Bleacher Report - Articles by Jon Ellsworth

Jake Locker, Best Quarterback In The West-Heisman Candidate?

Jon Ellsworth — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 17:46:05 -0400

Over at Dr. Saturday, the doc has gone off his rocker.

Pete Carroll is quoted in the L.A. Times as saying:

"That's the best quarterback we've played in nine years here," Carroll said when told Washington has beaten only Idaho and USC the last two years. "Jake Locker has ridiculous talent, and had he remained healthy last year, Tyrone [Willingham] would still be coaching there."

The doctor calls that "temporary amnesia." On doc's post, there is a clip from the 2005 National Championship game in the Rose Bowl. It's fourth and fifth from the Nine-yard line with Vince Young leading the Texas Longhorns.

He takes the shotgun snap, drops two steps, and scrambles under no perceivable pressure. He hits the right edge of the line, the weak side of the defense, and finds no USC defenders for 10 yards. So he jogs into the end zone, and Texas wins.

So is Vince Young the best Quarterback Pete Carroll ever faced?

I don't think so.

First, let's look at Jake Locker:

6'3", 226 pound JUNIOR. Electronically timed 4.33 40-yard sprint. Not a Florida-timed 40-yard sprint.

25-45 for 321.

Two TD one INT and 51 rushing yards vs. LSU.

21-32 for 278 DROP-BACK PASSING yards vs. USC.

This year, Locker can pass and run equally well, but he is passing more than running. But that could be because he's playing quarterback—not running back (call me old fashioned).

Why would that make him better than VY? Think of Terelle Pryor; he could run, but couldn't pass. Pete loads the box with nine players and shuts down TP in probably the worst game of TP's life.

A good passing game requires balance from the defense committing to pass rush and coverage—sometimes one more than the other.

Pete couldn't game plan in a shut-down scheme for Jake Locker the passer. And what Jake couldn't get with his arm, he picked up in the clutch with his legs.

Jake had a decent running back to take some pressure off of him at 2.8 yards per carry, but nothing to lean on.

Vince Young:

Young relied on his legs first to open the passing game, and then made most of his passing yards on play action. He had two dynamic running backs in Selvin Young and Jamaal Charles; they were legitimate threats.

The NFL has shown that Vince Young can't throw. He was Rookie of the Year on legs and hype. When teams figured him out, he's not starting anymore.

Doc lists a number of qualified quarterbacks that beat Carroll's Trojans or matched up in big games with them:

Aaron Rodgers - also had a 2,000-yard running game. Didn't have to do much.

Dennis Dixon - Runner

Ell Roberson - Who?

Jason Campbell - Didn't do much against USC

Brady Quinn - Marginally good, but one-dimensional.

Brad Banks - Who?

Jason White - Won the Heisman. And where is he now? Still in the pocket—his knees still don't work.

And then there was this from the Doc:

"We'll see the heights that Locker scales, and the hopeless pit of despair into which Steve Sarkisian will follow Willingham when his meal ticket moves on."

Sarkisian's meal ticket? WTF?

Someone hasn't done their homework. Sarkisian's resume as quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator at USC?

Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, John David Booty, and Mark Sanchez are all either in Heisman contention or have won a Heisman.

1 AP National College Football Champion (2003)

6 Pac-10 Conference Championships (2002-2003; 2005-2008)

2 WAC Conference Championships (1995-1996)

2001-2003 USC QB coach

2004 Raiders QB coach (ranked eighth in passing yards)

2005-2006 USC QB Coach

2007-2008 USC OC

He leaves USC and the Trojans pass for 110 yards against his own Huskies.

Willingham broke Jake Locker making him run and not teaching him to pass. THAT was meal ticket coaching, and Ty couldn't even do that well.

Sark has him passing first and passing well. It's an absolute transformation.

With Sark's resume and, as Pete Carrol can attest, Sark's recruiting skills—along with Nick Holt at defense—the Huskies don't look like they'll find a pit of despair any time soon.

Maybe Pete had a meal ticket...

Bad, bad, bad analysis, Doc. I'd like a second opinion.

Cougars Crushed: Postgame Analysis of FSU-BYU

Jon Ellsworth — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 11:16:12 -0400

BYU fans were stunned this weekend.

Florida State came in as a seven-point underdog and beat down a BYU team that may have been a little bit proud of its No. 7 ranking. Well, BYU won't have to worry about that anymore.

Coach Bronco Mendenhall gave credit to FSU (via ESPN.com):

"I think Florida State was more prepared in general than we were tonight, really from beginning to end," BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall said. "I think their preparation exceeded ours and it showed—especially on third down."

He couldn't be more correct.

BYU's zone blitzes that put Oklahoma's passing game in a freefall did not get close to Christian Ponder, who solidified his status as a top QB (21-26, 195 yards, 2 TDs; 11 carries for 77 yards, 1 TD).

The story of the game is what happened in the trenches.

Not only did zone blitzes not get to Ponder, but he had virtually no pressure in the pocket. He wasn't hurried and was never sacked.

Running the ball netted 313 yards for the Seminoles, as well. Ty Jones gained 108 yards on 12 carries, finding many of those yards after running into a wall of lineman and cutting back.

BYU defenders couldn't find a way to defeat blocks and reach a hand out to trip up Jones. BYU also couldn't find a way to keep from getting pushed five yards downfield on every running play, either.

It didn't help that BYU's offensive production was poor, at best.

BYU scored 28 points: a good mark, but turned the ball over five times...the difference in the game.

Max Hall threw for 3 INTs, something he is prone to do against better competition. His 306 yards and 2 TDs were competitive, but in the end, he did a lot to lose the game.

Running came fairly easy for BYU. Harvey Unga ran for 97 yards on 10 carries. But being down 13-0 in the first quarter put BYU in a position to have to come from behind, and running the ball was not a luxury the Cougars could afford.

In the end, BYU's BCS hopes were snuffed.

Florida State came well-prepared and well-motivated to upset BYU...and came through.

Lane Kiffin vs. Urban Meyer, Round Two: Battle May Be Over, War of Words Goes On

Jon Ellsworth — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 10:50:14 -0400

When Lane Kiffin became head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers, he put his foot in his mouth right away. On this fact there is more of a consensus than on the existence of global warming.

So he made some accusations about alleged recruiting violations by Urban Meyer's Florida Gators. And they were false. Urban Meyer then played the bigger man and moved on, right? Not so much. Not even the good Christian Tim Tebow could turn the other cheek.

So this last weekend, the Tennessee Vols made their way down to the swamp for a much-hyped showdown between Kiffin and Meyer-Tebow. It was supposed to get rough and bloody or something, right?

For the first person account as reported by ESPN.com, let's hear what Urban Meyer had to say:

"When I saw them start handing the ball off, I didn't feel like they were going after the win," Meyer said.

