Bleacher Report - Articles by Ned Dutton

A BCS History Lesson: Should We Have Had a Playoff All Along?

Ned Dutton — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 08:32:03 -0500

The last few years have seen a majority of College Football fans jump on the playoff bandwagon, with most people convinced that the BCS is stupid, dumb, biased, or something similar. These fans believe that a playoff system is what College Football needs over all else.

Even President-elect Barack Obama is pushing for change (though maybe that should be expected, given the slogan of his campaign), having used multiple media outlets to voice his frustration with the current system.

The biggest controversy revolves around determining who makes it into the BCS title game. In 2003, a one-loss USC was left out of a BCS Title Game that featured two one-loss teams (yet USC claimed a national title anyway).

In 2004, two undefeated teams (Auburn and Utah) were left on the outside looking in as two other undefeated teams (USC and Oklahoma) got to play in the BCS title game.

Then in 2006, an undefeated Boise State team was left out of the BCS title game in favor of a one-loss Florida team.

And of course, there is 2008, when five one-loss teams and two undefeated teams were left out of the BCS title game in favor of two one-loss teams, even though one of the teams left out (Texas) beat one of the BCS title game teams (Oklahoma) by 10 points on a neutral field.

A solution to the problem, as proposed by many voices in the college football universe, would be to use the BCS (since college football isn't getting rid of it any time soon) to find the top eight teams at the end of the year, and have those eight fight it out, March Madness-style, for the title.

The thinking goes, the top team has to be in those eight, so let any controversies work themselves out on the field.

Sure, that idea looks very attractive this year, when (almost) all the undefeated and one-loss teams would be able to battle it out for themselves. (Sorry, Boise State.). But what about the other 10 years of the BCS?

Let's take a look back at the first 10 years of the BCS, and see how things would have looked if the hypothetical playoff system people so crave had been in place:

1998

In 1998, the actual BCS Matchups were (with the winning team listed first):

Rose Bowl: No. 9 Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ) vs. No. 5 UCLA (Pac-Ten Champ)
Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Ohio State (At-Large) vs. No. 6 Texas A&M (Big 12 Champ)
Orange Bowl: No. 8 Florida (At-Large) vs. No. 15 Syracuse (Big East Champ)
Fiesta Bowl: No. 1 Tennessee (SEC Champ, No. 1) vs. No. 2 Florida State (ACC Champ, No. 2)

As you can see, the BCS got six of the top eight teams in these games anyway, so it looks like it did a decent job. But don't tell that to Kansas State, which was ranked No. 3 in the BCS and was left out of the party altogether, or to 11-1 Arizona, who was ranked No. 7 but was overlooked in favor of 9-2 Florida.

Actually, upon closer examination of the final polls, this would have been a great year for a playoff. The only certainty was that Tennessee was No. 1. Kansas State (11-1) and Ohio State (10-1) would both have great claims to the No. 2 spot over 11-1 Florida State, and would have loved an opportunity to earn it on the field.

This is what the BCS Matchups would have looked like if a playoff had been instituted:

No. 1 Tennessee (12-0) vs. No. 8 Florida (9-2)
No. 2 Florida State (11-1) vs. No. 7 Arizona (11-1)
No. 3 Kansas State (11-1) vs. No. 6 Texas A&M (11-2)
No. 4 Ohio State (10-1) vs. No. 5 UCLA (10-1)

The only clear loser in the playoff hypothetical is Wisconsin, who made the actual BCS as the Big Ten Champion. A closer look, however, shows that Wisconsin was named Big Ten Champion as the result of a three-way tie with Michigan and Ohio State. Wisconsin never played Ohio State, and they actually lost to Michigan, a team that Ohio State beat.

Wisconsin would have been upset not to have been ranked over a two-loss Florida team, but that would be about the end of the controversy in this scenario.

1999

In 1999, the actual BCS Matchups were (with the winning team listed first):

Rose Bowl: No. 7 Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ) vs. No. 23 Stanford (Pac-10 Champ)
Orange Bowl: No. 8 Michigan (At-Large) vs. No. 4 Alabama (SEC Champion)
Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Nebraska (Big 12 Champ) vs. No. 5 Tennessee (At-Large)
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Florida State (ACC Champ, No. 1) vs. No. 2 Virginia Tech (Big East Champ, No. 2)

On the surface, the BCS did a great job, getting seven of the top eight teams in the BCS games, leaving only No.6 Kansas State out for the second year in a row. (Kansas State must have really hated this system way before the rest of the nation decided it was garbage.)

However, Kansas State wouldn't have been the only angry team. Marshall, at 12-0, led by future NFLer Chad Pennington, was ranked No. 12 at the end of the season. Ultimately, there's no real way to include Marshall, but their success (albeit in the MAC) should be noted.

As in 1998, the No. 1 team was pretty much undisputed, as Florida State was 11-0. Virginia Tech got in on the strength of their 10-1 record, something Nebraska (11-1) surely would have liked to contest in a playoff environment.

This is what the BCS Matchups would have looked like if a playoff had been instituted:

No. 1 Florida State (11-0) vs. No. 8 Michigan (9-2)
No. 2 Virginia Tech (10-1) vs. No. 7 Wisconsin (9-2)
No. 3 Nebraska (11-1) vs. No. 6 Kansas State (10-1)
No. 4 Alabama (10-2) vs. No. 5 Tennessee (9-2)

The biggest controversy in this scenario would be that Michigan State (9-2), who had beaten No. 8 Michigan earlier in the season, would be left out of the playoff because of their No. 9 ranking.

As in 1998, the only real controversy in the playoff format is about who the No. 8 team should be, as three teams (Michigan, Michigan State, and Marshall) would all have had legitimate claims to the ranking. All things considered, however, this is not an enormous problem, and not nearly as big a controversy as those in the actual system.

2000

In 2000, the actual BCS Matchups were (with the winning team listed first):

Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Oregon State (At-Large) vs. No. 11 Notre Dame (At-Large)
Rose Bowl: No. 4 Washington (Pac 10 Champ) vs. No. 14 Purdue (Big Ten Champ)
Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Miami (Big East Champ) vs. No. 7 Florida (SEC Champ)
Orange Bowl: No. 1 Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ, No. 1) vs. No. 2 Florida State (ACC Champ, No. 2)

Again, on paper it would seem the BCS did a pretty good job on its own of getting most of the top eight teams in, managing to get six of the top eight involved. The only teams left out were No. 5 Virginia Tech and No. 8 Nebraska.

Virginia Tech had beaten both of the at-large teams selected over them, No. 11 Notre Dame and No. 6 Oregon State. And the controversy didn't end there.

Third-ranked Miami (10-1), despite being ranked No. 2 in the AP and Coaches' polls and having beaten No. 2 Florida State (11-1) in the regular season, was left on the outside looking in, as was No. 4 Washington (10-1), who felt like they deserved a shot at the title, having beaten No. 3 Miami and No. 6 Oregon State. It was a mess.

This is what the BCS Matchups would have looked like if a playoff had been instituted:

No. 1 Oklahoma (12-0) vs. No. 8 Nebraska (9-2)
No. 2 Florida State (11-1) vs. No. 7 Florida (10-2)
No. 3 Miami (10-1) vs. No. 6 Oregon State (10-1)
No. 4 Washington (10-1) vs. No. 5 Virginia Tech (10-1)

The eight-team playoff system seems like it would have been the perfect solution to the BCS problem of 2000. The only hiccup, ironically enough, would be that Kansas State would complain about being ranked No. 9 in the BCS despite having beaten No. 8 Nebraska in the regular season.

2001

In 2001, the actual BCS Matchups were (with the winning team listed first):

Orange Bowl: No. 5 Florida (At-Large) vs. No. 10 Maryland (ACC Champ)
Sugar Bowl: No. 13 LSU (SEC Champ) vs. No. 8 Illinois (Big Ten Champ)
Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Oregon (Pac 10 Champ) vs. No. 3 Colorado (Big 12 Champ)
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Miami (Big East Champ, No. 1) vs. No. 2 Nebraska (At-Large, No. 2)

Before you even look at the other bowl matchups, you can see "At-Large" next to Nebraska and know things got controversial in 2001. And you'd be right.

Despite Colorado's convincing 62-36 beatdown of Nebraska in the last game of the season, not to mention Colorado winning the Big 12 Championship the next week, Nebraska (11-1) was chosen ahead of Colorado (10-2) because they had fewer losses.

And don't forget Oregon, who slid to No. 4 by the end of the year despite winning the Pac-10 and being ranked No. 2 in the "human" polls.

Sixth-ranked Tennessee and No. 7 Texas were left out in favor of conference champions Maryland (10-1) and LSU (9-3), but there was almost too much controversy at the top for people to really care about the slighted Vols and Longhorns.

This is what the BCS Matchups would have looked like if a playoff had been instituted:

No. 1 Miami (11-0) vs. No. 8 Illinois (10-1)
No. 2 Nebraska (11-1) vs. No. 7 Texas (10-2)
No. 3 Colorado (10-2) vs. No. 6 Tennessee (10-2)
No. 4 Oregon (10-1) vs. No. 5 Florida (9-2)

Insert the playoff and all the problems are solved. The No. 9 team, Stanford, was 9-2 and actually ranked 11 in the "human" polls, so there really is no controversy outside of these pairings.

2002

In 2002, the actual BCS Matchups were (with the winning team listed first):

Rose Bowl: No. 7 Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ) vs. No. 6 Washington State (Pac-10 Champ)
Orange Bowl: No. 5 USC (At-Large) vs. No. 4 Iowa (At-Large)
Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Georgia (SEC Champ) vs. No. 14 Florida State (ACC Champ)
Fiesta BowlNo. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten Champ, No. 2) vs. No. 1 Miami (Big East Champ, No. 1)

This seems to be the BCS's best year. You have an undisputed (at least if you leave Trev Alberts out of the discussion) title game featuring the only two undefeated teams in college football. You have the top seven teams involved, only leaving out No. 8 Kansas State (and giving Kansas State their third BCS snub in five years). You also have matchups you never would have had before the BCS was introduced.

This is what the BCS Matchups would have looked like if a playoff had been instituted:

No. 1 Miami (12-0) vs. No. 8 Kansas State (10-2)
No. 2 Ohio State (13-0) vs. No. 7 Oklahoma (11-2)
No. 3 Georgia (12-1) vs. No. 6 Washington State (10-2)
No. 4 Iowa (11-1) vs. No. 5 USC (10-2)

The playoff would've included Kansas State, which would've been nice to them, but really not a whole lot would change. The BCS would lose one of its greatest games ever, the 2002 Fiesta Bowl, but of course there is the chance that Ohio State and Miami would win their first two games in the playoff to set up the inevitable matchup (though it would be nearly impossible to duplicate the classic that actually occurred).

2003

In 2003, the actual BCS Matchups were (with the winning team listed first):

Fiesta Bowl: No. 5 Ohio State (At-Large) vs. No. 10 Kansas State (Big 12 Champ)
Rose Bowl: No. 3 USC (Pac 10 Champ) vs. No. 4 Michigan (Big Ten Champ)
Orange Bowl: No. 9 Miami (Big East Champ) vs. No. 7 Florida State (ACC Champ)
Sugar Bowl: No. 2 LSU (SEC Champ, No. 2) vs. No. 1 Oklahoma (At-Large, No. 1)

The BCS did a great job of getting top teams involved in 2003, but it became inevitable, once again, that there was going to be controversy, as three BCS schools (Oklahoma, LSU, USC) finished their seasons with one loss.

Only two teams were getting invited to the Sugar Bowl, and to make matters worse, two non BCS schools (Utah and Miami (OH)) finished with one loss but were left out of the BCS altogether.

Before everyone starts stabbing the BCS in the back for the controversies of 2003, we need to take a step back and realize that a playoff would have actually introduced even more controversy.

This is what the BCS Matchups would have looked like if a playoff had been instituted:

No. 1 Oklahoma (12-1) vs. No. 8 Tennessee (10-2)
No. 2 LSU (12-1) vs. No. 7 Florida State (10-2)
No. 3 USC (11-1) vs. No. 6 Texas (10-2)
No. 4 Michigan (10-2) vs. No. 5 Ohio State (10-2)

The controversy in the hypothetical playoff scenario comes when you look at teams ranked 9, 10, and 11 in the BCS: Miami (10-2), Kansas State (11-3), and Miami (OH) (12-1).

How do you justify the exclusion of the Big East Champ (Miami) in favor of a two-loss at-large (Ohio State)?

How do you justify the exclusion of Kansas State, who just destroyed Oklahoma 35-7 in the Big 12 title game?

Is it fair that Miami (OH), because it plays in a non-BCS conference, is excluded with its one loss over five teams with two losses?

The only real solution to this problem is possibly a 12-team playoff instead of an eight-team playoff, but that only opens the door to more controversy, not only in 2003 but in other years as well.

It's just not a good solution.

Yes, there was a lot of controversy in 2003, but having a playoff wouldn't have been any prettier than what the BCS came up with. At the end of the day, we need to just acknowledge that 2003 was an anomaly, and we shouldn't make judgments about the BCS or a potential playoff system based on the freak occurrence that was 2003.

2004

In 2004, the actual BCS Matchups were (with the winning team listed first):

Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Utah (At-Large) vs. No. 21 Pittsburgh (Big East Champ)
Rose Bowl: No. 4 Texas (At-Large) vs. No. 13 Michigan (Big Ten Champ)
Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Auburn (SEC Champ) vs. No. 8 Virginia Tech (ACC Champ)
Orange Bowl: No. 1 USC (Pac Ten Champ, No. 1) vs. No. 2 Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ, No. 2)

As in most previous years, the BCS did a great job of creating unique matchups among the top teams in the nation, and for the first time a non-BCS conference team (Utah) was invited.

Unfortunately, there was trouble all around the BCS.

The season ended with five teams undefeated: USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah, and Boise State. Of course, only two teams would be invited to Miami to play for the BCS Title. USC and Oklahoma were invited, leaving Auburn, the only remaining BCS-conference undefeated team, out.

As for the non-BCS conference teams...Utah was invited to the Fiesta Bowl (as the No. 6 team in the BCS they were guaranteed an invite) but Boise State (12-0) and their No. 9 BCS ranking were left out.

It was disappointing for Boise State to be left out, but it becomes very difficult to justify their inclusion over No. 4 Texas' (10-1) at-large bid. So Boise State's issue isn't really a controversy unless the playoff format was in place.

This is what the BCS matchups would have looked like if a playoff had been instituted:

No. 1 USC (12-0) vs. No. 8 Virginia Tech (10-2)
No. 2 Oklahoma (12-0) vs. No. 7 Georgia (9-2)
No. 3 Auburn (12-0) vs. No. 6 Utah (11-0)
No. 4 Texas (10-1) vs. No. 5 California (10-1)

Of course, this situation gives Auburn a chance to play their way to the BCS Title Game like they (and the rest of the nation) wanted. But, it leaves out the fifth undefeated team, Boise State, who is sitting just outside at No. 9.

Virginia Tech won their last eight games of the season after losing early to USC and NC State, and Georgia lost games to two ranked teams, but even still it becomes hard to argue that Boise State didn't deserve to play more than either of those two teams.

In 2004, the playoff would have solved the bottleneck at the top, but still would have left people a little unsatisfied.

2005

In 2005, the actual BCS Matchups were (with the winning team listed first):

Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Ohio State (At-Large) vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (At-Large)
Sugar Bowl: No. 11 West Virginia (Big East Champ) vs. No. 7 Georgia (SEC Champ)
Orange Bowl: No. 3 Penn State (Big Ten Champ) vs. No. 22 Florida State (ACC Champ)
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Texas (Big 12 Champ, No. 2) vs. No. 1 USC (Pac 10 Champ, No. 1)

Like in 2002, the BCS gave college football the matchup it wanted in the title game. Texas and USC were the only two undefeated teams in College Football, and there was no real cry for anyone else to play.

