Bleacher Report - Articles by Andrew Tirrell

Patriots Pulse: Week Nine

Andrew Tirrell — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 07:20:46 -0400

Patriots Pulse is a weekly review of the New England Patriots. Last week we covered the match-up between the Patriots and the Rams. This week we'll consider the results of last week's game, preview this week's match-up against the Indianapolis Colts, and update New England's injury status.

Looking Back

The numbers aren't as pretty, but New England's 23-16 Week Eight victory against the Rams has to be considered another step forward for quarterback Matt Cassel. Cassel threw for 267 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, but those numbers are deceiving.

Neither of Cassel's picks were his fault—one came on a ball tipped high into the air by receiver Randy Moss, the other when Cassel's target, Wes Welker, fell down while running his route. Moreover, at one point Cassel placed a pass perfectly into Randy Moss' hands in the end zone, only to see his star receiver drop the ball. On a luckier day Cassel might have thrown for 300 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Perhaps most importantly, Cassel looked calmer under pressure, avoiding sacks by scrambling (he rushed for 22 yards) and throwing the ball away. The Rams only got to Cassel three times during the game, an improvement for New England's offensive line, which allowed six sacks against Denver in Week Seven of the season.

The running game may have helped keep the Rams defense off-balance. With Laurence Maroney out for the season, and Sammy Morris and Lamont Jordan out for the game, rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis was expected to take up the mantle as the Patriots featured back.

While BGE did score an early touchdown, New England played much of what was a close game in passing sets, shifting most of rushing touches to 10th year player Kevin Faulk (Faulk is the Patriots' preferred running back in passing downs).

Faulk responded with 107 total yards, 60 coming on rushing plays, and made a key scoring reception late in the game. His presence in the backfield during passing plays kept the Rams guessing, and the savvy veteran was a surprisingly effective pass blocker given his diminutive size (5' 8").

On the defensive side, New England rose to the occasion as the Rams approached the end zone, holding St. Louis to field goals on several drives that started out in promising fashion. Adalius Thomas sacked Rams quarterback Marc Bulger twice, and Deltha O'Neal returned a crucial interception for 44 yards in the final minutes of the game.

Looking Forward

New England will travel to the RCA Dome in Indianapolis to face the Colts on Sunday night. This game was slotted for Sunday Night Football at a time when it was assumed that Patriots versus Colts, and specifically, Brady versus Manning, would be a premier match-up.

While both teams are still in the playoff picture, Tom Brady has been lost for the season with a knee injury, and Peyton Manning has not been his usual dominating self this season, after undergoing surgery for a staph infection last July.

Still, this game should prove quite competitive, as the slight regression of each team leaves them fairly evenly matched. Both teams have scored around 21 points and gained nearly 320 yards per game this season. The Patriots have featured a more balanced attack, while the Colts have compiled most of their yardage (242 of their 315 yards-per-game) through the air.

Indianapolis' penchant for the pass can be partially attributed to their loss of starting running back Joseph Addai due to a hamstring injury for nearly all of three games so far this season. Still, Addai did not top 17 rushing attempts or 78 yards in any game this year, as the Colts have found themselves playing from behind even in their victories this season.

An important challenge for New England this week will be to hold Manning in check despite a secondary that has been prone to allowing big plays (like the 69-yard touchdown strike from Bulger to Donnie Avery last week) and has lost key elements, such as Rodney Harrison, to injury this season.

If the defense can hold the Colts to 19 points on Sunday (its season average for points allowed thus far), the offense, improving as Cassel's game matures, stand an excellent chance of winning the game against a mediocre Colts defense that has given up more than 23 points per game this year, and lost another starter when cornerback Marlin Jackson tore his ACL in practice this week.

Look for Faulk to once again play an integral role, as Indianapolis has been especially soft against the run, allowing opposing teams almost 150 rushing yards per game.

For the Colts the important story is Addai's return, which is still questionable. A strong initial showing by Addai, who is a far more dynamic runner than back-up Dominic Rhodes (also questionable for the game with an ankle ailment), could set up Manning for deep strikes to the ever dangerous Reggie Wayne against the shaky Patriots pass defense.

Even if Addai does suit up, however, his effectiveness may still be limited, as hamstring injuries often linger, sapping speed and agility. At the very least, the Colts will have an ally in their home field, whose crazed fans and deafening acoustics will trouble the inexperienced New England play-caller.

This game will be the first true challenge for the ascending Patriots and a bounce-back opportunity for the reeling Colts.

