Bleacher Report - Articles by Ernest Weeks

Could the WAC be looking to move back into Texas?

Ernest Weeks — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 15:59:56 -0400

According to a recent sporting news column, the WAC is again looking at expansion to ten.

It would be wise for the WAC to center its focus on finding Louisiana Tech a travel partner. Louisiana Tech is one of the schools hit hardest by rising gas prices in the conference.

A travel partner is a university located close to another university. Having a travel partner in a conference cuts the amount of travel by allowing other schools, such as Hawaii, to schedule both schools in one round trip.

Tech’s nearest conference mate, New Mexico State, is nearly a thousand miles away. Fortunately, there are several schools from the State of Texas that could assist as a travel partner for the bulldogs.

Since 1992, 1/5 of NFL players drafted from the WAC have come from Texas, a state where the WAC is no longer represented.

First, we’ll run by the schools that would play FBS football in the conference, and then we’ll look at possible solutions for sports other than football.

Schools that field or plan on fielding FBS level football:

Lamar:
Lamar has a proud football history in FBS. The school is small-to-mid sized [10,000] and located close to Houston on the Louisiana-Texas Border.

Lamar fielded a Division I football team up until 1989, when football was dropped altogether due to rising costs and slacking attendance.

Lamar will play in Cardinal Stadium, which is going through 18 million worth of renovations and expansion planned to reach completion by 2010. Pre-expansion, Cardinal Stadium holds 17,500.

Lamar is located in a mid-sized metropolitan statistical area in East Texas. While it lacks the punch of a town like Houston, San Antonio, or Dallas-Fort Worth, The Beaumont Metropolitan Area brings in around 250k, more than enough support for an FBS football team.

North Texas:

North Texas is one of the Texas’ largest universities. UNT has a huge enrollment at 35k, and is quickly developing an Alumni base in the huge Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro area.

UNT is the area’s dominant public school. Concern has been raised about the universities ability to draw in a market containing Texas Christian, SMU, Texas A&M and Texas.

The university has a new stadium in the plans, which will hold around 35,000. The Mean Greens current football home, Fouts Field, holds 30,000.

UNT has been offered WAC membership before and declined. UNT remains an unlikely option since the university has already turned down the geographically challenged WAC to stay in the Texas-oriented Sun Belt.

Texas at San Antonio:

UT San Antonio is the seventh-largest university in Texas, with a student body around 29,000. It is the largest public university within the San Antonio metropolitan area.

The San Antonio metropolitan area is one of Texas’ largest at nearly two million inhabitants.

UT San Antonio is looking to planning on starting football at the Bowl Subdivision level. The University will play at the Alamodome, which seats 65,000, with play scheduled to start around 2010 or 2011.

UT San Antonio would be a wise choice due to the large alumni base, large population base and great stadium.

UT-San Antonio is close to being classified as a doctoral/research university by the Carnegie foundation for the Advancement of Teaching.

Texas State-San Marcos:

Texas State is a large school (28,000) with big plans to change subdivisions within the next five years.

San Marcos is a small town smack dab between Austin and San Antonio. If Texas State gained some notoriety, they could possibly pull fans from both markets.

The school would need to make considerable upgrades to Bobcat Stadium before moving to 1-A. As of this writing, Bobcat Stadium seats only 15,000.

Texas State has ranked in the top tier of western master’s universities for the third consecutive year in the USN&W report study.

Non-football schools:

University of Texas at Arlington:

University of Texas at Arlington is a large (25k) member of the Texas University System smack dab in the middle of the Dallas-Forth Worth-Arlington Metropolitan area.

The university sponsored football until the 1985 season, when a drop in fan support and financial losses of over a million dollars caused the school to shut down the football program.

UT-Arlington would struggle to find support in the DFW metroplex with UNT, Texas Christian, SMU, Texas and Texas A&M drawing from it.

For a university that doesn’t sponsor football, UTA would be a solid addition to the WAC due to its large size and placement within the Dallas-Forth Worth-Arlington metropolitan area.

Texas-Arlington is also a highly regarded academic institution. The Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching rated it as a Doctoral-Research- High Research Activity University.

Since 1998, UT-Arlington has won the Southland’s commissioners cup three times, more than any other southland university during this time period.

Denver:

While Denver is not close to Ruston, Louisiana, they are located in a major metropolitan area and airport hub. A team with these qualifications could help cut down on travel without regards to its location.

Denver profiles similarly to the University of Saint Louis: A small, urban private with great academics. It is a Doctoral-Research Universities and was rated highly during the USN&W study (85^th).

