Bleacher Report - Articles by 4-6-3

10 Keys to The 2008 World Series

4-6-3 — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 19:56:17 -0400

The 2008 World Series features the hungry and experienced Philadelphia Phillies against the young and talented Tampa Bay Rays. These two teams are very evenly matched and I expect a hard-fought series that goes down to the wire. That being said, seven of the past 10 World Series have been decided in five or fewer games.

I’ve decided to list 5 keys to victory for each team to win the World Series, followed by my final thoughts and World Series prediction.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

1. The Starting Rotation
Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, and Andy Sonnanstine will comprise the Rays starting rotation in the World Series. Combined, the foursome went 50-34 in the regular season with an impressive 3.79 ERA. Thus far in the postseason, the foursome has combined to go 6-3 with a 3.62 ERA (27 earned runs in 67 innings pitched). Compare that to the Phillies projected starters (Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton) who’ve posted an impressive 6-2 record with a slightly higher 3.93 ERA.

Here’s the kicker: If you take Hamels out, Myers, Moyer, and Blanton have gone 3-2 with a 6.03 ERA in six starts.

2. Speed
The Phillies only stole six less bases than the Rays in the regular season (142 to 136), and they did so at a much more efficient rate (84% to 73%). The Rays 142 SB total was tops in all of MLB.

Fast-forward to the postseason and we have a completely different story. The Rays have stolen 17 bases and have been caught only twice, an 89% success rate. In comparison, the Phillies have only stolen seven bags in 10 tries, a 70% success rate.

The Rays have speed up and down the lineup, while the Phillies main base stealing threats come in the form of only two players: Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino (and maybe deceptively fast Jayson Werth, who swiped 20 bags this season).

3. Opposition
All year long the Rays have played in the much tougher and stronger American League. They’ve gone up against the best teams in the Major Leagues and come away with winning records (10-8 against Boston, 6-4 against the White Sox, 6-3 against Anaheim). In addition, the Rays were an impressive 12-6 in interleague play this year. They’ve also disposed of two recent World Series winners in the White Sox and Red Sox this postseason.

In comparison, the Phillies played in the weaker National League, and in a division where their main competition was the Mets. In addition, Philadelphia posted a dismal 4-11 interleague record this year.

4. Home Field Advantage
The Rays owned Major League Baseball’s best home record with a 57-24 mark, and are 4-2 at home in the postseason.

Say what you want about the bandwagon Tampa Bay Rays fans, they’re loud and boisterous when it counts. Those cowbells can really leave a ringing sensation in your head if you’re not used to it.

Tropicana Field is a domed stadium with artificial turf, something the Phillies might take a bit of time adjusting to. And in the World Series you don’t have much time to make adjustments.

5. Momentum
Momentum can often be the most important and overlooked factor in winning a playoff series. The Rays are fresh off a seven-game thrill ride in which they defeated the defending World Champions. They’ve also only had two full days rest, compared to a week of rest for the Phillies. For red-hot Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, Carlos Pena, and Carl Crawford, that’s a good thing. Philly slugger Ryan Howard was quoted as saying, “A week of rest feels more like a month of rest at this stage…it’s something we’re not used to.”

Side note: The Rays are 25 games above .500 this season when Longoria has recorded at least one RBI (he’s had 11 RBI in 11 games this postseason).

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

1. Bullpen
The Phillies are 79-0 this season when leading after the ninth inning. By now you also know that closer Brad Lidge has yet to blow a save all year long.

Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, Chad Durbin, and Scott Eyre have been impressive all season long, and have looked great this postseason. Madson has been the go-to guy in the eighth inning, and has pitched very effectively in that role.

Lefties Romero and Eyre will be called upon to face Pena and Crawford in tight situations and lefties are batting a combined 1-for-10 against those two in the postseason.

2. Knocking Around Starting Pitching
The Phillies have had tremendous success this postseason against opposing teams’ starting pitchers. With the exception of Hiroki Kuroda, no starter has lasted longer than six innings against the Phils, and they’ve faced some big names (C.C. Sabathia, Derek Lowe, and Chad Billingsley). If the Phils can make this a bullpen series, they have a serious advantage.

3. Cole Hamels
He is without question the strongest starting pitcher in this series, coming in with a perfect 3-0 record and a sterling 1.23 ERA. He’s shown he can pitch in pressure situations, and to both righties and lefties. Righties are hitting only .148 against Hamels this postseason, while lefties are hitting at a .238 clip.

In four of the past five World Series, the team that has won Game One of the series went on to win the whole thing. Advantage Hamels. Advantage Phillies.

4. Winning Without Howard
Some of you might be wondering what I’m getting at here. Well, simply, the Phillies have won in the postseason without their biggest bat producing. Ryan Howard won’t stay cold forever, and he is notoriously one of the streakiest hitters in all of baseball. Let’s not forget what he did in September, folks. If Howard gets a hold of one earlier in the series, the Phillies could produce some monster numbers.

5. Bench
The Phillies come into this series with better role players off the bench. If Pedro Feliz starts at third, you have Greg Dobbs possibly DHing or coming off the bench, and he’s hitting at a .545 clip this postseason. They also have battle tested Matt Stairs (we’ve all seen how quickly he can change a game), and Geoff Jenkins. In addition, the Phillies can bring Eric Bruntlett and So Taguchi off the bench, two players with speed and good gloves.

Final Thoughts: I’ve been leaning towards the Rays, and after writing this column I believe even stronger that they will win the World Series. I easily thought up and pounded out 5 advantages the Rays had in this series, but I struggled with the final two key advantages for the Phillies. That only cemented my prior thoughts.

The biggest disparity in this series lies with the bullpens. Philadelphia’s pen is undoubtedly stronger and more confident, but I don’t think they’ll play as crucial a role as some may think. I see the Rays getting to the Phils bullpen early in the series (not Game One, but definitely Game Two) and wearing out some of their arms. I don’t trust Myers, Moyer, and Blanton, like I don’t trust Mike Tyson babysitting my nephew. Those three worry me greatly, and I think the Rays potent bats will light them up. Cole Hamels might win Game One, but I see the Rays taking the next three, and then one of the next two games.

The Rays are functioning on all cylinders and don’t seem to have a blatant weakness. With the emergence of David Price out of the bullpen, I’m not worried about that aspect for the Rays. Home field advantage and momentum are both on the Rays side, and I love the way Joe Maddon has managed his ballclub down the stretch. Besides, history is on their side: In the last 10 World Series, the team with home field advantage has won seven times.

Prediction: Rays in six.