Infirmary

The Patriots are again stretched thin at the running back position. Morris remains doubtful with a knee injury, and won't return until Week 10 at the earliest. Jordan has been upgraded to questionable, but would likely be limited by his ailing calf even if he is cleared to play.

Update (11-1-08, 7:28 p.m.): Jordan has been ruled out of this week's game. Faulk and Green-Ellis will split the rushing load, with Faulk getting the call on passing downs. Given how often the Patriots line up in passing formations, I would expect Faulk to lead the team in rushing again this week.

Tackle Nick Kaczur is still questionable this week, with an ankle injury, but receiver Randy Moss has been removed from the injury report after being listed earlier this week.

On the defensive side, the Patriots will be without cornerback Lewis Sanders (hamstring), who did not participate in practice this week. Linebacker Eric Alexander (hamstring) also may not play. Cornerback and kick returner Ellis Hobbs is questionable with a shoulder injury, but has vowed that he will play, and has participated in parts of practice this week.

With safety Harrison out for the season, and Sanders out for this game, Hobbs' ability to play (and play effectively) is especially important for the New England secondary's chances against Manning.

The Colts also come into the game at far less than 100 percent health. In addition to Addai, Rhodes, and Wayne, starting defenders linebacker Freddy Keiaho (knee), cornerback Kelvin Hayden (knee/hamstring), and safety Bob Sanders (knee) are all questionable. Hayden's back-up Dante Hughes (ankle) is also questionable. Cornerback Marlin Jackson tore his ACL in practice this week and is out for the season.

On the offense, Wayne and Rhodes practiced on Friday and are expected to play. Addai, also practiced, but is looking like a game-time decision.

For the defense, Sanders and Hayden practiced on Friday and are expected to play. Hughes and Keiaho did not practice, and are game-time decisions at best.

Because of the loss of Jackson, and the questionable status of Hughes and Keiaho, the Colts defense is suspect, even with the likely return of Sanders and Hayden this week.

Drop me a line at andrew.tirrell@gmail.com.

Patriots Pulse: Week Eight

Andrew Tirrell — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 08:52:14 -0400

Patriots Pulse is a weekly review of the New England Patriots. This week we'll consider last week's game against the Denver Broncos, preview this week's match-up against the St. Louis Rams, and update the status of the growing number of injured Pats.

Looking Back

Last week I wrote about the need for Matt Cassel to have a big game against Denver's consistently overmatched defense. Cassel came through for the Patriots, and then some.

Although he only passed for 185 yards (teams had averaged 255 yards per game against the Broncos up to that point), that low total was mostly due to the fact that the Patriots were in command for the entire game, and thus handed the ball to their running backs often and with great effect.

Sammy Morris, filling in for Laurence Maroney, who has been placed on the Injured Reserve list with a shoulder injury, rushed for 138 yards and a touchdown, but in turn went down with a knee injury during the game. Rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis (is there any way this guy doesn't get nicknamed BGE?) stepped up, running for a robust 65 yards and a score in just 13 attempts.

Cassel completed 75 percent of his passes, and tossed three touchdown strikes, two of them to the previously all-too-quiet Randy Moss, all while allowing no interceptions. He seemed poised and in control of the passing game, except on the six occasions when he was sacked.

Cassel still needs to develop a better sense of the pass rush, and must learn to throw the ball away when a sack is imminent. Perhaps he was learning these skills during the game (he was only sacked once), and seemed to get rid of the ball when necessary, during the second half.

The other key to the Patriot victory was the defense. As poor as Denver's defense had been all season, its offense had been fairly potent. New England's defense, however, was more than up to the task, holding the Broncos to seven points, and causing five turnovers in the process.

Of course, the task was made easier by the fact that Denver's quarterback Jay Cutler injured his thumb on the first play of the game, and never looked the same afterwards.

Still, New England's young defensive stars showcased their abilities. Linebacker Jered Mayo had eight tackles and recovered a fumble, and Safety Brandon Meriweather had his team-high third pick of the season. The only defensive negative that came out of the game was the loss of Rodney Harrison for the season due to an ugly-looking injury.

Looking Forward

New England faces the St. Louis Rams at home on Sunday. The good news for the Patriots is that the Rams defense ranks 30th in the league in points allowed per game, surrendering 30 points per contest on average. It also ranks 29th in the league in yards allowed, yielding nearly 400 yards per game.

On the offensive side the Rams are equally inept. They have averaged a mere 16 points per game, ranking 29th in the NFL, and have gained only 252 yards per game, making them the second most futile team in the league on that account.

