Bleacher Report - Articles by Greg Richardson

Early Pac 10 Football Predictions

Greg Richardson — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 16:55:00 -0400

Before I walk through my early predictions (I reserve the right to tweak these based on Fall camp injuries and eligibility outcomes) keep in mind the biases I have in evaluating college football teams:

1.) Historical performance most importantly the previous season. Filter that with injuries, turnover margin and schedule to project the coming year

2.) Returning talent. A combination of experience and talent based on previous AllP10 honors and recruiting rankings

3.) Big emphasis on the two lines. The biggest correlation to winning at the BCS level in college football is control of the LOS on both sides of the ball

4.) Schedule. Home field advantage especially in big games can be a difference maker

5.) Depth. Competition results in players pushing themselves and injuries are a part of the game

6.) Coaching. This is a constant and creates the tone and culture of a program. Bad coaches never win, average coaches only win on occasion, good coaches win more often than not and great coaches almost never have bad seasons.

This is an interesting year for the P10. USC isn't the obvious NC contender as they have been the past five years but they and Cal are clearly a notch above the rest of the conference. From third to ninth in the conference, it's going to be a dog fight. Injuries could be critical as teams like UCLA, Stanford and Oregon State are talented but thin.

With that long preamble, here's how I see the season going:

1.) Cal - Let's start on defense, where the Bears return nine starters. I count Mohammed as a starter as he was the teams leading tackler from the LB position last year and arguably their best all around linebacker.

The defense should be very salty in 2009 as a result of that returning experience. Especially as the strength of the group is up front with three studs in Alualu, Hill, and Jordan. The secondary will be among the nations best and the talent level everywhere is at an all time high in Berkeley.

Depth on the DL and LB are the only real concerns as the loss of Mohammed, Alualu or Jordan would be hard to overcome. Offensively, there is also reason for optimism although more guarded than on defense.

The Bears passing game can only get better as the OL gets needed depth and lots of returning experience and Kevin Riley returns all of his key receivers from last years and adds some needed young talent.

Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen are both home run threats who can catch and run equally well out of the backfield. Beyond the needed improvement in the passing game, replacing Cameron Morrah at TE will not be easy and the loss of blocking fullback Will Tafuo is a hit to the running game.

The Bears need to prove that they can win in November against good teams and win road games against inferior opponents. The schedule is rougher than it looks at first glance. Back to back to back games early at Minnesota, vs. USC, and at Oregon will not be easy nor will P10 tilts on the road against improved UCLA and Stanford squads.

2.) USC - Too much focus is being put on the inexperience at the quarterback position. Aaron Corp will be in his third season for the Trojans and will be taking snaps behind the nation's best offensive line, a good group of wideouts including a potential AA and arguably the deepest corps of running backs in America.

While we may see more mistakes than normal and perhaps a late game breakdown on the road, this Trojan team is going to put up points, lots of them.

Defensively, they will take a step back from last years record setting group, but the talent and depth are as good as ever. If the DL and LBs can stay healthy and get good production from some unproven DTs and ILBs, USC will give up points very grudgingly.

The schedule is the Trojans biggest concern. Road tilts against Ohio State and Cal early in the year are going to be daunting. I actually see USC and Cal having identical P10 records with the edge to the Bears being a win in Berkeley in early October.

Were the two teams to play in LA or later in the year, I'm not sure my prediction would have been the same.

There's a BIG drop off after the Trojans and Bears but the next five teams are all good enough to go bowling and any one of them could end up in 3rd place.

3.) Arizona: This is a solid Wildcat team, with more talent and depth than at any time in the Stoops era. They could easily finish as high as third if they find a quarterback. There are plenty of playmakers on offense with two good tailbacks in Grigsby and Antolin and a solid corps of WRs return led by Dean and Turner.

Arizona also boasts the nations top TE in Gronkowski and they appear to have the makings of a serviceable OL. There will be a new starter at QB and neither of the candidates has any real experience. That's a potential challenge given the pass happy offense favored by OC Sonny Dykes.

However, Dykes had a good track record of breaking in new QBs at Texas Tech and is dealing with more highly touted recruits this time around. Defensively, this unit will not embarrass the defensive minded Stoops although it's not quite at the caliber of the elite P10 units.

They return all four lineman but the group is undersized with no real standouts. The back seven are better with an athletic LB crew and a tough secondary led by Devin Ross and Cam Nelson.

4.) UCLA: I see the Bruins making a big jump this year. Their defense will be as good as any in the P10 and their offense will improve at least enough to avoid scoring points for the opposition as they did throughout last year.

Their OL was atrocious last season as they started with concerns only to see the nations worst injury bug hit that position group. While the offense lacks playmakers, they have solid talent at WR, RB, and TE.

Their defense returns nine starters including arguably the conference's best DT in Brian Price and the best cover cornerback in Verner. Masking the Bruins melt down last year was their atrocious TO margin and loads of injuries. Their luck should change around injuries as TOs, leading to a bowl appearance this year.

5.) Stanford: The Cardinal are solid along both lines, return a stud running back and welcome a quarterback who I believe will be a multiple time AP10 performer.

Andrew Luck was one of those kids whose HS film was off the charts. He played for a prep team that gave him no pass protection whatsoever and still he was able to put up big time numbers.

His accuracy will remind you of former Cardinal and current Buffalo Bills starter, Trent Edwards, only Luck will have the benefit of playing behind an offensive line that is among the P10s best as well as Toby Gerhart's ability to force defenses to play the run first.

Defensively, Stanford returns eight starters including three on the DL. Ekom Udofia is the star here and he is a load at NT. The linebacker group and secondary lack elite athletes but they are smart and will rely on their more talented DL to occupy blockers and harass QBs.

Stanford's schedule is ideal with seven home games and road games against weak Washington State and Wake Forest teams.

6.) Oregon: Despite a plethora of offensive skill position talent and a good secondary, the Ducks are not at the level that saw them earn second in the P10 in 2008. They are rebuilding their offensive line and while the talent is there, it will take time for this group to master the zone blocking scheme required by Chip Kelly's offense.

Their defensive line is in worse shape as they lack experience and have virtually no depth. As good as Masoli and Blount are and as prolific as Kelly's scheme has been, without up front blocking on offense and some ability to slow teams down on defense, it could be a rough first year for Coach Kelly.

