

Terrance looked exceptional running the ball.

The Utes might serve Cain well giving him more liberty with the deep ball.

Not only will this stretch the offense, but it will also help him become more comfortable as a multi-dimensional QB.

That seems to be the one component Cain struggled the most with last week.

I like the idea that Cain starts out against two softer opponents with terrific schematic coaches.

If all goes well, Cain will have seen some very aggressive defensive packages with the comfort of not having to make plays and carry Utah to a win.

Week Two: Top Five Games Impacting the Utes

Brian Nelson — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 03:01:02 -0400

Last week's top five turned out well for the Utes.

Despite a 2-3 record.

BYU's highly visible win over OU was epic for the conference.

The third straight victory for the MWC over a top ten, non-conference foe.

That's elite territory.

Under the radar was a huge win by Colorado State over rival Colorado, in Boulder. The Buffaloes were seven point favorites.

Again showing that mid-tier MWC is on par, if not better, than that of the other conferences.

While the Big 12 looked terrific with a stellar 10-2 start as a conference, both losses came from the MWC.

Does that make the MWC the second best conference?

Perhaps, at least they have a legit argument. Who's better?

With the current BCS system, increased attention is directed at out-of-confernce foes, strength of schedule and strength of conference.

That in mind, I'll continue to focus each week on the top five "other" games that have the greatest impact on Utah football.

Deep into out-of-conference play, week two figures to be another telling week.

(Ranked in order of victory likelihood).

1. TCU at Virginia

Utah needs: An "upset" by TCU over an ACC team.
Impact Potential: Big. The MWC needs to tally up wins against BCS opponents.
Likelihood: Guaranteed.

Coming off a stellar No. 7 ranking from 2008, TCU opens the 2009 season against a soft FCS school Virginia Cavalier team who lost last week to conference rival William & Mary.

Oh wait!

Isn't Virginia an ACC team? Isn't ACC a BCS conference? Then how did they lose to a D-1-AA school? By two touchdowns!

It must be one of those leagues where a champion goes 5-3, 9-4 on the year with one win against ranked opponent but still collects a BCS berth.

Then claim they are BCS-worthy because of the solidity from top to bottom. If parity is the narrative of the conference, losses to Richmond, William & Mary and Baylor to open the season do not reflect a sound conference from top-to-bottom.

All while ACC Commissioner John Swofford remains one of the MWC's most vocal critics.

Notwithstanding the ACC's 2-9 record in BCS Bowls.

Shh! Don't tell Mr. Swofford that the undeserving Utes have more BCS Bowl wins than his whole conference. Combined. Over a 10 year period. In nine fewer tries.

lol.

This should be an easy win over a named opponent for TCU. The first of three MWC vs. ACC match-ups.

With TCU going to Virginia and Clemson and the Seminoles traveling to Provo, the MWC is well-positioned to finish 3-0 or 2-1 against the ACC.

It will be fun to hear Mr. Swofford's spin.

Texas Christian—28
Virginia—6

2. Air Force at Minnesota

Utah Needs: Solid win by a MWC team over a solid BCS team.
Impact potential: Big.
Likelihood: Moderately high.

Air Force is one of the more underrated teams in the country. Just as Ohio State learned this last week with Navy, you really can't overlook the discipline and execution of the Armed Forces.

Especially with the triple option. The Falcons are particularly tough the first time teams play them.

The Falcons put up 72 points against Nicholls St. last week. Rushing for 474 yards. That's almost as much as SEC fans predicted the Tide would run on Utah last year. Almost.

A nice warm-up before a big game at TCF Bank stadium. The first game ever at the Gopher's new stadium. Expect a tough crowd.

While the Gophers pulled out an exciting victory over Greg Paulus and a revived Syracuse team. Minnesota also has a terrific offense.

An old school pro-style offense loaded with talent at the skill positions.

WR Eric Decker will be looking for his 28th consecutive game with a reception. He will be a tough out for the Falcons.

This is classic mid-tier MWC versus mid-tier Big Ten. For the MWC, this is a big game. Very telling.

With all the attention BYU, Utah and TCU have been getting, the only attack point BCS apologists have is the MWC's lack of depth.

In fact, Sagarin bases much of his prestigious conference rankings on the strength of conference's middle tier.

I'll admit, if AFA wins, it would be very hard for Big Ten homers to claim supremacy over the MWC.

But they will.

Shh! Don't tell them that the Utes have more BCS Bowl wins since 2005 than the entire Big Ten conference (2-5).

Air Force—27
Minnesota—24

3. Purdue at Oregon

Utah needs: Strong win for Oregon. This Ducks are on the rebound. Their opener couldn't have been uglier. This is the perfect type of game to bounce back.
Impact potential: Big. Utah really needs the Ducks to look good in this game.
Likelihood: High. Autzen is a very tough place to play. Oregon is still loaded on "O".

Let the Post-Blount era begin in Eugene. This is a huge game for the Ducks and for their season. Just a week ago, some had the Ducks ranked as high as No. 5.

Chip Kelly was dismal in his debut as a head coach. The offense was anemic. And now without LeGarrette Blount.

This is a good game for them. The Boilermakers are good but beatable.

An impressive performance and the Ducks just might sneak back into the Top 25. Always nice to fatten the Ducks before they meet Utah.

Oregon—24
Purdue—16

4. Louisville at Kentucky

Utah needs: Louisville, one of the Utes' two out-of-conference BCS opponents. This could be a nice win for the Cardinals over a rising but sometimes vulnerable SEC team.
Impact potential: Huge. Any win over an SEC team is a big get. It helps dampen the "SEC grind" peddling.
Likelihood: 40/60. In favor of the 'Cats.

Louisville has struggled to find an identity since Petrino left. They finished 5-7 last year which included an upset over No. 16 South Florida and a 24-2 loss to Kentucky. At home.

The Governor's Cup is an oft overlooked rivalry that the Cards have dominated for most of the decade. Until last year.