The bad news for New England is that after an 0-4 start, the Rams are coming off of two straight wins, and put up 34 points against one-time Super Bowl contender Dallas last weekend. In that game Steven Jackson, who is a gametime decision this week, burned the Dallas defense for 160 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries.

Dallas scored only 14 points, but was without its starting quarterback, Tony Romo, who was held out of play due to a finger injury. His replacement, Brad Johnson, completed only half of his pass attempts, and threw three interceptions in the game.

One of the keys to this week's game for New England is the continuing development of rapport between Matt Cassel and his receivers. If Cassel's passing game can threaten St. Louis' defense it will give the New England running game a chance to keep the Rams guessing. Of course, for this strategy to be effective, Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk must make good on whatever rushing opportunities present themselves.

For St. Louis the biggest variable is Jackson. If he is unable to play or is limited in effectiveness, this offense could quickly return to it's low-scoring form. Running back Antonio Pittman, who is probable with a calf injury, would likely start if Jackson is ruled out of the game.

Update: NFL.com is reporting that Jackson is inactive for today's game. Antonio Pittman should start the game. I believe that Jackson's absence will force the Rams into relying on Bulger to drive the offense. All in all, this turn of events makes the Patriots into real favorites to win the game in my book.

Even when putting up 34 points against the Cowboys, St. Louis' passing game was not overpowering. Quarterback Marc Bulger passed for only 173 yards and a touchdown, and was sacked five times in the game.

This game should provide a firm test for an injury-plagued Patriots team that nevertheless seemed to be coming together as a unit during last week's contest.

Infirmary

The Patriots are very thin right now at the running back position, which has seen Maroney, Morris, and Lamont Jordan all end up on the shelf in the last few weeks. As noted above, Maroney won't return until next season. Morris is doubtful for this week with a knee injury (the tight-lipped Patriots coaching staff won't elaborate on the nature of the injury), and likely won't return until Week 10. Jordan is also doubtful this week after aggravating his calf injury. It is unclear when he might take the field again.

This week the running game will likely consist of a two-headed monster of Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk, with Faulk getting most of the passing down work.

Tackle Nick Kaczur is questionable this week. The Patriots offensive line, which allowed six sacks last week, can hardly stand to lose him.

On the defensive side, the Patriots lost Rodney Harrison for the season when he was carted off of the field with a leg injury during the win against Denver. Harrison's career is thought to be in jeopardy due to the injury.

Also out for the Patriots' defense are linebacker Eric Alexander and cornerback Lewis Sanders, who had four tackles and forced a fumble in last week's game.

Key injuries for the Rams, in addition to Jackson and Pittman, are cornerback Tye Hill (questionable) and offensive lineman Orlando Pace (probable).

Drop me a line at andrew.tirrell@gmail.com.

Patriots-Broncos: New-Look Patriots Overwhelm Hobbled Broncos

Andrew Tirrell — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 17:24:51 -0400

The New England Patriots left Gillette Stadium with a surprising 41-7 victory over the Denver Broncos in their Monday Night Football contest.

The Patriots' success was due in large part to excellent play by the defensive unit, which was exploited last week in its matchup with the San Diego Chargers' potent offense.

The New England defense forced five turnovers, as the Broncos' already banged-up offense tried to recover from first-half injuries to Jay Cutler and Michael Pittman (Cutler and Pittman both returned to the game). Denver's replacements for those two offensive leaders, Patrick Ramsey and Andre Hall, were responsible for three of Denver's five turnovers.

Denver added to its demise by several costly unnecessary-roughness penalties committed by its defense, one coming near the Patriot's own end zone during a failed 3rd-and-15 play by New England.

New England's Sammy Morris, filling in for starter Laurence Maroney who was declared out for the season earlier today, racked up an incredible 138 rushing yards and one touchdown against Denver's league-worst defense in the first half. But Morris too went down with a leg injury during the game, and most second half rushes went to rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis out of Ole Miss, who ran for 65 yards and a touchdown of his own.

Matt Cassel passed for 185 yards, hooking up with Randy Moss for two touchdowns and tossing a scoring pass to Wes Welker as well. Cassel was an efficient 18 for 24 passing and avoided allowing any turnovers. Denver's secondary was especially vulnerable after losing star defensive back Champ Bailey to a groin injury in the first half of the game.

The lone concern for New England was the play of the offensive line, which allowed six sacks during the game. While the line was porous at times, Cassel's tendency to hold on to the ball for too long when under pressure made matters worse. Cassel seemed more comfortable throwing the ball away when necessary during the second half, and the Broncos were held to one sack during the third and fourth quarters.

