Bleacher Report - Articles by Junior Nelson

Will Canucks Fight For Sedins?

Junior Nelson — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 18:36:23 -0400

In a recent article I sought to demonstrate what a Canucks team with the Sedins moved behind Lecavilier and Heatley would need to look like. It wasn't pretty, the defence would need toaccept a questionable pair into the top six. There would be a rookie and a journeyman in goal. This is because so much salary would need to be dumped.

But an attached poll revealed that half the respondents wanted the Sedins back. Also offered were Lecavalier, Marleau and Heatley, three big guys that can play center. They did not raise much interest, although Lecavalier had some votes. Gaborik, Demitra's pal, also raised little interest. This seems counterintuitive as the Canucks are small down the middle. If Hodgson makes the team, they shrink even further.

It is true the Sedins displayed some grit during the playoffs, but they are not enforcers. In fact, the twins need protection on the ice. Since they require a speedy winger to chase down shoot-ins, this protection needs to come from the defense. The Canucks do have some muscle on the back-end. This leads to a slow defence. Also, the slow D-men proved insufficient in the muscle department, anyway.

In short, the Canucks aren't one or two pieces away from contention. They aren't very big or very fast or too skillful.

They must upgrade on defense. This is a glaring weakness once you subtract Ohlund. A puck-moving speedster that can lead the rush would be good. A big guy with wheels and a shot would be ideal. Guys like that are not cheap or plentiful. Anyway, Niedermayer and Komisarek might not want to come here.

The offense was pretty good at the start of last season. The Kesler/Burrows combination was clicking, stealing pucks and getting chances. Demitra played center well on the second line. The Sedins played well together, occasionally ricocheting a puck in off Bernier's stick.

Goaltending was considered no problem at all.

Then the season happened and events forced the evolution of the team.

Can the Canucks be that good again? Perhaps. A set line featuring the Sedins and Burrows would seem to be a good start. If the Sedins don't return, though, a replacement roster cannot be cobbled together from free agents. Trades would be necessary. This handcuffs the Canucks because Gillis is not a popular member of the old boy's club.

So, what to do? Getting better through the draft is how some teams do it. The Canucks could go this route, but not without shifting major assets. Also, this is a club with immediate needs! An impact player from this year's draft seems like a long, longshot. They could try to move up, but those waters are muddied by the desperate Brian Burke

We'll know this week where the Canucks will go. I hope the Sedins can go with them.

Vancouver Canucks: Time for Change and a Philiosophic Shift

Junior Nelson — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 06:09:05 -0400

At this minute Roberto Luongo and both Sedins are playing it close to the vest. No word from either camp that the player will re-sign here.

What if they don't? What if the Canucks lose the Sedins to free agency and trade Luongo? What could be accomplished? For one thing it would shift the core group. The current (2009) crop was unable to overcome a young, fast, and skilled Chicago Blackhawks team.

Perhaps the answer is to become younger and faster, too. Cory Schneider is as ready as the AHL can make him. He has excelled at every level. There is no reason to assume he cannot make the jump to the NHL.

If there is doubt raised in camp, shift the starting role to LaBarbera. LaBarbera has had expert coaching for most of the last season and has been watching a similar player. He must have picked up a few things, here and there. He wasn't far off when he arrived from LA, either. If they both have crippling life-altering melt-downs, Luongo might be available as a free agent next offseason—maybe cheaper, too.

Moving Mr.Luongo has other benefits, as well. There will be a Captain on the bench for one thing. Starting goalies can be had for less money, for another.

One big benefit would be the return, which, following the current trends, should include a player, a prospect, and a pick. That player might be a puck carrying, speedy defenceman or some other important piece like a large center.

Mr. Gillis has shown himself to be unfettered by the conventional wisdom that small is undesirable in the NHL. He drafted Cliff Ronning play-alike Cody Hodgeson over Lucic-like Kyle Beech. I don't want to rant here, but when your most pugnacious guy is 184-pound Rick Rypien, there is a problem.

