Bleacher Report - Articles by Matt Stevens

Beijing Olympics Part 2: Full Preview of the Men's 200 Meters

Matt Stevens — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 01:35:42 -0400

Before Tyson Gay dramatically went down with injury in the heats of the 200 meters at the US Olympic Trials in early July, the event promised to be an enthralling duel between himself and the Jamaican marvel Usain Bolt at the Beijing Olympics.

With Gay now out of the running, the 200 meters looks to be Bolt’s for the taking. Here’s how I see the event unfolding.

Gold: Usain Bolt (Jamaica)—With the three fastest times this year including a breathtaking run of 19.67 seconds in Athens, Bolt looks far and away the standout competitor in this event. It would be a huge shock if he was to get beaten in the final.

He should be in front or very close to the lead coming into the straight and his long strides will make him impossible to catch.

Silver: Wallace Spearmon (USA)—Spearmon is the fourth fastest runner of all time in this event with a personal best of 19.65 seconds, and probably has the best closing speed of anyone in the race. However, his bend running remains a big problem.

If he is in contact with the leaders coming off the bend, Spearmon should be able to overrun everyone except Bolt and grab the silver medal, but if he is too far behind at the halfway mark, he will find it difficult to run down his compatriots Walter Dix and Shawn Crawford for the remaining podium positions.

Bronze: Walter Dix (USA)—Dix ran brilliantly at the US Trials, winning the 200 meters in 19.86 seconds. He also has a personal best time of 19.69 seconds, making him the seventh fastest man in history over 200 meters.

Dix hasn’t run since the Trials, so his form is an unknown. However, if he races up to his potential in Beijing, expect to see Dix on the podium and challenging for gold. His success will also depend on how he is able to recover after running in the 100 meters earlier in the schedule.

Fourth: Shawn Crawford (USA)—The reigning Olympic champion is back to peak form this year after a few lean seasons by his standards. At the Trials he was beaten by Dix on the line, and showed that he is still a brilliant bend runner in the 200 meters.

The other competitors can’t afford to give Crawford too much of a head start over the first half of the race, as he will be difficult to catch if given the opportunity. He should contend with the other Americans for a medal.

Fifth: Jaysuma Saidy Ndure (Norway)—Ndure put his name into serious contention for this event when he ran a blistering 19.89 seconds to win the 200 meters at the World Athletics Final at the end of last season.

He hasn’t really competed in many 200 meter races this year, so his form is somewhat unknown. However, he has had some great results of the 100 meter distance recently, indicating that Ndure is in peak form coming into Beijing and could challenge for a medal.

Sixth: Richard Thompson (Trinidad and Tobago)—While it isn’t his pet event, Thompson has performed very strongly in the 200 meters throughout this year. He finished a close second behind Dix at the NCAA Championships, and has a best time of 20.18 seconds.

If Thompson recovers well after the 100 meters, he is also capable of challenging for a medal in the 200 at Beijing.

Seventh: Brendan Christian (Antigua and Barbuda)—Christian isn’t a big name in the world of athletics at present, but he could make a name for himself with a strong showing in Beijing.

He has been performing well over 200 meters throughout this season and has a personal best time of 20.12 seconds. He may not challenge for a medal but would be happy to make it into the final.

Eighth: Churandy Martina (Netherlands Antilles)—Martina finished fifth in this event at the 2007 World Championships, so he has the credentials to make a finals berth in Beijing a reality.

He has a best time this year of 20.17, which is unlikely to challenge for a medal. However, Martina should still be in the mix if he can reach peak form in Beijing.

Other Semi-Finalists:

Francis Obikwelu (Portugal)—The veteran runner may be past his prime but is still strong enough to challenge for a place in the final.

Marvin Anderson (Jamaica)—Sixth in the final at last years World Championships. He will only make the final if he is in top form.

Brian Dzingai (Zimbabwe)—Has had great results this year and should come close to reaching the final.

Paul Hession (Ireland)—Had a great result recently, where he finished in third place behind Bolt and Spearmon at a meet in London. Could surprise and make the final.

Christian Malcolm (UK)—The British runner is always thereabouts in the major meets, however may be past his best form.