The BCS was hurt by the weakness of the ACC and Big East (and as a result, the low rankings of Florida State and West Virginia), and the exclusion of No. 5 Oregon from the BCS in favor of We-Refuse-To-Join-A-Conference-We've-Got-NBC No. 6 Notre Dame was a mistake, but all in all the BCS did all it really could do in 2005.

This is what the BCS Matchups would have looked like if a playoff had been instituted:

No. 1 USC (12-0) vs. No. 8 Miami (9-2)
No. 2 Texas (12-0) vs. No. 7 Georgia (10-2)
No. 3 Penn State (10-1) vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (9-2)
No. 4 Ohio State (9-2) vs. No. 5 Oregon (10-1)

There's no real change in the playoff, except for getting rid of unworthy Florida State and West Virginia from the equation. Oregon is now involved, which is nice, but at the end of the day a playoff would have been trying to fix something that didn't need to be fixed in the first place.

Also, as in 2002, the BCS would have lost one of its greatest games ever, the classic Rose Bowl matchup between Texas and USC. They likely would have still played for the title, but duplicating the magic of the 2006 Rose Bowl would be nearly impossible.

2006

In 2006, the actual BCS Matchups were (with the winning team listed first):

Sugar Bowl: No. 4 LSU (At-Large) vs. No. 11 Notre Dame (At-Large)
Orange Bowl: No. 6 Louisville (Big East Champ) vs. No. 14 Wake Forest (ACC Champ)
Fiesta Bowl: No. 8 Boise State (At-Large) vs. No. 10 Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ)
Rose Bowl: No. 5 USC (Pac 10 Champ) vs. No. 3 Michigan (At-Large)
BCS Title Game: No. 2 Florida (SEC Champ, No. 2) vs. No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten Champ, No. 1)

Introducing the extra bowl game to the BCS slate brought immediate success, with seven of the top eight teams playing in BCS bowls in 2006. Only No. 7 Wisconsin (11-1) was left out because the Big Ten already had two participants.

However, that is not to say there wasn't a fair amount of controversy.

In the final Big Ten game of season, No. 1 Ohio State beat No. 2 Michigan in a great 42-39 game, giving Michigan its first loss of the season. Was that three-point road loss worth dropping Michigan in the rankings? At first, pollsters didn't think so, and Michigan remained No. 2 in the BCS.

After the SEC Championship, however, pollsters forgot all about Michigan's great season and voted them out of the BCS title game, fearing a rematch with Ohio State. There's no way to avoid the fact that a playoff would have definitely settled that mini-controversy.

This is what the BCS Matchups would have looked like if a playoff had been instituted:

No. 1 Ohio State (12-0) vs. No. 8 Boise State (12-0)
No. 2 Florida (11-1) vs. No. 7 Wisconsin (11-1)
No. 3 Michigan (11-1) vs. No. 6 Louisville (11-1)
No. 4 LSU (10-2) vs. No. 5 USC (10-2)

Clearly, Florida and Michigan would be presented with the opportunity of seeing which team deserved to play Ohio State (assuming all parties involved would win the necessary games). Again, however, the Fiesta Bowl classic between Boise State and Oklahoma would be lost, but all in all a playoff scenario would definitely have been a better way of determining the 2006 champion.

2007

In 2000, the actual BCS Matchups were (with the winning team listed first):

Sugar Bowl: No. 5 Georgia (At-Large) vs. No. 10 Hawaii (At-Large)
Orange Bowl: No. 8 Kansas (At-Large) vs. No. 3 Virginia Tech (ACC Champ)
Fiesta Bowl: No. 9 West Virginia (Big East Champ) vs. No. 4 Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ)
Rose Bowl: No. 7 USC ( PAC 10 Champ) vs. No. 13 Illinois (At-Large)
BCS Title Game: No. 2 LSU (SEC Champ, No. 2) vs. No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten Champ, No. 1)

In 2007, nine of the top 10 teams were invited to the BCS (an impressive figure). Only No. 6 Missouri (11-2) was left out, in favor of No. 8 Kansas, who was enjoying the most successful year in the history of their program.

The controversy wasn't too major, and even if Missouri had been invited it would have been at the expense of Kansas, so there was no real way of getting around it.

The only controversy at the top of the standings had to do with who deserved the No. 2 spot. The general consensus was the Ohio State, with only one loss, deserved the top spot, but with several teams with two losses, who got to go to New Orleans?

While there are arguments for other teams, it was LSU who was invited. Their argument was strengthened by their early season domination of No. 3 Virginia Tech.

This is what the BCS Matchups would have looked like if a playoff had been instituted:

No. 1 Ohio State (11-1) vs. No. 8 Kansas (11-1)
No. 2 LSU (11-2) vs. No. 7 USC (10-2)
No. 3 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. No. 6 Missouri (11-2)
No. 4 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. No. 5 Georgia (10-2)

Unfortunately, this doesn't really solve anything, but rather introduces more controversy. Sitting at No. 10 in the BCS is undefeated Hawaii, getting no love as a small school, whereas there are six two-loss teams that are ranked above the undefeated Rainbow Warriors (if you include No. 9 West Virginia).

In the "Year of the Upset," there really wasn't too much controversy when the BCS bowl games were announced.

If there had been a playoff scenario, however, then there would have been cries throughout the country that Hawaii, a small school not in a BCS conference, was getting punished for playing what was perceived by some to be a weak schedule.

It's important to study the first 10 years of the BCS so that we can anticipate problems that could occur in the future.

Having studied the first decade of college football under the BCS, it does appear that we would have been better off with a playoff system from the beginning.

Yes, we would have lost great games such as the 2003 Fiesta Bowl, the 2006 Rose Bowl, and the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, but who knows how many classic games just like those three we could have missed by not having a playoff system.

The first 10 years of the BCS saw a lot of controversies. And while it does appear a playoff system would be a giant step forward in determining a national champion, advocates of a playoff system need to be careful.

Like the BCS, a potential playoff system would have its fair share of controversies. Just because a playoff solves some of the BCS controversies doesn't mean it doesn't create problems of its own.

There's no perfect system, but a playoff does beat the politics of the current system.

Ten Things That Will Happen This Weekend: Week 13

Ned Dutton — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 05:45:24 -0500

It's Friday afternoon, and I write this week coming off one of my best weeks of predictions to date. I got seven out of 10 last week, but it seemed much closer than that. I was only 11 Donald Brown rushing yards, 34 more yards from the Navy offense, and three Boise State scoring drives away from going a perfect 10 for 10.

Okay, so maybe I wasn't that close. But it was close enough, especially after my Week Nine debacle.

For those who haven't read this before, or who maybe have forgotten over the past two weeks, each week I make 10 random predictions for the upcoming weekend of college football.

Sometimes the predictions are stat-based, sometimes results-based, but either way they are designed just to make the weekend a little more fun to watch—especially if you're stuck watching a game you perhaps aren't that interested in.

Before I get to this week's predictions, let's take a look at how I did last week—obviously I got seven, but let's see what they were:

Ohio State and USC did get back at Illinois and Stanford, respectively, for their losses a year ago. (+1)
LSU definitely was wishing they played Troy earlier in the season. I said I didn't think Troy would win, but that they "will be a thorn in LSU's side for the better part of this game." I'd say I nailed that one. (+1)
Despite two successful onside kicks in the last 90 seconds of the game, Navy did not beat Notre Dame, ultimately falling short on the Notre Dame 34-yard line. (-1)
Shonn Greene rushed for 100 yards. Again. (+1)
Donald Brown needed 142 yards to reclaim the title of "nation's leading rusher" from Javon Ringer. He only got 131. It didn't matter anyway, because Shonn Greene and his 211 yards vaulted him past both Brown and Ringer. (-1)
Beanie Wells did indeed become the fifth all-time leading rusher in Ohio State history, and is now only 57 yards away from passing Keith Byars for fourth place. (+1)
Penn State's win, coupled with Florida State's loss, pushed JoePa's lead over Bobby Bowden in the all-time wins total to two games. (+1)
Boise State only had seven scoring drives, whereas Idaho miraculously scored 10 points. (-1)
Yale beat Princeton. I'd say more, but I don't know anything else. I even forget the score. (+1)
Corso donned the full Rattler suit, almost as if he had read my prediction and said to himself, "How can I make Ned right in the most over-the-top, hilariously excessive way imaginable?" (+1)

So that was last week. Pretty solid, but hopefully I'll improve on it this week and get more than seven. It's rivalry week, so you'll have to pardon the special attention I give to College Football's great rivalries, even if they are pretty meaningless this year (Apple Cup, anyone?).

So, without further ado, here are Ten Things That Will Happen This Weekend.

1. Rich Rodriguez will break the streak.

No, I'm not talking about the four-game losing streak Michigan has against Ohio State. Quite the opposite, in fact.

The last six Michigan head coaches have all beaten Ohio State in their first try. Rich Rodriguez will not continue that trend. Ohio State is a much better football team, and if you read the article I wrote earlier in the week, you will know I do not think Rodriguez has the attitude to win The Game. That poor attitude will be reflected in his team's play.

2. Terrelle Pryor will pick up where Troy Smith left off against Michigan.

In his three games against Michigan, Troy Smith secured his legend at Ohio State by going 3-0 and accumulating 1,151 total yards (fun fact: Michigan accumulated 1,051 yards against Troy Smith's Buckeyes) in The Game.

Now it's Pryor's turn to start writing his name in the Buckeye history book. Forget what Pryor has done in his first seven games as starter this year, even though it is quite impressive. Forget that Pryor is currently first in the Big Ten in passing efficiency.

Ohio State fans remember The Game, and Pryor can take a big step in becoming an iconic Quarterback at Ohio State by stepping up big against Michigan.

My prediction is this: 250+ all-purpose yards and at least two touchdowns from Pryor. Ohio State will hit Michigan early and often with a more-than-healthy dose of Beanie Wells, but Pryor will have a great game.

3. Washington will win!

This is my fourth time predicting a Washington win this year, and despite being 0-3 so far with this team, I'm really feeling it this weekend. I know that's a really weak excuse, but this is like picking an Ivy League game. If nothing else, this should provide a good enough explanation for my pick:

They're playing Washington State.

4. Cal will beat Stanford.

Both teams are limping into "The Big Game," with both teams riding two-game losing streaks into Saturday. There lies a major difference, however, in these two teams. Cal is decent. Stanford really isn't—two of their four wins came against Washington and Wazzu, and there's no way Stanford could beat Oregon State again.

Cal's inconsistent decency prevails over Stanford's consistent ineptitude.

5. The Land Grant Trophy will go home with JoePa.

This is a tough one. Penn State hasn't been the same since the win over Ohio State, but the Spread HD is still lurking and the game is in Happy Valley.

On the other side, Michigan State's offense is set up by Javon Ringer. Unfortunately, that may not get them very far, as the physical season is starting to wear down Ringer. Penn State's defense is 10th in the nation against the run, so it could be a long day for Michigan State.

6. Javon Ringer, Shonn Greene, and Donald Brown will accumulate 425 rushing yards.

You know they are the three leading rushers in College Football, but you may not know only 48 yards separate these three backs on the season. Each man is averaging at least 140 rushing yards per game, and with the end in sight, each looks to finish the season strong.

Javon Ringer looks to have the worst statistical game of the three, against Penn State's defense, or else the prediction would be a little higher.

7. Graham Harrell and Sam Bradford will combine for 800 passing yards.

The Big 12 gave us a week off to collect ourselves, but this Saturday night features another promising Top Five matchup to enjoy. Graham Harrell and the ridiculous Texas Tech offense against Sam Bradford and the ridiculous Oklahoma offense, with the winner likely asserting himself as the Heisman favorite.

On the year, Texas Tech and Oklahoma are averaging 433 and 355 passing yards per game, respectively, and this weekend should be no different.

8. BYU will spoil Utah's season.

For the first half of the season, it looked like BYU would be the BCS spoiler this year. A trip to TCU ended those dreams, and now BYU can upset Utah in The Holy War for a share of the Mountain West title.

9. Joe Tiller will win his last game.

Things have been less than ideal for Purdue, who entered the season with high hopes coming into the season that rested mostly on the shoulders (and arm) of Curtis Painter. Purdue started 2-1 but have lost seven of their last eight since, and Tiller is now one game away from retirement.

Purdue hosts Indiana this weekend, which is fitting, because that is a team Purdue can beat—and a coach like Tiller deserves to go out on a win.

10. Corso will pick Oklahoma.

This is a big game, which means Corso is unusually unpredictable, so this is essentially a coin flip. I'm going with Corso pulling a "not so fast, my friends" to those saying Texas Tech is going to outshoot the Sooners and dramatically revealing a ridiculous Sooner Schooner hat.

Rich Rodriguez Doesn't Have the Attitude to Beat Ohio State

Ned Dutton — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 16:54:25 -0500

A new chapter in the greatest rivalry in sports will begin this Saturday when Ohio State and Michigan take the field. For the first time since 1995, Lloyd Carr will not be coaching the Maize and Blue. Instead, Rich Rodriguez will be exposed to the greatest spectacle in college football for the first time.

Forget, for a week, that Michigan is 3-8. Forget that Ohio State is favored by 19 points. Those numbers are meaningless—this is Ohio State-Michigan.

A win for Ohio State gives them a fourth consecutive Big Ten title. A win for Michigan saves their season, and gives the program momentum going into recruiting and the offseason as they prepare for next year.

Ohio State is playing for a BCS Bowl. Michigan is playing their bowl game.

No active player on Michigan has beaten Ohio State. Ohio State's seniors are looking for their fourth pair of Gold Pants.

Fans could go on all day like this, listing story lines to focus on in preparation for the game. Instead of spitting irrelevant facts and numbers out all week, however, let's take a deeper look at something ultimately more important: This is Rich Rodriguez's first Ohio State-Michigan game.

Sure, Jim Tressel got his team fired up for the win in his first try. Lloyd Carr somehow got Tim Biakabutuka to channel his inner Barry Sanders to pull the amazing upset in his first year.

There's something those two coaches (as well as all-time greats Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler) had in common that made them successful, and it's the thing Rodriguez shares with John Cooper, the Ohio State coach whose failures against "That Team Up North" were responsible for his firing: their attitude.

The day Jim Tressel was hired as coach of the Buckeyes, he appeared at an Ohio State home basketball game and introduced himself to his new community, saying, "I can assure you that you will be proud of your young people in the classroom, in the community, and most especially in 310 days in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on the football field."

Lloyd Carr didn't quite make the public statement Tressel did, but he did establish a list of priorities for his Michigan program that stressed beating Ohio State above all else. And, it worked—Carr won his first three games against Ohio State, and ended up 5-1 against John Cooper before Cooper was fired.

Year after year, John Cooper recruited fantastic talent to the Olentangy, but year after year National Title and Rose Bowl aspirations were shattered by Michigan teams who simply valued the game more.

Plain and simple, John Cooper was fired because he treated The Michigan Game like it was "just another game," and his players reflected this passive attitude regarding the most important game of the season.

So, where will Rodriguez fit in? Will he give The Game the respect it deserves? We'll find out on Saturday. But so far, Rodriguez has not given the Michigan faithful any reason to think he knows what he is in for this Saturday.

Like Tressel, Rodriguez addressed his new fan base at a Michigan home basketball game soon after he was hired. Everyone in attendance knew what Tressel had done, given the same platform, seven years before.

Rodriguez was not only supposed to introduce himself to Michigan fans; he was supposed to welcome himself to The Rivalry in a big way. In front of him were thousands of Michigan fans who had suffered through Jim Tressel's powerful 6-1 domination of Lloyd Carr, and these fans wanted some sign that change was coming.