Unless you are talking defence, then behemoths are the norm. Unfortunately, behemoths are slow. Even the offensive behemoth was slow last season. This, too, is a problem.

The third problem is players that are too expensive. Demitra and Sundin are the obvious examples, but I would argue that Salo's fragility makes him a less-valuable asset. If a player is pursuing the Guinness book for injuries, then you can't count on him being there when he is needed.

What to do? Trade Luongo now, while people think his playoff performance was an anomaly. Amass picks! Maybe Tampa wants a goalie. Maybe Lu wants to go back to Florida. See what I'm saying?

Trade Demitra to wherever Gaborik goes. In addition to saving face this might get some return. It is preferable to buying him out.

Bring up the Moose that have earned it. Alexandre Bolduc, for example. He can play and he is a big (6'2" 200-pounds) center. Cory Schneider, Micheal Grabner, and Nathan McIver are other candidates. Don't rush Hodgeson, though!

Sign some free agents. There is space under the cap for some very big names. It would be nice to get a player or coach with a Stanley Cup ring, too. It might help morale.

The most important thing is to not freak out and sign a guy because everybody else is chasing him. I think the Heatleys, Niedermayers, and Bouwmeesters of the world are great players and fine human beings but that doesn't mean they will fit on a hockey team!

Of course some of the names being thrown around could help the Canucks, but each brings different things to the table which must be accounted for. Bouwmeester, for example, would fit as a player, but would upset the payroll. Others would cost players which alters a team's chemistry. Would anyone welcome Heatley if he costs Kesler and Schneider?

A youth movement can be sold to knowledgeable Vancouver fans as long as they see definite progress. I suggest Luongo, Salo, Mitchell, and Demitra aren't going to get faster or stronger or learn a bunch of new things to improve. I don't need to mention Sundin, right?

Will there be a better time to blow it up? No. The time is now. This week. Will Gillis ante up?

An Imaginary Canuck's Roster

Junior Nelson — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 03:13:47 -0400

Dany Heatley has demanded a trade to Vancouver! Hurray!

In the excitement, Mike Gillis trades Kesler and Raymond to Ottawa. He quickly re-signs the Sedins who announce they like Burrows. In a panic he phones Demitra to see if he can center Heatley.

"Oh, sure! He is like second coming of Pyatt, same type of player."

But Gillis, the wily former agent is not convinced his former client has his stick on the ice. When Tampa Bay calls, Gillis throws all in and trades Luongo for Lecavilier.

Shaken, he phones the farm team, seeking reassurance.

"Sure, Schnieder can play, Bolduc,too."

Gillis knows what the old warrior Arniel isn't saying. He pencils McIver and Hodgeson in anyway. Checking his math Gillis trades away Demitra for pucks (or buys him out).

What would that look like?

Sedin, Sedin, Burrows

Heatly, Lecavilier, Bernier

Wellwood, Hodgeson, Hansen

Hordichuk, Johnston, Rypien

Bieksa, Mitchel

Salo, O'Brien

Edler, McIver

Schnieder

LaBarbera

If the Sedins' cap hit is five each, this roster comes in at $57 million. Is it wise?

I always think you start with the goalie. Is Schnieder ready? He looks good in the AHL. There is really only one way to see. If he is not, then all is lost.

A team like this should be high scoring and LaBarbera isn't bad, but the Canucks would be putting ALL thier eggs in one basket. At worst, LaBarbera becomes the starter and Schnieder's season is ruined like Price.

There is also the risk of ruining Hodgeson. He is a very little guy. I expect a game against Calgary would leave him in pieces. Also, importantly, the D wouldn't be any quicker.

So, could it work? It's too risky, I think, at least until we see Schnieder and Hodgeson play regularly.

Jacques Martin: The New Coach of the Montreal Canadiens?

Junior Nelson — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 15:28:47 -0400

Jacques Martin is the new coach of the Canadiens?

