Bleacher Report - Articles by Josh Galligan

Fantasy Football 2009's Comatose Sleepers

Josh Galligan — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 04:11:14 -0400

The subject of fantasy “sleepers”, “super sleepers”, and “comatose sleepers” is often a touchy one. For the majority of fantasy players, who largely consider themselves in-the-know, to admit that they aren’t aware of any player – no matter how obscure they may be – can often be seen as a cardinal offense. Add to this that the actual definition of “sleeper” and “super sleeper” varies greatly from person to person and league to league and you’ve got yourself a natural recipe for drama and vehement insults. Good times! Which players are actually classified as sleepers can vary greatly from person to person. For some people, well-known players who’re a lock to have fantastic seasons such as Tony Gonzalez are considered a sleeper. These same people likely play in 6-8 team leagues and don’t watch much football outside of their localized favorite team. They’ve likely been given everything they wanted throughout their life and like to keep things as simple and non-complex as possible – no matter how stupid it may sometimes make them seem. For still others, possible practice-squad bound players such as Lex Hilliard and Julian Edelman are considered a sleeper. These people usually play in 12-14 team leagues and watch every single game humanly possible via NFL Sunday Ticket or bootlegged game Internet streams. They usually like to study all sides of every decision before pulling the trigger and sometimes probably enjoy making lists about the most inane, non-important topics. Really, who’s to say who’s correct and who’s not here? Since everyone’s definition differs, even the people who consider Tony Gonzalez a sleeper and should by all accounts be beaten upside the head with a baseball bat aren’t necessarily “wrong”. Dumb? Yes. Out of touch with reality? Most definitely! But wrong? That’s also a probably, but from the public relations side of things, no! Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, even if it makes other people want to bottle them upside the back of the head whenever they say things. But since it would largely take a miracle for Tony Gonzalez to be available past the sixth round – even in a small eight-team league – it really does no one any good going into their own drafts thinking the guy will have a monster season. There are not many people who are asleep on Tony Gonzalez this year and if they are, it’s probably because they are, legit, actually asleep or something. Even the people who don’t think he’ll have a monster season will still manage to take high very early. In the interests of actually helping some people out in their drafts (or even with waiver/free agent claims if you’ve already had your draft), I’ve decided to put together a list of players who I consider to be “comatose sleepers”. That is, players who fly under the radar even during conversations about possible sleepers and who also have a realistic shot at breaking out in some way, shape or form this season. Sit back, buckle up and feel free to curse me for not writing this several weeks earlier. I had to pay the bills, put food on the table and all of that other uninteresting, grueling stuff we need to do in the fantasy game known as life. If you disagree with my selections in any way though, please don’t hesitate to leave a comment that suggests that I have never won a fantasy league title and have absolutely no idea what I’m talking about. Those are always fun! Anyways, the most important thing to remember for this whole thing is to not expect the players listed here to become the next big thing at their respective positions. All of the players listed in this write-up should be taken with a late-round flier if you agree with my analysis defending why they’re worth more than a second look. They could remain on your bench for the entire year while they could just as easily become the glue that cements the mid-season trade offer that pushes you into title contention. The best way to delve into the following list of players is to do so with an optimistic, upside-minded approach. Despite my analysis for each, you could just as easily argue why all of them shouldn’t be taken whatsoever. The most important thing though, is that you recognize what role each of these players will play – if any – on your (or someone else’s) fantasy team. Leagues aren’t won by correctly choosing the right player to take with your #3 overall pick. Leagues ARE often won with wise, well-informed late round drafting that provides depth and quality backups to be used should injuries or poor seasons arise throughout the season. This shit’s deep, I know! All average draft position (ADP) information is for a 12-team league list only. With all of that all finally out of the way though, let’s get this shizzle started shall we?! Players have been listed in order by last name with help from our good friend the alphabet. Without further ado:

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The Freudian Fumble Quiz: What Kind of Fantasy Football Personality Do You Have?

Josh Galligan — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 21:15:43 -0400

There are many different types of strategies that people choose to implement during their fantasy football season, and more often than not, it’s a direct reflection of their personality. Some people choose to start preparing for the next fantasy football season the day after the Super Bowl, while others rely on their own drunken intuition throughout the entire season. While it would be impossible to really nail down every single type of personality out there when it comes to fantasy football, I’ve done my best to go ahead and make a quiz that should give us all a pretty solid representation of who we really are. Although I’ve tried very hard to make this sound as serious as possible, you'll soon see that this isn’t really meant to be taken as such. So sit back, relax, and without further ado:

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2009 NFL Preview and Predictions, Pt. 1: The NFC

Josh Galligan — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 10:53:30 -0400

While this was actually planned as a one-part AFC & NFC preview, this NFC breakdown eventually became so big to make it an effective doorstop when printed out. In the interests of being such a nice guy, I split the entire NFL preview into THREE separate parts since it was the only real logical thing left to do. Nah, I'm just kidding. It's only two parts. And yes, I'm aware that was a horrible joke. Without further ado!

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Fanatical Fantasy Analysis: 2009 Running Back Strength of Schedule

Josh Galligan — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 03:02:09 -0400

Note: This article was written on the eve of the 2009 NFL Draft. You would have seen it in the opening sentence anyway, but I thought it best to get it out of the way RIGHT away instead of...right away. Okay, yeah, this was a waste of time. Enjoy!

On the eve of the NFL Draft (see?), despite the fact that many of the selections and free agent signings could certainly shake up what the defensive rushing rankings were at the end of the 2009, I’ve decided to take a look (albeit an early one) at each teams' schedules for this upcoming year as they relate to the rushing game.

Again, this is purely for entertainment purposes only, as this will most certainly need to be edited as we get closer to the season and begin to factor in what each team has decided to do repair or further upgrade their rushing defense with free agency and the draft.

Basically, based on the end-of-season defensive rushing stats of 2008, I placed each team’s defensive rushing unit into one of five groups and then gave each of those groups a number ranking relative to the others.

I then tallied up each team’s schedule using these numbers and the help of a spreadsheet and...voila! Each team’s rushing schedule has been placed into one of five groups, with each getting progressively more difficult.

Since I hold all of your intelligence in such high regard, I will not attempt to explain any further. If you’re already confused though, you should probably just leave now and save yourself the trouble.

Also, since each team has apparently decided to adapt a 14-headed-RB system over the course of the last few seasons, this type of information is affecting more potential fantasy players than ever. So there's that.

But now that I’ve attempted to hard sell you enough to the brink of outward rebellion, let’s just go ahead and get this shindig started as I am not much of a fan of rioting...

As always, feel free to leave any feedback, including vehement disagreements in the comments and most importantly, enjoy!

Creampuff schedule:

BAL, JAC, NYJ, WAS

Analysis: With the early lead for easiest opponents to rush against schedule (ORAS...clever, I know!), it’s hard not to come to one SINGLE conclusion about this group IF you look at it and think for long enough. Still don’t have anything? We'll wait a bit longer...

Still nothing? Well...okay, fine! Allow me to spell it out for your unimaginative psyche:

Willis McGahee: 28 years old (will turn 29 in October)

Thomas Jones: 30 years old (will turn 31 in August)

Clinton Portis: 27 years old (will turn 28 on Sept. 1)

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that once running backs edge closer to the magical age of 30 that can no longer be effective. Well, maybe I am but that's only because there is statistical proof in the matter, but regardless, I'm also stating that each of these team’s schedules (by all accounts) are quite light on the rushing defense juggernauts side of things.

Is this a good thing? Of course! How could it not be? (On a side note though, doesn’t discovering that Willis McGahee is almost THIRTY years old make you feel old? It does for me and I’m only 22!)

Maurice Jones-Drew owners or fans should also be doubly happy with this information. Not only is Fred Taylor gone, making MJD the feature back of the team’s offensive attack, but he’s also got a pretty easy run at things this year, unless there are some major changes on the rest of the league’s rushing defense front. Which there definitely could be...so put all the party hats and kazoos away, please!

Easy schedule:

SF, MIN, PIT, ARI, SD, SEA, CHI, NO

Analysis: The scary-good prospects of this bunch of teams with relatively easy opponents to rush against schedule (ORDS) are obviously Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson. As if their owners needed any other excuses to brag or expect them to come close to record-breaking seasons this year as it is…

Frank Gore is also another promising prospect now that we’ve seen that A) Mike Martz isn’t afraid to use him because he is built and runs like a brick shithouse and B) Even if he was, Mike Singletary would probably throw him out the third-floor facility film room window.

On a quick side note, I’d just like to say that Mike Singletary has immediately jumped to the top of my favorite coaches list for the mere fact that he could actually do these types of things and we wouldn’t really be surprised or mad. He's Mike Singletary, for goodness' sake!

Also, if Willie Parker can stay healthy, then an easy schedule to rush against could certainly only mean good things, as well as for Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush.

Although the latter two rely so much on their receiving skills as well that we’d probably be getting ahead ourselves with that. So let’s just continue on!

Average schedule:

DEN, BUF, HOU, DAL, TEN, KC, CIN, PHI

Analysis: Since an average schedule against anything doesn’t really tell us anything, the only thing that stands out for me here would be the sparkplug that is Chris Johnson and also the game planning nightmare that is Brian Westbrook.

Oh, and we can throw in some optimistic expectations for big things from Steve Slaton again this season, in particular because I have him on my keeper squad.

And maybe if Larry Johnson were to stop pouting about everything, he could get something done against some sub-par opposing units too, but that’s just too up in the air to call correctly.

Difficult schedule:

TB, NE, OAK, CLE, STL, MIA, NYG, IND

Analysis: Let’s see… you can’t be too worried about Joseph Addai and the Colts tough ORDS since doing so is actually impossible as long as Peyton Manning’s behind center.

The same for the Giants as well, if only because Brandon Jacobs is an absolute house who could probably run through a steel wall if a defense tried to stop him with one.

The Dolphins have had enough success with the Wildcat to be wily and tricky no matter how tough the opponent is and the Patriots currently have approximately nine RB’s now on their roster that they could use in times of trouble.

Besides that, save for Stephen Jackson and his potential to bust things up depending on the situation of the passing game, there really isn’t that much else that stands out. In a positive way, that is.

All-Madden-esque schedule:

GB, CAR, DET, ATL

Analysis: Things would have been extra interesting on either polar opposite end of the ORDS no matter who found themselves there, but this particular group has two extra special one’s to talk about.

For one, the most surprising and standout success stories of 2008 was Michael Turner (along with the entire Falcons franchise in general actually) and his season that finally burst him from beneath LaDanian Tomlinson’s shadow.

Thankfully for the Falcons though, especially with their recent acquisition of TE Tony Gonzalez, they have enough offensive weapons to offset any real problems they’d have on the rushing side of things.

On the other hand, you have Carolina and their equally surprising story of their impressive duo of running backs, Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

Although Williams got out to an early lead and finished the season with the better season of the two, Stewart certainly proved that he had a knack for the end-zone and was equally as viable to use in most situations as Williams was.

Because of this, the fact that they have one of the toughest ORDS’s in the season next year isn’t of TOO much worry (mainly because they can continuously pound away at any units that are attempting to be stubborn) but is still of some worry nonetheless.

We should really discover what Packers back Ryan Grant is made of with such a tough schedule as well. Lastly, for Detroit…well, since my mother always taught me that if I didn’t have anything nice to say, then not to say it at all, I’ll just end the article with the hop and suggestion that… oh screw it!

The Lions have much more pressing matters to work on in tomorrow’s Draft than their rushing game, necessarily. So let’s hope they stay away from the skill players (save for running back) and shore up their offensive and defensive lines.

Enjoy the Draft!

Note: The Draft is obviously over so I hope that you ENJOYED the Draft. And this article. And my pre-and post note commentary!

The Real Sporting World Episode Three: "Drunken Interviews" (Satire)

Josh Galligan — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 02:15:10 -0400

Note: This is a fictional, make-believe show containing the likenesses of some our very favorite and colorful sports stars. They have been locked in a house to live with one another for 1 month under the watchful eye of host and former Steelers mascot Steely McBeam.

Starring: Manny Ramirez, Kobe Bryant, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, L.T., Mark "The Mad Dog" Madsen, and host Steely McBeam.

Clips are shown of the first two episodes. The camera then cuts to the living room where everyone except for host Steely McBeam is present.

Manny: “Where is McBean?” Manny looks around, troubled by the absence of his new best friend.

Kobe: “They should have had me as the host of this show.” Kobe is filing his nails.

Madsen: “Why, so you could yell at everyone when they did something you didn’t like?”

Kobe: “Exactly.” There is no sarcasm in his voice at all.

Madsen: “Wait, are you serious?”

Kobe: “Yup.” He nods.

A-Rod: “Does anyone want to play hide and go seek?”

Everyone looks at A-Rod and a response to his question would likely have came but a loud bang is heard, similar to as if a mascot just took a digger down the stairs. No one appears to be too concerned.

Kobe: “I can’t believe I’m not on this box of Wheaties..”

Clemens: “I can.”

Kobe: “What’s that supposed to mean?”

Clemens: “For one, you’re a dick. Two, you might like to think it, but you're no Michael Jordan.”

Brady: “Aren’t you supposed to be shooting up steroids or something right now?”

He looks around sarcastically for a clock.

Clemens: “I DON’T TAKE STEROIDS!” He stands up, turning the familiar purple.

Peyton: “Just in case you haven’t noticed, no one believes you. No one at all.”

Madsen: “I believe you Rocket!” (He offers a high-five. It is ignored.)

Clemens: “DO NOT CALL ME ROCKET!!” He storms off, bumping into a woozy, disheveled Steely McBeam.

McBeam: “Good morning everyone, getting along as usual I see.”

A-Rod: “It’s one o’clock in the afternoon..”

Peyton: “Actually, it is one o eight.”

McBeam: “Oh, uh.. Sorry.”

Kobe: “You’re a pretty horrible host.”

McBeam: “Well, I’ll make it up to you all. I have details of what we’ll be doing today!”

Manny: “Can we play soccer?”

A-Rod: “Hide and go seek?”

LaDainian: “Tag?”

McBeam: “No. Seriously, some of you guys might want to start thinking before you speak. Anyway, to prevent you all rioting we figured we’d do something fun.”

Madsen: “Did you build an indoor basketball court?”

McBeam: “No.”

Brady: “Are there strippers downstairs?”

McBeam: “Unfortunately, no. We’re going to all get drunk and play a getting to know you game.”

Madsen: “Oh yeah! Gonna get crunk! WOO!” He goes to high-five Steely who pats him on the shoulder instead.

McBeam: “Think about what you're going to be telling your partner, get something to eat then meet me downstairs in a couple of hours.”

The camera cuts to black and then cuts back in, presumably a few hours later in a new bar type room. There is an assortment of different beers and liquors on the bar. Mad Dog has sneaked a bottle of whiskey and is sipping from it, attempting to be sneaky but failing horribly.

McBeam: “Okay, we’ll be playing drunken getting to know you. You won’t have your normal roommates as partners. I think it’s safe to say you know enough about them quite well by now.” Madsen tries to nod at Clemens who is doing everything in his power to stare straight ahead.

McBeam: “The partners are: Alex and Manny, Tom and Kobe, Peyton and Mark, and Roger and LaDainian. Before we break off, what do you all want to drink?”

Manny: “Chocolate milk!”

Peyton: “Gin and tonic on the rocks.”

Kobe: “Grey goose and cranberry.”

LaDainian: “Some of that expensive looking wine right there..”

Clemens: “Just gimme a beer.”

Brady: “A mimosa.”

A-Rod: “A Seagram’s with ice. The raspberry kind.”

Madsen: “Three shots of Tanguaray 151!” He starts pumping his fist, bobbing his head back and forth.

McBeam: “Okay, get your drinks, get in your pairs and start asking the questions provided. And everyone please keep an eye on Mad Dog, we’ll probably have to shut him off in about twenty minutes.”

The alcohol, not surprisingly lightens the mood a great deal. Except for Clemens of course. He is complaining about something to LaDainian who appears to be listening intently. After about an hour, McBeam moves to the front of the room for his next announcement.

McBeam: “Okay, Mad Dog is now officially cut off.”

Madsen is sitting on the couch, both his arms crossed, pouting.

McBeam: “First up, Alex and Manny!” He starts clapping, then goes back over to his spot and resumes drinking what appears to be Jim Beam.

A-Rod: “Well, my partner was Manny Ramirez. He plays baseball for the Boston Red Sox. His favorite food is peanuts.”

Manny begins rubbing his stomach, rolling his eyes back. He appears to expressing his love for peanuts.

A-Rod: “His pet peeve is people who don’t like the number twenty four. And the one thing he would most like you to know about him is that if he could be any animal, then he would be a squirrel.”