The Wildcats stingy defense dominated the Cardinals forcing five turnovers. Including two fumble recoveries returned for touchdowns.

Expect more of the same from the Wildcats, who finished 7-6 last year but battled tough teams tough. Losing to Alabama by three and Georgia by four.

Kentucky—17
Louisville—13

5. Oregon State at UNLV

Utah needs: Victory over ranked Pac-10 opponent.
Impact potential: Huge.
Likelihood: Low. I think the Beavers are the most underrated team in the country.

This one is almost identical to the Rebels upset of Arizona State last year. Highly ranked Pac-10 team heavily favored against a dangerous UNLV team.

This time it's in Las Vegas. But the Rebels won't have bruiser Frank Summers to chew up the clock and keep the Beaver's awesome offense on the sidelines.

Oregon State was nothing short of dominant when Quizz Rodgers was healthy last year.

The little RB that could not only beat USC but went on to lead the Beaver to six straight Pac-10 wins until he was injured before the Civil War and the Sun Bowl.

It's been said that the ASU win saved Sanford's job at UNLV last year. A win over the Beavers could do the same.

But it would do wonders for the MWC and continue to make news stories for the conference.

Unlikely.

Oregon State—41
UNLV—17

Others to watch: BYU-Tulane. Not to be outdone, the "me-too" Cougars get to play in the Superdome in New Orleans. I think the BYU faithful will enjoy Bourbon Street.

Texas at Wyoming. Tulsa at New Mexico. You never know what will happen when the Lobos or Cowboys play at home. The whole state rallies behind them.

But Texas should have no problem disposing the Pokes, even though the 'Boys have a surprisingly tough D.

The Lobos struggled in Locksley's debut against Texas A&M. Only putting up six points. Expect more of the same with Tulsa. Don't be too hard on the Lobos D.

They lost two cornerbacks in Quinn and Wright that are now playing Sundays.

Conference Rankings: Who's Number Two?

Brian Nelson — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 16:12:00 -0400

With five ranked teams and three consecutive national championships, it's easy to say the SEC is a clear cut number one.

Although they always seem to get a little extra love from the pollsters, it's important to keep the term "ranked" in proper perspective when it comes to the SEC.

Can you believe that last year Vanderbilt, Auburn and LSU all spent significant time in the top 25?

While the SEC is king of the mountain for now, who is number two?

Hint: It's not who you think.

Big 12

The smart money would be on the Big 12. Largely considered the second best, if not the best, for most of last year.

Up until they were completely exposed and gutted as an elite conference in the bowls. Which begs the question, how good is this conference really?

So far in 2009, the Big 12 looks strong. Five ranked teams. At least two in this week's new top ten. And off to a terrific start.

Ten wins and only two losses. Oklahoma State 24-10 drubbing of Georgia was impressive, taking it to one of the best defensive teams in the country.

Overall Assessment: Well-qualified candidate. But where did the two losses come from?

Pac-10

I love the Pac this year. Coming into the season, USC, Oregon State, Cal, and Oregon head up one of the most compelling championship races in the country.

While we are still very early in the season the former three look very tough. Best is a beast and should challenge for a Heisman. Barkley seems good enough to allow the NFL-caliber talent around him to succeed as usual.

Oregon State is vastly underrated. Since Jacquizz Rodger's coming out party against USC last year, the Beavers were 7-1 with a healthy Rodgers, 7-0 in the Pac.

So strong is the Pac, that they actually seem destined to receive a second BCS berth this year, their first since 2002. (That will probably be decided this Saturday at The Horseshoe.)

Overall Assessment: Well-qualified. The Oregon loss stings. And the conference still has yet to see somebody outside of USC beat a top-tier out-of-conference team.

Big Ten

The Big Ten looked rejuvenated coming into the year. Two top ten teams and a third—Iowa—crashing the rankings.

Penn State looks terrific.

Ohio State looked weak, barely eeking out a victory over Navy. A careful reminder that this conference has been brutally beaten up by the Big Boys in the Big Bowls.

Until Pryor wins a big game, I don't see them as a top ten team.

But Iowa isn't close to the same without Shonn Green and now Jewel Hampton. Barely beating a 1-AA team is not the makings of a strong contender.

The Hawkeye's will probably stay ranked but they shouldn't be.

Overall Assessment: Not a chance, even if the Buckeyes beat USC this weekend.

Big East

Not one team ranked in the top 25. While tonight's winner of the Cincy-Rutgers contest is sure to change that, it doesn't change the fact that public perception of this conference is at an all-time low.

And rightfully so, the Big East hasn't done anything remarkable or shown any signs of recovery since Rich Rod and Petrino left.

Overall Assessment: This is not even a BCS conference anymore unless it can prove it can win big without Miami, Rich Rod and Bobby Petrino.

ACC

The flagship program Virginia Tech was doused by Alabama 34-24. Not good.

But I think Georgia Tech will be great this year. Virginia Tech should still be solid, even without RB Darren Evans. Butch Davis and UNC also have an excellent program.

While the conference's claim to fame is parity and strength top-to-bottom, losses to Williams & Mary, Richmond, and Baylor end all debate.

Overall Assessment: Not close.

Before we christen the Big 12 as the next best conference. Let's look again and see if there is anyone else out there.

What if there was a conference that:

Claims three current top 20 teams.
Finished last season with two in the top ten.
Dealt the Big 12 their only two losses this weekend.
Finished last season 2-0 vs. the vaunted SEC and 6-2 against the Pac-10...including the only victory over a healthy Quizz Rogers after his blow-up game vs the Trojans.
Is now 11-6 against the top three conferences since 2008.
Had the bottom of the conference beat teams from the SEC, Big 12, and Pac-10 in 2008.
Hasn't had a conference champion lose a bowl game since 2002-03...to a team that's now in the conference.
Boasts the second best Bowl winning percentage since 2005
Has two blowout victories in their only BCS appearances.
(Not bad considering that the Big Ten is 2-5 in that time frame and the ACC is 2-9 overall.)

