Bleacher Report - Articles by Matthew Foust

New York Mets: 2008 Season Preview

Matthew Foust — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 05:30:18 -0400

Key Acquisitions: Johan Santana - SP, Brian Schneider - C, Ryan Church – OF

Strengths: The Mets numbers and lineup would indicate they have all the tools in place to make a run at the crown. The starting rotation should be excellent with the acquistion of Santana and Martinez returning. New York has quality at all five spots now.

They can handle both right and left handed pitching and they know how to work the count (549 walks in 2007). They have excellent speed (200 stolen bases last year) as well.

New York can also put runs on the board in a hurry; last season they averaged 4.96 runs per game and they averaged 5.61 runs per game in road division play. They held division rivals 3.89 runs per game on the road.

Weaknesses: The biggest reason for the Met collapse last year was the way they fell apart against their division rivals, particularly at home. The Mets gave up 5.50 runs per game at Shea last year to division foes.

That makes no sense when compared to how well they pitched on the road in the division.

The Mets look like Brooks Robinson compared to the Marlins, but they could afford to cutback on the errors too (101 in 2007).

Summary: The way the Mets played down the stretch at Shea they might be glad to see the old building go. That said, if they can correct their problems at home they should be in the running to bring home the NL East title.

Johan Santana gives an all around solid pitching staff a much needed top of the rotation ace. The addition of Santana to the starting rotation makes up for Glavine’s departure and then some.

The Mets definitely have the bats to produce solid offensive numbers, their only problem last season was the lack of offensive pop at home.

The Mets still have some work to do against some stiff competition if they're going to send Shea off in fine fashion.

Prediction: Second Place in the NL East.

Probable Starters

1B: Carlos Delgado

2B: Luis Castillo

3B: David Wright

SS: Jose Reyes

C: Brian Schneider

LF: Moises Alou

RF: Ryan Church

CF: Carlos Beltran

Key Players & Trends

The past two seasons the Mets are 32-19 when John Maine pitches, meaning they win 63 percent of the time that Maine starts. They do far better in division play when Maine takes the ball, posting a 16-5 mark in those match-ups (76 percent win percentage).

Part of Maine's tremendous success in division play over the last two seasons can be attributed to the fact that New York has averaged 6.43 runs per game over those 21 games.

Florida Marlins: 2008 Season Preview

Matthew Foust — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 05:11:09 -0400

Key Acquisitions: Mark Hendrickson - SP, Andrew Miller - SP, Cameron Maybin - OF, Mike Rabelo - C, Alex Gonzalez – OF

Strengths: Florida doesn't have too much to brag about, but they can feel pretty good about their offense. In division play they averaged 5.13 runs per game, and an even more notable 5.53 runs per game at home.

The Marlins also hit right handed pitching well as they finished in the top third in almost every major offensive category when facing right handers.

The Fish have good speed in the field and on the bases. In 2007 they swiped 105 bags.

Weaknesses: Luckily for the Marlins they know how to score runs because their pitching staff certainly knows how to give them up. In 2007 they allowed a staggering 6.67 runs per game at home in division matches.

On the season they padded most team’s offensive numbers by ceding 5.50 runs per game.

Apparently the Marlins skipped the fundamentals at spring training too, because they played defense the way a real fish might. Florida had a league leading 137 errors.

The bats weren't all great either. Left-handed pitchers frustrated them and they enjoyed striking out (8.22 per game). This would explain how they drew the fewest walks in baseball (313).

Summary: The Marlins made a splash with their off-season swap with the Tigers, but most of the attention seemed to go to Detroit. What the Marlins did was impressive as well. Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin will be roster lynchpins in the near future.

However, the Marlins young pitching staff must produce quickly for them to be competitive in 2008. Their bullpen should be adequate if they can reduce the number of walks.

Finally, losing Cabrera will hurt their offensive production, but will not cripple it. They need to focus more on stopping the other team from scoring if they want to stay out of the cellar this year.