World Series Preview: 10 Pitching Questions Answered

4-6-3 — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 17:03:43 -0400

I've enlisted two Community Leaders, Devon Rodgers of the Tampa Bay Rays and Christian Karcole of the Philadelphia Phillies, to answer pertinent pitching questions facing their respective teams. The following is a 10 question Q&A breaking down the Rays and Phillies, pitching-wise.

Devon Rogers – Rays Co-Community Leader

RD: James Shields lost both of his starts in the ALCS but pitched well, posting a 3.46 ERA with nine strikeouts against five walks. What are some advantages of pitching Scott Kazmir in Game One over Shields?

DR: James Shields isn’t available for Game One, and I think that’s why they went with Kazmir. From a matchups standpoint, Hamels vs. Kazmir should be close, and we get the edge in Game Two with “Big Game James” against Brett Myers. Maddon won't pitch Shields in Game One on three days' rest because it is too risky when you have a guy like Kazmir ready to go on full rest.

RD: Through the ALDS and ALCS, the Rays have held the White Sox and Red Sox down with a combined team ERA of 3.52. Can their arms hold up against a potent and dangerous Phillies lineup?

DR: Almost all of the pitchers are experiencing playing more than 162 games for the first time. The young arms have held up until this point, so I think they should all be fine. Other than Troy Percival, all our pitchers were healthy down the stretch.

Every guy on the staff has been able to hold games in clutch situations and keep it close. With Maddon's philosophies, this will be just another series and our pitchers will show more of the same.

RD: The American public has now seen what David Price is all about, with his brilliant effort late in Game Seven of the ALCS. What kind of role does this phenom play in the World Series?

DR: DAVID PRICE WILL BE THE CLOSER IN THE WORLD SERIES. There, I said it. Price has nerves of steel and will not fold under pressure. Most rookies cannot perform under that much stress, but we have two that play like 10-year vets. Nothing can rattle Price.

If you can keep your calm when you are one out away from the World Series with the tying run at the plate, you can handle any situation. A huge amount of the recognition should go to a young catcher, Dioner Navarro. He was able to keep Price settled enough to record the final out. That shows leadership.

RD: Matt Garza was superb in the ALCS, going 2-0 with a minuscule 1.38 ERA, while striking out 14 and walking only six. Does the Fresno State alum pick up where he left off in his Game Three start in the World Series?

DR: Matt Garza has finally gotten his emotions under control. When he can keep control and Navarro can keep him calm, there is no stopping him. He could very well pick up the World Series MVP as well; he’s got great stuff, an absolute fireball for a fastball, and great breaking pitches to get people out.

Garza also doesn't let his mistakes get to him. After giving up the homer to Dustin Pedroia in Game Seven, he was able to keep his calm and pitch effectively. He is one of the toughest pitchers in baseball to hit, and he is our No. 3 starter.

RD: Grant Balfour (19.29 ERA) and Dan Wheeler (5.40 ERA), two of the most relied upon arms out of the Rays bullpen struggled mightily in the ALCS. Does Maddon still have confidence to use these guys in tight situations?

DR: Maddon will definitely have the confidence in Wheeler. I think it was just a slip up. Wheeler pitched amazingly well in Game Two, and for that alone he needs to be used. Balfour is another story. Knowing what Maddon tries to do, he will still try to use him in big situations, but that will be a mistake.

Over a long series, he becomes too hittable, and he doesn’t have great breaking stuff. Major-league hitters are used to high heat and will hit it after a while. He will be good in Games One, and Two, but not long after that.

Christian Karcole – Phillies Co-Community Leader

RD: Hamels is 3-0 in the postseason, with an immortal 1.23 ERA. He’s allowed only three earned runs in 22 innings pitched while averaging exactly one strikeout per inning. Does the young southpaw add to his sterling postseason resume with a strong W.S., or does he fall back to Earth?

CK: In my opinion, he's already on Earth. I honestly think he is this good, and right now, he has so much confidence, which is huge in the postseason. Nothing fazes him, and he goes after everything. Also, his dominance in the postseason is not something new.

This season was his best of his career. His win total would have been higher if he had had better run support, but other than that, his ERA, SO, WHIP, etc. were great. So I would have to say that he will continue his dominance in the World Series.

RD: After posting a 3.88 team ERA in the regular season (sixth in MLB), the Phils have posted a 3.19 team ERA in the postseason. It seems as though this group just continues to get better and better. Can they lower this impressive mark against a hot Rays lineup?

CK: It's definitely going to be tough to keep this Rays lineup in check. Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Madson, Romero, Eyre, and Lidge are all pitching well, but there are some concerns.

Chad Durbin has been atrocious since the beginning of September, so that takes away a lot from the bullpen. Madson and Eyre are good set-up men, but Madson still concerns me at times, because he gives up the long ball a lot. I'm not too sure about Eyre, but if they can get it to Lidge, I think the lead is pretty safe.

Also, Moyer was wonderful during the season, yet something has happened in these playoffs. He better straighten it out, because we need him this time. So to answer the question, I don't think they can keep the Rays in check, but I don't think they'll be horrible.

RD: The Phillies' staff has surrendered five postseason home runs in nine games thus far, while the Rays have clobbered 22 home runs in 11 games this postseason. Citizens Bank Park is hitter friendly, so what gives in the World Series?

CK: Nothing gives. The Phillies have more power than the Rays, and they are hitting in the same ballpark. If the Rays get the home runs, I think the Phillies will, too. Each team has the same advantage of playing in CBP, so it won't be a huge deal. But, when it comes to our pitching, it gets a little fuzzy concerning the long ball.

Hamels and Myers both have a history of giving up homers, and Madson does as well. All three are pitching very well, so they may not give 'em up this time, but you never know with this hot Rays team.

RD: Jamie Moyer, the scheduled Game Three starter for the Phils, is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA this postseason. Will the oldest player in Major League Baseball regain his form when it counts most?

CK: I'm going to have to say that he won't regain his form, but he won't be terrible. I think he's figured out what he's been doing wrong, and I think he can rebound and pitch a decent game. He gave the Phillies so many quality starts this season, and he lead the team in wins. The Moyer we saw in the early 2000s is still there, and I hope he can come out again in the World Series.

RD: The Phillies' bullpen has helped carry them to this point in the season. Brad Lidge has been unbelievable along with Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, and Scott Eyre. Do the Rays stand a chance at scoring any runs against this group late in ballgames?

CK: I think the Rays definitely have a chance to hit this bullpen. As stated above, Madson has a little history with the homers, so that's a concern for me. Also, Romero doesn't pitch too much anymore, so he may not be a huge factor.

