Bleacher Report - Articles by Alex Geshwind

The Greatest Pitchers of Each Decade

Alex Geshwind — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 21:53:49 -0400

So, let me first explain what this list is. This is a list of the greatest pitchers of each decade. Not the greatest pitcher to pitch in a given decade, the greatest pitching year in a decade, or the greatest pitcher to have his best decade in a given decade. This is about the most dominating pitcher in Major League baseball during each decade from the 1890s to the 2000s. Each decade is evaluate only on the years during that decade, and nothing else. For example, when I picked the 1970s, I was only looking at 1970-1979. Why start in 1890? Pre-1890 baseball was far to un-organized, with most pitchers pitching a few really dominant years, and then burning out. So I decided to draw the line where I think organized baseball really became professional - 1890. One more note. In my opinion, the five best pitchers of all time are Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove, Cy Young, Pedro Martinez, and Greg Maddux. Several of these pitchers did not make the list. Not because they were blocked by someone else, but because they simply never had a decade that was better than anyone else's, or because their primes coincided with the end of one decade and the beginning of another. This was originally published at FantasyBullpen.com.

Begin Slideshow

What Happened to Delmon Young?

Alex Geshwind — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 06:08:12 -0400

Delmon Young had a pretty solid season last year, with a league average bat and a very good arm in right field making him a decent major league ballplayer. So what's so bad about that? The problem is, the often forgotten Young was once considered the top prospect in baseball—for about four years.

Let's start with some background on Delmon Young. Delmon is the hulking 6'3", 200 pound little brother of former Major League (and current Nationals AAA) slugger Dmitri Young.

He was born on Sept. 14, 1985, which makes him, quite surprisingly, only 23 right now. He was the No. 1 overall pick by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2003, a year after they took currently Major League star BJ Upton with the second overall pick.

Although he did not play that season, his prospect status was almost immediately evident. When Baseball America came out with it's rankings for the following season, he debuted on the list—at the No. 3 overall spot.

This isn't all that unusual, but it's still a high ranking for a player with no pro experience. For example, 2008 first rounder Tim Beckham debuted on the list at 28 this season. The two players ahead of him—Joe Mauer and BJ Upton—are both All-star caliber players. That shows you how highly Young was thought of at the time.

Scouts loved pretty much everything about Young. He had tremendous power to all fields, a great line drive swing, could hit for average and power, had good range and a great arm in the outfield, and could run the bases. He was considered a can't miss.

Young lived up to the hype initially. In his first pro season, 2004, he hit .322 with a 25 homers and 21 steals in the Sally league as an 18 year old. He had arrived on the professional scene in a big way.

When the Baseball America rankings for the 2005 season came out he was again in the third spot, behind Mauer and current Cy Young candidate Felix Hernandez.

His 2006 season was even better. The 19 year old started at AA Montgomery, his home town team, and raked big time. In 84 games he hit .336 with a near 1.000 OPS, 20 homers, and 71 RBI.

Despite playing just over half the season, he would go on to win the Southern League MVP award. Once promoted to AAA Durham at only 19 years old, Delmon struggled a bit. He only hit .285, and his .303 OBP left something to be desired. But he was 19 and already in AAA. Not much to complain about there.

By that point Delmon was the top prospect in Major League Baseball, and Baseball America rated him as such going into the 2006 season. As a 20 year old Baseball America went out on a limb—well not really—by saying he should be in the big leagues at some point that season. A scout was quoted as saying "He (Delmon) can do whatever he puts his mind to do."

But 2006 was a year of turmoil for Young. On Apr. 26 Young was called out on strikes. Unhappy with the call, Young stared down the umpire, then, while walking towards the dugout, tossed his bat at the umpire, hitting him in the chest.

The infamous tossed bat incident cost Young 50 games, and limited how well he could develop at the minor league level. On the season, he still hit .316, but his .341 OBP wasn't great and he only hit eight homers in limited playing time.

Still, he made his MLB debut that August, more than a month before his 21st birthday. In 126 at bats Young hit for a .317 average but again didn't draw enough walks. He did however hit a few homers, 9 doubles, and a triple to put up a decent SLG as a 20 year old in MLB. His future seemed bright.

Going into 2007 Baseball America ranked him as the third best prospect in MLB, his fourth top three appearance in four years in pro baseball.

His rookie season however did not go as planed. Although he continued to hit for a high average, .288 on the season, Young took only 26 walks on the season, and only hit 13 home runs. He finished the year with an OPS below the league average. Still he was 21 years old, and finished second in rookie of the year voting.

But the relationship between Young and the Rays was never easy. Young had attitude issues, and was upset with how long it took the Rays to move him up to the big leagues.

That winter, the guy who had been a top-three prospect in all of baseball every year of his pro career, was traded to the Twins, along with Brandon Harris, for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett.

Young did not arrive as a Major League player in 2008, but he did improve. He, yet again, hit for a good average (.290), and his BB rate improved, raising his OBP to a solid .336 level, approaching the levels he posted in AAA in 06.

It looked like he might be adjusting, at least in that respect. But his power was completely gone. In his first 60 games, Young did not go deep.

However from June 6 to the end of the season, Young picked it up a bit. Through the rest of the year, he hit .304/.346/.443 with 10 homers and 18 doubles. As a 22 year old, he was a high BA guy, with emerging power and improving plate discipline.

But this season he has regressed back to his early 2008 state, even worse. For the first time as a pro he can't even hit for a high batting average, hitting .256 on the season. His BB rate is down under three percent, his OBP under .300, and he's hit only 2 home runs so far.

The question is, how does a guy who was such a huge prospect for so long, a guy who had the scouting reports and minor league numbers to be a star, continue to struggle so greatly as a MLB player.

First let's start with the one big positive—the batting average. The way he maintains such a constantly high BA is hard to understand. He makes contact about 80 percent of the time—solid but nothing more. And he has little power.

His first year, the big thing was, he really did have a great line drive stroke, hitting 21 percent line drives in his first season. That LD% has gone down to around 17 percent with the Twins though, taking away his best skill.

In Minnesota, his GB% has spiked to around 54 percent, yet his BABIP is around .350 for his career. Hitting a bunch of hard liners and groundballs would explain his high BABIP to a degree though, so we can understand the average.

But his power is simply gone. His career minor league slugging percentage was well over .500. His career MLB slugging percentage currently sits at just over .400. While those grounders might help his batting average a bit, they are completely sapping his power. He also has no plate discipline at all.

The average MLB player will swing about about 25 percent of pitches outside of the zone. Young, for his career, has swung at about 40 percent of them.

When you look at what pitches Young has struggled on, it's the breaking pitches. At least in his first season he did great with fastballs. He was 12.3 runs above replacements on fastballs during the 2007 season.

But he was also 14.9 runs below replacement against sliders. Since then he has improved dramatically against the slider, but his strength—fastballs—has now become a bit of a weakness. He just can't hit anything now.

The thing is, if you want to know what went wrong, look at the difference between his rookie year and his career in Minnesota. In his first year he was a high BA, high line drive hitter with solid power, who dominated fastballs and struggled with breaking pitches.

He was 21 though, and he had plenty of time to get better. He couldn't draw a walk, but there was some promise. Since coming to Minnesota his BA has dropped, he's not hitting nearly as many line drives, his power has gone away completely, and he's not killing those fastballs.

My best guess as to what exactly happened to Delmon Young is complicated. Young was obviously mishandled by the Rays, who rushed him to the big leagues at 20 years old. He has so many holes in his game, and his attitude could be preventing him from fixing those holes.

Young was a very good prospect, but there were warning signs. We knew he wouldn't draw enough walks, we knew the power wasn't exactly following him to the higher levels, and we knew he had attitude problems. Those first two problems followed him to the big leagues but almost looked manageable. The third problem may not be.

In the end maybe that scout was right. Delmon has all the talent in the world, but he will only be as good as he wants to be. He doesn't seem mitigated in Minnesota, and when he doesn't want to play well, he doesn't play well.

At times he's a fastball murdering, line drive hitting, power hitter who doesn't strike out all that much. But at times he looks lost at the plate, a light hitting outfielder who's only in the lineup because of his arm.

This shows us just how unpredictable the minor leagues are. You can't get much more "can't miss" than Delmon Young. He had it all from a prospect standpoint. The scouting reports loved him and he dominated at every level. But he just hasn't made it in the Majors. But here's the thing.

Young is 23 years old. Twenty three. He was born a month after David Price. And he's certainly shown plenty of talent. Maybe, just maybe, it's not time to give up just yet. Delmon Young might just end up being as good as he wants to be.