Prediction: Fifth Place in the NL East

Probable Starters

1B: Mike Jacobs

2B: Dan Uggla

3B: Jose Castillo

SS: Hanley Ramirez

C: Mike Rabelo

LF: Josh Willingham

RF: Jeremy Hermida

CF: Cameron Maybin

Key Players & Trends

If you're looking for lefties who've frustrated the Marlins you can stop. Jamie Moyer of the Phillies is your man.

In seven meetings against the Fish, Moyer is 7-0 and Florida has averaged just 2.86 RPG. The Marlins only had more than two earned runs twice in the seven games versus the veteran pitcher.

Despite Florida's poor offensive production against Moyer, the total still went over in five of the seven games.

Atlanta Braves: 2008 Season Preview

Matthew Foust — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 04:59:10 -0400

Key Acquisitions: Mark Kotsay - OF, Tom Glavine - SP, Josh Anderson - OF, Omar Infante – IF

Strengths: If the Braves are in your ballpark and there is a lefty on the mound, look out. Atlanta averaged 5.61 runs per game on the road in the division. On the season they averaged an impressive 5.00 runs per game. They also scored more runs and had more RBI than any team in baseball against left handed pitching.

In 2007 the Braves also knew how to work the count as they drew 534 walks (12th most in the league). Their starting rotation was good last season, and it got better with the signing of Glavine. One through three they are as good as anybody. Without Glavine, they held teams to a 4.52 RPG average.

Atlanta also has a solid bullpen in place, they were 10th in runs per inning allowed.

Weaknesses: Last season the Braves struggled a little bit with right handed pitching. While not terrible, they were in the bottom half of the league in HR's, RBI, and runs scored versus righties.

Atlanta also had their share of miscues in the field. The Braves had 107 errors on the year (9th worst in baseball).

The bullpen, while impressive in most areas, did give a few too many free passes, it ranked 21st in walks per inning allowed.

Summary: The Braves appear to be in position to make a push for the NL East title. Not only did they bring Tom Glavine back into the fold, they have a number of strong canidates to fill out the back end of their rotation.

If Mike Hampton can return healthy, and if Jo-Jo Reyes and Jair Jurrjens can meet their promise, this club could do great things. That's a lot of 'ifs' but they will be fine either way.

This team will not have trouble scoring runs and their top three starters will keep them in things even if the back end falls apart. The Braves also possess a quality bullpen but did lose reliever Ron Mahay to KC. Losing Andruw Jones doesn't help things but Kotsay and Anderson should be an adequate platoon tandem in CF.

Prediction: First Place in the NL East

Probable Starters

1B: Mark Teixeira

2B: Kelly Johnson

3B: Chipper Jones

SS: Yunel Escobar

C: Brian McCann

LF: Matt Diaz

RF: Jeff Francoeur

CF: Josh Anderson

Key Players & Trends

Tim Hudson has pitched in Atlanta for three seasons. During that span the Braves are 60-38 when Hudson starts for them (61 percent win percentage). They have won at an even better rate when Hudson has started against NL East opposition, in those games Atlanta is 28-14 (67 percent win percentage).

The Braves have posted similar numbers with John Smoltz since he returned to a starter's role in 2005. Atlanta is 61-40 in games Smoltz has started the last three seasons for a win percentage of 60 percent.

Will Joe Girardi Make the Yankees a Good Bet in 2008?

Matthew Foust — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 09:53:03 -0400

Boston fans can start screaming now, but everybody knows that the New York Yankees are the flagship of professional baseball. It’s hard to argue with the Yankees history, both recent and past (26 World Championships, 39 AL Pennants, and a current 13 season playoff streak).

However, all of the pageantry and lore of the franchise hasn’t necessarily made the Yankees a great bet, especially in recent seasons. In fact, it has been much the opposite. Last year the Yankees were a negative money line bet at home, on the road, against right hand pitchers, and against lefties.

