Bleacher Report - Articles by Andrew Kneeland

Busting the Myth: Why the Vikings Should Be Considered Elite

Andrew Kneeland — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 22:11:56 -0500

For even the most optimistic of fans, the 2009 season of the Minnesota Vikings has been a pleasant surprise.

Looking more dominant every week, the Vikings have been unable to grab the national attention and top position in power rankings they feel they deserve because of two undefeated teams in front of them.

The Vikings have a single check in their loss column, but does that make them worthy of our respect?

This year, Minnesota is a land of Norwegians, lutefisk, and potent offensive attacks. After enduring the never-ending Brett Favre saga during the off-season, Vikings' fans have been rewarded with one of the most complete offensive games in the league.

This combination of talented receivers is what is giving Favre an MVP-caliber season. To think otherwise would be foolish. Like the guy or not, it is plainly evident that Favre is one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history.

The fact that he is having his best statistical season at age 40 should be an indicator of the kind of team he has been provided with. Favre is not without his fair share of tall, athletic, and fast receivers and running backs.

Claiming that Minnesota hasn't established itself as a premier team is ridiculous.

While their defense is abnormally average this season, the Vikings are enjoying of the best offensive seasons in many years. In fact, outside of 1998 this may be the least offensively challenged teams for the past few decades.

For a team as offensively debilitated as the Vikings usually are, this year has been a culture shock to fans, to say the least.

Those who claim that Minnesota shouldn't be considered an elite team usually reference the fact that the Viking's opponents have a combined winning percentage of just .592. This point is quite valid and could have some merit, but should do nothing to prove the opposite.

Yes, the Vikings have had their way with some astonishingly weak teams this season. Minnesota has played the Browns, Rams, Bears, Seahawks, and Lions a combined six times. But does having six of your ten wins come against poor teams somehow take away your elite status?

I should hope not.

The Vikings didn't choose their opponents. There is nothing they can do about being scheduled to play inferior teams. The fact that they are steam-rolling them should not have as much impact on how they are ranked as some people are giving it.

Sure, as a Vikings' fan I would like for some high-profile victories. If Minnesota had beaten the Steelers, Cardinals, and Chargers instead of the Browns, Seahawks, and Lions, the Vikings would certainly be receiving more notoriety than they are now.

But in the end, though, a win is a win, no matter how small.

For the record, I have no problem at all with both the Colts and Saints being ranked higher than the Vikings. They haven't lost a contest yet, and deserve to be on the top.

Minnesota has dropped just one game all season—a close one to the Steelers—and to consider them much inferior to either the Colts or Saints would be a mistake.

Defense aside, the Vikings are very capable of matching either the Colts or Saints across the board. All three teams have high-quality quarterbacks, a few play-making receivers, and a tight end able to haul in a few passes.

The Vikings, though, are capable of defeating either team in any venue. Although I would take both Drew Brees and Peyton Manning over Favre, the 40-year old has proven himself to be very able to come up big in crucial situations.

Favre hasn't been without help. Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian, both above-average wide receivers, have been complemented this year with the emergence of rookie Percy Harvin, the early favorite to win offensive Rookie of the Year.

Tight end Visanthe Shiancoe and running back Chester Taylor are also great at catching passes from Favre.

Oh, and there is a running back named Adrian Peterson who's apparently pretty good, as well.

The offensive line isn't as good as it's been in recent years, but it has proven perfectly capable of protecting Favre. The veteran quarterback has been sacked just 22 times this year while never fumbling the ball and throwing just three interceptions.

As a testement to how talented the offense of Minnesota is, consider that Tarvaris Jackson, in six games this year, has a passer rating of 124, has thrown 159 yards in 10 completions, and hasn't been picked off.

The Minnesota Vikings are a very talented team, and one of the best in the NFC. They will have their challenges, no doubt, but deserve to be considered one of the elite teams in the NFL.

Minnesota Twins Top-15 Prospects: No. 12: BJ Hermsen

Andrew Kneeland — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 09:45:10 -0500

2009 stats: 1.35 ERA, 53.1 IP, 42/4 K/BB, 0.675 WHIP at GCL (Rook)
Last year’s rank: Not ranked
Acquired: Sixth round selection of the Minnesota Twins in the 2008 draft

BJ Hermsen exploded onto the scene this past year, his first in professional baseball. The 20-year old-right-hander from Iowa doesn't boast the velocity you'd expect from a 6-foot-6, 230-pound former three-sport athlete. Attending West Delaware High School in Iowa, Hermsen was among the state leaders as a 25.7 points per game basketball player, quarterback, and right-handed pitcher. Being a big, athletic guy, Hermsen's delivery is understandably slow, but remarkably smooth.

Hermsen's fastball currently sits at around 91-92 mph, but he also claims a plus changeup and slider in his repertoire. The right-hander has the potential to develop his 10/4 curveball into a plus pitch, but based on what I've heard, Hermsen started throwing that pitch as a teenager. The 10/4 curveball wreaks havoc on a young pitcher's arm, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Hermsen go down with an injury in the near future.

Besides an unfortunate football injury during his high school career (to his collarbone, I believe) Hermsen has remained relatively healthy and appears to be capable of adding a few miles per hour onto his already deadly fastball.

Perhaps the most appealing aspect of Hermsen's pitching, though, is his impeccable control. During 10 starts this summer in the Gulf Coast League, Hermsen walked just four batters while striking out 42. Hermsen doesn't strike out many per nine innings of pitching (just 7.1), but his strikeout to walk ratio of 10.5 is extremely impressive.

This summer, Hermsen didn't do an exceptionally good job at missing bats, and relied on the GCL Twins' defense for his 1.35 ERA. Still, Hermsen didn't surrender a single home run in the 50-plus innings he pitched, and he limited his number of baserunners very well.

Some projected Hermsen to go in the first round of the 2008 draft, but his collarbone injury and the fact that Oregon State had offered him a full-ride held some teams back. The Twins grabbed him in the sixth round, and paid him above-slot. So far, Hermsen appears to be worth every penny.

Ideal scenario: Hermsen thrives with the Beloit Snappers and gains some velocity on his fastball. He keeps his walk rate down, and misses more bats than he did in 2009.

Path to the majors: Hermsen has the makings of a potential ace, and has an already-developed repertoire of pitches. He could advance a few levels at a time for the next few years and conceivably land in the Minnesota rotation in 2012 or 2013.

Originally from TwinsTarget.com

Top 15 Minnesota Twins Prospects: No.13: Rene Tosoni

Andrew Kneeland — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 09:58:57 -0500

2009 stats: .271/.360/.454, 490 PA, 15 HR, 98/45 K/BB at New Britain (AA)
Last year’s rank: Not Ranked
Acquired: 34th round selection of the Minnesota Twins in the 2004 draft; 36th round selection of the Minnesota Twins in the 2005 draft

Before 2009, Rene Tosoni was simply an average corner outfield prospect who got on base at an above-average clip. Besides his pure hitting ability, there really wasn’t anything special to the young left-handed batter from California.

Tosoni didn’t have great speed on the base paths, didn’t walk at an abnormal rate, and didn’t possess any power to speak of. When Tosoni was brought up among Twins’ bloggers, there wasn’t much to talk about, other than an anecdote regarding a visa snafu in 2006.

In 2009, Tosoni hit 15 home runs and 25 doubles, both career highs. For the first time in his career, though, Tosoni’s on-base percentage dropped below .400 and he nearly doubled his strikeout total. This can be partially attributed to his atrocious splits against left-handed pitchers, against whom he hit just .183/.285/.302 in 2009.

Tosoni’s BABIP was well below his career average this season, however, so expecting a progression to his mean wouldn’t be far-fetched. Still, Tosoni has always struggled against southpaws and will need to improve if he wants to be of major-league caliber.

Conceivably, Tosoni could be an effective fourth outfielder and a solid bat off the bench on days when a right-handed pitcher is on the mound. If he’s able to maintain a level of respectability against left-handed hurlers, Tosoni could be an everyday outfielder for just about any team in baseball.

Ideal scenario: Tosoni starts the season in Rochester and works on his patience at the plate while learning how to hit left-handed pitchers from hitting coach Riccardo Ingram. He could be a call-up in 2010 for the Twins if someone goes down with an injury or a bench bat is needed for a pennant drive.

Path to the majors: The Delmon Young experiment is reaching a breaking point, and Tosoni could be called upon if the former first-overall pick fails to hit in 2010.

Top 15 Twins Prospects: No.14: Tyler Robertson

Andrew Kneeland — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 13:11:08 -0500

14. Tyler Robertson, LHP, 21 years old

2009 stats: 3.33 ERA, 143.1 IP, 103/51 K/BB, 1.326 WHIP at Ft. Myers (A+)

Last year’s rank: 7

Acquired: Third-round selection of the Minnesota Twins in the 2006 draft.

This past year was Tyler Robertson’s second year with the Fort Myers Miracle, and the first in which he managed to stay healthy for a complete season. Robertson has taken a few steps back since 2007, when he was one of the best prospects in the Twins’ system.

Robertson’s ERA has been inflated by more than a run, but more note-worthy is the fact that the young left-hander from California pitched to contact in 2009 and saw his strikeout rate greatly reduced.

Despite being listed at 6’5’’, Robertson manages to get just 88 mph on his fastball. Left alone, this clearly won’t be an effective pitch in the major leagues, but his slider and changeup are quite good.

Robertson also throws a decent curveball at around 67 mph. Perhaps the biggest problem with Robertson is his bizarre mechanics, which are the main culprit for his injury-plagued career. At 6’5’’, Robertson is relatively bulky, but not un-athletic.

He will undoubtedly need a fair amount of tweaking in his mechanics, but Robertson has a solid repertoire of pitches that he can throw for strikes. He doesn’t possess a killer out-pitch, and will probably be forced to rely on the defense behind him more often than not.

The high strikeout-rates of his first two seasons in professional baseball are most likely an aberration, and Robertson will be a contact pitcher in the future.

Ideal scenario: Robertson, with the help of pitching coach Stu Cliborn, tweaks his mechanics for the better with the New Britain Rock Cats and gains a few miles of velocity on his fastball.

Robertson could be a bullpen-bolstering September call-up in 2011, and possibly enter the rotation in 2012 as a 24-year old.

Path to the majors: The Twins have a young rotation, but Baker will be 31 years old in 2012 and Robertson could transition in nicely.