The New No.2

None other than the Mountain West. The new No. 2.

The triumvirate of BYU, TCU, and Utah is as strong or stronger than any other threesome outside the SEC, making for one of the most exhilarating conference title races in the country.

BYU's victory over Oklahoma is now the MWC's third straight against a non-conference top ten opponent.

Two of them top five teams from the SEC and the Big 12. All on neutral fields.

No other conference can come close to saying that.

Many have to go back and collect marquee wins over the last decade to find three better wins. And the MWC has done it in just the last bowl season and in opening week.

Of course the jury is still out for the MWC. They have to sustain this high level of play. Utah travels to Oregon, TCU travels to Virginia and Clemson, and BYU hosts Florida State, all within the next three weeks.

A 3-1 or 4-0 record is well within reach and would send a clear message to the BCS.

Granted, it's early in the season but based on last year's performance, this year's start, and the stellar head-to-head records against the best conferences, the Mountain West has climbed it's way to the upper echelon of college football conferences.

They are the new #2.

BYU Upsets Oklahoma! Quick Takes and Afterthoughts

Brian Nelson — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 01:40:51 -0400

The Mountain West just made a huge statement. Again.

So did BYU. Who now gets Florida State, Utah and TCU all at home.

The MWC has now won three straight games against non-conference top ten opponents.

All wins by three different teams on neutral fields. Can any other conference come close to saying this?

The MWC probably clinched a BCS berth tonight.

The BYU defense was spectacular. They bent but never broke.

Big win for BYU, Bronco Mendenhall, and Max Hall. All of whom have been plagued by the inability to win "the big ones."

Was the term "Big Game Bob" coined out of sarcasm?

OU's offensive line lost this game. They were flagged all day long. At crucial times. While it's never easy to replace four lineman and a tight end, that still falls on coaching.

The difference tonight? Third down efficiency: BYU: 8-17, OU: 2-11

The difference in third down efficiency? Pitta vs. Gresham. Two of the best TE's in the country. Gresham was hurt. Pitta was clutch. He was Hall's go-to on key third and fourth downs.

Play of the Game: BYU no-huddle pass to Pitta on fourth down and four. They caught OU completely off-guard. Nice to see Bronco and BYU think out-of-the-box.

Gerald McCoy is a beast. Where does that combo of speed and size come from?

I was impressed with Sam Bradford's leadership all night. Especially on the sidelines after he got hurt. He is a special player and leader. Tim Tebow should be sharing more of that spotlight.

College Football will not be the same until Bradford returns.

Guess which team had to replace four offensive linemen, lost key personnel to the NFL, had a star player hurt before the game and had a team leader injured in the first half? They both did. BCS apologists and pundits please make note of this.

They won't. Expect the BCS pundits and BCSPN to over dramatize the Bradford and Gresham injuries to justify how OU lost.

Injuries definitely had an impact, but the game was very close even with Bradford. Credit BYU for holding Bradford to only ten points in the first half. His only TD coming off a shortened field.

Besides, wasn't the big knock on the non-BCS always about their lack of depth anyway? They couldn't survive the "grind".

BYU held up fine without star RB Harvey Unga and their best tackler LB Matt Bauman.
While OU made many mistakes tonight, BYU had plenty of their own. Fumble in the red zone, fumbled punt return, two interceptions and two costly Delay of Game penalties. They were lucky to come away with a win.

Coming off the heels of the Utah-Alabama Sugar Bowl, the BCS is running out of arguments...they should stop fighting the MWC or risk losing the whole thing.

Remember the lynch-pin to Harvey Perlman's speech to congress against the MWC was they lacked Nebraska's "tough" schedule. Nebraska only played three ranked teams last year (Utah played four) and BYU has four slated for this year.

Nebraska's toughest opponent: Oklahoma.

Nice argument Perl. Oh and by the way, TCU was OU's best victory last year and that still got them in the NC Title game. Hmm!

If Utah beats Oregon and TCU beats Virginia and Clemson this year, an undefeated MWC champ should be headed to the Rose Bowl. The second week in January.

Despite a sound game and a stellar fourth quarter drive, Max Hall seemed to have that deer in the head light look for most of the game. But hey, he was clutch. Bronco Mendenhall said he let Hall call his own play the last drive. He didn't have the deer look then.

The BYU defense was terrific. With Utah, TCU, and BYU all defensive oriented coaches, is this now a defensive conference?

If so, it's still interesting to note that MWC derived offenses have helped win four out of the last five National Championships - Urban Meyer (Florida - former Utah HC), Gary Crowton (LSU - former BYU HC) and Norm Chow (USC - former BYU OC).

TCU and Utah also won big time tonight without even playing. This will bring unprecedented attention to the slug-fest between the MWC triumvirate.

However, Utes and Frogs beware, you just got served notice. Guess whoelse just figured out how to win big games?

Is their a more compelling conference battle in the country right now? College GameDay anyone?

Credit still needs to be given to OU for scheduling a tough non-conference opponent. Why can't more teams do this? It's so much better for the fans, networks, revenue, etc. They should make it a requirement for BCS citizenship.

Scheduling tough out of conference games proved very prudent for the Sooners last year. Non-conference wins over TCU and Cincinnati were the biggest difference in helping OU beat out Texas in the BCS.

Dallas Cowboys Stadium is unreal. What a venue for college football. I hope games like this become an annual tradition.

LeGarrette Blount's suspension hurts Boise State's BCS hopes, but not as much as BYU's win tonight. On that same note, BYU should wish Bradford a speedy recovery.

Quick Takes and Afterthoughts on Boise State/Oregon

Utah Utes: Quick Takes And Afterthoughts

Today's Top Five Games Impacting the Utah Utes

Brian Nelson — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 04:19:41 -0400

One of the most fascinating byproducts of the crazy BCS is the "buddy system".