Manny shrugs his shoulders.

Manny: “They have the life!” He gets his piece of paper and turns to point at Alex.

Manny: “Thees is my new fren, Alex. He play for the Yankees.” Manny shakes his head. “His favorite food is.. Lettuss?” He looks at A-Rod who nods back.

Manny: “Uhh.. His pet peeve is all who make fun a him. And the one thing he want you to know about him is that he is NOT gay!” Manny begins giggling.

A-Rod: “Uh, I didn’t say that, but it is true..” He nods, looking at everyone very seriously. The whole thing was obviously planned.

McBeam: “Okay, um, that was interesting. Next up.. Kobe and Tom.”

Kobe and Tom strut up to the front, arguing over who will go first.

Kobe: “My partner was Tom Brady. He plays QB for the Patriots. His favorite food is..” Kobe looks over at Tom. “I’m not saying that.”

Brady: “Aw! Come on! You all know what it is!” He points at everyone, nodding.

Kobe: “Uh, yeah. His pet peeve is anyone who likes Peyton Manning and the one thing he wants you to know about him is that he’s had more women in his life than you’ve had all time in your imagination.”

Madsen nods.

Madsen: “Can’t argue with that! Just kidding Peyton, you the man!” He tries to reach for Peyton’s glass of gin but Peyton stands and brushes him off.

Peyton: “Wow, that was mature Tom.”

Brady: “Hell yeah it was! I’ma P! I! M! P!” He chugs from his mimosa.

Brady: “Okay, my partner was Kobe Bryant. He plays basketball for the Lakers and is most known for his comparisons to Michael Jordan.”

Kobe is nodding at Tom, pleased that he’s actually saying all this. Madsen raises his hand.

Brady: “His favorite food is Wheaties and his pet peeve is when anyone sucks at anything and he is good at it. Which is everything. That annoys him. Uh, what Mark?”

Madsen stands up.

Madsen: “I think I speak for everyone when I say that no one has ever compared Kobe to Michael Jordan. Or ever will. Thank you.”

Kobe: “Bullshit! I hear it everyday! In the paper, on the internet..”

Madsen: “What on kobebryantisthebest.com?” Mad Dog looks around, laughing incredibly hard. Must have been some good whiskey.

Brady: “The one thing that he would like you to know about him is that he’s liked gambling and Hanes underwear his entire life and doesn’t like it just because Michael Jordan does.” Everyone starts laughing.

Madsen: “Haha! Good one Kobes!”

Kobe: “Mark, shut up! You suck at basketball!”

Madsen’s jaw drops.

Madsen: “WHAT!? One on one, right now! LET’S GO!” Peyton sits Madsen down and hands him his gin so he’ll shut up. Kobe is laughing.

McBeam: “Next up are Peyton and Mark.” Were those words slurred by our mascot?

Madsen pounds the rest of the gin and runs up to the front of the room. Peyton leisurely strolls up behind him. Madsen swings his entire body and then turns sideways, pointing with both hands at Peyton.

Madsen: “GIVE IT UP FOR MY BOY PAY-TOOOOOOOOOONE!”

No one claps.

Peyton: “I told you no introduction was needed.”

Madsen: “Peyton the Man is on the Colts and is a QB. Dare I say he’s better than Tom?”

Brady: “No.”

Madsen: “Alrighty then, alrighty! Let's see... his favorite food is.. Football?”

Madsen looks down at his list.

Madsen: “His favorite food is football because he eats it for breakfast and dinner? Uh, did I get that right Peyton?”

Peyton: “No, no you didn’t.”

Madsen: “Aw, dude. I’m sorry. I didn’t mean that, man. I messed it all up, I’m sorry.” He goes to try and hug Peyton who dodges.

Peyton: “It’s fine, keep going.”

Madsen stumbles.

Madsen: “I’m sorry man, I’m so sorry!” He stops, lifting his fist up to his mouth. He tries to run to the bathroom but ends up hurling all over Clemens, who sits there in shock for a moment or two. “Dude! Rocket! I’m so sorry! I must have ate too many Yodels, dude. I’m so sorry!”

Clemens promptly gets up, grabs some more beer and storms upstairs.

A-Rod: “Wow, he handled that well..”

McBeam stumbles over to the front of the room.

McBeam: “Okay, LaDainian -- you need to finish yours and Roger’s. You have to do it, you just have to. Sorry.” He hiccups and sways back over to his chill spot.

LaDainian shrugs and moves to the front of the room.

LaDainian: “It’s okay, Roger didn’t answer any of my questions anyway. He just kept telling me Vizio’s sucked and sometimes he thought I might be retarded. He didn’t mean it though, guy had like three beers, I think? He was crazy. But about me, shucks, where do I start? I learned the value of hard work and being classy early on. I was barely walking and already I was running around the yard, little football helmet on, working out and being polite! I was always trying to get better and I was polite to EVERYONE in my town. They all knew me as polite, classy LaDainian. I used to get SO MANY free cookies!”

McBeam: “Okay L.T., speed it up!”

A-Rod: “LaDainian, did you know this show is sponsored by Sony?”

Peyton: “Nice, Alex, real nice.”

LaDainian: “What do you mean? Why would they pick Sony over Vizio?” He turns to McBeam. “Is this true?”

McBeam shakes his head.

McBeam: “No, we’re sponsored by Burger King, actually.”

L.T. nods, looking relieved.

LaDainian: “Okay, I like them. That king is so classy!”

Brady: “Are you seriously from like a comic book universe where they injected you with Vizio-classy hybrid juice? Is that why you always talk about that stuff? I would seriously believe you if you said that was true..”

LaDainian: “Oh Tom, stop playin!”

McBeam hiccups again and stumbles, falling over. Everyone stares at him for a minute or two before they realize he’s not getting up.

A-Rod: “Did he pass out? Where does he sleep?”

Peyton: “I think it’s somewhere down here. Let’s try down the hall.”

McBeam is carried down the hall to a door with a Steelers sticker on it. They bring him inside and the camera shows Steelers posters and memorabilia everywhere. Also, there’s tons and tons of bottles of Jim Beam.

Kobe: “Still living in the past..”

Brady: “Wow. Steely sure does like Jim McBeam. Haha!” Tom looks around. “Not funny? Okay..”

A-Rod: “Maybe that’s why he woke up at one o clock today. Do you think he’s sad he got let go by the Steelers?”

They all look down at Steely who’s passed out on a makeshift bed.

Madsen: “Well no sense in worrying about it now. Let’s take this booze upstairs and PAR-TAY!” He runs around, picking up as many bottles as he can. The rest follow suit, leaving McBeam to sober up by himself in his basement abode.

The camera cuts to black and same cheesy reality show music plays. The credits inform everyone that the show is indeed sponsored by Sony.

Next week on the Real Sporting World: How will McBeam respond the next morning? What story will he tell? When exactly will Roger Clemens snap and actually hit Mark Madsen? And when will the Mad Dog finally get some returns on his high fives? Stay tuned next week for these answers and more on.. The Real Sporting World!

Seventh Heaven: The Top Seven Fantasy Rookie RBs for 2009

Josh Galligan — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 01:54:17 -0400

While the 2009 Draft didn't have a super-flashy, consensus No. 1 pick, the class as a whole does look to have a lot of depth and could potentially turn out to be very deep indeed.

In the interests of putting everything into perspective so that it can be better organized and put into useful form, I've gone and done the UNTHINKABLE and ranked the Top Seven rookie running backs of 2009 as I see them, followed by some honorable mentions dealing with some toss-ups and late round super-sleepers.

So go and get a drink, put on your slippers, do some push-ups—whatever it is that your crazy ### does to get ready to read some delicious fantasy football analysis. Please don't hesitate to print this bad-boy out and take it with you on your marathon outings into the bathroom either.

Nothing makes bathroom reading better than rookie running back rankings (in my opinion, at least).

Ready. Steady. GO!

7. Donald Brown (IND)

I like Brown a lot, but just can't shake the feeling that Joseph Addai isn't going anywhere anytime soon and as long as Peyton Manning is the QB, the Colts RB2 would be worth a serious look only in much deeper leagues.

For Addai owners though, it's obvious that Brown would be a viable and practically mandatory handcuff unless you want to be beating yourself with a toaster if Addai possibly goes down with an injury and Brown steps into the starter role and starts tearing it up. That's never fun. Oh no!

On the skill set front though, Donald Brown is an absolute beast of a workhorse. He had a ridiculous 367 carries last year en route to 2,083 yards and 18 touchdowns. While 2,083 yards is certainly impressive no matter what division it was accomplished in, I'm much more impressed and infatuated with those 367 carries.

Say what you want about his yardage totals and how they correlate to less-than-stellar opposing defenses, but no matter how poor the defenses you face are, if you run the rock 367 times than you my friend are what I like to call, "a house".

Bottom line: An extremely tempting handcuff for any and all Addai owners as well as a worthy "roll the dice" pick in deeper leagues. This kid has the potential to be an absolute train of a workhorse RB and is also one of the best off-the-field rookie prospects there is.

This kid has his #### together and you won't have to worry about him being suspended for a few games during the season for trying to stab a taxi cab driver or something.

2009 fantasy RB potential (out of four, "Wow I am excited!" faces):

6. James Davis (CLE)

Despite the fact that Eric Mangini has gone on record to state that he plans to use Jerome Harrison frequently in a spell roll for rumbling, bumbling starting RB Jamal Lewis, we should all take this with a grain of salt since this is, in fact, Eric Mangini we're talking about here.

Seriously though, while it remains to be seen if Browns rookie RB James Davis' skill set will be more worthwhile for the Browns to use to spell Lewis this year instead of Harrison, we can take a look at the formers career stats thus far and then go from there.

Jerome Harrison's career statistics (2006-08): 77 carries for 448 yards (5.8 average), 1 TD and 23 receptions for 182 yards and 1 TD

Not bad until you take into account that he's only ran the ball an average of 25 times per year and most of these carries came near the end of games when the defense had become weakened by a constant barrage of Jamal Lewis' He-Man runs.

So what you really have to do is decide whether or not you think Harrison is going to keep up this fantastic pace when the team starts to use him more in the rushing game. Personally, I don't think he will and would be best used on third-and-long, Wildcat, or special RB/WR-reverse type plays and situations.

Davis on the other hand has solid speed, is consistent and has stayed healthy for nearly his entire career. Although he split carries in 2008 with fellow Clemson RB C.J. Spiller, Davis still managed to rack up 751 yards rushing and cross the goal line a total of 11 times despite only 171 carries. He also tacked on 14 receptions for 123 yards as well.

In 2006 and 2007 Davis had much better years as the teams feature back and nearly left school early to declare for the NFL Draft, but instead decided to go back to school and finish up his degree.

In those two years combined, Davis amassed a total of 2,251 yards on the ground from 417 carries (5.3 average) and 27 touchdowns. So while many people have been less than impressed with Davis' 2008 campaign, it seems that the young rookie does a lot better when he's the one getting the majority of the carries.

With Jamal Lewis not getting any younger—especially from his style of running that, while punishing to opposing defenders, certainly can't be good for his own body either, it's really going to come down to whether James Davis can outshine Jerome Harrison to claim the future starting role.

You also have to wonder if they'll both perform well and we'll be seeing them transition into a fearsome, two-headed RBBC once Jamal Lewis hangs up his train cleats.

With Brady Quinn a definite possibility to become the Browns starting QB (it'd be a near certainty if anyone but Mangini was at the coaching helm), the opportunity for lots and lots of carries is definitely something that could become a reality.

Bottom line: No matter of how you think the Browns RB situation will unfold just make sure you keep your eye on James Davis.

2009 fantasy RB potential (out of four, "Wow I am excited!" faces): 1/2

5. LeSean McCoy (PHI)

The heir apparent to the Brian Westbrook era, LeSean McCoy might not see too much on-the-field action in 2009. Or then again, he very well could.

Let's focus on what we know.

Brian Westbrook is rare and special talent who, while getting up there in age, certainly has a ways to go before he's ready to be replaced for good. We also know that the entire Eagles offense runs through, around, and on top of the versatile star.

Add to this that Westbrook rarely leaves the field because he can run, catch and block equally well and what you're left with is a puzzled look on your face as you try and predict how much on-the-field playing time rookie RB LeSean McCoy will see.

Well, again, let's focus on what we KNOW.

We know that there's a definite possibility that McCoy could be the featured star of the Eagles own Wildcat formation, should they decide to run it very often this year. But with the success that the formation has had thus far in the league, it would probably be a safe bet to assume that this will end up becoming a reality.

We also know that the only real threat for the RB2 job in regards to McCoy is Lorenzo Booker who again, as we know, is no real threat at all (2.7 rushing average last year).

Taking a look at the past, last year's backup to Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter, was given 76 carries on the year. Buckhalter was also the backup in 2006 and 2007 as well and was actually given 83 and 62 carries in those years respectively.

Now, in an effort to steer clear of trying to forecast injuries too much, those three yearly carry totals give us a pretty solid look at how the Eagles dish out rushes to their RB2's.

It's not out of the question to think that McCoy will get 75 carries this year as well as at least 25 Wildcat plays (again, if they choose to use the formation) to put him at the century mark for touches. For a backup to a player like Westbrook that is on the field so much, that isn't bad. It isn't bad at all.

Bottom line: An even MORE mandatory handcuff for Westbrook owners, especially when you consider that McCoy is just as versatile and would be given just as much focus should Westbrook go down. But as we just mapped out, even as an RB2, McCoy is definitely worth a look if you like what you've seen from him.

2009 fantasy RB potential (out of four, "Wow I am excited!" faces):

4. Bernard Scott (CIN)

Rookie RB Bernard Scott has found himself on a Bengals squad in which he is surrounded by mediocre, patchwork running backs on the depth chart. This fact alone would make him a promising chance to see a lot of playing time and even become the starter, but luckily (for the Bengals), there's a whole lot more.

Scott was a BEAST in college, racking up more than 4,200 yards and finding the end zone 62 times in just TWO years at Abilene Christian University. It's been reported that the Bengals are VERY impressed with his quickness and speed when getting to the perimeter.

This kids athleticism is obviously already on the NFL level and he has a small level of competition for the starting job—so why isn't everyone ranting and raving over him?

Well, in typical Cincinnati Bengal fashion, Scott was drafted despite the fact that he's had some pretty hefty off-the-field issues, reportedly bring arrested five different times and playing for THREE other colleges before Abilene Christian. You know, cause it's not like the Bengals have had problems with their players off-the-field criminal activity before...

Seriously, not only will it be a travesty if this kids talent is never allowed to come to fruition because of his off-the-field troubles, it will be absolutely disgusting that the Bengals allowed it to happen again.

I sincerely hope their lax disciplinary rules in regards to this stuff doesn't contribute from robbing us of the opportunity to potentially see this kid blossom into a star.

Bottom line: He's a risk and a big one at that, but along with big-risk, comes big-reward. The choice is yours, young grasshopper!

2009 fantasy RB potential (out of four, "Wow I am excited!" faces): 1/2

3. Shonn Greene (NYJ)

If you haven't yet heard about Shonn Greene and how the Jets organization was literally giggling with glee when he fell into their lap on day two of the Draft, then you MIGHT want to go about finding a new crew of whom you can discuss football with, because Greene is as hot a topic as there is currently in regards to the rookie class.

Green promptly exploded onto the college football scene last year when he absolutely TORE it UP with 307 carries for 1,850 yards and 20 TD's. He had 8 receptions for 49 yards too but as you can see, that's really not worth mentioning because he's more of a runner than a receiver.

New Jets head coach Rex Ryan was very happy with the teams acquisition of Greene and the teams running back coach Anthony Lynn actually had Greene as his No. 1 RB prospect in the entire draft. That's almost certainly a lie but I'm sure he had him ranked pretty high up and was very surprised he was taken in day one of the Draft.

Rex Ryan is all about running the rock and playing a hard-nosed, smash mouth, conservative style of football that will most certainly be enhanced with the inevitability of either an inexperienced or rookie QB about to take the signal calling duties.

To sum it up, the Jets are going to run the football a lot and they are going to run the football successfully.

They have one of the best offensive lines in the game and although Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are on the RB depth chart as well, Jones will be 31 this season which is practically AARP worthy in "running back years" (like cats and dogs) and Washington is the team's resident spark plug, who is not played too often in order to maximize his effectiveness.

There is risk in banking too highly on Greene, however, since Jones could have another stellar year and Washington could dazzle with a few big plays out the get-go while Greene is still struggling to get up to NFL speed.