This article was originally published at FantasyBullpen.com.

2010 NFL Mock Draft

Alex Geshwind — Fri, 08 May 2009 03:55:15 -0400

With the 2009 NFL draft just barely over the only natural reaction is to look forward to next seasons draft. The 2010 draft could potentially be the best in years. The defensive tackle and safety positions are especially deep, although there is also a ton of talent at linebacker, offensive tackle, and even QB. Not only are there plenty of top end talents, this draft is amazingly deep. So take a look at my projected first round of next years draft.

Begin Slideshow

Alex Rodriquez Steroid Saga: Don't Hate The Player, Hate The Game

Alex Geshwind — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 21:24:53 -0500

Alex Rodriguez took steroids in 2003. He broke Major League Baseball’s drug policy and a couple of U.S. laws. This may shock some people, although I think most are numb to it at this point.

What might be more shocking: I don’t care. As far as I’m concerned, it is the culture in baseball, not the players themselves that are to blame for the steroid problems throughout the 90’s and the first half of this decade.

Lets clear one thing up. Rodriguez is a Hall of Famer without the steroids. Of course we don’t know for sure when he was taking them, but what he said makes sense. If we assume he took them from 2001-2003, we can honestly say that he put up some significant numbers on steroids.

However, we can also say that while passing test after test from 2004-2008, Rodriguez won two MVPs and hit almost 200 home runs. His best season, 2007, was, to our knowledge, drug free. If that resume doesn’t get someone into the Hall of Fame I don’t know what does.

In 2003 when Rodriguez tested positive for steroids the MLB drug policy was a complete joke. Yes, steroids where a banned substance. But there was no testing and no penalties for those taking them.

Everyone in baseball knew what was going on. That includes the players, owners, and Bud Selig himself. But no one wanted to do anything about it. Ratings were high, and the fans were happy.

Imagine yourself in Rodriguez’s shoes. He obviously cares deeply about what others think. He has just signed the largest contract in the history of the sport. He is under tremendous pressure to put up career numbers. He sees that pretty much everyone in the sport has tried or considered taking these drugs.

MLB doesn’t seem to care as there is no testing and no penalties. The only sane thing to do is to take them, and that’s what he did.

How much are players statistics influenced by steroids. Personally, I’d say not much. From 2001-2003 Rodriguez was 25 to 27 years old. While the normal prime for a hitter is between 26 and 32, those who get an early start like Rodriguez (he was on a Major League club at 18) generally peak earlier in their careers.

He was also hitting in the best hitters park in the American League. It's only natural that he would hit 50 home runs at that point in time, and that’s what he did. He had hit home runs in the low 40s if you look at the previous three years.

While his performance obviously got better, he was just entering his prime and again entering a better park. All this is to be expected.

How he performed after leaving Texas speaks even louder volumes of how great a player he is. He moved to less of a hitters park in New York and seemingly stoped juicing. He proceeds to win two MVP's in a five year span.

Even more impressive is his 2007 campaign. That year, at 31-years of age, he put up career highs in OBP and SLG and ended up three shy of his highest home run total, which he sat at age 26 in Arlington.

Even without the steroids, he’d probably get close to if not pass 800 home runs. Those who say the record will be tainted once again need to realize that the record is just that, a baseball record, and not some judge of A-Rod as a person.

Many will say that they can’t justify putting a player into the Hall of Fame if they are connected to steroids. That’s just stupid.

Rodriguez came into a massive culture of steroids in Major League Baseball and put up great stats against juiced pitchers before, during, and after taking steroids. Major League Baseball is to blame here.

If they wanted to stop steroids in 1998 they could have but they didn’t feel like it. They saved the game of baseball, and made Bud Selig rich. That’s all he cared about. Now we are angry at the players. The players who were sent a clear message by Major League Baseball: keep juicing.

While it is true, players who played in the 40's, 50's, 60's, and beyond did not have the steroid advantage. They also did not have to compete with players who used steroids.

It’s like a baseball glove. At times it would have been considered cheating, however with everyone using it, it’s just part of the game.

There was the dead ball era, the pitchers era, and now the steroid era. Whether you like what these players did or not, they are no different than any others. They found a competitive advantage that they league was essentially encouraging, and they exploited it. It’s what most would do, it’s what most do do.

This article was originally published at FantasyBullpen.com. Alex Geshwind can be reached at alex.geshwind@fantasybullpen.com.

NFL Mock Draft: Could the Detroit Lions Take the Other Top Quarterback?

Alex Geshwind — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 01:55:28 -0500

Jake Long was the #1 pick last year, who goes in that spot in 2009? What? I need 300 characters. Ok I'll throw in my scouting report on Mark Sanchez: ------ Strengths: Arm Strength, Accuracy, Size, Pocket Presence, Poise, Decisions Making, Leadership, Energy, Athleticism Weaknesses: None Scouting Report: Sanchez has prototypical QB size at 6’3, 230. He has a perfect drop back and gets rid of the ball quickly. He has very good mechanics and makes up for a long motion with quick decision making. His pure arm strength has been compared to Carson Palmer and he delivers the 15-25 yard out pattern with a perfect line drive spiral consistently. He has the right amount of touch on his passes, and can throw the deep ball at an NFL level. He has pinpoint accuracy, rarely missing his targets and usually hitting them right on the hands. Usually he throws a great pass that only his WR can catch but sometimes he overthrows. This isn’t too bad though because he is still making sure it won’t get picked. Sanchez has a great pocket presence. He is aware of where all the defenders are and where he is on the field. He steps into his throws on a consistent basis, and is rarely tipped at the line. He has good mobility, picking up a few yards on the ground and getting away from defenders on bootlegs very well. He is extremely athletic, as shown by his throws on the run. Sanchez is a great leader on the field with tremendous amounts of energy. His teammates are very trusting of him and he is always in sinc with his receivers. Sanchez is the most complete QB in this draft. There really isn’t any aspect of his game that he doesn’t excel at. He has improved greatly in 2008, making better decisions with the ball and hitting his receivers hands more regularly. While he doesn’t have as many snaps at the college level as most draft prospects this will not hurt him because he is simply more fundamentally sound than most. NFL Draft Projection: Sanchez will most likely be a top 10 pick, possibly going as high as #1 overall. The longest I think he would fall would be 17 for the Jets and that is a big stretch. NFL Comparison: Brett Favre. Mark Sanchez is so much like Brett Favre. He is 6’3, 230 pounds. He is very athletic. He has a great arm, and is very accurate. And most of all he is a great leader who brings an energy to his team. I think he is far less of a gunslinger than Favre, although at times he can throw one up there.

Begin Slideshow

Fixing Baseball's Salary Problem Without a Cap

Alex Geshwind — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 17:41:34 -0500

With the Yankees' recent signing of Mark Teixeira there has been a lot of criticism from the baseball world as to the wild spending of Hank, Hal, and Cashman over the last month. The problem is obviously not the Yankees, if you have money why not spend it? The problem is Major League Baseball.

They don't regulate spending, they don't help out small market teams with nearly enough revenue sharing, and they allow the Florida Marlins of the world to draw 700 fans, spend $15 million, and get a nice, new, shiny stadium. When people see a spending problem their first reaction is to put in place a salary cap.

Salary caps have had mixed results. It worked in the NFL. No, not every team competes every year, but the Lions and Cardinals have bad management. It's not like they are being terribly out spent by the Patriots and Colts of the world. The NBA's salary cap however is a joke. No one cares about it. If they have money, they just pay the fines. In a star driven league owners will pay to get big players on board.

But a salary cap would be even more disastrous in Major League Baseball. It would set the league back a couple of decades, and would completely decimate the baseball economy. A lockout would follow, most likely for more than a year, and baseball would never be the same again.

Lets look at what happens if we put a low ($90-$100 million) cap in place. Of course MLB couldn't do this in one year, even the most extreme cap supporters have to realize that, but say they put it in place over five to 10 years. And let's, for a second, pretend they don't have to get it past the MLBPA.

As the cap slowly went down, teams would be forced to renegotiate contracts or buy players out. The market value for the average Major League player would go way down. Instead of a few teams out there reinvesting most of their money back into their teams all owners would be forced to pocket a good deal of their revenue. This is what players fought to prevent during the '60s in the lead up to the first MLB free agent.

Teams controlled players, there wasn't much money in the market, and owners got rich while players were paid far less than they should have been. Now we have to look at the MLBPA. I don't think the organization who's job it is to get the most money and the greatest quality of life for it's players would like this salary cap.

