Bleacher Report - Articles by Rick Brunetti

Talent Not Intangibles Will Lead the Nuggets to Western Conference Crown

Rick Brunetti — Tue, 19 May 2009 16:08:24 -0400

Coming into the Western Conference Championship which starts this evening (Tip time 9:00 p.m. EST on ESPN), all the pundits that are predicting the Nuggets will win are doing so based on intangibles rather then on a position-by-position breakdown. They believe the Nuggets hustle, the intimidation factor, and the fact that the Lakers have been taking games off will lift the Nuggets past the 65 win Lakers team.

However, if you look at it position-by-position, the Nuggets are a lot closer to the Lakers talent than many are giving them credit for.

Center: Andrew Bynum vs. Nene

At first glance, the size difference here leans towards the Lakers with Bynum coming in at 7’1" 280 pounds, and Nene being only 6’11" and 260 pounds. However, size isn’t all that matters when it comes to a strong inside game.

Nene use his superior quickness and foot speed to offset larger centers making physical tools a virtual wash in this matchup. Statistically, this isn’t even close; Nene is outscoring and outrebounding Bynum by over a 2-to-1 ratio. I think the Lakers second round matchup was much tougher than the Nuggets, though, so these stats are a bit deceiving.

With that being said, Nene is playing by far the best basketball of his career and Bynum has struggled against sub-par inside players and still doesn’t look to be 100 percent healthy.

2009 Playoffs Statistics Points Per Game—Rebounds Per Game—Blocks Per Game

Nene 12.5 7.3 .8

Bynum 5.6 3.8 .8

Advantage: Nuggets

Power Forward: Gasol vs. Martin

Again, the Lakers have a size advantage with this matchup with Gasol coming in at 7’0" 250 pounds and Martin at 6’9" 240 pounds. This is a battle of two totally different power forwards, though.

Gasol has a finesse European style of play to go up against Martin's smack-you-in-the-mouth-and-step-on-your-throat style. The Nuggets prefer to play man-to-man with very little double teaming to try and minimize second chance rebounds and open shooters.

It will be interesting to see how Martin will play against the much larger Gasol. Statistically, Gasol has a huge advantage in both points and rebounds almost reversing the center's role, as Gasol is outperforming Martin at a 2-to-1 clip.

Martin is not on the floor for offense, though. He is one of two Nuggets starters who have a job almost strictly due to his defensive prowess. However, if the Nuggets don’t help Martin, Gasol should have a huge series against the Nuggets.

2009 Playoffs Statistics Points Per Game—Rebounds Per Game—Blocks Per Game

Martin 9.9 5.1 .6

Gasol 18.5 10.8 1.8

Advantage: Lakers

Small Forward: Anthony vs. Ariza

There are two matchups that don’t really require a lot of explanations as to why the pendulum swings in one way. This one obviously leans towards the Nuggets. Melo is playing by far the best basketball of his career right now. He is actually focusing on defense, has extended his shooting range, and unlike previous years, he is embracing his teammates.

He has always been a willing passer, but this year (especially late in the season) he actually became an eager passer. His maturity both on and off the court is the main reason the Nuggets are in this position.

Ariza is a nice compliment to the Lakers starting lineup, as he is the only one of the five that is on the floor to be a defensive stopper. However, Melo’s new found three-point ability makes him virtually defenseless.

2009 Playoffs Statistics Points Per Game—Rebounds Per Game—Assists Per Game

Anthony 27.0 6.3 4.3

Ariza 10.9 3.8 2.9

Advantage: Nuggets

Shooting Guard: Jones vs. Bryant

Just like the small forward matchup, the advantage here is obviously Kobe’s. Kobe is a great scorer, great defender, and a great leader (holy crap he talks a lot, though [see Doin' Work by Spike Lee]).

Kobe is still the best player in the NBA and at any time has the ability to drop 60. Three titles could easily be five right now, and if he and Shaq hadn’t split up two years early, it could be seven. In other words, Kobe could—and in many ways should—have more championships than some gentleman named Jordan…Enough said.

Jones is an average shooter at best, but has an endless motor and loves to play defense. It will be his job to man up Kobe and use up his fouls wisely.

2009 Playoffs Statistics Points Per Game—Rebounds Per Game—Assists Per Game

Jones 7.6 2.4 .4

Bryant 27.4 5.0 4.5

Advantage: Lakers

Point Guard: Billups vs. Fisher

I mentioned before how Melo’s improvements are why the Nuggets are in their current situation. The main reason Melo improved is because of the addition of Billups.

