Bleacher Report - Articles by Scott Harris

Breaking: Brady Out For Season

Scott Harris — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 13:37:00 -0400

Some breaking news coming out of Yahoo! Sports.

According to Michael Silver, two Patriots team sources has confirmed that QB Tom Brady will miss the rest of the 2008-2009 NFL season with a tear of the anterior crucial ligament in his left knee.

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ms-bradyoutforyear090708&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

2008: The Year That Killed The Preseason -- Hopefully

Scott Harris — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 02:26:28 -0400

In the football history books, 2008 will be forever remembered as the year that killed the preseason—hopefully.

The reasoning behind the preseason, in football and in most other sports, has always been a bit lacking. The most practical reason in the NFL is that in-game experience is the only real way to evaluate rookies.

Training camps can only tell you so much because how a player performs against a practice squad is going to be a lot different from how they perform against a first-team defense. And, more or less, rookie evaluation is the main reason why owners have resisted calls from Roger Goodell to shorten the preseason and expand the regular season to 18 games. After what has been happening to teams and their key players in the last three weeks, it is difficult to say whether the owner's status-quo stand will wither.

On Monday, the New York Giants received word that Osi Umeniyora, the teams' next Michael Strahan, would have to have season-ending knee surgery because of an injury suffered against the Jets. The injury brings up serious questions about whether or not the Giants can compete in an offense-heavy NFC.

San Diego also suffered on defense, as Pro Bowl defensive back Shawn Merriman announced that he had two torn ligaments in his left knee that would require surgery. Chad Johnson, the Cincinnati Bengals' loudmouth but exceptionally talented first-slot wide receiver, partially tore a labrum in his left shoulder against the Lions that could require season-ending surgery if the shoulder pops out before it is fully rehabilitated. A Chad Johnson at half-strength is not a good sign for the Bengals, surgery or not.

And those injuries were just the big ticket items. From Baltimore to Seattle to Tampa Bay, key players have been carted off the field with toe, back, neck, knee and foot injuries.

Yet, despite the high-value players being injured, few teams have something, if anything, to show for it. Most teams with quarterback questions solved them after Week Two play. Rookie receivers like Dominik Hixon and James Hardy didn't randomly explode in Week Three; they played consistently well enough in Weeks One and Two.

For most other offensive and defensive positions, coaches are unlikely to get a sense of how good a player is playing against scrambled first and second team lines. All there seems to be left are overpriced, boring games with absolutely no significance at all. Other columnists have covered the topic of how preseason wins and losses, and even player performance, do not foretell regular season success.

Roger Goodell's oft unmentioned proposal to NFL owners calls for the preseason to be shortened to just two games with the regular season expanding to eighteen. Two more regular season games benefits the NFL, the owners and the fans in plenty of ways.

The additional revenue from meaningful games will be a boon across the board. The NFL gets more revenue to boost itself, the owners get more revenue from fans coming to the stadiums, the fans get to cheer on their team in actual games and the networks get boosted advertising dollars.

Although it may in some ways take away from the week-to-week do-or-die parity that has become the hallmark of the modern NFL, many teams and owners should appreciate not having their entire season thrown down the tubes because of a key injury late in the season. Certainly, two more games allow bottom-feeding teams to get additional shots to get into the playoffs. Who knows what last season's playoffs would have looked like if the Giants got as hot as they did two games too early (or if the Patriots stumbled in the last game of the season instead of the second playoff game).

Most of all, though, the fans are demanding more football and the NFL should give it to them. The preseason has become mostly obsolete and this year proves how harmful meaningless games can be.

To put it more simply, there is no excuse to have key defensive or offensive players down for the year because of the preseason. If the owners have an ounce of sense, they will act on Goodell's proposal after the 2008-2009 season.

Preseason Week Three Wrap-Up

Scott Harris — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 16:25:36 -0400

The injury bug bit hard in the third week of the preseason across a bunch of assumed playoff contenders. There is now a good amount of worry for fans of a few teams about whether or not these so-called "meaningless games" have put a huge dent in their playoff hopes.