However, looking down the road, Jones is going to be gone soon and the Greene/Washington duo RBBC has a lot of potential and would also most certainly see Greene as the RB1 of the bunch. The Jets could very well play a card out of the Patriots and Giants books and run a three player RBBC.

If Greene can translate well enough, he should be given enough carries to at least be a spot-starter, or even full-starter should Jones go down. He'd also be a very nice handcuff for Jones as well, but I'm sure you already knew that, didn't you?

Bottom line: There's a reason that there's a ton of buzz around this kid. But don't be swept up in it too much, because while he has a lot of upside, he also has some road blocks that could stand in his way to truly fulfilling his potential (for THIS year at least).

2009 fantasy RB potential (out of four, "Wow I am excited!" faces): 1/2

2. Knowshon Moreno (DEN)

Say whaaaaaaat!?

I know, I know, but please bear with me. All will soon be revealed to you, just have some patience. Please and thank you.

To start off, here's a list of the current Denver running backs on the roster (in addition to Moreno of course):

Correll Buckhalter

LaMont Jordan

Darius Walker

Ryan Torain

Now even though Mike "I pioneered the RBBC and get incredibly rosy red cheeks in cold weather games" Shanahan is no longer the head coach, you still have to expect the team to use some kind of RBBC along with Moreno—especially when you consider that Buckhalter and Jordan were brought in this past offseason and Ryan Torain hasn't exactly proven to be a bust by any means at all.

On the Moreno front, he certainly has the talent to outclass all of the others and be the RB1 in the committee, but with so many running backs...I don't know. I'm just not as incredibly excited as some other people may be about him.

It's certainly not enough to warrant not taking a good, hard and serious look at him, but as you can see from this article, there's plenty of other rookie running backs available that will probably end up being just as good as him—if not better.

Bottom line: He's the best running back on a team with a sea of running backs that the team is probably going to try and utilize all of. The kid sure is talented, though, that's for sure.

2009 fantasy RB potential (out of four, "Wow I am excited!" faces):

1. Chris Wells (ARI)

You may disagree, but I think the whole Hightower bandwagon last year had a lot to do with Edgerrin James early season knack for being a mortal lock to have a 2.1 rushing average per game. Hightower would be given three chances in a row on the goal line and BAM! He's a end-zone nosed juggernaut powerhouse!

Color me unimpressed.

Chris Wells on the other hand (I refuse to use his nickname), is everything that people were making Hightower out to be last year AND then some. He's tough. He's edgy. He wanted to sacrifice long-term injury last year to play in some of Ohio State's big time games.

He's been injured here and there, but that can probably be explained away by his never-say-die nature and knack for taking it right into the teeth of the defensive time after time.

Not only is he a hard-nosed runner, but he has just enough breakaway speed to potentially be a game-breaking RB as well. Ken Whisenhunt is of the Pittsburgh, smash mouth football mold and I for one think that he likes to succeed on the first smash mouth attempt and not the third or sometimes fourth...(I'm looking at you Mr. Hightower)

Wells is surely going to share some of the playing time with Hightower but I just don't see it being split too evenly if Wells skill set transitions to the NFL like everyone thinks it will.

The situation in Arizona that he landed in was perhaps one of the best possible, with its lethal air attack, strong offensive line, and veteran QB who will tell him what needs to be done.

Bottom line: Apparently some things turn out NOT too good to be true after all!

2009 fantasy RB potential (out of four, "Wow I am excited!" faces):

Honorable mentions (consider them a 1/4 to 1/2, "Wow I am excited" face):

Javon Ringer (TEN), Glen Coffee (SF)

Commence your feedback and analysis!

NFL Powerless Rankings: Sept. 16, 2008

Josh Galligan — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 14:55:32 -0400

Ah, two weeks down, and two to go. There’s been some underachieving, some overachieving, and some conference-altering injuries. Never mind that the 2008 NFL Draft could shake out to be one of the best we’ve seen in a while, at least from an offensive skill-position perspective.

I know I said I was going to try and do a bottom five, top five, type deal with this—but instead I’m just going to focus on the bottom 10 teams. Think of it as a black abyss in regards to a teams' playoff hopes.

The good news? It’s only Week Two. So there’s no reason to get all hysterical and panic; although the time to do that is drawing near.

Cue the weaklings!

Dishonorable mentions: Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers

23. Minnesota Vikings

It’s funny how a popular sleeper pick ALWAYS manages to underperform, year after year. The Cardinals in 2006, the 49ers in 2007, and now it’s shaping up to be the Vikings in 2008. What do all of these teams have in common? Ding-ding-ding! They all have/had questionable QBs under center!

24. Seattle Seahawks

One could say the Seahawks defied the odds the past few years in their quest for multiple back-to-back NFC West crowns. On the other hand, you could say that they were able to do this in large part to there being absolutely zero competition for them to topple en route to the top.

Either way, despite the NFC West looking as weak as it ever has, the Seahawks appear to have finally succumbed to reality. Pretty much their entire WR corps has been injured in some way or another.

Although they could still pull it off if they get some of them back soon, it’s not looking very good. So much for a Mike Holmgren, feel good, last hurrah story.

25. Houston Texans

Granted, the Texans only loss this far was to the powerhouse Steelers, but they still were a disappointment, considering the hopes attached to them in the preseason. With a bottom 10, especially one this early in the season, there’s always going to be some question marks in the rankings—and the Texans are perhaps the biggest one this time around.

All they need to get out of the basement is to defeat the resurgent Titans this Sunday. Yeah, exactly.

26. Atlanta Falcons

Ah, how much difference a week makes. Despite looking mighty impressive in a Week One, romping of the Lions, the Falcons appeared to fall back to earth in a Week Two loss to the Buccaneers. This wasn’t too surprising. They have a rookie QB and were playing the Lions, after all. More on that team with an epically horrible GM in a bit.

27. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders won this past week; however, it was against the Chiefs, who are arguably the worst team in the league. Any team with as many questions at head coach as the Raiders have will have a difficult time winning consistently.

The defense looked loads better, but again, it was against the Chiefs. Only time will tell if their rushing attack can prove to keep them in some ball games. It can only do so much.

28. Cincinnati Bengals

Just when you think they have it all together, are healthy, and are primed for a potentially upbeat season, the Bengals' offense (the very thing that kept them legit, by the way) shits the bed and plays like one of the worst units for the first two weeks.

Are they trying to get Marvin Lewis fired or something? Or is it a coup d’état against fantasy football owners? I’m stumped.

29. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs were one of the teams none were too high on heading into the season, and one of their best players is now at odds with the coaching staff. Larry Johnson is right though, they need to give him at least 30 carries a game. What have they got to lose? (Hint: Absolutely nothing.)

30. Detroit Lions

After an impressive first half in 2007, many thought the Lions had solved their losing woes and would actually finish with a winning record. The team has talent, there’s no doubt about that, but Matt Millen needs to go.

Until he does, the shadow of all his poor decisions is going to loom over this team. What’s it going to take before he resigns? A riot?

31. Miami Dolphins

Many were optimistic about the Dolphins this year—myself included. However, with the team’s refusal to pound the rock and no real option at QB, given Chad Pennington’s inability to play competently, they’re just as bad as last year.

Except this time around the defense doesn’t have Jason Taylor. Either Ronnie Brown bounces back and returns to pre-2007-injury form, or this team may end up struggling to win much more than their sole win total in 2007.

And the “winner” is…

32. St. Louis Rams

I don’t have anything nice to say about the Rams, so I’m not going to say anything at all. Except that I feel awfully bad for Marc Bulger. I don’t care what QB you put behind the Rams offensive line, they wouldn’t be effective, wondering whether or not they had to go to the emergency room that night.

End of story. The Rams need to get working on that sorry excuse for an O-line, because as of right now, it truly is offensive.

The Top-10 Things That Will Happen During or After Tonight's Season Opener

Josh Galligan — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 07:38:42 -0400

I don’t know about you, but I’m thinking that it’s going to take me a little while to realize that the 'Skins/Giants matchup isn’t a preseason game. I've watched entirely too much preseason football.

One of the biggest differences between a preseason game and a regular-season one are the things that are talked about before, during, and after the game.

Some things most people just don't like to talk about during the preseason, as I’m sure you noticed when you tried to tell anyone who would listen why you thought R.W. McQuarters was in for a comeback season for the ages.

Hey, why don't you stop playing franchise mode in Madden for a while?

While sitting at my desk this morning, counting the seconds until I would be out of work, I decided to put together a Top-10 list of things that will most certainly happen during or in the aftermath of tonight’s season opener. And by most certainly, I mean maybe.

10.

Jason Campbell will be dropped from approximately 675,000 fantasy teams nationwide Friday morning, despite managing to have a pretty decent game.

We are nothing if not a nation who loves to overreact on things.

Tatum Bell will be brought up at some point, followed by an awkward silence as the announcers aren't quite sure how to deal with the topic.

This is a wild card for sure, but I wanted to throw in a surprise or two.

Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora will be mentioned approximately 27 times.

Sure, the loss of the two will have huge ramifications, but the announcers will likely ignore most of the actual happenings in-game in order to discuss this in detail.

Regardless of the game result, some New York newspaper will manage to post a pessimistic article.

This would actually be a mortal lock everyday, but I figured I’d highlight it since I couldn’t think of anything else to put here.

Whoever loses will give us a better perspective on which team has pole position for last place in the NFC East, both literally and seasonally.

I, for one, think it’s pretty clear that the Cowboys and Eagles are the top two teams in the division. Barring injuries or...injuries, the Redskins and Giants could end up battling for third place. Good times!

Multiple owners of any of the Giants' three top RBs (Derrick Ward, Brandon Jacobs, and Ahmad Bradshaw) will go certifiably insane.

Hey, don’t look at me; you’re the one’s who drafted them.

The world will be introduced to at least two new Peyton Manning commercials.

I know this joke was killed about eight months ago, but I plan to use it up until the day I die.

Tom Brady’s foot will be brought up at least 16 times.

Even though there’s precisely no concrete info on the topic, NFL game announcers certainly are suckers for the big-name injury rumor.

Tom Coughlin’s facial complexion will be monitored closely.

I would like to add to that that shots from last year's playoff game against Green Bay will also be shown. Comparisons between the two colors could likely be made.

Due to a mixture of pure joy that the NFL season has begun and having lost their tolerance during such a long offseason, the majority of workers on Friday morning will be incredibly hung over.

Nothing like whiskey at 11:00 on a work night! Woo-hoo!

NFL Powerless Rankings: Sept. 3, 2008

Josh Galligan — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 17:22:20 -0400

After some low-to-mild success with my MLB Powerless Rankings, I felt it was only right to spread the nearly non-existent buzz to the wondrous NFL world we all know and love.

If you’ve never read any type of Power Rankings, then you’re either lying to yourself or you don’t know how to read. Since your reading this, we’ve just eliminated one half of those. Liar.

Any questions?

What are the Powerless Rankings?

The Powerless Rankings are a set of rankings that focus on the bottom five teams in the league at a given time (weekly). We pay so much attention to all the good teams—ranking them and verbally commending them—why should the bad teams be left out in the cold (besides that they’re horrible)?

Although it’s exciting at the beginning of the year because it tends to enflame fans of particular teams much more than during the midseason mark, the rankings will eventually feature a top-five as well.

So they’ll start out strictly powerless but end up getting pretty powerful. Don’t worry though; I’ve heard that they end up coexisting together quite nicely from the three people who’ve read the MLB version.

How do I know if the Powerless Rankings are for me?

If you’re easily enraged and/or lack the ability to admit that your hometown team may not be stacked at every position, I suggest you turn away. Just pretend this article was about hamsters or something. What are you reading this for? You don’t even like hamsters! Go away!

Other than that, I don’t think there’s anything else that needs explaining. The rankings start at 28th and move down to 32nd, in what is a warped, sorry excuse to try and build some suspense. The “winner” is basically the “loser.”

It’s really quite ironic.

Do you realize that you’re essentially asking yourself questions?

Yes, yes I do. But hey, being on house arrest in the interests of being a good father and being at home with my daughter (while the other half works the overnights) does have its benefits! I have so much time on my hands that not only can I ask myself questions, but I can also pound out random articles that randomly appear in my head.

Will you please shut up and get on with this already?

Yes. My fault...

<cue dramatic NFL Films music>

NFL Powerless Rankings – Sept. 3 - Week 0

28. Miami Dolphins

Sure, the Dolphins' team as a whole has improved since last year’s one-win pathetic fest, but not that much. In fact, they no longer have Jason Taylor who (in addition to salsa dancing) was a pretty big part of their defense for last very long time.

Wait a second, aren’t Jason Taylor’s replacements Vonnie Holliday and Kendall Langford? Uh, yeah, that’s a bit of a downgrade, I would say.

Joey Porter is also reportedly overreacting to minor injuries as if they are career threatening in nature, which sounds suspiciously to me like someone isn’t too high on playing on a rebuilding team again this year.

As much as I’ll admit that the offensive unit has some rising young stars on it, the defense, at least for this year, isn’t going to be accomplishing too much outside of establishing a new identity.

Stock: Rising

29. San Francisco 49ers

As highly as you hold Mike Martz, you still have to know that even he can’t do the impossible. A lot of people are of the belief that he’s going to radically transform the offense into a well-oiled, Rams team of yore-esque, machine. Don’t get me wrong, the offense is going to get better. But they also don’t have anywhere else to go but up.

Barring J.T. O’Sullivan bursting upon the scene in something akin to the Brady/Romo, "What’s this guy’s name again?" mold, the 49ers will only go as far as Frank Gore and the defense can take them.

Stock: At rest

30. Baltimore Ravens

Many people questioned the Ravens' early decision to delay the start of the Joey Flacco era, mainly because of the other two options they were considering as starters (Kyle Boller and Troy Smith).

In what was a refreshing surprise, the Ravens eventually ended up naming Flacco the starter, which was something their fans had been demanding since he’d been drafted.

Although, to be fair, they probably only did so because of blatant, recorded evidence contrary to that of their original decision.

A smart move if I’ve ever seen one.

The primary staple of team, the defense, isn’t getting any younger, while the offense, which was usually the brunt of the team jokes, is on the rise. It’s a rebuilding year for sure, but at least the rebuilding appears to be going in a productive and sensible direction.

Stock: Dropping

31. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs shored up their team with some solid NFL Draft selections this past April. But unfortunately, they still have major questions at arguably the two most important parts of a football team: quarterback and the offensive line. As talented as Larry Johnson is, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to carry the offense all by himself.

Until they prove to the contrary (a contrary that is a safe bet not to be proven on Sunday), here the Chiefs will stay. Like the 49ers, if the Chiefs do manage to prove me otherwise, you can rest assured I will make fun of myself in the very next installation.

Stock: At rest

And the “winner” is…

32. Atlanta Falcons

Unlike the Ravens, the Falcons decided early on to throw rookie QB Matt Ryan into the starting fire this season. This probably had a lot to do with the fact that they had signed Ryan to a contract that was comparable to the gross income of a small country—but still, that’s neither here nor there.

At least they decided what they wanted and they decided it early.

The 2008 Falcons could very well become the staple comparison for a team that is going through a "rebuilding year."

All is not bad, at least on offense. Michael Turner could prove to be a solid starting RB, and Roddy White looks to be a top-tier WR. However, clutching at straws isn’t going to get the Falcons any wins, so expect them to make a comfortable living down here in the basement.

Stock: Comfortably at rest

Dishonorable mentions: Chicago Bears, St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders

NFL 2008 Preview and Playoff Predictions

Josh Galligan — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 21:39:00 -0400

Ah, can you smell it? No, not the sorry excuse for food you’re brewing in your kitchen—the NFL season genius! There’s a hint of fall in the air, and all of the locals are wearing the current player bandwagon jersey.

Labor Day has finally arrived, and it’s officially okay to start planning how to bogart your children’s Halloween candy. It all hints at the same thing, with that thing being the official arrival of the NFL season (a.k.a. the only sports season that really matters).

For whatever reason, this particular offseason seemed especially rough. But it’s okay now, because we’re officially less than 72 hours from opening night.

Speaking of opening night, we’ll kickoff this year’s NFL season with two teams from the NFC East, which is arguably the toughest division in football. Well, save for the Redskins, who are like the redheaded step-child of the division, but even they are better than most other teams.

Would there be a better place to start off an NFL preview than with the toughest division in the sport? I submit that there is not.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. New York Giants
4. Washington Redskins

The Dallas Cowboys are the popular pick here and with good reason; their team is stacked and they are the token most-played-as-on-Madden team of 2008. However, the only team that can go blow-for-blow with them on offense in the division are the Eagles.

