Bleacher Report - Articles by John Lorge

Fantasy Basketball: December's Three S's for Success

John Lorge — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 17:03:30 -0500

The fantasy hoops season is in full swing and you can already tell which way your team is headed. While we know who the steals of the draft were there are still plenty of guys flying under the radar—remember, it's a long season.

December's three S's for success (star, starter, & sleeper) aren't being talked about much, but they will be come 2010.

Star: David West, PF, New Orleans Hornets

It took some time for David West to adjust to a new offensive scheme, especially without Chris Paul on the floor, but it looks like he has finally regained his All-Star form and December looks to be a good month.

West's 15.8 points and 7.1 rebounds per game are his is lowest since 2004-05. In recent years, West has played big minutes and that trend will continue from this point on. In his last two games he has logged 83 minutes, and in that time he scored 51 points.

Starting this month the Hornets will face the Lakers, who West averaged 22.5 and 11.3 against in four games last year. There will also be high scoring matchups against Sacramento, New York, Denver, Minnesota (twice), Toronto, and Golden State.

Anticipate West averaging a double-double for the month. He won't help your team a whole lot in terms of FG percentage, but he is stellar at the line.

Right now there are some owners regretting the selection of West in the draft, without Chris Paul they are especially low on his outlook. Trade an over-achieving mid-tier player for West and solidify your PF position for the rest of the season.

Starter: Rodney Stuckey, G, Detroit Pistons

With a minor ankle injury to Ben Gordon, the Pistons backcourt continues to thin out, which is opening the door for Stuckey to play over 40 minutes some nights. You can expect Gordon to return in early December, but he may not be at his full workload until the middle of the month.

Many were on the fence regarding Stuckey heading into the season, but he has quietly been a stellar fantasy performer. The combo-guard isn't a great assist man at 4.2 per game, but he averaged 18.1 points per game in November and 1.4 steals per game on the year, in 38 minutes per game.

While the Pistons like to slow down the pace they do face the up-tempo Nuggets, Sixers, Wizards, Rockets, Hornets, Raptors (twice), and Knicks.

Stuckey's production can fluctuate from night-to-night, but he has potential to crack the 20 PPG mark in December. Go after Stuckey if you are in need of points; his boards and assists are a bonus and he is killer at the stripe.

Sleeper: Jrue Holiday, PG, Philadelphia 76ers

Lou Williams' injury creates even more of a need at the one for Philly. There is no reason the 5-12 Sixers shouldn't start developing rookie PG Jrue Holiday right now.

Holiday isn't a must-start sleeper, but he is a guy who should be available on almost every waiver wire. As he gains confidence he will continue to expand his offensive production, and he will easily break his career highs of 11 points and six assists in the month of December.

One thing Holiday is already doing well is stealing the ball. In his last two starts he has came away with four steals, despite only playing 43 total minutes.

The Sixers don't have an easy schedule this month but there are a handful of potential blowouts and garbage time counts in fantasy basketball.

If you need a point guard who is going to play starter minutes, post good assists, and steal numbers Holiday is your man on the wire.

NBA Power Rankings: Lakers and Nets Bookend NBA Entering December

John Lorge — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 09:29:44 -0500

Bleacher Report's award winning NBA Power Rankings are back for another week of action.

Last week we had debate from the top to the bottom of the list, here is how the NBA shakes up at the end of November.

1. Los Angeles Lakers (1) - Had a real scare when the Nets came to town Sunday Night. Okay, so it wasn't close at all and neither have the five others since L.A.'s Nov. 15 loss.

2. Phoenix Suns (6) - The most offensive starting five in basketball didn't have a tough week but they dominated as expected. If they can beat the Cavs and Lakers this week they will be the undisputed kings of the NBA--my money says they're luck to win one of those.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (2) - Losing a defensive battle against Charlotte hurts but a strong bounce-back against Dallas where they out-scored the Mavs 24-16 in the fourth keeps them in the top three.

4. Orlando Magic (3) - Caught at home by the Heat in a controversial finish but quickly regained composure for wins in Atlanta and Milwaukee. Howard averaged 17.25 rebounds in four games this week, wow.

5. Boston Celtics (8) - The C's got back on track with three quality wins, this lineup is clearly good but will they have two All-Stars? I vote Rondo but 11 and 9 isn't exactly killing it.

6. Denver Nuggets (7) - There is no way to explain how this team lost to the T-Wolves after beating them by 13 in Minnesota earlier in the week. Had they not blown it the Western Conference would be 1, 2, 3 in the Power Rankings.

7. Dallas Mavericks (4) - This was Dallas' first two loss week of the season as Don Nelson continues to school the Mavs. On the horizon is Philly, Jersey, and Memphis--does it get much better?

8. Atlanta Hawks (5) - The recent cold spell may be exposing the Hawks true colors, on Saturday they travel into the big D, Josh Smith may be able to give Dirk all sorts of trouble on both ends of the court.

9. Portland Trail Blazers (10) - Greg Oden is emerging as the most dominant center without a Superman tattoo but his propensity for fouls makes him useless half the time.

10. San Antonio Spurs (17) - Don't look now but the Spurs are knee-deep in a nice five game streak. They get three days off before battling Boston on Thursday and Denver on Saturday, they don't need to win 'em all this season but they need to win those two.

11. Houston Rockets (11) - Each of their eight losses have came against teams who are at .500 or above right now. They have had the toughest schedule in the NBA so far this season but they need to get it done against tough teams, especially in-state where they are 0-3.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (13) - Kevin Durant is amazing but the Thunder's wins start with Russell Westbrook pressuring the opposing teams point on both ends of the floor.

13. Utah Jazz (12) - The Jazz are in a great position to get five games above .500 this week, loss against OKC was the only one in the last six games.

14. Milwaukee Bucks (9) - Crashing back down to reality, the Bucks dropped all four games last week, the common theme was that Brandon Jennings failed to score 20 points in any of those games. Scott Skiles needs to get his young star going early.

15. Miami Heat (15) - The one point win in Orlando was uplifting for the season but dropping the next two before a Western Conference trip doesn't help anything.

16. Charlotte Bobcats (23) - Charlotte just needed a little bit of offense to get the ball moving in the right direction. For the past few years Charlotte has been one of the absolute toughest places to play, and nobody expects it.

17. Sacramento Kings (19) - Many thought the Kings would be the Nets first victim but the most diverse roster in the NBA is melting together quite nicely, Sacramento should look into trading Kevin Martin for some draft picks.

18. New Orleans Hornets (18) - Every night they get a new player to step-up without Chris Paul in the lineup. Drafting guards Marcus Thronton and Darren Collison is looking like a genius move now.

19. Los Angeles Clippers (22) - The talent on this roster is good enough to beat the bad teams in the NBA as displayed by the three win week. Blake Griffin looks like he is a few weeks away but L.A. shouldn't rush him because they aren't going anywhere.

20. Washington Wizards (24) - Starting to get in rhythm now, everyone wants to talk about Gilbert Arenas but it's clear to me that Antawn Jamison is the MVP for this team.

21. Chicago Bulls (16) - Sure, Western Conference road trips are rough but dropping four straight by double-digits shows a total lack of heart.

22. Toronto Raptors (14) - Sure Chris Bosh might be one-foot out the door, but you can't blame him for the Raptor's poor play, this roster is just too soft as a whole.

23. Indiana Pacers (20) - It seemed like the Pacers would be the surprise team in the East well before the Bucks, sure Danny Granger can score but this team hasn't played D since Stephen Jackson and Ron Artest were on the roster.

24. Golden State Warriors (25) - Beating Dallas in Dallas with six guys was very impressive, maybe Don Nelson should hire a hit man to keep his roster thin.

25. Detroit Pistons (21) - Seven game skid snapped by an impressive win over Atlanta without Ben Gordon. It doesn't make them a good team though.

26. Memphis Grizzlies (26) - Two win week feels good especially when one comes in Portland, if Zach Randolph could play in front of boos every night the Grizz might be in the playoffs.

27. Philadelphia 76ers (27) - The loss of Lou Williams hurts as the Sixers battle a six game losing streak. The fact that Andre Iguodala leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists is impressive and depressing at the same time.

28. New York Knicks (28) - In a four game week that includes Phoenix, Orlando, and Atlanta, there is light at the end of the tunnel when the Nets come to town but the Knicks are the top candidate for the Nets first win and all of basketball hopes it happens.

29. Minnesota Timberwolves (29) - Huge win in Denver breaks 15 game losing streak, putting even more distance between the T-Wolves and the Nets, this team could have five wins by 2010!

30. New Jersey Nets (30) - Firing Lawrence Frank won't make things any better, NJ is dead last in FG pecentage and 3PT percentage, the talent just isn't there.

Lawrence Frank Fired, All Part of the NBA's New York State of Mind

John Lorge — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 17:41:12 -0500

After starting the season 0-16, the New Jersey Nets have fired head coach Lawrence Frank who was the longest tenured coach in the Eastern Conference. While nobody wants to be unemployed in this economy, at least Frank won't be the one coaching when the Nets match the all-time worst start against the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday Night, replacement coach Tom Barrise has earned that honor.

The atrocious start of the Nets is perfectly symbolic of the NBA's New York State of Mind. Combined, the Knicks and Nets are 3-29 this year as the two teams gear up for the summer of 2010.

Not since 1998 have the Nets and Knicks both finished above .500—as a reference, John Calipari was the coach in NJ and Jeff Van Gundy in NY. ... Between then and now New Jersey did make two NBA Finals appearances when the East was especially week although they were never a feared franchise.

Further east, the Knicks have been the butt of all jokes since the new millennium.

Is it really Frank's fault the Nets haven't won a game? What about the part when NJ traded away Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, Jason Kidd, and Ryan Anderson in the past two years?

Mike D'Antoni is safe in New York because he is a part of the 2010 plan, but the Knicks three wins is hardly more spectacular than the Nets' season considering NJ has been without Devin Harris and Yi Jianlian for a majority of the season.

The reputation of the New York/New Jersey area is that you have to be tough to make it, and if you can make it there you can make it anywhere. NYC is considered point guard heaven and even the basketball capital of the world to some.

How sad is it that professional basketball in the New York Metro Area has essentially packed it up for two seasons in hopes that the big free-agency splash of 2010 will save everything?

For the record, I do believe that the Nets will get LeBron James and possibly Chris Bosh. I also believe the Knicks will be able to get someone whether it's Dwyane Wade, Amar'e Stoudemire, or even a Rudy Gay.

That being said, putting all of their eggs in one basket has basically told fans to hibernate for 100-plus games and wake-up next fall.

The successful franchises in the NBA are so because they play for the now, they don't build for the future.

If the Nets or Knicks cannot get the players they want, are they going to overpay players just to spend? Are they going to wait until 2011?

From Frank Sinatra and Billy Joel to Nas and Jay-Z, great musicians have been telling the world about the mindset that it takes to make it in The Big Apple. The 1976 ABA Finals were the last time a New York team won a basketball championship, it's time to take a note from the local baseball and football teams because playing for the future only results in failure in the present.

Dirk, Kobe, and LeBron Lead 2009-10 NBA MVP Candidates

John Lorge — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 09:52:19 -0500

It's never too early to start talking about the most debated award in all of pro sports, that's right I'm talking about the NBA MVP Award. Last week I broke down what it takes to win the NBA MVP, so we have a baseline for this season and years to come. Using the MVPi stat, we are already starting to see who some of the contenders and pretenders for the award are.

Begin Slideshow

NBA Power Rankings: Lakers, Cavs, and Magic Prove Cream Rises

John Lorge — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 09:28:48 -0500

Every week, we of the NBA season, we see more and more who the real contenders are and who the pretenders are.

No more jibber-jabber this week, let’s get to the Power Rankings.

1. Los Angeles Lakers (3)—With Pau back, who can stop L.A.? Their next tough matchup is Phoenix on Dec. 6, then Cleveland on Christmas day. They should have a giant lead on the league by then.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)—Loss at our nation's capital showed this offense can get stale fast. Despite Mo Williams' poor shooting, the team has looked good as a whole.

3. Orlando Magic (5)—Rashard Lewis' return is more important for this team than the loss of Jameer Nelson. It looks like Orlando is built to beat Boston—not the other way around.

4. Dallas Mavericks (7)—They win on the road, they win at home, and if Kobe begins to pull back on the throttle now that Gasol is back, Dirk looks in-line to win the MVP.

5. Atlanta Hawks (2)—Seven game streak snapped by a Chris Paul-less Hornets? Atlanta has plenty of time to rest before Thursday's game with Orlando, where they look to make a statement on national TV.

6. Phoenix Suns (4)—Also stung by the Hornets, teams that can shoot the ball are giving them all sorts of trouble this season.

7. Denver Nuggets (8)—The 4-4 road record is a red flag for the Nuggets after their latest loss to the Clippers.

8. Boston Celtics (6)—Almost lost in OT when they visited the Knicks in NYC. Paul Pierce is the catalyst for Celtic success.

9. Milwaukee Bucks (15)—An OT loss to Dallas followed by three easy wins, Brandon Jennings is the best rookie point guard since Chris Paul—yes, he's better than Derrick Rose.

10. Portland Trail Blazers (9)—The loss of Travis Outlaw has Rip City down two dynamic wings, they are lucky depth is one of their biggest strengths.

11. Houston Rockets (11)—No team in the NBA plays more like a team, but the lack of elite talent makes it hard for Houston to win games they aren't supposed to.

12. Utah Jazz (19)—An undefeated week has Utah back in the playoff hunt. They have five home games and a trip to Minnesota in the next two weeks—all could be wins.

13. Oklahoma City Thunder (16)—Kevin Durant is playing like an All-NBA First Teamer, it will be a travesty if he doesn't earn the fans vote at forward in the All-Star Game.

14. Toronto Raptors (13)—Team didn't compete often against a tough stretch of opponents. Jose Calderon has a nice stat sheet but I'm questioning his ability to lead this team to wins.

15. Miami Heat (10)—Injuries are derailing the train in Miami; clearly this team needs help and if Pat Riley doesn't go get it, he might lose Wade.

16. Chicago Bulls (14)—John Salmons has been one of the major disappointments of the season—all of his shooting percentages are down at least 10 points from last year.

17. San Antonio Spurs (12)—Yikes! I understand Coach Pop has to worry about his team being healthy for the playoffs but at this pace they won't make them and his players are still getting injured.

18. New Orleans Hornets (22)—Nice little three game streak without Chris Paul makes you wonder just how bad Byron Scott was.

19. Sacramento Kings (18)—Four very winnable games this week but the Kings need Tyreke Evans in the lineup or they might lose all of them.

20. Indiana Pacers (17)—Just when you think Indy is turning the corner they drop games to New York and Charlotte in the same week. Troy Murphy's return hasn't been as successful as anticipated.

21. Detroit Pistons (20)—Clearly Ben Gordon was worth the money, but this team cannot stand up to the talented rosters of the NBA.

22. Los Angeles Clippers (23)—Beating Denver saves the Clippers from a plummet in the rankings. What's crazy is they could sweep their next four.

23. Charlotte Bobcats (21)—Stephen Jackson makes them better on paper but until he starts doing things on the court it was a lateral move.

24. Washington Wizards (26)—With Jamison back this team can get on track. The playoffs are not dead but they do need to get close to .500 by the All-Star break.

25. Golden State Warriors (25)—It's hard to see the Raja Bell trade making them better, right now Vladimir Radmanovic is getting way too much PT.

26. Memphis Grizzlies (27)—A.I. is officially gone and Rudy Gay is heating up. Memphis won't win a lot of games but they are beating who they should.

27. Philadelphia 76ers (24)—Sam Dalembert has packed his bags and mentally checked out; if they can get something in a trade it will help Philly refocus.

28. New York Knicks (28)—Had they lost to Jersey I would have cemented them at the bottom of the Association, 2010 better be worth it.

29. Minnesota Timberwolves (29)—Back-to-back double-doubles for Al Jefferson in back-to-back double-digit loses, ouch.

30. New Jersey Nets (30)—On the bright side Devin Harris is back, just in time for their Western Conference road trip.

Follow me on Twitter @JohnLorge .

NBA MVP Award: What It Takes To Win the Maurice Podoloff Trophy

John Lorge — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:15:05 -0500

What does it take to win the NBA's MVP Award? Heart. Grit. Determination.

Every winner of the award has displayed the same immeasurable attributes throughout the coarse of the year, but those adjectives cannot be quantified—or can they?

Since Bob Pettit won the first NBA MVP Award in 1956 we have seen winners as tall as 7-foot-2 (Kareem Abdual-Jabbar), and some who've struggled to hit 6-foot (Allen Iverson). We've had once-in-a-generation athletes (Julius Erving, Michael Jordan, LeBron James), and some of the most skilled players to ever pick up a basketball (Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, and Steve Nash).

There are similarities and differences all throughout the list but there is one thing that shines through in all 28 winners of the award, and that is they are winners.

Using the last 20 winners (from Magic in 1990 to LeBron in 2009), I have compiled the data to determine what it takes to win the NBA MVP Award. Let's take a closer look.

You Must Win Games To Win The Award

Everyone wants to point at points when picking the MVP, but it's not about points, it's about wins. Basketball is a team sport and the goal is to win games, if your team isn't winning games, you have no real value.

The lack of winning is the reason Dwyane Wade had no chance of coming away with the award last season and the reason Kobe Bryant didn't deserve it in 2006.

Of the 20 MVP seasons I looked at all but three winners played for teams who won more than 70 percent of their games (see lest below). That doesn't mean you can't be the runner-up if your team is floating just above .500, but it does mean you shouldn't expect to win the hardware.

OK, So Points Do Matter

I lied when I said the MVP isn't about points (or stats) because it is, but it’s about how your stats convert to wins.

To integrate wins and losses into a player's statistical production I have created the MVP Index, or what I call the MVPi. To calculate the MVPi you look at the three major stat categories (points, rebounds, and assists) as well as the player's losing percentage, here is the formula:

[(PPG+RPG+APG) X 82 - (PPG+RPG+APG) X Games Missed ] / [82 X (1 - Winning Percentage)]

*Karl Malone's 1999 MVPi was adjusted for an 82 game season.

