Bleacher Report - Articles by Hollis Warren

I'm in the Mood...To Make Bold NASCAR Predictions That Is

Hollis Warren — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 22:39:00 -0500

I don't know if it has anything to due with the fact that March Madness is heating up, but all day, I have been in the mood to do an entry where I made a few outrageous predictions for this Sunday's Kobalt Tools 500 at Atlanta.

At the top of that list? Mark Martin would end his long losing streak, and Joey Logano would pick up his first career top 10 finish.

Well, Martin ran away with the pole, so picking him to win on Sunday would be kind of obvious. Bugger. Logano struggled in practice, and was the slowest car in qualifying (that made the race). Double bugger. Back to square one, I guess.

But I will make an outside-the-box prediction for a winner on Sunday. How about Juan Pablo Montoya? He and Brian Pattie have formed great chemistry in a short period of time, and seeing how they are no longer being anchored down by Dodge engines, the sky is the limit.

He's run well at Atlanta in the past, and remember was a contender at Texas last fall until David Gilliland decided to use his car as a weapon. So there you have it: JPM wins his first stock car race on an oval this Sunday. Guarantee you it won't happen hahaha.

As for any other surprises, I could say that I expect another strong run by Gilliland and the TRG car, but translating success from Las Vegas to Atlanta will be easier said than done. You have to give that team credit for their 14th place, lead lap finish last week.

Recall that this 71 car deal was put together at the last minute, and that they have no solid plans beyond Bristol in two weeks. But even with the DNQ at Daytona, they could still be in the top 35 after the first five races are in the book. At that point, Kevin Buckler will have to keep sending his car to the track for the guaranteed prize money.

On the tire front (since we have to keep a constant eye on Goodyear), there was a tire test at Atlanta in January, so don't expect any failures or complaints from unhappy drivers, as was the case last year.

Tony Stewart and others had reason to gripe a year ago because that tire was literally atrocious. It singlehandedly turned one of typically most exciting races of the year into one of the biggest stinkers. Drivers couldn't even race in the bottom groove for extended periods of time on slightly old tires.

If I do have a concern about the tire, it would have to be the fact that two of the four drivers providing input at the test were Sam Hornish and Scott Speed. Not to knock them, but I would want somebody more proven in a stock car giving feedback to the Goodyear engineers.

Thankfully, Greg Biffle and JPM were also there.

So I'll go ahead and predict the tire Goodyear brings holds up well on Sunday, and we have the biannual exciting Atlanta race. Unlike my Juan Pablo Montoya to win prophecy, this one has a strong chance of happening.

In case you missed it...

Hollis Warren — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 21:08:00 -0500

The Helio Castroneves tax evasion trial began on Monday in Miami, which I am sure many of you did not realize unless you are truly an IndyCar fanatic. After all, the only time the series gets any mainstream attention is when Danica Patrick is exploiting her sex appeal to keep a ride/showing off a tramp stamp in SI or when Castroneves is dancing. Partially blame Tony George and his goons for not getting his other top drivers more exposure for their on-track accomplishments.

If found guilty, it could send the popular Indy 500 winner to the slammer for a while (ah America...where an ordinary person goes to jail for not paying Uncle Sam their due, but half of the Obama Cabinet gets away with it). Star witnesses scheduled to make an appearance include Roger Penske and Jimmie Johnson. I don't know why Johnson will be testifying, while it is obvious that Penske, as Castroneves' boss, can shed some light on his employee's character.

From what I've seen released by various media outlets, the trial could last up to six weeks. The 2009 IndyCar season begins in four and a half weeks on the streets of St. Petersburg after an offseason that has seemingly lasted an eternity (that is a story for another time and place, but at least give the IRL credit for stretching the season out a few more weeks in 2009). A couple months back, Penske announced Aussie Will Power will stand in for Castroneves should Helio: a. not be cleared yet or b. found guilty. Once the case is dismissed, Castroneves would climb back aboard the #3 Penske Dallara Honda. So even if the charismatic Brazilian is found innocent on all charges, getting him back behind the wheel for the start of the season and a run at his first IRL championship will be a challenging proposition.

I seriously hope Helio is found innocent, because I believe he is a great guy. But if he knowingly did not pay the proper taxes on income that was allegedly diverted to offshore accounts, then he should be sent to prison (my overall negative opinion of the American tax system aside, we all still have to follow the same rules). Remember Wesley Snipes some time back? Another high profile, high tax burden citizen who happened to not pay up. Willie Mays Hayes got three years out of that transgression.

In the scenario that Castroneves is able to come back at some point this season, I wonder what Penske will do with Power? Will had some strong runs in his first IRL campaign a year ago, including a fifth at Chicago to close out the regular season. And he's not an oval guy at heart. I think the Captain will be hard pressed to let Power walk, especially if he performs well in whatever races he may get to run. If this were March 2008 and not March 2009, we would probably be hearing the get rid of Ryan Briscoe chants from many Team Penske supporters, but after a sluggish start, Briscoe was a surprise in the second Penske car a year ago. I think he is safe for the time being, unless he completely tanks early in 2009.

Shelby 427: Mechanical Problems Continue in NASCAR

Hollis Warren — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 18:22:00 -0500

I can not remember the last time I've seen so many mechanical breakdowns over a two race stretch.

Say what you want to about the teams pushing the envelope in order to gain an advantage, but like an onion, the more layers you peel in this mystery, the more it stinks.

Teams like Hendrick Motorsports and Roush Fenway Racing just don't have mass mechanical problems or part failures too often, and the fact that they have on back-to-back weekends is disturbing.

This epidemic reeks of a problem that can be traced to the people selling parts to the teams.

Yes, I know the new tire combination is producing faster, more sustained lap speeds at Vegas (and 9,500 RPM entering the turns on many cars), but these top teams have assembled some of the best mechanics in the world.

For the past several years, they have more than proven to be capable of building engines that are durable.

Just look at the fact that last year, no one retired from either the spring California or Las Vegas race due to a mechanical problem. Here is an incomplete list of the victims the last two weeks:

California

Engine related problems: Team Red Bull (practice and race), Michael Waltrip Racing (practice), Earnhardt Jr., Martin, Almirola

Transmission related problems: Johnson, Earnhardt Jr.

Las Vegas

Engine related problems: Kenseth, Ragan, Team Red Bull (practice), Michael Waltrip Racing (practice), Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch (practice)

Transmission related problems: Martin (car jumped out of gear, causing engine to blow on over revving)

Note that Hendrick has already admitted that their rash of engine failures at California was due to part problems, and that the Toyota contingent believes their engine issues on Friday were due to some kind of problem with the camshaft.

Let's hope this epidemic gets cured expeditiously.

It's shame seeing contenders, backed by some of the best engine builders in the business, having these early season maladies.

Shelby 427 Weekend Preview

Hollis Warren — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 21:24:00 -0500

There are many reasons why Las Vegas race weekend is one of the favorite stops for fans, drivers, and everyone part of the traveling show that is the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series.

Gambling, shows, relatively warm weather considering tomorrow is the last day of meteorological winter, endless strip clubs, and oh yeah, pretty good racing. Ever since Bruton Smith tore up a relatively flat track a few years ago and installed higher, progressive banking, the action at Las Vegas Motor Speedway has improved each year.

I think we all remember that memorable duel to the finish in the Nationwide race two years ago between Jeff Burton and Kyle Busch, which ended with checkers for Burton and the wrecker for Shrub.

We are sure to see plenty of side-by-side action both tomorrow and Sunday once the top groove comes in, and I expect that to happen early in the Nationwide event. There's talk about Kansas being in line for a second date in the near future, but if any track deserves an additional race weekend, it is this one outside of Sin City.

I love how this event is 427 miles long. The race is named for the company owned by Carroll Shelby, a former F1 driver and longtime American car builder. Shelby has designed vehicles for Ford and Dodge, and is probably most famous for his involvement in designing the sleek Cobra sports car in the early '60s.

The 427 comes from the cubic inch size of the motor that is most notorious for powering the vehicle (note also that the 427 was used in the early years of NASCAR by Ford before the manufacturer pulled out of the sport in the late 60s).

So for those of you who feel 500 miles is too long, but 400 miles not necessarily long enough (especially at some of the faster tracks like Atlanta or Charlotte), maybe this is the wave of the future: 400 and some odd mile-long races.

Let's just hope none of the crew chiefs or engineers forget about the extra 18 laps when calculating fuel mileage, but considering how they all have the FOX network feed in their pit box showing the ticker with the number of laps to go, I would hope that is not going to be an issue.

Fuel mileage on the other hand, probably will be. I have one of those eerie feelings that we are due for a fuel mileage finish on Sunday.

The big story of the day at the track had to be the fact that the Busch brothers swept the front row.

Of course, this is their home track, and thus probably one of the few times a year Little Busch doesn't hear more boos than cheers out of the stands. As for the Blue Deuce, is it to early to say they are back as a threat?

I'll hold off on making that an official observation for a few more weeks. Speaking of Rowdy, he will go the route Brian Vickers took at California, dropping to the rear due to an engine change.

Jimmie Johnson will move up and inherit the pole position when the green drops on Sunday, but it's not all bad for the 18 team: they get the first pit stall selection, the pole award money, and the track record.

Speaking of Kyle's newly minted track record, I find it amazing that these cars can travel around LVMS in 29 seconds flat.

Darrell Waltrip made a good point about how the cars were turning Atlanta-like lap times today, and remember AMS is banked 8 degrees higher in the bottom groove of the corners.

Plus, it's about 200 feet longer than LVMS, which probably doesn't make much of a difference.

I think the fact that 12 drivers ended up breaking Kasey Kahne's old record lap time can be contributed to several factors: a relatively cool day allowing for maximum grip, a track with relatively new pavement, a prevailing wind down into turn 1 for much of the session, and the new Goodyear tire which has a lot more grip than the slicker tires brought to Vegas a year ago.

Kudos to Goodyear and the drivers who tire tested at LVMS (Stremme, Martin, Vickers, Edwards) for picking out what appears to be a racy tire. Let's just hope they hold up well during long runs on Sunday.

Auto Club 500: Now That Was a Good Race

Hollis Warren — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 22:14:00 -0500

I know I am always giving Auto Club Speedway a bad rap, but all things considered, tonight's event was a decent race.

The Matt Kenseth/Jeff Gordon battle during the last green flag run was exciting, which was a welcome change from the typical protocol with 10 or 15 laps to go (which goes like this: driver X has pulled out to a three or four second lead, NASCAR desperately searches for their French friend Jacques Debris, and throws the caution just so people will not turn off the TV before the race is over).

Maybe the COT has some potential as far as providing good racing on intermediate tracks after all, but let's see what Vegas and Atlanta have in store the next two weeks before developing that hypothesis into a theory.

I also noticed that while clean air was still crucial, the driver at the front of the field was not pulling out to as large of leads as they were last year, but maybe that's because Kyle Busch wasn't in the lead tonight. Rowdy has a tendency to blow everyone out of the water just for the hell of it.

A few attaboys:

1. The fans for showing up and probably filling the stands to 85-90 percent capacity. That was a major surprise, and I'll eat my words from earlier in the weekend.

Expect strong crowds as usual at Vegas next Sunday too. While Atlanta is a heck of a track, they often struggle to sell out due to weather or market oversaturation, so I am optimistic a good crowd will be on hand the weekend of March 6-8.

And after the off week, Bristol and Martinsville are sure to draw the fans for some good ol' fashioned short track beating and banging.

2. All the teams that struggled last year (especially on intermediate tracks) were strong tonight.

I know it's only one race, but these teams should be feeling good heading into the next two races. On that list: Michael Waltrip Racing, Penske Racing, Juan Pablo Montoya (if JPM is going to run 11th, there is no excuse for Truex to finish 27th), and—to an extent—Richard Petty Motorsports.

All four of RPM's cars were out to lunch at the beginning of the race, but came on at the end.

Kahne got a lap down, kept good track position in regards to the leaders, eventually received the lucky dog, and rebounded for a solid 12th place finish.

Unfortunately, the damage had already been done for the 19, 43, and 44 teams—they all finished in the 20s.

Speaking of being out to lunch, what the hell was wrong with RCR tonight? Once again, it's only one race and we'll have to come back and reevaluate truly how much progress these squads have made in a couple months.

3. Goodyear. They deserve an attaboy any time we make it 500 miles without any tire issues. It looked like Harvick blew a tire late in the race, but it turns out that was an engine failure. This ends his NASCAR-record 81-race streak of running at the checkered flag.

4. Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon. All off-season, everyone was pegging the 18, 48, and 99 as the championship front-runners.

Kenseth and Gordon are obviously out to prove that last season's pedestrian performances were a fluke, and they are still amongst the best in the business.

Look for Gordon to end that long victory drought very soon. I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen at Las Vegas—a place he has won at in the past.

5. Tony Stewart. I have a feeling I am going to be eating crow in a few months about inferring the No. 14 team would struggle in 2009 (I recall a 20th place points prediction).

NASCAR's California Weekend

Hollis Warren — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 20:56:00 -0500

After all that goes into Speedweeks, California is a big letdown. Not only is the track 3,000 miles and three time zones away from home, but the racing is not what I would call the best NASCAR has to offer.

Plus, the locals seem to have soured on the track, once again proving that the greater Los Angeles area has too many other things going on to care about professional sports. When you factor in the economy, I'm sure there will be plenty of empty seats on Sunday afternoon.

It is rumored that Robin Miller said only 21,000 tickets had been sold for the Auto Club 500, and while that number is probably being lowballed by an open wheel writer bitter at the fact some IRL races have trouble drawing that many people, I wouldn't be surprised if the stands are only half full (or half empty, however you look at it).

Tapping into my Schadenfreudic side here, I would love nothing more than to see a bunch of empty seats on Sunday. This is still Rockingham's date in my book.

It's obvious that the fans don't like this track, and it does not draw enough people to support two Sprint Cup weekends. We can only hope Brian France realizes this, and when it comes time for Kansas to get a second date as is rumored, he moves a race from California and not Martinsville or some other track that, you know, actually provides good racing.

Visiting southern California after a taxing 10-day extravaganza in Daytona is no picnic. If I am a team member or driver, the last thing I want to do after pouring my heart and soul into trying to win the Great American Race is traveling all the way across the country for an event that is not well supported by the people who make it possible, the fans.

Granted, there aren't too many places close to North Carolina that have suitable racing weather in late February, but Rockingham never posed too many problems (in fact, the average high on Feb. 22, which would be the date of the race if it were still held there, is 60). Of course, NASCAR hastily left that once prized facility.

They could risk running Atlanta after Daytona, but knowing the past history of March events at AMS, it would probably rain. Phoenix and Vegas aren't that much closer than California, so going there for race two shouldn't be an option.

I've been saying for a couple years that NASCAR should head from Daytona to Texas, and then move on to a mini-west coast swing through Vegas, Phoenix, and maybe California, assuming it still has two dates.

Then, they would come back and run through the southeast in late March and April, once any chance of cold weather had seemingly evaporated. Just give the fans and teams something less boring and depressing than California following the 500.

We all want to keep the momentum and excitement from Speedweeks going to the second race of the season, but there is virtually nothing about Auto Club Speedway and southern California making this a possibility.

I'm sure TV ratings will suffer this week, based on the track and the fact many people were upset that NASCAR turned the Daytona 500 into the Daytona 380. Plus, the race will be going up against the Academy Awards in prime time.

But you know what: us REAL fans will watch. It may be far from perfect, but NASCAR racing is still the greatest in the world.

I guess you know you've got it bad when you are willing to watch 500 miles of less than exciting racing on a Sunday afternoon and are actually looking forward to doing so.

I admit to not liking California, and typically would not get excited for this race other than due to the fact it signals the start of the "real" season, but the testing ban throws a curve into this weekend's festivities.

Who has done their homework over the past three months? Who hasn't? How will the start-up teams perform against the Big Four and other large operations?

It's obvious that Hendrick, Roush-Fenway, JGR, and RCR will come out and assert the upper hand as usual, but I am interested to see how strong Kasey Kahne and the RPM cars will be, if Kurt Busch and Penske are on the track to regaining their form, where Stewart-Haas stands on their intermediate track package, and what Team Red Bull has in store for the new year.

These "second-level" teams all have many unanswered questions entering the season, and with the series running a large portion of its events on intermediate/downforce tracks, this weekend will be somewhat of a litmus test. Vickers is already off to a strong start, winning the pole for Sunday.

Just a word of warning: the race time is 6:15 p.m.. Ah, NASCAR never failing us with their late green flag times.

I'd understand 4 p.m. since this is a race on the left coast, but this 500 miler won't get going until 3:15 California time. And it probably won't finish until 10 back east.

If this does one thing, it will make the crew chiefs be on top of their game as the track transitions from day to night.

The transition won't be as drastic as it would be in the October heat, but I believe the fall California race is going to be run completely in the daytime, so that won't be a factor when the Chase race in Fontana rolls around.

Auto Club 500 Starting Lineup

NASCAR's Perfect Storm: Three Decades Later

Hollis Warren — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 18:15:00 -0500

CBS footage from the last lap of the 1979 Daytona 500

As sports fans, I am sure each of us has a short list of famous (or infamous) moments that we wish we were either a) alive to see; b) old enough to remember; or c) able to be there in person.