Think about how it would devastate player contracts. No team could sign Mark Teixeira for eight years, $180 million guaranteed. The MLBPA holds a lot of power because, quite simply, they can stop baseball until they get what they want. They did it in 1994, and that was for far less than an $80 million salary cap. A lockout could go on for years, baseball would not recover.

Now lets look at what would happen if we put in a reasonably high ($175-$200 million) cap. First of all the MLBPA would appose it. It doesn't matter if every team was bellow the cap, the PA wants to raise payrolls and get the players paid. Even if they could somehow get the PA to sign off on this, what is it going to do? There are still few MLB teams willing to spend $100-$150 million in payroll, even if they make that much in revenue.

The Yankees would max out their cap, and the lower teams would be about $150 million bellow. This would just exaggerate the problem. MLB teams would begin paying full salaries just so smaller market teams would take on their big contracts for injured or aging players so they could continue to approach the cap. This would just make the problem worse. Small market teams would be LESS likely to compete and baseball would become a joke.

There are also those who would like to see a payroll range. Somewhere in the $80-$100 million range. I have a major problem with this. Teams operate differently, and the only way to compensate with that would be a $50 million or great difference between the cap and the floor.

Because we have seen how un-pleasant that would be, I just don't see it happening. Maybe at some point in the future MLB can elect a committee to put forth a salary cap at the start of each off season based on the current revenue in the league. This however would be assuming that league revenue continues to grow.

In a league with guaranteed contracts, there is no such thing as lowering a salary cap. That just doesn't work.

But what do we do about it? My proposal is simple. Share revenue so that everyone has a chance to sign a few big name players. Then enforce a salary floor so that teams will not be able to take this revenue and hand it to the ownership group. This would create a semi-level playing field. I don't think MLB will ever by completely fair, but I'll tell you, there would be far more teams in it for Sabathia and Teixeira if they were getting forced to spend $75 million anyway.

Owners, seeing they had to spend, would go after big name guys in hopes that they could fill a few more seats and make more money. The PA would be thrilled. Instead of three or four teams able to offer Teixeira that kind of a contract, now all 30 teams would theoretical have a shot. They would all have enough money, and they would HAVE to spend it on someone.

There are a few more important economic issues baseball should work on. First free agent compensation. The Brewers traded Matt Laporta for CC Sabathia in July. They got a few months and a playoff birth out of him, and for that their fans are happy. But he has gone to sign a $160 million contract with the Yankees and the Brewers are left with the Yankeees second round pick.

Guess why? Because their first round pick is going to the Angels for Teixeira. You see Elias sports Burrow has come up with a stupid formula for ranking free agents. Sabathia was less than a point bellow Teixeira, but it doesn't matter. First, get rid of Elias. They have been nothing but trouble ever. They held on to the traditional scorecard and refused to share information with the public in the '80s and '90s. Put STATS Inc. or Baseball Info Solutions in charge. Both would do a FAR better job. Next we need to fix the compensation it self.

The Angles should have gotten the 27th pick, but the Brewers should have gotten number 28 (or 27a and 27b). The Yankees then should have given up later round picks to compensate teams that didn't get the Yankees first first round pick.

Next Major League Baseball has to get some kind of slotting system in the draft.

Boras runs the thing and teams are afraid to pick the best players because they might refuse to sign. There should be regulations as to what kind of bonuses you can pay latter round picks, forcing players to accept being drafter earlier if they wanted their money and to accept a reasonable sum once they are drafted.

We also need to somehow incorporate Latin American players into some kind of draft. Again, these guys are signed by agents and go to the highest bidder. Smaller market teams rarely have the resources to compete in this area.

Something has to be done, however I don't really expect Major League Baseball to think about a lot of these things. Major League Baseball is a business, and as Bud Selig likes to say it's doing better than ever (or was). Fans will get pissed that the Yankees and Tigers spend 10 times as much as them, but in reality the real problem in this league is poor revenue sharing and greedy owners.

I doubt anything is done to level the playing field for a long time, small market teams can and do win, and I think the likelihood of anything extreme ever happening is slim to non. Selig already has steroids on his resume, he's not going to take on another strike on top of that.

Don't expect anything to be done until he is gone. However if something is done the worst thing it could possibly be is a cap. A cap would ruin baseball, it would kill the player market, and it would send them into a lockout they might never recover from.

Alex Geshwind is a sabermetric baseball analyst for Fantasy Bullpen.

$16 Million For Burnett? Worth It.

Alex Geshwind — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 16:51:28 -0500

The news came down today that the New York Yankees had spent over $80 million on free agent starting pitcher AJ Burnett and I, like many Yankees fans, was a little disappointed. From a more objective standpoint I was in utter shock.

Surely, Brian Cashman had seen this guy get hurt time and time again. Did his 2008 season really support $16 million a year? My first impression was that someone else was calling the shots.

I will make no secret that I do not love Brian Cashman. He does not seem to be the statistical genius of a Billy Beane or Theo Epstein and sometimes I just feel like I could run the team better than him. However he is a modern, progressive GM who understands saber-metrics and gets deals done. So why in gods name would he sign Burnett for $16 million a year?

I set out to find the answer, and I did. AJ Burnett has been quite unlucky in his career, but if you look at his underlying statistics, and you combine them in pretty freaking complicated ways, you can see he is actually pretty good.

AJ Burnett has always been a strikeout pitcher and that is not going to change. In 2008, he put up 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings, good for first place in the American League and third overall in Major League Baseball. I have to note that it is down a strikeout every three games, but then I would also have to note that over the past two seasons he has put up by far the best strikeout rates of his career. The point is he strikes people out. That has never been his problem and never will be his problem.

Now let’s look at his walk rate. Since 2004, Burnett has been pretty average when it comes to his control and he has been very up and down. In his best year, 2006, Burnett walked 2.6 guys per nine innings. Not terrible, not good. This was when he was 30, right in the prime of his career, and we do not necessarily expect him to reach this level again.

However, we did not expect what would happen in 2007 either; his walk rate leaped up to 3.6 per nine. That is another walk every game, pretty significant. In 2008, he was unable to get it back down to his 2006 levels, but it did not get any worse. In fact it stayed at 3.5. This is pretty much in line with his career average of 3.7, and I think we can expect him to stay around there.

There could be a small improvement of course, since aging players tend to lose a little in strikeouts well before they lose a little in walks so the fact that he is putting up great strikeout numbers and bad walk numbers makes me think there definitely could be a few things to iron out.

When we put together those two stats we get a 2.7 K/BB rate. That is pretty good. It is not elite, but it is pretty good. We also see he had the exact same K/BB rate in 2007, however his tRA and xERA are significantly worse in 2008. His xERA in 2007 was 3.45 and his xERA in 2008 was 3.75. That is a huge difference. If it was still down at 3.45, I would be a little bit happier about the deal. So why did it go up?

First of all we have to look at his GB% (ground ball percentage), and here we do see a problem. In 2007, it was at 54.5%. In career context that was pretty good. In 2008 his GB% was 48. In career context that was pretty bad. His average is around 50%, which is very good considering his K rate.

After looking at this we start to see how good of a season 2007 was. He had a 54% GB% and a good K rate. But was 2008 really that bad? He kept the same K rate and BB rate. If he could have just kept the ball on the ground he would have been that 3.45 xERA (expected ERA) pitcher right? In all likelihood, yes.

Now this leads to a very interesting debate. Can Burnett get his GB% back? Again in all likelihood, yes. His GB% has been up and down his entire. He is throwing his fastball in the range he has been since 2004. There is a possibility that Burnett lost a bit of his GB ability by throwing less fastballs and more curveballs in 2008. But again, it just does not seem like enough.

So what does this mean? It means that Burnett did not get that much worse. That he did suffer a lot from a less effective sinking fastball and that he was most likely a little unlucky. Pitchers just do not lose six percent off their groundball percentage by throwing essentially the same pitches in the same way.

So, if we can expect him to perform somewhere in the middle of his 2007 and 2008 seasons, than we can probably expect a 3.50 or so xERA and a 2.7 K/BB rate with a GB% regressing back to his career average of 50%.

So, I just spent about 850 words telling you what to expect from AJ Burnett. But is he worth the contract? The three main factors I think went into this choice are: performance, division, and injuries.

As far as performance alone, he is probably worth somewhere around what he got. Now of course this is all very subjective. Is any baseball player worth what they get paid? But the only way to evaluate a player’s salary is to look at them in relation to the rest of the league.