New England improved to 4-2 with the victory and sits a game behind the Buffalo Bills in the AFC east. Denver still leads the AFC West with a 4-3 record, despite the loss.

Patriots-Broncos Halftime Report: Cassel & Company in the Lead

Andrew Tirrell — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 15:29:23 -0400

As the first half of play came to a close at Gillette Stadium, the New England Patriots held a surprising 20-0 lead over the Denver Broncos.

The Patriots' advantage was due in large part to excellent play by the defensive unit, which was beleaguered last week in its matchup with the San Diego Chargers' potent offense.

The New England defense forced four turnovers in the first half, as the Broncos' already banged-up offense tried to recover from first-half injuries to Jay Cutler and Michael Pittman. Denver's replacements for those two offensive leaders, Patrick Ramsey and Andre Hall, were responsible for three of Denver's four turnovers.

Denver added to its demise by several costly unnecessary-roughness penalties committed by its defense, one coming near the Patriot's own end zone during a failed 3rd-and-15 play by New England.

New England's Sammy Morris, filling in for starter Laurence Maroney, who was declared out for the season earlier today, racked up an incredible 138 rushing yards against Denver's league-worst defense in the first half. Matt Cassel passed for 91 yards, hooking up with Randy Moss for a touchdown as the second quarter drew to a close.

The lone concern for New England in the game has been the play of the offensive line, which has allowed five sacks already this game. While the line has been porous, Cassel was particularly susceptible to the sack because of his tendency to hold on to the ball for too long when under pressure.

Thanks For The Memories, Red Sox

Andrew Tirrell — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 10:06:58 -0400

When Jed Lowrie grounded out to end Game Seven of the American League Championship Series late last night, I found myself to be in remarkably good spirits. I actually managed a smile as I watched the Rays celebrate in a large pile on Tropicana Field, despite the fact that it would be Tampa Bay, and not my guys, who would be moving on to face the Phillies in the Fall Classic.

Maybe I am still too buoyed by the Red Sox's victory in 2007 to be upset about the way this year ended. After all, wouldn't it be a tad ridiculous to complain not even a year after winning our last title?

Maybe it's that the Rays are just the kind of team I would want to see succeed (that is, after the Red Sox, of course). Who wouldn't want the World Series go to a small-budget enterprise built by talent, effective management on the field and in the front office, and interesting risk-taking (the signing of Boston native Carlos Pena and the trade of top prospect Delmon Young for Game Seven ace Matt Garza come to mind).

Or maybe it's just that the cathartic effect of the 2004 championship has allowed me the perspective to enjoy baseball for what it is, a game, and let things go when they don't turn out exactly as I would like.

Whatever the reason, instead of mourning the end of Boston's playoff run, last night I found myself simply thinking back on all of the moments I enjoyed during the season. In essence, I was saying thank you, and goodbye, to the 2008 Red Sox.

I thought back to getting up so very early (5:30 AM, if memory serves) to watch the opening game between the Sox and the Athletics played in Japan. I was rewarded by seeing Brandon Moss' game-tying blast in the ninth inning, and Manny's game-winning double in the 10th (interestingly, neither of those two first-game heroes are with the Sox now).

I remembered relishing the home opener against Detroit, which featured the distribution of World Series rings to the 2007 championship team, and an emotional first pitch by Bill Buckner. Six innings of shutout pitching from Daisuke Matsuzaka in that game were a harbinger of his great 2008 performance.

I recalled listening to a Boston game on the radio (during the ride home after seeing the Paw Sox play) in which I heard Jason Bay's 12th-inning triple clang off of the Green Monster in his first game in a Red Sox uniform. That two-out hit led to a victory when Jed Lowrie drove Bay home with a single.

Finally, I reflected on two great playoff series, punctuated by a historic come-from-behind victory in Game Five of the ALCS that invoked all of the best feelings from 2004 and 2007.

Mostly, I thought back to many joyful moments I spent watching games and talking about baseball with the people who I am lucky to spend my life with. I can only hope that I have much more of the same in the future.

In the end, the Rays were just a bit better than the Red Sox. We saw that in the regular season, and we saw it again this past week. So I wish Tampa Bay good luck (especially New England boys Pena and Rocco Baldelli), and I look forward to the promise of another great season in 2009.

Thanks for a memorable 2008, Red Sox.

See you next spring!

P.S. I'd love to hear about any of your Red Sox memories from this season in the comments section. It would be interesting to see different perspectives on the best moments of 2008.