So while Joe Girardi has his work cut out for him in not disappointing a spoiled fan base, handicappers have some work to do as well in figuring out if Girardi can turn the Yankees into a good 2008 bet.

In order for Girardi to do what Joe Torre could not, he will have to some how get his squad to come through even more frequently in those games where the Yankees are laying tremendous odds. With some of the lines New York had last season, it was almost impossible for them to be a good team to wager on – at least on the money line. It was not uncommon for the Yankees to have money line odds of -180, -200, or even -220 last year, particularly during their post All-Star break surge. Lose a few of those and your record against the line can look bad in a hurry.

To be fair, and realistic, the only way for Torre to have made his team a better team to wager on, in regard to the money line, would have been to slow the tremendous offensive production his team was churning out. What manager wants to do that? There was a perception last year, especially with the general betting public, that the Yankees averaged about 45 runs per game.

The odds makers took advantage of this and Yankees money line bettors frequently paid the price. So, in order to accommodate the betting public, look for Girardi to keep A-Rod, Robinson Cano, and Bobby Abreu to about 100 games apiece in 2008 (tongue firmly in cheek).

However, all is not lost with this team. Just don’t fall prey to the following misconceptions and the Yankees may turn into a reliable bet, regardless of how Girardi performs his managerial duties. First, the Yankees don’t win every game (gasp). Second, they don’t average 45, 20, or even eight runs per game. Third, New York is not always OVER against the total. And finally, avoid betting on the Yankees or anybody else when you have to lay odds of -200 or more.

Also, learn when and where the Yankees possess value as a team to bet on. A good place to start looking is in division play. The number of games between opponents is conducive to establishing trends and angles for the astute bettor to examine.

In the case of the Yankees, and with many teams where the bettor has to lay ridiculous odds, take advantage of the run line. Last season in division play if New York won the game, 67 percent of the time they won by two or more runs. In home division games this percentage increased to 76 percent. Further, against Tampa Bay, it rose to 90 percent. So take your chances here, you may lose more games (or you may not) but your bankroll will be far better off and the Yankees will appreciate getting out of your personal loss column too.

Kansas City Royals: 2008 MLB Season Preview

Matthew Foust — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 09:29:03 -0400

Key Acquisitions

Jose Guillen—OF, Bret Tomko—SP, Miguel Olivo—C, Yasuhiko Yabuto—RP, Ron Mahay—RP, Alberto Callaspo—2B, Mike Maroth—SP, Hideo Nomo—SP

Strengths

The Royals have solid pitchers at the front of their rotation in Meche and Bannister, and a potential ace in Zach Greinke.

Kansas City held division rivals to 4.58 RPG on the road and their bullpen ranked 13th and ninth in runs per inning allowed and walks per inning allowed respectively. KC also has a budding star in reliever Joakim Soria who could anchor the bullpen for quite some time. Not bad for a Rule 5 draft pick.

Weaknesses

Kansas City may have been batting with pool cues when they played division foes at Kauffman Stadium last season. They only mustered a 3.89 RPG average in their own park.

They weren't much better on the road, barely breaking four runs per game there. Right-handed pitchers bedeviled the Royals regardless of location. KC's power numbers were severely sub-standard in 2007 too.

The depth of their starting rotation is also an issue. They have many arms competing for the last two spots but none of them appear to be stunning. KC was also near the bottom of the league in drawing walks.

Summary

Kansas City had a busy offseason—and it was much-needed. The Royals addressed some needs, but they still have some kinks to work out. Their fourth and fifth rotation spots are up for grabs, and while the front of the rotation appears to be solid, Bannister must prove that his stellar rookie campaign was not a fluke and Greinke must become more consistent as a starter.

Kansas City also needs their young bats (Gordon, Teahen, and Butler) to come alive. The addition of Jose Guillen could be the catalyst for that to happen as he should provide some protection in the batting order.

KC also took steps to insure that their improved bullpen did not drop off by signing Ron Mahay and Japanese reliever Yabuto.