Scott Erye has been impressive, but I don't know what to exactly think of him yet. Finally, Lidge has been a bit shaky in a few of his recent saves, and this Rays lineup against him scares me. Do I think he'll finally blow a save? Too hard to say. But it's definitely a possibility.

There you have it, 10 answers to critical pitching questions facing these two teams heading into the World Series.

Thank you to Devon Rogers and Christian Karcole for your contributions.

Also, check out 10 answers to pertinent HITTING questions facing these two teams.

World Series Preview: 10 Hitting Questions Answered

4-6-3 — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 12:54:47 -0400

I’ve enlisted the brightest Bleacher Report minds on the Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays to impart their wisdom amongst our MLB community. The following is a 10 question Q&A breaking down the Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies hitting concerns.

Patrick Gallen – Phillies Co-Community Leader

RD: One of the biggest questions heading into the World Series is whether or not the Phillies will be able to play American League-style ball. Do you think they can? Who’s the DH going to be?

PG: Well, I think they pretty much already do. They are a home-run-hitting team more suitable for the A.L., especially with Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard, two guys who should be DHs. I would DH Greg Dobbs against righties and Burrell against lefties, bringing Eric Bruntlett off the bench to play left field and bat eighth or ninth.

RD: Ryan Howard could well be the key to the Phillies success in the World Series. He has yet to homer this postseason and is hitting only .258 with three RBI. Will the big man come through when it counts most?

PG: Phillies fans should hope so. A home run or two would be nice in this round, but give him the benefit of the doubt, pitchers aren’t giving him anything to hit. I have been his biggest critic, but if you had Pat Burrell behind him and realized that Ryan Howard was unable to hit a breaking ball, you would pitch around him, too.

Teams are doing this and hoping he strikes out. If he doesn’t, then Burrell comes up and he hasn’t been too much of a threat either.

RD: Jimmy Rollins, Pedro Feliz, and Jayson Werth all struggled in the NLCS, each hitting under .200. If these three don’t pick up their production are the Phillies toast?

PG: Well, I think certainly the burden rests on Jimmy Rollins to pick up the slack. He is clearly more important than both Feliz and Werth, as he is the leadoff hitter and the driver of the bus. He had a great Game Five against the Dodgers, so hopefully his success can move from that series to the World Series. Werth is streaky, so I expect him to pick it up a bit. Feliz is basically useless at the plate, but he still plays good defense.

RD: Shane Victorino has willed the Phillies to a couple postseason wins with both his bat and glove. The "Flyin’ Hawaiian" is hitting .281 with four runs, two home runs, and 11 RBI this postseason. Can the Phillies win the World Series without a couple huge games from this guy?

PG: I think they can. It seems they get someone new to step up every game, and Victorino just happens to be hot at the right time. He has been the offensive MVP thus far, so any setback would probably hurt them, knowing that the rest of the lineup hasn’t been producing as well as it could. His glove in center field is not an issue; it will always be there.

RD: Which Philly bat has the potential to be the X-factor in the World Series?

PG: Pat Burrell is definitely the guy to look out for. If he’s “Good Pat,” he won’t swing at the ugly outside breaking ball and will pound the fastball. They need “Good Pat,” because the Rays will pitch to Ryan Howard like everyone else has. That means it’s up to Howard to be patient and give Burrell a chance to succeed behind him.

He has the opportunity to show once and for all that he is not the guy Philadelphians see him as. And that, right now, is mediocre.

Scott Birchfield – Rays Co-Community Leader

RD: The Rays are hitting only .268 in the playoffs but have scored a remarkable 64 runs in 11 games. Can they keep up this sort of run production against the Phillies’ pitching staff in the World Series?

SB: It's hard to say. The key is getting Akinori Iwamura on base ahead of Upton, Pena, and Longoria. This will put pressure on whoever the pitcher is. The Rays find ways to put runs on the board, and they will manufacture runs if they have to. Bottom line, they need to score enough to take the pressure off of their starters.

RD: B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria have combined to hit 13 home runs with 26 RBI in their first whiff of postseason baseball. Do these two continue their torrid pace?

SB: Probably not...The Phillies might try to pitch around Upton and take their chances with Carlos Pena. Someone else needs to step up and help in the power department. Although he hit three home runs in the ALCS, I expect Pena to have a huge World Series.

RD: Carl Crawford has been amazing since rejoining the Rays this postseason. He’s hitting .302 (13-for-43), with six RBI, and six stolen bases. Besides the obvious, what has he meant to this Rays team?

SB: He is a major reason the Rays are in the World Series. He was itching to play for a long time, and he provides plenty of energy to go with the power bats of the Rays. He’s also the leader to the team. You could tell the Rays spirits perked up the second Crawford came back.

RD: How do you see Joe Maddon managing the Baldelli/Gross platoon in right field? What is one major advantage/disadvantage of having one guy in the lineup as opposed to the other?

SB: Baldelli is having a better stretch offensively, but both are capable defenders in the outfield. It will depend largely upon who’s pitching. The advantage to having Baldelli in the lineup is his athleticism.

Even though he’s had numerous injuries, he plays all out all the time. Baldelli overall is a better player than Gross, but Gross is an unselfish player that will do anything for the team.

RD: Which Ray’s bat has the potential to be the X-factor in the World Series?

SB: Carlos Pena...If the Phillies pitch around Upton too much, Pena should be able to take advantage.

There you have it, 10 answers to critical hitting questions facing these two teams heading into the World Series.

Thank you to Patrick Gallen and Scott Birchfield for your contributions.

Click here for answers to ten pertinent PITCHING questions

Red Sox-Rays: Beantown BEATDOWN

4-6-3 — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 17:27:45 -0400

To say that the Tampa Bay Rays are running on all cylinders right now might be the understatement of the year.

For the second consecutive night, the Rays pounded the Boston Red Sox, winning Game Four by a score of 13-4 to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the American League Championship Series.

Carl Crawford and Willy Aybar combined to go 9-for-10, with four runs scored, seven RBI, two doubles, a triple, a home run, and two stolen bases. Crawford tied an ALCS record for hits in a game with his 5-for-5 performance, coming within a home run of hitting for the cycle.

The Rays scored early and often, as Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria both homered in the top of the first inning, their second, and third long flies’ of the series, respectively.

Boston starter Tim Wakefield (0-1) was unable to recover, getting touched for five runs on six hits in only 2.2 innings of work. Wakefield added to the Red Sox’s starting pitching woes, joining unlikely candidates Josh Beckett and Jon Lester on the list.

Tampa Bay scored twice more in the third inning, and once in the fifth before blowing the game wide open with a five-run, sixth-inning outburst.

