Bleacher Report - Articles by Buddy Smith

Fantasy Football Year In Pictures

Buddy Smith — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 21:46:53 -0500

The 2008 fantasy football season was a wild ride. When Tom Brady left the game September seventh we knew we were in for a roller coaster of a season. This slide show takes a quick look back over the year. From key injuries to clutch pick up's, I've brought you a look at some of the best (and worst) of 2008.

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NFL Fantasy Football: Expect Big Games from These Players

Buddy Smith — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 06:44:01 -0500

With the fantasy football playoffs in full swing, any roster change, any favorable matchup, or any injury can be the difference between a league championship and an early playoff exit. Going into the playoffs I thought I would quickly share some thoughts about who I think is going to have a big game this week.

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Fantasy Football: Expect Big Games From These Players

Buddy Smith — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 19:05:44 -0500

Going into the playoffs I thought I would quickly share some thoughts about who I think is going to have a big game this week.

Quarterbacks

Peyton Manning: Lots of you guys have been waiting for this game all year. There is nothing better in fantasy football than having your Quarterback face the Detroit Lions in the playoffs. Manning is going to have a great game on Sunday.

Kurt Warner and the Cardinals are playing the Minnesota Vikings this week. The Vikes are very strong against the run and not good at all against the pass. Warner will probably end up throwing the ball 40+ times and have a 300+ yard day.

Sleeper

Matt Hasselbeck/Seneca Wallace are my sleeper picks at quarterback. Whomever gets the start. HOMER ALERT! I live in Seattle and I’m biased. The Rams are bad on defense, but Seattle is worse. You could make an equally strong argument for Marc Bulger as a sleeper pick as well, but only if you live in St. Louis.

Running Backs

Brian Westbrook and the Eagles are hosting the Cleveland Browns. The Eagles need this game like they need air to breathe. If Westbrook doesn’t have a good game, look for the Eagles to get booed off the field, and for Andy Reid to be fired in the off season.

LaDanian Tomlinson travels to Kansas City to face one of the NFL’s worst defenses. I think he’s going to have a big game as he continues right where he left off in Oakland.

DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart: If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers couldn’t stop these guys I don’t see how Denver is going to do it…unless one of them pulls a Plaxico and shoots the other one in the foot these guys are going to run roughshod over the Broncos.

Sleeper

Tatum Bell is the last man standing in the Denver Broncos backfield. He should get a ton of touches and is a good plug and play option for this week. One thing the Bronco’s CAN do is run block. They could pull a kid from a local high school and he’s have 50 yards rushing and a touchdown behind this line. Maybe their offensive line should play both ways.

Wide Receivers

Dwayne Bowe and Vincent Jackson should be the primary beneficiaries of two awful pass defenses. This game is sort of the dumb and dumber of defense. I feel sorry for all the people who will be standing out in the cold witnessing these two defensive backfields not cover anybody.

Everybody who plays for the Colts should have a good receiving day. I’d start them all: Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez. There’s only one ball but the Lions are that special kind of lousy that makes it look like there were three balls in play when you read the box score.

Sleeper

Deion Branch…HOMER ALERT! I don’t know why I can’t stop thinking the Seahawks will play well again…but I can’t. I’m a shameless homer who should be flogged for suggesting these things in public. Don’t listen to me on this one.

Defenses

Washington Redskins: I’ve been waiting for this match up since week 12. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Cincinnati Bungles aren’t going to stop making mistakes just because the Redskins showed up. They’re a lock for three turnovers.

New England gets to play Oakland this week. Lucky them, and lucky you if you start the Patriots against the hapless Raiders.

Sleeper

Indianapolis Colts. Yes the Colts. That’s how bad Detroit is. Start the Colt’s kicker too. The Lions are so bad that ARCHIE Manning might throw a touchdown in this game. Bob Sanders or no Bob Sanders the Lions are going to turn it over a lot, and the Colts are going to score 35. Maybe some of it will come from defense.

Fantasy Football Strategy: Playoffs Vs. Regular Season

Buddy Smith — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 19:52:47 -0500

As we enter the playoff season, I thought it would be interesting to discuss how fantasy football strategies differ in December from other months. Weather will play more of a factor, the structure of the game itself has changed, and the NFL schedule needs to be considered as well.

December brings weather challenges—baby it's cold outside. The Northeast and the Great Lakes are going to see snow; we just don't know exactly when it will come.

Running backs who are going to play in these areas should be priced with a little bit of skew to the upside—if major snow falls, they should see more carries and point production.

Quarterbacks and wide receivers playing in these cities should be priced with a little bit of skew to the downside for the exact same reason. Some of these players could see their roles eliminated if old man winter blows into town.

The win-or-go-home nature of single-elimination tournaments changes fantasy football strategy dramatically. In all games, one who is able to properly adjust his thinking to the current environment will often reap big rewards.

I’ve written previously about how point volatility can be detrimental to the long term health of your franchise during the regular season. Now that we are playing a single elimination tournament that theory goes right out the window.

During the regular season if you score a consistent amount of points throughout the year, you can take advantage of the volatility that exists on your opponent’s rosters and win more games over the long haul. Like a poker player playing in a cash game: The antes never change, so you can wait around and only play premium hands.

When a poker player enters a tournament, the whole game changes. Now there is no long haul, it’s a short sprint. The antes are rapidly increasing, and a player serves himself better by picking a few spots to make a stand. The same holds true for fantasy football. This is the time to make your stand.

While I hate playing quarterbacks and wide receivers from the same team during the regular season, I seek this position out in the playoffs. The logic here is simple: If your quarterback doesn’t throw touchdowns this week, you can probably start thinking about next year anyway. In the event that your QB does throw touchdowns, you want to give yourself the opportunity to put up an unbeatable number.

Ask yourself this question: What lineup gives me the best chance to score the most points in the league? This is the lineup you want to play. That a very different question from: What lineup will have me in the top half of the league the most times out of 100?

When you know what your goal is, you’re a lot more likely to get you mission accomplished.

The last wrinkle that the NFL throws at us this time of year is the prevalence of division rivalry games. The NFL, for the sake of drama, schedules more of these games now than they have in the last two months.

These division games will be the second time these teams have met as well, asking them harder to handicap. We don’t know exactly what the coaches learned from the first meeting. They may have seen a weakness that they can now exploit to their advantage.

You’ll see teams who have scored a ton of points all year suddenly stymied by a division rival who has learned their offensive tendencies. You may see a guy who got very few touches all season explode for a big day because an offense wanted to avoid being predictable.

This puts a major premium on players from teams who are playing a weak opponent from outside their division. These players should have predictably higher numbers.

To wrap it all up, because you’re now involved in a single-elimination tournament, you want to increase the volatility of your team’s score, while using as many players who are playing outside of their division as possible.

Finally remember that it’s all a crap shoot. The goal of your fantasy season was to get here, now just make the best decisions possible and hope for the best. Good luck!

Seattle Seahawks: Pondering Next Year

Buddy Smith — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 12:43:29 -0500

When a team is playing so poorly that you stop yelling at the television screen, it's time to start thinking about next year.

The Seahawks might play better for the last few games of the season, and they may not. Whatever happens, the Seahawks nation will have to regroup in the offseason and make the right moves for the team to return to the playoffs.

Who are we going to take in the draft? Will we choose a different defensive coordinatior? These are the questions that I was asking myself while I was half-heartedly watching the Seahawks lose on Sunday.

At this point in the season, only the Lions, Chiefs, Bengals, and Rams are doing worse than Seattle. The bad news is on the field every week, the good news is that we should get a high draft pick in June. There are also some fantastic free agents coming available in 2009.

Should we spend it on an offensive lineman? Walter Jones can't play forever. I've seen interviews where Mike Holmgren says he calls him during every offseason begging him to come back. That call isn't going to take place this year. If we lose our lone offensive Pro-Bowler, we could be in a world of hurt.

Tra Thomas is a free agent after this year. The 6'7", 335 pound 34-year-old has done one heck of a job protecting Donovan McNabb's blind side. He could fill Walter Jones' shoes well.

Our pass rush has been lacking all season (when we're not playing the 49ers). Maybe spending a high pick on a defensive lineman or linebacker is the right thing to do. Patrick Kearney isn't getting any younger, and when he was healthy this year, he didn't look the same as he has in prior seasons.

He's not drawing the double teams, and that can been confirmed in Julian Peterson's lack of performance. Peterson has only five sacks this year. In the last two seasons, he had 9.5 and 10.

Maybe the Seahawks need a strong pass rusher who can draw double teams. Either that, or there's been a major difference in the scheming from last year to this year.

We could make a run at Julius Peppers from the Carolina Panthers. He's got nine sacks so far this season and has recorded over 10 sacks in all but two years of his career.

John Marshall has been calling the defensive schemes for the Seahawks. He hasn't figured out a way to get pressure on the quarterback. We should find somebody who's familiar with how to zone blitz out of a 4-3. We could even consider changing to a 3-4.

How much fresher would Rocky Bernard and Brandon Mebane be if they each only had to play half the game?

There would be some growing pains as the team learns the new strategies, but when you're looking at 2-9, it's time for change.

The defensive backs have struggled. Maybe we should find that "lock down" corner. Marcus Trufant has shown this year that he isn't it. He's a very good second corner, but building our defensive backfield around this guy has proved to be an error.

Nnamdi Asomugha might not like playing for the Oakland Raiders anymore. The Bay Area is a fantastic place to live and all, but getting away from Al Davis has value also.

Maybe we can convince the 6'2", 210 pounder to make the drive up I-5 and start shutting down receivers up here. If the Seahawks had Asomugha on one side, and Trufant on the other, we could turn a negative into a positive on this squad.

The special thing about Asomugha is his size. He can physically compete with the biggest and fastest receivers in the league.

We should seriously consider bringing in Sean McDermott to be our Defensive Coordinator next year. In Philadelphia, he has been coaching under Jim Johnson since 1999. He's served both as Defensive Backs Assistant and Linebacker Assistant on one of the most consistent defenses in the NFL. We've seen how John Spagnuolo has invigorated the New York Giants defense.

Eagles free safety Brian Dawkins is also a free agent. He's the type of player who can bring "swagger" back to a defense all by himself. Wide receivers know where No. 20 is when they go across the middle. Having the 35-year-old veteran as a coach on the field could really help McDermott implement his new system.