The Eagles improved on both offense (DeSean Jackson) and defense (Asante Samuel), not to mention that they have a threat to top 2,000 yards from scrimmage in Brian Westbrook. Barring a Donovan McNabb injury, the team will be a serious competitor in both the division and the entire league.

Usually, defending Super Bowl champs get a bit more respect, but not when they’ve lost two integral parts of the winning team. Michael Strahan retired to follow Tiki Barber’s blazoned career path towards television, whereas Osi Umenyiora has been lost for the year thanks to a torn lateral meniscus. And no, I have no idea what a meniscus is.

Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka are talented, but not enough so to completely fill in the aforementioned players' cleats. Not even close. It also remains to be seen which Eli Manning is going to show up this season. Either the Super-Vendetta Eli or the Aw-Shucks-That-Was-My-Fault-You-Dropped-That Eli.

Likely to end up in the cellar is the Washington Redskins. Jason Campbell and company will be making the transition into the West Coast offense this year and will be working out all the kinks. Again, being in the basement of the NFC East isn’t even that bad. I see it being like a refurnished basement complete with ping pong tables, a mini-fridge, and a nice, sports-watching section. Just like the AFC South would have...

AFC SOUTH

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Houston Texans
4. Tennessee Titans

Easily the toughest division in the AFC, the South saw three of its teams gain entry into the playoffs last year. Even before all the reports out of Indiana broke about Peyton Manning’s not-that-serious knee injury actually being quite serious, I had the Jaguars pegged as division winners.

They’ve shown they can, at times, play on the Colts' level, offensively, over the past few years and now, finally, have a quarterback who is capable of managing everything necessary in order to beat them.

The defense lost some key players (Marcus Stroud) but quickly found players to shore up the defensive line through the NFL Draft (Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves).

The Colts, on the other hand, have questions about Peyton Manning’s knee and Marvin Harrison’s ability to contribute at a pre-2007 level. Both instances have likely been over-blown, but it’s worth noting, especially from a team who hasn’t had any of those problems for what seems like the past 55 years.

The Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans are in the bottom tier of the division, but both having promising young teams. It’s a toss-up as to whom most think will finish ahead of the other, but I figure there’s a good chance they’ll both finish with nearly the same record (somewhere around 8-8).

The key for the Texans will be the health of QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson, whereas for the Titans, it will be Vince Young’s progression into a mature QB. He showed flashes of maturity last year, as well as a blossoming connection with his receivers.

If everything goes as it should, this division could be a down-and-out war, year after year, for the next five to seven years.

Also, does anyone think we should apologize to Charlie Casserley after he was shunned from society after the Mario Williams pick? Although Reggie Bush wasn’t a bust by any means, he definitely hasn’t lived up to the Barry Sanders-like billing everyone was placing upon him. Hey, speaking of Reggie Bush...

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Atlanta Falcons

The New Orleans Saints had an off year last year, compared to their 2006, but they look to return to the big stage this year with nearly everyone healthy, as well as some new additions.

Jeremy Shockey and injury-red-shirt rookie Robert Meachem should make some positive contributions on offense. Plus, Drew Brees is very unlikely to take any of Shockey’s s#&@ like Eli did, which could actually mean we may see an improvement in Shockey’s play.

No one has had the balls to tell him what he does wrong yet, so we’ll have to wait and see how he’ll take to Brees. Several draft picks could contribute defensively, including, but not limited to, USC defensive tackle Sedrick Willis.

Dan Morgan and Jonathan Vilma should also help out. To summarize it all, with the state of the rest of the division, it’s a safe bet that the Saints will win the NFC South this season.

The Carolina Panthers would beg to differ with that, with most of the key pieces from their explosive-offensive days again ready to start together. Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, and Muhsin Muhammad all look to be healthy, although Jake Delhomme is coming off of Tommy John surgery—which is never a good thing for a QB.

The Panthers also has a potentially potent duo of running backs in DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart. Unfortunately, besides some good rookies and solid-at-best free-agent signings, the Panthers' defense looks much the same as it did last year.

Last year’s problem was a failure to live up to expectations, so perhaps they can do the opposite in 2008.

A lot of people have Tampa Bay higher—maybe even winning the division—but I expect Jeff Garcia to fall back to earth this year. I actually expected it last year, too, but it didn’t happen. Usually I wouldn’t expect such things two years in a row, but in Garcia’s case (his age), I’m going to.

The defense is aging but is still solid and should be effective. Earnest Graham’s 2007 remains in question because it was so short, so we’ll have to wait and see on him as well. In a division known for the top teams falling down the ranks and then climbing back up again, this year may be the Bucs turn.

The Falcons are just a paradox. Rookie Matt Ryan will start at QB and Michael Turner—a yet unproven RB—will be the first-string RB. The defense isn’t very good, especially with the departure of DeAngelo Hall, so it’s a wise move to expect a last-place finish this year from them. Hey, that made me think of...

NFC NORTH

1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Detroit Lions
4. Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears! You’ve likely heard enough about the NFC North already, thanks to all that was covered during the Favre saga, but hey, we don’t have to talk about Brett again until the AFC East. Save that one for last? Sure!

The Minnesota Vikings have a solid, talented team and are incredibly strong at nearly every position, save for QB. Fortunately for them, the three other teams in the division have the same problem.

Although Bryant McKinnie is out for four weeks, and Tarvaris Jackson is going to have to win some of their ballgames himself, he’s going to have tons of opportunities to do so, thanks to the Vikings' defensive front. Is it too early to suggest a Purple People-Eaters II type nickname? What’s that? That nickname sucked you say?

Alright, well, the Vikings' defense is going to be giving opposing offenses fits all year long, and the combination of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor should give Tarvaris Jackson plenty of soft secondaries to through into.

If Aaron Rodgers turns out as billed, then the Packers will have a good shot at the division. But the pressure of filling in You-Know-Who’s shoes, and the fact that he’s going to have to beat the Vikings all by himself, (TWICE) because Ryan Grant won’t have any success against them, will likely add up to a second-place finish. Maybe less, but I doubt that.

Taking a look at the other half of the division, the Chicago Bears' situation has officially become a joke, and the Detroit Lions have been one for years. However, I think the Lions have enough talent on offense, and Jon Kitna is just crazy enough to think they can really win 14 games this year.

They won't be 14-wins decent, but more like seven or eight, and especially so if they land Rudi Johnson to complement Kevin Smith (which it appears they have).

As for the Bears, well, I don’t have anything nice to say, so I won’t say anything at all, although I’d be surprised if they don’t finish in last place. A team I WOULD be surprised at finishing last makes its home in...

AFC NORTH

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Cleveland Browns
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Baltimore Ravens

The Pittsburgh Steelers are stacked, that’s the only way I can put it—they're just incredibly stacked. They have a weapon for nearly every devisable situation, and it just baffles me.

A lot of people think the Browns are going to compete with them, thanks to last year’s performance, but I have serious, serious doubts about Derek Anderson.

Unless he proves that last year wasn’t a fluke, especially after his tailspin at the end of the year that was either due to A) He isn’t good under pressure, or, B) He isn’t good when defensive coordinators have sufficient game tape of him to game plan against him, I think the Browns would do well to keep him on a short leash in favor of Brady Quinn.

I could be wrong, but I think Anderson's late-2007 performance has been overlooked quite often.

The team I was referring to that I would be surprised if they finished in last place was the Cincinnati Bengals. I even considered putting them in at the No. 2 spot but realized that the only reason I would be doing that would be to make a crazy, controversial prediction just for the sake of making one. I can’t stand people who do that.

The Bengals once again have everyone healthy, although now they have a new RB with tons of potential. However, that potential is watered-down by some injury risks, so it’s worth being wary of.

Even if they have problems at RB again this year, barring Chad Johnson's shoulder popping out of his socket, causing him to miss the entire year—I think the offense will be just fine. It’s the defense where the questions lie, so hopefully rookie Keith Rivers will give them solid play from such a high draft pick.

The Ravens have questions at many positions, but most have a good chance of panning out well in the long run (Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Fabian Washington). The defense continues to get older all the while, so it will be interesting to see when they start to focus on bringing some top-round draft talent or solid free-agents in order for the veterans to pass the torch on.

Who knows, though, Joey Flacco could have a fantastic rookie season, and the Ravens could compete for the division title. That would be quite doubtful, though. Just as doubtful is the situation out West...

NFC WEST

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. St. Louis Rams
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Arizona Cardinals

If the Seattle Seahawks played in any other division, it’s unlikely they’d still be able to scoot by and win the division year after year with so many injury problems. However, no one in the NFC West has stepped up to claim the throne, so the Seahawks stay seated there.

This year, the only real threat to the division crown is the St. Louis Rams, who were plagued by injuries so widespread it seemed like it was contagious. With the return of a healthy Stephen Jackson and the entire offensive line, the Rams look to fare a lot better this year.

Seattle’s situation is—yet again—muddied by injury this year and yet again at the WR position. Both Deion Branch and Bobby Engram will miss a significant amount of time, although they leave behind openings that look to be filled by some talented, young wideouts.

Matt Hasselbeck is still Matt Hasselbeck.

The RB spot has what seems like a dozen possible starting candidates, and the defense isn’t the best in the league, but it also isn’t the worst. Here’s a perfect opportunity to use the word solid right here. They Seahawks defense is solid. The word solid is a solid word in terms of being a football adjective, I think.

The 49ers, doubtfully proud owners of the worst, most anemic offense in the NFL last year have been giving a gleam of hope with the arrival of Mike Martz.

The whole discussion has been beaten to death several times, so I’ll try and keep it simple. Josh Morgan is going to be Martz’s Torry Holt, Vernon Davis and Isaac Bruce will combine to be Martz’s pre-2006 Isaac Bruce, and Frank Gore is going to a be a tougher, more downhill-running version of Martz’s Marshall Faulk.

The only problem is that Martz is expecting J.T. O’Sullivan to be his Marc Bulger/Kurt Warner. This may be the year that Mike Martz finally realizes that he is indeed a mere mortal, just like the rest of us. I’ll be surprised if the offense catches fire this year, but if it does, I will express an undying respect of Mike Martz. So we’ll see.

Finally, we have the Arizona Cardinals. The perennial underachievers of the NFL, the Cardinals fail to live up to hopes, even when those hopes are actually warranted (like the arrival of Edgerrin James).

The Cardinals' season is going to be started off with Kurt Warner at the helm, and he will lead them where he always does, on a good path towards the playoffs that suddenly and unexpectedly turns towards the edge of a cliff. This should happen around midseason, with the hopes of a playoff bid dwindling.

The Cardinals will throw Matt Leinart in, realize he won’t get them in the playoffs, but keep him in there anyway since they’ll also realize that maybe they need to keep him in for a good chunk of games in order for him to get used to being the starting QB.

I heard in-game experience does wonders for quarterbacks, but what do I know? But speaking of in-game experience for QBs...

AFC WEST

1. Denver Broncos
2. San Diego Chargers
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Kansas City Chiefs

The AFC West has two quarterbacks who are in dire need of in-game experience: Brodie Croyle and JaMarcus Russell. Because of this, the division is essentially a shoo-in to be won by either the Broncos or Chargers.

Jay Cutler proved last year that he’s the real deal, and the fact that the Broncos' running game is so frigging befuddling doesn’t really matter so much anymore. Brandon Marshall’s suspension was cut to one game, which meant more to his ecstatic fantasy owners than the actual team, and the team drafted rookie WR Eddie Royal, who is apparently of the rare breed of rookie WRs with enough tools to be named a starter in his first year.

All of that, combined with major question in San Diego, should add up to a division crown for the Broncos.

The San Diego Chargers have injury questions, mainly for Antonio Gates and Philip Rivers, but LaDainian Tomlinson proved at the end of last year that he may be a mortal as well. The guy has racked up nearly 2,500 carries (excluding receptions), so it’s really no surprise that he managed to get injured at least once.

It’s a smart bet to expect either a regression or a beginning of a regression from him this year, which is something that will not bode well for Philip Rivers. Nor would the situation from his favorite target, Antonio Gates, who has stated he doesn’t know how his big toe will hold up this year.

For such a big person and such a big percentage of Philip Rivers’s total completions, Gate’s big toe could spell big problems for Rivers and the Chargers' overall offense. Poor Chris Chambers, he waited way too long to demand a trade from Miami.

That leaves the Chiefs and Raiders to battle it out for third place, even though each team’s future looks very bright after their recent drafts. The Raiders have heralded, Hall of Fame lock, Darren McFadden to look forward to, while the Chiefs have a large portion of their 73 draft picks to look forward to.

Not to mention, Brodie Croyle faced some very tough pass defenses in his six losses last year, so there is reason for some optimism with him this year. On the subject of optimism, let’s head down east to...

AFC EAST

1. New England Patriots
2. New York Jets
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are a mortal lock to once again finish last in the AFC East, despite improving leaps and bounds since Bill Parcells arrival. Overall in the division, barring a Tom Brady injury, the Patriots should once again take the division crown, despite the improving competition.

The Jets got Brett Favre; everyone will be better, blah, blah, blah. The biggest acquisition, and I’ll stand by this to the end, will turn out to be Alan Faneca. He and Damien Woody will help shore up the offensive line, which is where all improvements to the running and passing game begin.

Obviously, Brett Favre is an improvement, but the biggest reason the Jets will truly compete for the AFC East title will be in large thanks to Alan Faneca and Damien Woody.

The Bills have apparently found a suitable future QB in Trent Edwards and a staple franchise RB in Marshawn Lynch.

If James Hardy pans out, he should make for a dangerous pairing, along with Lee Evans. So the offense appears all set. The defense is also quickly improving, an improvement that was boosted for the short-term with the addition of Marcus Stroud.

Had the Jets not acquired Alan Faneca, I most definitely would have penciled in the Bills for the two spot. But they did, so I won’t.

THE PLAYOFFS (DUH, DUH DUHH – DUH DUH DUH DUH DUH DUHHH!!)

Wild Card Round

(6) Jets @ (3) Jaguars - Jaguars

(5) Cowboys @ (4) Seahawks - Cowboys

(6) Panthers @ (3) Vikings – Vikings

(5) Colts @ (4) Broncos – Colts

Divisional Round

(5) Colts @ (1) Patriots – Patriots

(3) Vikings @ (1) Eagles – Eagles

(3) Jaguars @ (2) Steelers – Steelers

(5) Cowboys @ (2) Saints – Cowboys

Conference Championships Round

(2) Steelers @ (1) Patriots – Patriots

(5) Cowboys @ (1) Eagles – Cowboys

The Super Bowl

Cowboys vs. Patriots – Patriots

Non-Homer Super Bowl Prediction

Cowboys vs. Steelers – Cowboys

I don't think the playoff picks need to be explained too much, although I couldn't decide which to pick between the Patriots and Steelers, so I used the homer way out.

The RB Odometer: High Career-Carry Red Flags

Josh Galligan — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 01:41:00 -0400

The biggest milestone that we seem to have set for running backs is for when they turn 30 years old.

It’s not even a good milestone either, despite what the majority of the population will tell you. Our brains have been wired to signal alarm sounds in our minds and produce tunnel vision whenever a three—decade—old RB is even mentioned.

It’s always struck me as odd.

There HAD to be a better way to accomplish the same goal, with the goal being a common point in time when it is a good idea to expect a RB’s numbers to decline.

I’ve seen plenty of 27, 28, and 29—year—old backs regress and never again return to form. Why is a 30—year old so much different?

Because I wanted to do it correctly, and because the potential result may actually be useful, I thought for a while on how I could do this. Should I select a random middle grouping of RBs? Filter out most of them with a minimum requirement?

At first, I didn’t even consider using the top 10 in career carries, since I thought it would be a travesty to put such an upper—echelon of talent in with any lesser human beings.

Then I realized that they were indeed, still human, and that meant that their bodies were just as susceptible to damage as the others were.

So until we find out that John Riggins was made of metal, which is a definite possibility, I’ve included them.

To give a brief, step—by—step account of how this went down, I started off with a massively gigantic list of the top-200 RBs for total career carries.

A few seconds later, I realized how stupid it would be if I included most of them in the sample, so I whittled it down a bit.

I was eventually left with a list of nearly 100 and a minimum entry requirement of 1,200 carries.

I then took out all active players, those who were smart enough to retire before their rushing average dipped into horrific territory, (See: Barry Sanders, Corey Dillon, Tiki Barber) and anyone who played the majority of their career before 1978 (schedule jump year).

I then added everything together for the remaining list, but got a rushing amount average that seemed a tad skewed. How would I ever solve such a roadblock of a problem?

The answer was simple: With a little help from our friend, the tier system.

Not the tier system as we usually know it, since I only broke the total group into two tiers, but still.

