Bleacher Report - Articles by Don Wayne

A Defensive View of the Portland Trailblazers

Don Wayne — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 04:52:59 -0400

You already know about Brandon, LaMarcus, and Greg. They're poised to provide the foundation of a very good team for years to come.

Wade will replace Kobe as the best shooting guard in the NBA within 3 years. Brandon will be right there with him.

LaMarcus is Pao Gasol reincarnated, with time and ability to improve.

Greg Oden is about to lay it on.

All that, and the Blazers are deeper than the Pacific.

The Blazers are for real, winning 54 games last season with the youngest playing rotation in the NBA.

Last year, the Portland Trailblazers ran the most efficient offense in the league. Although they will likely improve by modest degrees on that side of the ball, there's good reason to believe that this year we will see the Blazers make a statement of a different kind, becoming one of the better defensive teams in the league.

Allow me to first define what I believe makes a great defensive team.

The best defensive teams are not always the ones who hold opponents to the fewest points. Good offensive teams often create more possessions. More possessions translate into more points scored.

Points per possession is a more accurate way to measure the true defensive nature of a team. Great scoring teams can also be very good defensive teams, and points allowed is often a deceptive statistic.

Great defensive teams often have that guy who can stop just about anybody. But more than that, they share a common commitment to play team defense, to help, to trap, double up, switch or to lay a guy flat once in a while. The Pistons of the Laimbeer era come to mind.

Unfortunately, the Rockets from last year come to mind as well.

But this year, Portland will be more stingy than in past seasons. Here's why.

Brandon Roy is an offensive machine. But he's shown that when he wants to...when he needs to be...he can be a lock down defender as well. The problem is that he has been forced to take control of the offense too often.

That will change this year, as he plays alongside Andre Miller. Andre will allow Brandon to focus more of his game around stopping his opponent.

Roy's also had his first taste of playoff experience. He understands now, more than before, that defense wins championships. This year, you will see a more mature, more defensive-minded Brandon Roy.

Speaking of Andre Miller, the one big knock against him is that he's not quick enough to guard the quick, elite guards of the NBA. As 1 of 3 improvements to Portland's perimeter defense, he won't need to. He is still a defensive upgrade from Steve Blake.

Miller is strong enough to play great defense against the bigger point guards in the league. He will be good enough to play team defense, and against the Aaron Brooks and Chris Pauls of the league, he will have help.

Nicolas Batum came from nowhere last season to secure a spot on the starting team. He's improving his offensive game in Europe right now, but he is already a proven defensive specialist. Only 20 years old, Batum is primed to become the best small forward defender in the game today.

Those three together will form a new defensive perimeter that will help out...Greg Oden.

With his rookie year behind him, quicker feet, improved conditioning and better instincts, we're going to begin to see the presence in the middle that Portland hoped for. He will get more minutes this year, and he will make a difference.

Lamarcus will improve as the team commits to better defense as a whole. His length next to Greg's is a luxury only one or two other teams in the NBA possess.

And remember, McMillan preaches defense as often as Obama hands out money (not meant to be a political point, just the truth).

Portland's bench probably won't improve defensively by leaps and bounds, but they will be better. Blake is a defensive (and offensive) upgrade over Rodriquez. Pryzbilla is still a rock.

Rudy, Outlaw and Webster still have to prove that they can play on both sides. But all three are still young and logic dictates that they will be better as they mature.

If they don't, Cunningham and Pendergraph stand ready to prove their worth. Both of those guys are defensive upgrades over Channing Frye.

Still, Brandon Roy is the clear leader of this team. Only 25 years old, he has already reached into the realms of the most elite NBA players. He understands that it will take a renewed, team defensive commitment to win it all.

That's why you saw him call for a tough veteran after the playoffs last year. His leadership will influence the rest of the team in a highly positive way.

Don't be too surprised when the biggest surprise of the year will be how much better the Blazers are in terms of their defensive presence. It will be a topic of conversation. We'll see articles written about it.

But most of all, it will be self-evident as the Blazers reach into the 60-plus win category, and place their names among the elite teams in the NBA for the next dozen or so years.

Remember my prediction. The Portland Trailblazers are going to be a much improved defensive team, beginning this year. You heard it here first. It won't be the last.

Greg Oden: The Case of the Misunderstood Manchild

Don Wayne — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 04:14:49 -0400

Greg Oden has been called just about everything.

Coming out of college at Ohio State University, he was called a "beast", "the next Bill Russell", the "most prized Ohio State basketball recruit in the school's history", and "dominant".

Two years after being drafted number one by Portland and two injuries, critics added such labels as "the next Sam Bowie", "bust", "fragile" and "injury prone".

