Bleacher Report - Articles by Jared Crozier

NHL Eastern Conference Preview

Jared Crozier — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 12:44:30 -0400

With the season approaching more quickly than an Alexander Ovechkin wrist shot, there are lots of people making predictions on a variety of things.

Here are my Eastern Conference predictions, based on what I have seen over the offseason:

1. Philadelphia Flyers

With a healthy Simon Gagne, a newly-appointed captain in Mike Richards, and a group of young players developing together, this club made some noise in the playoffs last year and should continue that momentum this season. Martin Biron proved down the stretch that he is a starting goalie, and will only gain more confidence in '08-09.

The defense is reliable, with Timonen and Jones providing the offense and Coburn and an emerging Ryan Parent being shut-down guys. I expect breakout seasons from Jeff Carter and Joffrey Lupul, and Claude Giroux should be a Calder trophy finalist.

Daniel Briere will be even more dynamic with a full season in Philly under his belt and a running mate in Gagne. Mike Knuble will be his reliable self. Guys like Hartnell, Upshall, and Downie will make this team very tough to play against.

2. Washington Capitals

Whatever coach Bruce Boudreau is selling, it is working. Ovechkin and the other Russians in the US Capital ended the season on a tear, and are the class team in the Southeast division. Hopefully, for their sake, Jose Theodore has indeed returned at least close to his Montreal form, and can withstand the load of 60-65 games between the pipes.

A returning captain in Chris Clark will add much needed grit, and there should be no shortage of offense from No. 8, second-year player Nicklas Backstrom, and a rejuvenated Sergei Fedorov.

3. Montreal Canadiens

Although I am not completely buying into the Carey Price mania, he has won at every level and had a good rookie campaign. Now he has to prove he can be "the Man" over 82 games at the highest level. There is no debating the skill and the grit, but my question is—can they mesh?

Kovalev is acknowledged as one of the games top talents, and he has a history of on-again, off-again seasons. Is this a down season for Kovy? Koivu is still the leader, but he isn't a top-line player any more.

This club actually reminds me of the Senators of the pre-lockout days—minus the top-flight goaltender—and this might be another year of the young guys learning how the game is played.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins

The Stanley Cup finalist last season lost a lot of key players that led them to that spot. However, with two of the top five players in the game, you can't bet against them.

Replacing Hossa with Satan on Crosby's wing is a slight step down, although Satan's game might mesh better with the Kid's. Moving Jordan Staal to a more offensive role on a line with Malkin gives the Pens two potent lines.

The club's depth comes into question after the Hossa deal, especially on the blue line. Being without their top two blueliners (Gonchar and Whitney) until perhaps the New Year takes them out of the running for the Atlantic Division, in my opinion.

However, the roles that Kristopher Letang and Alex Goligoski will be thrust into will only serve to speed up their development as offensive contributors. Marc-Andre Fleury showed flashes of what made the Pens take him first overall, and can be counted on for 35 wins.

5. Ottawa Senators

After a tumultuous season that ended in a first-round sweep at the hands of the Penguins, Brian Murray overhauled the Senators, shipping off any negative influences and dead weight. Whether he brought enough in to replace the not so dearly departed, only time will tell—but the core is still intact and one of the top two lines in the league will be re-united.

Alfredsson is the undisputed leader and they will go where he takes them. Heatley and Spezza must live up to their newfound financial status and play complete games. Fisher, Vermette, Kelly, and Neil have some things to prove this season after disappointing last year. The blue line is solid defensively, with Phillips and Volchenkov capable of being the top shutdown duo in the league, but will not provide much offense this year.

Will Martin Gerber be the No. 1 he was supposed to be when they signed him, or will he fade away in his contract year? question. My guess is that he will be fine and will have a good season supported by newcomer Alex Auld, instead of being back-stabbed by Ray Emery. (And you thought I could get through this without mentioning his name!)

