Bleacher Report - Articles by Joe Duffy

College Football Tipsheet Week 1, Part 1

Joe Duffy — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 20:58:12 -0400

Here are news and notes for week one of college football compiled by the football handicappers at OffshoreInsiders.com.

Friday, Sept. 4

Tulsa vs. Tulane

This game is televised on ESPN. Tulsa coach Todd Graham said he will not publicly name his starting QB because he doesn’t want Tulane to know until kickoff. However the team knows who it will be. Cy McCormick of the MasterLockLine on OffshoreInsiders.com reports that G.J. Kinne has taken the most reps. He is part of a three-man race to replace senior David Johnson. Of the three, Jacob Bower with 11 completions last season is the most experienced.

Tulane has a new defensive coordinator Steve Stanard who must prepare for three QBs who bring different looks.

Saturday, Sept. 5

Florida Atlantic vs. Nebraska

Nebraska is breaking in a new starting QB and two new WRs. RB Quentin Castille was expected to become an even bigger part of the offense this year, but was kicked off the team. Roy Helu Jr. and converted WR Marcus Mendoza are the only RBs who have carried the ball in college. Helu rushed for 803 yards last year. Nebraska enters with high hopes this year after closing out last year with a four game winning streak including a victory in the Gator Bowl.

Northern Illinois vs. Wisconsin

Two key offensive linemen are questionable for the Badgers: C John Moffitt and RG Bill Nagy. Starting LT Gabe Carimi is probable despite a knee injury. The offensive line was Wisconsin’s most experienced unit, but if Moffitt and Nagy are out, they would start freshman Travis Frederick and sophomore Kevin Zeitler at C and RG respectively.

San Diego State vs. UCLA

The Aztecs are without senior tailback Atiyyah Henderson, who has more than 1,400 career rushing yards. He has a fractured bone in his back. San Diego State will go with a three man rotation in his place and freshman Anthony Miller may get the start and be the “bell cow” of the group. San Diego State is emphasizing a power game.

Expected starting QB Kevin Craft was beaten out by freshman Kevin Prince for the Aztecs starting job.

Nevada-Notre Dame

Wolf Pack players have spoken about this being a circled game and having looked forward to it all year. About 3,000 supporters are making the trip.

Navy-Ohio State

Not only has Ohio State never seen the triple option offense, but it could be a huge look-ahead game as they host USC next week.

For more information: Football picks to beat the betting line in college football are part of the OffshoreInsiders.com Network.

Official Betting Preview Of Yankees-Red Sox

Joe Duffy — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 13:44:38 -0400

The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox in contest broadcast “nationally” to the few home that get the MLB Network.

Joba Chamberlain takes the hill for the Bronx Bombers, John Smoltz for the BoSox. The Yankees are a hefty 215 sportsbook favorite with the total at 10 under -120 at Bodog.

Boston has won all eight games in the series this year including both of Chamberlain’s starts verse them.

Boston comes in off consecutive losses, while New York has a modest three-game winning streak.

Each team is hot offensively as Boston is hitting .300 in their last seven games with an OBP of .377. Boston is .289 and .348 respectively using the same parameters.

Likely future hall-of-famer John Smoltz has been horrible since coming off the DL. Boston is 2-5 when he starts -5 units and his ERA in his last three starts is an embarrassing 9.18.

Conversely, Chamberlain has been un-hittable in his last three trips, with a 0.83 ERA and .738 WHIP to show for it.

MLB handicapping trends: Boston has lost five straight against teams with a winning record but are 27-12 to the AL East. The Yankees though have won 17-of-21 to right-handed starters.

For more information: Grandmaster sports handicapper Joe Duffy has a very strong night card, just two days removed from the easy MLB Game of the Year winner Tuesday night on underdog Cubs. Get all the baseball selections and starting this weekend NFL football picks.

Rockets-Lakers, Magic-Celtics Handicapping Preview

Joe Duffy — Sat, 16 May 2009 21:28:48 -0400

Put aside the winnings from the Preakness results as filly Rachel Alexander and Jess Jackson sets sight on the Belmont Stakes after the Preakness payouts.

The Orlando Magic-Boston Celtics and the Houston Rockets-Los Angeles Lakers each battle in Game 7s on Sunday. Let’s check out the betting previews.

The NBA odds at BetED has Boston a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 186 at Sports Betting Sportsbook.

Boston is 49-26 straight up including 40-8 at home. Orlando is 66-28 straight up, 30-17 on the road.

The Magic allow just 93.9 points per game to teams normally getting 99.5. Boston allows 94.6 to 99.8. Each team scores less than a point more than their opponent normally allows.

Now some betting trends, all records against the spread: the Magic are 44-19 as an underdog of 4.5 or less. Boston is 4-12 in the Conference semifinals. Orlando has gone under 21-8 their last 39. Boston has gone over 13-3 off a loss.

Meanwhile the betting line for Houston-LA is the Lakers -12.5 at BetUs Sportsbook with the total of 194 at Bodog Life.

Houston is 66-34 straight up but just 22-25 away from home. The Lakers are 72-21 including 41-6 as the home team.

Against the spread trends: Houston is 3-8 on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record. The Lake Show has gone under 14-2 off a straight up loss. They’ve also gone under 23-9 as a favorite.

For more information: Get the top NBA picks to beat the live NBA odds at OffshoreInsiders.com

Friday Fantasy Baseball and MLB Betting Preview

Joe Duffy — Fri, 01 May 2009 13:26:08 -0400

Here are news and notes, plus pitcher report card info for Friday baseball betting. Units are based on one unit per bet, plus or minus the juice.

Also, key injuries for fantasy baseball and bettors alike are featured.

Red Sox-Rays

Tampa is 3-11 this year in virtual pick ‘em games (line 125 or less either way) in 2009.

Indians-Tigers

Cleveland is 5-13 -10.3 units to right-handed starters this year.

Mets-Phillies

New York is 3-9 -8.8 against teams with a winning record. Mets first baseball Carlos Delgado is probable, while Phillies closer Brad Lidge is doubtful.

Astros-Braves

Mike Hampton is 25-46 -25.7 units since 1997 to NL teams that average 4.3 or fewer runs. The Astros are a splendid 14-6 +14.9 units on the road versus a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or fewer hits per start.

Derek Lowe is 3-9 as home favorite of 150-200. Astros closer Valverde is on the DL.

Pirates-Reds

Pittsburgh has been 10-1 +11.1 units the last two years after a game in which they had four or fewer hits. Reds third baseball Juan Encarnacion is on the DL.

Cardinals-Nationals

St. Louis is 11-3 +8.2 units in virtual pick ‘em games (line 125 or less either way). Cardinals outfielder Ryan Ludwick is probable, while shortstop Khalil Green is out.

Angels-Yankees

Andy Pettitte is 5-12 as a favorite of 125-175 -12.7 units the last two years. The Angels are 34-19 +22.6 units the last two years as an underdog.

Marlins-Cubs

Florida shortstop Hanley Ramirez is doubtful, as is Cubs third basemen Aramis Ramirez.

White Sox-Rangers

White Sox DH JIm Thome is probable.

For more information: Tonight’s baseball picks are at OffshoreInsiders.com. The latest MLB odds are in real-time.

NBA Betting: The "Defense Wins Championships" Myth Exposed

Joe Duffy — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 12:37:35 -0400

At the start of the NBA playoffs, there was no shortage of the “defense wins championships” articles. One of the toutspeak clichés is so fundamentally flawed, I can only thank them for keeping the sportsbooks in business for the rest of us.

It goes along the lines of: look at the stats, scoring is way down in the postseason in the NBA, therefore defense is more important. An elite sports handicapper, I don’t consider myself an expert on commodities investments, but the basic fact is if the demand for a commodity stays the same, but the supply goes down, the value of having that commodity goes up.