Marlon Devonish (UK)—The veteran couldn’t compete at this event at the UK Championships, but he should put up a strong performance at the Olympics.

Anastasios Gousis (Greece)—Made the final in this event at the World Championships last year but may find the competition a little harder in Beijing.

Christopher Williams (Jamaica)—His experience should see him perform well; however will have to be in peak form to make the final.

What Does Rafael Nadal Have to Do to Become Number One?

Matt Stevens — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 08:20:59 -0400

We've all heard the news by now; Rafael Nadal can finally become the world's number one tennis player after an unprecedented 158 consecutive weeks at number two. When? Could be as soon as the end of this week. But what has to happen for this to eventuate? Well don't despair, because I've put the hard yards in and crunched the numbers so that I can provide you with the answer to this question.

Due to the Olympics falling this year, the ATP schedule has been somewhat rearranged, meaning that the rankings have become somewhat complicated. To break it down, the ATP Rankings work on a 52-week rolling basis, whereby the points earned by a player in a certain week are added on to their score at the same time that the points they earned in the same week last year are removed.

Because the tournaments are being played in different weeks this year, the points that players earned from the Toronto Masters and Cincinnati Masters tournaments last season are still part of their score as of the end of this week and will be removed in the following two weeks.

This creates a scenario whereby Nadal could secure the number one ranking this week, but not become the world number one until after the Olympics. Instead of boring you with all the calculations, I'll simply provide the scenarios by which Nadal can secure number one at the Cincinnati Masters this week.

Here goes:

Nadal will become number one at the end of this week if:

1. Federer loses before the Semifinals, and Nadal wins the tournament.

Nadal will become number one at the end of next week if:

1. Federer loses before the Final, and Nadal wins the tournament.

2. Federer loses before the Semis, and Nadal makes the Final.

3. Federer loses in the first Round, and Nadal makes the Semis.

Nadal will become number one at the end of two weeks if:

1. Nadal beats Federer in the Final.

2. Federer loses before the Final, and Nadal makes the Final.

3. Federer loses before the Semis, and Nadal makes the Semis.

4. Federer loses in the first round and Nadal makes the third round.

Hopefully that sheds some light on the current state of play. It also means that we could see a scenario whereby Roger and Rafa both reach the final and are playing off for the number one ranking. What a match that would be. We can always hope.

Update:

Federer has lost his third round match, meaning that Nadal will become number 1:

1. This week, if he wins the tournament

2. Next week, if he makes the final this week

3. In two weeks, if he makes the semis this week

Beijing Olympics: Full Preview of the Men's 100-Meter Dash

Matt Stevens — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 07:27:36 -0400

Sick and tired of reading shallow previews of the men’s 100 meters at the Beijing Olympics, where the only three names mentioned are “Bolt, Powell, and Gay”?

Well I’m here to let you know that there will actually be more than three people involved in the race in Beijing, even if the aforementioned trio will most probably end up sweeping the medals.

Before I do that however, I should probably give my prediction on which of the “Big Three” will be crowned the World’s Fastest Man.

1st: Usain Bolt (Jamaica) – Anyone who’s seen Bolt’s world-record performance of 9.72 in New York where he completely blitzed the world champion Tyson Gay would find it hard to go past the young Jamaican for the gold medal.

Despite his recent loss to Asafa Powell in Stockholm, Bolt would have to have another horrendous start if he were to lose at the Olympics.

The only other potential roadblock standing between Bolt and the gold is his coach, who still is yet to decide whether he will actually contest the 100 meters at Beijing or simply focus solely on the 200. For everyone’s sake, let’s hope that Bolt is permitted to run.

2nd: Asafa Powell (Jamaica) – I originally had Tyson Gay in this position. However, a combination of Gay’s injury sustained at the US Olympic Trials and Powell’s seemingly great form over the last week has swayed me to believe that Powell will take the silver medal.

His victory over Bolt in 9.88 seconds, followed by a run of 9.94 seconds to take first in London indicates that Powell is over his recent spat of injuries and is ready to peak at the Olympic Games.

His history of underperforming at major meets (fifth at the 2004 Olympics and third at the 2007 World Championships), makes it difficult for me to reconcile that Powell will be physically or mentally capable of outrunning Bolt in the final.