"They wanted to shorten the game. I remember looking out there and there's 10 minutes left in the game and there's no no-huddle, they are down, I think it was 23-6 and [there's no] urgency," he said.

Down 23-6, Kiffin hands the ball off to his tailbacks, who were fairly successful on the day. In fact, Kiffin felt that was the only way that he was going to win the game.

Who can blame him with three INTs last week against UCLA?

The results of his "conservative" strategy? A 3:26 drive running and dumping the ball to running backs, capped by a 17-yard TD run by Montario Hardesty. Seventeen yards is a long run, longer than many passes.

And with a little less than two minutes left, the Vols had another scoring chance and turned the ball over on a pass.

Tennessee came up short 23-13, a far cry from the 30-point spread against them- probably some kind of moral victory.

What's more, I call Urban Meyer's play calling judgment into question. It's probably best that he doesn't run a pro-style offense like Kiffin does.

What was Kiffin's parting words (from ESPN.com)?

"That was the best thing to put us in position to win, and we moved the ball doing that," he said.

"That was how we needed to play at that time. "I wish it was like basketball where we got another chance to play them, where we play them two times in a year," he said. "Unfortunately we won't get to play him again, and they'll have to play without [Tebow] next time."

And the final thought: "I guess we'll wait and after we're not excited about a performance, we'll tell you everybody was sick."

Ouch.

Kiffin 1 - Meyer-Tebow 1.

USC-Ohio State: Advanced Statistics Tell a Different Story

Jon Ellsworth — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 20:09:55 -0400

I ran some statistics on the USC/Ohio State game—I know, it is a bit compulsive, but its how I roll. Many Trojans fans had a bad taste in their mouth after the game, including myself. For me, I look at each game as a predictor of performance in future games. I try to find weaknesses and strengths and analyze how USC will match up next week. So get your thinking caps on:

USC—5 three-and-outs (counting the safety)

OSU—4 three-and-outs

*Both with 11 drives

USC—72 plays + three penalties accepted against

OSU—54 plays + four penalties accepted against

USC—4.3 yards per play (2008—5.6 yards/play)

OSU—4.9 yards per play (2008—3.2 yards/play)

I think a huge part of the bad taste in my mouth comes from the inconsistency of USC. Ohio State outperformed USC on yardage statistics, though only marginally, up until the final drive. USC made less yards with more chances.

Some Football Statistics

Counting the success of individual plays in context of downs and distance (from "The Hidden Game of Football")

An Explanation: Counting Single-Play "Wins"

1st down 'win'= gaining 40 percent of needed yardage (usually four yards)

2nd down 'win'= gaining 60 percent of remaining yardage

3rd down 'win'= gaining the 1st down

4th down 'win'= gaining the 1st down

USC—41 percent total 'win' plays

50 percent wins in the first half

31 percent wins in the second half, all but two wins coming on the final drive (eight 'wins' on the final drive + one win on the two-point conversion).

OSU—34 percent total 'win' plays

43 percent in the first half

27 percent in the second half

These 'wins' statistics may seem irrelevant, but they serve as a predictor of each teams' ability to get the yardage they need. In the first half, both Ohio State and USC were efficient at gaining needed yardage. The second half had both teams struggling to gain needed yardage, with Ohio State struggling more, which did them in.

One conclusion that we can draw is that USC's defense won the game in the second half.

USC

Six plays of 20+ yards (two on final drive)

11 plays of 10+ yards (three on final drive—including 20+ gains)

OSU

Five plays of 20+ yards

Nine plays of 10+ yards

We can see just how pivotal the final drive was for USC. Without it, USC is outperformed in every way.

Needless to say, USC fans can look at these and other stats and feel uneasy about USC's season. The offense did not perform anywhere near last year's output and the defense allowed a number of explosive plays.

What is most unnerving is the idea that with one or two more successful plays from Ohio State, everything turns on USC and the Trojans lose.

College Football Week 3: Predictions and Rants

Jon Ellsworth — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 11:28:33 -0400

Is it fitting that Jake Locker is striking the pose in this picture?

With a win over USC, which will require Locker to play a lights-out, Heisman-clinching game, it wouldn't be far from reality.

In this weekly column, I'll break down the top games and offer my predictions and two or three reasons why I picked them the way I did.

On to the picks:

Game of the Week

Florida State (-7.5) at No. 7 Brigham Young

FSU 13, BYU 27

1) Is BYU a legit BCS contender?

2) Can FSU salvage their season?

3) Heisman implications for Max Hall

Second Best

USC (+19.5) at Washington

USC 23, WASH 34

1) USC: Matt Barkley is probably out (shoulder), Taylor Mays is questionable (MCL), Havili is not part of the offense (coaching): neither is the downfield pass, or the short pass.

2) Sark and Holt know USC down to their socks.

3) Two Words: Jake Locker

Other Good Ones:

No. 14 Georgia Tech (+4.5) at No. 20 Miami

GT 31, Miami 20

1) Miami has been flashy, but generally not very impressive.

2) I put my money on the team dedicated to a system that has been working for them.

No. 10 Boise State (+7.5) at Fresno State

Boise 44, Fresno 13

1) Boise sophomore QB Kellen Moore needs to be on the Heisman watch.

2) Fresno was impressive vs. Wisconsin, and I expect a drop in performance after that heartbreaker.

3) If I was a betting man...

Tennessee (-29.5) at (arbitrarily ranked) No. 1 Florida

Tennessee 0, Florida 1,543 (or 56)

1) I'll check in from time to time to see just how biblical Tebow is getting on the Vols.

2) Is anyone else sick of Tebow and, most of all, Urban Meyer? There have been more stories of Urban opening his big mouth: from making promises he wouldn't keep to dogging on NFL coaching.

It could only be the highest form of poetic justice if Tennessee upsets Florida. I won't hold my breath, though. He and Kiffin are like the "Odd Couple", I think.

No. 17 Cincinnati (-1) at Oregon State

Cincinnati 28, Oregon St 34 (OT)

1) This should be an entertaining game. The teams match up well in style and talent.

2) A proving game for both teams to push into the rankings.

3) I take the Rodgers in this one, but it's a close one.

No. 19 Nebraska (-3) at No. 13 Virginia Tech

Huskers 16, VT 23

1) Big proving game for the Huskers

2) VT is proof that an excellent defensive scheme will always make you a top team (Yes, that's a rhyme. Little known fact: Frank Beamer actually wrote a similar haiku about defense and special teams).

In other Games

Besides Florida, the entire SEC and much of the Top 25 are taking the week off from competitive football. Don't tell Nick Saban, though. He respects every team he plays:

North Texas at No. 4 Alabama: Respect the Mean Green (0-100 in one season, if that's even possible)

Texas State at No. 15 TCU: I can respect the idea of trying to beat every team in the state, but I think they made this school up.