6. New York Rangers

A top-flight goaltender in Lundqvist but the departure of a pair of Czechs to the Russian league leaves a hole, and the attempts to repair it might have fallen short. The upside is that Gomez and Drury can take over this team, and play it their way.

Nigel Dawes will have a breakout season with fellow sophomore Brandon Dubunsky. They will also miss the agitation of Sean Avery—although Martin Brodeur is thanking his lucky Stars—and apparently the leadership of Brendan Shanahan.

The blue line is solid, and Wade Redden will be expected to return to his Team Canada-calibre form, not continue his course of the past two seasons.

7. Carolina Hurricanes

Another offseason is in the books, and this team is better than the one that played last year. If Rod Brind'Amour is healthy to start the season, I think he can singlehandedly will this club to the playoffs. Eric Staal, Ray Whitney, and a midseason return of Justin Williams will provide the offense, and the defense is adequate and has scoring potential.

The most intriguing story is that of Sergei Samsonov, who was left on the scrap heap but had a resurgence in Raleigh, averaging almost a point a game with the 'Canes over the final third of the season. Here's hoping that he can continue that production over a full season.

In goal, Cam Ward will be pushed by Michael Leighton, and the duo make a solid unit that can win some games, but might not be the most consistent in the conference.

8. Buffalo Sabres

This team is small, speedy, and can play a system. The players are so similar that they are almost "plug and play." They can play whatever roles are assigned to them and play it well.

Pominville and Roy are the leaders, and will be counted upon heavily. Maxim Afinogenov has Pavel Bure speed, but Valeri Bure hands. He is an exciting player who seems to lack the finish you would expect from a player of his flash.

Ryan Miller is a goalie who is capable of carrying a club on his back—and he has to, because his backup is the enigmatic Patrick Lalime.

The defensivee corps seems like it is formed in the same "cookie cutter" mold as the forwards. There isn't a standout, but Craig Rivet adds needed grit to the back end.

9. New Jersey Devils

I used to think that the presence of Martin Brodeur alone was enough to make the playoffs, and it used to be. However, Martin isn't getting any younger, and he doesn't have Stevens, Niedermayer, Rafalski, or Daneyko in front of him any more.

The defense is led by Paul Martin and Colin White—not exactly hearkening to the glory days.

Up front, Zach Parise is only getting better, and Brian Gionta has to be better than he was last year. I like the addition of Brian Rolston, but the Bobby Holik signing puzzles me greatly. They should be getting younger and faster, not older and slower.

Brent Sutter will get the most out of this club and they will be in the running for a playoff spot—but in the ever-competitive East, they might not find a seat when the music stops.

10. Tampa Bay Lightning

Is there a free agent out there that the the Lightning hasn't signed yet? I am still waiting for my contract offer.

Led by Vinnie Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis, the Bolts will score goals. The big addition of top pick Steven Stamkos will make the club even more dynamic and deeper offensively, but the young defense might be behind on the learning curve.

Matt Carle must shake the doldrums that came with his big contract in San Jose, and Meszaros must not become the next Matt Carle.

Goaltending may become an issue, with the unproven Mike Smith and the end of the road Olaf Kolzig perhaps being the weakest duo in the conference.

They will be exciting this year, but whether that translates into a lot of wins remains to be seen. They will likely have to wait until next season to return to the playoffs.

11. Boston Bruins

I can't quite figure this team out. Tim Thomas isn't really a number-one goalie, and Manny Fernandez has never shown that he can play as the undisputed No. 1, despite his wish to do so.

Chara is a standout Norris Trophy candidate, but beyond that there isn't much to write home about on the blue line. Up front, there is some sizzle in the form of Marc Savard, and if he can shake last season's incident with the boards, Patrice Bergeron.

It is time for Phil Kessel to step up, as he showed some signs of doing in the playoffs once he was finally inserted into the lineup after being a healthy scratch.

