Bleacher Report - Articles by Michael Taylor

Cleveland Indians: A Bullpen Call to Arms: Part Two

Michael Taylor — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 07:26:05 -0500

Part one of this series can be viewed here.

AAA Reinforcements

Indians beat writer Anthony Castrovince recently announced that Adam Miller, the much hyped (and injured) Indians top-prospect, is not only once again registering as high as 97 MPH on the Jugs speed guns, but will be officially moving to the bullpen to end Arizona Fall League. This has major implications for the Indians and the 2009 bullpen.

Should Adam Miller actually stay healthy as his workload lightens, and he gets to “let it fly” in the bullpen two to three times a week rather than having to pace himself in the rotation, the Indians may have a dynamite piece to the puzzle. He has a nasty two-seamer/slider mix that would fit right in late in games.

He undoubtedly will start in AAA Columbus, who as we will soon see will have quite a depth of quality bullpen arms, but depending on health Miller, he will be a part of the Indians bullpen at some point during 2009 as he gains the confidence of the coaching staff. Who knows, maybe Miller is the Indians closer by 2010.

There also other excellent options that all may develop into closing options later in their careers from this likely initial AAA roster. Jon Meloan, Jeff Stevens, and Tony Sipp all have prior closing experience, or project to have the tools to become a closer-type. These are real viable options that the Indians did not have ready to go a year ago when the injuries and problems in the bullpen hampered the team.

Jon Meloan is an interesting case of a pitcher who the Dodgers successfully propelled into one of the elite reliever prospects in the game before deciding to curb his career into a starting role. That failed, and Meloan was sold low to the Indians.

If he can hold down high walk rates, he will find a home in the Indians bullpen and utilize an excellent strikeout rate to be a high ceiling reliever. If not, he will still be on the roster sporadically, and will be on a bus down I-71 and back just as Eddie Mujica has been to Buffalo the past few years.

Though, having Meloan doing that is step up in my opinion from Mujica being that guy.

Of less risk is the “bag of balls” from the Brandon Phillips deal, Jeff Stevens. Stevens has gone from a no name prospect to highly touted bullpen option in only a couple of seasons. He has a tremendous 11.6 K/9 the last two seasons and is typically a groundball pitcher with 46 percent groundballs during his minor-league career.

At 25, Stevens will be added to the 40-man roster before the upcoming Rule V draft to protect him. Once on the 40-man, there will be less of a reason to keep him down if he keeps dominating as he has the past two seasons since becoming a reliever in the Tribe farm system.

He may be up by May and be an integral part of the Indians staff, and too just as Miller may, become the Indians closer by 2010.

The other of the premier trio of AAA prospects, is a left-hander Tony Sipp. He at one time was thought to be listed ahead of Rafael Perez on the depth charts before undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing the 2007 season. He also has a plus-slider/fastball combo that along with his change-up net huge strikeout totals, even after his injury. Sipp struck out 46 batters in 33.2 innings with a 2.67 ERA after his return in June.

Sipp is set to start at AAA Columbus for his first taste of AAA hitters before reaching the big leagues. He, just as Stevens and Meloan, is on the 40-man roster and may be called up at any time. Again, if all goes well, he will be up and begin getting experience to become an important part of the 2010 bullpen, and maybe even next seasons.

Other options are less exciting but remain very plausible major-league options. Rich Rundles found a way to rejuvenate his career as a lefty-specialist last season as he managed to significantly increase strikeout totals, and he even made the jump to Cleveland in September with brief positive work. Tom Mastny will also still be around as a depth option with minor league options remaining.

Both are 28 and in make-or-break years in their progression. There is potential there to be serviceable relievers, but they quickly may be passed over by the talent pool.

There is one last option, and quite honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked if he will be put available on waivers. Eddie Mujica is out of options for next season, and has to be on the 25-man roster unless he clears waivers.

As we saw, there is a spot available for him, but locking him and Jackson both into the bullpen would leave no flexibility, and really, has Eddie Mujica really shown us anything with his 6.02 ERA in 70 career innings? Put me into the boat of placing him on waivers to protect another prospect for the upcoming Rule V draft.

So, as we have seen here, the Indians are in much better shape for internal reinforcements as compared to previous seasons. The relief talent is now at the top level of the system and no longer will the transaction bus be bringing the Mujicas, Mastnys, and Brian Slocums as fill-ins.

There will be real potential on that bus that will certainly net a couple of prize possessions from the list for years to come.

Recruiting

Externally, the Indians are out recruiting and placing calls to try and reel in some help for the upcoming season. Let’s be honest: As bright as the Indians upper farm system now is in relief talent, do they really want to rely on that in 2009 to be there and producing in a potential pennant race?

It would be great to have that happen, and likely one of them will make it next season, but you can’t expect it to happen with youth. It is a supplement until proven capable.

With that said, and with the extra spot in the bullpen, the Indians are in the market to make one big upgrade, which they should be doing. I mean, think about it. If the Indians can net a respectable closer, push Lewis back into the setup role with Perez and Betancourt, and use Jackson/Kobayashi as the less pressured relievers, there would be a better symmetry to the bullpen.

The Indians could have four proven relievers to close down games, and the upcoming infusion of youth would only supplement this core.

The rumor mills are rampant, listing names from guys like Kerry Wood, Brian Fuentes, Huston Street, Kevin Gregg, Chad Cordero, Jason Isringhausen, Trevor Hoffman, and the list could go on. All would be nice additions, some are heavier in contract and some are cheaper due to injury.

To me, the ideal solution is becoming clearer. With this nearing influx of talented arms, along with Perez/Lewis for the future, the Indians likely house the future closer of this team internally. So obtaining flexibility is key, closer or not. The Indians need to maintain the ability to transition the bullpen with guidance from experienced proven veterans.

There are a couple of names there, Huston Street and Kevin Gregg, both in arbitration years, which would help the Indians fit budget while obtaining a lower risk pitcher during their prime. These guys would not put long-term financial stress on the team if they do not work out. The Indians would just not offer arbitration the next season or even could trade away the pitcher if a market remains.

There is no way the Indians could afford to sign say a Fuentes and he becomes the next Borowski, that the team could eat $10+ million a year for that 60 innings of work per season.

Wherever the solution comes from, it most certainly will be from the trade market if the Indians go closer, the Free Agent options just don’t add up for this team right now, unless they are going setup men.

The top of this market brings the names of Bobby Howry, Juan Cruz, Jeremy Affeldt, Luis Ayala among others. This list is certainly cheaper and any additions to the bullpen would only supplement the current staff while Jensen Lewis remains the closer for the time being. Each would be within a $2-5 million range per year, about where Gregg and Street would also fall.

In the end, the likely external pickup will be someone that we have yet to read or hear about in the mainstream as of today. It always seems to be that way. So no sense in really analyzing these names too much until they are on the team.

But the point should be taken, that flexibility and the Indians not tying themselves to a large contract in terms of both years and dollars will be key to transitioning the bullpen while remaining competitive.

Battle Plan

As the Indians enter 2009, the bullpen has nowhere to go but up. And that can only help to guide this team back towards their goal of winning the A.L. Central Division once again and making the playoffs for another shot at the Series.

The Indians and their fans should take notice that the bullpen is about to become an exciting part of this team with Miller, Sipp, Stevens, maybe even Meloan, to go along with Perez and Lewis in the near future.

There are nine names internally of the 11 mentioned from AAA Columbus and Cleveland that are under control of the Indians through at least 2012 and beyond until free agency would kick in. The only two that have outs soon are Kobayashi and Rafael Betancourt, which may happen after this next season.

To help supplement this transition of veterans into youth and stay competitive in the short-term, the Indians must acquire one, preferably even two proven veterans that also provide some flexibility in their ability to transform the bullpen, a la Street or Gregg.

Following this, and assuming the talent does pan out as it looks like it should, the Indians will find themselves in an admirable position in a year with a load of bullpen talent that will be a core to this team for the foreseeable future while allowing the Indians to really focus their budget on bigger fish for the rotation or infield.

Cleveland Indians: A Bullpen Call to Arms: Part One

Michael Taylor — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 07:23:32 -0500

It is no secret that the Indians and GM Mark Shapiro are looking for some new recruits to pitch highly leveraged situations late in games. Cleveland fans have witnessed it.

Over the past three seasons, the Indians and its bullpen have gone from very bad to lights-out dominating to again not-able to-watch bad, and it has shown in their records. These vital situations can make or break a team.

This is because the bullpen is such an important part of any championship contending ball club.

Just look at the teams in the World Series. Both Philadelphia and Tampa Bay were top-five in the Major Leagues in bullpen ERA. They had excellent late-inning relief, just as the Tribe had in ’07 when they were oh-so close to the World Series.

So where does the Indians bullpen go from here to recapture that magic, and again contend in ’09? It must get an infusion of outside talent on top of praying for a return to normalcy from a certain few arms if there is to be a sniff of any October baseball on the lake again, right?

That would be ideal, but contrary to general perception, the Indians' bullpen may not be as bad off as you think.

And one might argue that this year’s bullpen will be deeper and more talented than it was entering 2008 when it was viewed as a team strength, especially when taking into consideration the vast pool of talent at AAA.

I will deal with this in two parts. The remainder of this article will discuss pitchers on the Indians active roster that will be slated to start the season in the bullpen. The second article will feature upcoming minor league talent and external options.

Locked-and-Loaded for 2009

On any team you can pretty much write in that there will be six...maybe seven...guys in the bullpen at any given time. Currently, the Indians have already five names virtually locked in to start the season.

Starting in long relief, which the Indians really didn’t have entering ’08, is Zach Jackson. As we all know, Jackson was part of the infamous CC Sabathia deal in July. He made nine starts for the Tribe down the stretch, finishing with a 5.55 ERA.

He is by no stretch overpowering or flashy, but did do a respectable job. He enters this season out of options, and must be on the 25-man roster unless the Indians try to sneak him through waivers.

He could start the season in the rotation, but that is unlikely with other similar options present and Jackson being left-handed. He would be the second left-hander in the bullpen, helping to alleviate Rafael Perez from those duties and keeping Perez late in games where he belongs.

While Jackson has only a small sample size of major league experience versus left-handed hitters, his minor league splits suggest that he can get leftys out with a .263 BAA and a solid 3.5 K/BB ratio against left-handed hitters.

By no means is Jackson going to be the difference in the bullpen, and time will tell if he even sticks, but he initially looks to give the Indians options. He can go long, spot start, go into the rotation in case of injury, or be called upon to get a lefty out. Hopefully, the latter becomes his specialty, because his career as a starter will not last.

Working backwards, Masa Kobayashi will be next on the depth chart.

Signed with thoughts of him being the Indians version of Hideki Okajima, Kobayashi slowly turned into his hot-dog eating champion alter ego as the season wound down. Kobayashi past his usual innings worked load in August and found himself sparingly used by Eric Wedge the last six weeks of the season to save him from completely crashing.

The Indians still have Kobayashi locked through 2009 and own a 2010 club option. He will be on the team, but expectations have been lowered for the 34-year-old Japanese right-hander after his rookie campaign led to a very average 4.53 ERA.

He will likely start as a middle innings reliever with a slight hint of promise if he can keep his 89 MPH fastball in the ballpark. Kobayashi does have good command of the strike zone, not walking many batters, and does get a high number of groundballs. Don’t discount him just yet, but the Indians should remain cautious.

Following Masa on my hypothetical depth chart to enter 2009 is Rafael Betancourt. Raffy Right as we have grown to know him as suffered through his worst season as a pro.

Betancourt was inserted into the closer role in late April after much speculation that he was the rightful choice for that job, and blew up.

The Indians now must know that after two tries over his career, Betancourt just is not that guy. After quickly losing confidence and losing his pinpoint control of his fastball (which must have transferred into Cliff Lee’s arm), Betancourt took a long time to right himself.

Eventually he found himself closer to his usual self and posted a respectable 3.72 ERA after the All-Star break. I wouldn’t expect much different than that this year. He still has excellent command and once the fastball is back in his arsenal and he stops having to throw the slider/ change-ups, he will be tough to beat.

The Indians have him signed though ’09, with a ’10 club option, just as Kobayashi. Betancourt should again be a very good compliment to his pal Raffy Left.

Rafael Perez in my opinion is the man to take over as the Indians closer.

Too bad for him he is left-handed, which on a team that had no other LH options made it hard to take him out of his important role and actually finish games.

He is the one guy that the Indians can count on coming in and giving a great performance on a rather consistent basis. He has great stuff and is another Indians pitcher who generates a high number of groundballs. Mix that with his plus-strikeout skills and the Indians have one of the premier relievers in the game.

You could even argue that he is the closest thing to Billy Wagner in the league right now. If you get a chance, look at the splits. Not too different, Perez doesn’t quite match Wagner’s strikeout rate during his heyday, and does still have to work on the HR ball, but once he figures that out there is no stopping him.

Perez is arbitration eligible through 2012 with the Indians.

The last lock in the Indians initial bullpen, as it sets right now, is the incumbent closer, Jensen Lewis. If there is to be an upgrade to this bullpen as currently shaped, it will likely be in the closer role, but that is no slap in the face to Jensen and his abilities. He did an outstanding job, and may again do a very fine job if the Indians decide that the market will not allow for a replacement.

Lewis converted all 13 save opportunities with a 2.52 ERA and 22-to-4 K/BB ratio once given the job. He helped to solidify the bullpen and the team as the Indians coasted through the last two months of the season winning like it was 2007 all over again.

I, just as the Indians seem to hint at, would be OK if Lewis entered the season as the Indians' closer. He may never continue the dominating performance that finished ‘08, but he has the potential to become a respectable closer, and certainly numerous times better than Joe Bowrowski ever was.

So in a nutshell this is what the Indians have right now, signed and on the active roster entering 2009:

1. Zach Jackson

2. Masa Kobayashi

3. Rafael Betancourt

4. Rafael Perez

5. Jensen Lewis

6. TBA

7. TBA?

This leaves one to two more spots to fill before the season starts. The second part in this series will delve into the Indians options to fill these jobs, from outside of the organizations and inside from the strong core of minor league talent.

PART Two

Roto Chronicles: American League, Sept. 29

Michael Taylor — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 01:16:50 -0400

I would like to take this opportunity in the last Chronicle of the 2008 season to thank you for reading. Whether you read from the beginning in March, or picked up at any point through the season, I hope that I was of assistance in your pursuit for fantasy glory.

My goal was not only to bring you trends in player performance, but to go deeper into the numbers and present a more rounded look into a players’ ability, whether they were in the minor leagues, on your waiver wire, or in your starting lineup.

As we finish up 2008, what better is there to do than to start preparing for 2009? We have discussed all of the current major-league worthy fantasy players all season, so this time lets take a look into some names that I have discussed in the Futures Market section, and some new names that have yet to be discussed that could make an impact in 2009.

Each season, we all want to know who will be the next great rookie that we can find cheap and will help us win the big prize at the end of the season. So, without further ado, who will be next season’s Evan Longoria, Alexei Ramirez, Joba Chamberlain, Armando Galarraga, Mike Aviles, Jacoby Ellsbury, Chris Davis, Brad Ziegler, Nick Blackburn, Ben Francisco, David Murphy, Denard Span, or Matt Joyce?

That may be a long list, but there are always numerous rookies that at various times throughout a season are important factors in a fantasy season. This was most of them from the American League this year. Here is a list of who may be mentioned in this same manner next year.

Catcher—Matt Wieters, BAL

If you’ve read my column this summer, you know how much I love Matt Wieters. I would even dare say that he could become the top fantasy catcher as soon as he has the full-time job in Baltimore. All he did this season was destroy minor-league pitching at a .355/.454/.600 clip.

Those splits include 27 home runs, 91 RBI, 89 runs scored, and an excellent 82-to-76 walk-to-strikeout ratio. And he didn’t even falter upon his promotion to AA Bowie. There, Wieters hit for a higher average (.365 to .345), higher OBP (.460 to .448), and higher SLG (.625 to .576).

Looking deeper, Wieters hit for an excellent .383 BABIP at both Single-A Fredricktown and AA Bowie, had a combined 15.8 percent walk rate, a combined 17.4 percent strikeout rate (only 13 percent in AA), a groundball rate of 48 percent, and a home run every 16.1 at-bats. With these rates, it is easier to see why he is already being compared to Mike Piazza.

The question entering 2009 will be if he is the starting catcher from day one or if it will be later in the season. However, it seems a forgone conclusion that it will be next year, as he manhandled AA pitching at the age of 22. With that said, pay attention to his name, because if Ramon Hernandez does get traded this offseason, Wieters needs to be in your top-five catchers come draft time.

First Base—Kila Ka’aihue, KC

Alright, raise your hand if you had heard of Ka’aihue before this season. I bet there are not many of you who do. Heck, I hadn’t heard of him either. He was a career .256 hitter in the minor leagues, with a career high of 21 home runs.

What a difference a year makes. Time will only tell, but Ka’aihue’s breakout is slightly reminiscent of Geovanny Soto’s 2007 breakout from obscurity.

Before Ka’aihue’s September call-up to the Royals, in which he hit .286 with a home run in 21 at-bats, Ka’aihue hit .314 with 37 home runs and 100 RBI between AA and AAA.

He not only continued to showcase an excellent command of the strike zone, walking 20.5 percent of the time and only striking out 16.7 percent of the time, but his BABIP bounced back to a more standard .300-plus average, which allowed his batting average to recover.

The road is fairly open for the Hawaiian slugger, with only Ross Gload and Ryan Shealy in front of him. I am certainly not counting on either of them to keep the gig throughout 2009.

So, when you hear Ka’aihue named as the starting first baseman in Kansas City, it may end up being bigger news than you initially think. At least that’s what some of us looking for sleepers are hoping.

Second Base—Eric Patterson, OAK

In a light position for prospect talent in the American League, I had to dip a little deeper. Not actually to be considered a rookie for 2009 (he will be eight at-bats over the limit), Eric Patterson is a young middle infielder to watch, who will get regular playing time in the Oakland infield, as Mark Ellis is likely a parting free agent.

Patterson does not have the potential to become a top-of-the-line second baseman statistically, but in terms of his draft status going into 2009, he could become a sleeper pick because of his good speed and rather unfortunate .192 batting average this season.

That was partially because of a low .258 BABIP, when his standard has been over .330. He also has a solid history of hitting over .300 in the minor leagues with an OPS of .840.

The only drawback to Patterson is that he struck out an unusually high 25 percent of the time this season, as compared to a usual 16-20 percent range. If he can get that back to a manageable rate, he could be a .275 hitter with 10-15 home runs and 20-30 steals. Not bad potential for someone who likely will be undrafted next year.

Third Base—Wes Hodges, CLE

The Indians are currently void of anything remotely representing a fantasy player at the hot corner. They traded away their only productive third baseman in Casey Blake at the deadline, and Andy Marte can officially be written off as a bust. With that said, where do the Indians go for help?

Will they resign Blake in the offseason? Will they move Peralta to third, as some have suggested they should? Well, the answer may be right in front of them.

The Indians’ farm system has two third baseman, Beau Mills and Wes Hodges, that should be ready in the next two years, with Hodges likely ready to log some time in the Indians infield next season, if no free agent is signed from a really weak class at the position.

Hodges is a former second-round pick from 2006 that played this season in AA Akron, hitting .290 with 18 home runs and 97 RBI. He does not project to have much more than average power at the position, but is a hitter who has plus on-base skills.

He will initially only be worth tracking in AL-only leagues, but the potential is there to be more than a waiver wire player.

Shortstop—Reid Brignac, TB

Next year will be a big season for Brignac, if he gets the opportunity in Tampa or not. The incumbent shortstop, Jason Bartlett, is a free agent after the season, leaving a chance that Brignac could find himself with an opportunity if Bartlett should not re-sign.

Brignac has seen his status drop over the past two seasons, as his batting average and power numbers have plummeted to a .250 average and nine home runs this season, but just two short years ago, Brignac was hitting over .300 with 24 home runs and 15 stolen bases between Single and Double-A.

The power numbers, though down, are a bit misleading, because he missed time with a broken wrist this season. He also had trouble with an uncharacteristic 26 percent strikeout rate, which directly led to the decrease in batting average.

If he gets the shot in Spring Training next season at playing in Tampa, and you see his strikeout rate hovering around a usual 16-20 percent, Brignac is a solid sleeper pick.

Outfield—Travis Snider, TOR

This one should not be a surprise to anyone that has seen this guy hit. Snider, listed among the top-10 prospects in the entire league, climbed three levels of minor-league competition to land in the Blue Jays' outfield as a regular to end the season.

He started in High-A Dunedin before a quick promotion to AA New Hampshire, where he hit a modest .262 with 17 home runs before another promotion to Syracuse led to a .344 batting average and two home runs there. Then, with Toronto, Snider hit .301 with two home runs and 13 RBI in 73 at-bats. That’s a lot of movement in one season.

Put it all together and his numbers are .279 with 25 homers and 104 RBI.

Scouts rave about Snider’s potential as a run-producing, middle-of-the-order bat that will produce not only power, but also a good average to boot. My only concern is of his major issues with the strikeout, 177 times in 560 combined at-bats.

This will certainly be a limit on his batting average, as it was in his time at AA, where the majority of his at-bats occurred, but to counteract this, Snider has a tremendous BABIP track record of just under .400.

While I like his potential, I am not 100 percent sold enough to spend a higher draft pick that I am sure he will command in 2009. Regardless, there is no doubting his tremendous potential and the fact that he will be a force in the league for years to come.

Outfield— Nolan Reimold, BAL

Nagging injuries have slowed this young slugger's career. Drafted in the second round of the 2005 amateur draft, Reimold is soon to turn 25 and is yet to make it out of AA. That will change next year, after Reimold had a productive full-season for AA Bowie.

In over 500 at-bats, he hit .284 with 25 home runs and 84 RBI. He also showed plus on-base skills, with a 0.77 BB/K ratio.

Reimold will start the 2009 season in AAA, awaiting a call to the big club, as the Orioles are again set to start the season with a Luke Scott, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis outfield. Even with that said, I am not going to rule him out of earning or taking a job from someone.

Aubrey Huff will likely be moved to first base with Kevin Millar a free agent, leaving the designated-hitter position open. Whether that is Luke Scott or not is to be seen, but when Reimold does make the jump to Baltimore, he is a potential .290 hitter with 25-home-run power.

Outfield—Matt LaPorta, CLE

The much-heralded power-hitting prospect will be one step closer to the big show next season. Best guess is that LaPorta will begin 2009 in AAA Columbus (now Indians affiliate) as a final tune-up until a roster spot opens up on the Tribe.

The Indians have been quiet thus far about their intentions in positioning LaPorta, who could become either a first baseman or left fielder. The emergence of Shin-Soo Choo in left for the Indians may be making their decision a bit easier, with Ryan Garko not progressing as hoped at first.

So, as of right now, all signs point to LaPorta becoming the Indians' first baseman in the near future, but if there were an injury in the outfield, he could end up there as well.

What is not up for debate, however, is LaPorta’s game-changing power and potential to be an elite run producer. He may have struggled late in the season after being acquired by Cleveland, but during his brief time in the Milwaukee system, he hit .293 with 32 home runs and 97 RBI in 114 games.

He hit a home run once every 13 at-bats. That is pretty impressive. Just as Evan Longoria was this season, it may be worth a draft and wait until LaPorta is promoted. Once he is, you will reap the benefits.

Pitcher—David Price, TB

Not too many pitchers come along with the sort of hype that this former Vanderbilt left-hander possesses. Drafted first overall in 2007, Price began his professional career in Single-A Vero Beach this season before accenting through the ranks to finish with Tampa as many had projected he would.

Price backed up his glowing scouting reports with 123.2 innings of excellent work over four levels of competition. He finishes the 2008 regular season with a cumulative 12-1 record and 2.26 ERA. He also has 121 strikeouts to just 36 walks, which is a very good 3.4 K/BB ratio. Add in his groundball tendency and Price, even as a rookie, should give some very promising numbers next season.

There is no way that he will not be in the rotation at some point early in the season. Edwin Jackson is a free agent, and there is no way that, if he is re-signed, that he or Andy Sonnanstine will be able to hold off the inevitable take over of Price and or Jeremy Hellickson/Wade Davis (both of whom I like as sleeper picks).

Bid with confidence in drafts that on a very good Tampa Bay team that Price, barring any injuries or unforeseen extreme struggles, will have a shot at 15 wins, plus strikeout numbers, and a mid-three ERA as a rookie.

Pitcher—Gio Gonzalez, OAK

Gonzalez’ first experience above AA was not as successful as hoped after leading the minor leagues in strikeouts in 2007. Gonzalez began 2008 in AAA Sacramento, where he appeared in 23 games with an 8-7 ERA and 4.26 ERA before being promoted into a depleted Oakland rotation in early August.

In hindsight, it was probably too soon to promote Gonzalez, as he had yet to completely figure out AAA hitters, but going forward, he is still a pitcher to pay attention to.

He has excellent strikeout rates and a groundball tendency, which is a good combination to have. The important stat to watch with Gonzalez going forward will be his walk and home-run rates.

He has allowed nine home runs in his brief 34 innings with Oakland, and he has walked over six batters per nine innings. Both of those numbers are way above historical minor-league rates, as you would expect.

If Gonzalez can settle in during Spring Training and earn a spot in the rotation for 2009, and keep his walk/home run rates reasonable, he will be a player to watch and start for some strikeouts.

Pitcher—Michael Bowden, BOS

All of the talk early in the season was about Clay Buchholz and his immense talent, but by the end of the season, Michael Bowden was making waves in the Red Sox's organization. Bowden does not have the strikeout ability of Buchholz, but he has better command of the zone and keeps his pitches down in the zone, which has limited the number of home runs allowed.

In his major-league debut, Bowden earned a victory with a five-inning, two-run performance against the White Sox.

He began the season in AA Portland, where he went 9-4 with a 2.33 ERA and 101 strikeouts to 24 walks before being promoted to Pawtucket. He did not enjoy the same amount of success there, but he still managed a 3.38 ERA in 40 innings of work while maintaining an excellent K/BB ratio.

Bowden will be in the running for the fifth-starter job in Spring Training, but he will most likely begin in AAA and be the first guy called up when someone is needed. If he is lucky enough to find a way into the rotation for an extended period of time, give Bowden a look; he may just stick and surprise.

Pitcher—Kevin Mulvey, MIN

The Minnesota Twins always seem to find good young pitching to plug into their rotation that gives solid innings while not hurting the team’s chance at winning. See the entire rotation this year.

Mulvey is another of the prospects brought in by the Johan Santana deal to New York last offseason. He has four pitches that he can throw for strikes consistently, which enables him to keep the ball on the ground and in the yard. Mulvey pitched the entire 2008 season for AAA Rochester, where he went 7-9 with a 3.77 ERA.

Nothing extravagant, but it was his first season above AA, and Mulvey actually increased his strikeout rate to a career high 7.36 per nine innings.

If Mulvey maintains his current strikeout rate and finds a way to return to his extreme groundball tendencies (career low 40 percent GB as compared to numbers as high as 55 percent previously), he should find an opportunity in the Twins' rotation by midseason. Once there, he could be next year’s Nick Blackburn or better.

Pitcher—David Huff, CLE

As if the Indians need another talented left-handed pitcher in their rotation. Huff, who has yet to make his major-league debut, will compete for a starting job in Spring Training next year. The only reason that he did not make a start in Cleveland this season was because he is not yet on the 40-man roster, and the fact that the Indians wanted to limit his innings total.

In 146.1 innings split between two levels, Huff was 11-5 with a 2.52 ERA and 143 strikeouts to 29 walks. He is being compared to Cliff Lee because of his excellent K/BB ratio, which was as high as 5.40 in AAA.

He could be one of the most intriguing rookie pitchers in next year's draft pool because he will not be thought of as highly as a David Price, so the opportunity is there for a bigger bargain.

If Huff earns a starting job behind Lee, Fausto Carmona, and Anthony Reyes to start the season, make a move to add him and his excellent changeup. He may just become the Indians No. 2 starter by year's end.

…

For the National League and more news and history from MLB, visit SEAMHEADS.com

Roto Chronicles: American League, Sept. 8

Michael Taylor — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 15:15:19 -0400

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

Bobby Abreu, OF—NYY (UP) Much to my surprise, when researching over stats for this week, I found that Bobby Abreu has hit .349 since the All-Star break, with six homers and six steals. I had known that he was hitting well, but .349 made me do a double take. He has always been a guy who hits for that mixture of average and power with some speed, but what could be leading to this hot streak? Well, during this run, Abreu has cut his strikeouts down to 14.3 percent of at-bats while walking 12.7 percent. He also has a .385 BABIP in the second half, which is obviously unsustainable, but should that be at his usual .350 level, Abreu would still be hitting around .320. At 34, Abreu’s power looks to have faded a bit, but he can still give one of the best all-around stat lines in the league.

Billy Butler, 1B/DH—KC (UP) If I were to tell you that a player has hit .320 with eight home runs and 34 RBI since the All-Start break would you believe that they were still available in 67 percent of leagues? The overall slump and lack of power displayed by the Royals 1B/DH during the first half of the year really turned off owners, as he hit .249 with two home runs before the break. You could tell that the talent was there, but the league had adjusted to him. Well, he has adjusted back and is now displaying the batting-average potential that we have heard about. Butler is also mixing in the long ball at a rate better than at any previous point in his short big-league career. Butler will again be a player to buy later in the draft next season.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B—BOS (UP) What can you say other the man knows how to hit, and that he keeps getting better. After hitting a robust .317 as a rookie, Pedroia has backed that up with a .330 batting average during his sophomore campaign. What is even better, Pedroia has more than doubled his home run total to 17, and also his stolen base total to 17. He is a true all-around threat. He is also the current American League leader in both batting average and runs scored (111). One of the driving factors in his ability to hit for a high average is that he strikes out just eight percent of the time, along with a sustainable .338 BABIP. Buy with confidence in next season’s draft that he can, and will, be a steady force for years to come.

Brandon Inge, C/3B/OF—DET (DOWN) Many were excited when Brandon Inge was given the opportunity to be an everyday catcher again in Detroit after Ivan Rodriguez was traded. He was just two years removed from hitting 27 home runs and remained a decent home-run threat. However, he is just a .238 career hitter, and the last time he was behind the plate Inge could barely crack the .200 mark. History looks to be repeating itself. Since the trade, Inge has hit .191 with three home runs and 14 RBI. Inge does have a very unfortunate .248 BABIP, which says that his batting average should be higher, but even then a 26 percent strikeout rate will limit any upside.

Gary Sheffield, OF/DH—DET (DOWN) This one is pretty obvious, but it is worth noting that Sheffield, with all of the injuries this season, he may be experiencing his worst season. Sheffield is hitting just .223 with 14 home runs in 364 at-bats. Known for limiting his strikeouts as a slugger, Sheffield is striking out 20 percent of at-bats for just the second time in his career. As a reference, Sheffield was at 10 percent just two years ago. Also of note is a declining home-run rate. Sheffield has hit just 11 percent of flyballs over the fence after hitting 13.7 last season. Finally, Sheffield has a very low 13.2 percent line-drive rate, which is a key explanation for his .243 BABIP. Should Sheffield stick around next season, I wouldn’t expect another season as bad as this, but with the fragile nature of his body, I wouldn’t be expecting much either.

Mark Teahen, 3B/OF—KC (DOWN) This was to be a very important season for Mark Teahen in Kansas City. After hitting .290 with 18 home runs during his sophomore season in 2006, Teahen maintained a .285 average, but only hit seven home runs in 2007. That season was to be the fluke, and Teahen was to bounce back with the home runs and keep hitting for an average this season. That hasn’t happened. Teahen has slumped to a poor .245 with 12 home runs. His stolen base total has also dipped from 13 to 3. Now, after four seasons in the league, Teahen has yet to really develop, and I would not be certain that he’d be a safe bet to again be an everyday player in Kansas City. He is purely an average to below-average player.

Pitchers

Francisco Liriano, SP—MIN (UP) Counting the minor leagues, Liriano has now won 15 decisions in a row. That is simply remarkable when you think about it. A few no decisions are sprinkled in there, but 15 decisions without a loss. Amazing. Even more frightening, Liriano looks to have figured out the slight command issue that he had during his first few starts after the recall. Liriano has walked just two hitters over his past 20 innings, while striking out 18. Overall, since rejoining the Twins, Liriano is 5-0 with a 1.44 ERA.

Francisco Rodriguez, CL—LAA (UP) Even though Rodriguez has been impressive all season long with saving games, his underlying statistics have never been better at any point of the season than they are right now. During August and into September, Rodriguez’ strikeouts have skyrocketed while his walk totals have dropped. This is an excellent sign that he is completely over that early-season ankle injury that led to the drops in velocity and strikeouts. Over these past five weeks, Rodriguez has 21 strikeouts to two walks in 13 innings of work. He also has 11 saves and an ERA of 2.07. Only three more saves are needed for the record.

Javier Vazquez, SP—CHW (UP) Vazquez has to be one of the most consistent starting pitchers, year in and year out. Sure his ERA has ranged as high as 4.91 and as low as 3.42, but you get 32 starts a year with excellent strikeout totals, a good WHIP, a shot at 12-15 wins, and an ERA around 4.25. Since the All-Star break, Vazquez is only 4-5 but has a good 3.80 ERA, a .238 average against, and 58 strikeouts to 15 walks. This puts his numbers at an 11-12 record with a 4.34 ERA, certainly less than ideal, but the 175 strikeouts to 49 walks are his meal ticket. Should he ever find a way to strand more runners, as you would believe that he would with the high strikeouts, Vazquez could really have a special year. I buy again next season.

Jon Garland, SP—LAA (DOWN) It is very hard to trust a Garland start each time that he takes the mound. He has a career-low strikeout rate of just 4.03 per nine innings, an increasing walk rate to 2.71 per nine innings, a high 22.6 line-drive rate allowed, and 22 home runs allowed. His fielding-independent ERA of 4.86 is the highest it has been since 2004 with the White Sox when his ERA was a career high 4.89. Since the All-Star break, Garland is 4-2, but his 5.59 ERA and 69 hits allowed in 56.1 innings are very unappealing to the 22 percent who still own him. Utilize as a spot starter in favorable matchups but nothing more.

Andy Pettitte, SP—NYY (DOWN) It’s hard to put a finger on exactly what has happened to Andy Pettitte since June, but over the past two months, he is 4-7 with a 5.16 ERA. This is after going 9-5 with a 3.98 ERA through June. The best that I can come up with is that he is having problems with an unlucky strand rate since then, as his rate is a rather low 68.8 percent on the season. All of the other indicators of hits, strikeouts, walks, and home runs seem to match up within reason. So I wouldn’t buy into this slump very much, as Pettitte has increased his strikeout rate this season while decreasing walks. He should continue to be a very solid fantasy starter into next season.

Greg Smith, SP—OAK (DOWN) Smith did have a somewhat promising start, throwing seven scoreless innings on Saturday night, but the five walks to two strikeouts did not look very good. Smith has been having this problem for quite some time now, walking 28 to 25 strikeouts since the All-Star break. Not only is he walking more, but he is giving up more hits, as batters are hitting .286 as opposed to .228 before the break. This has led to a 1-7 record and 6.02 ERA since the break. I would stay away. However, he does have one point in his favor. He is a flyball pitcher in a pitchers' park, which is why his BABIP has remained at a low .259.

INJURY REPORT

Baltimore is again switching closers due to an injury, lucky for them one is coming back as the other goes on the disabled list. Jim Johnson, who took over for George Sherrill a few weeks back, had an MRI on his shoulder Friday. It showed enough “abnormalities” that the O’s decided to shut him down for the remainder of the season. Also, Sherrill will be finishing his last side-session today and should be ready to rejoin the Orioles' bullpen this week.

Melvin Mora continues to sit with his strained left hamstring, now missing over a week of action. It is still unclear if and when Mora will be ready to go. All that can be said is that he is day-to-day, and that you should reserve until he is ready to go.

The Red Sox welcomed back a small crew, including Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, and Sean Casey last week. One name not on the list, J.D. Drew, is still recovering from the herniated disc, but he is now taking batting practice and shagging flyballs. There is no timetable as of yet, but he is getting closer.

Tampa Bay activated Evan Longoria over the weekend, but he will only begin hitting batting practice today and may pinch hit until he is completely ready.

Big news in Chi-town, as Joe Crede is out for the season with his ailing back that flared up again. Oh wait. There was an even bigger injury. Carlos Quentin, the possible AL MVP, broke his wrist punching his bat after an at-bat against Cliff Lee. It don’t get much worse than that for the White Sox.

You lose not only your starting third baseman, but your driving force in the resurgence into contention. Quentin will miss at least three weeks, and if the White Sox make the playoffs, he may have a shot at playing again.

Anthony Reyes left start a start on Friday night after the third inning. He was again pitching well, but he felt some soreness in his throwing elbow. The Indians will hold him out one start and go with Scott Lewis for his major-league debut Wednesday.

There continues to be no Travis Hafner sighting in Cleveland, but that should change this week. He finished up a stint with AA Akron during their playoffs on Saturday and likely will be activated this week. Though, with him still not 100 percent healthy, don’t bet on much production this month. It has been stated that if he returns he will not be playing regularly.

The Tigers remain without their third baseman Carlos Guillen, due to a pinched nerve in his back. Out since Aug. 25, Guillen may be back Tuesday, but he may not come back at all. The Tigers really don’t know. Guillen did not travel over the weekend with the team to Minnesota.

The Angels are expected to welcome back middle infielder Erick Aybar from a strained hamstring early this week. He took batting practice over the weekend and is scheduled to begin a running program today. He hopes to be getting back onto the field during the Yankee series.

Justin Duchscherer is done for the season, according to manager Bob Geren. Duchscherer experienced a setback with his hip injury during a bullpen session Thursday. He finishes the season 10-8 with a 2.54 ERA.

The A’s will be welcoming back Sean Gallagher from his “shoulder fatigue” this Wednesday against Detroit. He threw five scoreless innings during a AAA rehab start for Sacramento on Thursday night. Before Gallagher went onto the DL, he was experiencing some serious command issues, walking 28 over his last 39.1 innings. This was likely partly due to the fatigue, but it is worth noting.

The season is officially over for the Mariner’s rookie catcher, Jeff Clement. He will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. Clement finishes a rather disappointing .227 with five home runs.

Jarrod Washburn missed a start over the weekend with an abdominal strain, which led to Brandon Morrow’s masterpiece on Friday night. He is not expected to miss more than that one start, but manager Jim Riggleman isn’t ruling out more.

Milton “day-to-day” Bradley is again at it. He was scratched from the lineup on Saturday for wrist soreness. How annoying is this? He is listed as day-to-day, as he should always be.

Vicente Padilla is returning to the rotation in Texas. He threw a final side session on Friday, with no setbacks in either his neck or hamstring. He will start Tuesday in Seattle. I would not recommend this start, even if it is against Seattle.

The Rangers and Ian Kinsler finally decided to hang it up this season. The sports hernia has been too much to overcome in such a timeframe, and the surgery that he will have was a necessity before next season anyway. Might as well get it out of the way now and focus on 2009.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver-wire pickups)

Juan Uribe, 2B/3B/SS—CHW With the news of Joe Crede finishing the season on the disabled list, Juan Uribe finds himself back into the everyday lineup. If not for a rather poor April, when Uribe was at second base, he has had a rather fine season. Since May 1, Uribe has hit .275 with five home runs and 24 RBI in 175 at-bats. The .275 batting average is what should stand out, as Uribe is a career .253 hitter. He is also hitting .278 since the All-Star break and is a career .291 hitter in September, with 32 of his career 111 home runs, nearly twice as many as any other month has. With Uribe hitting over 20 percent line drives and keeping his batting average and flyball rates up, a surge in home runs may be looming on the current home stand.

