Bleacher Report - Articles by Benjamin Clark

Week Five NFL Power Rankings and a Look Ahead

Benjamin Clark — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 09:21:02 -0400

Another week and another set of rankings. Please remember that these rankings are based on a complex formula that takes into account a number of factors related to on-field performance and strength of opponents.

1 (previously ranked No. 1). New York Giants (4-0)

2 (2). Tennessee Titans (5-0)

3 (3). Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1)

4 (6). Dallas Cowboys (4-1)

5 (7). Washington Redskins (4-1)

6 (4). Tampa Bay Bucs (3-2)

7 (13). Carolina Panthers (4-1)

8 (8). Miami Dolphins (2-2)

9 (5). Buffalo Bills (4-1)

10 (17). Arizona Cardinals (3-2)

11 (9). San Diego Chargers (2-3)

12 (20). Chicago Bears (3-2)

13 (18). New England Patriots (3-1)

14 (10). Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)

15 (14). Green Bay Packers (2-3)

16 (12). New Orleans Saints (2-3)

17 (11). Seattle Seahawks (1-3)

18 (15). Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)

19 (21). Indianapolis Colts (2-2)

20 (19). Atlanta Falcons (3-2)

21 (16). San Francisco 49ers (2-3)

22 (22). Denver Broncos (4-1)

23 (25). Minnesota Vikings (2-3)

24 (24). New York Jets (2-2)

25 (23). Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

26 (27). Oakland Raiders (1-3)

27 (28). Houston Texans (0-4)

28 (26). Detroit Lions (0-4)

29 (29). Cleveland Browns (1-3)

30 (31). St. Louis Rams (0-4)

31 (30). Kansas City Chiefs (1-4)

32 (32). Cincinnati Bengals (0-5)

And the predictions for this week (winners in bold):

No. 32 Cincinnati at No. 24 New York Jets

No. 8 Miami at No. 27 Houston

No. 12 Chicago at No. 20 Atlanta

No. 28 Detroit at No. 23 Minnesota

No. 7 Carolina at No. 6 Tampa Bay

No. 25 Baltimore at No. 19 Indianapolis

No. 26 Oakland at No. 16 New Orleans

No. 30 St. Louis at No. 5 Washington

No. 18 Jacksonville at No. 22 Denver

No. 15 Green Bay at No. 17 Seattle

No. 4 Dallas at No. 10 Arizona

No. 14 Philadelphia at No. 21 San Francisco

No. 13 New England at No. 11 San Diego

No. 1 New York Giants at No. 29 Cleveland

Bye week teams: Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tennessee

Last week: 8-6, Overall: 49-25

Week Four NFL Power Rankings and a Look Ahead to Next Week

Benjamin Clark — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 09:06:01 -0400

Here are the results of this week’s run through my power ranking formula. Please remember that this is based on a complex formula that takes into account a number of factors related to on-field performance and strength of opponents.

1. New York Giants (previously ranked No.1) 3-0

2. Tennessee Titans (2) 4-0

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (4) 3-1

4. Tampa Bay Bucs (5) 3-1

5. Buffalo Bills (6) 4-0

6. Dallas Cowboys (3) 3-1

7. Washington Redskins (10) 3-1

8. Miami Dolphins (9) 1-2

9. San Diego Chargers (8) 2-2

10. Philadelphia Eagles (7) 2-2

11. Seattle Seahawks (13) 1-2

12. New Orleans Saints (18) 2-2

13. Carolina Panthers (17) 3-1

14. Green Bay Packers (12) 2-2

15. Jacksonville Jaguars (16) 2-2

16. San Francisco 49ers (11) 2-2

17. Arizona Cardinals (14) 2-2

18. New England Patriots (20) 2-1

19. Atlanta Falcons (15) 2-2

20. Chicago Bears (19) 2-2

21. Indianapolis Colts (22) 1-2

22. Denver Broncos (21) 3-1

23. Baltimore Ravens (24) 2-1

24. New York Jets (25) 2-2

25. Minnesota Vikings (23) 1-3

26. Detroit Lions (27) 0-3

27. Oakland Raiders (26) 1-3

28. Houston Texans (28) 0-3

29. Cleveland Browns (29) 1-3

30. Kansas City Chiefs (30) 1-3

31. St. Louis Rams (31) 0-4

32. Cincinnati Bengals (32) 0-4

And the predictions from the formula for the games this week (picks in bold):