We'll see if it turns out that way. In either case, the 2008 preseason will probably ignite the debate about Goodell's proposal to expand the season to 18 games.

The 49ers have announced that J.T. O'Sullivan will be the starter for the regular season, which is probably just as good as starting anyone else.

The real question that emerges from this contest is whether or not the Bears' defense is ready for the prime time. They've given up more points than any team other than Washington, and the first-team defense played a decent amount of the game.

San Francisco is not expected to be a powerhouse team this year, so Bears fans have something to worry about...SAN FRANCISCO 37, CHICAGO 30.

It has been pretty hard to evaluate the Patriots', offensively, since Brady has been held out of all of the preseason games, but the defense is simply atrocious. The first team played the first half, and in that first half, the Patriots allowed three drives of 76, 73, and 71 yards—and two kickoff returns for touchdowns.

Some would argue that the defense helped keep New England's unbeaten regular-season mark intact, with stunning stops against Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York. Does anyone believe, from what we've seen so far, that they'll be doing the same this season?

McNabb had a good game, so did the rest of the Eagles team...PHILADELPHIA 27, NEW ENGLAND 17.

Matt Ryan was named the Falcons' starting quarterback, which is good news for Atlanta fans since he's going to be a Pro Bowler one day. He played very well. Vince Young, on the other hand, struggled.

Both defenses played well. It is hard to pin down, from the preseason games, Atlanta's season prospects, since they've jumbled their starting offense and defense a lot...ATLANTA 17, TENNESSEE 3.

Tony Romo and the Dallas offense got off to a good start against Houston, and with an easy schedule throughout the regular season, we can expect Dallas to match last season's success. But regular season success has never been a problem for Romo, it's the playoffs.

Kyle Kosier is out for a couple of weeks. Houston is still as bad as everyone expects them to be...DALLAS 23, HOUSTON 22.

Opinions about Green Bay's prospects, post-Favre, have either been that they are playoff-bound or doomed to the bottom of the division. To be honest, their preseason performance makes it hard to nail anything down definitively.

Aaron Rodgers was good, but the Packers defense wasn't. Denver is probably not going anywhere this season with Cutler at the helm, if preseason performance is any indication...GREEN BAY 27, DENVER 24.

Someone should tell Cleveland that they're supposed to be playoff contenders, because their preseason performance certainly does not allude to that fact. Derek Anderson got a concussion, Jamal Lewis pulled a hamstring against the Giants, and Brady Quinn was simply terrible in the former's absence. Detroit didn't play that well either...DETRIOT 26, CLEVELAND 6.

The Giants are the biggest victims of the injury bug this week. They lost Osi Umenyiora for the entire season, probably the most valuable played on their defense. The pass rush that made the Giants' defense so fearsome last year is pretty much lost.

There is talk of getting Strahan out of retirement, but even if they do, Tuck and Strahan are not as powerful as Tuck and Umenyiora.

There was a lot of hype about the Jets' performance in the game, but ignore it, it was the Giants' offense that really fell down. You certainly have to wonder about the defending Super Bowl champs...NEW YORK (AFC) 10, NEW YORK (NFC) 7.

Jason Taylor is down and probably won't play in the opener against the Giants. Washington's defense has been the reason that they're often mentioned as eventual playoff contenders, but that perception is rapidly evaporating.

I'll reserve judgment because they've played well in their first three games. I don't believe Carolina is as good as they were in this game, so I'll reserve judgement on them too...CAROLINA 47, WASHINGTON 3.

Miami showed some signs that they could be a franchise in recovery, with Ted Ginn Jr. finally exposing some of his potential, but there is simply no chance they'll be a team of any significance this season. And against Kansas City, a team equally as unimportant, who really cares about the outcome of this game...MIAMI 24, KANSAS CITY 0.