All in all, this club could be a top-five team or a bottom-five team, but will likely be somewhere in the middle. They will fight to the end for a playoff spot, but I can't see them being in the top eight at the end of the day.

12. Florida Panthers

Maybe it was Ollie Jokinen's fault they never made the playoffs? The Panthers traded their captain—who has never been to the playoffs—to Phoenix, in exchange for a couple of solid defensemen in Keith Ballard and Nick Boynton.

The blue line is big, mobile, and should be effective. Offensively, the youngsters will be counted on to contribute more this season, especially Stephen Weiss, and Nathan Horton. The duo will likely pair together on the top line, and the pressure will be on them to perform—along with veteran FA Cory Stillman, who will provide leadership and his usual point per game.

Richard Zednik will attempt to return after a horrific injury that almost cost him his life, let alone his career. It will be interesting to see if he can play the same game he did before the incident.

13. Toronto Maple Leafs

Without Mats Sundin, the Leafs don't have a proven scorer, and not much potential this season. Nik Antropov figures to shoulder much of the offensive load, but he can run hot and cold.

Youth will be served, and lots of experience will be gained by young players in the system. They will be very solid defensively, and backstopped in net by Vesa Toskala, who will steal some games.

The defensive corps is actually one of the more dependable in the conference, but can you really justify the salary given to Jeff Finger? If Coliacovo can stay healthy (and that is a big IF), they will not have issues here. The big problem will be scoring goals, and there are a lot of 1-0, 2-1 shootout games in the Leafs' near future.

14. New York Islanders

This is a team in transition. Their leading scorer didn't even crack the 50-point mark, and that, combined with a difference in philosophies with the GM, cost coach Ted Nolan his job.

They have built from the net out, as DiPietro is an Islander for life it seems. The blueline is a nondescript group without any standouts, although it will be interesting to see what FA acquisition Mark Streit does. Was the Swiss Swingman a product of Montreal's PP success, or a reason for it? The Isles have bet a lot of money that it was the latter.

A duo of freshmen in Kyle Okposo and Sean Bergenheim are the future of the club, and they will be pushed off the plank into the deep end this year as the Islanders are not a deep organization.

15. Atlanta Thrashers

Well, they do have Ilya Kovalchuk.

Rookie head coach John Anderson has his work cut out for him, as this group is largely unproven and there isn't an abundance of talent. Kovalchuk is a supreme talent, but he doesn't have the supporting cast. Jason Williams is a good player, but should not be a top-line centre on any club.

The defense is lacking in star power, and might be forced to rush third-overall pick Zach Bogosian into the lineup before he is really ready. Kari Lehtonen is a talented goalie, but spends more time in the IR than between the pipes.

They could be the top contender for the No. 1 overall selection come June. On the bright side, did I mention they have Ilya Kovalchuk?

That sums up how I see the East Shaking down this season, but anything can happen—and in a Conference this tight, it probably will. One key injury can sink a team's chances, and one unexpected performance by an unsung player can boost a club into the hunt.

What do YOU think?

Five Things That Would Make the NHL Better

Jared Crozier — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 08:28:52 -0400

Another site I follow on a regular basis recently ran a month-long series of blogs, written by a different hockey journalist each day, the topic being "Five Ways I would improve the NHL."

Since nobody asked me to do it, I will tell you here. Here are my five ways to improve the NHL:

1. Value each game the same in the Standings

Personally I am a fan of the shootout, and the extra point for an overtime or shootout win. However, having some three-point games and some two-point games doesn't make sense to me. Each game should be worth the same amount in the standings.

If I were in charge of the league, I would give three points for a regulation win, two points for an overtime or shootout win, and one point for an OT/SO loss.

Before you traditionalists out there scream about the lack of respect for records and the top teams of the past, let me tell you that I fully recognize that. As the saying goes, however, that horse is already out of the barn, and was let out the day the three-point game was introduced.