What does it mean?

It means boring, defence-focused hockey, of course. That is sort of expected from a GM who was also one of the best defensive forwards ever.

One surprise is that it is Gainey's call to make. It implies that the Canadiens, while still up for sale, are not in any danger of being sold!

Why else would Martin leave his long-term contract with Florida (aside from missing the playoffs for three straight years)?

It is apparent that there is no market for NHL franchises at $500 million. Why should there be? There are bankrupt franchises in the league these days, where's the problem?

The problem is that the flagship franchise of the league isn't raising any interest. I know these are tough times, so tough the feds are even going to admit it is a recession, but no takers for the Canadiens? Even in times like this, if the Dallas Cowboys or LA Lakers came up for sale, there would be buyers.

Maybe the whole story isn't known. Gary Bettman would never shroud facts with rhetoric, I am sure!

I think it also means that Montreal owners are so comfortable financially that they are no longer seeking postseason revenue.

Actually, that is not fair—Jacques has been to the finals once, with Ottawa. I don't think that offsets his nine first-round exits, though.

He has only missed the playoffs four times in fourteen years and did make it to the second round once as well. Plenty good enough for a team like Montreal, no?

Electrifying Tampa Bay Lightning Trade!

Junior Nelson — Sat, 02 May 2009 07:15:19 -0400

Just supposing the Vancouver Canucks win the cup, what does that mean to the Tampa Bay Lightning? It may represent a golden opportunity to nab the best goaltender in the game today.

Consider this, Luongo makes his home in Florida, his wife's home state. He has never said he wants to stay in Vancouver. He is a free agent in one year.

Why trade for an upcoming free agent? Workable opportunities to get the top guy don't come up more than once a career for most GMs. Actually landing him is rarer. Wayne Gretzky wanted to go to Vancouver to center Bure, but Vancouver's management soured the deal. Think they regret that? Did they get a second chance?

What would be required to do it? Besides an iron will and the second pick overall you would need to package up some salaries for Vancouver to accept. Some other salaries would have to go, too.

Why would Vancouver do it? They have another goalie, a youngster named Schnieder, who might be ready to play some games on his way to the starting job. Back-up and local boy Jason Labarbera could start or they could bring in a mentoring free agent.

The key for Vancouver would be the second overall pick. Hedman and Duchene will likely be availible, both would fit. Hedman could follow the same path Edler travelled to the NHL with Ohlund (if he resigns) as mentor.

As well, Vancouver won't have cap space to sign the Sedin twins if Toronto drives the price up. Luongo's salary off the books would solve that problem.

This supposition is based on the premise that the Canucks can overcome Chicago, Detroit and then the Eastern champions (Bruins, I bet) to win the cup. If they do, Tampa can win,too.

Samuel Pahlsson Key for Chicago Blackhawks

Junior Nelson — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 07:18:59 -0400

The upcoming Chicago, Vancouver match-up will feature the play-off return of Sedin nemisis Samuel Pahlsson. While with the Ducks Pahlsson became the twin's shadow, benefitting from time spent training together in Sweden.

He was able to disrupt thier cycle and render them ineffective. New linemate Burrows brings speed and grit along with decent hands to the equation. The Canucks need production from this line to be successful.

Another great aspect of the matching will be goaltending. Two unfatigued, elite goalies on hot streaks battling two high scoring offences, does it get better than that? Luongo has been a tightly focused man on a mission and will confound the young forwards of the Blackhawks until Byfuglien runs him.

In the event of injury the Canucks have hometown boy Jason LaBarbera who came to the Canucks after losing his job with Los Angeles. The Chicago back-up is another former King Cristobal Huet, who won the Roger Crozier award last year for best save percentage. The Hawks might have an edge here.

As long as I am addressing this, might I mention how utterly all or nothing this is for the Canucks? They will never be able to duplicate this type of year with this sort of roster again. The salary cap guarantees that.