The more of that commodity that one has, the better off the investor is. However, if such asset became more easily obtainable, the worth of it decreases.

That’s exactly how it is with the ability to score crucial points in the NBA playoffs. There is no question defensive intensity rises immensely in the playoffs. The commodity of scoring points is much more difficult to come by than they are against lackluster five-cities-in-seven-nights regular season defenses.

Therefore the worth of the commodity of clutch scoring goes up in the postseason, not down.

Recent historic fact No. 1: The 2007 Miami Heat became the first team in NBA history to win a championship only to get swept in the first round the following year. Yet defensively they were superior to their championship year, jumping from 13^th in the league to eighth. However offensively they did a free-fall going from sixth to 28^th, third worst in the NBA.

The Heat had two certified offensive superstars, Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O’Neal.

The two played a combined 91 games this year because of various injuries and never, ever got in sync. Wade was rushed back for the postseason and Miami’s offensive lack of cohesion was indisputable.

They were better defensively in 2007 because they had to compensate. The end result to the better defense but much inferior offense was being on the wrong end of the historic sweep. Oh and when the Heat won the championship last year, which team lead the league in defense?

Recent historic fact No. 2: It was the Memphis Grizzlies who set an all-time mark for consecutive postseason losses. Yes, the league’s numero uno defense set the bar for playoff incompetence.

Don't get me wrong, defensive and offensive rankings as we have stated time and time again are extremely deceptive in football and basketball. Points per game are much more indicative of tempo than of competence. Fast break teams will always appear “offensive oriented” and half court teams “defensive oriented” to the uneducated eye.

However there was no significant pace-of-the-game adjustment for Miami from last year to this year with Wade and O’Neal playing musical MASH unit, so there is at least an apples to apples comparison in beating live odds for the NBA.

Recent historical fact, No. 3: based on disparity in winning percentage, the Dallas Mavericks became victims of the biggest upset in NBA playoff history when they were not just beaten, but dominated by the Golden State Warriors.

Said the media, this of course was the year that Avery Johnson was finally able to exorcise Dallas of the offensive mindset Don Nelson that poisoned them with for years. The transition to offensive-oriented to defensive-minded was complete. And so was their season completed—very quickly.

Oh and the team that beat them was the worst defensive team in the NBA—Golden State coached by Don Nelson. There is no epiphany needed. Any debate is fruitless. The foremost reason for the Mavericks failure was that their premier offensive player Dirk Nowitzki went AWOL, while Golden State put up a clinic in outside shooting.

Anyone who tries to spin it differently, I want to book their plays. We are, as we admitted using deceptive rankings that are based simply on points per game. But we are using the same data the cliché mongers use in order to refute them.

However the fact is that I am anything but a proponent of a frenetic pace. A great offense in basketball means very good complimentary offensive players that can consistently score clutch baskets, and here is the kicker: in the half-court offense.

The San Antonio Spurs, contrary of the misleading rankings, fit our definition as well as any team in the NBA. The uneducated eye would look merely at points per game, oblivious to the fact they place a strict half court offense.

But with the game on the line Tony Parker getting the ball to Tim Duncan or Manu Ginobili is a pretty powerful combo. Of course, David Robinson was also part of the initial championship team. Robert Horry is not called “Big Stop Bob” it’s “Big Shot Bob”. They also have Michael Finley and before him Steve Kerr.

Look at any of the modern championship teams. They may play different styles, but they all have one thing in common—prime time offensive players. From O’Neal and Wade, to Jordan and Pippen, O’Neal and Bryant, Olajuwon, Drexler and Cassell, Johnson, Jabber and a sensational supporting cast, Bird, McHale and Johnson, Erving, Malone and Toney.

They all had a lot more success in the postseason than the phenomenal defensive pairing of Mookie Blaylock and Dikembe Mutombo, Bobby Jones and Caldwell Jones, Paul Pressey and Sidney Moncrief.

In fact, going back to the late '70s, if not well beyond, the least impressive 1-2 offensive punch from an NBA Champion would be Chauncey Billups and Rick Hamilton from the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons. Yet anyone who actually watched that particular playoffs can attest that duo’s ability to get the big basket

Phoenix does have enormous offensive talent, but frankly will have to overcome their chaotic style of play to capture the ring. There is no question they have the substance, but may lack the style to win it all.

The simple fact is every single NBA Champion will have the extremely rare commodity of at least two legitimate big time go-to players who can make the big shot and/or the big pass when the game on the line.

That’s a commodity that’s rare, but not as rare as the professional gambler who is conscious of this fact.

NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Preview

Joe Duffy — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 18:39:54 -0400

The most intense time of the year for sports fans starts Wednesday—the NHL playoffs. The top NHL handicapping site previews 2009 Stanley Cup playoffs from the standpoint of beating the NHL odds.

Philadelphia-Pittsburgh

The Flyers are 16-40 in their last 56 road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage of .600 or better. The Penguins enter the postseason on a 16-5 overall run and they are 45-18 in their last 63 home games versus an opponent with a losing road record.

NY Rangers-Washington

The Rangers are 35-80-6 in their last 121 road games against teams home winning percentage of .600 or better. However, they are 8-1 in their last nine Conference Quarterfinals games.

The Capitals are 41-18 in their last 59 to the Eastern Conference, but 9-24 in their last 33 following a loss of three or more goals.

Carolina-New Jersey

The Hurricanes are 8-1 against the Atlantic. The Devils are 74-36-6 on three or more days rest, but 1-7 in their last eight against teams with a winning record.

Columbus-Detroit

The Blue Jackets are 90-222-15 in their last 327 road games. The Red Wings are 111-32-10 at home versus an opponent with a road winning percentage of .400 or less. They do enter on a 2-6 overall skid. Detroit is 36-14-1 in the series.

Montreal-Boston

Montreal is 1-6 against the Northeast. Boston is 43-16 against the Eastern Conference.

Calgary-Chicago

The Flames are 7-0 on three days rest, but 1-7 in their last eight after allowing two goals or less. The Black Hawks are on a 6-1 overall run. The road team has won 8-of-10 in the series.

Anaheim-San Jose

The Ducks are 10-3 in their last 13 overall. San Jose is 41-12 in their last 53 home games.

NBA Odds: Friday's Previews

Joe Duffy — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 00:22:24 -0400

Here is a look at Friday NBA trends—previews from the standpoint of NBA handicapping. All records are against the spread, excluding pushes, unless over/under is noted.

Cleveland-Philadelphia

The Cavaliers are 20-6 their last 26 to the Atlantic, yet have dropped five straight to the conference.

The Sixers are 8-21 to the sportsbooks as a home underdog of 5-10.5 points. They’ve also dropped six-of-seven with one day rest.

Miami-Boston

Miami 9-22 to the Atlantic. Boston is 3-11 their last 14 at home in the back pocket.

Indiana-Atlanta

The Pacers are on a 2-7 skid if they allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. The Hawks are 12-1 to the Central Division.

Washington-Toronto

The Wizards are 8-22 off a double digit loss. The Raptors are 2-9 after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.

Charlotte-Oklahoma City

The Bobcats are 8-1 their last nine to an opponent that scored 100 points or more points their last game. The Thunder have failed in seven-of-eight to the Vegas NBA odds against a team that scored 100 or more points in their last game.

Phoenix-Memphis

The Suns are 9-1 against teams with a losing record. Memphis has covered six straight overall.

New Jersey-Detroit

The Nets are 11-3 to the Eastern Conference. Detroit is 10-23 spread wise to a team that scored 100 or more points in their last game.

New Orleans-Dallas

The Hornets are 8-20 their last 28 as road underdogs. Dallas is 1-6 at home versus an opponent with a winning road record. The favorite is 20-8 in the series.

LA Lakers-Portland

The Trail Blazers are 40-19 their last 59 at home against teams with a road winning percentage of .600 or greater. Portland has covered 22-of-29 to the Lakers.