With McDermott and Dawkins, we'll get more pressure on the quarterback and better defensive back's play. Two things we desperately need.

Jim Mora bears a lot of the blame for the current defensive backfield play. If it weren't already a done deal, would a guy ever get promoted to head coach while his unit is playing so dreadfully?

The Seahawks lead the league in plays allowed over 40 yards, are ranked 31st against the pass, and we're about to promote the defensive backfield assistant to head coach.

I love what Mora did while he was in Atlanta: developing an offense around his talent rather than the other way around. Lots of head coaches would have beaten their head against the wall trying to turn Michael Vick into a pocket passer instead of exploiting his strengths.

This offseason, I expect Mora to bring in new talent and new strategies. The Seahawks have a multitude of problems.

Wide receiver is obviously an issue. Bobby Engram isn't getting any younger. He himself has admitted that his production has suffered without another (read better) wide out to take the double teams away from him.

Who knows if Nate Burrelson will be a step slower coming back from his injury. Deion Branch hasn't proved that he can play a 16-game schedule anymore. To expect Deion to be our big threat next year is to ignore history.

T. J. Houshmandzadeh's contract expires after this season, and he CAN'T be happy in Cincinnati. T.J went to Oregon State, so he's not afraid of the rain. If he enjoyed his time with the Beavers, there's no reason he shouldn't want to return to the Pacific Northwest.

There are some impact rookies available to us in the first round as well. Michael Oher is a 6'6", 320 pound tackle from Ole Miss. His large and well proportioned frame could be the answer for when Walter Jones tells us it's time to say goodbye.

Michael Crabtree is a 6'3", 215 pound wide receiver at Texas Tech. His size and speed could cause matchup problems. He could draw the double teams that Bobby Engram needs to get open.

At corner, there is 6'1" 200 pound Malcolm Jenkins. He could be a solution for the types of problems that players like Crabtree create.

The only good thing about the Seahawks having so many problems, is that there are so many possible solutions. If we go out into the marketplace and turn our weaknesses into strengths, we should be able to find our way back to the playoffs next season.

Fantasy Football: Looking Ahead to Week 15

Buddy Smith — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 19:03:53 -0500

It’s always good to take a peek into the future, so you can see what kinds of matchups are available in the week that matters most: Week 15.

This article is of most use to the teams that know they are in the playoffs. You can start positioning your roster to take advantage of these match ups, as winning in Weeks 13 and 14 for you is more about vanity than anything else.

The objective for the regular season is to make the playoffs, now that you’ve accomplished that goal you can start thinking championship.

Week 15 Games

Thursday, Dec. 11

New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears

Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints take their No. 1 ranked pass offense to Soldier field to kick off Week 15. The Bears are currently ranked 30th against the pass, as Lovie Smith’s unit has only produced 17 sacks this season. Getting pressure will be key if Chicago hopes to slow down the Saints.

Another thing that could slow down the Saints is bad weather. Dec. 11 in Chicago is going to be a cold day. If snow or high winds come in off of Lake Michigan the conditions may do a better job of grounding the Saints passing game than the Bears secondary ever could on their own.

If the weather conditions force New Orleans to run against the sixth best run defense in the league, it could be a long day for the Saints’ offense.

Sunday, Dec. 14

New England Patriots vs. Oakland Raiders

The Patriots visit the Oakland Raiders who are ranked 30th in the NFL against the run. The Raiders have allowed 164.5 yards per game on the ground.

The Patriots running backs should have a good day collectively, but as always with the Pats it’s hard to say if Kevin Faulk or Sammy Morris will get the bulk of the carries.

Weather should not bee too much of a factor in Oakland, but we may see some early season rain. If it is rainy that bodes even better for Morris and Faulk.

Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai should both have great games against the hopeless Detroit Lions. The Lions, the worst team in the NFL, are allowing over 170 yards per game rushing. They’ve allowed eight passing plays over 40 yards, only Seattle and Jacksonville have allowed more big passing plays this season.

For owners who have suffered with the Colts all year, this is a nice little bonus. If you’ve managed to make the playoffs, first-round picks Manning and Addai could carry your team into the championship game in Week 16.

San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Tyler Thigpen has had an interesting season. Early in the year fantasy owners picked on Thigpen, as he struggled executing his offense correctly. More recently he’s settled down is throwing far fewer interceptions.

The Chiefs are ranked 27th against the pass and 31st against the run this season. Phillip Rivers leads a Chargers team that is the seventh-best passing offense in the league. Both Rivers and L.T. should do well for owners in this game. Vincent Jackson could have a big day as well.

Kansas City should be cold on this weekend and if there is any snow that could slow down the passing game for both teams.

Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams

This is an interesting matchup. The last time Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks looked good at all on offense it was Week Three against the Rams.

The Seahawks' defense is ranked 31st against the pass, so Mark Bulger/Trent Green should have plenty of opportunities to make big plays. Donnie Avery would be a fun start for this week’s game.

The Rams are ranked 27th against the run and 25th against the pass. Julius Jones could finally have another big day, and there’s a good chance T.J. Duckett could steal a touchdown.

The story of this game is the quite resistible force meeting the easily moveable object. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of points came out of this match up. Guys you’ve wanted to avoid on your roster just might get big points in the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans

The Titans are allowing 13.1 points per game, their tough defense should neutralize Houston stars Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson.

The Houston Texans are ranked 24th against the pass, and 17th against the run. We should see slightly more Kerry Collins and slightly less Chris Johnson and LenDale White.

The Titans may have nothing to play for by Week 15, so be on the lookout for key players being rested.

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

The Jets defense is a tale of two units. They are fourth in the NFL against the run, while they are 28th against the pass. Trent Edwards is going to have to play like he did today against the Chiefs if the Bills hope to win this game. Marshawn Lynch should have his share of troubles.

On the other side of the ball, the Bills' defense is very mediocre. Ranked 18th against the run and 13th against the pass, it’s safe for fantasy owners to start Brett Favre and Thomas Jones in this game. They should have average days, and, for those two guys, average is pretty darned good.

The Jets are among the hottest teams in the NFL right now, having won five in a row including their victory today against the formerly undefeated Tennessee Titans.

Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers

The Broncos are having a very hard time stopping the run this year. Ranked 29th in the NFL their inability to stop the run could end up being the reason they miss the playoffs this season.

The Panthers with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are the sixth best rushing team in the NFL. Look for both of these guys to have good days against Denver.

The Panthers are ranked fifth in the NFL against the pass, so Bronco’s quarterback Jay Cutler may have some problems scoring points on this unit.

Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are a slightly below average defensive team. Ranked 18th against the pass and 21st against the run, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers should have no problem moving the ball against this unit.

The Packers defense still can’t stop the run. The leagues 27th ranked run defense should have their hands more than full with Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor.

Weather should not play much of a factor in this game. Jacksonville is pretty mild in the winter.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens

Fantasy owners should stay away from this game. Both these defenses are so good there should be very few fantasy points available for the taking in this contest.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins

The 49ers are boasting the leagues 25th ranked pass defense. Terrell Owens went nuts on them today, and I don’t think Mike Singletary is going to be able to change this unit in two weeks.

Ted Ginn Jr. and Chad Pennington could have very nice days as the 'Niners make the very long flight down to Raymond James stadium.

West Coast teams historically have big problems when playing on the East Coast at 1:00. That is exactly what is happening here. Between the weak unit and the jet lag effect there should be fantasy points available for the taking for Miami players in this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

John Gruden’s squad travels to Atlanta to meet the league’s second ranked rushing offense. The Falcons are one of this year’s most surprising teams. Rookie Matt Ryan has played very well, and Michael Turner has proved that he’s nobody’s understudy.

In their first matchup this season, Tampa Bay was able to contain Turner and confuse the rookie. It will be interesting to see what Matt Ryan has learned if the Buccaneers choose to stack the line again in this game.

I’d avoid Turner if you have better options, but Roddy White could explode if Ryan is able to read the defense and call effective audibles.

Washington Redskins vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have not been able to move the football at all this year. What’s in a name? The receiver formerly known as Chad Johnson hasn’t been very worried about what his jersey says. His team is ranked 30th throwing the ball and 31st running it.

The Redskins are a great defense to start in Week 15.

On defense, the Bengals are ranked 22nd against the run, so Clinton Portis should have a fine day as well.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals

Kurt Warner and the Cardinals are running the “Greatest Show on Turf” chipotle style. Warner is a solid candidate for his third MVP award, and has gone from has been to hall of famer in one great year.

The Vikings have the second ranked defense against the run, and are 20th against the pass. This plays right into the Cardinals hands, who wanted to throw all day anyway.

Tim Hightower should have problems, but Boldin and Fitzgerald should continue their standout seasons. The red birds should be playing for playoff seeding, so we should see the full complement of offensive players in this game.

Adrian Peterson will face the seventh raked defense against the run. He could have some real problems if the Cardinals get ahead early in the game. The Vikings could be forced to abandon the run completely and try to take advantage of the Cardinals passing defense.

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

John Spagnolo’s Giants are one of the best defenses in the NFL. Ranked second against the pass, and eighth against the run they’ve produced 31 sacks this season.

They could give Tony Romo and the Cowboys real problems in the game. The Cowboys have been playing better since Romo’s return, but the last time these two teams got together the Cowboys got smoked.

The Cowboys are average against the run, while the Giants are the leagues best on the ground. The Giants are averaging over 170 rushing yards per game, and their three-headed monster of Jacobs, Bradshaw, and Ward are enjoying the protection of a huge offensive line.

Monday, Dec. 15

Cleveland Browns vs. Philadelphia Eagles

You know Andy Reid lost his mind when he benched Donovan McNabb today. Despite the quarterback’s tendency to hit wide-open guys in the foot with the ball, McNabb playing well is the Eagles’ only chance for victory.

Did he not remember what happened during all those games last year (and the year before that) when he didn’t have the Syracuse standout? Was it really necessary to run Terrell Owens out of town if you were going to bench the guy you were defending?

Perhaps Reid would like to suit up himself? If you can’t effectively manage talent you’re nowhere in this league.

The Browns are ranked 29th against the run, so whomever is handing off to Brian Westbrook on this particular day, No. 36 should do very well.

Fantasy Football: The Wire Doth Provide

Buddy Smith — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:56:06 -0500

We're coming down the stretch here and every point counts. This week's news wire is particularly ripe with opportunities for fantasy football owners. There have been injuries at the running back position that should prove fruitful for the nimble player.