Burnett is getting paid in the Carlos Zambrano range, and I think that is pretty appropriate. I am highly critical of Zambrano but when he signed the contract he was putting up an ERA in the mid three’s where Burnett’s xERA should be in 2009. Now I am not saying people should pay based on ERA and not xERA or tRA (expected runs/expected outs) or something better like that, but xERA is just a better ERA and the Cubs probably do not know what it means.

Someone who puts up an ERA/xERA in the mid three’s should be paid around $15-16 million in this market. Now there are plenty of pitchers getting paid less than this and putting up better stats, but we have to look at players in a similar performance group that signed extensions recently.

Now lets look at injuries. This could be the killer. In 2003 and 2004 Burnett had an injured elbow and missed significant time recovering from surgery. This injury flared up again in 2006, and he had shoulder problems in 2007. This is scary, and there is definitely a good chance something else flares up.

But what we do have to be thankful for is that we have not seen those elbow problems since 2006. They plagued him the first few years of his career and appear to be gone. He had a little shoulder problem but nothing seems to have come out of that. I would be worried, but I do not think Burnett has nearly reached Mark Prior or pre-2008 Rich Harden status.

There is a possibility something comes up, but the chances of a major elbow injury seem slim at this point. I would be worried about the five years, but if anyone can absorb a bad contract in the last few years it is the Yankees. At least for the next few years, he should not be injured as much as most are saying he will be.

Now we have to look at the final, and probably deciding factor. The Yankees could have gone after Derek Lowe instead. Lowe was the better pitcher. He had a better BB rate, better GB% (possibly the best in the league) and pretty a pretty good K rate. The only problem is that he has been doing this in the National League West in a great pitchers' park.

The Yankees were concerned as to whether he could make the transition to the AL East and rightfully so. I am not saying they made the right choice passing him up, but I see where they are coming from. Then you have AJ Burnett.

Burnett has pitched the last few years, two of the best of his career, in the AL East and has done it very, very well. Even better he no longer has to face the Yankees and now gets to face the Blue Jays. He has proven he can put up mid three’s xERA’s in the AL East and with the Yankees track record that is extremely important.

He also did well against a few AL East opponents. He put up 10 dominate starts against the Yankees and Red Sox combined. I am sure that he will have plenty of use out of division but the fact that he can handle the division does help his case.

Do I love this move? No. I would rather have had the Yankees go after Derek Lowe. He is just a better pitcher, I do not think the move to the AL East would hurt him that much. But I can see why the Yankees would want to go after Burnett, and I think they have many good points. Burnett is a talented pitcher with a few years left. He can pitch in the AL East and his injury problems have been slightly overblown. $16 million I am fine with. Five years? Not so much.

__________________________________________________________________________________

This article was originally published on Fantasy Bullpen. Alex Geshwind can be reached at alex.geshwind@fantasybullpen.com.

Report: Sabathia May Be Finalizing Contract With Yankees

Alex Geshwind — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 16:02:42 -0500

CC Sabathia may be headed to New York after all. Acording to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, he has a source claiming that Brian Cashman could begin finalizing a contract with CC Sabathia. Cashman flew to Callifornia on Tuesday to meet with free agent starter CC Sabathia. Brian Cashman flew to Callifornia on Tuesday to meet with free agent starter CC Sabathia.

Cashman had canceled his scheduled daily meeting with reporters today, saying he was "off hotel property and unavailable for the rest of the evening." At a little after 11 p.m. Dan Graziano of NJ.com reported that a Yankees official had told him Cashman was in San Fransisco to meet with Sabathia.

According the Graziano, Sabathia asked Cashman to fly out to San Fransisco and meet with him today and like any sane GM Cashman accepted. This is the third time in as many days that Cashman and Sabathia have met. They had meetings on both Sunday and Monday, during which Joe Girardi and Reggie Jackson were involved.

The Yankees official was very optimistic regarding the Yankees chances at landing Sabathia:

"From (Tuesday) morning until (Tuesday) night, things are looking a lot more positive in terms of us signing this guy. If you'd asked me at 11:00 (Tuesday) morning, I'd have told you no way. But right now, we have a real shot."

The Yankees also reportedly talked with Sabathia's teammate, Ben Sheets. Joe Girardi was especially interested in Sheets and it appears the Yankees will offer Sheets a contract, worth about $26 million for two-year, within 48 hours. Also talking to the Yankees are Derek Lowe, and AJ Burnett as well as Andy Pettite.

Article from Fantasy Bullpen.

Yankees Still Leader in Clubhouse For CC, Dodgers Looming

Alex Geshwind — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 09:39:08 -0500

CC Sabathia has completely turned the free agent market on it’s head over the past 24 hours and he and his agent are probably pretty happy about that. While it doesn’t seem as though Sabathia necessarily is getting very many offers at the $140 million he is looking for, the fact that it seems as though every team is hours away from signing him could help his value tremendously.

This all started at some point last night when Dodgers GM Ned Collette decided to tell the world that Sabathia would like to be a Dodger. Regardless of the legitimacy of the rumor, ESPN.com jumped and it blew up.

But people refused to look at the facts. The Dodgers do need pitching, but they have bigger wholes all around their infield and the rest of their offense is just terrible.

Sabathia’s market value is very high, his top offer around $140 million for six years from the Yankees, and the Dodgers just don’t seem to have enough money to compete. Even Collette is willing to admit that it would be a stretch.

Then at some point today the Giants seemed to jump back into things in a big way. For the first time they seemed as though they would make an offer to CC But we have been hearing all along that the Giants cannot top five years, $100 million and may be looking at even less.

With Zito on the payroll doing absolutely nothing, they just don’t have the money to pay him. Add that to the fact that they have a good rotation but an atrocious offense, similar to LA, and I just don’t know how likely they are to raise their offer.

Emerging from all of this as the favorite as of now appears to be the Brewers. For some reason, Sabathia would like to pitch for the Brewers and if they were willing to raise that offer to a sixth season he would quite possible accept.

But just recently Newsday has reported they have no plans to raise their offer and it will stand at five years, $100 million.

Then we have the Yankees. Based on money alone it’s a no-brainer. The Yankees offered him a year and $40 million more than any other team has so far. However CC Sabathia really seems to not want to pitch in New York.

Although he told the Yankees at some point during their two meetings this past week that he does not have a bias against New York, it seems very clear he wants to pitch on the west coast.

If they end up this far apart from everyone else I think they have a shot at CC but there is a possibility that a west coast team jumps into it. Although there are rumors that the Yankees are out of it, those have been shot down. I don't think the Yankees are looking to protect his value, so I do think they are still in it in a major way.

I doubt the Red Sox have a shot. If CC goes to the east coast, it will be for $140 million in New York. I also don’t think the Angels have a great shot, simply because they really need Mark Teixeira a lot more. It’s possible that Tex signs somewhere soon and that CC takes a look, but the Angels just haven’t shown enough interest.

In the end I think it comes down to the Dodgers, Giants, and Yankees. The Yankees are the only team right now that has a legit financial shot, however if the Dodgers or Giants come up close to New York's level I could see him going there just because he wants to pitch near his home in So. Cal. I just don't see a house in So. Cal bridging a $40 million gap.

This article was orginialy published at fantasybullpen.com. Alex Geshwind can be reached at alex.geshwind@fantasybullpen.com.

Robinson Cano to the Los Angeles Dodgers Gaining Steam

Alex Geshwind — Sat, 06 Dec 2008 06:30:57 -0500

According to multiple sources, including ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are in talks about a possible trade that would send Robinson Cano to the Dodgers.

Olney reports that the Yankees preferred package would include either Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley and assuming that offer is turned down they would focus their attention on outfielder Matt Kemp.

Early this week, there were rumors that the Yankees would swap Cano for Matt Kemp and Russell Martin, however those talks died down. If the Yankees want to make a serious move for those players together, I would assume an additional prospect or two would have to be added, probably of the caliber of a Philip Hughes or Ian Kennedy.

Even if the Yankees are unable to trade Cano to the Dodgers, it is highly likely they would find another team willing to pay big for the second basemen. Although Cano had a poor season in 2008, he was considered almost untouchable a year ago, even in talks for Johan Santana, because of his production early in his career and the length of time until arbitration.

If the Yankees were to trade Cano, it is likely that Orlando Hudson would be headed to New York. Olney reports that the Yankees have had “internal discussions” regarding Hudson, and that if Cano was traded he would be signed.

Robinson Cano’s struggles in 2008 were greatly documented by the New York media. Cano, who had hit .342 and .307 the previous two seasons with an OPS+ over 120 in both, was expected by many to make a big leap in 2008. Not only did his average go down to .271, but his defense got progressively worse and his OBP dropped to .305. His '08 OBP was lower than his average in 2007.