Asking the Sedins to sign at anything less than full market value will be tough with Burke driving up the price. Signing the Sedins means there won't be a lot of money left over for a Sundin replacement.

As well, in the event of the Canucks actually winning the cup it would make a lot of sense to cash in Luongo now, rather than fail to resign him later. Why? Well, he lives in Florida. Tampa has the second overall pick in this year of Tavares and Hedman and Duchene. The Canucks could get Hedman and resign Ohlund to tutor him. Whatever. Vancouver has Luongo now and he is motivated.

I think the slightest edge in offence might go to Chicago, but only because the Canucks latest iteration has only been on display for two games. I like the new, post-Sundin look. I wonder if this faster (yes, Hansen is faster than Sundin), look doesn't favour the Canucks?

Checking line centers Pahlsson and Wellwood promise good entertainment as one bedevils the Sedins and the other emerges as one of the great puck thieves in the game today. Wellwood's line has some considerable offensive ability making them a threat on turnovers.

Wellwood's work short-handed has also been good, aiding what should be the better penalty killing unit. It's also nice to see the occasional Sedin penalty-kill shift. It's the powerplay that the Sedins really excel at, though. They can be dominant and thier cycling really runs the legs off penalty-killers.

I think the edge in special teams has to go to Vancouver which will lead to a win in the series if the young Hawks get officiated on.

Each aspect I mentioned has to be considered only as something the team in question has to overcome. This is why I really think the Canucks have an edge, the psychologicals. These are the things that affect teams in thier heads. This reflects thier identity as a group.

The Blackhawks are a fine young team, but this is not thier year. The Canucks have had to overcome too much to become who they are. All that remains is to finish the job, to keep overcoming any obstacle. That is what champions do. The Canucks are demonstrating this and have all year.

Mats Sundin to the Vancouver Canucks?

Junior Nelson — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 00:24:52 -0400

Mats Sundin has begun taking the first steps back to the NHL. Where the former Leaf captain plays is as yet unannounced. Philadelphia and Anaheim won't need him anymore if he returns in a month. The Rangers look good without him. Montreal withdrew thier offer. Ottawa and Toronto are near his business interests, but aren't contending teams.

Vancouver has cap space and yawning holes on the first and second lines. There is that ten million dollar offer on the table too.

What would Sundin fix for Vancouver? Well, he could play wing on the Sedin's line. He is a center, though, so he would likely become the second line center. Demitra would move to the one wing and somebody else would play the other.

Sundin's shot could help the power play, which does need it! He wouldn't be killing penalties, though.

Sundin also does nothing to address the goaltending issues. There are some.

What about leadership? Sundin does bring that, starting in late November at the earliest.

Until Sundin returns to play he's a largish distraction.

The Canucks need to address some fairly pressing issues now. If they fail to do so the problems will compound themselves like money used to and pay dividends like finger-pointing, media savagery, and line-juggling!

There are already grumblers who say Steve Bernier is a plumber and Taylor Pyatt is too. Even franchise cornerstone Roberto Luongo has left himself open to criticism.

There are positives, of course. Both the third and fourth lines are playing pretty well.

I like the defence corps, although there are issues here as well. Salo is too brittle. Some of the others are too slow. None of them is an offensive-minded, puck carrying power, play quarterback, either.

Would Sundin lead this bunch to glory? Truthfully? No, not by himself.

Robert Luongo's Problems Lurking Under the Surface

Junior Nelson — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 20:10:54 -0400

It is known that Roberto Luongo will overwork himself. He likes to play every game, every practice, and stop every shot.

Left unchecked, this trait has left Luongo exhausted at the end of the season in both his years as a Canuck.

I thought this was recognized by ownership as a fault in Nonis' management. When the Canucks did nothing at the trade deadline to relieve the pressure on Luongo (and the Sedins) they cost themselves the playoffs.

The situation was understood—or so it seemed. Sanford wasn't being played down the stretch, and wouldn't be retained.