Southeastern Louisiana at No. 5 Mississippi: Come on

Temple at No. 5 Penn State: Maybe JoePa can shout Temple off the field like he does cameramen.

Louisiana-Lafayette at No. 9 LSU: I wonder if the first team will suit up for the Tigers.

No. 11 Ohio State at Toledo: Navy all over again?

Tulsa at No. 12 Oklahoma: BYU all over again?

With half of the BCS contenders taking a break this week, it will be good to see some of the fringe challengers play and make their case. Should be a fun weekend for non-BCS college football.

Crunch Time: Key Factors For BYU-Florida State

Jon Ellsworth — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 16:54:37 -0400

Is this really a big game?

BYU thinks so. The Florida State Seminoles enter Provo as a BCS conference player- an until the turn of the century- perennial champion. Florida State owned the 90's. Of course the tables have turned lately.

The Seminoles lost a classic heart-breaker to Miami at home and last week struggled against Jacksonville State. Yes, Jacksonville State.

But BYU has something to prove. The team coming into town legitimizes the Cougars' ranking and could provide another BCS-conference takedown this year, regardless of Florida State's performance in the last 2 weeks.

Again, the Florida State Seminoles are a has-been. They have struggled for a number of years now. Things were looking up in game 1 against rival Miami, but soon were lost in thrilling fashion.

Florida State wants respect- not just from polls and Sportscenter, but for themselves. Knocking off a top-10 team at their house would do a lot for their season, even if it is a non-BCS team.

At this point, the Seminoles have to look at this game in Provo as a critical point in their season. It is a must-win.

What does each team have to do?

BYU

1) Run the ball with power

Florida State is faster, man-for-man, but BYU is bigger on the offensive line and has proven to be bruising in the running game.

2) Spread the field and hit your big men.

Tight ends Andrew George and the incomparable Dennis Pita put the hurt on secondaries. They should match up well on a smaller FSU secondary.

3) Get rid of the ball quickly

FSU is fast, and the Seminole pass rush might pose some problems for BYU. Max Hall needs to make quick, smart reads and either get rid of the ball on time or throw it away.

4) Stuff the run, pressure the pass

Oklahoma had a difficult time with the BYU zone blitz. BYU can control the pass game through similar pressure as well as plug the running lanes.

Florida State

1) Spread and shred

QB Christian Ponder is a legitimate dual-threat, though he is a pocket passer first. He should be able to get some open receivers, and if not, he needs to turn it loose on the run.

2) Establish the run

BYU is not excellent against the run. There is some work to be done on the ground.

3) Possession

Florida State ought to try and control the ball, restricting turnovers and eating clock. Make BYU try to outscore you quickly rather than methodically.

4) Stuff the run

FSU must challenge BYU's run game first. They have enough speed to play run and then drop into passing zones. Get Max Hall throwing too much and you'll get some turnovers.

It should be an interesting game. Its been 10 years since the last time these teams met, and the circumstances couldn't be more different. Look for these two teams to play with urgency. Don't tell them this isn't a big game.

Outcome: BYU 34- FSU 24

Week 2 Rankings: I Heart Jeff Sagarin

Jon Ellsworth — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 15:30:53 -0400

Over at USAToday Sports, they have the latest Sagarin Rankings for College Football. Interestingly, the rankings come two ways: By Team and by Conference.

Some notes on the rankings:

Quality wins are represented in the rankings with a weight given to Top 15 wins and Top 30 wins.

Strength of current schedule is a contributor. So, if a team beats No. 1 in week 1, and that No. 1 team falls to No. 45 over the season, that win won’t matter come the end of the season.

ALL teams are ranked to compute these rankings.

Home field advantage is part of the rankings and predictions for the following week’s games.

Margin of victory is unimportant in one measure, and points scored are all that matters in another measure. These two measures combine to make the final rating.

Over the course of the season, all teams will be connected by whom they have played and who has played them—giving a ranking based solely on points scored and win-loss outcomes on the field.

The results as of week 2?

1 USC

2 BYU

3 Boise State

4 Alabama

5 Ohio State

6 LSU

7 California

8 Oklahoma

9 Texas

10 Virginia Tech

11 Florida

12 TCU

13 Missouri

14 Oregon

15 Miami-Florida

16 Utah

17 Penn State

18 Oklahoma State

19 Houston

20 Michigan

21 Georgia

22 UCLA

23 Iowa

24 North Carolina

25 Clemson

The team results of week 2 in college football are already well indicated by these rankings, in my opinion:

1) It pays to play against good competition, win or lose.

2) It pays to score points.

3) Every team will be connected by performance and success.

For the doubters, the conference rankings may or may not give you some comfort. Looking inside the conferences is interesting as well. Florida sits at No. 3 within the SEC.

It will be interesting to follow these rankings throughout the year and see how they predict outcomes.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Upset Alert: Five Reasons USC Will Lose to Washington

Jon Ellsworth — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 11:16:45 -0400

Pete Carroll's smartest move of his tenure as head coach of the USC Trojans is his hire of Norm Chow as offensive coordinator. USC's offense became explosive and smart, exploiting defenses and spreading the ball to an unbelievable talent pool.

After Chow came Lane Kiffin, who I think was given the reins to the USC offense as a favor to his father by Carroll, who coached with and is very good friends with Monte Kiffin, formerly of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Offensive output dropped.

Kiffin left and in stepped Steve Sarkisian, a Norm Chow protege from his years as a BYU quarterback to being Chow's assistant and QB coach at USC. USC's offense exploded again in 2008 under Sark.

Now Sarkisian is at Washington and brought USC's defensive coordinator Nick Holt with him.

In their first game of the year, Washington fought a strong LSU team to the brink, losing by one score. With LSU coming off a strong 2008 and playing the first game of the year, and Washington coming off a winless season, the result was surprising, impressive, and eye-opening.

The Huskies are for real. They have talent, and now they have two of the top coaches in the game.

So, what does that mean for the USC-Washington matchup this week? USC stands to lose this game.

Five reasons why

1) Steve Sarkisian is very aware of what Ohio State did and did not do to USC.

His offense will be more robust than OSU's and will take advantage of USC's defense the way OSU did not.

2) Two words: Jake Locker.

Jake Locker is potentially better than any QB we've seen in recent memory. He threw unbelievably well against LSU, with a few costly mistakes. He also runs better than Terrelle Pryor—something Carroll has recently mentioned in the media. Look for Sark to let Locker go all Vince Young on the Trojans now and then.

3) Nick Holt's defense should be able to work on USC's ultra-conservative offense, especially if Sarkisian can move the ball enough to keep USC in the shadow of their own end zone the way OSU did.

Remember, OSU got a safety off of USC.

4) Matt Barkley is injured.

Holt will come after him and make him screw up, and Holt will key on the run. It will be tough going for USC offensively—there won't be much passing.