Matt Cassel and the Defense Need to Step Up for the New England Patriots

Andrew Tirrell — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 10:36:06 -0400

If Matt Cassel is capable of putting up big offensive numbers, now is the time to show it. Patriots fans have to be a little concerned after Cassel's pathetic performance last week against the San Diego Chargers, one of the worst pass defenses in the league.

Cassel threw for 203 yards while hoisting up more passes (38) than he has in any other game this season. He had no touchdowns, one interception, one fumble, and finished with an abysmal 61.2 passer rating.

This week, instead of just "managing" the offense enough to eke out a win, Cassel needs to show that he has the capability to drive the offense to victory. Anything less and he'll risk losing whatever confidence New England fans have in his untested arm.

Lucky for him, he gets a second bite at the bad defense apple when the Patriots face the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. The Broncos have given up more yards through the air than any time in the league, with 255.5 per game—even more than the lowly Chargers.

Cassel has an excellent offensive line, gifted receivers, and a playbook designed by an ingenious coaching staff. If he struggles again this week, there will be nowhere to lay the blame but at his feet.

In fairness, Cassel isn't the only one to blame for the Patriots' stumbles this year. Everyone will remember 2007 as the year that the Patriots put up record-breaking offensive numbers. Lost in all of those Brady-to-Moss touchdown highlight reels is the phenomenal defensive play of the 2007 Patriots.

Those Patriots were fourth in the league in both points allowed per game (17.1) and yards allowed per game (288.2), and terrorized opposing quarterbacks for 47 sacks, good enough for a second-place finish in the league in that category.

This season has seen a dramatic fall from those heights for New England's veteran defense. Currently, the team ranks 17th in the league in points allowed (21.8) and 15th in the league in yards allowed per game (320.8). More disturbingly, New England has only sacked opposing quarterbacks seven times in its first five games, ranking 29th in the league in that respect.

For the defensive unit to be successful, veterans like Ty Warren, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, and Rodney Harrison have to be leaders, allowing young impact players like Brandon Meriweather and Jerod Mayo to comfortably step into supporting roles.

There is certainly enough talent in Foxboro for the Patriots to return to the NFL's defensive elite; it's just a matter of shedding the malaise that has dogged the entire team since Tom Brady was lost for the season and remembering how to win when dominance isn't a given.

We shouldn't underestimate the ripple effect the team suffered from losing its leader and best player. Tom Brady's demise is a big part not only in the failure of New England's passing game (which is averaging an anemic 186.2 yards per game), but also of its rushing attack, which features a rag-tag committee that combines for a lackluster 111.6 yards every week.

It's just impossible to run when the opponent's defense has no fear of your passing attack, and it's impossible to pass when your running game is impotent.

On the defensive side, there's no doubt it was easier to play defense last year when the opposing offense was forced into a one-dimensional playbook, desperately heaving up passes in an attempt to come from behind after being obliterated early on by the lethal combination of Brady, Moss, and Wes Welker.

This year's defense must confront a balanced attack from its opponents and has to deal with the pressure of playing in hotly-contested games (that is, of course, when the Pats aren't being blown out).

Clearly, the loss of Tom Terrific has had a devastating effect on both sides of the ball for New England.

At some point, though, it doesn't matter why things are going badly. All that matters now is whether New England, and, more importantly, specific Patriots players, can find a way to overcome the adversity of losing the one guy all of them depended on (even if they didn't realize at the time just how desperately they did rely on him).

Cassel has to show up Monday night, ready to put some big numbers on the board against a soft secondary. The Patriots' defense needs to make sure that those numbers are good enough to get a win. It’s that simple.

Game by game. Win by win. Now's the time for a new style of New England football.

Tampa Bay Rays or Boston Red Sox: Which Has the Better Lineup?

Andrew Tirrell — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 11:42:02 -0400

We all knew it was coming.

Anyone who was paying attention knew that the Rays would some day be a force to be reckoned with. You can't stockpile first-round draft picks—like Roseanne Barr collecting Twinkies before a Hostess factory closure—without eventually having a very talented team.

No, this isn't a fluke. It was very predictable. Yet, if you asked just about anyone before the season whom they'd pick in an October showdown of the Red Sox and the Rays, I think you'd get an incredulous look and a quick answer: the Red Sox.

Things aren't so clear these days. The Rays won 10-of-18 games against the Sox this season and took two out of three games in Fenway last month. Boston managed to win only one game at Tropicana Field all season.

The home-field advantage of both teams suggests that this series is unlikely to be sweep, especially given how evenly matched the two clubs are.