The Denver metropolitan area rakes in 2.5 million. While DU will always lose viewers to the University of Colorado and the Denver Broncos, one day DU could have more exposure in the Denver market than Colorado State or Wyoming.

The best addition for the WAC at this point is probably either UT-San Antonio (with football) or UT-Arlington (without football).

However, there are several universities in Texas and Louisiana that warrant the WAC's interest. All of these universities listed here could become future additions to the Sun Belt, C-USA or WAC.

Atlantic 10 Football: Coming Soon to a Stadium Near You!

Ernest Weeks — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 13:15:16 -0400

Tell me what comes to mind when I mention the Atlantic 10: Xavier’s run to the Elite Eight. St. Joe’s near miss at an undefeated season in ’04. John Chaney. John Calipari and his 1996 Massachusetts Minutemen going all the way to the Final Four.

I’ll reckon you didn’t answer FBS football.

The time is ripe for the Atlantic 10 to lay a foundation for a Division I-A football league. Teams like Temple, SUNY-Buffalo, and East Carolina would love a new Eastern Division I conference. UNC-Charlotte and Massachusetts have legitimate Division I aspirations.

How can a 14-team Division I conference where only three schools are considering I-A football sponsor the sport at that level? A little bit of compromise—and one monster plan.

The Atlantic 10 currently has three schools that are/will (eventually) sponsor FBS football: UNC-Charlotte, Temple, and UMass.

UNC-CHARLOTTE

NC-Charlotte is likely starting up a football program, preferably at the FBS level. The board of directors will vote on officially adding a football program in September, which would likely start play in the 2013 season without conference affiliation. Charlotte will likely also break ground on a shiny new football stadium as part of the project.

TEMPLE

The Owls are the only A-10 team to currently sponsor Division I football. They play at Lincoln Financial field, home of the NFL’s Eagles, a stadium that seats 60,000. Though the Temple football program has fallen on hard times, they did average 30k attendance in 2007-08. Temple currently plays football in the MAC.

UMASS

The Minutemen are the least likely of the three schools to sponsor D-I football. They would need to make major upgrades to Warren P. McGuirk Alumni Stadium to meet FBS attendance minimums.

There are other options for UMass. Massachusetts might also rent from the Patriots or build an entirely new stadium. UMass is currently awaiting the results of a task force on the feasibility of a Division I-A football program.

UMass, Temple, and UNC-Charlotte are the conference’s best and brightest. The Atlantic 10 can’t afford to lose these schools to the MAC or Sun Belt because they aspire to play football at the highest level. An Atlantic 10 football league is attainable despite the A-10’s large size.

The A-10 can start taking baby steps towards bringing Division I football to the conference simply by adding a football school now. But for the Atlantic 10 to really get the ball rolling on sponsoring FBS football, it has to wait for the Big East to split and expand.

If and when the Big East splits, the remaining Big East members (DePaul, Marquette, Georgetown, Saint John’s, Seton Hall, Providence, Villanova) will need a new member (or three) to fill up the vacant spots in their new conference.

The most likely scenario is for the Big East Catholic schools to cherry-pick the Atlantic 10 for Saint Louis, Xavier, and Dayton. We’ll assume the A-10 has lost three schools to the Big East, and that the "Public" Big East has poached UCF and Memphis from C-USA.

While losing Xavier, Dayton, and Saint Louis hurts the A-10 in the short term, long term it allows for the growth of a football league.

The A-10 would do well to follow one of the oldest plans in the book: the Gavitt Plan. The Gavitt Plan started out as a future plan of operation for the Big East by founder Dan Gavitt. It calls for the conference to expand to 16 and run an "umbrella league," or to house two conferences under one roof.

Our Umbrella League will contain 16 schools: eight of which play FBS football, and eight who don’t.

If the A-10 follows the Gavitt Plan, they would have five spots to fill. Five is also the number of teams the Atlantic 10 needs to support Division I football.

Using its leverage as a superior basketball league, the A-10 should cherry-pick the CAA for three schools.

DELAWARE

This is the easiest pick of the bunch. The Blue Hens have several notable accomplishments in Division I-AA, including 2007’s second-place finish in the FCS Playoffs and a 57-61 record against FBS competition.

Most importantly, they’ve had seven straight seasons with attendance north of the 20,000 mark in a stadium that seats only 22k. Plans are in the works to expand the on-campus stadium to 35,000. As an added bonus, the University of Delaware is located snugly inside the Philadelphia metro area.