Shin-Soo Choo, OF—CLE In the short-term, I like this add. Sometimes you just have to go with the hot hand during the stretch run of September. Choo still strikes out too much for my taste, 26.4 percent of at-bats, but currently is on a tear with a 22 percent line-drive rate and .363 BABIP. His home-run-per-flyball rate is also a very solid 13.5 percent. Hitting .343 since the All-Star break with an OPS of over 1.000, Choo has slid under the radar until late. He has been stuck in a platoon with Franklin Gutierrez, and likely will still get some days off against left-handers, but should this continue, he is earning more time and a shot at a full-time starting job in 2009. The line that I like is his .404 OBP and .959 OPS against right-handed pitchers for the season. He is must play at this point when a right-hander is on the mound.

Brandon Morrow, SP/RP—SEA Quite an impression was made during Morrow’s first major-league start. The starter turned reliever turned back into starter nearly no-hit the Yankees on Friday night before Wilson Betemit broke it up in the eighth inning with an RBI double. On the night, Morrow went 7.2 innings with one run on one hit, eight strikeouts, and three walks. We surely can’t expect that on a routine basis, but even if Morrow’s strikeout rate drops while in the rotation, as it will, it should remain at a substantial enough level to offset even average control. That will be the key. Can he maintain his command during this transition? If yes, the Mariners have a potential No. 1 or No. 2 starter in development.

Shaun Marcum, SP—TOR Grab him should he remain available following his great performance on Saturday. Marcum went seven innings, shutting out the Rays while giving up just four hits and three walks. He also struck out seven. It was his first start with the Jays since Aug. 22, when he was sent to AAA Syracuse after struggling with his command upon returning from the disabled list. If this start is any indication, Marcum should be a fine boost to any rotation down the stretch, just be aware that he does give up a fair amount of home runs that can hurt him quickly. I would expect about a 3.75 ERA and a couple of wins the rest of the way.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL RELIEF PITCHERS

1. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS
3. Mariano Rivera, NYY
4. Joe Nathan, MIN
5. Joakim Soria, KC
6. Bobby Jenks, CHW
7. B.J. Ryan, TOR
8. Fernando Rodney, DET
9. J.J. Putz, SEA
10. Brad Zeigler, OAK

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For the National League and more news and history from around MLB, visit SEAMHEADS.com

Roto Chronicles: American League, Sept. 1

Michael Taylor — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 07:28:03 -0400

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

Johnny Damon, OF—NYY (UP) Damon has bounced back after a subpar 2007 in terms of batting average. Damon hit just .270 and it looked as if he was in the midst of a continuing decline phase. Turn the page to 2008 and a .350 BABIP has Damon’s batting average back above .300, along with 11 home runs, 57 RBI, and his usual 25 stolen bases and counting. He is certainly a catalyst for any offense and would be scoring more runs if not for the rest of the Yankees' lineup struggling to hit him in. Damon does still have 79 runs scored and an outside shot at 100 for the season. While an increased strikeout rate (to a career high 15.4 percent) and the high BABIP suggest his batting average would be lower, it looks as if Damon will continue to be a solid source of production for at least a few more seasons.

Curtis Granderson, OF—DET (UP) If you look at the raw stats for Granderson, as compared to 2007, you would say that his value would have decreased, yet this version of Granderson projects much better for a more sustained run of success. He has improved his LH batting split to a solid .275, decreased his strikeout rate to 18 percent (it was nearly 30 percent just two years ago), maintained the power stroke with an ISO of .209, and has increased his walk rate to 11 percent. Just as Damon is the Yankees catalyst, Granderson is to the Tigers, scoring 91 runs in 115 games. He looks primed to be a top-notch fantasy player for the foreseeable future.

Vernon Wells, OF—TOR (UP) Wells has had a rough year with injuries, missing two months of the season to wrist and hamstring issues. Though when on the field he has rebounded from the disastrous 2007 that saw him hit just .245 with 16 home runs. As a career .282 hitter, that couldn’t continue. Wells sports a good 12 percent strikeout rate and 14.6 percent home-runs-per-flyball rate in order to maintain his .299 batting average. With such a contact rate, Wells projects to have the ability to hit in the .280-.290 range on a consistent basis. The main problem we saw last season was an extreme dip in BABIP to .265. Barring any of those unforeseen surprises, Wells should remain a hitter that should produce a solid batting average with 25 home runs, 90 RBI, and a handful of steals. And the potential remains for more as we have witnessed in 2003 and 2006.

Hank Blalock, 3B—TEX (DOWN) The injuries may be taking a toll on Hank Blalock’s production, at least for the 2008 season. Since returning from the various injuries that have sidelined him, Blalock has hit .214 with no home runs or RBI in 10 games. The first time he returned this season in July, Blalock hit .206 with a homer and eight RBI in nine games before going back on the disabled list for the second time. For the season, he is hitting .258 with only four home runs and 15 RBI. On a positive note, Blalock has cut back on strikeouts to 13.3 percent and has a slightly low .278 BABIP, but at this point of the season, and with so many injuries, do we care? This is another lost season for Blalock, and he will again be a sleeper for next season that some of us might take a flyer on.

Bobby Crosby, SS—OAK (DOWN) There is still some great love out there for this one-time Rookie-of-the-Year. The problem is that he won the award four years ago, and he hasn’t played a full season since. He looks to be on pace to play this full season, yet his production remains at the injury-riddled season’s rate and not his healthy rookie season (he even hit .239 that season). He has a below average 15.8 percent line-drive rate, only 4.8 percent HR/FB, and the usual below average .286 BABIP. Why this guy remains over 15 percent owned is beyond me. Give it up and move on.

Dioner Navarro, C—TB (DOWN) After making the All-Star team based on a very strong first half to the season, Navarro has hit just .240 with a .350 slugging percentage since the break. To an extent, this season is an exact mirror image of last season, when Navarro had a bad start to the season, but then looked like an All-Star after the break. He is likely at neither extreme, and is only a catcher that should be utilized in two-catcher leagues. Navarro’s power has remained at a low level, just six percent of flyballs, and he is no help in either the runs category or stolen bases. That leaves just batting average and RBI, and he only has 44 RBI. He will be able to maintain a respectable batting average, but if and when Navarro develops power is when he should be again looked at in mixed league, one-catcher environments.

Pitchers

Mike Mussina, SP—NYY (UP) It’s been two months since I last brought up Mike Mussina, and he continues to rebound from his poor 2007 campaign. Mussina now is second in the AL with 16 wins, to go along with a solid 3.41 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. The excellent control that is at career-high levels has been even better since the All-Star break. Mussina has just seven walks over these 59 innings, or 1.07 BB/9. He also is inducing a career high 48.3 percent groundballs. This has aided in him decreasing his batting average from .305 last season to .274 this season. He may still give up more hits than innings, but should he continue to maintain his command and limit home runs, Mussina will continue to be a solid fantasy option.

Fernando Rodney, CL—DET (UP) Now the official, full-time closer for the Tigers, Rodney is starting to shine. He has converted his last six save opportunities in a row and has been striking batters out at an incredible rate. During the month of August, as he has taken over the closers role, Rodney is striking out 13.8 batters per nine innings and is limiting hitters to a .182 batting average against. The downside is that he is still susceptible to the walk and a few home runs, but as a groundball pitcher, he should be able to limit the damage. His command has improved as he has worked his way back into form after missing half of the season on the DL. He will never be a Mariano Rivera, but for the time being, he is the best option the Tigers have and should do a decent job.

Kevin Slowey, SP—MIN (UP) For Slowey, the potential was there to start in 2008, as he was being compared to former Twins pitcher Brad Radke. Slowey, with excellent control, had to find a way to limit home runs allowed to succeed. He had allowed 16 in 66.2 innings during his rookie year of 2007. Mission accomplished. He has 18 home runs allowed in 133.2 innings, cutting his HR/9 from 2.16 to 1.21. Now that he has that near league norms, his ability to limit baserunners takes over. Slowey has a 6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, mixed with a .251 batting average against. All of this adds up to an 11-8 record and 3.70 ERA and since the All-Star break, Slowey is 5-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The best part of this streak has been the fact that he has 45 strikeouts to just five walks during this stretch.

Sidney Ponson, SP—NYY (DOWN) Ponson somehow managed a 4-1 record and 3.88 ERA before being released by the Rangers for being “disrespectful to the team.” Since signing with the Yankees, the old Ponson has returned with a 3-4 record and 5.64 ERA. I would be curious to see how much longer the Yankees go with him, as they fade from playoff contention and with Phil Hughes ready to return to the rotation. There shouldn’t be much room for a guy who only strikes out 3.7 batters per nine and walks just as many. It seems some keep waiting for his “talent” to develop, but how much longer you wait? He is nothing more than a stopgap major-league pitcher, so that should tell that two percent who own him that he is no fantasy pitcher.

Joe Saunders, SP—LAA (DOWN) I was going to write about Joe Saunders last week, until learning of Shaun Marcum’s demotion. The regression of Saunders that some of us have been waiting for has arrived. Statistically overachieving for most of the season, Saunders has an ERA of 5.32 since the All-Star break and an ERA of 6.93 during August. He now has a season-worst three starts in a row without a quality start, after his latest poor outing against the Athletics. His unsustainable 14.7 percent line-drive rate allowed and BABIP of .267 have been increasing as he gives up more hits than innings (54 hits to 44 innings since the break) as he has over his career. He is also striking out less batters, 4.33 K/9, than his career standard of 5.20 K/9. I wouldn’t expect a complete crash, but a reasonable 4.25 ERA the rest of the way should net two to three more wins.

Justin Verlander, SP—DET (DOWN) The 2008 season for the Tigers' ace has been a roller-coaster ride. He started on a free fall to an uncharacteristic 1-6 record and 6.43 ERA through his first seven starts of the season. He then went on a hot streak that saw him go 7-3 with a 2.57 ERA over his next 13 starts before once again struggling over his past seven starts with a 2-5 record and 6.47 ERA. The difference is not in his K/BB ratio, but rather a big difference in hits and home-runs allowed. During the 87.2 innings of his hot streak, Verlander allowed 64 hits and four home runs. During his 89.1 innings of slumps, Verlander has allowed 97 hits and 12 home runs. The K/BB ratio has stayed rather steady at around 2.1 K/BB. Also, Verlander has a low 66 percent strand rate that does hint to some misfortune. His fielding independent ERA is 4.06, which is just under his career 4.14 FIP. Readjust expectations accordingly, but keep him high on your list for 2009, as a bump in his control back to 2007 rates should net a decent gain in potential ERA next season

INJURY REPORT

Outfielder Adam Jones will be activated today from a foot injury that sidelined him during August. Jones completed an extensive workout Saturday with no problems and has been taking some batting practice. He will return to center field in the place of Jay Payton.

The flaming-hot Melvin Mora will likely be out a week after suffering a strained hamstring while running out a groundball on Friday night. He will not be placed on the disabled list, as it doesn’t appear serious, but keep an eye on it.

George Sherrill was originally scheduled to be activated today, but some shoulder stiffness after a throwing session has moved his return to the weekend. Jim Johnson figures to lose time in the closers role as Sherrill returns.

The fact that Josh Beckett was placed on the disabled list was not bad news, it was just procedure. Beckett had already missed significant time and this is retroactive to Aug. 19. He is slated to return Friday night, but that again is no guarantee. Stay tuned.

Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell is nearing a return from a strained oblique. Lowell has been taking swings off of a tee and has a meeting scheduled with team doctors to determine if he is ready.

Joba Chamberlain threw a simulated game in the bullpen Saturday, with no setbacks and said he is ready to go. He will finish the season out of the bullpen.

Don’t expect Evan Longoria back Tuesday as first suspected. He is still dealing with some weakness in the wrist that has kept him from swinging a bat. It may be the weekend, or it may be another week, the Rays just want to make sure he is healthy before bringing him back for the playoff push.

Travis Hafner suffered a slight setback last week when he felt some extra soreness in his injured shoulder. He missed a few starts before returning over the weekend. Hafner is 6-for-19 with three doubles and four RBI during his rehab. He, along with Josh Barfield, will finish their assignments today with AAA Buffalo before returning to the Indians' roster as rosters expand this week.

The Royals' rookie shortstop Mike Aviles will likely miss a couple of games after being hit on the hand by a pitch during Sunday’s game against Detroit. X-Rays were negative and he is just listed as day-to-day with a contusion.

The Angels’ infield injury merry-go-round has returned. Maicer Izturis, whom was already placed on the disabled list two weeks ago, has company. Infield mates, Howie Kendrick and Erik Aybar, are again ailing. Kendrick had a relapse of a previous hamstring issue and will miss at least two weeks on the disabled list.

Aybar, on-the-other-hand, has yet to be placed on the DL even though he has a sore hamstring. Aybar is said to miss the upcoming week as rosters expand, which will enable the Angels to give more time to the likes of Brandon Wood and Sean Rodriguez.

The Athletics will welcome back two starting pitchers this week as Justin Duchscherer and Sean Gallagher will be activated by the weekend. Duchscherer is eligible to be activated on Thursday, and Gallagher on Friday. Rumor has it that the A’s are going to go with a six-man rotation to allow sufficient rest between starts.

A strained right quad has again placed Frank Thomas on the disabled list. He missed 55 games earlier in the season with the same problem and might miss the remainder of the season. Barring a return, Thomas will finish the year hitting .240 with eight home runs.

The league-leader in RBI, Josh Hamilton is scheduled to finish the root-canal procedure today that has caused him to miss a small amount of time. Best guess is that he may miss another start before returning to the lineup.

What was initially only told as a neck problem, Vicente Padilla is now on the disabled list with a strained left hamstring as well. He should be able to return by mid-September to make another couple starts, but that shouldn’t matter to fantasy owners. Regardless of his wins total, Padilla is not that good.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver-wire pickups)

Eric Patterson, 2B/OF—OAK If you have a need for speed, take a chance on Eric Patterson. He has a history of some very high BABIP in the minor leagues that have led to a career batting average of over .300 in the minors. Currently, his BABIP with the Athletics is just .268, with a very good 21 percent line-drive rate. The 27 percent strikeout rate is a bit disappointing, but that should level off towards his usual 20 percent range. I would project Patterson hitting around .260 from here on out with additional steals. He already has nine stolen bases while having been to the plate just 113 times.

Ben Francisco, OF—CLE This rookie has been flying under the radar all season. Just nine percent owned, Francisco has hit .280 with 14 home runs and 50 RBI in 378 at-bats. If you extend his stats over a 162-game schedule you have a hitter capable of hitting 20-plus home runs with around 75-80 RBI. And don’t think that his batting average is not for real either. Francisco won the International League batting title last season with a .318 average and has a career .291 average in the minor leagues. He may never win a major-league batting title or wow you in any certain category, but if you are in the need of a fourth or fifth outfielder on a mixed-league team, you could do worse. A solid comparison right now would be Garret Anderson.

Dana Eveland, SP—OAK Struggling mightily just a month ago, Eveland was sent to the minor leagues for three successful starts, where his problematic command disappeared. Thus, when the opportunity arose for him to be recalled, Oakland made the move and Eveland is back. Since the recall, Eveland has made two quality starts and has given up just 14 base runners in 14 innings, while allowing just three runs. He also has a nine-to-four K/BB ratio. Should he continue to keep his command in check, his groundball tendencies should carry him. Eveland makes a favorable start against Kansas City on Wednesday night.

David Purcey, SP—TOR Mentioned a month back as an option on the waiver wires, Purcey has supplied some valuable performances. Three out of his past four starts have been quality starts, and his most recent start against the Rays did net him a loss, but in eight innings, he allowed only five hits and one run while striking out 11 batters. Since Purcey’s recall from Syracuse on July 26, he is 2-4, but he has a 4.37 ERA and 33 strikeouts to 10 walks. This command ratio is more consistent with historical minor-league norms. The one issue that could burn Purcey is his tendency to flyballs. He has given up eight home runs in 42 innings, but has just two over his past 24 innings. If he can limit that, Purcey will continue his recent success and be a solid sleeper pick for 2009. He has two starts this week against Minnesota and Tampa Bay.

FUTURES MARKET

This will be the last of the Futures Market section as the minor league regular season comes to an end. This week will highlight a set of players who may an impact during the final month of play who have jus recently been recalled or soon will be.

Michael Bowden, SP—BOS The Red Sox's top pitching-prospect not named Clay Buchholz made his major-league debut on Saturday against a good White Sox team. He threw 89 pitches in a five-inning start, allowing two runs on seven hits, striking out three to just one walk.

He bested veteran left-hander Mark Buehrle for his first major-league victory. Bowden was 9-7 with a 2.62 ERA with a 130-to-29 K/BB ratio combined in the minor leagues this season. He figures to get a solid look for the Red Sox during the season’s final month, and there have been thoughts that he could make the postseason roster in the bullpen.

Nelson Cruz, OF—TEX It took all season, but the Rangers are willing to take a third look at the power-hitting outfielder. As we all have heard, Cruz had a ridiculous .342 batting average with 37 home runs, 99 RBI, and 24 stolen bases.

Though this potential has yet to show itself when facing major-league pitching. Cruz has a career .231 average with 16 home runs in 467 at-bats. If you need some power for the stretch run, and he starts to how any hint of success, grab him up and hope that he has figured it out.

Phil Hughes, SP—NYY With Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson continuing to get rocked for the Yankees, we should see Phil Hughes making a few starts during September. After suffering through two rough starts when the decision was made to go to Carl Pavano, Hughes had a strong outing against Buffalo, giving up two runs in 6.1 innings while striking out seven to one walk.

The walk total is key. He has just five in 23 innings during his rehab with Scranton. Hughes had 13 in 22 innings with New York back in April.

Aaron Laffey, SP—CLE Aaron Laffey had an incredible run after his first promotion of the year in May when he lead the league with a 0.79 ERA over his first five starts. He eventually flamed out and returned to Buffalo to refine his mechanics and regain confidence. Now that rosters are set to expand, Laffey will be back, and manager Eric Wedge has stated that he plans on using Laffey in the rotation.

Ideally, he would replace Jeremy Sowers, but the Indians still want to see him. So Wedge has hinted to a six-man rotation for September.

Travis Snider, OF—TOR The Jays' top prospect has made it to the show. Manager Cito Gaston said that, “Snider will rotate between left and right field and will receive some playing time as the club's designated hitter.” So it looks like he should be getting some regular playing time. I am not ready to anoint this kid yet, but he could produce some solid numbers this month.

He was hitting .344 with two home runs and 17 RBI in 64 at-bats for AAA Syracuse before the promotion. He has high strikeout totals so beware that his batting average is likely to suffer, but it may be worth a gamble.

Brandon Wood, SS/3B—LAA Wood was recalled just before September, but only because of injuries. With the likes of Izturis, Kendrick, and now Aybar out of the lineup, Wood should see some solid playing time at both shortstop and third base during September. The question will be if he can finally transfer his potential to the big leagues.

He has a career .162 batting average, with only two home runs in 111 at-bats. That should not last this time, as he was on a hot streak during the second half of the season leading up to this promotion. Wood was 3-for-4 in Sunday afternoon’s game.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 20 ELIGIBLE A.L. STARTING PITCHERS

1. Roy Halladay, TOR
2. Cliff Lee, CLE
3. John Lackey, LAA
4. Ervin Santana, LAA
5. Josh Beckett, BOS—DL
6. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
7. Scott Kazmir, TB
8. Felix Hernandez, SEA
9. Justin Duchscherer, OAK—DL
10. Francisco Liriano, MIN
11. James Shields, TB
12. Mike Mussina, NYY
13. A.J. Burnett, TOR
14. John Danks, CHW
15. Jon Lester, BOS
16. Javier Vazquez, CHW
17. Justin Verlander, DET
18. Matt Garza, TB
19. Kevin Slowey, MIN
20. Joe Saunders, LAA

For the National League and more news and history from MLB, visit SEAMHEADS.com

Wahoo Weekly Report: Aug. 15

Michael Taylor — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 05:31:32 -0400

Actual Record: 54-66, Fourth Place – 14.0 Games Back

Weekly Gain/Loss in division: No gain or loss in standings with a 5-2 record

Pythagorean Record: 60-60, Fourth Place – 8.0 Games Back

What’s Happening

- Yeah rehab! After sitting for what seems like the majority of the season, both Josh Barfield and Victor Martinez are being sent out on rehab assignments. Barfield started his assignment last night in Akron at second base, where he went 0-2, while Victor will begin his tonight with Akron as a DH.

Wedge has stated that when Martinez does return, he will rotate between catcher, first base, and DH.

- On another injury note, Travis Hafner ran the bases before Wednesday night’s game and then took regular batting practice with the team on Thursday. He even hit a ball into “Pronkville”, in the second deck in right field during his batting session. As with Martinez and Barfield, Hafner’s goal is to return by the end of the month.

- Asdrubal Cabrera is finally showing that same promise that we witnessed late last season and into the playoffs. After hitting just .184 before his demotion, Cabrera has hit .296 with three home runs and eight RBI. His OPS has jumped from .544 to .644 in just 24 games.

- Who would have thought that halfway into August Jhonny Peralta would be the Indians' leader in batting average at .276? You can look at it two ways. This team has been that bad offensively, or Jhonny has made a big stride this season in his development. I see a little bit of both.

Granted, Casey Blake was the team leader before being traded, Victor has been injured, and Ben Francisco has yet to have enough bats to qualify, but you have to love the progress Jhonny has made at the plate and in the field (which goes unnoticed by many).

- Not that this is still news to anyone, but as projected in last week’s column (I know it wasn’t a bold prediction), Paul Byrd was traded this week to 2007 ALCS rival Boston Red Sox.

It was a great move for both organizations. The Indians saved about $2 million and will get either a very low-level prospect or cash, while the Red Sox get a veteran starter who has postseason experience.

The Red Sox need came when knuckleballer Tim Wakefield was placed on the disabled list, on top of Clay Buchholz’ continued struggles. For the Indians, they get the chance to watch more young talent in the rotation to see what they have for next season.

- Speaking of gauging talent for next season, Zach Jackson, of the CC Sabathia trade, made his Tribe debut last night. He went five innings giving up three runs on eight hits.

It should have been much better than that, as the Indians' defense handed the Orioles all three runs that they scored off of Jackson. The worst of the mistakes was a missed double play in the first inning, when Garko failed to step on first and throw to second base to double up the runner, which then led to Jhonny Peralta not getting a quick release off back to Garko to get the runner at first.

Instead of two out and nobody on, the Orioles were given a free out that then led to runs when Cabrera misplayed a ball at second, which would have been the third out of the inning. With that said, it was still a positive start for the 25-year-old left-hander.

- Indians pitchers did not record a single strikeout during Wednesday night’s game. It was the first time since Apr. 28, 2004 against the White Sox that it had happened.

- The Indians actually had a winning streak this week of five games. The sad part is that it was only the second five-game winning streak of the season. The first was back during Apr. 22-26, when the Indians took three straight from the Royals and the first two in a series against the Yankees.

- The Indians new Spring Training facility will open on time. Rumors were abound that construction of the facility was lagging behind schedule, and that the Indians might not have been able to use the facility next season, but Goodyear and Arizona's city manager John Fischbach reaffirmed that things will be ready come February. After a season to themselves, the Cincinnati Reds will join the Indians in their new facility.

What to Look For

- Will Jhonny Peralta’s hand injury hurt his hot streak?

Peralta was hit by the chronically wild Daniel Carera with a pitch during Thursday night's game. X-rays came back negative, and the injury is listed as a contusion, so it is nothing to really worry about, but with the way Peralta was swinging the bat, you wonder if the day or two off that lets the hand heal will mess with his timing and send him into a slump.

- A big week from Grady Sizemore

Hitting just .247 and slugging nearly 90 points lower since the All-Star break, Grady is due for a turnaround any time now. The cynic would believe the Home Run Derby jinx has caused Sizemore to struggle, but being the optimist I am, I see Sizemore on the verge of another hot streak.

He had doubles on back-to-back nights against the Orioles, and is walking more than he strikes out over his past five games. Both are positive signs.

The upcoming schedule says that Grady will face four starting pitchers in Jered Weaver, Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies, and Gil Meche with whom he has homered against in his career. In particular, Grady always kills Royals pitching. His career OPS against the Royals is .988, best against any other team. He also has a career .900 OPS against the Angels, his fifth-best mark against AL teams.

- Lee goes for number 17 and Carmona looks to rebound on national television

In what figures to be a tough matchup this weekend, when the AL-West-leading Angels visit Progressive Field, the Indians will be sending out two of their best, Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona, into battle.

Lee will be squaring off against Jered Weaver, whom the Indians have had success against. Weaver is a career 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA against the Tribe. Lee is looking for his 17th victory, which would tie Brandon Webb for the major-league lead.

On Saturday, Fausto Carmona will look to rebound from another poor start as he makes his fifth start back from his hip injury. He has drawn a very tough matchup against Angels ace John Lackey, who is 2-2 with a microscopic 0.99 ERA in fours starts at Progressive Field.

This game will be on FOX at 3:55 PM, which bodes well for Carmona, who is a career 11-4 with a 2.75 ERA in day games.

- Masa Kobayashi decreased appearances

Tribe management seems to feel that Kobayashi is experiencing some burnout. He is at 50.2 innings pitched, after throwing 47.1 last season, during which he had a few small injuries.

Kobayashi has not thrown more than 58 innings in any season since 2000, when he threw 109.2 innings as a long reliever/starter. With this said, look for him to work the sixth and seventh innings and in less pressure situations. He did throw a scoreless inning last night however.

- Instant Replay

Major League Baseball, in hindsight of some missed home run calls, has stated that a plan is in motion to implement instant replay for major-league games by the end of this month. The details of how it will work have yet to be announced.

Down on the Farm

Too bad we here in the United State can’t watch them unless you reverse sleep patterns, but some Tribe farmhands are participating in the Olympic tournament. Akron outfielder Matt LaPorta and Buffalo closer Jeff Stevens are playing on Team USA, while Akron pitcher Tim Burton and Kinston outfielder Nick Weglarz are on Team Canada.

In game one of the tournament for Team USA, Jeff Stevens blew a save and took the loss against South Korea, giving up two runs in the bottom of the ninth. Matt LaPorta, on the other hand, is only one for nine in two games, but that one hit counted big. He hit a three-run home run against the Netherlands in a 7-0 victory Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, for the Canadians, Burton appeared in game one in relief, giving up one hit while striking out one batter for his third of an inning. And the story of the Olympics thus far, as far as the Indians are concerned, is Nick Weglarz.

The on-base machine is five for seven in two games, including a four-for-four game in which he had two home runs, three RBI, and scored three runs in a loss against the Cubans.

The deadline to sign draft picks is today, and the Indians have inked all but one of their top-15 picks of 2008. And the one who is yet to sign, second-round pitcher Curtis Haley, is rumored to be signing today. There was quite a flurry of signing over the past couple of days, as the Indians inked six players. Maybe some of that Paul Byrd money that was saved went into these dealings.

In other news, pay attention to pitching prospect Scott Lewis. He is on the Indians' 40-man roster and was just promoted to AAA Buffalo in place of Zach Jackson's spot in the rotation. Lewis is an Ohio State Alum that the Indians drafted in the third round back in 2004. He was 6-2 with a 2.33 ERA in 13 starts with Akron.

He is not an overpowering guy, but he utilizes great control (nine walks to 61 strikeouts) to get outs, a la Cliff Lee. If he has a couple of solid outings in Buffalo, look for him to get the call to Cleveland, come September, to get some innings.

He had a late start to the season due to a strained lat muscle in Spring Training that sidelined him two months. The Indians would like him to get at least 40 more innings by the end of the season.

Must Read of the Week
"Trying to Make Sense with Dollars" by Paul Cousineau

A great article detailing the Indians' projected budget for next season. Cousineau suggests that, with the current players who figure to be on the 2009 opening-day roster, the Indians will have $61 million dollars spent before the free-agency period begins.

Then, he states, assuming that the Indians maintain their $80 million budget, they have roughly $19 million to spend on needs.

There really isn’t anything to disagree with in this article. Cousineau lays it all out on the table in an easy manner to understand. It was really refreshing to understand where the Indians will stand going into free agency.

Obviously, things can change, players could get traded, creating different scenarios, but with the assumed allotment of money, the Indians should be able to find one solid free agent pickup and a couple usual borderline guys with an upside to help out.

Quotes of the Week

Zach Jackson, when asked about being promoted: "I'm just excited and really thankful for the opportunity…It's go time."

That a boy! He bored me with the first part of the quote, but the ending brings some personality to the table. I like the confidence, go-time indeed.

Manager Eric Wedge on Jeremy Guthrie’s time in Cleveland: "We did the best we could with it in regard to opportunity...With our timetable, with what we were trying to do up here, how we were trying to compete, we weren't able to make it work."

I can see where he was coming from with this quote. As the season started in 2006, the Indians were poised for a pennant chase, with Sabathia, Lee, Westbrook, Byrd, and what turned out to be the weak link, Jason Johnson.

At the time, Johnson looked to be a solid fifth-starter option, who had a 4.54 ERA the season before.

As the season blew up in their face, just as this season, the Indians turned to a youngster, Jeremy Sowers, halfway through the season. He looked like one of the league's best that second half of the season. Guthrie, in hindsight, should have worked in for Johnson at some point, but the timing never worked.

Though, at the same time, the Indians never did show Guthrie much confidence in his ability and let him start a consistent stretch for the big club.

Tribe Talk: Is Rafael Perez the Indians' Next Closer?

Michael Taylor — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 14:09:59 -0400

Welcome to Tribe Talk, a season-long look at the trials and tribulations of the Cleveland Indians from the views of the loyal Tribe fans here on Bleacher Report.

I would like to thank my fellow Indians community leader, Nino Colla, and also David Wiley for pitching in their takes.

This discussion is not just meant for the included Indians fans. Please feel free to comment on any of the questions or any of our answers below.

The hot topic of debate in the world of Indians baseball over the past week has been the disaster of the bullpen, specifically at the closer position. In discussion this week is whether or not Rafael Perez should be utilized as the teams closer now and into 2009. Also, for fun, we discuss some of our favorite Indians closer's of all-time.

Without further ado, let's talk Tribe!

SWEEP! In a rare occurrence, the Indians took a full series from an opponent this past weekend, and if not for the bullpen meltdown Wednesday afternoon, the Indians could have won five of six games last week. Any ideas on why the Indians have been playing better of late?

Nino Colla: SWEEP! Maybe they are finally starting to put it together. Shoppach and Peralta are hitting well. Cabrera and Marte are performing decently at the bottom of the lineup. Garko seems to have righted himself these past two games. Grady is doing his thing. The pitching is firing on all cylinders as usual.

But hey, that bullpen, or should I say, Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis, didn't screw around. They were sort of clicking the way we thought they could. Just think of getting out of the cellar when Victor and Travis get back soon.

Michael Taylor: A little bit of great starting pitching, a lot of Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis, and even more of Jhonny Peralta and Kelly Shoppach. Mix it all together, and you have what, for at least a week, was success against a couple of quality teams.

I surely don't expect that success to continue the rest of the season, but the team is showing signs of improving, as players such as Sizemore, Peralta, Perez, Shoppach, and others continue to improve.

David Wiley: Well, Rafael Perez has been a huge part of the success of the Tribe lately. You can almost write zeros in the books for two innings in each game he shows up in.

That is a comfort zone the Indians haven't seen the likes of much this season. I think it makes the whole team relax a bit knowing the game isn't on the line until it's over.

Additionally, the hitting has been better, not great, but better. Jhonny Peralta is knocking the cover off the ball. Even David Dellucci has been hitting. Some of the hitting is happening with runners in scoring position, which helps—again, Jhonny Peralta, to name names.

Anthony Reyes has paid immediate dividends with his first victory in an Indians uniform in his first start on Friday night. What are your first impressions of Reyes?

Nino Colla: I love anyone who throws strikes. Reyes does that. His fastball was a little down from what I was expecting, but I'm sure that isn't an issue. He throws strikes, he works the zone, and he mixes his pitches in well.

He has to do it more and keep the ball down, but I'm expecting him to only get better.

Let's not forget the talent this pitcher possessed coming into pro-ball from USC. He has it; it's just about harnessing it with a team that he respects. It sounds like he had a rough time in St. Louis and he just didn't mesh with the way Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan ran their club. That's fine; their loss is Cleveland's gain.

Michael Taylor: It was only one start, and it is hard to project much from that, but he did throw strikes. I like that quality a lot. Assuming he can continue to throw strikes at any rate similar to that, I believe that he can be a successful pitcher in the major leagues. He has to be. 90-mile-per-hour fastballs don't overpower anybody.

I see Reyes as high as a No. 3-type of starter, along the lines of a Westbrook. If the Indians can get that from Reyes, I will be happy.

The other impression that I had was of the ghost of Jaret Wright Past on the mound. I noticed it like two innings before Matty Underwood mentioned it on the broadcast. With the No. 27 on his back, a similar build and motion, I thought that I warped back 10 years. Let's hope that he does not do a Jaret Wright and have his career fizzle away.

David Wiley: It is something the Indians needed desperately after trying everything but the kitchen sink in the five hole. Reyes will probably take Paul Byrd's slot next year is my guess. One start does not earn you a spot in the rotation, but it's a good start.

Reyes has a shot at re-inventing himself with no baggage in Cleveland. He's a solid to better-than-solid arm. I think he makes the most of his opportunity here and emerges as a No. 3 or No. 4 behind Lee, Carmona, and possibly Laffey. I don't see the Indians going after a pitcher in free agency other than bullpen help.

In a weekly ritual of late, here is a question regarding the walking wounded. Travis Hafner just had his injured shoulder tested out to be at 75 percent strength. He is also hitting some soft-toss in hopes of making it back this season. Do you think that he will return and if he does, what are your expectations?

Nino Colla: I'm going to go out a limb and say we see him before the end of August. Yep, he'll be rehabbed and ready to go by the time September rolls around.

I've read every single report on him since the injury and it has only improved. All this "He is out for the season" thing couldn't be further from the truth. The latest reports say Hafner couldn't be far behind from Barfield and Martinez rehabbing, and if Pronk takes regular BP this week, that is a very good sign. Taking BP is usually the last hoop a player has to jump through before he is able to go and rehab.

As for expectations. I just want to see him healthy and not go into 2009 on the note he is now. The last action was months ago, and if he goes the rest of the year without even seeing live game action, that might just set him back more in 2009.

I hope he at least gets his feet wet, gets some confidence back in his shoulder being healthy, and go from there.

Michael Taylor: The more I read into this, the more I believe that he is coming back and should come back. Why not? I don't think that he will be back into the lineup on a consistent basis upon returning, to protect him, but if his shoulder does get into strong enough shape to compete, let him hit and gain confidence as he enters 2009.

If he was hitting with no strength in his shoulder earlier in the season, there should be no way that he continues to hit that poorly with a near to full strength shoulder.

This team needs to know that Hafner can be counted on in 2009 and not enter the season as a question mark as he would be right now.

David Wiley: I say shut him down for the rest of the year. No need to bring him back. The Indians have a huge investment in him being their first base/DH for a few years to come. Let him heal fully.

He hasn't been the same since the big contract signing. The Indians are only playing for pride and jobs next year.

Hafner's job is not in jeopardy, so let him rest. The money commitment in MLB guarantees him he'll be around no matter what. Let's see what a well-rested 100 percent rejuvenated Hafner has for us.

Malley's chocolate company is really rooting for a re-invented Hafner so the Pronk candy bar rises back to its former glory as well. It's tough for the average fan to commit to a confectionery delight named after a guy hitting subpar in a multitude of years.

Let's save both Pronk, and the bar for next year, and hope Hafner makes us all fat during the candy-bar renew.

Player Debate of the Week: Rafael Perez

The most consistent pitcher this season in the Indians bullpen has been Rafael Perez. Of late, he has returned to his lights-out dominant form of 2007. With nobody else (except for the recent surge of Jensen Lewis) getting outs in the bullpen, what role do you put Perez in for the remainder of this season. Do you see him as a potential closer in 2009?

Nino Colla: seventh, eighth, ninth-inning man. No, seriously, just throw him out for the three-inning save. I see him as a potential closer, but his arm is so durable, and he's so effective against both left and right-handers, I think Eric Wedge wants him as a guy he can go to in the seventh and eighth innings, someone he can use like Lou Piniella uses Carlos Marmol.

With that said, he has closer potential, but his value could be so much more, if, in fact, the Tribe can find someone else to close games. I think that is the reason they've been using this revolving door of relievers to test out instead of giving Perez the job outright.

Michael Taylor: I want to advocate Perez for closing duties, but find myself torn because of his flexibility on the mound. He can get both righties and lefties out with his great slider, can go two innings, and right now is more important to the team in the seventh and eighth innings than he is as a closer.

The Indians need to get into the ninth inning to even have a chance to close. If he was only utilized there, I do not like the thought of him not being used enough because he is the "closer."

David Wiley: I doubt it. Wedge already came out and said as much. Using a lefty as a closer puts bullpens in a tough position, unless they are stacked with lefties, and that ain't the norm.

Personally, I don't think that should be held against him or anyone. If you are lights out, you get the closer position, then worry about the position vacated.

You don't leave someone on fries at McDonalds just because you always have fries. You should always encourage and promote people based on performance, lefty or not.

That being said, I'm hoping Jensen Lewis gets his shot at closer the rest of the year. He has the moxie for it.

Fun Question of the Week: Since the bullpen has been such a hot topic of the week, who is your all-time favorite Indians closer?

Nino Colla: I named him to my Me-Team because I truly hated watching Joe Borowski pitch. I like Joe and all, but how anyone can't say Bob Wickman is beyond me. Sure, he was just as shaky as Jumpin' Joe, but he's so big and rosy cheeked, you can't help but love the Wick.

The Wick is Lit! You can't hate Bob Wickman, even if he is the closest thing to Borowski without being Borowski.

Bob actually made it a bit more fun to watch. He'd walk a guy and let him steal second and third, then promptly strike out the side. Or he'd load the bases with one out and get a double play. Stuff like that.

I remember when David Ortiz stole a base off Bob Wickman. He's like the little kid in the back yard that has a stick in front of a vicious dog. He's poking him and poking him, but not getting close enough for the dog to touch him.

Then, just as the dog is about to snatch the kid's hand off, he pulls it away. That or his mom yells at him. I doubt Wicky's mom was yelling at him to stop screwing around on the mound, though.

Michael Taylor: May he rest in peace, but Steve Olin and that sidearm delivery was my favorite closer. He was not an overpowering guy, as he utilized his arm angle to be deceptive, but he did a solid job for some bad Indians teams of the early '90s. And as an 11-year-old, I just loved that side-arm pitching style and had to try it myself.

A couple of other favorites were Doug Jones in the late '80s, and Bob Wickman.

And fictionally, you gotta love the "Wild Thing" Ricky Vaughn!

David Wiley: This one is easy. Jose Mesa. I was there when he broke the single-season mark. That year, he was unbelievable. Really, he's the only Indians closer that I can recollect being a certain win as he entered the game. Yes, I know he lost us the World Series, but in my opinion, it wasn't his fault.

He struggled that entire series. Brian Anderson was on fire throughout the World Series, pitched a fantastic eighth inning in that seventh and deciding game, and Mike Hargrove should have sent him back out in the ninth.

Hargrove's downfall was the fact he didn't read the nuances of "hot and not", and Jose Mesa was destined to fail on that day since he was a "not hot".

Sorry, but he was. He should not have been there. He was not the dominant closer after that. For one season though, Jose Mesa was incredible.

I would love to see the Indians make the closer a priority for 2009. Find out what you have in Lewis and Perez, make a decision, or really hit the market for someone.