5) USC players and coaches mentioned the hostility of the Horseshoe. It rattled them.

Just wait till you get to Seattle, Trojans. During the LSU game, the cameras shook all over the place—the stadium was a-rockin'. Washington is up for this game, believe that.

Upset alert.

Dear Coach Tressel: Fix Your Playbook!

Jon Ellsworth — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 10:37:47 -0400

There is a great article over at the Yahoo! Sports Blog Dr. Saturday in which Chris Brown of SmartFootball.com describes the demise of 'Tressel Ball', or in other words, why Ohio State lost a game they could have fairly easily won, considering what USC gave them and what they have available in talent.

I couldn't agree more with Brown's assessment. OSU ran the zone read play for almost seven yards-per-carry against USC in 2008, and did not run it once this year.

OSU has a Vince Young-prototype QB and did nothing to get him running the ball.

OSU has running talent in the backfield in Dan Herron and versatile talent in DeVier Posey and Brandon Saine that can catch and run in space.

I have added to Chris' critique of Ohio State's dismal showing on All Football (my own Web site) due to graphics incompatibilities here.

Please take a look.

USC Trojans Vulnerable: FIve Reasons They Will Lose Three Games This Year

Jon Ellsworth — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 01:12:34 -0400

USC came back in impressive fashion to defeat Ohio State in the Horseshoe Saturday night. The late-game drive was defining for the team. It showed their toughness and resolve to get together and get a win.

Unfortunately, it showed their weakness as well.

That late-game drive against a questionable Ohio State defense required that Joe McKnight put the team on his back and carry the Trojans to the one-yard line, where Stefan Johnson could polish it off.

Where was Matt Barkley? He contributed on third and long on their own side of the field, and he threw a gimme flare route to McKnight to pick up 21 yards. The next time he threw, he floated a strike to his tight end Anthony McCoy in the seam for a large chunk of 26 yards, really the only tough throw he had to make in the drive. He hit one more pass, a slant for eight yards. Finally, he hit Joe McKnight on a bubble screen to go ahead by three. Not a bad line—4 for 6 and 55 yards passing on the final drive.

However, I'm not so optimistic. Joe McKnight accounted for 72 yards of the scoring drive, receiving and rushing. What's wrong with that? The rushing yards came too hard all day for the Trojans:

3.0 yards per carry over the course of the game.

The passing yards came without ease as well:

15 of 32 for 6.1 yards per completion.

Conclusion: The offense is broken. Well, maybe not the offense, but the new offensive coordinator, Jeremy Bates, has a ways to go to fill recent shoes. And I leave Lane Kiffin out of the list of shoes to fill.

That last drive had some imaginative playcalling, with specific calls to exploit the defense. That didn't happen all game. It was like watching an SEC matchup where each coach is simply trying to prove how hard their offensive line can push the other.

The playcalling was generally so entirely predictable and bland for a USC team that it was hard to imagine this team competing for a national title. They looked like an SEC team—great defense and inability to consistently move the ball.

This is glaringly different from years of yore at USC. Some other problems facing the Trojans:

Too many zone running plays on first down, and not enough play action, screens, or quick shots to get the wide receivers one-on-one on the sideline.
Too much running at an 8-9 man box, not enough play action.
Too little QB movement. Barkley is an obviously athletic QB, but he did not move around much and felt the heat because of it, not to mention tweaking his shoulder in the process.
Too few quick passes.
No examples of exploiting a defense, at least not until the fourth quarter, third and eight on their own 19-yard line and Joe McKnight easily gets past the linebacker coming up to cover him. That was a gimme pass.
Too much defense—the defense was out on the field for way too long. Ohio State actually began to formulate a way to get down the field after a while there. No defense can play that much and survive unbeaten.

In the end, Pete Carroll was on camera all over the offensive playcalling. Offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates was predictable and unimaginative with the talent he has control of.

So, on to the point of this article:

Three games the Trojans have a good chance of losing:

September 19, at WASHINGTON

Watch for previous OC Steve Sarkisian to wear the USC defense down and put up points. Also, former USC Defensive Coordinator Nick Holt knows the USC D inside and out. It could be a barn burner.

October 3, at CALIFORNIA

Cal looks silly good so far. But they are doing damage mostly on the ground. That could play to USC's strength. But if USC's defense can't get off the field and the offense can't score, look for Cal to wear down USC and run away with it.

Either October 17 at NOTRE DAME, November 28th vs. UCLA, or December 5 vs. ARIZONA

Notre Dame is obviously much improved and just might come out to win.

UCLA could come in and surprise the Trojans in the battle of the L.A. basin, though QB woes for the Bruins make that less likely.

Arizona should be good this year and could ambush USC at the end of the year.

Why could USC drop these games?

1. Offensive production is suspect for the reasons listed above: The coordinator and his strategy are suspect.

2. Expect the defense to play more snaps, take more hits, and give up more points.

3. The opposition is up this year. Competition is greater.

4. Matt Barkley will, and I mean will disappoint. It's not his fault, he's simply made some very, very stupid mistakes already, and I think he'll make a few more before USC switches to Aaron Corp midseason.

5. Finally, like I mentioned before, USC looks like an SEC team—strong defense, bland offensive play-calling. They are predictable and ripe for the picking.

Being a lifelong USC fan, I think this year will be infuriating, like I felt 2007 was with John David Booty starting for Lane Kiffin, while Mark Sanchez waiting in the wings. USC is like any other school, though. Coaches have their politics; they have their favorites. No matter what you read about USC this year, and especially this week, do not believe the hype.

Playbook: How BYU Got to Sam Bradford

Jon Ellsworth — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 14:18:59 -0400

The reigning Heisman athlete in college football, Sam Bradford, was literally coached into the ground. Don't get me wrong, it's a shame to see an all-American kid like him get hurt. These things happen in football.

So how did BYU get to Sam Bradford?

The Spread

The interesting thing about the spread offense in football is that it tries to level the playing field. If you can put your athletes in one-on-one matchups or scheme them into large holes in zone coverage, you can win with less talent or put up ridiculous points with more talent.

At the same time, this strategy puts enormous pressure on the offensive line and Quarterback because they, too are put in more one-on-one matchups. If the defense can figure out how to get number advantages in the small areas between linemen, and can figure out how to cover the field with less defensive backs, the offense can be in for a long day.

Such is the case with Oklahoma and BYU.

This article focuses on BYU's pressure and coverage package. Oklahoma runs a standard 4-3 defense and put a cover two and cover four shell behind it most of the time. And they could match up man-for-man to pressure because of a distinct talent advantage. So there is nothing interesting about them.

What's more, the Oklahoma offense was disadvantaged only one NFL-quality tight end. They had the rest of their starting talent on the field. Talent that should be able to put a Mountain West Conference team like BYU in its place.

