Bleacher Report - Articles by Tyler Hissey

Tampa Bay Rays Clear-Cut Favorites in Fall Classic

Tyler Hissey — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 19:38:50 -0400

The oddsmakers in Las Vegas have it right: The Tampa Bay Rays are the easy favorite to win the World Series.

The Philadelphia Phillies have several outstanding stars, including ace left-hander Cole Hamels, former MVPs Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins, and perhaps the premier infielder in the game, Chase Utley.

The Rays have a more complete roster, however, without any glaring weaknesses 1-through-25, and a better starting rotation.

Anything can happen in a short series, as the St. Louis Cardinals reminded us a few years back, but Tampa Bay is the superior team when looking at each club objectively.

The Rays’ success was dismissed as a fluke by several “experts” throughout the year. Time and time again, though, the talented group continued to silence their critics, outlasting the game’s financial superpowers to win the major's most competitive division.

Winning the American League East, of course, is no small feat. The Rays, relying on excellent run prevention to punch a ticket to the eight-team October tournament, proved that they were for real over the full 162-game season.

After winning the East, the lack-of-experience columns began resurfacing before the start of the Division Series. Yet again, though, B.J. Upton, James Shields, and company put that talk to rest, defeating a veteran-heavy Chicago White Sox team in four games.

In an epic American League Championship Series, Tampa Bay then flashed its offensive muscle in a tremendous seven-game set with the defending World Series Champion Boston Red Sox.

The path to the Fall Classic, therefore, has been considerably more difficult for Tampa Bay than Philadelphia, which cruised through a Milwaukee Brewers team mostly led by one stud pitcher and the 84-win Los Angeles Dodgers.

Not to mention, the American League, which has truly emerged as the superior league in the past five years, is a considerably more competitive environment to play in.

All of these factors could play a role in the outcome of the upcoming tilt between two organizations known for their losing ways.

The Rays’ home-field advantage will also come into play, especially in the year of the home team. They finished the regular season with the major's premier record at home, playing like All Stars in the friendly confines of Tropicana Field.

Hamels can help negate this, to a degree, by tossing a gem in the opener. But the cowbell effect will is a legitimate factor, as Tampa Bay is practically perfect when playing in front of a crowd of 30,000-plus.

Here is a breakdown how each team measures up in every facet of the game.

Rotations

Hamels is the best starting pitcher on either team. He gives the Phillies the advantage in the pitching matchup for Game One. The 24-year-old left-hander has been absolutely brilliant in the postseason, emerging as a legitimate big-game pitcher and postseason ace.

In three starts, including two during his MVP performance in the NLCS, he has limited opposing hitters to a .173 batting average while posting a 1.23 ERA in 22.0 innings pitched. The October success is nothing out of left field for him, however, as he finished the regular season ranked first in the National League in WHIP (1.08), second in innings pitched (227.1) and sixth in complete games (2), ERA (3.09), and strikeouts (196).

In 33 starts overall, he limited opponents to an anemic line of .227/.271/.384 while walking only 53. To put it bluntly, he is a stud.

Hamels, without question, is the X-factor for Philadelphia. He needs to shut down the Rays’ offense on multiple occasions if the Phillies wish to have any real shot of winning the series. Tampa Bay has a lineup featuring several key offensive players who have struggled against southpaws—from Carl Crawford to Akinori Iwamura—and this will work to Hamels’ advantage.

While the Rays are coming off a solid ALCS, in which they put up several runs off of star lefty Jon Lester on two different occasions, he has to find a way to exploit this weakness.

The Rays will also turn to a lefty in the opener, sending out Scott Kazmir. Kazmir has not been efficient with his pitches over much of the past three months, but he pitched surprisingly well in Game Five of the ALCS at Fenway Park last week. When he has command over his fastball and can work ahead of hitters, he is as dominant as they come and is tough to beat.

Also, keep in mind that, although this has been labeled as a down year by his standards, he still finished as the Rays’ leader in ERA and is the most successful pitcher in the history of the franchise, at 24 years old.

Kazmir has had a difficult time getting out of the first inning recently and is unlikely to work deep into the game. Kazmir, too, will benefit from facing a Phillies’ lineup that features several left-handed sluggers—including Howard, who batted only .224/.294/.451 against southpaws.

After Hamels, there is a considerable drop off for Philadelphia. Brett Myers, who reemerged as a weapon after a demotion to the minors this summer, will pitch Game Two. Returning to the rotation after serving as the Phils’ closer in 2007, Myers had a roller-coaster season that saw him return to his old form after a few weeks at Lehigh Valley.

He has allowed seven earned runs in 12.0 innings this October but has won each of his decisions. He is a big question mark heading into the week.

"Big Game" James Shields may have not lived up to his nickname in Game Six of the ALCS, but he has been the Rays’ most effective pitcher to this point. Shields, who has plus-fastball command and an excellent change-up, posted a 3.56 ERA (122 park-adjusted ERA+) and stellar 160-to-40 K/W ratio in a team-best 215.0 innings pitched during the year.