Sacramento-LA Clippers

The Clippers are 5-16 to the Western Conference. The Kings have covered 10-of-13 at the Clippers.

Houston-LA Clippers

The Rockets have covered the last nine series meetings.

2009 Masters Odds: Tiger Woods a Small Favorite Over Phil Mickelson

Joe Duffy — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 20:30:11 -0400

It’s a tradition like no other—betting on the U.S. Masters.

The only suspense about the 2009 Masters odds is how prohibitive of a favorite Tiger Woods would be. “We’ve saw him even money at the US Open,” says sports handicapper Stevie Vincent, a Vegas betting line unprecedented in the PGA Majors.

Eldrick Woods is a slightly more mortal 7-4 to wear the Green Jacket again. Chief rival Phil Mickelson is next at 7-1, while the rest of the field qualifies as long shots. Padraig Harrington and Geoff Ogilvy top the best of the rest at 16-1.

For those looking for dark horses in their Masters Calcutta, one top golf expert says there are some quality long shot bets to beat the Masters betting line. The possibilities are headlined by Henrik Stenson.

Will there by a hole in one at the 2009 Masters? The oddsmakers say yes—a 5-4 prospect.

Golf experts can also choose from endless proposition bets. Who will be the top Spaniard, European, Asian, teenager, or left-hander? All these options are available.

CBS is streaming exclusive coverage of Amen Corner, and bettors can wager on the “Amen Corner Special.” Who will complete holes 11, 12 and 13 in the fewest strokes? Not surprisingly, Tiger Woods is the favorite, but at a tempting +300.

“Handicap” in golf has a completely different meaning at the sportsbooks than on the hallowed grounds of Augusta. The best golf handicappers can have their own personal “Win for the Ages.”

Exclusive Betting Preview of Duke-Villanova

Joe Duffy — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 17:39:51 -0400

Let the echo chamber previews tell the sports fan the same repackaged information. Here is the official betting preview of Villanova-Duke from OffshoreInsiders.com.

Villanova is 28-7 straight up and 17-14 to the number while Duke is 30-6 and 16-17 respectively.

The Wildcats score 77 points per game to teams normally allowing 68.4. But defensively the numbers are more impressive in the more indicative category of shooting percentage. Villanova allows teams normally shooting 44 percent to just 40.6.

The Blue Devils get 78.1 points per game to teams normally allowing 68.5. They shoot 2.8 percent higher than their foes normally allow. Defensively they are above average, but not as dominant as the Wildcats. Duke holds teams to 1.0 percent below their normal average from the field.

Against common opponents, Duke is 4-0 straight up, but 0-3-1 to the Vegas odds. Villanova is 2-2 straight up and against the spread.

As far as against the spread records: Duke is 2-10 as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils have dropped 8-of-10 to the Big East.

At least in pure numbers, Duke has the coaching advantage. Mike Krzyzewski holds the record for wins in the NCAA Tournament at 69 and his Big Dance winning percentage of .767 is the highest among active coaches.

BetUs Sportsbook has Duke a two-point favorite, though some sportsbooks still have them at -2.5. The total ranges from 148-149.

March Madness Myths: The Fantasy Of Guard Oriented Teams Winning

Joe Duffy — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 17:09:08 -0500

For the last several years we’ve touted Pete Tiernan’s Bracket Science as a valuable tool in Big Dance handicapping.

While the science is oriented towards forecasting the March Madness bracket pool, there are sundry sports handicapping applications.

In fact, as our diverse range of regular clients have seen us assert in our analysis—the dichotomous ATS and straight up game as an example—handicapping is in large part the art of isolating overvalued and undervalued teams.

The voluminous articles on Bracket Science are centered on isolating characteristics of underachieving and overachieving teams in the NCAA Tournament.

If there is a downside to this mechanism, the findings are corroborating my own experiences as a handicapper rather than enlightening me on new angles.

Rest assured that a large component of my success in the industry since the 1980's is that I am quite swayable and have made many adjustments, often debunking unfound theories of my fledgling early years.

Conversely, those who subscribe to sports betting’s ultimate oxymoron “conventional logic” will have an epiphany upon reading the findings with an open mind.

Possibly topping the lists of urban legends perpetuated by hacks, talking heads, and bottom-rung handicappers alike is the pure poppycock about betting on guard oriented teams.

As stated numerous times, a team’s strength is a commodity and the less prevalent the commodity, the more valuable the resource is.

In a rare illustration in which “conventional logic” is factually based, most baseball fans understand that possessing a shortstop who can hit 35 runs and knock in 100 is more valuable than a first baseman who can do the same. A power hitting middle infielder is a scarcity—a rare commodity.

But the same gospel truth is abandoned elsewhere in sports. For example in the NBA playoffs, it’s a statistical truism that scoring decreases in the NBA playoffs as defensive intensity increases.

Yet “conventional logic” has Joeybagofdonuts victimized into believing that somehow when scoring goes down defensive becomes more paramount. False.

A quick study proves that teams most adept at scoring consistently in the half-court are beyond reproach the most victorious in postseason NBA.

The same parallel universe applies to college basketball. There are significantly more quality backcourts than frontcourts. Most teams that fail to make the NCAA, flop in the first-round, or do not even qualify for the NIT are guard oriented.

Drinking the Kool-Aid, those who perpetuate the alternate reality conclude that the preponderance of high caliber guard play and the dearth of dominant big men makes the more prevalent guard oriented teams the more cherished commodity.

Basketball’s equivalent of the power hitting first basemen has become more indispensable than the shortstop who can bat cleanup.

Poppycock, balderdash; it’s a pure betting urban legend.

The goal here is neither to bootleg Tiernan’s research nor write an advertorial on his behalf, but one would be advised to consult his work for his precise and standardized metrics for defining over and underachieving.

His research concluded that since 1991, NCAA Tournament teams get 52 percent of their points from guards. He also defines the last 24 years as the modern era and divides them into three eight-year periods.

Of zero surprise to us, but a revelation to countless, Tiernan concludes:

“In each eight-year period of the modern era, the most frontcourt-dominant teams have overachieved.”

“The most guard-dominant squads have never been overperformers in any eight-year period of the 64-team era.”

“Never,” he said. No way, no how.

Using statistically overwhelming numbers to document his conclusions he again corroborates what we’ve preached for decades:

“If you look at the average percentage of points that tourney advancers have gotten from guards in each eight-year period of the modern era, you’ll find that deeper advancers tend to be more frontcourt-oriented squads.”

Judge for yourself as the $20 he charges for his research is pocket change for the bettor and we be paid back ten-fold if utilized correctly.

Debunking the guard-play myth is just one of my long-preached theories that have earned me the title of “Mr. March” and “Lord of the Dance” that are validated by his 24-year study.

Because I am seamlessly converting his brainpower into spread betting applications, the devil’s advocate could argue yours truly is making some leaps of faith.

I’d welcome counterpoints, but among the other theorems authenticated not only by my quarter century of unprecedented winnings, but also by Tiernan’s scholarly research are:

· Straight up winning percentage is greatly overplayed in handicapping. Scoring margin is the leading indictor.

· Bench play is extremely overvalued in Big Dance handicapping. Note that the study is purely about the NCAA Tournament. We assert that a deep bench is of great importance in the conference tournaments but overrated in the Big Dance

· Age and experience is also overrated. “With each two-round advancement in the tourney, teams get increasingly younger,” the study says.

The sportsbooks thrive because “conventional logic” is too often a misnomer for “folklore” in sports betting. Those who let facts guide their conclusions will continue to prosper.

The author, Joe Duffy is part of Dream Team of GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com.

The above research is only a scintilla of the data “Mr. March” exploits en route to being the winningest all-time sports handicapper.