This will prove to be a bitter pill as the Ducks have real talent in their secondary with underrated FS TJ Ward and stud cornerback Walter Thurmond. But with no pass rush, this secondary will be hard pressed to slow down opposing offenses.

The schedule looks attractive but the road opener at Boise State could get ugly early and home games in September against Utah and Cal may be occur before the OL comes together, muting the Autzen advantage. I believe 2010 will be the Ducks year as they will return almost the entire team and their last two recruiting classes have been strong.

7.) Oregon State: The Beavers face similar challenges to the Ducks along both offensive and defensive lines but have less talent behind them. That and the fact that the Civil War is in Eugene this year is all the separate the two Oregon teams.

While Mike Riley is a superior coach and a tremendous talent evaluator, this year will be a rebuilding one for his strong program. The offensive line is a key and keeping that group healthy will be vital not only for opening up holes for returning P10 offensive MVP Jacquiz Rodgers but in finding time for two solid QBs in Moevao and Canfield.

Defensively, OSU will take a step back. Stephen Paea is a future NFL player and he'll have adequate support on the DL with Ben Taylor and Kevin Frahm but this group lacks last years pass rushing skills and overall depth.

The LB crew will be solid with Kristick and Pankey leading the way but losses in the secondary alongside a less effective pass rush will result in the Beavers having to win more shootouts than normal

8.) Arizona State: The Sun Devils are going to hope their defense can score a lot of points off turnovers this season as the cupboard is awfully bare on offense. Their OL is on paper, the conference's weakest, they have no proven quarterback or tailback and only one offensive player who qualifies as a threat, that being WR Chris McGaha.

As many questions as their are on offense, that's how good their defense could be. Dexter Davis is a ferocious pass rusher and Lawrence Guy is a stout DT against the run. The LB crew is the best in the league and the secondary features two solid players in Bolden and Carr.

The schedule doesn't help as they host the conference's two best teams, taking away what might have been easier wins against the rest of the conference. There is simply not enough offense for this team to finish higher.

9.) Washington - This prediction belies the tremendous improvement this team will have in 2009. The Huskies are going to be a vastly improved team but their murderous schedule will not allow them to adequately reflect it.

Jake Locker is back and healthy and coming off a strong Spring showing. For all of the possible impact new HC Sarkisian can have, none is greater than with his talented QB. Sark is a proven QB coach and in Locker he has someone with all the tools. While Locker is not surrounded with much talent, there is plenty of experience.

The OL should be better as will the play at RB and WR. Defensively, this team lack speed and depth although EJ Savannah and Mason Foster will scare some teams from their LB positions. Still, a schedule which includes LSU, Notre Dame not to mention road games against OSU and UCLA will be tough to overcome.

10.) WSU - The Cougars are at a two decade low in terms of talent and depth. While they return 15 starters and are likely to feel more comfortable in the second year of HC Paul Wulff's regime, the horses just aren't there.

Their offense has some skill talent with running backs Tardy and Montgomery and WR Jeshua Anderson and the OL returns four starters but this is not a talented group. The QB situation is not clear with neither Lopina nor Lobbestael inspiring much confidence.

The defense returns seven starters including LBs Mattingly and Bland but not much else. Speed is real missing ingredient with this squad as is size as neither of their projected DTs goes more than 285lbs.

If WSU can somehow avoid injuries and the offensive line unit can overachieve they may surprise a few folks. The middle of the P10 just feels too tough for them to make much progress.

Cal's Passing Game: Kurt Warner's Legacy

Greg Richardson — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 15:31:00 -0400

The projections for next year's Cal football team seem to inevitably come back to one question: "Will Kevin Riley play well enough at QB for the Bears to win?"

While no one is going to argue that the quarterback is a critical position and that last year's performances by Riley and Longshore left much to be desired, the folks who are fixated on Cal's QB play would do well to keep Kurt Warner in mind.

Kurt Warner came into the NFL and promptly became the league's MVP in leading the St. Louis Rams to a Super Bowl win. His release and accuracy were picture perfect and the offense he ran could not be stopped.

Fast forward three years and Warner was suddenly incapable of avoiding bad interceptions, was missing wide open WRs and was holding onto the ball too long.

Eventually, St. Louis let him go and he followed that with a miserable stint with the NY Giants followed by a couple of mediocre campaigns with the Cardinals.

At that point, it was easy to write off Warner as a flash in the pan, a guy for whom lightning struck but eventually came back to earth as an NFL journeyman.

Only as quickly as you can say Trent Dilfer, it all changed again. In 2009, Warner was back to his 2001 form, leading Arizona to the Super Bowl.

As if by magic, the quick-fire release was back, the uncanny accuracy and the solid decision making returned and Warner was once again an elite NFL quarterback.

The truth is none of what happened to Warner is in the least surprising. American's obsession with quarterbacks has became so myopic as to make them forget that (gasp) football is actually a team game with all of the interdependencies implied with 22 men running around at full speed in organized chaos.

Warner was great early with the Rams because he played behind the league's best offensive line, who afforded him all day to survey the field and find the league's best cadre of offensive weapons: Marshall Faulk, Issac Bruce, and Torry Holt.

With the comfort and confidence that comes from being able to grab a beer and a brat before being hurried by a pass rusher and getting the ball to a bunch of Olympic track athletes, Warner became an MVP.

The recipe was nearly identical this year as Arizona's offensive line became one of the league's best in protecting the passer, while Bolden and Fitzgerald caught anything and everything thrown their way, allowing Warner to once again became Dan Marino.

And for those of you who think Warner is some kind of anomaly, how do you explain Tom Brady going from future hall of famer to truly awful in his last Super Bowl performance. The Patriots sieve-like offensive line had him running for his life and even when he did have time, his rhythm and confidence were shot.

Which leads us back to Cal. Last year's passing game woes were a diabolical mixture of poor QB play, the worst pass protection (you need to look beyond sacks allowed to include hurries and flushes, of which there were many) in the Tedford era and a group of receivers who couldn't get open, much less catch the rare perfect passes they were thrown.