Unlike Kazmir, Joe Maddon can count on him to work deep into the game. Shields is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA in three postseason appearances, striking out 13 in 19.1 innings pitched.

Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer are not exactly studs at the back of the Phillies’ rotation, which clearly gives Tampa Bay the edge when looking at each staff as a whole.

Blanton has been decent but unspectacular since coming over in a midseason trade with the Oakland Athletics. Having to pitch in hitter-friendly Citizen’s Bank Park has certainly not done him any favors.

Moyer, on the other hand, had a fine regular season, establishing himself as the Julio Franco of pitching, as he inches near his 50th birthday. He has been lit up in the postseason, however, which is a legitimate concern.

It might be in the Phillies’ best interest to start Hamels in Games One, Four, and Seven, if necessary, because the gap in ability between him and the aforementioned pair is stark.

It is a different story for Tampa Bay.

Matt Garza, coming off a dominant, big-game performance in the ALCS finale, has a mid-90s fastball and can shut down any offense on any given night—just ask Lester and the Red Sox.

While he has become a household name in Boston after his fine showing to this point in October, Garza had a fine year overall. In fact, Rays Vice President of Baseball Operations, Andrew Friedman, now looks like a genius for dealing former No. 1 overall pick Delmon Young to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for Garza and all-field, no-hit shortstop Jason Bartlett last December.

Andy Sonnanstine, the likely Game Four starter, is more than just a freakishly amazing ping-pong player: The kid can pitch, too. Sonnanstine does not have an overpowering fastball but has tremendous command and knows how to pitch. Some scouts even refer to him as Greg Maddux Lite.

His ability to limit walks and keep runners off base is perhaps the biggest reason for his surprising success. As a mid-round pick out of Kent State back in 2004, Sonnanstine repeatedly had to prove himself by putting up tremendous numbers in the minors—which he did at every level along the way. He is prone to surrendering home runs, but he is a tough competitor who is very effective when he hits his spots.

In regards to rotation, the Rays have the clear-cut advantage—though the Phillies have the better, truer ace. If Hamels should falter, however, this series could end rather quickly.

Bullpen

The Phillies are 86-0 in games in which they hold the lead entering the ninth inning. When Howard and the gang provide the Philadelphia relief corps with a lead entering the late innings, in fact, the fans can start heading for the exits. This is why it will be crucial for the Rays to score early and often, gaining and keeping the lead before the seventh inning.

The bullpen success starts with Brad Lidge, who has been perfect in 46 save chances, including the postseason. Lidge, the N.L. Comeback Player of the Year, has undoubtedly regained his status as an elite closer. Pat Gillick, in fact, deserves a lot of credit for dealing Michael Bourne and his nightmare on-base skills (or lack thereof) in exchange for the stud closer, whose value was fairly low at the time of the player swap, this past winter.

Lidge truly has been dominant, posting a 1.95 ERA and 92-to-35 K/W ratio while surrendering only two long balls in 69.1 innings pitched over 72 regular-season appearances. He has continued to get it done in the playoffs, too, as he has picked up five saves in as many chances while allowing only one run in 7.1 innings. The hangover from the Albert Pujols bomb is officially over, it seems.

Chad Durbin (2.90 ERA), Ryan Madson (.3.43 ERA), and J.C. Romero (3.02 ERA) have done a solid job bridging the gap to Lidge. The group, however, is prone to allowing hitters to reach base via the walk—not a good combination considering the Rays’ patient approach at the plate.

Overall, though, Philadelphia has a slight edge when it comes to relief pitching.

The Tampa Bay bullpen is not exactly a weakness, though. In fact, even without injured and ineffective closer Troy Percival taking the ball down the stretch, the Rays’ relief corps had one of the lowest ERAs in the majors.

Poor ALCS performance aside, Grant Balfour, the mad Australian with the mid-90s heater, has been tremendous. After nearly making the roster out of Spring Training, Balfour dominated at Triple-A Durham before getting called up to the show. He then flourished upon his promotion, posting a 1.54 ERA, unbelievable 82-to-24 K/W ratio, and 0.89 WHIP.

Although he only finished with four saves, he was the Rays’ most valuable reliever in high-leverage situations down the stretch—the relief ace that Bill James dreamed of back in the day. His 7.94 postseason ERA may leave some skeptical, but his performance is primarily the result of a small sample size. Assuming the Lidge-Pujols effect does not apply to him, Maddon can certainly count on him to continue to retire hitters in the World Series.

J.P. Howell, equally effective against lefties and righties, was great, too, helping to improve a Tampa Bay bullpen which allowed the most runs of any bullpen in the past 50 years just a season earlier. Dan Wheeler, despite a lack of tremendous stuff, has pitched a lot of key innings for this club as well.

Maddon unleashed his secret weapon in Game Seven, calling on ace-in-training David Price to face J.D. Drew and the Boston Red Sox in the eighth inning. Price delivered, showing tremendous poise and stuff in the final 1.1 innings to earn his first major-league save. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft out of Vanderbilt, he had a tremendous debut professional campaign.