So what is intriguing is what the underdog did to take down the more talented big dog.

BYU's Pressure Package

BYU's defense was impressive all-around. Run support was phenomenal, though sometimes spotty. Most impressive was BYU's commitment and success in pressuring the passer.

BYU’s successful pressure package took the form of a number of zone blitzes. BYU doesn’t match up man-for-man with Oklahoma’s receivers, so it is necessary for BYU to utilize zone support underneath Oklahoma’s pass schemes, even when pressuring.

What is impressive about BYU’s pressure is that it necessitated vacating one zone coverage defender in order to put an extra player into a blitz. Oklahoma never seemed to find that opening. One particular zone blitz was extremely effective and ended up putting the hurt on Oklahoma, literally.

From Drop Box

In this blitz scheme, BYU came from the boundary side. This was also the QB backside, so it was less conspicuous to a right-handed QB like Bradford.

Defensive Line Play

The defensive line was in BYU’s “even” front- a shift of the whole defensive line one man over.

Ends (E) are lined up with one over the tight end or over where the tight end would be, and the other End lining up over the backside Guard.

The Nose Tackle (N) is lined up over the call side guard.

The outside linebacker (S) will then fill in to make an even look, taking a position over the tight end, if present, or over where the tight end would line up, if not present.

The End on the blitz side takes an outside leverage rush, taking the left tackle wide.

The Nose Tackle slants hard away from the blitz, aiming hard for the A gap ad taking the Guard wide away as well.

The other End now takes a hard slant away to control the B and C gaps on the away side, either applying pressure upfield or playing a pseudo-zone position on the edge to discourage a QB scramble and to discourage a quick pass to the short hook/curl zone.

Linebacker Play

The Will (W) and Buc (B) linebackers will be pressuring in this case. Buc strikes first to occupy the Left Guard or Running Back on the blitz side. On this play, it was the running back.

Will follows through, looping inside the End/left tackle and having a free path to the QB if there is no remaining blocker.

The Mike (M) linebacker checks run and then runs hard for the No. 2 defender on the blitz side- a long way to cover. Mike will have responsibility for walling and shadowing under #2 in covering the hook/curl zones on the blitz side.

The Sam (S) linebacker checks run as well and then breaks fast for the No. 2 receiver to wall and shadow No. 2 underneath and cover curl, flat and wheel zones.

Mike and Sam make up the only underneath support coverage.

Safety Play

The Safeties in this scheme cover deep halves and the Corners cover flat and wheel zones in cover-two fashion.

Results

In the instance of Bradford’s injury, the running back came up to block the Buc linebacker and Will ran past the reach of the left tackle, who tried to get back to close his inside gap. Bradford half-rolled away from pressure, but the Will caught him just at release and the rest is history.

Sam Bradford was leveled at least two times from this blitz on his final drive of the game. The second time he left the game with a shoulder sprain. BYU continued to run this blitz against the backup, Landry Jones, who was hit by the free linebacker as well.

Conclusions

It is interesting to note that in one of BYU's greatest accomplishments as a football team, head coach Bronco Mendenhall found his defensive Coordinator, Jaime Hill, after the game and gave him a big hug.

Why? BYU was well-prepared and well-coached for this game and it showed. They did not waste a single player in space, putting everyone in a position to cover someone and make a play.

Most football teams have a goal defensively to hold opponents to 17 or fewer points per game. That's two touchdowns and a field goal. Against the likes of Oklahoma, such a goal seams out of reach.

Thirteen points later (1 TD, 2 FG), the story of the day was BYU's defense. It seems that Bob Stoops was outcoached again.

Alternate Reality of College Football's Week Six Standings

Jon Ellsworth — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 10:49:49 -0400

Here are the Week Six standings for NCAA's alternate-reality 12-conference football league.

Orange Bowl Division							Fiesta Bowl Division
	ACC		Conf		Overall			Big 12		Conf		Overall
1		Virginia Tech	2	0	5	1	1		Missouri	1	0	5	0
2		Boston College	1	1	4	1	2		Oklahoma	1	0	5	0
3		Florida State	1	1	4	1	3		Oklahoma State	1	0	5	0
4		North Carolina	1	1	4	1	4		Texas	1	0	5	0
5		Maryland	1	1	4	2	5		Kansas	1	0	4	1
6		Wake Forest	1	0	3	1	6		Colorado	0	1	3	2
7		Duke	1	1	3	2	7		Kansas State	0	1	3	2
8		Virginia	1	1	2	3	8		Nebraska	0	1	3	2
9		Miami (FL)	0	2	2	3	9		Baylor	0	1	2	3
10		North Carolina State	0	2	2	4	10		Texas A&M	0	1	2	3
	New American							Mid-American
1		Central Michigan	2	0	3	2	1		Ball State	3	0	6	0
2		Minnesota	1	1	5	1	2		Western Michigan	3	0	5	1
3		Buffalo	1	1	2	3	3		Toledo	2	0	2	3
4		Tulane	1	1	2	3	4		Akron	1	1	3	3
5		Navy	0	0	4	2	5		Northern Illinois	1	1	2	3
6		Notre Dame	0	0	4	1	6		Temple	1	2	2	4
7		Western Kentucky	0	0	2	4	7		Miami (OH)	0	1	1	4
8		Bowling Green	0	1	2	3	8		Eastern Michigan	0	2	1	4
9		Southern Miss	0	2	2	3	9		Kent State	0	2	1	5
10		Army	0	0	1	4	10		Ohio	0	2	1	5
	Big East							Mountain West
1		Connecticut	1	0	5	1	1		Utah	2	0	6	0
2		Pittsburgh	2	0	4	1	2		TCU	2	0	5	1
3		Georgia Tech	2	1	4	1	3		Brigham Young	1	0	5	0
4		West Virginia	1	0	3	2	4		Colorado State	1	0	3	2
5		Clemson	1	1	3	2	5		Air Force	1	1	3	2
6		South Florida	0	0	5	0	6		New Mexico	1	1	3	3
7		Cincinnati	0	0	4	1	7		UNLV	0	2	3	3
8		Louisville	0	1	2	2	8		Wyoming	0	3	2	4
9		Syracuse	0	1	1	4	9		San Diego State	0	1	1	4
10		Rutgers	0	1	1	4	10		Southern Methodist	0	3	1	5

