Bleacher Report - Articles by TheToddfather

UFC 81 Prediction: Brock Lesnar's UFC Debut

TheToddfather — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 07:33:45 -0500

Those who read my last article might have noticed there was some truth in my questioning of the hype behind Gabriel Gonzaga, who was defeated by Fabricio Wedum for the second time.

Confirmation of my analysis encouraged me to weigh in on the fight everyone's talking about—Brock Lesnar versus Frank Mir.

And once again, I find myself going against the majority of predictions out there.

This fight is a particularly difficult one to predict. You have Lesnar, highly skilled wrestler, making his UFC debut against Frank Mir, a highly skilled Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner. Lesnar has already reached star status within the organization. He goes into his first fight a favorite, but will he live up to the hype?

I may live to regret this comment on February 2, but I do not believe Brock Lesnar will live up to the hype—yet. I think it was a mistake to throw him to the wolves this quick in his UFC career.

Mir is also a problem for Lesnar stylistically. Lesnar might choose to utilize his predictably unstoppable take downs against Mir, but he will simply be playing right into Mir's hands. This is where Mir stands his greatest chance at an upset. And should Lesnar be instructed to keep the fight standing, I question whether his rather brief MMA training will result in a Lesnar capable of victory on his feet.

There's more to the story that is worth mentioning as well. Brock Lesnar could fall victim to the all too common 'Octagon Jitters' so many fighters experience in their UFC debut. And frankly, against someone as dangerous as Mir, this could prove fatal.

Look at how many Pride fighters have struggled with the transition into the octagon.

It's a real problem for a lot of fighters. A huge adrenaline surge causes an inexperienced fighter to become fatigued earlier in the fight.

Not only that, but Lesnar has never seen serious competition anywhere near the level of Frank Mir. His one MMA fight against—Min Soo Kim—was the kind of fight that the UFC should have thrown at Lesnar till he builds some confidence within his new trade.

Min Soo Kim was pretty much a shoe-in for Lesnar, and as a result, it makes predicting the Frank Mir fight that much more difficult.

Also, Frank Mir is no stranger to larger opponents. Some of us remember the horrifying video of Mir breaking Tim Sylvia's arm in the first round of UFC 48—and Tim is 6'8" and 265 lbs.

There is also the issue of pressure. Brock Lesnar carries a great deal of weight on his mammoth shoulders going into this fight. He has virtually zero experience, yet everyone and their dog has huge expectations for him. He has a tremendous amount to prove in this fight, and that could play a huge factor in determining the outcome.

Frank Mir has nothing to prove. The expectation is that he will lose. But Mir is no joke, and not to be underestimated.

My guess is Mir will go into the ring a lot calmer than Lesnar, and that can only work to his advantage. It is well known that it is a mistake to fight with emotion, as anxiety and nerves will rapidly wear you down.

All that being said, my guess is Lesnar has been heavily instructed in submission defense. If this is the case, I expect him to attempt to ground-and-pound Mir—possibly defeating him, but more likely dragging out a decision win based on aggressiveness and take-down points.

Lesnar might just prove too powerful for Mir to submit. Mir could find himself becoming increasingly discouraged and possibly intimidated by the sheer power of Lesnar. Overwhelmed, he could lose heart and simply lay on his back, trying to survive Lesnar's assault.

However, my prediction is Frank Mir via submission in the second round. Brock Lesnar will be a force to be reckoned with down the road, but I believe he's in over his head with Mir this early in his MMA career. Unless pile-drivers are a legal move in the UFC, in which case I might be forced to change my prediction.

I make predictions among friends on every UFC, and I have yet to find myself flip-flop on a prediction as much as I have over this fight. I am stoked to see this fight and believe it will do a lot for the UFC. I look forward to your comments and predictions. Let's hope it's a good one.

Fedor Emelianenko Still a God: How the UFC is Trying to Screw MMA's #1 Heavyweight.

TheToddfather — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 09:19:08 -0500

It seems every article writer and blogger enjoys beating on Fedor Emelianenko’s rank of numero uno.

There seems nothing but questions and negative press over whether he currently belongs at the top. So I’m going to add my two cents (more like 75 cents) on why I just don’t buy it.

Few would argue that Fedor used to be the top heavyweight, and anyone that knows anything about the sport believes he is the greatest heavyweight of all time.

But these days, almost everyone weighing in with an opinion says he is not deserving of his current title as God of the Heavyweights. Some say he’s over the hill, and hasn’t faced any top-ranking heavyweights in the last four years. Others claim he’s dodging talent, and refused the UFC’s offer in order to protect his legacy and virtually unblemished record—in seven years, no one has stopped Fedor, except a doctor.

So let’s examine some of the arguments that Fedor doesn’t deserve his position at the top.

Dana White weighed in, saying Fedor was not even among the top five heavyweights. But as Randy Couture pointed out, Dana would be singing a different tune if Fedor had signed with the UFC. Dana White’s big mouth often gets more press than it deserves, but what does Fedor say?

“Dana talks a lot and uses words lightly. Let Randy Couture fight me. Allow this fight that everyone wants to take place. Me, Randy, and MMA fans all over the world want it. The only obstacle is Dana. People want to see this fight and I want to meet him in the ring. I have the greatest respect for Randy and have always admired him. I am also thankful that he has such a high opinion of me.”