Jacksonville isn't anyone's sleeper pick, but they've been solid the whole preseason. Tampa Bay has not been solid. Neither one of these teams are convincing anyone that they'll be in the playoffs, but the former has a fairly easy schedule, so they could reasonably get to 10 wins.

Garrard wasn't bad and neither was Garcia, otherwise, a fairly unremarkable game...JACKSONVILLE 23, TAMPA BAY 17.

Carson Palmer is hurt. Chad Johnson is hurt. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is hurt. The offensive line is straight-up terrible. The secondary is talented, but untested. Cincinnati is headed for a collapse, and their preseason performance, particularly in this game against New Orleans, proves it.

Things could get ugly. New Orleans wasn't spectacular, but they got the job done...NEW ORLEANS 17, CINCINNATI 0.

Minnesota is my sleeper pick for the NFC. I think they can go toe-to-toe with every other team in the conference and win. We'll get a chance to see that during the season, but in the preseason, it's not clear that is panning out.

Jackson needs to stay healthy and so does Peterson. Pittsburgh's defense played brilliantly. Otherwise, no big stories...PITTSBURGH 12, MINNEOSTA 10.

Arizona will be good this season. Their preseason games kinda give that away, if you can judge teams by the preseason. Oakland will be bad this season. Note to Ken Whisenhut: Matt Leinart is not ready for the NFL...ARIZONA 24, OAKLAND 0.

St. Louis and Baltimore. What did I write about Miami and Kansas City again?...ST. LOUIS 24, BALTIMORE 10.

I really don't know what to think of Buffalo, and the Indianapolis game didn't help. They should have won, because Manning didn't play, and they did, but what does that tell us?

J.P. Losman looked good, but his stats were padded when Indianapolis pulled some of their first-team defense at the end of the first quarter. On the other hand, I think Indianapolis fans have a founded worry about Peyton Manning. He can't play at all?...BUFFALO 20, INDIANAPOLIS 7.

San Diego and Seattle were both lukewarm in their prime-time game. Neither first teams stayed in the game very long. Both are supposed to be playoff contenders, but they certainly have not appeared as such so far this pre-season. By the way, how good is the San Diego defense without Shawn Merriman?...SAN DIEGO 18, SEATTLE 17.

STAT OF THE WEEK

The winning teams of preseason Week Three scored a total 374 points, the lowest aggregate total for a preseason week since Week Two of 2004.

NFL's Top Six Draft Flops and Steals

Scott Harris — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 03:41:21 -0400

On Sept. 4, the NFL will launch its 2008-2009 season. By that date, rosters will have been cut down to a 53-man Active/Inactive roster–down from the 80 they're allow to carry through the preseason.

Invariably, the 27 players who get cut are mostly made up of draft picks in the later rounds or players that showed modest potential in college but just couldn't make plays to stay on the team.

A full 94 percent of players drafted in the seventh round aren't playing football two years into their careers. That number drops to 88 percent for those drafted in the sixth round and 70 percent for those that go in the fifth round. AllFourQuarters.com will soon be launching a feature that indexes the success of each team's draft picks.

In the last 10 NFL drafts, though, a good number of players have emerged from the later rounds to become Pro Bowlers that were critical players in postseason runs. A good number of players from the first round have turned out to be bubkis. From the 1997-2007 NFL Drafts, we take a look at the top six "steals" and the top six "flops."

STEALS

6) Al Harris, Cornerback, Green Bay Packers

Al Harris was drafted in the sixth round (169th overall) of the 1997 NFL Draft by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He spent his entire rookie season on Tampa Bay's practice squad and was released in 1998.

Harris showed flashes of Pro-Bowl talent in Philadelphia, but really launched his career in 2003 as a starter for Green Bay. He intercepted Matt Hasslebeck in the 2004 NFC Wild Card game and ran it back for the winning touchdown.

In 2005, he was part of a Packers pass defense that was No. 1 overall, allowing just one touchdown in coverage. In 2007, he was selected to play in his first Pro Bowl. He's become one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL.