Roto Chronicles: American League, August 11

Michael Taylor — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 14:31:02 -0400

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

Mike Aviles, SS—KC (UP) All the man continues to do is hit. Since his call-up from AAA in late May, Aviles has hit .335 with seven home runs, 31 RBI, 37 runs scored, and four stolen bases in 58 games. With this production over a full season of play, Aviles would be on pace to be the best offensive shortstop in the American League. That surely is premature to even think, as he has just over two months of major league experience in his pocket and a rather high .381 BABIP. Though, if you picked him up during this incredible stretch of play, enjoy the ride. He won’t hit .341 the rest of the way, but a near .300 batting average is feasible.

Torii Hunter, OF—LAA (UP) Consistency is a valuable trait in a player, it makes it easier to predict what type of season that a player will enjoy. Just as James Shields was in the pitcher category a few weeks back, Hunter is consistent for the hitters. After hitting .287 with 28 homers and 107 RBI last season, Hunter is again hitting .285 and is on pace for 27 home runs and 91 RBI. Though, with the way that the Angels offense has clicked as of late, the RBI total may creep up towards that 100 RBI mark once again. Especially now that Hunter is in a hot streak. Since the All-Star break, Hunter has hit .362 with seven home runs and 22 RBI in 18 games.

Carlos Quentin, OF—CHW (UP) Just as Mike Aviles keeps hitting, Carlos Quentin keeps amazing. The White Sox slugger has yet to suffer through any sort of extended slump and now has hit a total of 32 home runs and 90 RBI with a .286 batting average. His monthly OPS’s are 1.052, .899, .849, .953, 1.114 and Quentin has hit at least five runs in every month so far this season. He has been a model of consistency all season long, and even hits just as well away from U.S. Cellular Field as he does in his favorable home park. I certainly don't see Quentin going away any time soon.

Adrian Beltre, 3B—SEA (DOWN) For whatever reason Adrian Beltre continues to disappoint with his batting average. Since May 1, Beltre has hit a poor .238, including a recent .195 average in August. The culprit is a low .263 BABIP, his lowest since 2005 when it was .256 (he hit .240 that season). With a solid 21 percent line drive rate and a career .295 BABIP you should expect his batting average to improve, yet he has done this before. He has however continued to hit for decent power, 19 home runs at his usual 13 percent HR/FB rate, and has posted his best eye ratio (0.59 BB/K) since his monster 2004 season in Los Angeles. In the end it may just be another .250 season for Beltre, but that power does continue to make up for some of it.

Marcus Thames, OF—DET (DOWN) After a historic month of June, Thames has come crashing back down in a hurry. Since Jul. 1, Thames has hit .176 with 33 strikeouts in 85 at-bats. Though his power has remained, hitting six home runs during this slump. Thames is the classic slugger, big power and big strikeouts that will limit his batting average upside. Right now Thames has a 30 percent strikeout rate for the season to go with a poor .245 BABIP. His career BABIP is only .263, so there really doesn’t look to be a huge upside in average. If Thames should start to hit, grab him as cheap power until he fizzles back out, but that will have to wait as he has a sore shoulder that has him listed as day-to-day.

Michael Young, SS—TEX (DOWN) The ever-steady Michael Young is in a tough slump. He usually is great at putting the ball in play, but since the All-Star break, Young has struck out 23 times in just 87 at-bats, or 26.4 percent of at-bats. He usually ranges around 13-16 percent. With this, it is no wonder that he is hitting .218 during his slump. He is also trying to play through a fractured index finger injury, which has to be effecting his play. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up on the disabled list at some point after aggravating it on Saturday.

Pitchers

A.J. Burnett, SP—TOR (UP) One month ago in the July 7th column, I mentioned that A.J. Burnett was a buy candidate when he had an 8-8 record and 4.92 ERA. Well, since that date Burnett is 6-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 44.1 innings. He has also kept his walks to a reasonable amount, just 3.05 per nine innings over this streak. He may not give the most dominant performance night in and night out, but a pitcher who gets 50 percent ground balls while striking out over a batter an inning is a valuable piece to any team. Expect more of the same the rest of the way.

Paul Byrd, SP—CLE (UP) Paul Byrd has been on fire. Over his past five starts spanning 35 innings of work, Byrd is 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA. His strikeouts remain non-existent, that is not a part of his game, but Byrd has cut back on hits allowed- especially the home run. He remains the league leader in home runs allowed with 23, even though he has now gone five starts without giving one up. With that said, don’t buy into this hot streak. Sooner or later that 85-mile an hour fastball will get squared up by an opponent, so I’d steer clear from Byrd. He has struck out less people, walked more batters, and allowed significantly more home runs per fly ball this season. Going forward expect nothing more than a 4.50 ERA at best.

J.J. Putz, CL—SEA (UP) Putz is back as the Seattle closer just three weeks in from his latest return from the disabled list. Since his return Jul. 20, Putz has thrown 11.2 innings with an ERA of 2.31, 13 strikeouts and six walks. He also has allowed 13 base hits to give a total of 19 base runners in 11.2 innings. This is enough to certainly curb enthusiasm to think that he is completely back into the dominant pitcher of the past two seasons. Irregardless, Putz will get his share of saves the rest of the way. The seven strikeouts over his past three appearances is a good start.

Fausto Carmona, SP—CLE (DOWN) The lack of command that Carmona exhibited before his hip injury in May continues to haunt him. In three starts since returning to the Indians rotation, Carmona has allowed nine walks in 12.2 innings, and has allowed 47 in 70.1 innings on the season. The worst part about that is that he only has 31 strikeouts to his name this season against those 47 walks. It is tough to remain competitive when that ratio is so poor, even if you are an extreme ground ball pitcher. For the season, Carmona is 5-4 with a 4.46 ERA, nowhere near his Cy Young-caliber performance of a season ago.

Sean Gallagher, SP—Oak (DOWN) After coming into the Athletics rotation with a great opportunity to throw some innings and showcase his stuff, Gallagher had a couple of solid starts against New York and Los Angeles before feeling a “pop” in his shoulder in a start against Texas on Jul. 25. He continued to pitch through the soreness that ensued. Then struggled through his last three outings giving up 12 walks, 18 hits, and 13 runs in 13.1 innings before getting shut down. He missed his turn in the rotation Saturday, and is tentatively scheduled to make his next start this Thursday against the Rays. I’d wait for some positive results before adding again.

Huston Street, CL—OAK (DOWN) Street has hit a rough patch, and may end up losing the job as closer in Oakland. Since Jul. 12, Street has blown three save chances, and has been tagged with two losses. And really you can go back further into June when Street began his struggles. Since Jun. 1, Street has a 5.34 ERA and only six saves to four blown saves. The main issue with Street this season is a dramatic difference in his K/BB ratio. The past two seasons Street had a ratio of over five, but to date this season, his ratio is 2.61. That is not bad, but as compared to his recent history it is. Also, a continued increase in home runs allowed will always hurt any pitcher, especially a closer. Street is currently giving up over one home run per nine innings. Definitely downgrade the expectations of Street, but don’t completely discount him just yet. It may just be a rough stretch.

INJURY REPORT

Baltimore's Adam Jones is out at least four weeks with a fracture in his right foot. He will receive another exam in two weeks to monitor progress before going ahead with any recovery plans for this season. It is possible that his season may be over.

The Red Sox will be without one of their top starters for a few weeks as Tim Wakefield was placed on the 15-day disabled list with stiffness in his right shoulder. This might clear the way for Bartolo Colon to return to the rotation in the near future.

Colon pitched three scoreless innings in a start on Sunday afternoon as he works on stretching his arm out.

The Joba Chamberlain scare may not be as bad as first thought. The idea of problems in the rotator cuff send out warning signs, but Chamberlain says that he feels much better already as he has been cleared to begin throwing by the end of the week. His goal is to return by the end of August.

Evan Longoria sat out the weekend after being hit on the wrist with a pitch during Thursday nights game. The wrist was very sore making it hard for Longoria to swing without pain. He was just placed on the disabled list today and will miss a few weeks.

The Rays also put outfielder Carl Crawford on the disabled list after feeling a "pop" in his right middle finger during an at-bat Saturday night. Depending on the results of an examination, Crawford could be out two weeks, or the remainder of the season. Stash him on the disabled list until the results are determined.

Toronto is beginning to welcome back a pair of outfielders. Vernon Wells was activated for Sunday's game against the Indians after his recovery from a strained hamstring. He went 0-4 stranding four runners.

Also, Shannon Stewart continues his rehab from a high ankle sprain. He is now with AAA Syracuse and is 6-26 with seven walks and four RBI over three levels of competition.

The Blue Jays also announced that third baseman Scott Rolen has been placed on the disabled list to rest his injured shoulder. He is said to be out two to three weeks. Joe Inglett will pick up the extra playing time.

The return of Joe Crede continues to be rumored even though he continues to miss rehab starts. Crede received an injection to alleviate the pain, but has yet to play a game since Aug. 1. Though, he is said to be ready for a return this week. Stay tuned.

Jose Contreras’ return to the White Sox rotation lasted just 1.2 innings. He ruptured his Achilles tendon and will miss the rest of this season, and likely a large portion of next season. This injury is said to take between 9-12 months to properly heal. Not sure where the White Sox will go for a fifth starter, but in the meantime Jack Egbert or Lance Broadway may get a call.

It may be too late for the Indians, but the middle of their lineup will get better by the end of 2008. Victor Martinez could begin a rehab assignment by the weekend with the hopes of slowly working into the lineup and then eventually some catching duties. He will start as a DH upon activation.

Also, Travis Hafner's shoulder was tested at 75 percent last week and he is now beginning to hit soft toss. He is hoping for a return before the end of the season.

Carlos Guillen exited Friday night’s game with back spasms and is listed as day-to-day. This is worth keeping an eye on, but he will be back in the lineup likely tonight.

The Twins received good news from the hand specialist that met with Alexi Casilla. It was determined that Casilla could resume activities after another week in a splint.

From there he will begin workouts and if all goes well return to the lineup at a yet to be determined date. Though, Casilla admits that hitting left-handed is too painful. This may limit his ability to play everyday upon returning.

Michael Cuddyer was soon to be activated from the disabled list, but an injury of another sorts has likely ended his season. During a rehab assignment on Friday night, Cuddyer was hit in the ankle by a line drive, breaking his ankle. What bad luck that was. The injury will take four to six weeks to heal placing him right at the end of the season.

You can officially rule out Eric Chavez from any playing time this season. Not that this should have come as a surprise with his string of injuries, but he did go through with the shoulder surgery and is out for the remainder of 2008.

I wouldn’t even put much stock into him again next season as he is saying that he wants to move across the diamond to first base. His fantasy value surely would be even lower there.

Still with no timetable for a return start, Erik Bedard has made progress in his rehab as manager Jim Riggleman says that he has noticed a big change in Bedard’s pitches over the past couple of weeks. He’ll continue a throwing program and possibly throw from the mound starting this week.

The Rangers are having a very tough time with injuries of late, this time with David Murphy and closer C.J. Wilson. Murphy who was slumping away his shot at Rookie of the Year, sprained his knee and will miss two to four weeks.

Also, a slumping C.J. Wilson was sidelined with bone chips in his shoulder. It has yet to be determined if he will try and pitch through the pain or go ahead and go under the knife and end his season.

On a positive note for the Rangers, Kevin Milwood’s groin has healed up and he will be activated this week, but I wouldn't recommend playing him.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

Jed Lowrie, SS—BOS I wouldn’t go make Lowrie your starting shortstop on your team this season, but as a backup or in a middle infielder role, Lowrie could give your squad a little boost. He does not project to be a home run hitter or have a history of stealing bases, but he does have a history of being a good hitter with some gap power. A 22.5 percent line drive rate and a nine percent walk rate bode well for his ability to get on base. He is currently hitting .279 with one home run and 22 RBI in 111 at-bats. And although Julio Lugo should return by the end of the season, I wouldn’t rule out Lowrie continuing to play as Jacoby Ellsbury did late last season.

Marlon Byrd, OF—TEX Very quietly, Marlon Byrd is having a good season. In roughly a half of a season worth of plate appearances, Byrd is hitting .286 with eight home runs, 45 runs scored, 31 RBI, and four stolen bases. Good numbers, but since the All-Star break he has been great. Byrd is hitting .377 with four home runs with 16 RBI and an OPS of 1.036. Byrd has an 11 percent HR/FB rate, which shows that he does have some power, and he has more than doubled his K/BB ratio to 0.79 this season. The only disconcerting characteristic of Byrd is that he hits so many ground balls that limit his power potential. Though, with a full-time job in the place of the injured David Murphy, you could do a lot worse than Marlon Byrd in your outfield rotation.

Phil Hughes, SP—NYY Just as was suggested with Francisco Liriano weeks back, it is now time to add and stash the talented Hughes for his upcoming activation from the disabled list. He currently is in AAA Scranton extending his arm out to throw more pitches before the Yankees recall him into the rotation. Thus far in three minor league starts split between A and AAA, Hughes has thrown 11.1 innings allowing just one run on six hits while striking out eight. He is slated to start Thursday against Pawtucket where he will be limited to 85 pitches. There is a chance that Hughes could be back near the end of August.

Rafael Perez, RP—CLE Well, in the mess that is the Indians bullpen, one name is coming out on top, Rafael Perez. Over his past 21 appearances dating back to June 20, Perez has a 2.00 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 30 strikeouts, and five walks in 27 innings. He also has converted two save opportunities during this stretch. While he is likely not to become the full-time closer as the Indians need somebody to get outs before the ninth inning too, his opportunities should rise and potentially give a half of dozen saves by the end of the season while giving excellent ratios to help your pitching stats.

FUTURES MARKET

It may not be much longer until David Price makes his impact on major league hitters. The big left-hander continues to dominate minor league hitters to the tune of an 11-0 record in 15 starts, with a 1.87 ERA, .206 batting average against, more than 50 percent ground balls, and a four to one K/BB ratio. He was just promoted to AAA and might get a call come September for a playoff push with Tampa.

The recently acquired catcher by the Indians from the Dodgers is having a terrific season. Carlos Santana just recently crossed the 100 RBI plateau to go along with 16 home runs and a .331 batting average. It doesn’t look like the move from the California to the Carolina League is going to slow him down. Santana is hitting .388 since the move.

Tampa Bay’s shortstop of the future, Reid Brignac, is having a tough season in Durham. A high 26 percent strikeout rate is limiting his potential. Brignac is hitting just .250 with nine home runs on the season, and is hitting just .188 since the AAA All-Star break with 24 strikeouts in 69 at-bats. It looks like Jason Bartlett’s job is safe at least through the end of 2008.

The Royals 2007 first-round pick, Mike Moustakas has warmed up as the summer has gotten hotter. Hitting just .228 through 66 games in the low-A Midwest League, Moustakas has tore it up since, hitting .335 with a slugging percentage over .600, including 11 home runs in his last 39 games. For the season, Moustakas is hitting .268 with 20 home runs and 62 RBI. The future looks bright for this young slugger.

Pitchers who strikeout more than a batter per inning are certainly a commodity in fantasy, and one we should look for in the coming years is Baltimore right-hander Chris Tillman. He is currently in AA with Bowie as a 20-year-old.

He likely will again start there next season to get more seasoning as he is so young, but by 2010 we may begin seeing his talent in the big leagues. As with most power-arms, command will be key.

During his July slump, Tillman walked 16 batters in 21.2 innings. During his hot start through April through June, Tillman walked 38 in 79 innings. For the season, he is 7-4 with a 3.67 ERA and 124 strikeouts in 112.2 innings.

RANKING OF THE WEEK—TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL SHORTSTOPS

1. Michael Young, TEX
2. Jhonny Peralta, CLE
3. Carlos Guillen, DET
4. Derek Jeter, NYY
5. Mike Aviles, KC
6. Orlando Cabrera, CHW
7. Bobby Crosby, OAK
8. Edgar Renteria, DET
9. Jed Lowrie, BOS
10. Brendan Harris, MIN

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For the National League and more news and history from around Major League Baseball, visit SEAMHEADS.com

Wahoo Weekly Report: Aug. 8

Michael Taylor — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 02:31:32 -0400

Record Report:

Actual Record: 49-64, Last Place – 14.0 Games Back

Weekly Gain/Loss in division: Lost 1.0 games with a 2-4 record

Pythagorean Record: 56-57, Fourth Place – 7.0 Games Back

What’s Happening

Let’s start with some great news.

- Kelly Shoppach is in the Hall of Fame. Well sort-of. His bat from his historic five extra-base hit night was sent to Cooperstown for display.

- Jhonny Peralta had five hits in a game for the second time this season in Wednesday’s nightmarish loss to the Rays. He became the second Indian to accomplish this feat since Joe Carter in 1986.

This is pretty amazing when you think of the talent that has come through Cleveland over the past 15 years.

- It has been a rough second half of the season thus far for Ben Francisco. Hitting .294 at the break and showing promise, Francisco has struggled since, hitting .186. He has maintained the power in his bat with three home runs, but the strikeouts are killing him.

Francisco has struck out 10 times in his last 26 at-bats. Let’s hope this is just an anomaly and not a trend for this talented young hitter. Francisco is an important piece to the puzzle in 2009.

- While Francisco continues his first extended cold streak of the season, veteran David Dellucci has hit a hot streak. Dellucci hit .533 last week with two home runs, and is hitting .316 with a .553 slugging-percentage since the break.

As much as we gripe about him in the lineup, he does have some moments.

- Cliff Lee became the first pitcher in the majors to record his 15th win of the season when Lee beat the Rays on Monday. Lee continues to amaze everyone and is the leading candidate for the Indians' second-straight Cy young award.

Just for reference, last season, Sabathia didn’t win his 15th game until August 29, more than three weeks after Lee. CC Sabathia went on to win 19 games, can Lee get to 20?

- The anticipated Indians debut of Anthony Reyes is here. Reyes will take the mound tonight against the Blue Jays in his first start in a Tribe uniform.

Reyes is taking the place of injured starter Matt Ginter, who was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a strained forearm.

This move seemed a little too convenient to me, with the success that Reyes was enjoying in Buffalo. In two starts for Buffalo since being acquired in the Perdomo trade, Reyes was 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA.

But know that Reyes is 10-24 with a 5.38 ERA in 53 career major-league appearances. The Indians are hoping the change in scenery will allow Reyes to find himself and become the solid major-league starter that he was once destined to be.

- Remember 2006 and how bad that bullpen was? Well, the Indians have found a way to top that.

This bullpen was supposed to be a team strength, but with the most recent struggles of even more marginal arms, the bullpen finds themselves dead last in the major leagues, with a ridiculous 9-21 record and ERA of 5.25.

- One of the culprits, Rafael Betancourt, gave up his 10th and 11th home runs of the season Tuesday night in another traumatic Indians loss. It was the third time in his six-year career that Betancourt had allowed more than one home run in an appearance.

The last time was in Cincinnati on June 30, 2006. There seems to be no end in sight to Betancourt’s struggles this season.

- Oddly enough, the Indians record one year ago from today was 64-49, the exact opposite of this season’s 49-64 record. That surely tells the story on how much different this season has been from the magical run of 2007. A completely opposite story line.

What to Look For

- A promotion of Michael Aubrey or Jordan Brown

With the benching of Ryan Garko for not running out a grounder to first base (foul/fair, who cares when it was that close, run Ryan!), he seemingly has placed himself in Wedge’s doghouse.

This will likely end in decreased playing time, as Wedge has lost confidence in his first baseman. He is not a great defender, is not a great base runner, and if he is not hustling or hitting the ball, what is left?

Current backup first baseman and utility player Andy Gonzalez has no place on this team, in my estimation, and we should soon see a call to Buffalo. Brown is hitting .277 with five home runs and Aubrey is hitting .300 with six home runs.

Although, we could put Sal Fasano’s ‘stache at first...naahh.

- Return of Josh Barfield

Josh Barfield is set to return the Indians' roster very soon and may begin a rehab assignment as soon as this weekend. It is unclear if this “rehab assignment” would turn into the remainder of the month until rosters expand, but I wouldn’t rule out a chance that Barfield could return in a week or so.

The Indians need to see as much of Barfield as they can. Yet, with Garko’s issue, and a possible need of a first baseman, Barfield may have to wait.

- A Paul Byrd trade

It was reported on Let’s go Tribe, via ESPN’s Keith Law, that the possible Type-B free-agent designation of Paul Byrd may not happen.

As of the end of last season, Byrd was the final AL starting pitcher to receive this designation, which would net his team a supplemental draft pick should he leave via free agency.

Now, with the stiffening of pitching competition, as ERA’s drop league wide, Byrd’s designation is in serious jeopardy, and the Indians may not receive this supplemental pick, thus heightening the chances that a trade is very likely.

The Yankee’s have been the rumored suitor even before Joba Chamberlain went down with his arm injury.

- Increased closing opportunities for Rafael Perez

Need I say anymore than that Perez has a 1.77 ERA, 12 base-runners allowed, 20 strikeouts, and a 0.59 WHIP over his past 20.1 innings?

This man has earned a shot at closer, yet I’m not sure if he goes there.

He is the only valuable guy in the bullpen to get the important outs that may be needed earlier in the seventh and eighth innings, too. The Indians have to get to the ninth inning to even have a chance to use him as the closer. I’d be afraid he would waste away if he was used as the ninth-inning guy.

- Brendan Donnelly

Maybe Brendan Donnelly can bring some relief to the beleaguered bullpen. Signed as a free agent back in the spring, Donnelly has been recovering from Tommy John surgery and has just recently made it back into action in Buffalo on a rehab assignment.

He had a 2.50 ERA in six appearances with the Bisons and is the owner of a good 2.88 career ERA in six major league seasons with the Angels and Red Sox.

- Cy Young watch

On a side note from Indians players. The immediate competition to Cliff Lee’s run at the Cy Young will be facing the Tribe this weekend. Roy Halladay is a career 5-1 with a 3.97 ERA against the Indians, and is 4-0 with a 3.95 ERA in the Rogers Centre.

Also, current rostered Indians are career .188 hitters against Halladay, with zero home runs against him. Let’s hope that the Indians can get to him and help out Cliff.

The Indians did hand Halladay a 6-4 loss on May 9 in Cleveland.

Down on the Farm

Lonnie Chisenhall is settling in just fine with short-season Mahoning Valley. The Indians’ first-round draft pick is hitting .276 with four home runs and 31 RBI in 181 at-bats. The downside is that he is hitting just .212 against left-handed pitching. Chisenhall sat down for a chat with David Laurila from Baseball Prospectus.

Nick Weglarz of the K-Tribe continues to climb the prospect charts with his incredible on-base skills. Weglarz is reaching base at a .400 clip for the season and has some pop in the bat with 20 doubles, four triples, and 10 home runs. He is currently participating in the Olympics for Team Canada and is listed 58th on RotoWorld’s top-100 prospect list.

Aaron Laffey’s first start after his demotion wasn’t one to remember. Laffey was not bad, but he did allow four runs on seven hits in six innings to the Indianaplois Indians. Laffey will likely make a few more starts before a decision is to be made, unless the Indians deal Byrd.

Must Read of the Week

Misplaced Emphasis by Gary Benz of The Cleveland Fan

This is a truly interesting article detailing a statistical look into bullpens and their effectiveness on determining the outcome of games.

Amazingly, to my disbelief, Benz states that Indians are 46-2 when entering the ninth inning with the lead, and 44-4 when entering the eighth inning with the lead, both historical norms for a team. He states that this shows that the ineffective offense has been the main reason for the letdown this season and not the bullpen.

Though, when looking over the season's results to see if he was correct, I have found at least three ninth-inning leads blown without looking at every game, 4/14 against the Red Sox, 5/17 vs. Reds, and 8/6 vs. Rays.

What this also does not point out is the numerous times that the Indians' bullpen blew tie games going into the eighth and ninth innings, mainly by our friend Raffy-Right.

It really wouldn’t have mattered if the Indians had scored another run or two in many of these games. The fact remains that when the games was in the balance, the bullpen is 9-21 on the season, certainly a bad season regardless of offensive production.

But overall his point is taken; the Indians offense has made this a much more obvious sore.

Quotes of the Week

David Dellucci on his 100th career home run: "Growing up, I never thought I'd hit one home run, much less 100….It's a sign that you've played a lot of years in the big leagues, I guess."

I guess the amazing part of this is that a guy who has been virtually a career utility player has found his way onto teams for 13 years to reach this so-called feat.

Eric Wedge on the Indians bullpen: "Obviously, we have a lot to work out in our bullpen."

Thanks for the update Captain Obvious.

Tribe Talk: The Catcher/First-Base Dilemma

Michael Taylor — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 14:31:55 -0400

Welcome to Tribe Talk, a season-long look at the trials and tribulations of the Cleveland Indians from the views of the loyal Tribe fans here on Bleacher Report.

I would like to thank my fellow Indians community leader, Nino Colla, and this week’s participants: Samantha Bunten and Jeff Smirnoff for pitching in their takes.

This discussion is not just meant for the included Indians fans. Please feel free to comment on any of the questions or any of our answers below.

This week we highlight Kelly Shoppach's surge and what it will mean come 2009. Will he push Victor Martinez to first base? Find out our thoughts and take part in our discussion of the best Indians logo of all time.

Without further ado, let's talk Tribe!

Trevor Crowe came up this week in some discussions, as he is having an unbelievable run in AAA Buffalo after being promoted from Akron. When do you see Crowe being recalled, and how much playing time do you see him getting?

Samantha Bunten: I figure we'll see Crowe before too long, and I expect he'll play well when called up. Crowe has never had much trouble adjusting when he moved up a level in the minors. I'm sure there will be bumps in the road, but I think he'll adjust to major-league pitching quickly.

While I doubt Wedge and I will see eye to eye on this, I'd like to see him out there pretty regularly. Given what we have to work with now, I'm guessing he could be our best outfielder, aside from Sizemore.

Nino Colla: I see him as a September call-up, getting minimal playing time. I think it might be beneficial to him to go down and play in Akron if they make the playoffs. A lot more intense than playing with Morgan Ensberg and Tony Graffanino.

I do think he'll be up come September, where he goes from there is unknown. I think it will be a given we see him by the end of 2009 though.

Jeff Smirnoff: They should recall him at the conclusion of the AAA season, once the major-league rosters expand, unless for some reason it speeds up his free-agent window. 2008 should be used to evaluate everyone, no exceptions.

With Franklin Guiterrez showing nothing offensively and the league re-adjusting to Ben Francisco and Shin-Soo Choo, there is no harm in seeing what you have in Trevor Crowe. Throw him in there a couple times a week against pitchers that won't overwhelm him and see what the kid has.

Michael Taylor: I am all for Trevor Crowe making his big-league debut in September when rosters are expanded. Until then, continue getting work at AAA. This is the first time that he has been this advanced in the system, so let him settle in as the leadoff hitter there for the time being.

Until then, the Indians need to play Franklin Gutierrez and Shin-Soo Choo as much as possible in the outfield, in order to get a better read on their abilities and give them a chance to earn their way onto next season's roster.

Then, once September comes, promote Crowe and work him in a few days a week to get his first taste of the big leagues. He will then be in the running for a spot in the everyday outfield next spring.

Fausto Carmona has made two starts since being activated from the disabled list. The results have been mixed. What is your impression of his return to this point?

Samantha Bunten: I'm not worried about Carmona. He looked very shaky in his first game back, but very convincing in his second start. I don't think the rough outing he had is anything to be concerned about. He just looked like he needed to knock a little of the rust off. This team has a lot of major problems, but I don't think Carmona is one of them.

Nino Colla: I'm perfectly okay with what he's done. He's going to have the struggles for a bit, and he's working through them. I'm more concerned on what he's doing in game.

He's moving around well, he covered first without any problem after he realized he could do it without getting hurt. His pitches are looking good as well. I'm expecting him to get better every time out. I will say his last start was a bit on the defense.

Jeff Smirnoff: About what could be expected. He was out so long you had to expect the rust he showed in his first start off the DL. He got better in the next start, and the Indians need to see consistent improvement with each start going forward, as the season plays itself out.

With CC Sabathia gone, Jake Westbrook recovering from surgery, and Cliff Lee needing to show consistency on a year-to-year basis, he is the de facto No. 1 starter in 2009.

If Fausto gets better with each start, improves his control and regains that wicked sinker by year's end, it would be encouraging.

Michael Taylor: It's gone about as expected for me. I wasn't expecting the same dominant Carmona coming back from an injury, but if he can give the Indians some innings while throwing strikes, I'll be happy. The key will be consistency.

Josh Barfield is nearing a return to the Indians' roster. He is said to be about another week away. Should he play in Buffalo until September or be a utility second baseman?

Samantha Bunten: I would prefer Barfield play in Buffalo. With our season coming to an unfortunate early demise, I would prefer that Cabrera get the bulk of the playing time at second for the Tribe so that he can continue to improve.

Carroll has definitely earned the backup job, so I think he deserves to be the utility guy for the remainder of the season. Barfield is still pretty young—I'd let him finish the season in Buffalo and then compete for the second-base job next year.

Nino Colla: I just feel for the guy. He's got some bad luck this year. I'd keep him around to be honest. He needs to play in the majors and get the kinks out. Buffalo will do him no good. He may not play everyday, but he will play.

Eric Wedge said he wanted to give Jhonny Peralta more days off, and he can do that with Barfield around. Jamey Carroll might lose playing time, but he doesn't need much of it. He's a utility player and he'll be around next year.

Jeff Smirnoff: Send him on a rehab assignment until he is fully healthy, then bring him up and dump Andy Gonzalez, who serves no purpose. 2008 should be used for evaluation on everyone, and Barfield is no exception.

They need to find out if he is the 2006 Josh Barfield that helped San Diego make the playoffs, or the 2007 Josh Barfield that floundered in the AL.

I would like to see a week or so of Barfield at 2B and Asdrubal Cabrera at SS to see how good they could be defensively. If this team is going to be built around pitching, which it should, IMHO, then up-the-middle defense is paramount to success. See: Sizemore, Grady.

Michael Taylor: I am not sure when his options run out, I think it is next season, but if he has them, let him play in Buffalo until the rosters expand. The Indians need to utilize this current stretch of games to take a look at Asdrubal Cabrera at second base.

Cabrera has started snapping out of his slump of late, and the Indians need to let his confidence grow.

As for Barfield, let him get back on the field everyday and get himself ready for another shot in September at some playing time. He will likely split time with Cabrera then, with Cabrera getting the odd day at short to give Jhonny time as the DH or a day off.

Player Debate of the Week: Kelly Shoppach

Shoppach's hot streak begs the question: What do the Indians do next season at catcher? Should Shoppach continue to hit the ball well the remainder of the season, do you move Martinez to first base or keep both behind the plate, or maybe some other version of a platoon?

Samantha Bunten: I've been a huge fan of Shoppach for a long time, so I'm thrilled to see him behind the plate ever day. "Shop" has been on fire offensively, and I hope he keeps it up, but I think it's too early to put him in the same class of hitters as Martinez.

Defensively I don't think there is any question that "Shop" is the better catcher. Fortunately, we have a big gaping hole at first base, so I think the solution is an easy one: "Shop" stays behind the plate, and Martinez becomes our regular first baseman.

Nino Colla: Wait it out right now. It will work itself out one way or another. That's how this game works.

Ideally, I'd like to see Ryan Garko get himself on track and have a three-man rotation between first and catcher. Maybe Ryan Garko against left-handers at first. Kelly Shoppach starts at catcher against right-handers, Victor plays first. Victor can go behind the player against the lefties.

That might be too much platoon nonsense for everyone, but it could work in my mind, and it would decrease Victor's time behind the plate.

Jeff Smirnoff: First off, kudos to Kelly Shoppach for doing what Ryan Garko, Franklin Gutierrez, Andy Marte, Tom Mastny, Jensen Lewis, or a slew of other Indians have failed to do in 2008...actually prove they are a good player when given the opportunity to do so, either by trade or injury.

He—and maybe Jamey Carroll—is the only one that has done so in this train wreck of a season.

If he can return to being better defensively than he has been in 2008, I think you need to seriously think about giving him more PT, with Victor Martinez playing a little more 1B in the future.

Martinez has played the most games behind the plate in the last three years in MLB, other than Jorge Posada, and I think the wear and tear has caught up to him a little bit.

I know Martinez doesn't have the raw power of a typical 1B, but he will hit .300, drive in about 100 runs, and hit between 15-20 homers, and right now, that looks a lot better than anything Ryan Garko, Michael Aubrey, or Jordan Brown can offer.

I hate platoons, but right now, I do not see a better option than Shoppach and Martinez splitting time at catcher, with Martinez/Garko/Hafner doing a naughty little three-way with the 1B and DH spots.

Michael Taylor: I discussed this in my weekly report. I am starting to lean toward the idea of having Shoppach get the majority of the time behind the plate next season.

I will not expect this current rate of production to continue, but if Shoppach can hit .250 with 20-plus home runs as the majority catcher while Victor holds down first base, I would be happy. The only down part would be that the Indians would have to carry a third catcher on the roster, who would not play at all.

What it comes down to is whether the Indians would want Garko's bat in the lineup with his deficiency in the field and on the bases, or Shoppach's bat in the lineup with his good defense and similar base running skills.

The trade off with Victor at first as compared to Garko is negligible in my opinion, neither are great defenders at the position, but there would be an upgrade behind the plate.

It is a good problem to have when guys force you to make a decision as such.

Fun Question of the Week:

The Indians have had numerous logos over the years, generally being the current Chief Wahoo, but do you have any favorite logo? Maybe the old Chief Wahoo , the current Wahoo, or the newer script I.

Samantha Bunten: I like the current Chief Wahoo. I realize the script "I" is classier, but come on, we're from Cleveland.

Nino Colla: I've been pimping out the script I. That's what's on both of my hats. I like it because it's different. I'm still waiting for them to change our name though. That would be the day everyone goes INSANE. It would be getting rid of Jacob's field times 100,000.

I like the script "I", though. Change it up, and plus I'm hip and part of the new generation, so I can do that.

Jeff Smirnoff: Living in DC, I cannot believe that Redskins is still allowed to be used as a nickname. While I find the Redskins' logo honorable and classy, the name leaves a lot to be desired. I feel the opposite about the Indians and Chief Wahoo.

While I do not find the name offensive, I can definitely see why many find Chief Wahoo offensive. I think it's time to cut bait when it comes to the name and logo and start fresh.

The team was once called the Blues, and it would fit with the city's musical history and the presence of the Rock 'N Roll Hall of Fame. Plus it would minimize the impact of the team's color scheme, just switching red and blue, making blue prevalent and red secondary.

Then you'd have the Browns and the Blues, and for some reason, that makes sense to me.

Even if they stay the Indians, I feel they need to focus on the script "I" or block "C" and close the book on Chief Wahoo.

Do I get brownie points for taking the "fun" question of the week and making it serious?

Michael Taylor: I am partial to the old Wahoo from the late '40s. This Wahoo has more character and has a genuine smile on his face. The current face is very boring, and the smile looks forced to me. It reminds me of how I smile during pictures...do I really have to smile?

And what is he looking at to his left? He can't even look you in the face when giving that fake smile.

In the long run, I believe all Chief Wahoo logos will be gone, as the Indians are currently working in the script "I". Though, I am not totally digging that either.

Though some of my favorite logos in the league are just letters. The Tigers have a classic one that I like, it brings out a nostalgic feeling that only baseball can. I would like to see the Indians maybe bring back the original letter "C" instead of the "I".

Roto Chronicles: American League, Aug. 4

Michael Taylor — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 02:08:47 -0400

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

Chris Davis, 1B—TEX (UP) I brought Chris Davis up in my Futures Market section a couple of months ago as a potential sleeper, but I surely was not expecting this big of an outburst. The 22-year-old rookie first baseman is hitting .295 with 11 home runs, 22 RBI, and 27 runs scored in just 33 games. He is hitting a home run once every 11.1 at-bats, just astounding. And for the season, he has already hit 34 home runs (one every 12.3 at-bats) between three levels of competition. The power is obvious, but can we expect the batting average to continue? To an extent, yes, we could see it hover around the .270-.275 range. A 76 percent contact rate will certainly make it hard to sustain any average near .300, but Davis is hitting 22.5 percent line drives, which should give him a shot at keeping his average reasonable. Just understand that there is risk in that skill with Davis as the league adjusts.

Kelly Shoppach, C—CLE (UP) Shoppach is another fantasy breakout player. All he had to do to really become recognized was go five for six with five extra-base hits in a game last week. This was just the second-time in American League history that such an event occurred, the last being Lou Boudreau in 1946. But all that really happened to make Shoppach a valuable player was to actually get playing time. When Victor Martinez went down, the astute fantasy player should have been grabbing Shoppach up. His average will be tough to maintain while striking out 34 percent of the time, a la Mike Napoli, but Shoppach’s power is just the same. Shoppach hits a very good 19.7 percent of flyballs over the fence. Since taking over for Victor Martinez about six weeks ago, Shoppach is hitting .308, with 10 home runs and 27 RBI. Too bad for him that Martinez will likely be back in two weeks, but even so, manager Eric Wedge stated that Martinez will split time with Shoppach behind the plate.

Mark Teixeira, 1B—LAA (UP) You can debate whether the Angels did the right thing or not by swapping first basemen with the Atlanta Braves (plus a pitching prospect), but as negligible as that difference is to the Angels winning the West, the Angels brought in a game-changing player. He is currently on fire, hitting .346 since the break and is a lifetime .296 hitter after the break (20 points higher than before the break). Look for big things from Teixeira in the middle of a potent Angels’ lineup. He has cut back on strikeouts, while walking more, sustained a good line-drive rate of 20 percent, but is showing a slight decrease in home runs per flyball. Yet, because he has a lifetime second-half slugging percentage of .564, (53 points higher than before break), we should expect that his power will rebound to normal levels. After writing this, he hit a grand slam Sunday against the Yankees.

Adam Jones, OF—BAL (DOWN) Don’t buy into the hype. Jones has created some positive vibes over the past month with his increasing batting average and skill set, but underneath of this is a player still struggling. After a torrid June and into early July, Jones has slowed a bit with a .300 OBP since the break, with zero walks and 12 strikeouts. This is what continues to plague him. For the season, Jones has a 92:19 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Couple this with a general lack of power, just 6.2 percent home runs per flyball, and we can see why he is just a .266 hitter with 10 home runs in a season’s worth of at-bats in his career. Late word also has Jones going for a CT scan of his foot today to see if there are any breaks.

Paul Konerko, 1B—CHW (DOWN) You can yell at me. Just as I projected Konerko to rebound in the second half of the season as a buy-low target, the White Sox go and make a trade for Ken Griffey Jr. This move basically sits Konerko on the bench against right-handers, completely killing what fantasy value he may have had left. You can officially release the veteran slugger.

David Murphy, OF—TEX (DOWN) In what seems like forever ago, Murphy was the leading candidate for AL Rookie-of-the-Year. That was before Evan Longoria broke out to take a stranglehold on the award, and before Murphy’s extended slump. Since June 12, Murphy has hit just .219 with four home runs. This has brought his bating average down to a still respectable .268 with 14 home runs. This should be about where he levels off. Murphy has an 83 percent contact rate with a .296 BABIP. His 10 percent HR/FB is likely to dip a bit more, but a .270 average with 18-20 home runs is possible.

Pitchers

Jeremy Guthrie, SP—BAL (UP) I am usually hesitant to write anything positive about Jeremy Guthrie after his unsuccessful time as a first-round draft pick of my Cleveland Indians, but Guthrie has really found himself in Baltimore. He threw his first career complete game against the Mariners on Saturday night and has been a fairly consistent pitcher over the past two seasons. At his current pace, Guthrie will finish with back-to-back seasons with an ERA under 4.00, even though fielding-independent statistics say he should be above that. Guthrie has developed into a groundball pitcher, currently with 44.5 percent of balls on the ground, which is a necessity for one whose strikeout rate is just barely average. For the season, Guthrie is 8-8 with a 3.35 ERA, but is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA over his past five starts.