The flamethrowing, lanky southpaw finished 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 109-to-32 K/W ratio in 19 starts across three levels in the minors on his way to earning USA Today Minor League Player of the Year honors.

Price has a plus fastball—as the nation saw on Sunday night—a slider that sits in the high-80s and a developing change-up, in addition to solid command and excellent make-up. Essentially, he is a scout’s dream. Do not be surprised to see him play a major role in the Fall Classic, especially since the Phillies’ lineup features so many left-handed hitters.

If Price, the top prospect in the game entering the year, has anything to do with it, the Rays actually might have the edge in bullpen as well. It is unlikely that there will be a carryover effect from the epic collapse in Game Five at Fenway Park for the group as a whole.

Offense

The Phillies’ lineup is very top-heavy. Utley, Howard and Rollins are three of the majors’ most dynamic offensive players, and have yet to fully break out in the postseason. An unlikely cast of characters and the supporting cast—from Matt Stairs, whose game-winning home run in the NLCS was the biggest hit of the Phillies’ season, to Shane Victorino—has helped carry the offense so far.

The aforementioned trio—in addition to slugger Pat Burrell—have to pick it up if the Phillies are to win the series.

Howard had a great second half and finished as the N.L. leader in homers and RBI, but this has overshadowed his poor start and low on-base percentage. Although his name is being thrown around in the MVP conversation, it is hard to overlook that he does not rank in the Top 10 in his league in either OPS or VORP.

The high RBI total, it seems, is more of a result of having Rollins and several high-OBP hitters setting the table in front of him. He has not been a factor in the playoffs, either, and has been shut down by left-handed pitching all year. A streaky hitter, he needs to pick it up this week—which might be a challenge against the talented Rays’ pitching staff.

Utley, then, is the more likely candidate to change the outcome of the series with his bat. He is practically as underrated as his counterpart on the right side of the infield is overrated and was actually the more valuable offensive player for his team over the full 162 games. He hit .292/.380/.535 to finish as the team leader with a 62.3 VORP while playing tremendous defense at the keystone.

Burrell (.260/.367/.507), Rollins (.277/.349/.437), Victorino (.293/.352/.447), and even Jayson Werth (.273/.363/.498) are all solid offensive contributors as well. The bottom half of the lineup, however, is not exactly intimidating.

Stairs, who makes no bones about his swing-for-the-fences approach, will likely serve as a capable DH, a rarity for N.L. teams in the recent past. Greg Dobbs, an excellent bat off the bench, may make his mark on history as well.

The Phillies steal bases with tremendous efficiency but are an offense that primarily relies on the long ball. There is no question that they have more star power, but the Rays’ lineup is better overall.

Tampa Bay, which has always been a patient bunch of hitters, has been otherworldly offensively at times this postseason, bringing back memories of Murderer’s Row during the ALCS. This is surprising to some, given their struggles at times to put up runs during the summer.

They have posted a line of .268/.335/.508, for an .843 team OPS, with 22 home runs in 11 playoff games. The power is unlikely to hold up, although the Philadelphia staff is prone to giving up homers—especially at Citizen’s Bank Park.

Upton has been a big reason for the recent surge. The star center fielder hit only nine home runs in 500-plus at-bats during the year, as a shoulder injury prevented him from turning on the ball with authority. He seems to be at full strength now, however, and has already left the yard seven times in only 48 at-bats in October.

He is now hitting .304/.365/.826, with a 1.191 OPS for the month. If he can continue to produce, the Rays might have found their own version of Mr. October.

Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena are also solid weapons in the middle of the lineup. Longoria is the shoo-in for A.L. Rookie of the Year, despite missing nearly a month. The sweet-swinging third baseman finished his debut season with a line of .272/.343/.531, and has also hit six bombs during the playoffs.

Pena was a monster in 2007, forcing the Rays to sign him to a three-year, $24-million contract. Injuries prevented him from replicating his similar 46-homer, 1.000-plus OPS production, as he got off to a poor start in the first half. The Rays’ vocal leader helped carry an injury-plagued offense to the finish line with a solid run down the stretch, though, again finishing with more the 30 homers and 100 RBI. Look for him to take his walks and add value in the series.

The supporting cast—from guys like Willy Aybar to even double-digit home run bench man Ben Zobrist—has provided several key hits as well. Tampa Bay is truly a sum of its parts.

It is unlikely that the power surge will continue. The Rays got to this point through excellent run prevention, and, if they can continue to mash (16 home runs in the ALCS), they could run away with the series.

Defense

Each team has an excellent defense.

The Rays converted a higher percentage of balls put into play into outs than any other team in baseball, ranking first in the majors in defensive efficiency.

The poor defense seemed to leave with the name Devil for the franchise, as Tampa Bay finished last season ranked 30th in the same metric. The days of Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson taking up innings at such a key position are over, though, and this is arguably one of the ultimate reasons for the Rays’ turnaround.