The two things that will hurt your MVPi the most are missing games, and more importantly, losing games.

Some would argue that steals, blocks, and threes should be accounted for or that assists should earn a higher value. The defensive stats tend to even out amongst elite players, threes are great when you need them but it has never been a prerequisite for MVPs, and if assists had more value we would see more point guards winning the award.

The top MVPi doesn't always win the award however, and this is because it matters how much better your team is than other teams and how much more valuable you are to your team than the second or third best player on your team.

Championships Matter

Ultimately you have the best chance of winning the award if you have the best record in the NBA, but having the best record in your conference goes a long way, and having the best record in your division is a must.

Over the past 20 years all 20 winners won their division, 17 won their conference, 12 had the NBA's best record during the regular season. Although it doesn't come into consideration during voting, seven of the 20 went on to win the title—Michael Jordan accounts for four of the seven.

In 1999 the Utah Jazz ties the San Antonio Spurs for the Midwest Division when Karl Malone won the MVP in the lockout-shortened season. The Jazz also happened to tie the Spurs for the best record in the NBA that year.

The 1994 and 1995 MVP races are a perfect indicator of how championships come into play. David Robinson statistically had a better season in 1993-94 than he did in 1994-95, on top of that his Spurs beat Hakeem Olajuwon's Rockets three of four times. With the absence of Jordan there was no question who the two best players in the NBA were, and they were in the same division.

Houston went on to win the Division in 1994, they didn't win the Western Conference but Olajuwon went on to win the MVP. In 1995 Robinson went home with the award with lesser stats but the most wins in the NBA.

Outliers

If you look at the bottom of the MVPi list you will see the three lowest scores belong to Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, and once again, Steve Nash.

It's easy to see why people have such a problem with Nash winning the award twice, but there is some explanation. The voters favor little men.

Nash and Iverson are the two shortest winners since Bob Cousy took home the second ever NBA MVP in 1957. While Nash's output was the lowest of anyone you also have to consider that Iverson missed 11 games (13.4 percent) during the 2000-01 season. Both of these guys got a boost from the voters.

To their defense they did win their division, Iverson led the Sixers to the best record in the East, and in 2005 Nash's Suns had the best record in the NBA.

In 2006 the Suns only won their conference but picking the MVP was picking your poison, the division winners were New Jersey, Detroit, Miami, Denver, San Antonio, and Phoenix. You can try to argue Dwyane Wade was the pick but with a 63.4 winning percentage his MVPi was at 99.1, only 4.5 points higher than Nash.

Conclusion

When you are talking about MVP candidates, you must narrow your list by potential division winners and teams winning more than 65 percent of their games (preferably 70 percent). Only then are you talking sensibly about who can win the Maurice Podoloff Trophy.

Follow me on Twitter @JohnLorge .

Is Andrew Luck the Most Sure Thing NFL QB Prospect Since Peyton Manning?

John Lorge — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:55:30 -0500

Stanford's redshirt freshman QB Andrew Luck is making a good argument for the title "best quarterback in the country." After navigating the Cardinal to a 55-21 road win over USC, in which Luck threw for two TDs and ran for one with no interceptions, Luck is starting to hit the national spotlight—and he deserves it.

Luck has completed 58 percent of his passes (138-238), amassing 2,220 yards and 13 TDs with only three interceptions through 10 games. He has also displayed good athleticism, both in the pocket (six sacks) and the open field (288 yards, two TDs).

Stanford's leader is senior running back Toby Gerhart, a Doak Walker finalist and Heisman dark horse, but without the strong play of Luck the Cardinal wouldn't be 7-3, including a perfect 5-0 at home, as they host Cal this Saturday in a NorCal rivalry.

No other member of the 2013 NFL Draft class is close to touching Luck's 151.8 QB rating (Matt Barkley's is 132.2), and the member of Luck's 2008 high school class playing closest to his level is Missouri sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert with a 139.76 QB rating.

The present is bright but the future is blinding for Luck, who is looking like the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning—maybe even if he comes out before the 2013 draft (Luck will be eligible in 2011).

Before dissecting Luck's feet and arm, first you need to get inside his head. Andrew Luck is smart, Stanford smart—he was valedictorian of Houston's Stratford High School in 2008 where he amassed 7,139 passing yards and 53 TDs on the field.

Luck has had a different pedigree than most smart kids with excellent physical attributes. His father Oliver Luck is the president and general manager of the Houston Dynamo—a non-traditional career path for a former Houston Oilers QB.

Much like his son, Oliver was a standout on the field and in the classroom; the two-time Academic All-American and Rhodes Scholar finalist graduated magna cum laude from West Virginia before backing up Warren Moon for a majority of his NFL career.

While Oliver Luck didn't have the football career of Archie Manning, he was still a professional quarterback, and, as a father, could offer his son rare gems of knowledge that the average aspiring QB is not privvy to.

Now that Andrew Luck is out from under his father's wing, he couldn't have a better coach and mentor than Jim Harbaugh, who quarterbacked in the NFL from 1987 to 2001.

I think it's safe to say that when Luck enters the NFL Draft he will wow in interviews, ace whiteboard sessions, and dominate the Wonderlic.

At 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, Luck—who reportedly put 20 pounds on his frame since arriving to Palo Alto in 2008—has the prototypical height and bulk you look for in a QB prospect.

Unlike prospects in shotgun spread systems such as Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy, who never step foot under center, Luck is running a pro-style offense that gives scouts a great look at his three, five, and seven step drops and play action fakes.

When dropping, Luck could do a better job of scanning the field and not staring down his target, but his footwork is clean, he keeps a good strong base, and he has a good pop off his back foot. Stepping into his throws, Luck displays above average arm strength—he doesn't have a rare arm like former Cardinal John Elway but it is better than that of another former Cardinal, Trent Edwards.

Even when pressured, Luck will stand in the pocket, delivering throws when contacted. Luck's willingness to face pressure has led to some hits Harbaugh would prefer he'd not take, and they can result in fumbles.

If he sees space in front of him he makes a quick decision to tuck and run and overall he has very good pocket presence, especially for a freshman.

When Luck throws he seems to have a condensed arm action, and it is something scouts will nitpick as he enters the NFL. The throwing motion still comes over the top, and when Luck is throwing on the run, as he commonly does off play actions in Stanford's scheme, he seems to emphasize the over-the-top throwing motion.

With Gerhart being the undisputed leader of Stanford's O, Luck can still grow leaps and bounds in terms of on-field leadership, but he already displays confidence in front of his teammates and commands the huddle.

Some feel a comparison to Manning is premature for Luck, but if he takes the Manning path and develops through his senior year, he projects to be a No. 1 overall pick and instant NFL starter.

Top Five QB Prospects Based On Potential

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, 2013—Much of the QB position is played before the snap. Luck has the brain for that and the tools to finish those reads.

2. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas, 2012—Outstanding size, very good at avoiding turnovers, and a live arm, but Bobby Petrino's system hasn't been NFL friendly.

3. Jake Locker, Washington, 2011—One more year of school will be best. Aside from the occasional wild pitch he has it all.

4. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, 2011—Will be best-off not playing until the 2011 season or later. If he plays for a team with a line he can be great.

5. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame, 2011—Very accurate and has shown good arm strength. His two receivers are better than anyone on the four teams above.

Follow me on Twitter @JohnLorge.

College Football's All-Disappointment Team Has the NFL Worried

John Lorge — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 09:39:01 -0500

Growing up, the last thing you wanted to hear is that someone is disappointed in you. College Football’s All-Disappointment Team has fans saddened, coaches let down, and NFL scouts dissatisfied.

In order to make the team, you must be draft eligible, only those with deserved expectations can deliver an upsetting performance worth pointing out on this list. On the team you will see a mix of injuries, suspensions, and poor play.

I wish all of these players well and hope they can have success in the NFL, but ultimately 2009 was a step in the wrong direction.

Offense

QB: Sam Bradford, Oklahoma — This season Bradford did nothing to show NFL scouts that he can throw under pressure or take a hit. It may be years before we see him in a competitive (non-exhibition) situation again.

QB: Jevan Snead, Mississippi — After leading Ole' Miss back into relevance, maybe Snead was given too much credit and his former teammates (who are now in the NFL) weren't getting enough of it. Not only is Snead only completing 52.9 percent of his passes, he doesn't show fiery leadership skills in the huddle.

RB: LaGarrette Blount, Oregon — The ability to react without thinking that makes Blount a devastating rusher on the field and is the same ability that brought a whole new meaning to the term "getting Blounted." His talent warrants a tryout from an NFL team, but many will wonder if he will have another type of warrant in his future.

RB: Charles Scott, LSU — Coming off a year where Scott scored 18 TDs, there were big expectations for his senior season in the bayou. He is posting a career low 4.7 YPC and has only scored in two of his nine games this season, with one triple-digit rushing performance. This lackluster season may have NFL teams slating him as a talented fullback.

WR: Dez Bryant, Oklahoma St. — In the wake of a nine catch, 161 yard, two TD performance against Rice, Bryant was suspended for his relationship with Deion Sanders. After declaring he will enter for the NFL Draft, Bryant says he will be completely honest with NFL teams about anything they want to know, but this doesn’t lessen the blow for OSU fans any.

WR: Mike Williams, Syracuse — After an academic suspension in 2008, 'Cuse fans were happy to have Williams back and he was leading the Big East in receiving before he decided to pack his bags and quit the team. Williams looks like he can become a polished pro receiver, but the past few years bring up serious questions about his dedication to the game.

TE: Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma — Even if Bradford was healthy he still wouldn't have his top target Gresham, who is out for the season with knee surgery. With size and soft hands, NFL teams are still very interested, but instead of being a first-round lock, he will most likely be drafted in the second round.

OL: Ciron Black, LSU — Lazy is the first word that comes to mind when watching Black play. Even in a marquee game against Bama, he was standing straight up out of his stance and his cut blocks are sad. When motivated, Black can move people in the run game, his experience will earn him a draft pick, but he may be best suited as a guard in the NFL.

OL: Kristofer O'Dowd, USC — With all of the focus on freshman QB Matt Barkley, many failed to acknowledge that the pre-season All-American center O'Dowd dislocated his knee cap in camp. Although he has been able to play most games this season, he has not been playing at his previous level and was replaced against Oregon St. Most expect O'Dowd to return for his senior season.

OL: Kenny Alfred, Washington State — Being the best player on one of the worst teams in college football has to be rough. Leading a position group that has blocked for a 2.4 YPC and four rushing touchdowns, is downright demoralizing. Better luck in the NFL, it can't get much worse for the pre-season All Pac-10 guard.

OL: Brandon Carter, Texas Tech — After violating team rules, Carter was suspended and stripped of his captain status taking his bad boy image in the wrong direction. NFL scouts love his 6'6", 345-pound frame, but his lack of run blocking experience and Tech's extra wide splits have teams thinking there may be more gimmick here than just some face paint.

OL: Duke — The Blue Devils offensive line narrowly edges out Washington St. as the worst in the country. Their 2.14 YPC is by far the worst in the nation and to pile on, they’ve given up 27 sacks on the year. WSU has given up 20 more sacks than that, but I already called out their “star” performer.

Defense

DE: George Selvie, South Florida — For the second straight season, Selvie hasn't come close to replicating his 14-sack sophomore performance. Playing opposite of Jason Pierre-Paul, you would expect Selvie to thrive as he sees slightly less attention, but he has only recorded three sacks on the year. The year hasn't been a loss, but Selvie hasn't shown he's a first rounder in this competitive pass rusher draft.

DE: Corey Wootton, Northwestern — Wildcat fans had high hopes for the monstrous (6'7", 280) Wootton, who finished with 10 sacks last season. Through 11 games, he has only recorded three sacks and doesn't have an interception (unlike each of the past three seasons). On the positive, all of his sacks have been in the past four games.

DT: Shaunte "Boo" Robinson, Wake Forest — Coming off a year where he was a part of seven sacks, Robinson was looking to establish himself as one of the more active 4-3 tackle/3-4 end types. He leads a Wake Forest D giving up 173 rushing yards per game and even worse, Robinson only has one sack and four tackles for loss.

DT: Arthur Jones, Syracuse — After fighting back from offseason pectoral surgery, Jones was looking to play a successful and healthy senior season. The leader of the 10th-ranked Orangemen rush defense, had eight tackles for loss before incurring a season-ending knee injury. Jones expects to be back in time for the Senior Bowl, but all of these injuries will have scouts worried and he may fall out of the first round.

LB: Mark Herzlich, Boston College — For the record I am not disappointed in Herzlich. The perennial first-round pick was diagnosed with Ewing's sarcoma, a rare form of bone cancer and is out for the entire year. As of late September, he was announced cancer-free and will return to the team in 2010. He is a truly remarkable story.

LB: Martez Wilson, Illinois — No position on defense is more physically taxing than linebacker, just ask Illini-stud LB Martez Wilson who herniated a disc in his neck in the team's opener against Missouri. Hopefully the preseason All-American can regain that form and return to the field safely.

LB: Dekoda Watson, Florida St. — No player was more impressive to start the season than Watson, recording 4.5 sacks in the Seminoles first two games and since then, the closest he has got to the QB is two pressures. Making things worse, Watson is on a defense giving up 193 rushing yards per game and he has been hampered by a elbow injury that has been with him for more than a year. NFL teams could use him as a blitzing backer, but he doesn't look like the next great FSU product.

CB: Cornelius Brown, UTEP — The preseason All-Conference USA corner leads the 104th-best pass defense of 120 teams. Brown has been able to break up seven passes this year, but has failed to intercept any after snagging seven in the past two seasons.

CB: Traye Simmons, Minnesota — Nothing is more demoralizing for a corner than being benched after having a TD scored on you and that is the exact string of events that happened to Simmions in the Northwestern game. His four interceptions and 14 pass breakups in 2008 were a pleasant surprise to the Golden Gophers, but that production has not been matched so far in 2009.

FS: Taylor Mays, USC — It's safe to say that the bar has been set very high for Mays, and quite frankly he's not hurdling over it like his physical tools suggest he can. The 2009 version of USC's D is much worse than previous years, so it's no surprise Mays has posted career tackle numbers, but he only has one interception and one pass breakup on the year and hasn't recorded a tackle behind the line of scrimmage. It will be hard for Mays to slip out of the top 10, but he's doing everything he can to make that happen.

SS: Jordan Lake, Baylor — After a stellar year where Lake recorded three interceptions, two forced fumbles, seven passes defensed, and 97 total tackles (66 solo), there were high expectations for his senior year. Lake is not on pace to hit any of those marks again and has only broken up one pass without any interceptions. Lake was really counting on a stat-filled year to solidify himself as a mid-to-late-round pick, now that status is in jeopardy.

Follow me on Twitter @JohnLorge.

Larry Johnson To Sign with Cincinnati Bengals: Fantasy Football Impact

John Lorge — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 17:14:14 -0500

Ten weeks deep into the fantasy football season the waiver wire starts looking like a graveyard, especially when looking for running backs.

When you push that little "add" button most wires will auto-sort by preseason rankings, and there sits Larry Johnson with that tiny red NA next to his name.

Monday afternoon Larry Johnson will quickly have those two letters removed when he signs with the AFC Central leading Cincinnati Bengals, who open another troubled player to their roster with open arms.

The Bengals star running back Cedric Benson , who has a rap sheet long enough to match his list of on-field accomplishments, strained his hip against Pittsburgh.

While he should start this week, it does create concern at the position.

All reports are that Johnson is being brought in as an insurance policy, someone who is being brought in as the fourth back on the roster, and someone who will need to work his way up from the bottom if he wants a shot at PT.

Child Please. Cincinnati is the home of second chances, the best way to get the coaches attention is to wind up in the local police report. I think it would be foolish to assume the Bengals are bringing in a player like Johnson to hold a dummy in practice.

Benson is on pace to finish with over 1,600 total yards on the year, he is nine carries away from his career high, and has already broke career rushing high. Nobody is saying Benson is a soft runner, but this is the first time his body has had to take the punishment of a full NFL season and it is starting to show.

Rookie RB Bernard Scott has big play potential, but the scat back is only averaging 3.3 YPC on the year. Briand Leonard has established himself in the passing game, but he will never develop into the rusher some though he would.

The Bengals need to be able to lean on teams late in the game via the run, and adding another big bruising back like Johnson into the mix will allow them to put teams away and bleed clock. A hungry Johnson on a winning team is also something we haven't seen in a long time, I expect him to adapt quickly to the Bengals locker room and their mentality of winning.

This season we've seen Braylon Edwards come in and catch a TD a week after being traded. We saw Michael Crabtree quickly become San Francisco's No. 1 target. It isn't easy to get up to speed in the NFL, but it isn't impossible either—when it comes down to it football players will make football plays.

If you are in a deep league or one with lots of flex spots Johnson becomes a worthwhile add. He isn't a speed back, but he is capable of breaking off giant chucks of yardage and finishing with TDs.

If you are in a standard league he is a fringe add depending on the hand injuries have dealt you and your overall depth at the RB position.

Keep in mind the Bengals play Detroit in Week 13, San Diego in Week 15, and Kansas City (LJ's former team) in Week 16. Even for a backup those are good matchups.

Stephen Jackson Traded to Bobcats for Raja Bell: NBA Fantasy Basketball Impact

John Lorge — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 11:56:11 -0500

It is no surprise that the Golden State Warriors were the first team to make a major deal this season, trading the disgruntled Stephen Jackson (and Acie Law) to the Charlotte Bobcats for Raja Bell and Vladimir Radmanovic.

Charlotte fans have to be happy; while they don't really need Law, the addition of Jackson gives them a big wing who can help this team score some points with his shooting and his ability to create for others.

If you're a Warriors fan (and I'm sorry if you are), another shooting guard and a player who thinks he's a shooting guard isn't exactly what the team needs.