Billups provides leadership on and off the court and sets a great example of how to be an NBA player for both Melo and J.R Smith. On the court he just seems to know what his team needs. If they need him to be a scorer, he scores; if they need him to be a distributor, he distributes.

Billups isn’t outstanding at any one particular aspect to basketball, but he is great at pretty much everything. Fisher has really struggled through most of the postseason. He is shooting only 19 percent from the three point this postseason, while Billups has converted on 54 percent of his.

Bottom line, if the Lakers are going to beat the Nuggets, Fisher needs to be better.

2009 Playoffs Statistics Points Per Game—Rebounds Per Game—Assists Per Game

Billups 22.1 3.8 7.3

Fisher 7.2 1.7 2.0

Advantage: Nuggets

Bench: Andersen, Carter, Smith, and Kleiza vs. Brown, Farmar, Walton, and Vujacic

The Lakers have a solid bench, which includes players with an interesting skill set. Walton is a fantastic passer, Farmar is very quick, and Vujacic has the ability to knock down the long ball. Unfortunately for them, they are running into quite possibly the best bench in the NBA. Andersen led the league this season in blocks per minute and instantly brings up the energy when he comes onto the floor, especially while playing at home.

J.R Smith has all the talent in the world and could one day be in the All-Star game. If he plays smart defense and doesn’t shoot too many half court jump shots, he will play a big role in this series.

Statistically speaking, the Nuggets win in every major category: scoring, rebounding, assists, and blocked shots. Many times when they enter the game, they increase the point differential. There are not a lot of benches in the NBA who can make that claim.

2009 Playoffs Statistics Points Per Game—Rebounds Per Game—Assists Per Game

Nuggets Bench 33.1 11.4 6.8

Lakers Bench 20.6 6.4 6.5

Advantage: Nuggets

Scorecard:

	Nuggets	Lakers
Point Guard	X
Shooting Guard		X
Small Forward	X
Power Forward		X
Center	X
Bench	X
Overall	X

Prediction:

The Nuggets have won 16 home games in a row and last lost a home game on March 9. The high altitude and ruckus fans have combined to make this a huge home court advantage. I do not see the Nuggets losing a home game in this series, while I see them splitting the first two games of the series in LA.

Thus, I foresee the Nuggets wrapping up the series in Game Six in Denver with a 4-2 series.

So Far So...WHY? Broncos' First Day Draft Grades

Rick Brunetti — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 23:33:28 -0400

The first day of the Denver Broncos' 2009 draft has been anything but the miracle that new head coach Josh McDaniels needed.

Here is a rundown of the Broncos' picks so far.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia (First Round, 12th pick)

At first this pick appears confusing, as the Broncos need to come out of this draft with front seven starters on defense. Now the Broncos have 2,333,256 running backs on our roster...

But after it settled in, I was okay with it. Moreno's a playmaker, and they really haven't had a playmaker at running back since Clinton Portis left town. Hopefully they can get some big plays out of the running game now!

Considering what transpired in the draft prior to them picking, there weren't any value picks on the defensive side of the ball that would fit their new scheme. Brian Orakpo, the defensive end from Texas, is a solid defensive end prospect, but not for a 3-4 defense (I don't think he can play at outside linebacker in the NFL). Brian Cushing, the linebacker from USC, would have been a large reach at No. 12 as well.

Pick Grade: B

I am docking their grade on this pick due to their inability to either move up for B.J. Raji (DT out of Boston College) or Aaron Curry (OLB from Wake Forest).

Robert Ayers, DE/OLB, Tennessee (First Round, 18th Pick)

He has the potential to play at outside linebacker in the 3-4 defense opposite D.J. Williams. He doesn't have "huge" sack numbers in college, which is concerning (only eight sacks in three years of college) but had a lot of tackles for losses (30.5), so that shows he does get penetration.

Ayers is the most well rounded of the defensive ends predicted to go in the first round this year and very well could end up being the best defensive player to come out of this draft. He will be on the field on all three defensive downs as he can stop the run and rush the passer.

This was a good value pick. The Broncos needed a hybrid DE/OLB to play in the 3-4 scheme, and there were talks of them taking Ayers at No. 12. Getting him at 18 is solid.

Pick Grade: B+

Solid pickup getting Ayers in towards middle/end of the first round

Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest (Second Round, 37th Pick)

Pardon my pig Latin, but what the uckFey were the Denver Broncos thinking?