Normally I like to stay away from these sorts of predictions, but these pickups are too great for me to stay silent this week.

Warrick Dunn

Warrick Dunn is owned in a little over half of the leagues out there. Yesterday, Earnest Graham was placed on injured reserve. Cadillac Williams isn't all the way healthy yet, so Dunn should see the bulk of this week's carries. As if that weren't reason enough to add him to your lineup, the Buccaneers travel to Ford Field this weekend.

While the Ford family have been lobbying congress for a $25 billion bail out, things haven't been going well for the Detroit Lions either. Their run defense is hemorrhaging yards faster than GM is bleeding money. Allowing over 170 yards per game, they are dead last in the league.

Warrick Dunn should be the feature back this weekend against the league's worst run defense, let's pick him up and give him the start.

Peyton Hillis

The Denver Broncos running back carousel just keeps on spinning. Selvin Young is still out, rookie Ryan Torain knocked himself out for the season in his first start, and last week they signed Tatum Bell, but he hasn't been fully integrated into the offense yet.

Peyton Hillis is listed as a fullback and is owned in roughly 25% of leagues. Last week he got all of the goal line touches and produced two touchdowns.

The Broncos are hosting the Oakland Raiders this week. The Raiders come into town boasting the league's 30th-ranked run defense. They allow 164.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. The hard-running Hillis should have no problem running the ball against this team.

Derrick Ward

Brandon Jacobs, of the New York Giants, had an MRI on his injured knee Monday. Afterwards he indicated that while he is healthy enough to play, the team is deep enough at running back to win without him. With Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw on the roster I can't see the 9-1 Giants risking their offensive star.

The Ward situation is the one you should keep the closest eye on; if Jacobs does play Ward's value would be greatly diminished. The Giants face the Cardinals at the University of Phoenix Stadium. While the Cardinals only allow 3.8 yards per carry, the Giants have one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in football.

Ward is my least favorite of the three pickups, but could still help you out if the other guys are taken in your league already.

Doormats! RB's Walk All Over These Teams

Buddy Smith — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 21:17:33 -0500

We've just passed the halfway point of the season, and I thought it would be a good time to revisit the worst run defenses in the league. Matchups mean a lot, and running backs have had a field day so far this year on these teams. Check the schedule and get in on the fun.

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs have had problems on all sides of the ball. These problems culminated in Week Seven when LenDale White and Chris Johnson combined for 317 yards and four touchdowns. It looked like Ohio Sate vs. Akron. On the season, they're allowing 171 yards per game on the ground...join the party.

Detroit Lions: They show up in every piece like this...you know what to do. Even David Garrard looked good against the Lions yesterday, and he hasn't looked good since Barack Obama was an underdog. Keep picking on the Lions.

The St. Louis Rams are allowing over 160 yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry, and have allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL. Coincidence? Methinks not. Thomas Jones walked all over them for 167 yards and three touchdowns yesterday. Yes, the Jets' Thomas Jones...Walter Payton, he's not. When the Rams show up on your schedule, start that back!

The Oakland Raiders are making themselves known again. Yesterday, DeAngelo Williams rushed for 139 yards. The week before that, "The Burner" scorched them for 140. Two weeks before that, Thomas Jones (yes, that Thomas Jones) went wild for 159 yards. Either Thomas Jones has found the fountain of youth, or these guys have problems.

A few weeks ago, the Green Bay Packers showed up in a piece like this one. I asked Green Bay Packers Community leader Zach Kruse to analyze their run defense. Will the Packers be able to make the postseason playing like they do against the run? What can be done to fix the problem? Zach Kruse gives his insight here.

As always, thanks for reading. If there's something you'd like to hear my opinion on, feel free to drop a note on my profile.

Fantasy Stud Backs: Where Are They Now?

Buddy Smith — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 20:24:58 -0500

Fantasy football history is filled with running backs who singlehandedly carried their owners to championships. Emmitt Smith, Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, and LaDanian Tomlinson were every down backs on high powered offenses. Owners of these players cashed in on a bonanza of points.

For awhile there it seemed like every year would produce a new record for touchdowns in a season. Owners adjusted their strategy to the environment causing countless first round picks to be spent on running backs.

Evolution in games happens quickly, and in recent years the NFL is changing. Platoon backfields have enjoyed so much success that it has become the league norm. Fantasy football owners may need to adjust their strategies as well.

I’ve examined some of this year’s top running back picks so you can take an objective look at how they have performed. You’ll be better able to decide for yourself if these picks are really worth it.

First the Good:

Adrian Peterson was projected to be the number two running back in most leagues. He’s had a respectable year himself: 1015 yards, and seven touchdowns is nothing to sneeze at. Hyped as he was, many owners are disappointed, but even talk of a 2,000 yard season may return after yesterday's performance. He was projected number two (RB), and in most leagues he is number one. You can’t complain about that.

Clinton Portis is having one heck of a season in Washington. With 995 yards and seven touchdowns, only AP is having a better year than the Redskins’ number 26. Where did Clinton Portis go in your draft? Portis was widely thought of as the eighth best RB going into the season…thus far you couldn’t have done better. Let’s see how some of those other early round picks fared.

Brian Westbrook is a warrior. He’s got broken ribs and is out producing almost every back in the NFL. Six rushing touchdowns, plus two receiving touchdowns in eight games is quite a production pace indeed. He was projected fourth at RB and his results are in line.

Marion Barber and Frank Gore round out this top group. With these players so far owners have gotten what they’ve bargained for.

The Not So Good:

If you took LaDanian Tomlinson in the first few picks this year you have to be disappointed. While he’s not a complete disaster you had to think he was going to outscore Steve Slaton by a wider margin when the season started. Turf toe and nearly being thirty seems to have caught up with LT a bit. It’s a shame.

Steven Jackson: This was the second year in a row that the whole world was excited about Steven Jackson in July. Orlando Pace is back, you’d think that would bump his numbers some…alas. He’s stuck in St. Louis, where they’ve just forgotten how to play football against anybody but the Dallas Cowboys.

Many owners spent a top three draft choice on a guy who has a few less points than Steve Slaton, who was available on the waiver wire until week two in many leagues.

Larry Johnson: This bruising back has spent more time behaving poorly in night clubs than running between the tackles this year. With a meager offense he’s compiled a paltry 421 yards and three touchdowns this season. God help you if you spent a first round pick on LJ…it’s the type of move that could blow up a franchise.

Come ON!!

Joseph Addai is currently stinking up my roster. I drafted him while Clinton Portis was still on the board. The Colts were supposed to score a lot of points this year and Addai was supposed to get almost all of the carries.

Then they started playing the games. Now it’s November, the Titans are undefeated, and Joseph Addai can’t find the end zone with a flashlight. What’s worse is that Dominic Rhodes has played well in relief of No. 29 making him all the less valuable just in case the Colts start clicking again.

Ryan Grant is a mathematical anomaly. How a guy can get that many touches on a team that scores that many points and not be a fantasy star still befuddles me. The hamstring hasn’t helped. they never do. Also I think Aaron Rodgers is sneaking away with all of his goal line touchdowns.

The worst of the worst is Laurence Maroney. Before his season ending injury he had 28 carries for 93 yards and zero touchdowns. I think E.T said it best: “Ouch.”

C'mon Oprah, Buy an NFL Team

Buddy Smith — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 20:55:27 -0500

Dear Oprah Winfrey,

Please buy an NFL franchise.

Buy an NFL franchise 'cause it would be fun! Can you say eye candy? Gayle would love you forever, and I'm sure Steadman wouldn't mind eight dates per year in the owner's box. How else can a woman make her best friend and significant other THAT happy in one shopping trip?

Buy an NFL franchise 'cause it's good business. You can put a book on the best sellers list with a mention. You can cripple an industry with an offhand comment. Are you telling me you can't sell out ten little home games?

Adam Glassman can design uniforms, so the offensive linemen no longer look like schlumpadinkas, or schlumpadinkos. Whatever the male term for the schlumpadink is.

You could do a show called "Ex's and Oh's" where you interview ex-wives and girlfriends of players, and find out what it's really like to be an NFL wife. Maybe throw in a competition for a date with your team's most eligible bachelor. Women love muscular men in tight pants, and women love you. How can combining these two great loves not work out?

You'd be like the peanut butter and chocolate of the entertainment industry.

Dr. Phil could run a rookie "Boot Camp", where he counsels new players through the tough choices they're going to have to make as an NFL star. Seminars could include topics like:

"Nightclub Exit Strategies"
"How To Fire Your Bodyguard Non-Violently"
"I Know You Don't Hear It Very Often, But 'No' Means 'No'."
"Don't Drive With Weed"
"Or Cocaine, Silly"
"Dragging Her By The Hair Doesn't Improve Your Argument"
"Normally, Women Do The Drink Throwing"

OK, the boot camp might have to be a little long, but you get where I'm going.

Dr. Oz could be on your medical staff, and perhaps through hypnosis, we could find out what goes through one's mind during a concussion.

Buy an NFL franchise because the NFL needs you. The NFL needs an African-American owner. Why not you? The banks aren't exactly lending money these days, and you've got the cash.

Who could possibly do a better job of teaching this group of high-profile men respect for women? Jerry Jones? I don't think the "Sex Boat" would've happened if Oprah Winfrey was on the NFL's competition committee. It wouldn't be so acceptable to drag your girlfriend down a flight stairs if Harpo Entertainment owned a team.

You make an impact, Oprah, help some young brothers out.

Or buy an NFL franchise 'cause you have the best giveaways. How cool would it be to find out everyone in the stadium just won a car?

Just buy an NFL franchise. Please? You'll make money and help the league we love so much.

Toast! These Secondaries Often Get Burned

Buddy Smith — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 19:24:05 -0500

This week, due to overwhelming popular demand, I'm going back to basics. No theory. No skills building. No homework assignments nor psychology. I promise not to use the words "feeling" or "emotion". Definitely no life lessons or political agendas.

This one is for the dude on his lunch break who just wants to know who to start this week. It's for the guy who's just taking a timeout from his day and doesn't want to think about modern portfolio theory, or whatever else is on my mind today.

Without you readers, I'm just some guy smoking way too many cigarettes typing into the abyss. Thank you one and all for removing the abyss part.

Fantasy Football Information Starts Here

We all know the value of the big play. There are bonus points and usually touchdowns involved when secondaries get beat deep. All of the teams detailed in this article are allowing close to one pass over 40 yards per game. You can take advantage of these teams right now.