Rays starter Andy Sonnanstine (1-0) looked masterful, limiting the Red Sox to four runs on six hits in 7.1 innings of work. Sonnanstine surrendered a solo shot to Kevin Cash in the third inning but settled down beautifully after that.

With the exception of Akinori Iwamura and Fernando Perez, every Ray recorded at-least one hit, and with the exception of Dioner Navarro and Perez, every Ray scored at-least one run. Manager Joe Maddon was quoted after the game as saying, “This was the best game we’ve had offensively all year long.”

What a time to have that happen, huh?

Consider this: In the past two games, at Fenway I might add, the Rays have outscored the World Champion Boston Red Sox 22-to-five, and outhit them a whopping 27-to-14.

Both Rays starters recorded wins, while both Boston starters recorded losses.

In Games Four and Five, B.J. Upton, Pena, Longoria, and Crawford have combined to go 14-for-34 (.411), with 14 runs scored and 12 RBI. Compare that to a combined 7-for-30 (.233), with two runs scored, and three RBI from Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, and Jason Bay.

Boston has come back from this exact 3-1 deficit in the ALCS before (see 2007 playoffs against Cleveland), but needless to say, they’re in some serious trouble. I don’t think they’ve faced a team as hot as the Rays in any of their recent playoff runs.

During the ninth inning, with the Rays up 13-4, TBS broadcaster and long time manager Buck Martinez questioned, “Who are these guys?”

These are the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays, and they are here to stay.

10 Questions You Need Answered Heading into the ALCS

4-6-3 — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 07:40:06 -0400

To get a better gauge on the American League Championship Series between the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays, I decided to ask two hardcore, dedicated members of Bleacher Report what their thoughts were heading into the series. The following is a Q&A of 10 questions that should hopefully help you get a better idea of what to expect.

Red Sox Fan – RedSox Maniac

1- This series could easily hinge on Josh Beckett. What do you expect from
this big-time performer after his struggles in Game Three of the ALDS?

Maniac: There was a lot to take away from Beckett’s start; I think he still looked a little injury plagued. However, you can also look at other times he’s bounced back from long rest and injuries only to come up huge in big games.

I cannot say that Game Three of the ALDS foreshadows what he will do for the rest of the postseason. His fastball held up at around 91-93, he hit 95 only a couple of times, his location was spotty, and his lack of control led to four walks and two homers. I’m concerned about how he will come back after a very flat game.

He hasn’t pitched many innings this season and has confirmed no pain from the oblique injury.

Against the Rays this year, he is 2-1 with a 2.06 ERA and a .209 OBA. In his only loss against the Rays, he racked up 13 Ks and gave up only one earned run in seven innings. The Rays’ lineup has become more formidable as the season has progressed, and Beckett will have to muster up some quality innings.

I expect for him to come on stronger, but I do see bigger battles with a matured Rays lineup that has more confidence than earlier in the season.

2- Jason Bay has been huge for the Red Sox and really showed his value in
the ALDS. Are Red Sox fans over the Manny trade yet?

Maniac: I will never get over the Manny trade, but I thoroughly enjoyed being saved in this series by Jason Bay. His bat is quick—fastballs do not get by him—and he has picked up his team at the right time in nearly every game. With Pedroia’s struggles, Ortiz's lackluster series, and Lowell’s injury, I can happily call Jason Bay my savior.

As long as he stays off the breaking pitches and stays patient through his at-bats, look for him to keep producing at a Manny-esque pace. If the Rays are successful in keeping Drew and Youkilis off the basepaths, look for them to try Bay’s patience by pitching around him.

3- Big Papi, Jason Varitek, Youkilis, and Pedroia combined to go a putrid
12-for-66 (.181). This included a 1-for-17 performance from the probable A.L.
MVP Pedroia. Will these guys heat up in the ALCS?

Maniac: One thing that we all have to learn in the playoffs is that good pitching defeats good hitting. Lackey, Shields, Santana, and Saunders pitched amazing against the entire team, holding the Red Sox to around four runs per game (not to mention the two scored on the Kendrick/Hunter popup blunder).

The ALCS will present another starting rotation that has given the Red Sox
fits all year. Although Pedroia has hit well against the Rays, Ortiz and Youkilis have had
their struggles against Rays pitching. Due to the resurgence of Ellsbury and Kotsay, there will be more advantages to put pressure on these young pitchers and get some runs on the board.

Look for the ALDS performance from these four to be a distant memory.

Varitek! Boras is watching! Let’s get it together.

4- Mike Lowell did next to nothing in the ALDS and just didn’t look like his normal self. How does manager Terry Francona set his lineup in Game One of this series, and what role, if any, does Lowell play throughout?

Maniac: Mike Lowell has a hip injury that seems very severe. He won’t be playing in the ALCS, and it will be unlikely he will be healthy enough to play for the rest of the season.

5- Beckett, Lester, and Dice-K combined to go 6-1 against the Rays this
year. What can we expect from these guys in this series?

Maniac: Jon Lester amazes me every game. Not only does he keep dominating opposing hitters, but it seems as though his stuff is improving every time he takes the mound. In his most recent outing, his fastball was clocking in anywhere from 92-97 mph (which is rare for him to reach 97, let alone all game), and he tortured the Angels with his pin-point command.

His at-bat against Teixeira in the seventh inning only cemented his position as one of the top pitchers in baseball. Period.

In his last eight starts, he has given up one or no runs seven times! Expect him to lead this team all series, and expect him to dominate every game he pitches. Longoria, Crawford, Upton, and Pena don’t hit lefties real well, so their inability can be a huge plus for Lester’s game.

Their bats are potent, so he still can be hit hard if he makes enough mistakes. As for Beckett and Dice-K, if they can garner six good innings in their starts, the Red Sox should be in good shape to win this series.

The Red Sox hitting has been more erratic against good pitching and was pretty much saved in the ALDS by Jason Bay’s performances. The Rays, on the other hand, seem to be able to hit regardless of the pitcher or situation involved.

This type of clutch mentality, which can come from Jason Bartlett as well as Evan Longoria, makes it tough for Red Sox pitching to clamp down, and puts more pressure on our offense to score runs early. I have a prediction, but I’ll leave it until another day.

Tampa Bay Rays Community Leader – Devon Rogers

1- Upton and Longoria looked incredible in the ALDS, to what do you attribute these youngsters’ stellar performances in their first postseason experience?

DR: I think the veterans surrounding those two have been a huge factor in their success. In B.J.’s case, he has experience with major-league pitching and he has done well with it, producing a .300 average and 25 homers last year.