This may not be the final move either team makes this season, but it will impact your fantasy basketball season. Let's take a closer look.

Charlotte Bobcats

Going from the highest-scoring team in the NBA to the lowest-scoring team usually doesn't turn out well from a fantasy basketball perspective, but Jackson owners need to remain optimistic about the move.

This season Jackson was playing six fewer minutes per game than each of the last two seasons, and it impacted his scoring by four points. All of the turmoil in the East Bay was reflected in his free-throw and three-point percentages, and Jackson was simply not hitting his potential.

The Bobcats will have to decide if they want to go big with their lineup (starting Jackson at shooting guard and leaving Gerald Wallace at small forward), or if they want to move Wallace to the power forward, which would put Boris Diaw on the bench in order to start second-year combo guard D.J. Augustin or rookie Gerald Henderson at the two.

Overall, Jackson is a better basketball player than Bell. His ability to play the two or the three means he should play mid-30s minutes, and in that time he will produce a high-teens scoring average. Jackson focuses on defense, so you can trust he will earn steals, and he is one of the most underrated passing wings in the NBA.

It seems like coach Larry Brown isn't ready to play Gerald Henderson big minutes, and this should open the door for Augustin to play over 20 minutes per game, something he hasn't done since Nov. 6.

There is no need to sell any Bobcats because of the move. If you are in a deep league, Augustin should become relevant—maybe even Henderson too. If there is an owner in your league disappointed in Jackson's numbers, take him at a discount, because he is going to a team that will need him to win games.

Golden State Warriors

Although Raja Bell does like to shoot the three (something he will be allowed to do freely in Oakland), his size and defense give Golden State two things they didn't have at shooting guard. The problem is the Warriors have too many guys who can play the position to begin with.

The starting backcourt of Steph Curry and Monta Ellis has been a failed experiment in GS to date, and while Anthony Morrow is an impressive shooter, he doesn't have the all-around game of Bell.

As long as Bell can avoid injuries, he should continue to play over 30 minutes per game and will get more attempts in that time with the increased pace of the game, giving him the potential to average over 15 points for the first time in his career.

Monta Ellis owners shouldn't worry about the move, as he will continue to be the driving force of the Warriors offense. If you own Morrow, it is primarily for threes; he may take a hit in overall scoring, but he will still get his looks when in the game.

Role player Kelenna Azubuike would have earned more playing time with the trade but a patella injury has him sidelined indefinitely. In Azubuike and Jackson's place Corey Maggette should enter the starting role and be a start-worth fantasy player, until he gets hurt.

Now that Jackson is gone, the Warriors will need Anthony Randolph to do even more, and I wouldn't be surprised if he enters the starting lineup soon, as long as he can avoid injuries.

This move doesn't look good for Morrow or Curry owners, but Randolph is a guy worth getting, as is Maggette. Bell has a relatively low price tag; he isn't a stellar fantasy performer, but he's a nice addition if you are looking for a shooting guard.

NBA Power Rankings: Cavs and Hawks Lead the Way in the NBA

John Lorge — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 09:49:46 -0500

There are two things that can make a good NBA team falter throughout the season, age and injuries.

At the 10-game mark, we are starting to see a consistent effort from the younger and deeper teams in the NBA while the ones relying on the elderly can't perform every night.

Here's your Power Rankings three weeks deep in the season:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (9) - New lineups have the Cavs riding high, they are in a great position to win their next six, making it 10 straight.

2. Atlanta Hawks (8) - Going into Boston and winning by 11 makes a statement and the rest of the NBA has taken notice.

3. Los Angeles Lakers (1) - Dropping the second of a back to back in Denver after dismantling Phoenix isn't enough to drop the Lakers, but losing at home to Houston is.

4. Phoenix Suns (4) - So we know the Lakers are better than them, but that could be said for 28 other teams right now, too.

5. Orlando Magic (3) - Rashard Lewis will have two games to get in rhythm before heading into Boston, and yes, I think Orlando will come out on top.

6. Boston Celtics (2) - This team will be tough to beat in a series but recently they've lacked focused and now teams are gunning for them.

7. Dallas Mavericks (7) - Well Josh Howard, it was nice to have you around for a while but I don't think the Mavs can crack the top five without you.

8. Denver Nuggets (6) - After splitting on their six game Eastern Conference road trip, the blowout of LA showed Denver still has some heart.

9. Portland Trail Blazers (11) - The six-game streak feels good but those six teams have about twice as many losses than wins on the season.

10. Miami Heat (5) - Loss to the Cavs wasn't a major surprise but the one point win over NJ and recent injuries have the Heat on the ropes.

11. Houston Rockets (10) - Teams have quit underestimating the Rockets, it can be a little different coming in the favorite and I'm not sure this team has adjusted but they still thrive in an underdog role, just ask LA.

12. San Antonio Spurs (12) - Starting the season 0-3 on the road is an example of how age is impacting this team.

13. Toronto Raptors (13) - If the starting five can remain healthy the Raptors will start surprising teams as the season wears on.

14. Chicago Bulls (14) - They aren't impressing anyone but just getting it done will get them to the playoffs.

15. Milwaukee Bucks (23) - Only played two games last week but Brandon Jennings came away with 87 points, their D is also surprisingly good.

16. Oklahoma City Thunder (15) - Inconsistent play leads to big wins (Orlando & San Antonio) and big let downs (Sacramento & LAC).

17. Indiana Pacers (21) - Four straight including a beat-down in Boston, Indy should take two more before hosting Cleveland on Friday.

18. Sacramento Kings (25) - Since Kevin Martin went down the Kings are 4-0, maybe Tyreke Evans is better suited to play the two--or at least get the shots like he is.

19. Utah Jazz (16) - This team has some fight but they aren't all clicking at the same time, for their sake I hope this is the low point of the season.

20. Detroit Pistons (17) - The foundation is set but it looks like Detroit still has a way to go in the rebuilding process.

21. Charlotte Bobcats (20) - No team that has this good of D plays this bad of O, Larry Brown needs should make a move to get Rip and Tayshaun.

22. New Orleans Hornets (19) - Can anyone explain to me how Jeff Bower is a better option than Byron Scott? I will pay $100 bucks to anyone who can make this make sense.

23. Los Angeles Clippers (22) - Chris Kaman has been the team's leading scorer in five straight, the Clippers need to trade him for the future because this season is clearly not going to be "the one."

24. Philadelphia 76ers (18) - Wins have came against the NBA's absolute worst teams, on the positive they're winning them.

25. Golden State Warriors (26) - With all of their scorers they can put away a bad team in a hurry but anyone with a concept of defense takes them out with ease.

26. Washington Wizards (24) - Have yet to win on the month, this is a perfect example of why making big moves in the summer doesn't always been big success.

27. Memphis Grizzlies (27) - Down goes Thabeet, Z-Ro continues to have his one-of-a-kind impact on his teammates.

28. New York Knicks (28) - Sure they lack talent but what's more disappointing is the lack of heart, NY doesn't even have a pick this year to lose for.

29. Minnesota Timberwolves (29) - Let's be honest, the T-Wolves are a last second shot away from the bottom of the league and I can't wait till NJ wins so I can put Minnesota there.

30. New Jersey Nets (30) - So close on that first W, put all of your eggs in one basket and get NY on Saturday at home before the West Coast road trip.

Follow me on Twitter @JohnLorge .

Cleveland Cavaliers Exposing Holes in Florida's Finest

John Lorge — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 10:56:22 -0500

In back-to-back games on back-to-back nights, LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers bested their opponents by a total of 16 points. Considering the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic had a combined record of 12-3 entering the contests, and both games were in the state of Florida, it's quite an accomplishment.

So what gives? How did Orlando and Miami, ranked third and fifth respectively in this week's power rankings (well above the Cavs at No. 9), get handled by a 4-3 team coming off a four day break?

Simply put, the Cavs are built to win, which is why I had them as my top Eastern Conference team entering the season.

Over the first two weeks of the season NBA fans were obsessed with the Cavs' terrible start, as the team tried to integrate a Hall of Fame center and new role players into the mix. Fans were also riding high on the heat wave coming from the central-south Florida area.

Now that the teams are hitting their stride, it is becoming apparent that the Cavs are better than they looked, but more importantly, Miami and Orlando are not as impressive as some might have thought.

Superman's Kryptonite

In the Magic's three losses Dwight Howard has averaged 27 minutes and five fouls per game. Right now Orlando has an impressive offense; they have one of the world's rarest athletes in the middle and a plethora of talented shooters on the wing, but when their centerpiece hits the bench (and the supremely overrated Marcin Gortat enters the game), those perimeter shots get a lot harder.

It sounds obvious, but the key to beating the Magic is to get Howard into foul trouble early, which is exactly what Shaq did on Wednesday night.

Howard is a hyperactive defender, he is consumed with making plays— and his ability to make them keeps hopeful scorers as far away from his outstretched arms as possible.

In order to get Howard out of the game you have to take the ball right at him; he may win some of these battles but the fouls will rack up quicker than the blocked shots, and he will either have to play a condensed form of defense or he will be on the pine.

Right now many are scrolling down to the comments section to tell me about how deep this team is and how it doesn't need Dwight to win. It's not true.

I do agree that Orlando has the most talented roster in the NBA. The Magic have great size and eight guys with the green light to gun. Stan Van Gundy’s offense is built to either get a dunk from Howard or hoist a three, but are the Magic too deep?

With all of the shooters on the roster, and considering they've been at least two players short every game, will all of these snipers get itchy trigger fingers in an attempt to show the coaches they are the ones who deserve to be on the floor?

When Howard comes out of the game and the defense extends, it causes trouble for the Magic. Moreover, without Howard this team, which is used to cementing its feet outside the three point line, lacks offensive creativity— despite their name. The players take their turns trying to single-handedly bring the team back and the lack of ball movement leads to a disappointing finish.

Not So Hot

Having watched a majority of the Heat's games this year one thing is for certain: Dwyane Wade is really good. We already knew that, though, from his 30.2 points, 7.5 assists, and 5.0 rebounds per game from a year ago to go along with ridiculous defensive numbers.

Setting up a game plan to stop Wade is a lost cause; he's quicker than a big defender and bigger than a quick defender— just write him off for 30-5-5 and move on to the other four players on the court.

After their starting one-plus-four, the Heat are the least deep team looking to make the playoffs (not to say their starting five is perfect). I still got love for Udonis Haslem, but the next four of Daequan Cook, Carlos Arroyo, Joel Anthony, and Dorell Wright will not be feared by anyone in the league.

The Heat win games through defensive intensity, so they can get along without a legitimate scorer on the second line most of the time, but against the more talented teams in the NBA the starting five has to play extended minutes to compete. This wears them down throughout the game and it may break them down over the season.

On Thursday night Quentin Richardson took a blow to the chest from Shaq, causing him to miss extended time, and it put the Heat in a tough position because he is their only practical matchup for LeBron James.

It is no secret that Miami is looking for a star to pair with Wade in 2010, but it needs to add several players if it wants to make this team a title contender.

2010 NFL Mock Draft: November's Rough Draft

John Lorge — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 09:29:36 -0500

It's never too early for a mock NFL Draft in my eyes, which is why I am unveiling my "rough draft" for 2010 in November.

The draft order is starting to shape up and there are even a few juniors putting their names in the mix. To remove (or increase) speculation I am putting all draft-eligible players in the pool.

All of the talent on the board led to a few players getting a first round shaft, but that's how the mock draft goes.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

The Bucs need a lot of help in a lot of places, but on the bright side they have their QB of the future. Although bulking the O-line would be nice, nothing helps a young QB win games like a competitive defense—something Tampa does not have right now.

Suh has a great combination of playmaking skills and consistency. He isn't surrounded by All-Americans to deflect attention, which makes what he's doing all the more impressive. Suh could be even more successful than Warren Sapp was for Tampa.

The Monte Kiffin pipeline will have the Bucs looking at Eric Berry, but Suh will have a chance to impact more plays, especially in the run game, and I'm not sure the NFL is ready for a safety as the top pick.

2. Cleveland Browns: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

The draft situation in Cleveland is one of the hardest to predict right now because of all of the uncertainty surrounding the decision makers. If Eric Mangini is still around, there is a strong chance they would try to trade down here for someone looking to grab their top QB prospect.

The Browns could draft a QB, but I think if Brady Quinn had a real team around him he could be a competent NFL starter. In other words that's not their biggest need.

Berry is a dynamic playmaker and he will add an instant spark to the Browns' defense. An innovative defensive coordinator will be able to move him all around the field on defense, mixing the best of Bob Sanders and Ed Reed.

3. Detroit Lions: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

The Lions still need a lot of help in a lot of areas. They have spent the last three years investing in a WR, RB, and QB—now it's time to protect them.

Okung projects to be a stud left tackle, he has elite size and thrives in pro-pass situations. Scouts have been impressed with his work ethic and how he finishes off blocks.

If the Lions want to wait to upgrade their O-line, they could go for either Carlos Dunlap or Gerald McCoy to add a playmaker to their defense, but they looked at tackles hard last year and I anticipate them drafting one in 2010.

4. St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

This may be a shocker to many, and for the record I have Jake Locker as my top QB prospect, but I can see Bradford going first, and he is still the top guy for many scouts.

The Rams are in a situation where they can bring up a QB prospect behind Marc Bulger for a year or two, and whoever drafts Bradford should not risk starting him as a rookie after his season-ending shoulder injury.

The Rams are grooming Jason Smith on the line, and by the time Bradford starts they should have enough around him, and in front of him, that he won't be struggling just to earn first downs.

It seems like a high pick to draft a non-starter, especially with all of the defensive talent, but the Rams don't look to be competitive for a few years anyways.

5. Oakland Raiders: Taylor Mays, S, USC

I made jokes about Al Davis drafting Darrius Heyward-Bey at seven last year because of his awesome physical attributes—I've learned my lesson.

Until Mays runs his 40 at the combine I will have him going to the Raiders and if he runs better than a 4.45, I will keep him in the spot.

The only problem with the pick is that it might actually help the Raiders. I expect Mays to be much more active in the NFL than he is for USC this season because he will be asked to do more than play centerfield. This is a rare athlete and he projects to be a Pro Bowler for many years to come.

6. Washington Redskins: Jake Locker, QB, Washington

I am under the impression that the Redskins want to win a Super Bowl—they spend big money and do what they can to upgrade their roster every year in terms of talent.

I am also becoming convinced that Jason Campbell will not be re-signed after this year. If you produce the way he has in a contract season there is no way you're someone who will lead your team past the NFL's elite.

Of all of the QB prospects Locker is the one who will be able to do the most with the least talent. His ability to use his legs will produce key first downs and he has displayed elite arm strength and accuracy this season.

The Skins could also use a left tackle to replace Chris Samuels, but there doesn't seem to be a qualified candidate at this point in the draft. I anticipate a new coach in Washington—maybe Jon Gruden—any he will want a QB he can groom into the franchise leader.

7. Tennessee Titans: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

The Titans didn't make many changes between 2008 and 2009 but their records couldn't be more different. The absence of Albert Haynesworth shows how important an dominant defense tackle is, and the Titans can quickly fill that need by drafting McCoy.

Using the pick on Dunlap would be good too because of their inability to get to the quarterback this season, but the Titans need a player who can demand a double team to free up the outside rush.

McCoy's ability to make active plays on the defensive line shouldn't be overlooked either.

8. Kansas City Chiefs: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama

KC's defense is terrible and GM Scott Pioli knows that defense wins championships. Assuming both elite safeties are off the board, the pick comes down to McClain, CB Joe Haden, and NT Terrance Cody.

The reason they will opt for McClain is because he can have the most impact on the most plays. Cody looks like a two-down player and Haden won't do much to help the Chiefs improve their rush defense.

McClain is a big, athletic playmaker who will have racked up over 250 career tackles by the time his junior season his over. At 6'4", his ability to intercept passes and get to the quarterback make him ideal for any defense looking for the total package at the linebacker position.

9. Buffalo Bills: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

Is it time to name the Trent Edwards era a failure yet?

If the Bills want to continue with their no-huddle offense they will need a quarterback who can make all the throws. As a bonus, Clausen has been very effective in the no-huddle. While his mobility is an issue, he does a very good job of surveying the field.

If the Bills are not interested in investing in a QB this early in the draft, a left tackle like Bryan Bulaga would be a great fit—and depending on how many QBs leave school, he could be the Bills' best option.

10. San Francisco (From Carolina): Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

The defensive-minded 49ers should be thrilled if Dunlap falls this far in the draft. They have been competitive in sacks this season but a player like Dunlap or a hybrid pass rusher could put them with the league's elite.

In the 3-4, Dunlap will lineup primarily in the five-technique, and he could potentially develop as a Richard Seymour-type player at that position.

The Niners could use a player who is going to help them shut down the pass, but getting pressure on the quarterback could have as big an impact as putting a rookie corner on an island.

11. Seattle Seahawks: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

It has been painful to watch the offensive line of the Seahawks this season and with Walter Jones' career coming to an end, it's time they draft a player who can replace him at left tackle.

Williams has played both right and left tackle while at Oklahoma, and he is ready to start for the Seahawks today. Offensive coordinator Gregg Knapp likes to control the game with the run, and Williams has the mean streak in the run-game that is common in Sooner linemen.

12. Jacksonville Jaguars: Joe Haden, CB, Florida

To say the Jags have struggled against pass this year is an understatement. Injuries and a lack of talent have led to one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.

With good size (5'11", 190) and blazing speed, Haden can be effective in one-on-one matchups. He does not gamble as much as some prospects, which is why his six INTs in three seasons aren't eye-popping. But he rarely makes a mistake and is effective in run support.

13. Miami Dolphins: Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida

Although the eye-gouge is a blemish on his resume, the personnel decisions of the Miami Dolphins have me thinking they will have no problem adding an elite defender like Spikes.

Not only is Spikes equally impressive against the pass as he is the run, his three touchdowns on five career interceptions are especially attractive to NFL clubs.