Have they done enough to move out of the cellar? Things are starting to look better, but so is the competition.

Prediction

Fourth Place AL Central

Probable Starters

1B—Justin Huber/Ross Gload

2B—Mark Grudzielanek

3B—Alex Gordon

SS—Tony Pena Jr.

C—John Buck

LF—Mark Teahen

RF—Jose Guillen

CF—David DeJesus

DH—Billy Butler

Key Players and Trends

Division opponents averaged only four runs per game against KC when Gil Meche started. Meche gave up only four or more earned runs twice against division opposition in 12 starts.

KC averaged only 4.08 RPG in support of Meche in his 12 division starts. The 8.08 RPG averaged in Gil's 12 division starts was 1.52 runs below the league average runs per game in 2007 (9.60).

Finally, only four times did the combined score in Meche's 12 appearances reach double digits.

Detroit Tigers: 2008 MLB Season Preview

Matthew Foust — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 09:24:47 -0400

Key Acquisitions: Miguel Cabrera – 3B, Dontrelle Willis - SP, Edgar Renteria - SS, Jacque Jones – OF

Strengths: Detroit has power bats throughout the lineup and possesses the ability to score in bunches. The Tigers were relentless against right handed pitching, scoring almost 700 runs - 133 of those the long ball variety. This club also hit lefties just below a 300 clip. The offense churned out 5.47 RPG on the road in the division. They have veteran pitchers 1 through 5 as well. Ace Justin Verlander matches up with anybody and he is just now entering what should be his prime.

Weaknesses: The only pitcher who dominated division opponents in 2007 was Bonderman, who ironically had a difficult season on the whole. The bullpen has some strong points (Fernando Rodney, Todd Jones) but it struggled to be consistent. It ranked in the bottom third of the league in RPIA and walks per inning allowed. Detroit also fought to keep division teams off the board at Comerica Park (they gave up an even 5.00 RPG there).

Summary: The Tigers had the best off-season of any team in baseball. They've added great talent to an already potent lineup. Last season Detroit struggled to produce runs at home in division play. The additions of Cabrera, Renteria, and Jones should more than fix that problem. However, for them to overtake Cleveland their starting rotation and bullpen will have to perform better than it did a year ago. Todd Jones is not getting any younger and Joel Zumaya will be out until at least mid-season. Additionally, Jeremy Bonderman will have to rebound from a sub-par 2007 as will Dontrelle Willis. There is no doubt Detroit will be a major force but they still have a few questions to answer before they can be crowned champion.

Prediction: 2nd Place AL Central

Probable Starters

DH: Gary Sheffield

CF: Curtis Granderson

RF: Magglio Ordonez

LF: Jacque Jones

C: Ivan Rodriguez

SS: Edgar Renteria

3B: Miguel Cabrera

2B: Placido Polanco

1B: Carlos Guillen

Key Players & Trends

Nate Robertson finished 2007 with a 9-13 record; however the Tigers were just 10-19 in games he started. In AL Central games Detroit finished with a record of 3-8 when Robertson took the hill. The average game score in Robertson's 11 division game starts was 8.27. Additionally, only five times out of those 11 games did the games score exceed eight runs. In the last three seasons Detroit is 38-57 when Robertson starts, so the Tigers lose 60 percent of the time when Robertson pitches. Since 2005 the Tigers are 11-23 when Robertson starts in division games - in other words, Detroit has lost 68% of the time that Robertson started in division games from 2005 through 2007.

Will the Brewers Fall Prey to the Sophomore Jinx?

Matthew Foust — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 11:44:38 -0400

Everybody in Milwaukee probably has their fingers crossed hoping their beloved Brewers don’t fall victim to that invisible but deadly foe—the “sophomore slump.”

Nobody expected the Brewers to contend for the NL Central crown last year, but for much of the 2007 season they looked like the team to beat. However, the Brewers faded down the stretch and the Cubs eventually ended Milwaukee’s improbable run to the playoffs.