The excellent defense goes hand-in-hand with the Rays’ improved pitching staff as well. Every pitcher mentioned above reaped the benefits of pitching in front of such a capable defensive unit. Friedman realized this when he decided to part ways with the former top prospect Young, as he received a capable defender at shortstop in Bartlett and a legitimate No. 3 starter in Garza.

Bartlett, with his tremendous range, has been a key to the defensive turnaround in St. Petersburg. He is not exactly a stud offensively (.690 OPS), but he is the one player who Maddon has labeled irreplaceable and was even voted as the Team MVP by the Tampa Bay chapter of the BBWAA for his contributions with the glove.

Akinori Iwamura has made a flawless transition to second base. Iwamura, in fact, is as smooth around the bag, when it comes to turning the double play, as nearly every second sacker in the A.L.

Pena and Longoria, who may end up winning a Gold Glove, are each solid defenders on the corners.

Carl Crawford certainly had a down year offensively, but his defense in left field was tremendous. Crawford and Upton together turned several potential gap hits into outs, using their excellent speed to rob hitters of base hits.

When Fernando Perez is in right field, the Rays have perhaps the fastest outfield in big-league history. Even when Gabe Gross is in right, though, the outfield corps is the strongest defensively in the game today.

The excellent defense was a major reason for the Rays’ remarkable improvement in run prevention. In ’07, a year in which the then-Devil Rays finished 65-96 and in the cellar of the A.L. East, the club had a -165 run differential, allowing 939 runs.

This year, the Rays only allowed only 671 runs, as the young pitchers established themselves and the defense shined behind them.

Philadelphia, which finished 10th in defensive efficiency, has a strong team defense as well.

Utley is an exceptional defender at second base, one of the premier fielders at the position in the league. The other half of the double-play combination, Rollins, is an excellent defensive shortstop.

Victorino is an even better defender in center field than Upton, which is saying a lot.

The two major weaknesses defensively for the Phils are Burrell in left field and Howard at first base.

Still, the Rays have the edge in team defense.

Summary

The Rays are a better team. Winning the A.L. East over a full season may be more impressive than getting hot over a few weeks and winning a title. That is how strong that division is.

Philadelphia has a chance to win the series if they can get big performances from their stars. The roster is top heavy in each facet listed above. They have three stud offensive players, a solid ace in Hamels, and a lights-out closer in Lidge. If this group produces, they could easily win this thing.

If the Rays can get to Hamels, however, another World Series sweep may be inevitable.

Rays in six.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

Inside The Box Score: NLCS Game One

Tyler Hissey — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 06:48:46 -0400

The Phillies won the opener of the NLCS last night, as Chase Utley and Pat Burrell connected for home runs off of Dodgers starter Derek Lowe in a three-run sixth inning.

While Citizen’s Bank Park is a hitter-friendly environment, Lowe hardly ever surrenders any long balls. And with a 2-0 lead headed into the sixth, it appeared as if the veteran right-hander and his club were going to cruise to a solid Game One win.

And, boy, that would have been huge for L.A. If they had beaten the Phils’ most effective starter, Cole Hamels, on the road, they would be in great shape right now.

But then Rafael Furcal made an uncharacteristic error, Utley and Burrell went yard and Hamels and the Phillies never looked back.

Inside The Box Score:

Phillies’ Side—

• The Phillies, as they have done consistently in the past, scored all of their runs in one inning. All runs came via the long ball as well.

• Burrell, catcher Carlos Ruiz and Utley combined for six of the Phillies’ seven hits. Hamels, who ripped a solid line shot into center field, had the other.

• Ruiz, who posted a line of .219/.320/.300 during the regular season, finished 2-for-3.

• Brad Lidge tossed a perfect ninth inning to pick up the save. Lidge, perhaps a sleeper Cy Young candidate, has now converted 44 saves in as many chances. It took him a while to overcome a hangover from the 2005 NLCS—when he gave up that monstrous shot to Albert Pujols while with the Astros—but he has reestablished himself as one of the most dominant closers in the game with Philadelphia.

During the regular season, in fact, he was practically untouchable, limiting opposing hitters to an anemic line of .198/.295/.269 and .563 OPS while posting a 1.95 ERA in 72 appearances. If the Phils’ have the lead late in the game, Charlie Manuel can feel confident that his club is going to leave with a W.

• Hamels, by the way, was not too shabby on the mound on Thursday, either. The 24-year-old southpaw scattered two earned runs on six hits in seven solid innings, striking out eight. He threw 70 out of 105 pitches for strikes, though he did walk two batters.

Dodgers’ side—

• In case you had not heard, Manny Ramirez is a freakishly amazing, out-of-this-universe stud of a hitter. Ramirez picked up where he left of from the Division Series, driving a deep double to center field to score Andre Ethier in the first inning and stake the Dodgers an early lead. He finished 2-for-4, raising his postseason line to .500/.611/.1000.