So what did Rodriguez do? Nothing. "I'm not going to make predictions," Rodriguez said. The most he could definitively say to his Maize and Blue audience was that Michigan would "play hard and they will play physical" next year.

Swing and a miss.

As time has gone on, and Michigan's season has become worse, Rodriguez has still not given Michigan fans a valid reason to think he respects the magnitude of The Ohio State Game.

After losing a school-record eighth game to Northwestern this past weekend, Rodriguez said this about The Game: "If we play well and happen to win, it wouldn't salvage the whole season."

If you know nothing else about Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler, Jim Tressel, or Lloyd Carr, know that none of them would have ever uttered that sentence.

Michigan is down this year. There's no way around it. There's only one more game on the schedule, and it's The Big Game, so everything else that has happened to Michigan this year is irrelevant for a week.

A win over Ohio State doesn't just dampen the blow of Michigan's worst year ever; it eliminates it. Michigan's players know it. Michigan's fans know it. Until Michigan's coach realizes it, however, and changes his approach accordingly, Michigan doesn't have a chance.

A new chapter begins this Saturday for the greatest rivalry in sports, but unfortunately for Michigan it's going to sound a lot like the end of the last chapter.

Ten Things That Will Happen This Weekend: Week 12

Ned Dutton — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 05:09:28 -0500

It's been a couple weeks, but I am back and ready for more humiliation with my weekly list of predictions. The last time out I performed pretty miserably, but let me assure you, it was not embarrassment, but rather my life, that got in the way of making these predictions these past two weeks. Things are slowing down, so here I am.

For those who haven't read this before, or who maybe have forgotten over the past two weeks, each week I make 10 random predictions for the upcoming weekend of college football.

Early in the year, I challenged Tim Tebow to a competition: his passing touchdowns vs. my correct predictions. As my predictions have become less accurate, however, Tebow has accumulated a ridiculous lead. With the terrible effort of my last set of predictions, coupled with two weeks off, I have to admit Tebow has an insurmountable lead.

Congratulations, Mr. Tebow. I concede.

Now that that's out of the way, we can get right to this week's predictions...so here are Ten Things That Will Happen This Weekend.

1. Revenge will be sweet for USC and Ohio State.

Last year was the Year of the Upset, and come Saturday two major-college programs will get a chance to avenge key losses from a year ago.

Last year, Vegas called Stanford's upset of USC the biggest college football upset of all time. Lightning will not strike twice. USC's defense just might outscore Stanford, and Pete Carroll will make it hurt for the Cardinal.

Illinois' victory over Ohio State last year was not as big as Stanford's or Appalachian State's, but it was still pretty important. Ohio State was undefeated and number one in the nation, and Juice Williams and Co. marched in and shocked the Buckeyes. It wasn't enough to keep Ohio State out of the BCS title game, but it was enough to vault Illinois into the Rose Bowl.

Illinois' resurgence was a pretty nice story, but with the loss last week to Western Michigan, the story is all but over. The Illibuck trophy will head back to the 614.

2. LSU is going to wish they played Troy earlier in the season.

Don't get me wrong: I'm not predicting Troy to win. I'm just saying LSU is down right now, and Troy's offense (430 yards per game) may prove a lot trickier to this LSU team than it would have in Week Two, when these teams were supposed to play (before Hurricane Ike postponed the game).

Over the past 10 weeks, Troy's offense has gotten better, and LSU's defense has become a little inconsistent. The game is at LSU, which is obviously a huge plus, but Troy will be a thorn in LSU's side for the better part of this game.

3. Navy will beat Notre Dame.

In his weekly score predictions last week on SI.com, Stewart Mandel picked Boston College to beat Notre Dame, and he provided the following explanation: "Notre Dame is playing a team with a winning record. Enough said."

While I like Mandel's philosophy, I feel compelled to provide a little more support for my prediction this week. Here's some support: Navy rushes the ball for 300 yards per game.

The last/only time Notre Dame has seen a running attack like the one they will see on Saturday was when Javon Ringer strolled through their defense for 201 yards. Navy has a better rushing attack than Michigan State. Sorry, Charlie.

4. Shonn Greene will rush for 100 yards.

Greene is 10/10 this year, rushing for 100+ every time Iowa has hit the field. As Forrest Gump would say, that's all I have to say about that.

5. Donald Brown will reclaim the title of "nation's leading rusher."

Javon Ringer and Michigan State are off this week, so Ringer will have to stay at 1,548 yards for another week. Donald Brown, on the other hand, takes his 1,406 yards into a game against Syracuse, and he looks to be in good shape to reclaim the title he held for the early part of this year.

Syracuse gives up 203 yards per game on the ground, which is music to UConn's ears. Brown is all the Huskies have had since losing starting quarterback Tyler Lorenzen in Week Five, so look for this game to be a good confidence booster for a UConn team looking for a January bowl game, as well as for a great running back looking for a rushing title.

6. Beanie Wells will become the fifth-leading rusher in Ohio State history.

With 2,999 yards in an injury-plagued career, Beanie Wells sits 122 yards behind Pepe Pearson in the statistical hierarchy of Ohio State running backs. Illinois doesn't have a great rush defense (giving up 142 rushing yards per game), and Beanie has been stellar in his road games this season (168 at Wisconsin, 140 at Michigan State, 140 at Northwestern—note all those teams were ranked when Ohio State played them).

With Ohio State slowly but surely opening up the playbook for Pryor to throw the ball more, Illinois will have to respect the pass just enough to give Beanie some great chances to have another great game.

7. Joe Paterno will increase his lead over Bobby Bowden to two games.

A little background: Three weeks ago, Joe Paterno got his 381st win when Penn State beat Ohio State. Florida State's victory over Virginia Tech on the same day gave Bowden win number 379, but unfortunately Bowden couldn't win on Penn State's bye week, which meant the lead was still only two going into last weekend.

Obviously, Penn State's loss to Iowa kept JoePa at 381, but Florida State beat Clemson 41-27, slipping Bowden to within only one of Paterno.

This week, Paterno's lead will go back to two wins. Penn State, still hot and bothered from last week's debacle, will come out strong and demolish a weak Indiana.

Florida State, on the other hand, plays a Boston College team fresh off their big win over Notre Dame a week ago. Boston College has had a rough season this year, but their wins over Notre Dame and Virginia Tech are proof that BC is a team that can pull off the upset.

8. Boise State will have more scoring drives than Idaho has points.

Boise State can see the BCS waiting for them, and they are not going to let anyone get in between them and their goal, least of all pathetic Idaho. Idaho has the third-worst defense in the nation, allowing 478 yards and 42 points per game.

There's no point in predicting just a Boise State victory...I need to spice this up a bit. Boise State will so thoroughly dominate Idaho that the Broncos will have more scoring drives than Idaho has points.

I tried a similar prediction in the Penn State-Syracuse game earlier this season, but I am much more confident this time around.

9. Yale will beat Princeton.

I've made a lot of bad predictions this year—I'll be the first to admit it. I am, however, undefeated in Ivy League predictions. Here's another one. Don't let me down, Yale.

10. Corso will pick Florida A&M.

The GameDay crew is in Tallahassee this week for the Hampton-Florida A&M game. I don't know much about these teams, but I do know enough about Corso to think that he really likes the idea of donning a Rattler costume.

Ten Things That Will Happen This Weekend: Week Nine

Ned Dutton — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 09:57:04 -0400

Another Friday, another fresh slate of predictions for the upcoming slate of College Football games. Before I get to this week, however, let's take a look at how I did last week (while Tim Tebow was taking another Bye Week):

Texas won. (+1)
Jeremy Maclin did not score once. That means he did not score twice. (-1)
I'm giving myself the point here. Ohio State jumped out to a 21-0 lead with a balanced attack of luck, rushing, and - as I predicted - Terrelle Pryor's arm. If you want to attack me here, go ahead, but a) I think it's rather pointless, since I'm the one awarding points and b) I'll defend myself in the comments as necessary. (+1)
Graham Harrell threw for 450 yards. I'm not a math scholar, but 450 > 350. *Point* (+1)
Penn State forced five good possessions of anxiety out of their faithful. Unfortunately for me, anxiety-producing possessions are not the same thing as turnovers. (-1)
Boise State and their blue field stayed in the BCS game. (+1)
LSU won. (-1)
So did Pitt. (-1)
Harvard beat Lehigh, thanks to a last-minute red-zone interception. I actually watched the fourth quarter of this one on TV, it was a pretty good game. (+1)
Corso picked Texas, but did not successfully pick up any cheerleaders (what, did you think he was in Ann Arbor?). (+1)

Not my worst week yet, but still not great. I needed to pounce on Tebow while he wasn't playing, but...not so much. 6/10 equals +2 points, which means the updated scoreboard reads:

Tim Tebow: 10
Ned Dutton: 2

Eh. Slowly but surely, I'm coming back. Kind of like Ohio State. But that's too scary an image for most people, so let's change that to Seabiscuit. "Here comes Seabiscuit!" - I like the ring of that.

Anyway, on to this week. Here are Ten Things That Will Happen This Weekend:

1. Ohio State will win the turnover margin.

I'm not going to tell you what you already know - that turnovers are crucial in big games (wait...maybe I just did). What I am going to tell you instead is that Saturday night's big game features two of the nation's best in forcing turnovers.

Ohio State is +12 on the season, coughing it up 9 nines compared to forcing (or being given *cough*Michigan State*cough) 21 turnovers. Penn State, on the other hand, is only +3, with 11 takeaways and 8 giveaways.

The Silver Bullets have been clicking for the past couple of weeks, and while Penn State will find ways to earn yards and points against the Buckeye D, they will also cough it up a couple of times.

2. LeBron James will be shown on the sidelines.

I made a similar prediction about the USC game, about how many celebrities ABC would show during the game, but ABC completely failed me and didn't show any.

Most people would abandon ship and say, 'Hey, maybe ABC has this new policy where they actually try to focus on the game.' Not me. This is LeBron James we're talking about, people - not Will Ferrell.

3. Malcolm Jenkins will be the most valuable player on the field wearing the number 2.

Okay, this is my third Ohio State-Penn State prediction. I know that, but hopefully you can give me a break. I bleed scarlet and gray, and I can't write these predictions without focusing primarily on this game.

Anyway, you may know that Terrelle Pryor wears the number 2. So does Malcolm Jenkins. So does Derrick Williams. All three will get their chances to shine Saturday night, but at the end of the game Jenkins will have made the most positive impact for his team.

Jenkins is quietly having a stellar season, especially the past couple of weeks. On the year, he is Ohio State's fourth leading tackler (behind the Linebackers, but who can blame him there), he leads the team in INTS (3), Pass Breakups (5), and fumbles forced (2), he has blocked a punt, and he has 1 sack and 3.5 TFL.

Jenkins was a first-round draft pick last year, but stayed in school and has really improved all aspects of his game. He is a star, and he will show it tomorrow night.

4. Oklahoma State will be humbled.

I'm going to get right to the point. Texas is going to beat Oklahoma State, and it will not be pretty.

Texas is good, yes, but more importantly I'm not sold on Oklahoma State. What's their only impressive win? That's right, they beat Missouri by five.

Texas beat Missouri by 25, but that's only because Texas threw on the Cruise Control after leading 35-3 at halftime.

Oklahoma State may be a good football team, but they will be humbled this week when they face a vastly superior opponent.

5. Georgia will play like the preseason number one we thought they were.

Georgia has been a better (read: more aesthetically pleasing) version of Ohio State this year: both were ranked high to start the season, slipped after unimpressive performances, lost a big game, and have been flying under the radar ever since.

Ohio State has looked mostly mediocre since their big loss, whereas Georgia has only looked pretty good. Now comes the meat of Georgia's schedule, and it's about time they showed us why we all thought before the season that they were going to be unstoppable.

6. Washington will beat Notre Dame.

I was on the Washington band wagon ever since the excessive celebration debacle, but after they lost to Stanford I said I was done with them.

Never underestimate the power of Notre Dame. If there's one team/one coach/one player, in the entire country who could restore my faith in Washington, it would be Notre Dame/ Charlie Weis/Jimmy Clausen.

I've said it before, I'll say it again-traveling to Washington is not easy. They have an impressive home field advantage, and this one's at night. Watch out, domers.

7. Kansas will beat Texas Tech.

Even SEC fans have to be impressed with how talented the Big 12 is this year. This prediction is not a condemnation of Texas Tech, but rather a testament to how strong the Big 12 is this year.

The Big 12, for better or worse, will take turns knocking each other out of the national title game over the next month and a half. It's already started, and it will continue tomorrow afternoon. Sorry, Graham-put up all the numbers you want.

8. Tulsa will score 50+ points.

They scored 70 last week against UTEP. They meet 2-4 UCF this week, and it's gonna get u-g-l-y.

9. Northwestern and Minnesota will both win, and will rise in the polls.

Lisa Horne wrote a good article this week pointing out some of the problems in the current polling system-if you haven't read it, you should.

In her article, Lisa raises many good points, but I'll just focus on one–that coaches (like, in the Big Ten), will blindly vote the teams in their conferences with good records over those with worse records, to boost their quality wins and help the conference at the same time.

That is ridiculous, and it is why Northwestern and Minnesota are ranked. Hey, pollsters, do you not remember when Northwestern got thrashed (pun, because they're Wildcats) by Michigan State? I do, yet because Michigan State got killed (pun - Spartans) by Ohio State last week, you put Northwestern above Michigan State.

Is it possible neither team was as good as you thought, and you're overlooking teams such as Virginia Tech, Ball State, or Boston College?

It doesn't matter, they won't listen to me. Northwestern and Minnesota play two more terrible teams this week (Indiana and Purdue, respectively), and they will win. And they will rise in the polls.

10. Lee Corso will pick Penn State.

Corso lives for moments when he can feel younger than he actually is (like last week, before he got universally turned down by the cheerleaders), so he'll pick the old guy (JoePa). If we're lucky, he'll put on one of those cute masks, even though Halloween isn't until next week.

Ten Things That Will Happen This Weekend: Week Eight

Ned Dutton — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 07:13:44 -0400

It's Friday, which means I have yet another chance to embarrass myself with 10 seemingly random and mostly unintelligent predictions for the weekend.

I took last weekend off (sorry), but I'm back this week ready to go. I've had my bye week to rest up and make adjustments, and Tebow is going down.

For those of you unfamiliar with this weekly column of mine (can I call it a column?), it's pretty easy to follow. I make 10 predictions for the week ahead. Not every prediction is related to the outcome of a game, and the 10th prediction each week is an attempt to guess who Corso will pick.

The following week, I see how I did, giving myself +1 for every correct answer and -1 for every incorrect answer.

As the season kicked off, I was doing pretty well, and I officially challenged Tim Tebow to see who could score more points/touchdowns. Tebow got off to a slow start, but he quickly caught up and held a commanding 8 to -2 lead going into Week Six. Let's see how I did last time (Week Six):

Shockingly (or perhaps not), there was no upset in the Big 12 two weeks ago. (-1)
Illinois beat Michigan. So did Toledo, but unfortunately I only picked Illinois, so while I don't get a point from Toledo's win, I did get to laugh a lot—and I hear laughing helps you live longer. So, yay me. (+1)
Jarrett Dillard scored a touchdown. In unrelated news, the sun set in the west. (+1)
Rice and Tulsa combined for more than 80 points. (+1)
Northwestern was ranked. They're not anymore, but they were, and that's what matters. (+1)
Terrelle Pryor showed Mark May he can handle the big stage. For those keeping track at home, you can also substitute "handle the big stage" with the phrases "take a sack," "go through his progressions twice before taking a sack," "refuse to throw the ball away," or "break open the occasional game-changing play that will convert thousands of Buckeye fans." (+1)
Beanie Wells had a fantastic game against Wisconsin, but no Heisman love—not that he (or anyone who misses three games) deserves any. (+1)
Javon Ringer finally stopped his one-man assault on Big Ten defenses for a week. (-1)
UConn/UNC was not very entertaining. I was disappointed. (-1)
Corso pulled the pump fake and decided atthelastminute (yeah, okay) not to pick Vanderbilt. Good call, coach. (-1)

So, 6/10. That brings me out of the negative numbers, at least. Tebow, on the other hand, threw two more touchdowns in Week Six, taking his count up to 10. Also, before anyone asks, since I did not participate in this last weekend, Tebow's numbers (which conveniently enough were good) will be overlooked and not counted.