After a breakout year, the baseball world is now wondering if the Brewers can build off of last season’s success or if they will fall victim to baseball’s most notorious phantom.

We’re asking the same question but to answer it properly we’ll have to turn to more than sorcery and superstitious thinking.

First, let’s look at what the organization lost as well as what they acquired in the offseason.

Milwaukee saw 2007 contributors Francisco Cordero (bullpen), Geoff Jenkins (outfield), Scott Linebrink (bullpen) and Johnny Estrada (catcher) hit the door.

They, in turn, welcomed catcher Jason Kendall, outfielder Mike Cameron, setup man David Riske, and closer Eric Gagne to the fold.

It would appear—at least on paper—that the Brewers more than made up for their losses. The only position that appears to have been possibly downgraded is catcher. Kendall is not what he once was, but he still is an adequate presence behind the plate.

Second, we’ll need to see how the current starting rotation matches up to the 2007 version.

In 2007, Milwaukee sported a reliable staff that finished around the middle of the league in most statistical categories and toward the top in strikeout to walk ratio.

They did this with arguably their best pitcher, Ben Sheets, out for the months of May, June, and July. Can they out perform this in 2008?

The answer is almost certainly yes. The second half of last year saw the emergence of Yovani Gallardo, who figures to be the No. 2 or 3 starter from the outset this year.

Milwaukee also has two talented young pitchers in Carlos Villanueva and Manny Parra who will likely push the weaker links in their 2007 rotation, Chris Capuano and Dave Bush, to the bench.

Additionally, the Brewers hope to have a healthy Ben Sheets for the length of the 2008 season. All of these factors point to the rotation having more talent and more depth this season. A slump should not originate on the mound for this squad.

Where is the next likely spot for a collapse to occur?

Usually, it would stem from a feeble batting order. Feeble does apply to Milwaukee’s lineup in any way.

Even if one player were to have an off stretch, the Brewers have no shortage of gifted bats to protect them against just such an occurrence. This is a team that averaged 4.94 runs per game in 2007 (5.43 in divisional play).

It’s not plausible that Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, and Mike Cameron are suddenly going to forget how to hit the ball. These guys will protect each other, forcing pitchers to pitch to each guy. A collective collapse would have to occur for this to be the cause of a major fall backward in the standings.

Another area that must be examined is where any additional Milwaukee losses would come in division competition.

Who in the NL Central has improved enough that they are going to overtake the Brewers in the standings?

The answer is nobody.

While Houston made a number of good off-season moves and is much improved for 2008, they are still chasing Milwaukee. Cincinnati could be better as well but they have way too many question marks to even consider them as a spoiler.

St. Louis appears to be in a state of transition and the Pirates are in a constant state of horrendous. The short answer is that the NL Central is a slump elixir for any team with reasonable talent.

Lastly, to get an indication of how the Brewers might do in 2008, take a look at the odds that most major sports books are giving Milwaukee.

After all, these people make a living doing this type of thing so it’s a good place to check. Most MLB futures show the World Series to be a reach; however the Brewers are getting good odds on the NL Central title.

Bookmaker.com, for example, has Milwaukee at +230 odds to win its division. Bookmaker is not alone in its positive outlook, both BoDog and Sportsbetting.com have Milwaukee’s odds for winning the NL Central listed at 9-4.

So, it looks like the Brewers have all the inside and outside intangibles to safeguard them this season.

Despite what superstitions baseball players and fans cling to, talent usually overcomes them. Based on that, I’d say Milwaukee is a pretty safe bet to avoid a drop off in 2008.

In fact, I would say they are a safer bet to cause a slump than to experience one.

MLB: 10 Spring Training Questions

Matthew Foust — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 11:37:58 -0400

Baseball is already upon us, despite what it may look or feel like outside. Spring training has forced its way onto winter and the Boys of Summer are already catching fungos. So go ahead, put your coats and long underwear away and try to pretend that you’re sitting in your favorite stadium on opening day eating a hot dog and enjoying your favorite beverage. Or just ponder these 10 questions, in no particular order of importance.