If you are scoring at home, that is a 1.611 OPS. Granted, the sample size is too small to get all worked up about, but this guy has been unbelievable since making the trip to the West Coast. As much pub as he gets, he kind of deserves it.

Tim McCarver can insult his behavior however he wants, but Ramirez has shown why he is arguably the best hitter in baseball when he is locked in. As a Dodger, he just does not make any outs, it seems.

He blasted 17 bombs in 53 games after the trade, slugging .743 with a 1.232 OPS. In Citizen’s Bank Park, it might not be the in the Phillies’ best interest to throw him anything near the strike zone, unless they go up-and-in.

• While the Dodgers are certainly not happy about losing, there were some positives. This starts with the bullpen work, as three Dodger relievers combined to shut down the Phillies’ offense after Lowe was removed from the game with one out in the sixth inning.

• Chan Ho Park—yes, that Chan Ho Park is still pitching—retired two batters to get out of the frame with any more damage. Park, by the way, has provided a nice comeback story for baseball.

While it is certainly not on the Ankiel/Hamilton level of overcoming the odds, it is quite amazing that he is back, and effective, in the majors at this point. He posted a 3.40 ERA in 54 games, including five starts, allowing 36 earned runs in 95.1 innings pitched. Sure, he pitched in ’07 with the Mets, but did anyone outside of Queens pick up on that?

• Well, now that the Chan Ho tangent is out of the way, another unsuspecting reliever who pitched well was Greg Maddux. Maddux, one of the greatest starting pitchers of all time, tossed a scoreless seventh. His stuff is below-average now, but he still has excellent command and knows how to pitch.

Still, though the inning of work may not seem significant in the loss, it does have other implications. This means that he will not make a start in the series, as Clayton Kershaw, who has tremendous stuff, will get the nod.

• Hong-Chih Kuo, who posted a 2.14 ERA, 96-to-21 K/W ratio and 1.01 WHIP in 42 regular season appearances, tossed a perfect ninth. Even without Saito, the Dodgers truly have an excellent bullpen, though some of the aforementioned stats were inflated by a friendly home pitching environment.

• Like Philadelphia, L.A. combined for seven hits. Man-Ram and Ethier combined for four of them, with Russell Martin, James Loney and Matt Kemp collecting the others.

Some other things that popped into my head.

• It is weird seeing Maddux in a relief role.

• Jeff Kent is old.

• Nomar belongs on the bench, even though Loney’s splits against lefties are far from impressive.

• This game featured two of the most exciting, fast leadoff-hitting shortstops in the game in Furcal and Jimmy Rollins. And they are both switch hitters, too. But neither player reached base, combining to go 0-for-8, and Furcal had the error. Still, it has to be nice to get him back in the lineup for L.A. He was a monster in April before his injury, posting a .357/.439/.573 slash stats line in 36 games overall.

Thinking about Game Two, it should be interesting to see which Brett Myers shows up. Myers was garbage in the first half, before being demoted to the minors. He returned to Philly rejuvenated, putting together a nice little string of quality starts together. He did struggle, however, in September.

Even with an effective Myers going for Philadelphia, L.A. has the edge in Chad Billingsley, who has excellent stuff and struck out 201 in 200.2 innings pitched during the regular season.

Billingsley can shut any offense down on any given night, and was perhaps the most valuable arm on the Dodgers all year—16-10, 3.14 ERA, 1.34 WHIP.

Anything can happen in one game, or a short series, which is why postseason baseball predictions are so ridiculous. Plus, the ballpark effect will play a factor, as the Coors Field of the East might play a role again. (Hey, if the game had been played in L.A. last night, Burrell and Utley might still be homerless for the series.) Still, I like the Dodgers in the second game.

Any thoughts on the series?

MLB Quick Hits: Sabathia Talk/LCS Picks

Tyler Hissey — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 08:27:39 -0400

According to Jon Heyman of SI.com, the New York Yankees want to sign at least two of the three premier free agent starting pitchers on the market—A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe and CC Sabathia.

Although Sabathia has said that money will not be the ultimate factor that drives a decision for him, I have a difficult time taking him at his word. Sabathia has said all the right things to the local Milwaukee media, but he is going to follow the money.

Since the Yankees have unlimited financial resources to work with (especially when moving into a new ballpark), there is no team that can match them in a bidding war. Sabathia recently shot down the rumors that he is interested in returning to California. He certainly could end up in a number of other potential cities, but New York—with the Mets as a slim possibility—seems like the best bet.

Lowe, a Scott Boras client, has had a nice season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a 3.24 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 34 starts. Using his excellent sinker, the 35-year-old right-hander posted a 7-3 record with a 2.38 ERA after the All-Star break, limiting hitters to a .226 batting average in 87 innings. He has also pitched well in the postseason to this point, picking the right time, for Boras and his bank account, to find his groove on the mound.

Burnett has not told the Toronto Blue Jays if he will opt out of his contract—yet. Odds are, though, this will happen fairly soon, leaving him as a realistic option for Brian Cashman and the Yankees.