The top group consisted of RBs that had at least 1,800 carries. The bottom group was those who had at least 1,200 to 1,799 carries.

Next, I went through the list, player by player, and marked the year in which they had their final solid season. I didn’t have any specific mathematical criteria, just looking through their career stats and picking the year that would turn out to be the year BEFORE their decline began.

Next, I calculated the amount of carries the given players had at that point. If you haven’t noticed by now, this whole system would be applied to RBs BEFORE the season starts. It’s a yearly way of tagging red flags. You could do it mid—season, but by then it wouldn’t be of much use.

Now, before I give the estimates and incur the wrath from those who have RBs with approaching limits on their fantasy rosters, let me just spell out how this could potentially be used.

The bottom half amount could be applied to everyone approaching the number of carries, with the realization that many have surpassed the limit and went on to have longer and even more consistent careers.

So the bottom half's red—flag amount isn’t really an end all, be all. In fact, we shouldn’t even call them red flags; they're more like educated doubts.

The top half amount is a better indicator of possible red flags, even though those would likely already exist for someone who’d been in the league long enough to rack up such a high amount of carries.

Hey, at least it's better than, “Uh, he’s 30. Expect an imminent and automatic decline, because uh, well, he’s 30!”

Or at least I hope it is.

Anyways, since I can’t explain or sugarcoat it anymore, here are the findings. And I know these are subject to a lot of outside factors and shouldn’t be taken TOO seriously, but you have to admit that it's intriguing.

The Bottom Tier: An average "educated doubt" for 1,280+ carries.

Notable active/currently inactive players who are approaching or who have passed 1,280 carries

1. Clinton Portis - 1,710
2. Thomas Jones - 1,659
3. Travis Henry - 1,488
4. Rudi Johnson - 1,441
5. Deuce McAllister - 1,322
6. Willis McGahee - 1,162
7. Larry Johnson - 1,050
8. Brian Westbrook - 1,014
9. Steven Jackson - 971
10. Willie Parker - 945

—Rudi Johnson may have been seen his last days as a starter who puts up big numbers, while Willis McGahee could begin regression due to injuries in 2008.
—Larry Johnson is running full speed ahead towards the 1,280 mark, with little to no regard for anyone or anything in his way.
—Brian Westbrook has proven to be one of the best backs in the NFL, but with more years than the average player in his position, he may be more affected the deeper he gets beyond 1,280 carries.
—Travis Henry could have seen his last solid year, but for reasons not related to actual football.

The Upper Tier: An average red flag for 2200+ carries.

Notable active/currently inactive players who are approaching or who have passed 2,200 carries

1. Edgerrin James - 2,849
2. Warrick Dunn - 2,483
3. LaDainian Tomlinson - 2,365
4. Fred Taylor - 2,285
5. Shaun Alexander - 2,176
6. Jamal Lewis - 2,120
7. Ahman Green - 1,941
8. Priest Holmes - 1,780
9. Ricky Williams - 1,763

—Edge is a beast and could be classified as one of the rare backs who can take a beating for an infinite amount of time. He has to regress at some point, though.
—LaDainian Tomlinson is still going strong, but his body has recently showed signs of the wear and tear that always comes with 2,350+ carries.
—Is this finally the year Fred Taylor plays like his age says he should?
—How effective can Ricky Williams be so far removed from football and with so much mileage on his odometer?

None of the players listed are a sure thing to regress this year, but it’s certainly worth taking a closer look at. Oh and some possible trade-ins, too.

Target Practice: TD's and Yardage Points Per Target

Josh Galligan — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 02:20:00 -0400

I’m not going to try and hard sell you on why targets are important, don’t worry. If you are doubtful, or you just don't know what they are exactly, then you can read my previous article right here.

I brought up some concerns in the previous version about how the fantasy points per target statistic may have been too general. Those concerns, when looked at closer, did turn out to be quite warranted. So the only other thing to do was start all over but this time with a more specific set of statistics. That also included breaking everything down by year instead of just the totals.

Those specific statistics are touchdowns per target and yardage points per target. Touchdowns per target (or TDs/Tg as it will now be known) are pretty self-explanatory. It’s the amount of TD’s a given player scores for every target they receive.

The other statistic is yardage points per target (YPts/Tg), which is the amount of fantasy points a player accrues with touchdowns (6 points per TD) subtracted. For instance, if Johnny Rocket had 100 fantasy points in 2007 and 6 TD’s, his yardage points for the year would be 64. This isn’t rocket science, people.

To start off, I broke the target stats up by year (since 2002) with the help of the Game Log Dominator. I wanted to get a good gauge of the fluctuations between YPts/Tg and TDs/Tg each year. The only cap for inclusion in each category was a minimum of 40 total targets for the season. Before we get into the analysis, here’s a nice picture of the spreadsheet for your viewing pleasure (you need to click the link as it wouldn't fit in here):

Click here for the spreadsheet picture

Assuming that you don’t have 100/20 vision and couldn’t read that spreadsheet for detail, allow me to break it down for you, as well as suggest that you perhaps see an eye doctor. And thank you, I know I have the ill Excel spreadsheet skills. But anyway, let's begin.

Here’s a breakdown for the amount of players in each year’s list that were NOT on it the year prior:

Yardage points per target
2002-2003: 18 players
2003-2004: 12 players
2004-2005: 12 players
2005-2006: 10 players
2006-2007: 17 players

Touchdowns per target
2002-2003: 17 players
2003-2004: 13 players
2004-2005: 13 players
2005-2006: 12 players
2006-2007: 14 players

I don’t think you need to be a math whiz to come to the conclusion that there’s a lot of WR’s that break into each stats Top 20 list every year. It can likely be attributed to many things. One, the WR position is the most difficult to consistently put up big numbers. This is due to a variety of factors, including but not limited to: Different QB’s, other WR’s, rookies, contract years, pure laziness, and age. Two, the WR corps on most teams can often be wide open and vary drastically from year to year. Unlike the QB and RB positions, where the starter only needs to worry about 1 or 2 possible replacements, WR’s need to worry about 3 or 4. Studs aside, it’s a very hard position to solidify a guaranteed position in. Especially in the financial landscape the NFL is experiencing right now.

You also may have noticed that both stats have relatively similar changes each year. The TDs/Tg list tends to have more veterans and solid journeyman grace its rankings whereas YPts/Tg is a haven for young, talented WR’s to break out into. The young player then matures and either makes the jump to the TD s/Tg list or finds he is talented enough to gain vaunted, both-list status. The cycle goes on and on. It makes sense, too. What kind of idiot would focus his red zone targets on a rookie unless he either a) Has hardly any quality receivers, or b) Has a Herman Moore in-his-prime-esque rookie talent? I’m not sure, but I know that I wouldn’t want him coaching my team.

On the recently broached topic of both-lists, though, let’s take a look at how many players found themselves onto both the TDs/Tg list and the YPts/Tg list each year:

Wide Receivers on both the TDs/Tg and YPts/Tg lists
2002: 8 players
2003: 12 players
2004: 11 players
2005: 12 players
2006: 13 players
2007: 11 players

Even some of the top WR’s who were consistently on at least one list each year managed to top more than 50% of their time in the league (since 2002) on both. Save for Reggie Wayne, who was on both lists every single year but one. Guy’s an absolute machine.

In the interests of putting what getting on these Top 20 lists means into perspective, here’s the average minimum stat lines by year:

YPts/Tg Minimum Stat Lines Per Year
2002: 80 targets, 93 fantasy points, 690 receiving yards, 4 TD’s
2003: 76 targets, 81 fantasy points, 690 receiving yards, 2 TD’s
2004: 89 targets, 95 fantasy points, 830 receiving yards, 2 TD’s
2005: 70 targets, 77 fantasy points, 710 receiving yards, 1 TD
2006: 70 targets, 87 fantasy points, 630 receiving yards, 4 TD’s
2007: 77 targets, 79 fantasy points, 730 receiving yards, 1 TD

TDs/Tg Minimum Stat Lines Per Year
2002: 70 targets, 71 fantasy points, 470 receiving yards, 4 TD’s
2003: 103 targets, 99 fantasy points, 630 receiving yards, 6 TD’s
2004: 87 targets, 93 fantasy points, 570 receiving yards, 6 TD’s
2005: 109 targets, 110 fantasy points, 680 receiving yards, 7 TD’s
2006: 84 targets, 86 fantasy points, 440 receiving yards, 7 TD’s
2007: 71 targets, 93 fantasy points, 630 receiving yards, 5 TD’s

Aaaand the minimum averages combined over the last six years:

YPts/Tg ‘02-‘07 Top 20 minimum stats average: 77 targets, 85 fantasy points, 730 receiving yards, 2 TD’s

TDs/Tg ’02-’07 Top 20 minimum stats averages: 87 targets, 92 fantasy points, 560 receiving yards, 6 TD’s

What’s that? Those stat lines suck you say? Well, this whole thing isn’t meant for you to somehow find the next Terrell Owens or Randy Moss. It’s meant to give a statistical low point on what you should get if you target the players correctly. It’s the minimum. On average, 11 new players will be on each respective list at the end of next year. That’s 22 possible players to research who could potentially net you a decent amount of fantasy points. They may not be a stud, but they could be a blossoming one. They may not win you a title by themselves, but they could help you in a couple of key spot starts throughout the season that prove critical to your acquisition of the Hefty Aluminum Foil Champions Trophy. See where this is going?

Unlike in the last article, where I tried to Nostradamus every exact fill-in all by myself, let’s take a look at the players who have the potential or lack thereof to get on the lists next year. But first, let’s sum up what type of players will find themselves on either list (excluding the elite WR shoo-ins):

Yardage points per target list

- Often young, inexperienced or both (rookies).
- Usually quick, nimble receivers who are good at gaining yards after the catch.
- Not usually a target of the QB in the red zone.
- Very likely to be a WR2 or WR3.

Touchdown points per target list

- Often experienced veterans and/or solid journeyman wide outs.
- Usually big-bodied possession receivers.
- Often a target in the end zone, but sometimes not the top one.
- Could be a WR1 or WR2 because of their scoring ability and experience.

Now, taking those two lists, you can more easily target WR’s who will fall into one of the two categories. It makes it easier to go and see just how many people you think will fall out of the Top 20, especially since it fluctuates year to year. So it’s not always exactly 11 exclusions.

To get your brain going, here are the 2007 Top 20’s, the mortal locks to stay on them, some possible players who may fall of them and then followed by those who could possibly gain access into the ranks next year:

2007 Top 20 in Yardage Points per Target
1 Santonio Holmes
2 Greg Jennings
3 Joey Galloway
4 Andre Johnson
5 Reggie Wayne
6 Terrell Owens
7 Antwaan Randle El
8 Donte Stallworth
9 Randy Moss
10 Chad Johnson
11 Jerricho Cotchery
12 Calvin Johnson
13 David Patten
14 Brandon Stokley
15 Justin Gage
16 Roddy White
17 Anquan Boldin
18 Donald Driver
19 Patrick Crayton
20 Dennis Northcutt

Mortal Locks To Remain On List:
Reggie Wayne
Terrell Owens
Randy Moss
Santonio Holmes**

** Interesting note: The #1 ranked player on the YPts/Tg list failed to make the list the following year in every year but one. That was Lee Evans in 2004-2005 and he finished 20th the following year (barely). What am I getting at? Well, just that he may not be a ‘mortal’ lock, but since he’s on my fantasy team I’ll throw him on there.

Possible Dropouts:
Antwaan Randle El
Justin Gage
Dennis Northcutt
Joey Galloway

Possible Non-Elite 2008 Additions:
Dwayne Bowe
Desean Jackson
Lee Evans
Reggie Brown
James Jones
Ted Ginn Jr.
Sidney Rice

2007 Top 20 in Touchdowns per Target
1 Randy Moss
2 Greg Jennings
3 Terrell Owens
4 Braylon Edwards
5 Nate Burleson
6 Santonio Holmes
7 Andre Johnson
8 Anquan Boldin
9 Patrick Crayton
10 Plaxico Burress
11 Marques Colston
12 T.J. Houshmandzadeh
13 Brandon Stokley
14 Laveranues Coles
15 Reggie Wayne
16 Hines Ward
17 Joey Galloway
18 Larry Fitzgerald
19 Jerry Porter
20 Wes Welker

Mortal Locks To Remain On List:
Randy Moss
Terrell Owens
Santonio Holmes
Plaxico Burress
Braylon Edwards
Marques Colston
Reggie Wayne
Larry Fitzgerald

Possible Dropouts:
Brandon Stokley
Hines Ward
Jerry Porter

Possible Non-Elite 2008 Additions:
Dwayne Bowe
Roddy White
Jerricho Cotchery
Roy Williams
Lee Evans
Santana Moss
Limas Sweed

The assignment my class, is to pick the 9-10 players that you think will absolutely stay on the list next year. Then, take a look at the following list and pick the difference from 20 as to who you think will break onto the list next year. And one rookie has made the YPts/Tg list in each of the last 3 years, so take that into account if you wish. Have fun and feel free to leave your findings in the replies.

Ted Ginn Jr.: Why You Can Pencil Him in For 70 Catches, 900 Yards And 6 TDs

Josh Galligan — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 15:53:00 -0400

With all the talk of Brett Favre this and Brett Favre that, the Dolphins sneaky acquisition of Chad Pennington went relatively unnoticed.

Can’t you just picture Bill Parcells shaking his head in disbelief that Pennington was basically placed in the teams lap? I sure can.

Now, I’m not saying Chad Pennington is going to have some type of comeback year for the ages or anything, but I am saying he’s the perfectly capable quarterback the receiving corps has been praying for.

Think about it: one of the following QB’s was currently slated to be slinging balls, many likely going to the wrong team. Complete with career stats:

Josh McCown: 609 for 1052 (57.9%), 6582 yards, 35 TD’s, 40 INT’s. He is entering his seventh NFL season.

John Beck: 60 for 107 (56.1%), 559 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT’s. He is entering his second NFL season.

Chad Henne: Has not yet started an NFL game and would have to go through the necessary growing pains expected of rookie QB’s.

Could one of those players ended up having a good 2008? Absolutely. Would you want to put any type of money on that? I doubt it.

Now, let’s take a look at the QB the world forgot about, Chad Pennington:

Chad Pennington: 1259 for 1919 (65.6%), 13738 yards, 82 TD’s, 55 INT’s. He is entering his ninth NFL season.

Uh, yeah. I’ll take Pennington, thanks.

Anyway, with that obvious but necessary piece out of the way, let’s take a look at Jerricho Cotchery’s stats from 2005, a year he wasn’t on the field too much.

Jerricho Cotchery
(2005): 19 receptions, 251 yards, 0 TD’s (12 games played, 1 game started)

Now, we know that Pennington was on the team in 2005, but Cotchery wasn’t given enough playing time to benefit from that. He was also still learning the intricacies of the wide receiver position, with it being only his second year in the league and his first with some good, solid playing time.

Let’s take a look at Ted Ginn Jr.'s stats in his first year in the league:

Ted Ginn Jr.
(2007): 34 receptions, 420 yards, 2 TD’s (16 games played, 9 games started)

It’s easy to see that Ginn had much more of a role in his rookie year than Cotchery had in his first two years in the NFL combined. Because of this, Ginn is likely well-entrenched in the verses of the WR position.

Now let’s take a look at Cotchery’s first year with a starting role in the offense, one that formally introduced him to Chad Pennington.

Jerricho Cotchery
(2006): 82 receptions, 961 yards, 6 TD’s (16 games started)

Not bad. A lot of that can be attributed to Cotchery’s talent, but some of it can also be placed on Pennington.

Cotchery was targeted 125 times in 2006 and the ball managed to find itself safely in his hands 82 of those times. Pennington may be knocked for his lack of any type of powerful arm, but the man is accurate. He’s completed nearly two thirds of his throws his entire career. All in all, I think it’s safe to assume that he’s a quality QB.

With Cotchery barely able to build a rapport with Pennington in 2005 due to the small amount of playing time, the two essentially built a connection throughout the 2006 season itself. Cotchery was also the second option for Pennington, with Laveranues Coles easily claiming the title of No. 1 WR and the QB’s favorite target.

Jumping back to the present, Ginn is the clear cut No. 1 WR on a Dolphins offense that’s looking to begin moving forward after some serious off-season patch-up work.

What does that mean? It means that Ginn will likely benefit from not only having more passes thrown to him (he had 71 last year), but also from a competent QB who can consistently throw the ball in his general vicinity.

Is it that much of a stretch to think that Ginn could put up similar numbers to what Cotchery churned out in 2006?

No. It’s definitely not.

The stretch would lie in how much better you think Ginn could do.