Jon Lester, SP—BOS (UP) Lester keeps improving as the season rolls along. I wouldn’t have believed you if you told me at the beginning of the season that he’d be 10-3 after his first start of August. He has certainly improved upon his skills this year. His walks allowed and home runs allowed per flyball have significantly decreased, while he has significantly increased the number of groundballs induced. Add these together and it is no wonder that his ERA is 3.14. I still wouldn’t expect him to sustain his ERA at this level, but even if he backtracks a bit, while his innings count gets into career-high levels, his ERA should sustain around 3.75, which, on the Red Sox, will give him plenty of opportunities for wins.

Francisco Liriano, SP—MIN (UP) Welcome back to the bigs, Francisco! The Twins released veteran starting pitcher Livan Hernandez last week to make room for the talented lefty. Liriano made his first start since April 24 on Sunday against the Indians. Liriano went six shutout innings, giving up just three hits while striking out five. He looked at times like the dominant starter of his rookie season. Including the minor leagues, Liriano has now won 11-straight decisions.

Clay Buchholz, BOS (DOWN) It hasn’t been pretty since Buchholz’ recall from Pawtucket on July 11. He has four starts without a quality start to his credit. The best start was a 5.1-inning performance when he allowed three runs with seven strikeouts. Even in that start he was not great. He served up two home runs and put nine baserunners on. Overall, in these four starts, Buchholz has an 0-3 record and a 6.75 ERA. With all of this said, Buchholz is testing the patience of many fantasy owners while he struggles with his command. Buchholz’ BB/9 is a high 4.52. He also allows 12.3 percent home runs per flyball. Yet, his dominant stuff matched with groundball tendencies still teases us. One positive is that even with his struggles, his expected ERA is 3.86.

John Danks, SP—CHW (DOWN) Are we starting to see the young pitcher begin to slow as his innings pitched total creeps closer to his career high of 156 innings from his 2005 minor-league season? Right now, Danks is at 130.2 innings, which is close to his 139 of last season and 140 from 2006. Over his past four starts, Danks has allowed 32 base hits, four of which have been home runs, in 23.2 innings. He is 1-0 over these starts, but his ERA of 6.85 and WHIP of 1.52 tell a better story of how ineffective he has been.

Shaun Marcum, SP—TOR (DOWN) The remarkable start to the season of Shaun Marcum seems like forever ago. After going 5-4 with a 2.65 ERA through June 18, Marcum went to the disabled list with shoulder soreness before returning on July 22. The three starts since have been terrible. He has gone 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA, allowing 21 hits and five home runs in 14.2 innings. His strikeouts have also been non-existent, just seven to his seven walks. For the season, Marcum’s ERA now stands at 3.57, which is still below his expected ERA of 4.05. I would expect something of a turnaround soon, but don’t expect what you may have benefited from earlier this season.

INJURY REPORT

Bartolo Colon is nearing a return. He has thrown multiple side sessions with no setbacks and is ready to begin a rehab assignment this Tuesday. He will be back by the middle of August, maybe sooner.

Fans of Phillip Hughes should take notice. The much-ballyhooed prospect is set to start his rehab assignment this Tuesday. Hughes is recovering from fractured ribs suffered back in April when he was struggling with an ERA of 9.00. Should he succeed in his rehab, Hughes should be up in a few weeks and certainly give the Yankees an upgrade to the rotation.

With a lot less hype, Carl Pavano might actually pitch this season, though manager Joe Girardi says he is not expecting much from him. Pavano threw two scoreless innings in his first rehab appearance of the season. He is recovering from right elbow surgery.

Out since Spring Training, when his career was in jeopardy, Rocco Baldelli will likely return early this week. He will give added depth to the roster and will be utilized as a right-handed part of a right field and/or DH platoon, maybe more. He is a pickup in AL formats. Monitor in mixed leagues. Baldelli hit .257 with five home runs and 16 RBI in 24 minor-league rehab starts.

Shannon Stewart, who severely sprained his ankle nearly two months ago, is on a rehab assignment in Class-A Dunedin. He is one for eight with two RBI through Sunday. No word on how long this rehab is scheduled for.

The White Sox are expecting the return of a couple of key players this week. Jose Contreras threw a rehab start yesterday, going five innings, giving up three runs on four hits, and walking three. He is likely to be activated for his next start by the weekend. Also, Joe Crede’s back is doing well, and he is on pace to return to the White Sox this Wednesday, even though he sat out both Saturday and Sunday with more back issues. Assuming he is activated, Josh Fields will likely be sent back to AAA.

The Twins took a heavy blow last week when their speedy second baseman, Alexi Casilla, was placed on the disabled list with a torn ligament in his right thumb. There is a possibility he may need surgery, but the Twins and Casilla are going to wait another week and re-evaluate before choosing that route, which would end his season.

The Twins, however, are expecting the return of outfielder Michael Cuddyer in the next week. Out since June 28 with a strained tendon in a finger, Cuddyer will begin a rehab assignment this week in hopes of returning maybe by the weekend. This would cause Denard Span to lose some playing time, and in turn, probably Carlos Gomez, who would likely, in turn, give up some time to Span in center.

Not only has Todd Jones lost his closer’s job, he is now on the disabled list with what is being called inflammation and tendonitis of his rotator cuff. Jones says that the pain has been getting worse over the past six weeks. Don’t count on anything from him the rest of the way, even if he returns.

Of little fantasy significance, the Royals placed second baseman Mark Grudzielanek on the disabled list Saturday with a sprained right ankle. Mike Aviles will likely shift over, with Tony Pena Jr. and Esteban German picking up the at-bats.

It was a rough week for the Rangers. Starting last Sunday, Kevin Millwood’s groin acted up again landing him on the disabled list. Then, Hank Blalock once again found his way back onto the disabled list (likely for the season), this time with inflammation in his throwing shoulder, while another starter, Eric Hurley, went to the disabled list with shoulder inflammation.

Also, Milton Bradley sat out the majority of the week with another quad strain, and Ramon Vazquez missed the weekend with shoulder pain, but neither of these two figure to land on the disabled list.

Erik Bedard threw a bullpen session on Sunday. It was the first time he had thrown since being sidelined on July 4. The Mariners plan on Bedard making a couple of rehab starts before returning later this month. That is, if all goes as planned.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

Billy Butler, 1B/DH—KC The line drives are back for this talented hitter. Still only at 15.1 percent on the season, Butler is slowly creeping up to last season’s standards. Thus, his BABIP of .282 will increase in the second half of the season. In addition to this, Butler is showing an increased contact rate this season of 88 percent. While continuing to show his excellent ability to put the ball in play, Butler has hit .356 with five home runs and 15 RBI since the All-Star break, raising his batting average to .271 with seven home runs. He has six walks to just two strikeouts over these 59 post-All-Star at-bats. The power remains the question with Butler, as he is a groundball hitter who has just eight percent HR/FB, but with the increasing average, I’d still add knowing it has to get better.

Garret Anderson, OF—LAA The ever-steady Garret Anderson continues to put up worthy numbers. He was on fire in July, hitting .389 with five home runs and 22 RBI. There is no way that he could keep that pace up, but if you are in the market for an extra outfielder in a mixed league, you certainly could do worse than Anderson. Anderson will not be a season-changing add by any stretch, but if you want a guy who will consistently put the ball in play (14 percent strikeout rate) with a sustainable .307 BABIP, which will translate into a batting average in the mid-.280s, then Anderson is definitely worth a look. Anderson also will give solid RBI totals from a waiver-wire outfielder with some pop in the bat. He’ll probably finish somewhere near his usual .285 with 17 home runs and 80 RBI.

Gil Meche, SP—KC Another good, but not great, guy to look at for your pitching staff in deep, mixed leagues is Gil Meche. Meche has quietly duplicated his successful 2007 season. Meche is 9-9 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Yes, very average, but depending on your situation, a guy like Meche or a Jeremy Guthrie can give you consistent innings that do not kill you. Meche has increased his strikeout rate to 6.78 per nine innings, decreased his HR/FB to 8.1 percent, and continued to hold opposing hitters to the usual .260 batting average. He is working on three-straight quality starts since the All-Star break and is quietly 8-5 with a 3.28 ERA since May 1.

Kyle Farnsworth, RP—DET With the mess that is the Detroit Tigers' bullpen, do not rule out Fernando Rodney losing his job in the near future and the newly acquired Farnsworth picking up the save opportunities. The power-armed reliever’s strikeout totals are nowhere near what they used, but remain at an effective level of about a strikeout an inning, which is three times that of Todd Jones. Though, his high home-run rate is very disconcerting. Farnsworth’s HR/FB rate is 21 percent, and that is from a flyball pitcher. That is truly unsustainable as his career rate is around 12, but that number is not even that great. While he may get the opportunity for the coveted saves statistic, tread carefully and know that he is likely not the answer either. Though, you never know with saves. It is very unpredictable.

FUTURES MARKET

If you are looking for a hot prospect that may soon make an impact, look no further than Gio Gonzalez of Oakland. The 2008 minor-league strikeout king is having a fine July and into August. Over his past seven appearances (six of which are starts), Gonzalez has an ERA of 1.82 with 37 strikeouts and merely 16 hits allowed in 34.2 innings of work. With the exodus of Oakland starters before the deadline, and Dana Eveland being demoted, there is room for Gio to make his debut.

One of many Indians prospects having fine seasons, infielder Beau Mills has hit .289 with 17 home runs and 73 RBI. This is after a terrible April in which he hit just .222 and slugged .378. He has adjusted well to the high-A Carolina League and is primed to make the climb to AA Akron at any time. He is certainly a future power-hitter as a corner infielder in the major leagues. We’ll just have to wait a few more years.

It has been a while since giving an update on Tigers top prospect Rick Porcello. He is still at high-A Lakeland, where he continues to give solid, consistent innings. He is not overpowering batters to rack up strikeouts, just five per nine innings, but a high 64 percent groundball rate continues. He locates the ball well with his power sinker in the low 90s and has been compared to the likes of Roy Halladay. For the season, Porcello is 6-6 with a 2.81 ERA.

A corner outfielder in the Boston organization is on the move, and no, it is not Manny Ramirez. Josh Reddick, the Sox’ 17th-round selection from the 2006 draft has moved up two levels this season to AA Portland. He hit a combined .342 with 17 home runs and 66 RBI prior to his recent call-up to AA. He has slowed to a .219 average with Portland, but that will not last.

According to Baseball America, in their 2008 handbook, “Reddick will consistently hit for average because he has a smooth lefty stroke, strong wrists, and a great feel for putting the bat on the ball.”

Brandon Wood is some sort of ridiculous hot right now. For the month of July, the Angles’ infield prospect hit .355 with 11 home runs and 23 RBI. The crazy part is that most of that came in a 10-game stretch where he hit .436 with seven of his home runs. Though looking at his stats, the best stat for Wood is the fact that he has walked 16 times to 25 strikeouts in July, a vast improvement over his usual tendencies.

Is it the beginning of a new trend or just a blip on the radar because of small sample size? Wood is hitting .285 with 25 home runs and 61 RBI for AAA Salt Lake.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

With the trade deadline quickly approaching in many leagues, this will be the last installment of Buy Low/Sell High for this season.

Buy – Chone Figgins, 3B—LAA Figgins is quite possibly at one of his worst levels of fantasy value of his career. He has no power to speak of, which not much was expected, a .287 batting average (second lowest of career), another decrease in stolen base output, and a total of 13 RBI. He’s averaged about 60 RBI a season over the past four years. With all of that said, Figgins has quietly begun a turnaround. It happens to coincide with the Angels’ offense heating up. Since the break, Figgins is hitting .328 with 13 runs scored, two RBI and is second to BJ Upton with five steals. With the addition of Mark Teixeira to the lineup, Figgins should have the opportunity to round the bases a couple more times before the end of the season. Don’t give up too much and lose a lot in the power categories, but if you need some batting average with some runs scored and steals, Figgins may be your man.

Sell – Justin Duchscherer, SP—OAK When will the arm tire out, that is the question? Has it already started? The converted reliever, Duchscherer, has only 15 strikeouts to 10 walks over his past 26.2 innings. Plus, he gave up more home runs, five, during the month of July than he had the rest of the season combined. He has become much more hittable, 25 hits over these 26.2 innings, as compared to the 66 hits allowed in the remaining 101 innings of work. All of this may end up meaningless, but you have to wonder. He is at 127.2 innings this season. The most he has ever thrown in a professional season was 155 in 2003. Before time runs out on the trade deadline in your league, consider moving Duchscherer before it is too late.

RANKING OF THE WEEK: TOP-10 ELIGIBLE AL SECOND BASEMAN

1. Ian Kinsler, TEX
2. Dustin Pedroia, BOS
3. Brian Roberts, BAL
4. B.J. Upton, TB
5. Alexei Ramirez, CHW
6. Howie Kendrick, LAA
7. Robinson Cano, NYY
8. Mike Aviles, KC
9. Placido Polanco, DET
10. Jose Lopez, SEA

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Wahoo Weekly Report, Aug. 1

Michael Taylor — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 02:11:08 -0400

Record Report:

Actual Record: 47-60, Last Place—13.0 Games Back

Weekly Gain/Loss in division: No change with a 3-4 record

Pythagorean Record: 54-53, Fourth Place—7.0 Games Back

What’s Happening

Manager Eric Wedge stated Tuesday that injured catcher Victor Martinez will not return as a full-time catcher this season. He and Shoppach will split time, with Martinez getting some playing time at both first and DH.

I hadn’t thought about it until I saw this, but it is the right thing to do. The Indians may as well find out what they have in Shoppach while Martinez returns from elbow surgery.

Also on the inactive front, don’t expect Travis Hafner to return anytime soon. A scheduled strength test on his shoulder (that was last reported to be 65 percent) was delayed due to a family emergency.

It turns out that Hafer’s father, Terry, passed away from a battle with cancer. It surely has been a trying season for Pronk. Now with Martinez likely to get some DH time, Hafner may be out until the spring.

Back to Kelly Shoppach. He is certainly playing terrific baseball while filling in for the injured Martinez. It’s no wonder that the Indians want him to keep playing. Wednesday night, Shoppach had a game for the ages, and became the first American League player since Indians legend Lou Boudreau in 1946 to have five extra-base hits in a single game.

Shoppach went five for six (raising his batting average 17 points), with two home runs and three doubles. Since taking over for Victor nearly seven weeks ago, Shoppach is hitting .303 with nine home runs, 13 doubles, and 25 RBI in 35 games. Can we maybe say that Shoppach will be at catcher next season with Victor at first base? It is worth a thought.

Why did Franklin Gutierrez bat second in the lineup against a tough right-handed pitcher in Justin Verlander on Thursday? Please tell me. We all know that he cannot hit a right-handed pitcher to save himself, let alone an elite one.

I understand getting Grady a day off in the field and playing Gurierrez, but second in the lineup? He’s a career .237 hitter, with a terrible .281 OBP against right-handers. I will puke if I see that again. Although, to the benefit of the team and its future, it was not Dellucci, as usual, in that spot.

Carlton from the Fresh Prince of Bel-Air...I mean Ben Francisco, broke out of his first real slump of the season with a four-for-seven performance against the Tigers, with two home runs. It was his first multi-home run game of his young career.

What were the odds? In back-to-back days, pitchers with ERAs above five would be doing their best Cliff Lee impersonations. Jeremy Sowers had a perfect game through five innings before the Twins broke through for two runs on three hits in eight innings on Sunday.

And Paul Byrd, on Monday night, threw 7.2 innings of shutout baseball, giving up just four hits. Nobody could have projected that to happen.

The return of Jensen Lewis has been less than impressive. Since his recall on July 4, Lewis has pitched 10.1 innings. He has given up eight runs, 15 hits, and five walks, giving him an ERA of 6.97 since his return. It is certainly tough to pitch when allowing two base runners per inning pitched.

The Indians passed 1.5 million in attendance for the season this week. Enough to place them 21st in the major leagues with an average of 27,292 (63 percent capacity) nightly at “The Jake”…oops, I mean Progressive Field. Man, I’ve got to stop that.

What to Look For

Continued improvement by the young Asdrubal Cabrera. Jamey Carroll will likely not get much playing time, due to his recent slump and hamstring injury, giving Cabrera the chance to play nearly every day at second base.

Plus, why play Carroll at this point over the kid? Since Cabrera’s promotion, he has hit .282 with a homer and three RBI, raising his batting average above .200 for the first time since May 13.

Increased playing time for Franklin Gutierrez. With Blake now gone, opening up first base full-time to Garko, and assuming the Indians smarten up and sit Dellucci; Gutierrez is primed to receive his share of at-bats for the foreseeable future.

It may not be every day, but five to six days a week should be sufficient. Mostly around favorable pitching matchups and not in the second spot in the lineup, please. It is time to see what “Frank the Tank” is made of.

Can Fausto Carmona build upon his positive outing against the Tigers on Thursday? He will face a struggling Rays lineup next Tuesday. Tampa Bay is hitting just .236 in the month of July, the worst in the league. Their team OPS for July is merely .682, next to last in the league. Carmona has one career start versus Tampa. He won that start, going six innings, giving up one run on four hits.

Possible re-demotion or designation for assignment of Juan Rincon. To quote Baseball Prospectus before the season, “It’d be more encouraging if he was hurt; now, he just looks like a pitcher on his way out of the league.” I know it won’t happen, but I can dream can’t I?

He was worth a flyer as the season was over, but washed-up relievers are a dime a dozen. Rincon is 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA in seven appearances spanning 8.2 innings with the Tribe. His ERA in Minnesota wasn’t much better: 6.11 in 28 innings.

Unfortunately for the Tribe, they will run into a couple of contending teams on the road over the next week. First, the Indians will face the Twins, whom they are just 4-8 against this season (including 1-5 at the Metrodome).

Then it is off to Tampa, where the Rays have a major-league best 40 wins at home. They will undoubtedly be looking for revenge after the Indians swept four games from them entering the break. This could be a very tough week for the Indians.

Down on the Farm

Recent acquisition from the Sabathia deal, Rob Bryson, was found to have a partial tear in his labrum and rotator cuff. He will likely miss the remainder of this season, but will be ready to go come 2009. Let's hope that this is not a sign of things to come, and that the Indians caught it before the damage was too bad.

Newly acquired catcher Carlos Santana was sent to begin his Indians' career in Class-A Kinston. This creates a logjam of catchers there' where currently the K-Tribe has four catchers on the roster, including another prospect, Matt McBride, who has been playing as the DH of late.

Anthony Reyes had a so-so first outing in Buffalo. He threw five innings, giving up three runs on five hits while walking four. He also served up two gopher balls. It was one start.

I wouldn’t read too much into this first start after the whirlwind of a trade. I would expect a better start next time out. He will be on the Indians' roster before the end of the season.

Another addition to the Buffalo club, pitcher John Meloan, has in fact been moved back into the bullpen. In his first two appearances, covering two innings, he has no runs allowed with two strikeouts.

In a non-acquiree news, Kinston slugger, and former first-round pick, Beau Mills, is tearing the cover off of the ball in the Carolina League. Subtracting his poor April, Mills has hit .304 with 14 home runs and 56 RBI. His slugging percentage is .529 over this time frame. He will undoubtedly be starting in Akron next season.

Quotes of the Week

Rafael Betancourt on his season-long slump: “I don't want to kill anybody or do anything crazy."

One can only laugh at this quote, knowing how bad he has been. Also, that we never hear much from the struggling right-hander. He is usually as even as a person can get.

Ryan Garko on his season-long slump: “I've just got to stop worrying about my swing and just get back to competing and grinding out at-bats...That's the kind of player I was when I first got called up and I just need to get back to it."

The surprising thing to me is that it has taken this long for Garko to finally admit that he has been doing something wrong. From what I have read all season, he said that he needed to stay consistent in his approach and that things would turn around, kind of talking like main-man Wedge.

Hopefully, this will be the first step to right himself mechanically to allow his line-drive stroke to come back.

Tribe Talk: A Continued Influx Of Talent

Michael Taylor — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 15:32:01 -0400

Welcome to Tribe Talk, a season-long look at the trials and tribulations of the Cleveland Indians from the views of the loyal Tribe fans here on Bleacher Report.

I would like to thank my fellow Indians community leader, Nino Colla, and this week’s participants: Scott Miles and David Wiley, for pitching in their takes.

This discussion is not just meant for the included Indians fans. Please feel free to comment on any of the questions or any of our answers below.

Once again, the Indians have pulled the trigger on a couple of moves to reposition themselves for a return to competitiveness next season and in the future. We discuss these moves, whether or not the Franklin Gutierrez and Shin-Soo Choo outfield platoon will work, and what the Indians' plan for a closer should be.

Without further ado, let's talk Tribe!

Let's start with the big stuff. What are your impressions on the two trades that the Indians completed on Saturday?

Nino Colla: I like both moves. I did not expect such a great return for Casey Blake. I now see why so many Dodger fans dislike Ned Colletti.

Everything I've read about Carlos Santana screams Victor Martinez with better defense and more athleticism. I think Jon Meloan is an afterthought in the deal, but I LOVE what I've read about him. I think that was a great addition, if it was that.

As for Anthony Reyes...The risk is worth it. Luis Perdomo is the same age as guys like Jeff Stevens, and yet he's just made it to AA Akron. I think we could afford to lose him. Plus, his numbers have inflated with every level he's gone to.

Great weekend for the Tribe. The CC and Blake trades have single-handedly replenished our farm system. Add in a the good prospect that we yet to receive from Milwaukee (By getting Santana, it strongly suggests we'll be taking Michael Brantley), and this club's farm system might be rated as one of the highest next year.

Columbus is in for a treat when they get the AAA team next year. It will be chocked-full of exciting players. Morgan Ensberg and Todd Linden probably won't be suiting up.

Scott Miles: Well, I'm one of about 12 Tribe fans upset that Casey Blake is gone, which deserves its own separate column. That being said, you can't help but be impressed with the two guys we got back.

Oye como va, Carlos Santana is putting together the best season by any minor leaguer right now, and it sounds like he's a good-enough athlete that he could also play some third or even outfield and not just be behind the dish—like Russell Martin.

For whatever reason, the Dodgers moved Jonathan Meloan to the rotation and left him there, even though he struggled and was dominant as a reliever with a ridiculously good K-IP ratio.

So I'm kind of excited to see what Meloan can do, likely in September as a call-up, for our bullpen, and Santana could be in the mix in another two years to challenge for a spot on the big club.

Anthony Reyes in an intriguing acquisition, although I had the chance to watch Luis Perdomo on a daily basis last year, and I think he can be a pretty good big-league reliever.

Reyes has essentially pitched well in two starts in his career, although both were in the postseason.

I don't have too high of expectations for him, but he's another arm to add to the mix for 2009.

Michael Taylor: I think the fact that around the country, baseball people view the Blake trade as a steal says a lot. I did not expect this much of a return for a two-month rental of a Casey Blake.

I mean, the No. 8 prospect according to Baseball America in the Dodgers' farm system in Meloan (whose numbers are skewed because of the attempt to make him a starter) and the No. 25 prospect entering the season in Carlos Santana (who is a near Victor Martinez clone leads all of minor league baseball in RBI).

We should begin seeing some results with Meloan, as he has an excellent history as a reliever, striking out 11 or 12 per nine innings. Best bet is that he goes to Buffalo to work in the bullpen a bit and gets recalled in September. Maybe even a closer option down the road.

Santana, as a former third baseman and above-average defending catcher, gives the Indians options. His offense was not the strong suit coming into the season, but that has changed, while his defense remains. Depending on how things shake out, he could play either position.

As for the Anthony Reyes deal, why not? Sure he has struggled with the Cardinals, but it sounds like it was a conflict with Cardinals' management over how he should pitch. He will be sent to Buffalo and likely will be recalled in my estimation by September to see what he can do.

He should be a very integral part of the rotation next season. The Indians still need to find one, preferably two, major-league ready arms to give the rotation depth next season.

David Wiley: Coming back off an extended vacation, I don't know what the two trades were, other than the fact that I saw a Dodger highlight on SportsCenter featuring Casey Blake. Unless there are two Casey Blakes in the league, I have to assume the Indians dealt him.

Since he was a free agent at the end of the season, the handwriting was on the wall for Blake anyhow. This will give Andy Marte the third-base position for the rest of the season, and it may give him a chance to earn some starting honors. To me, this is an "about time" move.

Aaron Laffey was sent down to Buffalo to make room for Fausto Carmona's return Saturday night. Should the Indians have stuck it out with Laffey on the big club to let him fix his problems?

Nino Colla: I support this move. Some may think this is choosing Sowers over Laffey. It is not. This move makes sense. With Anthony Reyes in the fold though, no worries about losing Matt Ginter. They couldn't risk losing Ginter though.

They need to keep a viable arm up here for a little longer, because I guarantee you that if Aaron Laffey went out there the next time out and got hammered, he'd be getting sent down. So really, this move makes sense.

Had you released Ginter, and eventually called down Laffey, then, well, you'd lose someone to bring up to take his spot. Do we really want to see Jeff Weaver? I didn't think so.

Scott Miles: It was kind of tough to see Laffey go down because he's really only had two poor starts the entire season. He's had five quality starts in his past nine, and only really struggled mightily against the Angels.

The other three outings were so-so, not bad, but not good either. While he's not as lights-out as he was before, what is he going to benefit from by going back to Buffalo? I don't get it.

Here's a random and probably stupid thought: Why not just go to a six-man rotation? The team obviously wants to keep Ginter around for a bit, and Sowers hasn't been terrible as of late, and you want Carmona back in the mix...So hey, why not? It's not like the season could get any worse.

Michael Taylor: I support it. He has options, so use them. Jeremy Sowers was coming off of his first win in over a year in the majors, and Matt Ginter has not hurt the team. Laffey is such a competitor that he was pressuring himself to fix the problem and a change of scenery may help.

He will be back before we know it, likely for good. The next time he is struggling as such, he will be forced to work through it with the Indians. But while there are options, use them and see what else you have.

David Wiley: Laffey was doing fine last time I saw him, so the fact he was sent down is a huge surprise to me. Out of the five rotation spots, he and Lee were the two most stable. I think this was a bad move, but didn't see the games in which he earned a reason to be sent down.

The closer situation: We know that it is a problem, and Eric Wedge seems to think that the closer of the future is not on the roster, based on his quote from last week. What is your take on the problem?

Nino Colla: I made a very radical call on my blog the day after this quote came out. It's off the wall, but certainly not as off the wall as Sheldon Ocker's idea to use Paul Byrd as the closer. I mean, really?

Anyway, I suggested Mark Shapiro should take a risk and go get Francisco Rodriguez in the offseason. He's going to want what, $15 million? It's obvious this team won't spend much money on anything else in the offseason. Maybe a third baseman, maybe they'll move Peralta over or play Marte.

There is plenty of cash floating around now that Sabathia, Byrd, and Blake's deals are coming off the books. You get a decent starter and splurge on Rodriguez. Obviously, it will never happen, but I can dream, can't I? I'm sort of sick and tired of having to depend on the arms we have moving into that role.

Can someone like Jensen Lewis do it? Maybe, but quite frankly, I'd rather not use next year to find out.

The more realistic options are Jason Isringhausen, Brandon Lyon, and Brian Fuentes. Mark Shapiro would really get the people on his side, though, if he pulled off something like K-Rod. If he wanted to be bold and go for the jugular, he'd do it. But that isn't Shapiro, so I'll go back into my corner now.

Scott Miles: I really like Masa and I really like Perez, but neither one of them has long-term potential as a closer. In an ideal world, it would be Raffy Betancourt, but, well, that's not even a realistic option right now.

Sadly, it seems like we're going to have to pony up big money to try to sign one in the offseason. The only in-house option right now might be Adam Miller, but I'm a bit leery of giving him the closer's role without any big-league experience whatsoever.

So yeah, this is a problem. It's a biiiiiiig problem...

Michael Taylor: This is priority No. 1 for 2009. This team will not compete for anything until the bullpen is stabilized. We have seen what a closer can do for this team when doing their job...Wickman in 2005 and Borowski last season.

Sure, they were not the ideal closers, but when they had their good seasons, the bullpen was great. This allowed others to find consistent roles and do their job.

As far as finding the guy, I believe that the Indians could fill it from within: They have some options. Though, none really have much experience in the major leagues as a closer.

Kobayashi has experience from Japan, and six saves this season, but do you really trust him late in a game as a lock-down guy? Just look back to Friday night, or the Adam Dunn home run that is still flying.

I do like Perez as a future closer—he has the mentality that I like—but he loses focus at times and loses command of the plate. It is too early for him, but he deserves a look.

Maybe it is a free agent. K-Rod will be out there. But do we seriously think that $15 million on a closer is a sound investment? Especially one who walks so many hitters. There will be a second tier of closers next free-agent market, and you will see the next closer come from that mix. Likely, an Isringhausen or Fuentes.

David Wiley: Pretty simple. We don't have a closer. I agree with Eric Wedge, although I think Masa could be a closer, as he was in Japan. He'd be the person I'd tag for the role if I were Wedge. Perez, maybe, but you hate to put a lefty in the closer role.

Player Debate of the Week: Chootierrez Platoon—

With the infamous Dellucci/Michaels platoon long gone, a new platoon has developed featuring Shin-Soo Choo and Franklin Gutierrez. Do you like/dislike this platoon, and do you see the Indians continuing into next season with this until either Crowe or LaPorta is ready?

Nino Colla: I'm seizing this opportunity to rant. Why is David Dellucci pinch-hitting late in the game for Franklin Gutierrez in a pressure situation? Are we trying to kill this kid's confidence or what?

This season is a lost cause. Will someone tell Eric Wedge to stop managing like we have a stinking chance. Take some freaking consideration of the future of this club and stop screwing around with David Dellucci.

I LOVE this platoon. Keep playing it. I hope Andy Marte hits 15 home runs the rest of the year. That will shut Eric Wedge up. He's becoming the Dusty Baker of Cleveland...I mean, I typically don't go off on Wedge like this, but I've about seen enough of David Dellucci.

This platoon shouldn't be. Choo, Franklin, Francisco should all be playing every day...Be it DHing Choo or Francisco on some days, or whatever needs to be done to make it happen. Eventually, it will become a platoon, but right now, it shouldn't be.

As for Crowe and LaPorta, this is the outfield mix for the present, and until either is ready. I personally still think LaPorta is destined for first base, but that's neither here nor there. If Crowe rips it up in AAA like he did AA, we could see him sooner than expected. Until then, it's Chootierrez.

Scott Miles: The advantage that this platoon has over the other is youth. Both Gut and Choo are 25. Plus, Franklin is an excellent defender, so he deserves playing time, despite his .217 batting average (through Monday). Choo is batting .257, but has 24 RBI and a .354 OBP through 44 games.

So, we'll see. I wouldn't be surprised to see them start the season with this platoon, and if it's working, it's working. If it's not, then at least we have some other options to turn too.

Michael Taylor: Being a numbers guy, I believe that platoons can work. Gutierrez has a history of hitting left-handed pitchers well, and Choo has hit right-handers well this season. I do not expect this platoon to put up huge numbers, likely a .275 average with around 15 home runs and 15 steals, but those aren't bad numbers at a budget cost.

The platoon will continue the rest of the season and into next season, assuming Choo doesn't have to begin serving his time in the Korean Army...seriously.

He is to begin a two-year term no later than 2010. Should Choo leave for this, then the Indians will need to make a move and use Gutierrez primarily as a late-inning defensive replacement and pinch runner.

Also, who knows, we could see Crowe by the end of this season. He could be in the mix to start next season in left field.

David Wiley: Dislike it. Plain and simple. Gutierrez should have been left in the minors. Choo was doing all right and was a bit of an offensive catalyst. It's amazing how not watching the Indians play for 10 days makes you wonder about your answers to these questions

Fun Question of the Week:

Do you have any memorabilia that is a special keepsake to you, such as a caught foul ball at a game, a certain player's rookie card, or an autographed baseball?

Nino Colla: As big of a fan of the Indians as I am... I have no really cool memorabilia. I've never caught a foul ball (I've never sat in an area to catch a foul ball, our seats are in the outfield), nor a home run. I have no autographs. I've never met any Indian, aside from being a few feet away from Coco Crisp one night.

So...No...I don't...But when I was younger, I insisted on buying these player/number baseballs from the team shop. I still have most of them. The only one that is ruined is Juan Gonzalez...I use him to play catch.

The rest I have stored away in the closet. If I remember, I've got Thome, Manny, Omar, Sexson, Fryman, Sandy, Robbie Alomar, Lofton, Nagy, Sabathia, and Gerut. I may be missing a few. But looking back on it, I'm a loser.

Scott Miles: I still haven't caught a foul ball yet, but if—or when—that day comes, it will certainly be one of my most treasured possessions. My favorite piece of baseball memorabilia is an autographed bat by Larry Doby.

My friend's dad is president of the Wahoo Club, and I won it in a raffle at one of their events. Definitely one of the prouder things I have in my collection.

Michael Taylor: I am not as big on memorabilia as I used to be, but I do own a couple of cool pictures. One being a limited-edition hand painting of Municipal Stadium that commemorated the last season. The other, a framed team photo of the 1995 Indians, with an AL Champions pennant inside.

I also have an autographed rookie card of Manny Ramirez that I have on a plaque on my basement wall.

But most of all, I cherish a ball that I received from Bartolo Colon one night while warming in the bullpen. At the time, I was just out of high school and spoke some Spanish.

I went down to watch him warm up from the picnic pavilion where we happened to have access to that night and got his attention. He threw me up the ball before going into the clubhouse, but would not autograph it for me. I was bummed, but excited at the same time. I will never forget that.

David Wiley: Never have had the privilege of catching a foul ball at a game. To me, that is the ultimate baseball memorabilia, probably just because it has eluded me all these years.

I have a bunch of Omar Vizquel cards that I happen to like, and an Oscar Gamble card with his giant 'fro sticking out of both sides of his batting helmet, which is a pretty cool card, and a number of Kenny Lofton cards. From back in the day, I have a couple of Buddy Bell cards I like, since he was one of my favorite players.

I got Gaylord Perry's autograph when he was with the Indians, but you can't hang that on a wall without some smart you-know-what spitting on it.

Most of my sports memorabilia is not baseball related, not because I wouldn't want baseball stuff. That was just the way it worked out from my access to sports as a kid.

Roto Chronicles: American League, July 28

Michael Taylor — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 13:28:22 -0400

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B—DET (UP) Cabrera posted consistently good numbers over the first three months of the season, but had yet to really put together a run of great numbers. He is currently on a nine-game hitting streak, and during the month of July is hitting .341 with six home runs and 26 RBI. Look for Cabrera to continue this and post a better second half of the season. His contact rates are up this year while his BABIP has decreased. This should level out, and we should see a slight increase in batting average for the remainder of the season. He is also experiencing some bad luck with his HR/FB rate of 13 percent, which usually ranges around 17 percent. Look for an average around .300 with another 12-13 home runs and 40 RBI this season.

Robinson Cano, 2B—NYY (UP) As good as Cabrera has been of late, Cano has been even better. Hitting just .246 at the All-Star break, Cano is in the midst of an eight-game hitting streak, entering Sunday night, that has shot his average up to .270. Traditionally a second-half hitter, he is again living up to the numbers. During this streak, Cano has seven multi-hit games and is hitting .514 with three home runs and 10 RBI. Even with the first-half slump, Cano’s contact rates are up, striking out just eight percent of the time, and his line-drive rates are up from last season, 20 percent from 16 percent. With this said, his BABIP has dropped nearly 60 points to .272 this season. This should not be the case, and this will regress upwards and likely get Cano back to at least the .290 mark by season's end.

Alex Rios, OF—TOR (UP) With just four home runs at the All-Star break, from a guy who hit 24 last season, it didn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Rios would hit more in the second half. Well, he only needs one more to make that statement true, and we're just under two weeks into the second half of the season. Rios hit two home runs on Saturday to give him four since the All-Star break and eight total. With the home runs now coming, his line-drive rate is still a very good 21 percent, and Rios is still stealing bases (now 27). Look for him to again put himself into the upper echelon of American League outfielders by season's end.

Jeff Clement, C—SEA (DOWN) Clement has yet to live up to the hype. He hit .337 with 14 home runs in AAA Tacoma this season, but has yet to crack the Mendoza line in Seattle. Clement is hitting just .171, with an uncharacteristic 42 strikeouts in 117 at-bats, nearly doubling historic rates. Now, with a thumb injury suffered Thursday night, he is likely to sit out some time while it heals. Though, don’t push him aside just yet, he is still hitting for power when putting the ball in play. Plus, his .212 BABIP is not representative of his 22 percent line-drive rate. Once he works through this injury and gets more of his balls in play landing for hits, Clement could have a strong finish.

Jose Guillen, OF—KC (DOWN) Guillen hit .345 with seven homers and 25 RBI in June, but has hit rock bottom in July, with a .148 batting average, no home runs, and an OPS of .384. He is obviously not this bad, and to his defense, Guillen has suffered from some back spasms, neck stiffness, and a groin injury of late. He will recover, but a terrible 0.14 BB/K rate will continue to limit his upside. His on-base percentage is just .287, which will not cut it as a hitter that is depended on so much in the middle of the lineup. He should continue to pitch-in some homers with a decent 13 percent HR/FB rate, but watch him closely. And if your league uses OBP, you have a decision to make.

B.J. Upton, OF—TB (DOWN) Even though Upton is making progress with his plate discipline, his ridiculously high .399 BABIP of last season could not be sustained. Still hitting a solid 19 percent line drives, Upton’s BABIP is now a more sustainable .341, which, along with his 24 percent strikeout rate, has put his batting average to .270. Also too bad for Upton, his spike in power could not be sustained. Upton’s 20 percent HR/FB rate of 2007 has dropped to just over seven percent, giving him six home runs on the season. Look for him to rebound some in August, as he as cooled quite a bit over the past six weeks. Upton has hit just .227 since May 31.

Pitchers

Scott Baker, SP—MIN (UP) Scott Baker's ownership levels are finally jumping, as they should have already been. The Twins' right-hander now sits at 7-3—5-1 over his past seven starts. His ERA is a solid 3.38, and he has excellent command of the strike zone, with a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Baker has been the beneficiary of an 84 percent strand rate, but even so, his ERA should be no higher than four. Should he remain available in your league, add with confidence that you have acquired a great back-of-the-rotation fantasy starter. He won’t disappoint.

Cliff Lee, SP—CLE (UP) What a story Cliff Lee continues to be this season. All he continues to do is put up seven or eight innings a night, while allowing two or less runs. He also has 21 strikeouts to just one walk over his past 23 innings of work. And for the season, Lee is striking out six batters for every walk allowed, a truly remarkable stat. He also is—again—the league leader in ERA. All it took was for Justin Duchscherer to finally have a bad start. At 14-2, Lee is on pace to be the first Indians pitcher since 1974 to win 20 games. He also would likely give the Indians back-to-back Cy Young awards.

James Shields, SP—TB (UP) Shields is off to a fine start to the second half of the season. The Tampa right-hander has two wins, a 2.35 ERA, and a 0.78 WHIP in two starts after the break. This is by no means a hot streak; James Shields consistently puts up good numbers. All of his rates: walk percentage, HR/FB, strand rate, and BABIP, are very similar this season to his breakout campaign of a year ago. I am someone who desires consistency in a player and sees that as a definite added value. With this said, look for more of the same. Shields is 9-6 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP to date.