Top 15 Twins Prospects: #15: Deolis Guerra

Andrew Kneeland — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 13:35:46 -0500

The Minnesota Twins are known throughout the league for their deep minor league organization and uncanny ability to supplement established major-league players with young minor-league talent.

This past year has seen some ebb and flow in several aspects of Minnesota’s minor league system. While there are plenty of elite pitching prospects now in the Twins’ system, there is a lack of middle infielders.

Overall, the Twins have a fairly average minor league organization relative to the league average.

At about this time last year, I published my Top 15 prospects. It’s time for another go-around!

It’s not often I get the chance to subjectively rank anything, so I am savoring this opportunity. For a numbers nerd like me, though, weighing several variables based solely on my opinion is quite a bizarre feeling.

I attempted to conjure a formula for my Top 15 prospects last year, which worked to some extent. I wasn’t happy with the results, though, and spent dozens of hours attempting to tweak the formula to suit my needs.

Needless to say, I failed.

The only way to effectively measure and rank young baseball prospects is arbitrarily, because quite a few things simply can’t be quantified. Young, toolsy players with high potential but little on-field success cannot be forgotten about in prospect rankings, yet didn’t fit into my finite formula.

So, despite my best attempts, I reached the conclusion that prospect rankings are best done subjectively. In the next few weeks I will share who I believe are the Top 15 prospects in the Twins’ system, with little mathematical evidence and a whole lot of my opinion. Enjoy!

15. Deolis Guerra, RHP, 20 years old

2009 stats : 4.69 ERA, 86.1 IP, 57/25 K/BB, 1.39 WHIP in Ft. Myers (A+); 5.17 ERA, 62.2 IP, 49/17 K/BB, 1.261 WHIP in New Britain (AA)
Last year’s rank : 4
Acquired: from New York Mets in Johan Santana trade

In spite of his seemingly endless struggles, there is no denying the ceiling of Deolis Guerra. Acquired by the Mets as a 17-year old, Guerra was hurried through the minors.

Starting his professional baseball career in Single-A, Guerra immediately endured hot and cold stretches. A year or two at lower levels would have been perfect for Guerra, and his fast progression through the minor leagues is proving to be his downfall.

Guerra has been discussed for years now – and the “bust” label has been readily applied — but he is still just 20 years old in a league where the average age among pitchers is 24. There is no need to simply give up on Guerra, as his strikeout-to-walk ratio has been steadily improving, as have his strikeouts.

Having a big frame, Guerra is very projectable. In the past, his fastball touched 97, but his changeup has always been his best pitch. Last year, his fastball was clocked in the low 90s. His fastball from a few years ago and current changeup are the only major-league ready pitches he possesses.

Having a much-improved walk rate from last year, the book hasn’t been closed on Guerra. The young right-hander from Venezuela has loads of potential, but is still a long way from re-discovering his status as a top prospect.

Ideal scenario : Guerra breaks out in 2010 with the New Britain Rock Cats and regains a handful of miles per hour on his fastball. He makes some progress with his curveball, and misses more bats than he has in the past. If he can accomplish that, he could be a quality #2 starter in a major-league rotation.

Path to the majors : We shouldn’t worry about when we might see Guerra in a Twins’ uniform. More important right now is that the young right-hander re-discovers himself and becomes relevant again.

Originally published at TwinsTarget.com

Rene Tosoni: The Future Of The Minnesota Twins Outfield

Andrew Kneeland — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 22:55:16 -0500

With the departure of Carlos Gomez , the role of most scrutinized player in the outfield has unequivocally been awarded to Delmon Young . His status as a below-average defender has been well-documented, and 2010 will be a do-or-die season for him. If he can't find some success at the plate, there will be little reason for the Twins to hang onto him.

The emergence of Rene Tosoni , 23, certainly isn't helping Young's cause. Should Young struggle in 2010, Tosoni could be a candidate for an early or mid-season promotion.

Tosoni is currently playing with the Mesa Solar Sox in the Arizona Winter League in Phoenix. Although his stats through the first 19 games aren't entirely impressive, what he did in the batter's box during the regular season for the New Britain Rock Cats should not go unrecognized. Hitting .271/.360/.454 with 15 home runs, Tosoni displayed marginal power while getting on base at an above-average clip.

Although Gomez—one of the best defensive center-fielders in the league—is no longer with the Twins, Tosoni could potentially step in at some point next season, shifting Denard Span to left field and bumping Young to the bench. While not an above-average defender in the outfield, Tosoni could more than make up with his bat the handful of runs he gives up defensively every season.

Before Tosoni can even think about a major-league promotion, though, the left-hander will have to resolve his struggles against left-handed pitchers.

This past season, Tosoni was atrocious against southpaws, hitting just .183/.285/.302 with an OPS of 587. The awful 2009 left-handed splits, though, are much worse than his career splits against left-handed pitchers. (Which, admittedly, are still awful. In his career as a professional baseball player, Tosoni has hit just three home runs against left-handed pitching while batting at a .231/.346/.343 clip.)

Despite this obvious struggle, Tosoni had a BABIP of just .253 against southpaws this past season—indicating no small amount of poor luck—so expecting a progression to his mean shouldn't be unreasonable.

Tosoni took a huge step forward with regard to his power this past season, hitting 15 home runs as a Rock Cat.

This quintupled his previous high, but it should be noted that 2009 was Tosoni's first full season. Although the power is good to see, Tosoni took a huge hit in his strikeout/walk ratio, and in turn, his on-base-percentage, which is still well above-average.

Even considering his numerous flaws, Tosoni is a solid outfield prospect who could see major-league playing time as a fourth outfielder/pinch hitter as soon as next season. If the Twins find themselves in another pennant race, Tosoni's ability to smash right-handed pitching may come in handy.

Fits Like a Glove: Placido Polanco

Andrew Kneeland — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 21:28:44 -0500

Much fuss has been made on this blog recently in regards to Minnesota's complete lack of a No. 2 hitter to bat behind Denard Span . I hold to my belief that it is the most important hole that remains to be filled, and should be taken care of before the starting rotation is addressed.

This decade, the average on-base-percentage of a No. 2 hitter in the American League is .338. The past ten years, the Twins have had anything but a consistent batter hitting behind the lead-off man. This past season Orlando Cabrera received the most at-bats in the No. 2 position, accruing a miserable OBP of .313. Before him, in 2008, Alexi Casilla was the regular No. 2 hitter, with a .333 OBP.

In fact, throughout the decade, just once has Minnesota been able to field a team with an above-average No. 2 hitter. In '07 Jason Bartlett put up a .337 OBP, in '05 Nick Punto sported a .301 OBP, and from '04 to '00 Cristian Guzman posted a combined OBP of .308.

The only year Minnesota has benefited from an above-average No. 2 hitter was in 2006, when Punto put up a .353 OBP in 90 games from the No. 2 position.

Placido Polanco has a career OBP of .348, ten points above the AL's average from the No. 2 spot in the batting order this decade. Without considering Polanco's defense, speed, or power, the potential acquisition already makes a lot of sense, even though some in Minnesota are tired of stop-gap solutions in the infield.

As far as UZR is concerned, Polanco would be no defensive liability in the Minnesota infield. Ranked as the best defensive second-baseman last season, Polanco committed just two errors in 151 games last season for a fielding percentage of .997. Distrust fielding percentage though I may, you can't push the "Small Sample Size" button on that stat.

On the basepaths, Polanco is much less valuable. Contributing an estimated 1.3 runs to the Tigers last year, Polanco wasn't an effective base-stealer, but more than made up for it in his EqAAR (Equivalent Air Advancement Runs). Despite being the 103rd best overall base-runner , Polanco was ranked 9th in EqAAR , meaning that he made wise decisions regarding when to take an extra base.

Offensively, Polanco hit .285/.331/.396 with an OPS of 727. Although he has no real power to speak of, Polanco did launch ten homeruns this past season, the first time he's hit double-digits in that category in over four years. (Though none of those ten were "no-doubters ," indicating that he will regress to his recent mean of six or seven.)

Overall, though, Polanco is a solid offensive player with a great defensive glove. Earning 3.1 WAR this past season with Detroit, Polanco is supposedly worth $14 million per season on the free agent market. Having made just $4.6 million the last four years, though, a payday that big is unlikely. Considering his age, Polanco is probably going to continue to receive around $5 million per season, with perhaps a few million more as incentive for staying healthy.

Even at $8 million per season, the Twins have the extra money needed to sign the 33-year-old veteran. Considering the (presumably) $5 million the Twins will owe JJ Hardy for his services next season, the Twins should still have around $14 million in budget room for the 2010 season. Even though some money needs to be saved for the potential restructuring of Joe Mauer 's contract, Polanco cannot be considered too expensive.

(UPDATE - Completely forgot to mention the fact that Polanco is a Type A free agent, meaning the Twins will be forced to surrender a first-round draft pick to the Tigers if they choose to sign the veteran second-baseman. Thanks to TwinsOnTwins for reminding me of this, but it still should be apparent that Polanco is worth the draft pick.)

Sticking Polanco into the Twins' lineup would do nothing but good. Besides providing Minnesota with an above-average bat to stick into the No. 2 hole in the batting order, Polanco would give the Twins one of the best defensive infields in all of baseball.

Originally published at TwinsTarget.com .

Is Carl Pavano Worth Bringing Back?

Andrew Kneeland — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 23:06:34 -0500

Following the acquisition of JJ Hardy, there are two major needs on this Minnesota team. First, and in my opinion the most important, a No. 2 hitter is needed to bat behind Denard Span.

With his new-found power, the Twins desperately need to find a way to get runners on base for Joe Mauer; batting third this past season, Mauer was 103rd in the league in total number of runners on base when he was at the plate. His 19.15 RBI percentage—ninth in the league of those with at least 250 chances—demands that he be given more opportunities.

A player like Placido Polanco, Mark DeRosa, or even Orlando Hudson would greatly improve the offensive output of the team.

A secondary need of the Twins, though, is a solid starting pitcher. Currently, three rotation spots are occupied: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Nick Blackburn. The fifth spot will likely contain Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Francisco Liriano, or one of any number of other minor-league options the Twins have available to them.

A postseason rotation of Baker, Slowey, and Blackburn—while not overly intimidating—could prove capable of winning a series in October. During the 162 games leading up to that (hopeful) playoff berth next season, though, a fourth starter will need to be found.