In a 2008 entertainmentinsider.com article, the collegiate Greg Oden was described as living:

"...up to the hype. He was simply a dominating figure, he had a soft shooting touch, could clog up the middle and block shots, and he was as intimidating of a player as there had been in recent memory. He, along with that heralded freshman class ran rough shod through the Big Ten conference.

"In the conference tournament, there wasn't a team who came within 10-12 points of beating them. Oden was his usual monstorous (sic) self, blocking shots and imposing his will. He eventually led the team to the NCAA Tournament final, where they lost to repeat champions, the Florida Gators."

Later in that same article, the author concludes:

"Oden may prove me wrong, but as of right now, October 29th, 2008, I will declare that Greg Oden is a draft bust up to this point. When you are supposed to be the next Bill Russell and all you have to show for it in your first 18 months of the league is 1 1/2 quarters played and two large injuries, that is a crushing disappointment that is hard to shake."

This is where I have a fundamental difference of opinion from the critics.

Most of us can agree that the NBA has never seen the anticipated Greg Oden—the one who dominated at the collegiate level, and the one projected by nearly every NBA scout and talent evaluator to do the same thing at the NBA level.

I believe this is primarily due to the following three factors.

First, about the surgery.

Portland fans nearly had a meltdown when it was announced that Greg would have to undergo microfracture surgery.

Although it had been performed before on other elite athletes, including some who had played in the NBA, and it was and is considered to be a minimally invasive and minor procedure, not all outcomes had been positive.

By Sept. 30, 2008, some 30 NBA athletes had undergone microfracture surgery.

Two additional players, Spencer Hawes and Doug Christie, had the procedure performed prior to entering the NBA. Notables included players such as Amare Stoudemire, Allan Houston, Tracy McGrady, and John Stockton.

Recovery time has taken as little as two months (Stockton, Hardaway, Najera) and as long as 16.5 months (Kittles).

Greg Oden was out for approximately 12 months.

It is noteworthy that the microfracture surgery that Greg Oden underwent was considered to be highly successful, and relatively minor when compared to other cases. The team exercised great caution in bringing him back, allowing him to sit out the entire 2007-2008 season. Doctors described the outlook as follows:

"The area where the damage was is small and the rest of his knee looked normal. All those are good signs for a complete recovery from micro fracture surgery."

Fans of the Blazers and Oden should take comfort in the knowledge that the microfracture surgery performed on Greg appears to be completely successful, and that no lingering problems directly associated with the surgery have been noted.

There is every reason to believe that Greg Oden's knee will not affect the quality of his career.

The second point has to do with conditioning.

While at Ohio State University, Greg was usually described as being between 7'0" and 7'1", and weighing roughly 250 pounds. Through the magic of YouTube, we can go back in time and see what a 250 pound Greg Oden looks like.

The season following his microfracture surgery, Oden never got back into "game shape."

This was attributed to the Blazers coaching staff not allowing him to put weight on his affected leg for nearly the entire year. He lifted weights to stay in shape.

While he added strength, his conditioning suffered.

To complicate matters, a foot injury sidelined him for the first two weeks of the following year. His conditioning was delayed even further.

Coach Jay Jenson claimed that Oden's playing weight last season was in the 290 pound range, a full 40 pounds heavier than he had been at Ohio State.

If you think the 40 pounds are insignificant, go ask your girlfriend, wife, brother, friend—someone—to strap a 40 pound weight on your back. Now, go out and try playing basketball.

If you haven't lost a step or two, or if you haven't lost at least eight 10 inches off of your vertical, you're probably wearing a large "S" under your shirt.

This was clearly an issue in the Greg Oden we saw last year, as opposed to the pre-NBA version.

So, where is he now?

Greg has spent the better part of the summer in Columbus, working out with Blazer coaches and former Blazer Brian Grant.

Kevin Pritchard reported "He's working his tail off and is in his best shape ever."

This, after repeated, glowing reports by assistant Blazer coach Bill Bayno about his improved conditioning.

Two weeks ago, Greg participated in a USA Basketball Mini-Camp event, held in Las Vegas. Playing against the best young talent in the NBA, Greg more than held his own. There were several occasions where he still looked a half step slow, but as a whole, he stayed out of foul trouble (the practices and scrimmage were officiated), and rebounded and defended very well.

Although it was Kevin Durant who would grab most of the headlines, the coaches and staff were generally very complimentary about Greg's performance.

Descriptive words such as "very good", "balanced" and "quickness" were used freely to describe his play. Jerry Colangelo reported that he's "got a future in the NBA and maybe a future with us (meaning the USA Olympic squad)" but added that he still had work to do.