5) Matt Hasselbeck, Quarterback, Seattle Seahawks

Matt Hasselbeck was selected in the sixth round (184th overall) of the 1998 NFL Draft by the Green Bay Packers. Since then, he hasn't done anything particularly remarkable other than be a three-time Pro Bowler and lead his team to a Super Bowl.

Seattle has won the NFC West four years in a row, and there's no stopping him yet—he set career highs in 2007. Not that Green Bay was in desperate need of a quarterback or anything, but whom would you pick? Aaron Rodgers?

4) Brian Westbrook, Running Back, Philadelphia Eagles

Brian Westbrook was selected in the third round (91st overall) of the 2002 NFL Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles. He was drafted behind NFL greats like Maurice Morris (backup RB for the Seahawks) and DeShaun Foster (backup RB for the 49ers). Westbrook won the Walter Peyton award in 2001, is a two-time Pro Bowler, and helped lead the Eagles to Super Bowl XXXIX.

He averages almost five yards per carry and has almost as many rushing touchdowns (27) as he does receiving (23). He's the all-around threat you need your RB to be.

3) Devin Hester, Cornerback, Chicago Bears

How many of you would have picked Cedric Griffin? Jimmy Williams? Tye Hill? Never heard of them? Don't worry, neither has anyone else, but they were CBs picked ahead of Devin Hester in the 2006 NFL Draft.

Heading into his third season, Hester already holds the NFL record for most kick-return TDs in a season, and he's pretty much the only returner that would make NFL teams rather have the 40-yard-line penalty for kicking the ball out of bounds than have it land in his arms.

He's basically been a Pro Bowler since he stepped on the field. It's early in his career, but, barring any catastrophic injuries, Hester should have a fine life.

2) Donald Driver, Wide Receiver, Green Bay Packers

Donald Driver was selected in the seventh round (213th overall) of the 1999 NFL Draft by the Green Bay Packers. Since then, he's been to three Pro Bowls with four-straight seasons of over 1,000-yards receiving.

He's never averaged less than 10-yards per catch. In the 2008 NFC Championship game, Driver juked the Giants into giving him free land to score a 90-yard go-ahead touchdown. He and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are the only two players to be drafted in the seventh round and go to the Pro Bowl.

1) TOM BRADY, Quarterback, New England Patriots

Tom Brady is a sure-shot Hall of Famer. His name will be in the mix whenever you debate the best NFL Quarterbacks of all time. Did you know he was also drafted in the sixth round, 199th overall?

There is virtually no end to the list of things that Tom Brady has accomplished in the NFL, but here's the highlights: three Super Bowls, two-time Super Bowl MVP, four Pro Bowls, highest single game and single-season quarterback rating, most passing touchdowns in a season, and most passing yards in a season.

By the way, he's has also dated and impregnated one of Hollywood's hottest actresses and now dates a supermodel. Your life is nowhere as great as Tom Brady's.

FLOPS

6) Tim Couch, Quarterback, Cleveland Browns

Aren't No. 1 picks supposed to be automatic Hall of Famers? I mean, you have four months to review the guy. The Browns thought otherwise, and selected Couch in the 1999 NFL Draft, a favor he would return by spending four years ruining any hopes the team had of being successful.

Just how bad is Couch? He was signed by the Dolphins in 2007—the 1-15 Dolphins—as a third-string QB and was cut. Third string. 1-15 Dolphins. Cut.

5) Yatil Green, Wide Receiver, Miami Dolphins

To be fair, Yatil Green was hit with phenomenally bad luck after being touted as one of the NFL's next great receivers. On the first day of his rookie season's training camp, Green ripped his quadriceps muscles, ATL, and the cartilage in his right knee.

He recovered, got pumped for the new season, came back to training camp, and tore the same ATL on the first day again. Good thing they didn't give him a three-year, $4.5 million contract or anything. Green tried a comeback with the Jets and the Raiders but retired soon after.