Playing quarterback is the most mentally and emotionally demanding position on the field. Finding a comfort zone and building confidence are critical. Even if you aren't being sacked every play, hurries are ever bit as daunting.

Forcing balls in because your receivers have not gotten separation and then seeing them drop balls that are right in their hands impact the psyche of the quarterback.

The bottom line is that the reasons the Bears passing game was stuck in neutral last season went far beyond Riley and Longshore's struggles.

So what does all this mean for the 2009 campaign? On the surface of it, good news abounds. Starting off up front, where the Bears return eight players who have started including their best past protector from 2007, LT Mike Tepper.

Tepper's return is even bigger than his 335-pound frame might suggest. Tepper will protect Riley's blindside providing Riley with a sense of comfort missing all last season and allowing Schwartz to move to RT where his still evolving pass blocking skills can be worked on with much less pressure.

Even if the injury bug hits the OL as it did in 2008, Cal's combination of talent, experience and depth have never been better. It's hard to imagine the boys up front not providing significantly better protection this year than last.

As for the receiving corps, this news there is equally positive. All three starters from the Emerald Bowl return, including Verran Tucker, who established himself as the Bears most consistent wideout.

Experience is huge at WR as players get used to the speed of the game and fully understand the concentration required to succeed. Expect Boateng and Tucker to take big steps forward.

Joining that duo are two youngsters who actually proved to be more impressive this spring than the incumbents. Sophomores Marvin Jones and Alex Lagemann are poised to become Kevin Riley's security blankets with their combination of size and sure hands.

Add in stud sophomore Michael Calvin, who the Bear coaches considered their best receiver going into 2008 and who missed almost all of last year with a knee injury and you suddenly have a WR group that goes at least six deep with a nice blend of experience and young talent.

Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen are both exceptional pass catchers out of both the backfield and the slot providing Riley with good check down options when his primary receivers are covered and giving him the ability to throw five-yard passes that go the distance, always a favorite of quarterbacks everywhere.

No doubt Kevin Riley is going to have step up in all phases of his game. He has to hit the open receiver consistently, something that he failed to do last year.

He needs to get rid of the ball quicker and most importantly rediscover the swagger and playmaking moxie that marked his 2007 debut. Riley knows this offense cold and he has the line and playmakers around him to succeed.

His biggest challenge may be ignoring the Bear fans and pundits who want to put all of the responsibility and weight of the upcoming year on his shoulders.

If Kevin can close his ears and open his eyes to how his teammates are putting him in a position where he just needs to be average to get them to a BCS game, he will almost certainly relax and once again we will see the Kevin Riley who led Cal to the comeback win against Air Force in 2007.

Cal-Maryland: Bears Must Beware Turtle Trap

Greg Richardson — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:14:00 -0400

If I'm Jeff Tedford, I'm sweating extra hard this week. The Bears are in a no-win position heading to Maryland. This is a game that will be far more difficult than folks realize.

* Maryland looked awful barely beating Delaware and even worse losing to MTSU. As a result, Cal is a 14-point favorite on the road against a BCS conference team that went to a bowl last year and returns most of its starters. If Cal wins big, everyone will shrug. If it's close, eyebrows will be raised—and if the Bears lose, the sky will be falling. Not much upside here.

* Maryland has a ton of talent, at least on par with Michigan State. They have a future NFL running back, center, and WR on offense, and a defense that returns a ton of starters after finishing 2007 in the top 25 in total defense nationally

* Think of the Terps like Cal was in the Keith Gilbertson era: talented and capable of beating anyone on a given day, but poorly coached and wildly inconsistent. Moreover, they play down to the level of their competition.

* This is Maryland's marquee game of the year. The fan and player interest in Delaware and MTSU were close to zero. This is the game they've been thinking about all summer: It's on national TV, their pride is at stake, and they know they're playing a ranked team with a lot of talent. They are going to bring it on Saturday.

* No Pac-10 team travels as far this season as California will for this game. The team flies basically all day on Friday and then has to be ready to play at 9 am PST the next day.

* The Cal team is young and has to be feeling good about themselves after the first two games and a newly minted top 25 appearance. When they look at film of Maryland and their 1-1 record against bad competition, how can the Bears not feel a bit of overconfidence?

That's a whole lot of hand wringing given the evidence to the contrary. Despite all signs pointing towards a classic "trap" game, Cal has some big advantages.

Maryland's passing offense is nonexistent. Their O-line has struggled to give their QB time—and even with time, he's not been accurate. Their D line has yet to create any pass rush even against the less than formidable Hen and Blue Raider offensive lines. Moreover, Maryland looks sloppy and undisciplined.

The Bears should have a chip on their shoulders after last year's meltdown, and no doubt they will be excited about the opportunity to play in front of a national TV audience.

So which is it? A blowout win for the Bears or a Turtle trap?

I strongly suspect Cal will win, but unless the Maryland players have given up completely on their coach and mail the game in, I believe it will be a lot more reminiscent of the Bears' victory over Michigan State than the pummeling in the Palouse from last week.

Cal-Washington State: Thoughts on Bears' Blowout in Pullman

Greg Richardson — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 22:37:00 -0400

It’s tough not to feel a bit of lightheaded giddiness coming off the 66-3 thrashing the Bears gave the Washington State Cougars on Saturday.

Clearly, WSU is in the midst of a rebuilding process and are more than a few players shy of having an actual Pac-10 football program. At the same time, they weren’t materially less talented than the Stanford and UW teams that embarrassed Cal last year.

It’s also worth noting that Michigan State bounced back from their loss in Berkeley to steamroll Eastern Michigan by a score of 42-10.

Still, the question of how good the 2008 Bears are at this point in the season is one where the answer is more minestrone than chicken broth.

Here are a few thoughts after the first two games.

• Kevin Riley is very talented but is still a work in progress. Riley looked a little bit out of sorts in his first real performance in front of a hostile crowd. He missed several wide-open receivers and seemed to be holding onto the ball longer than necessary. That said, it was nice to see Nate Longshore bounce back after his MSU debacle and look confident and on target in mop-up duty.

• Another positive in the passing game was the first career catch for Mike Calvin and the first catches in a Bear uniform by Nyan Boateng. Outside of Sean Young, the WR corps is still an unknown, and the emergence of a big play threat is something Jeff Tedford is counting on as the season progresses.

