Bleacher Report - Articles by Ben NS

The Five Most Overrated Fantasy Baseball Players for 2008

Ben NS — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 07:48:53 -0500

This is not a list of bad players, but for one reason or another each player here will be drafted earlier than he should be.

Some have started to decline, others have been trumpeted as top prospects, others suffer from the winner’s curse.

When you’re preparing your 2008 fantasy team, beware of jumping the gun on these five players:

Eric Byrnes, LF, Arizona Diamondbacks .286/21HR/83RBI/103R/50SB

Who doesn’t want Eric Byrnes on their fantasy team? He hustles at all times, flips as he throws the ball in from left and even brings his dog out into McCovey Cove with him. Just don’t let his antics trick you into drafting him before the fifth or sixth round.

Even if we set aside the question of whether, at 32, he can replicate a 2007 season that saw him establish career highs in four of the five fantasy categories, we know that Byrnes’ playing style will tempt owners into picking him while more proven or promising players (like Abreu, Markakis, Rios or Hart) remain on the board.

Manny Ramirez, LF, Boston Red Sox .296/20HR/88RBI/84R/0SB

The last time that Manny had fewer HR and RBI? 1994. It’s been a great run for ManRam, but he’s no longer the first or second rounder he once was. In fact you shouldn’t pick Manny in the first 10 rounds. He’s another guy who’s a lot of fun to root for, but you need production from an early pick, and Manny—who did play in 133 games last year—can’t offer that anymore.

He’ll be 36 years old and there’s no reason to believe he’ll top 30 HR or 100 RBI. Guys like Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter offer more upside and they can help you in more categories.

Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds .319/26HR/89RBI/87R/8SB between A+ and AAA

The 20-year-old super-prospect is, in the opinions of many, the best prospect in the game. This does not mean that he’s going to go Ryan Braun on us and take the league by storm. It is possible that, with only part of a season played above A ball, he’ll struggle.

Last year, Alex Gordon was similarly hyped, but, without experience above AA, had trouble adjusting. I’m not saying that Bruce doesn’t have .300/ 30/ 100 potential- even for 2008- but it would be foolish to expect it from him. I’d rather miss out on Bruce and have someone else overbid than invest in him as anything more than a fourth outfielder.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox .317/8HR/50RBI/86R/7SB

Ironic that Pedroia, a guy who’s anything but a flashy attention seeker who puts up big numbers, would end up on this list. I guess that’s what happens when you win Rookie of the year and the World Series in your first season, coming through with clutch hits throughout the playoffs.

Still, look at his numbers and compare them to other second basemen’s stats. There are at least 10 guys I’d rather have on my fantasy team (Utley, Phillips, Upton, Uggla, Roberts, Cano, Polanco, Kinsler, Weeks, Kendrick, and Kent come to mind).

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies .291 /24HR /99RBI /104R /7SB

Tulowitzki’s a phenomenal player who’s only going to improve. Not many guys can do what he did after just 517 minor league at bats. From May 25th on, he hit .305/.367/.525 with 22 of his 24 homers.

So why is he overrated? Well, like Pedroia, he played in the World Series and was among his league’s best rookies. His defense was also sensational, as he led the league with a .987 fielding percentage and 561 assists. (Q: how many times has Omar Vizquel collected 500+ assists? A: zero).

His defense makes him incredibly valuable to Colorado, but not to you. So let someone overbid and take him in the third round while you settle for Jeter, Carlos Guillen, or Michael Young.

The Toronto Blue Jays' Top 10 Prospects

Ben NS — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 15:09:33 -0500

The Blue Jays don’t have a lot to get excited about, especially when you look at all of the prospects the other AL East teams have.

I’ve taken a look through the Jays’ minor league system from Syracuse to the Gulf Coast League and formed a list of their best prospects. I should qualify this before the J.P. Arencibia and Justin Jackson fans out there become enraged.

As much as I like pedigree and tools, I didn’t overlook minor league failures (so that means Arencibia and Jackson rank lower than they do elsewhere). And as much as I like minor league success, I didn’t overrate it (so that rules out John-Ford Griffin and Kevin Barker).