Part of his problem in the regular season was that he was playing with a torn labrum, which contributed to his lack of power. It looks like B.J. has found a way to hit well now, just in time.

Evan Longoria is really an enigma. He is only a rookie, but he looks like he has been in the league for 10 years. I expect them both to keep producing as the postseason rolls on thanks to the support from guys like Cliff Floyd, Eric Hinske, and Joe Maddon, who have postseason experience. These guys will be able to help the young guys keep their emotions in check.

2- Manager Joe Maddon has experienced an ALCS and World Series with the Angels as a bench coach, but never as the manager. Going head-to-head against a seasoned Terry Francona, how does Maddon hold up?

DR: I think Maddon will hold up fine. Bench coaches have some of the same jobs as managers, just not on the same scale. The playoff experience with the Angels will help him out a lot when we get deeper into the postseason.

Maddon has a great group of coaches and players to help him through. He just needs to stick to his philosophies and remember all the quotes he’s put up in the clubhouse.

3- The Rays owned baseball’s best home record (57-24) this year. What factors contributed to this sterling mark, and what’s to be expected of fans at The Trop experiencing their first ALCS ever?

DR: The main factor in their home record has been the crowd. Being apart of the crowds at The Trop is amazing. In around the 30 games I have been to this year, I have yet to see a dull crowd. The noise from the cowbells has no place to go; it’s truly earsplitting.

I expect the crowds to be as pumped and loud as ever for the Rays during the ALCS. The Rays crowds can truly be called the 10th man. It makes opposing players lose focus.

4- In his last save opportunity against the Rays, Jonathan Papelbon surrendered two runs on three hits in an inning of work. Can the Rays really feel confident they can score off this guy in the ninth again?

DR: The Rays can definitely feel confident facing Papelbon now. Most of the team has experience against Pabelbon and know what he throws. The fact that that the Rays got to him last time should be a huge confidence boost for the batters. We just need to keep poking at him until he breaks like his last outing against us.

5- The Rays held a 10-8 record against the Red Sox this year in the regular season. Their inexperience didn’t seem to show, but do you think it might finally catch up to them on the biggest stage yet?

DR: Their experience hasn’t been a factor in the 166 games they’ve played so far, so it shouldn’t be a problem here. The Rays have played their share of big games this year, and it hasn’t seemed to phase them.

With the help of "Big Game" James Shields and "Mr. Clutch" Andy Sonnanstine, we should be able to prevail. We have been playing under scrutiny that we don’t draw enough fans, we will fade at the end, and we can’t make it in the playoffs. We’ve proved ourselves to some, but now we need to prove all the media (mostly the Red Sox and Yankee-biased ESPN) wrong.

There you have it, thoughts and opinions from two qualified Red Sox and Rays sources. With a Game One matchup scheduled for Friday, Oct. 10 in Tampa Bay, look for a heated, highly-contested series.

A special thank you to Devon Rogers and Red Sox Maniac for their contributions on this project.

Also, check out a 10 Question Q/A on the NLCS here.

10 Questions You Need Answered Heading into the NLCS

4-6-3 — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 10:16:46 -0400

To get a better gauge on the National League Championship Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies, I decided to ask two hardcore, dedicated members of Bleacher Report what their thoughts were headed into the NLCS. The following is a Q&A of 10 questions that should hopefully help you get a better idea of what to expect.

Dodgers Community Leader Molly Gray:

1. The Dodgers managed to hit only .250 as a team in the three-game sweep of the Cubs but scored 20 runs in the process. Do you expect this trend of clutch, run-scoring, extra-base hits to continue?

MG: If I were to look at the entire season, I’d have to say no. However, in comparing the OBPs over the last 30 days to the OBPs over the regular season, the numbers have gone way up.

In the regular season, the Dodgers had only two players with an OBP of over .400 (Manny Ramirez (.489) and Rafael Furcal (.439) there was a third, Terry Tiffee, but he had only four at-bats, so we’ll leave him out of this).

We’ve seen that change towards the end of the season with eight of the Dodgers players having OBPs of over .400. Andre Ethier improved from .375 to .500, Jeff Kent improved from .327 to .500, and rookie Blake DeWitt improved from .344 to .425, to name a few.

This might seem elementary, but the Dodgers have realized that to get runs you have to get men on base, which they’ve been able to accomplish down the stretch and into these playoffs.

2. Russell Martin, Manny Ramirez, and James Loney combined to go 12-for-37 (.324), with nine runs, four homers, and 14 RBI in the NLDS. Can this trio maintain their scorching postseason run?

MG: We all know that Manny Ramirez is a man among boys in the N.L. and will of course maintain his postseason run. However, both Martin and Loney are very inexperienced when it comes to the playoffs. Martin and Loney played in the '06 playoffs, but both lack significant experience in the postseason.

Both of these players have been streaky this season. If you look at stats from the last 30 days, Loney and Martin are batting .200 and .267, respectively, which is not characteristic of the type of numbers they put up against the Cubs.

If they can keep it up, I think it will be one of the deciding factors in a victorious Los Angeles team coming out of the NLCS; however, I will be less surprised if we see those type of numbers out of more experienced and consistent players such as Casey Blake.

3. Joe Torre surprisingly placed Andre Ethier in the cleanup spot, only to be rewarded with a 1-for-10 effort in the NLDS from the young right fielder. Does Torre keep Ethier in the four-hole or do we see somebody else in this spot in the lineup to start the NLCS?

MG: I think Torre needs to change it up. Ethier is batting .100 in the postseason and even though his OBP is .357, I’m not entirely sure he feels comfortable in the four-hole, which could be a mental issue causing his poor batting average.

With Furcal back in the mix, we’ve got some mobility in the lineup, and I’d like to see players like Casey Blake or Blake DeWitt taking that spot; they both hit consistently and can handle the pressure.

4. Lowe, Billingsley, and Kuroda combined to go 3-0 with a 17-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio against the Cubbies, each earning quality starts. What are some realistic numbers to expect from this trio facing a hot and potent Phillies lineup?

MG: In 2008, the Phillies amassed a .304 batting average and a .448 OBP against Billingsley for seven hits and three runs. Derek Lowe was able to control Philadelphia a little more in his game giving up a .208 BAA, an OBP of .240 and two runs on five hits.

Statistically, Kuroda has the best numbers against the Phillies, of the three, with a batting average against of .095, an OBP of .152, while surrendering only two runs on four hits.

However, Kuroda scares me because he has been so touch-and-go all season, and I’m never sure which Kuroda is going to step out onto the mound. Lowe will succeed due to his experience and knowledge of the game, and Billingsley has the drive and determination that only a first-year starter can have that will help him to thrive in this series.