With the heavy emphasis on strength of schedule and computer rankings, fellow conference members and direct out-of-conference opponents can become your most powerful allies.

Except for the three hours you beat each other on the field.

The “buddy system” seems even more prominent with non-BCS teams and their links to victories over BCS teams.

Given all the controversy the Mountain West created during the off-season, expect each BCS vs. MWC contest to be under the microscope.

Each week I’ll track the five most compelling “other” games impacting the Utes season.

One of the most significant contributing factors to the Ute’s magnificent run in 2008, was the success of the Mountain West Conference and Utah’s out-of-conference foes…well, some of them at least.

Utah benefited tremendously from Oregon State’s upset over USC and the Beavers ensuing six game win streak in the Pac-10 and final top 25 ranking.

Additionally, upsets by lower-tier Mountain West over BCS programs were instrumental in driving critical computer rankings and national perception.

This BCS “ripple effect” is what makes out-of-conference games so compelling. Their impact can last a whole season.

The good news for Utah in this regard is that Utah State looked much improved with Gary Andersen at the helm. I thought the USU offense looked poised, unpredictable and effective.

Nonetheless, the Utes can now go on and cheer for Gary and his new team throughout the season. A winning record for the Aggies is well within reach.

Boise State - 19 Oregon – 8

The downside: Boise State looked terrific. On both sides of the ball. They are now the hands-down favorite to bust the BCS.

Any Mountain West hopeful will have to beat out the orange and blue. All three have the schedule and the opportunities to do it.

Boise really needs help from the WAC and from Oregon.

Oregon looked terrible on both sides of the ball but especially on the sidelines. I could tell very quickly Chip Kelly (Oregon Head Coach) has never been a head coach before.

If the Ducks show up and beat Utah, it will reflect poorly on the Utes and will be hard for Utah to pass up Boise in the BCS rankings.

Perhaps Boise State hurt their own cause by taunting Blount.

The Upside: LeGarrette Blount’s suspension seems to benefit Utah.

Masoli and the Oregon looked very vulnerable when one-dimensional.

The Ute defense is lethal when they know what the opponent is going to do. If Utah beats Oregon, it will virtually end Boise State’s BCS hopes.

And it will make the TCU-Utah game explode with BCS implications, assuming they both come in with one loss or less.

(I’d mention BYU here too, but the Cougars have to prove they can beat a top quality team first.)

The Utes five most impactful games for this weekend include:

BYU vs. Oklahoma - Arlington, TX

Utah needs: BYU victory (eek!) or at least a competitive game.

Impact potential: Astronomical

Likelihood: Low, but higher than most think.

Rooting for BYU is like nails to the chalkboard for most Ute fans. To each their own. I’m with Coach Whitt on this, a big win for BYU is a win for the conference.

It will almost guarantee a one-loss or undefeated MWC team in the BCS. It will build big-time credibility for the MWC and their bid for BCS inclusion.

Cheering for BYU will show that Utah fans have turned a corner and matured as a fan base. More than anything though, it’s like fattening a chicken before you roast it.

Let the Cougars wreak havoc on the Sooners and the Seminoles all day, it just makes Utah look better when they take the Y down.

It will especially be a slap in the face to Harvey Perlman—the Nebraska Chancellor who scoffed at Utah’s schedule last year (as if NU really has a leg to stand on).

(Does Harvey think the 2008 Utes are afraid to play Nebraska’s spooky 2008 schedule? Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, Colorado, New Mexico State, San Jose State and Western Michigan.)

Oklahoma is vulnerable. This is not out of reach. The Sooner’s replace four offensive linemen and lose TE Jermaine Gresham.

Sam Bradford and OU’s sensational running backs Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray will have to prove a lot on their own.

BYU can make a statement just by keeping it close, but the Cougs just can’t ever seem to play up to teams that are more talented.

The Cougars can out-execute and beat up on inferior teams all day long, but I don’t see them making the necessary adjustments and out-of-the-box moves to win.

Although it has been reported that Urban Meyer called Bronco Mendenhall to offer his advice.

San Jose State at USC

Utah needs: SJSU victory over the 4th ranked Trojans.

Impact Potential: Huge.

Likelihood: Very low, but higher than most think.

I’m not sold on Barkley. I watched his final high school game against Tesoro form last November. Matt was 12-for-33 with four interceptions in the loss.

His arm looked terrific. His poise was off the charts. However, his performance poor.

But if that’s how Matt plays when faced against a tougher defense it’s not get any easier against Dick Tomey.

Granted, it’s unfair to judge a player or his potential off of one game. But it was his last game and it was only nine months ago.

And in college football, all it takes is one bad game and USC has a disappointing year.

The Trojans are riddled with injuries, especially up front and wide receiver

If the Trojans weren’t so loaded in the backfield I might be calling for a long-shot upset. It will be closer than many think thought.

San Diego State at UCLA

Utah needs: SDSU victory over a solid Pac-10 team.

Impact potential: Big.

Likelihood: Medium, again, higher than most think.

I think San Diego State will surprise a lot of people. I also think the same about UCLA. Both teams did a great job filling voids, improving talent and building on last season's weaknesses.

It will create some surprise but the biggest challenge for the Bruins will be breaking in a new QB and several new O-linemen against Rocky Long’s stifling 3-3-5 defense.

Colorado State at Colorado

Utah needs: Colorado State victory over mid-tier Big Twelve.

Impact potential: Medium.

Likelihood: Low.

Any win over a BCS team for mid or lower tier Mountain West teams is a huge get for the conference.

Colorado State has struggled miserably to find a QB and I just don't the Rams pulling it off this year in Boulder.

New Mexico at Texas A&M

Utah needs: New Mexico victory over mid-tier Big Twelve.

Impact potential: Medium.

Likelihood: Low.

Again, any win over a BCS team for mid or lower tier Mountain West teams is a huge get for the conference. Mike Locksley begins his era at New Mexico with his no huddle spread offense.