Detroit Lions: Eight Pass Plays Over 40 Yards Allowed in Eight Games

It's not surprising at all that the horrific Detroit Lions have allowed more pass plays over 40 yards than all but one team in the league. One would be hard-pressed to find a defensive statistic in which the Lions were not ranked at the bottom of the league. Play all offensive players against Detroit. Moving on.

Seattle Seahawks: Eight pass Plays Over 40 Yards Allowed in Eight Games

I hate it when my home team shows up in a piece like this. Cornerback Kelly Jennings is getting scorch marks on his face because he's burned so often in coverage. On one play yesterday, he managed to get turned around, fall, commit illegal contact, and allow a 17-yard reception. Hitting for the cycle of defensive back ineptitude.

The Seahawks miss Ray Rhodes so much it hurts. The defense returned 11 starters from a unit that played extremely well last year. John Marshall's schemes have not provided adequate pass pressure to give the defensive backfield a chance.

This struggling unit got more bad news on Friday. Patrick Kerney, who aggravated an old shoulder injury against the 49ers, will be out for the season.

The Eagles got a 44-yard reception out of backup tight end Brent Celek Sunday afternoon. Donovan McNabb was only sacked once. With struggles continuing on both sides of the ball, opposing players should post big numbers against the Seahawks.

New England Patriots: Seven Pass Plays Over 40 Yards Allowed in Eight Games

One would not expect a Bill Belichick-coached unit to allow big plays at this rate. The New England Patriots have been a defense to avoid for as long as I can remember, and they're missing Asante Samuel immensely. This undersized unit can be exploited by taller wide receivers.

Last night, Reggie Wayne was able to use his body to create space between himself and defenders. Anthony Gonzalez won a jump ball to bring in one of his two touchdowns.

Santonio Holmes should be able to take advantage of his height in Week 13, assuming he isn't dealing with any league suspensions at that time. The Patriots should also have trouble in Week 16, when Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald come to town.

San Francisco 49ers: Seven Pass Plays Over 40 Yards Allowed in Eight Games

Head Coach Mike Singletary made quite a few waves in his first game. He benched J.T. O'Sullivan and ejected Vernon Davis. The 49ers have had a problem protecting the quarterback. Some blame Mike Martz's system, but it appears Mr. Singletary believes O'Sullivan was holding the ball too long. Shaun Hill has been named the starter going forward.

When an offense has problems, the defense gets over-worked, and eventually coverages get blown. Leonard Weaver, Seattle's fullback, managed to catch two touchdown passes over 40 yards last week.

If nobody on your defense can catch a fullback from behind, you've got real problems. Hopefully for 49ers fans, Mike Singletary will be able to get better play out of his defense; in the mean time, fantasy owners should start their receivers when San Francisco comes calling.

Miami Dolphins: Seven Pass Plays Over 40 Yards Allowed in Eight Games

The Dolphins have improved since their 1-15 campaign one year ago. The Wildcat offense makes great use of their resources, and at 4-4, they are a legitimate playoff contender.

They do, however, allow more than their fair share of big pass plays. Broncos fullback Peyton Hillis was able to break loose for a 47-yard play yesterday. Baltimore Raven's running back Ray Rice also has a 40-yard reception against Miami.

Vincent Jackson and Andre Johnson have proven that wide receivers can get in on the action against the resurgent Dolphins. Lee Evans and Randy Moss are licking their chops thinking about their future dates with the club.

Frank Gore and Leon Washington might have standout days catching passes out of the backfield against Miami as well.

Honorable Mention (Sort of):

The Cardinals, Jaguars, Bills, and Texans have each allowed six big plays in eight games.

Seahawks-49ers: Seattle's Defense Holds Up

Buddy Smith — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 12:43:28 -0400

The Seattle Seahawks broke their three-game losing streak, beating San Francisco 34-13 on Sunday.

On the 49ers' first drive the Hawks sacked J.T O'Sullivan, forcing a fumble which was almost returned for a touchdown. While the defense didn't recover the fumble, they set the theme for the day: pressure.

Rocky Bernard recorded two sacks on the day. Patrick Kerney, Julian Peterson, and Craig Terrill would get one apiece as the Seahawks spent all afternoon in the 49ers' backfield. Four forced fumbles and two interceptions later, victory was in hand.

When defenses get to the quarterback, good things happen. John Marshall put together the right packages to keep both J.T. O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill uncomfortable in the pocket.

Frank Gore was held under 100 yards rushing, while LeRoy Hill made his presence felt with nine tackles. San Francisco could not move the ball consistently all afternoon.

Offensively, the Seahawks were able to get fullback Leonard Weaver isolated on a middle linebacker. Weaver's deceptive speed burned the Niners for two long touchdowns in the second half.

The Seahawks finally got the kind of play they have needed on both sides of the ball, and despite their 2-5 record they still have a chance to make the playoffs.

The Philadelphia Eagles come to Qwest Field this Sunday. The Seahawks will have to execute on both sides of the ball if they want to make it two in a row.

Fantasy Note: To all those who took my advice and picked on the Seahawks this week...sorry.

Fantasy Football: Hedging Your Heart

Buddy Smith — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 20:50:31 -0400

Hedging is a term that gets bandied about, often without much explanation. I thought I'd take a few minutes to discuss how we can use the concept to reduce risk in both fantasy football and our daily lives.

According to Answers.com, hedging is:

A "method of transferring Risk to permit the Risk Bearer to assume two offsetting positions at the same time so that, regardless of the outcome of an event, the risk bearer is left in a no win/no lose position..."

Just in case that didn't clear things up for you, here's a real-world example:

Let's say that you have a job driving trucks and a 401(k) plan. People save for a rainy day. We expect that at some point we aren't going to be able to produce enough money by working, so we squirrel away a little each year, so when the bad times come, we're still OK. That's simple enough.

So there you are, driving your truck and thinking, “How in the world should I invest my 401(k) money?” Most companies give you the option to buy either their stock or one of a variety of mutual funds. Lots of people choose company stock before thinking about what is likely to be going on in the event that they need the money.

We don't all make it 30 years with one company anymore. This is not our father's economy. Layoffs happen. Let me ask you a question: Do you think your company stock will be performing particularly well in the event that you get laid off?

Not likely. So there you will be, with no job and considerably less of a nest egg than you could have had if you'd chosen differently. You're a truck driver, so you know that your industry tends to do poorly when the price of oil is high, and, well, when the price of oil is low. Oil companies also tend to do well when the price of oil is high and poorly when the price of oil is low.

What if you bought a mutual fund heavily weighted in oils stocks instead? Then, in the event that you get laid off, your oil stocks will probably be setting new record highs. If your oil stocks are doing poorly, costs are low at your company and there's plenty of work.

That's hedging.

Making sure you're in pretty good shape no matter what happens.

Now let's take the concept over to fantasy football and see how it applies.

For years, fantasy experts have been advising starting quarterback and wide receiver combinations. The strategy is so widespread that often in drafts people will block your attempt to put together that Romo to T.O. connection.

Maybe owners should start letting these connections happen more often. With superstar players who will both be must-starts every week, these owners will be forever tied to the fortunes of one team. Sure, it looks like genius when it works, but if somebody gets hurt, your season is over.

Plus, going into the draft, we are much less sure of how the season is going to look than we would ever let ourselves believe. Was anybody expecting the Colts’ offense to play as poorly as it has? Or the Cardinals to be playing so well?

How many quarterbacks got picked before Kurt Warner in your league? We don't know what's going to happen, and when we load up on just a few teams, we leave ourselves at risk of being broke and unemployed.

If we spread our assets around the league, we give ourselves a better chance of owning a piece of that surprise offense that is lighting up the league. We know that someone will surprise us every year—we just don't know who it will be.

Can’t Take The Pain?

We can extend the concept further to hedging our emotions. This year, I drafted star players from two teams I dislike very much. At least if these hated franchises have good seasons, they'll take my fantasy football team along for the ride with them. I'll be sad that these teams I dislike are doing well, but I'll be happy to win my fantasy games week after week.

Compare that to the popular strategy of drafting all players from your favorite team. When they lose, you lose. You get to be miserable about two aspects of your football life.

Tony Romo and the Cowboys were making me very happy about football until the pinkie broke. Now I'm glad Romo was the only Cowboy on my team. You can still pick guys from your favorite squad—you just don't have to go overboard about it.

Hedging requires you to look into the future and make your best guess at what the world is going to look like if we get laid off, or if somebody breaks his finger. It requires us to plan on occasionally being surprised, and make our investments accordingly.

If you're able to make emotionless decisions in a world that is quick to panic, and look forward while others analyze last week, the rewards will come.

Edited by Matt Gilmartin

Fantasy Football: Conquer Selective Amnesia

Buddy Smith — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 20:35:27 -0400

Selective Amnesia

Little kids do it all the time. Somehow they “forget” what you told them not to do hours before. Husbands somehow fail to hear their wives say: “Take out the garbage.” Girlfriends don’t recall that Wednesday night is poker night. Every week.

Our minds are slaves to our desires, and we choose to remember things better when it suits us. We all have the desire to think of ourselves as above average in all things, when that can’t possibly be the case.

“Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”
George Santayana

When our minds erase information that lowers our self-esteem, we cripple our ability to improve our skills. How can we learn from experience if we can’t trust our memory of events?

When it comes to decision-making, our minds tend to give us too much credit for things that go right, while we bear almost none of the blame for things that go wrong. While I focus on how you can improve your fantasy football decisions in this article, the same theory applies to other aspects of life.

Delusions of Grandeur

We tend to think too much of our impact on random events. From knocking on wood to lucky shirts, people feel the need to control life. When extremely good things happen to us, we tend to think we are solely responsible for our glory.

For instance: If you have Kurt Warner on your team, you are nowhere near as smart as you think you are. Greg Jennings was not a lock to outscore Randy Moss this year. Random things happened, and we are where we are. Don’t pat yourself on the back so much.

The human mind is a funny thing: Once we know something, it’s hard to imagine a world where it was unknown. People used to think the world was flat and the center of the universe. Now we know better, and it’s hard to imagine a time where this information didn’t exist.

Once we saw Tom Brady’s record-breaking year, it was hard to call it anything other than inevitable. Where are all the people who were talking about Randy Moss becoming a cancer on the team?