5. The Dodgers and Phillies each earned home sweeps in respective four-game series against each other during the regular season. With the Phillies owning home-field advantage, does anything give in the NLCS?

MG: I’m not sure that this will be a factor in the series. The Dodgers were able to beat the Cubs in two games at Wrigley Field, and I think they can do the same at Citizens Bank Park.

Then again, Dodger Stadium is not known to be a tough atmosphere for visiting teams, so Philadelphia should have just as fair an advantage in Los Angeles. I think this one will be decided by the plays on the field, rather than where they play.

Phillies Community Leader Christian Karcole

1. The Phillies went 1-1 against the Brewers in the NLDS when Jayson Werth batted second, and 2-0 when Shane Victorino hit in the two-hole. There are some obvious advantages to having each of those guys hit second. How does manager Charlie Manuel play it throughout the series?

CK: I would hope to see Manuel put Victorino in the two-hole. My two main reasons for this are: 1) Victorino can always get on base, and when you have Utley, Howard, and Burrell behind you, good things will happen. 2) The Dodgers’ pitchers do not give up the long ball all that much, so that takes away from a big part of Werth’s game.

2. While Rollins, Victorino, and Burrell carried the Phillies past the Brewers, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley both struggled mightily. The two combined to go 4-for-26 (.153), with only three RBI. Can they bounce back from a poor NLDS against a strong Dodger staff?

CK: I wouldn’t even put Burrell in a good category for the series. He didn’t record a hit in his first three games. But to answer your question, I do think they will be able to bounce back. Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley, the Dodgers’ two key pitchers, are both right-handers, and that spells well for Howard and Utley. That may not mean great things for Burrell, but I hope his Game Four is a preview of things to come.

3. Every Phillies regular scored at least one run in the NLDS and recorded at least one extra-base hit with the exception of Carlos Ruiz. Do you expect this production to continue?

CK: Don’t get me started on Carlos Ruiz. I love his defensive game—he works great with pitchers and has a rocket arm, but when it comes to offense, I just can’t watch. He has no hitting ability at the major-league level whatsoever. I do expect his struggles to continue, but only because his struggles have never ended.

4. Blanton pitched a superb Game Four, while the Dodgers didn’t even have to play a Game Four. What added advantages do the Phillies have knowing that they have a bona fide No. 4 starter in Blanton?

CK: I think it does a lot for the Phillies. We all knew that Hamels and Myers were pitching well, and that Jamie Moyer is still effective, but we wondered what would happen when we had to throw Blanton out there. Well we found out he can pull through when he needs to.

The only thing I don’t like about this is that the offense finally showed up when the Brewers went to their No. 4, Jeff Suppan. Now that we have seen what Blanton is capable of, will the Phillies get too confident like they did with Myers, Hamels, and Moyer? I hope not.

CK: I’m always a big believer in home-field advantage, so I’d say no, nothing gives. The Phillies will have that advantage in the first two games of the series, and the Dodgers will have it for the next three before giving it back to the Phillies for the final two games.

The atmosphere in both parks have been electric as can be, so home field could play an extremely crucial role.

There you have it, thoughts and opinions from two qualified Dodgers and Phillies sources. With a Game One matchup scheduled for Thursday, Oct. 9 in Philadelphia, look for an amazing, fun-packed series with lots of fireworks.

A special thanks to Molly Gray and Christian Karcole for their support in this project.

Also, stay tuned for my National League and American League Series Previews.

The Complete 2008 Divisional Series Playoff Preview

4-6-3 — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 07:36:12 -0400

I LIVE FOR THIS.

There, I said it. Playoff baseball represents all that is holy on this earth. It is by far the best time of year, and if it were up to me, which it sadly isn’t, playoff baseball would replace Christmas as the most celebrated holiday.

We’ve all heard the stories of fathers missing their children’s birth for a prime-time sporting event, and ladies and gentlemen, that guy is me. Not literally, I’m only 23, but should the opportunity ever present itself, you can be sure I wouldn’t hesitate to miss that hospital visit for a seat behind home plate.

That’s how much I love playoff baseball. Even with my team far removed from the playoffs, I’m officially juiced for the 2008 Divisional Series to start.

Playoff baseball is so beautiful because every game holds such extreme importance. Drop Game One of a five-game Divisional Series, and there’s a great chance you’re done. Can’t maintain home-field advantage in the Championship Series? Then there’s a good chance you can kiss your World Series dreams goodbye.

Playoff baseball brings out the best in both players and managers. Sure, I love watching the best players in the world play on the biggest stage, but something inside me almost enjoys watching managers attempt to outwit their counterparts even more.

From setting their playoff rosters, to crucial in-game decisions, managers are truly put to the test come playoff time.

To think that 162 games of blood, sweat, and tears shed by your beloved team can evaporate with one hanging breaking ball is what makes playoff baseball so unbelievably excruciating, exciting, and enjoyable.

So, without further ado, I present to you my American and National League Divisional Series previews and predictions:

(All times Eastern Standard Time)

Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

10/2 - Chicago Sox at Tampa Bay - 2:30 PM
10/3 - Chicago Sox at Tampa Bay - 6:00 PM
10/5 - Tampa Bay at Chicago Sox – TBD
10/6 - Tampa Bay at Chicago Sox - TBD
10/8 - Chicago Sox at Tampa Bay - TBD

This is one of the more intriguing series, in my mind. We have the feel good Rays against the veteran-laden White Sox. In the season series, Tampa Bay held a 6-4 advantage over Chicago.

The Rays turned in one of greatest single-season turnarounds in baseball history, hell, sports history. They transformed a dismal 66-96 record in 2007 into a sparkling, A.L. East winning 97-65 record in 2008.

The Rays used a combination of young starting pitching, dependable bullpen arms, speed on the basepaths, clutch contributions from rookies, and brilliant managing to execute the best story of the 2008 regular season. If anyone predicted this astonishing 180 for the Rays this year, come down to Bleacher Report, and I’ll kiss the ground where you stand.

NOBODY SAW THIS COMING.

The Rays dethroned the Red Sox and the Evil Empire to win the A.L. East with style and flair. Their starting rotation of Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Andy Sonnanstine, Matt Garza, and Edwin Jackson, all under the age of 28, went a combined 64-45. These youngsters led the Rays to the A.L.’s second best ERA, 3.82.

A solid year from B.J. Upton, timely contributions from Carlos Pena, and an amazing Rookie of the Year campaign from Evan Longoria supplied the Rays with ample run support. Not to mention, the Rays are getting their sparkplug back in the form of Carl Crawford just at the right time.