I like Donovan Porterie. He will be terrific in this system, but New Mexico loses a ton of NFL talent that will be very hard to replace. (RB Rodney Ferguson and cornerbacks DeAndre Wright and Glover Quinn).

Only in the BCS: How Boise State Hurt Itself

Brian Nelson — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 19:36:46 -0400

LeGarrette Blount was out of line last night. Not surprisingly, he was suspended for the rest of the year.

All that talent, all that offseason work, years of stellar production and NFL dreams thrown away. So abruptly.

What a tragedy.

I know he was frustrated. I can't pretend to know what led up to LeGarrette's outrage. His behavior was unacceptable.

But LeGarrette was prompted. He was egged on by the taunt and ridicule of the winning team.

That's exactly how the Broncos shot themselves in the foot despite an otherwise perfect night for the blue and orange.

Boise State caused this with their childish, small man complex of rubbing the outcome of the game in Blount's face. Taunting is for middle school. Even then, most kids have grown past it.

How LeGarrette responded is deplorable. But he's already set to pay a steep price. So will his team.

And guess what? So do the Broncos.

In fact, no one outside of Oregon is hurt more by this morning's suspension than Boise State themselves.

Why? Because in the current BCS past opponents are your best friends.

That's right Oregon-Boise State: BFFs!!!

The Broncos' ticket to the BCS train was always going to be the Oregon Duck Express led by the balanced one-two punch of dual-threat Jeremiah Masoli and LeGarrette Blount.

Not any more.

In the crazy BCS system that over-emphasizes the regular season, the strength of your conference, and overall strength of schedule, the fate of many college football teams are sealed and bound by their opponent's success or failure.

It's why smart, goal-oriented teams in the BCS era would be wiser to embrace their opponents after the game. Giving them tips on improvement, post-mortem analysis, insights to future opponents, facebook invites, and twitter updates.

It should be a love fest.

It’s given rise to a strange new paradigm of gamesmanship and spectatorship that has competely changed the rooting behavior of coaches, players, and fans.

A new list of rooting priorities.

(And it happens to come right out of the SEC fan playbook, who recognized long ago that the perceived strength of the conference as a whole can carry a host of benefits.)

1. Team
2. Conference
3. Out-of-Conference Opponents (although for the SEC this is usually FCS)
4. Whoever’s playing the guys ranked in front of us
5. Whoever’s playing the rival

In the end, it's especially true for non-BCS teams. Teams who really have to shine at every opportunity to garner any national visibility or credibility they can muster.

The orange and blue delivered big time last night. On national television.

They were phenomenal. Kellen Moore looked very composed and unstoppable in the pocket. The offense was well-balanced between run and pass. The O-line gave Moore all the time he needed to make his progressions.

The defense looked impenetrable.

Unfortunately, that wasn't the headline this morning. It was all about Blount and his sucker punch. Not the punch in the mouth the Broncos D just laid on a pretty explosive Oregon offense.

(Or was Oklahoma State's defense really that bad in last year's Holiday Bowl?)

That hurts the Broncos. But what really hurts is the loss of Blount for the season. Blount was one of the top backs in the country, often considered a dark-horse for the Heisman. He was a cornerstone of the Duck offense.

Now he's gone for the year. And as we saw yesterday, Oregon is not good when they are one-dimensional on offense. This will devastate the Ducks' season (if it wasn't already by Chip Kelly's dismal coaching performance last night).

The worse the Ducks look, the more down-to-earth it makes the Broncos look. Without a victory over another top-25 team, it will be hard to stay relevant in the rankings and on the computers. Not enough at least to garner a BCS berth.

Especially with three Mountain West teams in the polls. After Boise's convincing victory over No. 16 Oregon Thursday, the Broncos should have no problem staying well ahead of the MWC triumvirate.

At least for the short term.

But the win over Oregon is all the Broncos will have to cling to for the rest of the season. Just like they did last year.

It got them far, but not nearly far enough. Undefeated Utah passed them up, and Boise State's terrific season was largely ignored. Had Utah lost to TCU, it would have been one-loss TCU instead of undefeated Boise State.

And that will almost certainly happen again if the Broncos' BFF lose to Utah on September 18.

A Utah victory over Oregon at Autzen will trump anything Boise State can do all year and virtually clinch a BCS berth for a one-loss or an undefeated MWC champion.

Blount or not, Autzen is not an easy place to play and Utah will have a LOT to overcome, but the Broncos just made it a lot easier for the Utes.

So the Broncos can taunt all they want, but from here out, nobody will care or listen when it's coming from the Humanitarian Bowl.

Utah Utes: Quick Takes And Afterthoughts

Brian Nelson — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 16:31:44 -0400

Some quick takes and afterthoughts:

Utah extended their winning streak to fifteen: The longest in the country.
Utah State played well. Didn't seem to make too many mistakes and look very much improved from last year. Yet it never really seemed like they were in this game.
David Reed will be an All-MWC Wide Receiver with over 1,000 reception yards this year.
Matt Asiata will make a run for Mountain West MVP honors. He will exceed 1,000 yards rushing.
Terrance Cain's ability to connect on the short passes early really opened things up for Asiata. Which is why Louks was never the guy.
This game shed some light on the three biggest questions for Utah coming into the season: QB, the kicking game and the two new cornerbacks.
QB: JUCO transfer Terrance Cain looked good. He played his role. He distributed the ball, he let the others make plays and he avoided costly turnovers.
Terrance was terrific on the short passing game and looked very potent running the ball.
Cain did struggle however, to connect, or even come close to connecting, on the deep ball
Cain also made very few progressions and showed a tendency to stare down his primary receiver. Although you can't really blame him when you have a guy like WR David Reed—10 receptions, 172 yards.
Cain also struggled in the second half after the defense took away the underneath routes.
Overall, Terrance played his role as care taker and game manager very well.
Kicking: Ben Vroman was rock solid on kickoffs, PAT's and a nice 44- yard field goal. Given his strong performance in camp, I'd say the kicking game is no longer a concern.
Overall, special teams looked pretty strong other than a fumbled punt by Luke Matthews.
Corners: The corners played fairly well. They were a non-factor. Which is good. Although the corner play was overshadowed by a surprisingly mediocre day for the Ute defense.
Utah's inability to pressure the QB and force turnovers was surprising. I thought the Utes would be much more dominant on the defensive line. Perhaps they miss DE Koa Misi much more than expected. Either way, credit a very sound offensive line play by Utah State.
The Utah defense did bat away a ton of passes. Yet only one pick. Interesting to note, one of Utah's greatest weaknesses from last year, dropped interceptions. It has also plagued them all summer in camp. That says a lot of about a team when that's a leading weakness.
Again, like last year, the Utes seemed prone to giving up the big play. Many of which can be tabbed to over playing. The Utes nabbed two safeties but gave up a 96-yard TD run. There's always a trade-off.
Number two running back Eddie Wide looked great. Terrific change of pace runner.
I was surprised we didn't see more from Shaky Smithson, Sausan Shakerin, or David Kruger.
Oregon looked terrible against Boise State. That doesn't help Utah much. Although a Ute victory over Oregon would crush Boise State's BCS hopes.

Quick Takes and Afterthoughts on Boise State/Oregon

Brian Nelson — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 03:04:47 -0400

Hard to tell whether the Broncos were that good or if the Ducks were really that bad.
I could tell Chip Kelly has never been a head coach before. Poor play-calling. Bad decisions. No adjustments.
A hand-off from the shotgun in the end zone? And again on 4th and 2?
Credit Oregon for scheduling such a tough out-of-conference match-up. Very few teams would be willing to travel to Boise. Especially to open the season. Also credit them for scheduling Purdue and Utah as well.
The Boise defense looked terrific. The offense looked awkwardly committed to running the ball and maintaining balance. It worked.
Boise State QB Kellen Moore was poised, made great decisions, followed his progressions and seemed unstoppable from the pocket.
I couldn't believe how little pressure the Ducks put on Moore.
Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli looked aggressive at the wrong times and poised at the wrong times. Overall, he was terribly ineffective. Credit the Boise State D for some of that.
The Bronco coverage was sound but their ability to stop Blount made the Ducks very one-dimensional.
Blount will get suspended. He embarrassed the program and his teammates. He is too talented to let this one incident ruin his year. But it will.
Given all that happened in last year's game in Eugene, OR, I thought Boise State was out of line for taunting. There's no place for that.
Ironically, the whole incident hurts the Broncos. The way the crazy BCS is set up, the Broncos really need the Ducks to play well, beat Utah and contend for the Pac-10 championship. Oregon losing Blount for any period of time doesn't help.
I would hate to see Oregon struggle in their out-of-conference games and then come roaring back and be a force in the Pac-10. Like Oregon State last year.
Boise State is now the hands down favorite to bust the BCS.
Although BSU should have requested that ESPN not display their schedule during the game. Aside from the snapped fumble, it was their most embarrassing moment all night. They really need Nevada to beat the Irish.
That said, if Utah beats Oregon at Autzen, the Mountain West will virtually clinch a BCS berth provided their champion has one loss or less. The MWC may even sneak in a two-loss team if Boise State ever loses and the Big East champion is ranked below No. 17.
Going back to Utah-Alabama, we now have two games in a row with a non-BCS team dominating a top-ranked BCS team on both sides of the ball and on both lines of scrimmage. Parity anyone?
Expect the Mountain West to announce the addition of Boise State this February in effort to appeal to the BCS. When Boise State joins the Mountain West it will be perceived as the best football conference in the West. At least toward the top.

Week One: Big Game Predictions

Brian Nelson — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 14:17:12 -0400

Following months of desperation and long-suffering, the much anticipated 2009 College Football season is finally upon us. Opening week features some of the most compelling out-of-conference match-ups While these games may provide answers and insights to some of the most hotly debated topics, they are each wrought with BCS, conference pride and national title implications. Giving fans and pundits talking points for the rest of the year. Here are my predictions on the top 5 games this week.

Begin Slideshow

Utah vs. Utah State: Five Essentials for the Utes Opener

Brian Nelson — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 15:00:41 -0400

1. Don't Overlook the Opponent.

Part of what made the 2004 and 2008 Utah teams so special was their ability to take care of business week after week.

Rarely overlooking opponents. Customizing game plans to exploit each opponent's weaknesses.

2009 should be no different.

This game has all the makings of a trap. While Utah State has struggled recently, this team is talented, well-coached and much better than most people think. USU QB Diondre Borel is a potent dual-threat with big play making capability.

At the same time, Utah will be breaking in a new QB while battling health and depth concerns on the offensive line.

USU's new Head Coach, former Utah Defensive Coordinator Gary Andersen, is a brilliant and aggressive defensive mind.

The Utes should expect Andersen and the Aggies to pressure an inexperienced signal caller and a make a line shift up front.

If the new Ute QB gets flustered, it's easy to see how a few costly turnovers can help the Aggies stay in the game and keep it close.

Fortunately for Utah, the game is at home. Utah is a heavy favorite and boasts several mismatches on both sides of the ball.

If Utah can execute their game plan, contain the USU offense and keep the new QB poised and composed, the Utes should take care of business early and use this game as a stepping stone to build upon for the rest of the season.

2. Get Ahead Early.

Utah is lethal as a defense when they know what the opponent is going to do. An early lead may force the Aggies to throw the ball and be off-balanced on offense.

By making the Aggies more one-dimensional, DC Kalani Sitake can be more aggressive with his coverage schemes and blitz packages.

This will put additional pressure on the QB in hopes of forcing turnovers and costly mistakes. Similar to last year's games against BYU and Alabama.