Coach Jay Triano had nothing but praise for Greg, saying, "Oden was the surprise of the practice. He shut down everything inside."

Tweets from the sessions included the following:

"McGee, Randolph, Lopez, and Milsap have all tried to take it at Oden. All have failed."

"Oden showing some serious instinct during 5 on 5 defensive drills. I've counted at least 3 blocks."

"GO's first jump hook of the scrimmage over Lopez is money. Looked more fluid and natural than last season."

There were a couple of moments of disappointment as well. In the scrimmage, there was one play where Greg had inside position over Lopez, but ended up losing the rebound.

To make matters worse, Lopez scored on the play while Oden was called for a foul.

That said, he clearly appears to be in much better condition than he was last year. If progress is measured in direction and not necessarily in location, Greg's stamina and readiness is going to be just fine.

My final point has to do with a fundamental misunderstanding/recollection of why Greg was considered to be such a great High School and Collegiate player, and why he was drafted with the number one selection in the 2007 draft.

Kevin Durant has certainly not made Greg Oden's life easy, at least from a comparative point of view.

A scoring machine, he's a player who looks like he could easily win a scoring title or two. Now a full year ahead of Greg (due to the surgery season), Kevin scored 25 ppg and grabbed 6.5 rebounds in 39 minutes of play last season. The 25 ppg were enough to place him sixth in the NBA in scoring.

Meanwhile, Greg Oden, limited primarily by foul trouble, played only 21 minutes per game, scored only 9 ppg, and had 7 rpg and 1 bpg.

While armchair coaches across the land looked at the numbers of the former 1 and 2 players selected, it was natural to compare the results of the numbers.

But statistics can often be misleading.

Do you recall the quote at the beginning of this article? The one where the big fella was described as "... a dominating figure, he had a soft shooting touch, could clog up the middle and block shots, and he was as intimidating of a player as there had been in recent memory?"

That was and is the Greg Oden the Blazers are waiting to see. Not one who comes in and outscores Kevin Durant.

It's interesting to note that although Greg Oden was never expected to be the first or even the second scoring option in the Blazers rotation, had his statistics been adjusted for minutes played to equal Durant's, he would have scored 17 ppg, grabbed 13 rpg and had 2 bpg as a rookie.

That's significant for a player who was forecast to be a defensive-minded player.

And it hardly qualifies him as a "bust."

Look, I'm not claiming that the guy from Portland has been as successful as the guy from Oklahoma City in his brief NBA career so far. Far from it.

But I am saying—emphatically saying—that other than conditioning (which has been improving, and is likely to continue do so), and increasing minutes played by staying out of foul trouble (which I primarily attribute to slow feet due to a lack of conditioning—which caused him to play defense with his hands too often), Portland is likely to get a version of Greg Oden which is equal to, or perhaps better than, the one we all saw three seasons ago.

In fact, we are already starting to see it.

And as for Blazer fans, as well as true NBA fans everywhere, this is a very encouraging sign of things to come.

My Greg Oden wish list for 2009-2010?

1. Stay healthy

2. Get down to a reasonable playing weight (about 265) and stay there.

3. Continue to work on the little things. Improve by small degrees on a regular basis.

4. Let Andre Miller do his thing. He'll find you. Just get in position and be ready.

5. Have fun and don't worry about the critics. They'll shut up when you place your first trophy on your mantel.

And, if I could say one thing to the man-child from Indiana, it would be this.

"Stand up Greg. Just stand up and do what you were born to do."

Portland Trailblazers: Contender or Pretender?

Don Wayne — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 02:33:45 -0400

I just finished reading an online article where the author divined that the Blazers would finish fifth in the Western Conference this season, behind the Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets, and Rockets.

Fifth? Really?

Didn't the younger version of this team, minus Miller, Webster, Pendergraph and Cunningham, just tie Denver for second place in the Western Conference last season? Fifth seemed a bit low to me.

The reality is that the Spurs got better this Summer. Already blessed with talented players like Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli, San Antonio picked up two meaningful players in Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess.

Jefferson, although a bit streaky as an offensive player, is a tough and gritty presence. He, in particular, makes the Spurs better. In fact, some have suggested that San Antonio, not Los Angeles, is the preseason favorite to emerge from the West this year.

Denver didn't do much, at least in terms of adding real net value to their team. However, it's likely that they will marginally eclipse their season win total of 54 from last year, primarily because they didn't acquire Chauncey Billups until Nov. 3.

Houston will have a new look. Yao's injury and recent surgery to his foot will keep him sidelined for at least the 2009 season. Ron Artest is gone and in his place is the younger Trevor Ariza.