After drafting some very good corners last year, the 'Phins will address their front seven in the draft. A hybrid rusher or run-stuffing defensive lineman would also fit their needs, but teaming Spikes with former-Gator Channing Crowder would be a devastating duo in the middle.

14. San Francisco 49ers: Jerry Hughes, DE/LB, TCU

Many thought the Niners would add an outside pass rusher in last year's draft but they opted against it. Can they really go two years without adding a speed rusher?

It doesn't look like Manny Lawson will ever develop into an elite edge guy, and Hughes could tally more sacks than any player in the 2010 Draft by the time it's all said and done.

As a junior, Hughes posted 15 sacks and two interceptions, and despite added attention this year, he has recorded nine sacks in nine games. He isn't as tall as most of the elite hybrid prospects, but that 6'2" range has been a functional size for many Pro-Bowlers at his projected position.

15. Houston Texans: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida St.

The Texans' secondary has more question marks than any other position group on their team.

Top corner Dunta Robinson was franchised this year, but he is looking for a big contract and is unhappy with his current situation. To make things worse, the Texans can't find a legitimate corner to start opposite of Robinson, let alone replace him.

Much like Dunta, Patrick Robinson is a speedster and a ball hawk. After a six interception sophomore campaign, teams have been avoiding him as much as possible.

Although they have needs, the Texans seem like a team that will entertain a trade because of their current salary cap situation.

16. Denver Broncos (From Chicago): Terrence Cody, NT, Alabama

Many scouts are dogging on Cody because he is a two-down player and is considered overweight—even by NFL standards. I believe that 16 is the absolute floor for Cody, but because of how low scouts are on him I have him sliding in the draft much further than his big board position.

Elite rush defenses need a monstrous nose tackle to anchor them and Cody cannot be moved by one man. Even if he only plays two out of every three downs, you can be assured they will be with maximum effort.

On top of clogging the middle, Cody uses his long arms to swat at pass attempts and he is a game-changer on special teams with his ability to block kicks.

After dominating Senior Bowl practices, I think it will be hard to keep Cody outside of the top 10.

17. Green Bay Packers: C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

After incurring a few injuries to the offensive line, my initial thought was the Packers needed to add depth there, but those injuries were temporary and the lack of a playmaker in the backfield is still an issue for Green Bay.

The last time the Packers had a kick return for touchdown was 2000. This season Spiller has returned three kicks and a punt for touchdown. His kickoff skills alone are worth drafting, but Spiller is equally devastating as a rusher and receiver.

Spiller isn't currently being projected as an every down back, which can make his draft position difficult to project, but teams would be foolish to pass on him, especially as the league moves towards more shared backfields.

18. San Diego Chargers: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

The Chargers would love if they could get their hands on a nose like Cody, but he should be gone by the time they hit the clock. Their next major concern is protecting Philip Rivers.

Bulaga is a major reason why the Hawkeyes have overachieved this season and he continues a long line of elite Big Ten tackles.

Although he's a junior, Bulaga appears strong enough to succeed at the point of attack in the NFL, and he is clearly athletic enough to fit in anywhere on the offensive line.

19. Atlanta Falcons: Navorro Bowman, LB, Penn St.

The Falcons have struggles against the pass this season, but they have a young secondary that should progress from last year to this. On top of that Bowman's value is hard to pass at this point in the draft.

As a sophomore Bowman cracked the 100-tackle mark and his 11 tackle, one INT, one sack game against Michigan is one of the most impressive defensive performances of the college season.

If a corner or safety prospect improves his stock, he could be the man for the Falcons, and you can never have too many quality defensive linemen, but Bowman looks like he would have a bigger impact than any of those prospects on the board.

20. New York Jets: Sergio Kindle, DE/LB, Texas

Time is ticking for Vernon Gholston to produce, and with the Jets becoming serious contenders, they aren't going to sit around and wait.

I expect NY to take their top outside-rush prospect in the first round, but they could also target a down lineman.

Kindle has been as productive as his former teammate Brian Orakpo, but he is built in a slightly different mold. As a taller and leaner player, Kindle fits as more of a speed rusher, but he has a good nose for the run and also can play the pass in limited situations.

21. Baltimore Ravens: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St.

The Ravens have crashed and burned with first round receivers in the past, but if they can get the top WR prospect in the first round, it will be hard to pass.

During the draft I doubt many will have a problem with Bryant's suspension, and his rare blend of size and speed make him a tough matchup.

Joe Flacco will need a new go-to receiver down field once Derrick Mason decides to hang up his spikes, and the NCAA has been the only thing to stop Bryant in a while.

22. Dallas Cowboys: Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois

Jerry Jones always likes to make a splash in the draft and grabbing one of the elite receivers in this year could be the way to go. The emergence of Miles Austin has been a relief, but the Cowboys still need more big plays from their receivers.

This is a difficult pick to project though because the Cowboys could just as easily bulk their front seven or even pick a backup to Tony Romo that they could groom for the future.

Despite never playing with a passing quarterback, Benn has over 150 catches and 2,000 yards through three years of college ball.

23. Cincinnati Bengals: Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina

Without a doubt the surprise team of the season has been the Bengals. Although they are doing great against the run, a disruptive tackle like Austin can be a dangerous piece in their rotation to bring added pressure on passing downs.

The Bengals could go a lot of ways with this pick, Javhid Best is a very realistic option as is a corner or offensive lineman.

The Bengals may have had the best draft of 2009 and I am confident they will pick from the top of the talent pool in 2010, making their team even stronger.

24. New York Giants: Earl Thomas, S, Texas

The Giants secondary was already a little suspect, and after the injury to Kenny Phillips it's clear they need more depth at the position.

Thomas hasn't solidified himself as a first rounder. In fact, the redshirt sophomore could very easily head back to school to add bulk and experience, but if he does come out he will get a lot of quality looks because of his ability to cover in addition to his staunch run support.

If he does decide to return to Austin, his reputation will make it hard for him to top his six interceptions (and counting).

The Giants could draft a tight end, linebacker or a corner here, but if Thomas enters the draft his upside makes him a great pick.

25. Seattle (From Denver): Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

It is time the Hawks start preparing a QB to take over for Matt Hasselbeck and I anticipate them drafting one late in the first or early in the second round, depending on how many juniors put their name into the mix.

McCoy hasn't displayed elite arm strength, but it hasn't stopped him from being extremely successful at an elite level.

His accuracy and intangibles are more important than his ability to gun the football, and while McCoy may not be able to run as much in the pros, he will still be able to scramble for key first downs.

McCoy may be able to start as a rookie but he would be best off learning how to play from under center opposed to the shotgun.

26. Arizona Cardinals: Greg Hardy, DE, Mississippi

The passing attack of the Cards has their defense facing just as many passing situations and they need to be able to get to the quarterback if they want to finish teams off.

Hardy is an interesting prospect, talent-wise he could be picked 15 spots higher but his lack of effort at times has actually led to him being benched. Another concern has been Hardy's health, including foot surgery in 2008.

Ultimately Hardy's ability to get to the QB will keep him in the first round. If he has a strong predraft process, Arizona may have to trade up if he's their guy.

27. Philadelphia Eagles: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

The Eagles need a rusher to play opposite of Trent Cole and Morgan's style of play is a perfect fit for the Eagles defensive scheme.

Not only can Morgan beat the tackle, but he is also devastating on stunt movements and effective against the run.

Although their defense has been making a lot of big plays, they still have some holes at all levels that need to be filled. A linebacker would be a great pickup late in the first round as well.

28. New England Patriots: Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri

Between injuries and lack of production, the Pats were hurting for backers so badly that they had to sign Junior Seau again.

New England could also use defensive linemen but a tough-nosed, highly-productive player like Weatherspoon could be plugged in to the Pats' scheme instantly.

Not only does Weatherspoon use his thick frame to play the run exceptionally well, he also has the speed to shut down running backs and tight ends in the passing game.

29. Pittsburgh Steelers: Arthur Jones, DT, Syracuse

Another player who could be drafted much higher, Jones' toughness and play against the run give him a high floor, but his injury history will have teams scratching their heads when they are on the clock.

The Steelers love big defensive lineman that can play multiple positions and although Jones hasn't been noted for his pass rushing, he can still get to the QB.

In this mock there are still good offensive line prospects on the board that may catch Pitt's eye, but the injury to 33-year-old Aaron Smith shows they still need to protect their D.

30. Minnesota Vikings: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

From JuCo to the NFL, it has been an interesting path for South Florida's Pierre-Paul, and a breakout 2009 has him ranking amongst first round prospects.

Pierre-Paul hasn't been a force getting to the QB, but he's effective in that area and he is disruptive against the run by registering tackles for loss.

The Vikings rush D is still very good, but it has been getting busted at times this year, which is why I have them drafting Pierre-Paul over one of the pass rush-type DEs on the board.

31. Indianapolis Colts: Charles Brown, OT, USC

The Colts desperately need depth, and even starters, all over their defense—so why go offense?

Because that's what the Colts do, they draft the best players on the board that will help their ball club and right now the Colts need to make sure they have depth on the offensive line.

They could easily draft a corner, defensive tackle like Jared Odrick, or even a receiver here, but there is a premium on protecting the QB and setting things up with the run.

Brown is a very athletic lineman, he could play any tackle or guard position if needed and he could develop into a good starting left tackle.

32. New Orleans Saints: Eric Norwood, DE/LB, South Carolina

The Saints' defense has done a great job of forcing turnovers and they have some solid players to play the run. While Norwood looks like he will work best in the 3-4 scheme, I feel he is versatile enough to play up on first and second down then move to the D-line in pass rushing situations.

Norwood has really emerged this season and has a great motor. The Saints also need depth in the defensive backfield, but if Norwood can play the 4-3 linebacker he should be a first-round pick.

NBA Power Rankings: Lakers Back on Top, Suns and Heat Rising Fast

John Lorge — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 09:33:19 -0500

After two weeks of action we’re getting a pretty good idea of who’s for real and who’s just hanging on in the NBA.

With half the league looking pretty good and half the League looking pretty bad here’s your power rankings:

1. Los Angeles Lakers (4) - Kobe is giving me flashbacks of 2005-06 but I snap out of it when the 40 point game ends in a victory.

2. Boston Celtics (1) - If you want to stay in the top spot you can't drop your only home game against your only legitimate opponent in the week.

3. Orlando Magic (3) - Blowout in OKC is a head-scratcher, if "the deepest team in the NBA" can't play better a few people short when the Cavs visit on Wednesday they will be sure to drop--win over the Suns is keeping them afloat.

4. Phoenix Suns (12) - 3-1 with one game left on Eastern Conference road trip, team couldn't have asked for anything more and they couldn't be shooting any better from deep.

5. Miami Heat (9) - Quentin Richardson is in the best shape of his life and he is playing great D in addition to outstanding three point shooting—when will be the first game Wade doesn't lead the team in scoring?

6. Denver Nuggets (2) - Back-to-back road losses hurt, this team is very happy to bring J.R. Smith back but they might be having fears about the Friday the 13th meeting with the Lakers.

7. Dallas Mavericks (7) - The team went 2-1 against three quality opponents, Dirk is in the top five for MVP voting at this point in the season.

8. Atlanta Hawks (8) - Small ball works, the Hawks have done a great job of integrating Crawford in the lineup and Josh Smith realized how difficult he can be to guard in the post.

9. Cleveland Cavaliers (6) - After a four day break, the Cavs will face Orlando and Miami back-to-back, right now splitting would be considered a victory.

10. Houston Rockets (13) - Taking the Lakers to OT is very impressive, Houston is the junkyard dog of the NBA and nobody is excited to face them.

11. Portland Trail Blazers (10) - Win over the Spurs was important for moral, Portland is in a great position to run-off four road wins before entering Atlanta.

12. San Antonio Spurs (5) - Will have to beat Houston this week if they want to get back in the top 10, I understand Pop doesn't want to wear his guys out but he's not giving his stars enough PT to win.

13. Toronto Raptors (15) - The Bosh-Bargnani combo is a difficult guard for almost any team in the League, and that's before you have to worry about the size of Turkoglu.

14. Chicago Bulls (16) - A strong week has the Chi at the top of their division, Tyrus Thomas is out for a while but Luol Deng is playing the best basketball of his life.

15. Oklahoma City Thunder (17) - Beating the teams they should is a good start, beating the Magic at home goes a long way, Durant, Westbrook, and Co. can go 3-1 over the next week.

16. Utah Jazz (14) - Sure they beat the Spurs but they lost to Dallas and now Sacramento, have fun on your road trip.

17. Detroit Pistons (21) - Beating Orlando and Philly in the same week earns them some respect, are the injuries to Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince real?

18. Philadelphia 76ers (18) - They haven't beaten a team who's better than them yet, in fact, they almost lost to the Nets.

19. New Orleans Hornets (19) - Beating Dallas was a nice sign of life but their aren't many easy wins on the horizon.

20. Charlotte Bobcats (24) - Raja Bell's return sparked a few needed wins, this team is twice as good at home as they are on the road.

21. Indiana Pacers (22) - After the next two weeks this team should be sitting above .500, they aren't ready for the playoffs but they are better than people think.

22. Los Angeles Clippers (23) - Three-game streak has Chris Kaman looking like an All-Star, but don't be fooled they were playing Minnesota, Golden State, and Memphis.

23. Milwaukee Bucks (20) - Brandon Jennings showed New York the mistake they made when they drafted Jordan Hill over him.

24. Washington Wizards (11) - A four-loss week hurts, Gilbert is scoring but he isn't taking over like he did before the injury.

25. Sacramento Kings (27) - Down goes Kevin Martin (surprise, surprise) and Tyreke Evans is ready to battle Jennings for the ROY, 55 points in two games is a good start.

26. Golden State Warriors (25) - How long till Don Nelson starts going crazy with his roster? If Morrow isn't starting by the end of November I'm starting a petition.

27. Memphis Grizzlies (28) - Saying goodbye to A.I. could be best for the team, now if they could only find a way to chase off Z-RO.

28. New York Knicks (26) - This team is sorry, sad, and ugly. I hope 2010 is worth it because basketball is dying in New York.

29. Minnesota Timberwolves (29) - Is everyone aware that Olesksiy Pecherov is starting in Minnesota? You know, the 7-footer born in Donestsk, USSR? No? Anybody?

30. New Jersey Nets (30) - John Wall would be my pick, especially if Harris is going to get hurt once a month. If not maybe Ed Davis or Derrick Favors would be an attractive post to pair with LeBron.

Fantasy Basketball Players Flying Under The Radar

John Lorge — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 09:31:30 -0500

Every fantasy basketball owner wants to get out to a hot start—why wouldn't you, right?

We have a long season ahead of us and just because somebody has been a disappointment through the first five games, it doesn't mean they aren't worth owning for the next 77.

Here is a list of guys giving you a headache early on, but I am expecting a great upswing from them over the next few weeks. Remember, the key to investing is buy low, sell high.

Derrick Rose, PG, Chicago Bulls

Those who drafted Rose expected his 16.8 points and 6.3 assists per game last season to rise this year, not fall to an abysmal 11.8 points and 4.8 assists per game.

Worry not, Rose is still nursing an ankle injury and coach Vinny Del Negro is doing the right thing by not rushing him back. When Rose's minutes go from 30 to the 37-plus he was averaging per game last year, his numbers will rise along with it.

If you are looking to trade for Rose do it ASAP; he is a tough kid and re-injury is not a major concern, so if you can work a deal involving a mid-tier PG, you will be getting a top-10 guy at the position in return.

John Salmons, G/F, Chicago Bulls

The one thing that hasn't changed for Salmons between last year and this year has been playing time—at 37 minutes per game, it is very hard not to like this guy.

If he wasn't shooting 25.9 percent from the field and 18.2 percent from three, his numbers would be much closer to the 18.3 points per game he averaged last year.

Despite the poor shooting, Salmons is working on defense, averaging 2.3 steals per game.

The fact is that Salmons isn't a big name. The average owner can easily be wooed with a lesser value and you should pounce all over him.

Charlie Villanueva, F, Detroit Pistons

As someone who bought into Villanueva heavily after last year's career numbers, this buy could be passed off as wishful thinking. On the other hand, Detroit made a major investment in him this summer, and he needs to start earning his paycheck.

Through four games, Villanueva has only cracked the 30 minute mark once, and he is yet to post a double-double. The odds of Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince being dealt are increasing, which means Detroit will lack even more talent.

Don't go hog-wild buying Villanueva, but keep in mind he has been a slow starter each of the last two seasons, his terrible shooting percentages will rise back to his career averages and the points, rebounds, and minutes will increase, too.

Other Low Fliers

Anthony Randolph, F, Golden State Warriors

A knee injury in camp slowed his start to the season, but this kid is for real. Take him off the hands of any owner who thinks his preseason ranking was over-hyped.

Tyreke Evans, PG, Sacramento Kings

The Kings aren't going anywhere this season, the future of the franchise rests in the progression of Evans at the PG position. If you're looking for a cheap player who will score and play big minutes, trade him for a stat specialist.

Rodrigue Beaubois, G, Dallas Mavericks

This is a French rookie who killed the NBA Summer League. Listed as a PG, he is more of a scoring guard and can really shoot the three. Throughout the season, he should steal minutes from J.J. Barea, especially when Josh Howard is hurt. He could be a gem in deep leagues, but a fringe player for most owners.

NBA Power Rankings: Cavs & Lakers Knocked Off Their Block

John Lorge — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 09:34:24 -0500

It has been a great week of NBA action so far, we’ve seen good teams lose and bad teams lose more. We also have three teams looking outstanding despite missing a piece or two from their key rotation.

Here’s my second installment of the power rankings:

1. Boston Celtics (3) - For having the reputation of a trouble maker, Sheed is fitting in quite nicely.

2. Denver Nuggets (5) - Melo is setting the pace for the MVP race. Even without J.R., Denver is looking dangerous.

3. Orlando Magic (6) - Depth has allowed the Magic to survive without Shard or Vince—not traveling West until December helps, too.