• The offensive line looks like the best unit Cal has had under Tedford. While it’s easy to focus on all-world center Alex Mack, the big surprises are the dominating performance of the guards.

Both Norris Malele and undersized but very athletic Chris Guarnero have impressed. Redshirt freshman tackle Mitchell Schwartz looks like a future star, and when Mike Tepper gets healthy, the depth across the entire line should be able to withstand any unexpected injuries.

• Jahvid Best has been the primary beneficiary of the blocking up front, and he showed that once he has a seam, he’s gone baby gone.

• It’s worth noting that both WSU and MSU’s defensive lines were seen as the weakest elements of their defenses coming into the season. We’ll know more when Cal faces a very stout Arizona State front four.

• Cameron Morrah didn’t catch any passes against the Cougars, but his blocking was impressive. If he makes himself a consistently good blocker, watch out, as he’s already the most dangerous pass catching TE in the Tedford era.

• Play calling by Frank Cignetti has thus far felt very Tedford-like.

• How can you not be happy with our defense? Very stout against the run, and we’re seeing breakout performances from Syd'Quan Thompson and Tyson Alualu. Both are playing like future NFLers.

• The run defense in particular has stood out, but again, it’s hard to get too excited once you take into account the OLs the Bears have faced in the first two games. While Michigan State has a potent offense, its weak point looks to be its young offensive line. WSU? Let me put it this way: When Stanford’s OL walks by, the Cougars' front five lower their eyes.

• I’ve heard criticism of the pass rush, but I think it’s premature. The front three defensive linemen have all gotten good push on passing downs, and in particular Alualu and Davis have collapsed pockets even while facing double teams. The 3-4 means that on most passing downs, Bob Gregory is going to blitz at least one linebacker.

To my eye, the LBs are still getting used to being picked up by a tackle or guard rather than a TE or RB, but given time, I think we’ll see this group get more comfortable and effective. Regardless, even when we choose to send only the three down linemen, we’re not giving as much time to opposing quarterbacks as we did last year, when they had time to send out for lunch and still complete passes.

• If there’s a concern on defense at this early stage, it’s the play of our safeties. Despite his interception and one highlight reel hit on Saturday, Bernard Hicks’ struggles against the Spartans continued in Pullman. Hicks seems to react a step slow to a thrown ball, and his penchant to hit high and not wrap up continues to result in broken tackles.

Hicks is plenty fast enough and has the experience you like at free safety, but he needs to step up his game or he may be replaced by Brett Johnson. Marcus Ezeff played better on Saturday but has yet to get back to where he was prior to his injury last season.

• Special teams continue to be “special.” While kickoffs were better, we’ve only gone from abysmal to plain bad. Let’s hope the progress continues. Bryan Anger was clearly impaired by his brace but more importantly needs to learn to catch the ball. His second drop in two games doesn’t inspire confidence.

David Seawright has been solid in his placekicking, but to my eye, he needs to get the ball up in the air to avoid being blocked once he is forced to attempt a longer field goal.

• One thing you have to like about a blowout is the opportunity to play the younger players. For example, D.J. Holt, Robert Mullins, and Mychal Kendricks all looked good in extended duty, which speaks well to our future LB corps.

How Cal Bears Deal with Adversity Will Determine 2008 Success

Greg Richardson — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 00:31:00 -0400

The results of the 2008 football season will reflect whether this Cal team and the football program as a whole can take a step forward in its mental toughness and resiliency.

Coming off a miserable season where the Bears went from undefeated and No. 2 in the nation to a team that barely showed up in dismal losses to Pac-10 bottom dwellers Stanford and Washington, this has become issue No. 1.

Can this team and this program find what was so obviously missing last year: the leadership, the competitive fire, and the never back down attitude that are such necessary ingredients to winning college football games?

Coach Jeff Tedford has gone out of his way to recognize these missing ingredients, and changes have been made. No longer will Tedford manage the offense. Instead, he hired Frank Cignetti to lead the offense and call the plays.

Tedford challenged the team to find leaders and for its seniors to speak out and set the pace. He found insight and inspiration in a book titled Talent Is Never Enough and adopted its principles.

Whether any or all of this will translate to the team’s performance is to be determined. But make no mistake: This is far and away the biggest question for Cal football going into this season—bigger than the quarterback competition, the loss of the WR corps, or questions about the run defense.

In trying to project how things might turn out, it’s sometimes helpful to look back in time. The subject of mental fortitude and the ability to overcome adversity are highly subjective topics, and applying empirical data to this issue will by no means provide answers, but it may provide some perspective.

Let’s look back at the Tedford era and remind ourselves how the Bears have performed when faced with adversity.

Winning on the road in the Pac-10 is never easy, and to do so requires a certain amount of toughness and the ability to perform under less than ideal conditions.

Tedford’s Bears have gone 12-13 for a winning percentage of 48 percent. That number strikes me as solid but not spectacular. Comparing it to USC and Oregon State may provide some relative perspective, as those are the Pac-10's top two programs outside of Cal over the past five years.

USC's record is unsurprisingly much better at 20-5, and Oregon State’s is somewhat surprisingly also markedly better at 60 percent (all of the Oregon State information cited here goes back only to 2003, which was when Mike Riley took over as their head coach).

How about winning big games? They don’t come any bigger than rivalry games and bowl games.

Cal has excelled, winning five of six Big Games while going 4-1 in bowls.

Others might define big games by those that occur at the end of the season where the stakes get raised significantly.

In games played on Nov. 1 and later (excluding the aforementioned Bowl Games), Tedford’s Cal teams have gone 13-9 for a winning percentage of 59 percent. That’s not too shabby, but it is below Tedford’s overall winning percentage of 66 percent, and perhaps not as impressive when the Stanford games are removed (making the record 8-8).

The trend is also interesting, as Cal went 9-2 during this period in Tedford’s first three seasons and only 4-7 since.

To make these numbers more real, let’s compare them again to the Beavers and the Trojans. Oregon State under Riley has won 63 percent of their post-November games, while USC has a remarkable 96 percent winning percentage since 2002 in games after October.