Cotchery was targeted 125 times as the No. 2 WR, but also benefited from having a superb receiver lining up opposite of him in Laveranues Coles. Ginn saw 71 targets last year as a rookie and it was a year in which he didn’t get much playing time until Chris Chambers left before Week Seven.

I would say that 125 targets for Ginn is a basement estimate. With reports that Ronnie Brown may have to start the season at a snails pace thanks to his finger injury, the Dolphins are sure to lean on Pennington until Brown returns.

No offense to Ricky Williams, since I’m sure he’ll contribute somewhat, but I want to see how he looks during an actual game that means something.

The guy is 31 years old and, not counting last years disappointing six rushing attempt season, hasn’t played a substantial amount of time in the NFL in what’s now approaching three years.

If thinking the Dolphins are going to pass a lot makes me crazy then so be it.

I don’t want to be sane.

In the interests of being realistic and not allowing the predictions to get out of hand, I say it’s safe to pencil in Ginn for at least 130 targets. Out of the 130 balls thrown to him, say 10 get called back by penalties or are nullified for whatever reason.

Chad Pennington’s career completion percentage is 65.6% but we’ll give age and a change in living situation the benefit of the doubt here and say he’ll complete 60% of his passes this year. That’s probably the bare minimum. Add in a quick entrance from our friend the calculator and that leaves us with the following projection:

2008 Projection

Ted Ginn Jr: 130 targets, 72 receptions, 900 yards, 6 TD’s

And that is being GENEROUS with the negative outside factors. Barring some type of major injury to Ginn, Pennington, or the offensive line, that stat line could very easily be achieved by Ginn unless he has managed to lose his football talent somehow during the offseason.

Aaaand... scene!

Filtered Strength of Schedule Rankings: Opposing Pass Defense

Josh Galligan — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:29:09 -0400

Welcome to the second part of the Filtered Strength of Schedule Rankings. If you haven’t read part one, these rankings will allow you to assign a filtered, position-specific value to a team based on the quality of the run or pass defenses they will be playing that year.

Then you can apply it to all of the applicable players and voila, you have yet another statistic to give you an edge come draft day.

I took last season's performance into account, as well as offseason pickups, departures, and rookie signings and then ranked the pass defenses into tiers. Once that was done, I assigned a point value to each tier level and then plugged in that number into every team’s schedule.

What I got, besides feeling like I was in elementary school again, were the rankings you will soon read. First off though, the tier rankings.

(No points) Tier Eight - The Tempurpedic-Secondary Tier

Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons

(1 point) Tier Seven - The Tendency-To-Cause-Pass-Happiness Tier

New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, St. Louis Rams, Cincinnati Bengals

(2 points) Tier Six - The Works-In-Progress/Regress Tier

Minnesota Vikings, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns

(3 points) Tier Five - The Required-To-Be-An-Optimist Tier

Baltimore Ravens, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers

(4 points) Tier Four - The Solid-Pass-Defense-But-With-Questions Tier

Miami Dolphins, Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers

(6 points) Tier Three - The Assuredly-Pesky Tier

New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Redskins, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans

(8 points) Tier Two - The Hazardous-To-Your-Passing-Game Tier

Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Jets

(10 points) Tier One - The Shutdown-Pass-Defense Tier

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers

Since we already started with tiers, I decided to take a left turn (to the run defense SOS’s right) and rank the difficulty of the schedules with tiers as well. The last article was extremely long, so I tried to shorten the analysis a bit this time around. I’m afraid I wasn’t too successful, though.

The tiers are listed below, followed by the teams within it, and then a list of players that the schedule may affect the most in the real world and, in turn, the fantasy world.

Players with question marks next to their names may prove to be controversial but remember, it is all speculation. Capping everything off is a quick blurb about each team because I just couldn’t resist.

Enough jibber-jabber. The schedule rankings (from difficult to easy):

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Tier Six - Incredibly difficult

Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, San Diego Chargers, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans

Players the schedule may affect the most: Derek Anderson, everyone in the Ravens' passing attack, Chris Chambers, Antonio Gates (?)

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals' offense is just too potent to warrant downgrading any of them. Besides, they had one of the toughest passing-defense schedules last year and ended up just fine.

Baltimore Ravens

It’s highly likely that whomever starts for the Ravens between Kyle Boller and Troy Smith will not end up doing too well, considering the team's schedule. Although, many were leaning towards that conclusion before taking the schedule into account.

San Diego Chargers

Say what you want about Philip Rivers (I sure have), but he had one of the toughest schedules last year in regards to the passing defenses he faced.

Cleveland Browns

Derek Anderson shrunk in the spotlight at the end of last year and failed to impress when facing teams with quality pass defenses. Luckily for us (and maybe Brady Quinn), we’ll see his true colors in the first two games of the year, which are against the Cowboys and Steelers, respectively.

Houston Texans

The Texans were another team with one of the toughest pass-defense schedules in the NFL last year. Three of Matt Schaub’s nine starts came against top passing defenses. Taking that into account, along with the fact it was his first full year as a starting QB, helps put things into a better perspective. Trying to throw the running game into the equation? Not as much success.

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Tier Five - Above-average difficulty

Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers

Players the schedule may affect the most: Tony Romo (?), Jason Witten, Brodie Croyle, everyone in the Falcons' passing attack, whomever wins the Patriots' WR3 job

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys had one of the easiest pass-defense schedules in the league last year, yet Tony Romo still managed to throw 19 interceptions. How much of his 4,000+ yards and 36 TDs were influenced by the secondary’s he faced? Note: There isn’t an actual answer to that question.

Kansas City Chiefs

An incredibly interesting thing to note about Brodie Croyle: All of his six starts that he lost came against a top-tier passing defense. The Broncos, Colts, Raiders, Broncos, Titans, and Jets. Maybe we should cut the kid a break? Who’s with me?

New England Patriots

The Patriots had a marginally difficult schedule against passing defenses last year, although you wouldn’t have known it by watching them play. The only teams that were able to stay on close to the same level with them were the Jets and Dolphins, both late in the season.

With Jason Taylor’s departure likely to send ripples through the secondary, the Jets' pass defense stands as the only one in the division that can challenge the Patriots' passing attack.

Tennessee Titans

Fact: Vince Young didn’t have a very good year last year. Fact: Seven of his 15 starts came against top-10 passing defenses. Fiction: Young had a suitable group of receivers to throw to during the aforementioned starts. Fact: I love fact and fiction breakdowns. Hmm, interesting.

Atlanta Falcons

Reports out of Atlanta suggest that the Falcons are planning on throwing Matt Ryan to the dogs his rookie season, a la Peyton Manning. Barring a rookie season for the ages, expect a steep learning curve for Matty Ice.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers find themselves with a few more games against high-quality passing defenses this year than in the last. However, they also find themselves with a more balanced and well-rounded offense heading into the season. As long as Ben Roethlisberger can stay off his motorcycle, the Steelers' passing offense should be just fine.

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Tier Four - Not too bad/Average schedule

New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks

Players the schedule may affect or benefit the most: Eli Manning (affect), Trent Edwards (benefit), Lee Evans (benefit), David Garrard (benefit), Jay Cutler (benefit)

New York Giants

Believe it or not, Eli Manning actually had one of the easiest passing-defense schedules last year. You wouldn’t have known it by looking at his 23/20 TD-to-interceptions ratio from last year, however.

To be fair, brother Peyton didn’t improve in the aforementioned ratio until his sixth year in the league. I guess the Manning’s see no uniforms, just football players early on in their career. That is, until they finally come to the realization that it would behoove them not to do that. I guess we’ll see if Eli makes the leap in that department this year.

Buffalo Bills

Not only did then-rookie-QB Trent Edwards impress the Bills enough to get a firm grip on the franchise QB role, he also did so against a pretty difficult schedule. Four of his 10 starts were against a top-10 passing defense, and the remaining six weren’t what you could call a cakewalk either.

Going into his second year and now well established in his offense, we could see Trent Edwards have a very successful year against what appears to be a glass-half-full type schedule.

Jacksonville Jaguars

A strong case could be made for the Jaguars' possession of the single, toughest schedule last year, passing-wise. Nine of the team’s 16 games were against top pass-stopping units, and seven of those were started by breakout QB David Garrard.

Unless last season was a complete mirage, Garrard’s impressive performance last year has solidified his role as the Jaguars new leader and an ultra-safe fantasy selection.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints didn’t get off to a very good start last year but eventually finished strong in vintage 2006 Saints fashion. With everyone all healed and the exciting, if a bit enigmatic, with Jeremy Shockey now at tight end, the Saints are primed to strike fear in the hearts of opposing defenses yet again this year.

The glue that holds it all together could easily be stripped should the team be bitten by the pesky injury bug yet again this season.

Denver Broncos

Not only did Jay Cutler progress leaps and bounds in 2007, he did so while being challenged by one of the 10 toughest passing defense schedules of last year.

While there are still some tough games on tap for the offense this year, Cutler has proven that he has the skills and intelligence to prepare and execute his offense, despite facing such challenging opposition.

Detroit Lions

The Lions find themselves in a similar boat as they were in last year, with the yearly schedule. With everyone and their plumber agreeing that the Lions will drop-off in the wake of Mike Martz’s departure, the passing game remains largely the same.

Although the offense thrived under Martz, Kitna surely believes he can keep it going. Hey, at least the guy shoots for the moon. Fore if you miss, then you shall end up in the stars, drifting through space with minimal oxygen.

Seattle Seahawks

The fact that they have a favorable passing schedule in 2008 is probably the only good thing to happen to the Seahawks all year long. Poor things. Deion Branch and Bobby Engram, arguably the teams top two receivers, are out for significant periods of time with injuries.

Shaun Alexander is gone, with his better days eclipsed by his sudden and unexpected falloff. Luckily for the Seahawks, they have a promising young group of wide receivers ready to step up and fill the Seahawks (and perhaps your fantasy teams?) needs.

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Tier Three - Fairly easy

Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders, Washington Redskins, Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts, Philadelphia Eagles

Players that may benefit the most from the schedule: Whomever wins the Bears' starting QB job (?), JaMarcus Russell, Javon Walker, Jason Campbell, Redskins coach Jim Zorn, Matt Leinart, Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning

Chicago Bears

An easy schedule against passing defenses is far outweighed by the fact that the Bears don’t have anyone to cash in on it. Weird, that hasn’t happened before. Oh wait..

Oakland Raiders

With the biggest knock against the Raiders' offense being JaMarcus Russell’s learning curve, the fact that the team has an easy schedule for him to learn to throw against is definitely a plus.

If Javon Walker can bounce back and Justin Fargas was indeed the real deal, then this could be a halfway decent offense. Please note the term halfway decent and apply it to your fantasy team as you wish.

Washington Redskins

It’s common sense to say that an easy schedule is a good thing when a team is learning a new offense. It’s also a good thing when the QB that runs the offense is in a make-or-break year that will help determine whether or not the team will move in a different direction.

Players have a tendency to play to the best of their ability when their career is on the line. Funny how that works...

Arizona Cardinals

While I wouldn’t recommend drafting him unless you were in a dynasty/keeper league, or a sociopathic risk-taker, Matt Leinart is in the best possible position to succeed. Never mind that his receivers are Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, but the schedule is the best it may ever be for him.

Also, Edgerrin James likely won’t be around and/or productive for much longer after this year.

Indianapolis Colts

With questions being posed of Marvin Harrison’s status everywhere but Indiana, the fact that the Colts have such a favorable schedule can only help what many are predicting will be Harrison’s imminent demise.

If he can stay healthy, there’s really no reason that he can’t play close to his former form. Don’t fall into the traps of all the doomsayers. For the obligatory Peyton Manning reference, Manning will have more time to kill with a softer schedule, which will leave him with more free time.

He can then use that to make the commercials we all know and love to curse aloud about. That’s my last Peyton/commercial joke for a while, I promise.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles will have a similar schedule to last year, which was, of course, Brian Westbrook’s season for the ages. It also saw a healthy bounce-back year from Donovan McNabb. All in all, it’s good news for all involved, as long as they can all fend off the injury bug.

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Tier Two - Incredibly easy

Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings, Miami Dolphins, St. Louis Rams, Green Bay Packers

Players that may benefit the most from the schedule: Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, Tarvaris Jackson, Chad Pennington, Marc Bulger’s ribs, Aaron Rodgers

Carolina Panthers

It always helps to have an easy schedule when your passing attack is going to be led by a QB who just had offseason surgery on his elbow. With Delhomme getting up there in years, and his elbow certain to play a major role in his ability to throw the ball, many have been iffy about him, due to the health concerns.

However, with the easy schedule, the return of Muhsin Muhammad, and the mere presence of Steve Smith, the Panthers are a successful Tommy-John surgery away from returning to 2004 status.

Minnesota Vikings

With Bernard Berrian giving the Vikings' offense a threat to take a bit of attention off of Adrian Peterson, the team is perhaps a Tarvaris-Jackson-learning curve away from the Super Bowl. The schedule isn’t likely to hinder his progression, and if he can improve upon his game like he’s shown he could, then 2008 might be the year that the Vikings become a serious contender.

Then again, the trendy offseason sleeper picks always seem to find a way to underachieve in spite of all the hype. So there’s that.

Miami Dolphins

Chad Pennington won’t be near the top of any QB ranking lists. That much is certain. But I can’t help but shake the feeling that the Brett Favre saga has severely overshadowed the fact that Chad Pennington is perfectly capable of being an effective QB when he’s healthy.

Facing such an easy bunch of pass-defense teams this year (especially when compared with what he faced last year), Pennington very well could go on and have a surprisingly good year. Never underestimate a man with something to prove.

St. Louis Rams

The Rams had a tremendously easy schedule last year, but it didn’t really matter. Marc Bulger didn’t have his starting RB or a serviceable-at-best offensive line for nearly all of 2007.

With nothing but his arm and quick judgment to rely on, Bulger could have been playing against the Little Giants and still probably had some trouble. With everyone now healthy, and Stephen Jackson sure to return, eventually (seriously, what is the Rams front office trying to accomplish exactly?), Bulger will be able to take advantage of the cupcake of a schedule the team has this year.

Green Bay Packers

With all of the hubbub of the Brett Favre soap opera and all of the parties involved, not a lot of people have noted that Aaron Rodgers finds himself with quite a first-year schedule to play through.

Even if it was brought up, it would likely be replaced with breaking news detailing what Favre had for lunch at Camp Mangini that day. Ew, tuna fish?

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Tier One - Creampuff

New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Players that may benefit the most from the schedule: Brett Favre, Jerricho Cotchery, Laveranues Coles, Mike Martz’s offense, Jeff Garcia, Joey Galloway

New York Jets

Is it a coincidence that the two teams Brett Favre was choosing between had the easiest and third-easiest schedules against passing defenses in the NFL? Maybe I’m over thinking things here, but it’s worth throwing out there.

San Francisco 49ers

Mike Martz finds himself in charge of the NFL’s worst offense of last year. On the other side of things, they have the easiest passing-defense schedule, second only to our final team. It will be interesting to see which extreme will prevail over the other. Perhaps somewhere in the middle?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Who cares if Jeff Garcia is 62-years old? With a creampuff schedule for the second year in a row, Garcia will have every opportunity to exhibit his fountain of youth yet again this coming year.

Fantasy-wise though, I’d say it’s maybe best to admire such an event from afar rather than banking on it for the sake of your team. Such a decision could result in several broken appliances.

Missed Part 1: Opposing Run Defense? Then click here.

[Originally posted at Football Crack]

An Explanation for Mike Shanahan's Running Back Syndrome

Josh Galligan — Sun, 10 Aug 2008 16:37:52 -0400

Presently, fantasy owners run away from Denver's running backs like the ballcarriers have Ebola. You know, the disease where you bleed from every orifice? Yeah, that one.

This is because in the past few years, Mike Shanahan has decided that his team shall use a running back by committee, even when it does not make sense in the way it is being used.

To be fair, Shanahan was the trendsetter in regards to the current committee running-back situations we’re now faced with. Or shall I say, burdened with. Not that knowing the running back’s backup and backup’s backup is a bad thing.

It’s just that if we didn’t need to, we could be spending that research time on other things like you know, our families.

Most of all that is common knowledge.

What isn’t common knowledge is why it has happened in the first place. I’ve never heard an explanation, nor could I find one with specifically phrased searches through Google.

So, in the interests of fantasy owners that have met their downfall thanks to a committee backfield in Denver, I embarked on a quest. I did not know where it would take me, nor did I know what I would find. I just knew that it was a quest worth taking.

I’m not promising an answer to the whole thing, but as you’ll find at the end, a logical suggestion.