4) Ryan Leaf, Quarterback, San Diego Chargers

"Ha," says Leaf, "What are the Colts thinking, picking that Manning guy, I'm a finalist for the Heisman Trophy!" Leaf threw two touchdowns and 13 interceptions in his first nine regular-season games and won only four games in three years. I'm pretty sure I would have been a better NFL quarterback. He does not play football anymore.

3) Courtney Brown, Defensive End, Cleveland Browns

After a decent rookie season, Brown totally fell apart, at least health-wise. In the space of 12 months, he injured his back, neck, knee, foot, hand, and, believe it or not, his ear.

In the next three seasons, he'd play in only 26 games and record only eight sacks. For a first-overall pick in the 2000 NFL Draft, not that impressive. You almost have to feel bad for the Browns. Couch and Brown? Tough to swallow.

2) Ron Dayne, Running Back, New York Giants

Can you imagine sacrificing your multi-million dollar NFL career to eat at McDonald's every day? Dayne was selected by the Giants in the 2000 NFL Draft and most commentators instantly put the team as a Super Bowl contender. "Thunder and lightening," they said, calling upon Tiki Barber's speed and Ron Dayne's power.

They literally drafted a guy to run two yards, and he couldn't even do that. Who knows what he's doing now.

1) Michael Vick, Quarterback, Atlanta Falcons

What did Vick accomplish for the Atlanta Falcons? Average TD-INT ratio (71-52), average quarterback rating (75.7), oh, and he destroyed the franchise. He was an arrogant loudmouth.

In the six seasons Vick was the Falcons' starting quarterback, the team had two winning seasons and collapsed after he left. There is no top-flight draft pick so responsible for wrecking havoc on a franchise more than Vick, as he did when he was finally put in jail for illegal dog fighting.

At least the Chargers are Super Bowl contenders. Aren't the Browns mentioned as playoff contenders?

Scott Harris is also the Managing Editor of AllFourQuarters.com, an NFL stats and analysis blog.

Will Brett Favre Put the New York Jets in the Playoffs?

Scott Harris — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 04:24:45 -0400

Brett Favre's 2005 and 2006 seasons painted him as a quarterback on the decline.

In 2005, Favre recorded his worst ever quarterback rating and, as a result, lead the Packers to their worst season since he had taken up the position.

Although the Packers rebounded in 2006, going 8-8 and just missing a playoff spot due to a tiebreaker with the New York Giants, Favre still struggled.

At the end of the two seasons, he was off his averages by 15 points in quarterback rating, three percent in completion percentage, almost a full yard in yards per pass completion, and had thrown, between 2005 and 2006, a whopping 47 passes for interceptions and only 38 passes for touchdowns.

Surface statistics ignore the fact that the Packers, in general, were a poorly performing, generally talent-less, injury-riddled team.

Favre lost his best receiver and running back, Javon Walker and Ahmad Green, at the start of the 2005 season.

Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera, Pro Bowl guards, left the Packers to test the free agent market and, consequently, Favre was sacked 24 times in 2005 and 21 times in 2006, among the highest numbers in the NFL.

In the end, how good could a quarterback really be if teams don’t fear an explosive running game, don’t cringe when a ball is thrown to a No. 1 receiver in single coverage, and find a way to put him on his back after every pass play?

The question was partially answered in the 2007 season when Favre had, arguably, his best season since 1996.

With the late emergence of Ryan Grant, the Packers' franchise had done a 180-degree turn.

Running game?

Check.

Good receivers?

Check.

Good offensive line?

Check.

The Packers went 13-3 and were given a decent chance to advance to the Super Bowl.

If not for a terrible pass from Favre in overtime against the New York Giants, they may have gotten there, and with the way the Patriots played in the Super Bowl, who knows, they may have won, too.

That’s neither here nor there, though.

It seems that Favre still has it, as long as he isn’t playing on a team full of rookies or has-beens.

The Jets don’t have a particularly remarkable lineup at wide receiver.

