Saints-Buccaneers: The Battle for the NFC South Isn't as Close as It Seems

Gris Gris Man — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 07:03:15 -0400

First let me say that I know you have to play the games. Speculation is worth zip—unless you're good enough to sell your picks online. My point is that nobody knows better than a Saints fan that anybody can win or lose on any given Sunday!

Now, that being said, you Buc fans are going to have to explain why you're feeling so superior to the Saints. What measuring stick are you using? Last year...well, that was last year, if that counts, let's count the year before, and then you'd have to shut up.

Here are a few facts and figures from NOW. They are only a compilation of various professionals' opinions, but they are unbiased and informed, so let's see what we got.

Fantasy Values

Now, as most of us know, FF projects values for each team down to each player for the season. It's not written in stone, but it ends up being pretty darn accurate each year, barring injury or arrest.

Offense

I took the top-10 offensive players for each team off of Fox's FF site. I added up each player's fantasy value for these 10 players, and here's what I got:

New Orleans Saints' top-10 offensive players value is.....1117.14 pts
Tampa Bay's top-10 offensive players value is.................908.75 pts

Gee, it looks like Fox's experts and computers say we're 208.39 points better...no reason for feeling superior here TB!

Defense

A bit of a surprise here, the Buc's have taken a huge drop in FF value here from last year. Last year, their D was valued at around 117 points...not so much this year. Let's see:

New Orleans Saints' Defense and Special Teams' value is.....73.61 pts
Tampa Bay's Defense and Special Teams' value is.................71.41 pts

Dammm, you guys have lost stock and are beneath us...again.

OK, now lets look at the real world.

Las Vegas oddsmakers are setting the following lines at this time:

Next week's game between Saints and Buc's.....Saints by 3 to 3.5 pts....ouch
Odds to win NFC South this year....... Saints are 6/5    Buc's are 7/5....damm we got ya here
Odds to win NFC Championship......... Saints are 8/1    Buc's are 12/1....ohhh that's gotta hurt
Odds to win Super Bowl.................. Saints are 18/1   Buc's are 25/1....pow! ouch again guys

Now, I know...we have to play the games, but the purpose of this blog is...WHERE DO THE BUCANEERS GET THE IDEA THAT THEY ARE THE BETTER TEAM...NO ONE ELSE THINKS SO!

The Buc's do have an easier schedule, playing only four playoff teams this year, while the Saints are playing five playoff teams...I don't care...every intelligent analyst says the Saints are the better team!

Now, they said that last year, too, and I will admit, the proof is in the pudding. The first game of the season is gonna set the tone, although it doesn't really matter until we see the final record and who moves on deepest in the playoff's.

That's all I really care about...anyway, I like our chances to be playing football this postseason, while the Buc's are trying to surf on those little waves off of Treasure Island.

GGM ready for action, sir! Stay Frosty, boyze, the Saints are coming to a theatre near you!

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Saints-Buccaneers: The Battle for the NFC South Isn't as Close as It Seems