4. Los Angeles Lakers (1) - We know they can win without Bynum, but L.A. doesn't look like the Champs without Pau.

5. San Antonio Spurs (4) - Old bones looked brittle in back-to-back against Chicago.

6. Cleveland Cavaliers (2) - 0-2 start was inexcusable. The talent is there but the team doesn't have the same swagger as last year.

7. Dallas Mavericks (8) - After a 14-point victory in L.A., Howard's return only makes them that much more dangerous.

8. Atlanta Hawks (11) - Rotation lacks size, something their games in the next two weeks will expose.

9. Miami Heat (13) - Forget Wade, Jermaine O'Neal's double-double average has this team undefeated...OK, Wade is good, too.

10. Portland Trail Blazers (7) - Wins against Atlanta and San Antonio at home will help us forget about Houston.

11. Washington Wizards (14) - They can win big games without Jamison. Fans are just hoping they won't have to try to without Gilbert.

12. Phoenix Suns (12) - Haven't lost but haven't played anybody. Will play Miami, Orlando, Boston, Washington, and Philly by this time next week all on the road.

13. Houston Rockets (22) - Two key road wins means this team is more than hungry, they are capable.

14. Utah Jazz (9) - Talent on the roster is much better than their 1-2 record.

15. Toronto Raptors (15) - Shocker against Cleveland then shocked at Memphis, the Raptors are as two-faced as they come.

16. Chicago Bulls (17) - So easy to like, did you know they are shooting .413 from the field and .163 from three?

17. Oklahoma City Thunder (21) - Kevin Durant is good enough to put this team on his back. Green and Westbrook are good enough that he may not have to.

18. Philadelphia 76ers (19) - Lou Williams has a 7.5 A/T and A.I. dishes out 6.7 assists per game, who needs a traditional PG?

19. New Orleans Hornets (10) - Just not clicking right now, they seem prime candidates for a midseason trade.

20. Milwaukee Bucks (27) - Down goes Redd, up comes Jennings, down go the Pistons.

21. Detroit Pistons (16) - @CharlieV wuz last seasons production all about the Benjamins?

22. Indiana Pacers (20) - Must win game against the Knicks this week. If they lose, they fall.

23. Los Angeles Clippers (18) - Without Blake Griffin, this is the same Clippers, minus Z-RO. If I did my math right that equals the same old Clippers.

24. Charlotte Bobcats (28) - Good defense will always beat bad teams.

25. Golden State Warriors (23) - They'll win some, they'll lose some, they'll shoot a lot of threes along the way.

26. New York Knicks (26) - They will shoot even more threes—especially Gallinari.

27. Sacramento Kings (29) - They're hurting, but at least there is the future.

28. Memphis Grizzlies (24) - Iverson will sell a few more tickets but will he inhibit Mayo's progression?

29. Minnesota Timberwolves (30) - Al Jefferson's rehab mission is painful to watch.

30. New Jersey Nets (25) - Harris goes out for the first time this year. It won't be the last.

Knicks' Danilo Gallinari Plans Assault On All Three-Point Records

John Lorge — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 09:38:54 -0500

Who is the best shooter you've ever seen?

During the 2005-'06 NBA season, I had an opportunity to watch Seattle's Ray Allen set the NBA record for threes made when he canned 269 of his 653 attempts in 78 regular season games.

Allen is a flawless shooter with unlimited range and no conscious and he can single handedly bring a team back from a double-digit deficit.

This summer when Mike D'Antoni stated the best shooter he had ever seen was Danilo Gallinari, nobody was speaking up to second his claims.

Gallinari has hit 18 threes through the first three games of the season, and Knicks fans are finally beginning to understand what D'Antoni was talking about—and why New York spent the sixth pick of the 2008 draft on him when Eric Gordon and Brook Lopez seemed like great picks.

The 21-year-old Italian isn't hoisting up careless shots, he is shooting an uncanny 50 percent from behind the arc, and is quickly establishing himself as the deadliest long ball shooter in the NBA.

To put in perspective what Gallinari is doing, he is on pace to hit 492 of 984 threes, and that’s this season. Those projections are for an 82-game season, however, and the 6'10", 225-pound Gallinari missed 54 games due to injury as a rookie. It is highly unlikely he will be able to play in every game this season, but he has added good size to his frame since entering the league.

Missing a few games here and there won't hurt him one bit, though, as Gallinari is projected to break the record in his 45th game of the season. At his sickening pace, Gallinari will only need 422 more games to break Reggie Miller's all-time record of 2,560—if he can play just 60 games a season, he will have the record well before he is 30 years old.

It is not expected that Gallinari will keep his numbers at this level, but that's only because we've never see shooting like this before. With D'Antoni's system putting a priority on the trey and the green light to shoot, Gallinari could be breaking his own three-point records for years to come.

A deep threat like that is attractive bait to one of the elite penetrators in the 2010 free agency class.

Fantasy Basketball: Three S's For Success In November

John Lorge — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 09:53:29 -0400

If you aren't knee deep in NBA hoops by now you aren't a fan of the game. For fantasy basketball owners this can be one of the hectic times of the season because you are trying to adjust your roster before the others realize who's hot and who's not.

For November's Three S's For Success (stars, starters, and sleepers) I have two of the NBA's finest Italians and one superstar who sounds Italian.

If another owner in your league doesn't want to give one of these guys up, put a horse's head in his bed and see if he comes around.

Star

Carmelo Anthony, SF, Denver Nuggets

Looking quicker than ever, Anthony has amassed 71 points in his first two games with a 51.2 field goal percentage and 25-of-29 shooting from the stripe. Melo is attacking offensively, he is exploiting mismatches in the post, and he has a plethora of moves when facing the hoop.

While there may only be a handful of players capable of outscoring Anthony in the month of November, fantasy basketball is about more than just points. He is averaging 7.0 rebounds per game to go with his 4.0 assists.

The month presents Denver with some high scoring games like the Pacers and Knicks, and they will need Anthony to play big minutes against the likes of L.A., Atlanta, Toronto, and Chicago (twice).

Coach George Karl wants Carmelo to be a serious MVP candidate this season, and even when J.R. Smith returns the offense will be run through their star.

He had a third round value in most drafts but will post top 20 fantasy numbers for the remainder of the season.

Starter

Andrea Bargnani, F/C, Toronto Raptors

In the preseason I had Bargnani as my fifth-ranked center, and he affirmed that ranking with his 28-point first game where he drained two threes, grabbed five rebounds, stole a ball, and blocked a shot in a below average 29 minutes.

He isn't a dominating rebounder, but as a center he is good for blocked shots and he is one of the few three point shooters at the position.

November will be a tough month for Toronto. They will play Orlando (twice), Dallas, New Orleans, Detroit, San Antonio, Chicago, Denver, Utah, and Boston.

This means they will need their key contributors to play big minutes. They will have especially high scoring games against the Pacers and twice against the Suns.

There may be nights where Bargnani fades, but overall his production is worth targeting.

Sleeper

Danilo Gallinari, G/F, New York Knicks

This summer when Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni said Gallinari is the best shooter he's ever seen, people listened.

But I'm not sure they believed him.

As a rookie the Italian hit 22.2 percent of his 2.6 threes per game. The downer is that he only averaged 15 minutes in his 28 games played due to injuries.

The kid could get stronger, but there is nothing wrong with his stroke as he showed in his 22-point shooting display against the Heat where he canned 7-of-13 threes on the night.

At 6'10" Gallinari has the size to get you over five rebounds per game, especially if he plays 28-plus minutes like he did in his first game. He isn't much of a passer or defensive threat but his ridiculous three point production his a H2H killer.

Schedule is not a major issue. The Knicks will play at their pace regardless of the opponent and the bigger the deficit the more Gallinari will get to shoot. But two games against Indiana and one against Golden State should be especially high scoring affairs.

The Knicks must develop Gallinari this season so he is ready to contribute when they are contenders. Adding him now could pay dividends throughout the year as long as he can avoid the IR.

NBA Power Rankings: The 2009-10 Season Tips Off

John Lorge — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 09:33:40 -0400

Ladies and gentlemen, the NBA season has arrived.

While talks of 2010 are heavy, everyone at the top of the league is still playing for that coveted title—and they made the moves to prove it.

Here's the first Power Rankings of the 2009-10 season.

1. Los Angeles Lakers

Ron Artest will have the defensive intensity he played with five years ago, and L.A. is even stronger than last year with Andrew Bynum looking impressive.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers

Role players like Jamario Moon and Anthony Parker will be impressive in prime time. Oh yeah, and they have Shaq this year too.

3. Boston Celtics

The C's have depth, experience, and they are healthy for the time being.

4. San Antonio Spurs

The injury to Parker over the summer is a worry, but this may be the best bench in franchise history with the arrival of Richard Jefferson and DeJuan Blair.

5. Denver Nuggets

They didn't make moves like the other teams this summer but their team chemistry is outstanding.

6. Orlando Magic

Rashard Lewis will be missed for 10 games. Orlando has great depth but you can only play five players at a time.

7. Portland Trail Blazers

It's becoming cliché but Greg Oden could push this team into the NBA elite as long as Andre Miller knows his role.

8. Dallas Mavericks

If Shawn Marion plays like an All-Star the Mavs move up. If he plays like he did in Miami and Toronto they will slip.

9. Utah Jazz

Deron Williams is an elite PG and Carlos Boozer will play hard regardless of how he feels deep down. This will be the best Jazz team since Stockton and Malone.

10. New Orleans Hornets

Even if Emeka Okafor's health is a question mark, Chris Paul is good enough to get New Orleans above .600.

11. Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks were able to bring everyone back and they even added to their backcourt, but does more talent equal less happy players?

12. Phoenix Suns

The players are happy they will be getting back to old ways, and the Suns still have two of the NBA's elite.

13. Miami Heat

Overall this is not a team that can contend for the title, but Wade will not let them miss the playoffs.

14. Washington Wizards

The injury to Antawn Jamison is not a good omen for the season, but the talent and coaching is there to make a serious playoff run.

15. Toronto Raptors

Last season was a blunder, but the Raptors have more players who want to be there than ever.

16. Detroit Pistons

And then there were two. Can Rip and Tayshaun blend with Ben and Charlie?

17. Chicago Bulls

Derrick Rose has all the makings of a star. He will need to carry Chicago, but he has a talented supporting cast.

18. Los Angeles Clippers

Injuries threaten this team but the Clips have the players to make a push for eighth place.

19. Philadelphia 76ers

With no Andre Miller the Sixers lose their rock, and their offense wasn't potent to began with.

20. Indiana Pacers

This is a team built to score. If they can learn to stop people they present some tough matchups with their very good size.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder

The criticism of Kevin Durant will push him to play at a different level this year, and his young guns will follow.

22. Houston Rockets

It will be a miracle if they make the playoffs out west, but this team will still deliver some shockers.

23. Golden State Warriors

If you're not a fan this is a fun team to watch. If you live in the Bay, oy vey.

24. Memphis Grizzlies

Iverson's health will put a strain on the lineups. This is a talented roster but they carry a stigma.

25. New Jersey Nets

Their are some hungry players out in Jersey—Yi, Lee, and CDR will fill in the gap between Harris and Lopez.

26. New York Knicks

Sure they score a lot of points, but the Knicks don't stop many teams and their total focus is on 2010.

27. Milwaukee Bucks

As long as Redd and Bogut are in the lineup they can challenge teams. Brandon Jennings wants to be special too.

28. Charlotte Bobcats

They downgraded their center and already lost their starting shooting guard. A lot of heart but not a lot of talent.

29. Sacramento Kings

Lots of young talent on the roster but none are great defenders and there are also injury troubles.

30. Minnesota Timberwolves

Big Al Jefferson still isn't 100 percent from his knee injury and Jonny Flynn isn't enough to will an NBA team to wins.

Fantasy Basketball: Three S's For Success In October

John Lorge — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 23:51:22 -0400

Every fantasy basketball title run consists of stars, starters, and sleepers—or as I like to say the Three S's For Success.

You might not be focused on the title yet but the moves you make to your roster at the start of the season could have a major impact on your team's landscape come playoff time.

We only have a few games in October, but here are four guys who will get your season started off right.

Star

Kevin Garnett, PF, Boston Celtics - The most intense man in professional sports hasn't played a game that counted since last March. I'm not a major advocate of Garnett this season because he carries an injury risk but I am confident he will get out to a fast start in 2009.

With three games in October, including a pivotal matchup with Cleveland, KG will be counted on as the Celtics look to get out to a fast start. In over 30 minutes per night Garnett can post a high teens average, with close to 10 rebounds per game and good assists, steals, and blocks numbers for his position on the way.

A good start to the season can make Garnett valuable trade bait before he starts to miss time.

Starter

Anthony Randolph, F, Golden State Warriors - There is a strong possibility Randolph will win the Most Improved Player Award this year as the full-time starting power forward for Golden State.

In October games against Houston and Phoenix, Randolph will have a good shot at averaging a double-double, he isn't much of a three point shooter at this point in his career but he's good for blocks and steals.

The Warriors other young forward, Brandan Wright, is injured which only makes things more promising for Randolph to start the year.

I anticipate a lot of movement in the Warriors roster this season but Randolph will be one of the few constants, grab him if you can.

Sleeper

Channing Frye, F/C, Phoenix Suns - For starters, in seven preseason games Frye hit 11-of-26 threes--not typical production from your starting fantasy center.

Although he may not be typical Frye will be very productive in the Suns offense as they've turned the tempo back up. Another reason Frye will start hot in the Suns two October games is the injury to Robin Lopez who was supposed to be the starter.

Eventually Frye will split time with Lopez so if you can roster him when he's productive you may be able to deal him before a decline.

Bonus Sleeper

D.J. Augustine, G, Charlotte Bobcats - Most sleepers arise because of an injury to the starter. Augustine is a baller, but the injury to Raja Bell will have him eating early and often from behind the arc.

Last season Larry Brown was comfortable playing Augustine alongside Raymond Felton, and he can also sub-in for the former Tar Heel as well.

Along with threes Augustine is an overall scoring threat, he has good assist numbers for a combo guard and he gets steals as well.

If your searching for a guard he will not disappoint.

NBA Fantasy Basketball Sleepers: Every Team Has One

John Lorge — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 09:44:24 -0400

In fantasy basketball he sleepers are key, they are the players that put your team over the edge in a close matchup or save you when a starter goes down.

There is a difference between a sleeper and a value pick. While people may be sleeping on Anthony Randolph this year, he is a value pick, sleepers are those guys you draft in the final few rounds or pickup off the wire.

I’ve combed the rosters to find the best true sleepers on every team, take a look.

Rankings: PG | SG | SF | PF | C

Zaza Pachulia, C, Atlanta Hawks - To be honest the Hawks don't have many sleepers unless they trade away Josh Smith or Jamal Crawford.

Kendrick Perkins, C, Boston Celtics - If you think the addition of Rasheed Wallace is going to hurt Perkins' fantasy production think again. In only 29.6 minutes per game last season he averaged 8.1 rebounds and 1.97 blocks per game.

D.J. Augustine, G, Charlotte Bobcats - It's hard to keep his super stroke off the court, especially with Raja Bell hurt. If the Bobcats can deal Felton his stock goes through the roof.

Kirk Hinrich, G, Chicago Bulls - Numbers have been on a decline since 2006-07 but with no Ben Gordon his role will be upgraded.

Jamario Moon, SF, & Anthony Parker, G/F, Cleveland Cavilers - Moon won't kill any one category but he has the skills to post threes, steals, blocks, and rebounds. Parker will crush open looks from deep and he is a good passer off the wing.

Drew Gooden, F, Dallas Mavericks - Very good rebounder, he can help the Mavs go big or small.

Chris Anderson, C, Denver Nuggets - Was on the list last year, he isn't flying under the radar as low but his blocks are still underrated.

Austin Daye, F, and DaJuan Summers, F, Detroit Pistons - Both rookies can stroke, Summers is more NBA ready but Daye has more upside that needs to be developed.

Anthony Morrow, SG, Golden State Warriors - Making the most of his opportunities in the NBA, Don Nelson cannot ignore his deep shooting ability.

Carl Landry, F, Houston Rockets - Chase Budinger, Aaron Brooks, and David Anderson will also fit here but Landry is determined to board and score now that Yao is out of the lineup.

Roy Hibbert, C, Indiana Pacers - Giant bigman is developing into a force on the interior, plays well with the Pacers other sleeper Tyler Hansbrough too.

DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angles Clippers - There will be times where Camby and Kaman cannot go during the season and Jordan will post top 10 center numbers during that time.

Jordan Farmar, PG, Los Angles Lakers - If he can avoid injuries he should get a bulk of the minutes in the middle of the game.

Hasheem Thabeet, C, Memphis Grizzlies - Doesn't do it all but should finish top 10 in blocked shots.

Quentin Richardson, G/F, Miami Heat - Won't shoot as many threes as he did in New York but he is the fifth best basketball player on the roster.

Hakim Warrick, F, and Joe Alexander, F, Milwaukee Bucks - Warrick is playing on a one year deal so you know he wants to show he can do it all. Alexander has been injured but the former lottery pick needs time on the floor to develop.

Ryan Gomes, F, Minnesota Timberwolves - Strong forward can shoot the three and doesn't have much competition at his position.

Yi Jianlian, F, and Chris Douglas-Roberts, G/F, New Jersey Nets - The Nets don't have much of a shot at making the playoffs but these guys will get plenty of shots to try.

Julian Wright, SF, New Orleans Hornets - Moving into a starting role this year means more minutes, with points, rebounds, and steals on the way.

Danilo Gallinari, G/F, New York Knicks - Possibly the best shooter in the world you've never seen--this year will be his coming out party.

D.J. White, PF, Oklahoma City Thunder - The only true PF on the roster, White boards hard and is a better scorer than you may think.

Ryan Anderson, F, Orlando Magic - There are a lot of big names on the roster in Orlando but nobody is shooting better than Anderson.