Having a .500 record used to be the benchmark for having a good season, but since the third point for an overtime and/or shootout loss was introduced that is no longer the case. For instance, only six of 30 teams were below the .500 mark last season, compared with 12 teams in 1998-99—the last time all NHL games were worth the same.

Parity is bountiful in the NHL. hink of how much more exciting games will be down the stretch if there was a chance to gain three points on a rival.

2. Fix the Schedule

The NHL should go to an 80-game schedule that breaks down as follows:

Five games against four divisional opponents (20 games)

Three games against 10 in-conference opponents (30 games)

Two games against the 15 out-of-conference opponents (30 games)

This format makes sense in a multitude of ways.

First, in my opinion, every team should play in every arena each season. Supporters in Los Angeles, Edmonton, Detroit and the other Western cities deserve to be able to see Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Stamkos every season—not once or twice every three years.

Second, because the playoffs are conference-based, the teams should be playing more common opponents, rather than eight divisional games, where the strength of a team's division is a contributing factor to their conference placing.

Third, divisional rivalries are, for many teams, the best-selling and most in-demand games. Those rivalries are maintained without affecting the balance of competition, and in fact might be even accentuated because there are fewer of them on the schedule. I for one would sacrifice two or three Toronto-Ottawa games in favor of more chances to see Iginla, Nash, and Kopitar.

3. Its time to face it—hockey just might not work in some markets

There are some markets that can support teams that they don't have. There are some markets that can't support the teams they do have. It is time to fill the slots that would welcome a club and viably maintain it, regardless of territory.

If you can have three NHL clubs in the New York City area, certainly Southern Ontario could support a second club. Winnipeg, despite some arena issues, should be given another chance.

After all, what good is a 20,000-seat arena in a sunshine state if they can only get 5,000 paying customers? Is it not better to sell out a 16,000-seat arena every game? This is not to mention other potential US cities that are chomping at the bit to be a part of the NHL.

4. The clubs need to do more sharing

The salary cap was one thing, but until the owners share more revenues, the gaps between the haves and the have-nots will keep increasing, and the lower-revenue teams will have more financial pressure to get to the salary floor.

The high-revenue teams are reaping the benefits of the salary cap and pocketing the profits, while the lower revenue teams are struggling to be able to meet the strains of an ever-increasing salary floor.

The players get a percentage of all league revenues, not a percentage of a club's revenues. There is some revenue sharing, but until the league and its member clubs divide all revenues more equally, there will always be an uneven playing field.

5. Change two rules that don't make sense

First of all, touch icing is a factor in at least one major injury every year. From Pat Peake to Kurtis Foster, there are stories all over the league of players that have been injured in the mosty-ineffective race to beat out an icing.

The rule could be tweaked in many ways to avoid this race. Automatic icing, with the discretion of the linesman to waive it off in certain situations—i.e. an obvious pass that was missed by its intended target, or a puck that could have been played by a defender—could be implemented.

The league has too many star players to risk having one of them injured in a play that only results in the icing being waved off once a game, at the most.

Second, restricting the areas where the goaltenders can play the puck was an ineffective rule, and only serves to make for confusion with extraneous markings on the ice and more subjective decisions for referees to have to make.

It is time to go back to where a goalie can play the puck wherever they wish, because it adds excitement to the game. The goalies who are good with the puck can start a quick breakout for a rush the other way, while the ones who struggle can create scoring chances against them with turnovers and bungles.

These are five ways that the NHL can be improved, both on and off the ice. Not all of them are easy fixes by any means, but the more of them that can be implemented the better off the league as a whole will be.

Without Alfredsson, Do the Senators Stand a Chance Against Crosby and Co.?

Jared Crozier — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 02:03:34 -0400

What a difference a year makes.

Actually, to be more specific, what a difference five months make.

Going into the 2007-'08 regular season, the Senators were riding high, fresh off a Stanley Cup final appearance and primed and ready to prove that playoff hangover was just a myth. And after 17 games and a 15-2 start, the best ever by any team, all was well in Hockey Country.