So how will it all end up? Let's take a position-by-position look at the lineup of the two ALCS contenders.

CATCHER

Boston: Jason Varitek

Tampa Bay: Dioner Navarro

On paper, this looks like a no-brainer. Navarro hit .295 in the regular season but was not nearly so potent in his 18 games versus the Red Sox, when he batted .190. Defensively, he was also stellar, leading the league by throwing out basestealers 38 percent of the time.

The only real cause for concern for Rays fans is that his second-half numbers (.275/.333/.385) have shown a bit of late season decline.

As I’ve chronicled before, Varitek’s offensive production has been atrocious this year, and his September performance (.183/.286/.300) did nothing to quiet the fears of Red Sox fans, after a very hopeful August (.264/.376/.431). Nor has he been successful at managing opponents’ baserunners, catching base-stealers only 22 percent of the time.

The one major plus Tek provides is his experience and aptitude for handling pitchers. Given the youth of the Red Sox staff, this quality must not be underestimated. While this factor, combined with Varitek’s postseason experience, may make the matchup a bit less lop-sided, Tampa Bay has a clear advantage behind the plate.

Edge: Rays

FIRST BASE

Boston: Mark Kotsay

Tampa Bay: Carlos Pena

Pena may not have duplicated his breakout numbers from 2007, but with 31 homers and 102 RBI, nobody in Saint Petersburg has been complaining. Pena has also shown a knack for coming up big in tight spots, as evidenced by his .338/.471/.738 line in close and late situation. He also played very well against Boston this season, batting.314/.429/.647 in over 60 trips to the plate.

Kotsay, who will play first due to Mike Lowell’s injury, has only one real advantage over Pena: defense. He flashed his skills with the glove several times during the ALDS and might just be as capable at the position as Kevin Youkilis, who is sliding over to third base to sub for Lowell.

Kotsay is no competition for Pena with the bat, but the Red Sox hope that he’ll be able to play at his career levels, which means a decent batting average and on-base percentage, and a little pop.

Significant Edge: Rays

SECOND BASE

Boston: Dustin Pedroia

Tampa Bay: Akinori Iwamura

Iwamura’s numbers are deceiving. At first glance, his .274/.349/.380 line suggests that his matchup with Pedroia would be a laugher. But Iwamura has batted .319/.385/.551 versus Boston this season, and .333/.440/.429 in close and late situations. He’s continued his timely hitting in October, batting .389/.421/.722 during his four ALDS games versus the White Sox.

Pedroia had also performed in the clutch all season (.368/.419/.526 close and late), but has shriveled in the postseason, so far. Apart from one double, which was indeed timely, driving in a run that helped Boston to win Game Four of its ALDS, Pedroia has gone hitless.

Of course, not much can be drawn from any of these ALDS numbers, given their small sample sizes. The Red Sox hope that his numbers so far are a statistical anomaly and that he returns to his MVP ways in the ALCS.

Edge: Red Sox

SHORTSTOP

Boston: Jed Lowrie

Tampa Bay: Jason Bartlett

This one shouldn’t be close, right? After all, Bartlett is the MVP of the Rays (I could write an entire piece on how objectively absurd that last statement is).

Bartlett and Lowrie are actually very similar in their offensive and defensive contributions. Lowrie may have a bit more gap power, while Bartlett may be slightly better with the glove.

It’s a pretty even call, but I’ll give Lowrie the edge, based on the momentum stemming from his decent ALDS performance at the plate (.364 average, .462 on-base percentage), which culminated his series-winning hit in Game Four.

Slight Edge: Red Sox

THIRD BASE

Red Sox: Kevin Youkilis

Rays: Evan Longoria

In all likelihood, Longoria will be the Rookie of the Year this season, and he could be competing for MVP awards as soon as 2009. He is really that good. He is still a rookie, though, and good pitchers find rookie weaknesses.

Red Sox pitchers held him to a .245.373.367 line, with 15 whiffs in 49 at-bats in 2008. He hit pretty well during the ALDS (.267/.353/.667), but still struck out six times in 15 at-bats.

Youkilis managed only a .232 average against Tampa Bay this season, but he still somehow drove in 14 runs in those 18 games. Again, small sample sizes can lead to odd conclusions.

In 2008 Youkilis was a monster with the bat (.312/.390/.569) and a natural with the glove at both first and third base. He wins this matchup, at least for now.