GEORGIA STATE

The newest football program in the Atlanta area comes from this institution. Georgia State plays at the insanely huge Georgia Dome (70,000) in one of the South’s premier recruiting areas (they won’t get much coverage because of Georgia, Georgia Tech, and the Falcons, though). Georgia State has made a great hire in coach Bill Curry and plans to start football in 2012.

JAMES MADISON

James Madison has been one of the CAA’s premier football programs, going to the FCS playoffs in '06 and '07 and winning it all in '04. They currently have plans to expand their stadium to 25k. JMU would bring the Atlantic 10 another premier university in Virginia.

This gives the Atlantic 10 six football schools, the minimum number of institutions for sponsoring football. All members of this group could easily be ready to play FBS football by 2015.

The next step for the Atlantic 10 is to get a head start on the upgrading process. The four FCS schools could then join Temple and UNC-Charlotte in a brand new FBS conference.

First, however, the conference would need to win over three more schools.

APPALACHIAN STATE

The Mountaineers of Appalachian State, known best for 2008’s pummeling of Michigan, field one of the best FBS programs around. They already have the stadium for FBS (20k capacity) and are coming off three straight FCS national championships.

The Mountaineers would be an associate member for football purposes only so the new conference can remain 6/5 compliant and have an eight-game conference schedule.

EAST CAROLINA

The Mid-Atlantic at this time is a bad place to play football. You’re way out of your geographical footprint, no matter where you end up. East Carolina would happily join a more geographically sensible conference where they won’t have to trek to Texas every year.

ECU brings a rabid football fanbase and a football tradition that includes several top 25 finishes in the early '90s. C-USA will lose a lot of luster for East Carolina if Memphis leaves for the Big East.

SUNY-BUFFALO

SUNY-Buffalo’s football program has fallen upon hard times since it upgraded to DI-A in 1999. However, those attendance statistics aren’t as bad as the numbers lead you to believe. 15-20k is about average for a university so close to an NFL franchise.

The University has a large alumni base and a 30k on-campus stadium. All the tools are there for Division I football. SUNY Buffalo just needs wins and regional competition to strengthen its D-I football program.

Here's look at my finished product.

Atlantic 10 Football Members: Massachusetts, Temple, UNC-Charlotte, Delaware, Georgia State, James Madison, East Carolina, SUNY-Buffalo

Atlantic 10 Basketball Members: Richmond, Saint Bonaventure, Fordham, Duquesne, La Salle, Saint Joseph’s, George Washington, Rhode Island

With the addition of SUNY-Buffalo, Appalachian State, and East Carolina, the Atlantic 10 would be ready to break ground on a brand new football conference. The Atlantic 10 would also have a 16-team basketball league: large, but organized and stable.

It will be a bright day for the A-10 and college football fans alike.

The Word on Big Ten Expansion

Ernest Weeks — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 18:41:08 -0400

Ever since Penn State became the eleventh Big Ten Institution, Big Ten expansion has become a hot topic. The Big Ten's eleven member conference setup, while it does have its benefits, also is loaded down with several drawbacks.

Eleven is an odd number, too few to hold a conference championship game, yet, just enough member institutions that all the teams don't play each other during the regular seasons.

To be fair, the Big Ten has reaped the benefits of multiple conference champions on more than one occasion.

However, the figurative benefits of staying at eleven teams are far outweighed by the benefits of expanding by one to twelve—if that "one" is the right team.

To be the "right team", the benefits of a twelfth member must financially add to the conference more than the cost of splitting the conference profits amongst 12 teams. To expand by one, it would cost each Big Ten school about 1.25 million (In 2007, Big Ten teams averaged about 16 million in conference payouts [177/11]).

To be financially feasible, the twelfth team and the Big Ten Championship game combined would need to add 13.75 million to conference coffers, a little under a full conference share.

Consider this also: In 2006, the SEC raked in almost 13 million from their championship game alone, the ACC about six million from their championship and the Big 12 about 11 million from their championship. In conclusion, it appears no matter what school they add, the Big 10 is set to make loads of money just by expanding to twelve.

However, there's one more twist to our puzzle. The Big Ten has reaped the benefits of a system that rewards them: the number eleven. Eleven teams means that each Big Ten football team doesn't play two of its conference mates during the regular season. This means that a Big Ten school can go four years between visits to Ann Arbor or Columbus. It also means that two (or more) teams can run through the conference schedule either undefeated or with just one loss without facing each other, launching both teams to the top of the Big Ten and BCS standings.

This, combined with the Big Ten's near-automatic spot in the rose bowl, allows the Big Ten to get multiple BCS berths almost every year. A great example is the nine win, 13th ranked Illinois team that played in the rose bowl last year or the Michigan team that played in the 2007 Rose Bowl.