Although there are many theories as to why Cano struggled in 2008, most people point to him missing Larry Bowa. Cano and Bowa had grown very close during the 2007 season and was missed by Cano last year. Not only is Bowa on the Dodgers, the team Cano is rumored to be headed to, but so is Joe Torre who was also instrumental in Cano’s success. While Cano did struggle in '08, the Dodgers may be expecting him to turn it around with Torre and Bowa, something he may be able to do.

Of the potential packages coming back for the Yankees, the most impressive one is probably Matt Kemp and Russell Martin. Although it is unlikely the Yankees get this kind of package just for Cano, it is worth looking at as this deal could grow and both players could potentially end up on the Yankees during the '09 season.

Matt Kemp is an impressive young outfielder with a large skill set who struggled last season when his playing time was reduced. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that Kemp can hit in the .300 range with a .375-.400 OBP and a high SLG, as he showed this skill set in the 2007 season. Kemp is 24 and only going to improve, and he fits right into the Yankees gaping hole in center field.

As for Russell Martin, he has proven over the last few years to be one of the better catchers in baseball. Although his power decreased last season, he made significant strides in OBP while walking more and striking out less. He will be 26 by spring and should be entering the prime of his career. With Jorge Posada aging and his injuries piling up, it makes sense that Martin would slide in at catcher and Posada would DH.

I doubt the Yankees are able to pull off both Martin and Kemp, and it seems far more likely that Matt Kemp would be in the trade than Russell Martin. But according to Buster Olney, the Yankees would prefer a package that included either Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley.

I doubt the Dodgers would be sending either of them away; however, it is possible the Yankees could get something done that would include one of the young stud pitchers.

This story was originally published at fantasybullpen.com. Alex Geshwind is a sabermetric baseball analyst for fantasybullpen.com and can be reached at alex.geshwind@fantasybullpen.com.

Pedroia Given $40.5 Million, GMs Continue to Pay for Production Over Position

Alex Geshwind — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 08:13:17 -0500

This article was originally published at fantasybullpen.com.

I’m not a huge Dustin Pedroia fan by any stretch of the imagination. He’s one of those players that the fans and the media love.

You know, entirely overrated because he's five feet tall and has no business being as good as he is. But, as I said back in September, Dustin Pedroia is probably the third best second basemen in the league behind Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler.

That is why I was surprised at the amount of money he is getting paid ($6.75 million a year) compared to other players in a similar ranking at their position.

Lets start at first base. Because of the number of quality first basemen, you would expect to pay less for the third-best guy at first base than at second base.

However, if we assume that Justin Morneau is the third best guy at first base, we can see that in fact this is not the case. Justin Morneau makes over $8 million a year.

We can also look at shortstop, another position with far more depth and elite players. Jimmy Rollins is also making over $8 million dollars a year.

In the outfield, Matt Holliday is making over $9 million a year at another position of depth.

When we look at another position of weakness, however, it reveals the almost reverse supply and demand economics of baseball. At catcher, we see guys like Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez making around $6 million a year, putting up elite numbers.

Ok maybe Martinez wasn’t “elite” last year but he was definitely “elite” when he signed his contract.

The point is MLB GMs are looking more at overall value and production than anything to do with position scarcity. Although completely ignoring position scarcity would be foolish, it is an important lesson in both real and fantasy baseball not to let it make your decisions.

I think we can agree, Matt Holiday put up better numbers than Pedroia or Mauer, even if it would be easier to replace him. In the end, the Red Sox made the right choice. They looked at the situation, saw they had an elite second basemen, and decided to sign him knowing they had Dustin Pedroia, not Matt Holliday.

Alex Geshwind is a fantasy baseball analyst for fantasybullpen.com. He can be reached at alex.geshwind@fantasybullpen.com.

New York Yankees: Is Derek Jeter Overrated?

Alex Geshwind — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 10:10:07 -0400

For a few years now there has been a debate about one of the most controversial players in baseball, Derek Jeter.

Is the Yankee shortstop overrated or is he as good as everyone says?

For years, even as a Yankees fan, I was on the side of the people saying Jeter was overrated. Boy was I wrong. Below I will so, sabermetricly and objectively, that Derek Jeter is one of the top five offensive short stops of all time.

In an effort to identify sleepers for an ongoing draft of all-time greats, I was looking over a spreadsheet of wOBA leaders by position. Then I saw Jeter, sitting there, in the sixth spot. This was a surprise so I looked at who was above him. Here are the top 6 players:

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. Nomar Garciapara

3. Arky Vughan

4. Joe Cronin

5. Honus Wagner

6. Derek Jeter

So what does that mean? Well for one, it means Jeter is pretty good. But he has played during an offensive era right? Well lets look at league adjusted OPS for shortstops:

1. Honus Wagner

2. Alex Rodriguez

3. Arky Vaughan

4. Nomar Garciapar

5. Ernie Banks

6. Derek Jeter

So even when you league adjust, Jeter still cracks the top 6. Now I think the true ranking lies somewhere in between these numbers, especially at the top. However, this seems to show that Jeter is in fact one of the top shortstops in league history.

So let's take another look at a few of the guys ahead of Jeter. Nomar Garciapara has good numbers, yes, however the amount of time he’s missed do to injury and the fact that he only had a few really good years drop him down my list a bit. That would put Jeter in the top 5. So the list would go as follows.

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. Honus Wagner

3. Arky Vaughan

4. Ernie Banks

5. Derek Jeter

That would put Jeter in the top 5 all time. Not overrated.

Now you can call on defense, and I will admit Jeter is not good defensively, but really what measures are you going to use. Quite simply at this time there isn’t an accurate measurement for defense that is commonly available.

So there you have it. Look at my argument. I just dont see how Jeter is overrated. He is a very good offensive shortstop, and he should be in the hall of fame.

Yanks' Kennedy Set To Make First Start Since April

Alex Geshwind — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 10:29:27 -0400

I still think the Yankees are okay.

Crazy, right? How can a team that lost their top two pitchers, starting catcher, replacement starting catcher, and DH be okay? Well, here's the thing: they are still in striking distance, and they're still a good team.

And with the news that Ian Kennedy's back, they are even better.

Kennedy has killed Triple-A with a 38/13 K/BB rate, a 2.14 ERA, and a .91 WHIP. With Joba out, Kennedy will need to continue that and I think he can. We need him.

We can still look foward to guys like Phil Hughes and Mark Melancon coming up soon; tonight, however, it's all Ian. I'm so excited I actually got MLB.TV to see the game (I'm around Boston on vacation so it's not on TV). I've picked him up in fantasy leagues and even wasted 15 minutes writing this little stub of an article.

Open Mic: New York Yankees All-Time Lineup

Alex Geshwind — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 17:11:20 -0400

Bill Dickey, C

I know everyone loves Yogi Berra, and that includes me, but if you look at the stats, Bill Dickey was the better player. Dickey had about 100 less runs created in about 1000 less plate appearances, a far better OPS and even a better OPS+ playing on the same team as Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. Dickey has been historically under-appreciated due to his famous teammates and the fact that he only had 10 or 11 full seasons. However, when he was playing Dickey was better than any Yankees catcher of all time.

Lou Gehrig, 1B

Gehrig is the easy choice here. He is ranked in my top 5 all time players. Gehrig is second on the Yankees all time in OBP, SLG, OPS, runs created, batting wins, and offensive win percentage behind only the great Babe Ruth in each of those categories. Gehrig also holds an amazing 9.64 range factor, greater even than gold glover Don Mattingly by .31 points.

Tony Lazzeri, 2B

Lazzeri is the easy choice here with better stats all across the board than other Yankees second basemen. I did take a look at Randolph and Soriano, as well as a surprise candidate in Frank LaPorte but Lazzeri was the best.

Derek Jeter, SS

Jeter may not be as good as some Yankees fans give him credit for, but he is a very good player. He is 13th on the Yankees all-time list on OBP with a .386 mark. That, and his .459 slugging percentage, gives him a .845 OPS, 22nd best on the Yankees all-time list. None of these stats are outstanding; however they are better than other Yankees shortstops, and most other shortstops, by far.

What is, outstanding, however is that Jeter is sixth all-time on the Yankees runs created list, trailing only Bernie Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Lou Gehrig, and Babe Ruth.

Alex Rodriguez, 3B

In only four-plus years with the Yankees Alex Rodriguez has established himself as the Yankees greatest all time third basemen, and perhaps one of the greatest Yankees of all time, period. He already ranks 13th on the Yankees all-time winning at-bats list despite having just over 3000 plate appearance with them. He currently ranks sixth on the Yankees in OBP, fourth in slugging percentage, and third in OPS behind only Ruth and Gehrig. Undoubtedly the greatest third basemen in Yankees history.