Adversity can perhaps best be measured by in-game challenges.

When tied or trailing after three quarters, Cal is 7-17 for a 29 percent winning percentage. Trend-wise, the Bears were nearly .500, at 5-7, during Tedford’s first three seasons, and a much more anemic 2-10 these past three years.

This is a particularly uninformative number in the absence of relative data, and citing just two Pac-10 teams improves things only marginally, but USC has a .500 record under the same circumstances, while Oregon State is at 24 percent.

Riley's Beavers' trend line is more positive than Cal's, as they were 0-7 his first two years before rallying for a 5-9 record the past three seasons.

How about games decided by ten or fewer points?

Cal is 19-24 or 44 percent in close games, but 2-1 in games decided in overtime. Not exactly clutch, but the numbers don’t say chokers either.

Getting beyond the numbers, there are several factors folks look at when trying to understand the mental makeup of the team. The first notion is that a team takes on its coach's personality.

In Tedford, Cal has a no-nonsense, straight shooting, and hyper-intense coach whose integrity and character are unimpeachable. Under Tedford’s leadership, the Bears have been a highly disciplined group that is well prepared every time they stop on the field.

It’s also worth noting that this is his first head coaching experience, and as the program grows and improves, facing new challenges and at times dizzying heights of success, Tedford is experiencing those same things for the first time as the top dog.

All that said, Tedford is not a fiery emotional leader or an overtly rah-rah guy. While he’s clearly a highly competitive and determined person, he’s better known for not wanting to run up the score and avoiding saying anything inflammatory about other coaches or programs.

This is in sharp contrast to the highly emotional types such as Mike Riley and Pete Carroll, whose teams we have compared to Cal in this article. It’s also very different from the Bruce Snyder-coached Bears, who were as apt to get an ill-timed personal foul as they were to win a big game.

What about the players? In the past, Cal’s leaders have been obvious and easily visible to even the most casual fan. From Hardy Nickerson to Mike Pawlawski to Eric Zomalt to Jerrot Willard to Tony Gonzalez to Donnie McClesky and Desmond Bishop, the Bears have had men whose stellar play on the field and emotional verve made them natural leaders.

Last year and looking forward to this year, it’s less obvious who those folks were and will be. Alex Mack is clearly that type of player, and his intensity at practice is second to none, but offenses usually look to their quarterback for this type of leadership. That may in fact have factored into the coach's decision to start Kevin Riley over Nate Longshore.

Riley’s demeanor on the field speaks to more intensity and competitive fire than the understated Longshore. In his two appearances, Riley definitely did well in the face of significant adversity, leading one near-comeback and another successful one.

It’s interesting to ponder whether the Bears' success in the classroom and its relative absence of off the field problems has a side effect relative to finding these fanatical football players.

I’m certainly not advocating anything other than the current direction the coaches have gone with their recruiting evaluations, as never before have Cal fans and alums been able to be equally proud of a football program both on and off the field.

That said, I wondered prior to last season where the junkyard dog, back down from no one, never give up, want them at your back in a dark alley type of players were on the team. I don't think we ever found them.

After raising a provocative question and supplying some data and some pure conjecture for contemplation, let me give you my conclusion.

I believe the Bears will bounce back and have a far more successful year this season than what was experienced in 2007, in large part because of the improved mental toughness and fortitude of the 2008 team.

Here’s why I have confidence in this year's team finding what was missing last season.

* The changes Tedford has made on his coaching staff and his decision to delegate control of the offense address this issue head on. Bringing in Tosh Lupoi to coach the defensive line and Al Simmons to handle the defensive backs has immediately increased the intensity and competitive fire of the defense.

The veteran Simmons and the very young Lupoi have an emotional style that gives the team something that Tedford personally lacks. Coach Tedford now has the time to monitor and adjust the team's emotional and mental fitness as a result of not handling the offense.

* Senior leadership is obvious this year on both sides of the ball. Alex Mack came back to Cal to win a national championship, and he practices and prepares as if he is planning on nothing less. As mentioned above, Riley's leadership style at QB is as important as his big arm and quick feet.

On defense, Rulon Davis’ maturity and his non-stop motor set a cadence for the rest of the defense to follow. Zach Follett and Worrell Williams have both been outspoken about leading this team, and I believe the defense will in fact set the emotional tone for the 2008 Bears.

* Expectations are lower this year, and perhaps more importantly, the program has gotten used to the pressure brought on by higher expectations. From the lessons in 2006 from visiting Knoxville to last year's collapse, these Cal players not only expect to win and win often, they know what it feels like when it all goes wrong. The pressure will be off, and when adversity does arise, they will be prepared.

* The absence of “me first” players who saw themselves as bigger than the program. One of the primary advantages of the perennial powerhouses in college football is not simply that they can attract five-star talent. It’s that those big time prep players know without a doubt that they are not bigger than the tradition and winning legacy of their school.

Cal is building that tradition but is not there yet. In fact, in recent years, Cal has probably done more to promote individual players than the program as a whole. That has led to a small number of prima donnas whose own agenda superseded that of the teams. Those players are now gone.

If Jeff Tedford were to lose his mind and ask me for advice on this topic, the one thing I would suggest is that when he recruits student athletes, he take their heart and their desire to win football games as perhaps even more important than their latent talent.

I’ll take two- and three-star players who will do anything to win games rather than four- and five-star talents who either lack the desire to truly compete in the face of adversity or are simply out for themselves. That’s not to say that talent isn’t important—but as Jeff recently read, it’s never enough.

USC and Cal to Duke It Out for Pac-10 Title in 2008

Greg Richardson — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 18:26:00 -0400

2008 Predicted Pacific Ten Conference Final Standings

1. USC 8-1
2. Cal 7-2
3. Oregon 6-3
4. ASU 5-4
5. Arizona 5-4
6. Oregon State 4-5
7. Stanford 3-6
8. UCLA 3-6
9. UW 2-7
10. WSU 2-7

USC

Pete Carroll continues to assemble the best depth of talent in all of college football. As a result, he is often overlooked for his tremendous teaching and motivational abilities as a coach. His USC teams play at a consistently high level of intensity and rarely hurt themselves with mistakes.