They traded a first round pick from next year (I hear it's their natural pick, NOT the one they got from the Bears) for a 5'9" cornerback who is also slow (4.5+ 40-yard dash). Seriously, McDumbass and Brian Xanders better hope he turns out to be better than most think he will be.

Smith is a decent player who does have big play potential (recorded over 20 interceptions in his college career), but he is not a top 10 draft pick (which is basically what the Broncos gave up to get him).

Pick Grade: F

If I could give them a grade lower than an F here, I would. Smith is going to be a nickel corner in the NFL, and the Broncos gave up far too much to get him here. This is the type of pick that could haunt this franchise for the next 10 years. Rey Maualuga from USC (who went with the very next pick) would have made a lot more sense—still not worth a top 10 pick, but a better value.

Darcel McBath, SS, Texas Tech (Second Round, 48th Pick)

He had a good college career at Texas Tech, but he's not a very big hitter, which is something I like safeties to posses. I was hoping they would go with Fili Moala with this pick (the DT out of USC).

Pick Grade: C-

With players available such as William Moore (safety out of Missouri) and Fili Moala (DT out of USC), there were better picks to be made at this spot.

Richard Quinn, TE, North Carolina (Second Round, 64th Pick)

Quinn is the second-best blocking tight end in this year's draft behind Brandon Pettigrew (the Lions' second pick of the first round) and has decent hands for somebody his size (270, 6'4"). He reminds me of Daniel Graham. This draft has shown me that the Broncos intend on being run heavy next year and using a lot of two-TE sets with Graham blocking on one side, Quinn on the other.

This also spells DOOM for Tony Scheffler, who I see being dropped early next week. That 2006 draft is looking worse and worse as this offseason progresses.

Pick Grade: C

To me he is a mirror image of the Broncos' other tight end, Daniel Graham, which is great if you want to be a running team. He didn't have a lot of production in the passing game in college, but that's largely due to the fact that the Tar Heels had three NFL caliber wideouts who were the focus in the passing game. He displayed good hands at the combine.

Bottom line, I give the Broncos a D- for the first day of this draft. In free agency the Broncos signed three defensive backs (Brian Dawkins from the Eagles, Andre' Goodman and Renaldo Hill from the Dolphins) for $47 million and three running backs (Correll Buckhalter from the Eagles, J.J. Arrington from the Cardinals, and LaMont Jordan from the Patriots) for $44 million.

Naturally, the Broncos used three of their first five picks on these positions.

They also gave up a potential top five pick for next year's draft (which I thought was going to be used for our future QB).

The Jay Cutler trade was tolerable due to their ability to try to replace him in next year's draft. I thought they would give Kyle Orton a season to see if he was worthy of being our QB of the future, and if we struggled, we would use next year's pick on either Colt McCoy out of Texas or Sam Bradford from Oklahoma. That option is now gone

This draft has cost McDaniels his throwaway year. If they don't make the playoffs this season—which based on their schedule and their transition to a new scheme, they won't—then one of the youngest coaches in NFL history could also become the youngest fired head coach in NFL history.

Broncos-Chiefs: Okay, So the Sun Did Come up This Morning

Rick Brunetti — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 06:49:54 -0400

Okay, so my wife was right, and the sun did manage to come up this morning, despite the Broncos showing in yesterday's game against the Chiefs. However, I have noticed that Monday mornings are even more unbearable when you sit across the hall from an avid Chiefs fan the morning after an inexcusable loss to the dog butt Missouri Indian Heads.

In losing this game, the Broncos allowed the Chiefs to break their 12-game regular-season losing streak [and also crushed my dreams of the first ever 0-16 record, go RAMS, the imperfect season is still within your reach!)

So who is to blame here? Did the Broncos' offense finally show weaknesses? Should they own this loss? Did the Broncos' defense’s lack of, umm...defense finally overcome our offense, and should they take the blame for this loss?

Is our special-teams coach [Scott O'Brien] to blame for the constant kick-off coverage breakdowns? [Do the announcers [Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf] from CBS that worked the Bronco/Chiefs games have to update their resumes after stuttering through another broadcast {Greg Gumbel says, “Err, I guess were supposed to be announcing the Chiefs defensive starters, huh”}?].

Yes, yes, yes, and holy crap yes.

Two forced fumbles, two interceptions, and five field-goal attempts later, and the explosive Broncos offense looked more like the Jake Plummer infected offenses from the past. You remember them; they were the great offenses between the 20s but couldn’t score a touchdown to save their lives.

Oh, and on Marshall's fumble [which was recovered and returned to the two-yard line], what kind of a play was that? I heard a story about Mark Schlereth from Super Bowl 32.