2009 March Madness Odds: Tar Heels Still the Favorites to Capture Title

Joe Duffy — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 18:29:28 -0500

The latest March Madness betting odds has North Carolina still the favorites to win the 2009 NCAA Men’s basketball tournament. As overwhelming of a preseason favorite as seen in years, the Tar Heels are currently 5-2 to win the Big Dance.

Connecticut is next at 7-2. Two Big 12 teams have essentially switched spots from the preseason rankings. Texas, considered in the preseason as the third most likely team to capture the Final Four championship is now 50-1, while Oklahoma has skyrocketed to 12-1.

As far as expert March Madness predictions are concerned, most handicapping experts seem to agree the race is wide open.

“The Sooners have the best player in the country Blake Griffin and the top freshman in Willie Warren,” says Joe Bartelle of BetOnSports360.com, in predicting Oklahoma will emerge as champions.

Few teams have plummeted as far as Georgetown, now at 100-1. Despite previous postseason early exits, Pittsburgh is the choice of Brian Gould of ScoresOddsPicks.com. “Sam Young, Levance Fields, and DeJuan Blair make the Panthers the team with the most true star go-to players,” insists Gould.

Other strong contenders including Louisville at 10-1, Duke at 15-1, and once top-ranked Wake Forest at 15-1. Gonzaga at 40-1 and Butler at 60-1 is the mid-major most likely to wear the glass slipper.

Mike Godsey of GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com projects the four top seeds to be North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, and Connecticut.

Godsey says the best dark horses are the teams that will be the final Big East and ACC entrants. Villanova at 50-1 or even Florida State at 150-1 could certainly bust some March Madness bracket picks.

Get the updated live odds rundown for March Madness 2009.

Florida-LSU: Men's Basketball Betting Preview

Joe Duffy — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 13:06:44 -0500

The Florida Gators take on the LSU Tigers and here is the official betting preview from the staff of ScoresOddsPicks.com. LSU is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 151.

Florida is 21-6 straight up on the year, but a middling 9-11 in the back pocket including 2-4 their last six to the Vegas college basketball betting odds.

LSU is 23-4 straight up including 18-1 in the Fat Tuesday state. They have though lost three straight to the number.

LSU has outstanding numbers on defense holding teams normally getting 43.7 percent shooting to just 39.6. They also shoot 3.1 percent better than their opponent normally allows.

The Bengal Tigers will be a tough test for the high flying Gators team that averages 79.3 points per game to teams that normally allow 69.4, shooting 48.8 percent against teams normally allowing 42.9.

Florida is below average defensively allowing 44.1 percent to teams normally getting 43.7.

Stevie Vincent, Senior Handicapper at OffshoreInsiders.compoints out that LSU is just 17-37 against the sportsbooks as a favorite, but 39-17 against the spread off a home conference win.

As far as motivation—or in the minds of many pro bettors pressure, LSU has a shocking three-game lead in the SEC over Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina and can clinch at least a tie for the overall conference title with a win tonight.

LSU has won 11 straight conference games straight up. The game is televised nationally on ESPN.

Pittsburgh-West Virginia and Kansas-Missouri Betting Previews

Joe Duffy — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 13:45:03 -0500

There is a one heck of a sports betting Big Monday in store on ESPN for both the viewer and the sports bettor. Basketball’s version of the Backyard Brawl takes place when West Virginia visits Pittsburgh.

Top online casino BetUs Sportsbook has the Pitt Panthers as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 136.

That’s followed by Kansas versus Missouri, with the Mizzou Tigers laying four at Bookmaker with an over/under of 153.

West Virginia is 16-7 straight up, and they enter on a 3-1 against the spread run. They’ve gone under four straight. The Panthers are 21-2 straight up and 11-6 against the spread. They are a perfect 14-0 straight up at home and 5-3 where it counts.

The Mountaineers allow just 60.6 points per game to teams normally getting 72.1. They are tough on the perimeter, holding teams to 7.8 percent below their normal average from three-point range.

The Panthers shoot 48 percent from the field while allowing just 39.8 percent. Pitt averages a scary 83.6 points per game at home.

Kansas enters 19-4 straight up and 12-6 to the number. However, they are a sensational 7-1 to the Vegas number in Big 12 play. Missouri is 20-4 straight up, including 14-0 at home. They’ve covered six of their last eight overall.

Against common opponents this year, KU is 6-1 to the number while Missouri is 4-3. Kansas has covered six straight Monday games. Missouri is 8-20 against the spread laying 6.5 or less.

This could be a high scoring game, as Missouri shoots 48.6 percent while KU gets 48.4.

Bowl News and Notes For December 20

Joe Duffy — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 09:03:04 -0500

Here are some news and notes for sports handicappers and fans alike from the staff of OffshoreInsiders.com

Memphis-South Florida

South Floridacould approach this as a consolation bowl. After their first preseason ranking ever, they were thinking BCS starting 5-0. However, they slide into the postseason having lost 5-of-7. They failed to score more than 20 points in their final five games.

Memphis defeated just one bowl team Southern Miss and has no wins to teams with a winning record.

Southern Miss-Troy

Troy was 8-4 but easily could have won two more. They lost by one to Louisiana-Monroe when their potential game winning field goal hit the crossbar. They also blew a 31-3 lead to LSU.

Southern Miss enters the postseason playing their best football of the year winning five straight. Their defensive improvement was the reason. After giving up 35.8 points per game in five straight losses, they have up 35 points combined in their final five games.

BYU-Arizona

Motivation should not be a factor for an Arizona team playing in their first bowl game in a decade. BYU’s focus may be another story. A loss to Utahin their season finale cost them a shot at a BCS bowl.

Arizona allowed only 14.7 points per game at home, but 30.6 on the road. Arizona ranks 16th in the nation in total offense and BYU 19th, so points should be aplenty.

Wake Forest-Navy

These teams met on Sept. 16 and Navy won 24-17. Navy won 5-of-7 to close the year including the final two contests by a combined 50-0. Navy should have QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada at full speed. He missed five games this year but returned against Army. “He makes a huge difference for the Naval Academy,” says ScoresOddsPicks.com Brian Gould.

USC-Oregon State from a Football Handicapping Standpoint

Joe Duffy — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 15:58:27 -0400

Top-ranked USC travels to Oregon State as the Trojans invade the Beavers. Sportsbooks have the Trojans as a 25-point road favorite and a total of 51.5-52.

USC is 2-0 straight up and against the spread. Oregon State is 1-2 straight up and against the spread, but the home team has won and covered all three of their games this year.

Oregon State is averaging 3.6 yards per rush, 7.0 passing yards per attempt, and 5.5 yards per play. Defensively, it allows just 5.8 yards per pass and 5.2 yards per play.

Of course, those numbers don’t compare to Southern Cal, which gets 7.8 yards per pass on 6.5 yards per play. The Trojans allow just 1.9 yards per rush, 4.5 passing yards per attempt, and 3.3 yards per play.

“One of the first things a handicapper must evaluate when there is such a large point spread is the motivational factors of each team,” says Mike Godsey, the world’s top football handicapper and part of the Dream Team at GodsTips, the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com.

Certainly the Trojans can find motivation in what happened in their last trip to Corvallis. OSU snapped USC’s 38-game winning streak. In fact, Oregon State has won 2-of-3 outright at home in the series, though USC has a 58-9-1 all-time head-to-head advantage.

Godsey, who watches a great deal of game film, says that Oregon State is showing some upside on offense. Quarterback Lyle Moevao leads the Beavers to the No. 1 spot in the Pac-10 in passing offense at 307.3 yards per game.

USC will be without cornerback Shareece Wright with a hairline vertebra fracture. Also, All-American linebacker Brian Cushing is suffering from sundry injuries, the latest a hamstring strain suffered Tuesday. He is questionable.