In 2008, the Trojans should be exceptional. Look for more forced turnovers and improved special teams play.

The offense is not nearly at the same level. The quarterback position is a major question with the likely starter being an unproven Mark Sanchez. Sanchez went down with a knee injury in camp this summer, and neither of his backups distinguished themselves.

Compounding the concern at quarterback is USC's offensive line. It’s a group with potential but lacking in experience and depth. In addition, playmakers need to be found at both the WR and TE positions.

If the offensive line can come together, a strong running game should emerge, helping the Trojans' young quarterbacks find their footing.

Look for USC to get hit with a rare home loss to Ohio State and another loss in the first half of the Pac-10 slate.

California

The depth and talent in Berkeley are superior to all but USC within the conference. Had the Bears not done their best Van De Velde imitation in late October last season, we’d be talking about them as a legitimate threat to USC’s conference dominance. Instead, we’re left wondering if this program's psyche and confidence can be resuscitated.

On paper, the team looks impressive. Offensively it starts up front, where Cal sports the team’s deepest and most talented offensive line in the Jeff Tedford era. The running game should be strong, as only the Trojans have a better stable of running backs.

Playmakers need to be established at WR, but they will be helped by having a healthy fifth-year senior and a dynamic sophomore, both of whom have played well in the past, throwing them the ball.

The Bear’s defense should be improved with eight returning starters. However, they have shifted to a 3-4 set, which could take time to master, and the run defense has to improve for Cal to play well.

How this team deals with adversity will point to whether they challenge USC for the conference title, as they did two years ago, or end up near the bottom of the conference, as they did last season.

Oregon

This will be the Ducks' best defensive team in many years. The secondary is as good as USC’s, and they return the conference’s top sack master at DE.

On offense, the Ducks' offensive line will be among the nation’s best and will allow new stars to establish themselves at wide receiver and quarterback.

The schedule is ugly, and depth is a concern almost everywhere. Oregon will need to stay healthy—especially at quarterback, linebacker, and defensive tackle—if they plan to contend for the Pac-10 crown.

Arizona State

Dennis Erickson made a great first impression and did so with only decent talent. The schedule is a lot less favorable this year, and much of the talent that was there last year has left for the NFL.

Rudy Carpenter is a good but not great quarterback, and the offensive line only looks good when compared to UCLA’s. If the offensive line can find itself, there is talent at WR and RB.

The defense came alive under Erickson and should again be solid if unspectacular. Omar Bolden and Troy Nolan are both studs in the secondary. ASU has three very good defensive linemen but little depth.

Expect ASU to come back to earth as Erickson works to stockpile AAA talent.

Arizona

It couldn’t happen to a less likable guy, but Mike Stoops will finally get over the hump this year. The offense will be solid with Nic Grigsby as a run threat and Willie Tuitama and a very strong WR corps mastering the spread offense. If they can stay healthy, the offensive line looks like the best crew Stoops has had.

Last year’s defense disappointed, but they should bounce back to the hard-hitting bunch Stoops is known to develop.

Depth is a concern almost everywhere, but receiver and special teams play could be a nightmare.

Oregon State

Mike Riley is a superb coach, and despite having to rebuild his defense, this team will be competitive. Lyle Moevao will establish himself as a reliable Pac-10 QB with a solid group of wide receivers, led by Sammie Stroughter, who could be the conference’s best wideout.

The defense must replace nine starters but has some talent coming in to mitigate the losses.

On both sides of the ball, the Beavers' ability to create a run game and stop the opponent's run will be the keys to the season.

Stanford

A staunch defense and a further injection of Jim Harbaugh’s raw optimism will result in one more win than last season. Stanford has a very strong front seven on defense, and they finally have a decent offensive line to help their offense. The Cardinal lacks any offensive playmakers, including at quarterback, and the secondary will be spotty.

While it’s highly unlikely they will surprise USC or Cal again, this Stanford team will be more competitive and take another step forward in the Harbaugh rebuilding process.

UCLA

Rick Neuheisel is just going to have to grin and bear it. Despite a stout defense, UCLA does not have enough to overcome the conference’s most anemic offense.

The Bruins' offensive line will be reminiscent of the groups Stanford put out under Buddy Teevens and Walt Harris. Look for sacks galore and a nonexistent running game. The talent and depth at QB is only marginally better, which will waste a strong corps of running backs and wide receivers.

The defense should keep games close, but that won’t be enough to keep UCLA solidly out of the bottom half in the conference.

Washington

A brutal schedule will eviscerate any hope Ty Willingham had of keeping his job. His Dawgs will play hard and smart, but that won’t be enough to overcome a lack of talent. Jake Locker is an absolute stud at QB, but injuries and a lack of playmakers around him will dull his impact.

The defense is more talented than last year's group but is very young.

Given UW’s recruiting momentum, Willingham would turn this around in another year, but the UW faithful don’t have the patience.

Washington State

Look for a better than expected offensive performance and an every bit as bad as advertised defense from the Cougars. They will upset a couple of folks at home but will endure some bad beatings on the road.

New coach Paul Wullf will improve this team's discipline and consistency, but unless he can recruit, he may have a short stay in Pullman.

Observations from Cal Scrimmage

Greg Richardson — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 11:21:00 -0400

Run offense

The offense looked good running the ball. Until the end of the scrimmage, when the offensive line was made up of second- and third-stringers, they were able to get significant push off the ball all day. Running inside was an easy four to five yards a pop, while going outside almost routinely created space for the tailbacks to break off big plays.

I was particularly impressed with the run blocking of Chris Guarnero, the sophomore center who looks to have made the shift to guard as he started with the first team on the left side and Mitchell Schwartz, the mammoth right tackle.

To my eye, all of the TEs were effective in run blocking, including Cameron Morrah, who had previously been described as an indifferent blocker. Jahvid Best did not participate as he was nursing a minor leg injury of some sort.

Shane Vereen got the start and looked solid, although I have to believe he is still not 100 percent. While far from pedestrian in his cuts and acceleration, Shane was noticeably less explosive.

Tracy Slocum was very effective as well. Slocum runs with great body lean and a low center of gravity, making him tough to tackle.