A solid bullpen anchored by David Price, Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, Chad Bradford, and maybe Troy Percival give the Rays confidence in late-game situations.

The White Sox come into this series with a full head of steam, having won two must-win games to reach the ALDS. We’ve seen in recent years how valuable it can be for a team to come into the playoffs having won momentous games. That’s the main reason we can’t count out the White Sox in this series.

The South Siders combine a powerful lineup with a solid corps of starting pitchers. With Jim Thome, Ken Griffey Jr., Jermaine Dye, Nick Swisher, A.J. Pierzynski, Paul Konerko, and Orlando Cabrera, the White Sox aren’t lacking in experience.

On the season, the Sox outscored (+36 runs) and outslugged the Rays (+64 home runs), while hitting only three points higher (.263 to .260). The White Sox have a formidable foursome themselves in Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez, Gavin Floyd, and John Danks.

Their bullpen is also very solid, anchored by Bobby Jenks and Octavio Dotel.

I’m not sure you can make the argument that the Sox are hungrier than the Rays because they’ve got wily veterans that could very well be seeing their last shot at a World Series, but you can certainly say they’ve got experience on their side.

Manager Ozzie Guillen has been there before, and won, while Rays’ manager Joe Maddon will experience his first taste of postseason baseball as the main man in charge.

Let’s give credit where credit is due: Maddon has managed this team terrifically all year, and there’s no reason to think that that would change now. I’d love to see Griffey advance and win, because everyone can agree he deserves it, but I don’t think it’s the White Sox's year.

Tampa Bay will ride the coattails of their young stud starters, swipe a few bags, and continue to use the clutch, timely hitting that helped get them here. Price could play a huge roll in this series, coming into late-inning situations to face lefties Thome, Griffey, Swisher, and Pierzynski.

Let's not forget Tampa Bay owns the American League’s best home record, 57-24. The Rays take the first two at home, and eventually win on the road.

Prediction: Rays in four

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

10/1 - Boston at LA Angels - 10:00 PM
10/3 - Boston at LA Angels - 9:30 PM
10/5 - LA Angels at Boston - TBD
10/6 - LA Angels at Boston - TBD
10/8 - Boston at LA Angels – TBD

The two powerhouse American League rivals find themselves squaring off against each other for the third time in five years (2004, 2007). Since 1986, the Red Sox have won nine-straight playoff games against the Angels (stat courtesy of Angels Community Leader, Scott Fowler).

They’ve shared tremendous recent success against the Angels, but the Sox come into this series limping, and without a familiar face. This year, the Angels owned the Red Sox, winning eight of nine games.

The story of the series boils down to the Red Sox's bats against the Angels' arms. Essentially, can Boston outslug the Halos? Can their bats heat up against an Angels staff that has owned them this season?

Boston scored 80 more runs, recorded 101 more extra-base hits, hit 12 points higher, and owned an .805 OPS, compared to the Angels’ .743. These numbers must be taken with a grain of salt, however, because one Manny Ramirez is no longer with Sox Nation.

The Sox can still flat out rake, but maybe not against the Angels.

Interestingly enough, the Sox hit only .252 against the Angels this year, were outscored by 28 runs, stole six fewer bases, and hit four fewer home runs, and that was WITH Ramirez for half the season. The Red Sox probable starters (Jon Lester, Dice-K, and Josh Beckett) were unable to record a win against the Angels this year, going a combined 0-3 in four starts.

Let it be noted that those numbers were with a healthy Beckett, not a banged up version of the right-handed flamethrower. Beckett surrendered 11 earned runs in only 13.1 innings pitched against the Halos this year. Combined, the three starters were lit up for an 8.10 ERA.

The Angels are well rested and should feel confident heading into the series, given the shared success they’ve enjoyed against the Sox this year. The Halos hit .305 against Red Sox pitching and scored 61 runs in nine contests, an average of 6.78 runs scored per game.

They stole 10 bases and were caught only twice. As a team, the Angels hit 17 points higher at home than on the road (.277/.260), an added advantage of playing three of five at The Big A. With the additions of Torii Hunter and Mark Teixeira, the Angels feature a more potent lineup than what the Red Sox are used to seeing from their West Coast rivals.

With the Angels owning home-field advantage throughout, look for the banged up Red Sox (See: Lowell, Drew, Beckett) to feel the lingering effects of having to travel across the country at least two times, and possibly three, should they force a Game Five.

With Beckett less than 100 percent, the Red Sox's days could be numbered. It doesn’t seem to matter where the Angels play, owning identical 50-31 records both at home and on the road.

Will history hold true, allowing Boston to cruise past the Angels, or will 2008 season trends linger into the postseason? I’m leaning towards the latter. Teixeira, John Lackey, and Francisco Rodriguez reverse the curse and lead the Halos past the Sox.

Prediction: Angels in three

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

10/1 - Milwaukee at Philadelphia - 3:00 PM
10/2 - Milwaukee at Philadelphia - 6:00 PM
10/4 - Philadelphia at Milwaukee - 6:30 PM
10/5 - Philadelphia at Milwaukee – TBD
10/7 - Milwaukee at Philadelphia – TBD

The Brewers find themselves in unfamiliar territory, having reached the playoffs for the first time in the last 26 years. After barely beating out the Mets for the final National League playoff spot, Milwaukee heads back to Philadelphia, where they were recently swept in a four-game series from Sept. 11-14.

In that series, the Brewers were outscored 26-7 and were in the middle of firing their manager, Ned Yost. Since then, Milwaukee has won seven of 12 games, riding their newly acquired ace, CC Sabathia.

The Phillies edged out the Mets to take the N.L. East crown for the second consecutive year. Powered by Ryan Howard in the month of September, the Phillies will look to use their bats and trusty 'pen to win the series. Let it be known that the Phillies took the season series from the Brewers, 5-1.

The Brewers are very inexperienced and owe their playoff berth to one man, Mr. Sabathia. After pitching a complete game, four-hitter last Sunday to will the Brew Crew into the NLDS, Sabathia looks to start Game Two of the series once again on three days' rest, the fourth time he will have done so in his past four starts.

Is this guy Superman? The Brewers starting rotation is in shambles outside of Sabathia. The loss of All-Star Game starter, and 13-game winner, Ben Sheets could prove costly. Sheets will be lost for at least the Divisional Series, if not the entire playoffs, with elbow problems.

He was quoted as saying, "I got a broke arm, I got a broke arm. It's not really broke, but it's all I had for the year. Things definitely don't look like they're on my side." Broke or not broke, that’s terrible news for Brewers fans. Milwaukee will turn to Yovani Gallardo in Game One of the series, in hopes that the youngster has regained all his strength from a midseason injury. Gallardo (67 pitches) pitched very well last Thursday, in his first start since May 1.