Here are some betting trends, all against the spread: Oregon State is 0-6 coming off a home win of 17 or more points. However, the Beavers are also 12-3 at home off a home win. They don’t like to see you in September, as they are only 2-11 in the ninth month.

USC is 7-1 following a bye week and 32-15 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards last game.

MLB News and Notes For Tuesday

Joe Duffy — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 06:28:08 -0400

Here are key news and notes for Tuesday’s card for sports handicappers, fantasy baseball players and hard-core MLB fans alike. Stats are compiled by the staff of OffshoreInsiders.com

Philadelphia-Washington

The Phillies are 2-12 this year as a favorite when Brett Myers starts.

Tampa-Toronto

Tampa is 8-3 in the series.

White Sox-Minnesota

Minnesota Twins are 8-1 their last nine at home.

Seattle-Texas

The Rangers have been slump-proof this season as they are an incredible 28-8 if they lost two of their previous three games. Texas is 17-8 at home in the head-to-head competition. Seattle is 7-14 with Carlos Silva but Texas is 1-6 Carlos Silva.

Colorado-Pittsburgh

The Rockies are 1-16 on the road in 2008 to National League squads that average 4.8 or more runs per game.

Kansas City-Oakland

Oakland is 2-10 their last 12 at home.

Mets-Florida

Florida is 15-5 versus bullpens that threw for more than 13 innings combined in their previous three games. However, the Mets have won 15-of-20 overall.

Baltimore-Yankees

The Orioles are 4-18 this season after scoring eight or more runs. The Yankees have won 10-of-11 at home.

LA Anaheim-Boston

The Angels have won five straight in the series. They are 10-3 with John Lackey. Bostonis 3-8 with Clay Buchholz.

Cubs-Milwaukee

Milwaukee is 8-0 to a right-handed starter.

Tim Donaghy, Blowing the Whistle or Blowing Smoke

Joe Duffy — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 09:03:43 -0400

As always, we will allow others to engage in rampant speculation about Tim Donaghy’s latest bombshell finger pointing. We will continue to give our fair and balanced take.

Mind you, in lieu of a smoking gun, we are all engaging in conjecture, but unlike others, I only claim to have educated theories, not the definitive rejoinder.

Let’s rid ourselves of one apocryphal contention. I have heard enough of this “we didn’t believe Jose Conseco either” balderdash. This is not to say I accepted every name and detail from the get-go.

However, the before/after comparisons of sundry players girth, corroborated by rapidly ascending power statistics, had me long previously convinced of MLB’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” steroid policy.

Whether or not such circumstantial evidence would hold up in a court of law is irrelevant. The visual and statistical evidence that existed long before Conseco’s caseboundis are infinitely more damning than any so-far undocumented innuendo Donaghy has thrown against the wall.

Until Donaghy presents supporting evidence, here is my learned take. The rogue criminal merely cherry-picked several high profile NBA officiating controversies and decided to retro fit insinuation with the intent to intimidate the NBA from aggressively seeking punitive action.

Yet he is fortunate enough to possess likely legitimate, though irrelevant to his criminal charges, tattletale scuttlebutt that conspiracy theorists will accept as proof that the more salacious whistle-blowing (pun unintentional) is valid.

As an example, the jailbird alleges, “Team 3 lost the first two games in the series and Team 3’s Owner complained to NBA officials. Team 3’s Owner alleged that referees were letting a Team 4 player get away with illegal screens. NBA Executive Y told Referee Supervisor Z that the referees for that game were to enforce the screening rules strictly against that Team 4 player. Referee Supervisor Z informed the referees about his instructions. As an alternate referee for that game, Tim also received these instructions.”

Coaches and players make game-to-game adjustments. The fact that officials also view game film in order to correct errors, even on a night-by-night basis, is every bit as commendable as it is believable. Nice try convict, but thanks for the big “so what”.

He also alleges that in violation of league policy, officials at times socialized with team hierarchy or solicited players for autographs. While it’s quite plausible a referee requested a star player’s John Hancock for their grandson, this is the equivalent of proving a person jaywalked as evidence he is guilty of murder.

Okay Tim, we are sure officials didn’t obey the NBA’s overbearing guidelines infallibly, but even if said squealing proves accurate, it only demonstrates your fellow zebras human, not illicit. Score another “so what” for the inmate.

Sadly though, early returns of the court of public opinion suggest Donaghy’s indoctrination has been met with initial success. While Donaghy skillfully planted confirmation bias to put the NBA on the defensive, the burden of proof is on him to substantiate, not the league to negate.

“Innocent until proven guilty” may not be a burden of proof that applies at the collective water coolers around the country, but the desperado seems to be given a lot more credibility than he has earned.

In the book, Propaganda and Persuasion, authors Garth S. Jowett and Victoria O’Donnell define propaganda as “the deliberate, systematic attempt to shape perceptions, manipulate cognitions, and direct behavior to achieve a response that furthers the desired intent of the propagandist.”

In lieu of a scinitlla of even an air of reality, it appears window dressing is all Donaghy can deliver.

Joe Duffy is the top sports handicapper in America and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

Oddsmakers Weigh in on NFL Draft

Joe Duffy — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 15:19:28 -0400

It’s a football weekend. Yes the NFL draft is this weekend. OffshoreInsiders.com has posted betting odds for the draft.

Who will be the second QB drafted? Brian Brohm -120, followed by Chad Henne at +170 and Joe Flacco at +175. The field is +400. Virtually all projections of course have Matt Ryan going first. The sportsbooks odds are in line with Rivals.com rankings as well as most projections, which also have Brohm going second at the signal calling position.

One can even bet on which position teams will pick. The Dallas Cowboys are rumored to be trying to trade up to draft Arkansasrunning back Darren McFadden. Not surprisingly running back is the most likely position they will draft first, but an interesting proposition is “any other position” other than running back, wide receiver or cornerback at +200.

Which team will draft Illinois ball control running back Rashard Mendenhall? The Detroit Lions are even money, followed by Chicago at +250, and Houston at +275.

Philadelphia Eagles fans are chomping at the bit to draft a wide receiver. Gamblers can wager in which round they will pick one. If you bet not in the first four rounds and are right, collect +500.

One can wager which side of the ball the Indianapolis Colts will draft. Will Chad Johnson be traded during the draft? When will the Atlanta Falcons draft a quarterback?

Check out OffshoreInsiders.com for more betting options for the NFL draft, American Idol Vegas odds, Stanley Cup playoffs, and NBA playoff betting odds as well.

Xavier-UCLA: What Sports Investors Need to Know

Joe Duffy — Sat, 29 Mar 2008 05:39:25 -0400

It’s time for Elite Eight betting as Xavier takes on UCLA.

The Musketeers enter 30-6 straight up but just 16-15 against the spread. They have though covered all three of their games in the Big Dance.

UCLA is 34-3 straight up and 21-15 against the spread. The Bruins have dropped 4-of-5 against the spread. Against common opponents, UCLA is 3-0 straight up and where it really counts, while Xavier is 2-1 outright and 0-3 in the back pocket.

UCLA is shooting an amazing 47.8 percent to teams that normally allow just 43.1. They also hold opponents to 3.2 percent below their normal average.

Xavier shoots lights out as well. They make 47.8 percent of their shots to squads that normally allow 43.5. On defense it’s 40.6 percent against to 44.6.

Sportsbooks currently have the Bruins as a 5.5-6 point favorite with the total fairly steady across the board at 154.5.

Some betting trends for this contest (all records against the spread):

Xavier is 7-0 as an NCAA Tournament dog and 12-2 in all neutral floors as a puppy.

UCLA is 35-16 off an ATS loss, but they have failed in four straight games to teams with a winning percentage above .600.

Totals bettors will want to note that Xavier is a big March Madness “over” team having exceeded the total in 10-of-11 NCAA Tournament games.