Will Joe Girardi’s hard-nosed reputation go over with a largely veteran Yankee ballclub?

Girardi proved in 2006 that he has the make-up to be a great manager in the big leagues. He took control of a team that had the lowest payroll in professional baseball and almost guided it into post-season play. However, not everything was roses in Miami as Girardi lasted only one season due to a rift with Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria. He also implemented a few hard line rules that some of the players did not like. That said, Girardi is well respected around the league and many admire they way he handled the falling out in Florida. Since the Yankees have struggled in the playoffs as of late, it is likely that Girardi will have their ears. Most of the Yankee players are used to a few quirky rules anyway. George Steinbrenner has always been known for his eccentric behavior and handling of players and managers. Only time will answer this question, but it is hard to see someone who was viewed as a consummate teammate falling too far out of favor with his players.

Will Francisco Liriano be able to return to his pre-injury form?

In 2006 Francisco Liriano looked like the second coming of, well, Johan Santana. All that came crashing down in September of his rookie year when the southpaw suffered season ending Tommy John surgery. With Santana now in New York, everybody in the Twin cities area is hoping that Liriano can return to the electric form he displayed in 2006 and do it quickly. If Liriano looks like he did in his rookie campaign, he could change the entire complexion of the Twins season.

Who are the real Colorado Rockies?

The 2008 season should give the Rockies the perfect opportunity to let baseball fans know just who they really are. For the past few seasons, and for a good majority of the 2007 season, the Rockies looked to be capable of only poor or pedestrian play. Sure, they had some firepower and a few good arms but they never really seemed to move forward, until…well we all know what happened in September of 2007. Was that amazing run late in the season the result of a team that finally broke through or was it just a flash in the proverbial pan? With most of last year’s NL Championship team returning this season (they lost 2B Matsui to the Astros, reliever LaTroy Hawkins to the Yankees, and starter Josh Fogg to the Reds), the real Colorado Rockies should be able to stand up.

Were the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks an aberration?

Nobody expected the Diamondbacks to take the NL West crown last season. Once they accomplished that improbable feat everybody expected them to receive a playoff dusting at the hands of the Cubs. The red hot Rockies finally bagged Arizona but that occurred about two months after their predicted implosion. Still, the manner in which Arizona won last year puts a big question mark next to them this season. In 2007 division play the D-backs averaged almost an entire run less than what they allowed. It is hard to envision a team doing that two seasons in a row and maintaining a place at the top of the standings. While Dan Haren certainly bolsters an already quality rotation, he doesn’t bring a big stick. And big sticks are exactly what Arizona needs to prove that last year wasn’t smoke and mirrors.

Will Hideo Nomo make a return to the big leagues?

Just file this question in the nostalgia folder. Even if Nomo does return it is unlikely that he’ll have a dramatic impact. Still, it will be interesting to see if this former All-Star and pioneer of the Japanese influx has what it takes to return to the mound. He looked overweight and out of shape at the start of Spring Training, but he did turn in a nice preseason game against the Padres, allowing no earned runs and three hits in two innings of work. He will get a legitimate shot as the Royals have spots open at the backend of their rotation.

With all the off-season hype, are the Tigers destined to disappoint?

No organization received more off-season accolades than the Tigers. The praise was not out of line. Detroit added tremendous talent to an already potent line-up. However, it seems as though everybody is focused on the names and not what Detroit actually has to do in order to overtake the Indians. Did everybody forget Jeremy Bonderman’s struggles last year? Dontrelle Willis was sub-par in 2007 as well, is he going to fair any better in the hitter’s half of the league? The Tigers bullpen, while sound, is not any better than Cleveland’s and based on last year’s performance their starting rotation is not as good. Detroit may well meet expectations, but there is also a decent chance that they come up short. When everybody is ready to crown you ALCS champions, second place in the AL Central might be hard to stomach.