After six weeks, the scoreboard reads:

Tim Tebow: 10
Ned Dutton: 0

Luckily for me, Tebow has another bye week this week—so the comeback is on. I'll just slowly whittle away at his lead, and before he knows it I will have taken my lead back once and for all (and, since I doubt he'll ever hear about this, this seems like a safe bet).

Without further ado, Ten Things That Will Happen This Weekend:

1. Texas will win.

I know some people think it's sexy to continue to pick the No. 1 team to lose (mostly because, for the past two seasons, the No. 1 team has lost a lot), but it's not happening this week.

I had faith in Texas before the Red River Shootout (which, by the way, is such an appropriate name for the game those two teams played last week), and I have faith in them now. That being said...

2. Jeremy Maclin will score twice.

I don't know how he's going to do it. Frankly, I don't care. He's amazing. Maybe he'll catch one. Maybe he'll return one. Maybe he'll run one. Heck, maybe he'll throw one. As I said, I think Missouri will lose, but not because of No. 9.

3. Ohio State will beat Michigan State on Terrelle Pryor's arm.

With Beanie Wells, Terrelle Pryor (the runner), and Javon Ringer in the same stadium, many expect this game to won on the ground. Not me.

I think Michigan State will beg Pryor to throw the ball by putting an army in the box to stop the run. After a couple of unsuccessful drives, I think Ohio State will open it up, and they will win not because of Pryor's or Wells' legs, but because of Pryor's passing ability and the skill of the Ohio State wide receivers.

The Ohio State defense would have a big part in the win too, but I'm just focusing on the offensive side of the ball.

4. Graham Harrell will throw for more than 350 yards.

It's been a while since I made a Graham Harrell prediction, but he's back. Harrell has fallen off a lot of Heisman short lists in the past couple of weeks, but in my imaginary Fantasy College Football league he's still a Top Five pick.

This week he goes up against Texas A&M, who actually has the No. 14 Pass Defense in the nation. You can tell I did my research, because my prediction was going to be 400 yards before I learned that the Aggies only give up 162 passing yards/game.

5. Penn State will force four turnovers.

I'm really torn on this one. Should I have worded it "Penn State will force four turnovers," or "Michigan will gift wrap four turnovers for Penn State"?

Penn State has 11 interceptions this year and is 18th nationally with a turnover margin of +1.14. Michigan has had eight passes picked off this year and is 114th nationally with a turnover margin of -1.33.

6. Boise State will not knock themselves out of the BCS conversation.

BYU ended its dream last night, leaving Boise State as the heir apparent (sorry, Utah, you just don't have the name recognition or the Statue of Liberty memories) to the title of "BCS Crasher." Boise State hosts last year's "BCS Crasher," Hawaii, this week, but Hawaii no longer has June Jones or Colt Brennan. Advantage: Boise State.

7. LSU will lose to South Carolina.

WHOA. You thought you could tell where this post was going, with pansy predictions lining up one after another. I bet I caught you off guard.

Is this such a ridiculous pick though? South Carolina boasts the nation's third-best defense, and Spurrier was born to coach under the lights on national TV. LSU could easily be looking ahead to UGA and Co. next week, and unless they fixed a lot of their defensive problems in practice this week, they could be in for a long night.

8. Navy will beat Pitt.

Navy is averaging 313 rushing yards per game. Pitt has a decent defense, but nothing that can slow down that attack. Navy will get ahead early, and run out the clock (literally) to an upset (does this count as an upset?) win at Pitt.

At the end of the game, Mark May will shed a single tear, and then man up and blame the outrageous loss on something irrational.

9. Harvard will beat Lehigh.

This marks my first Ivy League prediction. Enjoy it while it lasts.

As for the game, I don't know which team is better or who should win. But if any team can figure out how to win, you'd think it would be Harvard.

10. Corso will pick Texas.

Kirk told him if he picks the Longhorns, Corso will get to hang out with the cheerleaders.

Michigan is Saving Ohio State's Season

Ned Dutton — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 05:33:55 -0400

The 2008 season has not gone according to plan for the Ohio State Buckeyes; there's no way around it.

Ohio State was supposed to be ridiculous this year; that's why all those seniors came back.

This was the year when Ohio State was going to show the nation it can win the big game. This was Beanie Wells' year.

The defense was going to be unstoppable this year. The offensive line was going to be impenetrable this year.

Or...not.

Ohio State has certainly not been ridiculously good this year, even before the Catastrophe at the Coliseum. Remember, they actually dropped in the polls after their Week Two win over Ohio.

Ohio State went to SoCal and showed the nation what the nation already knew: Jim Tressel and Co. are incapable of winning the big games.

Wells has been spectacular this year, but with an enormous asterisk. He missed three games due to injury (including the USC game) and has just seemed spectacular because we know he's not at 100 percent, yet he's still averaging 120 yards per game (and 6.7 yards per carry).

This was his year to win the Heisman, yet he hasn't been in the conversation for a month.

The defense returned nine starters to what was the nation's best last year, yet through seven games, the Silver Bullets are pushing the bend-but-don't-break philosophy to its limit.

After getting thrashed by USC, they have played stronger the past couple of weeks, but they are still nowhere near preseason expectations.

With four starters back from last year's Offensive Line, this year's line looked to dominate opponents. They were going to open a couple holes for Beanie and be praised for his undressing of defenses. However, when Beanie had to sit out, and the linemen really had to perform, the O-Line lost its confidence.

Many programs would happily take a 6-1 record and Top 15 ranking, but Ohio State is not one of them. Ohio State fans are rabid, they want MORE, yet for some reason the Buckeye faithful are pretty calm.

They were complaining for awhile (after the USC game) about the quarterback situation, but when Pryor was given the starting nod, they shut up and have (for the most part) embraced the change, even though the concept of throwing the ball away is still foreign to Mr. Pryor.

Yes, Ohio State has not been good this year, yet there is peace and order within the Buckeye Nation. Where is the peace coming from, you may ask, what is keeping these fans from losing their minds?

The answer: Schadenfreude.

It's childish, perhaps, but for some reason Ohio State fans are overlooking the Buckeyes' problems in favor of highlighting and celebrating the struggles of Michigan.

It all started last year. Ohio State fans know the day: Sept. 1, 2007. Appalachian State goes into the Big House and upsets the fifth-ranked Wolverines. Never mind that Ohio State went undefeated in September. THIS was any Buckeye fan's favorite moment of the month.

Michigan lost to Oregon a week later, much to the delight of Buckeye fans. It didn't matter to Ohio State fans that Michigan won nine of their last 11 games (including a win over Florida, in Florida, in a bowl game).

They lost to Appalachian State. They lost to Oregon. Lloyd Carr became Llllloyd Carr, and by January he was out. Michigan was, in the eyes of Ohio State fans, hilariously bad at all they did, which included finding and hiring a new head coach.

Upon Rich Rodriguez's arrival in Ann Arbor, Ohio State fans were cautious not to make too much fun of TTUN (That Team Up North). Historically, it took a really bad year for teams coached by Rodriguez to succeed. Ohio State fans knew this.

They knew Michigan wasn't going to compete for a Big Ten title, and they knew that the harder they laughed this year, the harder it was going to be to swallow in a couple of years when Michigan was back to form.

But despite Buckeye fans' best efforts and intentions not to incessantly mock and scoff at Michigan, the Wolverines are just making it impossible not to:

Michigan lost another home opener, though this time they managed to schedule an FBS (D.I) team to beat them instead of an FCS (D.II) team.
Michigan lost to Notre Dame by 18 points while Charlie Weis was coaching Notre Dame.
Through five home games, Michigan is 2-3, and has been outscored at home 114-96. If Michigan doesn't win both their remaining home games (against Michigan State and Northwestern, games in which Michigan will probably not be favored), they will not have a winning record at home in 2008.
Rich Rodriguez's new offense (his trademark) is ranked 109th out of 119 teams (and is worst in the Big Ten), averaging 291.5 yards/game.
A month and a half into the season, Michigan has more turnovers (19) than touchdowns (14).
Michigan missed a 26-yard field goal to lose to Toledo. That sentence gets progressively more hilarious as you keep reading: "Hmm...Michigan missed a field goal. That's pretty funny, though I guess everyone misses field goals. *Keeps reading* Oh, haha, they missed a 26-yard field goal. That's embarrassing. *Keeps reading* Oh, no way. HAHAHAHA. Is that real? They missed a 26-yard field goal to lose to Toledo? That's freakin' hilarious!"
Zoltan Mesko. It doesn't matter that he's having a great season: his name is Zoltan.
This speaks for itself.
Again, this speaks for itself (courtesy: mobuck.com through thebuckeyebattlecry.com).

I believe what we have on display is Karma. Michigan fans got John Cooper. Ohio State fans, at least for the past couple of years, have been treated to a little taste of that Schadenfreude kool-aid. It couldn't come at a better time, either, because the kool-aid is a great distraction from a not-so-great football team.

Ohio State: Team Of The Millennium

Ned Dutton — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 16:43:11 -0400

[Note: The following is a transcript from a Press Conference that will be held January 12, 2009]

Jim Tressel: "I'd just like to thank all of you for showing up for this—I know it was last minute, but I can't wait any longer to make some announcements, I'm just too excited. As all of you know, we just got back from our little trip to Miami, and upon finally winning a National Title, I have a couple of things to say.

"First of all, I'd like to thank all of the loyal Buckeye fans out there who have stuck with us for the last few years. I know it's been tough, watching us lose those two National Championships, and I'm sure after the USC game this September things got tough as well. Well, it took us six years, but here we are again, BCS Champions!"

(Scattered applause through media)

"Thank you, thank you. Well anyway, after the big game the other day, I started talking to some of the seniors, thanking them for sticking with the program and all. The conversations were going well, and then we got thinking about something really special.

"Out of nowhere, Alex—Boone, that is—well, he looked me in the eyes and said, 'Hey Coach, guess what I was just thinking about? We just won won our third consecutive national championship!'

"So I sat him down, put my arm on his shoulder, and said, 'What do you mean, Alex? We made the title game three years now...but, well, we lost the first two. This is the first one we've won.' I thought, you know, he's really happy about the win and all, he just got a little excited.

"But then he looked me in the eyes, and I knew he wasn't kidding. He said to me, 'Coach, come on. This is our first BCS National Championship win, yeah. But think about it, man. Last year, where did we finish after the regular season? We finished number one. Two years ago, where did we finish after the regular season? We finished number one, man! Coach Tress, we just won three National Championships right there!'

"Some of the other guys got pretty excited when he said all this, but I had to calm 'em down. I tried to explain that it didn't work like that, but Alex just kept going. He said, 'Coach, USC claims two national titles—and they've got all the Reggie Bush stuff going on. Les Miles says a loss in overtime should count as a tie, so why should we be punished for losing in the overtime of the regular season? Coach, we looking at three National Titles right there.'

"I know it sounds crazy, ladies and gentlemen, but I thought about it—and you know what? Alex Boone hit the nail on the head. So this is why I've called this press conference. I have a couple of announcements to make.

"First of all, I am pleased to announce that Ohio State, with permission from President Gordon Gee and Athletic Director Gene Smith, has officially bought the phrase 'Three-Peat' in celebration of our three consecutive National Championships. In addition, we have arranged for the Buckeye Hall of Fame Cafe to make two replicate National Championship trophies so we can display all three of our trophies in our Woody Hayes Athletic Center.

"In addition to this exciting news, I am also pleased to announce the purchase of another phrase: 'Team of the Millennium.' With our fourth national title, Ohio State now has accomplished the most during this 21st century, and we feel we are very accurate in saying we are indeed the 'Team of the Millennium.' Again, let me mention how proud we are to now own these phrases, and I look forward to hearing them used as soon as possible—this is a very exciting time for our football team indeed.

"Before I continue, I have a little anecdote—a little story—I'd like to tell. To be honest, it wasn't mine or Gene's or Gordon's idea to purchase 'Team of the Millennium.' It was actually Todd's, as funny as that may seem.

"As a player who spent more than half this current millennium on the football team, it was Todd who came up to me and said, 'Hey Coach—we're the Team of the Millennium, think about that.' So, you know, I thought about it, and he was right.

"So when we told this to the team—let me tell you guys, we've got such a great group of young men on this team, really fine young gentlemen—the response was overwhelmingly positive.

I had Chris—Beanie, that is—come up to me and say, 'Coach, I love what we're doing here, but I just got one more thing in mind. You know as much as me that we're not really the darlings of America right now. But what I was thinking,' —this is what he said to me—'what I was thinking is that no other team has sparked such a universal response from the entire nation quite like we have. So, if it's all good with you and stuff, I was thinking maybe we can just call ourselves 'America's team?' How do you think that would fly?'

"Personally, I thought Beanie's idea...well, I thought it was brilliant. So my final announcement today is that we will no longer go by THE Ohio State University, but rather simply America's Team. Again, I repeat, Gene and Gordon have given us the the okay, the thumbs-up, so this is a very exciting time for all of us.

"I will now take questions. Fire away."

Ohio State/Wisconsin: What We Learned

Ned Dutton — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 07:34:36 -0400

Ohio State played another game under the bright lights of (regional) national television last night, for once a game that lived up to preseason hype. A back and forth, hard-fought battle between two perennial Big Ten powers came down to the wire, as Ohio State's Malcolm Jenkins finally sealed the Buckeye victory with a less than a minute to play in regulation.

Buckeye fans everywhere woke up this morning and had an extra-large glass of Terrelle Pryor kool-aid with their scrambled eggs. After watching TP march the team down the field and score the game-winning touchdown with 66 seconds left in the game, these fans think they've learned a lot about not only Mr. Pryor, but also the entire team as a whole.

Before we get ahead of ourselves, however, let's take a lot at what we did learned last night:

- Terrelle Pryor is a leader.

This one may seem pretty obvious. Some have said they could tell Pryor was a leader after his first two starts, but I believe one couldn't really tell how influential Pryor really was against Troy and Minnesota—it's Troy and Minnesota, the players can get by on their own.

Against Wisconsin, however (who has been the thorn in Jim Tressel's side over the past eight years), and AT Wisconsin no less, Ohio State does not get a win without exceptional leadership from their young quarterback. It's that simple.

We had heard Pryor has an exceptional competitive spirit, and we saw it Saturday night —arguably to a fault. Ohio State stumbled after taking yet another early lead, yet Pryor got his team refocused and back in the game.

Holly Rowe noted during the game that Pryor was much less vocal on the sidelines than Evridge was on the Wisconsin sideline, but when the Ohio State offense got on the field, Pryor kept his head cool. He led by example, his offense trusted him the whole way, and as a result Ohio State got the big win.

- Terrelle Pryor is the quarterback Ohio State needs, but he is still a freshman.

After the USC debacle, Ohio State fans (myself included) called for a Quarterback change, and Jim Tressel immediately granted our wish—Pryor started the following game against Troy, and has only secured his spot since then.

Pryor brings a much different look to Ohio State's offense, a much more explosive offense than Boeckman ever could have supplied—it's nothing against Boeckman, it's just a fact. This new-look Pistol formation is what Ohio State needs—having two extremely potent runners (and a competent passer) in the same backfield creates a huge problem for opposing defenses.