Get the spread-betting winners for today’s card and every day at OffshoreInsiders.com

NCAA Tournament Notebook: Thursday, March 20

Joe Duffy — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 01:30:21 -0400

Sports betting news and notes from for Thursdays NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Thursday

George Mason-Notre Dame

The Patriots are 12-4 to the sportsbooks in their last 16 neutral site games as an underdog.

Georgia-Xavier

The Musketeers are 23-7 against the spread their last 30 neutral site games.

USC-Kansas State

Kansas State didn’t not finish the year strong, going 5-7 straight up after a 15-4 start. Averaging 78.7 points per game, they exceeded 80 points 13 straight times. USC has no seniors on the roster. In fact, freshman and sophomores accounted for 95.7 percent of their scoring, the highest in the country. Incredibly six of USC’s 11 losses were to teams that were in the Top 4 ranked teams in the country at one point this season.

Cal State Fullerton-Wisconsin

The Titans are 16-5 their last 22 overall.

Portland State-Kansas

The Jayhawks are 3-15 their last 18 Thursday games.

Arizona-West Virginia

Probably no at-large teams skidded into the postseason more than Arizona. They lost eight of 12 and two of the wins were to Oregon State, the first team to ever go winless in Pac-10 play. However, the Wildcats have two key players back, whose absence certainly contributed to the skid. Star freshman Jerryd Bayless and point guard Nic Wise. Bayless is averaging 20 points per game. Arizona is 1-6 in the tournament when seeded eighth or lower.

Texas A&M-BYU

The Aggies are 13-3 in the back pocket in their last 16 on neutral courts. The Cougars are 24-56 to the number as a dog. BYU has defeated Louisville and has won 15 of their last 17 straight up. BYU has just two NCAA Tournament wins since 1988.

Winthrop-Washington State

Eagles 10-2 last 12 neutral site games. Cougars are 3-10 their last 13 to the number to opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or greater.

Mississippi Valley State-UCLA

If handicappers are looking for a top seeded team that could rest star players, note that UCLA stud freshmen Kevin Love strained his lower back in the Pac-10 tournament. He has returned to practice. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute sprained his ankle and he is questionable. Miss Valley does have mostly upperclassmen and even a 6-10 senior Larry Cox to help contend with Love.

Temple-Michigan State

The Owls are 9-1 their last 10 versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or greater. The Spartans are 11-2 in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. It’s a 10:30 AM tipoff Detroit time so MSU will skip their morning shoot around.

Baylor-Purdue

The Bears are 13-3 as dog of 6.5 or less. The Boilermakers are 14-3 their last 18 overall as they have a push along the way. The Bears are 21-10 straight up with nine losses by 10 or less and eight to NCAA tournament teams.

Kent-UNLV

Kent went 16-0 at home, but Grandmaster handicapper Joe Duffy, of Dream Team at GodsTips, the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com, warns that a neutral game is no less a home game than a road contest. They won 18-of-21 down the stretch following a 29-point rout at the hands of North Carolina.

Duke-Belmont

Blue Devils are 1-7 against the spread as a Big Dance favorite.

GodsTips is 31-13 with CBB plays including New Mexico last night.

NCAA Tournament: Bet on Bubble Trouble in March Madness

Joe Duffy — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 10:27:06 -0500

As we approach the final week of the college basketball regular season, which includes the major conference tournaments, it’s time to remind you of one of the great pitfalls gamblers make. That is to bet on the team that needs a win more.

Combine this with the public’s infatuation with betting on the better team, some of the best investment opportunities are forthcoming in the early days of March Madness by simply fading bubble teams.

Why are they great teams to fade for the sharp player? The previously stated motive is one of them. The linesmakers know gamblers accept that the bubble teams will be more motivated, thus, bettors are ready and willing to lay extra points.

But the fact is, if a team is on “the bubble” they haven’t been victorious often enough in such “must win” games. The squads that excel in pressure games have their NCAA at-large bid locked up by this time of the year.

The most opportune situation is when a bubble team is matched up against a squad in a pure spoiler role. Let’s clarify the relatively objective definitions. Not that we really need it, but the cheat-sheet we utilize for which teams qualify as “bubble” would be Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology on ESPN.com.

Lunardi essentially has 12 bubble teams: last four in, last four out and next four out. From a handicapping standpoint, the list gets smaller as the year goes on.

A team in a “pure spoiler role” is one that has no chance at an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Again, Bracketology is our favorite cheat sheet if there is any doubt, though we of course follow college basketball to the point where we know who’s certainly in, who is out, and who is on “the bubble”.

One of our Golden Rules is to bet on inconsistent teams to continue to be inconsistent, while the public seems to believe unpredictable teams will somehow improve in stress situations.

When Team Bubble is going up against inferior “spoiler” teams, they are going to be overpriced because of public perception. We do caution that while betting against bubble teams is certainly our strong bias, as always the angle is merely part of our preponderance of data scrutinized before finalizing a bet.

In so far as over/under plays, we also lean towards betting the under in such games. In spoiler versus bubble team circumstances, there is plenty of motivation for both squads. Intensity shows up positively on the defensive end, but the angst of a must-win game shows up negatively with sloppy play on the offensive end.

The author Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. All professional handicappers are proud to show off the amount of research that goes into a pick. If a handicapper gives you no rationale, rest assured you just paid for a coin flip. Get accurate analysis for every pick from GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com

Post All-Star Game NBA Preview

Joe Duffy — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 13:37:05 -0500

Here is a sample of the OffshoreInsiders.com crib sheet: trends and tendencies we look for in sports betting, then proactively exploit.

Get Healthy Charlotte Bobcats Please

Anyone who has been a client of ours for years knows how much we exploit the dichotomous ATS and straight up teams. For those on the outside looking in, the teams that are most profitable for sharp players are top shelf teams that often win without covering or bottom dwellers that lose straight up but are able to cover the spread.

We have isolated the Bobcats as a strong candidate to keep on our radar screen. It has been a baptism by fire for first-year head coach Sam Vincent. He has learned from his early missteps, but continues to struggle with a shorthanded team.

“Leading scorer Gerald Wallace played in only one of the final six games entering the All-Star break, plus Raymond Felton, Matt Carroll and Derek Anderson all have bruised knees,” points out Curt Thomas, full-time NBA handicapper for GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com.

Thanks to their home arena hosting three college basketball tournaments, Charlotte plays 15 of 21 games on the road in an upcoming stretch.

After horrid 4-18 straight up on the highway before the break, it’s safe to say they will be getting tons of points. Thus, they just need to be more competitive to cover. They don’t need to win outright.

With a coach who has progressed with on the job training, a team that should, repeat should be healthier, they will be a more competitive team—the type of team that covers, but remains under the radar because they keep losing straight up.

Mavericks Go-Against in Three Games in Four Night Situations

The Dallas Mavericks blockbuster trade to get Jason Kidd will be a classic “step back to take two steps forward” move for the handicappers. The Mavs bench was already thin and they diluted it further to get the soon-to-be 35 year old legs of Kidd.

Losing DeSagana Diop makes them a smaller team in a conference that has most of the league’s top big men. The move should help come playoff time, but we look to fade them against teams with quality big men and in untested situations.

However, because of the trade, the public will perceive them as better and the odds makers must oblige.

Hawks and Over

The Atlanta Hawks are one of the most underachieving teams in the league.

They have two problems: coaching and point guard. Scratch the latter. Atlanta got Mike Bibby in a trade with the Kings. With Joe Johnson, the Hawks have a legitimate 1-2 punch.

The Hawks like to run and they got a necessary cog. We look for the Hawks to sneak up on the odds makers and also have a lot more high scoring games.