Will Ryan Braun suffer a sophomore slump?

Before this can be answered, the baseball gods should be required to define what a slump looks like. Because in the case of Braun his numbers could drop off sharply and he could legitimately be having a decent season. He definitely set the bar high in his rookie campaign (.324 BA, 43 HR, 97 RBI, .370 OBP, .634 SLG.), so high in fact, he may have no where to go but down. However, with the tools he possesses and the quality protection he gets in the Brewers batting order, it is doubtful that baseball fans will forget his name in 2008.

Does the acquisition of Johan Santana make the Mets the NL East front runner?

There’s lemon sour and then there’s 2007 Mets sour. Sorry lemons, you lose. The Mets must have had the longest off-season of any team in baseball. The real kicker for them is the way the fell on their faces at Shea, especially against division opponents. Fortunately for New York the sun finally rose again on February 3, 2008. Yes, arguably baseball’s best pitcher joined forces with the orange and blue to help them shed the final remnants of 2007. Apparently, he’s done more than that. The acquisition of Santana has the mild mannered Carlos Beltran feeling so good that declared his team the team to beat in the NL East. Is he right though? Well, the Venezuela native most definitely will help a staff that gave up 5.50 RPG to division foes at Shea last season. If Pedro is healthy too, than the Mets have a rotation that looks to be equal to or better than Atlanta’s and certainly ahead of the Philadelphia’s. Front runner? It is hard to say, but the Phillies are probably hearing footsteps.

Who will be this season’s worst team?

This might be more competitive than the race for the championship with several teams vying for a spot at infamy. It is of note too because, as any good handicapper knows, bad teams are usually some of the best to wager on. For the sake of simplicity the field will be narrowed to three strong contenders. Drum roll…Oakland, San Francisco, and Pittsburgh. The rebuilding A’s and the aging Giants could make it a rough year for Bay Area baseball fans. The Giants, however, are probably the best of this group just based on the quality of their starting rotation. Oakland lacks offensive punch and they traded away their best starter (Haren). They are also rumored to be shopping their second or third best starter in Joe Blanton. Both of these teams at least appear to have some direction though. Then there are the mighty Pirates. What did the organization do to address a 2007 team that had little offensive firepower, a poor bullpen, no speed, a rotation with little depth, and an inability to draw a walk? They stood pat. The Pirates are still trying to find their treasure at the bottom of the NL Central; they’ll get another chance to look for it this year.

Who is the top 2008 Rookie of the Year candidates?

There are always some unexpected names that make their way into the race and that will be no different in 2008. Let’s go with some potential gems that are being mentioned. First up is Boston pitcher Clay Buchholz. This kid has nothing to live up to; he only threw a no-hitter in his second major league start. Florida outfielder Cameron Maybin is another strong candidate. Despite his struggles in a brief stint last season, everybody says he is a five-tool player with can’t miss potential. A couple of dark-horse contenders could be Royals starter and former number one pick Luke Hochevar and Tampa Bay third baseman Evan Longoria. Hochevar pitched fairly well in his 2007 September call up and he has looked good thus far in Spring Training. Longoria has shown the ability to hit for both average and power; he, along with a number of other players, has Tampa Bay excited about the future.

Chicago White Sox 2008 Season Preview

Matthew Foust — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 07:22:04 -0400

Key Acquisitions: Octavio Dotel - RP, Orlando Cabrera -SS, Nick Swisher - OF, Scott Linebrink – RP

Strengths: The White Sox didn't have much to write home about last season in the way of positives. They generated slightly above average offense at U.S. Celluar and they did hold division teams to 4.25 RPG on the road. Their brightest spots were at the front end of their starting rotation and at the back end of their bullpen. Buehrle pitched well in matching up with opponent aces and Bobby Jenks recorded over 40 saves as the closer. Offensively, Chicago pounded out 190 homers on the year which was good for sixth best in the league.