Even if Pryor were to simply hand the ball off to Wells on every single play, the other team would need to think about Pryor, and that kind of defensive uncertainty helps Ohio State in a big way.

Ohio State's offense has struggled at times this year, but with Pryor in the backfield, the rest of the team plays with more confidence, even when Pryor makes mistakes— which has happened, and will continue to happen.

It's easy to get swept away with admiration for Pryor, but his game against Wisconsin was far from perfect. After leading Ohio State down the field for his third consecutive first-series touchdown (which is impressive and should be noted), Pryor killed a productive Buckeye drive when he lobbed a pass down the sideline towards Brandon Saine that was intercepted.

Up to that point, Ohio State was unstoppable, and at the time it was a game-changing play. It gave Wisconsin some confidence (forget the fact that Wisconsin quickly punted the ball back to Ohio State), and it derailed Ohio State's offense for the rest of the half.

Pryor also let his inexperience show repeatedly against Wisconsin. The box score will show you that Pryor had 15 carries for 20 yards, but this is very misleading. Pryor had 57 positive rushing yards, and -37 yards being tackled for loss. Too often Pryor would spend all day in the pocket looking for an open receiver, checking from one covered receiver to the next (as he's been taught), but would then be pressured.

Instead of throwing the ball out of bounds and accepting a 0-yard loss, Pryor would use his mobility and strength to intentionally keep the play alive in hopes that a receiver would get open. Time after time, however, the receivers did not open up, and Pryor would run sideways and backwards before being sacked for a loss.

Pryor is an exceptional athlete, he holds the team together and presents a seemingly endless number of options for the offense, but he is still a freshman. He makes mistakes, and while against Wisconsin he was able to keep his cool and recover from these mistakes, he will continue to make mistakes.

Ohio State fans can be pleased with his performance so far, but he is not Troy Smith or Vince Young (yet)—he is a freshman, still learning how to execute Ohio State's offense at Big Ten speed.

- The absence of the Wisconsin marching band was significant.

Before the game, I silently wondered what effect the band's absence would have on the game. After contemplation, I deemed it relevant, and a decided advantage for the Buckeyes, and I was right.

Camp Randall is not a fun place to play, especially at night, but not because Wisconsin players historically like to sleep in and are more well-rested. It's tough to play at Camp Randall because the atmosphere is historically electric (there's a reason Wisconsin hadn't lost at home in three years). In my opinion, last night's environment was the least-electric and intimidating I've ever witnessed at a Wisconsin home game.

The commentators pointed it out in the first half, but even in the second half the crowd was noticeably quieter than usual. I blame this not on the crowd (Camp Randall Stadium was 1,000 people over capacity), but rather on the absence of the band.

The band is supposed to be there to get the fans back in the game after a bad play or for an important defensive stop. Wisconsin fans really seemed lost without their band, I just don't know how else to say it.

Don't get me wrong, the crowd had their moments of intensity—but they were few and far between, and they were virtually non-existent on the most important drive of the game (when Ohio State took the field with 6:30 minutes left). Ohio State fans expect to hear the Buckeye contingency at away games such as Indiana and Northwestern, but never at Wisconsin—yet there they were, louder and prouder than ever.

One of Wisconsin's major assets is their home-field advantage, yet without the band it simply wasn't up to Badger Nation standards last night.

- Beanie Wells is the best running back in College Football.

Coming into the season, Beanie Wells was the consensus favorite for the Heisman Trophy. After injuring himself in the first game against Youngstown State, Wells missed three games before finally coming back last week against Minnesota. Fans knew Wells played hurt for almost all of the 2007-08 season, so playing hurt for the rest of this season would be nothing new for Wells.

There's no perfect estimate on how healthy Wells is, but we know he is not 100 percent—he is wearing a heavier cleat than normal, one normally worn by Linemen, to give the foot a little more protection. Given this information, it is simply amazing to watch Wells run through, over, and past the Wisconsin defense as he did last night.

Well's performance last night was an exhibition in exactly what makes him the best running back in College Football. On his 33-yard touchdown run, the last five or six yards were gained while stiff-arming a Wisconsin defender into the ground. That run showed his patience and ability to find and hit the hole quickly, as well as his ability to outrun and overpower defenders who try to get between him and the end zone.

Beanie brought out his stiff-arm a couple of times last night, a move that noticeably gained him dozens of extra yards. Most impressive, however, was Well's speed. On Well's first touch of the second half, he sprinted 55 yards down the sideline before being angled closer to the sideline and inadvertently stepping out of bounds. On this play, Beanie ran past the entire Badger secondary.

Over the last 25 or 30 yards of his scamper, Beanie straight-up ran faster than the defensive secondary that was chasing him. Keep in mind that Beanie Wells weighs 237 pounds, and he is running on a foot that is not 100 percent in a cleat that is uncomfortable and bigger than his usual cleat. Knowshon Moreno couldn't do that. Javon Ringer couldn't do that.

- Ohio State is, in fact, still coached by Jim Tressel.

Despite Ohio State's new Pistol formation, Ohio State fans should not worry—Jim Tressel is, in fact, still the Buckeye coach. Here are just a couple of things from last night's game that are quintessential Tresselball:

Ohio State scored first, then did nothing for awhile. Ohio State has this unique tendency to start off hot, then cool down and play down to their opponent's skill level until they are needed to crank it back on.
It is very common (see games against Ohio, Troy), and it is one reason why Ohio State traditionally doesn't blow teams out. When they play teams clearly equal to/better than they are (Florida, LSU, USC), however, this strategy doesn't work.
Ohio State's special teams were exceptional. Tressel is well-known for calling the punt the "most important play in football," and last night was an excellent demonstration of Tresselball. Buckeye punter A.J. Trapasso shanked one punt for only 30 yards, but even with that duck Ohio State's net punting average was nearly 50 yards/punt. That is devastating, if you're Wisconsin. When Ohio State and Wisconsin traded punts in the third and fourth quarters, you'll note that Ohio State's field position moved from their 16 yard line to their 41 yard line. Buckeye kicker Ryan Pretorius was perfect on the night with two field goals and two extra points. Finally, Ohio State's punt and kickoff returns were much improved, and they only allowed Wisconsin 77 total return yards (on five kickoff returns and one punt return).
Ohio State managed the clock beautifully under pressure. Ohio State burned a timeout early in the second half, leaving them with only two timeouts for the final 6:30 of the game. The commentators were speculating (as were, I bet, Buckeye fans everywhere) that Ohio State could actually get the ball back if things didn't go well the first time. Tressel, however, would have none of that. In the well-executed, methodical final drive, Ohio State burned 5:30 off the clock and didn't use a timeout. I'm sure some Buckeye fans were questioning the coaches' decision not to call the timeouts and preserve time, especially after a four-yard loss by Pryor, but it turns out Tressel and Co. knew exactly what they were doing. How is this vintage Tresselball? Ask a Michigan fan, or throw in the tape of the 2005 Michigan game.

Ten Things That Will Happen This Weekend: Week Six

Ned Dutton — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 10:44:07 -0400

I'm writing this a little later than I usually do on Fridays, so I apologize—I am a college student, after all, and while I love writing these weekly predictions I do need to keep my priorities straight.

Anyway, let's get right to it. Last week was miserable. There's no getting around it - I'm in a slump, and Tebow now has a pretty commanding lead. Here's what went down last week:

Wells and Pryor only accounted for 273 all-purpose yards. Bummer. (-1)
Javon Ringer had a great game against Indiana, accumulating 198 yards and vaulting himself into the short list of serious Heisman contenders. (+1)
Notre Dame definitely did not go to their corner. Purdue should be embarassed. I certainly am. (-1)
At halftime, Michigan was down 19-0. I was giddy—as I said last week, my morale significantly improves when Michigan loses. Then the second half happened. (-1)
For the first quarter, it looked as though Penn State and Illinois would accumulate 80 points for sure. Then, a pulse appeared in the Penn State defense. (-1)
Washington, what the heck? You nearly pull that upset against BYU, play Oklahoma, get a bye week, and then LOSE AT HOME to Stanford? I was totally on your bandwagon, and you treated me like that...we're done. (-1)
West Virginia covered the spread handily. (-1)
Duke killed Virginia. Maybe they could beat Ohio State. (+1)
I totally should've gone with the special teams touchdown in the UGA/Bama game instead of the defensive touchdown. (-1)
Corso didn't pick Georgia. Obviously it worked out for him, but I really think the only reason he did it was because he was jealous Kirk picked Georgia first and got to play with UGA. (-1)

"Houston, we have a problem." Let's see here, last week, Tebow was beating me 5-4. After this week's embarrassing 2/10 effort, I lost 6 points. Tebow, on the other hand, had 3 total touchdowns (1 passing, 2 rushing). After five weeks, the scoreboard reads...

Tim Tebow: 8
Ned Dutton: -2

That's right. I am losing by 10 points. If Beanie Wells can announce that he's not actually out of the Heisman race, I guess I can announce that I'm not out of this unofficial competition Tebow has no idea exists. So I'm down, but I'm not out. I'll come back...you'll see.

So, without further ado, Ten Things That Will Happen This Weekend:

1. There will be an upset in the Big 12.

Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, and Missouri all play on the road this week, and Oklahoma and Texas could get caught in the dreaded look-ahead game. I'm not smart enough to tell you which team(s) will get upset, but I think I'm smart enough to tell you that one of them will.

2. Illinois will beat Michigan.

There's no way Michigan can pull off two straight victories, right? They got lucky last week—at least that's what I'm telling myself. Illini by 10.

3. Jarrett Dillard will score a Touchdown.

In case you've missed it, Rice QB Chase Clement and WR Jarrett Dillard have connected for 41 touchdowns, breaking the previous NCAA record for career touchdowns by a QB/WR combo. I say they make it at least 42 this weekend when the Owls visit Tulsa.

4. Rice and Tulsa will combine for at least 80 points.

Last week, I made this exact prediction for the Illinois/Penn State game. Obviously, it turned out to be far from the truth, but this week I am much more confident.

Tulsa comes in averaging 54.8 ppg (most in NCAA), and Rice comes in averaging 41.2 (which includes a 10 point performance at Texas). Think video-game numbers, people.

5. Northwestern will be ranked.

The 'Cats don't play this weekend, which means they can't lose. They currently are sitting pretty at 26 in the Coaches' Poll, so should one of the teams above them stumble (Oklahoma State?), Northwestern might see itself ranked for a week.

6. Terrelle Pryor will show Mark May he can handle the big stage.

Ever since Pryor's recruitment/signing charades, May has been overly critical of the 18 year old, and Pryor called May out on last week.

Going into a boisterous, borderline dangerous environment in Madison at night and emerging with a victory will help quiet May for awhile—especially since Pitt won last night, and May will be too giddy to really notice anything else for awhile.

7. Beanie Wells will not re-enter the Heisman race.

Earlier this week, Wells spoke pretty candidly about his desire to win the Heisman Trophy. While Wells does have a point—the trophy should reward the "best player in College Football," not the "best player on the best team," Wells hasn't proved he is even the best back in the Big Ten right now, let alone best player in the nation.

There is almost nothing Wells can do to put himself in a position to be seriously mentioned in the same sentence as Chase Daniel, Sam Bradford, and Ringer right now. Sorry Beanie.

8. Javon Ringer will rush for at least 175 yards.

Speaking of Ringer, his assault on opposing defenses will continue this week as Michigan State hosts Iowa. For those of you not keeping track at home, take a look at Ringer's last four games:

34 carries, 135 yards, 5 tds
43 carries, 282 yards, 2 tds
39 carries, 201 yards, 2 tds
44 carries, 198 yards, 1 td

Simple math tells me that Ringer is averaging 40 carries and 204 yards over his last four games. That deserves a collective "Wow." This man is a workhorse, and no matter how much you think you can slow him down in the first half, guess what - you're still going to see a good 20-25 plays featuring No. 23. Good luck, Hawkeyes.

9. UCONN/UNC will be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend.

There's no way I can say it will be the single most entertaining game of the weekend, because that's just stupid, but what I'm trying to say is that this should be a heckuva game.

UCONN just lost QB Tyler Lorenzen, but don't count them out - they still have the nation's rushing leader, Donald Brown. Meanwhile, UNC is fighting for ACC pride and a chance to climb their way into the rankings - remember, this Tar Heel team is thisclose to being 4-0, if not for a fourth quarter collapse against Virginia Tech two weeks ago.

Basically, this will be a matchup of two up-and-coming teams eager to take another major step in the right direction. Regardless of who you root for, take note of the players in this game, because you'll be hearing their names more and more as time goes on.

10. Corso will pick Vanderbilt.

He's not going to give you a good reason why he'll pick them, so I i'm not going to give you a good reason why I'm picking him to pick them.

Ten Things That Will Happen This Weekend: Week Five

Ned Dutton — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 07:27:23 -0400

It's Friday, which means another round of weekend predictions by me. Also, it means last night was Thursday night—how about the season premiere of The Office? Oh, right—and USC lost, so I guess it was a pretty big night overall.

Anyway, last week I took a 6-3 lead (my points to Tim Tebow's total TDs) into the weekend, so let's see where I stand now. Here are last week's picks.

Missouri did not triple Buffalo's score. They only doubled it, winning 42-21. (-1)
Auburn did not lose to LSU by two possessions. (-1)
The Big Ten did not go undefeated. (-1)
Texas had put Rice well out of reach before the second half started. I did watch a fair amount of this game, and I must say my prediction may not have been so enormously wrong had Rice converted on one of their 12 (yes, TWELVE) plays inside the Texas 10-yard line down 21-3 in the second quarter. That would've made the game 21-10, given Rice some confidence, and who knows. Oh well...that definitely didn't happen. (-1)
Northwestern sits at No. 34 in the Coaches Poll. Close, but not really. (-1)
Graham Harrell threw for 322 yards. Army (63), Navy (89), and Air Force (138) combined for 290 yards. (+1)
Not only did Georgia not gain first-place votes, they actually lost votes in the coaches' poll (1,393 points to 1,388 points). (-1)
There were TWO special teams touchdowns in the Florida-Tennessee game. (+1)
Terrelle Pryor is no longer "The Future" quarterback of Ohio State. His time as a starter has officially arrived, and what better way to kick it off than with a four-TD performance. (+1)
Corso almost picked LSU, but at the last moment he almost shockingly decided to pick Auburn. And there was much rejoicing...for a while. (+1)

OUCH. Easily my worst week to date, going a pathetic 4/10. Week Three saw me go 5/10, gaining no net points, but this week I actually lost two points, bringing me down to four points. On top of that, Tebow threw two more touchdowns, bringing his total to five.

For those who respond more positively to Bulleted Statistics, this is what the standings look like after Week Four:

Tim Tebow: 5
Ned Dutton: 4

This is embarrassing. I really need to pick it up this week. I didn't feel my picks were that outrageous last week, but apparently I need to mix it up a little differently this week.

So, without further ado, Ten Things That Will Happen This Weekend:

1. Beanie Wells and Terrelle Pryor will combine for 350 all-purpose yards against Minnesota.

Ever since Pryor started to get more playing time, Ohio State fans have dreamed about a Pryor/Wells backfield. After not seeing it in either game against the Trojans (USC and Troy), Buckeye fans will finally get to see them on the field together in the Big Ten opener against the Golden Gophers.

I predict Pryor's Passing Yards + Pryor's Rushing Yards + Well's Rushing Yards = 350+.

2. Javon Ringer will enter the Heisman conversation.

Right now, ESPN is having a good time talking about those Big 12 quarterbacks. For a while, Mark Sanchez was mysteriously in the conversation as well, but he should fade out with the loss this week.