Then, the walls started falling down.

Goaltenders were inconsistent both in the net and off the ice. The losses started piling up and the players had no answer. The coach got fired, and a team that was (however unfairly) compared to the 1975-'76 Montreal Canadiens juggernaut needed a Carolina loss in their last game to even get back into the playoffs.

Losing six of your last eight games, and thanks to Toronto's Mark Bell, also losing two of your top five forwards for an indeterminate time, definitely is not the way you want to enter the post-season.

That being said, the slate is clean, and everyone is starting on even ground. The question is—do the Senators have enough to defeat the upstart Penguins?

Those looking for positives can look at the 3-0-1 record they posted against the Penguins this season and the 4-1 playoff trouncing they subjected Sid the Kid and his team to one year ago.

It can be done, but three vital things must happen, and they are my Senators' Keys to Victory:

1. Play on the edge, not over it: The Senators must finish all checks, especially on the fore check against the suspect Pittsburgh defensive corps. Forcing turnovers in the Pittsburgh zone and capitalizing on them is paramount, and they must score one "ugly" goal per game. They must be aggressive with the skilled Penguin forwards but cannot cross the line and take penalties, or they will get eaten alive by the Pittsburgh power-play.

2. Score the first goal: Without Alfredsson and Fisher, the offensive firepower will not be there to mount a comeback. The Senators need a quick start, which might put some doubt in the players' minds as to the ability of Marc-Andre Fleury to excel when the heat is turned up.

3. Martin Gerber must make key saves: He doesn't need to shut out the Penguins, and let's face it, they are going to score goals. But the saves at the key times in the games (late in periods, down by one goal) could be the boost the Sens and give them the confidence to play at the level they need to.

Can the Senators win the series? Of course they can. The core of the team is still intact from last year, and if they can hold out and get any or all of Alfredsson, Fisher, or Kelly back for game three or four, anything can happen.

Spezza and Heatley are still dynamic and could carry a team over the course of a series. Cory Stillman is a savvy veteran who has a pair of Cup rings and the respect of the players. He'll have a voice in the room and is a key to the power play.

Will the Senators win the series? Even the most die-hard Senators fan has to be disillusioned with performance of the club in the last 50 games. They have not shown the form lately that suggests they can win a game, let alone a series. There are too many "what-ifs" and too many things that must fall into place for the Senators to win the series.

The list above are all keys to victory, but none have been demonstrated abilities on a consistent basis for an inconsistent club.

PENGUINS IN FIVE

Ottawa Senators: Now's the Time to Step Up

Jared Crozier — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 06:32:34 -0500

With Dany Heatley on the shelf for six weeks and Daniel Alfredsson day-to-day nursing a hip flexor injury, it is time for the remaining Ottawa Senators to show guts and character and grit out a few wins.

The first two games without the duo were very uninspiring. The Senators scored only one goal while allowing in eight.

It’s not like they were playing the Red Wings or Penguins, where sub-par performances and losses might be excused. Ottawa were shutout by Tampa (2-0) and gave up six goals on 21 shots in a loss to Philadelphia.

With the club's two top snipers out, they need a better all around offensive effort from the likes of Antoine Vermette, Mike Fisher, Patrick Eaves, and Jason Spezza.

The defensive zone coverage has been dismal at best, and after Phillips and Volchenkov there is no certainty about the team's performance from the blue line. Goaltending has also been shaky, especially for Gerber in his two periods against the Flyers.

The Senators are a talented group overall, but one that seems rudderless without its captain. Their play as a unit has been lacklustre and without urgency.

They are now in the midst of a three game road trip leading into the All-Star break, one that is pivotal and could be a turning point in the season. If they win the two games in Florida, they go into the All-Star break with an eight or 10 point lead in the conference. Ottawa then can enjoy the time off and come back refreshed and ready for the stretch run.