I know the top of my list includes the 1982 Stanford-Cal game, 1991 World Series, Super Bowl III, and the 1979 Daytona 500. The 21st annual Great American Race, held on Feb. 18, 30 years ago, is still talked about to this day. How can you not talk about a race that may be the most defining of NASCAR's immense growth since the early 1980s?

As of Feb. 18, 1979, no 500-mile auto race had been televised flag-to-flag. Not even the more prestigious Indianapolis 500. And now a bunch of southern rednecks were going to do battle in their taxicabs for 500 miles at Daytona International Speedway.

The race had plenty of interesting story lines.

Cale Yarborough was going for his fourth consecutive Winston Cup championship in 1979, like Jimmie Johnson is in 2009 (note that in the late '70s, Riverside was still the first race of the season, so any preseason talk of Yarborough repeating his crown may have already subsided). Of course, you had the stars of the '60s and '70s, such as Petty, Yarborough, Pearson, Baker, Parsons, and the Allison brothers, going up against the drivers who would eventually dominate the sport in the '80s and early '90s.

Including some guy named Earnhardt making his first 500 start. Ironically, Earnhardt would lose his life 22 years later on the exact day, making it another Daytona 500 that has come to define NASCAR. There were also Labonte, Rudd, Bodine, and Gant. This race would also mark the first use of an in-car camera, a technology we all have come to know and love.

NASCAR and CBS would be helped by Mother Nature on this late-winter Sunday, when a snowstorm blanketed much of the eastern third of the country. In the dawning years of cable and 15 years before the Internet became wide-stream, that left snowed-in residents very few entertainment options. Many, I'm sure, turned on the Daytona 500 out of curiosity, became too interested to turn off the television, and were hooked for life after the post-race fireworks.

Buddy Baker started on the pole in Harry Ranier's Oldsmobile, but suffered an early engine failure. Donnie Allison took control of the race from there, even after losing control of his car early, which forced Yarborough into a spin. Yarborough, driving his famed No. 11 for Junior Johnson, lost two laps making repairs.

No Lucky Dog in these days, folks, but Yarborough still made up both laps and was in contention for the win going into the last lap. Yarborough tried to pass Allison, but was blocked. The two cars made contact going into turn three, and, as they say, the rest is history.

Yarborough and Allison quickly emerged from their wrecked cars and engaged in words and fisticuffs, before being joined by Allison's older brother Bobby. Ken Squier's call of the melee lives on in the memory of many to this day. What often gets lost in the shuffle, however, is that Richard Petty, over a half lap behind at the time, benefited from the leaders crashing to pick up his sixth Great American Race victory, with Jaws Waltrip right on his tail.

Another legend, A.J. Foyt, was third, the last car on the lead lap. Dale Earnhardt was eighth, a lap down.

In front of a national audience for the first time, NASCAR had arrived. People were hooked to this sport where southern men who talked and looked funny decided to duke it out in the infield after the race. Blue-collar excitement for a blue-collar nation. TV deals with fledgling cable channels TNN and ESPN soon followed. Big name sponsors and droves of fans were not far behind.

Throughout the '80s, the sport grew. It grew even more in the '90s and early 2000s. Even the current plateauing of the sport's popularity does not make much of a dent in the expansion witnessed since this race.

Unfortunately, with that immense growth, NASCAR has seemed to lose its identity as a good ol' boy sport in recent years.

Sponsors want groomed, intelligent, well-spoken individuals representing their company. And there is nothing wrong with that. But under Brian France and this era of sponsorship domination, political correctness has become the name of the game. We essentially have 43 corporate suits, with a few exceptions. And that very well could be driving some fans away.

While the sport now has fans of all nationalities, races, economic classes, and education, it remains a largely blue-collar sport. Any way you look at it, the fans want to be entertained, and while there is plenty of entertainment from the racing, they still want to enjoy colorful personalities. There's something about other people's dirty laundry that is always intriguing to the general public.

What is so wrong with that?

I'd rather have a couple NASCAR drivers engage in a shoving match in the garage area than driving 90 MPH in a 35 MPH zone with my unrestrained kid (Jason Richardson, NBA), murdering people (Rae Carruth, NFL), or taking performance-enhancing drugs (too many to mention, MLB).

So, a note to the sanctioning body and sponsors: Let the drivers be themselves.

Drivers: Be yourself. The fans will thank you for it, and who knows, another Allison/Yarborough-like incident could provide another boom in popularity.

Matt Kenseth Wins Rain-Shortened Daytona 500

Hollis Warren — Sun, 15 Feb 2009 19:15:00 -0500

Congrats to Matt Kenseth, the DeWalt team, Jack Roush, and all of Roush-Fenway Racing for picking up your first Daytona 500 victory!

A few notes:

-Let me just say, as a quasi-Roush and Kenseth supporter (I really haven't had a favorite since RW retired, but if someone was pointing a gun at my head to name my favorite driver/team in Cup, I'd say any of the Roush-Fenway guys), I am really happy to see Matt Kenseth and Jack Roush take home their first 500 victory.

Those were tears of joy folks, and shows just what winning this race means in stock car racing. Who said Kenseth was an emotionless robot? Even robots cry I guess.

-I do not blame NASCAR for calling the race so quickly. The radar/Weather Channel report showed the rain continuing until at least 9. In that scenario, drying would have taken until at least 11. And remember, everyone has to be in Fontana on Thursday.

What I do blame them for is pushing back the start time of the Great American Race more and more each year. Sure, they want to finish the biggest race in the sport under the lights, but remember when a Sprint Cup race would roll off before one? Screw the west coast. Wake up early or don't watch.

-A.J. Allmendinger running well = hopefully more TV shots of Lynne Allmendinger.

-On the subject of AJ, a note to George Gillett, Ray Evernham, and Richard Petty: run him full-time!

-DW made a good point about the tire wear, especially on Jeff Gordon's right front: it appeared to be a camber issue. You can't fault Goodyear if teams want to push it too far, especially when many teams had no issues at all. But let's not exonorate them for their recent and frequent flubs, which I am sure we will be seeing more of in 2009.

-Congrats to Kyle Busch for a classy interview after the big wreck. In the past, he might have stormed off and denied an interview request, but he was cool, calm, and didn't make any overtures along the lines that he wanted to kill Junior and/or Vickers.

I can't say the same for Dale Jr. under the red flag, when he basically blamed everyone but himself for two really dumb pit mistakes that cost his team dearly. Makes me wonder how he passed his drug test. But back to my point, I really hate it for Rowdy and the 18 team, but they will be back with a vengenance at California next Sunday.

-As for the wreck, here is my perspective: Junior made a brazen move down low to pass Vickers, knowing that he had to get around him to be in position for the free pass, and with rain looming, there was no time to be patient.

Vickers came down to block, totally legal as long as it doesn't involve coming across into the other car, and as Junior was coming back above the yellow line, he tapped the 83's left rear corner panel. Intentional or not? A tough call.

But based on the day Junior was having, I think he was just pissed off at that point, and didn't feel like taking any crap. Totally intentional, and it makes race control look like they are playing favorites when they penalize Jason Leffler five laps for basically doing the same thing to Steve Wallace on Saturday, but do not penalize their golden child for it on Sunday.

But then again, when has the sanctioning body not played favorites in this sport's history?

-Note to Chris Myers: enough of the Dick Bergeren age jokes, and especially enough of ringing the Hollywood Hotel bell after making one.

-Digger cartoons? Digger gear? You've got to be kidding me. NASCAR on FOX must play NASCAR fans for dumb, and unless the racing fuel fumes are causing brain damage, that is not the case. But then again, most of the fan base does support an overrated, underperforming, clearly spaced out driver who is only considered an elite driver because of who is daddy was.

I'd love to see Digger take on the NFL on FOX Robot in a battle to the death, with hopefully both of them biting the dust. I've said it before, and will say it again, the Caddyshack gopher is a million times cooler than FOX's Digger impostor.

ARCA Driver Matt Hawkins Dies at Age 21

Hollis Warren — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 20:36:00 -0500

Matt Hawkins, an up-and-coming driver in the short track ranks, who won in his ARCA debut at Iowa last year and was impressive at Rockingham (mixing it up with the likes of Logano, Schrader, Stenhouse, and Annett), died this morning, apparently due to some kind of gun-related incident. He was 21.

The Canton, Ga., native was considered by many to be one of the best lower series prospects not yet snatched up by a major driver development program.

David Smith Motorsports had him ranked as a five-star prospect. Please keep the Matt Hawkins family in your thoughts and prayers.

http://www.arcaracing.com/news.cfm?contentid=7652

51st Daytona 500 Preview

Hollis Warren — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 12:26:00 -0500

When the Cup cars take the green flag at California next Sunday, it will mark the 50th anniversary of one of the greatest moments in stock car racing's history: Lee Petty holding off Johnny Beauchcamp to win the first running of the Daytona 500. At the time, Daytona was viewed as a monster that would be too large and too fast for stock cars to handle. Only Indy cars had ever raced on an oval as large as 2.5 miles, and no one had seen a track with 31 degree banking in the turns. But Big Bill France was a visionary, and what he saw was a track, a race, that could come to define his fledging sport. A half century later and nearly 17 years after his death, boy was he right. This race IS what NASCAR is all about. One driver's life will change forever tomorrow afternoon. He will wake up on February 15, 2009 as simply a NASCAR driver, and go to bed as a Daytona 500 champion.

51ST DAYTONA 500 STARTING LINEUP:

1. 1 Martin Truex Jr. (Bass Pro Shops/Tracker Boats Chevy) 188.001 MPH, 47.872 s
2. 5 Mark Martin (Kellogg's/Carquest/Cheez-It Chevy)
3. 24 Jeff Gordon (DuPont Chevy)
4. 18 Kyle Busch (M&M's Toyota)
5. 14 Tony Stewart (Office Depot/Old Spice Chevy)
6. 83 Brian Vickers (Red Bull Toyota)
7. 48 Jimmie Johnson (Lowe's Chevy)
8. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya (Target Chevy)
9. 20 Joey Logano (Home Depot Toyota)
10. 11 Denny Hamlin (FedEx Express Toyota)
11. 8 Aric Almirola (Guitar Hero World Tour Chevy)
12. 96 Bobby Labonte (Ask.com Ford)
13. 2 Kurt Busch (Miller Lite Dodge)
14. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevy)
15. 9 Kasey Kahne (Budweiser Dodge)
16. 99 Carl Edwards (Aflac Ford)
17. 36 Scott Riggs (Red Bank Ale and Quail Outfitters Toyota)
18. 41 Jeremy Mayfield (All Sport Toyota)
19. 98 Paul Menard (Quaker State/Menard's Ford)
20. 44 A.J. Allmendinger (Valvoline Dodge)
21. 26 Jamie McMurray (Crown Royal Ford)
22. 33 Clint Bowyer (Cheerios/Betty Crocker Chevy)
23. 47 Marcos Ambrose (Little Debbie Ford)
24. 12 David Stremme (Penske Racing/Verizon Dodge)
25. 07 Casey Mears (Jack Daniel's Chevy)
26. 31 Jeff Burton (Caterpillar Chevy)
27. 55 Michael Waltrip (NAPA Toyota)
28. 00 David Reutimann (Aaron's Toyota)
29. 77 Sam Hornish Jr. (Mobil 1 Dodge)
30. 19 Elliott Sadler (Stanley Tools Dodge)
31. 7 Robby Gordon (Jim Beam Toyota)
32. 29 Kevin Harvick (Shell/Pennzoil Chevy)
33. 6 David Ragan (UPS Ford)
34. 43 Reed Sorenson (McDonald's Dodge)
35. 16 Greg Biffle (3M Ford)
36. 39 Ryan Newman (US Army Chevy)
37. 34 John Andretti (Window World Chevy)
38. 82 Scott Speed (Red Bull Toyota)
39. 17 Matt Kenseth (DeWalt Tools Ford)
40. 21 Bill Elliott (Motorcraft Ford)
41. 28 Travis Kvapil (Golden Corral Ford)
42. 78 Regan Smith (Furniture Row Chevy)
43. 66 Terry Labonte (Window World Toyota)-past champion's provisional

EIGHT TO WATCH:

Martin Truex Jr.: Truex is on the pole, and if the past few years are any indication, that is bad news. But the car was strong in the draft on Thursday, and DEI always gives their drivers a good piece for the restrictor plate events. EGR needs a good run out of the gate to shut up any doubters that they are in it for the long haul.

Kyle Busch: Wild Thing won his qualifying race on Thursday, and pretty much dominated the 500 a year ago before falling short to at the end. He also won 2 of the other 3 restrictor plate races a year ago. If anyone is going to take down the GM army, it's probably going to be the 18 bunch.

Tony Stewart: The big story of Saturday down at Daytona was the fact that Ryan Newman cut a tire, wrecked, and collected his boss in the mess. Tony has been strong in his first week as an owner/driver, but I expect him to still run towards the front even if he goes to a backup car.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior dominated much of his Duel before having to make an unscheduled pit stop under green. He still rallied to finish 7th, and should be a force to be reckoned with along side of his Hendrick teammates. This is absolutely critical year for the 88 team, and winning the 500 would be a good start.

Jimmie Johnson: Chad Knaus still has technically not won a Daytona 500 as a crew chief, as in 2006, he was sitting at home suspended. What better way to start the season than with a win and to show people that you mean serious business in the strive for a record-breaking fourth straight championship?

Mark Martin: Mark came so close two years ago to winning this race. Who wouldn't want to see this guy win the Daytona 500? Martin has an even better chance than in 2007 this time around in Hendrick equipment. A fast car, talented driver, and plenty of strong teammates in the draft to help will all be major advantages for the 5 team when the green flag flies on Sunday.

Kurt Busch: KB showed just how much he has matured in this race a year ago, by pushing then-teammate Ryan Newman to victory. He rallied from an early race spin at the hands of Robby Gordon on Thursday to have a solid finish, and while the Penske cars aren't usually strong in single car runs, they really suck up well in the draft. Busch has a strong shot at giving Roger Penske back-to-back 500 victories.

Kevin Harvick: The RCR cars have not been heard from this week except for Harvick's victory in the Bud Shootout, where he came out of nowhere. Last year, they kind of rode around at the back until the sun went down, but were strong at the end. The 07, 29, 31, and 33 may not be up front on lap 100, but I can guarantee you at least one of them will be in contention for the win. And Harvick, the 2007 winner, probably has the strongest chance at doing so.

DARKHORSE:

David Ragan: Ragan has been strong on the restrictor plate races ever since moving up to Cup two years ago, and was running towards the front of the first Duel race until a bunch of wild events took place in the waning laps. What better place to pick up your first career victory than in the most prestigious race of the year? He would be the first Ford to take the Great American Race since Dale Jarrett in 2000.

AND YOUR WINNER...

Jeff Gordon: I will come out and say I decided on Gordon as my 500 pick over a month ago, but did not become sold on the pick until I saw how well he ran on Thursday. After a disappointing 2008 season, this team is out to prove that they are still one of the elite groups in the garage. Only Richard Petty and Cale Yarborough have won more than three Daytona 500s, but I expect Jeff Gordon to join that elite crowd come Sunday evening. He will have plenty of competition, not only from his teammates, but also from the other GM players, the JGR Toyotas, Penske Dodges, and Roush-Fenway/Yates Fords, so it won't be easy by any stretch of the imagination.

THREE THINGS TO WATCH FOR:

Tires: Ryan Newman had a tire explode today, destroying his second car of Speedweeks. Goodyear also confiscated tires from several teams due to perceived problems. Hopefully, we don't have Goodyear's incompetence showing up every 25 or 30 laps into a green flag run tomorrow.

The Big One: Typically, the first half or three-quarters of the race have been fairly clean in recent years, but everyone gets a little chipper during the final run to the checkered. Can you blame them? Look for as many as six or seven cautions in the final 50 laps, and I'm sure we'll see at least one wreck that includes more than ten cars.

Strategy: When the final 20 laps roll around and it is time for that last pit stop, what do you do? Two tires for track position? Four tires for handling and speed? I am sure we will see some crew chiefs rolling the dice with two tires down the stretch. This is one of the few races of the season where you can say points don't matter, so it is okay to take a few risks to pick up a career-defining victory.

A Proposal For NASCAR: Move The Twin 150s to Thursday Night

Hollis Warren — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 19:00:00 -0500

Let me start by congratulating Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch on their victories this afternoon at Daytona in the Gatorade 150s. I am debating whether to stay up until 12:30 to catch the replay, in exchange for being a zombie at work in the morning.

Being a zombie on Friday the 13th? Sounds like fun!

Also, congrats to A.J. Allmendinger, Regan Smith, Scott Riggs, and Jeremy Mayfield for racing their way into the Daytona 500. It's good to see the small teams having some success. It appears that Mayfield's team, Tommy Baldwin Racing, and NEMCO (even though they did not qualify) all have the resources to be semi-competitive in 2009.

For those of you who love to jump on Joey Logano, take that haters. The kid finished fourth in the first duel. I know I was harsh on him after the race at Irwindale last month, but I think he deserved it in that situation.

However, unless Sliced Bread walks on water, he's not going to be good enough for some people. I guess they are just jealous of the level of life-time success Logano has had, even thought he just turned 18. I'm telling you right now that he will have a Jeff Gordon-like rookie season, with a few runs that take your breath away and a few moments that make you scratch your head, but watch out in 2010.