Ringer will put up another big game against Indiana, and with no new statistics from Chase Daniel or Graham Harrell to look at (Missouri and Texas Tech have bye weeks), Heisman-hungry analysts will finally start to acknowledge the fantastic season Ringer is having.

3. Notre Dame will go back to their corner.

Since Charlie Weis has had a chance to implement his recruits into his system, Notre Dame hasn't done well, and as a result the rest of the college football community has happily directed them to the proverbial corner.

They squeaked by San Diego State in their first game this year, and then when they beat Michigan the Domers got excited. Last week, Michigan State gave them a little dose of reality, and a loss to Purdue this week will silence Notre Dame fans (Lou Holtschz excluded) for a while.

4. Michigan will improve to 1-3.

I use the word improve because, with every Michigan loss, my mood improves.

5. Penn State and Illinois will combine for over 80 points.

This will not be your good old-fashioned "three yards and a cloud of dust" Big Ten football game. These teams like to score, and they are good at it. The susceptibility of each team's defense also makes this plausible.

6. Washington will finally win a game.

Arguably the best winless team in the nation, Washington plays Stanford this week, and the three weeks of frustration Washington has dealt with this year will be taken out on the Cardinal.

7. West Virginia will not cover the spread.

As I write this, I see West Virginia is favored by 15 points against intrastate rival Marshall. (Is it sad that as I write the word Marshall I have Chris Berman's voice echoing through my brain? I think so.)

West Virginia is clearly down, both in talent and in spirits, from where they have been the last couple of years. Despite West Virginia's home-field advantage, I think Marshall will hang with/possibly beat West Virginia this week. We'll see.

8. Duke will beat Virginia.

In the least-cared about game of the ACC slate this week, Duke hosts Virginia. Both teams are bad, but the knee-jerk reaction tells me to go with the team who is usually much worse than they are this year, because they'll value the win more. In this game, that team would be Duke.

9. There will be a defensive touchdown in the Alabama/Georgia game.

This kind of tremendously-stupid-'til-it's-right prediction paid off for me last week, so why not keep it going?

SEC teams have a tough enough time scoring touchdowns against each other when they are on offense, so what makes me think they'll find a way to score on defense? Well, in case you missed it, Alabama took two interceptions to the house last week, and Georgia took one back earlier in the season. Hey, it could happen.

10. Corso will pick Georgia.

Last year ESPN First Take had a cat predict winners of the NCAA Tournament, after years of watching Corso predict winners of college football games. I really don't know which brain has a more logical thought process.

JoePa Lets College Football World Know He's Not Dead Yet

Ned Dutton — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 08:30:07 -0400

Remember June? College Football was still a couple of months away, USC/Ohio State was still considered a pretty even matchup, Rich Rodriguez was undefeated at Michigan...it was such an innocent time.

Ohio State was the clearly the talk of the Midwest, but Joe Paterno was close behind. Was it time for him to hang it up, to turn over the program to his son?

Many Big Ten fans thought so. They thought so five years ago, but they let him hang around to pass Bear Bryant.

After JoePa started trading the all-time wins record with Bobby Bowden, it became clear to many that Bowden would simply outlast Paterno. How could they show him, one of the best coaches of all time, the door? This was the way things were supposed to happen...if Monty Python had its way:

College Football World: Bring out yer dead.

Big Ten Fans: Here's one. (Brings out Joe Paterno)

College Football World: That'll be ninepence.

JoePa: I'm not dead.

College Football World: What?

Big Ten Fans: Nothing. There's your ninepence.

JoePa: I'm not dead.

College Football World: 'Ere, he says he's not dead.

Big Ten Fans: Yes he is.

JoePa: I'm not.

College Football World: He isn't.

Big Ten Fans: Well, he will be soon, he's very old.

JoePa: I'm getting better. We’ve been workin' on this HD thing...

Big Ten Fans: No you're not, you'll be stone dead in a moment…and that offense won’t work.

College Football World: Well, I can't take him like that. It's against regulations.

JoePa: I don't want to go.

Big Ten Fans: Oh, don't be such a baby.

College Football World: I can't take him.

JoePa: I feel fine.

Big Ten Fans: Oh, do me a favor.

College Football World: I can't.

Big Ten Fans: Well, can you hang around for a couple of minutes? He won't be long.

College Football World: I promised I'd be at the Bowden's. Florida State went 7-6 last year.

Big Ten Fans: Well, when's your next round?

College Football World: January.

JoePa: I think I'll go for a walk.

Big Ten Fans: You're not fooling anyone, you know. Isn't there anything you could do?

JoePa: I feel happy. I feel happy.

[College Football World glances up and down the street furtively, then silences JoePa with his a whack of his club]

Big Ten Fans: Ah, thank you very much.

College Football World: Not a problem at all. See you in January.

Big Ten Fans: Sounds good. We’ll have a guy named Ferentz.

So...what happened? Well, for starters, JoePa was dead on. That "HD thing," Penn State's Spread HD offense, has worked wonders in Penn State's first four games. Penn State is 4-0, in the Top 15, averaging over 500 yards and 50 points per game.

The critics have changed their tune (though questions still exist about the coaching staff's handling of off-the-field issues), and Paterno is no longer overstaying his welcome...for now.

Things could change in upcoming weeks as the Big Ten season starts, but for now JoePa is sitting pretty on top of Happy Valley.

A bum leg forced him to watch the second half of Penn State's demolition of Temple from the press box, yet another reminder that while Paterno may still have the will to coach, his body may ultimately make him lay down his cards.

But for now, Paterno wants to remind us all that he's not dead yet.

10 Things That Will Happen This Weekend: Week Four

Ned Dutton — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 10:00:55 -0400

Before I begin: For all 100 of you that read my (previously) weekly "Inside the Numbers" post, I apologize for not writing one this week. Following the Crisis at the Coliseum, I was focused more on what went wrong with Ohio State than what went right for the rest of College Football. It will be back next week.

By now, it seems like you guys know the deal: Every Friday, I am predicting 10 things that are going to happen in College Football by the end of the weekend. Every prediction I get correct gets +1, and every incorrect prediction equals -1.

Through two weeks, I had six total points, and officially challenged Tim Tebow for 2008 (His TDs vs. My Points). Conveniently enough, at the time the challenge was issued, I was winning. How am I doing now? Let's take a look at how I did last week:

Beanie Wells was obviously not a factor, but it was because he didn't play at all. (-1)
The only winners of Michigan/Notre Dame are the rest of us. I nailed this one, I gotta say. Michigan lost, so it's easy to pick on them. Charlie Weis hilariously tore his MCL and his ACL, so despite the victory, "the rest of us" have a lot of fresh material. Note: I realize it's not actually hilarious for someone to get this seriously injured. In all seriousness, I hope Coach Weis fully recovers as soon as possible. (+1)
As much as it hurt, I actually did watch the entire OSU/USC game - but I didn't see ANY celebrities. This truly was the most shocking part of the game to me. (-1)
Ohio State lost, and I said they'd fall out of the Top 12. Where'd they land? 13 (or 14, depending on your poll). (+1)
Wisconsin didn't win convincingly, though one could argue they would have if the refs hadn't botched a call early in the third quarter. (-1)
I think it's safe to say BYU kept their BCS chances alive. (+1)
Graham Harrell only threw for 418 yards. (-1)
For awhile, Penn State's Touchdowns and Syracuse's Points were tied at six, but a second-half touchdown by the 'Cuse burst my bubble. (-1)
The SEC went undefeated. (+1)
Corso picked the Trojans. (+1)

Yikes. Not my best week, but I'm still beating Tebow. I went 5/10 this week, netting me zero points. We'll call that a Bye Week, which is perfect because Tebow took the week off as well, so the score remains 6-3. I wouldn't want to run up the score when my opposition isn't even playing, would I?

Moving on to this week. We've got lots of big games on tap, so I need to come up with some big predictions. As promised, here are 10 Things That Will Happen This Weekend:

1. Missouri will triple Buffalo's score. We know Missouri has the offense to big up ridiculous numbers, but how much can it's defense slow down Buffalo?

2. Auburn will lose by 2+ possessions to LSU at home, yet will not fall out of the Top 20. There's a lot going on here, and I don't give myself partial credit. I'm counting on the SEC love affair to keep Auburn in the Top 20 after getting blown out (2+ possessions in the SEC is a blowout) at home to No. 6 LSU.

3. The Big Ten will go undefeated again. No one will care, because the "best" (read: least-worst) game of the week is Notre Dame/Michigan State, but the Big Ten should really improve it's conference's bowl eligibility by sweeping the board this week.

4. Rice will have the ball, down by one possession, at one point in the second half of their game against Texas. In no way am I calling the upset, but I can see Rice hanging with Texas for awhile. Also note I am not predicting Rice will tie or take the lead on said possession, but rather that they will have the opportunity to.

5. Northwestern will crack the Top 30 of the Coaches' Poll. Through three games (of the country's 117th most difficult schedule), Northwestern is 3-0 and sitting pretty in the "Also Receiving Votes" section with 10 votes. Northwestern plays Ohio (the first team to show the world Ohio State was overrated) at home this week, and a Wildcat victory over the Bobcats should escalate these precocious kittens into the Top 30.

6. Graham Harrell will have more passing yards than Navy, Air Force, and Army combined. This is a far-fetched match-up, and one that sounds much more interesting than it will probably be. Navy averages 87, Air Force averages 45, and Army averages 84.5. Together, the Armed Forces average 216.5 passing yards per game. Graham Harrell averages 417 passing yards per game.

7. Georgia will get some of their first-place votes back. You have to feel bad for Georgia. Preseason No. 1, win their first three games, and they drop to No. 3. Oh well. They have their chance to shine this week at Arizona State, and will finally shift the conversation from "USC IS SOOO GOOD" to "But seriously, how awesome is the SEC?" and get some first-place votes back.

8. There will be a special teams' touchdown in the Florida/Tennessee game. Gutsy, right? Obviously the smart money would be on Florida taking one back, but I'll leave the door open for Tennessee.

9. Terrelle Pryor wins the starting job for Ohio State. Sorry guys, I couldn't do a "10 Things" without an Ohio State prediction. It appears TP has been slowly working his way towards inevitably taking the starting job, and a good performance this week would probably secure it.

10. Corso will pick Auburn. On paper (If you look at the rankings), Auburn/LSU should be close. In this type of game, Corso is totally unpredictable. I say he decides to please the home crowd and picks Auburn.

10 Things That Will Happen This Weekend: Week Three

Ned Dutton — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 05:56:30 -0400

It's Friday, which means another installment of my "10 Things That Will Happen This Weekend." After Week One, I had four total points. Not too shabby, but I thought I should crank it up a notch and make bolder predictions in Week Two.

They were gutsier, and I was almost rewarded for them. Let me tell you, no one this side of the Mississippi was more upset when Jake Locker got flagged.

So how did I do last week? Let's take a look...

Ohio State/Ohio was not close to one of the most boring games of the weekend. Bad call. (-1)
Miami (OH)/Michigan was pretty competitive (in a pillow fight kind of way), so I'll give myself credit there. Obviously I have to give myself credit for the South Florida/UCF overtime game, so this was a good call. (+1)
Michigan didn't cover the spread. (+1)
Northwestern beat Duke. (+1)
The ACC improved its record to 15-8. I was close, but no points. (-1)
The Big Ten won all of its games. (+1)
San Diego was beating Notre Dame for quite a long time. (+1)
I don't want to talk about it. (-1)
Corso put on the gator head. (+1)
Technically, ESPN has Tebow #1, but The Worldwide Leader is about the only major news source to a) Be bored enough to release a Heisman list this early and b) Have Tebow on top. I'll admit, I didn't really think through this prediction (Emerge where? According to...?), but I'm still wrong. (-1)

Not nearly as good as Week One, but that's okay. All in all, I got 6/10, giving me two more points on the year and a grand total of six. My goal is to have more points than Tim Tebow has touchdowns by the end of the year. So far, I'm winning.

So, drum roll or not, here are 10 Things That Will Happen This Weekend.

1. Beanie Wells will play, but will ultimately not be a factor.

This is going to be one of those situations where you (Jim Tressel) can't not play him, but it's just going to be something that makes you cringe.

(A healthy) Beanie vs. USC's linebackers is something college football fans have dreamed about for months, but what they'll see Saturday night is an aching Beanie trying to suck it up—and it's not going to work. Whether you're a Buckeyes fan or not, watching Beanie struggle will make you feel bad for him, though maybe not Ohio State.

2. The only real winners in the Michigan/Notre Dame game are the rest of us.

The 60 percent of the nation that doesn't love Michigan or Notre Dame is going to have a field day with this kitten fight.

"Michigan, you couldn't even beat Charlie Weis? The last time that guy saw success was when they had the team meal at Hometown Buffet!"

Or...

"Notre Dame, you couldn't beat Michigan? They don't have a quarterback, they don't have a running back, they don't have a wide receiver...they lost to Appalachian State last year! Where was Jimmy Clausen (!!!!OMG Jimmy Clausen!!!!) when you needed him?"

Etc, etc.

Personally, I'm excited. Whatever team happens to score more points at the end of the game will lose next week, so it's not like we (the rest of the nation) will have to suffer through too much gloating from that team's fans.

3. ABC will show no fewer than six celebrities at the OSU/USC game

We know Denzel Washington and Jamie Foxx are going to be there, as are "150-200" other really cool/rich people. Who will they be? Will Ferrell is a good bet, but I guess we'll just have to tune in to find out!

4. If Ohio State loses, they will drop out of the Top 12. If USC loses, they will drop no lower than seven.

Sorry for all the OSU/USC predictions this week, but in case you haven't heard, the hype is what's going to make this game great. Wait, what? Either way, this prediction is pretty straightforward.

I came pretty close to saying "If Ohio State wins, they won't get 100 percent of the first place votes," but that's getting way too far ahead of myself. I just threw in the second condition to make Buckeye fans happy—I'm not going to lie.

5. Wisconsin will beat Fresno State convincingly.

I know "convincingly" is generally a subjective adverb, but that's how confident I am. I'm not talking four-possession victory here, but rather just a comfortable, pretty stress-free victory.

Yes, they fell behind to Marshall last week, but they scored 51 unanswered points to finish the job. This game may be close for a while, but Wisconsin will eventually pull away.

6. BYU will keep their BCS hopes alive.

As much as I hate to think about it, BYU did outplay Washington, and as such still has dreams of the BCS. This week they play revitalized UCLA at home, but I don't see the upset. BYU knows it got away with one last week and won't let this game get away.

7. Graham Harrell will throw for over 450 yards against Southern Methodist.

Rice put up six passing touchdowns against SMU, and Texas State put up four more last week, so the only real question here is whether Harrell plays long enough to accumulate 450 yards. I think so.

8. Penn State will have more touchdowns than Syracuse has points.

This is quite a gutsy prediction, but imagine if it comes true. Penn State can certainly put up a lot of points (55.2 Points per game), and Syracuse is certainly terrible...but we'll see.

Maybe I should have made a connection between Penn State arrests and Syracuse points...eh, maybe not. Touchdowns is more optimistic.

9. The SEC will go undefeated (in non-conference play).

I know, it's something we all take for granted (the SEC was sent to us by God for getting through Y2K), but the SEC has a pretty good chance of sweeping the non-conference slate this week. Possible slip-up? Rice at Vanderbilt.

10. Lee Corso will pick USC.

What would this list be without another OSU/USC prediction and a Lee Corso mention? It'd be nothing. But anyway, Lee Corso does have a history for being unpredictable/stupid in his choices, so anything is possible—this is definitely not a free point for me.

I say Corso goes out on a limb and picks the 10.5 point favorite, giving Buckeye fans everywhere a little hope (Ohio State has a pretty good record of defying Corso's picks, whatever they may be).