Obviously, the most desirable option for Twins' fans to dream about would be either a trade for Josh Johnson or the signing of injury-prone ("but not THAT injury prone" ) Rich Harden.

Should both of those options be unavailable for general manager Bill Smith, would the Twins be better off by leaving the starting rotation alone, or would the addition of Pavano actually benefit the club?

According to ESPN's Inside Edge , Pavano was an above-average pitcher in 2009. Sixty-eight percent of batters faced received first-pitch strikes, ten percent above the league average. The scouting report also shows that Pavano had an above-average command of both his fastball and off-speed pitches, as well as extremely efficient outings.

One of the most important flaws in Pavano's game, though—besides being injury-prone—is his fly-ball tendencies. There is no telling how the open-air Target Field will influence that, but the 2010 defensive trio of Young/Span/Cuddyer should scare any fly-ball pitcher.

A telling statistic for Pavano this past season is his .335 BABIP, indicating that he suffered from extreme amounts of poor luck. Also, just five of the 26 home runs Pavano surrendered in 2009 were "no doubters ," meaning the ball cleared the fence by at least 20 vertical feet and landed at least 50 feet past the fence.

Despite an unattractive 5.10 ERA, and the most earned runs allowed in the league, Pavano's wins above replacement (WAR) for 2009 was 3.7, meaning he is worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $13 million per year on the free agent market.

Assuredly, no team will be willing to gamble $13 million a year on a player who spent much of '07 and '08 on the disabled list. Counting on Pavano to make even 20 starts in a season would be foolish, but he would be a quality starting pitcher on most teams.

If the Twins are not able to land a top-tier starting pitcher this offseason, bringing back Pavano for a year or two with a reasonable, incentive-laden contract wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

Bringing back a veteran starting pitcher capable of winning 15 games would certainly be better than leaving the Minnesota starting rotation alone.

The Akinori Iwamura Trade That Almost Was

Andrew Kneeland — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:40:16 -0500

Despite the anxious wishes of Twins’ fans everywhere, the Twins have yet to make their first move this offseason.

Akinori Iwamura , 30, was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates a few days ago for young reliever Jesse Chavez . Considering the relatively low price, it’s a shame the Twins were unable to convince the Tampa Bay Rays they were the best recipient for their veteran second baseman.

I’m not sure why the Twins weren’t able to top Pittsburgh’s offer of Chavez. Surely a Rob Delaney or Anthony Slama would have been enough, right? Of course, this is assuming that Bill Smith was involved in the trade talks. Judging from the circumstantial evidence, I find it hard to believe that he wasn’t.

Brian Buscher was outrighted to the minor leagues on Tuesday morning, just hours before the trade of Iwamura was announced. This freed up a spot on the 40-man roster, which was the main reason people thought the Twins were involved in the Iwamura trade talks.

Iwamura has a club option on his contract for 2010. The decision to either pick up this option or pay the $250K buyout needed to be made by the day after the World Series ended.

Considering the fact that Minnesota has all winter to shuffle their roster, the outright of Buscher before the end of the World Series could mean essentially two things: The Twins were either involved in trade talks involving a player whose team didn’t want to pick up next year’s option, or Buscher had shot Smith’s dog.

Unfortunately, for whatever reason, Minnesota failed to acquire Iwamura.

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Even though he would have come with a $4.25 million price tag, Iwamura would have been a perfect fit with the Twins.

It’s no secret that the No. 2 spot in the Twins’ batting order was a black hole consistently filled with ineptitude. The league average on-base-percentage for the No. 2 hitter this season was .337. For Minnesota it was .306.

Iwamura’s 2010 ZiPS projection for on-base-percentage is .347, well above the league-average. Even though he wouldn’t provide any power or speed to speak of, Iwamura would be able to consistently get on base, which is all you can ask of a No. 2 hitter.

To further articulate Iwamura’s value, one needs look no further than his above-average plate discipline and the fact that he is one of the better line-drive hitting second baseman in the league.

Besides the offensive benefit Iwamura could have provided the Twins, his defensive versatility should also be considered. Able to effectively play third base, Iwamura could have manned the hot corner until Danny Valencia was deemed ready to take over.

Perhaps the only down-side to Iwamura is the fact that he would have been another left-handed batter on a team already chock-full of them.

Clearly, Iwamura could have solved a huge problem in the Minnesota infield. Unfortunately, he is no longer an option and Smith must move on.

Now, the question is “How desperate is Smith to get a second baseman now that his first choice is gone?” Will he diligently research and pursue another viable option, or will he throw away a few top prospects for the first free agent he sees?

Let’s hope for the former.

Minnesota Vikings Impress In A Game They Had No Business Losing

Andrew Kneeland — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 20:56:50 -0400

Sunday's 27-17 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers was a painful game for the Minnesota Vikings, to be sure, but one they had no business losing.

Plenty of things went right for the NFC North-leading Vikings, who stuck with the favored Pittsburgh Steelers for virtually the entire game. Questionable play-calling and poor luck got in between Minnesota and a perfect record, though, and the Vikings fell to 6-1 on the season.

Heading into the game, much ado was made regarding the injury and absence of Minnesota corner back Antoine Winfield. The Viking's best defensive back, Winfield would force the Steelers to think twice before launching the ball down field.

With Winfield out for a month, the consensus among fans was that Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger would have at least one receiver open all day. It was thought he would be free to pick apart the corner back-by-committee approach the Vikings would take.

During the game, few throws were lofted downfield. The only extended period of time when Roethlisberger was able to consistently find open receivers for 20-25 yard gains was at the end of the first half, when Minnesota was implementing a soft cover-two defense with extremely deep safeties.

Other than that 1:39, the Steelers were held mainly to the ground. This wasn't of particular concern to Pittsburgh, however, as they managed to have success against the suddenly-porous Minnesota rush defense.

In the first half, the Minnesota defense was surprisingly solid. Despite having to deal with horrible field position because of awful punting, the Vikings held Pittsburgh to just three points (not including the touchdown resulting from the poor defensive scheme at the end of the half.)

Earlier in the half, however, Minnesota had perhaps the best offensive drive of the season. Going 76 yards on 13 plays, Brett Favre led Minnesota down the field with methodical dips and dukes to his receivers.

The perfect picture of Minnesota's ideal offense was painted when Favre mixed in the occasional 15-20 yard heave to Sidney Rice. If opposing defenses want to know how to stop the Vikings, they need look no further than the drive that resulted in an Adrian Peterson two-yard touchdown dive.

Minnesota had the ball with 3:30 remaining in the half while holding a slim lead. Completing one first down, the Vikings found themselves near midfield, and in prime position to add to their lead going into the half. If coach Brad Childress didn't feel comfortable going for the end-zone, another acceptable strategy would have been running the clock down.

Instead of going for the points or consuming time, however, Childress and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell accessed their infuriatingly conservative playbook. The play that stuck out the most, though, was on third-and-15, with just under two minutes remaining in the half.

Bevell called for a Chester Taylor dive up the middle, in essence forfeiting the drive. Minnesota was forced to punt, and Roethlisberger took over at his own nine-yard line with 1:39 remaining. That drive resulted in a touchdown.

Rashard Mendenhall tore apart the Vikings during the first drive of the second half, which ended in a Pittsburgh field goal to push the score to 13-7.

With seven minutes remaining in the third quarter, Childress called for the Vikings to attempt a fourth-and-one from Pittsburgh's 35 yard line, much to the joy of Minnesota fans everywhere.

Favre connected with Sidney Rice for the first down, who ran the ball down the one-yard line to set up the eventual Minnesota field goal. The relationship that has developed between Rice and Favre is certainly worth mentioning and probably deserving of its own column.

Without the mentoring and right arm of Favre, Rice would have never reached the level of performance he has so far this year. Putting up two consecutive 100-yard games, Rice has impressed upon Vikings' fans the importance of a veteran in the locker room.

Later in the third quarter, the Steelers were in a first-and-goal position thanks to two big plays from Mendenhall and Santonio Holmes. A touchdown would have given Pittsburgh a 10-point advantage, but a Mendenhall fumble helped spark a long Minnesota drive.

Following three penalties early in the fourth quarter, Minnesota faced a third-and-18 from their own 23-yard line. Needing a big play to keep the potential go-ahead drive alive, Rice did his best impression of Vikings' great Cris Carter on the right sideline, completing a 25-yard pass that was originally ruled an in-completion.

Perhaps the most frustrating penalty call of the game occured at the most inopportune time for the Vikings. A 10-yard touchdown throw to Rice was nullified by a supposed tripping penalty (seen at the 2:00 mark of NFL-Scoreboard-Vikings-Steelers-highlights">this video ) by Jeff Dugan.

This penalty fueled a 14-point turn around for the Steelers, as they forced a fumble and ran the ball across the field for a touchdown, putting the score to 20-10.

Rookie receiver Percy Harvin ran the ensuing kickoff back for a touchdown of his own, though, giving Minnesota the momentum despite still being down by three points.

The highlight-reel clip of the game came from Peterson in the play directly following the two-minute warning. Facing a critical third-and-four from his own 45-yard line, Favre shuffled a quick pass to Peterson up the middle.

Turning around after catching the ball, Peterson saw Pittsburgh's William Gay six inches from his face. Instead of attempting a spin, or juke, Peterson simply lowered his head and continued plowing forward for a gain of 29 yards. (See it here at the 3:06 mark. )

In the red zone with under two minutes to play, Favre had the chance to give the Vikings a four-point lead, but tossed the ball a bit too high to Chester Taylor. Unable to hold on, the ball slipped through Taylor's hands right into a Pittsburgh defender, who returned it for another Steeler touchdown, sealing the fate of the Vikings.

Although now with a blemished record, the Vikings hung with a very solid team at a hostile location. Remove a few questionable play-calls and a fluke interception, and Minnesota is still one of the best teams in the league.

That said, there are certainly some things the Vikings need to improve. While the conservative play-calling at critical times in the game probably won't cease, Minnesota would be doing themselves much good by working on both late-game pass defense and offensive tackling.

Next week, providing they are able to keep Aaron Rodgers upright, the Green Bay Packers will have a much easier time exploiting the absence of Winfield in the secondary. Benny Sapp, Karl Paymah, and Asher Allen all need to be at the top of their games.