In recent years, NASCAR has made a concerted effort drive many of the Daytona races' laps under the lights. I've always enjoyed the night restrictor plate races, and more so in summer.

It sure beats racing in the 95-degree sauna that is Florida.

Granted, February can bring its cold snaps to the Sunshine State, but night racing is still a popular option during Speedweeks with the Bud Shootout, truck race, and conclusion of the 500, all run under the lights.

Here's an idea: Move the Twin 150s to Thursday night.

Ever since I was a little kid, the second or third Thursday of February has been filled with school and now work. In my lifetime, I think I have watched the qualifying races for the Daytona 500 live a grand total of one time.

And that was in college, when you may go to class three or four hours a day and are supposed to spend the rest of the time "studying" (this tidbit was apparently never passed along to most college students). Even then, Thursday afternoon was a popular time for the wonderful three-hour labs at my university.

Now that I have embarked out into the real world, work interrupts my date with the Gatorade Duels.

I read on the message boards how some people either cut work to watch the races or follow along on the Internet instead of actually doing something constructive. Maybe I take my job too seriously, or like it just a tad too much, but I would never think of doing either of these.

Sure, every 15 or 20 minutes I would step away from my lab work and momentarily check the leaderboard. If I was smart, I would get the NASCAR channel on my XM Radio and listen to the races. But damn, were those last three or so hours of work difficult today.

With so many other events at Daytona now run under the lights, I think it is time for NASCAR to make the Twin 150s a night race as well. All of the excitement of drivers facing their last shot at qualifying for the biggest race of the year and a guaranteed quarter million dollars—at night.

At the same time, it would allow more people to watch the races live instead of having to crank up the DVR, TiVo, or VCR and/or being about as effective as a typical government employee by following along while supposedly working. I would start the first duel at 7 p.m. EST, so even our West Coast friends could get home in time to see at least one of the races.

And judging by the typical time frame, the events would still be over by 10:30 or so, allowing viewers to still get to sleep at a reasonable time.

I know what you are saying. "What about the NCAA tourney?". That creates two days of work where a lot of people aren't actually working.

But for the sake of argument, about three-quarters of the workplace probably has an interest in that. Unfortunately for me and many other people in the workplace, there aren't a lot of co-workers that are NASCAR fans who might share the same joy of the new season.

In other NASCAR related events, I'd like to offer kudos to Rusty Wallace for bringing back a paint scheme that I loved as a kid. I'm sure that was one of the reasons your then-eight year-old-blogger picked RW as his favorite driver back in 1993.

Aside from the darker shade of gold, doesn't this look familiar?

2009 Camping World Truck Series Preview

Hollis Warren — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 18:51:00 -0500

For the 2009 season, I am pegging several drivers as championship contenders.

At the top of that list are obviously last year's two main players, Johnny Benson and Ron Hornaday Jr.

But who else could have a major say in who takes home the trophy at Homestead in November?

If the Truck Series has taught us anything in the past, it is the fact that these title battles usually come down to the last lap of the season.

As for some other drivers to watch, I think Todd Bodine will climb back into the championship battle, and once again look for strong efforts from Rick Crawford, Matt Crafton, and the HT Motorsports duo of David Starr and Terry Cook.

Look for Colin Braun to be vastly improved, and don't put it past Mike Skinner winning a second series title. Randy Moss Motorsports (as well as HT Motorsports) are sure to get some of the resources from Toyota that would have went in Bill Davis Racing's direction had they not ceased operations.

The major change in the Truck Series for 2009, aside from the sponsor name, has to be the fact that only five crew members will be allowed over the wall at a time, I guess in an effort to save the teams a little bit of money.

Some other changes include the fact that only twelve team members will be allowed to make the trip to the track on a race weekend, and teams cannot change tires and fuel the truck during the same pit stop. And finally, teams will not be able to run a new engine in any more than three consecutive races. This final rule will also be in place for the Nationwide teams in 2009.

Assuming the other measures work in the Trucks, I'd like to see them extended to Nationwide to help out with escalating costs. On to my Top 10 predictions:

Projected full-time teams

1 Johnny Benson (Red Horse Racing)
4 Ricky Carmichael/Kevin Harvick/Ryan Newman? (Monster Energy Drink)
5 Mike Skinner (Randy Moss Motorsports/Exide/Toyota Tundra?)
6 Colin Braun (Con-Way Freight)
7 J.R. Fitzpatrick (Daytona)/TBA (The Racer’s Group/Kevin Buckler)
10 James Buescher (MaxxForce Diesel)
13 Johnny Sauter (ThorSport Racing)
14 Rick Crawford (Power Stroke Diesel)
15 Shane Sieg (at least the first four races) (Ballew Motorsports)
16 Brian Scott (Albertson’s)
17 Timothy Peters (Tahoe Smokeless Tobacco?)
23 Jason White (GunBroker.com)
24 David Starr (Zachry Holdings)
25 Terry Cook (Harris Trucking)
30 Todd Bodine (Germain Racing)
32 Chase Austin (Trail Motorsports)
33 Ron Hornaday Jr. (Camping World/VFW/Longhorn Smokeless Tobacco)
40 Mike Bliss (first six races)/TBA (Westerman Companies)
51 Kyle Busch/Shane Sieg (Miccosukee Resorts)
60 Stacy Compton (Wyler Racing)
74 Larry Foyt (Daytona)/TBA (Cope/Keller Racing)
81 Tayler Malsam (One Eighty Racing/Randy Moss Motorsports)
88 Matt Crafton (Menard’s)
89 Mike Harmon (first two races)/TBA (Lafferty Motorsports)

2009 Camping World Truck Series Schedule

Top-Ten Points Finisher Projections:

1. Ron Hornaday (33)

Hornaday fell just seven points short of his fourth title a year ago, and considering how strong this team runs at all types of tracks, they have to be considered the favorite, especially now that Bill Davis Racing has closed shop. Ron is probably still fuming over how close he came in 2008, so look for a hungry team in 2009.

2. Todd Bodine (30)

There were grumblings over the offseason that Germain would not run this team full-time unless sponsorship materialized. I guess they realized Papis is probably going to break the bank wrecking in Cup—ha ha! Anyways, I don't see how they can keep Todd off the track as long as he is in the title hunt, and he should be as usual.

3. Johnny Benson (1)

JB was smart in moving to Red Horse Racing for 2009. It's almost as if he sensed BDR's days were limited at the end of last season. The defending champion will be working with a new team this year, but he will have the benefit of many of the same people working on his trucks, including crew chief Trip Bruce. Going back-to-back is not out of the question by any means.

4. Mike Skinner (5)

Skinner, like Benson, was a victim of BDR suddenly closing shop. He actually did not find a ride in the scarce Truck Series landscape until two weeks ago, when the serie's most famous owner gave him a call. Randy Moss and David Dollar's team was a mid-pack performer in the GM camp, but moving to Toyota and bringing in a championship caliber driver should do wonders for their performance in 2009.

5. Rick Crawford (14)

The Mobile, Alabama driver has not won in each of the past two seasons, but generally speaking, they have been two of Crawford's better years in the dozen he has spent with Tom Mitchell's operation. Look for the 14 team to continue to be at the head of the Blue Oval Brigade in 2009, and a return to victory lane should be expected.

6. Colin Braun (6)

The former sports-car star's first season in NASCAR had its ups and downs, and as the 20-year old Texan moves into his second year behind the wheel of the Con-Way Freight F-150, his performance should be much more consistent. Braun has immense talent and the support of the Roush-Fenway operation, so there is no reason for him not to capitalize and pick up his first victory.

7. David Starr (24)

David has been one of this series' most consistent performers over the years, but you have to wonder exactly why this will be his fourth team in five seasons. While his performance has slipped slightly in the past two campaigns, aligning with HT Motorsports, which should see more resources coming down the pipe from TRD, will allow him to continue being extremely competitive and a victory lane threat.

8. Matt Crafton (88)

Well after eight years of trying, Crafton finally found victory lane a year ago, and matched his career-best points finish (fifth). Obviously, expectations will be high around the ThorSport shop entering 2009, as Matt finally got the monkey off his back. This team may not have the most resources in the series, but they usually get the most out of what they do have.

9. Terry Cook (25)

Terry Cook returns to Jim Harris' operation, where he spent the 2007 season and end of last year. After three very strong seasons at the beginning of the decade, Cook has merely been average over the past four or five years. However, with such few full-time drivers on the ticket and the fact he will be working with a familiar group, Cook should do just enough to crack the top 10.

10. James Buescher (10)

The pride of Plano, Texas is just 18 years old, but is consistently ranked as one of the brightest prospects in NASCAR. The fact that he won the ARCA race at Daytona this past Saturday and ran fairly well in six Nationwide races a year ago shows just why. Buescher is inexperienced, but has aligned himself with a strong team. It will be crucial for him to lean on veteran teammate Rick Crawford. If he performs up to his ability, winning Rookie of the Year should be almost a lock.

NOTE: I didn't include our boy Rowdy because I have no idea exactly how many races he is running with Ballew Motorsports in 2009, although I am sure it is in the neighborhood of 15-20.

Coming tomorrow: Allen Iverson Career Memorial "Practice?!" Day at Daytona International Speedway, as all three series hit the track for practice on Wednesday.

It will be a day of firsts: the first official drafting practice of the season for the Cup teams as they prepare for Thursday's Duels, as well as the first practices of the season for both the Trucks and Nationwide.

I'll be here with any important developments, and if there are none, I may do a Twin 150s preview of some kind.

Daytona Weekend: This Isn't Good News...

Hollis Warren — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 18:50:00 -0500

The preliminary entry lists for this weekend's Truck and Nationwide openers were released today, and while the Nationwide field is strong, only 38 Trucks are tentatively scheduled to make the trip down to the beach (I want to take this chance to congratulate NASCAR.com for again changing their format, thus making it impossible to find the entry lists).

If I remember correctly, that is one more truck than a year ago, but looking at the teams entered for Friday night's opener, there are probably a good half-dozen potential start-and-parkers.

Combine that with the fact this race is at Daytona and on Friday the 13th, and we may be lucky to have 10 trucks around at the end, haha.

We knew the Truck Series was going to be in trouble entering 2009. It will be interesting to see if they can even draw 30 at California next week. And you can blame the economic downturn all you want, but car counts in Nationwide have been acceptable, and will likely continue that way.

NASCAR simply does not pay enough in purse money for what I, and many other people, believe is their most competitive series. They also don't do a good job of promoting the series and the excellent array of young and old talent participating.

SPEED deserves some blame on that front as well. I guess they are too busy appealing to the losers watching Pimp My Ride and Pinks to care about actual racing.

How else do explain the difficulty teams have in attracting sponsorship (for only a couple million dollars I might add) for a series with great racing, even when the economy is doing well?

If it weren't for Craftsman and the manufacturers, the Truck Series might have bitten the dust a long time ago. And in reality, only Toyota still is heavy into the Trucks from a manufacturer's standpoint.

Let's just hope the folks at Camping World can come in and revitalize this series. They haven't been around the sport for long, but have done a lot in terms of car and race sponsorships to get their name out there.

Sponsoring a series is a different beast, as they will have to do their best to match Craftsman's magnificent efforts to promote the men and machines of the Truck Series.

It would be a shame to see NASCAR's incompetence and utter lack of care let this great form of racing die.

Don't get me wrong, we may see some fields with only 25 trucks in 2009. But the top of the series is still extremely strong, with names such as Benson, Skinner, Crawford, Hornaday, etc. leading the charge.

And losing Jack Sprague and Ted Musgrave, while once great drivers in the series, may be addition by subtraction. Neither was too spectacular a year ago.

Coming tomorrow, my full 2009 Camping World Truck Series Preview....

2009 Nationwide (on your side) Series Preview

Hollis Warren — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 18:53:00 -0500

Well, we made it through weekend one of stock car Speedweeks without anyone getting gravely injured. Both the ARCA and Sprint Cup guys in the Bud Shootout were beating and banging each other in a three-wide draft at 190 MPH this weekend.

The only difference: the Sprint Cup guys are talented enough to do it, some of the ARCA guys couldn't drive a go-kart. Seriously, what is going to take for them to stop racing at restrictor plate tracks?

Someone getting killed? Beheaded? Larry Hollenbeck ought to have his license stripped for that T-bone hit on Patrick Sheltra that forced both of them to the hospital. Here's a guy with a lot of experience, including some (scarily enough) in Nationwide, and he still comes in at high speed and T-bones a car a good five seconds after it had crashed.

Hollenbeck is like 60 years old, so maybe he just had a senior moment. I don't know.

Anyways, today we take a look at the 2009 Nationwide Series. I'll be honest: this is the most excited I've been about NASCAR's second series in a few years.

Here's why:

1. Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards: Wild Thing and Mr. Ed started a little rivalry at Bristol in Cup competition last year, and will be the only two Cup regulars running full-time in Nationwide. Obviously, they are the title favorites and are sure to cross paths during these second-tier races where they may be inclined to take more risks.

2. The series' first trip to Iowa: I love this track, and I have a feeling both Nationwide and Truck competitors will be feeling the same way when they make their inaugural visit to the facility this summer.

3. Returning to Montreal, but not Mexico City: Keeping the international flavor in the series should be interesting, and both races in Canada have had their share of excitement. So did the four in Mexico, but the trip was too far and too dangerous for the teams to make. Montreal is just a stone's throw over the US/Canada border.

4. Some extremely talented new blood: Both Justin Allgaier and Michael Annett have been praised for their accomplishments in lower series, and at 22, get a chance to prove themselves in good rides against the best drivers in the stock car world. They won't disappoint.

5. Cup drivers running fewer races: While the series will still have a strong Cup presence in 2009, the economy is affecting sponsorships and many Cup drivers are at least cutting the number of moonlighting appearances in Nationwide.

2009 Nationwide Series Schedule

----

Given the reasons listed above, the Nationwide Series deserves close attention in the upcoming year, even with ESPN botching the coverage. While the number of new sponsors is low, it appears as if the series will have roughly the same number of full-time outfits in 2009, so aside from the start and parkers at the back of the field, competition should remain strong amongst the top 25 or 30 teams.

Currently, this is planned to be the final season with the old car before the Nationwide COT debuts in 2010, although the sluggish economy and ban on testing may have a lot to say about that timetable remaining in place.

And for all of those doomsday prophets out there who hate the Cup COT, the Nationwide version does not look bad at all and actually utilizes a spoiler instead of the rear wing. Time will tell how racy the car will be.

As for the here and now, I think we are going to see a three-man title battle this season between Busch, Edwards, and Brad Keselowski. It came down to Edwards, Keselowski, and eventual champ Clint Bowyer in 2008, but Bowyer will step into a part-time role with RCR's Nationwide program and not defend his title.

Kyle Busch, who won 10 times in the series last year, should step up and take his place in the championship race. As for some darkhorses, don't look past guys like Jason Leffler or Mike Bliss. Here is a list of teams currently believed to be planning to race in 2009, followed by my top 10 predictions for the new season.

I'll go off the record and also say I like the RCR #29 team to win the owner's championship, and Michael Annett for rookie of the year.

Projected full-time teams

0 Danny O’Quinn (Johnny Davis Motorsports)
00 Tony Raines (Front Row Motorsports)
01 Mike Wallace (Daytona)/various other drivers (Johnny Davis Motorsports)
07 David Green (SK Motorsports)
09 John Wes Townley (Zaxby’s)
1 Mike Bliss (Miccosukee Resorts)
6 David Ragan/Erik Darnell (Discount Tire/Northern Tool and Equipment)
11 Scott Lagasse Jr. (America’s Incredible Pizza)
12 Justin Allgaier (Verizon)
15 Michael Annett (Pilot Travel Centers/HYPE Energy Drink)
16 Greg Biffle/Matt Kenseth/Ricky Stenhouse/Colin Braun (Citi Financial)
18 Kyle Busch (Z-Line Designs)
20 Joey Logano/Denny Hamlin/Brad Coleman (GameStop/SportClips)
22 TBA (Trail Motorsports)
23 Robert Richardson II/Ken Butler III (Mahindra Tractors/Aaron’s)
24 Eric McClure (Hefty)
26 Brian Keselowski (K Automotive Motorsports)
27 Jason Keller (Kimberly-Clark/Kleenex)
28 Kenny Wallace (US Border Patrol)
29 Jeff Burton/Clint Bowyer/Stephen Leicht (Holiday Inn)
31 Stanton Barrett Jr./TBA (Rick Ware Racing)
32 Brian Vickers/Burney Lamar (Dollar General)
33 Kevin Harvick/Ryan Newman/Cale Gale (Armour Foods/VFW/Road Loans/Jimmy John's)
38 Jason Leffler (Great Clips)
40 Scott Wimmer (at least the first three races)/TBA (Key Motorsports)
41 Derrike Cope (Rick Ware Racing)
47 Michael McDowell (ICP/Tom's Snacks)-plans to run at least the first half of the season
49 Kertus Davis (Jay Robinson Racing)
52 various drivers (Means Racing)
60 Carl Edwards (Scott’s/Save-a-Lot/Vitamin Water)
62 Brendan Gaughan (South Point Casino and Spa/US Fidelis?)
66 Steve Wallace (5-Hour Energy Drink/US Fidelis?)
81 D.J. Kennington?/others? (Randy MacDonald Motorsports)
87 Joe Nemechek (NEMCO Motorsports)-may only run part-time, depending on sponsorship
88 Brad Keselowski (GoDaddy.com/Unilever/Delphi)
89 Morgan Shepherd (Faith Motorsports)
90 MSRP Start and Park Team A (Phil Parsons/Randy Humphrey)
91 MSRP Start and Park Team B (Phil Parsons/Randy Humphrey)
99 Michael Waltrip/Scott Speed (Aaron’s/Best Western/Red Bull)-only sponsored for ~25 races

Notable part-time teams

2/21 Austin Dillon/Clint Bowyer?/Stephen Leicht? (Richard Childress Racing)
5 Dale Earnhardt Jr./Martin Truex Jr./Tony Stewart/Mark Martin (Fastenal/GoDaddy.com/Unilever)
10 David Reutimann/others? (Beringer Vineyards)
17 Matt Kenseth/others? (Ritz/CitiFinancial?)
36 Marc Davis (WHUR Radio)
56 Larry Foyt (Daytona)/others? (Mac Hill Motorsports)
59 Marcos Ambrose (JTG Daugherty Racing)
70 Mark Green (Foretravel Motorcoaches)
77 Peyton Sellers (SFP)
98 Paul Menard (Menard’s)

PROJECTED TOP 10 POINTS FINISHERS:

1. CARL EDWARDS (60): After winning the 2007 title, last year did not get off to a strong start for Cousin Carl and the 60 team. Drew Blickensderfer took over as crew chief, and Edwards was able to track down and almost overtake Clint Bowyer for the championship.