Rose Bowl Division							Sugar Bowl Division
	Big Ten							Conference USA
1		Penn State	2	0	6	0	1		Tulsa	2	0	5	0
2		Michigan State	2	0	5	1	2		Marshall	2	0	3	3
3		Ohio State	2	0	5	1	3		Rice	2	1	3	3
4		Northwestern	1	0	5	0	4		UTEP	2	0	2	3
5		Illinois	1	1	3	2	5		East Carolina	1	1	3	2
6		Michigan	1	1	2	3	6		Memphis	1	2	3	3
7		Iowa	0	2	3	3	7		Houston	1	0	2	3
8		Wisconsin	0	2	3	2	8		UCF	1	1	2	3
9		Purdue	0	1	2	3	9		Iowa State	0	1	2	3
10		Indiana	0	2	2	3	10		UAB	0	2	1	5
	Pacific-10							SEC
1		Arizona	2	0	4	1	1		Alabama	3	0	6	0
2		California	2	0	4	1	2		Vanderbilt	3	0	5	0
3		Oregon	2	1	4	2	3		Florida	2	1	4	1
4		Stanford	2	1	3	3	4		Auburn	2	2	4	2
5		USC	1	1	3	1	5		Georgia	1	1	4	1
6		Oregon State	1	1	2	3	6		South Carolina	1	2	4	2
7		Arizona State	1	1	2	3	7		Mississippi	1	2	3	3
8		UCLA	1	1	2	3	8		Kentucky	0	1	4	1
9		Washington State	0	3	1	5	9		Tennessee	0	2	2	3
10		Washington	0	3	0	5	10		Mississippi State	0	2	1	4
	WAC							Sun Belt
1		Texas Tech	1	0	5	0	1		LSU	2	0	4	0
2		Boise State	1	0	4	0	2		Arkansas State	1	0	3	2
3		San Jose State	1	0	3	2	3		Troy	1	0	2	2
4		Nevada	1	0	3	2	4		Florida International	1	0	2	3
5		Hawaii	1	1	2	3	5		Louisiana-Lafayette	1	0	2	3
6		Utah State	1	0	1	4	6		Middle Tennessee	1	2	2	3
7		Fresno State	0	1	3	2	7		Arkansas	0	2	2	3
8		New Mexico State	0	0	2	2	8		Florida Atlantic	0	1	1	4
9		Louisiana Tech	0	1	2	2	9		Louisiana-Monroe	0	1	1	4
10		Idaho	0	2	1	5	10		North Texas	0	1	0	5

And the top 25...

1	Alabama	3	0	6	0
2	Ball State	3	0	6	0
3	Vanderbilt	3	0	5	0
4	Western Michigan	3	0	5	1
5	Penn State	2	0	6	0
6	Utah	2	0	6	0
7	Tulsa	2	0	5	0
8	Virginia Tech	2	0	5	1
9	Michigan State	2	0	5	1
10	Ohio State	2	0	5	1
11	TCU	2	0	5	1
12	LSU	2	0	4	0
13	Pittsburgh	2	0	4	1
14	Georgia Tech	2	1	4	1
15	Arizona	2	0	4	1
16	California	2	0	4	1
17	Florida	2	1	4	1
18	Oregon	2	1	4	2
19	Auburn	2	2	4	2
20	Central Michigan	2	0	3	2
21	Stanford	2	1	3	3
22	Marshall	2	0	3	3
23	Rice	2	1	3	3
24	Toledo	2	0	2	3
25	UTEP	2	0	2	3

Week 5 Standings: Alternate Reality of NCAA College Football

Jon Ellsworth — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 18:31:10 -0400

I introduce the alternate reality of divisional College Football, which decides a champion in a playoff, with no preferences given. Seeding and ranking is based solely on merits, with Conference Wins as first priority, overall wins second priority, and least amount of losses last.

The Conferences needed realignment in order to get 120 teams evenly distributed, and I’m willing to bet, were this to happen in real life, there would be some significant realignments.

I will track the league’s progress throughout the season. It should be interesting to see how such an idea matches up against what the BCS brings us.

Enjoy!

The divisions and standings:

Orange Bowl Division							Fiesta Bowl Division
	ACC		Conf		Overall			Big 12		Conf		Overall
1		Virginia Tech	2	0	4	1	1		Missouri	0	0	4	0
2		Maryland	1	0	4	1	2		Oklahoma	0	0	4	0
3		North Carolina	1	1	3	1	3		Oklahoma State	0	0	4	0
4		Duke	1	0	3	1	4		Texas	0	0	4	0
5		Wake Forest	1	0	3	1	5		Colorado	0	0	3	1
6		Boston College	0	1	3	1	6		Kansas	0	0	3	1
7		Florida State	0	1	3	1	7		Kansas State	0	0	3	1
8		North Carolina State	0	1	2	3	8		Nebraska	0	0	3	1
9		Miami (FL)	0	1	2	2	9		Baylor	0	0	2	2
10		Virginia	0	1	1	3	10		Texas A&M	0	0	2	2
	New American							Mid-American
1		Central Michigan	2	0	4	1	1		Ball State	2	0	5	0
2		Buffalo	1	1	2	3	2		Western Michigan	2	0	4	1
3		Minnesota	0	1	4	1	3		Northern Illinois	1	1	2	2
4		Navy	0	0	3	2	4		Toledo	1	0	1	3
5		Notre Dame	0	0	3	1	5		Akron	0	1	2	3
6		Southern Miss	0	1	2	2	6		Eastern Michigan	0	2	1	4
7		Tulane	0	1	2	2	7		Temple	0	2	1	4
8		Western Kentucky	0	0	2	3	8		Kent State	0	1	1	4
9		Bowling Green	0	0	2	2	9		Ohio	0	1	1	4
10		Army	0	0	0	4	10		Miami (OH)	0	0	1	3
	Big East							Mountain West
1		Connecticut	1	0	5	0	1		Utah	2	0	5	0
2		Clemson	1	1	3	2	2		Brigham Young	1	0	4	0
3		Georgia Tech	1	1	3	1	3		TCU	1	0	4	1
4		Pittsburgh	1	0	3	1	4		Air Force	1	1	3	1
5		South Florida	0	0	5	0	5		UNLV	0	1	3	2
6		Cincinnati	0	0	3	1	6		Wyoming	0	2	2	3
7		Louisville	0	1	2	2	7		New Mexico	0	1	2	3
8		West Virginia	0	0	2	2	8		Colorado State	0	0	2	2
9		Syracuse	0	1	1	4	9		Southern Methodist	0	1	1	4
10		Rutgers	0	0	1	3	10		San Diego State	0	0	1	3