Despite the great performance put up by the Vikings on Sunday against the Steelers, some improvement will be needed in order to maintain their leg-up on the rest of the NFC North.

Why Keeping Joe Crede Is a Must For The Minnesota Twins

Andrew Kneeland — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 18:22:57 -0400

Despite playing just over half of the season, Joe Crede managed to be Minnesota's second most-valuable infielder. That's obviously not saying much—considering how Matt Tolbert and Alexi Casilla combined for 454 plate appearances this season—but for a guy who appeared to be his own voodoo doll, it's quite the accomplishment.

Crede spent just under half the season on the disabled list. Recovery from back surgery, a strain in his lower back, a right shoulder irritation, a bruised left knee, an injured right hand, and a sore hamstring should all be flashing, neon signs to stay away from this injury-prone 31-year-old, right?

Wrong. Like it or not, an injury-prone third baseman may be exactly what the Twins need in 2010.

When healthy, Crede was exactly what Minnesota expected when they signed him to a one-year deal last year: A great defensive third baseman with some occasional pop in his bat. Even though he had an on-base-percentage that would make Carlos Gomez blush, Crede provided a slugging-percentage of .414 and added 15 of the team's 172 home runs.

While Crede absolutely would have played better if healthy the entire season, there is another large reason why he needs to be re-signed for the 2010 campaign: He's the best option.

The Twins have huge holes at the three infield positions left of first base, and we've already decided that Nick Punto will start at one of them . That leaves two gaps that must be filled with the $19.3 million we've determined Minnesota has available to them.

One simple solution would be to allow Brendan Harris and Matt Tolbert to continue to platoon at the hot corner; despite the horrendous on-base-percentages, neither has awful defense. This would allow time for the much-overhyped, yet remarkably consistent, Danny Valencia to slowly be handed the full-time gig.

Yet, Crede would cost just over $3 million. If he stayed healthy the entire 2010 season, Crede would provide a powerful bench bat after Valencia assumes the third-base role. Assuming that Crede misses a large portion of the season, he would still provide similar numbers to 2009 while helping to mentor the young third-base prospect.

Doing some simple deductions, a $3 million, one-year offer to Crede would leave $16.3 million for the remaining middle infield position, any rotation holes that need patching, and a potential restructuring of Joe Mauer 's contract. (Mauer makes $12.5 million this season, and part of a long-term extension could increase that to around $20 million. Keeping an extra $8 million on hand for Mauer is necessary)

Crede is a much more desirable option than a Harris/Tolbert platoon. Not only is Crede able to provide some decent offensive pop, but his glove at third base is the best in the league .

Few teams will want to commit more than $3 million to the injury-prone Crede. For the Twins, though, $3 million is a very affordable price for a much-needed commodity.

The Joe Mauer Situation

Andrew Kneeland — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 19:15:14 -0400

Winning the division and going to the postseason is not a treat awarded every team. Many would agree that the Twins enjoyed a respectable 2009 campaign, despite it being a roller coaster of emotion. Fans survived the low moments, and enjoyed the high points.

Mishandling the re-signing of Joe Mauer , however, could de-rail the roller coaster for years to come.

Coming off perhaps the best offensive season by a catcher in the history of baseball, Mauer has all the contract leverage in the world. He is currently signed through 2010, but re-signing him to a long deal as soon as possible is obviously desirable.

On the free agent market, a player typically earns anywhere from $4 to $5 million per Win Above Replacement (WAR) annually. Considering various stints on the disabled list throughout Mauer's short career, he has amassed 27.9 WAR through about 4.3 seasons, which breaks down to about 6.48 WAR per full season. On the open market, Mauer could get roughly $30 million a year. That's just about the yearly payroll of the Florida Marlins .

And that's the last you will hear me talk of Mauer on the free agent market, as it cannot happen. Baseball would never be the same if there were a bidding war for the rights to a 26-year old catcher with Mauer's resume. Just about every head would roll in the Twins' organization if Mauer were allowed to walk.

Besides, if Mauer were gone Twins' fans would burn the publicly-funded Target Field to the ground.

Clearly, the Twins cannot afford to let Mauer walk as a free agent. They also can't afford to let him enter his contract year without having signed a long-term extension. As Nick Nelson points out in the GM's Handbook , (which you should all buy. But more on this excellent book at a later date), an un-signed Mauer in 2010 would bring a plethora of distractions to the new Target Field.

The only other alternative to re-signing Mauer immediately would be to dangle him on on the trade market, where a few (read: two, from the northeastern United States) teams would enter a bidding war with Twins' general manager Bill Smith . It's not that I don't have confidence in Smith's negotiating ability (and I don't), but there is no equal value for Mauer. The Red Sox gave up a handful of their top-ten prospects for Victor Martinez , who is considerably inferior on offense and not in the same league defensively as Mauer.

While trading Mauer would give the Twins' farm system a much-needed replenishing, would it be worth giving up perhaps the best catcher in baseball history?

Probably not. No, the only realistic solution to the Joe Mauer situation is to re-sign him for the foreseeable future. That said, Mauer could very well desire more money than the Twins have available much like Johan Santana did. But Mauer has expressed his desire to remain in his home state, even at a discount. That is awfully generous of him, but will the Twins be able to afford even the discount?

Mauer will almost certainly shatter all Twins' records for the highest contract ever issued, but from Minnesota's perspective, it must be made. No one will come save the day, "deus ex machina"-style. (Incidentally, Mauer's agent, Ron Shapiro was also the agent of Cal Ripken and Kirby Puckett , both of whom played their entire careers for the same team. If anyone is to "save the day," and convince Mauer to stay in Minnesota for a far-cheaper contract, it would probably be Shapiro.)

Mauer could very well argue for a re-structuring of his current contract, which would probably earn him well more than the $12.5 million he is due next year. I am guessing, though, that Mauer will accept what he is currently slated to receive next year and negotiate an extension. Ultimately, I envision Mauer resigning with his home-town team and choosing family and friends over millions of dollars. Here is my estimate on Mauer's extension (with a full no-trade clause and various performance-based incentives):

Current contract:
2010: $12.5 million

Extension :
2011: $14 million
2012: $17 million
2013: $19 million
2014: $19 million
2015: $23 million
2016: $23 million
2017: $26 million
2018: $26 million

Total: 8 years/$167 million

Originally published by me at TwinsTarget.com .

Why Nick Punto Needs to Start For the Minnesota Twins

Andrew Kneeland — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 19:38:48 -0400

Following the infamous Game Three baserunning error, Nick Punto may be one of the most hated men in Minnesota. He ignored the (possibly late) stop signal from third-base coach Scott Ullger in favor of the roaring crowd. Punto probably ended up costing the Twins a run in that fateful Game Three, which ended up being the last of 2009, and the last in Metrodome history.

But that one mistake cannot replace a surprisingly solid season from the veteran utility infielder.

The following is a statement that may shock you, so please be warned: Punto leads the team in pitches taken per plate appearance with 4.2. Yes, more than Denard Span. Yes, more than even Joe Mauer. 13.9 percent of Punto's 440 plate appearances this past season resulted in walks. That percentage is higher than Mauer's 12.5 percent, and, again, leads the team.

Both his 4.2 pitches per plate appearance and 13.9 walk percentage are well above the league average.

While Punto swings at more first pitches than Mauer does, Punto swings at fewer pitches outside of the zone than his MVP-caliber teammate. (This could be accounted for by Mauer's sheer ability to hit poor pitches better than Punto, but it is still an interesting stat.) It seems ridiculous, but one could legitimately argue that Punto is the most patient hitter in Minnesota.

Putting aside the fateful miscue in Game Three, Punto remains one of the most effective base-runners in the league. In Baseball Prospectus' Eqivalent Baserunning Runs (EqBRR), Punto is ranked as the fourteenth best base-runner in the major leagues, and by far the best on the Twins. EqBRR takes into account virtually all aspects of baserunning, including actual stolen bases, advancement on fly balls, advancement on ground balls, and other such elements.

Punto is obviously a light hitter, and that is what alienates him to many fans, but he has his value. While he won't be leading any team in doubles or home runs, Punto is an above-average No. 9 hitter. His Wins Above Replacement this year was 1.2, and he has averaged just under 1.5 per full season. 1.5 WAR is certainly acceptable for the last hitter in your batting lineup.

Finally, on a point that could probably stand alone, Punto's fielding makes him entirely worth a full-time position in the lineup. His combined UZR this year was 5.1—not Franklin Gutierrez by any stretch, but essential for the ground-ball pitchers in Minnesota's rotation.

Perhaps the most compelling argument on Punto's worthiness to be a regular in the 2010 Minnesota infield, though, is the lack of other options. Brendan Harris is up for arbitration, Alexi Casilla is out of options, and Orlando Cabrera's contract is up. Punto's salary is the only one guaranteed, so if you put him on the bench or attempt to trade him you will be forced to fill second base, third base, and shortstop this winter.

Hardly a position you would want the Twins in, right?

Whichever middle infield position the Twins choose to address this winter—and I'll dive deeper into that as the season wears on—Nick Punto needs to start at one of them.

Originally published by me at TwinsTarget.com

Infurating Loss Puts Minnesota Twins In 0-2 Hole

Andrew Kneeland — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 01:07:57 -0400

3,208 and counting. That's the number of seismographs that have registered Joe Nathan's implosion in the bottom of the ninth inning Friday night against the New York Yankees.

Just days removed from one of the greatest victories in team history, the Twins lost perhaps the most frustrating game this side of 2002.

There are plenty of scapegoats ready for the very public dressing-down they are sure to receive from many Twins' fans, but none more so than All-Star closer Joe Nathan. Minnesota entered the bottom of the ninth inning three outs away from tying the series. It's not that difficult to retire three batters before surrendering a run -- as 73 percent of all innings have no runs scored, according to Baseball Prospectus -- but against the heart of the New York order it is another matter entirely.

That said, there is still no excuse for allowing a single to Mark Teixeira and a home run to Alex Rodriguez to tie the game. Fangraphs lists Nathan's WPA as -.458, which is extremely high yet doesn't quite seem high enough.

Of course, there are other blame-able parties in this extremely frustrating game. 17 runners left on base may be humorous in high-school junior varsity, but in a major league baseball game, it is purely unacceptable.