The Broncos recovered a fumble on a kickoff return, and on the next play, the Broncos ran a fake-counter pass. The problem was that they hadn’t yet run a counter, so the defense was prepared for it and intercepted it.

The point is, before you run a gadget fake off of a play, you should set the play up first...Jeremy Bates [the Broncos offensive play caller] has had a fantastic year so far, but this play was definitely a “thing that makes you go hrmm” call.

Bottom line, if the Broncos had not turned the ball over four times, we would have won the game.

Coming into this week, I was one of the suckers that believed that a lot of the Broncos' defensive woes were due to the level of competition they were competing against. The Raiders scored a bunch in the fourth quarter of game, one due to our defense playing off of the receivers.

The Charges are the third-ranked offense in the league, and thus they played accordingly against the Broncos. The Saints have Reggie Bush, who finally has started breaking off explosive plays like he did in college [on a side note, do you think he was making more money while at USC or with the Saints {things that make you go hrmm}?].

But the Chiefs...Really? Coming into Week Four, the anemic Indian Head offense had scored 32 points in the first three weeks of the season [against the Patriots, Raiders, and Falcons...Not exactly world beaters].

They managed to pile up 213 rushing yards and 33 points against the Broncos. If Larry Johnson played the Broncos every week, he would be a first ballot Hall of Famer [he has rushed for at least 126 yards in each of his five starts against Denver).

On Sunday, he rushed for 198 yards and two touchdowns; in fact, I think I just saw him break off another 50 yard run! The Broncos need to find a defensive identity, and playing in a 3-4 defense is not it. They do not have the defensive lineman to run this type of defense.

The offense did not do the defense any favors by committing four turnovers. However, bottom line: If the Broncos want to make a push at the playoffs [and actually make some noise when they get there], this defense has got to play better in every aspect of the game. We won the first three games of the season in spite of our defense, definitely not because of our defense.

Why does it seem that the only time the Broncos special teams are brought up it’s in a negative fashion? In the fourth quarter, after the Broncos pulled within a touchdown of tying the game, the kickoff coverage gave up a backbreaking 51-yard kickoff return, which lead to the decisive score in the game.

O’Brien is taking the “special” in special teams too literally. Perhaps somebody needs to explain to him the idea of covering a return lane?!?

This loss really belongs to all three aspects of the game.

So, in conclusion, the Broncos are blessed with an offense that could be 14-2 and burdened by a defense/special teams that could be 6-10. Thus, they will most likely finish between the two with an 11-5 record and make an early playoff exit.

Monday mornings are funny times during football seasons. It seems every week some random team is labeled great, and then the next week they get labeled horrible. The great thing about the NFL is that rarely are things as great as they appear, and on the flip side, they are rarely as horrible as they seem [but the Chiefs, really??].

Why Jay Cutler Will Be the Next Big Thing in the NFL?

Rick Brunetti — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 03:54:31 -0400

In 2006, Mike Shanahan and the Broncos organization raised many eyebrows when they moved up in the NFL draft to select Quarterback Jay Cutler with the 11th overall pick. Nowadays, Jay Cutler is the one raising the eyebrows around the NFL and its fans.

To put it simply, Jays got everything needed to become the next big thing in the NFL.

1. He’s got the talent; he’s got a rocket launcher attached to his shoulder where most mortals have only an arm.

2. He’s got moxie, a four year starter at Vanderbilt Cutlers win/loss record was 11-35 anything but impressive. However, during that time frame not one of his offensive teammates was ever drafted in the NFL and Cutler still managed to win the offensive player of the year (2006) in the toughest conference in college football, the SEC.

3. He’s got talent around him. Brandon Marshall is a beast, Eddie Royal is uncoverable, and Tony Sheffler is quick and possesses good hands for a tight end. Would Joe Montana be Joe Montana if he wasn’t throwing to Jerry Rice and John Taylor for all those years? I think not...The exciting aspect to consider is also the fact that all of their core offensive players are all very young. They are still learning and getting better...scary!

4. He’s got heart. In the offseason Cutler was diagnosed with type one diabetes which is the most severe type of this disease to deal with. This instantly casted him into the spotlight for diabetes patients across the world. He has embraced this roll and continues to bring this powerful disease which affects 23.6 million children and adults in the United States, or 7.8 percent of the population into the spot light. "If an NFL quarterback can thrive with this disease, so can I".

If the Broncos continue to win and Cutler continues to shine there is no doubt that Cutler will soon become the next big thing in the NFL.