He has another new crew chief in 2009, Dan Stillman, but Carl wouldn't be running for the crown if he didn't think he could win it. This Busch-Edwards-Keselowski battle could be one for the ages.

2. KYLE BUSCH (18): Rowdy won ten times last year, but he seemed to have the win or crash trying mantra in his 30 Nationwide starts. To take home his first NASCAR national title in 2009 (in Nationwide and/or Cup), he is going to have to not take unnecessary risks that could cost a solid points day, even if it means not winning.

And we all know how much that means to Kyle. Oh, and yeah, he has to beat that Edwards guy.

3. BRAD KESELOWSKI (88): Two years ago at this time, Brad Keselowski was an unknown racing for an unsponsored, sometimes start and park team. A year ago at this time, he was starting his first full season for Junior Motorsports, and before all was said and done, he was in the thick of a championship battle. Look for that to be the case again in the new year.

4. JASON LEFFLER (38): Leffler had a down year by the 38 team's standards in 2008, finishing ninth in points and only accumulating three top fives. Jason won Toyota their first Nationwide race two years ago, and I expect to see him back near the top of the standings and in victory lane this season.

5. MICHAEL ANNETT (15): Last spring, I ranked my top 10 prospects coming up through the stock car ranks. I almost immediately regretted not including Annett on that list, because this kid has impressed me in ARCA and limited Truck starts.

Moving up to an established Germain Nationwide team should increase his stock even more.

6. MIKE BLISS (1): Bliss was strong in not one, but two cars in 2008, starting out with Armando Fitz's organization before moving to the No. 1 car. He was the first driver in some time to find sustained success in James Finch's machines, and I look for Mike to break into victory lane in 2009.

7. JOEY LOGANO (20): Sliced Bread is only running some 24 races in the Nationwide Series, but given the fact that he will be driving a Gibbs car, and Gibbs cars dominated the series in 2008, Logano should have no problem winning events and finishing in the season top 10.

8. STEVE WALLACE (66): Young Steven made some serious headway in 2008, and aside from crashing into a fence at Daytona during preseason testing, didn't really make himself look like an ass. Another year of seasoning and more pressure from dad and the fans to perform should help Wallace move up the points ladder.

9. JUSTIN ALLGAIER (12): Allgaier seems like he has been around ARCA forever (winning the title in 2008), but he is still just 22 years old. With plenty of seat time under his belt, now is a good time to make the move to Nationwide.

There will be some growing pains for a team bumping up from a part-time schedule, but Roger Penske will not be disappointed in this choice.

10. BRENDAN GAUGHAN (62): Brendan has been caught back in his original home, the Truck Series, since a pedestrian rookie year in Cup in 2004. Let's see if he can "parlay" this opportunity with former Cup teammate Rusty Wallace's two-car Nationwide team into another chance at Cup. Stremme was strong in this car last year, and I expect Brendan to be as well.

Sprint Cup Preview: 10 Really Off-The-Wall Predictions

Hollis Warren — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 18:08:00 -0500

Before I get to my predictions, it appears as if the top 35 is finally set after a week of uncertainty, wheeling, and dealing. Teams are trying to gain that coveted spot into the Daytona 500 and four subsequent races.

Here are the car numbers, in order of 2008 owner points finish. The season's first practice isn't until Saturday, and qualifying Sunday, so I wouldn't be surprised to see more changes:

48
99
16
29
07
31
24
11
20
18
17
88
6
8
9
1
26
12
2
83
5
43
98 (using the 28's 2008 points)
19
42
00 (number change from 44)
34 (using the 15's points from 2008)
96 (using the 38's points from 2008)
55
39 (number change from 66)
77 (using the 22's points from 2008)
33 (using the 01's points from 2008)
7
82 (number change from 84)
47 (number change from 00)

So in the latest developments, Richard Childress Racing has secured the points from one of Dale Earnhardt Incorporated's disbanded teams to ensure that Clint Bowyer doesn't miss the Daytona 500.

Also, Bill Davis "bought into" Penske Racing, with the 77 team acquiring the 22's points from a year ago.

Brad Keselowski was supposed to get either the 01 or 15's points on owner James Finch's entry at Daytona, but this will not happen. It would technically count as a fifth car for Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing (John Andretti and Front Row Motorsports' No. 34 being the fourth in addition to the Nos. 1, 8, and 42). NASCAR said points transfers to allow rookies in fifth cars guaranteed spots was "against the spirit of the rule."

Here's what I have against the spirit of the rule: the rule itself.

NASCAR says no swapping points, so some owners (cough Roger Penske) get the idea to "sell" a portion of their team to an owner/former owner who has points and won't be running that car.

NASCAR should make all points swaps illegal, including ones where a change of ownership has apparently occurred. Or NASCAR could just lock in only the top 20 or 25 teams, seeing how those teams are pretty much on solid footing and likely aren't going to go the way of the dinosaur in the near future.

Notice how all of this year's transfers occurred amongst teams outside the top 20 in 2008?

Problem solved.

And oh by the way, on the champ's provisional front, Tony Stewart is first in line, followed by Terry Labonte and Bill Elliott. Notable names who will have to race their way into the 500 include Kvapil, Allmendinger, Smith, and Mike Wallace.

On to a new preseason feature at this blog: 10 really off-the-wall predictions. Chances that any of them actually happen? Well let's just say I have a better chance of dating a supermodel, or anybody for that matter.

1. Darrell Waltrip drops "Boogity, Boogity, Boogity" for "Andale, andale, andale."

Seeing how when I go out in public anymore I can't tell if I am in Mexico or the United States with as little English as I hear, it makes perfect sense to adopt Spanish as the second language of NASCAR on FOX.

2. Rusty Wallace pronounces everyone's name correctly.

There will be no more Aric Amarillo or David Gilligan in 2009.

3. No drivers fail a drug test, even ones with names rhyming with Lenny Tamlin.

As Ryan Newman alluded to, it's pretty easy to pass a drug test when NASCAR tells you when testing is going to occur. It's good to see someone in the sport has some common sense. Ryan Newman for NASCAR president!

4. Jimmie Johnson bucks the trend and gets a stupid injury DURING the season.

The past few offseasons have seen the three-time defending champion fall off the top of a golf cart at Mike Hamtpon's charity golf tourney and cut his finger with a knife while trying to cut a hole in his fire suit.

For an encore, I predict Johnson will break his arm while trying to emulate a Carl Edwards back flip after a win in 2009.

5. Bruton Smith decides to build yet another 1.5-mile cookie cutter!

Don't worry folks. Believe it or not, Bruton is something like 81 years old, so we won't be listening to his bad ideas forever. Hey, let's charge a ridiculous amount for race tickets, and then black it out on local television should the event not be a sellout!!!!

6. In an effort to be the first to park, Kirk Shelmerdine and Dave Blaney crash and cause a first-lap caution.

Because in the world of start and parking, finishing 43rd is just as good as finishing first.

7. David Ragan actually races the Big Brown Truck, claiming it's more aerodynamic and driver-friendly than the Car Of Tomorrow.

And NASCAR subsequently fines and places the 6 team on probation for the all-encompassing Rule 12-4A: Actions Detrimental to Stock Car Racing. That rule seemingly has more provisions in it than the Democrats' pork barrel-laden stimulus bill.

8. The Allstate girls go away forever. Seriously.

I love to see the pretty ladies during race broadcasts. Emphasis on pretty, and I don't think the Allstate girls fall into that category. Unless you are counting Kasey Kahne as one of them.

9. NASCAR kicks up their fines for rules violations.

Any rules violations will now be penalized with 200 points, a 10-week crew-chief suspension, and 100 hours of watching bad racing movies such as Days of Thunder and Talladega Nights. If you ain't first, you're last.

10. Brian France and several other top NASCAR dogs are arrested for fraud, leading to the first non-France family member as the sport's president: D.W. himself.

This would kill two birds with one stone: no more Brian the Brain screwing things up, and no more banging my head against the wall after 15 minutes of listening to Waltrip during a FOX broadcast.

A man can dream, can't he?

Sprint Cup Preview: The "Mom and Pop" Teams

Hollis Warren — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 18:47:00 -0500

Let me just say that I haven't been a big Jeremy Mayfield fan since his relationship with Rusty Wallace deteriorated in the sunset of his Penske career, but I am really glad to see him bucking the odds and starting up a full-time team for the 2009 season.

Mayfield is going to be a part of the handful of the drivers out to prove that one can still be competitive on limited funds in the upper levels of NASCAR. The sanctioning body said two years ago that the COT would reduce costs and allow more teams to be competitive.

While we laughed at that proclamation in 2007 and 2008 as the Big Four teams dominated victory lane, the poor economy is giving low-budget teams the opportunity to come out and prove something in 2009.

It will be intriguing to see if a team can be successful by purchasing just a few cars, like the teams below have, and running them at all types of tracks.

And who knows...as sponsorship costs continue to skyrocket, these low budget teams may be able to give some big name companies a discount, assuming they can perform well enough. Mayfield has already lined up All Sport as primary sponsor.

A quick note on this entry: I am not previewing any of the teams that are guaranteed to be start and parkers, specifically Larry Gunselman's 64 team, which will see Geoff and Todd Bodine behind the wheel, and Kirk Shelmerdine's 27 car.

A reminder that the 09 team, Front Row Motorsports' 34 car, and possibly R3 Motorsports (who will be running the Daytona 500 with Mike Skinner), will also run the full season.

And I only included Phil Parsons' team because I truly believe they are going to make an effort to race if they have sponsorship, seeing how everyone caught on to their little game in Nationwide pretty quickly last season. If Parsons parks that car 36 times in Cup competition, there are going to be some angry fans.

SCOTT RIGGS

Age: 38
Hometown: Bahama, NC
#36 Toyota
Crew Chief: Tommy Baldwin Jr.
Owner: Tommy Baldwin Jr.

All things considered, Scott Riggs did a great job in 2008 for Haas CNC. It was fairly obvious by mid-summer that Tony Stewart was buying into the operation, and Riggs would not have a ride.

Add in a 150 point penalty and falling out of the top 35, and it's a wonder Riggs was able to hold it together, rebound, and drive the team up to 30th in owner points.

Scott is not the most talented driver in the garage area, but given decent equipment, he can put forth solid efforts, with a top 10 thrown in occasionally.

Riggs will be paired up with one of the bright mechanical minds of the series in Tommy Baldwin Jr, who will pull the extremely rare crew chief/owner double duty.

This team has limited resources and no sponsors yet (I figured State Water Heaters and Hunt Brothers Pizza would follow Riggs from Haas, but State has already announced they are going to be an associate sponsor for the Baker-Curb Nationwide team), but Baldwin has the know-how and Riggs the talent to keep this team respectable during the 2009 season.

I cannot see Baldwin lowering himself to start and park, even with the minimal budget, but I do have a feeling this team will produce a lot of nostalgia for the old-time fans who miss the days of teams trying to succeed without as much as two pennies to rub together.

JOE NEMECHEK

Age: 45
Hometown: Lakeland, FL
#87 Toyota
Crew Chief: Philippe Lopez
Owner: Joe Nemechek

Nemechek spent the 2008 season racing for an underfunded operation, Furniture Row, with limited results. Seeing how the number of available rides was small, and the fact that he: a. is not a spring chicken, and b. does not have a strong track record, Front Row Joe has decided to return to his roots and run his own Sprint Cup operation.

Nemechek spent his rookie season in 1994 with Larry Hedrick's defunct team, before fielding his own team for two years, so he obviously has some experience in this field.

The Lakeland, FL driver also plans on running the full Nationwide schedule with his own team, something he did in the early 90s, winning the series title in 1992. With the limited funds at hand, fielding full-time operations in separate series is not going to be easy.

I have a feeling Nemechek will be parking in at least one of the two series, which may give rise to his old nickname of Needs-a-Check (this is a name that resulted from Jeff Fuller start-and-parking one of NEMCO's Nationwide cars every week a few short seasons ago).

JEREMY MAYFIELD

Age: 39
Hometown: Owensboro, KY
#41 All Sport Toyota (NOTE: Mayfield does NOT have the 41 team's points from 2008)
Crew Chief: Tony Furr
Owner: Jeremy Mayfield

At one point, Jeremy Mayfield had a solid Cup career going. Five wins, nine poles, and three finishes in the end of season Top 10. But apparently he is not the best at keeping his frustrations about management to himself (see Penske, Evernham) and was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time with Bill Davis Racing, since the sponsor didn't pay the bills and it was Toyota's first year of Cup competition.

Even by today's standards, Jeremy is not an old driver, and still has some gas left in the tank. Starting and running your own team is no walk in the park, but this is the only shot Mayfield has at getting back in the good graces of the top owners in the garage should a ride open up in the future.

The odds are obviously stacked against Mayfield, but with the number of fully funded teams at its lowest number in years, he stands a good chance at making all of the races.

All Sport is a name sponsor that is probably not giving the team a whole lot of money, but should allow this new team to compete during the year of the testing ban. And Tony Furr is a solid veteran crew chief. Keep one eye out for Jeremy Mayfield in 2009. This is a driver with something to prove.

DAVE BLANEY (Terry Labonte will drive at Daytona next week with Window World sponsoring)

Age: 46
Hometown: Hartford, OH
#66 Toyota
Crew Chief: Bill Henderson
Owner: Phil Parsons/Randy Humphrey

In 2008, Parsons and Humphrey committed, if you ask me, nothing short of theft by towing two cars to each Nationwide race. Of the 61 cumulative starts MSRP Motorsports made, they failed to finish 61 times. Obviously, these guys were simply interested in picking up an easy paycheck.

I know some people have to do what they can to survive in this sport, but come on, Parsons is a former driver and current TV commentator. He can't be that poor. Well, at least he is putting the money "earned" in 2008 to good use by starting a Sprint Cup team.

Parsons has named this team Prism Motorsports, which ironically enough is MSRP backwards. Will they be start and park double dippers this year? I would bet on it, although as I said above, Parsons is already drawing a lot of negative attention from people and if he parks cars in both series, it may just intensify.

They have Window World and Terry Labonte lined up for Daytona, and if they park after making the race on Labonte's past champ's provisional, we'll never hear the end of it.

Expect them to race during Speedweeks. As for Blaney, this is not the best opportunity, but I've heard a lot of people say that you have to be at the track each week in some shape or form, otherwise people quickly forget about you as a potential driver.

Sprint Cup Preview: Part Timers

Hollis Warren — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 18:16:00 -0500

First off, let me give myself a pat on the back for ALMOST getting the Super Bowl score correct for the second time in three years (and yes, I know my spread and total number of points mirrored the Vegas line, but I did not realize that until after I made the pick).

Secondly, Happy Groundhog's Day, an all important day where we figure out how much longer winter is going to last (and a groundhog's shadow is probably STILL more accurate than any meteorologist). Hopefully your life is not the same day over and over again.

And thirdly, on to the business at hand as we look at the drivers who will be running partial schedules during the 2009 Sprint Cup season. The rest of the preview will break down like this: the Mom N Pop teams tomorrow, 10 bold predictions on Wednesday, and Nationwide/Truck previews early next week.

I was going to do a What Really Grinds My Gears entry on the fact that NASCAR continues to allow teams to swap points (thus we have winning combinations such as John Andretti and Front Row Motorsports locked in to the Daytona 500, but not A.J. Allmendinger and the fourth RPM car), but I already complain about the sanctioning body too much.

We also deserve an explanation from NASCAR on how Hendrick is allowed to run a fifth car for Keselowski when Brad is going to be easily using up his rookie eligibility by running for James Finch, unless Hendrick outsmarted them and put the ownership of the 25 car in Finch's name.