No.2 Tennessee at No.23 Baltimore

No.19 Atlanta at No.14 Green Bay

No.30 Kansas City at No.13 Carolina

No.9 San Diego at No.8 Miami

No.7 Washington at No.10 Philadelphia

No.11 Seattle at No.1 New York Giants

No.21 Indianapolis at No.28 Houston

No.20 Chicago at No.26 Detroit

No.4 Tampa Bay at No.22 Denver

No.5 Buffalo at No.17 Arizona

No.32 Cincinnati at No.6 Dallas

No.18 New England at No.16 San Francisco

No.3 Pittsburgh at No.15 Jacksonville

No.25 Minnesota at No.12 New Orleans

Bye teams: Cleveland, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis

Last week: 7-6, Overall 41-19

Comparing Aaron Rodgers to Brett Favre and Bart Starr After Week Two

Benjamin Clark — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 09:04:54 -0400

It's now two games into the season, and I'm going to continue my comparison of Brett Favre, Bart Starr, and Aaron Rodgers.

This week, I looked into interceptions. Favre threw his first interception as a Jet this week and number 289 of his career. Aaron Rodgers hasn't thrown one yet this season, and in fact, he hasn't thrown one since his rookie year, despite passing for more than 10 attempts against Dallas in 2007 and New England in 2006.

Brett Favre has averaged 17 interceptions per season in his career—if you take out this short season and his rookie season—that goes up to 19.27 per year. He has ranged from 13-29 interceptions, but he has only thrown less than 15 just three times in his career.

Even if Rodgers were to throw one interception in every game the rest of the year, he would still only throw 14. By comparison, Bart Starr averaged 9.2 per year.

Furthermore, Aaron Rodgers has now gone 103-straight pass attempts without an interception. Favre has only surpassed that twice in his entire career. In 2007, he went 117 attempts before tossing one to the other team during Weeks 10-12, and in 1995, he went 125 attempts during Weeks 16-17 and the wild card and divisional playoff games.

A lot of people are looking at previous quarterbacks who followed Hall of Famers. It is clear that the player who follows a legend rarely ends up having a good career.

Steve Young is the exception to that rule, and it should be noted that he too only surpassed Rodgers' current streak twice in his career: In 1996, he went 108-straight during Weeks Nine-14 and in 1993, he went 150 straight during Weeks Seven-12.

Say what you will about Rodgers—it is only two games into his career. But the fact of the matter is, so far, he has proven to be a much better game manager than Favre ever has been.

He is also playing extremely well. Here's the weekly comparison of the three great Packer QBs in their first season as the starter (pro-rated to 16 games):

	Attempts	Completions	Percentage	Yards	TDs	INT	Rush	Yards	TDs
Bart Starr	179	93	52.0	1296	8	9	21	111	0
Brett Favre	502	322	64.1	3442	19	14	50	211	1
Aaron Rodgers	480	336	70.0	4048	32	0	96	480	8

NFL Power Rankings' Preseason Version: Based on On-Field Performance

Benjamin Clark — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 08:03:14 -0400

Every week, I will use a formula I have developed to rank all 32 NFL teams. The formula takes into account cumulative performance in the categories of: Offensive Yards Gained, Defensive Yards Allowed, Turnover Differential, Points Scored, and Points Allowed.

Then it also takes into account whether the team was playing at home or away and the strength of the opponent.

This week, I have used some information gained from the preseason to rank the teams (performance of the starters is weighted higher than the backups). Here are the results.

Come back after Week One of the regular season for the next edition.

1. Tampa Bay Bucs
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. San Diego Chargers
5. New York Giants
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
7. Tennessee Titans
8. Indianapolis Colts
9. Dallas Cowboys
10. Green Bay Packers
11. New England Patriots
12. Washington Redskins
13. Detroit Lions
14. Carolina Panthers
15. Miami Dolphins
16. San Francisco 49ers
17. New Orleans Saints
18. Philadelphia Eagles
19. Buffalo Bills
20. Arizona Cardinals
21. Atlanta Falcons
22. Houston Texans
23. St. Louis Rams
24. New York Jets
25. Denver Broncos
26. Minnesota Vikings
27. Oakland Raiders
28. Cleveland Browns
29. Chicago Bears
30. Kansas City Chiefs
31. Baltimore Ravens
32. Cincinnati Bengals

Please note that due to the way the formula works, many of the teams that were playoff teams last year were ranked very low through the formula (mostly due to them not playing or having their star players).

As a result, I chose to set it up so the worst a 2007 playoff team could be ranked in this particular ranking would be No. 12. I did this to avoid complications in the formula's system during the first few weeks of the regular season.