Passing Offense

This was a mixed bag. Protection was decent but certainly not up to the standards of recent Cal offensive lines. The second team line especially struggled to contain the rush and the running backs had their share of problems with blitzing linebackers.

All in all, the QBs (even running with the second- and third-string offensive lines) were not overly harried. Neither Longshore or Riley played particularly well as both spent time with the first and second teams.

Nate Longshore had good command of the huddle, stepped up nicely against the rush, and checked off well on blitzes. However, he missed several wide open receivers with high throws.

Riley wasn't as consistent with his ball, as a few fluttered on him. He did thread the needle on several throws, but he struggled to put together back-to-back positive plays.

There were few big plays, with the best being Brock Mansion's deep sideline throw to Marvin Jones. The receivers had a positive day, insofar as I can't remember one ball being dropped in the scrimmage that wasn't forced out by a defender's hit.

Against man coverage, there wasn't a lot of separation although Sean Young proved he understands how to find the soft spots against the zone repeatedly. The TEs had a nice day with Morrah, Smith and Anthony Miller all making nice catches on seam routes.

All in all, I suspect this part of Cal's offense to take some time to come together. Getting Mike Tepper back on the offensive line will help with protection as will more time for guys like Schwartz and Guarnero to gel with their linemates.

Placekicking

This could continue to be a big weakness this year. Freshman David Seawright was more impressive on field goal tries than Jordan Kay but neither were stellar. Kay gets the ball deeper on kickoffs, but Seawright has the bigger leg. David needs to hit the ball more consistently to get his kickoffs both high and deep.

Run Defense

This was not a good day for the Bears front seven against the run. As mentioned above, the offensive line consistently got good push on the defense and caught the outside linebackers blitzing on several plays to spring runs to the outside.

Eddie Young had a rough day, as did whoever the Bears had at NT. Derrick Hill eventually limped off the field, and Kendrick Payne was very slow to get up after several plays late in the scrimmage.

Worrell Williams missed the scrimmage. After Alex Mack was asked to take off the rest of the day, the run defense did get better but only slightly as the offensive line was still getting good push.

Pass Defense

This was a bright spot for Cal. Darian Hagen started opposite Syd Quan Thompson (who left the scrimmage early but I did not see if it was injury-related) and played well.

Bernard Hicks had a good day playing the ball in the air, and coverage was tight. The defense struggled a bit with underneath passes in the two deep zone and they were aided by some missed throws from the QBs.

The pass rush was solid with good push being brought by Owusu, Davis and Jordan as well as blitzing linebackers.

Punting

Bryan Anger is a rainmaker. The guy absolutely kills the football. You needed a sun dial to time his hang time. Anger needs work in getting the ball off quicker, and he wasn't super consistent with his ball striking, but this guy is special.

Coverage teams

For the most part, kickoff coverage was very solid. Punt coverage was less so.

Observations

I saw a lot of younger players who were quite impressive on both sides of the ball. Mychal Kendricks is very quick and aggressive, and athletically, he jumps out at you. DJ Holt is HUGE, and he is not afraid of contact. Both of these young players should be future stars at LB.

Robert Mullins is an undersized linebacker but he has a nose for the ball. Ernest Owusu was very effective rushing the passer and was not easily pushed around on running plays.

Marvin Jones has great size and fabulous hands. He's not as explosive as Boateng coming in and out of cuts, but he has a knack for getting open.

Brock Mansion looked good and made some nice throws and several other players stood out for me including Justin Cheadle (powerful run blocker), Charles Satchell (very smooth and explosive), DJ Campbell, Dominic Galas, Cameron Jordan (He's HUGE), LaReylle Cunningham (he and Young were the most effective WRs) and Anthony Miller (blocking and catching the ball).

I wanted to see who the obvious playmakers and leaders were on the field. Watching how they approached drills, the way they communicated with teammates, their play in the scrimmage, Rulon Davis and Bernard Hicks stood out to me on defense and Alex Mack and Nate Longshore on offense.

Overall impressions

This wasn't the most intense scrimmage that I've seen, and it lacked some of the big plays and hard hitting of scrimmages in past years.

The injury list was long and that certainly contributed, but the challenges with the run defense and our passing offense will leave Tedford and his staff with plenty of work to do with the remaining time in camp.

Understanding the Cal Bears Defense

Greg Richardson — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 18:33:00 -0400

THE SYSTEM

Bob Gregory's defenses play a style that in many ways mirrors the offensive system Jeff Tedford has in place. As on offense, it starts with the running game.

Gregory wants to take away the opponent's ability to run the ball and is willing to put eight men in a box and leave his cornerbacks on an island. In obvious passing situations, Gregory prefers not to blitz and minimize big plays with a cover-2 zone.

The idea is to give up yards but not points. Where the Cal defense will take chances is in forcing turnovers and when the opponent is in the red zone, which is where you will see the Bears blitz more often than any other time.

Coming off a year when running on the Bears was easier than scoring with Lindsay Lohan, Cal is moving to a 3-4 alignment designed first and foremost to shore up the porous run defense.

It also allows Cal to leverage its experience and depth at the linebacker position while masking a potential weakness on the defensive line. While this switch is happening, don't be surprised to see the Bears play with a four-man line on 20 percent of their defensive snaps.

The overall talent level of Cal's defense under Jeff Tedford has never been as high as it has been on the offensive side of the ball. That said, this years defense has the highest level of athleticism and more specifically speed than any other in Tedford's tenure.

With the Bears returning nine players who started last year, there is enough experience here to raise expectations considerably. While there's plenty of reasons for optimism, until Cal can find a reliable nose tackle and some semblance of a pass rush, all bets are off.

Despite the returning experience, the bulk of depth is young. As a result, I expect this year's defense to be far better at the end of the year than it is in the beginning.

DEFENSIVE LINE

The single most important player on offense or defense this season may be Rulon Davis. Davis is the most talented defensive player on the team, period.

He is a defensive end in the mold of Reggie White or Bruce Smith. He’s large at 6-foot-5 and 280 pounds and is very quick and explosive. He played well when healthy last season and was nigh unstoppable this spring. He’s big enough to anchor the corner and play the run while also being Cal’s best pass rushing lineman.