Where are all the people who thought the Green Bay Packers’ offense couldn’t function without Brett Favre?

It’s not only good results that we process poorly, negative outcomes are misinterpreted by our brains as well.

Cry Me A River!

When we lose fantasy games, we are keenly aware of all the outside factors that contributed to our defeat. Our star player got injured. We didn’t have enough time to prepare for the draft, and who could have predicted that the Cardinals would be doing so well anyway?

We just got unlucky. It wasn’t our fault, and we couldn’t have possibly foreseen what happened. Do any of these statements sound familiar?

Our brains are equipped with an ego defense mechanism that systematically shuts out information that lowers our self-esteem. This phenomenon, when combined with our natural selective memory, can make learning from experience extremely difficult.

When we do well, it is due to our genius and preparation. When we do poorly, it was due to misfortune. How can we learn from experience if we won't give ourselves honest analysis of the facts?

Action Steps

How can we conquer our own minds and learn from our experience faster than ever before? I've devised a quick worksheet that will force you to make a record of your predictions and your results. This five-minute exercise will tell you how your previous guesses have done. The first step towards making better guesses in the future.

1. Print out your lineup every week with the "projected stats" included.
2. Guess whether each player will score above or below his projection, and mark with an up or down arrow.
3. Write the reason for your guess. Weak opponent, jet lag, whatever.
4. Grade your paper with the actual results Monday morning.

When you complete these steps, you overcome selective memory...Paper doesn't lie. You'll get a feel for when your projections are likely to be wrong, giving you more information in future weeks.

While we all learn from our experiences, we all do it at different speeds. If you have the proper processes in place, you'll be better able to identify both your successes and failures. With this information, achieving repeatable positive results becomes much easier.

Isn't that what you’re trying to do?

These ideas were found in Decision Traps, By Edward Russo & Paul Schoemaker, and adapted for your use in fantasy football.

Edited by Matt Gilmartin.

Are the NFL's Celebration Rules Racist?

Buddy Smith — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 00:44:26 -0400

Touchdown celebrations go back for decades. Frank Gifford and Paul Hornung threw balls into the stands when they scored. In 1965, Homer Jones gave us the spike. In 1974, the Houston Oilers drafted Billy "White Shoes" Johnson. He was 5'9" from D-III Widner University, and when he scored, he liked to dance. After returning a punt for a touchdown, he did an odd version of the "funky chicken" to the delight of fans.

Dancing wasn't done at that time in the NFL. "White Shoes" thought he was going to get a tongue lashing when he want to the sideline, but head coach Bum Phillips was OK with it. "You keep scoring and you can dance all you want," Phillips reportedly said when Billy returned to the sideline.

Players started coming up with more entertaining ways to celebrate a score. In 1982, the "Fun Bunch" of the Washington Redskins would get together in a circle and high-five each other.

Mark Gastineau made the "Sack Dance" famous.

Orwell Was Right

Growing weary of expressed happiness, the NFL instituted a rule in 1984 prohibiting "any prolonged, excessive, or premeditated celebration by individual players or a group of players."

When an organization tries to regulate something like exuberance, they have to make vague rules like this one. They need the ability to punish any activity they see fit, as they are acting as judge and jury for "sportsmanlike behavior."

Every celebration could be considered prolonged and excessive. The great thing about people is we have a tendency to simply ignore bad rules. The 1984 rule was largely ignored by players; it's a good thing, too, or we might have never gotten to see the "Icky Shuffle."

LeRoy Butler, in 1993, gave us the "Lambeau Leap," now one of the greatest traditions in football. If he had followed the rules that were on the books, it would have never existed. How sad would that be?

From the "Mile High Salute" to the "Dirty Bird," we all have fun with celebrations, so why in the world does the NFL hate them so much?

Bad Boys III

Terrell Owens is one reason. Terrell Owens' antics are now legendary. To list them would be redundant.

Chad Ocho Cinco is public enemy No. 2 in the NFL's eyes. The league office couldn't even see the humor in a sign that said "Please don't fine me again!"

What about the uproar that Randy Moss' mock moon caused? You would have thought he whipped out his you-know-what and waved it at the cheerleading squad for all the fuss people were making.

Do these guys have anything in common? Can we confront the pink elephant in the room and talk about racism for a minute?

Post-World War II NFL owners didn't see it fit to hire a black head coach until Art Shell was signed to coach the Oakland Raiders by Al Davis in 1989.

For a long time, it was thought that African Americans didn't have the mental capacity to handle the complexities of the quarterback position. Despite all scientific evidence to the contrary, African Americans were steered away from this position until the late 1980s. Some would argue this practice continues today.

Is it possible that the owners are imposing their cultural ideals on the league? Their history suggests a less-than-open-minded view.

Phone A Friend

In 2003, Joe Horn made an imaginary phone call from the end zone and the owners decided to act...again. A 2004 rule change stated that in addition to fines, "flamboyant" celebrations would incur automatic 15-yard penalties. The "Lambeau Leap" was specifically excepted from this rule. "The Leap" that was in direct conflict with the 1984 rule was specifically allowed 20 years later. How times change.

Why is the NFL penalizing the people who will create the traditions of the future? If not cultural bias, what forces were at work in coming to this decision?

The specific use of the word flamboyant stinks of xenophobia. Homophobes use this word to describe behavior that makes them feel uncomfortable. Their discomfort comes entirely from their closed-minded position on the rights of others. Why not disallow the discomfort rather than the behavior that caused it?

Flamboyance cannot be objectively measured. What one person thinks is over the line, another will find amusing. Why must we all be held to the standards of the most up- tight people around us? Why should we coddle these fear-based emotions?

Flamboyance is in the eye of the beholder. The NFL chose to implement a rule that every referee will interpret differently and decrease the fairness of the outcomes of the games. Ironically, they did this in the name of sportsmanship.

Im"Prop"er Behavior

In 2006, because the NFL was still not happy with the antics of some of its players, the celebration rule was changed again. Fortunately for us, players have kept on ignoring it.

"Individual players are prohibited from using foreign objects or the football while celebrating. They are also prohibited from engaging in any celebrations while on the ground. A celebration shall be deemed excessive or prolonged if a player continues to celebrate after a warning from an official." Previously, players were not prohibited from using props or celebrating on the ground.

At least in this rule a prolonged celebration is defined. Prohibiting players from celebrating while on the ground seems silly...Must they jump in the air and display their glee only during their hang time?

Or was this clause put in specifically to target Terrell Owens for his celebration during which he pretended to sleep? T.O broke both parts of the new rule, as he used the ball as a pillow. Is this celebration really more offensive than the "Lambeau Leap?"

Unsportsmanlike Conduct?

The rules to limit celebration are arbitrary at best and, at worst, racist and xenophobic. It's not surprising in the least that players and owners are at odds over this issue. The players and the owners have had very different life experiences. This isn't going to be the only issue on which the differ culturally.

The NFL is in the entertainment business, yet they penalize their showmen. The league hides behind the notion of sportsmanship, as if they have divine inspiration about what a perfect athlete looks like and how he behaves.

African Americans clearly have a different view of "flamboyant" behavior than Anglo-Americans. One group of people wrote laws to outlaw dancing, for the other, dance is deeply rooted in culture that pre-dates our arrival on this continent.

To assume that the Anglo definition is any more valid than the African is racist on its face. The fact that the whites own the teams does not give them the right to impose their culture on the blacks who work in their fields.

Shades of Gray

In 1933, the NFL prohibited African Americans from playing in the league, but today 70 percent of NFL players are black. Before 1984, no celebration rules existed in the game; as the number of African Americans increased, so has the regulation on celebrations.

With all the evidence that is in place, we must consider the possibility that these rules are nothing more than watered down Jim Crow regulations, designed to keep African-American athletes in their place.

Fantasy Football: Pick On the Seattle Seahawks

Buddy Smith — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 14:40:14 -0400

I'm probably a little late to the party, but it's officially safe to start picking on the Seahawks.

Ugh.

As a resident of Seattle, it has been particularly hard for me to come to this self-evident conclusion, but you have to practice what you preach. Fantasy football decisions are not to be made with your heart.

While I still HOPE the Seahawks will be able to stop offenses for the remainder of the year, I don't THINK it's going to happen.

The trouble began all the way back in Week Two. The 'Hawks were hosting the inexperienced J.T. O'Sullivan and the San Francisco 49ers. After three-and-a-half quarters of mostly poor play, Olindo Mare had just kicked a 32-yard field goal to give the Seahawks a 30-27 lead.

The Seahawks' defense needed to hold the 'Niners scoreless for 7:41 in order to claim victory. J.T O'Sullivan proceeded to cut through the Seahawks' defense like a hot knife through butter. 12 plays and 4:59 later, Joe Nedney was kicking a field goal to tie the game. So much for that.

With 2:46 on the clock, the Seahawks embarked on a four-play drive, ending in a punt from their own 18-yard line. After the punt, the 49ers took over possession on at midfield. Crap.

Young J.T looked like he was playing the scout team, quickly moving his team into field-goal range. With three seconds left, Joe Nedney lined up to seal the Seahawks' fate with a 41-yard field goal attempt. A miracle happened: He missed.

The 49ers won the toss, and this time it took O'Sullivan 4:40 seconds and 10 plays to give Nedney his chance at redemption. Nedney made good, and Seattle was devastated.

The Seahawks' defense had three opportunities to force a young quarterback off the field and they couldn't convert on any of them. "Who are they going to be able to stop?" I asked myself. The answer turned out to be nobody.

The New York Giants scored on their first six possessions against Seattle.

The Green Bay Packers hung 27 on them.

Last week, Jeff Garcia threw for over 300 yards. Eight years ago, that happened a lot.

This week, the Seahawks take their colander defense to Candlestick Park. Even with the coaching change down there, I expect J.T O'Sullivan to pick up where he left off here at Qwest.

I don't want that to happen, but I still think it will.

What's Causing Parity in the NFL This Season?

Buddy Smith — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 23:42:47 -0400

Lots of experts talk about parity every week, but they seldom describe it. This article examines what parity is and talks about the reasons it occurs.

If we're going to talk about parity in the NFL, we must first define the phenomenon. Perfect parity would be a season in which all 32 teams posted an 8-8 record.

From the salary cap to the draft order, the league has several rules in place that promote parity. Do these rules actually accomplish their goals? Or are there outside forces that contribute to different teams doing well each year?