The most telling instance of this ineptitude with runners on base came in the most crucial situation: the top of the eleventh. Minnesota had managed to load the bases with no outs. Unfortunately, Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez were due up. All that was needed was a well-placed ground ball. Or a walk. Even a deep fly ball would have scored the go-ahead run.

But, obviously, this was too difficult for the Twins. Young lined out on the first pitch from David Robertson, and good baserunning prevented the double play. Gomez, not to be out-done, also swung mightily at the first pitch, grounding directly to first base, resulting in a force out at home.

The night's "hero" -- Brendan Harris -- flied out to center to end the threat. As everyone on this hemisphere foresaw, the Yankees hit a walk-off home run the next half-inning to permanently dampen all hopes of a Game 2 victory.

That's really all I have to say about this game. I won't even mention the Gomez base-running blunder or the infuriating missed call by left-field umpire Phil Cuzzi. After all, I can only take so much heart-break in one night.

Another much-needed off day will come tomorrow, then the series will move to the Metrodome. Another loss and the Twins will be eliminated, but with every win our postseason lives are extended.

In the words of Michael Cuddyer, "The guys have to remember what it was like last weekend when we were in the exact same no lose situation." Call me a homer, but anything is still possible, Twins' fans!

Originally published by me at TwinsTarget.com.

Minnesota Twins Out-Matched By New York Yankees In Game One

Andrew Kneeland — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 22:48:34 -0400

You have to hand it to the Yankees—they are exactly who we thought they were.

Brian Duensing didn't pitch poorly by any stretch of the imagination, but it is not difficult to surrender runs to this potent New York offense. Early on, Duensing was locked in, sprinkling his fastball in among his great breaking balls. He was getting ahead in the count and kept the ball on the ground, doing everything possible for his team.

It's cliche, I know, but one poor pitch to Derek Jeter was a major turnaround point in this game. After that two-run shot off the bat of Jeter, Duensing never returned to the dominant pitching he had going in the first few innings. I'll admit, however, that Duensing's final line of 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 SO is better than I expected out of a rookie making the first postseason start of his career.

It should be noted that Duensing gave up five runs in the tiny Yankee Stadium. Playing in this new stadium seems like the baseball equivalent of the Arena Football League: Everything is so small, you know it can't be "real" baseball.

C.C. Sabathia was perhaps the largest—no pun intended—reason the Twins lost. His slider was flawless tonight, and he struck out eight Twins batters in just under seven innings of work. He seemed virtually unhittable, even though he did scatter eight hits during his start. Even though we'll likely have to face Sabathia again this series (providing we win a game), it's good to know that it likely won't be before Game Four.

Like I said, the Twins did manage to get runners on base, tallying more hits than the Yankees on the night. The Twins were 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position, which should be considered totally unacceptable. Runs are worth their weight in gold in any baseball game, but even more so when playing the Yankees in New York.

The first three batters in the Minnesota lineup and Nick Punto went a combined 8-17 (.471), while the 4-5-6 hitters went 1-12 (.083). Delmon Young and Jason Kubel went a combined 0-8 with four strikeouts, which is also unacceptable, especially in the postseason.

As a side note, Kubel should not be in right field. He is a liability and, while the defensive aspect doesn't matter as much in the diminutive Yankee Stadium, his bat seems to come alive when he doesn't have to track down fly balls on defense. Denard Span should be in left field, Carlos Gomez in center, and Delmon Young in right with Kubel as the designated hitter. This allows Kubel to stay in the game if Gardenhire should opt to make a late-inning defensive substitution.

Fatigue was an issue in this game, but not the kind that has you falling asleep in the dugout. Gomez claimed to have slept from about 4 a.m. until noon, and I'm sure most other players had their fair share of shut-eye as well. No, the fatigue was not the kind displayed via bags under the eyes, but through sloppy play.

Minnesota now has the much-needed opportunity to spend a day napping on the couch and allowing themselves time for emotional and mental recovery. Although just a five-game set, this series is far from over.

Nick Blackburn will start on Friday for the Twins.

Originally published by me at TwinsTarget.com.

Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers Fans to Enjoy Free Fall Baseball

Andrew Kneeland — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:11:55 -0400

For the second time in as many years, 162 games aren't enough to determine the best team in the AL Central. If that isn't a testament to how evenly-matched the majority of the division is, I don't what would be.

Game 163 will be played at 4:00 p.m. on Tuesday afternoon on TBS. (Some of our clever readers have coined TBS as the "Tie-Breaker Station," or "Tigers Bawl Softly" on the Twins-Target/136707633067">Facebook group. Be sure to join the group and jump in on the conversation!)

Rick Porcello will take the mound for the opposition. Although just 20 years of age, Porcello is a top candidate for the AL Rookie of the Year award. He'll likely receive several first-place votes simply because of his 14-9 record.

Many may think that a 20-year old thrust into a pennant race isn't ideal, but 27-year old Scott Baker is no savvy veteran, either.

As their difference in age attests to, however, Porcello and Baker are almost completely different pitchers. Both throw a large percentage of fastballs, but Porcello will induce many groundballs thanks to his sinking fastball, while Baker leaves many of his fastballs up in the zone.

Look for Detroit to play as many athletic infielders as possible, while Minnesota will almost assuredly have the fleet-footed Carlos Gomez roaming center field.

Porcello pitches to contact more than his opponent, which gives a higher strikeout rate for Baker. Because he allows fewer groundballs than other Twins' starters, Minnesota may be able to slide the offensively capable (relatively speaking) Brendan Harris into the infield without a noticeable drop in defensive performance.

The venue may prove to be the difference in this game, as the Metrodome is notorious for being an extremely hostile environment. Over 50,000 fans waving Homer Hankies and screaming at the top of their lungs in a closed building will irk even veteran pitchers.

Porcello, who claims a 6.50 ERA and has surrendered a triple-slash line of .349/.391/.558 in just 10 innings at the Metrodome, could falter.

If he does, though, don't expect the Twins to walk away with an easy win. Remember, this is an elimination game, and everything possible will be done to win. If that means yanking Porcello in the second inning because he has loaded the bases, Jim Leyland will do just that.

Don't be at all shocked to see seven or more pitchers used by each team in Tuesday's contest.

As someone once said, "If a team needs to win, they're probably not that good in the first place." While that may be true, there will be two not-so-good teams going head-to-head on Tuesday night. The winner will get to play more baseball; the loser will not.

For now, though, the rest of the baseball world will turn their collective attention to the Metrodome on Tuesday night as they await the final member of the "Playoff Class of '09."

Eight teams play postseason baseball in October, and while it would be foolish to consider them as the eight best in all of baseball, it is an honor to advance where 22 other teams aren't allowed.

Whichever team pulls out the victory on Tuesday will be thrust into a five-game series with the New York Yankees. Although neither the Twins nor Tigers would be considered favorites, anything can happen in October baseball, as has been evidenced by an incredible 16-4 run by the Twins.

Here's hoping Tuesday's game in the Metrodome won't be the last.

Originally posted by me at TwinsTarget.com.

Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota Small-Ball, and the Three-Run Home Run

Andrew Kneeland — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 18:44:09 -0400

Ron Gardenhire is generally regarded as a good manager. He is a likable man and a likable manager, but that doesn't mean he isn't second-guessed.

Yesterday, in both games of a crucial doubleheader, Gardy made some questionable decisions. From an ill-advised suicide squeeze to not bringing in Jose Mijares to face a lefty, Twins' fans are split on Gardy.

Most like the man, some can't stand his managerial tactics.

It's accepted wisdom in baseball that left-handed pitchers perform better against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters, and vice versa. There are obviously exceptions, however, and a manager's judgement is usually best, so I'll let this one slide.

But some claim the so-called "small-ball spirit" Minnesota supposedly possesses accomplishes as much as the War of 1812 and should be stopped.

Should the Twins "progress/regress" into more of a station-to-station team, being patient at the plate, and waiting for the pitcher to hang a pitch that you could belt over the outfield wall?

While there are plenty of home-run hitting guys on this Minnesota team, patience is another matter entirely.

The Twins average 3.87 pitches per plate appearance, with Joe Mauer and Nick Punto (!) leading the way with over 4.16, and Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young bringing up the rear with around 3.53. The league average is actually just 3.84, but the Twins would need more patience if they wanted to completely eliminate the bunting and sacrificing from their "playbook."

If you haven't read the classic book, "Weaver on Strategy," I highly suggest you do so. Originally written in 1984, the short book describes how Earl Weaver, who sports a career .583 winning percentage and 13 seasons where his Baltimore Orioles finished either first or second in their division, manages a baseball game.

His biggest weapon? The three-run home run.

Of course, in order for that three-run home run to be your greatest offensive threat, you'll need quite a few base runners in front of your power hitters. Not surprisingly, "only one Weaver team failed to receive more bases on balls than its opponents," according to the book.

Theoretically, how would implementation of this strategy work for the Twins? Would the lineup be order similar to, or very different from, what is generally regarded as a "solid" lineup?

Originally published by me at TwinsTarget.com.

The Best Switch-Hitters in Minnesota Twins' History

Andrew Kneeland — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 18:34:51 -0400

Being a switch-hitter requires a great amount of determination, skill, and hand-eye coordination. Some of the all-time greats are considered greater still because of their ability to effectively hit the ball from both sides of the plate. Mickey Mantle, Pete Rose, Eddie Murray, Chipper Jones. The list goes on and on. Who are the best switch-hitters to ever put on a Twins' uniform, though? Here are the best switch-hitters in Twins' history, ordered by preferred position. To be fair, the prerequisite will be at least 100 games with Minnesota.

Begin Slideshow

Why Saving the Best Arm for the Last Inning Shouldn't be a Team's First Thought

Andrew Kneeland — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 01:42:44 -0400

The closer role has undergone perspicuous changes since baseball began.

The first relievers were coined “firemen” because of their ability to get struggling starting pitchers out of jams with minor damage. Pitchers like Dennis Eckersley and Goose Gossage earned their reputation playing this way.

Then, in 1969, the “save” became an official statistic. The game has never been the same since. Now, closers are typically the best pitchers on a team. Their pitches either go the fastest, curve the most, or sink the hardest, but they only pitch in the ninth inning when ahead by three runs or less.

While I would be perfectly willing to abandon the save rule, the last inning in a baseball game is certainly important.