A.J. ALLMENDINGER (at least the first five races and the Coke Zero 400)

Age: 27
Hometown: Los Gatos, CA
#44 Valvoline Dodge
Crew Chief: Sammy Johns
Owner: George Gillett/Ray Evernham/Richard Petty

As well as Anthony James Allmendinger ran down the stretch in the 10 (now 44) car, sponsorship difficulties currently have him pegged for a part-time schedule with Richard Petty Motorsports. After the rumors started flying during the holidays that Allmendinger was taking Elliott Sadler's spot in the 19 car, seeing him only slated for nine points races is a disappointment for those of us who were deeply impressed with the strides he made during his sophomore season in stock cars, and can't wait to see what is in store for 2009.

But all is not lost for Allmendinger. He is definitely running the first eight races, and with two off weekends thrown in, that gives the people at RPM until late April to pull sponsorship together to run more events.The economy may be in the toilet, but if Allmendinger runs as well as he did down the stretch for this team in '08, that may not be too tough of a sell. At the least, it would be difficult taking him out of the seat, and could force ownership to fire Sadler or Reed Sorenson in order to make room for AJ to run a full season.

MAX PAPIS (rookie) (18 races)

Age: 39
Hometown: Como, Lombardy, Italy
No. 13 Geico Toyota
Crew Chief: Randy Goss
Owner: Bob Germain

I was just doing some research on Papis' oval experience in stock cars. I knew it wasn't much, but Mad Max has one Nationwide start at Texas to his credit, and two Truck starts. Obviously, when this team takes to the track for the first time at Las Vegas at the end of the month, they will have a tough hill to climb.

This is Germain's first foray into the top level of NASCAR racing, and Papis is extremely green. Not to mention, running only half the races creates a disadvantage against the full-time teams who are at the track staying ahead of the curve each weekend.

But as luck would have it, Geico was forced to move to Cup by Nationwide at a great time (even if it meant giving the ride to Papis, who was sponsored by Geico at the Indy 500 a year ago, instead of Mike Wallace, which I thought was kind of a raw deal). While the 13 team will have to qualify on time each week, the perilous financial climate in the garage means they won't have to beat out too many well-funded operations to make the field. That will allow Papis to gain the all important seat time and potentially improve as the season progresses.

BILL ELLIOTT (12 races)

Age: 53
Hometown: Dawsonville, GA
No. 21 Motorcraft Ford
Crew Chief: David Hyder
Owner: Glen Wood/Len Wood/Eddie Wood

You know, it's actually kind of sad to see these legendary drivers of the '80s and '90s struggling both on the track and in the desire to hang up the helmet. In all honesty, Rusty Wallace has been the only one to get it right, going out while still at the top of his game. Don't get me wrong, Bill Elliott is a gentleman, class act, and was once a fine racer, but the time has come for him to move on in life. He said last year would be it, but here we are entering 2009, and Awesome Bill has agreed to drive for the Wood Brothers once again.

The Woods, who have gone from a respectable team at the beginning of this decade to struggling to hang on at the end, have decided to return to running a partial schedule, something they did pre-1980s. The plan is to run Daytona, and mainly 1.5 milers after that. This may not be such a bad thing, because Elliott brought home a solid 12th place finish at Homestead in November. While the sun appears to be setting on a great career for Bill Elliott, hopefully the same is not being said of the Wood Brothers in the near future. One of NASCAR's lasting legacies still has a spot in this sport in my opinion.

REGAN SMITH (12-plus races)

Age: 25
Hometown: Cato, NY
No. 78 Furniture Row Chevy
Crew Chief: Jay Guy
Owner: Barney Visser

Smith won Rookie of the Year honors in 2008 by nothing short of default, as everyone else either was too busy wrecking or packing their bags as fast as possible to get back to open wheel. While the Cato, NY native did not have any top tens, he stayed out of trouble and posted several solid outings, improving as the season moved forward. For a rookie, that is all you can ask. But by not being spectacular, Regan was an easy choice for Teresa Earnhardt to let go when she had to merge DEI with CGRWFS.

2009 sees Regan Smith pairing up with the Furniture Row team, which has run the past three full seasons out of Denver. Not Denver, North Carolina. Denver, Colorado. This is a team with limited resources, and their job is made more difficult by being located two time zones away from NASCARolina. Stepping back in light of the poor economy will turn out to be a bright move for this team, as they can better focus on performing well in the dozen or so races they plan to enter. Pairing up with Smith may be a smart move as well, seeing how he is yearning to prove that he is deserving of a full-time ride.

TRAVIS KVAPIL (at least the first five races)

Age: 32
Hometown: Janesville, WI
No. 28 Ford
Crew Chief: Ben Leslie
Owner: Doug Yates

I'm just going to put it out there that I am not pleased with the way Kvapil has been treated by Doug Yates this offseason. I know money talks in today's world, but Yates has frankly treated him like dirt. We were under the impression for a couple months that Kvapil was going to run no matter what in 2009, as sponsorships were still a tough sell for the 28 team. Then Ask.com hooks up with Hall of Fame Racing, they place a call to Yates, and before you know it, Bobby Labonte has taken your ride, points, and crew chief (in addition to another sponsor, Academy Sports, that was apparently going to back Kvapil in a few races this year).

The plans currently call for Yates to run Kvapil in at least the first five races, and move on from there based on sponsorship. But with two seemingly full sponsored cars, Yates should make an effort to put Kvapil out there full-time in 2009, even if they only acquire sponsorship for a few events. He owes it to Travis. Kvapil, who had several strong outings a year ago and nearly finished in the top 20 in points, revitalized Yates Racing, and is the reason people like Paul Menard came calling.

BRAD KESELOWSKI (rookie) (10 races in the 09, seven in the 25)

Age: 25
Hometown: Rochester Hills, MI
No. 25 GoDaddy.com/No. 09 Miccosukee Resorts Chevy
Crew Chief: Lance McGrew (No. 25)/Marc Reno (No. 09)
Owner: Rick Hendrick (No. 25)/James Finch (No. 09)

I've said it before and say it again, Brad Keselowski is proof that the system is not broken. A young, extremely talented young man stuck with a middling, poorly funded team, who may not be the prettiest or most media savvy person in the world can still get a break. This year, 2009, will see Keselowski's first serious foray into Cup competition, and considering the fact he will be running up to 17 races, Rookie of the Year is a strong possibility.

Obviously, Brad will have great equipment in the seven races he races in the famed Hendrick No. 25. And Lance McGrew has been around with the team for a while, so he can show the future of Hendrick Motorsports the ropes of Cup competition. As for the races with James Finch, it will be intriguing to see how Keselowski responds to equipment that may not be the greatest, although Finch's 09 has been known to hold its own from time to time with the best in the business. There was a rumor that Hendrick would provide engines for the Keselowski/Finch collaboration, but that has not been substantiated. We'll get to see how Brad performs out of the gate right away as he will be behind the wheel of the Finch machine during Speedweeks.

Sprint Cup Preview: Almirola, Sadler, Sorenson, Hornish, Menard

Hollis Warren — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 17:51:00 -0500

We continue the Sprint Cup preview today with a gaggle of drivers out of the American automaker camps.

The season preview will take a break until next Monday, so I can decompress tomorrow, and do a comprehensive Super Bowl preview on Friday or Saturday night, while most other people my age are out having a social life.

ARIC ALMIROLA

Age: 24
Hometown: Tampa, Fla.
No. 8 TBA Chevy
Crew Chief: Doug Randolph
Owner: Teresa Earnhardt/Chip Ganassi/Felix Sabates

For a while there, it was questionable if Almirola was going to get the opportunity to run his first full Cup season in 2009, an opportunity that was promised last year. But sponsorship shortcomings aside, EGR will field a third full-time entry in the new season.

Almirola ran 12 races last year, splitting this ride with Mark Martin, picking up five top 20s along the way. Four of those finishes were on tracks of a mile or less, while the fifth was at Talladega, an event that featured the stereotypical Big One.

Almirola has to be treated as a rookie, considering he will be seeing many tracks for the first time as a Sprint Cup competitor. But if his performances last year are any indication, Aric is ready to step up to the challenge and put forth some solid efforts.

You just have to wonder if the loss of Mark Martin, Tony Gibson, and the Army sponsorship from this team will doom them, or if EGR will treat them as the ugly stepsister to Truex and Montoya's well-sponsored, potentially Chase-contending, rides.

ELLIOTT SADLER

Age: 33
Hometown: Emporia, VA
No. 19 Best Buy/Stanley Tools Dodge
Crew Chief: Kevin Buskirk
Owner: George Gillett/Richard Petty/Ray Evernham

The fallout from Sadler's supposed firing will likely stick with the 19 team and Elliott all season, which could drastically affect their performance. (Not that I would know), if you are a guy and decide to break up with your girlfriend, only to take her back after she threatens to jump off a bridge if you leave, the relationship thereafter is forever changed.

It probably becomes very awkward, and I am sure Sadler is going to experience the same thing in 2009.

With that being said, Elliott needs to come out and set the world on fire early in the year. Not only does it appear as if Gillett is ready to get rid of him (even after signing a new contract last year), but if Allmendinger runs well in the 44 before sponsorship dries up, it's going to be hard to keep him out of a ride.

There are a lot of forces that will make this team's task difficult in 2009, not to mention the fact that new crew chief Kevin Buskirk, who actually worked with Sadler at Yates in the one or two years he was actually good, is inexperienced in the role.

REED SORENSON

Age: 23
Hometown: Peachtree City, GA
No. 43 Valvoline/McDonald's/US Air Force/I'm sure there's more Dodge
Crew Chief: Mike Shiplett
Owner: George Gillett/Richard Petty/Ray Evernham

When Reed came into what is now the Nationwide Series and immediately contended for the title as a 19-year-old in 2005, I think that created a lot of unrealistic expectations on the part of Chip Ganassi, the fans, and Sorenson himself.

When Ganassi moved him to Cup competition full-time the next year, and he struggled, some self-doubt may have started to creep in. The last two seasons were not any better, and with Ganassi's Cup operation in disarray, it was probably best for the two parties to go in different directions.

Sorenson ends up staying in the Dodge camp, and joining the newly named Richard Petty Motorsports, where he will carry the huge burden of the famous No. 43. He will also have to learn how to carry many hats in 2009, as the sponsor is seemingly going to be different every week.

Even though he is just 23, this counts as Reed's second chance to prove he was worth the hype in 2005. While the RPM team has combined the talents of the GEM and Petty operations to produce a stronger cohesive effort, this entire organization, and the Dodge teams in general, face a huge uphill climb in 2009. Look for Sorenson to have a great run or two, but to be nothing more than ordinary.

SAM HORNISH JR.

Age: 29
Hometown: Defiance, OH
No. 77 Mobil 1/Penske Trucking/Auto Club Dodge
Crew Chief: Travis Geisler
Owner: Roger Penske

Hornish's rookie year in the fendered vehicles seemed to get progressively worse. For a rookie, the opposite should happen. But Sam can brag about the fact that of all the open wheelers who invaded NASCAR at the start of the 2008 season, he's the only one still standing.

There is no way to go but up for the No. 77 team in 2009, and the former Indy 500 champion is certainly a capable driver. I look for marked improvements in his performance during the new year.

The two biggest things working against Sam have to be: a. the fact he finished the season out of the top 35, and b. his propensity to hit things with said fendered vehicle. With the recession taking its hold on NASCAR, the top 35 won't be an issue for this team, and they should make all of the races.

As for the wrecking problem, that is in Hornish's hands. Most second year drivers don't wreck nearly as much as they did when they were rookies, but if he tears up a bunch of stuff again, Penske may be forced to move him back to IndyCar seeing how Castroneves is probably going to jail (I know he hired Will Power just in case for that ride, but at some point, if Hornish doesn't improve in Cup it's going to be worthless to keep trying).

PAUL MENARD

Age: 28
Hometown: Eau Claire, WI
No. 98 Menard’s Ford
Crew Chief: Larry Carter
Owner: Doug Yates

Paul Menard has landed at Yates Racing on the tails of daddy's deep pockets, and seeing how he has apparently ousted Travis Kvapil out of a ride (which makes me really upset), the performance better be there or a lot of people will be calling him out.

Menard was nothing more than a 25th place driver at DEI, and if you ask me, Yates is currently the Ford equivalent of GM's Dale Earnhardt Inc.

Menard will be given the tools to succeed, considering Yates' close ties with Roush-Fenway. Plus, he will be paired with one of the best crew chiefs in the garage in Larry Carter.

But is this third year driver capable of being a consistent contender in Sprint Cup competition? I don't think so.

He will be very strong at the restrictor plate races and maybe the road courses, but otherwise, Menard will make Doug Yates wish he still had Kvapil in the car, even if it meant several millions of dollars less to finance the team.

Sprint Cup Preview: Reutimann, Robby Gordon, Ambrose, Waltrip, Speed

Hollis Warren — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 18:56:00 -0500

I am going to preview the rest of the drivers by manufacturer. First up, the Toyota drivers. Don't worry, Scott Riggs or Joe Nemechek fans, I have a special entry for teams like yours. It is going to be called the Mom N Pops Preview.

Mom N Pop: A Sprint Cup team that has bought equipment on the cheap during the recession and plans to run the full 2009 season, with little or no financial backing and a household name driving.

Certainly an underdog, this team may or may not be a start and park effort (and seeing how they are all running Toyotas, my guess is the equipment was bought from what was Bill Davis Racing).

DAVID REUTIMANN

Age: 38
Hometown: Zephyrhills, Fla.
No. 00 Aaron’s (18 races)/TBA Toyota
Crew Chief: Rodney Childers
Owner: Michael Waltrip/Robert Kauffman

In case you didn't notice, and judging by the fact that certain television networks focus on just a handful of drivers, you probably didn't, Reutimann started to come on strong in the second half of the 2008 season.

He even won the pole at Homestead in November. Reutimann's first year and a half in the series was a struggle, but can you blame him for being partnered with a brand-new team and manufacturer? Being an inexperienced driver at this level is tough enough in itself.

Entering 2009, I truly believe Reutimann is capable of being one of the series' biggest surprises. But I do not see him backing up his 22nd-place points performance of one year ago, just based on the fact that there are several new or revamped teams that should find their way into the top 25 of the standings.

Losing Ryan Pemberton to Team Red Bull hurts, but Elliott Sadler's former crew chief, Rodney Childers, should step in and do an adequate job. Don't be surprised if David shocks the world and wins a race this year.

ROBBY GORDON

Age: 40
Hometown: Bellflower, Calif.
No. 7 Jim Beam/Menards/MAPEI Toyota
Crew Chief: Kirk Almquist
Owner: Robby Gordon

Robby has now successfully pulled off the manufacturer Texas hat trick, switching to Toyota for the new campaign after being with Chevy in 2005-06, Ford in 2007, and Dodge last year.

Unless he plans on spearheading Honda's entry into the Sprint Cup Series during the worst recession in several generations, there is nowhere else to turn if this doesn't work out. But given the horsepower advantages Toyota enjoyed last year, how can RG not be pleased?

It seems as if the sponsorship on the No. 7 car decreases each year, but Gordon keeps plugging along as a small, single-car, owner/driver operation. With it looking like there are going to be just 35-37 guaranteed competitive teams each weekend, this should increase this team's chances of putting on some solid performances.

As long as Robby doesn't get overzealous behind the wheel, he is one of the best drivers in the business. Don't be surprised if this team sneaks into the top 25 in points by the end of the season.

MARCOS AMBROSE

Age: 32
Hometown: Launceston, Tasmania, Australia
No. 47 Little Debbie/Clorox/Kingsford/Bush’s Baked Beans Toyota
Crew Chief: Frank Kerr
Owner: Tad Geschickter/Brad Daugherty

Kangaroo Meat, as Kevin Harvick once called Ambrose in a commercial, has quickly gained a solid following amongst fans from both Down Under and here in the States.

Having Marcos Ambrose in the Sprint Cup Series for the 2009 season is a huge positive, as it should draw even more international fans to the sport.

A lot of people questioned his ability when he first entered the Truck Series a few years ago, but Marcos has proven to be one of the best racers in the world, especially on the road courses.

Like any rookie (Marcos will not be eligible for ROTY for running more than seven races in 2008), he faces an uphill climb. This is a new, more competitive series, with a car that is a completely different animal than the Nationwide machine.

The No. 47 will struggle on ovals, but I fully expect them to contend at both Sonoma and the Glen. On the bright side, Ambrose will still be paired with the JTG Racing team, although their flagship Cup effort will be fielded out of the MWR shop.

MICHAEL WALTRIP

Age: 45
Hometown: Owensboro, KY
No. 55 NAPA Toyota
Crew Chief: Bootie Barker
Owner: Michael Waltrip/Robert Kauffman

A few weeks back, Mikey dropped a hint that 2009 may be his last season in Sprint Cup, after a quarter decade of calling the series home.

I don't know if he is calling a bluff, tired of dealing with the multiple responsibilities that come with being an owner/driver, or realizes that NAPA is going to bail on him if he continues to run 30th each week, but it will be interesting to see if this story develops any further as the season unfolds.

The second year of Michael Waltrip Racing was much better than the first, even if Waltrip did finish 29th in points. The No. 55 team qualified for every race after missing 22 of 36 in '07, and solidified themselves in the top 35 entering the new year.

Mikey has assembled a ton of talented people around him, including Steve Hallam, Cal Wells, and Bootie Barker, and while he may not be the best driver in the world, that should allow him to finish in around the same spot in points this year.