Most of our evidence of parity is anecdotal. We remember the Colts starting undefeated so many years in a row. We remember the Patriots' undefeated regular season last year. These things stick out in our minds, but are they an accurate interpretation of what's going on?

Currently, the only undefeated team left is the Tennessee Titans, and we have a feeling that they aren't going to go 16-0.

Standard Deviation of Wins

To gain an objective view of parity, I examined the standard deviation of wins since the year 2000. Standard deviation is a mathematical measure of volatility. The higher the standard deviation, the more volatility there is in the data. The higher the volatility of wins, the further we get from that perfect 8-8 season. Here's what I found:

Year Vol/Wins
2008: 1.31
2007: 3.32
2006: 3.12
2005: 3.39
2004: 3.08
2003: 3.07
2002: 2.62
2001: 3.26
2000: 3.15

As you can see, win volatility has remained in a tight range this century. The 2002 season stands out, as the league parity was greatest. In 2002, the best regular season record was 12-4, with no AFC team winning more than 11 games that year. That's parity.

Before I ran the numbers, I thought that 2007 would be where parity was noticed the least, but I was wrong. The 2005 season saw the Pittsburgh Steelers win 15 games, the Patriots 14, and the Eagles 13. These data show us how untrustworthy our memories are. We tend to remember the outlying results too often, and this skews our perception of the facts.

So far in 2008, the volatility of wins is 1.31. I fully expect this number to go up as the season progresses, but it does look like we're having a year that is closer to 2002 than 2005.

Playoff Turnover

Another way we can examine league parity is by turnover in postseason teams. If I were the commissioner of the NFL, this would be the measure I would be most concerned with. If the same teams keep making the playoffs every year, general interest in football will decrease (assuming all other factors are kept equal).

Twelve NFL teams make the playoffs each year. Since the year 2000, at least five teams that made the playoffs failed to qualify for the postseason in the following year. With almost half of the postseason teams changing over every year, it appears that parity has always existed...This year is nothing special.

What Causes Parity?

In addition to league rules designed to promote the phenomenon, there are some randomizing factors inherent in football that make it hard to enter the postseason year in and year out.

With the regular season being only 16 games, the "long run" never really has a chance to play out in the NFL. Turnovers have a tremendous effect on wins and losses, and these events are largely random.

Turnovers

While offensive-line play and quarterback experience have a large impact on turnovers, sometimes players just drop the ball. Once the ball is on the ground, luck plays a major role in who gains possession. Luck, therefore, could have a major impact on teams returning to the playoffs.

Injuries

Injuries are the greatest randomizer in football. Nobody can predict injuries; and when they happen, their effects on the probability of victory are too large to be ignored.

You'd have to be particularly obtuse to not be able to see the effect that Tom Brady's injury has had on the football season this year. This is an extreme case, but the effects of injuries are vast:

Seattle's wide receiver injuries are a large reason for their 1-4 start.

The Eagles' fortunes are tied to the health of Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook.

Tony Romo's pinkie injury changed the odds of Dallas making the postseason tremendously.

The list goes on.

Conclusions

From the data we've examined today, we can see that this year more teams have a chance of making the playoffs than in years past. Parity is on pace to be the greatest in this season than it has this century.

Turnovers are somewhat random and very important for winning games. We know that players will get hurt every year, but we don't know which players. Therefore, luck plays a major factor in every NFL season. These randomizing effects probably have a greater impact on league parity than all of Roger Goddell's rules combined.

Fantasy Football: Negotiate the Trade Deadline

Buddy Smith — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 20:31:07 -0400

Due to the recent passing of the NFL trade deadline, and the fact that the deadline for most fantasy leagues is quickly approaching, I thought I'd share some thoughts on how to negotiate and analyze trades.

If you apply these skills, you'll make better deals for your fantasy team, and you might save a few bucks at the car dealership, too.

Information is power

When you walk onto a new-car lot, don't you want to know how much the dealer paid for the car? Salespeople will often try to trap customers into talking about monthly payments.

You'll hear the question "How much can you afford to pay a month?" Never answer this question. It's irrelevant to the price of the car. Why negotiate down from the maximum that you could possibly spend, when you can negotiate up from the minimum that they would take for the car?

Therefore, I cannot express the importance of talking fantasy football with the other players in your league enough. This is how you find out their "dealer invoice" on fantasy players.

Each individual owner has their own method for valuing players. It's important that you know what the other owners think of their players and yours, and the fastest way to find this out is by talking to them.

Talk to them on Monday mornings. We are emotional about our fantasy football teams, and no matter the result, do you know any emotional people who don't like to talk? Ask the question "So how do you like your team these days?"

Owners will tell you their problems. Then it's up to you to devise a trade that solves their problems for them. The best listener, not the best talker, almost always wins negotiations.

Have A Plan

It's important to develop a system for judging what impact any trade is going to make on your team. The question you are trying to answer is: “How many more points am I likely to score per week if I make this move?”

The first thing I consider is the impact on my starting lineup. What weapons am I going to choose to deploy if I have this new roster?

Look at some projections, but be careful to apply common sense. The computer models don't always take the latest news into account.

Know Your Needs

Because your lineup points are the only ones you get to keep, my favorite trade to make is trading away depth at one position for a significant upgrade in talent at another.

For instance, on my team I have Plaxico Burress, Brandon Stokely, Marques Colston and Anquan Boldin...Far too much talent for a league that starts only two wide receivers.

The Wildcat offense in Miami is giving Ronnie Brown 15 touches per game at quarterback. Plus all the handoffs he'll likely get. Because his touches are being built into the gameplan, he's going to score consistently more points than most other running backs. He could even have five touchdown passes this year. Why not trade two wide receivers I don't need for a running back stud?

My overall roster score will go down, but my starting lineup score will go up.

Conclusions

If you know what other owners think of their players and yours, you’ll find expected value in more of your transactions. Visualizing the impact on your future lineup will also help your decision-making process. After all, if you don’t know what you want, you’ll never learn how to get it.

Happy Trading!

Edited By Matt Gilmartin
Image license can be found here

Fantasy Football: Broke Models Need You

Buddy Smith — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 20:02:59 -0400

Sorry to disappoint—this isn't that kind of article. Get your minds out of the gutter and back on fantasy football.

Fantasy football player values are unknown. In every discipline, from biology to economics, we build models to predict unknown values. Then we hope they work.

You just have to Google “fantasy football” and you'll get a long list of sites with models that predict future fantasy football points. They've been created by clever—and not so clever—people to sell advertising space that you'll mostly ignore.

They're all wrong. Pick one anyway. CBS Sportsline will do well enough in a pinch. The model that you use matters much less than how you use your model.

All of the fantasy projections are far too dependent on statistics. Some are too dependent on last year’s statistics, others are too dependent on this year’s statistics—but all are based on running stats through some formula.

Statistics lie. Consider this stat line from Week Six's Jacksonville-Denver game:

REC YDS TD FAN
Nate Jackson TE (DEN) 0 0 0 0

Goose eggs. That isn't the whole story—if you watched the game, you know that Nate Jackson dropped a pass in the end zone. One catch for three yards and a touchdown is a pretty good day for a tight end.

If Jackson is an end-zone target for the Denver Broncos, most models aren't going to price that correctly, they’ll just see the zeroes.

Injury Problems

Models also handle injuries very poorly. They tend to under-value the negative impact on the players around the injury. I think the models anchor themselves to their previous projection.

So, if both the projections and human beings tend to make this mistake, you may find opportunity by trading away players on teams that have a newly injured player.

All the Dallas Cowboys players went down sharply in value on Monday when we first heard about the pinkie, rebounded Tuesday with the Roy Williams signing, and rebounded further with Romo maybe playing hurt.

How much? I don't know, but I can tell you which direction the player's values moved in. Sometimes that's all you need.

If you're more aware of the current events changing the marketplace than your opponent, you should be able to create value for yourself both in trades and on the waiver wire.

Know when your model is'nt working, and you'll make better decisions.

Edited By Matt Gilmartin

Image license can be found here.

Fantasy Football Decisions: What to Do About Willie Parker?

Buddy Smith — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 18:50:03 -0400

According to the Pittsburgh Steelers, two time Pro Bowler Willie Parker has reaggravated his knee injury.

Parker says his status is day-to-day, and his possible absence makes Mewelde Moore a valuable fantasy player this weekend.

Moore, who rushed for 99 yards on 17 carries against Jacksonville, will be travelling to Cincinnati to face the 0-6 Bengals.

The Bengals are in complete disarray, and are weak against the run. Their defense has allowed 158.8 yards per game this season on the ground.

Mewelde Moore is only owned in 17 percent of leagues, according to a popular fantasy football site, making him a fantastic plug-and-play option this weekend against Cincinnati.

Watch the news for further information on the Parker injury; if Parker doesn't play, Moore could pick you up a free 100-yard day.

That makes him worth having on your roster, even if it's just for a few days.

Roy Williams' Impact On The Dallas Cowboys

Buddy Smith — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 15:11:46 -0400

Roy Williams, who attended the University of Texas, will be returning home to join the Dallas Cowboys. At 6'3" and 211 pounds, Williams is a large target with breakaway speed. His addition to the Cowboys will have a major impact on the team, as defenses will have to adjust their strategies to the new threat in Irving, TX.

Going forward, the Cowboys will have a legitimate deep threat on each side. This is going to cause defenses to play more zone coverages.

Two-deep zone coverages give a myriad of responsibilities to the safeties on each side, while the middle of the field becomes the responsibility of the middle linebacker.

Often called the Tampa Two, this strategy is vulnerable to attack deep down the middle of the field. Balls thrown by Brad Johnson over the middle linebacker's head will be more likely to find targets Jason Witten and Patrick Crayton.

Crayton, who's spent time as a slot receiver, will likely move back to this role, as Williams assumes one of the roles at wideout.

Opponents will be less likely to play eight-man fronts against the new-look Cowboys. Eight men in the box (the area near the line of scrimmage) leaves two corners and a safety covering Terrell Owens and Williams, which is not the best proposition.

All Dallas running backs should benefit from this change in scheming. Marion Barber should almost never see a safety near the line of scrimmage. This should improve his yards per carry average.

Tony Romo has always shown himself to be a likable guy. Most people think that if you can get along with T.O., you can get along with anyone. He should work well with Williams.

Williams, after spending so much time in purgatory (Detroit), should be eager to learn Jason Garret's offense.