More important than the last three outs of a game in which you lead by three runs, however, is in the fifth or sixth inning of a tied game, when the other team has loaded the bases.

Why wouldn’t you want your best reliever pitching in that situation? In this case, it has become common practice to send a “middle reliever” to try to stop the onslaught of runs. Instead of using your best reliever in this crucial scenario, most managers will save him for the ninth inning and hope his offense can get those runs back.

Clearly, a ridiculous strategy.

Derek Zumsteg did some research on this about five years ago at Baseball Prospectus. He learned that virtually any pitcher could retire three batters before giving up three runs. The best offensive team in baseball this year, the New York Yankees, scores an average of .63 runs per inning. If a pitcher gave up triple that in a save situation he would still be awarded a “save.”

My point is this: It’s not hard to defend a three- or even two-run lead in the ninth inning. A manager wouldn’t see much of a drop in effectiveness if he used an average relief pitcher in these situations in the place of his closer.

In fact, Zumsteg also found that Eric Gagne was only worth three games to his team in 2002, despite having one of the best seasons a modern-day closer could ever hope of having.

Of course, things could easily backfire if a manger chooses to pitch his best reliever earlier in the game. The score may remain close in the ninth inning, where you are forced to pitch a lesser reliever in an obviously higher-leverage situation.

Using your “closer” in emergencies in the middle innings has its risks, but so does allowing an inferior reliever the chance to pitch instead. Your best reliever should be used when the opposing team has the best opportunity to increase their chances of winning, regardless of the inning.

Closers, despite the denouement their name implies, should not be limited to the final innings. As the best pitcher on the team, it is their responsibility, at the discretion of their manager, to take over whenever necessary.

Official Twins Target recommendation? Fifth inning or later; score tied; bases loaded.

(Originally published by me at TwinsTarget.com)

Virtuous Patience: The Importance of the Walk, Part 1

Andrew Kneeland — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 00:58:05 -0400

"A man who is a master of patience is master of everything else." - George Savile

Modern media controls how the average fan views the game of baseball.

When they say that, "90 percent of the game is pitching," we tend to believe them. When they say that a player "is on a hot streak," we accept that as fact.

When they say, "this guy is great at working the count," we assume they are implying that walks are greatly beneficial to batters and disadvantageous to pitchers.

Is that really the case?

In this mini-series I will take a look at how bases on balls effect both a pitcher and a batter, and determine if they really are as important as the media would have us believe.

Up first, how important are walks in regard to the success of a pitcher?

(A disclaimer: The following pages include numbers, graphs, and other things some may or may not find harmful to their health. While I'm by no means a mathematics expert (I'm just a junior in high school, after all...what could a punk like me possibly know?) I do use (without proper explanation) a few terms that some may not know; such as r-squared, for example. That said, I again don't claim to be an expert. I'm nothing more than a passionate baseball fan.)

There are many ways to view this question. Let's start off modestly, though not exactly small, with every starting pitcher from the last five years, with at least 162 innings logged per season, and take a look at how walks issued correlates with ERA, the grand-daddy of pitching metrics.

This chart tells you exactly what you'd think a blob of blue squares would tell you: virtually nothing. While there is a slight increase in ERA when walks per nine innings increases, the correlation (a r-squared of just 0.08) is almost non-existent.

This is very puzzling. A pitcher with an ERA over 4.00 generally allows as many walks per nine innings as a pitcher with an ERA under 2.00. Small sample size isn't a major issue, as this is five years' worth of data; over 400 individual seasons.

If I were to stop here, the obvious conclusion would be that walks play no role in the success of a pitcher. But let's take a step back and take a look at things with a broader perspective.

Here is the relationship between the total number of walks allowed by a team over the course of a single season and the resulting team ERA, from 2004 to 2008.

Now we're starting to see some correlation. While 0.32 is hardly a solid enough number to accurately predict, it's enough for the kind of data we're dealing with.

So now we know that the number of walks a team issues has at least a marginal say in the overall success of a pitching staff.

Team wins, however, are the ultimate measure of success. Although there are dozens of other factors that play into the total number of wins a team has per season, pitching is perhaps the most important.

Here is the relationship between total number of walks allowed by a team's pitching staff and the number of wins that team had that season. (Again, this is data from the five years between 2004 and 2008.)

Just what you'd expect: a negative relationship between walks allowed and team wins. The r-squared is slightly higher than when comparing walks allowed to team ERA, meaning the number of walks allowed by a team has a greater, albeit minuscule, impact on team wins than team ERA.

Let's see if another form of evaluating pitchers (WHIP) stands true to form when compared to walks allowed. Of course, virtually half of the entire WHIP metric incorporates walks, so, if all goes according to plan, we should see a huge jump in positive correlation.

Sure enough, the r-squared is 0.58 - about as high as I can reasonably expect any statistic to take it. This doesn't really tell us much that shouldn't already be obvious, though, unless we take a look at how WHIP correlates to team wins...

That negative correlation is somewhat significant as well. So, via the ever-helpful transitive relation, the allowance of walks plays a role in the overall success of a team. Less walks equals better pitching equals more wins.

Let's take a quick look at another statistic that is widely accepted (at least in the sabermetric universe...good luck getting a broadcaster to use this) as being capable of evaluating a pitcher's true talent level is FIP. This metric eliminates elements out of a pitcher's control and places more emphasis on those in his control.

A league factor is also added to the total. It is usually around 3.2, so that is what I added in all cases. These FIP totals won't be perfectly exact, but they are close enough for our purposes.

Because such a heavy emphasis is placed on walks in this formula, the resulting correlation between walks allowed and FIP is obviously significant. Let's take a step away from team totals and focus more on the individual pitcher.

There are 412 blue squares in that graph. Why can't you see all of them? Because most of them fall extremely close to that trend line, meaning there is an extreme correlation between walks allowed and FIP. An r-squared of 0.86 is extremely rare in these cases, and I'm convinced we've found our answer.

Yes, walks are an important element for a pitcher. The amount of walks you surrender greatly impacts how you perform as a pitcher, and therefore how your team performs.

(All statistical information used in this article was taken from the Baseball-Databank.)

Despite Gut-Wrenching Loss, Twins Still Ticking in AL Central Race

Andrew Kneeland — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 20:44:34 -0400

Well, that one stings.

His team leading 2-0 in the top of the ninth, the best closer in baseball had dwindled the Chicago White Sox to their final strike. Rookie Gordon Beckham had one swing of the bat to prolong his team's chances in their last game at the Metrodome.

Beckham could never know the full extent of the horrors this stadium had caused the White Sox.

From quirky bloop singles to the springy Metrodome turf, virtually all luck seemed to benefit the Twins.

It's almost fitting that Chicago won their last game in the Metrodome because of the same luck they had cursed for years. Almost.

After taking three straight balls that were well out of the strike-zone, Beckham connected on a fastball nearly down the center of the plate for a home run. The Twins led 2-1 with Paul Konerko stepping up to bat.

It's important to understand here that Nathan had never given up two home runs in a game since 2003, with the San Francisco Giants. In fact, Nathan had only given up four previous home runs in the season.

Coming once again within one strike of ending the game, Nathan hung a slider that ended up over the left field wall. Tied game.

I won't go further into the messy, painful details, but Nathan wound up walking both Jermaine Dye and Carlos Quentin before being removed from the game. It was the first time Nathan had left a game without finishing the inning since 2005.

Matt Guerrier allowed those two inherited runners to score, giving the White Sox, a team who wanted nothing more than to leave Minnesota, a 4-2 lead.

While Nathan is historically a worse pitcher in September, nothing could have prepared Twins fans for the way he imploded today. This loss certainly becomes the most gut-wrenching one of the season, replacing another painful game that seems to have become a distant memory.

While it would be totally fair to blame this game on Nathan (something Twins fans can't normally do), the truth of the matter is that a loss like this is better than a blowout.

The Twins held the White Sox scoreless for eight innings, and were it not for a usually-reliable component, would have won the game.

If the Twins play the way they did today for the rest of the season, they will win the division.

After watching Brian Duensing throw seven innings of shutout baseball, pitching his way out of several tricky situations, Twins fans can take a temporary deep breath. The starting rotation just finished a complete rotation with five acceptable starts from five quality pitchers.

For now, at least, it appears that Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, and Nick Blackburn are capable of lasting six or seven innings and will be crucial for the Twins as they begin this September stretch run. As Patrick Reusse points out, though, four of the seven games the Twins have remaining against the Detroit Tigers will be started by either Jeff Manship or Brian Duensing.

What makes that significant is the fact that Duensing started the season in Triple-A, while Manship began in Double-A. Just 20 percent of the original starting rotation is still intact.

The acquisition of Jon Rauch appears to be a smart one, as he has thrown three scoreless innings for the Twins and has a 2-0 record. Mahay has successfully completed two outs.

While I'd be the first to call "Small Sample Size!,"these two could help anchor what appears to be a semi-reliable bullpen.

While a four-game deficit could be discouraging to look at, it's hardly insurmountable.

It ain't over yet, Twins fans. It ain't over.

Back on Top: A Tale Of Two Scott Bakers

Andrew Kneeland — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 23:24:18 -0400

When diagnosing the many problems of the 2009 Minnesota Twins, a combined team ERA of 4.76 is especially tough to swallow. It's actually quite hard to wrap your head around how bad the majority of the Twins' pitching staff must be, considering they boast three relievers with ERAs under 3.00.

But then there's Scott Baker, an enigma in every sense of the word. His 4.47 ERA is above-average on the team, but still quite hideous compared to other "aces" in the league.

How does a pitcher who has won his last six decisions (with a 3.10 ERA during that stretch) not have more attractive statistics? Truth is, Baker has pitched brilliantly as of late, but his results aren't the kind you see in a box score.

Baker's first nine starts this year were nothing short of disastrous. The stats being thrown around by irked fans and concerned bloggers were not pretty: a 2-6 record, 6.32 ERA, .821 opposing OPS.

But digging deeper than that, one could find that he also sported a career-worst 2.4 HR/9IP. Let that sink in for a moment: every nine innings Baker completed (which would take at least two or three starts for him to accomplish) came bundled together with more than two home runs.

Baker is known as a fly-ball pitcher, but this was ridiculous. Could this be the same hurler who went 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA last year?