He won 18 games in Toronto in 2008, but posted a 4.07 ERA, which is slightly higher than his 3.81 career average. The 31 year-old right-hander is also always an injury threat, but can miss bats as well as anyone in the business, which was evident by his 231 strikeouts in 221.1 innings pitched. If I were a betting man, I would say that he will be pitching in the Pinstripes next year alongside Sabathia, not Lowe.

The Chicago Cubs picked up the option on Rich Harden’s contact yesterday. This was the right decision by the Cubs.

While Harden is always at risk of injury, he is a dominant pitcher when he is healthy enough to pitch. Since coming over to Chicago in a mid season trade with the Oakland Athletics, he posted a 1.77 ERA while striking out 89 in 71 innings pitched. Jim Hendry was not left with a lot of time to make a decision, sure, but he made the right choice. A recent test showed that he had no structural damage in his right shoulder.

There is a lot of talk about whether or not Troy Percival will be put on the Tampa Bay Rays’ ALCS roster. Well, if it were up to me, I would say no.

Percival is a veteran who has World Series experience. These two factors have led several mainstream analysts and writers to talk about how he is an essential piece to the puzzle and needs to be on the roster. To their credit, he certainly has had a tremendous positive impact on several of the Rays’ young talented arms, all while helping to instill a culture of winning in the clubhouse.

However, based on his performance in the second half—6.11 post-All-Star break ERA, 16 walks in 17.2 innings pitched—and an obvious decline in his command and stuff, Joe Maddon can no longer trust him with a lead late in the game. Period.

The closer-by-committee group of Grant Balfour, who throws absolute smoke, Chad Bradford, one of the best groundball specialists in the games who practically never surrenders home runs, and Dan Wheeler has a better chance of getting the job done in the ninth inning with the game on the line. So, whoever says that this relief method does not work, think again—talent is the secret ingredient, though.

So while the talking heads will give the bullpen advantage to Boston, which does have a better pure closer in Jonathan Papelbon, not having a healthy Percival is not that big of a deal. Even if the veteran righty is healthy, he does not deserve to be pitching important innings at this stage of the season.

Picks for the Upcoming Series

Although anything can happen in a short series, I will offer up my picks for the upcoming LCS in each league.

American League

Throw the experience argument out the window right now. Despite what they say on TBS, the Rays will not be intimidated by the Red Sox. It really comes down to talent more than anything else. All of the talk about heart and such makes for a more compelling story to some journalists.

If Tampa Bay could not handle the pressure, would they have won the AL East?

Every time these two teams met up in the regular season, it seems, the same stories would show up about how the young, pesky Rays would fade under the pressure.

Well, they did not, outlasting the Red Sox to win baseball’s most competitive division.

With that being said, too many people are also focusing on how the Rays won the regular season series, 10-8. Well, throw that argument out the window, too. This time last week, everybody in the media was talking about how the Los Angeles Angels dominated Boston all year as well, and look how that series turned out.

One thing is for sure, though. These teams have battled it out all year, and it is going to be an exciting series.

Boston has the better offense, in my opinion, and are always a threat to hang up a 13 spot like they did off of Scott Kazmir in September. They led the league with a .358 on-base percentage, meaning that they will force Tampa Bay pitchers to throw strikes.

They have so many guys—from MVP candidates Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilus to Big Papi—who can cause tremendous damage with one swing of the bat.

But the Rays’ pitching staff has shown that they are up to the challenge. James “Big Game” Shields will start Game one like he did in the Division Series. Shields is likely to last until at least the seventh inning, which will be good for his bullpen with Scott Kazmir, who labors and has had trouble making it through five lately, taking the hill in Game two.

If he can turn in a quality start—perhaps similar to his complete game shutout against Boston back in April—and the Rays can jump out to an early series lead, they may never look back.

Daisuke Matsusaka, similar to Kazmir, has not been efficient with his pitches. The Rays need to make him throw strikes, showing sound plate discipline, because when he does throw it over the plate, he is tough to hit (lowest opponents’ batting average in the majors).

The other pitching match-ups are equally as intriguing. Which Kazmir will show up? The guy who was so dominant in June and July or post-All-Star break Kaz?

Jon Lester has been excellent in the postseason, and has really emerged as a front-line starter. Lester, in fact, seems to be the ace of the Boston staff right now. It will be tough for Tampa Bay to scrape runs across against him. Ditto for Josh Beckett, who had a down year but is still one of the best big-game pitchers in the game.

Matt Garza, though, can shut any offense down on any given night in his own right.

All-in-all, the pitching match-ups seem pretty even, though Andy Sonnanstine is a better fourth option than Tim Wakefield.

The Rays have the better defense, having converted more balls put into play into outs than any other team in the majors, and I think the edge in bullpen.

So, while anything can happen (cannot stress this enough), I choose the Rays if they can continue to throw strikes, catch the ball and get the timely hits, from nearly everyone on the roster, like they have been doing all along.