The only possible negative impact of Williams' presence could be the attitude of Terrell Owens. Owens likes the ball, but he loves to win. If the Cowboys play well, Owens should not be a problem.

All together, the Cowboys are going to be much harder to beat with Williams on the club. Look for them to do extremely well when Romo returns from his injury. Williams should improve both the running and passing game...more points equals more wins.

It's Good! Kicking Up More Fantasy Points

Buddy Smith — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 20:17:04 -0400

A fantasy point is a fantasy point. It doesn't matter if you get them from your quarterback, running back, or kicker: They all count.

I always draft a kicker in either the last or second-to-last round in my fantasy league, just as most experts advise. However, early in the season, I re-evaluate my kicker pick. Pre-draft projections are not as important as regular-season results.

By now, it's clear which offenses are going to score points, but many fantasy owners are still anchored to their pre-draft assumptions. With a wise move at this point in the season, you can easily capture a 20-30 point advantage over the rest of your league.

In this article, I'll show you how to pick a kicker and talk about some kickers whose ownership percentage no longer reflects their expected results.

How To Pick A Kicker

When picking a kicker, it's important first to consider the job they do: kicking. Josh Brown makes the occasional tackle, but the rest of the league just kicks.

Since kickers can't do anything to change the number of times their team gets into the red zone, when you're drafting a kicker, you're really drafting a piece of an offense.

It's like buying stock in the total number of points the team is going to score in a season. When the offense produces more points, the kicker scores more points...your stock goes up.

Before the season started, people made estimations about total points scored for the season. The New England Patriots, for instance, were expected to score a lot of points.

Now that we know Tom Brady isn't coming back this year, we must adjust our assumptions to reflect this new information. Stephen Gostkowski is going to score far fewer points this year than we previously expected, through no fault of his own. His team changed around him, and with it, his probability of scoring.

When you're picking a kicker, you want to buy stock in a team that is going to score lots of points. The Cowboys, Broncos, Chargers, Cardinals, and Saints right now are the league's five highest-scoring offenses.

Whoever has the kicking job on these teams is likely to score more points than the rest of the league.

Look for high-powered offenses and teams playing well. This is fertile ground for kicking points.

Getting It Wrong

Matt Prater, one of the highest-scoring kickers in football, is only owned in 76 percent of leagues on a popular fantasy site. The leader at every other position has an ownership percentage in the high 90's. What gives? Why aren't more high-scoring kickers owned?

Because their triumphs almost never make the highlight film, kickers' achievements are largely ignored by the fantasy football community.

Neil Rackers plays for the Arizona Cardinals, one of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL. He is owned in only 57 percent of leagues.

Taylor Mehlhaff, the rookie kicker for the high-powered Saints offense is almost completely unowned.

On the other hand, plenty of the wrong kickers are heavily owned. Shayne Graham is owned in 57 percent of leagues. I guess because the Bengals were a good team a few years back, owners are betting on the resurgence.

In 59 percent of leagues, somebody still has Stephen Gostkowski (NE). Did these owners somehow miss the Tom Brady news?

Shouldn't kickers from high-scoring teams be more owned than kickers from low- scoring teams?

What To Do

Player values change every day, and if you don't react to even the most dramatic changes, rest assured, your opponents will.

Ask yourself a question: What teams do you think are going to score this season? Then choose your kicker accordingly. Most importantly, be willing to change your opinion as new information comes to light.

Making good midseason adjustments improves your probability of victory.

Fantasy Football: Drop Anchor and Win

Buddy Smith — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 20:08:54 -0400

Fantasy football is a game. All the football knowledge in the world isn't going to help you win unless you are willing to improve your game-playing skills. Human beings tend to process information in similar ways, and as such, we are prone to making similar mistakes.

While we all have heard the advice, "Never judge a book by its cover," the truth of the matter is we do this every day. We decide based on first impressions.

Ever decided not to hire a guy because he was five minutes late for a meeting? Or crossed the street to avoid having to talk to someone? Maybe left a bar because you got a bad vibe from the patrons?

These feelings are natural, but they don't always lead to the best decisions. What's worse is we humans tend to hold on to these first impressions, despite all subsequent evidence to the contrary. Modern decision theorists refer to this phenomenon as anchoring.

In business, anchoring causes us to hire and promote the wrong people. In fantasy football, the phenomenon causes owners to keep the wrong players on their rosters, because before the season started there were high hopes for these players' numbers.

This article examines a real-world, fantasy football example, where anchoring is affecting the decision-making of vast numbers of owners. If you can free your mind from these chains, you can score more points over time than most of your competitors.

Laurence Maroney (RB) New England Patriots

Before the season started, Laurence Maroney was expected to be the feature back on the highest-scoring offense in the league. Maroney was a standout in the second half of last season, and the Patriots were returning most of their record-breaking offense.

We all know what happened to Tom Brady in Week One. After five weeks of play, we can be assured that this Patriots team isn't going to score very many points.

Even before his injury, Maroney was far from featured on this low-scoring team. He shared carries with Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and LaMont Jordan.

According to a popular fantasy site, Maroney is owned in 69 percent of leagues. More than both Michael Pittman (37 percent) and Tim Hightower (39 percent). Pittman and Hightower are the established short yardage backs on the third- and fifth-highest scoring offenses in the NFL.

The Broncos are averaging 29.8 points per game this year, the Cardinals 29.4. The Patriots are scoring only 19.8 points per game, yet the marriage to Maroney continues in most leagues.

Making It Worse

In a recent Washington Post article, a political study was conducted on how likely people are to change their minds. The Yale University study showed that after people are shown facts that refute their opinion, for most people these opinions become more strongly held than before.

The political scientists concluded that when people's beliefs are contradicted by facts, most human beings argue back in their own minds, twisting their perceptions until they come to their originally held conclusion.

In other words, people are naturally stubborn. At least it's not just me.

What Should I Do?

Take an honest look at your roster and look for players who do the same job on higher-scoring teams. Unless you have a football reason for thinking your player is going to bounce back, he probably isn't.

Pick up some guys who are doing it now. If you make the proper adjustments midseason, you can make up for a multitude of draft-day errors, but you must first let go of your draft-day assumptions. You must be willing to change your mind in the face of new facts.

If you are aware of the mistakes that human beings are predisposed towards making, you'll make better decisions in both fantasy football and life.

Anchors away!

Plug and Play Alert: New York Jets Defense

Buddy Smith — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 15:54:57 -0400

Coach Marvin Lewis said after practice Friday that Ryan Fitzpatrick will start Sunday against the Jets in place of Carson Palmer, according to Fox Sports.

If you read my recent piece on defensive scoring, you already know how big an opportunity inexperienced quarterbacks are.

Against the Cleveland Browns, Ryan Fitzpatrick was 21-of-35 for 156 yards and one touchdown. He threw three interceptions and fumbled once, leading the Bengals to defeat.

Why not bet against him doing well this week in New York?

The New York Jets defense is more likely to score fantasy points with young Ryan at the helm of the already hapless Bengals.

If you've got a defense on a bye, taking a chance on the Jets is a great play.

Seattle Seahawks Face Some Bumpy Rhodes Ahead?

Buddy Smith — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 14:00:05 -0400

Something special happened in Seattle after last week's game in New York. People stopped talking about the Seahawks. Grunts, eye rolls, and shaking heads will have to do: No words can describe the disappointment.

This season, people don't even want to say the word "Seahawks."

The good news is the Seattle football club can't possibly be as bad as they appeared on Sunday. Or can they?

The team has good reason to think they will get better offensively. The wide receivers will heal and start to practice with Matt Hasselbeck again. Not this week, but they will eventually. Things will get better...someday.

Defensively, there may be a systemic problem. After giving up 523 yards of total offense last Sunday can we all say out loud together:

"WE MISS RAY RHODES!!!"

Since Ray Rhodes was hired as defensive coordinator in 2003, the Seahawks defensive unit has consistently outperformed its talent level. His stroke in 2005 forced him to take less of a role, but his presence was still felt.

This past offseason, Rhodes was hired as the Houston Texans defensive backs' assistant.

The regular season begins and the Seahawks, who returned 11 defensive starters, suddenly can't stop anybody. Cause and effect?

Leroy Hill was quoted recently saying the defense "has lost its swagger." The swagger isn't lost—it just lives in Houston now.

As recently as September, Ray was hospitalized, experiencing dizziness. My best wishes go out to this most beautiful of defensive minds. We miss you so much Ray. Please get better soon, football can't afford to lose you.

The Seahawks need to start playing like a Ray Rhodes defense: tough, smart, and relentless. Make your old coach proud; he deserves it.

Dallas Cowboys: Beyond the Distractions

Buddy Smith — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 12:48:43 -0400

The Dallas Cowboys are favored by Las Vegas odds-makers and several football pundits to win the Lombardi Trophy this year. But before Jerry Jones can start making room in his trophy case, Wade Phillips is going to need to address some key issues on his football team.

We can—and will—talk until we are blue in the face about the emotional status of Terrell Owens. We can plan Tony and Jessica's wedding and honeymoon. If we're lucky, we'll even get some footage.

These things are distractions.

If the Cowboys want to win in January, they will need to do three things: take better care of the football, run the ball consistently, and make more plays in the defensive backfield.

Butterfingers

The Cowboys have fumbled the football nine times this season. That's more than Detroit's six and Houston's eight. The Cowboys are tied with the terrible Bengals in this statistic.

Tony Romo isn't doing the team any favors by averaging over one interception per game on top of that.

The Cowboys have enough offensive firepower to overcome turnovers, but that's no reason for them to try to lead the league in fumbles and win the Super Bowl in the same year. Choose a goal.

Cowboys fans know the price of costly fumbles in January all too well.

Work on the problem now, please, Mr. Phillips.

Stuffed

When the Cowboys have run the ball well this year, they have looked unstoppable. When the running game struggles, the team struggles with it. They rushed the ball only 11 times for 45 yards in their loss to Washington.

Clinton Portis walked all over the defense for 121 yards. If the Cowboys allow other teams to control the clock on them, it will bite them come playoff time.

If the rushing attack can't close games out, we're going to see more blown leads in big D. And no new trophies.

Toast

The Dallas Cowboys' defense has produced one interception this season. The one lonely pick was by Greg Ellis, a defensive lineman.