Despite looking every bit like the '98 Andy Larkin early in the season. Since the beginning of June through two days ago Baker has lowered his ERA to 3.50 and his HR/9IP rate to a very acceptable 0.72.

What caused the massive shift in success? Here's a graph of the pitch locations Baker threw during his start on April 22, his second of the season (courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net).

Woah. Talk about lack of control. Home plate umpire Tom Hallion was especially generous in his strikezone that day, giving Baker 17 strikes that should have been balls. Even so, Baker retired just fourteen batters during his outing, giving up 10 hits and six runs, all of which came off of the three home runs Baker surrendered.

Now that we've established just how awful Baker was for that first game of the double-header against the Red Sox, let's take a deeper look at his delivery and compare it side-by-side to his recent complete game, two-hit shutout against the Indians. (His complete game is on top.)

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On Aug. 14, Baker's cutter crossed the plate over six inches to the left of where it crossed on April 22. Most important, however, is the fact that the curveball that was nonexistent in April was finding the plate in August and that his slider moved into the strike zone.

An effective slider and curveball are critical pitches in Baker's arsenal simply because they're (usually) extremely tough to hit. At about this time last year, according to data compiled by ubelmann of the WGOM, opposing hitters whiffed at 26 percent of Baker's sliders and 20 percent of his curveballs.

This year, opponents are missing his slider 27.1 pct of the time and his curveball 23.3 pct of the time in 2009, according to both Josh Kalk's pitch f/x tool and Fangraphs.com fellow blogger TwinsFanc1981.

Sounds horrible, right?

Although I don't have access to (who am I kidding? I simply can't find) the game-by-game pitch version of breakdowns listed above, I'm sure both Baker's curve and slider are missing far more bats than they were at the start of the season.

37 percent of Baker's entire pitch count came from the first nine games of the season, and just looking at the box scores, you can tell that he didn't miss many bats during that stint.

Lately, though, Baker has put up excellent numbers and his success has been plainly evident. More important for Baker, however, is the fact that his curveball and slider are finding the plate and missing opposing bats. His unattractive ERA aside, Baker is back on the fast-path to league-wide recognition.

The Twins may really have an ace, after all.

Originally posted on TwinsFix.com

Looking Ahead: The Starting Rotation of the 2010 Minnesota Twins

Andrew Kneeland — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 18:06:38 -0400

When the present looks bleak, the easiest escape route is to look to the future. Without much exaggeration, the 2009 Minnesota Twins starting rotation has been the most disappointing in recent history. Three of the original five starters (Kevin Slowey, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins) are currently on the disabled list and most wouldn't be surprised if they remained shut down for the rest of the year. With the lowest of expectations, one would expect a few pitchers next year to, as my colleague Marty Andrade put it, "catch the competency virus, right?" Here are who I think will occupy the starting rotation of the Twins as they open next year in the new Target Field. Odds are they'll be more impressive than the bunch we've fielded this season.

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Breaking News: Twins Sign First-Round Pick, Kyle Gibson

Andrew Kneeland — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 00:24:04 -0400

According to “a person familiar with the talks,” (via Joe C. of the Star Tribune), the Twins have signed first-round pick Kyle Gibson for $1.8 million, which is slightly above the recommended slot value for the 22nd overall pick ($1.287 million).

Gibson will most likely start next season either with the New Britain Rock Cats or Fort Myers Miracle and is instantly a top-five prospect in the Minnesota organization.

Click here for MLB.com’s scouting report on Gibson. He was originally projected to be a top-10 pick in the 2009 Draft, but an injury to his throwing forearm caused him to plummet to the Twins at 22.

Gibson believed he was worth top-10 talent money-wise, while the Twins refused to go too far above the recommended slot value. As late as yesterday, the two parties appeared to be at least $1 million apart in negotiations, with Gibson wanting $2.5 million and the Twins offering somewhere near $1.5 million.

The final deal, as announced by Joe C., was for $1.8 million.

Gibson projects to be a top-of-the-rotation starter and has the upside of a future Cy Young. He has three-plus pitches he can throw for strikes: a fastball, slider, and changeup.

He is quite tall and skinny, and currently 21 years old.

When the Twins lost last night to the Rangers, it seemed the time was right to pull the plug in the “being competitive” tub, and turn out attention towards being a spoiler.

It wasn’t an exciting night on the basepaths, but the signing of Gibson is some of the best news this franchise has given its fans this year.

Many congratulations go out to both Gibson and the Twins front office for making this deal happen.

Originally posted on TwinsFix.com

Minnesota Vikings 2009-10 Season Preview: Wide Reciever

Andrew Kneeland — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 01:19:28 -0400

The abundance of receivers in Minnesota is a good problem to have, but a problem nonetheless.

There are currently 10 receivers on the Minnesota Vikings roster, which means at least four will find themselves unemployed in the very near future.

Here is a list of the ten receivers vying for the same positions:

Bernard Berrian
Sidney Rice
Percy Harvin
Jaymar Johnson
Bobby Wade
Glenn Holt
Darius Reynaud
Vinny Perretta
Bobby Williams
Nick Moore

Ten players, five or six positions. I’m sure the pressure is feeling just as hot as the late-summer heat in Mankato, but I believe the first four of these players are locks to make the opening day roster. The other six are competing for, at most, two roster spots. Talk about competition.

Absolute, sure-fire locks to be on the field against Cleveland on Sept. 13

You can’t cut a man making multiple millions of dollars unless his name is Nick Punto. Bernard Berrian will be making nearly $14 million this season, and probably earning every penny. His team-leading 964 yards over 48 receptions provided the perfect deep threat for either Frerotte or Jackson last year.

Sidney Rice started just three games last year, but that was because he was incapable of remaining healthy for more than a few hours at a time. He has shown glimpses of brilliance in the past, however, and should enjoy a breakout season as a 23 year old with tons to lose yet the ability (and height) to prove himself.

First-round selection Percy Harvin has done nothing but impress so far this year. Considered by some as the best overall athlete on the team, Harvin has a running back’s open-field instincts to go with his elusiveness and great hands. While he didn’t play in a pro-style offense last year, Harvin appears to be doing just fine with Childress’ plays.

Should get in, will be shocked if he doesn’t

Jaymar Johnson, now that he has received the blessing of Cris Carter, is no longer a secret. With extreme speed, the reason Johnson was drafted in the sixth round was because of his small size and poor hands. Since last year, though, Johnson has apparently put on twenty pounds and Carter claims his hands are fine. I trust No. 80 to make receiver judgments, don’t you?

The favorites and contenders

The remaining six receivers currently on the roster are fighting for, at best, two spots. The favorites on this list are Bobby Wade and Darius Reynaud, both of whom were impressive last year. Wade, although not flashy by any means, was one of the most reliable options either Frerotte or Jackson had last year, while Reynaud made a few great kick returns.

With Harvin sliding into the slot position, Wade seems to be the odd man out this year. Gonzo, of the Daily Norseman, explains better:

The problem that Wade is going to run into this season is attempting to figure out where, exactly, he fits into the roster. His ideal spot is as a slot receiver, but Percy Harvin will almost certainly take a big part of that role away...He could also possibly fit in as a punt returner, but the Vikings appear to be grooming both Harvin and Jaymar Johnson to take on those responsibilities. He’s simply not big enough to line up full-time on the outside, and even if he was, Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice have those spots locked down.

Even though Wade lead the team in receptions last year, there is a possibility he may not find himself on a team come Sept 13. I have a hard time believing that the Vikings will go with Reynaud over Wade, and I am also struggling with the idea of Reynaud being cut, so I’m going to guess that they both make it on the final roster and that Childress rolls with six receivers for the 2009-10 campaign.

The remaining smorgasbord of receivers

Vinny Perretta, Bobby Williams, Nick Moore, and Glenn Holtremain. Holt was a fairly effective kick-returner for the Bengals last year, but was cut by them for a reason: he simply isn’t very good. If both Harvin and Reynaud are on the roster there will be no need for Holt. The rest were long-shots from the start but could possibly find themselves with a practice squad invitation.

In review, here are the six receivers who I think will make the September 13 roster when the Vikings open the season against the Browns, along with the role they will play:

Bernard Berrian—Primary deep threat
Sidney Rice—Second wide-out
Percy Harvin—Slot receiver and part-time kick/punt-returner
Jaymar Johnson—Fourth receiver
Bobby Wade—Primary receiver off the bench
Darius Reynaud—Primary punt/kick returner, seldom-used as a receiver

Orlando Cabrera: A Finger In a Collapsing Dam

Andrew Kneeland — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 17:18:08 -0400

Some problems are too big for one man to solve. Some men are too small to solve a big problem.

For Minnesota Twins fans, it is clear that there is a problem with their baseball team, and it's a big one.

Not the kind of problem a miniature fire extinguisher could put out, mind you, but a flame that requires multiple water hoses.

Orlando Cabrera is a miniature fire extinguisher. Helpful?

In a small sense, but not on a large scale.

Aaron Gleeman put it best in his most recent blog entry:

"Trading for two months of a thoroughly mediocre Cabrera and sticking his measly .322 career on-base percentage in front of Mauer and Morneau is like handing someone trapped in the desert one glass of water and then walking away. Better than nothing? Absolutely. Doing something that you can point to as improving the situation? Sure. But in the grand scheme of things, useless. One glass of water won't get anyone out of a desert and one mediocre shortstop won't get the Twins ... well, anything."

This "glass of water" could morph into monsoon rains, but the likelihood of that happening is dim. After all, just like Gleeman said, Cabrera is nothing more than a mediocre shortstop with a "rapidly deteriorating" glove.

Without the pleas for help from the three biggest names on the Minnesota roster—Mauer, Morneau, Nathan—there is every reason to believe that the Twins would have stood pat at the deadline and played with the cards dealt to them for the final months of the season.

After all, why deviate from the modus operandi established long before Bill Smith took the reigns?

Cabrera is 3-8 with a walk and a strikeout through his first two games as a Twin. Small sample size? Very much so. An impressive start? Hardly.

All Cabrera gives Minnesota offensively is another player with a career sub-.400 on-base-percentage for Gardenhire to shove into the two-hole in the lineup. It takes a special batter to fit perfectly in the second position of a lineup, and Cabrera doesn't fit that mold. That doesn't mean Gardenhire won't make him fit though.