Edge: Red Sox

DESIGNATED HITTER

Boston: David Ortiz

Tampa Bay: Cliff Floyd/Rocco Baldelli

Floyd is now quite a few seasons removed from being a feared slugger, having failed to post an on-base plus slugging percentage rate (OPS) of over .900 since 2002. His 24 at-bats against Boston in 2008 were entirely forgettable (.401 OPS), and he was equally limp in the ALDS (.600 OPS).

He’s been platooned all year (he only had 10 at-bats versus lefties in 2008), so expect to see Rocco Baldelli in the role when Boston has a southpaw on the mound.

October is when Ortiz is supposed to shine, but he did anything but that in the ALDS, batting .235/.350/.294. Ortiz showed returning power in September, blasting six home runs and slugging .581, a couple of months removed from his midseason wrist surgery.

But his batting average was still quite low, suggesting that his hands still aren’t as quick as they once were (Ortiz has admitted as much to the press). Still, no one would choose Floyd or Baldelli over Ortiz when the game’s on the line.

Significant Edge: Red Sox

LEFT FIELD

Boston: Jason Bay

Tampa Bay: Carl Crawford

Crawford had his worst season since 2003 this year, before hitting the disabled list midseason with a finger injury. He still can burn on the base paths, but it’s unclear how ready his bat is for postseason baseball, and nothing he did in the ALDS suggested otherwise. At this point, he has to be considered a bit of an unknown.

Bay has to be happy to have broken out of Pittsburgh, which may not play October baseball until the Lunar Colony fields a team in the early 22nd century. He showed his appreciation for the opportunity to play in the ALDS by putting up a .412/.474/.882 line against the Angels. Bay has done nothing but rake since the Red Sox acquired him, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll stop now.

Edge: Red Sox

CENTER FIELD

Boston: Jacoby Ellsbury

Tampa Bay: B.J. Upton

Upton has had a very nice postseason so far, matching the promise he’s had going back to when he was selected second in the 2002 draft. Against the White Sox, he hit three home runs and scored five times, although he only managed to get on base at a .316 clip.

Upton’s 2008 has been a little disappointing (.273/.383.401, with nine home runs), after his breakout 2007 in which he hit 24 home runs to go along with a .300/.386/.508 line. The Rays hope that Upton is reverting back to 2007 form at just the right time.

Ellsbury was no slouch himself in the ALDS (.333/.400/.500), racking up six RBI and swiping three bags against the Angels. Ellsbury also disappointed a bit in 2008 after putting up excellent numbers in his September 2007 call-up (.353/.394/.509) and the 2007 postseason (.360/.429/.520). Maybe he just likes autumn, since he put up a .340/.367/.521 last month, too.

These players have very similar profiles, both having the ability to hit for average, run the bases extremely well, and play excellent defense. Upton has a slight edge because of the power potential he has shown both last season and so far this October.

Slight Edge: Rays

RIGHT FIELD

Boston: J.D. Drew/Coco Crisp

Tampa Bay: Gabe Gross/Fernando Perez

Gross has only one asset: a very strong arm. He might be worth having on a team as a defensive replacement, but he has no business starting games. He’s had one somewhat worthwhile season with the bat in his entire career (2003, when he went .274/.382/.476 for Milwaukee in 208 at-bats), but has otherwise been the picture of futility with the stick.

His career averages now sit at .242/.340/.412, and he’s done no better so far this October (.167/.375/.167), coming off of an anemic September (.240/.329/.387).

Perez has hit lefties adequately enough in this, his first, year (.292/.414/.458). He is not much of an option against righties (.222/.300/.417), so perhaps Gross is the best the Rays can come up with in most cases.

Once again, Drew came up big in October, with a game-winning two-run shot in Game Two of the ALDS. He was putting up MVP numbers (.302/.412/.572 before the All-Star break) when his back became an issue in August. He only managed 50 at-bats in August and September, and it seems that each game will bring a game-time decision on his status.

Since Drew has wilted a bit against lefties during his career (.246/.342/.398 over the last few seasons) it makes sense to sub in Crisp in at least those situations, to give Drew’s back a breather.

Of course, Crisp lacks Drew’s power at the plate, but at .283/.344/.407, he is an adequate replacement and provides some pesky speed. To put it in prospective, Crisp is better than either of the Rays’ two options.

Significant Edge: Red Sox

When it's all said and done, the Red Sox have guys you can feel comfortable counting on in the second through sixth spots in the lineup (Pedroia, Ortiz, Youkilis, Drew, Bay), whereas Tampa bay has a couple of sure performers (Pena, Upton, Longoria) and a few question marks (Gross, Crawford, Floyd). While Tampa wins some positional matchups, I give the Red Sox a slight overall edge in lineup strength.