While producing no interceptions, the secondary has allowed 50+ yard completions to Santana Moss, Donald Driver, and DeSean Jackson. If they continue to get burned like this, it will be a short playoff run indeed.

Now What?

When you put it all together, you have a team that is susceptible to the big play, careless with the football, and runs the ball well every other week.

The Cowboys are going to need to play better than that if they expect to bring home any hardware this season.

Sin City! How To Use Las Vegas Lines To Score Fantasy Points

Buddy Smith — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 20:33:16 -0400

One thing is clear to every fantasy football owner: He who scores the most points wins. Week after week, we scratch our heads and try to predict the answer to this question to the best of our ability: Who is going to score points this week?

Fortunately for us, fantasy football owners aren’t the only people pondering these questions. Approximately $40 million is wagered on football each weekend in Nevada, according to USA Today.

That’s real money, folks. You thought you had problems because it’s going to cost you two bucks to drop Laurence Maroney. (Do it anyway.)

Each week, one can wager on football in several ways in Las Vegas. The most popular wagers are the Game Line and the Over/Under. Because $40 million a week is riding on these results, you can bet there are people out there doing major research on the subjects.

As a fantasy football owner, you can borrow this research as you decide whom to start and sit each week. Las Vegas has done their homework, and you might as well copy their answers.

Part One: The Over/Under

The over/under is a simple bet: Las Vegas sets a number of points for a game, 42, for instance. If more than 42 points are scored in that game (total, both teams) and you bet the over, you win. If under 42, you lose. Simple enough.

It’s safe to say that 42 is the expected number of points to be scored in that game. As a fantasy owner, if you check the over/under every week, you’ll know which games Las Vegas thinks will be high scoring.

Very useful information.

Start players in the high-scoring games, and with all other things being equal, you'll score more points and win more games.

Part Two: Game Lines

But the over/under doesn’t tell us everything we need to know. What if the over/under is high because our team is going to get beat 44-6? Sorry Seahawks.

Las Vegas has an opinion on who's going to win called the game line. For instance, next week, the Dallas Cowboys are five-and-a-half point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals. If you bet on the Cowboys, they must win by at least six points for you to win your bet.

The over/under on the Cowboys game is 50. So Las Vegas is saying that they expect the Cowboys to beat the Cardinals by five-and-a-half with 50 total points being scored in the game.

28–22 Cowboys would be the expected final score.

Conclusions

When you take these two pieces of information into consideration as you set your lineup, you’re able to get the market’s best guess at how many points each team will score.

I could bore you with a dissertation on the merits of the efficient market hypothesis, but it’s better if you just trust me that this is a credible source.

Quite simply: Start players from favored teams when the over/under is high. These players rate to score more points than players in games with low over/unders.

Easy enough, right?

Applying this strategy over time should lead to higher point totals for your team.

Thanks for reading, and feel free to leave your questions on specific situations here. I'll be answering questions every day until Saturday.

Fantasy Advice: How To Tackle Defensive Scoring

Buddy Smith — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 14:58:08 -0400

When I first started playing fantasy football, I was completely frustrated by defensive scoring. Predicting who was going to return interceptions for touchdowns seemed like too daunting a task.

Even worse, it seemed like every time I changed defenses, the guys I had been starting all year would finally score. I felt cursed, and I threw up my hands in exasperation. I decided I would just start the same team every week and hope for the best. This was not the best strategy.

I’ve matured as an owner and come to terms with the random nature of defensive scoring. I now play this part of the game very proactively. Like a card-counting blackjack player, I bet when the odds are in my favor and sit out when they are not.

Last season, I started 10 different defenses in 14 weeks. That combination of defenses was the NFL's third-highest-scoring defense in terms of fantasy points. I picked up a 50 to 80-point advantage over most of my league just by taking a few minutes each week to look for turnovers.

Below, I detail my four-part approach to choosing a defense each week. Please don't tell anyone in my league about it! At the bottom of the page, there is a chart showing the expected turnover leaders through Week Five.

Part One: Fumbles

While fumbles are mostly random, some people do have butterfingers. Remember Tiki Barber before he got the Kung–Fu ball grip?

Last year, in the NFL, there were 800 fumbles, 384 of which were recovered by the defense. Over the long hall, if a player puts the ball on the turf, it is 48 percent likely to be recovered by the defense.

As fans and fantasy owners, we tend to focus too much on fumbles lost, which is more a matter of luck. The “no harm, no foul” rule doesn’t apply when it’s your job to predict future harmful fouls. Every ball on the grass is worth 48 percent of a turnover in my eyes.

The logic here is simple: more balls on the ground equal more turnovers, and more turnovers equals more fantasy points for you.

Part Two: Interceptions

An interception is an interception, so I won’t spend much time here. Obviously, if a team is throwing a lot of picks, starting their opponent as your defense is going to lead to more chances for defensive touchdowns.

More defensive touchdowns equals more fantasy points for you.

Part Three: Sacks

Sacks are a very important part of the equation. Sacks can often lead to fumbles, and the threat of sacks can often lead to interceptions. Lots of times balls get intercepted because the quarterback’s throwing motion was disrupted by a pass rusher.

Ideally, you should look for a team that is getting more sacks than the league average per game and start them against a team that is allowing more sacks than the league average per game. If both teams play like they have been, you should pick up some points.

You may not always get the ideal matchup, but this should be a major factor, as you’re considering which defense to start each week.

Part Four: Inexperienced Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks touch the ball on every offensive play, outside of Miami. Wildcat offense notwithstanding, every play begins with the center snapping the ball to the quarterback. There’s one chance for a fumble. Next the quarterback either hands the ball to a running back, another fumble opportunity, or passes the ball, creating a chance for an interception.

Inexperienced quarterbacks are more likely to foul up these processes than their veteran counterparts. This problem is exacerbated if the new quarterback hasn’t taken many reps with the first-team offense before he starts.

Think Tyler Thigpen.

Quarterbacks making their first NFL start due to an injury to the starter are much more likely to turn the ball over—and at a far higher rate, to boot—than quarterbacks who have practiced with the starters since July.

Going back to the blackjack analogy, this is a deck with lots of face cards left in it—you want to increase your wager in these situations.

It is a sin to sit by idly and allow these defensive points go unclaimed. It could be the difference between winning and losing.

Conclusions

While you can’t predict exactly when turnovers are going to occur, you do know some things about how they occur. You should use that information to your advantage.

Quarterbacks in distress, whether through defensive pressure or inexperience, make bad decisions with the football and create defensive scoring opportunities.

If you take a look inside the numbers each week, you’ll be able to see where these mistakes are more likely to happen and position your team to take advantage of the situation.

Data: Total Fumbles + Interceptions Leaders for Week Five:

             Team                  FUM LST      INT     TOT
1. Cincinnati Bengals              9         4         7        16
2. Kansas City Chiefs           7         2         8        15
3. Dallas Cowboys                 9         3         5        14
4. Houston Texans                8         3         6        14
5. San Francisco 49ers          8         6         6        14
6. Detroit Lions                    6         1         7        13

Feel free to post any questions you have about specific situations. I'll answer questions once a day through Saturday. Thanks for reading.

Abstinence Only: Bengals, Browns, and Rams Can't Score

Buddy Smith — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 22:12:14 -0400

The object of the game of football is to score more points than your opponent.

We spend time talking about statistics and gossiping about tradition, but, at the end of the day, it's about putting points on the board.

Right now, three teams in the NFL are averaging fewer than 15 points per game, after having played at least four games.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-4): 13 Points/Game, 231 Yards/Game, –4 Turnover Ratio

"Houshamzilly! Championship!" It seems like a distant memory in 2008. If they played the commercial any more I think I would cry.

Ocho Cinco, ¿dónde están mis puntos?

The Bengals played pretty well against the Giants, so there might be some hope. But all hope involves Carson Palmer playing quarterback.

They have enough problems. If Palmer doesn't play, we will see more mistake-filled games.

Marvin Lewis seems like a nice guy, but it looks like the Bengals' season is already in the bowl. We’re just waiting for the flush.

Cleveland Browns (1-3): 11.5 Points/Game, 210 Yards/Game, +1 Turnover Ratio

Ladies and gentlemen, we have ourselves a quarterback controversy. Derek Anderson has played poorly enough this year to remind Browns fans that they have an expensive local boy sitting on the bench.

Braylon Edwards has the dropsies, and nobody seems to be able to block anybody. All of this makes Jamaal Lewis look very old and mediocre.

If you can't light up the Carson Palmer-less Bengals, whom can you light up in this league? I'd like the Browns to show me.

St. Louis Rams (0-4): 10.8 Points/Game, 246.8 Yards/Game, –3 Turnover Ratio

The Rams can't stop you.

The Rams can't score.

The Rams' head coach is nearly out the door.

I bet you guys didn't expect to miss Mike Martz so much—did ya?

This team and organization are in complete disarray. If I were the owner, I'd start selling off the parts for draft picks while I searched for my replacement GM and Head Coach.

If you don't score, you can't win. These teams can't score.

Mile-High Club: Cardinals, Rams, and Broncos Give It Up in the Air

Buddy Smith — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 21:11:32 -0400

After four weeks of play, we’re starting to see who can really play this game. As a fantasy-football owner, you should always be looking out for who the weaker defensive teams are. Lots of times, they allow fantasy points as well as real points.

I’ve taken a look at some of the weaker pass defenses in the league. Here are my findings.

Arizona Cardinals (2-2): 818 Yards Allowed 8TD 2 INT

By now, you’ve seen the highlights of Brett Favre setting a career record for touchdowns in a game versus the hapless Red Birds.

That could be your fantasy quarterback. Start him when the Cardinals come to town.

St. Louis Rams (0-4): 983 Yards Allowed 8 TD 1 INT

The Rams can play merry go round all they want at quarterback, but until they solve their problems at cornerback, they are not going to win very many games.

They are allowing 36.8 points per game. That just isn’t going to beat anybody in the NFL.

Start your quarterbacks, wide receivers, kickers, running backs, and cheerleaders—'cause when the Rams come to town, everybody scores.

Denver Broncos (3-1): 1,104 Yards Allowed 7 TD 1 INT

The Broncos can’t stop the run, and therefore they can’t stop the pass.

They just made the Kansas City Chiefs look good.

One interception and 29.2 points allowed per game just is not going to be good enough. This must change if the Broncos are going to make a deep playoff run.

In fantasy-football terms this means...Gentlemen, start your quarterbacks.