So, without further introduction, here are my top Blue Jays prospects going into the 2008 season:

10. Matthew Liuzza, C, Born: Feb. 3, 1984

One of many catchers with upside, Liuzza has more power than any of his fellow backstops in the system. He’s hit 20 HR to go along with 31 2B and four 3B in 503 minor league at bats. Liuzza showed impressive patience last year, boosting his walk rate from 7.6 percent to 13.3 percent in 2007. He’s only reached A ball, but his power should carry him far. Could he become a poor man’s Jason Varitek?

9. J.P.Arencibia, C, Born: Jan. 5, 1986

Arencibia is a 21-year-old, high-ceiling catcher selected 21st overall in the ’07 draft. He hit 254/309/377 in 228 ABs in low A.

8. Justin Jackson, SS, Born: Dec. 11, 1988

Jackson, selected 45^thoverall in the ’07 draft, hit 187/274/241 in rookie ball.

7. Jonathan Diaz, SS, Born: April 10, 1985

Diaz made huge strides last year, though, at 22, he’s never played above A ball. He was bumped a level in 2007 and still managed to raise his average by 47 point, his OBA by 80 points and his SLG by 97 points. He’s struck out exactly 55 times each of the last two years, but in 2007 he walked 82 times as opposed to 30 in 2006. Diaz has little power, but does have good base-running abilities.

6. Seth Overbey, RP, Born: April 30, 1984

The Jays could have two Overb*ys on the active roster soon. Seth (who is not related to Lyle, of course) was phenomenal at A ball, allowing no runs and only 12 hits in 24.2 innings, striking out 21. He moved up to AA and was decent, but not overly impressive in his stint with the Fisher Cats. Still just 23, he could surface in Toronto in 2008.

5. John Tolisano, 2B, Born: Oct. 2, 1988

Tolisano made his pro debut in the Gulf Coast League as a rookie-baller in 2007. He impressed with his power and plate discipline, hitting 246/336/437. He added 10 HR and, though he struck out a lot, walked in 12.4 percent of his plate appearances. Though he played at second last year, Baseball America notes that he could end up in the outfield. There’s no reason that Tolisano shouldn’t be a regular for the Jays by 2011.

4. Kevin Ahrens, SS, Born: April 26, 1989

Their 16th overall pick in the ’07 draft was this 18-year-old third baseman. Kevin Goldstein suggests that Ahrens has an All-Star ceiling. The switch-hitter was solid without overwhelming anyone in his debut season. He hit 230/339/321 in the Gulf Coast League, but walked 25 times in 190 PA.

3. Brett Cecil, SP, Born: July 2, 1986

The lefty has only appeared in 14 games as a pro, so we can’t get too excited about Cecil. It’s hard to get off to a better start than he did though. Cecil’s ERA was 1.27 and he allowed only one homer in 49.2 innings in low A ball. Eased into a starting role as a pro after a college career as a closer, Cecil struck out 56 and only walked 11 in his pro debut.

2. Brian Jeroloman, C, Born: May 10, 1985

Catchers who contribute offensively are few and far between (just ask Jason Kendall or Gerald Laird), but the Jays are stacked with them. Funnily enough, Jeroloman, still just 22, actually resembles Jason Kendall. He doesn’t hit for much power (28 XBH in 431 minor league ABs) but he’s extremely patient, drawing 85 walks in 375 plate appearances. That projects to about 125 times over the course of a 550 PA season, enough to make Jeroloman very appealing to the Jays. His defense—which Baseball America ranks as best in the Toronto system—would represent a huge upgrade over the Jays’ current catchers. He’s topped out in high A ball so far, but could be in the bigs by 2009 if he finds the fast track.

1. Travis Snider, OF, Born: Feb. 2, 1988

The lone true bright spot in the Jays’ system is as good as it gets. He is consistently ranked as a top 10 prospect for good reason. He followed up his 325/412/567 2006 campaign with a 313 /377/525 last year as a 19-year-old. Patient enough to earn a walk rate of 10 percent, Snider hit 58 XBH in the pitcher-friendly Mid-West League before lighting it up in the AFL. He’s built like a tank and could end up being the best hitter the Jays have had since Delgado.