Tyson Alualu enters his junior year as a player with all the talent in the world, but he has yet to put it all together. He plays with great leverage, is hard to move around and has a good first step. He’s also 295 pounds.

Up until now, he hasn’t proven himself as a pass rusher and although he’s big and strong, his technique has been shaky. Look for Tyson to start opposite Davis at the other DE spot.

Cameron Jordan was a big surprise last year. He played both at DE and DT but in the 3-4 will definitely play at end. If his technique can catch up to his ability, he should take a big step forward backing up Davis.

Ernest Owusu is a RS Frosh with a body by Adonis and a lightning-quick first step. He played very well in the Spring and should be a future pass rushing star. Look for him to get spot duty as a pass rusher especially when the Bears go to a four-man line.

The challenge is in the middle. The Bears don’t have a returning player whose a pure NT. Mika Kane appeared to be the team’s second most effective DL behind Malele last year but given the dismal performance of this position group, that is faint praise. Kane has a lot of talent but has not played consistently hard. Kane is a senior, so the team will look to his leadership.

Derrick Hill has very quick feet and hands and has a naturally low center of gravity. He improved markedly last season, playing very effectively as the NT in the 3-4 against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. He doesn’t have NT size or strength and prefers to get off blocks rather than occupy opposing lineman which is the job of a NT in a 3-4.

Mike Costanzo, to my eye, was the Bears' quickest and most aggressive DL in Fall Camp back in 2006. After sitting out a year with an injury, he played sparingly last season and still doesn’t seem fully recovered from his knee injury. While he will factor in the rotation at NT given depth issues, it's unclear whether his knee will allow him to fulfill his promise out of high school.

In fact, the third NT on the depth chart by the end of the season may well be true freshman Kendrick Payne. Payne is built like a NT with a lower body reminiscent of former Bear great, Brandon Mebane.

Payne enrolled early and surprised people with his play in the Spring. He needs to add 10-15 pounds and build on his natural strength. He’s the type of immovable object that can force offenses to double team him allowing Cal’s LB crew to clean up.

For all the problems Cal had on the line last year, if this group can stay healthy, the team should be able to rotate eight very talented players, keeping everyone fresh. With only two seniors in the group, this is an area that will continue to get stronger as the group gains experience.

LINEBACKER

Linebackers are perceived by many to be an area of strength. While the Bears return three players who have played a lot of football in their careers, none of them have become consistently dominant performers.

The hope is that in their senior years, the game slows down for them and their instincts get honed to the point that they can play quickly without having to think too much.

Zach Follet is a very quick if undersized WLB whose very effective rushing the passer. He has the speed to stop RBs from turning the corner as well.

Follett is the one proven big play defender on the team, but he will need to improve his tackling and coverage skills if he wants to become an All-P10 performer.

Worrell Williams, although he plays inside and weighs 250-plus, may be the team's fastest linebacker. He uses that speed effectively when dropping into pass coverage and chasing down plays sideline to sideline.

Williams is not the most instinctual player and he has to get quicker at reading plays to maximize his talent. Despite his size, he’s also needs to get better getting off blockers which will become more of a challenge for him in the Bears' new 3-4 scheme.

Anthony Felder, in my opinion, was our most consistent linebacker last season and is the team's best open-field tackler. Lanky with good quickness, Felder plays well in space and does a good job using his hands to get off blockers.

He hasn’t shown an ability to attack up field and he will need to get more aggressive this season playing in the middle of the 3-4 alongside Williams.

The battle at the other outside linebacker is between Eddie Young and Devon Bishop. Young is quick but has yet to prove he can be an every-down linebacker. Bishop may be the least athletic of the group, but he is heady and plays with good technique.

Mike Mohammed played a lot last year, moves well and is a good tackler, in many ways reminiscent of Anthony Felder. He will back up Felder and Williams inside as well as Bishop/Young on the outside.

DJ Holt is a redshirt freshman who was the MVP of the scout team defense last year. At 255 pounds, he will back up both Williams and Felder and should get considerable playing time.

Mychal Kendricks is a true freshman with All American type athleticism. Look for him and Holt to be special teams stars this year.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

In the secondary, it all starts with Syd Quan Thompson. SQT had high expectations going into last season and although he didn’t come up with many interceptions, he was clearly the Bears best cover man and to my eye, one of the best cover men in the P10.

Blessed with great quickness and very fluid hips, SQT is also a sure tackler who loves to come up and play the run. He's a future NFL player. If the Bears can muster a decent pass rush, SQT should vie for All-Pac 10 honors this season.

Opposite SQT at CB is Chris Conte. At 6-foot-3and with very good hips, Conte can match up well with the P10's taller receivers.

He is a good tackler and plays with solid technique but was often burned by quicker receivers using double moves. It’s not clear that Conte is a better CB than safety but his versatility makes him a valuable player.

Darian Hagen will give Conte a good run for his starting CB position and should end up no worse than the nickel back. Hagan has similar athletic ability to SQT but has struggled with his confidence and consistency. Charles Amadi is also in the mix at corner.

Bernard Hicks will move to the FS position, and I believe this is a great move. Hicks played well as a FS his sophomore season, showing off very good ball skills when passes were in the air.

Hicks is not a great cover safety and needs to improve his tackling skills, but playing centerfield suits him. Brett Johnson will be his backup.

At the rover position, Marcus Ezeff comes back after a superb sophomore year. Ezeff has a nose for the ball and is a sure tackler.

A guy who plays the game at full speed all the time and isn’t afraid to attack up the field, Ezeff has AP10 potential. The key is for Marcus to stay healthy as the backups at this position are young and unproven.

OVERALL

On paper, this defense should be good, and the move to a 3-4 seemingly will mitigate the risks around our run defense and allow Cal to leverage its depth and experience. I see the key being leadership.

Rulon Davis and SQT are the obvious candidates, as both are superb players who go all out in practice and back down from no one on the field. Despite those two, the psyche of the rest of this group is very much in question after last year's dismal performance.

It would seem obvious that one or more of the senior linebackers would step up and build the group's confidence and trust, and certainly Williams and Follett are on record as saying they will do just that.

While I hope that is the case, neither has been natural leaders their first three years and while the light bulb can go off at any time, until we see it on the field under adversity, I'll remain a skeptic.