Lou Williams, G, Philadelphia 76ers - Combo guard will start at point giving him a chance at a career high in points and assists.

Channing Frye, F/C, Phoenix Suns - Robin Lopez was injured so the smooth shooting Frye will start at center and hit a few threes on the way.

Martell Webster, G/F, Portland Trail Blazers - Has struggled with injuries but may be the most talented wing in the NBA that nobody is talking about.

Tyreke Evans, PG, Sacramento Kings - Front runner for ROY is undervalued right now in fantasy hoops, won't get a ton of assists but can score at will.

DeJuan Blair, PF, San Antonio Spurs - If he continues to rip down rebounds and score at a high percentages Pop won't be able to keep him off the floor.

DeMar DeRozan, G/F, Toronto Raptors - The college game didn't fit his style, he was made to play in the NBA.

Kosta Koufos, C, Utah Jazz - The eventual replacement for Okur will build on solid rookie year.

Rankings: PG | SG | SF | PF | C

Texas-Oklahoma: Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy Fail NFL Scouts in Red River Shootout

John Lorge — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 09:48:47 -0400

This year's Red River shootout between Texas and Oklahoma was anything but lackluster, however if you are an NFL team looking for a savior at quarterback, your list may have gotten two players shorter.

Last Monday, I noted that the "Games against Texas (Oct. 17) and Nebraska (Nov. 7) will show how (Sam Bradford) does with a player in his face." Unfortunately for Oklahoma fans, we may not see how Bradford does against Nebraska's defense because he was knocked out of the game by cornerback Aaron Williams on a play that was ruled a tackle for loss.

Bradford is quickly earning the moniker "damaged goods." Before leaving the game, he was 2-for-6 with 77 yards on the day.

The Oklahoma offense was facing the most star-studded defense they were scheduled to play with 2010 NFL draft prospects OLB/DE Sergio Kindle (2 TFL, Sack), S Earl Thomas (2 TFL, FF, INT, PBU), LB Roderick Muckelroy , CB Deon Beasley (FF), and DT Lamarr Houston (TFL) all on the field.

Teams in the NFL are converting to more 3-4 looks, which is creating a higher demand for players like Kindle. At 6'4" 255 pounds, Kindle is a perfect fit for the hybrid pass rusher role. He was explosive out of his stance against Oklahoma and created pressure with several different moves.

Maybe the most impressive player for Texas' D was the aforementioned Williams. The 6'1", 189-pound sophomore was a Parade All-American as a prep in 2007 and he will be eligible for the 2011 NFL Draft.

Along with his knockout hit on Bradford, Williams made an athletic interception and added a pass breakup as well as another tackle for loss. He has four career blocked puts—a Texas record—and blocked 12 in high school.

On the offensive side of the ball, Texas stars Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley did not provide NFL scouts with very good film to review.

McCoy lacked zip on his passes and he threw one interception that could have been costly. Positives were that he is very competitive, he made good runs under pressure, and it's obvious he is an experienced quarterback.

On his career, McCoy has been extremely accurate, but he only completed 53.8 percent of his passes against the Sooners. If you don't have the arm to get the ball in the NFL window, it will result in interceptions and punts.

Shipley is McCoy’s most reliable target, but he could not break open on Saturday. He finished with four catches for 22 yards, with a long reception of nine yards. He also muffed a punt.

The Longhorns' lack of scoring wasn't due entirely to poor play though, as the Sooners have a roster full of NFL talent in their own right.

Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy was a disruptive force on the defensive line, he registered two tackles for loss, including a sack.

McCoy seems best suited to play the three technique, but his strength and athleticism allow him to line up at the five or nose and he is a perfect fit for any defensive scheme.

With a player like McCoy getting close attention, it helped OLB/DE Auston English register two sacks. English has some durability issues entering the NFL, but his size, athleticism, and pedigree will get him serious looks in the second and third round.

Corner Brian Jackson had the pick on Colt McCoy and he also added a pass breakup and linebacker Keenan Clayton broke up two passes as well. Both are late round projections, but they are almost guaranteed to be drafted coming from Bob Stoops' defense.

The final elite prospect scouts were watching was Trent Williams, the 6'5", 306-pound left tackle. Williams has been stout in his first season on the left side. He did get banged up in the game, but did not have to leave with an injury.

Once the prospects head to the NFL Draft Combine, Williams is one the scouts will be drooling over. He has long arms that appear very strong sticking out of his shoulder pads. His frame can still handle additional weight if needed, but he has been a dominating run blocker at his size.

Williams outplayed Texas draft hopefuls T Adam Ulatoski, C Chris Hall, and G Charles Tanner on the offensive line, but as a whole, they blocked for 142 rushing yards, opposed to the negative 16 Oklahoma finished with.

Top Five 2010 QB Prospects

1. Jake Locker, Washington

He should have gotten an opportunity to show his stuff in OT against ASU. Every loss increases the likelihood of a return to school.

2. Tony Pike, Cincinnati

He had no trouble navigating against what might be the best pass D he faces all year. He also showed very good mobility, if his non-throwing arm is a serious issue, he will move down.

3. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame

He couldn't beat USC, but avoided interceptions and brought ND within seven after scoring three second-half TDs.

4. Colt McCoy, Texas

McCoy looked like a college QB in shootout. Scouts would like to see him in more pro-style looks.

5. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma

It doesn't seem like his body will be ready to start in the NFL's 2010 season. Questions about him throwing under pressure still exist.

NBA Fantasy Basketball Rankings: Centers (C) 2009-10

John Lorge — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 10:27:39 -0400

The toughest position in fantasy basketball is the centers. It seems like half of these guys were hurt last year and their numbers are so bunched to began with.

Only a few guys have points worth targeting so focus on shot blockers and rebounders who play big minutes if you want worthwhile production.

Rankings: PG | SG | SF | PF

The Top 10

1. Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic - A word to the wise, if you draft Howard don't try to hedge the pick with great foul shooters and guys that don't turn the ball over. Throw a few categories away and play off the new Superman.

Howard continues to improve his game. He has averaged roughly 20 and 14 the past two seasons and he led the NBA in blocks with 2.9 per game. His field-goal percentage in amazing and if you play in any leagues where free throws made or attempted count, he’s a plus there, too.

2a. Al Jefferson, Minnesota Timberwolves - *Buyer Beware* Nobody wants to see a bigman miss 32 games with a knee injury; it killed fantasy owners and the T-Wolves are going to do everything they can to prevent it from happening again.

Jefferson is a scoring machine on the block and he eats rebounds. His 1.7 blocks per game last year were solid and he converts from the stripe at a good clip. The threat of re-injury is the only reason not to draft him.

2b. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs - In an effort to save his body, Duncan relaxed his off-season training routine which means he will be fresh for the season.

Duncan is no longer a first round lock but he is still one of the better shot blocking big men and he may be the best passing center in the game. Every season in the NBA Duncan has averaged a double-double and I don't see that trend breaking.

4. Brook Lopez, New Jersey Nets - No rookie impressed more than Lopez last season, and the young professional will come out even better this season. I am expecting a double-double average with scoring in the mid to high teens and he should push his blocks over 2.0 per game.

The Nets are going to be hurting this year so I expect Lopez to play 35 minutes or more if he can handle it. Something to keep in mind is he is a fantastic foul shooter for a rookie at 79.3 percent.

5. Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors - Finally in his third season, Bargnani is starting to live up to his No. 1 overall pick after switching to the five full-time.

In 44 games as a starting center he averaged 18.9 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game. He also canned 1.9 threes per game in that role. I expect his rebounds to go up by one or two and he is a great value pick.

6. David Lee, New York Knicks - Mr. Efficiency, Lee is a career 56.4 percent shooter from the field and he posted a career high 16.0 points and 11.7 rebounds for the up-tempo Knicks.

Be aware that he doesn't black many shots but he can log one steal per game if he plays 35 minutes. Playing on a one year deal, Lee will need to meet or beat last year's numbers to ensure a big paycheck in 2010.

7. Mehmet Okur, Utah Jazz - Playing through some turmoil in his family, Okur was able to score 17.0 points and grab 7.7 rebounds per game. A bonus is that the big Turk hit 1.3 threes per game at a career best 44.6 percent.

Now Okur lets his power forwards bang more down low, and he doesn't get many blocks or steals, but his great shooting touch can offset traditional center numbers.

8. Emeka Okafor, New Orleans Hornets - *Buyer Beware* After playing 82 games in back to back seasons, Okafor would seem like a safe pick, but this preseason, he has been hampered by a sprained toe, reminding owners that he missed 80 games through his first three seasons.

When Okafor does hit the floor he will flourish playing wih Chris Paul. The buckets should come easier than ever and he could break the 15 points per game mark for the second time in his career. Okafor has been a double-double lock since entering the NBA and he is an imposing shot blocker. Had the toe not been n issue he may be ranked higher.

9. Andrew Bynum, Los Angles Lakers - *Buyer Beware* If you want to see a really impressive center check out Andrew Bynum—just make sure you do it before February because for each of the last two seasons his year has been cut short by serious knee injuries.

Back in action, Bynum will strive for another double-double like he was averaging in 2007-08. With all of the talent on LA he isn't likely to beat a mid-teens scoring average but he is capable of blocking over two shots per game.

If Bynum can play over 30 minutes per game he will be an absolute fantasy stud because he shoots great percentages from the field and is solid from the stripe at 70 percent.

10. Andris Biedrins, Golden State Warriors - *Buyer Beware* In the second half of the season Biedrins missed 20 games, bringing up questions of whether or not his body will be able to handle another full load in the post. I am not seriously concerned about it though, and Biedrins is a solid pick coming off his first 11 and 11 season.

The long Latvian blocked 1.6 shots per game last year and he is especially efficient as a 60.4 percent shooter for his career. Keep in mind that comes with a 55.1 free throw percentage. If Biedrins can sustain the hot 15 and 12 start he had through the first month of the season last year, he could be a steal in the draft.

Next Best

Marcus Camby, Los Angles Clippers - *Buyer Beware* Can't rank him in the top 10 because he's played 70 games three times in 13 years. Gets it done when on the court though.

Nene Hilario, Denver Nuggets - *Buyer Beware* Dunking machine is a good scoring big, but the rebounds and blocks aren't as bountiful as you might expect. He does steal though.

Rasheed Wallace, Detroit Pistons - With something to play for, I don't expect Sheed to miss much time; his threes are rare for the center position.

Spencer Hawes, Sacramento Kings - Developing a nice three ball, all numbers will continue to climb with more PT.

Shaquille O'Neal, Cleveland Cavaliers - Minutes will be less than but he can still get it done under the hoop.

Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks - *Buyer Beware* Another young big who experienced injuries that limited production, but his numbers climbed from year one to two.

Greg Oden, Portland Trailblazers - *Buyer Beware* Will make a bid for the All-Star spot in the West if he doesn't miss time.

Samuel Dalembert, Philadelphia 76ers - Fell-off last season but will post more double-doubles and has played 82 games three straight years.

Kendrick Perkins, Boston Celtics - Doesn't need to score much but he blocked 2.0 shots per game in 30 minutes of play.

Jermaine O'Neal, Miami Heat - *Buyer Beware* Can't seem to avoid getting dinged up but he is very talented on offense—is he afraid to bang?

Chris Kaman, Los Angles Clippers - *Buyer Beware* Very good center when in the game but his body is breaking down.

Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee Bucks - *Buyer Beware* Was posting a double-double for 36 games before a scary back injury.

Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls - More minutes will lead to more blocks and rebounds, love his energy.

Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies - Smooth offensive touch but may lose PT to Thabeet.

Chris Anderson, Denver Nuggets - He does one things (blocks) but he does it better than anyone not named Dwight.

Tyson Chandler, Charlotte Bobcats - *Buyer Beware* Numbers will drop away from CP3 and his injuries are a concern.

Brad Miller, Chciago Bulls - *Buyer Beware* If he gets traded from the Bulls his value may rise, he doesn't seem to be a major part of their plan.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland Cavaliers - *Buyer Beware* - Off the bench role should save his legs but shave his PT.

Brendan Haywood, Washington Wizards - *Buyer Beware* Traditionally healthy and solid, he played six games last year.

Don't Sleep On

Channing Frye, Phoenix Suns - Robin Lopez is hurt to start the year, Frye has a good jumper and can hit the three.

Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers - Looked like a starting NBA center all summer, he has great size and does the dirty work.

Hasheem Thabeet, Memphis Grizzlies - Still very raw but he will block shots at an uncanny per minute pace.

Nenad Krstic, Oklahoma City Thunder - Backup centers in OKC are suspect, he scored 16.4 points per game three years ago.

David Andersen, Houston Rockets - Big Aussie will get plenty of chances to post numbers, has a nice shooting touch.

DeAndre Jordan, Los Angles Clippers - When Kaman and Camby go down he will post huge numbers.

Fabrecio Oberto, Washington Wizards - Could earn starting role for the Wiz but has never been a stat machine.

Marreese Speights, Philadelphia 76ers - Posted a few big games but may not get the PT he needs to be fantasy relevant.

Rankings: PG | SG | SF | PF

NBA Fantasy Basketball Rankings: Power Forwards (PF) 2009-10

John Lorge — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 16:53:51 -0400

Some ride point guards and power forwards to a fantasy basketball title and if that's the case, half of your equation is in this list.

Plenty of guys get a good mix of points and rebounds, but it’s those who separate themselves with threes, blocks, or great shooting percentages that stand out amongst the pack.

Rankings: PG | SG | SF | C

The Top 10

1. Amar'e Stoudemire, Phoenix Suns - *Buyer Beware* Now that Stoudemire's eye is back in the socket, Shaq is out of town, and the Suns are back to running up the score, the sun is shining on Stoudemire's fantasy season. The only thing that can stop him his another freak injury.

We could be looking at the first career double-double from Stoudemire as well as a career high in scoring. He hits from the stripe and has a great field goal percentage, if Amar'e can match his career high 2.1 blocks per game that he posted in 2007-08 he will be the top player at his position.

2. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks - For 10 straight seasons Nowitzki has been providing the Mavericks and fantasy owners with elite production on a consistent basis. During that span he has never played less than 76 games, and while he has never been a 20 and 10 guy, 25.9 and 8.4 are pretty good.

Nowitzki doesn't shoot the three as much as he used to but he will still stroke it, he converts from the stripe, and is decent at steals and blocks. He may not be the top producing fantasy player at his position but he will not let you down.

3. Chris Bosh, Toronto Raptors - Solidifying himself as an elite power forward, Bosh posted the second 20 and 10 average of his career last year and he played 77 games even with the Olympics.

Bosh has good vision and will get you a few assists, he has averaged over one block per game every year too. The only downside is his sub-50 field goal percentage but he makes up for it with outstanding foul shooting.

4. Pau Gasol, Los Angles Lakers - There is a bit of an "if" surrounding Gasol's fantasy basketball status. If Andrew Bynum gets hurt again Gasol will be worth every penny. If the Lakers stay healthy Gasol will likely have a second round value.

He is an outstanding shooter, you can expect a high teens average and 7.5 to 9.5 rebounds per game. Gasol is good for at least one block and three assists per game too.

5. Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics - *Buyer Beware* After experiencing a serious knee injury last year I have my doubts about Garnett's production from a fantasy standpoint this year. The addition of Rasheed Wallace will allow KG to play a few less minutes and if the Celtics have the playoffs wrapped up Rivers will sit him in the final week of the season.

If you can get Garnett at a good price he will still give you point, rebounds, steals, assists, and blocks—just not in the same way that he used to.

6. David West, New Orleans Hornets - Quietly West has solidified himself as one of the best power forwards in the NBA and he is in the prime of his career. Rebounds and points come easily for West, and he is known for playing big minutes.

He is not much for steals or blocks and his assists are competitive with the rest of the top players in the position group. Playing with Chris Paul makes West an attractive fantasy option.

7. Antawn Jamison, Washington Wizards - *Buyer Beware* A sprained shoulder in the pre-season may have owners worried but if MRI results turn out good, you can ignore the buyer beware tag.

Even if Jamison is healthy he won't likely post another 22.2 points per game with the added offense in Washington. Overall he is a good pick because on top of boards and points, he can hit threes and steal the ball. Keep an eye on his shoulder, if it's good he might be a better pick than West.

8. Troy Murphy, Indiana Pacers - Much like Danny Granger the new system in Indiana over the past two years has been good for Murphy and things will continue to go that way. Maybe the best deep shooter of the position group, he canned 45 percent of his 4.9 attempts per game.

Murphy was a rebounding machine at 11.8 per game, which may fall with the emergence of Roy Hibbert but he could still post a double-double. Not many steals or blocks but he will notch a few assists.

9. Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks - After a rocky season last year Smith needs to get back on track and he will do so, especially if he can avoid injury.

Smith saw his blocks fall 1.2 per game last year and he will be back above two this season. He may not out-pace a mid teens scoring average but his length and athleticism allow him to grab rebounds. He is a good passer and has a developing three point shot. His ability to steal the ball is better than the rest of his power forward peers.

10. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trailblazers - With game similar to another Texas native (Bosh) Aldridge is the best power forward in the NBA nobody is talking about. He has a smooth game and nice jumper that notched him 18.2 points per game to go with his 7.5 rebounds.

He has averaged at least one block per game every year and last season he averaged a steal per game too in 27 minutes of play. The Blazers don't have a true PF to back him up so he should log big minutes again.

The Next Best

Carlos Boozer, Utah Jazz - *Buyer Beware* Health, heart, and head in question. Boozer should still contend for a double-double and could potentially put my ranking to shame if healthy.

Al Harrington, New York Knicks - Loves playing in New York, he shoots a lot of threes and will board.

Charlie Villanueva, Detroit Pistons - Numbers will continue to climb as he plays 30 MPG for the first time ever.

Rashard Lewis, Orlando Magic - *Buyer Beware* In case you missed it, Lewis will be suspended for the first 10 games of the season, so that puts his max at 72. In those games he can still be a force from long distance, as he led the league in threes last year.