The key for them, though, is to get into the Boston bullpen early and often. Papelbon is lights out, but the link to the closer has been a problem at times. Manny Delcaremen and Justin Masterson have helped a great deal in the second half, but the Rays will have an easier time scoring runs off the likes of Mike Timlin than a Beckett, Matsuzaka, or Lester.

Another "X factor" to be considered is home field advantage. Both the Rays and Red Sox are much better at home than on the road. Tropicana Field has been kryptonite for Boston in ’08, albeit in a small sample size, and the Rays had the majors’ best record at home.

Still, the Red Sox were not too far behind, as they love playing in front of the hometown crowd at Fenway Park—a tough environment to play in for an opposing team.

Since the series starts at the Trop, where the Rays are 20-2 in games with 30,000-plus fans in attendance (the cowbell effect), they have the edge in this regard. Though they took two out of three at Fenway in September, winning at least one game on the road will be quite a challenge.

It is going to be exciting, but, due to all of the factors and my tremendous bias for the new pride of St. Pete (although my cousin plays in the Red Sox organization), I am going with the Rays in seven.

National League

I am a bit lazy to make a case right now, after going on a seemingly endless tangent about the ALCS, but I think the Philadelphia Phillies will take the cake in the series.

Cole Hamels is a stud, though he does not have the mid-90s heat. Brad Lidge has been a stud all year, having converted 41 saves in 41 tries. And the Phillies also have a number of great relievers to bridge the gap to Lidge.

Plus, Ryan Howard has been on an insane tear since September. Howard, the NL leader in homers and RBI, has posted a ridiculous .1000-plus OPS over the past 30 games, picking the right time to get hot while doing enough in 30 days to enter the MVP conversation.

Pat Burrell can mash as well. Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins do a nice job of setting the table. And, in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, they are going to score some runs.

Sinkerball pitcher Lowe will negate some of that, but I like the Phillies at home, and see them taking at least one game in Los Angeles.

Manny Ramirez is on fire, too, Rafael Furcal is back, the Dodgers’ pitching has been excellent and the match-ups favor the flavor of the month in the NL. But I am not buying into them yet.

Sure,they made fools out of the best team in the NL last week, and Man-Ram is playing on a whole other level. The Phillies, however, were the better team all year, in a tougher division.

I might be a fool for going against Joe Torre, but the October magic has not worked for him since 2000.

Phillies in six.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

Tampa Bay Rays Headed To ALCS

Tyler Hissey — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 04:18:54 -0400

The Tampa Bay Rays are going to the American League Championship Series.

Read the sentence again if you must, but it is absolutely true. The Rays continued their remarkable journey on Monday night by defeating the Chicago White Sox, 6-4, to win the first postseason series in their franchise history and advance to the next round.

And what a ride it has been, as the once lowly Tampa Bay organization is now only four victories away from reaching the World Series.

B.J. Upton, a target of criticism among many Rays fans for his apparent lack of hustle at times, led the way in Game Four. Upton hit homers in his first two at-bats, helping to chase Chicago starter Gavin Floyd from the game after three innings. The talented center fielder hit only nine home runs in the regular season, as he was bothered by a shoulder injury that will require surgery this offseason, but appears to be regaining his power stroke at the right time.

Carlos Pena also had a strong night for Tampa Bay, delivering a big run-scoring single with two outs in the fifth, and then scoring Jason Bartlett on a single in the seventh. Pena, who turned it around after the All-Star break to end the year as the Rays’ team leader with 31 home runs and second on the squad with an .871 OPS, finished the game 3-for-4 with a walk.

Overall, the top three hitters in the Tampa Bay lineup combined to go 7-for-13 with four RBI.

As it has been the case all season, though, the real story lies in the pitching.

Andy Sonnanstine continued to shine by relying more on pitching smarts than stuff, scattering three hits and two earned runs in 5.2 solid innings of work. Sonnanstine surrendered solo home runs to Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye, but only walked one batter while striking out four. Pitching on ten days’ rest, the crafty right-hander continued to do what he has done all along: keep his team in the game.

As was the case in the first two games of the series at Tropicana Field and all season, the Rays’ bullpen came up huge to help maintain Sonnanstine's early lead.

J.P. Howell came on in relief of Sonnanstine in the sixth, and tossed 1.1 scoreless innings to preserve his perfect streak in the postseason. Howell, who finally found his niche in a long relief role after failing as a starter, registered three holds in the ALDS as he has continued his breakout campaign. During the regular season, he posted a 2.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 89.1 innings pitched as one of the most valuable pieces to a much-improved Tampa Bay relief corps.

Then there was Grant Balfour, who tossed two no-hit, scoreless innings to preserve the four-hitter. Balfour, whose mid-90s fastball is absolutely dominant at times, is another example of a no-name reliever on the Rays who has emerged to solidify the backend of the bullpen that has had its fair share of question marks after injuries and ineffectiveness became an issue for Troy Percival. The last cut in spring training, he posted a 1.54 ERA and .143 opponents’ batting average and .462 OPS after getting recalled from Triple-A Durham.

