Managing Marginal Costs In a Contract: Option Years For 2009's Free Agents

Carl Stream — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 09:24:42 -0400

With the 2008 baseball season quickly coming to an end, it is never too early to start looking ahead to the future. Although free agency is always interesting, one aspect of free agency that is often not looked at are the option years players have on their existing contracts.

At this point in the season, there is enough data relating to the players' seasons and the teams' futures to guess whether or not the option years will be picked up for many well-known players. Here is a position-by-position look at these players.

Catcher

There are no big-name players facing the future of having an option picked up or not at catcher.

First Base

Carlos Delgado—$12 Million Mutual Option with a $4 Million Buyout—Early in the season, Delgado was struggling, but his play picked up towards the middle of the season. Although the Delgado of old will never be seen again, Delgado is an above-average first baseman, putting a line of .255/.341/.484 up this year and sporting an above-average 117 OPS+, up from last year's extremely average 103 OPS+.

Considering that the buyout is a third of the total contract that Delgado would receive next year, this is an easy decision for the Mets. They would be smart to pick up his option, as the marginal cost is only $8 million.

Delgado is 36 and will turn 37 in 2009, so his next contract will probably be his last multi—year contract. Considering this year has been fairly successful for him, he might consider opting out, but he should be able to do this well next year as well, and then leave as a free agent after his age 37 year. Both sides will pick up this option.

Jason Giambi—$22 Million Club Option with a $5 Million Buyout—Giambi has had a fun year, and it has also been a very good year for him, as he has put up a line of .249/.387/.506. The only issue is that his option is very expensive. He will be 38 in 2009, and a $22 million aging first baseman is not what the Yankees need.

They will buyout his contract and look to resign him for two years at a diminished cost, giving Giambi added security after 2009 while giving the Yankees a little money back. Giambi will not be able to receive lots of money from any other team, so he will definitely look to come back to the Yankees next year.

Second Base

There are no big-name players facing the future of having an option picked up or not at second base.

Short Stop

Edgar Renteria—$12 Million Club Option with a $3 Million Buyout—A few years ago, Renteria was considered to be one of the better shortstops in baseball, but after this year's .268/.319/.361 line, that thinking has been buried. The Tigers will buyout his contract and not look to re-sign Renteria at all. He will have to look back into playing in the National League because he has not solved the American League at all.

Third Base

Chipper Jones—$8-$11 Million Vesting Option with an Undisclosed Buyout— With Jones' selection to the 2008 All-Star game, his club option is at $10 Million for the 2009 season, although the end of the season might increase the option to $11 million.

The Braves will pick up his option, although Chipper might look to sign an extension after this season and restructure his contract since he will turn 37 in 2009.

Left Field

Garret Anderson—$14 Million Club Option with a $3 Million Buyout—Anderson has been a fairly overrated player for a while now, as he does not walk and has not hit for power since 2003. For some reason though, the Angels continue to give him a lot of playing time, as they still have a soft spot in their heart for Anderson.

With that being said, the Angels will not pick up his option for 2009 and will instead buy his contract out. They realize that they have a glut of outfielders, and a 36-year-old left fielder who is OPSing .759 this year will not look good next year.

Carl Crawford—$8.25 Million Club Option with a $2.5 Million Buyout—Crawford has been a mystery this year. His line of .273/.319/.400 is horrible by his standards, and also by most players' standards. He is 27 and has played very well in previous years, although he is a better fantasy player than real player, but his option will be picked up.

At $8.25 million, he is cheap, and the marginal cost is low, since the buyout is fairly large. He will be a Ray in 2009, but past 2009, he will be gone, as he will still be able to sign a large contract based on his success in past years.

Center Field

Mike Cameron—$10 Million Club Option with a $0.75 Million Buyout—Even with Cameron missing the first 25 games of the season, he has had a good season. His line of .244/.333/.506 is good, and his defense is still thought of as good.

He will be 36 in 2009, so the defense will not be as good as it once was. The Brewers will pick his option up because $10 million is a fine price for a good fielding, .839-OPS-hitting center fielder.

If they do not pick up his option, it will be interesting to see whom they put in center, considering the signing of Cameron in the offseason was a big deal following the disaster that was Bill Hall playing center field.