3rd: Tyson Gay (USA) – It seems that no one will know just how serious the injury that Tyson Gay obtained at the US Olympic Trials is until he steps foot onto the track in Beijing in two weeks time.

If Gay is fully fit and in peak form in the final (like he was when he ran 9.77 and a windy 9.68 at the US Trials), he is clearly capable of beating Powell home, and his experience in winning major titles could even perhaps give Gay the edge over Usain Bolt.

However, Gay’s lack of preparation for the Games, whereby he will not compete at any meet before the heats of the 100 meters, will make it difficult for him to come to the Olympics in peak form, and ultimately could cost him a chance at the gold medal.

Best of the Rest:

Whilst I don’t claim to be psychic, I’ll do my best to predict the remaining five finalists, and the subsequent eight unsuccessful semi-finalists in the 100 meters.

4th: Derrick Atkins (Bahamas) – The silver medalist from last year's World Championships doesn’t seem to be in the same vein of form as he was last year leading up to that meet.

Unlike last year, he has struggled to run any sub-10 times, and hasn’t come close to replicating the 9.91 seconds he ran to win that silver medal. Despite this, Atkins has still consistently gained high places in most of the major meets this year, regularly outperforming the men who will be battling him for a place in the final at the Olympics.

5th: Richard Thompson (Trinidad and Tobago) – The NCAA champion at 100 meters this year comes into the Olympics as one of the best performers of the year, indicated by his run of 9.93 earlier in the season.

After wrapping up his college career, Thompson has come over to Europe to compete against the big boys in two major Olympic lead-up events, and has more than held his own, finishing with quick times and a top-four placing in both races.

6th: Walter Dix (USA) – Dix is really the unknown of the field, having not competed in any professional races following his amazing but wind-assisted run of 9.80 to place second in the final of the 100 at the US Trials.

There are rumours that Dix may have sustained an injury at the Trials, however this has not been confirmed and even if true, he has ample time to rest and recover before the Olympics begin.

Having run multiple sub-10 times, Dix is no one-hit wonder, and should prove in the Olympics that he is a star.

7th: Jaysuma Saidy Ndure (Norway) – Ndure placed himself at the forefront of male sprinting during the latter half of last year, where he produced several top performances in both the 100 and 200 meters.

He has proved that last year was no fluke, continuing to produce impressive performances throughout this season including a run of 10.01. His consistency should help him reach the final after three grueling rounds at the Olympics.

8th: Darrel Brown (Trinidad and Tobago) – Brown has always been an impressive sprinter, winning the World Youth and World Junior Championships before finishing with silver at the senior World Championships in 2003.

His form somewhat lapsed for a few years following this; however he seems to have again recaptured this top form over the last season. He ran an impressive 10.02 earlier this year, and looked on track to run a sub-10 time at his national championships before tripping over halfway through the race.

Due to this fall, Brown’s form is also somewhat of an unknown, but if he runs at his peak, he should be able to make the final.

Eight Other Semi-Finalists:

Olusoji Fasuba (Nigeria) – World 60m Champion not on the top of his form in the 100 this season.

Churandy Martina (Netherlands Antilles) – Fifth in the final of the World Championships last year, but a stronger field at the Olympics may push him out of a spot in the final this year.

Samuel Francis (Qatar) – Young sprinter who ran a 9.99 last season. London Olympics might be his best shot.

Michael Frater (Jamaica) – Seems to be getting into top form, running a 10.00 last week. Big chance of making the final.

Darvis Patton (USA) – May have peaked at the US Trials, but is capable of matching it with most of the runners here.

Marc Burns (Trinidad and Tobago) – Ran a 9.97 last week, indicating that he is also a big chance to at least make the final.

Kim Collins (Saint Kitts and Nevis) – 2003 World Champion is past his prime but always performs at the major meets.

Francis Obikwelu (Portugal) – Olympic silver medallist from 2004 may also be past his best but is still capable of reaching the final.

Personally, I can’t wait to see what unfolds. With the fastest three runners in history shaping up to do battle, and a supporting cast all capable of running under 10 seconds in the final, a world record is highly possible and would provide a great spectacle to an event already enshrined in history.

Bring it on.