Balfour struck out Ken Griffey Jr. to end the game, setting off a raucous celebration at US Cellular Field.

It is hard to imagine where the Rays would be without the surprise relief pair, and it is fitting how they combined to hold onto the lead in the clincher of the first playoff bid in franchise history.

And just like that, the AL East-champion Rays move on, and the Maddon team philosophy of 9=8 automatically becomes 9=4. The Rays, however, will now be faced with their biggest challenge yet, as they head home to face the Wild-Card-winner and their budding rival, the Boston Red Sox. Although the Rays get homefield advantage for the ALCS--a huge bonus, as the Rays finished the year with the best winning percentage at home in the AL and took two series from Boston there--the Red Sox have excellent pitching in their own right and several dangerous hitters.

Like each time before, though, do not expect the Rays to back down.

Rays Links

The Rays really know how to celebrate, writes Jim Caple.

Upton has had to fight through adversity, writes John Romano.

Bring on the Red Sox, writes Gary Shelton.

Sonnanstine just wins, writes Joe Smith.

Carl Crawford was struck in the face by a bat prior to the game, but all is OK, writes Marc Topkin.

Strong management has the Rays headed to the ALCS, writes Ken Rosenthal.

I could not agree more with Rosenthal in the article. Certainly, the Rays have had the luxury of picking early in several drafts in the past decade as a direct result of years of unprecedented losing. But, as Rosenthal mentions, look at the Pirates, the Royals, and nearly every other perennial-losing, small-market team.

Shrewd management, led by genius general manager Andrew Friedman, is the major reason for the dramatic turnaround, and why the Rays can compete in the most competitive division in the majors without a large payroll while the aforementioned teams cannot in their respective divisions.

Friedman and his staff, using advanced statistical analysis, are able to buy low and sell high as well as nearly every baseball ops group in the industry. He is able to find inefficiencies in the market for baseball players, and built this team on defense and pitching.

The result? After shoring up the infield by trading for Jason Bartlett, making the decision to move Iwamura to second base and moving Longoria along at the right pace, the Rays made the jump from worst-to-first in team defensive efficiency—the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs.

The Delmon Young trade, which was criticized at the time, now looks like a no-brainer. Young continued to struggle with his approach, finishing the season with only 10 home runs and a poor .741 OPS for a left fielder in his debut season with the Minnesota Twins. The Rays, in fact, received better production on the corner outfield spots from a group of no-name, undervalued outfielders. And with an overcrowded outfield, the Twins are already reportedly looking to shop him on the trade market. Score one, or two for Friedman.

And Bartlett, though he did not deserve to be voted Team MVP, was invaluable with his defense out at shortstop. Then there is the centerpiece of the deal, Matt Garza, who went 11-7 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP and can dominate as much as any pitcher in the sport on any given outing.

And with the improved defense and surprise turnaround in the bullpen, Tampa Bay only allowed 671 runs. The previous year, that total was closer to 1,000.

The Rays are living proof that payroll is not an issue for any club, as long as they have cost-effective, progressive management. With Friedman and the Sternberg group—who picked the right time to get out of WallStreet—at the helm, this organization is only going to get better, too.

Inside The ALDS

The Rays posted a team line of .297/.351/.507, for an .858 OPS, in the four-game series. Granted, it is a small sample size, but Maddon has to be happy that his team put up 21 runs.

Just like the regular season, though, the key was excellent run prevention rather than an overpowering offense. Tampa Bay pitchers limited the Chicago offense to a slash stats mark of .236/.298/.362, with the Rays outscoring the White Sox (13 runs) by eight runs.

Upton played a big part, pikcing up 16 total bases and posting a 1.205 OPS. He hit .278/.316/.889 in the short set of games, with a series-best three homers.

Pena collected five hits in 10 at-bats, but did not collect an extra-base hit or score.

Longoria led the Rays to a Game 1 win by hitting two long bombs into the seats in a 3-for-4, three RBI day, but ended the series going 1-for-11. Still, he was one of five Tampa Bay regulars to finish the, albeit in a small sample size, the first round with a plus-.1000 OPS—Upton, Akinori Iwamura (.389/.421/.722, .1143), Pena and Dioner Navarro (1.038) being the others.

Pitching-wise, not a single Tampa Bay starter made it out of the seventh inning.

But, with such a strong bullpen performance in the series (Dan Wheeler was the only reliever to allow a run,) this was not an issue.

Howell was perhaps the MVP of the series, tossing 4.1 scoreless innings in meaningful spots to help the Rays preserve leads in each win. Balfour and Chad Bradford combined to throw 6.1 scoreless innings as well, allowing only three hits.

Anything can happen in a short series, but it definitely helps to have a bullpen like that, which should be an advantage for Tampa Bay in the ALCS. While Boston has one of the best closers in the majors, Jonathan Papelbon, the Rays closer-by-committee scenario has worked just fine all summer.

It should be an interesting battle for the AL title.