Bleacher Report - Articles by The Pro-FF-iler

Choosing a Fantasy Football Defense: The Other Side Of 'D' Coin

The Pro-FF-iler — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:37:01 -0400

Some say "Defense wins championships".

Some say "He who hesitates is lost".

Some also say "Early bird gets the worm".

Heck, Some even say "I'm not a fantasy expert but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night"...well maybe that's just what I say.

What I did learn over my free continental breakfast is that these sayings exist for a reason. Somewhere in life they have their relevancy.

I say hesitate a little, procrastinate a little...heck even vacillate a little.

Most fantasy owners would say that teams like the Ravens, and Pittsburgh are among the top defenses year in and year out. I think the following may shock you.

Over the last three years, there have only been two teams that have held a top five position two years in a row. The Bears and the Chargers, both in 2006 and 2007.

2008 ushered in five new top defenses. What that says is, there are always three or four surprise defenses that rise to the top...just like the proverbial "cream".

I have no doubt that there are a few elite defenses that almost necessitate being picked a round or two early, worm eaters rejoice. There are just too many variables to decide when is the right time and which one is the right pick.

So for those who don't want to jump the gun at the cost of a running back handcuff or a possible breakout sleeper. I've discovered a less risky option.

When picking a defense I look first at bye week. But not for the reason you think. I want a defense with a bye week somewhere around weeks 6-8. Why you ask? Oohh, great question and I'm glad to see your paying attention.

By week six or so, the defensive scoring scene starts to clarify and the true fantasy defenses emerge. Of course since you followed my advice and picked a defense with a week six bye, wouldn't you know it you need a defense. If your really good at what you do you are already holding a defensive dark horse.

If you are like most of us, you played "a beer a round" on draft night and it was your second league draft. So when your pick came up you slurred something like "Du ah trotly lob u an". Only instead of "Dude I totally love you man", your commissioner heard Detroit Lions.

So now it's time to really focus that blurred vision and find your franchise defense for the rest of the year.

As the scheduling gods would have it, many of the defenses that are predicted for fantasy success have bye weeks early in the year so there is a good chance that those will be available in free agency. Snatch one up and ride the defensive wave all the way to the championship.

Assuming, of course, you didn't play two beers a round, in which case you probably can't read this anyway.

Bengals to Use Ochocinco To Kick Their Trio's. Fantasy Owners Rejoice!

The Pro-FF-iler — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 18:23:25 -0400

Can Chad Ocho Cinco's new found kicking talent make him bigger fantasy impact? It would appear that he just gained a few ADP positions after nailing an extra point attempt versus the Patriots. Of course this was in a preseason game that was ultimately meaningless... or was it?

Let's face it Shane Graham isn't exactly the most lusted after leg in the league. Alliteration aside, in the fantasy world, Shane Graham finished last year's fantasy season 30th among Kickers. New Orleans Saints back up Kicker Garrett Hartley, who only played the second half of the season, finished just five points behind Graham.

Graham did hit a semi respectable 88 percent of his field goals. That is good enough to finish 16th in the league. He only had 24 attempts, that's 28th in the league.

I would be willing to wager that given the exact same 24 kicks, Chad Ocho Cinco could make at least 20. He has the leg. During the same preseason game he kicked off to start the second half. His kick was fielded at the nine yard line. While that's not exactly Jason Elam kicking in Mile High. It is certainly not to shabby.

Grahams average kickoff distance was 63 yards. That puts his ball at the seven yard line. There is no question about the power in OchoCinco's leg.

I think this could be the biggest factor in Ocho Cinco's favor. Opponents special teams guys always have to be thinking fake. While in some fashion I'm sure it's in the back of their mind. With Ocho Cinco lining up to boot a game winner they have to seriously be thinking "could he maybe take the hand-off around the end?". Just that little thought will cause the rush to hesitate giving Chad extra time to make the kick.

Add the 78* points that Shane Graham scored in fantasy world to the 104* that Chad Ocho Cinco scored and all of the sudden he's scoring up there with the likes of Vincent Jackson and Dwayne Bowe.

Shane Graham should be looking over his shoulder now. If he misses a few early on I would not be surprised to hear chants of " Ocho Cinco" when it comes time for that field goal. Head Coach Marvin Lewis is already on the hot seat and his contract expires after this season. Desperation can make a man to some crazy things.

Ocho Cinco the Kicker. It may seem far fetched but remember this." Refrigerator" Perry wasn't a running back. And before last year the Wildcat wasn't an offense in the NFL. Why not the run the "OchoTrio"

The first time you see Chad trot onto the field as a Kicker, be happy you drafted him a round or so early and start coming up with clever ways to trash talk your opponents. Something like "Ocho just kicked just .." ahh you get the idea.

* Fantasy scoring was based on 1/2 ppr and bonuses for FG <50 yards.

Brett Favre Should End His Career in Atlanta

The Pro-FF-iler — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 05:18:10 -0400

Brett Favre started out a Falcon, so it makes sense he should end as one. While it will be very hard to see that No. 4 in anything other than green and gold, if he wants to come back, we are going to have to get used to it. Green Bay has made the switch to Aaron Rodgers, as they should.