THE MILE-HIGH RUNNING-BACK FACTORY

In the wake of Terrell Davis’s retirement, right before the 2002 season, the Denver Broncos became known as a running-back factory. It seemed that no matter who the running back was, they would rack up at least 1,200 yards and a half dozen TDs.

That stat, surprisingly, was the minimum for that time and was set by Reuben Droughns in 2004. Yes, you read that correctly. Had you forgotten that Droughns was actually relevant once upon a time? It’s understandable.

Clinton Portis quickly altered Broncos fans‘ opinions that Davis could not be replaced in 2002. At least the opinion that 1,508 rushing yards 15 TDs was a suitable replacement.

Portis would follow his breakout rookie season with an even better one in 2003. He would rush for more yards (1,591), but one less touchdown (14). Oh yeah, Portis also played in only 13 games in 2003, compared with all 16 the previous year. It puts the whole thing into better perspective, I think.

Following (what would soon come to be) an annual decimation of the team by the Indianapolis Colts, 41-10 in the Wild Card Round, Portis would be traded to the Washington Redskins for shutdown corner Champ Bailey.

The trade made sense because the passing game had needed help, but many wondered how the running game would fare now that Terrell Davis’ worthy successor had been traded away.

The answer to that question would lie in a Broncos fullback named Reuben Droughns. After rushing for 1,240 yards and six TDs, many declared Shanahan a genius in his scouting of running backs.

Droughns would go onto Cleveland after just one year as a starter in Denver. There, he would put up another respectable season (1,232 yards and two TDs) in 2005 and then fall off the face of the earth. At least in terms of being a starting RB.

Once Droughns was shipped to Cleveland, that was it in terms of having just one starting RB. Over the next three years, Shanahan’s approach to the running game would shift dramatically. He would use at least two, but sometimes three, different RBs throughout the season.

A NEW PHILOSOPHY

While it’s impossible to pinpoint exactly where Shanahan shifted towards this new mentality, my best guess is Week One in 2005 at Dolphins Stadium.

Mike Anderson had gotten the start and was likely primed to be the starter for the rest of the year, except that he got roughed up, bruised his ribs, and effectively changed the landscape of fantasy football for the remainder of time. Way to go, Mike.

Into the game stepped Tatum Bell, a rookie out of Oklahoma State. Although the team was shellacked 34-10 by the Dolphins, and Bell only rushed for 47 yards on 13 carries with no TDs, the team's backfield was never quite the same. Bell had to have done something.

Opinions here can vary. Either you can think Shanahan was going to use both Anderson and Bell from the get go or you can think Anderson’s injury and something about Bell’s performance in that game changed his perception somehow. One would make sense while the other would not. At least not as much.

Take into account the rest of what happened. In 2006, with Anderson gone and Bell poised to be the starter, Shanahan would give more than half of Tatum’s carries to an un-drafted rookie free agent named Mike Bell.

The fact that they both had the last name Bell only proved to frustrate fantasy owners who had banked on Tatum, but not on this un-drafted Mike character. It was here that the legend of Mike Shanahan not being a big a fan of fantasy football would begin. It would only multiply exponentially in 2007.

With Tatum Bell gone, Mike Shanahan decided not to give his only remaining Bell any shot at the starting job at all. This is because the team had signed free agent Travis Henry and two more un-drafted rookie FA’s, Selvin Young and Andre Hall. Hey, I never said this whole thing was going to make sense.

Although Henry and Young would split the majority of the carries, Shanahan designated Hall worthy of his own 44 carries. The ordeal was so traumatizing for some fantasy owners that many swore off Denver Broncos RBs for the rest of their lives. Many have stayed true to that claim to this very day.

WHERE WE STAND CURRENTLY

With both Selvin Young and Andre Hall still on the team, Shanahan went ahead and gave the go-ahead to draft another rookie RB in the fifth round of the draft. He was out of Arizona State and his name is Ryan Torain.

Unfortunately for Ryan, he dislocated his elbow, did some ligament damage to it, and will likely miss three months minimum.

While I would not even think about suggesting that this injury was incurred due to the mass amount of karma directed at the Broncos' RB situation from fantasy football owners who had put stake in them, I could go ahead and say that it may have opened up an opportunity for Shanahan to go back to a one-back system.

Or if you’ve already solved the mystery, you will realize that 2008 will just become another chapter in the wondrous story that is Mike Shanahan’s running-back depth chart management. Here’s a Scooby Snack for you.

THE THEORY THAT EXPLAINS IT ALL

When you read the history of the whole ordeal, as I have so succinctly put it, and then sit back and think about it, it will likely just dawn on you. It’s really the only thing that would make sense next to Mike Shanahan actually trying and enjoying his toying with the game of fantasy football. Since that reason has never really sat right with me, the new one I’ve come up with makes a lot more sense.

Think about it.

What other possibility could there be for someone to go all-in on not one, but TWO un-drafted rookie RBs? And then have it work for them? And THEN proceed to draft another rookie in the fifth round of the very next draft?

Why on earth would someone do that? I don’t care how much he dislikes fantasy football, I don’t think he’s going to involve a whole draft selection in order to mess give in to his hatred.

We’ve all come to the conclusion that Mike Shanahan is a supreme evaluator of RB talent. That much is certain. But why would he just not use one back? Why use multiple ones year after year, especially after having had so many successful years with just one starting RB? The answer?

The can of Coke is always hall-full for Mike Shanahan.

He’s an optimist.

An optimist with a Hall of Fame eye for RB talent, but an optimist nonetheless.

Fantasy Football Extravaganza: The Top-20 QBs

Josh Galligan — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 02:51:52 -0400

I was going to make this a top-30 list, like the running-back edition, but ended up not having too much fun digging through the dregs of the league’s signal-callers in order to rank the late 20.

Always one to alter things on the fly if it will convenience me, I cut the list down to the top 20. My temples have since thanked me for it.

As always, enjoy and feel free to question my sanity in your replies!

20. Matt Leinart (ARI)

Despite having a man 12 years his senior as the only other option at quarterback, Matt Leinart’s position as the Cardinals starter is not set in stone. Once it finally dawns on Leinart that he is indeed an NFL quarterback, he has the skills and weapons to succeed.

All he needs to do is put the work in both on the field and in the film room. I mean, he has Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin as receivers! Either Leinart claims the starter spot as his own this year, or he replaces Reggie Bush’s status as the highest-profile bust of the 2006 draft.

19. Vince Young (TEN)

Even though he regressed last year, Vince Young didn’t have much to work with, either. It appeared he realized some of the things he got away with in Texas and his rookie season might not work as well anymore.

With former offensive coordinator Norm Chow now gone, and his rapport with his promising wideout duo of Justin Gage and Roydell Williams growing all the while, we’ll likely get a real glimpse of the path his career is taking this year.

18. Jason Campbell (WAS)

Apparently realizing their receiving corps needed an upgrade, the Redskins attempted to trade for off-the-field diva and touchdown-celebration extraordinaire Chad Johnson right before the draft. When that failed, they instead selected two wide receivers and one tight end in the second round to add to their West Coast offense and, more importantly, Jason Campbell’s arsenal.

If Campbell can pick up the West Coast quickly enough, he will have the tools and be given the throws to make a huge leap in what will be his second full year as a starter.

17. Jon Kitna (DET)

With the departure of Mike Martz, many of the Jon Kitna supporters have mysteriously fallen by the wayside. He’s likely to get fewer attempts than last year, but not dramatically so, due to the mix of inexperience and underachievement that makes up the backfield.

If the offensive line can manage to avoid repeating as the league-leaders in sacks allowed, Kitna has some lethal options on offense. He could surprise everyone for the second year in a row and not be a bust. Let’s hope he shoots for 14 wins this year.

16. Philip Rivers (SD)

Antonio Gates has accounted for nearly 30 percent of Philip Rivers' career passing yards. While Gates obviously won’t be out for more than a few games, it will be interesting to see how Rivers begins the season without his favorite target and safety net right there with him.

Rivers also has his own health to worry about, coming off offseason ACL surgery. If everyone can stay health, and Rivers can focus on things like getting the ball to Chris Chambers more instead of jawing with the fans, he could return to 2006 form. If not? Well, those are the types of gambles you take in fantasy football, friend.

15. Eli Manning (NYG)

Unless you're in a no-interceptions league or have been living under a rock the past year, you probably noticed that, despite being a Super Bowl-champion quarterback, Eli Manning didn’t quite look it during the regular season.

A Super Bowl win could very well have sparked something in Eli and cause him to play like he did in the postseason. Or he could revert to the old Eli, throw just as many picks as touchdowns, and appear perfectly OK that his own receiver just cursed him out for three minutes, even though he was the one who fudged the route.

Only time will tell, but is it too much to ask to see some intensity? Drink a Red Bull! Huff some flavored oxygen! Look alive out there!

14. Matt Schaub (HOU)

The Falcons must have seriously kicked themselves in the @#$ when the Vick saga finally opened the door for Matt Schaub to start, except that he had been shipped out to Houston. Talk about bad timing!

Despite injuries to nearly his entire body, Schaub showed last year that, when healthy, he is the real deal. Key words there are "when" and "healthy." If you don’t mind the risks, Schaub’s upside is tempting.

13. Marc Bulger (STL)

To the poorly rounded fan, Marc Bulger's 2007 stats may look atrocious and send them running in the other direction (2,392 passing yards, 11 TDs, 15 INTs). However, to those of us with NFL Sunday Ticket, those stats are actually quite impressive.

Stephen Jackson missed most of the year, that much is common knowledge. So is the fact the Rams' offensive line suffered a black plague-esque injury bug. Bulger may have been better off taking his chances with stationary practice pads in hopes they would at least slow the pass-rush down a bit.

You see, for those of us who watched most of his games—the fact he even put up those numbers and didn’t have to retire is a wonder. With the offensive line all healthy again, and Stephen Jackson one bill-day away from reporting back to camp, Bulger can actually focus on completing passes instead of what his emergency room co-pay is.

12. Jay Cutler (DEN)

Even with Brandon Marshall suspended for the first few games, Jay Cutler should start off his second full season just fine, causing Broncos fans to cringe at the mere thought that they once went into an NFL season with Jake Plummer manning the offense.

Cutler has proven, after last year's performance, that he was indeed the hidden golden ticket of the 2006 quarterback draft class. The Cardinals and Titans have been left with just Wonka bars. Delicious, no doubt, but not the grand prize that is a golden ticket!

With potential question marks at receiver, besides Brandon Marshall, Cutler will likely rely on the up-and-coming tight end Tony Scheffler (and, to a lesser extent, Brandon Stokley) until both Marshall is back and has become well-acquainted with newbie’s Keary Colbert and Darrel Jackson.

11. Derek Anderson (CLE)

Derek Anderson took everyone by surprise in 2007, and if you claim otherwise, then you, sir, are a bull-faced liar. Surrounded by one of the most potent offenses in the game, Anderson has a weapon to utilize in almost every conceivable offensive situation.

Although he tailed off at the end of the season, big-game jitters and some inconsistent play from the rest of the team contributed to his poor performances. Anderson didn’t appear too worried with Brady Quinn waiting in the wings last year, but it will remain to be seen if he’ll handle it that way after a media circus and 23-hour coverage on ESPN ensues after his first poor performance.

10. David Garrard (JAC)

Many people questioned Jack Del Rio’s decision to go with David Garrard over Byron Leftwich at the start of last year. After guaranteeing it was the wrong move, telling everyone to write it down, these people showed us all why they work behind a desk and not for an actual NFL team when Garrard excelled and Leftwich eventually imploded in Atlanta.

Although many people describe a conservative quarterback like it’s a bad thing, Garrard has both the poise to know when to go for a big play and the skill to make it happen.

9. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)

Not only has Matt Hasselbeck proven to be one of the funniest players in the game, he has also proven to be a solid fantasy option for what seems like forever. With Deion Branch likely out for most of the season, Hasselbeck finds himself tasked with once again throwing to a questionable group of wideouts.

At least this year the Seahawks will have a running game, no matter how many backs are part of it. If he were a lesser quarterback, there would be cause for concern. However, Hasselbeck is one of the few signal-callers no one really doubts, despite not having a clear No. 1 option.

8. Brett Favre (NYJ)

Although we’d like to believe otherwise, now that Brett Favre’s been traded to New York, all of the Favre coverage isn’t going anywhere. In fact, Vegas has been rumored to have set the number of Brett Favre mentions this year on NFL Live at 300. That’s roughly two separate mentions per show—and people are taking the over!

Blatantly failed attempts at humor aside, the Jets were the best landing spot next to Tampa Bay. I don’t think anyone will argue the Jets will provide Favre with more weapons than he would have had in Tampa. You can now begin reassessing the entire Jets offense in regard to how positively affected they will be with Favre’s arrival. I, for one, say Thomas Jones will benefit the most.

7. Donovan McNabb (PHI)

All throughout his career, save for the time with Terrell Owens that we’re supposed to pretend never happened, McNabb has never had many high-quality receivers. At least not on a consistent basis.

The major knock against McNabb is that he gets injured. A lot. Usually, it’s not that bad of an idea when drafting him to just hope for 12 games—with anything more just being extra.

Although Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown aren’t considered elite receivers by any means, they did prove to be effective targets for McNabb last season. It also doesn’t help having perhaps the best receiving back in the game—especially one coming off of a 2,000-plus-yards-from-scrimmage season.

It could be argued that McNabb is perhaps the biggest starting-quarterback injury risk this year—however, it could also be argued that if he stays healthy, he could put up MVP-type numbers. Ah—decisions, decisions.

6. Carson Palmer (CIN)

Despite being on the team whose nickname is often associated with being arrested, Carson Palmer continues to put up quality numbers. Even last year, when he barely had a running game, he threw for 4,131 yards and 26 touchdowns.

Yes, he also tossed 20 picks, which obviously isn’t good, but the guy is only human. Now, with Ben Utecht as the starting tight end, Palmer will find himself in a situation he has never really experienced before: He has a TE who can catch the ball!

While all signs point toward another solid season, it would behoove you to take the lingering time bomb that is Chad Johnson into account. On one hand, Johnson could realize he was being selfish and goes through the season in typical Ocho-Cinco fashion (1,400 yards, 8 TDs).

On the other hand, you could have the "Terrell Owens Saga Part Two: Now Featuring Chad Johnson" occurring. Say what you want about T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but if Chad Johnson ends up leaving Cincinnati, then it will definitely reflect itself significantly in Palmer’s numbers.

5. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

Although he threw for fewer yards than the previous year, Ben Roethlisberger nearly doubled his touchdown total (from 18 in 2006 to 32 in 2007). With an offense that remains largely the same, save for the departure of guard Alan Faneca, it is not out of the question that the arrival of Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed could perhaps further increase that touchdown total.

Of course, that would mean he'd have to stay on par with his performance from last year, and his play has differed from year to year. This could be blamed on his off-year in 2006, and thinking otherwise may be overanalyzing it.

4. Drew Brees (NO)

After a horrendous start to the year, which had many fantasy owners begrudging the reasons they took him, Drew Brees got right back on track and actually finished with similar numbers to 2006, albeit with seven more interceptions.

It’s scary to think what he could have posted had he started the season like the Drew Brees we know and love (or hate, if he’s burned your team). If Deuce McAllister can come back healthy, and Devery Henderson can step it up, then we may again see the offensive firepower the Saints exhibited in 2006 during their failed run to the Super Bowl.

And that would be a good thing for Drew Brees owners.

3. Peyton Manning (IND)

It’s eventually going to happen. Peyton Manning will begin to regress. While I’m not saying he’s not going to have a great season, I am saying there’s a chance the Peyton Manning of yore may be aging into the Peyton Manning in the twilight of his prime.

Although he had knee surgery out of the blue, it’s likely not to be a serious factor. Marvin Harrison, however, is approaching the age of 37 and is coming off of a limited injury year. Is it out of the question to think the decline of Marvin Harrison may mean a decline in Peyton Manning, as well?

Sure, Reggie Wayne is great and can replace Harrison should he continue to have a decreased role, but the scariest thing about the Colts these past few years has been the Wayne/Harrison combo.

While Anthony Gonzalez showed some promise, he’s no Wayne. The Colts may need to lean even more on there running game, which would mean a decreased role for Manning and, thus, a decrease in his fantasy points.

2. Tony Romo (DAL)

Despite his playoff failures, Tony Romo has emerged as a fantasy-football superstar. Not only does he score you points on the field, but he’ll also be on TV when you're out somewhere and you can nudge whomever your with and say, "Hey, he's on my fantasy team."

Does anyone else feel incredibly weird whenever they say that out loud to someone? If they don't really know what fantasy sports is, it sounds awfully creepy.