The author, Joe Duffy is part of Dream Team at GodsTips, the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. Check out all the free and premium information for sports betting at OffshoreInsiders.com

Boston Celtics and Detroit Pistons Top List of Favorites To Win NBA Championship

Joe Duffy — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 09:57:14 -0500

As the post All-Star Game stretch run is set to begin, sportsbooks have the Boston Celtics and Detroit Pistons as the favorites to win the 2008 NBA Championship.

Boston is +265 while Detroit is +275 according to Bookmaker. NBA betting expert Curt Thomas from GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com, says the oddsmakers recognize the Eastern Conference Champion will have an easier road than the Western Conference.

“We could see a team win 50 games in the West and not make the playoffs,” says Thomas, “thus no team had an quick path, while the East should come down to the Pistons and the Celtics.”

Phoenix and newly acquired center Shaquille O’Neal are next at +500, followed very closely by the Spurs at +505. Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com emphasizes, “The Spurs have been there, done that,” and adds that they are better than their record indicates because of several injuries.

Perennial bridesmaid and first-round upset victim last year, Dallas is +600. The Lakers, who recently added Pau Gasol to the equation, are +700.

Can LeBron James repeat and exceed last year’s one-man show? The Cavaliers are +2000, showing little respect for the defending Eastern Conference Champions.

Who is the best long shot? Thomas says it’s New Orleans at +1100. “Their starting five is their strength and benches shorten up in the postseason,” says the NBA betting guru.

To win your bets for the NBA stretch run, March Madness and more, visit OffshoreInsiders.com

Packers-Giants: A View From the Sportsbooks

Joe Duffy — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 07:43:50 -0500

The NY Giants will travel to frozen, and we do mean frozen tundra when they take on the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

For sports bettors who want to bet the moneyline, note that the Giants have won a stunning nine straight road games.

However, the Giants quarterback Eli Manning has played his best football in good weather conditions. The weather says the temperature will be around, if not below, zero. With winds at 13 mph, it will feel like -18. There will be no snow.

In more favorable conditions, Manning has gotten a quarterback rating of 100 or above in the last three games.

The Pack counter with a stunning 15-2 all-time straight up mark at home in the postseason.

Some spread records: The Giants, not surprisingly, have also covered seven straight on the road. They are only 8-20 their last 29 after getting less than 250 total yards per game.

The Packers are on a 7-0 run after allowing less than 90 yards rushing last game and 11-3 off win.

The Giants have gone under 8-1 road, while Green Bay has gone over 7-0 to NFC. They’ve gone over 13-3 overall. Currently the Packers are a 7.5 point favorite with a total at 40.5.

GodsTips, the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com is on a masterful 60-30 football overall run with many being moneyline dogs. Get both sides and both totals in the NFL with the NFC being a Wise Guy play for each. Wise Guy plays from Joe Duffy’s GodsTips are widely accepted by as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss.

It’s all at OffshoreInsiders.com

NFL Conference Championship Stat Comparisons

Joe Duffy — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 09:39:47 -0500

While the OffshoreInsiders.com will religiously check on the injury updates of Antonio Gates, Philip Rivers and most importantly, LaDainian Tomlinson, we take a look at some key number comparisons of importance to the sports bettor for the AFC and NFC Conference Championship games this weekend. San Diego Chargers vs. New England Patriots

On offense, Patriots have the upper hand to the surprise of nobody. They get 7.2 more first downs per game, 90.4 more yards, 1.0 more yards per play, but the Bolts do get 5.6 more rushing yards per game. What might surprise some is that New England has the edge in rushing yards per carry, though a negligible .1. The Pats get 1.37 more passing yards per attempt and complete 9.8 more of their pass completions.

New England has modest edges on defense. They allow 29.2 yards per game less, though yards per play is a dead heat. In fact, all other key comparisons are pretty close. The Chargers turnover ratio is six better.

New York Giants vs. Green Bay PackersGreen Bay gets 59.8 more yards per game on 1.1 more yards per play. The Giants do accumulate 16.4 more rushing yards per game and .1 more rushing yards per attempt. Green Bay gets 1.86 more passing yards per attempt. Time to use “negligible” again; that’s how to describe the defensive numbers comparisons. The 7.5 yards per game and .1 yards per play edge that the Giants have are demonstrative of how close they are across the board. We hand-pick the previews for this game “Drudge Report style” from around the internet at OffshoreInsiders.com

NFL Playoffs: By the Numbers

Joe Duffy — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 10:44:46 -0500

OffshoreInsiders.com takes a look at key betting comparisons for this weekend’s NFL playoff action.

Seahawks-Packers

Green Bay has the advantage in most offensive categories. They get 20.3 more first downs per game than Seattle on .7 more yards per play thanks in part to 1.1 more yards per rush.

The Pack accumulates .92 more passing yards per attempt, completing 4.3 more percent of their passes.

The defensive numbers are stunningly close.

Green Bay allows just 5.2 less yards per game, though Seattle permits .2 fewer yards per play. All the numbers are tight, though Green Bay allows a completion percentage of 4.0 less.

Jaguars-Patriots

The offensive numbers are closer than many would think. New England gets 5.0 more first downs per game on 68.5 more total yards and .8 more yards per play. However, the Jags get 30.4 more rushing yards per game on .4 more rushing yards per attempt.

The Pats get 1.29 more passing yards per attempt, while completing 8.5 percent more of their passes.

What also may come as a stunner is that New England notched better overall defensive numbers. The Patriots allow 31.6 less total yards per game than Jacksonville on .2 less yards per play. Jacksonville stops the run better by a .4 yards per carry ratio.

Chargers-Colts

The Colts get 4.4 more first downs per game, 27.8 more yards per game on .3 more yards per play. However, San Diego compiles 22.4 more rushing yards per game on .4 more rushing yards per attempt. Indianapolis had a .53 upper hand when it comes to passing yards per attempt.

On defense, give the check marks to the Colts by 38.6 fewer total yards per game allowed on .5 less yards per play. The Bolts though permit opponents to complete 4.7 percent less of their passes. The Chargers have the superiority in turnover ratio by 11.

Giants-Cowboys

Dallas gets 40.4 more total yards per game on 1.1 more yards per play. The Giants rush for 16.2 more yards per game though on .2 more rushing yards per attempt.

The Pokes have huge upper hands with passing yards per attempt by 1.99 and completion percentage of 8.4.

The Giants defense allows 1.3 less first downs per game as all the defensive numbers have negligible differences. Dallas has a turnover ratio edge of 10 better.

Who will cover the games? As always OffshoreInsiders.com will have the answers.

Seattle Seahawks-Washington Redskins: Pointspread Pointers

Joe Duffy — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 10:12:51 -0500

The sizzling-hot Washington Redskins take on the Seattle Seahawks in the first game of the NFL postseason.

Oddsmakers have Seattle as a 3.5 point favorite, and an over-under of 39.5.

The Redskins enter 9-7 straight up—but that includes a perfect 4-0 since the funeral of fallen teammate Sean Taylor.

While emotion was probably a contributing factor, the shocking play of 36-year-old journeyman quarterback Todd Collins is the main reason for the late season surge. Since replacing erratic starter Jason Campbell, Collins has completed 64 percent of his passes, throwing five touchdowns and no picks.

Seattle is 10-6 straight up and 9-6-1 to the number, but they are a stunning 7-1 straight up and 6-1-1 to the number at home. The Seahawks outscore teams by a phenomenal 27.1-13.9 at home.

Seattle is, in fact, an impressive 23-4 straight up at home since 2005, tied for the Colts for best in the NFL during that span. They have won three straight postseason games at home.

The aforesaid numbers compare favorably to a Redskin team outscored 22.4-19.2 outside the nation’s capital.

The coaching records suggest an upset. Joe Gibbs is 5-1 all-time against Seattle, while Mike Holmgren has lost four of five to Washington.

Some sports betting records (against the spread): Washington is 19-7 against teams with a winning record—but Seattle has covered five straight as home favorites.