Zack Greinke, SP—KC (DOWN) Greinke’s terrific start has slowly reversed without exception. Here is a listing of his monthly ERA: 1.25, 4.38, 5.25, 6.14. We should expect a reversal in the near future, as his skill level for the season says he is supposed to be right at his 4.06 ERA, but as we have seen in his past, Greinke can all of the sudden lose it on the mound. Though, the 2006 season’s struggle was due to many reasons, including a spike in his walk rate. Even with his recent downturn, Greinke continues to post a walk rate under three per nine innings. Thus, with the remaining numbers also similar to last season, look for a rebound to occur soon, maybe as soon as his next start in Oakland where he has a career 3-1 record and 2.18 ERA.

Todd Jones, CL—DET (DOWN) A changing of the guard is occurring in Mo-town. Todd Jones is out and Fernando Rodney is in. I was all set to explain how this was about to happen, but Leyland beat me to my deadline. Though I, like most, expected Zumaya's name as the replacement. Anyway, Jones had blown two of his last four save opportunities, including one Friday night against the White Sox in an important series for the Tigers, that sealed the deal. It was amazing that he had survived as long as he did. His line-drive-rate allowed is over 23 percent and he is walking more batters than he strikes out, which isn’t a lot. All in all, Jones had 18 saves, with an ERA of 4.99 and a high 1.54 WHIP as the Tigers' closer this season.

Kevin Slowey, SP—MIN (DOWN) As fast as the Slowey bandwagon filled up, it has emptied just the same. After running off a streak of four straight quality starts, Slowey has three poor starts, including two against formidable lineups in New York and Detroit. Over his past three starts, Slowey has an ERA of 9.00, as the home runs have returned. Slowey has allowed a home run in each start. Though, he is not exactly keeping runners off of the bases either, allowing 25 batters to reach via walk or hit over these 15 innings. It is looking like Slowey may be a matchup pitcher for the time being, until he catches fire again.

INJURY REPORT

We found out over the weekend that Jays’ starter Dustin McGowan is now going to have season-ending surgery to his shoulder. What was also found out is that McGowan was pitching with a partially torn rotator cuff as well, which was diagnosed at the end of last season.

The White Sox have recalled Josh Fields from AAA Charlotte to fill in at third base while Joe Crede is on the disabled list. Crede’s back is again ailing. There is no timetable set for a return. Also, more on Fields later under the Futures Market heading.

The White Sox also placed set-up man Scott Linebrink on the disabled list, with right shoulder inflammation. The extent of the injury will not be known until he receives an MRI.

Nagging injuries are starting to multiply on the Rangers’ Milton Bradley. The latest happened when he was hit on the forearm by a pitch on Wednesday night. He was listed as day-to-day, but returned Friday night as the DH. Bradley has also suffered from knee tendonitis and sore quads over the past month. Just keep an eye on him.

The Twins' Carlos Gomez crashed into the outfield wall in Cleveland Friday night, injuring his back. He was taken to the hospital and released after receiving a shot for the pain. He will likely sit for a bit while he heals up, but don’t expect a DL stint.

Cleveland welcomed back Fausto Carmona Saturday night against the Twins. Carmona, who was out of the rotation since May 26, struggled early and could not make it out of the third inning, giving up nine runs.

The Angels expect Jered Weaver to be able to make his next scheduled start tonight in Boston. Weaver left his last start against Cleveland in the fourth inning because of a knot on his right shoulder blade. Weaver is 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA over his past five starts.

Oakland reliever Joey Devine, who is recovering from an elbow sprain, is set to begin a minor-league rehab assignment tonight. If all goes well, he will be activated later in the week. He may even become the A’s closer if Huston Street is traded this week.

Frank Thomas has been testing his ability to run on his recovering quadriceps while continuing to take batting practice. He should begin a rehab assignment by the weekend, with a possible return next week.

Bad news for Eric Chavez. A poor throwing session while testing his injured shoulder is leaving his future at third base in serious doubt. He stated that he is going to continue focusing on his offense and will likely switch to first base.

Kevin Millwood and his groin are at it again, shelving the right-hander for another couple of weeks on the disabled list. It shouldn’t really matter in terms of fantasy, as you shouldn’t have him on your roster anyways. And if you do, shame on you.

Also on the Rangers’ front, C/3B Gerald Laird returned to the lineup on Sunday, going three for four. Laird missed a month with a hamstring injury. Manager Ron Washington said that Laird will receive most of the playing time behind the plate.

The Royals placed a couple on the disabled list, Jimmy Gobble and Joey Gathright. You should only take notice of Gathright, whose speed will be unavailable for a few weeks. Adjust accordingly, there has to be some other cheap speed to replace him for the time being.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

Melvin Mora, 3B—BAL Still widely available, Melvin Mora can fill in at third base for your team if you lost Joe Crede. Mora has hit .325 with five home runs and 24 RBI in July. With his recent offensive surge, he now has a very respectable 15 home runs, 63 RBI, and 50 runs scored. The batting average is just .249, but a low BABIP is mostly to blame. Mora continues to hit about 20 percent line drives, which should raise that number up along with his batting average. A .265 batting average and 20-25 home runs are definitely feasible.

Denard Span, OF—MIN With the recent struggles of Carlos Gomez, and the injury to Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span is getting plenty of playing time and is taking advantage. The former first-round draft pick is hitting .343 in July with 14 runs scored. He will not hit for any power, but if you need some speed in your lineup, Span is a fine option. He has a combined 20 stolen bases on the season between Rochester and Minnesota. We obviously can’t expect this hot streak to continue, but a .280 average with a handful of steals is possible. And if your league uses OBP, Span has a good walk rate that should give an OBP around .350.

Francisco Liriano, SP—MIN Last call for the Twins' left-hander. I’d imagine he is completely gone from leagues, but if for chance he is still sitting on waivers in yours, do not hesitate to add him. Liriano is 10-0 with a 2.67 ERA, 80 strikeouts, and just 13 walks over his last 11 starts. No official word has been made on his promotion, but this should be the week. Whether it begins in the bullpen or not does not matter, a spot always opens up in a rotation for some reason and Liriano will fill it quite nicely.

David Purcey, SP—TOR Purcey earned his first career major-league win on Saturday with a victory over the Mariners. He threw six innings, allowed three runs on seven hits, but most importantly, walked only one. In his brief time up earlier this season, Purcey walked 11 in two starts. Though his minor-league track record the past two seasons suggest that he should walk about two-and-a-half runners per nine innings. With Purcey’s strikeout ability, he could be a great sleeper in the second half. In AAA Syracuse, Purcey was 8-6 with a 2.69 ERA and 121 strikeouts in 117 innings.

FUTURES MARKET

Nick Adenhart’s name has been linked in many trade rumors over the past few weeks. And you really have to wonder what value remains after such a terrible season. At AAA Salt Lake, Adenhart is striking out seven batters per nine innings while walking nearly four-and-a-half. This has been a major contributor in Adenhart’s 6-10 record and 6.18 ERA. If I were the Angels, I’d be looking at the options, too. His walks have increased at each level he has been promoted to.

A player to watch a few years down the road in Oakland is power-hitting first baseman Chris Carter. He has been referred to as a Jermaine Dye type of hitter. In high-A ball this season in Stockton, Carter is hitting just .261, but a good walk rate gives him a .361 OBP. Carter also has 27 home runs and 82 RBI. Carter was acquired in the Dan Haren deal from Arizona, and previously straight up for Carlos Quentin from the White Sox.

A former first-round draft pick in the 2005 draft, Trevor Crowe has finally worked his way up to AAA after a couple of seasons in AA Akron. Crowe could become an option in the Indians' outfield by the end of this season, depending on his success in Buffalo, likely as a September call-up. Crowe hit .323/.404/.485 in 198 at-bats with Akron this season. He also chipped in four home runs and 13 stolen bases. He projects as a possible leadoff hitter.

I usually don’t like to mention a major-league player in this section, but Josh Fields was just recalled late last week to replace Joe Crede. Fields was a big-time sleeper pick before the season started because of his power. Looking back now, you wonder if he should have even been viewed as such. Fields hit .248 with nine home runs and 30 RBI in 59 games with Charlotte. He has missed some time due to injury, limiting his numbers, but a 34 percent strikeout rate will kill any attempt to have a batting average. Assuming he gets regular playing time the rest of the season, Fields could get maybe 10 home runs, but don’t look for much if any batting average.

Ian Kennedy, remember him? He nearly pitched a no-hitter for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last week. An error with one out to go extended the inning to allow the following hitter to double in a run to tie the game. Kennedy finished with just that one hit allowed after striking out seven and walking zero. It was the second error of the night, which meant he really could have been going for a perfect game. Kennedy has a 2.88 ERA over his past five starts.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

Buy – Paul Konerko, 1B—CHW There is no doubt that Konerko is in the midst of his aging regression, but it seems to have accelerated this season beyond what should be expected. For starters, Konerko is continuing to show his usual eye at the plate, with a 0.65 BB/K ratio. He also is hitting 20.5 percent line drives. With that, his expected BABIP is to be .309. It is actually a very low .239, 70 points away from his expected rate. While I would expect it to be a little under because of the increase in groundballs hit by a slow-footed Konerko, it should not be that big of a disparity. By no means am I projecting Konerko to return to the glory days, but if you are in the need of some power at a very cheap cost, I bet Konerko could be had. I’d project around a .270 batting average and upwards of 10 home runs the rest of the way.

Sell – Francisco Rodriguez, CL—LAA I don’t suggest this to all, but if you are in excess of saves, own Rodriguez, and need help elsewhere, look to move him. K-Rod is in the midst of a historic run. With 43 saves, he is on pace to save 67, destroying Bobby Thigpen’s now 18-year-old record of 57 in 1990. It is even more remarkable when you look at his stats. He is actually having his worst season since taking the closers job over in 2004. Rodriguez is showing a drop in strikeouts due to a decrease in velocity, another increase in walks, now over five per nine innings, and an increase in line-drives allowed, which should raise a players BABIP (his has actually dropped substantially). To this point, his fielding independent ERA is listed as 3.62. His actual ERA is 2.29. Most of this difference is due to the luck on BABIP and the high walk rate. I’d suggest looking at moving him while he is viewed as the best fantasy closer on the market because of the saves. He’s already given you a season’s worth by the end of July.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL FIRST BASEMAN

1. Justin Morneau, MIN
2. Kevin Youkilis, BOS
3. Miguel Cabrera, DET
4. David Ortiz, BOS
5. Aubrey Huff, BAL
6. Jason Giambi, NYY
7. Carlos Pena, TB
8. Carlos Guillen, DET
9. Chris Davis, TEX
10. Casey Kotchman, LAA

For the National League and more news and history from Major League Baseball, visit SEAMHEADS.com

Jhonny Peralta: The Misconception of the Cleveland Indian's Shortstop

Michael Taylor — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 15:55:34 -0400

With his recent offensive surge, Jhonny Peralta has placed himself right into the spotlight, whether he likes it or not.

He is being portrayed as a leader on the field, even if he is not one off of it. Currently, the quiet shortstop is on pace to hit .267/.311/.488 with 28 home runs, 84 RBI, 44 doubles, and 100 runs scored. All this is from a 26-year old who is about to enter his prime years.

These are great numbers for a shortstop, and they are arguably the best in the American League. Just look around: Michael Young may have the best all-around game, with some power, speed, and great average, but Peralta has the best OPS (.799) of all AL shortstops.

He also has more than double the amount of home runs than any other AL shortstops.

So why the urges by fans for the Indians to trade him, as pointed out by Ron Vallo in a recent article on MVN’s Tribe Report?

He does not have a huge contract that the Indians need to part with. He cannot make any demands over the next three seasons as he is in the midst of a five-year contract that skips his arbitration years.

He is due a very cost-effective $3.4 million next season, $4.6 million in 2010, and $7 million as a still not 30-year-old in 2011.

These are very reasonable numbers that a team such as Cleveland must utilize from at least a few of their top players in order to remain competitive.

So, if he can hit like the best at his position, is young, and does not have a big contract, then what is it?

This is where the big misconception comes in. Defense.

The perception is that Jhonny Peralta is one of the worst defensive shortstops in Major League Baseball. He is seen as a guy who can’t get to balls in the holes, loses focus, makes errors, has a sub-par arm, you name it. While some of these may be true to an extent, Peralta numbers show a different story.

He is by no means one of the top shortstops with the glove, we know that by watching him day in and day out, but does he really hurt the team?

Jhonny is currently 10th in the majors in fielding percentage (.979) by a shortstop, third in range factor (4.77), and 11th in zone rating (.831). We all know what fielding percentage is, but range factor and zone ratings are newer defensive statistics that are not yet mainstream to the average fan.

Range factor is a measure of chances that a defender has during a game. It is calculated as (Putouts X Assists X Nine)/Total Innings Defended. So while it is not exclusively about range, at the heart of it, if you do have range, you will get to more balls and have more chances.

You could argue that his is higher because of the number of groundball pitchers on the Indians' staff, and you would have a solid point. But with Carmona and Westbrook on the DL, the two main groundball inducers have been gone the majority of the season.

Over the past two seasons, Peralta finished sixth in range factor in 2007, and third in 2006. I’ll take that.

The other stat, zone rating, is a creation of STATS Inc. It is a measure of the percentage of balls hit into a defenders zone that he actually fields. It is all measured by STATS Inc., based on in-game situations.

Based on this info, we should get a better determinant of Peralta’s range. And as stated, he is currently 11th in the league, out of 20 listed shortstops that have played 600 innings defensively.

This puts him right in the middle of the pack, not the bottom as is perceived. Defense can be misleading, sometimes a defender will make a diving stop and get praised for his amazing ability, but what we fail to realize is that he may have had to dive because of a lack of range.

Over the past two seasons, Peralta finished 20 out of 23 in 2007, and 17 of 24 in 2006.

These are more of what was to be expected based on our perception. Maybe all of the work Peralta has put in on his defense is now paying off this season. We know that he and Wedge clash quite a bit, as Wedge keeps pushing him to reach his potential.

Peralta is certainly showing improvement in this area of his game this season. Though the average fan cannot notice this change very easily, thus the perception remains unchanged.

Just for added measure, and because I like to bash Derek Jeter every time I can get, comparing Peralta to Derek Jeter defensively would be quite one-sided, right?

The perception of Derek Jeter is one of a tremendous Gold Glove talent. Yet looking at the stats provided by Baseball Prospectus, Jhonny Peralta is significantly better than Jeter in the field.

In a complex stat call “Rate”, which is a complete look at a fielder’s rate of production in terms of runs, Peralta is actually above average. An average player in this stat is said to be 100. Peralta, over his career, is calculated out as 110. Jeter is a 94.

The Yankee Captain is a below average defender? That’s what they say.

For further comparison, Orlando Cabrera, the 2007 Gold Glove recipient is a career 104.

Say what you will about this stat, but Baseball Prospectus does their homework and is known as the leader in player-evaluation methods.

So what is my point in all of this?

In a time of unknowns, as the Indians move forward into 2009, why would an organization that already has a known commodity at an important position such as shortstop want to trade Peralta?

To make room for a young unknown in Cabrera, whose defense is admittedly better, but whose lack of proven bat skills leave much more to be desired? The trade off makes no sense to me.

Peralta is, and should be, an important factor on this team moving forward. He is reasonably contracted to do so. He is at worst an average defender, though Baseball Prospectus says otherwise, and is putting up numbers offensively that rank among the leagues best.

Some may think that these numbers are out of his norm. Maybe the power a bit, but it is not inconceivable that we will continue to see that grow. Power tends to develop with age, well into a players prime as they mature.

Peralta is also cutting down on the strikeouts by nearly five percent this season. This is also a stat that is going the correct direction as a player ages.

Maybe the move to third base does make some sense. He could be a Joe Crede-type hitter without the amount of athleticism defensively that Crede brings to the table. But do we really want to see Peralta matched up in an infield with a light-hitting shortstop in Cabrera, a light-hitting second baseman in Barfield, and an average first baseman in Garko?

Maybe Garko does not play first next year, maybe Victor moves out from behind the plate to help protect against injury, and Shoppach plays every day, we don’t know how things will shake out at this time.

If that happened, I would be ok with the move, but with third-base prospect Wes Hodges nearing the major leagues, and both Cabrera and Barfield remaining as questions, Jhonny remains my choice at shortstop, at least through his remaining contract.

This is from someone who used to buy into these misconceptions and wished Jhonny gone. No more my friend.

Wahoo Weekly Report, July 24

Michael Taylor — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 15:44:59 -0400

Standings Report

Actual Record: 44-56, Last Place—13.0 Games BacK

Weekly Gain/Loss in division: No Change with a 3-3 record

Pythagorean Record: 51-49, 4th Place—7.0 Games Back

Whats Happening

The loss last Friday in Seattle was the Indians 10th straight road loss, longest such streak since 1991. The streak was snapped on Saturday with a 9-6 win that gave Jeremy Sowers his first major league win since May 24, 2007.

As noted by Matt Underwood during an STO broadcast, the Indians lead the league in margin of victory per win, yet still have a losing record. Another reason why the Indians are so far under their Pythagorean record.

Grady Sizemore hit his sixth lead-off home run of the season and 17th career lead-off home run on Tuesday night against Angel’s starter Jered Weaver. Can he someday catch Rickey Henderson’s 81? Probably not, but if he stays at lead-off through his career, you never know.

Tom Mastny served up a Grand Slam to Jeff Mathis of the Angels on Wednesday, the 10th one against the Indians staff this season. Can we just send him back to AAA now? He is not a major league pitcher.

Is it just me or does Sal Fasano’s mustache give him super powers? I certainly did not expect a .391 OBP from a lifetime backup catcher acquired from AAA. Though in reality it is only 20 at-bats. Certainly not enough to get too excited about, but I’m just saying.

Astro-Cab returned to the Tribe this week from his stay in Buffalo where he tore the cover off of the baseball. Problem is, this isn’t Buffalo anymore. Cabrera is four for nineteen since the recall and has struck out seven times.

Is Andy Marte as bad as many believed him to be? While he is not hot by any means, Marte has quietly hit .265 over his past nine starts with two home runs and three RBI. He is also playing some solid defense with a .976 fielding percentage making two errors in 85 chances.

Have you noticed that Rafael Perez is back to his dominant self? As only a pitcher in the setup role can, Perez has quietly rolled off a run reminiscent of his amazing 2007 season. Over his past 12 appearances spanning 13 innings, Perez’ ERA is 2.07 with a 0.84 WHIP.

Another reliever on fire is Edward Mujica. He has zero runs allowed over his past 9.2 innings, giving up four hits, striking out seven while walking just one. I am hesitant to believe that this run is real based on his history, but he no doubt deserves an extended look in some pressure situations to find out.

Can we just give Cliff Lee the Cy Young award already? After another dominant performance on Sunday that resulted in Cliff’s fifth complete game of the season, his ERA “dropped” two one hundredths of a run to 2.29.

With the pace that he has set for himself, Lee will go 21-3 with 178 strikeouts, 32 walks, and a WHIP of 1.05. This would make Lee the first Indians pitcher to win 20 games since Gaylord Perry in 1974.

What to Watch For

The trade deadline looms next Thursday afternoon. A few Indians should be up to the highest bidder, including Casey Blake, Paul Byrd, Jamey Carroll, and David Dellucci. It is likely that only one of these will be dealt with Blake being the favorite.

Upwards of five to six teams are said to be interested in him including the Rays, Dodgers, Twins, and Mets. Though over the past few days, the Rangers’ Hank Blalock seems to be stealing some of the headlines from Blake as a third base option for these teams. In particular the Twins seem more interested in Blalock or even Adrian Beltre.

As reported by Sheldon Oeker of the Akron Beacon Journal, the Indians may look at demoting Aaron Laffey instead of designating Matt Ginter for assignment to make room for Carmona on the 25-man roster Saturday. Ginter has made two straight solid starts while Laffey is 1-5 with an 8.37 ERA over his past five starts.

Fausto Carmona’s return this Saturday. This is a story line that Indians fans must follow through the remainder of 2008. The Indians need Carmona to return to the rotation and throw strikes.

He doesn’t need to have the Cy Young caliber stuff he had last season, just pitch with better efficiency and give the Indians consistent chances to win ball games. We’ll see how game one goes against the Twins.

Will Ryan Garko get his playing time back and will David Dellucci sit the bench? Garko has six hits in his last 18 at-bats including three of the extra-base variety. We know that Garko has been streak this season, get him in as much as possible, especially instead of Dellucci who continues to be the best rally killer in the league.

Can Jhonny Peralta remain the offensive leader of the club? He is a career .286 hitter with five home runs and 21 RBI in 136 at-bats against the starting pitchers over the next two series.

Will Masa Kobayashi get any save opportunities? Since taking over the job on Jul. 4, Masa has a total of two chances, converting both.

The Indians against the AL Central. The Indians are a combined 13-24 against the AL Central this season, making up the majority of the reason why they are 12 games below .500. Can they turn it around against the upcoming schedule of Minnesota, Detroit, and Minnesota again?

Down on the Farm

Tony Lastoria noted this week in an outstanding article that the Indians are likely not to promote AAA pitching star David Huff.

What it comes down to, he says, is that because Huff missed two-thirds of last season with a UCL sprain in his pitching elbow, the Indians will limit Huff to maybe 50 more innings this season. This would give him roughly 160 on the year.

Also of note, Lastoria said if the Indians promote Huff, the Indians will have to place him on the 40-man roster, he would lose a season of minor league options and make one more player vulnerable in the Rule V draft this off-season.

Matt LaPorta has appeared in 11 Aeros games since being acquired in the Sabathia deal. He is hitting .214 with one home run and six RBI. I wouldn’t worry too much. A lot has been going on in this man's world.

He was part of the biggest trade of the season, lost his baggage on the trip to Akron, played a few games with the Aeroes before going to New York in the Futures game, then came back to Akron, and has been announced as a player for Team USA next month in the Olympics.

For an interview with LaPorta click here. For his journal click here.

Lonnie Chisenhall is off to an OK start in Mahoning Valley. The first-round selection of the Indians is hitting .248 with a home run, 14 RBI, and five stolen bases. But he has a good eye at the plate for a young 19-year-old. He has struck out just 16 times in 129 at-bats while walking 12 times.

Quote of the Week

Eric Wedge on the Indians Bullpen—"A lot would have to happen with the people we have down there now for us to not go out and get somebody. Somebody would have to grab the role, really lock into it and prove that we can count on them. That's a lot to happen in two and a half months."

Not sure what to take from this, but its worth a read. I seriously don’t see the Indians spending upwards of $65 million on a Francisco Rodriguez this off-season with the big market Angels not able to resign him, but you never know. If the Indians are to contend as they say they will next season, a closer is a must.

Tribe Talk: Is It Time To Question Eric Wedges’ Future As Indians Skipper?

Michael Taylor — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:50:24 -0400

Welcome to Tribe Talk, a season-long look at the trials and tribulations of the Cleveland Indians from the views of the loyal Tribe fans here on Bleacher Report.

I would like to thank my fellow Indians community leader, Nino Colla, and this week’s participants: Samantha Bunten and Dr. Jeff Poove’ for pitching in their takes.

This discussion is not just meant for the included Indians fans. Please feel free to comment on any of the questions or any of our answers below.

This week we highlight a discussion about Eric Wedges’ accountability for the poor 2008 season and his job security beyond this season. Also on topic this week is a discussion of the AL Central divisional race, whether the Indians can receive anything for Paul Byrd, and any favorite All-Star moments.

Without further ado, let's talk Tribe!

The rumblings about Eric Wedge's managerial ability are becoming louder and louder. What is your opinion of his ability to manage a team? Is he even to blame this season?

Samantha Bunten: Wedge has the potential to be a great manager someday. In AAA. He just isn't cut out to be a major-league manager. I would never blame Wedge for everything that has gone wrong this season.

I just don't think he has what it takes to succeed as a manager in the big leagues. He is good with young players, he's patient, and I believe he has a good understanding of the mechanics of baseball. All of which would make him a great minor-league manager.

Alas, he is also passive and slow to change, lacking the intuitive qualities necessary to be a good manager in the majors.

Nino Colla: Look, Eric Wedge has his down points. He isn't the greatest manager in the world. But right now, he is the man for the job. I'm not going to lump too much of the blame on to him for this year. He can't control the injuries.

And while I won't agree with some of the moves he's made, he has done the best job he possibly can.

As for his ability to manage, look, Wedge is a go for broke, stick with your guns, play the obvious choices-type of manager. That isn't my type of manager, but last year it worked. Whatever. The one issue right now is more with Shapiro, but Wedge can control this.

Why is David Dellucci still getting at-bats? Can someone explain this to me? He has no future on this team, yet he continues to take up that precious DH spot. Chootierrez and Garko need those at-bats, not Dellucci.

I'm hoping Josh Barfield's return will kick Dellucci off the roster. I can't stand to see Wedge waste valuable time by playing him.

Pretty soon Travis Hafner will return and before you know it, you lost all chance to give someone else extra time.

Doctor Poove’: As I have stated before, I have never been an Eric Wedge supporter or an Eric Wedge detractor. I think he does a lot of things well. The taking-one-series-at-a-time mentality, standing behind his players, and keeping things in house are all things I like about Uncle Eric.

Where he frustrates me are some of his game-to-game strategies. He is stubborn to a fault with veteran players, which I think holds some of the young guys back a little. Look how long it took Andy Marte to get some serious PT, and look at the fact that David Dellucci is STILL in the lineup.

Even in the bullpen, Rafael Betancourt still gets called on in tight situations, when he has been an absolute train wreck most of the year.

He also does himself no favors with his Mr. Roboto personality. Listen, I don't want him to be Ozzie Guillen, but a little emotion here or there helps. How many batters do the Twins need to hit before we plunk someone back?

I applaud Uncle Eric for taking the high road when others don't, but he has to judge the pulse of the team and maybe a little more fire here or there would keep things lively.

Uncle Eric can't play the games. He can't be blamed for the injuries to four key players or the fact that almost all of the secondary guys on the team have all bombed collectively in 2008. More of the blame falls on Mark Shapiro for assembling this team and failing to make it better in the offseason.

How Wedge handles the rest of 2008 and how the Tribe does in 2009 will determine his fate.

How many hitters have to bomb and how many runners that are sent from third have to get thrown out at the plate before a move has to be made.

I am not saying Derek Shelton and Joel Skinner are the cause of all the team's problems, but when this happens on a regular basis, you have to evaluate everybody. These are things that fall under Wedge's responsibilities.

Wedge, for the most part, is not to blame for 2008. However, he should be under the microscope in 2009. The team's failure to perform in the clutch in 2005 and 2007, and their total collapse when they have had high expectations like in 2006 and 2008, warrant that.

Michael Taylor: Being able to gauge a manager's impact on a team is very tough to do. Is the team this bad, is it bad because of injuries, or are the Indians underperforming because of managerial decisions?

While I am not a big believer of Eric Wedge and his ability to manage (he does tend to stick with players a little too long), I do believe that he cannot be judged by this season alone.

True, the team was not playing up to par at the outset of the season, before guys landed on the DL, but what we did not know at that time was that multiple players were already injured and fighting through the pain. The three that come to mind are Martinez, Hafner, and Borowski.

This led to the offense becoming a joke as the key No. 3 and No. 4 hitters were nonexistent, and Borowski was lit up like the Fourth of July. This set the stage for a rough season that the Indians could not recover from.

I think next year will be the most important season in Eric Wedge's managerial career. Assuming that the team gets back to full strength, and they continue to lose, then yes, he should begin to be held accountable. But right now, it is really hard to say. There were no bullets in the gun.

As we enter the second half of the season, which team in the AL Central do you see winning the division?

Samantha Bunten: I'm going to hope it's the Twins, just because I hate them a little bit less than I hate the White Sox. Realistically, it could go either way. The Twins are a young, energetic team that looks like they want it more, and that could be enough in a race this close.

In the end, I doubt it will matter, as I don't think either of them has enough depth and talent to get out of the first round of the playoffs.

Nino Colla: I like the White Sox. But fear not, Twins fans. I think both teams will make the playoffs. I don't trust the Yankees and that pitching the rest of the year, and I think Tampa Bay will lose ground. That leaves the two Central teams to claim the division and the wild card.

I think the Tigers will be around, but they too don't have the pitching to contend in this division. The White Sox and Twins both have a good mix going on, and you can't argue with the reason both will win games—their closers. Jenks and Nathan are 1 and 1a in the Central, and with those two at the back-end, the Tigers don't have a chance.

Doctor Poove’: The White Sox, unfortunately. It's all about pitching and the Tigers' pitching is suspect, while the White Sox' is better than the Twins. If Francisco Liriano comes back strong, the Twins may be able to hang around for a while, but I ultimately see the White Sox coming out on top.

I dislike all three teams, but the Twins top my list due to Ron Gardenhire's insistence for continuing to plunk Indians hitters for more years than I can remember and for no reason that I can remember.

Michael Taylor: The Indians of course! Seriously though, I like the Twins this season. While I did not project them to be this good, I did say in a preseason projection that they would at least finish .500.

They always find a way to win, and people did not give them enough credit for the amount of talent that they had entering the season. They have two of the league's best, Morneau and Mauer, in the middle of the lineup, maybe the best closer in the game in Nathan, and have solid young pitching with Baker, Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins, and are soon to add Francisco Liriano.

The White Sox themselves are having a terrific season, but I believe that they have already been the benefactors of the best pitching that the team could provide.

The rotation is in the midst of a regression. Gavin Floyd is not what his stats show, Jose Contreras is now on the DL, and can Mark Buehrle and John Danks get any better than right now?

The Sox are a station-to-station offense built around the home run. This could lead to some streakiness in the second half.

Also, count out the Tigers. They will make a run, but they do not have the pitching depth to become serious contenders.

The Indians will finally begin welcoming back some of the injured. Fausto Carmona will make one more rehab start this week before being activated early next week. What are your expectations of Carmona for the remainder of 2008?

Samantha Bunten: It will be great to have Fausto back in fighting shape, but I hope the Indians are careful not to push him too hard. He threw a lot of innings last year (215.0, 10th in the AL), and no doubt that contributed at least in part to the injury this season.

I'm not usually in favor of treating players with kid gloves, but Carmona is a big part of our franchise's future, and there is no reason to overwork him when we aren't even in the pennant race.

Nino Colla: Just pitch. While he will be considered our ace, he won't have to assume those responsibilities. There are three very capable pitchers on this staff that he can share the pressure with. It's a three-headed monster with Lee and Carmona being the two main starters. Fausto has settled in, and I don't think much will change for him.

Just stay healthy. I don't think we have anything to worry about with Carmona.

Doctor Poove’: Hopefully to stay healthy for the rest of the season, so the Tribe can see if he can be the No. 1 guy that they need him to be next year. Work him back into mid-season form, and maybe get some sort of moral boost for next year. With no CC Sabathia, and likely no Jake Westbrook, for 2009, they need Fausto to step it up big time.

Michael Taylor: All I want to see from Fausto is consistent command of the strike zone. I don't really care if he has an ERA as he had last year, which is not likely anyway.

He needs to come back, throw strikes, show he can go deep into games with reasonable pitch counts and give the Indians a chance to win. His BB/K cannot continue to be as poor as it was to start the season. He was very lucky to have his 3.10 ERA.

Player Debate of the Week: Paul Byrd

With the trade of Joe Blanton, with his 5-12 record and 4.96 ERA, do you see a market opening up for a Paul Byrd? Even if the Indians do not trade him, and if he signs elsewhere at seasons end, the Indians should receive a supplemental draft pick as Paul Byrd would be a Type B free agent. Do you find a trade now, or hold onto him and let him finish out the season?

Samantha Bunten: Byrd has done a nice job in his years with the Tribe, but he is not an integral part of the core of this team. He would be a good pickup for somebody needing a back-end starter. In my opinion, he would be almost as valuable as trade-rumor darling A.J. Burnett, and would probably come far cheaper.

If it were up to me, I would see what I could get for him now. If he doesn't fetch anything much in the trade market, only then would I let him finish out the season.

Nino Colla: Seeing as he would be a Type B free agent, let's take a sledgehammer to his leg. I mean, why not? It's the only way to get him off the team but actually keep him.

I'm kidding. But, you know it's tempting. I think if someone wants him and they'll give you a decent player, then why not. I'm really shocked the Phillies gave up what they did for Joe Blanton. He is young, but that was a very good group of prospects.

I don't know what the market is on Byrd. But either way, a draft pick isn't a bad return. We really don't have anyone to come up and pitch anyway. Jeff Weaver? Keep Matt Ginter? Does it really matter? None of those guys will yield us a draft pick.

Then again, he could just retire anyway.

Doctor Poove’: If they get the right offer then I think you have to trade him. Getting a known commodity over a draft pick is always a better option, IMHO.

I am not saying trade him for nothing, but if you can get value for him, then do it. Yes, it will create a hole in the rotation with CC Sabathia gone and Jake Westbrook on the DL for the year, but that's where the Matt Ginter's of the world come in.

Or it may be time to see what the David Huff's of the world can do. The rest of this season should be used to prep for 2009, nothing more of less.

Michael Taylor: The Blanton situation is a different situation all together, but it does show that there might be a willing taker out there for a two-month rental of that caliber. The Indians would obviously not receive the same bounty as the Athletics did, but even if the Indians could get a lower-level prospect I would take it.

Paul Byrd has no place on the Indians' roster past this season, so get what you can and move on. Unfortunately, than means Jeff Weaver and Matt Ginter will likely get starts as the fifth starter. But does it really matter at this point? It's not like Byrd is giving quality innings himself.

Fun Question of the Week:

The Indians had quite an All-Star week. Sizemore hit well in the Home Run Derby and scored the tying run in the game, while Lee pitched two scoreless innings as the AL starter. These moments made me wonder what other memories of All-Star week you may have.

Samantha Bunten: My favorite is definitely the 1997 All-Star contest at Jacobs Field, when Sandy Alomar hit a two-run shot in the bottom of the seventh, which would be the difference in the game. He also won the MVP award in front of a hometown crowd.

Well, that or watching the video of the 1970 All-Star Game where Pete Rose mows down Ray Fosse at the plate. Never gets old.

Nino Colla: Uh, well I don't remember it as it happened, but Sandy Alomar's home run was pretty special. I watched the game last year when STO replayed it. Great stuff even now. Victor Martinez's home run last year was pretty cool as well. There aren't many recent Indians moments since we sent guys like Bob Wickman for years.

Cliff Lee's performance will last with me for a while. Last All-Star Game in Yankee stadium, starting, with a spectacular first half. Lee's moment is pretty special if you ask me. I'm really happy for him.

A non-Indian moment that I remember was when the All-Star game came to PNC Park a few years ago. I had a chance to go to the Home Run Derby, but unfortunately it was a last minute thing, and when we found out, it was an hour before the thing was supposed to start.

Probably not what anyone would expect as far as a moment, but to this day I wish I could have gone.

Doctor Poove’: Anytime you have the greats of the game involved like they did at Yankee Stadium this year or at Fenway Park previously, it just gives me goosebumps. We often forget where we came from, and it's those moments that make us remember things we don't look back at enough.

Indians related, it has to be Charles Nagy singling in his at-bat in the 1992 All-Star Game. The facts that he was the first AL pitcher to do that since who knows when and that actually came around to score were priceless.

Michael Taylor: Hands down for me it was the 1997 All-Star game in Cleveland. I’m sure this will be everybody else's as well. I mean, how much better could it get? The Indians got to host the game, and hometown hero Sandy Alomar Jr. was the MVP. It truly was a memorable event.

I also went up to the FanFest at the Convention Center the weekend before the game and was able to get tons of autographs from former players and Hall of Famers. My brother even won tickets to the Home Run Derby and Celebrity Softball game.

Unfortunately, I was unable to go because he only won two tickets and I had to work that day. I wish I had found a way to call off. He was able to meet Drew Carey and see Mark McGwire hit a ball off of the scoreboard during batting practice.

Roto Chronicles: American League, July 21

Michael Taylor — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 05:44:10 -0400

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

Howie Kendrick, 2B—LAA (UP) The contact-hitting second baseman of the Angels has finally warmed up after suffering a series of injuries in mid-April that sidelined him for a good five to six weeks of the season. Upon returning, Kendrick struggled to a .247 batting average in June, but has picked it up in July, hitting .345, with his first two home runs of the season, and 13 RBI. Kendrick does not project to have much, if any, power, but his excellent ability to stroke base hits should keep him around the .300 mark while he pitches in a handful of steals.

Justin Morneau, 1B—MIN (UP) The Twins’ first baseman is having quite a month. Not only did he score the winning run for the American League in the All-Star Game, and very quietly win the Home Run Derby, but he has hit .400 with three home runs, nine doubles, 10 RBI, and walked 11 times to just four strikeouts to date in July. His OPS for the month is a league leading 1.227. He also enjoys a career .948 OPS in the month of July, by far his best monthly split. The main difference this season to 2007, when he hit just .271, is that he has hit more line drives. He is currently hitting 19.1 percent as compared to 15.9 percent last season. Even with the current rate, his batting average will be tough to maintain, but there is no reason that Morneau should not hit around .300 with 25-30 home runs and another 110-plus RBI.

Jim Thome, DH—CHW (UP) The 37-year-old slugging DH has found his stroke after hitting just .207 through May. Over the past six weeks, Thome has hit .317 with eight home runs and 24 RBI and is again showing the plate discipline that we have grown accustomed to from Thome. He has 24 walks to 31 strikeouts over these 147 plate appearances. For the season, he is now hitting .253 with 18 home runs and 53 RBI. The batting average should not increase much more, likely into the .260 range, but Thome should have a good shot at another 30-home-run season.

Mark Ellis, 2B—OAK (DOWN) Hot and cold has been Ellis’ season. He hit .261 in April, .213 in May, .274 in June, and again a cold .164 in July. And really, the good months haven’t even been that hot. A year after hitting .276 with 19 home runs, Ellis is hitting .236 with nine home runs. Even with the decline in production, there are positives, Ellis is stealing more bases and showing a career best BB/K ratio. These should be making Ellis a very valuable second baseman, but his BABIP of .249 is holding him back. This should not continue and allow Ellis to return into the .260s by seasons end.

Carlos Gomez, OF—MIN (DOWN) You can’t get much colder than Carlos Gomez is right now. He is just five for his last 52 at-bats, dropping his season average to .250. He also has no stolen bases since June 30, and has no home runs since June 6. This really should not surprise us as he is in his first full season and young players can be streaky. But one thing that was supposed to give Gomez value was speed, which is not supposed to disappear as it has. Gomez stole 17 bases through May, but has just four since. With his poor eye at the plate, and his low 16 percent line-drive rate, Gomez will be hard pressed to keep his batting average where it’s at. It is about time to make the call with Gomez and drop him, just as the Twins should do with him in the batting order.

Gary Matthews Jr., OF—LAA (DOWN) It’s also officially past time to drop Matthews Jr., if you haven’t already. An MRI revealed a slight tear in his left knee. Yet, the Angels are not looking to DL him. He will likely ride the bench, as he was struggling to stay in the lineup anyways, hitting just .235. I guess a 24 percent strikeout rate with a .288 BABIP do not match very well. With his decreased playing time in favor of Juan Rivera, and now the injury, it will be hard for Matthews to give much value the remainder of the season. And do not believe the hype again next year and draft him.

Pitchers

Joba Chamberlin, SP—NYY (UP) If there were any questions about Chamberlin’s transition into the rotation, there shouldn’t be any more. While he has yet to stretch out seven innings, Chamberlin has thrown at least six innings in four of his past five outings, and he has 17 strikeouts to just one walk over his past two starts. He just keeps looking better each time out as he settles into his new role. In nine starts, Chamberlin is now 1-1 with a 2.64 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 47.2 innings. The wins should start coming now that he is throwing enough innings to qualify for victories. He already has four no decisions in which he threw at least five innings.