It will also provide critical coverage opportunities for Utah's two new corners Brandon Burton and R.J. Stanford. The Ute's only defensive position with limited starting experience.

3. Reps. Reps. Reps. Get the New QB Comfortable Running the Offense.

The key for Utah will be to establish the run early. USU will have a difficult time slowing RB Matt Asiata. This should open up passing lanes and help build the new QB's confidence with several short and quick passes to wide open receivers.

This is especially critical if the Aggies plan to pressure the QB.

Even if the Utes manage to take a big lead against the Aggies, Utah needs to give the newly crowned starter as many reps as possible.

Get him familiar with the with the playbook against a live defense in a limited pressure situation.

4. Get Healthy.

Starting Right Guard Walter Watts (probable) and Left Guard Caleb Schlauderhauff (questionable) have been banged up this last week of practice.

As a result the coaching staff has been doing a lot of shuffling to fill the void in practice.

With a new QB and a power back in Matt Asiata, a strong Offensive line will be crucial going forward. Utah can ill-afford depth issues up front.

If the Utes can break the game open early, they can get these starters resting on the side line while giving inexperienced backups live playing time.

In addition, DE Koa Misi, arguably the Ute's best returning defender, has been on the shelf suffering from back spasms. Misi is listed as questionable for Thursday's game.

While Utah will likely get by Thursday's game without Misi, they'll need him back and ready to play by the time they travel to Eugene, OR to battle the 14th ranked Ducks at Autzen Stadium.

5. Break in the New Coordinators.

The downside to last year's terrific performance is having to deal with the loss of two coordinators.

While most Ute fans aren't losing sleep over Offensive Coordinator Andy Ludwig's departure, it is always a leap of faith when you break in a new play caller.

Even if he's been with the system as long as Dave Schramm.

While Coach Schramm has undoubtedly added some new wrinkles to the Ute offense this year, I would expect Thursday's play calling to be fairly vanilla.

Focusing more on execution, personnel and familiarization rather than chicanery.

Coach Sitake is in a similar situation. While Coach Whittingham will always be heavily involved with the defense and DC Kalani Sitake is very familiar with the system, it doesn't hurt to get some real time play calling experience.

Utah Utes: Five Bold Predictions You Can Bank On

Brian Nelson — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 18:55:18 -0400

1. Junior QB Terrance Cain will be named the starter come Sept. 3.

With a crippling defense and a stable of talent at the other skilled positions, Utah will look for a competent game manager at QB who won't lose games.

Ultimately, coach Kyle Whittingham will opt for the QB who makes the fewest mistakes and best avoids costly turnovers.

No one fits the bill better than Juco transfer Terrance Cain.

The 2008 NJCAA Offensive Player of the Year tossed 51 TDs and only 22 INTs while completing over 70 percent of his passes in his prolific career at Blinn Community College.

While a drop off should be expected, Cain has at least demonstrated the efficiency Utah needs to move the chains, let the others around him make the big plays and keep the defense well-rested on the sidelines.

2. If Utah beats Oregon, a Mountain West team will receive a BCS berth.

With four non-BCS teams in the coaches' top 25 preseason poll, the non-BCS throng seems destined to bust the BCS again in 2009-10.

Of the four, Boise State has the highest preseason ranking and boasts the easiest schedule. But their BCS fate relies entirely on what happens in the Mountain West.

The Broncos' greatest challenge will be its season opener against the Oregon Ducks in Boise.

Even if Boise State wins, it will yield a BCS berth to the Mountain West if Utah can manage a win at Autzen and top Boise's best victory.

From there, the BCS invite will be up for grabs to whomever survives the slug-fest between TCU, BYU and Utah, and comes out with one loss or less.

Additionally, if Boise State loses at least once, and the Big East champion does not crack the top No. 17 in the BCS, don’t be surprised if a two-loss Mountain West team receives a BCS berth.

3. For just the second time in Ute history (2004), Utah will be in the top 25 from start to finish in 2009.

The Utes begin 2009 with their highest preseason rankings ever, coming in at No. 18 in the Coaches Poll and No. 19 in the AP.

Utah will open the season with a couple of warm-ups against Utah State and San Jose State prior to the showdown vs. Oregon. A road loss to a highly ranked Oregon team will not displace a 2-1 Utah from the top 25.

Following the trip to Eugene, Utah should be heavy favorites for the ensuing six games before a highly anticipated match-up against TCU.

During that six game span, the Utes will host Louisville, New Mexico, Air Force, and Wyoming and travel to UNLV and Colorado State.

The Nov. 14 brawl at TCU will be wrought with BCS implications, but even a loss to the Frogs won’t be enough to displace the Utes from the Top 25.

Coming off their greatest season ever, a full season in the Top 25 will send a strong message to recruits and to CFB nation that the Utes are here to stay on the national scene.

4. Don’t bother marking your calendar for the Holy War; Utah will win in Provo on Nov. 28.

Credit Utah’s speedy defense and innovative game plan for last year’s 48-24 drubbing over BYU.

While the Cougars return a ton of offensive productivity, there won't be enough improvement to overcome a defense that completely stifled Max Hall and forced five interceptions.

In fact, BYU has never beaten a ranked Utah team.

5. Utah will be a BCS program by the time the 2010 recruits graduate.

Somewhere between congressional intervention, the continued emergence of the Mountain West, the decline of the Big East and the possible expansion of the Pac-10, something will give way and make Utah an official BCS program.

My sense is the Pac-10 will only come knocking if new Commissioner Larry Scott somehow feels threatened by the prospect of a second BCS conference in the west.

BCS: How One Weak Link Hurts all Big Six

Brian Nelson — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 19:38:08 -0400

The Big East... you are "the weakest link."

If being excluded from the USA Today/Coaches Poll Top 25 wasn't embarrassing enough for the beleaguered Big East conference, it got even worse on Saturday.

The AP Top 25 released its preseason poll over the weekend with one glaring omission; no Big East.