Rose Bowl Division							Sugar Bowl Division
	Big Ten							Conference USA
1		Northwestern	1	0	5	0	1		Marshall	2	0	3	2
2		Penn State	1	0	5	0	2		Rice	2	0	3	2
3		Michigan State	1	0	4	1	3		Tulsa	1	0	4	0
4		Ohio State	1	0	4	1	4		East Carolina	1	1	3	2
5		Michigan	1	0	2	2	5		Houston	1	0	2	3
6		Iowa	0	1	3	2	6		UTEP	1	0	1	3
7		Wisconsin	0	1	3	1	7		Memphis	0	2	2	3
8		Illinois	0	1	2	2	8		Iowa State	0	0	2	2
9		Indiana	0	1	2	2	9		UAB	0	1	1	4
10		Purdue	0	0	2	2	10		UCF	0	1	1	3
	Pacific-10							SEC
1		Oregon	2	0	4	1	1		Alabama	2	0	5	0
2		Stanford	2	1	3	2	2		Auburn	2	1	4	1
3		Arizona	1	0	3	1	3		Vanderbilt	2	0	4	0
4		California	1	0	3	1	4		Georgia	1	1	4	1
5		Oregon State	1	1	2	2	5		Mississippi	1	1	3	2
6		Arizona State	1	0	2	2	6		Florida	1	1	3	1
7		USC	0	1	2	1	7		Kentucky	0	0	4	0
8		Washington State	0	2	1	4	8		South Carolina	0	2	3	2
9		UCLA	0	1	1	3	9		Mississippi State	0	2	1	4
10		Washington	0	2	0	4	10		Tennessee	0	2	1	3
	WAC							Sun Belt
1		San Jose State	1	0	3	2	1		LSU	2	0	4	0
2		Utah State	1	0	1	3	2		Arkansas State	1	0	3	2
3		Texas Tech	0	0	4	0	3		Troy	1	0	2	2
4		Fresno State	0	0	3	1	4		Arkansas	0	1	2	2
5		Boise State	0	0	3	0	5		Middle Tennessee	0	2	1	3
6		Nevada	0	0	2	2	6		Florida Atlantic	0	0	1	3
7		Louisiana Tech	0	0	2	1	7		Florida International	0	0	1	3
8		Hawaii	0	1	1	3	8		Louisiana-Lafayette	0	0	1	3
9		Idaho	0	1	1	4	9		Louisiana-Monroe	0	0	1	3
10		New Mexico State	0	0	1	2	10		North Texas	0	0	0	4

The Top 25:

Top 25		Conference		Overall
1	Alabama	2	0	5	0
2	Ball State	2	0	5	0
3	Utah	2	0	5	0
4	Auburn	2	1	4	1
5	Central Michigan	2	0	4	1
6	Oregon	2	0	4	1
7	Virginia Tech	2	0	4	1
8	Western Michigan	2	0	4	1
9	LSU	2	0	4	0
10	Vanderbilt	2	0	4	0
11	Stanford	2	1	3	2
12	Marshall	2	0	3	2
13	Rice	2	0	3	2
14	Connecticut	1	0	5	0
15	Northwestern	1	0	5	0
16	Penn State	1	0	5	0
17	Georgia	1	1	4	1
18	Maryland	1	0	4	1
19	Michigan State	1	0	4	1
20	Ohio State	1	0	4	1
21	TCU	1	0	4	1
22	Brigham Young	1	0	4	0
23	Tulsa	1	0	4	0
24	Clemson	1	1	3	2
25	East Carolina	1	1	3	2

BYU’s Winning Formula, Part II: The Offense

Jon Ellsworth — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 17:51:03 -0400

Even though BYU had the week off, let’s take a look at what they have in their bag offensively.

In Part I, we took a look at the overall picture of BYU football. BYU has a history of offense descended from great West Coast minds, but oddly enough, created from scratch for the program by a guy named Dewey Warren.

It evolved through the years as other offensive minds, such as Mike Holmgren, Brian Billick, and Norm Chow grabbed prior work and elaborated, incorporating West Coast principles into pro-style offense.

Today we have evolved even further. Robert Anai began a simple offense that had few plays and a basic spread set. He was going to pass, and pass a lot. Lucky for BYU, Anai recognizes talent when he sees it.

Although Max Hall has proven himself to be a capable quarterback, he hasn’t exceeded the play of prior BYU QB John Beck in any way. Beck was a surgeon on the field. Hall has modest numbers and hasn’t been extremely flashy with his performance, but he hasn’t had to. He won’t give away a game this year.

One huge reason for BYU’s success and Max Hall’s relatively quick ascension as a star QB is BYU’s backfield. BYU has often had good running backs, but none as impressive as Harvey Unga.

When you scout a running back, there are some distinct features you can look for. The features are speed, agility, awareness of blitzes, punishing running, vision, and hands. Unga has these all.

Watching him run, you can expect him to approach the hole under control and possibly bounce outside with a burst of speed. He’ll fly around the corner and downfield. When he finally gets surrounded, he lowers his pads and puts 230 pounds of punishment on defenders.

If he finds the hole inside, watch him pound for as many as he can get. He doesn't go down easily.

BYU is one of the only teams in football that runs the H option play. H option sends the running back upfield about three yards, where he’ll read the defender closest to him for man or zone coverage and choose an angle, out, or curl path. BYU runs a tight end over the top of the running back’s path to occupy defenders.

This play is almost guaranteed five yards when Unga touches it. It is extremely high percentage completion and yardage thanks to Harvey.

Harvey is the brightest star on this offense and the key to its success so far. Because he does so much, it is hard to key on him—not to mention that the rest of the offense has the talent to make you pay for singling him out.

Fui Vakapuna supplements Unga in the backfield as a fullback or second running back threat. Unga occasionally blocks for him. Fui is not the Fui of old—dominating and physical running style and ridiculous enthusiasm for even one yard—but he is potent in the role he plays.

BYU has stellar tight ends: The eighth-leading receiver in the nation is Dennis Pitta, BYU tight end. Andrew George is the second option—both have golden hands and can contribute on the line.

BYU’s receivers might be their weakest position on offense, though they are a stellar group as well. Austin Collie is as fast as anyone in college football and has hands to match the speed. He is dependable and tough—a far cry from the receivers of the Gary Crowton days.

Michael Reed is out with an injury lately, but he is a legitimate deep threat as well as a tough possession receiver. Overlooking these wideouts is a bad idea.

In these times of spread offenses and modified single-wings, BYU is at its best with base personnel: two running backs, one tight end, and two wide receivers. It would be tough to find another team in football that could boast a potent short, medium, and long yardage offense from a base personnel group.

Even with this potent group, any substitutions do nothing to take away from the potential of the offense. They have talent to match anyone here.

On Friday night, Oct. 3, watch for another shutout for BYU, with Utah State being the next victim of the Cougar.

USC-Oregon State: The Mystic Beaver Bites Again—Plus, Conference Play Is Key

Jon Ellsworth — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 05:18:27 -0400

As time expired on USC last night, I was taken back two years ago—no, four years ago. Both, I guess.

Two years ago, USC marched into Corvallis, Oregon to battle a lesser opponent in Oregon State. They left at the short end of a 33-31 score. That game truly began for USC when they were down 23 points. They showed up and made a contest of it, failing only on the final play—a two-point conversion.