Joe Nathan, CL—MIN (UP) Closers don’t get much better than Joe Nathan. The ace of the Twins' bullpen is again having a fantastic season. He’s earned 27 saves to go along with a miniscule 1.11 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. This is mostly due to an unsustainable 97 percent strand rate, but even so, he is inducing a career high 49.5 percent groundballs, holding the opposition to a .194 batting average, and striking out 10.18 batters per nine innings. It will be tough to duplicate his amazing 2005 and 2006 seasons, but Nathan is well on his way.

Tim Wakefield, SP—BOS (UP) The knuckler is having his best season in years. Through Sunday night's start in Los Angeles, Wakefield has a 6-7 record, but a very good 3.69 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Over his last 10 starts, he is only 3-4, but has an ERA of 2.56 and has pitched seven innings or more in nine of these 10 starts. I, however, remain skeptical of any knuckleballer when it comes to fantasy baseball. At anytime, his fortune will change. Looking into the stats, Wakefield has been rather lucky with BABIP against. It is a mere .237 as compared to his career .281 mark. But at the same time, I think to myself how odd the knuckleball is and how this maybe is how Wakefield’s season continues.

Scott Kazmir, SP—TB (DOWN) Kazmir came off of the disabled list on fire in May and into June, going 6-1 in his first seven starts, but has just one win and has thrown six innings only twice in seven starts since June 6. Over this time frame, Kazmir’s ERA is 4.97, as his walks have returned. Kazmir has a BB/9 of 4.26 over these starts. For the season, it remains 3.36, the second best in his career. This is likely just a slump that Kazmir does tend to go through at times. Ride it out with him, and he will be just fine. You never know when he will snap out of it and strikeout 12 while throwing a shutout. He will remain one of the top-10 pitchers in the league.

Jesse Litsch, SP—TOR (DOWN) Litsch has allowed 25 hits over his past 13.2 innings. This likely is just one of those bad stretches that a pitcher goes through. Heck, John Lackey is in the middle of one right now, but for Litsch, it serves as a reminder that he is still a very hittable pitcher who should not be viewed as an upper-tier guy, as he was looking like a month ago. Following his May 29 performance against Oakland, when he went seven scoreless innings, lowering his ERA to 3.16, Litsch has made eight starts. In these starts, he is 1-5 with a 5.82 ERA. He should steady soon, but be realistic in expectations the rest of the way.

Greg Smith, SP—OAK (DOWN) It has been a steady progression towards bad for Smith this season. His monthly ERA totals read 2.73, 2.97, 4.50, and now 6.14 in July. And what is worse is that over the past three starts, Smith has 12 walks to just five strikeouts. This factor was key to his successful start. Through May, Smith had 23 walks to 49 strikeouts. Until we see improvement here in at least consecutive starts, stay away. His 3.79 ERA does look nice, but remember that over his past nine starts, his ERA is 4.97, while he has walked more than he has struck out.

INJURY REPORT

The injury woes continue for the Toronto Blue Jays as both Vernon Wells and Dustin McGowan were placed on the disabled list over the past two weeks. Wells is down for the second time, this time with a hamstring strain that will sideline him four to six weeks.

McGowan did receive some good news on his shoulder injury. An MRI revealed inflammation and no tear to the rotator cuff. McGowan will be out for at least four weeks.

Just as the Jays lose a starter, another will return. Shaun Marcum is rumored to be starting on Tuesday night. In his first, and likely only, rehab start, Marcum was limited to four innings of work. He struck out six and did not allow any baserunners.

The White Sox placed struggling right-hander Jose Contreras on the disabled list with elbow tendonitis. He has quickly fallen after looking nearly unhittable three weeks ago. Look for Lance Broadway to be recalled from AAA to take his place.

David Ortiz is set to return this week from his wrist injury that has now sidelined him about six weeks. This will no doubt give his fantasy owners a much-needed boost as we enter the second half of the season. He is said to be in line for activation on Friday.

Positive news on a couple of injured Indians. Fausto Carmona threw a successful rehab start in AA, allowing one run in five innings. He will likely need just one more outing before being recalled the early next week. Victor Martinez is also healing and will start swinging a bat in the next week. He will be ready to go by mid-August.

The Mariners have continued to shutdown Erik Bedard due to a stiff shoulder and back. He was placed on the disabled list retroactive to July 5. He likely will now be out through July, with no set schedule for a return.

The Rays activated closer Troy Percival from the disabled list Sunday after two-and-a-half weeks on the shelf. Percival is being placed right back into the closers role full-time, so adjust your rosters accordingly.

The Yankees reportedly are getting close to calling it a season with Hideki Matsui and his sore knee. He was close to returning, but a setback is making surgery a more appealing option. Stay tuned. As one Yankee outfielder continues on the disabled list, another, Johnny Damon, is set to return this week. Damon has participated in batting practice and will likely be activated for this weekend’s Red Sox series.

Frank Thomas is nearing a return to the Oakland lineup from a quadriceps injury that has sidelined him since May 29. He began hitting some soft-toss and will begin live batting practice this week in hopes of returning by the end of the month.

The Jed Lowrie era may have officially begun, as Julio Lugo strained his left quad running out a grounder last Friday. This will sideline Lugo four to six weeks, giving Lowrie an extended look as the Sox shortstop.

The Twins’ Michael Cuddyer continues to have enough pain in his index finger that he has yet to begin any rehab, even though he is eligible to be activated from the disabled list. No timetable has been set for his return, which will allow Denard Span to continue getting a good look in Minnesota.

Mariners starting pitcher Carlos Silva left his start Sunday with lower back stiffness after serving up a home run. No word on if he will be forced to the disabled list. If he should, look for Ryan Rowland-Smith to make a couple starts.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

Hank Blalock, 3B—TEX After multiple tries, Blalock was finally activated from the disabled list. He is likely widely available in leagues and should be picked up as a cheap source of potential power, key word being potential. Because he had problems with carpal tunnel in his wrist, some power from his bat may be gone. Blalock is a good hitter who was having a fine season before going down in late April. As a refresher, Blalock was hitting .299 with three home runs and seven RBI. In his first action over the weekend, Blalock went one for nine. I wouldn’t view him as your starting third baseman for the rest of the year, but if he is truly healthy, he could be a sleeper for the second half.

Adam Lind, OF—TOR With the injury to Vernon Wells, Adam Lind is now playing everyday in the Blue Jays' outfield. In fact, Lind has hit safely in 12 of his last 14 games to raise his batting average to .261. He also has hit four home runs and 19 RBI. With Lind striking out just 11.3 percent of the time, he should be able to keep his batting average up in the .270-.280 range. He is currently hitting just 12 percent line drives, but in such a small sample size, that will increase towards his career 18 percent. He will not give many, if any, stolen bases, but look for Lind to be a solid fourth fantasy outfielder in mixed leagues.

Clay Buchholz, SP—BOS After his poor starts since being recalled from Pawtucket, this does not look like a typical player to recommend, but I am one who loves the talent of this kid, and that outweighs a few bad starts in my mind. Even with the 2-5 record and 5.88 ERA, Buchholz still shows a Fielding Independent ERA of 3.61. He has tremendous strikeout ability and is currently being burnt by a low strand rate of 60 percent. He is also walking 4.67 batters per nine innings, but that is likely not to continue, as his minor-league track record suggests that he should walk fewer than three. In fact, the last seven starts in AAA before his recall, Buchholz walked two or less batters each game. He likely was dropped over the weekend in leagues, and I’d take a flyer on him. The potential reward outweighs the risk.

Sean Gallagher, SP—OAK A key piece to the Rich Harden trade to the Cubs, Gallagher comes to the A’s with an immediate chance to be a major contributor. For whatever reason, Gallagher fell out of favor in the Windy City, even with solid production. For the season, Gallagher is 4-4 with a 4.20 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 70.2 innings. Moving to the Coliseum will only help his cause with its spacious playing field. Gallagher will not be an ace of the staff, but should be an average to above-average pitcher that will give decent strikeout totals. He should give about six wins and a 4.00 ERA the rest of the way.

FUTURES MARKET

Francisco Liriano is as ready as he could ever be, and reportedly is looking to file a grievance against the Twins for keeping him stashed in AAA. There is even a rumor that he would be brought up as a relief pitcher, as crazy as that sounds. As bad as this situation is, it does say a lot about the Twins’ starting rotation depth. Liriano has four straight quality starts for Rochester, allowing just a single run over 28 innings, while striking out 32 to just three walks. Grab and stash Liriano if he is somehow still available, the Twins have to promote him very soon.

Since the last Futures Market report two weeks ago, the American League has welcomed in a top power prospect in Matt LaPorta. LaPorta was brought over to the Indians in the Sabathia deal, as we all know. He is currently in AA Akron, where he has a .316 batting average, a home run, and five RBI in 19 at-bats since the acquisition.

LaPorta participated in the Futures game last week and will be a part of Team USA this summer in the Olympics.

Since falling to the fourth round of the 2007 draft, Jake Arrieta has impressed in his first year as a professional. After a successful winter league, Arrieta was slotted in high-A ball this season. In 19 starts, Arrieta has just a 6-5 record, but an impressive 3.06 ERA and 112 strikeouts in 106 innings. He also participated in the Futures Game and pitched a scoreless inning in relief.

In another trade between leagues, second-base prospect Adrian Cardenas was acquired by the Athletics in the Joe Blanton deal to Philadelphia. Cardenas was listed as the Phillies No. 2 prospect and projects as “a Ray Durham-type hitter, minus the stolen bases” according to Baseball Prospectus. For the season, Cardenas is hitting .307 with four home runs and 16 stolen bases.

The brand new No. 1 overall pick of the Tampa Rays from 2008’s draft, Tim Beckham, is currently beginning his career in Rookie League Princeton. The young shortstop is hitting .203 with one extra-base hit in 59 at-bats thus far in his professional career. It’s way too early to make any judgments on him, but it is worth noting once in a while the progress of this big-time prospect.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

Buy – Alex Rios, OF—TOR While I do not expect a huge turnaround in the second half of the season for Rios, for the right price, he could be a solid buy at this time. With a career high 24 stolen bases, Rios is running more than ever before. He should also start hitting home runs at any time. Rios has hit a career low five percent of flyballs over the fence, and is hitting just 33 percent of balls in play in the air. This is down from 44 percent last season. When he does start hitting home runs, I wouldn’t expect much more than 10 the rest of the way, but mixed in with the good speed, the additional power will make Rios a much more valuable fantasy player. Just don’t expect the batting average to climb back into the .300 range. Rios has been rather lucky with his .348 BABIP and is striking out at career high rates.

Sell – Armando Galarraga, SP—DET The wheels may be about ready to fall off. As I was writing this, Galarraga gave up three home runs to the Orioles on Friday night. For the season, he remains 7-4 with a solid 3.41 ERA in 100.1 innings. What is worrisome is that he is generally a less-than-overpowering starter who is historically very average. In fact, the lowest WHIP of his minor-league career was 1.32 in AA last season. Right now, his WHIP is at 1.20, but 1.52 over his past five starts with an ERA of 4.34. Also of note, his BABIP against of .246 is nearly 40 points lower than his expected BABIP of .282. This does not mean it will regress completely to that number, but the odds are that it will rise. This will lead to more hits and runs in the second half of the season, as his ERA should regress towards his Fielding Independent ERA of 4.59. Sell his current ERA and winning record on an improving Tigers ball club.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP-10 ELIGIBLE AL CATCHERS

1. Joe Mauer, MIN

2. Jorge Posada, NYY

3. A.J. Pierzynski, CHW

4. Victor Martinez, CLE - DL

5. Dionner Navarro, TB

6. Ivan Rodriguez, DET

7. Ramon Hernandez, BAL

8. Kelly Shoppach, CLE

9. Kurt Suzuki, OAK

10. Jeff Clement, SEA

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For the National League and more news and history from Major League Baseball, visit SEAMHEADS.com

Wahoo Weekly: Ryan Garko's Struggles

Michael Taylor — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 16:14:44 -0400

I first want to say that I am glad to be back and producing in the Cleveland Indians community here on Bleacher Report. Sometimes things in life take over and unfortunately this is something that got cut out.

It just so happened that this occurred going into and through the All-Star break, thus I really didn’t miss much other than the Indians sweeping the Tampa Bay Rays back into second place in the AL East.

It figures that when I couldn’t watch the team, they actually play good team baseball.

Anyway, this will be a new column that I plan on producing each week. I will be giving an overview of the Indians franchise from Ticket Sales, to minor league prospects, to updates on player transactions, to statistical analysis of players, to silly topics such as Sal Fasano’s mustache.

This week I will focus my attention on one player in particular that I feel is starting to get a bad rap as he struggles away 2008.

Ryan Garko has become the “poster boy” of this teams offensive struggles.

A season after hitting .289 with 21 home runs and 62 RBI in a semi-fulltime role as the Indians first baseman, Garko was being looked at as one of the main core of young developing Indians prospects.

He was going to take another step forward and be a steady right-handed power bat in the middle of the lineup that features mostly left-handed hitters.

Just 18 games into the season, there was reason to believe that this was going to happen. Garko was hitting .317 with two home runs and 11 RBI and had an OBP of .446. But this was not to last, Garko would go one for his next 29 at-bats and slump down to a season low .225 batting average to finish the month of April.

With a few more hot and cold streaks mixed in, he has yet to recover. He is hitting just .241 with seven home runs on the season.

Maybe this last Saturday against the Rays when he went two for four with a home run and five RBI will be the start to a positive second half of the season. Again, maybe not, Garko did have a six RBI night during that crazy road trip into Texas in early June.

But even during that hot streak, Garko did not show any power as he has the past two games.

Get this, from May 18 through July 11, Garko had a total of three extra-base hits. Three. It is downright perplexing when you think about it. Garko is a fine hitter who usually hits the ball up the alleys and with power.

This is an excerpt from the Baseball America Prospect Handbook from 2005 when Garko was making the jump to AAA:

“Garko climbed three levels and raked at every stop in 2004, hitting to all fields and showing above average power. He’s short to the ball with an efficient swing, helping him to adjust to any type of pitch and location.”

This sounds exactly like what we have witnessed from Garko over the past two seasons entering 2008.

He has a quick stroke with power, and has a decent eye at the plate. In fact, the later part of this is one area where a player has most control of while at the plate.

This is an area where Garko has shown much improvement this season, even reaching levels that were seen during his minor league career.

                          BB%       K%      BB/K
Minor Leagues    8.9%    17.2%       0.59
2006 – CLE           7%       20%        0.38
2007 – CLE   6.6% 19.4%       0.36
2008 – CLE         7.9%    16.2%   0.53

If we were truly witnessing a decline in a players’ talent, this would be one area to look. But as we see, he has actually improved and given himself more opportunities with balls hit into play to produce base hits, which is where the numbers become even more perplexing.

Another stat that I love to watch for is batted ball info and how it has translated into a player’s success or failure. If a player has a tremendous batting average, but is not hitting very many line drives, he may be showing some luck because of the variability of balls hit into play.

The same hold true for home runs with the home runs per fly ball (HR/FB) stat. While a player does have a talent level in his ability to hit home runs, the percentage of fly balls that become home runs can vary from season to season.

Lets look at Garko’s batted ball stats.

             LD%      GB% FB%      HR/FB%    xBABIP      BABIP    AVG
2006    16.6%    42.4%    41.1%       11.3%        .285        .333      .292
2007    18.6%    37.7%    43.8%       12.2%        .292        .322      .289
2008    18.6%    39.3%    42.1%        6.7%       .293        .266      .241

A few things should stand out here as you review the data. Ryan Garko is hitting the ball just the same as he did last season, but the same balls in play are giving him an unfair shake as his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is way under the expected result of .293.

Plus, his power has all but disappeared, which should not happen to a 27 year-old in his prime.

Maybe this is his regression towards the mean for all you stats buffs out there. Maybe I’m trying to read too much into it.

But the numbers do say that Garko over-performed based on his BABIP results the past two seasons and because it variable, this stat will generally be fairly close to each other over the course of a career.

Looking one step further an even more perplexing stat line appears.

                                       AVG   OBP SLG OPS
Bases Empty – Career    .277    .341    .464    .805
Bases Empty – 2008      .210    .279    .299    .578
Runners On – Career      .272    .350    .414    .764
Runners On – 2008        .276    .359    .410    .769
RISP – Career                .280    .366    .430    .796
RISP – 2008                   .293    .402    .451    .853
RISP w/2out – Career    .287    .403    .481    .883
RISP w/ 2out – 2008     .303    .477    .545    1.023

Indians fans know of Ryan Garko generally as a clutch hitter, and these stats show that as the situation increases in importance, Garko improves. But what is most bizarre is the production with nobody on base this year.

All other situations are very similar, with some improvement actually except this one. I do not know of any way to say why this has happened, but this is a trend for the whole team.

The Indians as a team are hitting just .234 with nobody on base, but .271 with runners on. That makes it very hard to start any rally’s to consistently score runs, thus the Indians are ninth in the league in scoring.

Take from this analysis what you want, but looking over the numbers, I am not one who is down on Ryan Garko’s ability to be a major league regular.

He is having a terrible year with luck on balls in play during a season when he is actually showing some improvement in some key areas. This may last the rest of the season, it may not.

His skill set has not eroded. He will come around, hopefully sooner rather than later. Garko does have extra-base hits in two straight games entering the break.

While I do not believe that Garko will ever be that elite American League first baseman that consistently hits 30-plus home runs, he is a perfect guy to be a holdover until somebody of greater ability takes his position, whether that be Matt LaPorta or even Beau Mills over the next year or two.

However it works out, Garko is a guy who should hit around .270 with 20-25 home run potential for the next four to five years before he hits free agency in 2013.

Whether the Indians benefit from his production over this time is to be seen, I just hope that the Indians do not sour on Garko too fast and get little in return.

Wait, what am I saying, this is the organization that keeps waiting on Andy Marte to develop, Garko will be just fine.

Roto Chronicles: American League, July 14

Michael Taylor — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 05:19:47 -0400

It’s a rite of summer, every year we fans get to vote for who we want to see in the All-Star game. Some of us punch the little holes out on a ballot card for each player on our favorite team, while other fans vote for which player they believe to be the best at his position.

And then some of us think to ourselves, “Ballot card?” We vote on MLB.com.

Regardless of how you voted for the All-Star Game, if there were a game based in the fantasy world, this would be my ballot.

AL Roto All-Star Team

Joe Mauer, C—MIN While tempted to go Dioner Navarro for the value that he has given owners this season as a typically un-drafted catcher, the huge difference in the runs scored category was enough for me to offset this.

On the season, Joe Mauer has scored 58 runs to Navarro’s 25. This is a huge difference, and when you add those runs to a batting average of over .320, you have a very valuable catcher. I’d even look for some more power to come from Mauer in the second half of the season. His HR/FB rate is at a career low 6.3 percent at the moment.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B—BOS Youkilis just beat out another Twin, Justin Morneau for the starting first baseman nod both here, and on the actual All-Star team. My final decision came down to the extra value that Youkilis has given owners over Morneau this season. Drafted rounds later, Youkilis has posted very similar numbers to Morneau, hitting .314 with 15 home runs, 63 RBI, and 56 runs scored. But from here on out, I am watching Miguel Cabrera at this position. I believe he is about to have a monster second half.

Ian Kinsler, 2B—TEX As stated last week in the regular column, Kinsler has by far and away had the best season of any AL player to this point of the year. He is the ultimate stat-sheet stuffer, and wasn’t even regarded as the top player in the league at his position coming into the season. Kinsler has filled out all five categories, leading the league with his .337 batting average and 84 runs scored, to go along with a very good 14 home runs, 58 RBI, and 23 stolen bases. I’d continue to expect more of the same for the remainder of the year.

Alex Rodriguez, 3B—NYY This was the toughest position to pick. I was torn between a new kid, and a future Hall of Famer. In the end I chose Rodriguez, just for the simple fact that he is still the most dominant player in the game. If you look at his stats, .312, 19 home runs, 53 RBI, 13 stolen bases, and 53 runs scored, would you have thought that he missed three weeks to the season?

I love Longoria and what he has done for himself and the Rays, but I can’t leave off the best player in the game from an All-Star team. Even if he was first rated at the beginning of the season and is not at the moment based on Yahoo, there is a reason that he was and probably will be again by seasons end. He is that damn good.

Michael Young, SS—TEX Where have all the shortstops gone? This was another tough choice, but because of how bad this position has been in the American League. Do I put Jhonny Peralta on this team because he leads AL shortstops in home runs, but has a sub par .260 average? Or do I go more with the all-around game of Michael Young, even though he is not overwhelming in any category?

I went Young because he just does what he does. He is a hit machine that continues to put out .300 seasons and give solid peripherals. On top of his .302 batting average, Young has 63 runs scored, 7 home runs, 52 RBI, and 6 stolen bases.

Josh Hamilton, OF—TEX Hamilton is the first player in the league to have at least 90 RBI entering the All-Star break since 2003 when Carlos Delgado and Preston Wilson both accomplished this feat. His 95 RBI places him fifth all-time entering the break. Add in a .310 batting average and 21 home runs to a guy drafted late as a sleeper pick, and you have yourself the one of the best values from this seasons’ drafts.

We’ll see if he can continue this the rest of the way, as he has yet to play a full season. But if he stays on the field and healthy, I don’t see any reason not to believe that it will continue.

Grady Sizemore, OF—CLE Sizemore is one of two players, along with the Marlins’ Hanley Ramirez, to have at least 20 steals and 20 home runs on the season. This puts him 11th in terms of Yahoo fantasy rankings and a definite fantasy star.

Sizemore was drafted higher in leagues, making it tough to meet or exceed expectations, but he is already close to doing just that. Sizemore is very close to matching his preseason projections in both home runs and stolen bases at just the All-Star break.

As soon as he gets that .273 batting average to climb higher, he will be the best outfielder in terms of fantasy production in the American League. Assuming he is not there already.

Carlos Quentin, OF—CHW If you didn’t get enough value from Josh Hamilton, how about an un-drafted outfielder who is currently second in the league with 22 home runs. Carlos Quentin has catapulted his career after just making the White Sox roster out of Spring Training. Playing in “The Cell” has definitely helped Quentin, but the fact that he has a higher batting average and half of his home runs on the road shows that he is not just the beneficiary of home-field advantage.

He is healthy and showcasing what he can do, but I am still cautious to his poor 13.7 percent line-drive rate. A slump could be waiting to happen, but again, he could raise that rate up in the second half and raise his average right along with it.

Milton Bradley, DH—TEX If you happened to take that flyer on Milton Bradley in the draft or on waivers early in the season, congratulations. Bradley is enjoying his finest season as a big leaguer, and is the only American League player to have an OPS of at least 1.000. For the year, he is hitting .316, has hit 19 home runs, and driven in 57 RBI.

The key to his season has been his ability to stay on the field. There have been some bumps and bruises along the way, holding him out of a few games, but being able to hit every night has been a big boost.

Cliff Lee, SP—CLE When talking fantasy value and production, Cliff Lee has stood out in both categories this season. Lee likely went un-drafted in every preseason draft in the country, but has silenced critics by posting not only a career year, but also the best pitching line in the league.

Lee won his 12th game of the season Friday night, and should have at least two to three more if the Indians gave the proper run support. He also has a superb 2.31 ERA, second in the league to Justin Duchscherer, and 106 strikeouts to just 20 walks.

Even on a bad Cleveland team, he has to be the early front-runner for the Cy Young award.

Justin Duchscherer, SP—OAK Just like Lee, the “Duke” went un-drafted in leagues across the country. He was in the midst of a conversion from being a successful set-up man into his new role in the starting rotation.

Duchscherer is 10-5 in 16 starts, with a league leading 1.82 ERA in 108.2 innings of work. Where he is lacking to Lee is in the strikeout department. Duchscherer is just striking out just 5.47 per nine innings for a total of 66. But there is no denying his value given to owners to this point of the season. We’ll see how his arm reacts down the stretch.

Being an owner, I am hoping his best continues.

Roy Halladay, SP—TOR Halladay continues to be the workhorse of the American League and has returned his production to elite levels. He has thrown a league-high 146.1 innings with an ERA of just 2.71. Not only is he throwing consistently each time out, Halladay’s strikeouts have returned to positive levels of 7.44 K/9 to go along with impeccable control, 1.29 BB/9 and terrific groundball tendencies.

Drafted typically in the sixth or seventh round, Halladay is giving first and second-round production. I’d expect more of the same in the second half. He’s been here before.

Joe Saunders, SP—LAA In a developing trend of American League starters, another All-Star selection went un-drafted in leagues. Saunders was more the speculative type of pick early in the season, with teammates John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar on the shelf to start the season. Saunders stepped into a leadership role in the Angels rotation and has not let go.

Saunders is tied for the league lead in wins with 12, and has a 3.07 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He certainly does not profile into the mold of an ace starter with his 4.71 K/9, but he has held opponents to a very low 13.8 percent line-drive rate, which has aided in his .236 BAA.

John Danks, SP—CHW This last spot was very tough, and a few guys nearly made it, even after missing a month of play, but one player has been a tremendous boost not only for his team, but fantasy teams everywhere.

Un-drafted, with the fourth-best ERA in the league of 2.67, I chose John Danks. He has just seven wins, but has completely outperformed teammate Gavin Floyd in every other way. Danks has a solid 3.03 K/BB ratio to go along with his newfound groundball tendencies, 46.7 percent.

This has led to a much more manageable home runs against total of eight as compared to 28 during his rookie campaign of 2007. While he may not be one of the top five at the end of 2008 or in the future, right now, Danks has cracked my top-five All-Star team.

Mariano Rivera, CL—NYY What is there to say other than that Mariano Rivera continues to be the best relief pitcher in the game today. Just when you think that his age might be slowing him down, he goes out and posts ridiculous numbers that again make you say, “Wow”.

While he is not even close to Francisco Rodriguez in saves, to me, a guy who has an ERA plus WHIP of 1.70 is just down right filthy. That much success will no doubt help keep your ratios down, while also posting a ridiculous 50:4 K/BB ratio. While the name of the game for relievers is saves, sometimes there is more to desire

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Tribe Talk: CC See-Ya

Michael Taylor — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 14:48:16 -0400

Welcome to Tribe Talk, a season-long look at the trials and tribulations of the Cleveland Indians from the views of the loyal Tribe fans here on Bleacher Report.

I would like to thank my fellow Indians community leader, Nino Colla, and this week’s participants: Scott Miles and David Wiley, for pitching in their takes.

This discussion is not just meant for the included Indians fans. Please feel free to comment on any of the questions or any of our answers below.

Since we last met, a lot has happened. The Tribe has continued to lose every game over the past week, they designated closer Joe Borowski for assignment, they traded pitching ace CC Sabathia and signed journeyman starting-pitcher Jeff Weaver.

All of this and more, including some favorite CC moments, are thrown in this week. Without further ado, let's talk Tribe!

Well, now that the season is over for the Indians, what goals would you set for the team as they ready themselves for 2009?

Nino Colla: Trade Casey Blake, find out about Andy Marte, get Michael Aubrey and Ryan Mulhern up to increase their value (with LaPorta on his way, neither are needed), ditch Byrd and Dellucci, and clear up all your players who are out of options next year (Mujica, Slocum, Aubrey) so you aren't juggling players around like they were this year (Andy Marte). Simple as that.

This is a lost season, so treat it as an extended 2009 Spring Training at a more meaningful stage. A lot of this needs to be done before Travis Hafner is ready to return. Once he gets back, he needs to play because he needs to get his swing back.

Justin Lada: Well, they need to still rid themselves of dead weight. They need to figure out if guys like Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis are for real because the bullpen is the biggest problem. David Dellucci cannot be on this team in 2009 and they need to hope that someone between Shin-Soo Choo and Franklyn Gutierrez seperates themselves from being a fourth outfielder.

They also need to move foward with Andy Marte because you cannot have him sit on the bench and play with a 24 man roster, its simple play him and let himself either play his way into a job or off the team.

Scott Miles: 1. Have someone emerge as a leader in the clubhouse.

2. Do something—anything, I don't care at this point—with Andy Marte.

3. Get Jeremy Sowers squared away somehow to minimize the holes in the back of our rotation.

4. Pray that a minimal amount of fans are completely turned off by the team.

5. Pray that Larry Dolan wins the Mega Millions to spend on some free agents.

Michael Taylor: With the white flag being flown for 2008, the Indians have some serious issues to deal with for 2009.

With CC being traded, the Indians need to address the rapidly-thinning pitching depth. Right now, the staff looks like Lee, Laffey, Byrd, Sowers, and maybe Jeff Weaver. Granted, Carmona is rehabbing his way back in the next month, but the Indians are already without Jake Westbrook for at least half of next season. So really, going into the season, the rotation would be Lee, Carmona, Laffey, and a big mess after that.

Maybe that means calling up David Huff, or signing another cheap veteran in the offseason, whatever it is, they need to make a move here if they intend to be in the race for the division next season, as they think they will be.

The other goals need to be: find a closer, see what Andy Marte can do, and generally just get healthy. That will be key to next season. Hafner and Martinez need to be in the lineup.

David Wiley: Well, for starters, it would be nice to see them finish on top of the Kansas City Royals in 2009. An insurmountable goal? Maybe, but you have to set some sort of standard.

The Indians will be searching for starters to compliment Lee, Carmona, and Laffey. Will Westbrook be back? Hopefully. Will Byrd even make it through the season? Doubtful.

Will David Dellucci continue to have some sort of mesmerizing spell over Wedge, like he has a picture of him performing zany animal sex acts with a donkey (pronounced do'wn key like in the movie Shrek). Or will Shin-Soo Choo take over left field, backing up an overrated Andy Marte at third?

We'll know more by tuning into next year's episode of As the Indians Turn. Let's hope there is no Cliff Lee hanger at the end of this season.

There is no need for any introduction to this question. What are your thoughts on the CC Sabathia deal?

Nino Colla: I'm not a fan. Details are still coming out as I type this, but while Matt LaPorta is a sure thing in terms of his bat, the rest of the deal is shady to me.

I think Mark Shapiro could have held out longer. From what I've read, it sounds as if the Brewers took him hostage in terms of getting a deal done before his next start. I wanted him to start a bidding war, but it looks as if he just took the first big prospect that came along.

Granted, I'm not disappointed with getting a bat like LaPorta, but I feel he could have gotten more. I look at the deals that got completed last year: Eric Gagne for David Murphy, Kason Gabbard and more, and Scott Linebrink for three of Milwaukee's better prospects.

This is what we get? Matt LaPorta and what? Zach Jackson, who is a converted 'pen guy who has struggled for the most part. Rob Bryson, who is years away from ever contributing, is a decent prospect. And...a player we have no clue who he is?

We needed to get a pitcher out of this, or at least another big prospect from Milwaukee out of that Huntsville team. Shapiro could have gotten way more, and I think he settled instead of getting the best deal he could by waiting it out.

This is the REIGNING CY YOUNG AWARD WINNER for three months and two guaranteed draft picks in a prime position. I think it is an okay deal, but I'm really disappointed at first glance.

Justin Lada: Well it made me sick to my stomache because losing CC hurt worse than I imagined. He may be the best pitcher in baseball and without him in 2009 I really see the Indians chances of winning slim. This team is built around pitching and CC was the best, unless Fausto can be the true ace CC was there in trouble. I understand the business but CC will deserve every penny he gets this winter and the money from the Indians would have been well spent on the big lefty.

However, I do like LaPorta because he was drafted in 2007 and is already tearing up AA. The two pitchers Bryson is only at A Lake County so it will be some time till he contributes and Zach Jackson's numbers in AAA are terrible. The player to be named later is supposed to be 3B Taylor Greene last seasons Minor League Player of the Year for Milwaukee. He played at West Virgina last season and I did get a chance to see him, so I do hope he is the PTBNL.

Scott Miles: Well, for the extended thoughts, click here.

Here's the SparkNotes version: It's a move I've braced for since October of last year, and it certainly wasn't a shock to anyone that he wasn't going to be an Indian long-term. You just thought this team would be closer to contention and not 27 games behind .500 in freaking July and staring up at the Royals in the standings.

In terms of what we got back, well, obviously LaPorta is the key to this deal, and if he's not up with the team by September, there should be an investigation because this kid is our big hope for success in 2009.

It's a bit disappointing that we couldn't get another top-tier prospect back also, but then again, Grady Sizemore was considered the after-thought of the prospects in the Bartolo Colon trade. So we'll see.

Michael Taylor: This is again a sad day in Cleveland. One of the all-time Indians greats just left town again. It is sad how the game has changed over the years. No longer will there be any Hall of Fame-worthy players staying in one town for their entire careers, especially in a small-market city such as Cleveland.

Over the past decade or so, I have seen my favorite players leave one by one, from Albert Belle to Manny Ramirez to Jim Thome to CC Sabathia. It is only a matter of time until we will be asking this same question about Grady Sizemore.

But in terms of a baseball move, I like the deal. There aren’t too many chances that come along to get a prospect as big as Matt LaPorta. Sabathia was not going to re-sign, so even if it was just LaPorta, it is a decent deal. The keys to it being a great deal will be Bryson and the player to be named.

David Wiley: Hadda happen. If you look at the past holdings: Nothing for Manny Ramirez. Nothing for Jim Thome. Bartolo Colon was the last big show-stopping trade for the Indians and yielded us both of our All-Stars in Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore.

LaPorta is touted highly as a fantastic hitter, so maybe we will have one batsman in the lineup to protect Jhonny Peralta at cleanup. Did I just say that out loud? Must have a firework hangover.

The Indians also designated closer Joe Borowski. Who are your short-term and long-term replacements for the closer role?

Nino Colla: Short term must be Masa Kobayashi, just because he's been the least awful out of the three who could step in. Long term, I think it's Jensen Lewis.

I'm having second thoughts about calling up Jeff Stevens until we are able to let him pitch on a regular basis. That means someone like Betancourt would have to be traded.

I love Stevens and his bulldog mentality. He and Jensen would be one and 1A in terms of my choices to take over the role long-term. I like Rafael Perez, but his slider scares the living bajesus out of me late in the games. It's nasty, but it can also cost you if it goes haywire.

Justin Lada: Short term I think Kobayashi deserves the shot to take the job as he had so much sucess in Japan with it. Long term, Jensen Lewis looks like he has a shot, but at the same time Jeff Steves in AAA looks good. But even Mark Shapiro said, findning a closer among his current pitchers isnt impossible but unlikely, and that is not a good sign.

Scott Miles: Short term is going to be Kobayashi, though, if I'm still haunted by that 600-foot bomb that Adam Dunn hit off of him, I can't even imagine how he's feeling.

If he does well, then power to him and we'll see ya' in '09. If he falters, then you can try one or both of the Raffy's—again—back there. If they falter, then the bullpen becomes the biggest question mark heading into the offseason, and the Tribe will have to scour the free-agent market for some arms.

Michael Taylor: While I am happy that the Indians finally admitted their mistake in brining Joe back, it was sad to see it end the way it did. Joe was a battler who gave it his all.

As far as finding a replacement, right now Masahide Kobayashi will take over, and rightly so. He has been the only bullpen pitcher to show any sort of consistency this season. He is not overpowering, and is prone to give up some long bombs, but for this team right now, he is the guy.

With that said, I do not see him as any sort of long-term solution for the next couple of seasons. And I am not sure if the solution is even on the team right now.

I like Rafael Perez as a future closer, but inconsistency of the strike zone is really hurting him this season. Should he re-find that great control we saw last season, he is my guy.

One pitcher to really watch late this season will be Jeff Stevens. He has been throwing very well as the closer in the minors. He is soon to be called up. Who knows, he might get a shot at closing for Cleveland by the end of the season.

David Wiley: Oh happy day! Jump in the air! Ding-dong, the witch is...well, okay, maybe that is a bit over the top, but it is a great day in Cleveland now that Borowski is gone. Watching Borowski close was similar to clipping your toenails with needle-nose pliers: Painful and not very effective.

Kobayashi should have been stuck into the closer role a lot sooner. They need to let him either sink or swim, especially since Betancourt already sunk. Will the Tribe go after a big-name closer? No. Can Masa fill the role? Yes.

No one could be worse than Borowski was. In other news, grandmas all over Cleveland are lining up for a crack at the closer role, since even someone's grandmother could have been as good as Joe-Bloe.

Player Debate of the Week: Ryan Garko

The bright and shiny outlook to Ryan Garko's career has turned into a dark cloud of rain this season. What do you think happened to Garko, and does he continue to have a full-time job in Cleveland past this season?

Nino Colla: Oh Ryan, Ryan, Ryan. I think the pressure of being a first baseman has heightened our expectations of Ryan.

People think he is going to slug 40 home runs a year. Face it people, he isn't Jim Thome, and he won't ever be Jim Thome. He is a catcher at heart and there is a reason his production is what it is. Now, granted he has struggled this year, so it's magnified, but his ceiling is 20-25 home runs.

He is a doubles-singles hitter who probably doesn't belong in a run-producing spot. He either needs to hit in the seventh or third spot. He needs to get it going, though, and he needs protection. I've been yelling and screaming for the guy to hit third, in front of Hafner, for years.

As for his long-term outlook, people don't like Garko. I think the consensus of Indians' fans is that they would rather have Michael Aubrey or something like that. News flash, Garko is a good hitter. Is he streaky? Yes, but he has done it at the major-league level, and I don't think its time to get rid of him yet.

I'd love to give him more DH time to get him focusing on his hitting. I'd also like to give him a shot in the three-hole right NOW. Jhonny is hot, he would have protection. Maybe it is the confidence boost he needs.

Justin Lada: Garko has become a singles hitter, a slow and streaky one at that. He was benched for Michael Aubrey for a while so it seems the Indians are willing to make him fight for his job. He does have a track record of being a good hitter at every level.

I think he needs to refine his swing because him ending up on his front knee seems to kill his power and he used to have a great batting eye but that seems to have gone.Nothing time in the Arizona Fall League or AAA cant fix, but why send him down now with the season gone, unless the Indians have any 1B prospects that are ready for a shot let him work through the problems now to figure out where he fits in 2009. Michael Aubrey. Jordan Brown and Beau Mills are a few years away, Matt Whitney could make a push next season.

Scott Miles: Well, after hitting .289 with 21 homers in 475 at-bats last season, we're looking at a guy with a .244 batting average and just six home runs right now through 275 ABs. Last year, he hit 29 doubles. This year, he's got nine. He's hitting just .209 at home this season as well.

So, not only is the average way down, the power numbers are slumping as well, and what good is a below-par hitting/fielding first baseman, particularly in the AL? Expect some of the other guys in the organization, like Michael Aubrey or maybe even Beau Mills, to challenge him for the position in 2009.

Michael Taylor: I continue to feel that Ryan Garko will be a productive hitter in the major leagues. I think that he has just tried to do too much this season, which has led to his swing mechanics becoming flawed.

He typically is a great control hitter, who will put the ball in play regularly. He has actually cut down his strikeouts this season.

The Indians should continue to give him time to work things out, as the pressure is now off for this season. Looking at his stats, he has had some bad luck on balls in play.

According to Fangraphs.com, his line-drive rate has actually increased, while his BABIP has plummeted. That usually does not happen. His HR/FB rate is way below his normal rates as well. I'd expect a rebound.

David Wiley: Ryan Garko. Not bad, not great. They say hitting is infectious. Well, there is no worry of a fever of high-RBI-o-itus tearing through the Indians' clubhouse. Garko hasn't looked horrendous at the plate this year, so I'm thinking he'll be ok.

The power is there. Whether it will be with Cleveland is another story. Probably not. He'll get traded to some other team and knock the Tribe around a good one for years to come is my guess.

Fun Question of the Week:

Since this is the last time we can really speak of CC Sabathia as a member of the Indians, what is your favorite CC moment?

Nino Colla: It's tough to pick one because he never really had a defining moment that stuck out for you.