SCOTT SPEED (rookie)

Age: 26
Hometown: Manteca, Calif.
No. 82 Red Bull Toyota
Crew Chief: Jimmy Elledge
Owner: Dietrich Mateschitz

Just a few short years ago, the aptly named Scott Speed was supposed to be the young man that drummed up the dying interest of Formula One in the United States. But here we are in 2009, and Speed is ready to burst on the scene in Sprint Cup competition.

After failing in F1, the young Californian went to Dietrich Mateschitz and asked to keep him a part of Team Red Bull, only this time working his way up the stock car ladder.

For a driver trained in the open wheel ranks, the ascension he has made in two short years through ARCA and Trucks to Cup is amazing, and suggests a bright future in this sport.

Speed's first four races in Sprint Cup competition could be summed up by saying it looked like a monkey doing a football (using the PG version here). He ran even worse than Allmendinger did as a rookie.

But at Homestead, Speed started second and finished 16th, showing just how quick of a learner he is. 2009 will be a year of growing pains and ups and downs, but this fruity, slightly wacky young man deserves your attention.

Don't forget to catch him running some Nationwide events for Michael Waltrip either. I wouldn't be surprised if he won a race in that series in 2009.

Your 2009 Sprint Cup Champion Will Be...

Hollis Warren — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 19:15:00 -0500

Now, just wait a minute. We're going to go in reverse from fourth to first. Hold your boos, cheers, or complaints until the end!

4. CARL EDWARDS

Age: 29
Hometown: Columbia, MO
No. 99 Aflac Ford
Crew Chief: Bob Osborne
Owner: Jack Roush/John Henry

Carl Edwards had the competition seeing red in 2008, both figuratively and literally, as his red Office Depot machine led the series in victories and came up just short of a championship. 2009 brings Aflac on board full-time and a new bright green and black paint scheme. Let me tell you something—that scheme is sharp. I was able to spot it from blocks away in busy downtown Manhattan.

Cousin Carl, Bob Osborne, and the entire No. 99 team should once again be a serious title threat in the new season, and I would not be surprised, in the least, if they brought home Jack Roush's third championship in seven years.

Edwards runs well at pretty much every track (although he is still gaining his footing on the road courses). If there is one thing holding the former substitute teacher back, it would be his tendency to go overboard, at times, behind the wheel.

Yes, you have to be aggressive to win (see Kansas in September) but not at the expense of tearing up equipment and costing your team a good finish. Occasional antics aside, most fans adore Edwards and his victory back flips, so a championship by this team would be highly popular.

3. JEFF GORDON

Age: 37
Hometown: Vallejo, CA
No. 24 DuPont/National Guard Chevy
Crew Chief: Steve Letarte
Owner: Rick Hendrick

The fact that the famed DuPont No. 24 did not reach victory lane—for the first time since 1993—and did not seriously contend for a championship, pretty much sent fans, the media, and the garage into crisis lockdown mode. Was it the end of the dynasty that had ruled the sport for nearly 15 years?

I don't think the situation is that dire? Gordon, at age 37 (not very old, although it seems like he is old when it appears that he has been around forever), is still one of the top NASCAR drivers.

Gordon and Letarte put together a strong season in 2007, and if it weren't for Jimmie Johnson's Chase domination, would have brought home a fifth title for Gordon. They had a strong grasp on the COT from the very beginning, although getting it to handle well and run fast on the large tracks proved to be their downfall in 2008.

However, during the Chase, there were signs that the team had turned the corner and is capable of contending in 2009. It's now been over seven years since Gordon's last championship, and there are whispers that Gordon's focus is on his life outside of racing—not the job at hand.

That may be the case but let me tell you something—this guy still has the fire in his belly to win and the talent and team to do so.

2. JIMMIE JOHNSON

Age: 33
Hometown: El Cajon, CA
No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevy
Crew Chief: Chad Knaus
Owner: Rick Hendrick

The last three seasons, I have not picked Jimmie Johnson as my preseason Cup champion. We see where that has gotten us, as Johnson enters 2009 looking to win an unprecedented fourth straight championship in NASCAR's elite division.

Everyone wants to know how they are consistently so good, but I think the answer is quite simple—a smart and talented driver, an even smarter crew chief, and a group of team-oriented support people who work together with astounding chemistry.

Oh yeah, the Hendrick equipment is top-notch as well, and Lady Luck seems to be a big No. 48 fan (although I think Lady Luck runs out for the Lowe's bunch during the 2009 Chase at some point in time).

Obviously, Johnson should once again be in the thick of the championship battle when the Chase rolls around. This team is awfully quiet for the first 26 races compared to some others, but when the time comes to race for a title, they are more prepared than anyone else.

Give credit to Knaus. I think he has figured out that his team is solid enough to "back in" to the Chase even with a few poor finishes, so he spends much more time making sure his cars are difficult to contend with at those ten race tracks where the championship is decided.

That's not to say that they slack off during February-September, but they realize much more is at stake in September-November.

1. KYLE BUSCH

Age: 23
Hometown: Las Vegas, NV
No. 18 M&M’s/Mars/Interstate Batteries Toyota
Crew Chief: Steve Addington
Owner: Joe Gibbs

Love or hate him, Kyle Busch burst onto the scene in 2008 and polarized the sport like no one since the days of Dale Earnhardt. He ruffled feathers with numerous drivers, but at the same time, won multiple races in not one, not two, but three series.

Rowdy took home eight of the 26 pre-Chase races on the Cup side and jumped out to a huge lead in the points standings, which of course evaporated when the final 10 events commenced.

While we all figured Kyle would still contend for the title when the points were reset at New Hampshire, I don't think any of us expected the myriad of problems that the team faced in the early stages of the championship run—the 10th place points finish or being shut out of victory lane down the stretch.

While the Chase was a nightmare for the No. 18 team, I think it may have been the best thing that could have ever happened to the talented, but nevertheless raw and immature, Kyle Busch, entering 2009.

Adversity tends to bring out the best in people, and after the disaster of last fall, Wild Thing will be hungrier than ever. This young man is a special talent who has just begun to realize his immense potential during his first season with the Gibbs organization.

Busch has a fire in his eyes like few others; not only does he want to beat the competition, he wants to obliterate it. And, I've never seen someone feed off so much negative energy from the crowd before.

A year older and months removed from a series of crushing defeats, I truly believe Kyle "Wild Thing/Shrub/Rowdy" Busch is ready to take the next step and become one of the youngest Sprint Cup champions in history.

Sprint Cup Preview: Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Greg Biffle, Mark Martin

Hollis Warren — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 14:02:00 -0500

I'm sitting here watching the Rolex 24 and am simply amazed that after 23+ hours of racing, there are still four cars on the lead lap within seconds of each other.

In a short period of time, we'll know if Ganassi can extend their winning streak at Daytona to four in a row, or if one of the Brumos Porsches or Wayne Taylor SunTrust entry can spoil the party.

I hope everyone had the opportunity to stay up until 1:30 last night to catch the end of the Toyota All-Star Showdown (even if it meant sleeping until 11:30 this morning for some of us, haha).

Seeing the relative inexperience of some of the drivers in the field, you wouldn't expect national touring stars like Ron Hornaday and Joey Logano to make themselves look like the biggest donkeys in the event, but that is exactly what happened.

Hornaday's brazen move took out Brian Ickler, when it appeared as if Ickler was the man to beat. And then Logano pulled off a similar move trying to pass Peyton Sellers on the last lap, wrecking Sellers.

Kudos to NASCAR for waving the checkered over Logano and giving the win to Matt Kobyluck. There's a sharp contrast between the short track bump/run and the straight taking someone out, and what Hornaday and Logano did falls into the latter category.

I know these young racers need to learn to race with the best if they ever want to become one of the best, but this event last night was about them, and not about Joey Logano or Ron Hornaday.

Unfortunately, those two didn't get the memo. Hopefully, in the future, NASCAR goes back to keeping this as a race for regional touring drivers only so drivers like Hornaday and Logano don't let their egos get in the way of some lucky young man making a name for himself on national television.

Just an FYI: Sellers is running a partial Nationwide schedule this season, so wouldn't it be poetic justice if he could return the favor on Logano at some point?

Moving on, today we get closer to me naming my 2009 championship pick. Will I anoint Jimmie Johnson the favorite for a four-peat, or give the crown to Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, or Jeff Gordon? We'll see tomorrow!

5. MATT KENSETH

Age: 36
Hometown: Cambridge, WI
No. 17 DeWalt Tools/USG Sheetrock/R&L Carriers/Carhartt Ford
Crew Chief: Drew Blickensderfer
Owner: Jack Roush/John Henry

2008 was an uncharacteristic year by Matt Kenseth standards. Yes, he quietly put together a solid season, as usual, but the No. 17 team failed to find victory lane and was never really a threat for the championship.

Maybe I cursed them by picking the team to win it all last January. Kenseth will be paired with his third crew chief in three years when Speedweeks commence, as Drew Blickensderfer comes over from the Roush Nationwide program.

I look for Kenseth to rebound in 2009, even as many people are starting to write him off prematurely. A return to victory lane and contention during the Chase are certainly in the cards.

Blickensderfer turned around Carl Edwards' struggling Nationwide program at the midpoint of the 2008 season, and has worked well with Kenseth in that series the year before.

He is clearly ready to lead an elite Sprint Cup team, something Chip Bolin did not have much success with after taking over for Robbie Reiser one year ago (although to defend Bolin, the guy didn't have much crew chief experience entering the role as Blickensderfer does).

6. DALE EARNHARDT JR.

Age: 34
Hometown: Kannapolis, NC
No. 88 Mountain Dew AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevy
Crew Chief: Tony Eury Jr.
Owner: Rick Hendrick

Junior's first season at Hendrick Motorsports had its ups and downs, but for the most part, it did not live up to the expectations placed on him when moving to the sport's premier operation.

The first half of the season was largely successful, if you leave out the fact their only win came as the result of smart pit strategy.

But as the Chase approached, the team started to fizzle and faded to 12th when the final 10 races rolled around in the fall months.

This will be a defining year for Earnhardt Jr. If he doesn't come out and challenge for the championship, his detractors that are often heard screaming the word "overrated" will have even more reason to criticize him, while even his most diehard fans may be forced to question his place amongst the sport's elite.

I think he will come out and put forth a better overall effort in 2009, but winning the championship will still be a stretch. Cousin Tony Eury Jr.'s strategy on top of the pit box has long been chastised, and he could be what is holding the double 8 back. Don't forget, he has three pretty good teammates to beat out as well.

7. GREG BIFFLE

Age: 39
Hometown: Vancouver, WA
No. 16 3M Ford
Crew Chief: Greg Erwin
Owner: Jack Roush/John Henry

After a couple of mediocre years by Biffle standards, he and the No. 16 team came out and put forth a strong showing in 2008, coming home third in points with two victories. Greg is certainly one of the sport's brightest stars, and he is competitive at almost every track.

Like Mark Martin and Jeff Burton, his chances at winning a championship are starting to evaporate as his age advances, so I am sure Greg Erwin and everyone else on the No. 16 team will do everything in their power to put Biffle in a position to win the title at Homestead.

As long as Biffle makes the Chase, he has to be considered a threat to win the championship. With half the final 10 races being on his long-time bread and butter, the cookie cutter 1.5 and 2 milers, and another two at tracks he won at in 2008 (New Hampshire and Dover), this team has the capability of dethroning Jimmie Johnson.

I wouldn't be surprised if that happened, but I have them ranked a little lower this year just due to the fact I see teams like the 17, 18, and 88, which struggled in the Chase a year ago, coming out more prepared for those crucial races in 2009.

8. MARK MARTIN

Age: 50
Hometown: Batesville, AR
No. 5 Kellogg’s/Carquest/Cheez-It Chevy
Crew Chief: Alan Gustafson
Owner: Rick Hendrick

As much as I respect Mark Martin for the person and racer he is, his indecision when it comes to retirement has pretty much been a frustration to me and many others. But nevertheless, we do get to enjoy Mark for at least one more full-time campaign aimed at winning that elusive Sprint Cup.

Can the sentimental pick pull it off? That's debatable, but Mark should be a threat week in and week out in 2009, and find victory lane for the first time since 2005.

While Martin will be the only full-time driver past the half century mark this season, that won't be a disadvantage. He is in better shape than some of the guys half his age.

What will be a problem will be the No. 5 team. They are very good, but not as good as the 24 or 48. I'm sure Rick Hendrick will put a lot of effort into giving Mark the chance at winning the championship, but this team has not been a serious threat for the title in years.

Even Kyle Busch was simply a mid-pack Chase driver in this car, and Casey Mears barely finished in the top 20.

Sprint Cup Preview: Ragan, Burton, Harvick, Kurt Busch

Hollis Warren — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 14:40:00 -0500

You can throw Brad Keselowski's name into the Rookie of the Year mix in Sprint Cup: it was announced he was going to drive 10 races in James Finch's 09 Miccosukee Gaming Chevy, in addition to the seven races scheduled with Hendrick Motorsports. NASCAR only takes the best 17 races when choosing ROTY, so Keselowski will have to run well each time out. Sterling Marlin, Ken Schrader, and Mike Bliss will fill out a full schedule for the 09 team, although I am sure they are going to park the car most of the time. Bliss will continue full-time in Nationwide, where he should be right in the title hunt with Keselowski.

Joe Nemechek will join Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards by trying to run the full Cup and Nationwide slates, although Nemechek's task will be considerably tougher: he is doing it completely out of his own pocket. Nemechek's 87 team has always been a success in Nationwide, and don't be surprised if he is a contender, sponsor or not. He will pilot Toyotas in Cup competition, where NEMCO never really emerged as a threat in the mid-90s. You have to wonder if Nemechek is going to be a start and parker in one of these series. He could contend in Nationwide and attract sponsorship, or park in Nationwide to support a 30th place Cup team. We'll see what transpires.

Continuing on with the Sprint Cup Preview, we begin to look at my 12 Chase drivers today. And two of them were not in the Chase one year ago:

9. DAVID RAGAN

Age: 23
Hometown: Unadilla, GA
#6 UPS Ford
Crew Chief: Jimmy Fennig
Owner: Jack Roush/John Henry

David Ragan did not disappoint me in 2008 by living up to my proclamation that he would be the series' most improved driver. So I fully expect he and the 6 team to take the next step, find victory lane, and qualify for the Chase in the new season. The expectations have most definitely been elevated for Ragan in 2009, as one doesn't have to look any further than the fact that UPS decided to sponsor him over everyone else that was available.

Putting the weight of the world on the shoulders of a 23-year old could be the recipe for disaster, but if anyone can handle the added pressure, it would be the calm and collected Ragan. And if he starts to stray because of the added responsibility, he will have Jack Roush, his senior teammates, and crew chief Jimmy Fennig there for support. Fennig turned Kurt Busch into a champion and could have won one or two with Mark Martin. His veteran leadership and guidance of a man young enough to be his son has the chance to produce huge dividends in the new year.

10. JEFF BURTON

Age: 41
Hometown: South Boston, VA
#31 Caterpillar Chevy
Crew Chief: Scott Miller
Owner: Richard Childress

Jeff Burton is a great February to August racer, qualifying for the Chase easily the past three seasons. But when the final ten events have rolled around, he and his team have not asserted themselves as serious championship contenders. Burton realizes the clock is ticking on his chances to win a title, and even they appear to be a long shot considering the fact that the last time a driver over 40 won the title was Dale Jarrett a decade ago.

That being said, this is still a quality team that will qualify for the Chase and find victory lane at least once or twice. I am sure Caterpillar feels fortunate to be associated with a winning team for the first time since they sponsored Jeff's older brother. He will not disappoint. Jeff is certainly a sentimental favorite to win it all (along with a driver who I have yet to preview), but the entire RCR team has a tall mountain to climb in overcoming the Hendrick, Roush, and Gibbs powerhouses.

11. KEVIN HARVICK

Age: 33
Hometown: Bakersfield, CA
#29 Shell Pennzoil/Reese's Chevy
Crew Chief: Todd Berrier
Owner: Richard Childress

Harvick, once the immature brat, has set a modern-era record by finishing 80 races in a row, a sign that he has matured into a dependable driver who will not take any unnecessary risks to chance a good points day. But while Harvick is always around at the checkered flag, that has yet to produce any Sprint Cup championships, or even serious contention for one. Will that change in 2009? I don't think so, but look for Kevin Harvick to make another run at the Chase and find victory lane for the first time since the 2007 Daytona 500.

I think there are two big factors holding back Harvick, Burton, and RCR from taking that step from Chase participant to championship contender. One was alluded to by Burton this week, saying that the RCR teams need more speed and horsepower to compete with Roush/Hendrick/Gibbs and end their 15-year championship drought. The other has to be the lack of consistency. The 29 and 31 may have very few DNFs, but they will go weeks at a time without as much as a top 10. That can't happen if you want to win a championship.

12. KURT BUSCH

Age: 30
Hometown: Las Vegas, NV
#2 Miller Lite Dodge
Crew Chief: Pat Tryson
Owner: Roger Penske

It wouldn't be my annual season preview without a surprise pick to make the Chase. Frankly, Kurt Busch, the 2 team, and entire Penske organization are more capable than what they showed in 2008. You can blame Dodge all you want, but Roger Penske won't accept running a second-rate team, and if the Blue Deuce doesn't come out firing in 2009, I am sure some changes will be made to the team's structure.