Elton Brand, Philadelphia 76ers - *Buyer Beware* - He can still block, board, and score but I doubt he will make it to 50 games.

Anthony Randolph, Golden State Warriors - Will post monster stats in a starting role, fills all categories but threes.

Jeff Green, Oklahoma City Thunder - Keeps improving his game. He can shoot the three and hits the boards.

Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz - Still logs good minutes even with Boozer in the lineup and he is super productive.

Tyrus Thomas, Chicago Bulls - May never be a great scorer but rises up for rebounds and is an intimidating shot blocker.

Zach Randolph, Memphis Grizzlies - Always gets his, no matter where he plays the points and rebounds will be there.

Michael Beasley, Miami Heat - Should score in the high teens but he needs to progress the rest of his game as well.

Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves - If you play in an offensive rebounds league he is a must have.

Blake Griffin, Los Angles Clippers - Will have up and down stat lines but averages will look decent.

Luis Scola, Houston Rockets - Potentially a double-double average with a great field goal percentage but doesn't block many shots.

Jason Thompson, Sacramento Kings - Looked great at times as a rookie, will have a bigger role in year two.

Boris Diaw, Charlotte Bobcats - Resurrected his career in Charlotte, big minutes lead to nice fantasy numbers.

Lamar Odom, Los Angles Lakers - Value doubles when Bynum goes down.

Marvin Williams, Atlanta Hawks - Solid numbers but doesn't look like he will touch his potential in Atlanta.

Don't Sleep On

Yi Jianlian, New Jersey Nets - *Buyer Beware* On the soft side but will produce better than expected when on the court.

Hakeem Warrick, Milwaukee Bucks - The Bucks are thin at PF and he wants to get paid.

Carl Landry, Houston Rockets - With Yao out he's pushing to have a huge season.

Ryan Gomes, Minnesota Timberwolves - Solid three point shooter gets good playing time as a starter.

Kenyon Martin, Denver Nuggets - *Buyer Beware* Steals, blocks, and rebounds but injuries hurt owners.

Brandon Bass, Orlando Magic - Big off-season signing should lead to more PT and stats.

Travis Outlaw, Portland Trailblazers - Should post numbers similar to past two seasons.

Ryan Anderson, Orlando Magic - Deadly three point shooter but PT may be an issue.

D.J. White, Oklahoma City Thunder - Deep sleeper, he could be dangerous off the bench for OKC with boards and scoring ability.

Rankings: PG | SG | SF | C

NBA Fantasy Basketball Rankings: Small Forwards (SF) 2009-10

John Lorge — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 00:14:09 -0400

When you're scouting the small forward position in fantasy basketball, you want a guy who can do it all. You may even be willing to sacrifice a few points if it means getting some blocks or steals in return.

James is still King, but there are a few princes going after the SF crown.

Rankings: PG | SG | PF | C

The Top 10

1. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers

It's pretty tough to poke holes in James' game from a fantasy perspective, especially after he improved his free-throw percentage to 78.0 last year. The King is still refining his jumper, but it didn't stop him from making 1.6 threes.

When the Cavs bigs were injured in January, James averaged 9.6 rebounds per game, showing his versatility.

Now that Cleveland is better as a team, James may not need to score as much, but you can still expect elite scoring, steals, and blocks numbers, and he could push his assist average above eight per game.

2. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder

Entering his third season, Druant is looking to keep his already impressive numbers growing. After making the switch to the three, KD rebounded more and scoring came easier.

Durant's shooting improvement was really impressive. He shot 42.2 percent from three after shooting 28.8 percent the previous year and he is nearly automatic from the stripe.

With good steal numbers and a decent amount of blocks, there is no reason Durant shouldn’t be targeted in the first half of the draft.

3. Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers

The system that Jim O'Brien has in place in Indiana has done wonders for Granger, who avoided a switch to power forward this summer.

With the green light to gun, Granger made 40.4 percent of his 6.7 threes per game and he could still improve on his 25.8 points per game, which is scary.

Granger has the size to rebound, he's an average passer, but his steals (1.0) and blocks (1.5) make up for any lack of assists. Granger did miss time with his first major injury last season but has been strong since coming back.

4. Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets

There are a few things to be worried about with Anthony. He missed 16 games last year (14 due to injury) and his scoring average has been declining for three straight seasons. I expect both trends to end.

Anthony wants to establish himself as one of the NBA's truly elite players. He improved his three-point shooting last year, averaging one per game for the first time, and he rebounds and passes more than expected.

5. Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics

The leader of the Celtics will keep leading with around 20 points per game to go with his five rebounds and a handful of assists. Paul doesn't have a real backup on Boston, and his minutes should remain above 35 per game.

Pierce isn't amongst league leaders in steals anymore but he is still good for one per game, he always converts from the stripe, and his 1.5 threes per game are appreciated.

6. Gerald Wallace, Charlotte Bobcats

*Buyer Beware* The Bobcats want to be better, but they haven't been adding much talent, which means Wallace will still be counted on to produce on both ends of the court in big minutes.

He's a strong scorer who gets to the stripe and he has averaged two steals per game over the past five years.

There are a few things to worry about, though. Wallace's career high in games is 72 and his career average in Charlotte is 66 per year. He also might be traded to a contender, which would most likely drop his scoring numbers down.

7. Caron Butler, Washington Wizards

*Buyer Beware* For three straight seasons, Butler has failed to play 70 or more games, and with his all-out style of play, there is no reason to assume he won't miss some time this year.

The Wiz return Gilbert Arenas and brought in more talent this year, which means Butler may not score as much, and his minutes may fall to below 35 per game.

The talent is there, he isn't a great three-point shooter but will take the shots, Butler rebounds, passes, and steals, but statistically he may have peaked.

8. Shawn Marion, Dallas Mavericks

Looking to resurrect his career in Dallas, Marion could be more valuable than owners think in 2009-10. He can still play above the rim, and should be close to a double-double in average.

Marion has been atrocious from three lately, but he could find a respectable rhythm like back in his Phoenix days.

The Matrix used to be a monster in steals and blocks. Although his numbers have slipped there is no reason to think he won't average more than one per game in each category.

Don’t expect him to play more than 35 minutes per game, but finally his price tag is inline with his value once again.

9. Hedo Turkoglu, Toronto Raptors

The Raptors spent big money on Turkoglu because they believe in him. Last year was a slight decline from his award-winning 2007-08, but the last two years represent a ceiling and floor for his fantasy expectations.

The Turkish baller has always been a good three-point shooter and recently he has hit the glass and passed at more than respectable rate for his position.

His field-goal percentage is questionable, and there isn't much in the way of defensive numbers, but Turkoglu has been flying under the radar this fantasy season.

10. Stephen Jackson, Golden State Warriors

*Buyer Beware* There is a huge risk factor involved with Jackson but he is one of the most versatile players in the NBA when healthy and focused.

There is a strong chance Jackson will be traded this year but until then he is good for points, rebounds, assists, steals, and threes by the bundle.

It's understandable if you pass on him, but he has been slipping in drafts, which means he could be a steal for your squad.

The Next Best

Rudy Gay, Memphis Grizzlies - On the verge of breaking into the NBA's elite, Memphis added Iverson and Randolph. How will Gay respond?

Ron Artest, Los Angles Lakers - Will easily convert on the open threes Ariza saw last season and should post a career high in assists.

Wilson Chandler, New York Knicks - Made great improvement in second year, should continue to do it all in several positions for NY.

Trevor Ariza, Houston Rockets - There will be a ton of opportunities for Ariza to register a mid-teens average with good threes, rebounds, and steals.

John Salmons, Chicago Bulls – This G/F logs good minutes, which leads to points and threes.

Richard Jefferson, San Antonio Spurs - Doesn't do much aside from score, but back-to-back years of 82 games make him a great value pick.

Corey Maggette, Golden State Warriors - *Buyer Beware* Off the bench he is a matchup nightmare, but his injury history is an owner's worst nightmare.

Thaddeus Young, Philadelphia 76ers - Will continue developing perimeter game but needs to be more willing to go down low.

Al Thornton, Los Angles Clippers - Strong rebounder and scores easily, will block shots too.

Mike Miller, Washington Wizards - *Buyer Beware* Poised for a bounce-back season, rebounds and passes better than expected.

Loul Deng, Chicago Bulls - Numbers have declined each of the past three seasons, can he stop the bleeding?

Andrei Kirilenko, Utah Jazz - Still good for blocks and steals.

Tayshaun Prince, Detroit Pistons - Won't wow in any category, but you know what you get.

Don't Sleep On

Danilo Gallinari, New York Knicks - Hasn't found stroke yet, but he will get his chances all year long.

Matt Barnes, Orlando Magic - Always finds a way to play for teams that let him gun; Orlando is no different.

Shane Battier, Houston Rockets - Could post career scoring numbers on thin Houston squad.

Joe Alexander, Milwaukee Bucks - Bucks spent a hefty pick on him; once healthy, he will get his shots.

Julian Wright, New Orleans Hornets - As a starter will get hustle stats, but points may not come easily.

Grant Hill, Phoenix Suns - Played 82 games last year and can still get the job done.

Terrence Williams, New Jersey Nets - Won't crush any category but will post full stat lines.

Rankings: PG | SG | PF | C

NBA Fantasy Basketball Rankings: Shooting Guards (SG) 2009-10

John Lorge — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 15:29:15 -0400

The first thing you want from your fantasy basketball shooting guard is scoring, but that’s not enough for most fantasy owners.

If you can’t pass, rebound, hit the three, and steal a few balls you won’t be on my fantasy roster.

Rankings: PG | SF | PF | C

The Top 10

1. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat

The Heat didn't get a whole lot better in terms of talent this summer, which means Wade will still have to will the team to victories.

Entering his prime, we could see another 30 point per game season from Wade where he is an elite rebounder and passer for either guard position.

Defensively his 2.2 steals and 1.3 blocks per game are outstanding, and he made over one three per game for the first time in his career. Just don't plan on winning many turnover battles with him.

2. Kobe Bryant, Los Angles Lakers

For each of the past four seasons Kobe has seen his points and minutes per game decline. He still posts amazing numbers, but with all of the talent around him Bryant does not need to carry the team anymore.

All that being said Bryant will still eclipse 25 points per game as well as five rebounds and five assists per game. He is a very good defender, gets to the stripe, and scores from three.

Bryant has also played 82 games for two straight seasons.

3. Brandon Roy, Portland Trailblazers

There is a chance Roy's scoring numbers have capped at 22.6 points per game, but in combination with over five assists and four rebounds that is a great fantasy effort.

Roy will get you at least one three-pointer and one steal per game, and he continues to get to the foul stripe more and more. If you're worried about turnovers he won't hurt you there either.

4. Joe Johnson, Atlanta Hawks

With numbers almost identical to Roy it can be tough picking between the two. One thing to consider is that the Hawks brought in Jamal Crawford this summer, another combo guard to share the ball with.

If Johnson doesn't play 40 minutes per game like he has since the 2003-04 season in Phoenix, he could see a dip in numbers, but nothing that should scare you away from his standout numbers.

5. Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia 76ers

After Philly said goodbye to Andre Miller they don't have a true point guard in the starting lineup, giving Iguodala a chance to improve on his 5.3 assists per game from last year.

The biggest concern with Iguodala is how poorly he started the year off last season when Elton Brand was on the court.

With Mo Cheeks gone, and the star duo having a chance to work together for a year, I think AI can still find a way to get his even if Brand is the first option in the half court.

As a plus he hasn't missed a game in two years.

6. Jason Richardson, Phoenix Suns

Two years ago Richardson led the NBA in threes—then came Larry Brown. Now that J-Rich is back in an offensive friendly system and the Suns want to get back to scoring, I like his chances at leading the league again.

Richardson has never been much of a passer, and it won't be expected of him with Nash around, but he can still hit the boards and generate steals like a top-notch fantasy SG.

7. Vince Carter, Orlando Magic

Moving to Orlando, Carter will be playing on the most talented team he has been on since his UNC days. That means Carter won't be expected to score 20 points per night, but it doesn't mean he won't try.

The Magic like hoisting the three and Carter has never been opposed to that. Even in his 30's Carter is still good for close to 80 games. He may see a decline in minutes, leading to a drop in rebounds and assists, but he is still a top 50 fantasy player.

8. Kevin Martin, Sacramento Kings

*Buyer Beware*—There is plenty to love about Martin in fantasy hoops. He is an elite scorer, who makes it rain from deep and does an excellent job of getting to the foul line.

There is also plenty to hate, including the fact that Martin missed 31 games last year, and 21 the year before. On top of that he won't help much in the way of rebounds or assists considering he plays almost 40 minutes per night, but he is good for a steal.

If you can handle the risk you will love his production.

9. Ben Gordon, Detroit Pistons

Off the bench or in the starting lineup Gordon always finds a way to get his. If the Pistons trade Rip Hamilton away at some point in the year, Gordon could best his 20.7 points per game from last year.

Although Gordon doesn't pass as much as he shoots, he still averaged 3.4 assists per game last year. He is a willing rebounder too.

Everyone knows they will get a plethora of threes from Gordon and they will get them every game, as he has played 80-plus games in four of five seasons.

10. O.J. Mayo, Memphis Grizzlies

As a rookie Mayo showed he could handle a full NBA season (82 G, 38 MPG) and get his shot off all over the court. He is a very good three point shooter and only bounced off the rookie wall a few times in the middle of the year.

You may have been impressed with the combo guard's 3.8 rebounds per game but his 3.2 assists per game were slightly less than expected.

Even with improved offense around him I see Mayo's game progressing which means another high teens scoring average and very good percentages.

Next Best

Eric Gordon, Los Angles Clippers

There were a lot of doubters on Gordon entering the year but he was productive in big minutes as a rookie. He plays above the rim and gets to the free throw line, on top of an outstanding deep shot.

J.R. Smith, Denver Nuggets

The sky's the limit for J.R. He should eclipse 30 MPG for the first time in his career. Inconsistent production can be frustrating, but the big games make him worthwhile.

Ray Allen, Boston Celtics

Still a leader in threes, he scores effortlessly but his minutes should dwindle come fantasy playoff time.

Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs

*Buyer Beware*—Fills the stat sheet but injury concerns may have him sitting more than owners would like.

Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks

Sixth man is worth a starting role in fantasy with his scoring and three point production. He plays a lot of games and can pass when needed.

Michael Redd, Milwaukee Bucks

*Buyer Beware* The Bucks will force feed him until he goes down, 52 games per year average over the last three.

Nate Robinson, New York Knicks

Out to prove numbers were no fluke, Robinson scores from deep, passes, steals, and will get boards.

Randy Foye, Washington Wizards

*Buyer Beware*—Plagued with injuries for two years, he can be an effective combo guard, but isn't that what Arenas is?

Jamal Crawford, Atlanta Hawks

Role has not been defined in Atlanta but he is one of the NBA's top offensive players.

Richard Hamilton, Detroit Pistons

Still one of the NBA's best jump shooters, Rip also gets more assists than expected.

Josh Howard, Dallas Mavericks

*Buyer Beware*—Ankle is bothering him as we speak, averages are outstanding but will frustrate you throughout the year.

Leandro Barbosa, Phoenix Suns

Combo guard wants to increase his role in the Suns O.

Don't Sleep On

Courtney Lee, New Jersey Nets

High expectations in NJ for the second year pro. Points, threes, and steals will be there.

Ronnie Brewer, Utah Jazz

Increased role led to increased production in 2008-09, he will "steal" you a few wins.

Brandon Rush, Indiana Pacers

As long as Dunleavy is out Rush will be Granger's sidekick on the wing.

Anthony Morrow, Golden State Warriors

While everyone is fighting in Oakland, Morrow is draining threes.

Chris Douglas-Roberts, New Jersey Nets

Possible sixth man role could result in scoring production like we saw back in college.

Kirk Hinrich, Chicago Bulls

Will consume some of the threes Gordon left behind. Can pass too.

Larry Hughes, New York Knicks

*Buyer Beware*—Ready to post a career high in threes but his best days are behind him.

Tracy McGrady, Houston Rockets

*Buyer Beware*—When he comes back he will star on the Rockets offense, but I'm betting he will be out again.

Rankings: PG | SF | PF | C

NBA Fantasy Basketball Rankings: Point Guards (PG) 2009-10

John Lorge — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:59:53 -0400

Picking the point guards for your fantasy basketball team can make or break your season. These are the guys responsible for most of your team’s assists, but if you only get a guy who dishes the rock, you may come up short on other categories.

Follow these rankings and be sure to align the PGs strengths with the overall makeup of your team.

Rankings: SG | SF | PF | C

The Top 10

1. Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets—Assists, points, steals, rebounds—Chris Paul cannot be stopped, which is why he is the top fantasy player entering the 2009-10 season.

Last year, Paul shot about 50 percent for the first time in his career and there are no signs of his production dropping off. The one knock on Paul is that he hasn't developed a strong three point shot, and because he penetrates so well he may never rely on the three.

2. Deron Williams, Utah Jazz—For the first time in his career, Williams failed to play 80 games last year when he suited up for 68 due to an ankle injury to start the season. The injury did not nag him throughout the season and you can expect Williams to play at an elite level for the entire season.

You can count on Williams to attack 20 and 10, he doesn't rebound much because the Jazz have several players who do that, but he does add acceptable defensive numbers for a point guard (1.1 SPG). Williams isn't shy about shooting threes and if he can replicate the high-30 to low-40 percentage that he has hit a few times he may surprise you from deep.

3. Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns—The MVP days are long behind Nash, but he is still good for elite fantasy production. The Suns want to pick the tempo back up, which means more possession for Nash to get back above 10 assists per game after failing to do so for the first time in four years.

Nash does not steal many balls and he is somewhat turnover-prone, but he is one of the most accurate shooters in the NBA and he should make over two threes per game this year.

4. Devin Harris, New Jersey Nets—After a questionable transition to New Jersey two years ago, Harris exploded on the scene in his first full season with the Nets. Along with a career best 6.9 assists and 21.3 points per game, Harris was fourth in the NBA with 7.2 free throws made per game—something that may be instrumental if your league settings call for it.