I'm going to go back to the 2005 season when Kevin Millwood was here. I think that was the year things just turned on for CC as a big-time starting pitcher. He was always good, and he was always our ace in terms of the rotation.

But it was at some point in that year that Millwood said something to CC and the light just went on. He became a pitcher, and a dominant one at that.

Some highlights that stick out from last year have to be his career high in strikeouts of 13 in just seven innings against the Royals. I went back and looked at his yearly numbers today, and from his rookie season up to last year, he never really cracked double digits in strikeouts in a game.

In his rookie year, he had 11 punch-outs in three games, and now this year he's done that several times in just half a season. CC was a joy to watch, his pure emotion was something that got him in trouble earlier in his career, but has since become something that has defined him.

I love a guy who gets fired up about something, and CC showed it several times, but all in the right situation.

It wasn't a Joba Chamberlain fist pump, chest pound after an eighth-inning strikeout of David Dellucci. It was a walk off the mound shouting, "That's how we F’N do it" to the crowd after he struck out the side in a September game with high energy all around. I'm still holding out hope that the No. 1 moment is him making a return in a couple of months, but we won't get into that now.

I'll miss the guy if this indeed is it, and I'll reserve any other comment on what has happened for later. CC meant a lot to this team and the rebuilding. He was the one constant from the Colon trade to the 2007 playoff run.

He was always there and that was nice to have. It's been fun watching him grow up and mature into the man he is today. I also think Mama Sabathia rocks, and I'll miss her as well.

Justin Lada: Wow that is tough. He has had so many dominant performances as an Indian. I did enjoy his 440 ft home run in LA this season. In his rookie year in 2001 the Game 4 of the ALDS against the Mariners, how he pitched in the blowout win was great. Even his first career start when he retired 10 straight after a home run throwing 98 mph every pitch was incredible and looked promising.

Other than that the only real performances I can think of is just his countless dominant preformances this and last season, winning games 1-0 2-1 2-0 because we scored little runs and he was still able to win the game. That is why the Indians will miss the big lefty, because how many pitchers can consistently win you games when you score 1-2 runs a game.

Scott Miles: I went to a game against the Red Sox with some of my buddies in May 2004. It was CC against Pedro, and really, the only thing to get excited about early on in that season as we were still trying to rebuild into contenders.

I just checked his final line in that game, and it wasn't great. He took the loss, giving up four runs in six-and-two-thirds innings, but he held Boston scoreless through the first five innings. But CC was great early on in that game before finally faltering late, and I really thought that was a key step in his maturation process as a pitcher.

It was definitely a great memory of watching two of the most dominating pitchers of our era going toe-to-toe.

Michael Taylor: I know there are some great moments to choose from, but I have been overly impressed by CC's continued pursuit of success.

Take, for example, this season. He had the horrific start, but sucked it up and continued to fight through it, and right now is throwing better than at any point of his career. He can, at times, just look so dominant on the mound. Whatever he throws will undoubtedly be swung at and missed. He has really taken it to a new level.

I guess though, if I had to choose a moment, it would be his rookie season of 2001 as a 20-year old. He went 17-5, helping the Indians to make the playoffs. From that point, you could just see it in him.

He was something special. He has been my favorite Indian since, and I will continue to root for him as long as he isn’t in the division or a Yankee or Red Sox.

David Wiley: Other than watching Sabathia mow down team after team with his extraordinary ability to strikeout opposing batters with embarrassing accuracy, I'd have to say watching him get larger and larger as the years went by, and wondering when his back was going to go out would rank right up there.

The good news is he will not be in an Indians uniform when all that chicken-fried steak catches up to him. Seriously though, he's one of the best left-handed pitchers I've ever seen. The hitch in his giddy-up of a windup was always my favorite part of him pitching.

The starting pitching will survive though, and it’s the right thing to do. Cleveland can't afford $20-$25 million a year committed to one guy.

C.C. Sabathia Trade: Ramblings of a Small Market Fan

Michael Taylor — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 08:11:10 -0400

I will start out by stating that I am not upset about the Cleveland Indians trading C.C. Sabathia, the organization’s best starting pitcher in the last 30-40 years.

From where the Indians currently stand, it is good business. It is what a general manager in Mark Shapiro’s position must do to keep his team stocked with talent to continue to compete in the future. That’s the way the game works.

This trade that has brought in a very talented prospect in Matt LaPorta, two minor league pitchers, and a player to be named later may end up being a great deal. Then again it may not. Only time will tell.

Mark Shapiro does have a solid history in making good deals for prospects. I don’t doubt that this will again be a successful trade.

What is a shame though, is that the fans are left to accept the trade.

The same fans that give their hard-earned money and get emotionally attached to players have a hard time letting go. Especially when one of their favorite players is traded or not re-signed because the team they root for can’t afford the player's price tag.

The fans don’t like to think of the game as a business, it is a game that we all played as a kid. For all we care that could be one of us out there on the field (even though in the back of our mind we know we couldn’t hit the ball).

What is the difference if a player gets an extra million dollars or not? The player was happy here and cheered for for 10 years, why change the situation? He would have been one of the all-time greats in this city.

This situation creates a negative atmosphere for all parties included.

The player becomes labeled as greedy, and a traitor to the city. Cleveland fans have been through this drill before. This is the same city that has seen Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, and Jim Thome push aside the city for greener pastures.

They all said they wanted to stay in Cleveland, but in the end the all-mighty dollar spoke louder.

When each of them returned to the city they were all greeted with a chorus of boos. Albert Belle even had stuff thrown at him while on the field. I certainly hope this label does not stick to C.C., because I don’t feel it would be deserved, but there will no doubt be some who do think of him that way.

The team and its ownership group become labeled as cheap. This is one of the ways that fans try to cope with the loss. In the end it is always the ownership group that doesn’t want to spend the money to win a championship.

The team could very well be utilizing all of its resources to max out its payroll in a small market, but because it is not over $100 million or even half of the Yankees' payroll, the team is cheap in the eyes of the fan.

Even though, as we have seen through history, teams can win without the highest payroll, it definitely doesn’t hurt its chances.

The fan loses faith in their team, and loses the idea that there will again be that one player who will play out his career with his or her team. There will never again be a Bob Feller who will come along, blow away opponents, serve his country in war, and come back to finish his Hall-of-Fame career all while playing in the city of Cleveland. It is sad to say that those days are long gone.

What is left for fans of smaller market teams is to enjoy the first seven to 10 years of a career path. The fans get to witness the maturation of a star, while the team lacks the ability to keep that star in the long-term. It will only be a matter of time before the next star on the team is up for grabs to the open market and leaves the city and fans that grew to love and adore them behind.

It is a perpetual cycle.

Until Major League Baseball can find a way to level the playing field, I’m afraid fans not in New York, Boston, Chicago, or L.A. will continue to see this cycle continue.

Sure the Brewers are a small-market team landing a big-name pitcher, but do any of us really think that they can re-sign Sabathia?

For Cleveland’s sake, I hope that by the time 2012 rolls around that the Indians can find a way to keep the next big star that will be up for big money—Grady Sizemore.

If not, at least the town is well versed on how this happens. Maybe by then it won’t hurt so much.

Nah, who am I kidding, it will still hurt like hell.

Roto Chronicles: American League, July 7

Michael Taylor — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 03:17:53 -0400

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

Aubrey Huff, 1B/DH—BAL (UP) Very quietly, Aubrey Huff is having a terrific season. As late as June 8, Huff was hitting just .239, but he still had nine home runs. Since that date, Huff has hit .387 with eight home runs and 23 RBI. This gives him a .281 batting average with 17 home runs and 54 RBI. This hot of a streak won’t continue, but Huff should continue to provide solid power-numbers. His HR/FB rate has jumped back to 15.3 percent after a career low 8.5 percent last season. Huff also has maintained his reasonable strikeout level of 14.9 percent. This, along with his growing BABIP, should keep his batting average around the .275-.280 range.

Ian Kinsler, 2B—TEX (UP) Texas' second baseman just keeps on looking better and better. He’s also worked his way into MVP talks and deserves to be the starter in the All-Star game. Kinsler leads the league both in batting average (.332) and runs (79). Not to mention that he also has 14 home runs, 53 RBI, and 23 stolen bases. He's been the most valuable fantasy player in the American League this season. And it shouldn’t stop. He is showing a good line-drive rate of 21.5 percent, which has led to his .349 BABIP, and he strikes out just 13.3 percent of the time. The .300-plus average will continue.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B—BOS (UP) After struggling through late May and into June, Pedroia has been on fire of late. He has hit in 17 of his last 18 games, posting an incredible batting average of .473 to go along with five home runs and 21 runs scored. The most amazing part of the streak is that Pedroia has 12 multi-hit games out of the 18 games. There is no doubt that he is a hit machine. His 92 percent contact rate, 22.9 percent line-drive rate, and .325 BABIP all point to him being a consistent .300 hitter. But he is also no Placido Polanco. Pedroia does have some power with nine home runs and speed with nine stolen bases.

Yuniesky Betancourt, SS—SEA (DOWN) Betancourt continues to post a great contact rate, but he also continues to do very little with it. His lack of power has actually decreased this season, and he has just one stolen base, after stealing 16 the past two years. He should raise his batting average back up into the .280s, but that is not enough to make him worthy of any ownership. Especially since he is playing on a Mariners squad that is 28th in the majors in runs scored. If you still own him, move on.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF—BOS (DOWN) Ellsbury was easily the runaway choice for the AL Rookie of the Year through May, but after slumping through the last month, he is behind the Rays' Longoria. The main difference is the fact that Ellsbury is no longer walking more than he strikes out. Through May, Ellsbury had 27 walks to 19 strikeouts, since then, Ellsbury has just three walks to 23 strikeouts. It will be up to him to make the adjustment that pitchers have made to him. If he is able to adjust, Ellsbury will continue to supply great numbers. He has a solid 22 percent line-drive rate and a good 14 percent strikeout rate.

Chone Figgins, 3B—LAA (DOWN) Never known for much power, Figgins is taking it to a new low this season. He has a total of eight extra-base hits, and they are all doubles. This gives him a very distinct .040 ISO power. Also, Figgins has just 14 stolen bases and has nine RBI. Assuming he keeps his current pace, this will be the third year in a row that these totals both will have decreased. He does, however, continue to post a solid line-drive rate that should aid in keeping his average up. Though, an average alone, with a handful of steals, does not make a top fantasy player.

Pitchers

John Danks, SP—CHW (UP) John Danks continued his stellar season Sunday with another quality start against the Athletics. He had a no-hitter into the sixth inning before giving up two runs on four hits in 6.2 innings. He also struck out nine. On the season, Danks is now 6-4 with a sparkling 2.52 ERA. The main reason for his turnaround has been his ability to transfer from being a flyball pitcher into a groundball pitcher. This has helped to keep the ball in the ballpark and utilize his good K/BB ratio. All signs point to his continued success.

Mike Mussina, SP—NYY (UP) Mussina continues to reinvent himself. The ability to overpower hitters is long gone, but Mussina still has his pinpoint control. He won his 11th game of the season Saturday after winning just 11 all of last year. The main reason for his success is his good K/BB ratio of 3.94, and his ability to induce batters into 43 percent groundballs. The only chink in the armor to pay attention to is a high 24.6 percent line-drive rate allowed. He has been fortunate to only have a BABIP of .299 with this rate, but he has gotten away with it before. He should have a shot at 18 wins if he can continue this success.

Brandon Morrow, RP—SEA (UP) While J.J. Putz continues to rehab his elbow, young Brandon Morrow is showcasing his stuff and looking like an elite closer. Since being inserted into the closer role, Morrow has converted all seven of his save opportunities and has yet to allow a run to score in these opportunities. He has tremendous strikeout ability, 12.04 K/9, and is continuing to show good command of the strike zone, only 2.60 BB/9. The walks are the key number to watch. In 63 innings a year ago, Morrow walked 50 batters. Though, for the time being, enjoy the run while Putz is out.

Joe Borowski, CL—CLE (DOWN) In the back of our minds, we all knew it was coming. The Joe Borowski era is officially over. It really matters not if he latches on somewhere in terms of fantasy. I seriously doubt that a team will insert him as a closer again. Over his year-and-a-half in Cleveland, Borowski had a 5.57 ERA and somehow saved 51 games. I guess magic can only last so long before people figure out how it is done. Cleveland will now go to a closer-by-committee approach with Masahide Kobayashi as the main fantasy target.

Aaron Laffey, SP—CLE (DOWN) The AL Rookie Pitcher of the Month in May, when he allowed a total of three earned runs, is now struggling to re-find that success. While he still has a 5.16 ERA over his past four starts, Laffey is now walking more batters than usual. He has walked 11 batters over his past 22.2 innings. This, along with his lack of strikeout production, makes it difficult to be a solid fantasy starter. I’d expect him to right the ship in the near future, he does have a history of great control, but right now he is looking like a spot starter against weaker offenses.

Garrett Olson, SP—BAL (DOWN) I am off of the Garrett Olson bandwagon for a while. I believed he was worthy of some spot starts, but Olson has consistently put up some pretty weak performances of late. Over his past five starts, Olson is 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA. He has also not thrown at least six innings in any of these starts. For the season, Olson is striking out just 5.81 batters per nine innings. This is from a pitcher who averaged about a strikeout an inning while in the minor leagues. If he is to become a fantasy-worthy pitcher, this must come back up.

INJURY REPORT

The return of Eric Chavez barely even lasted a month. The Athletics placed the oft-injured third baseman or DH, as it may be, on the disabled list with inflammation in his surgically-repaired shoulder. Pending the results of an MRI, further surgery may be required. Once again, Chavez teased and left us hanging.

The Athletics also placed shortstop Bobby Crosby on the disabled list. He strained his hamstring during Wednesday night’s game. He likely will just be out the two weeks, with Donnie Murphy getting his at-bats.

The Mariners placed Felix Hernandez on the disabled list with the sprained ankle that he suffered on June 23. It is not a severe injury, so expect to see Hernandez make his next start upon activation on July 9. Hopefully, he can keep his hot streak alive after the time off.

Angels' catcher Mike Napoli will miss some time with inflammation in his right shoulder. He will likely be placed on the disabled list after an MRI that will be done today. Jeff Mathis will take over full-time duties.

Erik Bedard has had his next start pushed back after complaining of shoulder tightness after Friday night’s game. There is no timetable of when the next start will be. He could even end up on the disabled list.

Johnny Damon left Saturday’s game against the Red Sox with a shoulder injury as he slammed into the outfield wall. He was then placed on the disabled list Sunday. He will miss at least the two weeks, maybe more.

Count out Kelvim Escobar on his ability to make a comeback this season. The right-hander woke up with soreness in his pitching shoulder a night after working three scoreless innings. The soreness was described as different than normal soreness that you feel after pitching, and it was in the same exact spot as it was in the spring when he first felt the problem. Escobar will likely now have surgery.

Mariners’ closer J.J. Putz will begin a rehab assignment in the next week, with the hopes of returning after the All-Star break. Because Brandon Morrow has done such a terrific job closing out games, manager Jim Riggleman stated that Putz will initially return in middle relief.

Troy Percival was again placed on the disabled list with hamstring issues. Percival was only active for about three weeks before the issue crept up on him again. If you own Percival, wait it out, but continue to be very cautious, and possibly even pick up Grant Balfour if he is still available, in order to have insurance against another injury.

Paul Konerko began a rehab assignment with AAA Charlotte over the weekend and plans on returning to the White Sox lineup Tuesday. Konerko is recovering from a strained oblique muscle.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

Ramon Hernandez, C—BAL If you are looking for some catching help, do not look past Ramon Hernandez. A very slow start to the season caused many to overlook him, but a recent surge is placing him right back on the map. Since June 1, Hernandez is hitting .283 with three home runs and 13 RBI. He is again hitting the ball well enough to post solid power numbers and a good batting average. He has a very good line-drive rate of 22.1 percent, which should be posting a much higher BABIP than .266, and he is striking out just 13.4 percent of at-bats. He also has a decent 9.3 percent HR/FB rate, which, with his increasing production, should allow him to hit upwards of 15 home runs.

Billy Butler, 1B/DH—KC After spending some time in AAA with Omaha where he refound his stroke, hitting .337 in 101 at-bats with five home runs, Butler was recalled last week. He responded by hitting .286 in his first week back and hit his second home run of the season. I would expect that number to start jumping as Butler does have power and a decent strikeout rate of 14.5 percent. In the long run, he has the makings of a star, but right now, you should be able to get a .280-.290 average and 10 home runs from him the rest of the way.

Scott Baker, SP—MIN There is no reason for Scott Baker to be only 10 percent owned in leagues, according to ESPN. Not only does he pitch for a contending team and have an ERA of 3.65, but he has a tremendous K/BB ratio of 4.75. He is only walking 1.57 batters per nine innings. This will keep his WHIP down, as he only allows about a hit an inning. This also is a reason why his fielding independent ERA is just 3.98 when he does give up more flyballs than groundballs with 12 percent of them leaving the yard. I still project Baker as a 12-13 game winner with an ERA in the 3.75-4.00 range.

Masahide Kobayashi, RP—CLE With the news of Joe Borowski being designated for assignment, Kobayashi will become the front-runner for saves out of the Cleveland bullpen. Kobayashi is one of the all-time great closers in Japanese history, with over 200 career saves. While he has not been officially named the closer, he will get opportunities. He has been the one Cleveland reliever who has shown any sort of consistency this season. He is a control pitcher who will induce a lot of groundballs. He will not overpower anyone, but he should get the job done.

FUTURES MARKET

After back-to-back sub-par performances, Francisco Liriano bounced back this week with 13 innings of scoreless baseball. He also struck out 16 batters to only two walks. And over Liriano’s last 62.2 innings, he has a 6-0 record, a 3.59 ERA, 59 strikeouts, and only 12 walks. This is great news for his return.

Matt Wieters continues his onslaught on minor-league pitchers. Wieters hit his first home run since being promoted to AA on Thursday night. Since the promotion, Wieters has hit .323 and has three RBI. He also continues to show great discipline at the plate with six walks to three strikeouts in 31 at-bats.

Another top-five talent has made a successful jump to AA. In two starts since being promoted, David Price has pitched 12 innings, allowing two runs on nine hits, striking out 12. On the season now, the young Tampa Bay prospect has a 6-0 record with an ERA of 1.74. I wouldn’t count out the chance that we may see Price in September for a few innings.

The Mariners’ Wladimir Balentien obviously wasn’t ready when inserted into a major-league roster this season, and he is still struggling since being demoted. Since the demotion, Balentien has hit only .213 in 61 at-bats, even though he is showing better plate awareness, walking 12 times to his 11 strikeouts. Balentien will be back at some point this season, so I’d keep an eye on him. He won’t hit for much average this season, but he could be a source of cheap power.

As the Indians decide what parts of their team to selloff over the next few weeks, a pitcher to watch is David Huff. Huff is another left-handed pitcher in the Indians organization that pounds the strike zone with consistency. In 97.2 innings split between AA and AAA, Huff has a 7-1 record, a 2.40 ERA, 100 strikeouts, and only 17 walks. It is an almost certainty that he will be up in the near future.

While the Red Sox continue to use Julio Lugo and his .939 fielding percentage and .697 OPS, Jed Lowrie remains in AAA Pawtucket. Lowrie continued to make his case to be the Red Sox's starting shortstop with a great month of June, hitting .302 with four home runs and 21 RBI. In his brief call-up to the Red Sox in April, Lowrie hit .310 in 42 at-bats. If he doesn’t earn the job by the end of this season, look for Lowrie to start 2009.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

Buy—A.J. Burnett, SP—TOR A pitcher you might be able to get at a low cost right now is A.J. Burnett. Just looking at his 8-8 record and 4.92 ERA, one might be willing to move him. I would definitely buy if you need some strikeouts for your team. Even though his strikeout rate is down from last season, he is still striking out more than his career rate of 8.21 K/9. Also, Burnett is having some bad luck. His Fielding Independent ERA of 3.55 is way under his 4.92 ERA. The main reason for this is his low 65.9 percent strand rate. That rate typically ranges in the mid-70-percent range. If he can keep his walks at a reasonable level (Burnett walked zero in his last start), he is one of the AL’s top starting pitchers.

Sell—Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP—BOS I’ve said it before and continue to believe that Matsuzaka needs to be sold as soon as you can. The time on the disabled list has done nothing to change the fact that Matsuzaka continues to walk batters like none other, especially from a pitcher who is generally considered one of the leagues best. For the season, Matsuzaka’s strikeouts are down (8.84 to 7.80 K/9), walks are way up (3.52 to 5.88 BB/9), and he has been generally lucky on balls in play. His BABIP of .254 is under his expected .286 BABIP according to his in-play rates, and he has just allowed 5.1 percent HR/FB, a number that is likely to regress back upward. Don’t be surprised if, by the end of the season, his ERA is in the 4.25-4.50 range or higher. Sell his 9-1 record and 3.12 ERA.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL RELIEVERS

1. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA

2. Mariano Rivera, NYY

3. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS

4. Joakim Soria, KC

5. Joe Nathan, MIN

6. George Sherrill, BAL

7. Bobby Jenks, CHW

8. Troy Percival, TB - DL

9. B.J. Ryan, TOR

10. Huston Street, OAK

For the National League and more news and history from MLB, visit SEAMHEADS.com

Bye-Bye Borowski: Cleveland Indians Designate Closer

Michael Taylor — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 09:13:24 -0400

It's official. The dreams of Cleveland fans everywhere have come true, and Joe Borowski is gone. Not to the disabled list, not to the showers after blowing another game, but gone for good.

A year after leading the American League in saves, Borowski is out of a job.

Borowski was brought back on a one-year contract to anchor the Cleveland bullpen with the idea that he was a tough competitor, someone who fought for each and every out that he got. He did his job well enough to pass. While that is very true, sometimes being a competitor and showing heart just isn't enough.

It does not hide a lack of talent.

During his "great" 2007 season where he saved 45 games, Borowski became the first player in history to lead his league in saves while posting an ERA of over 5.00.

Of the top-10 pitchers in saves in the American League that season, Borowski allowed the most hits, runs, and had the most blown saves, with eight.

He was either good or very bad. This year, it has been more of the very bad.

In 18 appearances, Borowski had an ERA of 7.56 with four blown saves. He was showing decreased velocity, which led to significantly fewer strikeouts and more hard hit balls. Borowski had given up 24 hits, including four home runs in 16.2 innings of work.

The decrease in velocity was mysteriously linked to an undisclosed forearm strain injury from spring training. The Indians tried to give it some time to rest and placed Borowski on the disabled list for five weeks, but after continuing to struggle to get outs, they finally had enough.

After blowing his last save against the White Sox on Tuesday night, Borowski had not only blown away his job as an Indian, but essentially finished the Indians' season and any attempt they might have had at a comeback.

After a closed-door meeting Thursday, a new direction was set, Boroski was gone, along with bullpen-mate Rick Bauer. The Indians have 10 days to trade or release the veteran relievers. The kids are to be called up, and the Indians are now definite sellers in this year's trade market.

In his year-and-a-half in an Indians uniform, Borowski did help to give the Indians bullpen enough stability to allow others to assume their appropriate roles and help lead a young team to the brink of a World Series appearance.

Without Borowski and his role on the team, the Indians would not have been where they were.

Though, as we have seen this season, all good things must come to an end.

While the Indians' successful run may not officially be over, as there is still a bright future for the organization, it is hard to say the same about Borowski.

I wish Joe the best on his quest to continue his pitching career—it's been great while the run lasted.

Five Questions the Cleveland Indians Need To Answer In 2008

Michael Taylor — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 16:00:27 -0400

There is no way around it. The 2008 version of the Cleveland Indians has been downright disappointing. Once thought of as a developing contender for years to come, they have fallen flat on their face. It started early in the season, and they have not shown any real signs of life since.

Currently, the Indians stand 11.5 games behind the division-leading White Sox, with the possibility of a larger deficit looming, as the Indians continue their series with the South Siders tomorrow. This places the Indians in dead last, behind the Kansas City Royals (wow, did I really just say that).

With the realization that this season is pretty much going to be played out by the team for a fresh start next season, what questions on the roster should we try and figure out now? It’s better to find out now than when the pressure is very high in a pennant race.

I am just taking into account players on the roster who will be back next season, barring any surprise trade. I am not including players rumored to be traded. That is not what this is about. It is about what the Indians have and will have, and what they need to learn.

So here are five questions that the Indians need to find an answer to by the end of 2008.

1. Third Base: Find out what Andy Marte can do at third base.

This one is the most obvious and pressing question, as the Indians continue to hold Marte.

Casey Blake has had a terrific season by his standards, and will be a free agent at the end of the season. This makes him very expendable, as he is at a relatively high value right now. I foresee the Indians taking this opportunity to make a great deal. Remember how Shapiro sold high on the likes of Ben Broussard and Eduardo Perez to get Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera?

As for Marte, he has been a drag on the Indians' ability to have show flexibility on their roster. He is stuck without minor-league options. The Indians must still feel that he has something in the tank, or else he would have been gone by now. I seriously doubt that previous dealings with the likes of Brandon Phillips have much to do with it. If that is the case, then there is a serious problem, and they need to look ahead and get over the past.

The Indians need to figure out what Marte has to offer. He needs to play everyday to do this, not just a couple times a week and then a pinch-hitting opportunity. What’s the worst that could happen, he continues to not hit? He would fit right in with this ball club.

At least then there is no way the Indians could continue to hold onto him. It is a win-win situation. They either find out that he is a serviceable third baseman to utilize until Wes Hodges is ready in the next year or two, or he ends up getting released to open up his roster spot to find a new third baseman.

2. Second Base: Can Asdrubal Cabrera readjust to major-league pitching?

Asdrubal Cabrera made great strides during the 2007 season, coming from AA to the big leagues, and ultimately the MLB playoffs, but 2008 has been unkind to the young Venezuelan. Despite the tremendous defense that leads Tribe fans to remember another Indian who used to wear the number 13, Cabrera struggled at the plate, with a poor .184 batting average and just 16 runs scored in 52 games.

Thus, it is obvious as to why the Indians made the move to demote Cabrera. He likely was still not a finished product and needed some more time. But, with an eye on the future, the Indians must find out if the man nicknamed “Astro-Cab” can readjust himself to major-league pitching.

Since the demotion, he has hit .363 in 80 at-bats for Buffalo. He has played mostly shortstop, leading some to believe that his recall will be to his natural position. Though, Eric Wedge states that the reasoning for the move to short was to just get him some reps there, since he had been playing second base so much.

Shortstop is likely in his future, but that decision will be made at a later date and not this season. If it were to happen, you would see it next spring, so that Jhonny Peralta would have a chance to get himself ready for a new position. Regardless of position, Cabrera is in the Indians' plans for the future.

You need a great up-the-middle defender when your team is based so much on pitching. All the Indians need from him is a serviceable bat. He will never hit a ton of home runs or steal a lot of bases, but what he will need to do is get on base and move runners along.

When his next attempt will come is the question right now. Jamey Carroll is doing a solid job filling in at the position in the meantime. Maybe Carroll will be traded, or maybe Cabrera comes back up to fill in for a struggling Carroll. Whatever it is, he needs to be brought back up and thrown back into the fire at some point. The Indians need to learn what he is made of.

3. Outfield: Can Choo/Gutierrez provide a solid platoon in right field?

While I firmly believe that either of these two, Shin-Soo Choo and Franklin Gutierrez, is destined to be a fourth outfielder, the Indians need to find out. And together, maybe this platoon could work out.

We have seen the great potential that Gutierrez possesses, but it has been far and few between. It typically comes against a left-handed pitcher, which he has a career .269 average against and .475 slugging percentage. Against right-handers, it is .243 with a very poor .329 slugging percentage. After looking at that, you can see why he only needs to be used against left-handed pitchers.

When not in the starting lineup, Gutierrez can still be used late in games as a pinch-hitter against left-handed pitchers, a pinch-runner, and a defensive replacement. A player with these skill sets is a very valuable asset to any team. The key is to know that the player needs to be utilized this way, which I believe Wedge and the Indians have now found out.

Choo is also an excellent platoon option. He has a career .186 average against lefties, and .281 average against right-handers. This compliments Gutierrez’ splits quite well. Together, they should team up to hit a cumulative .275 with 15-20 home runs.

But can this happen, is the question. Choo is still early in his return from Tommy John surgery and needs some extra days off now and then. Also, he, like Gutierrez, does not have a very good eye at the plate, striking out a near 25 percent of the time. It is tough to keep any average up with so many strikeouts.

So if the Indians are to figure out if they can use these two in the future as a platoon, now is the time. If it fails, no hurt. If it works, the Indians will buy themselves a little more time to find a replacement in right field.

4. Rotation: Can Jeremy Sowers make it in a big-league rotation?

Jake Westbrook is not coming back for over a year, C.C. Sabathia is likely to be gone, and Paul Byrd will be gone. This leaves plenty of opportunity for someone to step into the back of the Indians' rotation next season. Who better than a former No. 1 draft pick. The time and money has been spent on Sowers, so the Indians must find out what he has.

Right now, it does not look very appealing, with his 0-4 record and 7.53 ERA. Sowers has struggled mightily, allowing batters to a .356 average, including eight home runs in 34.2 innings.

But two years ago, he was 7-4 with a 3.57 ERA. Also, in 10 starts in Buffalo to start the season, Sowers was 4-3 with a 2.08 ERA. He does have some talent. I believe it is a confidence issue right now. He has been banged around pretty good.

Sowers is a smart competitor, and he will work through it. Just don’t expect lights-out numbers.

Sowers will never be a front-line starter with his poor strikeout rate, but he does project as a fourth or fifth starter. He could be a guy to fill in some innings until the next wave of pitchers are ready. The Indians need to find out because nobody is going to want him in any deals at this point.

5. Bullpen: Let the kids pitch.

The bullpen has been the biggest disappointment on the team this season. Thought of as quite possibly the best in the league coming into the season, inconsistent performances from Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez, and Jensen Lewis among others have plagued the unit.

With the season now fading away, the Indians should begin looking towards next season to figure out which guys should stick in the bullpen.

Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez, and Masahide Kobayashi are likely to be the only ones for sure returning to the bullpen next season. This leaves three to four open spots, including a closer.

With the exception of the random, veteran bullpen addition that Mark Shapiro likes to add every offseason, the Indians need to run some youngsters in for a taste of action. The group of Edward Mujica, Tom Mastny, Jensen Lewis, and, inevitably, Jeff Stevens need to get their share of the workload over the last two months of the season.

The two key figures in this rotation of relievers are Jensen Lewis and Jeff Stevens.

Jensen Lewis has had previous success with the Indians, but a mysterious drop in velocity left him rather vulnerable at the outset of the season, thus he was demoted. If he can re-find his mechanics that led to his great deception, along with the velocity, Lewis will again be a key component to the future of the Indians' relief corps.

I expect that he will be back up in the near future. Lewis has cut back on the walks and has a 3.79 ERA at Buffalo.

The other, Jeff Stevens, has not had any experience in the major leagues yet, but he has put himself on the map in the past year with a great run of success. In case you didn’t know, Stevens is the infamous player-to-be-named later in the Brandon Phillips deal that sent the disgruntled second baseman to Cincinnati.

Stevens showcases a mid-to-upper 90s fastball, along with a good changeup. He is currently closing in Buffalo, and is said by scouts to have the stuff to pitch in the majors right now. We will soon see. He may even be the eventual answer at closer, but let's not get too ahead of ourselves. Let’s first see him get some experience and be successful.

Only a couple of these guys are likely to stick. The Indians need to figure out which ones.

Bleacher Report MLB Power Rankings: July 1

Michael Taylor — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 02:22:59 -0400

Welcome to the midseason edition of the MLB Power Rankings here on Bleacher Report. You may have seen other rankings lists on this site, but this one is different. It comes straight from your community leaders.

It is an attempt to put these great baseball minds together and mold some semblance of what is happening around Major League Baseball through its first half of play.

We each submitted our votes, which were then tabulated to come to a final ranking of teams and all major awards for each league, including the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year.

For the team rankings, points were given based on how each team was ranked on individual ballots. If a team was listed first, they received 30 points on down to if a team finished last, they received one point.

Same for the players, we each voted on a top three and the top player was awarded three points, second place two points, and the third place finisher one point.

I want to again thank this month’s participants: Marty Andrade, Nino Colla, Patrick Gallen, Andrew Kneeland, JJ Stankevitz, Bob Warja, and Ben Weixlmann for participating.

This will be a repeated monthly series throughout the season. Enjoy and please feel free to leave your rankings below or comment on ours.

Bleacher Report MLB Team Rankings

1. Boston Red Sox 50-35 (235 points) Last Month: 1

2. Chicago Cubs 50-33 (227) LM: 2

2a. Tampa Bay Rays 50-32 (227) LM: 5

4. LA Angels of Anaheim 49-34 (215) LM: 4

5. Chicago White Sox 47-35 (198) LM: 10

6. St. Louis Cardinals 48-36 (192) LM: 7

7. Oakland Athletics 45-37 (187) LM: 12

8. Minnesota Twins 45-38 (185) LM: 17

9. Milwaukee Brewers 44-38 (174) LM: 21

10. Philadelphia Phillies 44-39 (173) LM: 8

11. New York Yankees 44-39 (167) LM: 20

12. Arizona Diamondbacks 42-41 (142) LM: 3

13. Baltimore Orioles 41-40 (135) LM: 16

14. Florida Marlins 43-39 (132) LM: 6

15. Detroit Tigers 42-40 (131) LM: 23

16. Texas Rangers 43-41 (129) LM: 15

17. Atlanta Braves 40-43 (111) LM: 9

18. New York Mets 40-42 (110) LM: 19

19. Toronto Blue Jays 41-43 (96) LM: 14

20. Cleveland Indians 37-46 (79) LM: 18

20a. Pittsburgh Pirates 38-44 (79) LM: 22

22. Houston Astros 40-43 (73) LM: 11

23. Los Angeles Dodgers 38-44 (72) LM: 13

24. Kansas City Royals 38-45 (66) LM: 25

25. Cincinnati Reds 39-45 (38) LM: 24

26. San Francisco Giants 36-47 (36) LM: 28

27. Colorado Rockies 32-51 (34) LM: 27

28. San Diego Padres 33-51 (21) LM: 30

29. Washington Nationals 33-51 (18) LM: 26

30. Seattle Mariners 31-51 (16) LM: 29

AL MVP

1. Josh Hamilton (19) LM: 1

2. Alex Rodriguez (8) LM: NR

3. Carlos Quentin (7) LM: 2

Others receiving votes: Ian Kinsler (5), Justin Morneau (5), Grady Sizemore (3), Milton Bradley (1)

NL MVP

1. Chase Utley (16) LM: 7

2. Lance Berkman (13) LM: 1

3. Chipper Jones (9) LM: 2

Others receiving votes: Dan Uggla (4), Albert Pujols (3), Derek Lee (1), Ryan Ludwick (1), Nate McLouth (1)

AL Cy Young

1. Cliff Lee (23) LM: 1

2. Joe Saunders (8) LM: 2

3. Roy Halladay (7) LM: 4

Others receiving votes: Justin Duchscherer (6), Shaun Marcum (1), Vicente Padilla (1), Francisco Rodriguez (1), Ervin Santana (1)

NL Cy Young

1. Edinson Volquez (19) LM: 1

2. Tim Lincecum (11) LM: 3

3. Brandon Webb (9) LM: 2

Other receiving votes: Ben Sheets (4), Aaron Cook (2), Ryan Dempster (2), Cole Hamels (1)

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Evan Longoria (18) LM: 6

2. Jacoby Ellsbury (17) LM: 2

3. David Murphy (4) LM: 1

Others receiving votes: Joba Chamberlin (2), Armando Gallarraga (2) James Johnson (2), Alexei Ramirez (2), Nick Blackburn (1)

NL Rookie of the Year

1. Geovany Soto (21) LM: 1

2. Kosuke Fukudome (14) LM: 3

3. Jair Jurrjens(8) LM: 2

Others receiving votes: Joey Votto (4), Brendan Ryan (1)

Defend Your Picks

Marty Andrade: The AL gave a shellacking to the NL during interleague play. I adjusted the standings to include interleague results, and those results push all NL teams way down the charts. The Cubs are the best team in the NL, but they barely rank in the top 10 among all MLB teams.

Nino Colla: Award-wise, Josh Hamilton and Carlos Quentin are still my top two AL MVP candidates, while Justin Morneau jumped into the top three. The top is the same with both the Cy Young and AL Rookie of the Year, Cliff Lee and David Murphy.

Chase Utley, despite his slump, gets the nod for the NL MVP, and I still have Edison Volquez as the NL Cy Young. I have the same three in Soto, Jurrjens, and Votto for NL Rookie.

For the most part, my rankings are the same. Boston and Chicago are the top two teams. The Astros and Indians took some big falls, and despite the break down of their pitching lately, I've moved the Pirates up into the top 20.

My biggest dive was probably the Dodgers, who can't seem to win without Rafael Furcal.

Patrick Gallen: You just have to give it to the Tampa Bay Rays. They keep holding steady near or at the top of the entire league, not to mention the AL East. I picked them first because I'm excited about what they are doing. I really hope they overtake BOS and NYY this year.

Josh Hamilton is still doing it. He has slowed down a bit, but he really isn’t used to playing this much. Hopefully, he keeps up the amazing pace. I would love to see a triple crown.

I wanted to put Justin Duchscherer first, but I still believe Roy Halladay is the most important pitcher to his team. He eats up innings and will give you a great start nearly every time out.

Longoria is very, very close to overtaking Ellsbury in the rookie voting, as Ellsbury's steals have really gone down. How nasty is Tim Lincecum? It’s ridiculous.

Soto has been a godsend behind the plate for the first-place Cubs. Look out for Milwaukee, they are on a mission. Chase Utley still deserves the MVP. When he slumps, the Phils slump.

Andrew Kneeland: I still firmly believe that Berkman is ahead of Jones in the NL MVP race. People get all excited when talking about his great batting average, which, nearing .400, is outstanding. Berkman has a great average as well, currently at .360. Batting average may look good on paper, but it doesn't translate to runs or wins for your team.

Berkman has 16 more RBI than Jones has. That, in itself, could account for around 10 games. I believe that the term MVP defines someone who is helping their team win the most, or someone who is the most crucial for their teams' success. Berkman is doing that in Houston.

JJ Stankevitz: With the American League's dominance over the National League, just one out of my top seven teams in baseball comes from the Senior Circuit (Cubs at No. 4).

The only easy awards I gave out were AL Cy Young (Cliff Lee) and NL Rookie of the Year (Geovany Soto). Tim Lincecum is starting to catch up to Edinson Volquez, although I still put Volquez at No. 1.

The AL MVP goes to Josh Hamilton right now because the Rangers wouldn't be a .500 team without him, but Justin Morneau (2) and Carlos Quentin (3) have been two huge reasons why their teams are playoff contenders.

The NL MVP still goes to Utley, despite his recent slump. Evan Longoria beats out Alexei Ramirez (2) and Jacoby Ellsbury (3), but this was a close one. This one was much more of a toss-up than I expected, as Ramirez's play has directly coincided with the White Sox's offense heating up, and Ellsbury has done a fine job for Boston, stealing 34 bases and only getting caught four times.

In the end, though, Longoria wins out thanks to his 15 HR and 47 RBI, plus his sparkling defense heading into June 29.

Michael Taylor: With the Diamondbacks falling flat on their faces last month, the Cubs moved one spot to first overall on my board. They are a complete team that will be tough to beat in the NL.

Also of note, I have the Yankees and Tigers moving in to the top 10 with their recent surges.

The MVP race in the American League has tightened as Rodriguez was healthy and had his first big month, while Berkman still rules the NL. I also believe Ian Kinsler should start being noticed in MVP talks. He is having a terrific all-around season.