The Irrelevant Ohio State/USC Preview

Ned Dutton — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 06:15:04 -0400

It seems like all the major media outlets have caught on to the fact that there's a big game this weekend, and are all providing borderline excessive previews of this Week Three game (included are a few links for the non-believers/sub-rock citizens).

What am I supposed to do? A position-by-position breakdown? The internet beat me to the punch. An article about the prestige of these two teams? They've got it covered. A Beanie Wells update? Check...check...check...check. I want to write something—I have to write something—but it seems like every single angle of this game has been covered.

But then it hit me...only the seemingly relevant aspects of this game have been covered. There have got to be some random, completely irrelevant tidbits I can expose, just to complete the absurdity that is the coverage of this game. Turns out, there are:

Ohio State has the edge on games played on September 13. Ohio State is 4-0 in games played on September 13, most recently with a 44-38 win over NC State in 2003. USC, on the other hand, is only 3-1 on September 13. In 1997, USC lost 28-21 to Washington State at home.

Ohio State has the edge for games played in September. Jim Tressel is 27-2 at Ohio State in September. Pete Carroll, on the other hand, is only 20-5 in September as coach of USC.

USC has a huge advantage when playing at night on ABC. Tressel is 6-1 when Ohio State plays night games on ABC (it should be noted the previous two National Title games were on FOX). Carroll, on the other hand, is an astonishing 16-1.

USC is 40-3 under Pete Carroll when its starting quarterback's first name starts with an M. Mark Sanchez is 3-1, Matt Leinart was 37-2.

Ohio State is 38-5 under Jim Tressel when its starting quarterback's first name starts with a T. Todd Boeckman is 13-2, Troy Smith was 25-3.

UPDATE: More Beanie Wells news: Uh oh, Buckeye fans.

I'm not sure I really want to spend more time researching the most obscure facts I can think of for a game that won't feature Beanie Wells, so I hope you enjoyed the few facts I did track down.

Inside The Numbers: Week Two Of College Football

Ned Dutton — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 11:25:16 -0400

Week Two of College Football is in the books, so here's a look at some numbers from the week that was...

0: The Big Ten did not have any teams lose in Week Two.

4: Oregon had four RBs who ran for over 50 yards against Utah State.

6: Texas only had six third downs (in the entire game) against UTEP.

9-0: Tim Tebow improved his record to 9-0 when throwing for more than 250 yards.

11: Rudy Carpenter threw for more than 300 yards for the 11th time in his career.

13.2: Yards per attempted pass for Tulsa QB David Johnson this season.

16: Before Thursday, it had been 16 years since Vanderbilt had won a game against a ranked opponent.

20 (140): Georgia has 20 penalties (for 140 yards) through only two games this season.

51: Wisconsin scored 51 unanswered points against Marshall.

68:49: East Carolina has had the ball for 68:49 through two games.

208: Rice WR James Casey had 208 receiving yards against Memphis.

304: Notre Dame has not lost in 304 days.

532.5: Illinois is averaging 532.5 yards per game through two games (532 against Missouri, 533 against Eastern Illinois).

$5,000: The most expensive tickets for the OSU/USC game are selling for $5,000 per ticket on StubHub.com

10 Things That Will Happen This Weekend: Week Two

Ned Dutton — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 07:10:46 -0400

Before I get into this week's 10 things, let's take a look at how I did last week.

Not all the Top 10 won. (-1)
There is still no clear Heisman leader. (+1)
College GameDay was really boring. (+1)
Corso picked Clemson. (+1)
Michigan lost. (+1)
The best game of the weekend was UCLA-Tennessee. (-1)
Terrelle Pryor somehow did live up to people's expectations. (-1)
JoePa tied Bowden. (+1)
Armanti Edward's Heisman candidacy is no more. (+1)
Duke beat James Madison. (+1)

Overall, not too bad. I got 7/10 correct, netting me four total points (I'll be keeping track of these through the year).

Now, without further ado, here are 10 Things That Will Happen This Weekend.

1. ESPN will start and finish the day with the two most boring games of the weekend.

Leading off ESPN's coverage will be Ohio University at Ohio State at noon, followed much later by Miami (Fla) at Florida (Fla). Unfortunately for ESPN, Ohio University is not USC, and we are not playing in the 1990s, so neither game will be interesting for more than 10 minutes.

2. ESPN2 will host two of the most competitive games of the weekend.

With Miami (OH) at Michigan followed by South Florida at UCF, ESPN2 may be the place to be if you like closely fought games. The quality may not be the best, but Miami (OH) and UCF are two teams definitely capable of making things interesting. On a related note...

3. Michigan will not cover the spread.

As of right now, Michigan is favored by 14.5 over Miami (OH). While Michigan convinced me (barely) last week that they could actually put 14 points on the scoreboard, they have a long way to go towards convincing me that they can a) Play good defense, b) Run the ball, c) Win a game of organized football. If they can do all three, I'll be wrong. But I doubt it.

4. Duke will not go back-to-back.

Last year, they stunned the Evanston and Durham communities (no one else noticed) by beating Northwestern. No one really cared, except for playing the "The Big Ten Sucks" card, but now even fewer people will care, because Northwestern will win.

5. The ACC will improve its record to 16-7.

I would explain myself here, but hasn't everyone stopped caring about the ACC?

6. The Big Ten will win all of its games.

This really isn't going out on too thin a branch, because the toughest game of the bunch is Bowling Green-Minnesota...but still, if the Big Ten could actually sweep a week of non-conference games, they could pretend (for a little while) that the rest of the nation isn't still mocking them.

7. San Diego State will be beating Notre Dame at some point during the second, third, or fourth quarter.

I'm not going to say SDSU will win (because I don't think they will), but I think Notre Dame will start slowly enough that it will take a scare from SDSU to get them going.

8. Washington will beat BYU.

It's a home game for Washington, which is a huge plus, and it's a statement game for both teams. Can BYU crash the BCS? Can Ty save his job? Jake Locker will take advantage of USC's bye week and emerge as the main story in the Pac-10 as he leads Washington over BYU this weekend.

9. Lee Corso will pick Florida.

Miss Teen South Carolina could make this call.

10. Tim Tebow will undeservedly emerge as the Heisman front runner.

It's all there: a nationally televised game against a rival he can exploit for huge numbers. I use the word "undeservedly" because, after two games, no one deserves to be in this conversation. Tebow may have a good week, but one must remember that players such as Mark Sanchez and Beanie Wells aren't playing this week, and others such as Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell won't be recognized as much for playing lesser-known teams.

Inside The Numbers: Week One Of College Football

Ned Dutton — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 12:07:31 -0400

Week One of the College Football season is in the books, and after scouring through box scores, here's a light-hearted statistical look at the week that was:

-11: Rushing yards gained by Youngstown State against Ohio State.

0: Third down conversions by Chattanooga against Oklahoma (in 16 attempts).

42%: Armanti Edwards' completion percentage against LSU this year.

73%: Armanti Edwards' completion percentage against Michigan last year.

3: Non-offensive touchdowns scored by Florida against Hawaii (two INT returns, one punt return).

5: USA Today-Coaches Poll teams that lost this weekend (Clemson, Virginia, Tennessee, Illinois, Michigan). Last year, only three teams (Michigan, Tennessee, Florida State) lost. Note Michigan and Tennessee are on both lists.

7: ACC schools with a win after Week One.

8-5: Michigan's record against non-conference opponents since 2004 (bowl games excluded). Michigan's average preseason ranking since 2004 has been 11.

9.2: Yards per pass thrown (caught, intercepted, or dropped) for Graham Harrell against Eastern Washington.

9.477: Kevin Craft's QB rating in the first half of UCLA's game against Tennessee.

13: Penn State receivers who caught a pass in PSU's 66-10 thrashing of Coastal Carolina.

14: Rushing attempts by Clemson against Alabama, netting 0 total rushing yards.

18.3: Yards per rush for Navy RB Shun White against Towson.

35: Points in the second quarter for Arizona against Idaho this week (they won 70-0).

41:13: Time of possession for Alabama against Clemson.

101: Points scored by USC in their past two games—both against BCS Conference teams.

103.2: Kevin Craft's QB rating in the second half of UCLA's game against Tennessee.

297: Days Notre Dame has gone without a loss.

451: Passing yards by Juice Williams against Missouri. His previous career-high was 245 yards against USC in the Rose Bowl.

10 Things That Will Happen This Weekend: Week One

Ned Dutton — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 06:51:05 -0400

Before I begin: Sorry for the delay between articles. After writing my third article for Bleacher Report, I went to Canada for a couple weeks without access to any technology, but now I am back.

Anyway, as everyone knows, college football season has officially started (!!!), with the first games last night. Instead of going through a gauntlet of score predictions (which are, at the end of the day, pretty arbitrary), I will instead to try to write a weekly feature predicting some interesting tidbits that could happen in the upcoming weekend slate of games.

It wouldn't be a preview without some game predictions, so those will sneak in there once in awhile, but they will not be the main focus.

Obviously, this is the first installment of this new feature of mine. SO, without further ado, here are 10 Things That Will Happen This Weekend.

1. Not much. At the top, at least. Unlike last year, which famously kicked off with Appalachian State knocking off Michigan in the Big House, the Top 10 teams will all get through Week One with wins.

At first thought, you may think this is a no-brainer. There's a reason they're voted in the Top 10, but as Appalachian State (and Stanford and Pittsburgh, among several others) proved last year, there is no such thing as a no-brainer in College Football.

Missouri kicks off their National Title run against last year's Rose Bowl participant Illinois, and Clemson hosts Alabama (who is, in case you forgot, from the SEC) in what are clearly the two top games of the bunch. At the end of the day, however, all 10 teams will get through.

2. No one will emerge as the Heisman leader. As ridiculous as it is for prognosticators to prognosticate how individuals will play over the course of a season, before the season even begins, it is even more ridiculous to crown one player as the early leader of the Heisman Trophy after one game.

Chris Wells plays Youngstown State, Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford play Georgia Southern, Tim Tebow plays Hawaii, you get the drift.

First of all, these players will not play the entire game. They just won't need to. Secondly, no expert can accurately evaluate one player's performance in a game versus any other player.

Chase Daniel will have the biggest spotlight, with a nationally televised game against Illinois, but even a 400 yard, 5 TD performance against Illinois would not be enough for most (read: somewhat intelligent) analysts.

3. College Gameday will be really boring. For the past month, ESPN has been airing seemingly pointless episodes of "College Football Live," so they've already pretty much already wrapped up all of the interesting plotlines heading into the season and that's if you didn't get enough already through all the internet blogs and magazine previews.

We all know what's going on, yet The Worldwide Leader in Sports is going to drag us through a show that, in my opinion, can occasionally get a little dull even through the interesting parts of the season.

4. Lee Corso will resist the urge to put on an Elephant Head and will instead pick Clemson. There, now you have no reason to watch Gameday. Just sleep in. I know it's the first week, but seriously. Go tailgate or something.

5. Michigan will lose another home opener. It's just not looking good for Michigan. The defense will be decent, but it's hard to say the offense will have a pulse without a QB, RB, WR, or great linemen. This team would lose to Appalachian State again, and Utah is much better than Appalachian State. Not a great start to the Rich Rodriguez era.

6. The best game of the weekend will be Michigan State at Cal. Both teams are looking to move up in their conference, and this nationally televised game is the perfect opportunity.

For Michigan State, a road win against a legitimate Pac-10 team would be huge not only for their ego, but it also would be a Band-Aid for the Big Ten.

Cal, on the other hand, looks to challenge USC again, and a win against up-and-coming Michigan State would be huge for them as well.

I'm not going to pick a winner, but I will say this game might prove as important to the 2008-09 season as the Illinois-Missouri game was to the 2007-08 campaign. Saturday night, 8:00, ABC. Check it out.

7. Terrelle Pryor will not live up to people's expectations. A lot of the talk around Columbus is about the prized recruit, and Tressel has said Pryor will play, despite his third-string location on the depth chart.

He is expected to play some in the second quarter, and then obviously quite often in the second half, but those expecting him to be Vince Young: Part II, will be disappointed. Yes, it's Youngstown State, but this kid is still a freshman.

He may have a cool run or two, but ultimately the fans will leave wanting much more from TP.

8. Joe Paterno will tie Bobby Bowden's win record. This one's pretty easy. Penn State plays Coastal Carolina at home. Florida State doesn't play. +1, JoePa.

9. Armanti Edwards' Heisman Campaign will disappear. I probably should have included this one earlier in the list, but as you could deduce by my first prediction, LSU will beat Appalachian State.

While I do not think upsetting LSU is necessary for Edwards' campaign, I think performing extremely well (400+ all-purpose yards, great TD/INT ratio) is. Edwards will not perform well enough against LSU's defense to keep Heisman credibility, it's just that simple.

10. Duke will start the season 1-0. They play respectable D 1-AA/FCS opponent James Madison at home, and they will emerge with a win. Whether or not it will be convincing enough to earn Steve Spurrier's vote for the Top 25, we shall see. But they will beat James Madison.

Why the Big Ten Can't Have a Conference Championship Game

Ned Dutton — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 06:07:09 -0400

How big of an advantage is it to finish your season later rather than earlier?

Jim Delaney and the rest of the Big Ten asked this question this past offseason and decided it would be to their advantage to extend their regular season by one week, adding a "bye week" to each team's schedule.

In years past, most Big Ten teams would play a 12-game schedule that ended by the third weekend in November. This year, however, Big Ten teams look to finish their regular season a week later, in compliance with the standards the rest of the BCS Conferences have set.

The last two years have seen Ohio State waiting 50-plus days between the Michigan game and the BCS Title game. Regardless who you are, being expected to play the best game of your life after not playing a game in over 50 days is not an easy task—and it has showed.

Ohio State's underachieving was not the main reason for the Big Ten's decision, but it was the most publicized side effect of the Big Ten's schedule.

While stretching out the season an extra week is a start, some critics argue it is not enough. In addition to long layoffs between the regular season finale and the bowl game, Big Ten teams have been vulnerable to being leapfrogged by teams whose only true advantage was that they played into December.

After the epic Ohio State-Michigan game in 2006, Michigan was ranked No. 2 in the rankings (Coaches, AP, and BCS) released immediately following the game. Having just seen an incredible game between two great teams, the computers and humans agreed Michigan was worthy of the No. 2 spot.

The following week, however, USC leapfrogged Michigan after a convincing win over No. 6 Notre Dame, and there weren't too many complaints. The general consensus was that USC had truly earned their No. 2 spot.

Unfortunately, USC lost the following week to rival UCLA, and their dreams were limited to the Rose Bowl. Michigan was sure to reclaim their No. 2 spot, right?

Thanks to a win in the SEC Championship Game and some strategic campaigning by coach Urban Meyer, Florida slipped ahead of Michigan in the final BCS Rankings.

Michigan was quite possibly the second-best team of the regular season in 2006. What, aside from their late loss to Ohio State, proved most detrimental to their ranking?

The fact that Florida, ranked behind Michigan all year, played two games after Michigan finished their season.

Extending the Big Ten schedule one week does help the problem, but critics are quick to point out that the top teams in the SEC, Big 12, and ACC will still be playing a week more than the top teams in the Big Ten. The absence of a conference championship is ominously haunting the Big Ten, and some wonder if a conference championship game would be prudent.

Before analyzing this idea, let's identify the logistics of the matter: The Big Ten would have to add one more team.

In order to have a Conference Championship—in which two division winners would face each other—the Big Ten would need two divisions. Unfortunately, conferences need 12 teams to have such a system. The Big Ten only has 11 right now.

I'm not going to get into the mess of specifically which team the Big Ten would add (Notre Dame? Rutgers? Missouri? Syracuse? Kentucky? That's a bigger issue I don't really want to delve into here), but for the time being, let's just assume they have added a twelfth team, hypothetically.