Weaknesses: Where to begin…the bullpen should do. The White Sox relief staff was a train wreck in 2007 with the exception of the aforementioned Jenks. They ranked 28th in both runs per inning allowed and walks per inning allowed. The Sox also gave up 5.04 RPG in division play and 5.83 RPG at home to division rivals. Their gloves had as many holes as their bullpen; they committed 108 errors on the season (8th worst in the league). Chicago also struggled against both right and left handed pitching, ranking near the bottom of the league in runs scored against both. Starting rotation lacks quality depth too.

Summary: While the White Sox have made a number of moves to correct last season's problems it looks to be too few. Certainly they have upgraded at short stop (Cabrera) and centerfield (Swisher) but their bullpen moves may not be enough. Linebrink will certainly help, but Dotel will only be a factor if he can remain healthy and he has not shown the ability to do that in recent seasons. Frankly, they will need more than these two to upgarde a bullpen that finished 28th in both RPIA and walks per inning allowed. However, they will be highly competitive in a race for third between themselves, Minnesota, and Kansas City. How the combination of age and youth affects their starting rotation will likely determine their fate.

Prediction: 3rd Place AL Central

Probable Starters

1B: Paul Konerko

2B: Danny Richar

3B: Joe Crede

SS: Orlando Cabrera

DH: Jim Thome

LF: Josh Fields

CF: Nick Swisher

RF: Jermaine Dye

C: A.J. Pierzynski

Key Players & Trends

Mark Buehrle has appeared against Kansas City 34 times in his career. He has given up 81 earned runs in those 34 games, 31 of which he started, for an average of 2.38 per game. Since 2001, the White Sox are 21-9 against Kansas City when Buehrle started the game (70% win percentage). In 2007 Buehrle had an 8-4 record against division opposition.

Cleveland Indians 2008 MLB Season Preview

Matthew Foust — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 06:00:56 -0400

Key Acquisitions: Nobody

Strengths: The Indians have depth and experience in their starting rotation. They only allowed 4.03 RPG to division foes in 2007. Their bullpen is also outstanding, ranking 5th in the league in runs per inning allowed and 4th in walks per inning allowed. They hit right handed and left handed pitching well as illustrated by their 5.26 RPG average in division play. They produce runs both at home (5.33 in division games) and on the road (5.19 in division). Cleveland also handles the leather well, their 92 errors on the season attest to this fact.

Weaknesses: The Indians don't really have any major weaknesses. The only real concerns/weaknesses they may have going into 2008 are the possible lack of experience at the 5th starter position and if Joe Borowski can duplicate last year's effort as closer. He did have 45 saves but his stuff is far from great. He could be replaced by Rafael Betancourt sooner rather than later.

Summary: Everyone appears ready to crown Detroit division champion - not so fast. The Indians have done nothing to diminish a championship level club from a season ago. They have alot of talent on the rise and nobody will knock them off the top of the division easily. The only real question marks are Sabathia and Carmona. Everyone knows Sabathia will be good but it remains to be seen if he will still be in his 2007 Cy Young form for what will likely be his last season in Cleveland. And will Carmona be able to build on a breakout 2007 season or will he look more like the post-season pitcher who struggled to keep Boston runs off the board? Those are good question marks to have, expect both pitchers to answer and answer well.

Prediction: 1st Place AL Central

Probable Starters

1B: Ryan Garko

2B: Asdrubal Cabrera

3B: Casey Blake

SS: Jhonny Peralta

DH: Travis Hafner

LF: Jason Michaels

RF: Franklin Gutierrez

CF: Grady Sizemore

C: Victor Martinez

Key Players & TrendsI

In 2007 C.C. Sabathia pitched 18 times against division opposition. The average game score was 8.22 and the game score totaled only nine or more runs in seven out of the 18 games. Sabathia relinquished only 48 earned runs to division rivals, holding them to a 2.67 average over his 18 appearances. Cleveland went 12-6 in 2007 against divisional competition when Sabathia started. Since 2004 the average game score in divisional competition when Sabathia pitches is 8.31.