Don’t Forget About:

Curtis Thigpen, Adam Lind, and Jesse Litsch. These three made it to the show in 2007 for their first extended taste of the bigs (or they’d be on this list). They saw limited playing time, but the Jays will rely on them this year.

Minnesota Twins: Carlos Gomez, Power Hitter?

Ben NS — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 11:10:33 -0500

There have always been questions about Carlos Gomez’s power potential, but he’s got a good chance of playing every day for the Twins this year—and it’s time to determine just how much power we can expect from Gomez.

Gomez is 6’4”, young, and athletic. It’s easy to assume that he’ll hit for at least some power in the major leagues.

His minor league numbers aren’t particularly impressive (other than the high stolen base totals). Gomez hit four homers last year including two with the Mets and his career high is eight.

As for extra-base power, Gomez had 39 extra-base hits in 2006 for a career high .423 slugging percentage; his career minor league slugging average is just under .400.

Basically, these minor league numbers suggest that his power’s going to be a lot more similar to Jason Tyner’s than Justin Morneau’s.

However, there’s a precedent for players who develop power at the major league level.

Derek Jeter, for example, never hit more than five homers in any minor league season and his minor league high in extra base hits was 43.

Jeter’s slugging average blossomed from .418 to .462 in the majors and he’s hit as many as 24 homers with the New York Yankees.

While there’s no reason that Gomez couldn’t have a Jeter-esque power surge with the Twins, such improvement is the exception, not the rule.

Since Gomez—even if he does develop power—isn’t projected to hit more than 20-25 homers, I looked up the minor league numbers of every player to hit between 20 and 25 homers at the MLB level in 2007.

I excluded players who hit that many homers in under 400 at-bats and excluded players in their decline phase who, historically, have been stronger power hitters (No one thinks of Manny Ramirez and Sammy Sosa when thinking of 20-25 homer guys).

As you can see below, virtually without exception, players with 20-25 homers last year had far stronger minor league power numbers than Gomez. (I've only included the 24 HR hitters, because of space restrictions, but I'm happy to e-mail the full chart out.)

On average, their minor league SLG was .472 to Gomez’s .399. Their best single season SLG was, on average, .527 to Gomez’s 423. On average their highest homer total was 21 to Gomez’s eight and their highest doubles total was 34 to Gomez’s 24.

That so many of these players—now 20-25 homerun hitters—had more minor league power than Gomez means that he has a miniscule chance of developing into a power threat.

However, Gomez does not necessarily need a power surge to be valuable to Minnesota.

Whether Gomez ultimately resembles Jose Reyes, Scott Podsednik or even Julio Lugo, he can still provide value to his team without being a 5-tool player. Just as long as the Twins know they’re not getting the second coming of Carlos Beltran.

Player	2007	Notes	Minor	Minor	Minor	Minor
	HR		League	League	League	League
			SLG	High SLG	High HR	High 2B
Carlos Gomez			399	423	8	24
Alexis Rios	24		401	521	11	32
Grady Sizemore	24		411	480	13	26
Corey Hart	24		499	536	24	40
Travis Hafner	24		513	559	28	34
Ryan Zimmerman*	24		564	564	11	22
Troy Tulowitzki	24		470	473	13	34
B.J. Upton	24		457	490	18	36
Carlos Gomez			399	423	8	24
AVERAGE			472	527	21	34

As mentioned, this chart is incomplete. The averages, however, include all players who hit between 20-25 HR in 2007.

Why the Johan Santana Deal Works for the Twins

Ben NS — Tue, 29 Jan 2008 16:54:37 -0500

There’s no question about it. The Twins could have traded for better prospects than they did.

Jacoby Ellsbusy, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Jed Lowrie were mentioned as potential trade bait for Bill Smith and the Twins, but they ended up with a less impressive collection of talent.

However, it is still talent and we can’t conclude that this is a bad deal just because the Twins could have made better ones.

Minnesota was better off selling Santana at a discount than holding onto him. (Though how did he end up discounted in a free agent class headed by Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva?)

Even though it seems that the Mets gave up more impressive talent in their trade for Ryan Church, the prospects they dealt Minnesota are solid. Carlos Gomez is just another Scott Podsednik (look for 100 Ks and half as many steals once he hits the bigs), but the pitching talent is there.