Randy also seems anxious to fight, just not under the UFC banner. So both fighters want to meet in the ring, but only Dana stands in the way. If he thinks Fedor is overrated, and wants to shoot his mouth off, then do what it takes to back your opinion up. Let it happen with a cross-promotion fight, and let the chips fall where they may.

Dana basically called Fedor and his lawyers a bunch of unreasonable crazies. Fedor’s comments barely see the light of day, but what he has to say seems closer to the truth, given the UFC's reputation in dealing with its talent.

According to Fedor, the UFC contract states that:

"I can't leave undefeated. I can't give interviews, appear in films or advertising. I don't have the right to do anything without the UFC's agreement. I could do nothing without the OK from the UFC.

I didn't have the right to compete in combat sambo competition. It's my national sport. It's the Russian sport, which in his time our president competed in, and I no longer have the right to do so.

There were many such clauses. The contract was 18 pages in length. It was written in such a way that I had absolutely no rights while the UFC could at any moment, if something didn't suit them, tear up the agreement. We worked with lawyers who told us that it was patently impossible to sign such a document."

Call me crazy, but I wouldn’t sign that either if I were Fedor. This also shows this was less Fedor running from real competition, and more the UFC—especially Emperor Dana—using Gestapo-type tactics on the world’s greatest fighter.

It also makes me respect Couture’s position a little more. And lastly, it makes me—a guy formerly convinced the UFC’s acquisition of Pride was great for the sport—pray another Pride rises from the ashes and humbles the UFC.

Dana is also the first to point out this is a business. Yet how can he argue a cross-promotion fight is bad business? Is it that it really is bad business—or maybe is it because the UFC monopoly would be undermined?

Make the fight happen Dana—then, if Couture doesn’t honor his contract, it’ll be on his conscience, not yours—if you have one. It’s good for business, and it’s good for the sport. Period.

So enough talk of Dana White, as now I'm feeling slimy and dirty.

I've seen many people adamant that Fedor hasn’t faced quality heavyweights in the past four years, and is currently dodging quality opponents.

(Here’s where I worry about MMA fans that were around during the PRIDE years. When Pride was around, there were MMA fans and there were UFC fans. Obviously, UFC fans had little knowledge of PRIDE fighters, who now hold two of the five UFC belts. Some have had a poor showing in the UFC, like Cro-Cop-Shogun, while others have adapted well. We shall see what 2008 brings.)

I think we've already seen evidence that Fedor is not dodging talent. So what of this notion that he hasn't been properly tested in recent years? Who is a heavyweight that we can compare Fedor’s 'questionable' rank to? The obvious answer is Randy Couture.

In the past four years, Randy has four wins and three losses—two to Liddell, and one to Vitor Belfort. His wins consist of a revenge win against Belfort, Mike Van Arsdale, and his spectacular wins over Gonzaga and Sylvia.

No one can deny that Couture fears no man, and will fight anything you put in front of him. He often pulls off the impossible. But his record in the last four years is far from perfect, and the level of quality of his opponents is also somewhat questionable.

We still don’t know if Gonzaga is deserving of his rank, since his incredible win over Cro-Cop (a Cro-Cop hardly worthy of the name) literally launched him up the ladder. And Sylvia seemed begging for someone to step in and exploit his boring-ass defensive game plan.

But props to Couture for solid wins over both. Make no mistake, I place Couture easily in the top three heavyweights on Earth right now. But we are not examining whether Couture deserves respect—so let’s look at Fedor’s record in the past four years.

As you probably know, Fedor is undefeated in the last four years. He has 11 wins and one no-contest. But what kind of quality are these opponents?

He defeated Kevin Randleman, who although probably not being top-ten caliber, dropped Fedor on his head in highlight fashion and the man barely blinked. He has a pair of wins over Mark Coleman. Nogueira, Cro-Cop, Mark Hunt and Lindland—to name the big names of his four-year winning streak.

Now, maybe the Lindland fight was a bit of a joke with such a large weight discrepancy. Randleman is also perhaps not worth mentioning, and we could get into nitpicking wars over Coleman and Hunt. But three of these gents have one thing in common that is important to consider when looking at Couture vs Emelianenko.

Alongside his victories over everyone he’s ever faced, he has victories over these very decent wrestlers, among others. It is also certainly worth noting here that Couture defeated Randleman at UFC 28 in 2000.

Couture, however, lost to Josh Barnett at UFC 36 in 2002, another wrestler. And Barnett lost to Cro-Cop three times, and he carries a win and a loss to Nogueira. Fedor has a win over Cro-Cop and two over Nogueira—with, of course, losses to neither.

Confused yet? All of this serves as evidence that, if nothing else, Fedor is deserving of his rank over Couture. Not to mention overall records of 27-1 for Fedor and 16-8 for Couture. In my humble opinion, Fedor should be placed directly at the top of the world’s heavyweights.

Oddly enough, I've even recently seen Fedor's age pop up as an argument against his status at the top. But Fedor is some 13 years Couture's junior, and few would attempt to argue that he does not belong at or near the top of the ladder.

In the end, however, I think I would predict this fight differently depending on where it took place. In the UFC Cage, I would have to give a slight edge to Couture, given certain Pride fighter’s struggle in the octagon. Couture would be right at home in the cage, where Fedor would most certaily be out of his element. Not to mention the differences in rules. But in the Pride-style Ring, I would give it to Fedor, hands down.

In closing, Dana White can shove his "not in the top five" comment directly up his ass.

And that’s my long-winded rant...