Kurt Busch is still one of the best wheelmen in the garage, although he got shuffled out of the picture by his brother and own struggles a year ago. I think he, and his long-time crew chief Pat Tryson, have something to prove to the NASCAR world. This team won't bring home their first championship, but I look for a rebound in their performance this season. Look for them to be strong at the typical Busch favorites such as Pocono and Bristol, and sneak into the Chase. Also look for them to get back to victory lane, which they only reached in 2008 because of pure luck.

Dust off the cobwebs, the new season begins NOW

Hollis Warren — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 19:32:00 -0500

We Americans are faced with a daunting fact: this will be the first weekend without a meaningful football game since the week before Labor Day.

Don't worry any longer, because in addition to a full slate of college hoops, the first major touring race in American motorsports is here this weekend to shake off the wintertime and pre-Valentine's Day blues.

The 47th running of the Rolex 24 Hours at Daytona kicks off the Grand-Am season for the Daytona Prototype and Grand Touring classes beginning tomorrow afternoon at 3:30 (notice the later start time), and continuing all the way until the same time on Sunday.

FOX will air the green flag and continue until 4:30, when coverage transfers over to SPEED until 10. They take the night off, as usual, and are on the air bright and early at 7 on Sunday morning until the checkered flag falls.

The NASCAR and IRL connections seem to run deep at the 24 Hours, especially in the DPs, and this year is no different. Amongst the entrants are Danica Patrick, Dario Franchitti, Scott Dixon, Ryan Briscoe, Jimmie Johnson, Casey Mears, A.J. Allmendinger, Juan Pablo Montoya, Colin Braun, and Kyle Petty. And Roger Penske, Chip Ganassi, and Richard Childress all own teams.

Ganassi's DP team will be trying to earn their record fourth consecutive overall victory. Here is the starting lineup for the DP class, seeing that is where all the heavy hitters are:

58 David Donohue/Antonio Garcia/Darren Law/Buddy Rice (Brumos Racing)
16 Timo Bernhard/Ryan Briscoe/Romain Dumas (Penske Racing)
76 Nic Jonsson/Darren Turner/Ricardo Zonta (Krohn Racing)
01 Scott Dixon/Juan Pablo Montoya/Scott Pruett/Memo Rojas (Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates)
10 Max Angelelli/Brian Frisselle/Pedro Lamy/Wayne Taylor (SunTrust Racing)
02 Scott Dixon/Dario Franchitti/Alex Lloyd/Scott Pruett (Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates)
59 Joao Barbosa/Terry Borcheller/JC France/Hurley Haywood (Brumos Racing)
55 Christophe Bouchut/Raphael Matos/Scott Tucker/Ed Zabinski (Level 5 Motorsports)
99 Jon Fogarty/Alex Gurney/Jimmie Johnson/Jimmy Vasser (GAINSCO/Bob Stallings Racing)
60 Colin Braun/Ryan Hunter-Reay/Oswaldo Negri/Mark Patterson (Michael Shank Racing)
13 Jared Beyer/David Martinez/Jordan Taylor/Ricky Taylor (Beyer Racing)
61 David Empringham/John Farano/Alex Figge/Burt Frisselle/Mark Wilkins (AIM Autosport)
09 Guy Cosmo/Jason Pridmore/Scott Russell/Jeff Ward (Spirit of Daytona Racing)
77 Matteo Bobbi/Memo Gidley/Fabrizio Gollin/Brad Jaeger (Doran Racing)
75 Oliver Gavin/Tracy Krohn/Eric van de Poele (Krohn Racing)
45 Leo Hindery Jr./Bill Lester/Darren Manning/Kyle Petty (Victory Junction-Orbit Racing)
6 A.J. Allmendinger/Ian James/John Pew/Michael Valiante (Michael Shank Racing)
2 Rob Finlay /Casey Mears/Danica Patrick/Andy Wallace (Childress-Howard Motorsports)
22 Ryan Dalziel/Carlos de Quesada/Chapman Ducote/Jean-Francois Dumoulin/Tomas Enge (Alegra Motorsports)
7 Timo Bernhard/Ryan Briscoe (Penske Racing)

PICK: I'm not a big sports car guy, but I do watch occasionally. In an upset, I see A.J. Allemendinger and the Michael Shank team driving through the field and ending the Ganassi domination of this event.

You may be wondering what SPEED will be doing during the nine hours they are off the air tomorrow night and Sunday morning.

The smartass would say "let me guess, the same episode of Pinks, Unique Whips, or Chop, Cut and Rebuild for the 100th time or 172 straight hours of Barrett-Jackson instead of actual racing!"

Well, SPEED will actually fulfill their purpose and air (GASP) REAL racing while they are off the air from Daytona. NASCAR moved the Toyota All-Star Showdown, which features their Camping World East and West stars, to January this year in order to avoid the fact that the event in the past has come before the end of the season (i.e. the regional series have raced at Phoenix in November after this race was run in October).

Preliminaries are tonight at 10 EST on SPEED, with the 250-lap main event tomorrow night once again at 10. Irwindale is a great track, problem is, it's in California. The green flag will not even fly until 11:30 for us back east tomorrow night, although for my fellow SNL fans, staying up until 1 or 2 on a Saturday night is nothing new (and SNL is a repeat tomorrow night, so we have that going for us).

NASCAR decided to open this event up to everyone at some point, so we will see some ringers in this event from the national series, namely Matt Crafton, Ron Hornaday Jr., and Joey Logano. Amongst the young talent, keep an eye on Brian Ickler, Trevor Bayne, Ricky Carmichael (who will run 14 events in the Truck Series for KHI), and Austin Dillon, to name a few. And don't forget about Steve Park, who has returned to the Camping World East Series after failing to secure a ride in Cup, Nationwide, or Camping World Truck competition.

Sprint Cup Preview: Truex, McMurray, Hamlin, Bowyer

Hollis Warren — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 18:28:00 -0500

Before looking at the 13th-16th ranked teams, a couple pieces of news from today:

-Burger King will sponsor Tony Stewart at Daytona in July and Dover in September. Rumors have been flying around since last summer that BK would be joining SHR, although I figured it would be as the sponsor for Newman when the Army was not on the 39 car.

Now would be the perfect opportunity to turn this into a joke, but after picking Tony to finish 20th in points yesterday, I think I'll lay off of the slightly rotund driver today.

The paint scheme is horrendous, at least compared to past BK cars (i.e. Nemechek and Park in the 90s and Reutimann two years ago). No flames?

Come on, your signature is the flame-broiled Whopper! Look on the bright side: at least the King isn't anywhere on the car to cause a 30-car wreck at the Coke Zero 400.

-Armando Fitz apparently will live on and not have to worry about his creditors hunting him down and beating him to death in an alley anymore, as he sold the majority of his team to Chicago businessman Arthur Shelton.

No word yet on who will drive the Nationwide car, but Chase Austin will pilot a Truck for the team, and Jarit Johnson (Jimmie's baby bro) will be behind the wheel for the team in Camping World East competition.

13. MARTIN TRUEX JR.

Age: 28
Hometown: Mayetta, NJ
No. 1 Bass Pro Shops Chevy
Crew Chief: Kevin Manion
Owner: Teresa Earnhardt/Chip Ganassi/Felix Sabates

After qualifying for the Chase in his second year, Truex's third year at the Cup level did not live up to expectations. Many people believed he would take the next step, win multiple races, and contend for a title, even without the presence of teammate and good pal Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Instead, Truex fell to 15th in points, and never tasted victory lane. Grudgingly, he resigned with DEI/EGR for at least one more season, although you have to believe if the performance does not improve, he will take Bass Pro elsewhere.

Martin would have been in Chase contention right down to the wire in Richmond if it were not for a huge points penalty handed down at Daytona in July. The Truex/Manion combination clearly works well, and I look for them to bounce back and win a couple races in 2009.

Qualifying for the Chase will be difficult, but it is not out of the question. Aside from no longer being at the mercy of Teresa Earnhardt and Max Siegel's questionable decision-making, the merger with Ganassi will not really impact this team, but Truex should enjoy the working partnership with Juan Pablo Montoya.

14. JAMIE McMURRAY

Age: 32
Hometown: Joplin, MO
No. 26 Crown Royal/Irwin Tools Ford
Crew Chief: Donnie Wingo
Owner: Jack Roush/John Henry

Entering his fourth season at Roush-Fenway, the pressure is certainly on Jamie McMurray to take the next step and contend on a weekly basis. While Kenseth, Biffle, and Edwards win races and contend for the championship, McMurray is great some weeks and off others.

If the performance doesn't improve in 2009, especially with the drivers available at Jack Roush's fingertips from his development pool, McMurray will likely be out of a job.

But even with that grim reality, Jamie is set up to succeed this season. He will be reunited with Donnie Wingo, who was his crew chief for the three years he spent at Ganassi; seasons that finished in 13th, 11th, and 12th places.

Plus, McMurray became much more consistent down the stretch in 2008 with Larry Carter as crew chief, finishing third in each of the final three races. Look for Jamie Mac and Wingo to hit on all cylinders in '09, and do not be surprised if they are in the Chase.

15. DENNY HAMLIN

Age: 28
Hometown: Chesterfield, VA
No. 11 FedEx Toyota
Crew Chief: Mike Ford
Owner: Joe Gibbs

After finishing third in points his rookie season, Denny Hamlin has followed that up with two very good seasons, but inconsistency has doomed him to the back half of the Chase each time.

When he came out of the gate so strong in 2006, I figured that he had the makings of a future Cup champion, but now I am not so sure. Hamlin and the 11 team have seemed to level off, and played third fiddle to both the 18 and 20 last season.

Seeing how Tony Stewart gone and Kyle Busch still just 23, Hamlin is now the veteran by default at JGR, believe it or not. With that comes the extra responsibility of being a leader on and off the track, and I just do not see those qualities in Hamlin.

Denny is never the one to blame when something goes wrong. It's always someone else's fought. My assessment may be harsh, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see the 11 sneak into the Chase once again. There are probably 20 teams capable of making it in 2009, but Hamlin was not one of the lucky 12 to be selected by me.

16. CLINT BOWYER

Age: 29
Hometown: Emporia, KS
No. 33 Cheerios/Betty Crocker/BB&T Chevy
Crew Chief: Shane Wilson
Owner: Richard Childress

All was fine and dandy in Clint Bowyer's world the past two years. He picked up a Nationwide title, won his first Cup race, piloted the Jack Daniel's car, qualified for the Chase two years in a row, and had familiar relationships with an absolute hottie.

Fast forward to 2009, and Richard Childress has exiled his youngest Cup driver to the new fourth team, being sponsored by General Mills.

Bowyer will still have the great equipment he has been accustomed to receiving the past few seasons, but making the Chase for a third year in a row will be difficult. He will be working with an entirely new set of people, including crew chief Shane Wilson, without testing to get used to one another.

And I don't care if you are Childress, Hendrick, Roush, or whoever, adding a new team to an existing operation and being immediately successful is not an easy task. Especially when you have to qualify on time for the first five races.

2009 Sprint Cup Preview: Kahne, Montoya, Mears, Stewart

Hollis Warren — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 18:33:00 -0500

To prove to you how indecisive I am with these picks, I reshuffled my entire 13th-20th rankings this morning driving to work. How I managed to dodge insane Delaware drivers and think at the same time, we may never know. This comes a day after I switched out one of my 12 preseason Chase drivers. We'll get to those guys at the end of the week or this weekend. Just be patient.

Anyways, it is time to continue on with the Sprint Cup Preview, as the 17th through 20th slots have several big-time names.

17. KASEY KAHNE

Age: 28
Hometown: Enumclaw, WA
No. 9 Budweiser Dodge
Crew Chief: Kenny Francis
Owner: George Gillett/Richard Petty/Ray Evernham

I'm going to start calling Kahne the Enumclaw Enigma. 23rd in points in 2005, 8th in '06, 19th in '07, and 14th last season. As was the case for much of 2008, Kasey and the 9 team can't make up their minds if they want to be an elite team or simply a good one. There is a lot of potential here, but for some reason, they cannot get over that proverbial hump and into the sport's top echelon.

I think the main issues with the nine bunch are a lack of consistency, even at their best tracks, lack of continuity (changing owners every 15 minutes cannot be good for team morale), and the fact that they often struggle at any track that isn't a 1.5 mile tri-oval. Kahne is marketable and talented, but the GEM team (and Dodge horsepower in general) may be holding him back.

The addition of Richard Petty to the ownership team will not have an impact on Kahne's on-track performance, but maybe the King can give the team a pep talk every now and then.

18. JUAN PABLO MONTOYA

Age: 33
Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
No. 42 Target/Wrigley Chevy
Crew Chief: Brian Pattie
Owner: Teresa Earnhardt/Chip Ganassi/Felix Sabates

JPM's sophomore season in stock cars was a major disappointment, as the Colombian finished 25th in points. A driver of his caliber should not be back in the land of David Gilliland and Paul Menard in the final standings. But Dodge teams as a whole struggled in 2008, and it has to be a relief for Montoya to be moving to a Chevy operation. Let's face it, EGR is not Hendrick or Childress, but they should still give Juan Pablo the chance to succeed.

While 2008 was an uphill battle, the 42 team started to show signs of life during the Chase, just as the communication between Pattie and Montoya was beginning to gel. The finishes may not have been there, but you have to remember he had a shot of winning the event at Texas.

I look for this team to be a pleasant surprise at the intermediate tracks in 2009, and of course, JPM will rule the road. If other areas of their program can pick up, Montoya may be able to finish higher than 18th.

19. CASEY MEARS

Age: 30
Hometown: Bakersfield, CA
No. 07 Jack Daniel’s Chevy
Crew Chief: Gil Martin
Owner: Richard Childress

Casey Mears had great opportunities at both Ganassi and Hendrick, but failed to deliver for the most part. Somehow, he has earned himself a third chance in a prime seat, which I guess is the benefit of being young, good-looking, and sponsor savvy. He will be paired up with a team and crew chief that has made the Chase the past two seasons with Clint Bowyer, which for someone trying to prove themselves, could be a major asset.

I believe one of Mears' problems at Hendrick was constantly living in the shadow of Gordon, Johnson, Busch, and later Earnhardt Jr. While Burton, Harvick, and Bowyer are all great wheelmen, none of them are really headline grabbers. Maybe this will allow Casey to relax, focus, and deliver.

I've never been high on Casey's driving ability, but with a strong team surrounding him and the need to perform as strong as it has ever been, he could sneak up on people and challenge for a Chase berth in 2009.

20. TONY STEWART

Age: 37
Hometown: Columbus, IN
No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevy
Crew Chief: Darian Grubb
Owner: Tony Stewart/Gene Haas

The last time an owner/driver won a race? Ricky Rudd at Martinsville in fall 1998. In today's NASCAR, serving in this dual role, and being highly effective at both, is next to impossible. Sure, Robby Gordon and Michael Waltrip run teams, but their on-track results leave a lot to be desired (but this was also the case before they became owner/drivers). If anyone is going to bring success back to this dying breed, it is going to be Tony Stewart.

Stewart is a man of many projects: owning Eldora, owning teams in World of Outlaws, Midgets, and Sprint Cup, and driving in Cup to top it off. He obviously has the ability to put in the hours necessary to run a successful Cup team, but that's not to say he is going to immediately be a Chase driver out of the gate.

While this team will receive help from Hendrick and is essentially Gene Haas' team from a year ago, there will be tons of new people and cars that must be put in place. This will be a year of adjustment for Stewart off the track, and a year of growth for SHR on it.

Don't be discouraged if Tony slips to 15th or 20th in the standings making this difficult move in 2009, because I think we will see that 14 team running towards the front on a weekly basis a year from now.

In closing, some late-breaking, but good news: Aric Almirola will run a third full-time entry for EGR (the third team was up in the air as of last week, after everyone spent the entire holiday season figuring EGR would run four full-time entries) while the team will field a fourth car at Daytona. My prediction for the driver? Mike Wallace.

Blogspot Timestamps

Hollis Warren — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 22:40:00 -0500

Obviously, by now I am no longer a Blogspot virgin, but I just realized that the entry timestamp shows the time when the entry is started, and not the time it is posted. I got home from work between 5:30 and 5:45 today, ate a quick dinner, and then started tonight's entry. There's no way it was done at 6:18 PM. More like 8:18 PM while watching The Big Bang Theory (which included an hour break to watch Seinfeld and The Simpsons...that puppy below took about an hour to crank out hahaha). Anyone know if there is a way to change it, so the timestamp is displayed as the time when the entry was completed and posted?

2009 Sprint Cup Preview: 21st-25th

Hollis Warren — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 18:18:00 -0500

Before we get to the moment we have all been waiting for, the first day of the Media Tour brought a lot of news. Here's a quick recap:

-Scott Riggs, and not Dave Blaney as originally expected, will drive Tommy Baldwin Jr.'s No. 36 Toyota. Methinks Riggs is bringing State Water Heaters and/or Hunt Brothers Pizza, his sponsors at Haas last season, to the table.

-Verizon's buyout of Alltel will force them from the side of David Stremme's car and onto Penske's Nationwide machine, where Justin Allgaier will run a full season. I think that kid has a bright future, and he will definitely have great resources to work with.

Verizon will continue to foot the bill for the No. 12 car, but no logos will appear identifying the company, i.e. Marlboro's former sponsorship of Penske's IndyCar teams. I can't wait to hear NASCAR and Sprint's response!