Now what? You have to divide the teams.

Before you divide the teams, you have to make sure to keep rivalries intact as much as possible. More than anything, the Big Ten loves to honor historic rivalries (Minnesota and Wisconsin have College Football's oldest rivalry), so this would be an important factor in determining the two divisions.

Here's a look at each team's two most important rivalries (luckily, Adam Rittenberg just did a feature on these rivalries on his Big Ten blog on ESPN.com, so I credit him with the research of this list):

Illinois: Indiana, Northwestern
Indiana: Illinois, Purdue
Iowa: Minnesota, Wisconsin
Michigan: Michigan State, Ohio State
Michigan State: Michigan, Penn State
Minnesota: Iowa, Wisconsin
Northwestern: Illinois, Purdue
Ohio State: Michigan, Penn State
Penn State: Michigan State, Ohio State
Purdue: Indiana, Northwestern
Wisconsin: Iowa, Minnesota

In keeping these rivalries as intact as possible, here is a possible Divisional scenario for the Big Ten.

Division A

Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Purdue
Indiana
(Notre Dame/Missouri/Syracuse/Rutgers/etc.)

Division B

Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
Michigan State
Illinois
Northwestern

Wait a second, that doesn't look right. Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State in the same division? The strength of these divisions is not equivalent.

The rivalries are there, but it is very feasible to imagine a team (Wisconsin probably, perhaps the new Big Ten team or Iowa) dominating Division A, turning it into Wisconsin-and-the-little-five. That would be very bad. So let's bag that method of dividing the teams.

Instead of organizing teams by rivalries, let's group them by geographic location. Here's a quick look at how that could go.

Big Ten West

Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Illinois
Northwestern
Purdue

Big Ten East

Indiana
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
(Notre Dame/Missouri/Syracuse/Rutgers/etc.)

Yeah, that didn't really work either. Trading Illinois for the new team and Indiana for Northwestern doesn't change the fact that "Big Ten East" would be much harder to win year in and year out than "Big Ten West."

By now, you may see the best solution to this problem is to get Penn State out of the same division as Michigan and Ohio State. I agree. Let's see how that would look.

Big Ten West (+ Penn State)

Penn State
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Illinois
Purdue

Big Ten East (- Penn State)

Indiana
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Northwestern
(Notre Dame/Missouri/Syracuse/Rutgers/etc.)

This seems to be the most balanced of the three scenarios so far. There's easily the most parity in this scenario, and the rivalries haven't been completely compromised (except Northwestern).

In no way am I saying this is the best scenario the Big Ten could possibly come up with, but let's just accept this for the time being and move on.

Now that we have two divisions (finally), we can have a Big Ten Championship game, right? Not so fast, my friends. Let's remember who we're dealing with.

Ohio State and Michigan have to be in the same division, there's no debate about that (or is there?)—but how happy would the Big Ten loyalists be seeing Ohio State/Wisconsin or Michigan/Penn State in prime time television, fighting over the Big Ten Championship?

Like it or not, Michigan/Ohio State is THE rivalry of a conference filled with rivalries, and for years it has served as its own Conference Championship game. Part of the magic of the rivalry is the fact that it is always the last game of the season, and adding an extra, "more important" game would devalue the rivalry.

Also, adding a Big Ten Championship game would sacrifice something everyone in the Big Ten has enjoyed seven times over the BCS era: two BCS teams. Each BCS bid represents millions of dollars for the conference. Could an extra game sacrifice this?

The Big Ten Conference has extended its regular season by one week, and while it may be unusual for Ohio State and Michigan fans to wait until after Thanksgiving for The Game, this move has been well received throughout the league. Some, however, wonder if the Big Ten could do more to play even later in the season.

While the idea of a Big Ten Conference Championship game seems pretty appealing, logistically it is not a move the Big Ten should pursue. The conference only has 11 teams, and in order to have a Conference Championship game, they would need to add a team. Who would be the 12th team?

After 12 teams are in place, the even stickier situation of dividing the conference begins—a process that could not be done without controversy. How would you split the conference, managing parity and respecting the longtime rivalries of the conference?

While it would be nice to see teams other than Michigan and Ohio State in the mix for the title, wouldn't adding an additional game devalue the biggest rivalry in the game?

The Conference Championship game would bring money to the Big Ten through sponsorships, but is that money worth the automatic exposure and instant profit a possible extra BCS bid could bring?

Until something drastic changes, there are too many question marks for the Big Ten to seriously consider a Conference Championship game.

NCAA Football: Out of Conference Schedules, The Risk/Reward Game

Ned Dutton — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 09:22:09 -0400

One of the most popular debates among college football fans and pundits is the age-old question, "Which conference is best?" Instead of perpetually arguing this debate, however, we should realize teams are pretty much stuck in their conference.

It's not Oklahoma's fault they have to play Baylor every year, that's just the way the conference schedule worked out. When building a schedule, eight games a year will be in-conference. Instead of evaluating a team's in-conference schedule, let's take a step back and evaluate the out-of-conference decisions teams have made.

Obviously, the non-conference schedule is a risk/reward game. Do you play the tougher teams, risking an early loss? Do you schedule four easy teams to glorified exhibition games, just waiting until the conference season starts?

Texas' win over Ohio State in 2005 spurred their National Title run, and LSU's win over Virginia Tech early last year ultimately proved very important to the computers late in the season. But, on the other hand, that loss was the only roadblock between the Hokies and the BCS Title game.

So what does your favorite team do? There are a few different schools of thought when deciding non-conference foes:

Let's just get to the conference schedule (We'll name this the "Wake Forest" Philosophy)
Let's get to October undefeated, playing one somewhat decent team (We'll name this the "West Virginia" Philosophy)
Let's get to October knowing what kind of football team we have, playing two or three decent teams we should beat (We'll name this the "Michigan" Philosophy)
Let's have a couple breezes and one marquee matchup (We'll name this the "Ohio State" Philosophy)
Let's get lots of money for our school (We'll name this the "Troy" Philosophy)

So, how do some of college football's biggest names fit into these categories? Let's take a look at the non-conference schedules of the Sporting News' Preseason Top 10 (there's no real reason I picked Sporting News, but go with it).

1. Georgia - Georgia Southern, Central Michigan, at Arizona State, Georgia Tech.

Having lived in Ohio my whole life and watched Michigan beat up on Northern/Southern/Eastern/Western Michigan for years, I have deduced as a general rule of thumb that Directional (Insert State here) teams are gimmies.

This leaves Arizona State as the only legitimate team on the slate, but it is quite a legitimate team. Georgia has been knocked for not scheduling tough in the past, but this year—even with the gimmies—there's no real gripe.

2. Ohio State - Youngstown State, Ohio, at USC, Troy.

Jim Tressel loves playing these in-state games, and while it may come back to bite him some time in the future, it won't this year. For how bad Youngstown State, Ohio, and Troy are, however, at USC is the toughest game of any team out of conference.

Ohio State, as I mentioned earlier, usually doesn't schedule more than one decent team a year out of conference, but as seen in the past with Texas and Washington (who, at the time the game was scheduled, was legit) and in the future with Miami, Tennessee, and Cal...they don't back down from the big names.

3. USC - at Virginia, Ohio State, Notre Dame.

Give USC credit for this schedule. Obviously they got a little lucky with Ohio State at home, but all that means is that they'll be going to Columbus next year. With this schedule, USC will definitely know what kind of football team they are headed into their conference schedule (I know they don't play Notre Dame until the second-to-last week of the year, and I know Notre Dame will be an easy victory).

The only possible gripe, if you're an Ohio State fan, is the bye week between the Virginia game and the Ohio State game, but that's petty.

4. Oklahoma - Chattanooga, Cincinnati, at Washington, TCU.

This is a pretty weak schedule, but we shouldn't be too harsh. Like Ohio State last year, Oklahoma is getting hurt by an underachieving Washington team. But, give Oklahoma credit there for trying—that's not going to be a cakewalk, Jake Locker is going to be very good this year.

As for the others, this is a pretty uninspiring schedule. It's very possible people will gripe about how Oklahoma "didn't have to play anybody" at the end of the year.

5. LSU - Appalachian State, Troy, North Texas, Tulane.

When I first typed up the different schools of thought, I originally named the first one the "LSU Philosophy." I decided against it, choosing instead to rip LSU here. Appalachian State, despite what they did to a bad and unprepared Michigan team last year, is a I-AA/FCS team. A good one, but still not a worthy opponent.

LSU does not have a road non-conference game. Troy, North Texas (follow the Directional School rule here), and Tulane's cumulative record last year was 14-22, thanks to Troy's eight-win season. This schedule is comically easy, and any LSU fan should tread extremely carefully before accusing a Big Ten or Pac-10 or Big 12 team of scheduling cupcakes.

6. Missouri - Illinois (neutral), SE Missouri State, Nevada, Buffalo.

This schedule allows Missouri to join Ohio State and USC in the last category. Nevada is not as bad as one might think, but clearly this is a one-and-done schedule. Last year, Illinois nearly beat Missouri (think about how that would've changed people's mind about Illinois), and this year's game should be just as good.

Clearly, Missouri-Illinois is the game of the first week of the season (sorry, Tennessee-UCLA). The only real gripe is the lack of a true road game—the "neutral" game is in St. Louis—but with the marquee game that criticism gets diminished.

7. Clemson - Alabama (neutral), Citadel, South Carolina State, South Carolina.

Two SEC teams on the schedule, so winning both those games could go a long way. As with Missouri, there's no real road game (though, unlike Missouri, the Alabama game is neutral, it's in Atlanta), which isn't too great.

I'm going to pair this schedule with the West Virginia Philosophy, because the South Carolina game is the last game of the season, so getting to October should definitely not be a problem. They won't be entirely untested, but they won't be breaking too hard a sweat—especially since the Alabama game is inside.

8. West Virginia - Villanova, at East Carolina, at Colorado, Auburn.

Historically West Virginia has not really pushed itself when scheduling non-conference opponents (hence the designation of the "West Virginia Philosophy"), but this year it's not too bad, finally looking to break the trend.

Two road games, one game against the Big 12, one game against the SEC...this is a team primed to prove itself. Or fall on its face. With the Big East schedule basically coming down to one game against South Florida (coincidentally enough, the last game of the season), West Virginia's non-conference schedule will be interesting to follow.

9. Florida - Hawaii, Miami (Fl), Citadel, at Florida State.

With Florida, you pretty much always know what you're going to get. You've got the two rivalry games against Miami and Florida State, so usually Florida's always going to have a pretty respectable non-conference slate. Hawaii looked a lot better before June Jones jumped ship, so no gripes about that matchup. If they didn't have a game as easy as Citadel then something would be wrong.

This is a very solid non-conference schedule—games they should all win, and games that will surely let them know what kind of football team they have (the "Michigan Philosophy" minus the embarrassing losses).

10. Illinois - Missouri (neutral), Eastern Illinois, Louisiana-Lafayette, Western Michigan.

With this schedule, Illinois is clearly pushing the limits of the "Ohio State Philosophy." Missouri is a top 10 talent to be sure, but that is all Illinois fans have to worry about. Whoever loses that first game will surely have to face the "they haven't beaten anyone this year" curse with Oklahoma and LSU for the rest of the year.

Before I bow out for the day, I need to include a shout-out for Troy. Troy was 8-4 last year, but they lost their Sun Belt offensive MVP quarterback and are facing a down year this year. So what do they do? They schedule road games at Ohio State, LSU, and Oklahoma State. In fact, they have SEVEN road games this year. That's impressive.

Why Ohio State's Most Important Game is Not USC

Ned Dutton — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 10:09:21 -0400

Here we are, one month from the opening kickoff of the 2008-'09 College Football season. The preseason magazines are being released, camps are about to open, and everybody has their own opinion about the upcoming year. Heisman contenders, conference champs, and hypothetical BCS bids are being tossed around.

But through it all, there seems to be one consensus among all College Football fans: The Game of the Year (capitalized for extra effect) is Ohio State going out west to play USC on September 13.

In what will surely be a battle of two top five (possibly top three or top two, if the voters really get excited) teams, the big bad Buckeyes play longtime Pac-10 foe USC in a game of the two most prolific programs of the past decade.

Though these two teams haven't played each other in 18 years, they do have a nice little rivalry through the years, with USC leading the series 11-9-1. Both teams are loaded for the '08 season, and whoever wins will surely have the inside track to the National Championship.

Any way you look at it (and trust me, there are many different angles from which to digest this matchup), this is College Football's most important game of the year. As for the reigning Pac-10 champs, who have Oregon and Arizona State at home (though in back-to-back weeks), it can be said with confidence that this is the Trojans' most important game of the year.

But, despite all that is at stake (in addition to the aforementioned "inside track" at the BCS Title game, Ohio State is fighting years of pent-up anger and frustration from fans and pundits across the country for scandals, high rankings, and a couple games against teams from the SEC), the USC game is not Ohio State's most important game this season.

Am I out of my mind? If Ohio State loses to USC, even if it's close, their already shrinking reputation will take another crippling blow. If Ohio State beats USC, yes, they will be a virtually undisputed No. 1; the critics will back down, etc. But then what? Win or lose, they still have to play nine more games.

In beating USC (hypothetically), all Ohio State will do is basically save face for a little bit. What they need to do to make sure they don't lose anything they gained from the USC game is to win at Wisconsin and to win at Illinois.

As long as Ohio State doesn't embarrass themselves in L.A., they can still make it to the National Championship game. Ohio State cannot make it to the title game without beating both Illinois and Wisconsin.

Even if you think the Big Ten is weak (and it may be true that there's not a whole bunch of depth this year), you have to acknowledge the legitimacy of Wisconsin and Illinois.

Like Ohio State, Illinois was "a year away" last year, and they made it to the Rose Bowl (forget the actual outcome of the game, making it to the game was Illinois' victory). Juice Williams is a year more mature, Ron Zook has another great recruiting class, the program is clearly headed up.

Two years ago they nearly stunned Ohio State, and of course last year they did pull off the upset. The Illibuck trophy (I'm not kidding) has never had more significance, and going to Champaign and winning what will probably end up being a night game (translation: sucks to be the visiting team) will put Ohio State (even a one-loss Ohio State) in great position to return to the National Championship.

The Illinois game will be meaningless if Ohio State doesn't get past Wisconsin first. For some reason, like an annoying younger brother, Wisconsin always gives Ohio State fits. It's easy to forget that Ohio State was losing to Wisconsin in the third quarter last year, and it may be surprising to discover that last year was Ohio State's first victory over the Badgers since the national title run in 2002.

Camp Randall Stadium is not the place to play at night against a bad Wisconsin team, but this year's Wisconsin is a very good team. Despite worries at quarterback, Wisconsin still has PJ Hill and all-world TE Travis Beckum...the offense will be fine. The defense was good but never really great last year, and with nine upperclassmen starting on defense this year will be improved on last year's 356 ypg/23 ppg effort.

Bret Bielema is 21-5 in his two years at Wisconsin, and he's looking at another top 15 team this year. Wisconsin would love nothing more than to throw the anchor down on Ohio State's BCS Bandwagon, and on October 4 they just might.

The eyes of nation are already focused in on September 13. The Ohio State-USC game will be the most anticipated, most watched, and most discussed game of the year. For the rest of the College Football world, it is the biggest regular season game of the year. But Ohio State can't get distracted by the spectacle...even if they lose, they can make it back to the National Title game.

It's always best to lose early in the year and work your way back up. To lose on the road to the No. 1 team is not really a bad loss, so they shouldn't lose too many style points. Any hopes of salvaging the season (and, for Ohio State, this means making it to the BCS Title game) rest on the two road games Ohio State has against Wisconsin and Illinois.

The USC game will be fun, but these two Big Ten tests will prove more important.