Atlanta has had some trouble these past few seasons with image. The Michael Vick issue sullied the Falcon name, and they did their part in letting go of troubled cornerback DeAngelo Hall.

Arthur Blank and Rich McKay did a great job of putting out those fires. Favre would be the equivalent of the first tree to rebuild the forest. Who better to bring in than the golden boy of the NFL?

Favre had some issues in the past and fought through them. He endured his father's passing with the nation watching. He's as tough mentally as he is physically.

He's the shining beacon that the Falcons need to turn their image around. It would be a homecoming of sorts for Favre and his family, and he’s as big a star in that area as he is in Green Bay.

Brett’s decision would have to be based on a team being a contender. The NFC South isn’t exactly the strongest division in the league.

The Saints and Panthers are the top teams in the division, but they are aging. Tampa Bay is in too much disarray. They need another year or two to get it all back together.

The Falcons were on track with Vick and this was supposed to be his time. Vick would have been in his seventh season. The Falcons had a plan.

You’ve probably heard the phrase “handing over the keys to the sports car,” when referring to quarterbacks. Well, the Falcons are dad's Oldsmobile 442, the one he spent five years restoring, just sitting in the driveway with the engine running.

Favre is the driver the Falcons are looking for. Matt Ryan will be that guy in the future, but who better than Favre to offer him a few years of tutelage? We’ve seen what backing up Brett can do for a guy. Matt Hasslebeck is widely considered to be in the top five in NFL quarterbacks playing today.

This offseason saw the Falcons amass some offensive weapons. Michael Turner is going to be a solid back and they have the young speedster Jerious Norwood. Roddy White isn’t quite a Donald Driver, though he is a success.

Laurent Robinson is ready for a Jennings-esque breakout. It’d be a shame to limit those guys with a rookie quarterback. They can be a playoff team for the next few years while Ryan learns. The timing is right.

Oh, if you didn’t know, the Packers host the Falcons in Week Six. Picture this: Michael Strahan interviewing Brett Favre in Green Bay, only Favre is wearing black and red. I want royalties from the NFL Network!

Untouchables: the art of buy low sell high

The Pro-FF-iler — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 05:09:02 -0400

It works in stocks, real estate, and fantasy football. That mantra has been used over and over again to describe the action of acquiring a stock and turning it over for a profit. And it’s as true in the fantasy world as it is in the stock market and real estate.

Now here's where it gets tricky. Profit is a relative thing. Something of value to one person may not be worth diddly squat to some one else. The old saying..."one man's trash is another's treasure."

This practice doesn’t merit much consideration in a redraft league except if you are predicting an injury. I mean it wouldn’t have made much sense to trade Randy Moss after one bad game last year. But if you traded for him for Chester Taylor in 2006, you’ve found yourself quite the bargain.

Buy low sell high works wonders in a keeper league.

In the example of Moss, I traded Chester Taylor and a 3rd round pick in the 2007 draft for Randy Moss and Marques Colston (I’ve sense traded Colston against my better judgment). Randy Moss led me to the championship game in 2008 (starting Dallas Clark instead of Owen Daniels led me to second place).

I had to ride out a crappy year with the Raiders, but no one was interested in Moss anyway, so he rotted on my bench in 2007. Then sunlight came in the form of Bill Belichik, and fresh dirt and water came from Tom Brady. Moss blossomed in to an oak of a wide receiver.

So what do I do? I trade him this off season for 2008 draft pick 2.5 and 2009 pick 1.? And 2.?.

My reasoning is this. Even if Moss has another great season, chances are he’s not going to put up the same high’s he did last year. He may still be a big time receiver but an increase in age and the apparent breakdown over the long stretch last year signals his body may not with stand much more.

So who else is worthy of a Buy Low Sell High rating:

Ladainian Tomlinson: Believe me it’s hard to say this. I drafted him out of college and he’s been on my fantasy roster every year since. He’s having an amazing career and should be one of those players that are off limits.

But...he’s also going to be 29. He showed signs of wearing down last year. He’s back 100 percent from his knee injury, but what happens when he starts taking hits again?

Sproles is going to see more change of pace snaps. Which translates to LT has lost some pace. All the signs are there. ( I traded him for 2008 pick 1.4 and 1.6 and 2008 pick 1.?)

Brian Westbrook: Many of the same arguments that go for LT go for Westbrook. He is at the magic age of 29. He’s had knee injuries in the past few years. He held up well last year but that was after a long layoff.

He is a huge part of the Eagles offense so he’ll have to work. That kind of wear and tear takes its toll. Caution. (I traded him for 2008 pick 1.5 and 2009 1.?)

Terrell Owens: He is in much the same boat as Moss is, although T.O. is 3 years older. Dallas has a potent offense and there is no doubt that Owens will get his stats (barring injury), but age is not a kind thing.

Owens unpredictable behavior has been held in check for the last two years and he seems to be maturing albeit quite late. Can you guarantee he won’t have another episode? (I don’t own Owens. I shy away from character issues).

I netted three first round picks in the upcoming draft and three first round picks in the 2009 draft. Now some may say that’s quite a risk, but speculating value is a risky business. Selling high means someone else thinks they bought low.

Could LT and the others have another career season? Absolutely. In LT’s case I sincerely hope he does. The question is would I get the same value next year in trade?