I noticed that Luongo couldn't watch a peer in net without getting involved with the game. He can't switch off, so he isn't really rested. This is pretty common in sports, and strategies to deal with it are known. Platooning a competitive individual requires addressing that drive, and ensuring that it doesn't interfere in off-days by engaging inappropriately.

Some competitors "play by proxy," and become as involved as if they were playing, with the added frustration of not being able to affect the outcome. This can be avoided by removal of the peer element. If a mentor or student plays, the competitive individual can detach himself, becoming a critical observer. "Switching off" is a key element in rest.

Yet the Canucks have brought back Sanford! Also, adding the captaincy to Luongo's workload effectively enables him to never take a night off.

I thought they would keep Schnieder, who would alleviated the problem and had the added value of mentoring the young guy. They still might, as it looks like Sanford isn't all that.

It's early in the season, but outside of the opener, Luongo has looked quite ordinary. If there is burnout, conventional wisdom has it that a fresh start is best for the player.

I don't want that. But I don't want to watch another Jose Theodore or Felix Potvin situation, either.

Maybe Luongo will play well enough to mask the symptoms again. Maybe it won't matter.

Maybe it's too early to tell. Maybe it's too late.

Vancouver Canucks Are Hot and Cold in Early Season

Junior Nelson — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 00:01:57 -0400

The Vancouver Canucks continue to demonstrate contrasting efforts on successive nights. Even with victories over the vaunted Red Wings and an improved Flames team, there are troubling indicators. Goals against is too high for the offense to overcome every night. The fact that no goals are being scored on the power play is a major reason why. Defensemen jumping in on the rush is a practiced art and the Canucks aren't used to it yet.

The best line has been the third line. This is good and bad. It's great that Hansen is fitting in. It's great that Burrows is hot. It's bad that the Sedins aren't. Sedin passes do seem to come from nowhere, but Bernier must get used to it. Anson Carter took time to learn the Sedin system too.

The second line just looks awkward. I think the Canucks will finish the current road trip and evaluate. Bieksa's return will make a difference. There is a push from the minors with RWs Ouellet, Jaffray, and Grabner, along with veterans Wellwood and Pettinger. There is depth at defense, although the loss of McIver hurt, as new players O'Brien and Davison are slower. Salo looked slow in Buffalo as well.

Most troubling for me is the powerplay or lack thereof. Teams without adequate talent have poor power plays. Teams with poor coaching have inadequate power plays. Which is it here? It's too early to declare either, of course, but the trend is emerging. I wonder if more firepower isn't needed. Vignault is already trying different lines. Demitra was out with the Sedins, a sure sign that all is not well.

The second line might not be together that long. This is problematic because they can't just be reshuffled. Demitra looks good at center and is creative with the puck. Pyatt is not a sniper or fearsome banger. Raymond is quick, but doesn't look ready to me. What to do? Demitra can move over to either wing, Rypien is on the roster at center, and Ouellet deserves a look. If Bernier keeps watching passes bounce off his stick, it will open another spot. Briefly, the Canucks might not have enough guys for the top lines, which shows up vividly on the power play.

The Canucks have some holes at forward. What about defense? Well, Hansen looks great, Mitchell can rush, and Bieksa and Ohlund look fine. Nycholat didn't look out of place. Salo is shooting more and O'Brien sticks his nose in. All good.

Goaltending isn't off to a great start. Luongo has looked fallible and Sanford did too. One of the problems the Canucks have had is an overworked starter. An upgrade might be in order if Luongo is to be rested at all. Sanford didn't do a very good job in Buffalo and could not carry the team in the event of an injury to Luongo. This situation cannot be ignored or easily resolved. Schnieder isn't ready to start in the NHL. But, lots of other teams have goaltending issues as well.

None of these concerns seem terminal. All might be overcame with patience. Bernier might look like an Esposito in December.

There is still plenty of time and plenty of cap space.