The biggest problem with Harris was that he only played 69 games last year and 64 the year before, but that is not enough to keep him off your roster, especially with him primed to make more threes than ever in his career.

5. Chauncey Billups, Denver Nuggets—The move home to Denver was an easy one for Billups and now that he is comfortable in George Karl's up-tempo offense—I expect him to have another successful year.

Only once before has Billups attempted more threes than he did in 77 games with the Nuggets last year and he has been stealing more balls as he gets older. Due to great conditioning fantasy owners have been able to count on Billups all year long, but if the Nuggets have their playoff spot locked up his numbers may dwindle in April.

6. Gilbert Arenas, Washington Wizards—*Buyer Beware*—Even if Arenas minutes per game floats around 30, it should be enough time for him to score 20 points per game with an assist average between five and seven per game.

Flip Saunders wants Gilbert to be Gilbert this year, but Agent Zero may be done shooting 30-foot threes now that he has a new outlook on the game. Ultimately, his knees and finger will scare me too much unless I can get him at a discount.

7. Baron Davis, Los Angles Clippers—*Buyer Beware*—Fantasy owners living in the 20 points per game days need to realize that's not the plan in LA, but Davis can still be a fantasy stud this year.

I am expecting a scoring average closer to 20 than 15 and his assists will challenge eight per game. Davis is very good at generating steals; he hits threes and he should be playing better basketball overall for a more competitive Clippers team in 2009-10.

8. Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks—In 110 games with the Mavs, Kidd has failed to average double digits in scoring, but that is the only knock on his production. The most impressive part of Kidd’s game is that he has taken advantage of open looks from behind the arc, converting on 131 of his 323 attempts last year.

Kidd can still bring home the triple-double, he is aggressive in stealing the basketball, and he converts from the stripe, all while maintaining low turnover numbers.

9. Jose Calderon, Toronto Raptors—Nothing will wow you about Calderon's game, but he is the most efficient player in the NBA. If you are building a team that wins with low turnovers and great percentages, he is the point guard for you.

Calderon did have to fight through injuries last season, but he still posted career best averages in almost every category, including 98.1 percent shooting from the stripe.

10. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls—With Ben Gordon gone, Rose will have the ball in his hands even more which will give him a chance to improve on his 16.8 points and 6.3 assists per game as a rookie.

A very good athlete, Rose can rebound, but his 0.8 steals per game were a disappointment, and he has a long way to go on his deep ball. Ultimately, the bulk load of points and assists give Rose the edge in rounding out the top-10.

Next Best

Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics—Rondo does everything Kidd does except threes and free throw percentage, he is poised for a great year.

Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder—He may not add too much to his 16.1 points per game as a starter, but Westbrook has unlimited potential in assists and steals, and he rebounds well too.

Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs—No complaints with his production (aside from no three ball) but Parker's ankle has me worried, either his minutes or games will take the hit.

Monta Ellis, Golden State Warriors—*Buyer Beware*—May have an elite fantasy season, but his career has been in a downward spiral ever since the crash. Buy at a discount.

Jameer Nelson, Orlando Magic—Doesn't have a serious risk of re-injury, Nelson is great from three but only solid to good everywhere else.

Mo Williams, Cleveland Cavaliers—The Cavs added depth this summer which means less pressure on Williams and more open looks from three.

Mike Bibby, Atlanta Hawks—The Hawks added two players to their backcourt, but Bibby is still the best point guard of the bunch.

T.J. Ford, Indiana Pacers—Always an injury risk, but Ford is a good pick in the Pacers offense.

Raymond Felton, Charlotte Bobcats—Consistent career line means what you see is what you get, he might get traded mid-season too—for better or worse.

Andre Miller, Portland Trailblazers—Unhappy in Portland already, if he's not a starter his production won't match his fantasy price tag.

Don't Sleep On

Tyreke Evans, Sacramento Kings—Will make strong push for ROY from day one.

Chris Duhon - New York Knicks—If you lack threes and/or assists this is your man late in the draft.

Allen Iverson, Memphis Grizzlies—His role hasn't been defined yet, but AI wants to be on the court and the Grizz want people in the seats—potential is worth the pick.

Aaron Brooks, Houston Rockets—Won't post traditional PG numbers, but has an explosive scoring ability from inside and out.

Rodney Stuckey, Detroit Pistons—Still developing, the addition of Gordon means less ball handling for the big combo-guard.

Louis Williams, Philadelphia 76ers—Will start at the point for Philly, willingness to shoot on any possession is better for fantasy owners than his teammates.

DJ Augustine, Charlotte Bobcats—If Felton hits the road, D.J. will hover right below the fantasy elite.

Mario Chalmers, Miami Heat—Low assists alongside Wade, but he hits threes (1.4) and gets steals (2.0).

Rankings: SG | SF | PF | C

10 NBA Rookies Making a Difference from Day One

John Lorge — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 22:57:46 -0400

Some NBA players will tell you how tough it is to adjust to the NBA. Other players will tell you it was a fairly smooth transition.

The difference between the two usually has to do with how successful players are as rookies.

In the 2008-09 season the rookies got off to a hot start and many finished strong. Here are 10 rookies who should have the same impact.

1. Tyreke Evans, Sacramento Kings

The Kings want Evans to be the man and that means they're going to let him develop on the court. As one of the bigger point guards in the NBA Evans won't have trouble getting his shots whether its on a crafty lay-in or a pull-up jumper.

Aside from lacking elite athleticism, the main knock on Evans entering the NBA is that he lacks true point guard skills. Through Summer League and the pre-season those concerns have been affirmed but Evans does have one of the NBA's best shooters to defer to in Kevin Martin.

In a point guard heavy draft the Kings had the first crack at the position group and Evans is the leader for the Rookie of the Year award.

2. Blake Griffin, Los Angles Clippers

Even though he is a rookie, Griffin is one of the most talented players in the NBA. If you're looking for a mismatch there is a good chance Griffin has it—he can face-up and dribble around 4's and post-up the 3's.

The Clippers do need Griffin but it looks like they will start him on the bench behind a frontcourt trio of Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, and Al Thornton. That's a frontcourt that missed 82 games last year, a season's worth.

3. James Harden, Oklahoma City Thunder

If Harden wasn't playing along side Kevin Durant he would be the clear-cut favorite for the Rookie of the Year Award.

With long arms and a deceptive athleticism the former Sun Devil attacks the rim and he is a very good defender for a rookie.

OKC's coach Scott Brooks his youth make strides in their progression last season and I expect him to do the same with Harden.

4. DeJuan Blair, San Antonio Spurs

In what was considered to be a weak draft year by top analysts, how does the Big East Player of the Year slip to the 37th overall pick?

That is a question that is going to keep Blair motivated for years. The concerns about Blair's health and conditioning weren't enough to keep the Spurs from investing a second pick, and in a tough economy the move is looking like pure gold.

Don't expect Blair to register 30 minutes or average a double-double, but he will be one of the NBA's most productive players per minute. With his long arms and hustle Blair is an aggressive rebounder, especially on offense, and can score on bigger opponents routinely.

When the Spurs need a jolt off the bench Blair will be their man.

5. Terrence Williams, New Jersey Nets

For four years at Louisville I have said Williams' game is made for the NBA and finally we will get to see him in open-court action.

The eighth pick in the draft may never develop into a 20 PPG scorer but he will generate some triple-doubles, maybe even as a rookie.

Williams is an elite athlete, devastating off the break. He will be able to play the point forward position in combination with Devin Harris, filling some of the play making void left by Vince Carter.

6. Chase Budinger, Houston Rockets

The Rockets will be hurting for offensive production this season and the silky-smooth shooting Budinger is ready to step-up and deliver.

In five games of Summer League action the former Arizona Wildcat averaged 17.8 PPG, shooting 68.1 percent from the field, 72.7 percent from three, and 94.4 percent from the stripe.

The former high school volleyball standout glides up the field and he can sky above the hoop with the best of them. The questions about his intensity and commitment should be answered quickly.

7. Brandon Jennings, Milwaukee Bucks

While the drafting of Jennings was enough to run Ramon Sessions out of town starting point guard Luke Ridnour remains, and he is the only thing sitting between the former prep-to-Euro and a legitimate shot at the Rookie of the Year Award.

With elite speed and quickness Jennings will be tough to stop off the bench. He carries a better than advertised scoring ability and is dedicated to creating scoring opportunities for his teammates.

The Bucks are still counting on some injury prone vets, but if/when those guys go down the youth revolution in Milwaukee will be ready.

8. DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors

Air Canada is back but this time it comes in the form of a 20 year old kid from Compton, CA. DeRozan is an extreme competitor and he plays smart basketball, something not usually associated with a young flyer.

Behind Chris Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu don't expect the Raptors to be running the offense through DeRozan but that will allow him to casually blend in, only to explode on opponents.

He is still developing a three point shot but once that comes DeRozan will be one of the most dangerous inside-out guards in the NBA.

9. Jonny Flynn, Minnesota Timberwolves

In one of the most interesting moves in NBA history the Timberwolves spent three first round picks on point guards. They traded one to Denver (TY Lawson), one is staying overseas (Ricky Rubio), and Flynn will be seen in Minnesota.

The show won't be Flynn's completely though, Minnesota did bring in Ramon Sessions, but the two could even co-exists on the court together. That’s right Flynn believes he can play off the ball, and if Nate Robinson can do it, why can't Flynn and his 40-inch vertical?

If the T-Wolves are able to keep games close they will be counting on the heart and determination of Flynn to earn them some tough victories.

10. Jrue Holiday, Philadelphia 76ers

After three seasons and back-to-back playoff appearances the Sixers said goodbye to Andre Miller, affirming that their draft pick out of UCLA is the team's point guard of the future.

Holiday isn't expected to immediately step-in as the starter, that will be Lou Williams' job, but he will be expected to contribute and he may be the starter by the midway point.

At times Holiday got lost in the pack during pre-draft festivities but he has good size, is a strong defender, and his deep shot has looked better than expected in pre-season.

Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow Rehab NFL Draft Stock, Jevan Snead Ailing

John Lorge — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 09:46:13 -0400

In this tough economy, NFL QB money is looking better than ever which makes it even more amazing that two Heisman winners, Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford, decided to return to school in 2009.

Not only is the cash greener on the other side of the fence, but when you stay in college you risk getting injured and losing it all. Something Tebow and Bradford have already had to worry about this season.

I considered the two QB's four of the players who had the most to prove to NFL scouts entering the season (along with LaGarrette Blount) and they will be under a close watch for the remainder of the season.

Bradford Bests Baylor Bears But Is He The Best QB?

Last April, Bradford would have been the top pick of the 2009 NFL Draft. Instead, he returned to Norman, OK and almost lost it all when he injured his shoulder against BYU in the season opener.

I have mixed emotions about Bradford's return to the helm. His 27-of-49 passing was 12.7 percentage points lower than his completion percentage in 2008. He was able to lead Oklahoma to a decisive 33-7 victory, but the Bears have never beat the Sooners and Bradford didn't register his lone touchdown pass until the four-minute mark in the fourth quarter.

The Sooners struggled to finish the Bears off, kicking four field goals in the second half.

Standing tall in the pocket Bradford did show elite accuracy at times but Baylor couldn't muster any serious pressure. Bradford also tweaked his leg in the first quarter and finished the day with -5 rushing yards on three carries.

After the National Championship loss to Florida, I had serious doubts about Bradford's ability to throw under pressure, and all of my concerns still exists. I have to imagine I'm not the only one with Bradford behind someone on their draft board.

Hard Headed Tebow Leads By Example

As the heart and soul of the Florida Gators, it was important for Tebow to show he is 100 percent, not only for his teammates, but also for NFL scouts.

Not once did I see Tebow shy away from contact against LSU. He ran for tough yards, stepped into throws when pressured, and never seemed to have a woozy moment on the field.

While Tebow's head seemed strong, all of the questions about his skills are still there. He may not have time to get his grenade toss wined-up off in the NFL, and Urban Myers' offense gives Tebow extra time to make reads.

Nobody will question his will to win, but Tebow did throw an errant pick in crunch time, and the way NFL teams have been driving in the fourth quarter this season, I'm not sure he could afford that in the League.

There is still hope for Tim Tebow as an NFL quarterback, even in a non-wildcat setting, but he may have to sit a year or two to adjust.

Snead Shows True Colors Against SEC Elite

Don't believe the hype. Jevan Snead's NFL stock took a huge hit when he failed to perform in prime time against a good South Carolina defense on Sept. 24. The going got worse when Ole Miss hosted Alabama last Saturday.

Snead connected on 11-of-34 passes, dropping his season completion percentage to 46.8. Of the four interceptions he threw two were due to his teammates, but by failing to throw a TD it brought his TD-to-INT ratio to 1-to-1 on the year.

If you’re judging his arm strength, it's understandable that someone would have him as the top quarterback prospect, but Snead lacks fire and his accuracy is unrefined. Another year in the SEC would do him some good.

Top 10 QB Prospects

1. Jake Locker - Improvements in accuracy and decision making is surprising, if he had more competent receivers his completion percentage would be much better.

2. Colt McCoy - Completion percentage over the past two years is impressive in any system.

3. Sam Bradford - Games against Texas (Oct. 17) and Nebraska (Nov. 7) will show how he does with a player in his face.

4. Tony Pike - Size matters in the NFL and Pike is biggest of the bunch.

5. Jimmy Clausen - Accuracy and decision making is strong, but he is unusually un-athletic.

6. Jevan Snead - Has dug himself a deep ditch with poor performances, can he dig himself out?

7. Tim Tebow - Doesn't get to display NFL skills on a regular basis but there’s something to be said about four years of success and stats.

8. Dan LeFevour - Four years of film has given the scouts a chance to see his progression, but it has also exposed his flaws.

9. Tim Hiller - On any given day he can be the best QB in the country but durability has teams worried.

10. Case Keenum - Quickly climbing up draft boards but seems like a prime candidate to return to school.

Testing The Waters: First Two Fantasy Basketball Drafts

John Lorge — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 14:57:02 -0400

Before I can finalize my fantasy basketball player rankings I always have to participate in a few drafts to get a feel for things. Mock drafts aren't as big in the fantasy basketball world and what’s the point in a mock anyway? We play to win the games!

The first league I joined was an auto-pick league. I join one every year, pre-rank my players, and let the computer figure it out to get an initial pulse.

After the auto-pick league I did my first live draft. Here's how my teams shook out in both leagues.

League 1

1. (11) Amar'e Stoudemire - STAT at 11? I'm buying. The Suns are picking the tempo back up and Stoudemire has a new dedication to the game after almost losing his eye.

2. (14) Deron Williams - In four seasons Williams has seen his FT percentage go from 70.4 to 84.9, just one example of how his work ethic is paying off.

3. (35) Josh Smith - Maybe a little early for Smith but I am expecting a bounce back year, especially in blocks where he averaged less than two per game for the first time in his career.

4. (38) Jason Richardson - With Shaq and Matt Barnes gone there will be more shots to go around and with the Suns shooting more in general I expect Richardson to finish top five in threes.

5. (59) Charlie Villanueva - The Pistons are hurting in the post and I think Villanueva will be playing minutes like never before in his NBA career.

6. (62) Al Harrington - Quietly Harrington should be one of the most productive players in the NBA with threes, points, and rebounds.

7. (83) Spencer Hawes - Has the potential to be an elite NBA center and may average one three per game. Still needs to improve shot blocking ability.

8. (86) Ron Artest - He will see a dip in scoring but I expect a career high in assists and he should steal over two balls per game.

9. (107) Michael Beasley - A bit of a gamble with the offseason turmoil but he is very good at exploiting matchups and he should be the second option on O.

10. (110) Allen Iverson - Still unsure what role AI will play and how much he will play but his points, assists, and steals should make him worth the 10th round pick.

11. (131) Tyreke Evans - Front-runner for ROY, Evans won't get a lot of assists but he can score on most PGs with ease.

12. (134) Kirk Hinrich - I dropped him for Channing Frye but Hinrich's numbers will see a boost now that Ben Gordon is out of the rotation.

13. (155) Joe Alexander - The Bucks passed on a lot when they selected Alexander, they need to develop him on the court in 2009-10.

League 2

1. (8) Kevin Durant - Can Durant get better? Among other things he is one of the deadliest three point shooters in the NBA at 42.2 percent last year and he just turned 21.

2. (17) Dwight Howard - I concede turnovers in every league and I can do without FT percentage if it means having the leagues best rebounder, shot blocker, and game dunker.

3. (32) Jason Kidd - I like that Kidd plays a lot of games, gets a lot of assists, steals, rebounds, and threes, and people pass on him because he doesn't score.

4. (41) Baron Davis - There is a new mojo in LA and Davis should be playing with some of that old fire. Hopefully he can stay on the court.

5. (56) Rajon Rondo - Has all the things I like about Kidd without the threes, but on the positive his numbers are still going up.

6. (65) Charlie Villanueva - His ability to hit the three makes him more than your average power forward.

7. (80) John Salmons - Salmons will be Rose's go to man on offense. His non-scoring numbers aren't great but there is some production there.

8. (89) Wilson Chandler - He can play SG-to-PF in some formats and his numbers represent that ability. Gotta love that he plays in New York too.

9. (104) Jason Thompson - Will have a shot at a double-double average as a full time starter, good shooting percentages is a plus.

10. (113) Chris Duhon - Should rank amongst league leaders in assists and he can hit threes. On my PG-heavy roster he will be trade bait.

11. (128) Greg Oden - Could be one of the real steals this season, especially with centers at a premium. Oden has looked good in pre-season and makes things look easy at times.

12. (137) Tyreke Evans - With his long arms I expect Evans to have good rebound and block numbers for a PG and he is god at generating steals.

13. (152) Aaron Brooks - Brooks will have an opportunity to be the Rockets leading scorer for the first few months of the year, maybe even the entire season.

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