Each BCS berth can be worth an upwards of 10 million, and an expansion to twelve could seriously dash the chances of the Big Ten getting two teams in the BCS picture. Once the Big Ten expands to twelve, no two teams would dash through the Big Ten schedule undefeated again.

For simplicities sake, we'll say that the team needs to provide in profits, through tradition, alumni base and markets, equal to that of the average Big Ten member (16 million/year). What teams will be up to that tall task? More importantly, will this member also be academically and institutionally up to the conference par?

Today, we'll take a page from our science book, scientifically examining then eliminating each school until only one remains.

One of the most important requirements for Big Ten expansion is for a school to fit into the conference academically. So, how does the Big Ten define academic excellence? A good start would be to look at something the other 11 Big Ten (as well as most of the PAC-10 and several other BCS schools) have in common: They belong to an elite group called the American Association of Universities. From here, we can bring up a list of possible candidates from or close to the Big Ten footprint like so:

Notre Dame*

Iowa State

Missouri

Pittsburgh

Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey

Syracuse University

*Notre Dame is an exception to the rule here. They aren’t AAU, but they fare really well in other measures of academic measurement (ie: Search for Notre Dame in the Carnegie Foundation for Advancement of Teaching or look at the US News college rankings and you’ll see what I mean). Plus, the shear amount of fans that Notre Dame would bring to table and public exposure they bring means they break all the normal rules.

Next, we’re going to work off some Big Ten assumptions. Unless you slept under a rock for the past year and a half, you probably have heard about how the Big Ten network has been a rousing success (if not, read about it here).

The goal of the Big Ten should be to work on that success by adding as many potential buyers to the Big Ten Network as possible. In shorter terms, they should look for a team that brings a market without a Big Ten presence. Since the Big Ten already has a team in western Pennsylvania (Penn State) and Iowa (University of Iowa), Pittsburgh and Iowa State are unlikely choices. This leaves us with:

Notre Dame

Missouri

Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey

Syracuse University

Now, imagine if you were athletic director at a large college with a long football history. Lets say you got paid $10 million every year straight cash just for the rights to your universities football games.

Then, you got to schedule pretty much whoever you want, guaranteeing (if you so desired) 2-3 wins every year playing the dregs of D-I. Anytime you got nine wins, you pretty much automatically qualify for a BCS berth.

Oh, but it gets even better.

Let’s say your school got to play hoops in the best conference in the land while also playing with peer institutions. Would you leave this behind to join what would become the nation’s most competitive college football league? Notre Dame wouldn’t either.

So, we’re down to the three prime candidates for the twelfth and final Big Ten spot:

The University of Missouri

Rutgers, the state university of New Jersey

Syracuse

One of our candidates is just pretending to still be in the race. We’ll eliminate them by the following rule. Let’s say for a University to bring sufficient markets to the Big Ten, the sum of the markets brought must equal at least two million.

Since Syracuse and Rutgers both factor into the booming NYC market (20 million), they easily qualify.

However, does Missouri bring 2 Million people to the Big Ten Network?

At first glance, Missouri would bring enough people based on the population of Kansas City (3M) and Saint Louis (2M). Yet, is the University of Missouri really dominant in both of these markets from the center of the state?

Saint Louis and Kansas City are on the Eastern and Western edge of the state, almost closer to the University of Kansas and the University of Illinois than Missou.

University of Missouri to Saint Louis: 126 miles

University of Illinois to Saint Louis: 176 miles

University of Kansas to Kansas City: 40 miles

University of Missouri to Kansas City: 126 miles

From this, we can conclude that A) Kansas is probably the dominant team in the Kansas City Market (2 million people) and that Illinois is a factor in the Saint Louis Market (making it a market which the Big Ten already has a presence in). Therefore, Syracuse and Rutgers are more fit than Missouri when it comes to trails of Big Ten membership.

So, we’re down to two universities: Upstate New York’s University of Syracuse and New Jersey’s Rutgers. So, which one does the Big Ten save the last dance in our ballad of conference realignment for? Stay tuned. Rutgers fits the Big Ten mold (large, urban, state flagship, closer to New York City) but lacks the athletic program that Syracuse has, in either roundball or pigskin.

If Rutgers can overcome its financial woes and build a sports superpower in the Big East, all while wooing the media conglomerate of New York, they will eventually be selected. The ball is in Rutgers court now. If they fall short somewhere along the journey to college sports glory, Syracuse will become the belle of the Big Ten ball.

That’s all there is to it.