While the AP poll has no bearing on the BCS, it does at least provide a snapshot of national perception. A perception that can be very difficult to change wihout an elite program.

If these polls are remotely indicative of actual strength, it clearly does not bode well for the Big East, but it also hurts the BCS as a whole in a number of ways.

Bolstered Case for the Mountain West

For starters, a weakened Big East could mean another year, another undeserving, under-qualified team inheriting a BC$ Bowl. All while more worthy teams stand on the outside. Last season's Texas Tech, TCU and Boise State teams come to mind.

This alone can help provide the Mountain West and their congressional representatives much needed ammo to bolster their case for inclusion. And the timing couldn't be better for the budding conference.

The Mountain West made a huge statement by having three teams placed in the preseason AP Top 20. That's more than the Big 10; and right on par with the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-10. Only the SEC has more.

That's good company for a conference with fewer teams than any of those conferences.

While the Mountain West is overwhelmingly top-heavy, the lofty rankings reflect the incredible strides the conference has made since TCU came on board in 2005.

Before then, Mountain West teams could only be found in the "others receiving votes" category of most preseason polls. In other words, where the Big East brass are found today.

This should be a very concerning trend for the Big East. As the Big East struggles to find its identity after losing coaches like Bobby Petrino and Rich Rod, and talents like Pat White and LeSean McCoy, the surge of the non-BCS seems more sustainable.

Somehow teams like Boise State and the Mountain West triumvirate have managed to retain their most successful coaches.

Fewer At-Large Berths

If the Big East champion fails to reach the top #17 in the BCS, a non-BCS team would automatically qualify for a BCS bowl just by reaching the top #16.

With four non-BCS teams starting in the Coaches Top 20, the latter is almost certain to happen.

That's the big caveat a struggling Big East throws into the mix. It lowers the bar for non-BCS entrance dramatically. Mountain West teams may no longer have to run the table to get a shot at the table. In fact, they may very well get in with a two loss champion.

Last year, Utah, TCU and BYU all finished in the BCS Top 16. Despite both TCU and BYU having suffered two regular season losses.

And the Tide thought 12-0 Utah was a bad draw.

It could get even worse if Notre Dame manages to finish in the top #8. A top eight finish would guarantee a berth for the Irish. They certainly have the schedule for it. And former Coach Lou Holtz seems to think they are well on their way.

With only two at-large berths available, and possibly four BCS conferences with multiple BCS-worthy teams, the ensuing brawl for who ultimately gets in could get downright nasty. It could be 2004 all over again.

Showdown in Dodge

Remember 2004? It was the last time the BCS had so few berths. It was the year prior to the addition of the fifth BCS Bowl and the year Utah busted the BCS. The competition for BCS at-large placement was fierce. The latter part of the 2004 season was characterized by politics, posturing, back door deals and blatant cheating.

It was a year where even the SEC felt like a red-headed stepchild. That was the year Mack Brown whined his way into the BCS, while Aaron Rodgers and a more deserving Cal wound up playing in December.

I like Texas, but the Longhorns didn't belong in 2004. Despite what the final box score read, Kansas beat them late in the season that year. I watched the game. The officiating crew went to extreme measures to ensure the Big 12's most profitable outcome.

Kansas Head Coach Mark Mangino knew it. He called the Big 12 on it; and backed up his team for a hard fought game even though it landed him a huge fine.

The drama in 2004 was intense. The debates were endless. True colors were shown. If any of the scenarios above play out, you can expect it to get even worst in 2009.

Imagine the Outrage

Aside from the politics of who would get in, the real damage would come from who get's left out.

Let's say the Pac-10 has a year similar to last season. USC loses their annual road game to a conference foe like Cal, who goes on to have the same conference record, wins the tie-breaker and heads to Pasadena. Could you imagine the outcry in Los Angeles if a one loss, top five USC team was relegated to the Holiday Bowl? Especially if the Trojans were passed up for a two-loss BYU, a four-loss Rutgers, and a Notre Dame team whom USC had just beaten.

Conversely, what would happen if the Big 10 or Pac 10 had a strong enough second team to receive an additional berth? Could you imagine the reaction if only one SEC or Big 12 team made a BCS Bowl?

Looking back at last year, that would mean pollsters might have to decide between a 12-1 Alabama, undefeated in the SEC regular season; or 12-1 Texas, who beat Oklahoma and came within a toe nail of winning out.

Granted, it would make for one hell of a conference championship game, but still, I don't see the folks in the South putting up with it.

White Knight

The scenarios may be extreme, but they illustrate the range of possibilities that a weak link can create for a system founded on exclusivity and superiority.

The Big East can still right the ship.

Before last year, they were on a roll beating up teams from the Big 12, the ACC and the SEC on the BCS stage. But they have fallen in the same trap that has plagued mid-majors for decades; coaching attrition.

Bobby Petrino fled to the SEC. Rich Rod took his act to Ann Arbor. The Big East hasn't been the same since. This conference is in dire need for a marquee team to step up and emerge as the face of the conference. I don't see that happening this year.

The smart money seems to be on Pitt for 2009. Pitt has received the most votes in each poll, and was selected in a Big East media poll to win the conference title.

Unfortunately, Pitt is not a BCS caliber team. The last time we saw Pitt, they were suffering a humiliating 3-0 loss to Oregon State in the Sun Bowl.

I don't see how that same Pitt team can magically rise to prominence while overcoming the loss of losing superstar RB LeSean McCoy. Not for such a run-heavy team.

Summary

Overall, it looks like another down year at the top of the Big East.

While parity throughout the conference is a major strength, the BCS is about champions. Weak champions make for poor bowls and lower revenue for the BCS. They provide huge inroads for strong non-BCS conferences; and they keep revenue and opportunity away from other BCS powerhouse teams and conferences.

This cannot last.Either the Big East needs to step up or they will force the BCS to either cut bait, expand to include conferences they don't want, or try to add another boring, diluted BCS bowl to the mix.