Seattle has gone under 8-1 after getting more than 250 yards passing in the previous game.

The author, Joe Duffy, is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com—the place to go for all the spread-betting winners throughout the NFL playoffs.

Pats the Odds-On Favorite to Win Super Bowl XLII—But Who's Second?

Joe Duffy — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 07:52:03 -0500

It was only a question of by how much.

The 16-0 New England Patriots are the overwhelming favorites to win the 2008 Super Bowl. Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, Randy Moss and company are probative -139 favorites to win Super Bowl XLII.

The defending Super Bowl champion Indianapolis Colts are next at +550. While we could find no credible NFL or sports betting expert who believes anyone other than New England should be the favorite, several agree they are far from a lock.

“If Marvin Harrison can get even 80-percent healthy, the Colts will be a very live dog,” says Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com

The Dallas Cowboys are next at +685, though it is unknown at this time if Jessica Simpson will attend any games in her pink Tony Romo jersey. Green Bay, in Brett Favre’s sixth annual “might be his last hurrah,” checks in at +950.

Two years ago, Pittsburgh became the first road wild card squad to win the Super Bowl. The Jaguars are +1900 to do the same. Ironically, they open up in Pittsburgh, but the Steel City boys get no respect at +5000.

Mike Godsey, the top NFL betting expert at GodsTips.com, believes the Chargers are without question the best dark horse at +2004.

“They no longer have the worst postseason coach in NFL history (Marty Schottenheimer), and the fact Norv Turner underused LaDainian Tomlinson early in the year may make Norv look like a mad genius,” Godsey says. “Ala Jake Delhomme, Philip Rivers can be feast or famine, but he can carry a team when he’s on.”

Rounding out the AFC, the Tennessee Titans are very long shots at +11250. The NFC teams that oddsmakers give little chance to are the Seattle Seahawks at +4243, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7500, the other Manning (Eli) and the New York Giants at +7000, and the Washington Redskins at +6613.

Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com adds that, “If a riverboat gambler likes riding the hot hand, he may want to take a long look at Washington.” The Redskins are a team that played much better when Todd Collins took over at quarterback.

The author Joe Duffy is CEO of sports handicapping website OffshoreInsiders.com

West Virginia-Oklahoma: A Sportsbook Point of View

Joe Duffy — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 05:21:54 -0500

It’s the Fiesta Bowl, pitting West Virginia and Oklahoma!

For those sports bettors who are not satisfied with your winnings so far, here is a sports betting preview.

West Virginia is 10-2 straight up after closing out the year with a stunning loss to Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl.

The Sooners are 11-2 straight up, but had a very streaky year against the spread. They finished the year covering their final two, but are only 3-6 over their last nine in the sportsbooks.

Pat White and Steve Slaton lead a powerful Mountaineer offense that gets 6.0 yards per rush against teams normally allowing 4.1, and 7.7 yards per pass against teams normally allowing 6.8.

While California University of PA is best known for producing superstar sports handicappers [clears throat], they also manufacture some outstanding football coaches—such as WVU defensive coordinator Jeff Castell. Under his direction, the Mountaineers have allowed just 3.0 yards per rush against teams normally picking up 3.9, as well as just 6.3 yards per pass to teams normally getting 7.2.

But they have not faced a team as powerful as the Sooners. Oklahoma accumulates 9.2 yards per pass to defenses that normally allow just 7.3. Not afraid to bring eight defenders into the box, they also stymie teams normally averaging 4.2 yards per rush to just 2.8. Oklahoma holds foes to a full yard per play below their season average to date.

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Bowl Betting Breakdown: New Year's Day Games

Joe Duffy — Sun, 30 Dec 2007 07:18:16 -0500

This is Part 5 of series in which the Center of the Handicapping Universe, Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com. breaks down the statistical comparisons of the bowl games.

This report entails games of Jan. 1st...

Wisconsin-Tennessee

The offensive stats are close. Tennessee gets 2.0 more first downs per game on 25.1 more total yards. However, Wisconsin has the most modest of edges, getting .1 more yards per play. Yet the Vols get 62.6 more passing yards per game.

Talk about conflicting stats, the Badgers get 1.1 more passing yards per attempt and 2.7 more passing yards per reception.

The numbers give Wisconsin the check marks on defense. They allow 5.3 fewer first downs per game on 83.9 less yards. The Volunteers permit .2 fewer rushing yards per attempt. Every other comparison gives a small edge to the Badgers.

But Tennessee has a turnover ratio of nine better than Wisky.

Arkansas-Missouri

While Missouri gets 6.1 more first downs per game on 35.4 more yards, Arkansas has the upper hand in the most important category (according to sports betting expert Joe Duffy), getting .3 more yards per play.

But it’s a battle of differing styles as much as any bowl game.

Arkansas picks up 131.7 more rushing yards per game; Mizzou 167.1 more passing yards per game. The Razorbacks get a significantly more 1.8 more rushing yards per attempt but Missouri .8 more passing yards per attempt.

The Razorbacks have a more efficient passing game, accumulating .9 more passing yards per reception, yet the Tigers complete 11.9 more percent of their pass attempts.

It’s see-saw on defense as well. Missouri allows 29.1 less rushing yards per game, but Arkanas 50.3 fewer passing yards per game. The two most significant differences on defense are the Tigers permitting 1.8 less passing yards per reception, but the Razorbacks with a huge passing percentage against superiority of 16.6.

Michigan-Florida

Florida has the huge upper hand on offense getting 4.7 more first downs per game, 110.8 yards per game, 1.8 more yards per play including 2.8 more passing yards per attempt. The Gators also complete 13.1 more percent of their passes.

On defense, it’s the Wolverines who are superior. They allow 4.7 less first downs per game on .5 fewer yards per play. However, Florida allows 27.4 fewer rushing yards per game on .6 less rushing yards per attempt.

Michigan’s advantage is 98.2 fewer passing yards per game on 1.2 less passing yards per attempt and 1.6 less passing yards per reception.

Michigan has a turnover ratio upper hand of seven.

Texas Tech-Virginia

High powered Tech gets 6.1 more first downs per game, 210.8 total yards per game on 2.4 more yards per play. However, the Cavs have the advantage in rushing yards per game by 61.8.

The Red Raiders accumulate 2.1 more passing yards per attempt. They also have a commanding superiority in completion percentage by 13.8.

It’s pretty close on defense. The Cavs allow 62.7 less rushing yards per game, and 1.0 less rushing yards per attempt. But the Red Raiders permit 14.2 fewer passing yards per game. They have minimal edges as well in passing yards per attempt, passing yards per reception and passing percentage against.

Virginia has the upper hand in turnover ratio by nine.

Illinois-USC

Contrary to what many may believe, Illinois actually averages a slight 4.9 more total yards per game on offense led by a superiority of 80.3 yards rushing. They also get 1.0 more rushing yards per attempt and 1.0 more passing yards per reception.

The Trojans complete 5.8 more percent of their passes.

USC allows 3.3 fewer first downs per game on 96.6 fewer total yards per game and 1.1 less yards per play. It’s a clean sweep of superiority on defense for Southern Cal giving up 1.3 less passing yards per attempt, 1.4 less passing yards per reception, and a completion percentage against of 4.8 less.

Hawaii-Georgia

Hawaii gets 7.3 more first downs per game on 143.6 more yards offensively. However, the Bulldogs run the ball much better getting 97.6 more yards per game on .8 more rushing yards per attempt.

The Rainbow Warriors have a completion percentage of 16.8 better than the Dawgs.

The defensive comparison shows the teams closer than many may think. UGA allows 24.7 fewer yards per game, but Hawaii actually concedes .2 fewer yards per play. Hawaii allows .6 fewer passing yards per attempt on .7 less passing yards per reception.

Turnover ratio comparison goes to the Bulldogs by five.

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