Laveranues Coles was once supposed to be the team’s deep threat, but injuries have kept him down and will probably continue to keep him from being any more than a solid second or third-slot receiver.

Jerricho Cotchery is a decent wideout and will probably match or improve upon his impressive numbers from last season.

Brad Smith, who used to be a backup QB, is a reliable third-slot receiver and, while he certainly shouldn’t be on anyone’s fantasy radar, I think he’ll be a good for short gains.

Other than that, unless some rookies step up, Favre downgraded significantly from the Packers, in terms of receiving corps talent and ability. Though, between the Jets and the Vikings, the two teams rumored to be most interested in giving Favre the starting job he wanted, the Jets were definitely the better pick.

Luckily for the Jets, a five to 15-yard passing attack can work if you have a solid running game. It puts safeties and corners back in zone coverage and keeps them from trying to blitz the quarterback. Behind a vastly improved offensive line, the Jets' running game should be significantly better this season than it has been recently.

Thomas Jones didn’t have a terrible season last year, actually, his only problem was that the Jets seemed to think he could not get himself into the end zone.

In 338 rushing attempts and passing receptions, Jones never coughed the ball up to another team. Combine that with a decent yards-per-rush average and a 1,000-yard effort, and you can do the math. Jones should be a decent RB that will give Favre some time to breathe in the pocket.

If there is one aspect of the Jets that was improved more than quarterback, it was the offensive line.

Although it is tough to predict how the unit will perform with so many new players, the additions of Brandon Moore and Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca should bolster a developing Nick Mangold and D’Bricksahw Ferguson.

I’d give Jones another half-yard or so onto his average just because of the line.

So, what does that all add up to?

Favre is still very much limited by the receiving corps. If the problem in Green Bay was that he only passes as well as his receivers run routes and catch, it might be a long season for the Jets’ passing attack.

Favre, in his history, has not performed well in systems that involve five-yard pass after five-yard pass. He’s a big-time quarterback and he’s going to want to make big-time plays.

He doesn’t have time to nurture relationships with developing rookies because he’ll be formally retired before they get starting spots.

Without a doubt, the passing game will be formulated around Favre’s wants and needs, so we’re all going to be left to wonder whether or not he can squeeze big plays out of Coles and Cotchery.

I think the results will be mostly mixed, and I would not expect Favre to repeat last season’s success in New York.

In New York’s first four games, we’ll probably be able to see whether they are a solid team or simply a bad team with a Hall of Fame quarterback.

The Jets play Miami, New England, San Diego, and Arizona. They should win in the first and fourth game. They can win the third game. They won’t win the second. If they can go 3-1 to open the season, their playoff chances aren’t terrible.

Let’s say the Jets can take two of those four games. They'll lose to the Patriots and the Chargers. They are 2-2. Favre gives them a chance to be the favorites in nine or so of their remaining games, playing at six home games against subpar teams to finish up the season.

Does 9-7 or 10-6 get the Jets into the playoffs? Probably not in the AFC.

The games most likely to determine whether or not the Jets get into the playoffs will be Week Seven against Oakland, Weeks Nine and 15 against Buffalo, and Week 12 against Denver. They need to put away these teams in order to get the conference wins they’ll lose against the Chargers and Patriots.

But, if the Jets open the season with losses to every AFC team under the sun, there’s no amount of magic Favre can throw to save the season.

With so many changes to the roster, the Jets are a huge question mark coming into the 2008 season.

Will Favre return to his 2005-2006 woes under the pressure of a second-rate receiving corps?

Can the receivers step up with a better quarterback?

Will the offensive line protect Favre and the running game?

But most of all: Can Favre gives new life to the offense so that they can win the games the patchwork defense cannot?

These are all legitimate questions to ask. If pressed to judge right now, they go 7-9, maybe get an eighth or ninth win, but definitely miss the playoffs.

Scott Harris is also the Managing Editor of AllFourQuarters.com.