Joe DiMaggio, LF

Okay, so I'm cheating here, but really who cares? DiMaggio, while not in my opinion as good as Mantle, is definitely one of the top five Yankees of all-time, and therefore deserves to be on this list. He trails only Ruth and Gehrig in slugging percentage, and only Ruth, Gehrig, and Mantle in OPS. He also ranks fourth in runs created, batting wins, and extra base hits despite having only around 7000 plate appearance with the team (as apposed to guys like Gehrig who have about 2000 more).

Mickey Mantle, CF

Mantle was without a doubt a great player and without injuries who knows how much better he would have been. But even with the injuries he ranks as the third best Yankee of all time; in my opinion making him the top centerfielder in team history. Not only does he rank fourth in OPS and third in OPS+, he also ranks third in runs created and extra base hiits behind only Gehrig and Ruth.

Babe Ruth, RF

Where do I start? He leads the Yankees in every single significant statistical category, home runs, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, and even more. Ruth is simply the greatest of all-time.

Charlie Keller, DH

Keller is a virtually unknown player, however after looking over some of his statistics I thought I should consider him on this list. He ranks fourth all-time on the Yankees in OBP, seventh in OPS, and eighth in slugging. Nobody really knows him, however, they probably did back when he played.

I really can't do the pitching staff, however, I have to say after looking at the numbers, three pitchers in the rotation would be from after 1996. Pitchers like Mike Mussina, David Wells, and David Cone would have to be included. The other two would be Ron Guidry and Whitey Ford, but still that’s just throwing guys out there who had some good numbers, I cant really find anything significant about any of them.

In the Bullpen it's Mariano Rivera and Goose Gossage, not even close.

New York Yankees: 10 September Call Ups

Alex Geshwind — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 15:13:05 -0400

The trade deadline has come and passed, with the Yankees making plenty of trades to bolster their roster. You think their roster's set, though? Not even close.

With rosters expanding in September here are 10 minor leaguers that can make an impact at the big league level. (* Technically Hughes is on the DL but he's pretty much a minor leaguer as of now).

1. Phillip Hughes, SP: A former top prospect and the youngest pitcher in the major leagues when camp broke, Hughes struggled early on in 2008, putting up as many walks as strikeouts (13 in 22 IP) to go along with an earned run an inning. I'm still confident he will be back to his old self again when he gets back. With a new pair of Oakley glasses Hughes is set to be the next wild thing. (No joke, see Phil's blog).

There have been rumors Hughes will come back in the bullpen but with the success of Veras, Robertson, and others the rotation seems to be a bigger need. I think Hughes' five seasons of outstanding minor league service (312/67 K/BB rate, 2.07 era, .86 Whip) outweigh bad couple of weeks in the majors, lets just hope I'm right.

2. Ian Kennedy, SP: Like Hughes, Kennedy started the year as a top prospect before failing to meet expectations and subsequently going down with an injury. Also like Hughes, I believe Kennedy will be back to his own self. In a couple of professional season Kennedy put up 208 strikeouts in a little under 200 IP to go along with 67 walks. Kennedy has also succeed so far this season in the minor leagues.

He has a 32/12 K/BB rate in 39 triple A innings along with a 2.03 era and .89 whip, similar numbers to those he put up in 2007. Kennedy also had a no-hitter going through 6 2/3 innings at Scranton-Wilkes Barre, furthering his status as one of the Yankees' top prospects. With both Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson struggling lately, Kennedy is a good bet to be back up by September.

3. Mark Melancon, RP/SP: This guy is the first real prospect on this list, as Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy have both made a impact at the big league level. Melancon wasn't considered for most top 10 or even 20 Yankees prospects list coming into the season, however Brian Cashman's favorite minor leaguer has broken out big time.

With 47 strikeouts to only 12 walks in 49 double-A innings Melancon was able to post a 1.81 era and .89 whip. He also posted an undefeated 6-0 record for what that's worth. His chance of making an impact this year got even greater when Brian Cashman called him untouchable in trade talks, then promoted him to triple-A Scranton Wilkes Barre.

He's been used primarily as a reliever this year, however he is considered a decent starting prospect as well. If he makes an impact this year though it will probably be in the bullpen.

4. Austin Jackson, CF: Jackson, the Yankees top outfield prospect, has hit at every level in the Yankees system since exploding onto the seen last year. Hes currently hitting .287 with an over .800 OPS and nine home runs to go along with 15 steals. Hes been even hotter the past few weeks.

After the departure of Jose Tabata as part of the Xavier Nady deal, Jackson finally doesnt have to worry about who is the Yankees centerfielder of the future. With Melky Cabera hitting poorly this season and Austin Jackson tearing up the minors its possible Jackson's up this September and maybe takes over the full-time centerfield duties. Then again, next season is more likely.

5. Brett Gardner, CF: Although Jackson is the long term future in CF, Gardner might be more major league ready as of now. His debut wasn't nearly what many had hope for as he went 9 for 59, however he did impress on the base paths stealing 5 bases in 5 tries.

Gardner also has the advantage of being one of Joe Girardi's favorite players, something that can not be underestimated. His minor league track record is of a guy who gets on base, steals bases, and doesn't strikeout. If he get recalled to the majors and can continue to perform like he is in the minors, he could make a huge impact on the AL East race.

6. Alfredo Acevec, SP/RP: I have to admit, I had no idea who Aceves was coming into the year and for good reason. He pitched last season in the Mexican league, however since signing with the Yankees, he has risen through the system.

Aceves has combined for a 2.15 era, .88 whip, and 91 strikeouts to only 17 walks in 108 innings through three levels. Yankees GM Brian Cashman even went to a Scranton-Wilkes Barre game to watch him pitch. Aceves has started at all three levels, however he is a possible candidate for the bullpen. Expect him up in September.

7. Chase Wright, SP: Chase Wright is a solid guy if the Yankees need a spot starter at some point between now and October. However, I don't think you will see him hang onto a rotation spot long term. He pitched decently in Trenton posting a sub-3.00 era in 91 innings, however his K/BB rate was only 53/34 witch is cause for concern.

Cashman recently promoted Wright to AAA Scranton along with Mark Melancon, making it even more likely we will see him in the big leagues at some point.

8. Kei Igawa, SP/LR: Igawa may be a career AAAA pitcher, let's just hope he isn't. His AAA numbers this year are fantastic (3.55 era, 1.17 whip, 97/37 k/bb in 126 2/3 innings), however his MLB numbers (6 runs in 4 innings) are horrendous.

With his great performance in AAA, especially recently, it appears as though he will be brought up when rosters expand. If he can perform even close to his AAA level he could be an important long reliever/spot starter for the playoff run, however for some reason I doubt he will.

9. James Brent Cox, RP: Cox has been called the replacement for Mariano Rivera for as long as I can remember, however it now appears as though he has been passed by Melancon for that title. This is mainly because of his struggles this year (14/11 K/BB in 31 innings to go with an over 4 era) coupled with Melancon's success.

Still his 109/44 career K/BB rate and 2.84 career era in the minors do outweigh 31 innings this season. Cox has lost some of his former top prospect status, however, I still believe who could potentially be called up and give the bullpen a boost.

10. Alan Horne, SP: When camp broke this season, Horne was the top arm in the Yankees minor league system. Since then, injuries have limited him to 32 innings pitched. Even when he has been in the rotation he has struggled with a 24/22 K/BB rate. Injuries probably contributed to this, but the rust is still there.

He could make it up to the big leagues in September; however, next year seems more likely. Disappointing to see a 25-year-old lose another year in the minors.

Okay, so there you have it, 10 guys the Yankees should call up this September who could impact the race.

Here are some honorable mentions: Justin Christian, Eric Duncan, Jaun Miranda, George Kontos, Phil Coke.

Alex Geshwind is a sabermetric fantasy baseball anylist for fantasybullpen.com. He can be contacted at alex.geshwind@fantasybullpen.com.