Right Field

Ken Griffey Jr.—$16 Million Club Option with a $4 Million Buyout—The White Sox are on the hook for his full 2009 salary, but are only required to pay half the buyout, since the Reds will pick up the other half. Griffey is not the player he once was, and the White Sox will buy out his contract.

Vladimir Guerrero—$15 Million Club Option with a $3 Million Buyout—Guerrero has been the face of the franchise since he signed his large contract with them prior to the 2004 baseball season, but he is not the same player he used to be.

With that being said, his line of .288/.353/.499 is still good, but it is confusing. In 2007, his line of .324/.403/.547 was fantastic, so the drop-off between that year and this year is a bit of a mystery.

I don't think it's Guerrero dropping to a new level of playing. I think he had a one-year slump, and will pick it up after this year. Guerrero will be 32 for most of 2009, and he is not done as a player. The Angels will pick up his option for 2009, but without a doubt, that will also be his last season with the Angels' organization.

Designated Hitter

Jim Thome—$13 Million Club Option with a $3 Million Buyout; Option vests with 564 PA's in 2008—Thome is at 464 PA's this year, and there are 36 games left in the season for the White Sox. Through 126 games, Thome has averaged a little less than four PAs a game, which, if that pace continued, would push Thome over the 564 PAs for the season he needs to have his option vested.

Thome's had a good year, hitting .251/.373/.518, but the White Sox have other players on their roster who could, or should, play DH next year. Thome has been better than either Nick Swisher or Paul Konerko, so he will continue to play the rest of the year to help the White Sox's playoff push.

His option for 2009 will vest because of this, and he will be back with the team next year, although I think the White Sox would buyout his contract if they had the option. They do not need another 1B/DH on their roster next year, and Thome continues to clog up that situation even more if he's on the team in 2009.

Unfortunately for the White Sox, they need his bat down the stretch. If the White Sox were far ahead of far behind a playoff berth, they would bench him in an attempt to keep his PAs down, but that won't occur.

Starting Pitcher

John Lackey—$9 Million Club Option with a $0.5 Million Buyout—Lackey has been one of the best starting pitchers in the AL these last few years, and he will be 30-years old for the 2009 season.

His option will be picked up at the extremely cheap cost of $9 million. The Angles might look to sign him to a long-term contract, as he will command a large deal after 2009.

Mark Mulder—$11 Million Club Option with a $1.5 Million Buyout—The Cardinals will buyout Mulder's contract. He is done with the Cardinals after this season, and his career is close to being over as well.

Carl Pavano—$13 Million Club Option with a $1.95 Million Buyout—Just as the Cardinals will buyout Mulder's contract, the Yankees will do the same with Pavano. He has been a terrible signing for the Yankees, and they cannot wait to get his contract out from under them.

The added space from his contract being gone will let the Yankees chase after top pitchers like Ben Sheets or CC Sabathia this offseason.

Brad Penny—$8.75 Million Club Option with a $2 Million Buyout—After Penny's 2007 season, where he was one of the best pitchers in the National League, this option looked like a steal for the Dodgers. But Penny has been terrible this year, and looking back at his 2007 season, it is more and more likely that that year was a fluke season.

While this season has been a fluke season in the opposite direction, it further reinforces the thought that 2007 was a bit lucky and that his previous seasons are more likely to reoccur in the future.

Penny would probably like to be bought out so he can sign a long-term deal, but the Dodgers will pick up his option in hopes that he returns to being an above-average pitcher.

Derek Lowe is a free agent after this season, so the Dodgers would like to keep one of the two pitchers, and keeping Penny will be much easier than keeping Lowe.

John Smoltz—$12 Million Club Option—This option would have been guaranteed if Smoltz had pitched over 200 innings in 2008, but Smoltz was injured for most of the season. The Braves will look to restructure his deal for 2009 and 2010, and if that cannot get done, they will still probably pick up his 2009 option in hopes of him coming back as either a starter or a closer.

Free agency is right around the corner, and speculation about option years is following close behind.

Bleacher Report - Articles by Carl Stream

Managing Marginal Costs In a Contract: Option Years For 2009's Free Agents