The Twins need much more than a quality second-batter to stay in contention in their division. They need solidification in both their bullpen and starting rotation as well. A timely trade could do the trick, or the Twins could dive biack into their minor-league system.

The class of the rest of the division has gone up, and the Twins have some work to do to catch up.

So, once again, some problems are too big for one man to solve. Without help, that is.

A Change in Dynamics: AL Central Active at Trade Deadline

Andrew Kneeland — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 22:52:35 -0400

A weak division just got a whole lot stronger.

With a combined winning percentage of .470, the AL Central is not regarded as a power-house. The Wild Card will almost certainly come from another division and the national media will largely ignore this combination of Midwestern baseball teams.

But everyone was watching on Friday as the AL Central made the biggest headlines up until the Trade Deadline. Let's review each team that made a move and take a look at their chances as we near the stretch run of the baseball schedule.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers acquired left-handed starting pitcher Jarrod Washburn from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Luke French and 20-year old minor-leaguer Mauricio Robles.

French is a five-year-younger carbon-copy of Washburn. Robles isn't a top prospect, but could develop into a solid middle of the rotation starter in three or four years.

Washburn has had some success against the AL Central in his career, holding opponents to a batting average of .250. He is under contract through the end of this season and could very possibly return to Seattle for the 2010 season.

In the end, the Tigers probably paid too much for a half-year rental. Washburn will make a handful of solid starts this August and September and could have a large impact if Detroit plays baseball this October.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox made an offer for San Diego Padres ace Jake Peavy back in May, but Peavy made use of his full no-trade clause and refused to be traded to Chicago. This time around, though, Peavy embraced the idea of pitching in the Windy City.

Peavy is currently on the disabled list and there are no guarantees that he will even pitch this year. Being under contract through 2012, though, the White Sox probably had the right to trade away quite a bit of minor-league talent.

Kenny Williams is considered by some to be the most aggressive GM in baseball and he rarely holds back when making deals. What the Padres received in compensation, however, could be considered highway robbery.

According to Baseball America, the White Sox gave up their second- and third-best prospects, along with two other decent minor-leaguers.

Minnesota Twins

Normally stoic at the deadline, the Twins traded for shortstop Orlando Cabrera. While this could be seen as a publicity move to appease the three superstars who went on the record to express their desire for the Twins to make a move (Mauer, Morneau, and Nathan), Cabrera could prove to be an upgrade.

While the infield shuffle hasn't been determined yet, there is little doubt that Nick Punto will remain, despite the calls for his removal from all corners of Minnesota.

Cabrera could help solidify a normally-shaky bottom third of the order for the Twins, or he could slide into the two-hole. Wherever he fits into the batting order, though, he is sure to provide an offensive upgrade over Punto, Casilla, and Harris.

This trade isn't enough to put the Twins over the top in the AL Central, but when the PR aspect is considered, general manager Bill Smith made a great move.

Cleveland Indians

Talk about a firesale. The Indians traded away their best hitter in Victor Martinez, their best pitcher in Cliff Lee, and a decent outfielder in Ben Francisco. They have given fans the clear sign that they have given up on the 2009 campaign, despite early projections that had them reaching the World Series.

Twelve games back in the AL Central, though, and it is evident that the Indians cannot overcome the three teams in front of them.

In return for the unloading of Martinez, the Indians received Nick Hagadone, ranked as the third best prospect in the Red Sox organization. Cleveland netted much more in return for Lee, ripping the Phillies' minor-leagues to shreds.

Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald, and Jason Knapp will all report to a team in the Cleveland organization. These prospects are ranked as No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, and No. 10, by Baseball America, respectfully. Quite the load.

While the Indians threw in the white flag on 2009, they will return to the top of the AL Central very soon.

The most active division in baseball this Trade Deadline, the AL Central is gearing up for an incredibly competitive stretch run. Only time can tell how these trades will work out and who will end up on top.

Sifting Through the Minnesota Twins Trade Rumors

Andrew Kneeland — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 01:08:48 -0400

The Twins have never been considered an active team at the trade deadline, and this year could be no different.

Although the chances of Minnesota actually trading for a player with the ability to transform the team into a serious title-contender is rare, that doesn't mean they aren't dipping their toes in the water.

With names and potential trade partners being flung about it can be easy for fans to get confused. Because of the low chances of the Twins actually making any moves I won't detail every potential acquisition, but knowing who the Twins have the most interest in can provide deep insights into the organization and its philosophy.

First off, it appears that the Twins have contacted Toronto regarding their ace, Roy Halladay.

If the rumors that indicate the Blue Jays had turned down a hefty offer from the Phillies is true, there is no chance that the Twins would have enough to even be considered by Toronto. Besides, it doesn't appear that Halladay even wants to pitch in Minnesota.

The biggest-name player the Twins actually have a shot at is Freddy Sanchez of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

As a veteran second baseman with a consistent bat, Sanchez would do wonders both offensively and defensively for the Twins. Sanchez could step right in to the second-slot in the batting order and allow Gardenhire to put Casilla or Punto where they belong: on the bench.

San Francisco seems to have the advantage in the Sanchez-sweepstakes, though, and the Twins may have to settle for someone like Orlando Cabrera.

Cabrera, a shortstop, wouldn't be the best fit in Minnesota. He is relatively old and the only reason his stock is so high is because of a recent hot month at the plate. He probably wouldn't be much of an upgrade over Brendan Harris, either offensively or defensively.

I wouldn't be at all opposed to trading for Cabrera, providing one of two things takes place: 1) Cabrera takes at-bats away from Punto rather than Harris, or 2) reliever Michael Wuertz is included in the package.

Wuertz is a 30-year old, right-handed reliever who has been pitching great this year. He would come with a high pricetag, though, and the Twins may not be willing to mortgage so much of their future.

There was a rumor this weekend that the Athletics had offered to trade Cabrera to the Twins straight-up for Danny Valencia, the third-baseman of the future for Minnesota and by all accounts a future All-Star. As President Obama would say, "I don't know all the facts, but [Oakland] acted stupidly."

Yesterday, it was reported that the Twins had showed interest in Mariner's reliever Sean White. A young right-handed hurler from the Seattle bullpen, White boasts an impressive ERA so far this year, and has only given up two home runs, but walks nearly as many batters as he strikes out.

Besides Halladay, the Blue Jays could offer quite a few veteran relievers for trade. While the future of Halladay could dictate whether Toronto wants to rebuild or not, a reliever like Scott Downs or Jason Frasor could help solidify a shaky Minnesota bullpen.

Veteran infielder Marco Scutaro could also help tremendously. Basically an older version of Nick Punto in terms of defensive ability and versatility, Scutaro blows Punto out of the water when comparing offensive prowess.

Although it isn't fun to talk about, the Twins could also consider unloading some of their veteran/valuable players and rebuilding for 2011 or 2012. Michael Cuddyer, Joe Crede, Nick Punto, Delmon Young, Francisco Liriano, and even Joe Nathan could bring in a lot of young talent.

Worse than selling and starting a long rebuilding process, in my opinion, would be for the Twins to do absolutely nothing before the July 31 trade deadline. They have sat on their hands for many years and have done their very best to convince fans that they either don't have the money, willpower, or dedication to compete in their division.

It's time for them to change that perception.

While a timely trade or acquisition may only be enough to push them over the hump in their division, a few key moves strung together could prove to be the difference between a World Series run and another October home on the couch.

Danny Valencia: How Soon Can The Future Be Ready?

Andrew Kneeland — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 21:31:06 -0400

Danny Valencia has long been hailed as the third baseman of the future for the Minnesota Twins. Not since Corey Koskie have fans been able to watch a consistent jersey take grounders from the hot corner.

After the 2004 season, the Twins were forced to plug the hole at third base. In 2005, it was Michael Cuddyer. In 2006 and 2007, it was Nick Punto. Last year, Brian Buscher and Mike Lamb shared the duties.

During most of that time, though, the Twins were patiently waiting for their future to develop.

Valencia was drafted in the 19th round of the 2006 MLB Draft, and has been regarded as the future ever since. After starting his minor-league career with the Elizabethton Twins, Valencia has moved up at least one level each season.

This speedy movement between minor league levels is certainly rare within the Twins' organization, but if anyone deserved to be rushed, it was Valencia.

The sluggish pace at which some top prospects move through the minors is infuriating to fans, as they want to see the player in the big-leagues as soon as possible. Who can blame them? In reality, though, the lethargic approach the Twins have toward their highly-prized prospects is a blessing in disguise.

Valencia's case is different; every league and team he has been placed with hasn't brought a noticeable dip in his offensive or defensive output. Though the challenges get tougher, Valencia has remained on an even keel throughout his career.

In his four seasons of professional baseball, Valencia has posted an average less than .300 exactly once: when he hit .297 at Beloit and Fort Myers, hardly an unforgivable offense.

Valencia somehow manages to blast around a dozen home runs a year while getting on base at an impressive clip, proving that he's ready for major-league opponents.

Promoted to Triple-A for the first time just one short month ago, some argue that he simply hasn't had enough at-bats to warrant a promotion to the Bigs. With Joe Crede potentially heading to the disabled list, though, Valencia could be thrust into a mid-summer pennant race, ready or not.

Through 26 games, Valencia is hitting .370/.379/.620 with the Rochester Red Wings, while also tallying five home runs and 22 RBI. The slash line reeks of small sample size, but his success is not something that can be easily ignored.

I'm not going to tell you that Valencia would hit with the same effectiveness in the Majors that he is in Rochester. I can't even tell you that he'd get on base more than Crede, the king of wasted at-bats.

One thing that is known is that Valencia would almost certainly be better both offensively and defensively than a platoon of Buscher and Punto at the hot corner.

Knowing the Twins, though, they'd prefer the latter over Valencia any day of the week.

8 Fool-Proof Steps To a Minnesota Twins World Series Title This Year

Andrew Kneeland — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 22:39:53 -0400

Like federal agents in a shoot-em-up thriller, the "likeability" of general managers typically doesn't last long in the baseball universe. Fans want things their way, and the front office of their favorite team seems to never get it right. It's funny, considering how both parties are aiming for the same goal: a World Series title. Why, then, do journalists even bother making suggestions considering how they're almost always ignored? Simple: they think they're important. And I'm no different. The following is a simple, step-by-step guide for Minnesota Twins' general manager Bill Smith to follow that will positively end with a World Series title. If done right.

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