Georgia First, USC Second According to USA Today Coaches Poll

Alex Geshwind — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 18:12:23 -0400

The USA Today NCAA D-1 Football coaches poll was released Friday night. The Georgia Bulldogs topped the poll followed by the USC Trojans and Ohio State Buckeyes. The full top 25 are:

1. Georgia

2. USC

3. Ohio State

4. Oklahoma

5. Florida

6. LSU

7. Missouri

8. West Virginia

9. Clemson

10. Texas

11. Auburn

12. Wisconsin

13. Kansas

14. Texas Tech

15. Virginia Tech

16. Arizona State

17. Brigham Young

18. Tennessee

19. Illinois

20. Oregon

21. South Florida

22. Penn State

23. Wake Forest

24. Michigan

25. Fresno State

Trade Deadline: GM Report Cards

Alex Geshwind — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 10:52:43 -0400

On July 7, the Brewers kicked the trade market into full swing when they acquired CC Sabathia from the Indians for Matt LaPorta.

Since then, 21 of the 30 Major League Baseball general managers have been involved in trades. I am going to list each and every one of them, from those who made one minor move to those who made quite a few of them, and give them a grade from A to F.

Billy Beane, Oakland Athletics: B

I give Billy Beane tons of credit for being honest with himself. On July 8, with his team in serious playoff contention, Billy Beane looked at his roster and looked at the rosters of the Angels and other serious wild-card contenders. He then decided his team was not going to make the playoffs.

Over the next couple of weeks, Beane traded the only three remaining members from the 2007 rotation, Rich Harden, Chad Gaudin, and Joe Blanton, for seven prospects, including Matt Murton.

Now I'm going to say this—I'm not a huge fan of what the Athletics got back for Harden—but Beane knew his situation and figured out what he could get. Once again, he proves to be one of the best general managers in the game.

Jim Bowden, Washington Nationals: D

The only move Bowden actually made was fairly minor, he sent Jon Rauch to the Diamondbacks for a minor-league second baseman. The reason I give him such a low grade is his mishandling of the Tim Redding situation.

According to a National League general manager, Bowden "overplayed his hand" with Redding. Redding's value dropped even further by imploding Wednesday night against the Phillies.

Josh Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks: B

Byrnes and the Diamondbacks didn't make any major moves; however, they did make a couple of them that worked in their favor. Acquiring Jon Rauch stabilizes their bullpen and re-acquiring Tony Clark helps out their lineup.

Brian Cashman, New York Yankees: A

The past week has been very big for Cashman and the Yankees. Last Friday, Cashman acquired Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte for Jose Tabata, Ross Ohlendorf, Daniel McCutchen, and Jeff Karstens.

Cashman was able to fill the team's two biggest holes, right-handed corner outfielder and left-handed reliever, for a few minor-league prospects.

Yes, Tabata has upside, but he hasn't done anything yet. The week got even better Wednesday, when the Yankees acquired Ivan Rodriguez for Kyle Farnsworth. They filled the hole left by the injured Jorge Posada with a good defender and a solid bat. All Cashman gave up was a mediocre reliever who has been up and down as a Yankee.

Another minor deal went down sending LaTroy Hawkins to the Astros for a minor-league infielder. What a week.

Ned Colletti, Los Angeles Dodgers: A

Colletti's first trade was pretty decent. He acquired Casey Blake from the Indians for a couple of fringe prospects in what was basically a salary dump. However, it's what he did minutes before the trading deadline that lands him an A.

With the three-way trade between the Marlins, Pirates, and Red Sox falling apart, the Dodgers swooped in and acquired Manny Ramirez for no more than Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris. They pulled off the trade without giving up Matt Kemp, the guy that was reportedly being discussed. Great job.

Dave Dombrowski, Detroit Tigers: C

Dombrowski's one trade, sending Ivan Rodriguez to the Yankees for Kyle Farnsworth, was a disaster in my opinion. I sort of understand why Dombrowski made the trade. Rodriguez wanted out of Detroit and they had a solid backup catcher, Brandon Inge, waiting to take over.

They needed a bullpen arm and Kyle Farnsworth had succeeded as a Tiger before.

The problem is that Farnsworth has been on and off the last few years for the Yankees and just doesn't seem to be enough for a solid player at a premium position. I think Dombrowski fell in love with Farnsworth the past month and thought he could get what he had back in 2005. I just don’t think it's going to happen.

Theo Epstein, Red Sox: B

Epstein made one big move, trading slugger Manny Ramirez and a couple of prospects as part of a three-way trade that landed them Jason Bay. Although I don't think Bay will replace Manny's offense, he is younger, less expensive, and much less of a clubhouse problem.

Based off his recent comments, you would have thought he was Gary Sheffield, and he had already been traded. Epstein made the right call, but it still hurt his lineup a bit.

Pat Gillick, Philadelphia Phillies: B+

Gillick really helped out his team by acquiring Joe Blanton for a couple of minor leaguers. Blanton gives them a solid mid-rotation guy in an offense-heavy division. The one thing that keeps him from getting an A is his failure to make a serious run at Manny Ramirez.

If he had added the presence to his lineup, possibility by sending Pat Burrell to the Red Sox, the Phillies would have had a much easier time winning that division. Either way, Gillick did a good job by getting Blanton and not giving up too much.

Jim Hendry, Chicago Cubs: A

Hendry and the Cubs responded to the Brewers acquisition of CC Sabathia by going after a young ace of their own in Rich Harden. They were able to acquire the ace for the price of Matt Murton and Sean Gallagher, two players the Cubs really didn't need any more, along with a couple of decent prospects.

Hendry also picked up Chad Gaudin, who had limited success last year; however, that wasn't really that big of a deal. Harden himself gives Hendry an A.

Michael Hill, Marlins: C

I was all ready to give the Marlins a great grade for finally committing to winning now by trading for Manny Ramirez. That was before they screwed up the deal by asking for more money and prospects.

I understand they didn't want to give up youth for nothing, but Manny Ramirez was a difference maker for their team, and they didn't get him because they held out for more.

The trade for Rhodes was ok, as they really didn't give much up.

Neal Huntington, Pittsburgh Pirates: A

Huntington is the only seller on my list getting an A. Huntington executed his fire sale perfectly. First, he acquired two serious prospects, Jose Tabata and Daniel McCutchen, for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. Maybe he could have gotten more, but Tabata's upside makes it a decent trade.

Then he acquired uber-prospect Andy LaRoche, along with Bryan Morris, Brandon Moss, and Craig Hanson for Jason Bay. All and all, he continued to build for the future, and for the first time in recent memory, there seems to be some hope in Pittsburgh.

Walt Jocketty, Cincinnati Reds: C

Jocketty, who took over early this season as general manager, was able to at least work out one trade to cut the salary cap and acquire a couple of prospects. Maybe Griffey should have been gone earlier, when his value was higher, but I'm not sure they could have gotten more at this point.

I am a bit disappointed that they didn't deal Bronson Arroyo. I think they could have gotten a few more prospects for him, as he's a solid option for the back end of a rotation.

Doug Melvin, Milwaukee Brewers: B+

Melvin and the Brewers kicked off the trade deadline season by acquiring 2007 Cy Young award winner CC Sabathia from the Cleveland Indians for Matt LaPorta, their minor-league phenom first baseman.

Now, I love that they went for it. Sabathia is definitely worth it, but I can't give them an A for one simple reason. In all likelihood, Sabathia walks at the end of the year. And unless they make the playoffs, they gave up LaPorta for nothing. But they’re still in the race, so it's too early to judge that trade.

They also made one other minor deal acquiring Ray Durham for a couple of prospects. Pretty good job overall.

John Mozeliak, St. Louis Cardinals: B

Mozeliak and the Cardinals really didn't do much this trading deadline season. The trade that sent Anthony Reyes to the Indians for Luis Perdomo was a decent trade for both sides. The Indians got Reyes, who's more major-league ready, while the Cardinals get possibly the better talent.

They really didn't make any other moves either way, which was probably the right thing to do, as they only have an outside shot at the playoffs. Mozeliak didn't want to tear his team apart.

Tony Reagins, Los Angeles Angels: A

The Angels have historically been in the mix with players, but rarely actually gotten anything big done. That has changed. Reagins and the Angels decided they wanted to be the best team in the American League, and then they made it happen.

By acquiring Mark Teixeira for Casey Kotchman and a minor-league bullpen arm, they improved an already scary offense to go with a killer rotation and a nasty bullpen. Reagins gets an A for that.

Brian Sabean, San Francisco Giants: C

Sabean and the Giants were surprisingly inactive this trade deadline, as the only move they made was trading Ray Durham for a couple of prospects. A decent deal, but nothing too big. They had been linked to Alex Rios all year, but, as expected, nothing happened there.

They were also unable to trade Bengie Molina, probably their biggest chip. The strong-hitting catcher was rumored to be going to a few teams, including the Yankees, but nothing happened there, either. Hopefully the Giants start to rebuild this winter, but until then, they are just too old and too bad.