Philip Humber, in spite of his disappointing seven inning call-up last year, is a seasoned prospect ready for big league action. His track record suggests that he will be a number three starter.

Kevin Mulvey’s numbers are also very strong, but he’s only pitched six innings above AA, so he needs some time at Rochester.

As for Deolis Guerra, he cut an alarming walk rate by almost 2/9IP last year and, though only 18 years old, looks promising.

In spite of the fact that the Twins gave up baseball’s best pitcher for prospects that no one is going to confuse for Jay Bruce or Evan Longoria, their franchise is better off for it.

Before we go any further, let’s think about this: How many games were the Twins going to win in 2008 with Johan? They won 79 last year when they still had Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva.

So let’s say that, with Liriano’s return, we could have expected 76 wins. It’s not worth keeping Santana on a team that’s not going to contend if he’s going to walk at the end of the year as a free agent.

So instead, the Twins acted and picked up a speedy outfielder (though Gomez is not a difference-maker), a MLB-ready pitcher (Humber), another pitcher who’s a year away from the bigs (Mulvey), and a pitcher who, at 18, is really an unknown (Guerra).

These players will be ready to contribute soon—and for longer than the single season that Santana would have given them. This deal strengthens the Twins’ system, even if it’s nauseating to think that they could have had Lowrie and Ellsbury.

But don’t count out the Twins’ scouting. The blockbuster they made after the 2003 season certainly turned up some nice young players.

Does Clutch Hitting Exist?

Ben NS — Tue, 29 Jan 2008 08:40:11 -0500

Some hits are more clutch than others. However, do some hitters have a clutch ability that shows up year after year?

In his 1984 Baseball Abstract, Bill James asks, “How is it that a player who possesses the reflexes and the batting stroke and the knowledge and the experience to be a .260 hitter in other circumstances magically becomes a .300 hitter when the game is on the line? How does that happen? What is the process? What are the effects? Until we can answer those questions, I see little point in talking about clutch ability.”

I can’t answer his question, because I’m not a clutch hitter.

However, when you look at a player who is known for his lack of clutch ability, it becomes apparent that players react differently according to pressure, even if we don’t know why.

Rick Ankiel was 11-7 with a 3.50 ERA and 190 Ks in 175 innings in 2000. That’s a very good season by any standard. In the postseason that year, he went 1-1 with an ERA just shy of 16, walking 11 of the 28 batters he faced in four innings.

These numbers aren’t skewed because of sample size; they’re like this because Rick Ankiel was the opposite of a clutch pitcher.

On the other hand, Tiger Woods has come through in meaningful situations. It’s well-known that he’s never lost a tournament in which he’s led by at least one shot going into the final round.

How is that not clutch?

When we look at these extreme examples, it seems obvious not only that there are clutch moments, but that some athletes repeatedly come through, or fail to, in those situations.

Since there are only so many "game sevens" out there, we can’t really draw conclusions about who is and isn’t clutch. Regardless of our ability to measure them, though, clutch hitters do exist.

The Class of 2009: Who Will Join Rickey?

Ben NS — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 15:24:26 -0500

Now that the 2008 ballots have been tallied and we know who is and isn’t going to be inducted, it’s time to look forward to the class of 2009.

For this look ahead, I’ve divided the candidates into categories:

The Obvious Candidate

How could someone not vote for Rickey Henderson? The all-time leader in runs scored is second all-time in walks, and has reached the 3000-hit plateau. When you think about those numbers, it seems like he barely needs the 1406 stolen bases and 12 stolen base crowns for induction.

I’m just excited to hear what he says in his speech this time.

The Better-Late-Than-Never Candidate

Jim Rice should finally be inducted to the Hall in 2009, his last chance on the ballot. It’s surprising that his dominance from the mid-70s to mid-80s hasn’t already earned him a spot in Cooperstown.

From ’75-’86 he led the majors in RBI, was 3rd in HR, 2^nd in SLG and 4^th in OPS behind only Mike Schmidt, George Brett and Eddie Murray.

They're all in Cooperstown.