-Tony Stewart will drive a car in the Nationwide season opener for Rick Hendrick. The Car number will be 80, and HendrickCars.com will sponsor.

-Yates Racing has moved the points accumulated by the No. 28 team last season to the No. 96, meaning Bobby Labonte will be locked in through the first five events. Travis Kvapil apparently will still run full-time, and I am sure Yates is doing this just to ensure his fully sponsored cars have guaranteed spots.

Kvapil shouldn't have too much to worry about if he is full-time, unless rain becomes a factor during California, Vegas, Atlanta, or Bristol qualifying.

-Gillett-Evernham Motorsports will now be known as Richard Petty Motorsports, which ironically enough is RPM. Judging by last season, the Dodge boys can use all the RPM they can get.

In other news, it appears as if McDonald's and Valvoline will sponsor the No. 43 car in some shape or another, while I also found a paint scheme of a No. 44 Valvoline car. It seems as if RPM has changed the 10 car's number to 44, and will run the first five races with A.J. Allmendinger before making a decision to continue full-time or not.

A disclaimer before we begin: I know several magazines (such as Athlon Sports), count down the drivers in their predicted order of finish. I have yet to pick any of those publications up this offseason, so my picks will not be influenced in any way. All similarities are purely coincidental.

21. BOBBY LABONTE

Age: 44
Hometown: Corpus Christi, TX
No. 96 Ask.com/Texas Instruments DLP Ford
Crew Chief: Todd Parrott?
Owner: Jeff Moorad/Tom Garfinkel/Doug Yates

Last year, Doug Yates gave birth to a revamped Yates Racing operation. Travis Kvapil and David Gilliland took the first baby steps. And now, Bobby Labonte is being counted on to walk, talk, and run all the way back into the NASCAR elite.

This was a great signing by both owner and driver, as it gives Yates a proven champion to rely on, while Labonte of course was unemployed at this point a week ago.

While sponsorship seems to be the biggest roadblock in Yates' way, there are about 25 other teams who feel as if they can win on any given Sunday.

So don't expect Labonte to go out there and contend for a championship, or even a Chase berth, in 2009. I believe, and I may be alone on this, that Bobby can still be competitive and challenge for victories on a regular basis.

But for the time being, don't expect any miracles out of this operation in the new year. But they will put forth a solid effort and always come home in one piece.

22. BRIAN VICKERS

Age: 25
Hometown: Thomasville, NC
No. 83 Red Bull Toyota
Crew Chief: Ryan Pemberton
Owner: Dietrich Mateschitz

Team Red Bull A came out of the gate strongly in 2008, partially because they didn't want to spend another season qualifying for races on time, and partially because it's expected that a second-year team should improve.

There should be further development from the No. 82 and No. 83 teams in 2009, but a couple of major factors point me to relegating Vickers to outside the top 20 entering the new campaign.

The Thomasville, N.C. native will have to adjust to his third crew chief in three years, and while Ryan Pemberton is certainly capable, Kevin Hamlin and Vickers formed a great working relationship a year ago.

Additionally, the 83 team, after contending for the Chase in late summer, seemed to run out of gas and fell to 19th in the standings. The season is a marathon, and to be a serious contender, they will have to run up front consistently. They seem to have hit the setups at a few tracks, but struggle greatly at others.

23. JOEY LOGANO (rookie)

Age: 18
Hometown: Middletown, CT
No. 20 Home Depot Toyota
Crew Chief: Greg Zippadelli
Owner: Joe Gibbs

Exactly a decade ago, an unknown driver burst onto the Cup scene and immediately became a contender. Now that Tony Stewart has moved on to his own team, an even more celebrated rookie slides into the 20 seat.

Joey Logano has been talked about as being the next superstar of the sport since the time he was 14 or 15 years old. Now that he is in the limelight, how will he handle the expectations?

I would not expect any miracles from Sliced Bread in 2009, although I do like him to beat out Scott Speed for rookie of the year honors. After all, the kid is...well, a kid. 18 year olds with a half year in the Nationwide Series do not immediately succeed in Sprint Cup competition.

If you are looking for a comparison, I expect his rookie season to be more along the lines of Jeff Gordon's (which went terribly) than those of Jimmie Johnson or Stewart. But with an experienced crew and team behind him, Logano will be meeting the immense expectations we all have for him before long.

24. RYAN NEWMAN

Age: 31
Hometown: South Bend, IN
No. 39 US Army (22 races)/TBA Chevy
Crew Chief: Tony Gibson
Owner: Tony Stewart/Gene Haas

Even though he won the Daytona 500 last season, it became obvious that the Rocket Man had run his course at Penske. I guess not having Rusty Wallace to bicker with the past few years was just too much to handle.

When Newman won eight races in his sophomore season of 2003, I think many people believed he would become an annual championship contender. But that never happened. Moving into the GM camp with Tony Stewart's new operation should, in time, give him that opportunity.

Newman fans should not get their hopes too high for this season, however. While Stewart has brought in a long list of talented people to the Haas operation, including crew chief Tony Gibson, this is essentially an entirely new team.

And with the testing ban, Ryan will have limited chances to practice his communication with the crew prior to Speedweeks. As we all know, there is normal driver lingo, and then there is Ryan Newman engineer talk.

This will be an adjustment year for both the 14 and 39 teams, but I expect each to improve immensely as the year moves forward, with a win or two in the forecast.

25. DAVID STREMME

Age: 31
Hometown: South Bend, IN
No. 12 Verizon Dodge
Crew Chief: Roy McCauley
Owner: Roger Penske

I considered several drivers for the last spot in my top 25, such as Robby Gordon, David Reutimann, and Travis Kvapil. But I went with David Stremme. Stremme has a lot to prove in what will be his best opportunity to date.

After two subpar years with Ganassi in '06 and '07, he clearly needs to perform up to task with the 12 team in 2009, because not too many people get third chances in this business.

There will be a wealth of knowledge and strong equipment surrounding him, starting with Daytona 500 winning crew chief Roy McCauley. The 12 team, and Penske Racing South for that matter, is not what it once was.

Losing Ryan Newman hurts, but Stremme can step in and be a solid performer on a week-to-week basis. Don't be surprised if he comes closer to equaling Newman's 17th place finish last year.

At the very least, Stremme should record several top tens, and may have a day or two where he challenges for the victory.

Is Todd Parrott going to be Bobby Labonte's crew chief?

Hollis Warren — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 22:12:00 -0500

Based on the information we have been given this winter, Todd Parrott was going to remain with Travis Kvapil and the 28 team this season as crew chief. But with the 28 and 38 teams sponsorship situations unsettled, and Bobby Labonte and Paul Menard being the only sure things at Yates Racing as of today, that may no longer be the case.

With NASCAR's week-long Shits and Giggles Tour kicking off tomorrow (the PC name would be the NASCAR Media Tour, but I get the opinion they do this just to amuse the sponsors and members of the media...I know the drivers don't like it), I managed to track down some of the events on the schedule thanks to an article written by Lee Spencer.

It's interesting to note what I have in bold italics about "Labonte regaining past magic with Todd Parrott."

Parrott and Labonte spent the 2006 season together with Petty Enterprises, and at least the text above/below suggests they are reuniting.

Of course, this could be a misleading statement, and in reality, it just refers to the fact that Labonte and Parrott will be working together the same organization again, but not necessarily on the same team. We'll have to wait and see until Tuesday.

If something happens that Doug Yates cannot get full funding for Travis Kvapil and cuts back his third team to a part-time effort (which some rumors going around suggest, but I am not going to take it as fact until Yates releases something official about the status of the 28 and 38 cars, Kvapil, and David Gilliland), I definitely see the 2000 series champion Labonte and 1999 championship crew chief Parrott pairing up on the 96 car.

Like several other teams, there are still a lot of questions to be answered regarding driver and sponsor lineups at Yates. Hopefully, for the sake of the drivers and crew members affected, deals will be solidified within the next couple of weeks before heading down to Daytona.

Monday

Meet the Penske Racing crew—Five years ago, who would've ever imagined that Kurt Busch would be the senior Penske stock car driver? Can David Stremme turn the No. 12's luck around? Will Sam Hornish Jr. ever get the feel of a stock car?
GEM—Petty is in. Evernham is out under the Gillett banner. Will the new partnership thrive? Can Kasey Kahne overcome the late summer jinx? Does Elliott Sadler believe in second chances? Will a fresh start for Reed Sorenson make a difference? And will AJ Allmendinger find a happy home at GEM?
Speedway Motorsports Inc.—There's something new cooking at Lowe's Motor Speedway. What does O. Bruton Smith have planned for his hometown track?
Richard Childress Racing—R.C. had a phenomenal run in 2008; can his Chase trifecta of Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer keep up that pace? Will newcomer Casey Mears acclimate to the RCR system and be the fourth Childress driver to race for the championship in the postseason?

Tuesday

Bobby Labonte breaks his silence—The ink is barely dry on Labonte's contract with Yates but it's becoming increasingly clear that cards fell in his favor. Will the 2000 champion be able to regain the magic he had with crew chief Todd Parrott?
The Nationwide Tour—Will the Triple A series reinvent itself as a stepping stone to Sprint Cup racing or continue its identity crisis with shrinking fields?
Speed Channel open house and Sprint Cup All-Star and Coca-Cola 600 Announcement.
The House that Coach Gibbs built—What's life like without Tony Stewart and with Denny Hamlin as the senior teammate? Can Kyle Busch continue his winning ways? Will it be growing pains or gains for Joey Logano?

Wednesday

Meet the New Boss—Stewart-Haas Racing opens its doors
Dynasty Central—Hendrick Motorsports has won the last three Cup championships; can anyone stop this juggernaut? Can Jimmie Johnson make it four titles? Will the Jeff Gordon of old re-emerge? The pressure is off Dale Earnhardt Jr., with one year in the No. 88 Chevrolet but now it's go time. Mark Martin has all the Hendrick tools at his disposal and will be a player in the Chase. Brad Keselowski shone in the Nationwide Series, but will his transition to Cup be easy?
An Evening with the Bull—Red Bull Racing finished strong in 2008. With the addition of Ryan Pemberton to lead the No. 83 team, Brian Vickers will flourish. Scott Speed has a solid shot at the rookie title under the direction of veteran Jimmy Elledge. GM Jay Frye took his new generals to observe Red Bull's Formula One operation in Milton Keynes, UK, last week to gather fresh ideas.

Thursday

Blue Oval and Beyond—Roush Fenway Racing continues to run the Ford show with three drivers having finished in the top 10. Carl Edwards and the No. 99 team is pumped up and poised for a title run. Matt Kenseth's team is retooled and renewed. RFR veteran Greg Biffle has titles in trucks and Nationwide but still yearns for the Cup. David Ragan and Jamie McMurray both made most-improved lists, but Mac's reunion with Donnie Wingo could be the impetus for a Chase run.
A New Look for Yates/Hall of Fame—Labonte and Paul Menard will provide fresh faces at Yates/HoF, but what's the future for Travis Kvapil? Is he just warming the seat for Colin Braun and Ricky Stenhouse?
Back to Basics—The Wood Brothers were at their best when the No. 21 Ford ran on a limited basis. That appears to be the game plan—for now.
Hot Rod Lunch with Tony Schumacher
NASCAR State of the Union—Traditionally, this has been an opening-day event. With no Daytona testing and Speedweeks less than a month away, it will be interesting to hear the spin for 2009. This is NASCAR's opportunity to unveil any significant rule changes (perhaps some miracle to keep the Camping World Truck Series afloat?) The diversity candidates will also be announced along with the program's new initiatives.

The 2009 Sprint Cup Preview and Bad Predictions Extravaganza Begins Tomorrow

Hollis Warren — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 14:14:00 -0500

I'm just giving everyone about 30 hours notice before we begin the yearly tradition of making poor predictions surrounding the new NASCAR season just around the corner.

Tomorrow, we start off with the top 25 countdown and teams 21-25. Where I list my predictions as to how the points standings will shake down when all is said and done in November.

That will follow with a preview of the remaining full-time teams/drivers, as well as a few of the part-time teams planning on running a significant portion of the schedule.

If time allows as Speedweeks approaches, I will also take a look at the Nationwide Series and Truck Series. And judging by the number of confirmed full-time entries at least in the latter, it probably won't take long (which is a shame).

Conference Championship Previews

Hollis Warren — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 20:00:00 -0500

Well, we are down to the final four in the NFL, and what a surprising final four it is. There is a two seed, a four seed, and both six seeds remaining in the bracket with a shot to win Super Bowl XLIII. For some reason, I am not as excited as usual about championship weekend...maybe it has something to do with the possibility of seeing the hated Eagles in the Super Bowl haha. But hey, these should be two great games no matter who you pull for or despise.

Last week, I went 2-2 in my picks, a vast improvement over the 1-3 record during the wild card round. So to whomever I pick as the conference champions below, I am sorry in advance for placing a curse on you. On to the game previews:

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: (6) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT (4) ARIZONA CARDINALS
TV: 3 PM Sunday on FOX
Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman
Location: University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ
Kickoff forecast: 71 F, sunny
Last meeting: the Eagles opened a can of whoopass in Philadelphia on Thanksgiving night, defeating the Cardinals 48-20 (Week 13)
Officials: R Walt Anderson, U Undrey Wash, HL Kent Payne, LJ Tom Barnes, FJ Jim Saracino, SJ Greg Meyer, BJ Scott Helverson

The Eagles simply gave the Cardinals (or Buzzsaw, as they are becoming known as in the blogosphere) the business on Thanksgiving. Usually, turkeys are the only birds getting carved up on Turkey Day, but not that night. But I don't think that game was representative of Arizona, seeing how they had to travel from Phoenix to Philadelphia on a short week, after an excruciating game against the Giants nevertheless.

I don't think we can completely blame them for that poor showing on national television.

As well as Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald are playing, Arizona has gotten this far because of their defense. They have forced both Atlanta and Carolina away from their bread and butter, the running game, and capitalized on mistakes. This was a unit that was average at best during the season, but like the Colts two years ago, could be finding their groove at just the right time.

Philadelphia provides another challenging test for the D, as they will have to slow down Donovan McNabb, DeSean Jackson, and a less-than-100% Brian Westbrook. As proven last week, McNabb is back to running the ball on designed passing plays, and we all know how dangerous he is with his legs.

Offensively, they will need to find a way to protect Warner, and use a balanced attack so Jim Johnson just doesn't tee off on the passer all afternoon.

Philly's defense is playing great football, but they will be hard pressed trying to put the clamp on Warner, especially in front of a charged up crowd at University of Phoenix Stadium. They need to force turnovers and get pressure on Warner to win this game, and I think they are up to the challenge.

But in a minor upset, I am taking the Cardinals to achieve their first Super Bowl trip. A key matchup to keep an eye on: Larry Fitzgerald's size advantage over Philadelphia's small, but very physical, corners. The Eagles haven't given up a passing touchdown in five games, but I expect that streak to end on Sunday.

PICK: Cardinals 27 Eagles 24

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: (6) BALTIMORE RAVENS AT (2) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
TV: 6:30 PM Sunday on CBS
Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms
Location: Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, PA
Kickoff forecast: 24 F, cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers
Last meeting: the Steelers won in Baltimore 13-9 (Week 15) to sweep the season series after winning in Pittsburgh 23-20 (Week 4)
Officials: R Bill Carollo, U Ruben Fowler, HL Ed Camp, LJ Byron Boston, FJ Gary Cavaletto, SJ Scott Steenson, BJ Tony Steratore

We always hear stories about how difficult it is to beat the same team three times in a season, and that is what the Steelers are faced with entering the AFC Championship Game. But nothing's impossible, just ask Joe Flacco, the first QB to ever win two playoff games. Pittsburgh has to be confident over the fact that the Ravens are 1-7 in the Steel City since 2001, but in a game and rivalry as meaningful as this one, throw all numbers out.

I think it is quite obvious that the defenses will play a huge role in whom represents the AFC in Super Bowl XLIII. But when all is said and done, one of these offenses is going to have to find a way to move the ball and put some points on the board, although I am sure both are hoping their defense will help them out. The Ravens struggled mightily to gain positive yardage on the Titans, and really only won because of Tennessee's turnover issues and the field position battle.

If they want to go into Heinz Field and upset the Steelers, they are going to have to get pressure on Roethlisberger, force him into an interception or fumble, and capitalize on the opportunity, and hope Sam Koch has another monster game punting the ball. I just don't think you can count on LeRon McLain, the running game, or Flacco having much success in this contest.

The keys for Pittsburgh are pretty much the same: run the ball effectively, control field position, create mistakes, and avoid mistakes. But they do have one decisive advantage (besides the obvious one, home-field): Big Ben Roethlisberger. Joe Flacco doesn't play like a rookie, but I'd still take Roethlisberger's five years and Super Bowl ring in any scenario. The guy is beat up, but continues to be a warrior and leader for the Steelers offense.

This will be a hell of a game between two teams that frankly don't think much of the other. A relatively new NFL rivalry, Baltimore-Pittsburgh has been gaining steam in recent years thanks to the old-school, smashmouth approaches utilized by each team. This will turn into a classic defensive battle that lifts the rivalry up to an entirely new level, and I look for Pittsburgh to win by creating a Flacco turnover at a key moment in the game.

PICK: Steelers 17 Ravens 10