Mark Shapiro, Cleveland Indians: B

The problem with Shapiro is that he didn't seem to be sure whether he was a buyer or a seller. Trading CC Sabathia, a guy he couldn’t resign, for Matt LaPorta, one of the top prospects in the league, was a good deal. He also traded Casey Blake for a couple of prospects witch worked out well...if he was a seller.

That's why acquiring Anthony Reyes puzzles me. I mean, Reyes had less long-term value than the guy he gave up. I'm just not sure why he made that deal.

Kevin Towers, San Diego Padres: B

Towers made a couple of decent moves a couple of weeks ago, trading Tony Clark to the D'backs for minor-league pitcher Evan Scribner, and Randy Wolf to the Astros for minor-league pitcher Chad Reineke.

Both Wolf and Clark were vets that had little value to a last-place team and Towers was able to grab a couple of good, young pitchers in return for them. Reineke in particular has 105 strikeouts to only 36 walks this season in the AAA PCL. Decent job by Towers getting something for his vets.

Ed Wade, Houston Astros: B

Ed Wade and the Astros made a few small moves, as did many other teams. First, they acquired Randy Wolf from the San Diego Padres for minor-league pitcher Chad Reineke to help out their rotation.

Then, they bolstered their bullpen with the acquisition of LaTroy Hawkins for a minor-league infielder. A couple of decent moves that helped the Astros try and make a move in the highly contested National League Central.

Kenny Williams, Chicago White Sox: B

Williams gets a B for making a move to help his team, but I'm not too sure it helped his team that much. In trading two minor leaguers for Ken Griffey Jr., Williams got a future Hall of Famer and a decent bat. I'm just not really sure that Griffey can play center field or that he will perform any better than Paul Konerko, who will be benched.

Frank Wren, Atlanta Braves: B+

Although the Braves traded away one of the best hitters in the league, they were really doing the right thing. There was very little chance they were going to re-sign Teixeira at the end of the year, so trading him for solid, young first basemen in Casey Kotchman and a young bullpen arm was a great move.

So who would be my biggest winner and losers?

My biggest winner has to be Ned Colletti. He got a lot for pretty much nothing, as the Dodgers really didn't seem to be interested in Andy LaRoche anymore.

My biggest loser didn't even make a deal. Lee Pelekoudas and the Mariners were unable to dump any salary or add any prospects. The team just seems to be in denial.

Alex Geshwind is a sabermetric baseball analyst for fantasybullpen.com. He can be contacted at alex.geshwind@fantasybullpen.com.

Report: Jason Bay Traded To Rays

Alex Geshwind — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 08:42:02 -0400

MLB.com's Bill Chastain is reporting that the Pirates and Rays have agreed on a trade that would send Jason Bay to the Rays in exchange for Reid Brignac and Jeff Niemann. It is important to note that neither team has comfirmed this, however Chastain says this is coming from a reliable MLB.com source.

This conflicts with other reports that the Red Sox, Marlins, and Pirates are still close to working out a three way trade that would include Bay and Red Sox slugger Manny Ramirez.

Bay, the 30 year old former rookie of the year, is hitting around .280 with 22 home runs and a .894 OPS. Both Brignac and Niemann are highly regarded prospects, however there were rumors that the Pirates would hold out for one of the Rays top pitching prospects Wade Davis.

Again, this deal is not confirmed, however MLB.com has a reliable source saying the Rays WILL aquire Jason Bay for the two prospects.

Manny Ramirez Traded to Florida Marlins

Alex Geshwind — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 15:44:09 -0400

Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll is reporting that the Boston Red Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Florida Marlins have agreed on a three-team trade that would send Manny Ramirez to the Florida Marlins, along with a prospect and cash.

The trade would go as follows:

Marlins receive: Manny Ramirez, Prospect, Cash.

Red Sox receive: Jason Bay, John Grabow.

Pirates recieve: Jerihmia Hermida, one Marlins prospect, one Sox prospect.

There have been rumors all day that Ramirez would be traded—with the Marlins being one of the teams involved, this trade comes as no surprise.

New York Yankees Land Ivan Rodriguez

Alex Geshwind — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 10:11:32 -0400

The New York Yankees have traded reliever Kyle Farnsworth to the Detroit Tigers for Ivan Rodriguez, according to numerous sources.The trade was first reported by ESPN.com's Buster Onley.

The Yankees have been searching for a short-term replacement for injured catcher Jorge Posada, and they found one in Rodriguez. Rodriguez is in the final year of the $50 million contract he signed with Detroit in 2004. This move comes out of nowhere, as the Yankees were linked to Gerald Laird and Bengie Molina but not Ivan Rodriguez.

Rodriguez should take over full-time catching duties from Jose Molina. Chad Moeller is likely to be designated for assignment to make room for Farnsworth's replacement in the bullpen.

Five Potential Deadline Moves for Brian Cashman

Alex Geshwind — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 20:20:17 -0400

This trade deadline, more than any other in recent memory, Brian Cashman is in a really good spot. His team is playing well, his bullpen is rock solid, and he’s got a farm system loaded with special talents.

A few days ago when the news came down that the Yankees were trading Jose Tabata, Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, and Dan McCutchen for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte, the Yankees filled two big holes with a righty outfielder and a lefty reliever. That certainly helped, but there are still a few spots to fill.

First of all, they must find replacements for Darell Rasner and/or Sidney Ponson. This could come internally with guys like Mark Melancon, Zach McAllister, Ian Kennedy, and Allan Horne, who are all pitching well at their respective minor league levels. They should succeed, but there’s no guarantee.

There are plenty of guys out there, Cashman just has to find the right price. They could still use another lefty for their bullpen and possibly a backup catcher, but those are secondary needs. So here are the five guys still out there, and what they are worth:

1. Jarrod Washburn: He is definitely an upgrade over the Yankees bottom two starters. The problem is what the Mariners want back. Cashman offered to take Washburn's contract off their hands as long as they take Igawa, but the M's want more.

They want the Yankees to take the contract, keep Igawa, and add in a mid-tier prospect. Not sure who's going to blink first, but Cashman can walk away, and the Mariners can't.

2. Zach Greinke/Brian Bannister: Earlier in the year GMs everywhere would have wanted both of these guys. While Greinke has continued to succeed (not surprising considering his K and BB rates), Bannister has faltered (ditto).

Bannister, the one with the lower ceiling and an era north of five, would cost less. Probably just Melky Cabrera. But Cashman does not perceive him as enough of an upgrade to part with his center fielder. Greinke is younger, has a higher ceiling, and is pitching well this year. He’s the total package, but the price may be to high.

I heard rumors of a Melky, Allan Horne, Phil Coke deal earlier today, but the likelihood of that is extremely low. The Royals might go for a package of Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano that they turned down about a week back, but again im not sure the Yankees are up to that anymore. I doubt we see either of these guys in pinstripes because of the price, but if Cashman could work something out they are both definitely upgrades.

3. Will Ohman: Although the Yankees got Marte, they still only have one lefty in their bullpen. Ohman + Marte would give them two dominant left handers, something that can come in handy in the AL East.

I'm not sure what the Braves want from the Yankees, but I would guess nothing more than a mid-level prospect. Maybe they would go for a high-risk/high-reward guy like the Pirates with Tabata.

4. Justin Duchscherer: The Idea of adding Duchscherer is intriguing, but the price is not. Billy Beane historically asks for a lot for his players, and considering the deals he got for guys like Danny Haren or even Mark Mulder before that, you can just imagine what he would want for this guy.

I'm guessing that Cabrera, Kennedy, and a couple of lower to mid-level guys would do it, but I don’t think we want to spend on a guy who although good, is probably not Johan Santana (we offered that package for Santana, so..)

5. Gerald Laird: Although Jose Molina and Chad Moeller have performed well all things considered this year, it's hard to see the Yankees sticking with those two all year. Laird is an upgrade over both offensively, and would split time with the defensive minded Jose Molina. Chad Moeller would most likely be DFA. What would it take to get Laird? The Rangers appear to be looking for a young starter along the lines of an Allan Horne.

So what should Cashman do? He should find out the best pitcher he can get for Melky Cabrera + Allan Horne type prospects, then he should figure out if it’s a big enough upgrade from Ponson and Rasner.

If it is, he needs to do it, then hope that the M’s send you Washburn and maybe go out and get Laird. At the end of the day, the Yankees would be better if they added a couple more starters, but they don’t need to. Cashman has the power to walk away.

Alex Geshwind and is a sabermetric baseball analyst for fantasybullpen.com. He can be contacted at alex.geshwind@fantasybullpen.com