Bleacher Report - Articles by Bob Zen

BCS Nightmare May Come True

Bob Zen — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 13:59:29 -0500

I'm looking at the rest of the schedule and see an interesting scenario creeping up on us. There are plenty of scenarios out there, but I'm going with this one because I can see some people going ape when it happens.

We will start with the SEC. Let's say Florida loses to South Carolina. It's possible. Spurrier is getting his team cranked up and they are one of the few teams out there with a defense who could slow Florida down.

Now, an embarrassed Meyer and Co. go to the SEC Championship game and beat Bama by 20+. With that, your No. 1 has just lost to a two-loss Florida by a bunch. Now on to the rest of the world.

Texas Tech and Texas win out, Texas in strong fashion. USC and Penn State win out but USC plays even one average game.

Given USC's schedule, it is possible for them to play down to any of their last three opponents. They don't have to lose, mind you, just play average.

You can't objectively put either USC or Penn State over Texas, who is already ahead of them and playing better than they are against a MUCH stronger SOS.

Just for grins, and to keep them from messing up my plans, Utah goes down to BYU. It may even be more fun to keep them as a BCS fly in the ointment. Your choice.

So, here you are at the end of the season. You've kept Texas near the top of the BCS, and you're stuck with that. You've got a few very hard choices to make to avoid putting Texas Tech and Texas in the BCS game.

You either only drop Bama one place, even though they've played some less-than- stellar games against an unusually easy SEC schedule and just lost to Florida.

You jump USC over Texas, or you hold your nose and jump Penn St. over USC and Texas. If you wanted to keep Utah undefeated, then you can look at that case, too, and say you could jump them over everyone. After all, they did go undefeated.

No matter what happens, every team that gets left out has a valid argument. USC won their conference, as did Penn State. Texas was at the top and played some incredible football this year. Utah was undefeated. Bama only lost one game was ranked at the top of the BCS, but didn't win their championship.

To be honest, I'd much rather see Florida or Bama in the Championship game against the Big 12, but it would be worth it just to see ESPN trying to figure out who they want to pump up after the conference championship weekend. Talk about some high quality TV.

So there it is. What are your thoughts? There are several other scenarios out there that are equally intriguing. This was mine.

The Real Reason This Year's WLOCP Is the Biggest In Years

Bob Zen — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 03:14:40 -0400

It is that time of year again. The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party (WLOCP) looms large, and I daresay has to be the biggest game in this series in years, but not for the reasons that you may think.

Yes, Florida and Georgia are both ranked in the top 10 and this game could determine a shot at the MNC game. Yes, Florida has revenge on its minds after "the Celebration." Both of those pale in comparison to the real reason why this game is so important.

It is amazing the arrogance of the Florida fans, players, and coaches. They've been winning this game for so long recently that they feel it is their birthright to do so. What they don't understand—heck, half of them are too young to remember—is that this series is very streaky, and, when it turns, it turns ugly.

Everyone talks about the streak from 1990 until today, 15-18 in favor of the Gators, but before that it was 15 of 19 in favor of the Dawgs. Before that, there was an unusual five-year span of equal play, during which Georgia was 3-2-1. Before that, it was Florida, 10-12. Before that, Georgia had a long run, 24-5-1.

Only one time in our history has the down team won two in a row and not turned the series the other way. In the middle of Georgia's 24-win streak dominance of Florida, UF put together a streak of two wins and a tie. After that, it didn't win another game for seven years.

That is why this year’s game is, in my humble opinion, one of the biggest in years. After Georgia's win in 2004, the Bulldogs could have turned it then, but DJ Shockley went down and they had to play with Joe Tereshinski III. This year, they're relatively healthy and evenly matched with the Gators. We're either going to see the series turn yet again in the favor of the Dawgs, or see the Gators try to bring it back to their favor.

While Florida is playing the celebration over and over and over again in the locker room, I hope coach Mark Richt is showing the team these stats: A win Saturday puts Georgia back in the driver’s seat, where it belongs.

Who Will Make It to the BCS Championship Game?

Bob Zen — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 06:22:38 -0400

As we get to the final stretch of the season, it is time to look at each of the top teams and talk about what needs to happen for them to make it to the BCSCG. I'll cover first the undefeated teams, then the stickier one-loss teams.

Alabama

What they need to do: Win. That's about all they need to do. Obviously close games against lower teams could hurt them, but if they make it to and through the SECC with no losses, book their tickets to Miami.

Chance of making it to the game: VERY HIGH

Penn State

What they need to do: Win big. With their schedule, they need some style points to jump Bama.

What they need others to do: Obviously it will help them if either Bama or Texas loses. In that case, all they have to do is win out.

Chance of making it to the game: HIGH

Texas

What they need to do: Just win. No need for style points. It is theirs to lose.

Chance of them making it to the game: VERY HIGH

Texas Tech

What they need to do: Beat Texas. That's going to be a difficult task, but if they do and they win the rest of their games, they too can book their tickets to Miami.

Chance of them making it to the game: MED

Boise State/Utah

What they need to do: Win out and win big. To make it to the BCSCG, they will need to win and win big.

What they need others to do: LOSE. All of the above teams will need to go down for either of them to make it to the big game.

Chance of them making it to the game: LOW.

Now for the one-loss teams. With so many no-loss teams ahead of them, it will take a lot of movement at the top before they can make it to the big game.

Florida/Georgia

What they need to do: Continue to embarrass their SEC opponents. The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party looms large next week. Both Georgia and Florida need to win this game and do so with some authority in order to make their case for going to the championship game. After that, the winner needs to win out and win the SECC, and they should be the highest rated one-loss team.

What they need others to do: They need two of the top three to lose one game, preferably to a lower-ranked team. If UT drops one and still wins the Big 12 championship game, they have a very strong case to go ahead of the SECC winner, sans an undefeated Bama. The best case for either of them is that Penn State loses and they beat an undefeated Bama in the SECC.

Chance of them making it to the game: MED.

Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.

What they need to do: Win out and win big. They probably have the least chance to make the big game just by virtue of the fact that they have both lost to Texas.

What they need others to do: Texas needs to lose twice and Texas Tech needs to lose twice. After that, which is a long shot at best, they need the same thing that Florida, Georgia, and USC need: for all of the one-loss teams to go down. It will also help them if the SECC team has two losses.

Chance of them making it to the game: LOW.

USC

What they need to do: Pile on the points. Their SOS is pitiful. They have one quality win against a two-loss Ohio State and did so with OSU missing their best player.

What they need others to do: Like Florida and Georgia, they need those above them to lose. If Penn State or Texas win out, it would be helpful for the SECC to have two losses.

Chance of them making it to the game: MED.

I don't know what will happen, but it looks like we've got another wild end of the season coming. Let me know what you think. Based on how these teams have played to date and what they have left, who do you see in the BCSCG?

Bob