In six games against the Phillies this year, the Brewers were outhit (.299 to .206), outscored (33 to 16), and walked eight fewer times than Philadelphia. Comparing season totals, however, the two teams have very similar offensive stats.

Philadelphia had the slight edge in most categories, including batting, runs scored, home runs, and OBP to name a few. Neither Sabathia nor Gallardo faced the Phillies this year, giving a slight advantage to both those two.

However, possible third starters Jeff Suppan/Manny Parra both got lit up. In his one start against Philadelphia, Parra allowed five earned runs in 1.1 innings pitched, while Suppan was 0-1 in two starts with a 5.91 ERA. I don’t even want to get started with the Brewers' bullpen, and their closer Salomon Torres, who, although reliable in the regular season, is anybodies guess come playoff time.

The Phillies head into the playoffs having won 13 of their last 16 games. Ryan Howard is unconscious at the plate, and starters Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, and Jamie Moyer are all rested and sharp.

After hitting a putrid .168 in the first month of the season, Howard turned in on in the second half, more specifically in September, hitting .352 with 11 home runs and 32 RBI in only 88 at-bats.

Speedsters Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino shared great success against the Brewers this year. In the four games they each played against Milwaukee, Rollins and Victorino combined for 14 hits, eight runs, three doubles, two home runs, eight RBI, seven walks, and respective batting averages of .538 and .500.

In addition, Chase Utley hit the Brewers at a .476 clip. If Charlie Manuel puts Victorino in the two hole, Brewers pitchers could have a tough one, two, and three on their hands.

In addition, Hamels, Myers, and Moyer combined to go 3-1 against the Brew Crew this year. All this and I haven’t even mentioned Brad Lidge, a lock for reliever of the year. The Phillies' bullpen, next to the Angels, is the strongest in the playoffs. If there are any close-scoring games in this series, it presents a huge advantage for the Phils.

The only way the Brewers contend in this series is if Gallardo gives them a chance to win Game One. If the Crew can steal game one from Hamels and the Phils, they have a fighting chance with Sabathia going in Game Two and probably Game Five if they can last that long.

The Brew Crew will need a huge series from their big bats, Ryan Braun, and Prince Fielder. If not, this series will be over in a hurry.

Prediction: Phillies in four

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs

10/1 - LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs - 6:30 PM
10/2 - LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs - 9:30 PM
10/4 - Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers - 10:00 PM
10/5 - Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers - TBD
10/7 – LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – TBD

The Cubs are back in the playoffs! Let it soak in for a moment. Can the Cubs secure a Divisional Series win, or dare I say their first World Series in 100 long years? They definitely have the team to do it and are the favorites to come out on top in the National League.

Their 97-64 record was good for second in the majors, and their 55-26 record in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field was second to only the Rays and Red Sox.

Grasp this: The Los Angeles Dodgers have won ONE postseason game, ONE in the past 19 years! In contrast, the Cubs have won seven. Not great, but surely better than one! I know, I know, the Cubs are cursed, but I really think they have the strongest team heading into the postseason.

In seven games this season, the Cubs won five of those contests against the Dodgers, slightly outscoring them 19-18. After looking at the numbers, it looks to be a close series, but I’m not buying into it.

The Cubs are firing on all cylinders right now, have no injuries, are well rested, and have home-field advantage. They scored the second most runs in the majors (855), were second in .OBP (.358), and had the fifth-highest team batting average (.278).

Contrast that with the Dodgers (700/.333/.264), good for 24th, 14th, and 14th, respectively, in the Senior Circuit.

Surprisingly, the Dodgers had the best ERA in the National League (3.68), while the Cubs sat in a close third (3.87). In the games played against each other this year, the two teams battled very closely. Team batting, home runs, and RBI were each separated by very slim margins (.238 to .235, 6 HR to 4 HR, and 80 RBI to 78 RBI), all in favor of the Cubbies.

The North Siders swept the Dodgers at home in a three-game series from May 26-28, and split a four-game set in Los Angeles from June 5-8.

I love the Cubs' starting staff, if only they can remain healthy. Zambrano might not be at full strength, and you can’t ever count on Rich Harden to not get injured. That being said, adding Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly into the mix creates a four-headed monster that no team in the postseason can compare to.

Combined, the foursome went an astonishing 53-22 on the year. Dempster went a ridiculous 14-3 at Wrigley this year, while Game Two starter Carlos Zambrano went a solid 7-2.

Dempster and Zambrano went a combined 1-1 in four starts against the Dodgers this year, while Lilly and Harden didn’t face the Dodgers at all. That could seriously favor the Cubbies. In four opportunities, closer Kerry Wood was perfect, saving four games, while striking out eight and walking only one.

The Cubbies' lineup is stacked and has everything you need: speed, power, and average. All Cubs starters posted an .OBP of over .350, with the exception of exceptional leadoff hitter, Alfonso Soriano.

They have veteran presence in Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Soriano, Jim Edmonds, and Mark DeRosa. And they have solid youngsters in Ryan Theriot and Geovany Soto.

The Dodgers won the West with a subpar 84-78 record. They were helped and carried in large part by midseason addition, Manny Ramirez. They have a solid core of battle-tested veterans in Ramirez and Jeff Kent (possibly not in the series), and a nice trio of youngsters in Ethier, Kemp, and Loney.

The Dodgers have a very deep bench if you consider Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, and Mark Sweeney. And let's not forget one of the best postseason managers ever in Joe Torre.

I’m not in love with the Dodgers' rotation, though. In two starts, Derek Lowe pitched very well against the Cubs, posting a 1-0 record with a sterling 1.93 ERA. Game Two starter, Chad Billingsley, got roughed up in his two starts against the Cubbies, posting an 0-1 record with a 4.91 ERA.

The Dodgers' bullpen worries me a little bit with Broxton having never experience a postseason before.

So, let’s add this up. Both teams’ first two probable starters went 1-1 against each other this year, and in the seven games played, there was only a one-run difference. I know how loud it can get at Chavez Ravine, and I think the Dodgers can win one game, but that’s it.

Call me crazy, but I don’t think the series will be as close as the numbers may suggest. I’m looking for a monster performance from both Ramirez’s, Aramis and Manny. I think the Cubs' starting staff and bullpen give them the edge. Don’t say I’m jinxing it, because a lot of people are picking the Cubbies, but here it goes:

Prediction: Cubs in four

There you have it! And just for good measure, I'm taking the Cubs over the Rays to win it all.