The Lakers need to and probably will sign Lamar Odom. If they do, they have to be considered the favorites once again. It doesn't appear that they have done anything to improve themselves, although some would argue that Artest is an improvement over Ariza.

The Portland Trailblazers are the wild card in the West. They have made significant upgrades over last seasons 54-win squad. Andre Miller was brought in as their sole free agent signing, Jeff Pendregraph and Dante Cunningham were drafted early in the second round, and both show promise of earning playing time.

Rudy Fernandez and Nicolas Batum should improve simply by virtue of losing their rookie tags, and Greg Oden has received particular attention by the Blazer staff in Ohio this Summer.

It remains to be seen how much Andre Miller will improve this team. He's not really a Steve Blake upgrade as some have suggested. Portland still has Blake. In terms of what the team picks up, Miller is a net gain over Rodriguez. That's a significant gain.

Miller is a very good offensive player and makes everyone else around him better as well. He's a throwback from another time, when point guards knew how to pass first and score when necessary. His defense is adequate and his leadership skills and basketball IQ are second-to-none.

Miller is also very durable and will run when the break is there. As a result, Portland should score slightly more than they did last year. A good shooter from about 16 feet in, his three-point shooting is abysmal. If not for the return of Martell Webster and the presumed improvement by Batum, this would be a problem. As it is, it shouldn't be an issue.

Cunningham and Pendergraph both impressed the coaching staff during the Las Vegas Summer League...So much so that Kevin Pritchard has indicated that both players will receive contracts.

How much playing time they get on a team that is now a legit 13 deep is another question At least, the Blazers are hopeful that the two rookies will add a layer of toughness to a team who got bullied out of the first round of the playoffs last year by a much more physical Houston.

The bigger questions center around Oden. Maligned much of the last two years by the press and fans (mostly by Laker fans for whatever reason), he seems determined to prove himself this year.

He dropped a summer class at Ohio State University in order to focus on improving his game. Coach Bill Bayno along with former Blazer, Brian Grant, have been working with him.

Reports coming back from Columbus have been very positive. His knee seems to finally be healed and his lateral movement and footwork are greatly improved.

Oden is currently in Las Vegas, participating in the USA mini camp. He has looked solid defensively and somewhat improved offensively. He will never be the scorer that the former No. 2 pick Kevin Durant (who is also at the camp and is the most impressive offensive player in the building) is, but he doesn't need to be in order to make the Blazers remember why the selected him. Coach Triano said about Greg:

"Just his physical presence defensively. I just thought he used his size and his brawn very effectively," Triano said. "We got 11 straight stops on one of the drills we were doing, and he was the anchor behind that."

As a Blazer next year, Greg needs to control the paint, block shots, score his 14 PPG and collect his 12 RPG. That's all. Portland has plenty of guys who can score. His defense will be improved simply due to the fact that he has healed and will presumably come into training camp in much better condition than he did last year.

Getting there on the offensive side isn't nearly as much of a strech as some have assumed. Limited mainly by foul trouble last season, Oden averaged nine points on 56.4 percent shooting, seven rebounds and one block.

He did this all in about 21 minutes per game. Projected out to 33 mpg, Greg would have averaged 14, 11 and two. Staying out of foul trouble and a very modest improvement will get him there next year.

(As a side note, it will be interesting to see how Greg's game is affected with Andre Miller feeding him the ball down low.)

Webster once scored 24 points in a quarter but only had 26 for the entire game. How is that even possible? "Baby Kobe" has the potential to shine for this Blazer squad, but his finish needs a little buffing.

The knocks against Webster have been a lack of consistency, and a lack of commitment to play defense. Last season, word was that he had made great strides in improving those two areas, but ended up only playing five minutes because of a foot injury...The original one and the re-aggravated one. What he is capable of doing this year is anyone's guess.

Brandon Roy will be Brandon Roy, you can expect to see further development from players like Lamarcus Aldridge (who is well on his way to becoming a star in his own right), Nic Batum, Rudy Fernandez, Travis Outlaw and even Jerryd Bayless if he ever gets the opportunity to play. Joel Pryzbilla is a rock. Portland knows exactly what they have with him.

Portland has a legitimate 13 players who deserve time. It would be an understatement to say that they are deep. The Blazers are probably the deepest team in the NBA now.

So, with all of the changes in the West, are the Blazers contenders or pretenders? Is it enough?

We can safely say that they'll be very good, but are they good enough to challenge the Lakers and Spurs for that top spot? In my opinion, they can absolutely challenge, but Oden, Webster and Miller all have questions to answer before we'll know for sure. If the Blazers all bring it, the rest of the NBA could be caught looking up.