But, lose both games and the lead could conceivably be down to four or six points, causing panic among fans in Ottawa.

With the looming trade deadline on Feb. 23, there are already rumors that a couple of deals were in the works last week. There’s speculation that a goaltender and a defenseman might be on their way out in exchange for scoring help in the form of a top-six forward.

GM Bryan Murray has stated that he would be willing to deal a roster player or players if it helps his team, and rightfully so.

The club has been carried on the shoulders of Heatley, Spezza, and, most importantly, Alfredsson. If the other 17 guys aren't going to get the job done as a unit, it might be necessary to break them up and bring in some fresh faces who can.

But that is a worst-case scenario and it can all be avoided with a couple of quality wins over supposedly inferior competition in the Panthers and Lightning.

Despite First-Place Position, Senators Still Have Issues to Address

Jared Crozier — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 06:17:53 -0500

The Ottawa Senators' victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning Saturday night concluded a wild and wacky first half of the season that can only be described by two words: roller coaster.

The ups and downs weren't so much in terms of standings, as they are sitting right now where they have been for most of the season—first in the Eastern Conference.

However, for a team that is nine points ahead of its nearest rival in the East, the first three months have been anything but boring.

Controversy revolving around Ray Emery and the goaltending situation, a lack of secondary scoring, and the ongoing Wade Redden should-he-stay-or-should-he-go? debate all made for interesting water cooler and sports radio fodder. Many people have offered opinions with regard to what GM Bryan Murray must do, if anything, to secure another lengthy playoff run. In my opinion, three key areas must be addressed by the management and the players themselves.

First of all, a clear cut number one goalie must emerge very soon.

A two-goaltender system might work in the regular season, but a clear number one must be determined leading into the playoffs.

Martin Gerber has yet to prove he can handle the pressure of a big game, and is prone to meltdowns, as evidenced by the recent home-and-home series with the lowly Capitals. Yes, he had a fantastic start, but I am still not sold on his confidence and consistency.

Ray Emery, in my opinion, has regressed in his maturity, and after the run he had last season, I expected more from him. His actions on and off the ice show that he still has some growing up to do. IF he can return to the form he showed last spring, the Senators will be fine. Personality quirks can be overlooked if you are performing. But to date Ray has not grasped the job as expected, and he has not exhibited the work ethic required to regain his status. He has become a sideshow and a distraction to the team.

Second, determine who is going to play alongside Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley.

I have long been of the opinion that it should always be Alfredsson, unless they find a centre to play with him. Mike Fisher is a great player, but his style of game does not mesh with the Captain’s. Put the eggs in one basket, because when the “Big Three” get going no one in this league can handle them.

But if John Paddock has his heart set on spreading the offense, the dynamic duo needs a third man who can keep up with them. Whether it ends up being Antoine Vermette or Dean McAmmond or even Patrick Eaves, they need to play with that person on a consistent basis to develop the chemistry going into the playoffs.

Lastly, acquire another top-6 forward—from withinin the system or from outside.

This goes hand in hand with the last point. No offence to Chris Neil or Chris Kelly, but they are not players who should be playing in your top 2 lines. Alfredsson, Spezza, Heatley, Fisher, Vermette are the key offensive contributors. They need one more body who can score consistently.

Randy Robitaille was brought in to do that but has only scored in three games. Shean Donovan is fast but has very little finishing ability. Patrick Eaves might end up being that person when he returns from a lengthy injury, but he must show more ability to do it on a regular basis to earn that job.

That leaves McAmmond, who definitely has the speed and the hockey sense to earn the job, but for some reason he hasn’t been given the opportunity for longer than a couple of shifts. Otherwise, GM Bryan Murray may indeed have to look outside the organization to find the right player—and if last season is any indication that will not be a cheap proposition.

These three points aside, it is difficult overall to criticize a first place team. And given the ups and downs the team has faced so far, it could be much worse.