Back on topic, Romo's got it all. Although Terry Glenn was effective when he played, his departure will not likely be missed. Nor will his injuries. Patrick Crayton has emerged as a legitimate threat opposite Terrell Owens, and rookie Felix Jones brings some of what Julius Jones brought to the table and then some.

T.O. is getting up there in age, but it’s highly likely you’ve seen him shirtless at some point or other the past few years. Although he is approaching 35-years-old, in Terrell Owens fitness years, that’s about 27. So there’s no real reason to worry yet.

It’s highly unlikely Romo will put up the same numbers as last year, but it’s also unlikely he won’t put up some comparably good ones.

1. Tom Brady (NE)

I’m not even going to explain this one. If you don’t know why he’s No. 1, well, then, just don’t be going and wagering any money on your fantasy leagues. Actually, don’t be wagering your money on anything. Period.

Fantasy Football Extravaganza: Top-30 Running Backs

Josh Galligan — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 13:28:48 -0400

With approximately 75 fantasy football magazines currently available at any given supermarket and the preseason officially underway, it's safe to assume that the fantasy football season has officially begun.

In order to get myself ready, and because I’m so nice, I have ranked the top 30 skill-position players and then provided the in-depth commentary on why I have done so.

Will my rankings differ from yours or many of the other rankings out there? Uh, is an apple different than a stapler?

Opinions on all rankings will vary, but just remember that all of the rankings out there are just that, opinion and speculation. The rankings reflect the author's knowledge and, most importantly, his gut.

The major benefit we get from reading someone else's rankings is the discussions that follow. Some will have you nodding your head, while others will have you wishing the guy was in your money league because he would basically be a bye week.

You'll all likely be doing so after you read who's No. 1, but I'm ready to defend it. I just think he's going to have the best year out of anyone on the list.

As always, enjoy and feel free to disagree vehemently while calling for my head in your replies!

30. Jonathan Stewart (CAR)

Although my support for DeAngelo Williams is well documented, even I can’t deny that the talented rookie will win the Panthers' starting job. He has power, he has speed, and he apparently has the support of nearly every single person in the Panthers' organization, save for Williams himself.

Barring a major setback in his recovery from a turf-toe injury, Stewart should be the new rusher in town, as well as provide your team with a decent amount of fantasy points.

29. Julius Jones (SEA)

Even though Jones never did stand out in the Cowboys' offense, playing second fiddle to Marion “The Barbarian” Barber and all, a change of scenery and a new offense that will favor the running game might be just what Julius needs.

T.J. Duckett will take most of the goal-lines carries away, but Jones should be given the bulk of the overall workload. He’s definitely an upside pick, so don’t put too much stake in him, or you may regret it when he puts up similar stats from when he was in Dallas.

28. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)

Regardless of Willie Parker’s rankings free-fall due to his broken leg and low 2007 TD total, he will still be the go-to guy in Pittsburgh. Mendenhall, on the other hand, is an upside pick with not a lot of risk since he’s going to be getting most of the goal-line carries and spelling an often fragile Parker, anyway.

27. LenDale White (TEN)

Despite playing in an offense with hardly any passing game, White sprung upon the scene last year with 1,108 yards and seven TDs. With this being Vince Young’s second year with his primary receivers, White should enjoy an increased amount of defenses dropping more people back to defend the pass.

Or at least that’s what the Titans organization hopes. Regardless, even though rookie Chris Johnson may spell him, White should see the majority of carries and goal-line attempts.

26. Thomas Jones (NYJ)

The fact that T.J. had a total of two TDs last year has overshadowed that he managed to rack up 1,119 yards behind one of the worst lines in the league. The offseason signings of Alan Faneca and Damien Woody should ensure that he will at least have a competent offensive line.

It’s a risky pick because he’s either going to excel with his improved blockers or flop and show everyone that he just doesn’t have what it takes to be a starter. That decision is up to you.

25. Darren McFadden (OAK)

Despite being touted as the best back in the NFL draft, McFadden is not the top back in most running-back rankings. This is likely due to the fact that McFadden will be lining up behind JaMarcus Russell, who is still technically a rookie himself.

Since it takes inexperienced quarterbacks a lot longer to get acquainted with the game than their running-back counterparts, McFadden will get a plethora of carries and an official diploma from the NFL’s rookie running-back university.

24. Fred Taylor (JAX)

The past couple years have seen Fred Taylor do the exact opposite of what everyone had predicted him to do, with that opposite being him producing. Taylor has had more than 1,100 yards and at least five TDs in each of his last two seasons. While it’s hard to imagine him just suddenly dropping off, he is 32-years old and it is going to happen eventually. The question is, when?

With Maurice Jones Drew entering his third season and maturing all the while, Taylor may still be productive this year but not enough to warrant a key RB spot on your roster. He is a solid and safe late-round pick. Do with it what you will.

23. Matt Forte (CHI)

With news of the release of team castoff and Ricky Williams-esque Cedric Benson, Forte’s stock has soared. Even before he was the unanimous No. 1 back on the roster, Forte had created a buzz that was not heard during the draft due to his emergence from Conference USA.

Although the Bears themselves have proclaimed the rookie as their starter, he still finds himself on the Bears' offense, which has question marks at quarterback, wide receiver, and pretty much every single position except for running back.

So, despite him getting the majority of all the carries, don’t expect his rookie year to be Adrian Peterson-esque. Think more along the lines of a poor man's rookie Marshawn Lynch.

22. Michael Turner (ATL)

How Michael Turner will turn out can likely be put in a better perspective when you take into account his performance last year when he filled in for an injured L.T. in the playoffs.

Although 3.8-yards per carry isn’t necessarily bad, it was a bit worse than his career average that he’d racked up by shredding fatigued defenses as Tomlinson’s backup until that point. That was then.

Now, Turner finds himself on a Falcons team that is in the process of rebuilding with inexperience at many key parts of the offense. Although you wouldn’t know it by looking at his contract, Turner’s quarterback Matt Ryan is actually a rookie, who will go through the learning curves that plague all rookie signal callers.

21. Edgerrin James (ARI)

Edge has officially turned the magical yet dreadful age of 30, which is the benchmark age for when running backs will begin to decline. After a largely disappointing 2006, considering his success in Indianapolis, Edge improved slightly in 2007 in yards, average and TDs.

Although 1,224 yards and seven TDs isn’t necessarily bad, it is safe to say that it may be very close to his ceiling now that he’s turned the big three-oh. Even with promise of a more balanced attack, the Cardinals' offensive line is still unfortunately the same and it is likely Edgerrin’s stats will stay that way as well.

20. Willie Parker (PIT)

With Parker’s 11 TD decline from 2006 into 2007, breaking his leg late in the season didn’t help his fantasy stock. The arrival of rookie Rashard Mendenhall also didn’t bode well for his future TD total either.

What Parker does bring to the table is the yardage that he racks up. He is still an incredibly skilled rusher that can put up big numbers on the ground, no matter how TD-less or injury prone his season may be.

19. Brandon Jacobs (NYG)

The heir to Tiki Barber’s throne after his retirement, Jacobs proved he could handle the job when healthy. Unfortunately for Jacobs, so did Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw’s recent court troubles could get him suspended if the event in question happened post-draft.

A Bradshaw suspension could be all Jacobs needs to claim the starters spot once and for all, so it would behoove you to keep an eye on the situation.

18. Jamal Lewis (CLE)

Even though the Browns' offense and, more importantly, offensive line have largely remained the same, many are still doubting Lewis can repeat his 2007 success. Without a suitable backup or a threat to steal some of his goal-line carries, the only thing that could stop Lewis from continuing upon last year’s success is either injury or age.

Lewis is approaching 30, and the enormous amount of carries he has on his odometer has to take its toll at some point. It’s hard to imagine his decline happening so quickly and suddenly without some type of injury, though.

17. Lawrence Maroney (NE)

Being the RB on one of the best passing games of all time doesn’t leave you in a position to get tons of carries. Nor does it help having a coach that likes to spell his backfield every two downs or so.

Entering his third season, and with Kevin Faulk likely to see a decreased role, Maroney is a prime candidate to breakout this year. Unfortunately, “breaking out” for a running back on the Patriots' offense means about 1,100 yards and eight TDs.

On the bright side, that’s still better than Rudi Johnson, who you targeted last year.

16. Reggie Bush (NO)

Reggie Bush is a classic case of too much hype due to college performance. Although Bush has proven he is a worthy complementary rusher and a skilled receiving back, the Barry Sanders-like expectations have left many disappointed after his first two seasons in the league.

With his rushing skills likely to improve over time, it may just take him a few more years until he’s a suitable starter. Even in his current complementary situation, his rushing yards and receiving yards combined equal enough points to make him a worthy target in your draft.

Not to mention his ceiling would have him turning into a Brian Westbrook type back. Not bad. I think we can finally chill on comparing Hall of Fame players to rookies that are being drafted, though. No?

15. Earnest Graham (TB)

Graham proved to be one of the most valuable, out-of-the-blue, waiver-wire pickups of the 2008 season. The only option after injuries to Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman, Graham nearly rumbled himself to 1,000 yards, finishing instead with 898 and 10 TDs.

With Warrick Dunn’s return to Tampa, Graham will likely lose some carries, but he can easily claim the starting spot if he can prove that last year wasn’t a fluke. 175 fantasy points if you can guess correctly!

14. Ronnie Brown (MIA)

Although his recovery from an ACL tear is a major concern, Brown benefits from sustaining the injury early in the season last year, as well as returning to a vastly improved Dolphins offense.

With Ricky Williams back in town, he likely won’t need to carry all of the load immediately, as long as Williams stays away from the reefer. Brown is still a risky pick, but as 602 yards and seven TDs in seven games last year showed, not one without a potential hefty reward.

13. Willis McGahee (BAL)

Even though the Ravens have major question marks on offense, the rushing game is not one of them. A top-notch rusher and capable receiver, McGahee should top 300 carries for the first time since 2005, due to the subpar and inexperienced options at quarterback.

Although his new and improved ACL will be tested under such a workload, if he can handle the strain and put up his usual numbers, then his fantasy numbers will be just fine. Even if he is in on one of the worst offensive units in the game.

12. Larry Johnson (KC)

A slow start, poor passing game, and foot injury all contributed to Johnson’s worst season as a starter last year. Even if he can avoid the slow start and injuries this year, the Chiefs still have no passing attack, and the shoddy offensive line remains the same.

Although he‘ll get his carries, he will also be the focal point of every defense the team plays. Good thing we’ve seen what he can do before, so you can make an educated decision on whether or not to take the gamble. The upside is high, although the downside is low. Take your pick.

11. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)

Even with Fred Taylor still going strong, Jones-Drew should slowly but surely take over primary-back duties. With a rushing average of a bit more than five-yards per carry in his first two years, superb hands out of the backfield, and game-breaking ability, Jones-Drew’s low touches are overshadowed by his supreme upside.

Whenever he takes over the reigns in Jacksonville and gets more time on the field, expect his value to skyrocket up the charts. Even if this year is not his year, he still pumps out a solid amount of fantasy points and presents upside that is hard to pass up on.

10. Ryan Grant (GB)

Grant won biggest out-of-the-blue honors in 2007 and helped many teams win championships, if they had the clarity to pick him. I, for one, ended up taking Priest Holmes over Grant with my last waiver-wire pick up in my keeper league. Suffice to say, I did not make the playoffs and will probably never forgive myself.

Grant placed a firm hold on the starter position with his end-of-the-season performances last year and isn’t realistically threatened by anyone, as long as he can continue production and stay away from injuries.

Therein lies the catch, however. The question is if Grant will be able to continue his breakout year last year and stay away from the injuries that can plague a starting RB. All aren’t huge concerns, but they are worth taking into account should you find yourself about to draft him.

9. Marion Barber (DAL)

Anyone with the nickname “The Barbarian” had to have earned it somewhere down the line, and it’s no surprise if you’ve seen Barber run. He is a powerful, agile back that doesn’t stop running until the whistle blows.

He has a reckless abandon for anything but positive yardage and, ultimately, the end zone. Even with Jerry Jones' favorite rookie Felix Jones being plugged into the offense and taking some carries away, Barber will be the goal-line back, and Barber will get the majority of the carries. You can’t be the best back on one of the best offenses in the league for nothing, you know.

8. Frank Gore (SF)

Gore’s 1,102 rushing yards, 436 receiving yards, and six total TDs isn’t very impressive at first glance, but take into account that he did it all on the worst offense in the league, and you’ve got yourself a better picture.

Gore was the only bright spot on an otherwise anemic 49ers offense last year. Having brought in Mike Martz to fix the offense has caused many people to declare Gore a sleeper for next year.

Since I still don’t know the correct definition of sleeper, all I will say is that if Martz can turn Alex Smith into a competent QB, then Gore has the talent to reap all of the rushing and receiving rewards a Martz system has to offer the starting RB.

His rushing total may go down, but his receptions, receiving yards, and total TDs should all go up. Cha-ching!

7. Marshawn Lynch (BUF)

Lynch is another RB that put up impressive stats on a not-so-impressive offense. In 13 games last year, he ran for 1,115 yards and seven TDs. With Trent Edwards looking to be everything J.P. Losman was not, Lynch at least has a suitable and blossoming passing game to take some attention away from him.

Rumor has it that the Bills will also be utilizing Lynch’s pass-catching skills a lot more this year, which, in layman‘s terms, means he‘ll be on the field even more. An injury last year is a small concern as to his dependability, but a year through the gauntlet should have taught him what it takes to be a starter in the NFL.

6. Clinton Portis (WAS)

Portis returned to pre-2006 form last year, finishing in the top-five for fantasy points accrued. A new system has turned some people off of Portis’ 2008 potential, but he is too talented a player not to utilize half of the offensive play-calling on.

Though he’ll likely see less carries, Portis should still fare just fine, especially considering his pass-catching skills. Portis caught 47 balls for 389 yards last year, and, although he’ll get less carries, he’ll get more receptions. It all evens out. Trust me.

5. Joseph Addai (IND)

Although Addai didn’t get as many yards as the top RBs last year, he more than compensated with his end-zone trips. Addai had 15 total TDs last year to pair with a solid 1,072 rushing yards and 364 reception yards.

He’s the top back on one of the most prolific offenses in the game, but his total upside keeps him out of the upper-echelon. If your looking for a safe pick that will have plenty of opportunities to score TDs, then Addai is your guy. Although enjoying Peyton Manning’s commercials also helps.

4. Stephen Jackson (STL)

In only 12 games and behind one of the worst offensive lines in the game, Jackson still managed to amass just over 1,000 yards and tack on six total TDs. With a healthy offensive line, and a more run-heavy offense, Jackson could very well return to pre-2007 form, where he was in the conversation for top running back overall.

He gives you rushing yards, he gives you reception yards, and he scores TDs. Injuries are a problem, due to last year, but should his offensive line remain healthy, he should cruise through the season with little to no problems.

3. Adrian Peterson (MIN)

As fantastic as Peterson was last year, and as much hype as he caused, I still find it hard to rank a back who’s had one fantastic year over a back that has had them for his entire seven-year career.

Peterson very well could prove that he’s the top running back in the game this year; however, his quarterback is questionable and his backup running back proved he could do a suitable job if given carries.

If A.P. can have an equally impressive year two, he’ll not only win over just me, he’ll likely win over the entire game of professional football. We’ll be watching!

2. LaDainian Tomlinson (SD)

Tomlinson has basically been a machine until he showed us his mortality with an MCL injury in the playoffs. He has been the face of fantasy football since he stormed upon the league in 2001 and with good reason: He can run, he can catch, he can score, and if you haven’t heard—he’s awfully classy!

With the birthday cake reading 29 this year, L.T. may finally see the decline we thought impossible for so many years. Even so, he’ll still likely put up top-notch numbers this year and many years down the road. His upside is way too high to not warrant him at least a No. 2 ranking.

1. Brian Westbrook (PHI)

After gaining sole control of the Eagles' RB spot sometime in 2005, Brian Westbrook has made a steady improvement in his game and, more importantly, his fantasy points. The year 2006 saw the biggest jump, while Westbrook showed us in 2007 then he can run for more yards, as well as improve on his already ridiculous reception numbers.

Going into 2008, he is the whole package. He does everything you could want from your featured fantasy running back, and he does it while proving his injury critics incorrect. Having played in 15 games in each of the last two seasons, Westbrook is slated for perhaps the finest season of his career in 2008.

At age 28, he could very well have his peak season this year. Even if he has peaked and he backpedals a bit, 240 fantasy points isn’t too bad for a RBs low side, is it? Is it? Hello? Is anyone still reading this?