The Better Luck Next Year Candidate

Bert Blyleven had a great major league career. How many pitchers log as many quality innings as Blyleven did? He wasn’t simply an innings-eater though; Blyleven struck out 3700 batters and won 287 games. 2009 won’t be his year (it’s too hard to make a 13 percent jump on the ballot) but he’ll get close enough to guarantee 2010 induction.

The Sure to Earn a Sympathy Vote Candidate

Mike Bordick was a solid player. That’s about the nicest thing you can say about his on-field performance, no matter how much of a clubhouse guy and leader he was around the league.

Still, writers have voted for Jay Buhner and Todd Stottlemyre before, so it’ll happen.

Someone will throw him a vote as a sign of respect to Bordick and a sign of disrespect to the integrity of the voting procedure.

Aaron Rowand is Delusional: San Francisco Giants Pickup Paints a Rosy Picture

Ben NS — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 06:54:13 -0500

MLB.com reports that, after arriving at AT&T park, Aaron Rowand said: "Look at those retired numbers."

When he takes the field next to Bengie Molina, Randy Winn, Dave Roberts, and Omar Vizquel he'll probably think "Look at these retired players," before realizing that they are, unfortunately for Giants fans, his teammates.

I can't believe that Rowand has deluded himself into thinking that a team that was 15th in the NL in runs scored (with only 683) can actually become a team that "can win the division."

Sure, replace the best hitter of the last half-century with a player who's had two better than average seasons and call this team a contender.

Not even Brain Sabean and his executives are suggesting that the "team is going to be very competitive this year." They're certainly not going to "guarantee it" like Rowand—unless, by competitive, they mean that the Giants will win more games than the 49ers.

The 5 Most Puzzling Things About the 2008 Baseball Hall of Fame Selections

Ben NS — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 08:22:13 -0500

Some stray thoughts from an otherwise unremarkable year for MLB's highest honor...

5. Someone voted for Todd Stottlemyre.

Mel's son never received a Cy Young Award vote or made an All-Star team and really only had 6 decent major league seasons. I’m not going to say that you have to win Cy Young awards or start every All-Star Game to be inducted, but nothing?

If we open up the doors for Todd and his bloody chin, we’ll have to start getting the plaques ready for Miguel Batista and Steve Trachsel too.

4. Goose Gossage appeared on 86% of ballots one year after appearing on only 71% of them.

The “Over-the-top Surge” has been well-documented, but 15% is a lot. I guess it just shows the extent to which voters vote according to the previous year’s ballot rather than the players' accomplishments on the field.

3. Goose Gossage was selected as a Hall of Famer.

Maybe we were destined to be disappointed after seeing Ripken and Gwynn inducted last year, but Gossage did not dominate enough to be a Hall of Famer.

Jayson Stark (a writer whose work I admire and respect) thinks that Gossage belongs in the same discussion as Mariano Rivera. Let’s stop there for a second and look past the stats Stark is throwing at us. He makes a mistake by only comparing the seasons the two men have spent as closers. I mean Gossage was a starting pitcher before and after he closed games, so we can’t rule that out of our discussion. We can’t ignore someone’s weak seasons any more than we can ignore their prime.

So comparing career numbers, here’s what we get: Rivera leads Gossage in hits allowed per inning, strikeouts per inning, walks per inning and homers allowed per inning. Stark claims that Gossage’s ERA as a closer is better (though Rivera’s overall mark is far better) but Goose played in a pitcher-friendly era. Goose’s era was 26% better than his peers, but Rivera’s era is 94% better than his.

And we can’t forget about the postseason either—Gossage’s solid playoff numbers are nothing compared to Mo’s 34 saves and 0.77 era. Not that Gossage wasn’t good, he just wasn’t Rivera.

2. Tim Raines was only named on 24.3% of ballots.

I think we all knew he wouldn’t make it in this year (though why not remains a mystery) but this means that 75.7% of writers were able to look past Raines’ nearly 4,000 times on base, his 808 steals, and his .385 OBP. I just don’t get it.

1. Bert Blyleven actually caught a break.

The perennial victim of the voters finally made his way up the ballot, from 48% last year to 62% this time around. Given the way players jump up in the voting as they get closer, Blyleven should be rightfully enshrined in Cooperstown by 2010 at the latest.