The Cy Young is in a dead heat in both leagues. I have Lee over Halladay in the AL, and Lincecum over Volquez in the NL.

Evan Longoria is now running away with the AL rookie honors after his big month of June, while Fukudome passes Soto for the NL honor.

Bob Warja: Although I strongly maintain that the MVP should come from a division-winning team, thus far, no one is truly standing out from the rest in the AL or NL. I have Utley in there for the NL, but he's barely hanging on.

I hate to admit it, but Pujols is very valuable to the Cards, and if they were to win it or come close, he might end up winning, though I hope not.

In the AL, again, Quentin is the closest I can come to someone who's performing at a high level for a division-leading team. But I still must put Hamilton in the top spot. If anyone ever wins the Triple Crown again, he deserves the MVP, regardless of where the team ends up.

Ben Weixlmann: In my mind, although the New York Yankees have struggled, third baseman Alex Rodriguez deserves the AL MVP award. Sure, Josh Hamilton has been on a tear all season, but Rodriguez is clearly the best player in the American League.

The MVP, standing for Most Valuable Player, certainly fits Rodriguez's role thus far for the Bronx Bombers, as he has been keeping them in contention in the tough AL East; whereas Hamilton's ball club, the Texas Rangers, are barely over .500 on the season.

Tribe Talk: Cleveland Indians On the Block?

Michael Taylor — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 17:17:39 -0400

Welcome to Tribe Talk, a season-long look at the trials and tribulations of the Cleveland Indians from the views of the loyal Tribe fans here on Bleacher Report.

I would like to thank my fellow Indians community leader, Nino Colla, and this week’s participants, Samantha Bunten and Dr. Jeff Poove’, for pitching in their takes.

This discussion is not just meant for the included Indians fans. Please feel free to comment on any of the questions or any of our answers below.

As the Indians continue to slide down the American League Central standings, we will now begin to discuss who the Indians should start to put on the trading block.

We already know that Sabathia will be up for grabs, but who else should be a target? Also, who is the team MVP, and which song would you like as your theme if you were a major leaguer coming to bat?

Without further ado, let's talk Tribe!

We have hit the midpoint of the season, and it is time to shell out some awards. Who is your team MVP so far? Who is the biggest disappointment?

Samantha Bunten: I would give the MVP to Lee or Sabathia. Lee has done an excellent job of proving he's returned to form, and Sabathia, well, he's proving he's worth big money as a free agent, and at least we're getting some benefit from it while we can.

As far as the biggest disappointment, the easy answer is Pronk. But if injuries really are the cause of his poor performance, maybe the award should instead go to the bullpen. These guys look absolutely nothing like they did last season. I expected far better.

Nino Colla: Can we just say Cliff Lee and be done with it? I don't think anyone has to even provide a reason.

The biggest disappointment is much harder. How about Ryan Garko or Rafael Betancourt. Considering this isn't "most surprising disappointment," I'd have to give the nod to Raffy Right.

I didn't expect him to light the world on fire like he did last year, and unlike some, I still remember when he was mediocre the previous years. He's been downright awful this year. I'm disappointed he's been this bad, really.

Garko is one of my favorite players, so to see the consistency thing continue into 2008 frustrates me. He swings a good bat, but for some reason he is one of the most up and down, hot-and-cold players I've ever seen.

Doctor Poove’: Cliff Lee has to be the team MVP, with Sizemore a close second. In Sizemore, you always knew he was capable of the run he's on right now.

With Lee, after the disastrous 2007, and the fact that many thought he had an awful attitude after his demotion, the fact that he has pitched so phenomenally for the entire season is incredible. He has been dominant in all but a few starts and is one of the few Indians who looks focused and has been dialed in all year.

Biggest disappointment is Jhonny Peralta, by a nose over Rafael Betancourt. While you can expect young players like Asdrubal Cabrera and Franklin Gutierrez to struggle in their second season, and bullpen work can be up and down from year to year, although saying Betancourt is awful is an insult to awful, Peralta's performance this year is a microcosm of the team in 2008.

After a stellar 2007, when Jhonny looked to finally "get it", he has reverted back to his 2006 form. He looks lazy in the field, bouncing routine throws to first from time to time, his plate discipline is awful, as he is swinging at breaking pitches away once again, and he just doesn't look focused when you watch him play.

Throw in the lack of production with men on base, a large number of strikeouts, and poor at-bats and poor swings in hitters' counts, and he is sickening to watch. The classic "has all the talent but doesn't live up to it" player.

Michael Taylor: I feel dumb for even asking the question, because it has to be Cliff Lee for everybody. I just can't imagine where this team would be if not for his 11-1 record. We'd still be in last place, but not even close to the Royals!

Other than Lee, you would have to go Sizemore. He continues to do everything that makes him great. Hits for power, steals bases, and make amazing catches in center field.

My biggest disappointment has got to be Ryan Garko. He was supposed to continue his development into being a middle-of-the-lineup power producer this season. Many were projecting upwards of 30 home runs and 100 RBI. He has been very inconsistent and is barely keeping his average above .240, and he only has six home runs.

We've all heard the talk about C.C. Sabathia. It has been retread so many times it is sickening. Besides C.C., which Indians player would you be looking to move over the next month?

Samantha Bunten: I like Gutierrez, so I would hate to lose him, but we do have enough talent in the outfield to trade someone. Gutierrez could probably bring us someone decent in return. I'm not ready to throw in the towel on our season yet, but our front office tends to underreact to everything, so it would be nice if for once, they actually did something proactive.

Nino Colla: Casey Blake, without a question. He has value, he's a free agent, he leads the team in RBI, and you have the biggest question mark on your team playing behind him. We need to find out about Andy Marte, and in order for Wedge to actually do that, we have to get Casey Blake off this team.

He won't be back next year. I think he will want a good chunk of change that the Indians shouldn't pay him. You can get something for Casey Blake, so go ahead and do it.

Doctor Poove’: Unfortunately, it is Casey Blake. Only because I think the Indians can get a good return on him. I am not a Casey Blake basher, of which there are many. I just don't think he is an everyday MLB third baseman.

He is, however, a very valuable part of the team, who can play four or five times a week at multiple positions to give guys days off, or spell a guy in a slump and still be productive. A smart, contending team will see the value in that and make a play for him.

Shapiro should listen to all offers for people not named Sizemore, Martinez, or Carmona.

Michael Taylor: You have to move Casey Blake right now. He is a free agent at the end of the season, and there should be no plans on re-signing him anyway. He is a valuable commodity as a utility player who can play first, third, or either corner outfield positions.

Plus, right now, he has great stats for himself. I could not believe my eyes when I saw the .281 average, and he remains the team leader in RBI.

As much as I have grown to respect Blake as both a player and individual, it is time to move on. There will be a contender somewhere looking for that veteran presence to come off of the bench and provide key hits, which is something that he has done very well this season.

Mercifully, the interleague season is now over. The Indians were the only AL Central team to have a losing record against the National League, and by a wide margin. Why do you think the Indians struggled so much in the games?

Samantha Bunten: I know we can't just blame Wedge for everything that goes wrong, but I really think our poor interleague performance has a lot to do with his style of management.

Wedge is too slow to make adjustments, and he consistently makes bad decisions about when to pull pitchers, use pinch hitters, and how to move runners. This is a problem against any opponent, but the issue is particularly glaring when we face NL opponents who are more accustomed to this style of play.

Or maybe we just stink.

Nino Colla: I don't know, but I'm just glad to see it end. Interleague is always a tricky thing; there are always teams that struggle and ones that do amazingly well. The Twins and Tigers have used it to get back into the race. The Indians have used it to get out of it. I'm glad to see it end, because for whatever reason, when they started interleague play, they just died.

Or the reason they struggled is maybe because they actually aren't very good. Who knows now a days, you know?

Doctor Poove’: You give them too much credit. Worst interleague record in MLB. 6-12. The Tribe normally thrives versus the NL, but not so in 2008. Why? They aren't a very good team, duh, but they just couldn't get any one phase going.

They had some bad outings from starters (Byrd, Sowers and even Laffey), which has not been the norm. So the bullpen was used earlier and more often, as is does in the NL parks, so the inconsistencies of the pen were more evident.

Plus, runs are at more of a premium in the NL, and we all know the Tribe's problems there, so the NL teams and their "small ball" decreased the already microscopic margin of error for the Tribe.

Michael Taylor: The Indians are typically very good in interleague play, but as we have seen, this is no typical season. I think a lot of it has to do with how the season progressed.

They were treading water and staying in the race before interleague began, but once guys started going down with injuries, and the team started losing, everything snowballed. It just happened to have come against the National League teams.

Plus, when we're not able to score, thus putting pressure on a below-average bullpen, that hurts. Especially in low scoring, close games as they have played. I just think that it has shown the Indians for what they are this season, a bad team.

Player Debate of the Week: Jeremy Sowers

Sowers is a former first-round selection that the Indians that flew through the minor-league system within two years, and had great success in 2006. Since then, he has struggled in most major-league starts and has an ERA of 5.97 in six starts this season, entering Monday night. Do you still see him as a pitcher who can succeed? If not, what would you do with Sowers?

Samantha Bunten: I'm not totally prepared to give up on Sowers. I just don't think he's ready. The fact that he catapulted through the system so quickly could be part of the problem. I really think players who are rushed, especially pitchers, suffer tremendously in the majors if they aren't prepared to be there.

Sowers may be one of those guys whose talent looked major-league ready, but who wasn't mentally prepared to handle the pressure yet.

Nino Colla: Nope, which sucks because Sowers is the type of pitcher I like. He is a smart kid who has a game plan for the most part. Yet, for whatever reason, he just isn't very good. The league has the book on the kid and he has not adjusted, which is surprising for a guy like Sowers.

This team has pitching-depth problems, with two free agents and an injured starter, so you can't exactly ship him off. I think a trade in the offseason needs to be explored though, especially if we get some near MLB-ready pitching for C.C.

Doctor Poove’: Yes, there is still hope for Professor Sowers. He is still young, he barely has two seasons under his belt, and he showed he could pitch during 2006. Last year, he struggled, which young pitchers do. This year, he has been up and down to Buffalo so much I don't think he has settled in.

He knows Carmona is coming back after the All-Star break, and I think it shows. That's why they need to make a decision on C.C. and Byrd now, rather than later. It will give them the proper setting to accurately evaluate Sowers.

Michael Taylor: I want to believe. Sowers was projected by many to be a great pitcher, but sometimes it just doesn't happen. He did have a solid start last week, pitching seven innings, and he was able to get out of some jams.

He's starting to figure it out, but the league has adjusted to him and he has not been able to re-adjust. I hate to think it is because of his lack of velocity and stuff, but what else could there be.

He is a smart individual who has the desire to succeed, he just can't rely on any one pitch to get outs. He will be a back-of-the-rotation starter who will likely bounce around a bit in his career. For right now, he sticks in the rotation to see what he has. You never know.

Fun Question of the Week:

If you were a player and could pick any song to come to bat to, or come out of the bullpen to, what song would you choose?

Samantha Bunten: Whatever song the opposing pitcher hates the most.

Nino Colla: I'm not a big music guy, so this is going to take me wrestling around with the question for five minutes to give you an answer. I'd pick something stupid or silly...maybe one of those YouTube remixes of Bill O'Reilly saying "We'll Do It Live! F' It!" That's how screwed up I am.

Ryan Garko has the right idea, he let's C.C. pick his walk up music, that's probably what I'd end up doing, and even though I hate rap, that's probably what I'd end up coming out to. I'd have to pick someone who doesn't like rap of course.

My favorite musician is a guy named Stephen Lynch, and he is a comedic singer. That tells you all you need to know about my taste in music, which is not very good. Now that I think about it...I'd like to come out to "Mark Out" by Nedly Mandingo.

Doctor Poove’: "Ain't Talkin' 'Bout Love" by Van Halen The guitar rift at the beginning always gets me pumped, the bass beat is amazing, and it has all the classic David Lee Roth high-pitched screams that give you goosebumps. I think that would make a better entrance song for a closer than a batter. Get the crowd rocking and juiced up for the ninth inning.

A close second..."Somebody Get Me A Doctor" by Van Halen. But that goes without saying.

Michael Taylor: I always enjoy the players' song that they get introduced to. It is a peek into their personality. My wife would always identify to Thome or a Fryman who came to the plate with some country song.

I, on the other hand, love rock music and enjoy hearing the likes of "Hells Bells" as Trevor Hoffman enters a game or "Enter Sandman", even though it is for Mariano Rivera.

If I were to choose, I would have to choose a song from one of my favorite bands, the Foo Fighters. They have so many great songs to choose from, but "Everlong" or "The Pretender" would be my top two. Maybe even add in some Audioslave with "Cochise".

Roto Chronicles: American League, June 30

Michael Taylor — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 05:09:00 -0400

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

Carl Crawford, OF—TB (UP) Since serving his four-game suspension and giving his knee a break, Crawford has been on fire. He has hit .347 with four home runs and 11 RBI. He is showing the first signs of a power stroke that had been virtually missing this season. While I wouldn’t expect this power trend to continue as such, the overall batting average will continue to rise. On the season, Crawford has shown more discipline and increased contact rates. This will allow the batting average to again creep up into the .300 range.

Evan Longoria, 3B—TB (UP) Those who took the chance on Longoria and waited out his May slump are reaping the rewards. He has adjusted to major-league pitching quite well. Longoria is hitting .271 with 15 home runs, 47 RBI, and 41 runs scored. Seven of these home runs have come in the month of June. He will undoubtedly have some more ups and downs due to his high 26 percent strikeout rate, but with each passing day, the 2008 Longoria is getting closer to looking like the 2007 Ryan Braun.

Vladimir Guerrero, OF—LAA (UP) While I still believe that Vladimir Guerrero is in the decline phase in his career, what looked much worse six weeks ago has been righted. I was ready to write off Guerrero and his early-season slump. He was continuing to show less power, a decreasing BABIP, and was now showing an increasing strikeout rate. While the strikeout rate is still higher than at any point in his career, he has bounced back in both the power department and BABIP. His HR/FB is back above 15 percent and his BABIP is over .300. For the month of June, Guerrero is hitting .395 with six home runs and 15 RBI. I would expect his number to level off right about where they are, around a .290 average, with a shot at 30 home runs and 100 RBI.

Eric Chavez, 3B—OAK (DOWN) Same old story with Chavez. There are a few flashes of what he used too be, but his inability to stay healthy leads to a lack of production. Since returning, Chavez has only hit .259 with two home runs, including just three hits over his last 21 at-bats. His most recent slump is directly correlated to a recurrence of soreness in his surgically-repaired shoulder from this past offseason. This is also likely to explain the continued decrease in power and increase in ground balls hit. If you have not already, I would move on and just put Chavez on your watch list until he actually proves he is healthy.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C—TEX (DOWN) When Gerald Laird went down to an injury, this was supposed to be the time for Saltalamacchia to seize the day and win the full-time job. What has he done? Well, since taking over every day, Salty as I will call him, has just three hits in 20 at-bats. For the season, he is now hitting .214, with three home runs and 16 RBI. The main reason for this is a terribly high 35 percent strikeout rate. There is virtually no chance that he will ever have a decent batting average until he finds a way to cut down on those. Plus, the tremendous power has not been there. He has a very modest 8.3 percent HR/FB rate. Pass on him and find a catcher help elsewhere.

Jason Varitek, C—BOS (DOWN) The captain is having a month to forget at the plate. Varitek has hit just .127 with a home run and five RBI. This has brought his average all of the way down to .225 on the season. He should still be owned in two-catcher leagues, but I wouldn’t have very high expectations for him the rest of the way. His eye has decreased, as his walks have gone down while he still strikes out 27 percent of the time. He also has a very low line-drive rate of 12 percent, which should rise, but in the end, I would not expect much more than a .250 average with 13-15 home runs.

Pitchers

Justin Duchscherer, SP—OAK (UP) He just keeps on looking better and better with each start he makes. Duchscherer has now lowered his league-leading ERA under 2.00, and he is looking like a top-of-the-line fantasy pitcher. He has lost some of his strikeout ability in his conversion to a starter, but continues to show groundball tendencies, great control, and a knack for keeping the ball inside of the yard. I would expect some regression as the season goes along, his line drive rate of 22.6 percent should be leading to a much higher BABIP than .229. Plus, will his arm continue to hold up for the remainder of the season? These are both valid reasons to maybe start shopping the right-hander. Though, right now, I stick with him. He is one of the hottest pitchers in the game.

Matt Garza, SP—TB (UP) Listed last week in the waiver section of this column, Garza has moved into the "UP" section. Garza showcased his skills in a one-hit, dominating performance, with 10 strikeouts against the Marlins last week. In his past three starts covering 22 innings, Garza has an ERA of 2.05 with 21 strikeouts and only four walks. He will obviously not continue this sort of success in the long haul, but I would continue to expect numbers good enough to be a back of the rotation starter on any fantasy team. He should finish the season somewhere in the range of 13-14 wins with an ERA around 4.00.

C.C. Sabathia, SP—CLE (UP) A truly remarkable season is being masked by a lack of run support and a horrible four starts. On Apr. 13, Sabathia was 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA. Since that date, Sabathia has compiled a 6-5 record, but has an ERA of 1.96. He also leads the league with 118 strikeouts. If not for Cleveland's terrible offense, Sabathia would easily have at least two or three more wins. On the season, Sabathia is showing exactly the same ratios as last season, with more strikeouts, and more walks. However, the inflated number of walks is directly related to his poor start to the season. Over his past 13 starts, Sabathia has 18 total walks. That’s it. If there remains any doubt that C.C. Sabathia can’t handle pressure, then someone isn’t paying attention.

Edwin Jackson, SP—TB (DOWN) The only reason Edwin Jackson should be looked at is if you need a spot start when he has a favorable matchup. He has no baseline of skills that present Jackson as a must own. He has a poor 1.36 K/BB ratio, and a tendency to give up at least a hit an inning. This leads to a terrible WHIP and a less than tolerable ERA. Jackson has put together a few brilliant starts on the season, but they are few and far between. Over Jackson’s past seven starts, he is 2-3 with an ERA of 6.82. Not what you are looking for, even from a spot starter. I stay away.

Darrell Rasner, SP—NYY (DOWN) After cruising through his first four starts, Rasner has posted a 1-5 record and an ERA of 6.47 over his past six starts. This has been terrible, but I still like his potential to be a worthy fantasy starter. He is still showing solid command with a 2.71 K/BB ratio, and has been able to keep the ball in the ballpark with a 7.7 percent HR/FB rate. He will continue to give up at least a hit an inning with a line-drive rate of over 21 percent. In the end, I would still project around a 4.25 ERA and 10-12 wins.

Javier Vazquez, SP—CHW (DOWN) He's unhittable at times. But then there are times when Vazquez can’t buy an out. Right now is one of those times. Over his past five starts, Vazquez is 2-2, and has an ERA of 7.48. In these five starts, Vazquez has walked 15 batters over a total of 27.2 innings. This is out of character for a guy who typically walks just over two per nine innings. He is still showing good velocity, and he's striking out the usual amount of batters. This is likely just one of those bad stretches a pitcher will have. Wait it out and don’t push the panic button. He will be just fine.

INJURY REPORT

Another big name went down this week as Tigers' outfielder Magglio Ordonez was placed on the disabled list with a pulled, right oblique muscle. He should be on schedule to return after the All-Star break. In the meantime, Matt Joyce will be getting some extra playing time.

The Yankees placed Hideki Matsui on the disabled list Friday. He had been battling a sore left knee that had kept him out of the lineup since June 22. He should be back around the All-Star break, likely just after. Wilson Betemit should benefit by getting some time at first base.

Paul Konerko is scheduled to begin a brief rehab assignment with AAA Charlotte this week. He is eligible to be activated today, but will return by the weekend, assuming all goes as planned during rehab.

This is getting beyond ridiculous and you would have to assume Hank Blalock is completely frustrated. As he was scheduled to come back from the DL for a third time, he suffered another setback with his wrist on a swing during a rehab start. Blalock will miss at least another two weeks, maybe longer.

Felix Hernandez missed his turn in the rotation on Sunday with a sprained ankle that he had suffered earlier in the week. He is tentatively scheduled for his next start, but keep a close eye on his situation.

The Twins placed outfielder Michael Cuddyer on the disabled list for the second time this season. He has a strained tendon in his left index finger. He will be out until at least the All-Star break.

Brandon Inge was placed on the disabled list last Monday after pulling an oblique muscle. He was of little fantasy value other than his multiple-position eligibility, but this move will have Ivan Rodriguez back into full-time catching duties.

David DeJesus is listed as day-to-day after coming out of a game Sunday with some bruised ribs. Joey Gathright will get time in center field while DeJesus sits.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

Chris Davis, 1B—TEX I am not usually one who is big on adding young rookies to a roster, but when a guy has been as hot as Chris Davis has been over the first half of the season, coming from AA to the majors, he is worth a look. Especially when he has the power that Davis has. Davis hit 23 home runs in 297 at-bats this season in the minors. He also has hit two home runs over his first four days in the majors. Be realistic when adding him. He will strikeout a lot, limiting his average, but you never know. He could be lightning in a bottle.

Nick Swisher, OF—CHW I continue to be amazed that Nick Swisher is not owned in more leagues. I said it a few weeks back, and will say it again to readers. Nick Swisher must be owned in all leagues. Here is his stat line over the past month: .307 average, five home runs, and 18 RBI. That is not tremendous, but when a guy also gets on base via walks as much as Swisher, he will add runs. He has 21 to date in June, which is fourth in the league. As he continues to heat up, the home runs will come. You won’t be disappointed.

Dana Eveland, SP—OAK It looks as if Eveland has gotten over the command issues he had a few weeks ago when he walked 13 batter over two starts. Since then, Eveland has just walked seven over 20.1 innings and has allowed just four runs. On the season, Eveland is now 6-5 with a 3.34 ERA. Eveland is not a strikeout pitcher, nor does he have the greatest command, but what has led to a significant amount of his success is his 47.6 percent groundball rate to go along with a low 3.3 percent HR/FB rate. Eveland’s next start will come against the Angels, who have struggled to score runs of late.

Nate Robertson, SP—DET If you like to spot start one of your pitching spots, then I would take a look at Nate Robertson. It is true that he gives up hits, but he is a pitcher who has some solid command of the strike zone with a 2.36 K/BB ratio. He has also been getting groundballs again, which makes him an effective pitcher. In June, Robertson has a 3-1 record with a 3.77 ERA. As the Tigers continue to warm up, this will only increase the chances that he will have opportunities to continue winning games. His is a two-start pitcher this week in Minnesota and Seattle.

FUTURES MARKET

Well, Francisco Liriano is still down at AAA after it looked like a call-up was impending a few weeks back. Since then, he has had two sub-par starts. The latest showing was a five-run affair, allowing nine hits in 5.1 innings pitched, even though Liriano is still continuing to show improved command. He still has walked more than one batter just once in his past nine starts.

The Royals have recalled 1B/DH Billy Butler to replace Alberto Callaspo on the roster. Butler should begin to see some regular time once again, as he tore up the Pacific Coast League while in AAA. He hit .337 with five home runs in 101 at-bats.

The Indians sent Asdrubal Cabrera down to AAA Buffalo a few weeks ago to allow him to regain the confidence that he showed last season. Cabrera was only hitting .184 with the Indians upon the demotion this season. Since then, Cabrera is hitting .375 with a home run and five RBI in 72 at-bats. Though, with Jamey Carroll doing a fine job in Cleveland, Cabrera may be down for a while.

One of the many Tampa Bay pitching prospects went down for the season this week. AA left-hander Jacob McGee was experiencing shoulder soreness and it was later revealed he had torn a ligament and needs to have Tommy John surgery. This will set him back at least a year-and-a-half. On the season, McGee was 6-4 with a 3.94 ERA.

Boston's first-base prospect Lars Anderson is having a terrific month of June, with the exception of hitting home runs. In June, Anderson is hitting .352 with six doubles and 14 RBI, but has just one home run, which is supposed to be a developing skill. It is likely one of those anomalies in baseball, but is an interesting note. Anderson had seven home runs coming into June. For the season he is hitting .304 with eight home runs and 37 RBI.

The roller-coaster ride of Gio Gonzalez’ first season in AAA continues. After posting a fine 3.91 ERA in April, Gonzalez came back with a very poor May with an ERA of 6.46. June was looking much better, as Gonzalez had three quality starts in a row, including an eight-inning performance where he struck out 12, but his latest start brought him back down. He allowed six runs on seven hits, walking four in just 2.2 innings.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

Buy—Miguel Cabrera, 3B—DET We keep waiting for the big breakout, but it never comes. It's not as if Cabrera is having a horrific season, but by his standards, 2008 has been a disappointment. To date, Cabrera has just an .809 OPS after having an OPS near or above .950 each of the last three seasons. Is it the switch to the American League, or is it just one of those seasons? It’s hard to say, but what is showing this season is a decreased line-drive rate to 17.7 percent, which has lead to a decreased BABIP to .317. Add in a decrease in HR/FB rate to 11.2 percent and we now see why both the average and power numbers are down. Though, there is still hope as those numbers have a lot of variability in them. Also, Cabrera’s eye at the plate, and GB/FB rates, is very similar to previous levels. He is still too good of a hitter and power producer to slump away for a whole season. Expect a bounce back in the second half of the season and Cabrera to be a top-25 player again.

Sell—Jon Lester, SP—BOS No disrespect to Lester and his tremendous story, but in fantasy terms, I don’t see Lester getting much more value this season than right now. He had a tremendous run of eleven starts in a row before Saturday night where he didn’t allow more than three runs in any start. For a young pitcher, that is tremendous, but if I have learned anything, young is hardly consistent. He may prove this wrong, but with his less-than-ideal 1.67 K/BB ratio, I would assume some hiccups are on the way. Case in point, Saturday night's start in Houston where Lester allowed six runs in five innings. His fielding independent ERA of 3.96 does not align with his 3.48 ERA, and it shows some hints of luck in BABIP and strand rate. I still see Lester as a solid middle-to-back-end of the rotation starter on a fantasy team, with the possibility for 13-15 wins. Though, right now, try to up-sell him.

RANKING OF THE WEEK—TOP 20 ELIGIBLE AL STARTING PITCHERS

1. Josh Beckett, BOS

2. Roy Halladay, TOR

3. C.C. Sabathia, CLE

4. John Lackey, LAA

5. Rich Harden, OAK

6. Cliff Lee, CLE

7. Scott Kazmir, TB

8. Felix Hernandez, SEA

9. Ervin Santana, LAA

10. Justin Duchscherer, OAK

11. Erik Bedard, SEA

12. Shaun Marcum, TOR - DL

13. James Shields, TB

14. Javier Vazquez, CHW

15. Justin Verlander, DET

16. Joe Saunders, LAA

17. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS

18. Joba Chamberlin, NYY

19. Jered Weaver, LAA

20. Zack Greinke, KC

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For the National League and more news and history from Major League Baseball, visit SEAMHEADS.com

A Day In the Press Box

Michael Taylor — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 07:47:26 -0400

Tuesday night, I was lucky enough to be able to cover a Cleveland Indians game against the San Francisco Giants as a credentialed member of the press. It was most special to me as it was the return to Cleveland of one of my all-time favorite players, Omar Vizquel.

I had circled that game on my calendar as the one I would choose to attend, at first as a fan, but after being brought on as a contributor to Seamheads.com, things changed.

Through its association with Baseball Digest Daily, I was able to ask for credentials to major-league games. So it was obvious which one I would choose to attend.

It was a surreal experience to say the least. You dream of these opportunities, but rarely does anyone get to experience it.

I live in Columbus, so it was a decent drive, about two-and-a-half hours, up route 71 to Progressive Field. Game time was 7:05, but I was to be there at 4:30 to attend Vizquel’s press conference.

I left my job at 1:00 to begin my quest, after daydreaming all morning of what was to come. I had everything I thought necessary packed away in my bag. I had a laptop, notebook paper, emails showing proof that Indians’ Media Director Bart Swain approved my credential in case of questioning, among other items.

During my drive up, I realized one thing that I was missing. If I were to get any audio or do any interview, I would need a digital audio recorder. So I had to stop off on the way at a Wal-Mart off of the highway to pick one up.

After getting back into the car, I realized that I took a little more time than I should and needed to hurry along. I rushed up the highway (only 10 MPH over the limit), and took an exit to take the Rapid Transit train into town. The time was 4:00.

I had a half-hour to get to the stadium, and the train would take 15 minutes to get me into downtown, where I would then have to walk a few blocks to the stadium and find out where to go.

To skip ahead a little, I finally got to the media gate at 4:25 with a few minutes until the news conference. My mind was focused on just trying to keep moving, but I had to be checked by security. They checked my bag and ID and then gave me my badge for the night.

After checking out my badge for a few seconds, and thinking how cool this was about to become, I quickly walked on to where I could get down to the stadium's service level. I walked by the security guard without any questioning and continued on my way.

I had no idea where this room was, but having had experience in another sporting venue, I knew I could figure it out. They are actually quite simple.

I ran through the service corridor past the Indians' clubhouse, then the Giants' Clubhouse, the Dugout Suites, and then finally came to the Press Room at 4:33.

I was only three minutes late, not as bad as it could have been, but I still missed Omar’s entrance.

As I opened the door and peeked in, there sat Vizquel at the front of the room, answering a question about his favorite memories in Cleveland. I looked around and just was in awe at first. Was I really here? I have only seen these interviews through a camera lens on the television. I totally felt out of place.

Omar continued to answer questions as I got my notepad and audio recorder out, which I learned to use in the car on the way up, and started to record and take notes. I wanted to take a picture, but wasn’t sure if I could at that point. It was all focused on Omar’s words.

The rest of the conference lasted about ten minutes or so. He then got down off of the podium and walked back out of the room right by me.

The mass of media continued to follow him down the hallway as he entered the Giants locker room to begin getting himself ready.

I had no idea what to do here, so I just continued to follow. I ended up going down through the Indians' clubhouse and out onto the field for pregame batting practice.

Walking though those hallways, I could not help myself but to think of the Albert Belle tantrums that were thrown back there. Don’t ask me why, but that’s what was going through my mind.

We ended up going up a set of stairs and into the dugout. Wow! I just entered the Indians' dugout. Once again, it was soak it all in time. I got out of the way and just took my time looking around.

The Indians were on the field, taking their batting practice, Cleveland media personalities like Mark Schwab, Andre Knott, Tony Rizzo, Matt Underwood, and others were walking around me.

I knew I could take pictures here, so I started taking some. I then saw Eric Wedge come into the dugout, and the media swarmed him. I knew what was up. It was his pregame conference. So it was time to get out the recorder and paper again.

I wanted to ask a question, but I was totally out of it. I admit, I was nervous. If I spoke I was going to screw up. So I kept my mouth shut and listened to his discussions of new free-agent signings, where the injured Indians were in their rehabs, his memories of Omar, and much more.

And again, it was totally surreal. I usually am sitting at home watching this. I never thought I would be sitting two seats down in the dugout hearing this.

After he finished, I stuck around the field a little while longer, getting more shots as the Indians came off of the field and Omar and the Giants came out. Vizquel came over to the Indians' side for an interview on a local television station, and I took more pictures of him as I was standing on the dugout steps. More on this detail later.

After hanging around the dugout and watching the players a while longer, I walked back into the clubhouse and dipped my head into the batting cages for a second to see if anyone was there, but there was no one. I then went back into the locker room to see if anyone was talking.

Inside the locker room were a few guys: Jamey Carroll, Grady Sizemore, Ryan Garko, and some coaches. Nobody was talking at the time, so I looked around, noticed video of that night's starter Jonathan Sanchez on the big screens. Carroll was focused in on it. I didn’t want to nose around too much and get into trouble, so I left and went to find the Press Box.

It was dinnertime, and I needed something to eat before the game. I took the elevator up to the press level and walked down the hallway and found the dining room. I signed in and paid my $10 for dinner. I had a choice of jerk chicken, hamburger or hot dog. I went hamburger, finished plating up, and found a seat.

I look over to my left, and there’s Bob Feller! Holy Crap. I had to keep telling myself, “you can’t ask for an autograph, Michael.” Then, I look up and see Giants and ESPN broadcaster Jon Miller walk in. He went over to Feller and started a conversation. Was I really sitting here?

You want to go be a part of that conversation, but know you have no business to. So I continued eating while witnessing more local media types, Bruce Drennan and others, come through.

I did have a nice conversation from a sports editor at a Norwalk newspaper, Mike Grecco. He was very nice and we talked about the Indians, Ohio State football, and I asked him questions about how things work. He was a big help to me, and he gave me some tips on what to watch for the rest of the night.

As game time drew near, I walked on down the hall, signed into the press box, found my assigned seat and set myself up.

I went back to the information table where they provide rosters, press releases, and media guides, and picked up as much information as I could for reading. I still haven’t read much of it, but I had to pick it up.

During the game, I wrote my article for the night focusing on Vizquel’s return. To be honest, I didn’t watch most of the game. I was busy writing and thinking of how amazing this day was. I could not focus on the game.

I completed my article around the eighth inning, and I then watched the end of the game. The Indians would go on to lose as Vizquel had a squeeze bunt that scored the eventual winning run. It was only appropriate. He was the one who brought the fans to the ballpark, and he was the one who started sending them home with that bunt.

After the game, I went downstairs and wanted to get into the Giants' locker room to witness Vizquel’s postgame interview.

We waited there for about five minutes until the Giants allowed the media in. During this wait, Indians' general manager Mark Shapiro walked by with a very disturbed look on his face. He didn’t even take a look over at any of the media; he just kept walking. One could only assume what was circling in his mind at that point.

When entering the locker room, I began to see multiple Giants’ players walking around, eating their postgame dinners, coming from the showers, sitting at their lockers, watching the Cubs game on the big screen, or playing Golden Tee golf. In the background was some rap music that I admit to having never heard.

Omar was nowhere to be found.

To kill the time, I got into a conversation with Andre Knott about the Indians and how the season was going. He is a local radio personality that I have listened to many times. It was very odd to speak face-to-face with him. He is just a regular guy who is a big sports fan just like anyone else.

After about 15-20 minutes of waiting for Vizquel, he finally came to his locker. He knew there was going to be a mass quantity of media there, but you could sense he was ready to be done with that part of the day.

Being the great pro that he is, he still gave an excellent interview. He talked of the video tribute that the Indians gave him before the game, and how he was surprised that they put a couple of home runs on the reel of highlights.

When Vizquel was finished with the interviews, I went back down the hall towards the Indians' locker room, but could not get in. I had missed my chance to see the Indians. That was a major bummer to me, but I couldn’t complain. The main reason I came up to cover the game was to witness the special evening of Omar Vizquel.

I saw him in every aspect that I could: pregame press conference, on the field, and in the locker room after the game. It was truly a night I will never forget.

And to top it all off, the next morning, after reviewing some of the AP game coverage about last night’s game, I found a picture that was very intriguing.

Remember how I was taking pictures of Vizquel on the field during an interview?

Well the picture I found on Yahoo! that morning was from the exact opposite angle as mine. I was in the background of the AP picture taken by Tony Dejak, posted on at least Yahoo!. I am standing on the dugout steps, playing with my camera and wearing a red striped shirt.

It is not a big deal, as nobody would really know that, but to me, I had to save that and send it to everyone I knew. If they didn’t believe that I did cover the game, here’s a picture as proof!

Omar Vizquel’s Golden Return to Cleveland

Michael Taylor — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 18:33:07 -0400

On the face of it, Tuesday night was just another game at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario on a late June evening. At the heart of it, Tuesday night at Progressive Field was a celebration of the Indians' past.

One of Cleveland’s all-time local heroes, Omar Vizquel, was home.

Omar was an integral part of the great Indians teams of the late ‘90s that consistently were in contention for World Series titles.

These were teams that won over the hearts of a town yearning for a contender. Before this era of Indians baseball, the last time the Indians had won any sort of title, it was 1954 - 41 years before Omar Vizquel and the Indians would make it to their first World Series appearance.

Despite the fact that throughout the next decade the Indians would never fulfill their dreams of winning the big game, this team and its stars would endear themselves to the city.

The fans responded by selling out an all-time record 455 straight games, and buying up millions of dollars in memorabilia with their favorite Indians players' name on it.

On a team full of sluggers that would become Hall of Fame worthy, it is hard to believe that the smallest player on the team would come out of the group with the most appreciation of the fan base. He is also the one player from those teams that will likely have his number retired by the organization.

As these Indians teams began to split apart, guys like Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, and Jim Thome all would leave town for the big money that free agency afforded them. They left town, breaking many Clevelanders' hearts.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland faithful continued to latch on to “Little-O.” He was a representation of the city. He was the little guy fighting to be recognized for his immense talents, just as the city was fighting to revitalize itself and be rid of the “Mistake by the Lake” moniker.

Even though Vizquel was in the midst of winning his 11 Gold Gloves, second only to the great Ozzie Smith, he had to fight to be considered one of the leagues best shortstops. He played in a new era of baseball, where 6’5'' shortstops that could hit for power were coming into the league. He was the old guard, a shortstop known for his glove and not his bat.

Because of this, he only appeared in three All-Star games, as the fans around the league voted for the new “sexy” stars like Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Nomar Garciaparra.

He would continue to be underappreciated, but that didn’t matter to the fans in Cleveland who continued to wear his jerseys and support him as their own.

Defensively, we all know of Vizquel’s tremendous talent.

He has an uncanny ability to position himself in the right place at the right time, and to always get the runner by half a step. He utilizes great footwork and a pair of soft hands as his tools.

It is said that he had learned to play this way because he had no glove to use when growing up in Venezuela. He had to learn to be able to field the ball without the glove to make the play. Thus, that is why he has also become known as the best player at the bare handed grab and throw to get runners.

Vizquel currently holds the highest career fielding percentage by a shortstop with more than 1,000 games played with a .984 mark. He also holds three of the top seven single season fielding percentages by a shortstop and as said before, has won 11 Gold Gloves. He is the first player in history to win multiple Gold Gloves in both the American and National Leagues.

Offensively, Vizquel is not as recognized, but that does not mean that he was not a great hitter.

He was a great two-hole hitter behind another Indians great, Kenny Lofton. The two of them at the top of the lineup put all sorts of pressure on pitchers as the big bats coming to the plate.

Kenny would get on first base and Omar was able to work the pitcher to allow Kenny to steal, or with his great bunting ability, he would try one of his great drag bunts to attempt for a bunt single while advancing the runner.

Vizquel also had a knack for clutch hits. I have etched into my mind his ability to line a ball down into either corner for a double or triple while clearing the bases for a big hit.

The biggest came during the 2001 season, when the Indians completed the biggest come-from-behind win in Major League history. After the Indians trailed 14-2 in the seventh inning against the Mariners, Vizquel had the tying hit with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. It was a bases clearing triple into the right field corner. The Indians would go on to win the game in the eleventh inning, 15-14.

Overall, Vizquel has a respectable .274 career batting average, which he amassed over 2,600 career hits, which ranks him eighth all-time for switch hitters, with over 400 doubles. He also had 382 stolen bases.

All together, the debate roars on whether he will be Hall of Fame worthy or not, but this is of no concern to Vizquel, who continues to focus on his playing career and helping the Giants win.

At 41 years old, Vizquel is clearly slowing down - he was hitting .171 entering Tuesday night - and he had knee surgery in spring training. But he says he still feels young inside and wants to continue playing into next season.

That should not surprise us. Vizquel is a battler. He has been battling for 20 years, why stop now?

So when he was greeted by 29,000 of his closest friends on Tuesday night, that is why he received a full minute standing ovation as he was announced to the crowd. He is one of them. Someone who will always try for more and fight for what he wants.

And what he wants is to continue playing the game he loves. That’s the way it should always be.