Four years ago, you could hardly see the game unfold in the eerie fog. Pete Carroll even said that something did not seem right. I sensed it—there was something in that air out to get USC. Shadows and forms of players ran the field, and in the end, USC barely escaped the Beaver on the shoulders of Reggie Bush and a 65-yard punt return TD.

Every Superman has his Kryptonite. It stands to reason that Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon is USC’s Kryptonite.

Perhaps buried in the foundations of the stadium are the remains of a Charger of yore, or perhaps a breastplate, helmet, and sword, all enchanted by some hippie voodoo. Whatever the case, the spirits of Reser have had USC’s number for the last four years, if not longer.

The matchup seemed elementary: USC’s “greatest defense EVER!!!” against an offense that had been dismantled and stuffed by the likes of Penn State and Stanford. USC’s offense has been just as dominant as their defense. But the Beaver is unforgiving.

Mistakes and lack of execution brought USC to three-and-outs. When the defense took the field, their size and speed proved to be a LIABILITY.

They penetrated too well, too far and couldn’t get down to the level of the ‘Quizz Rodgers, who was unstoppable. They could catch him, but they could never get enough of a grip on him to get him down. By the way, the horse collar tackle is now illegal, boys.

Junior QB Lyle Moevao was efficient and precise as well. He’s sitting on a QB rating of 131.76, for crying out loud. Who are these guys?!

Finally, when the ball bounced, Reser Stadium made sure the ball went the way of the Beavers. One TD catch off of the palms (?!) of a USC defender. An uncharacteristic fumble. An onside kick that sliced badly from the bounce.

Yes, Pete Carroll, next time you enter Reser Stadium, bring a Shinto priest. Exorcise the demons out of that place. Something evil lurks there...

Conference Play

So what did we learn from this? USC has played an admirable non-conference schedule, better than most teams out there. What does it count for? Nothing.

Pete Carroll said after the game, “This conference is so hard...” Yeah, right. The Pac-10 was just demolished by the lowly Mountain West.

Why should conference play be any more difficult? Familiarity. Conferences match up the same teams against each other every year, and teams get familiar with tendencies and the competition. Conference play is harder for that reason.

Non-conference play is difficult because of lack of familiarity, but I would argue that the familiarity of conference opponents breeds more contempt and competition.

Personally, I like non-conference matchups a lot. It tells a lot about teams and coaches, but only when it is competitive. Throw out the results of lower division games in favor of better competition.

When the conference games come, buckle up—anything can happen.

Set Your TiVO for Week One of College Football

Jon Ellsworth — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 08:44:14 -0400

Friday, Aug. 29

I suggest two hours of viewing here, unless your boys are playing. Save yourself for a wild next three days.

7:30 P.M., Jacksonville State at Georgia Tech

A half hour of Georgia Tech’s triple option will be a good introduction to the season: a throwback of sorts to bygone days. Then shift gears to the 8 P.M. game.

8 P.M., North Carolina State at South Carolina

The old ball coach will provide a good hour of rivalry football against NC State. Look for vanilla spread offenses and zone running. Prepare to be bored quickly though, so at 9 P.M. you'll change.

9 P.M., Oregon State at Stanford

Pac Ten showdown. I am personally interested in Stanford’s season this year. Jim Harbaugh has to be one of the most audacious people on the planet and it may help him win a few this year. This might be one of them. I will probably turn the TV off after 30 minutes of this. Good first day of football.

Saturday, Aug. 30

Now we get to some must-watch games, or at least "must track on your computer as you watch another game" games.

12 Noon, Youngstown State at Ohio State

Tressel’s old team comes to bring another lower-division upset to the Big Ten. Or they’re just doing him a favor early on.

12:30 P.M., Hawaii at Florida

Florida’s defense should be able to match up well with the spread offense of Hawaii, if that’s what Hawaii ends up doing. If Hawaii mixes it up well, this could be a close game. The media-anointed “Superman” should have a big game and we will all hear “Heisman repeat” long before it starts, but quite a bit afterwards as well.

3:30 P.M., Utah at Michigan

Utah has a very good defense that may have answers for Rich Rod’s spread option offense. If Bryan Johnson stays healthy for more than seven minutes and plays well, this could be a very good game and a very possible early upset.

3:30 P.M., USC at Virginia

Flip between this and Utah/Michigan. USC has rarely come out with guns blazing in the early games, so this game could provide some stress. Defensively, there should not be too many surprises for the Trojans or Cavaliers, but they will both have their hands full offensively.

5 P.M., Appalachian State at LSU

Possible game of the year. Look for App State to spread it out, pass short, and run the QB all over, just like they did at Michigan. Look for them to come out and play well. LSU’s D-line has a big responsibility in this game and the secondary/linebackers will be stretched out often.

Gary Crowton has never done as well as OC in year two and beyond anywhere, so LSU may have some scoring issues. A wise thing to do would be to power down the field.

8 P.M., Alabama at Clemson

Another must-see game. Nick Saban’s debut against a much-hyped Clemson team that always seems to be overrated or underachieving. You pick. I look for Alabama to shut down a predictable, vanilla SEC Clemson offense.

The question mark will be Clemson’s defense. If they can match the success of a Nick Saban defense, this will be a classic defensive struggle with field position and special teams playing a big part in success for the winner.

8:30 P.M., Illinois at Missouri

Juice and Chase take the field. This should be fun to watch. We may see a lot of points go on the board and get a good look at two Heisman hopefuls. As well as seeing the stage set for each team’s run to a BCS bowl.

Sunday, Aug. 31

3:30 P.M., Kentucky at Louisville

Classic rivalry. This game features two re-tooled teams with new quarterbacks at the helms after the departures of Andre Woodson and Brian Brohm. Kentucky may have the upper hand with a more experienced, more productive ground game than Louisville had last year.

7:30 P.M., Colorado State at Colorado

Another early rivalry game. With a new staff in Ft. Collins, the Rams have their work cut out for them against Dan Hawkins’ Buffaloes.

Monday, Sept. 1

4:30 P.M., Fresno State at Rutgers

Both are Cinderella’s. Rutgers has come a very long way and will run into an always tough Fresno State team. These are two very similar styles of football and should provide a very good game. Should Fresno State pull off a victory, look for them to be in BCS contention until next week at Wisconsin.

If they win there look for them to be in contention until two weeks later at UCLA. If they win there they have Hawaii and Boise State on the schedule—both legitimate contenders. Kudos to the Bulldogs for playing “anyone, anywhere.” They have a tough enough schedule to be given a title shot should they go undefeated and only one other team does.

8 P.M., Tennessee at UCLA

Norm Chow may get the opportunity to stick it to the football fans of Tennessee, but I doubt it. Vince Young will do that. This should be a good game to gauge the future of both teams. And contrary to what you will hear all weekend long, it will have no bearing on the superiority of one conference over the other. Welcome to week one.

I can't think of a better week one than this. We have rivalries, top 25 matchups, the works. Enjoy!