What do you think? Vote in the poll above!

Who's the Real American League MVP?

Andrew Tirrell — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 09:40:29 -0400

Now that both of the League Division Series are sewn up, and there are a few off days in baseball, I thought that I would start giving thought to the A.L. MVP race.

Unlike the N.L. award, which under no circumstances should go to anyone but Albert Pujols, the A.L. award is actually up for grabs. I thought that it would be a fun exercise to imagine how I would fill out the ballot, if I had that responsibility as a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA).

In considering my ballot, I began to notice just how many first-timers are in contention this year. None among Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Carlos Quentin, or Kevin Youkilis has ever drawn even a single MVP vote.

Moreover, the trio of Aubrey Huff, Joe Mauer, and Grady Sizemore contains no top 10 MVP finishers. That leaves only Justin Morneau and Alex Rodriguez, who were back-to-back-to-back winners from 2005-2007, as repeat contenders.

While I did use sabermetric stats such as VORP and different forms of Win Shares to whittle down my list to the final 10, I relied on a variety of statistical, contextual, and observational criteria to make my final rankings.

I don’t believe that there’s any perfect system for assessing a player’s value to his team. Thus, I fully expect many to disagree with my choices and point to considerations that I have disregarded. But I hope that I’ve at least made it clear how and why I’ve come to the conclusions that I’ve made.

10. Justin Morneau

.300/.374/.499

It’s remarkable how close this season’s numbers have been to those of Morneau’s 2006 MVP campaign (though at first glance, it might not seem so). Morneau has tallied almost the same stats in several categories: runs (97 in 2006 to 97 in 2008), RBI (130 to 129), hits (190 to 187), and OBP (.375 to .374).

The main difference between the two years is in the power-hitting categories; Morneau’s slugging percentage dropped 60 points from 2006 to 2008, from .559 to .499. This can almost entirely be attributed to about 10 of his homers from ’06 (34 to 23) turning into doubles in ’08 (37 to 47).

Of course, this makes all the difference, as much of Morneau’s value comes from his ability to smoke the ball. First basemen have to bash to earn their keep, and slugging below .500 just won’t cut it for first basemen seeking MVP awards. Forget about Morneau for a moment.

If I told you that there was an MVP candidate who played an offensive-minded position, hit 23 home runs, and barely batted .300, what kind of chances would you give him to take home the MVP award? See? Morneau’s not even the MVP of his position or his team this year, let alone the entire league.

So why is Morneau even on my list? Couldn’t I have picked someone like Miguel Cabrera instead? Sure, and I was close to doing just that.

Cabrera’s advantage is that he leads the AL in homers (37), while finishing close to Morneau in RBI (127). Moreover, with Cabrera’s final line standing at.292/.349/.537, he edges Morneau in OPS (.887 for Cabrera vs. .873 for Morneau).

But, with the way that the Tigers have underperformed this year, and the way the Twins exceeded expectations, I’m leaning towards the Canuck (which, if you didn't know, is Canadian for "Canadian").

In the end, I don’t feel great about either choice—a first baseman who didn’t even achieve an OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) of .900 is not an ideal MVP candidate. I’ll stick with Morneau as my Mr. Irrelevant, but I wouldn’t fault you for going with Cabrera, or even Nick Markakis (.306/.406/.491) for that matter.

What the writers will say

Morneau has been generating a lot of buzz lately, but that may stop now that the Twins failed to make the postseason after all. It certainly helps that he’s got that recent MVP sheen to him, but he’d be lucky to finish in the top five.

It would have made all the difference if…

Morneau had turned some of those doubles into home runs, or maybe if he had merely come up with a game-winning home run during the play-in game against the White Sox.

9. Aubrey Huff

.304/.360/.552

Many baseball writers will have loads of stock excuses for keeping Huff off their ballots. He’s a DH, and therefore “only plays half the game” (Huff actually started 31 games at third base and 23 games at first, giving the Orioles some roster flexibility).

He was the best hitter on a last-place team. He was among the worst hitters in the league in the clutch (.219/.296/.323 in close and late situations).

He makes my ballot because, despite all those knocks on him, the guy plain raked all year long. After all, he finished fifth in the A.L. in OPS with a .912 mark, batted .304, cracked 32 home runs and 48 doubles, drove in 108 runs, and even scampered for four stolen bases (without being caught once—pretty good for a slow-footed DH!).

And remember, he did all this hitting in the midst of a mediocre Orioles lineup (it ranked eighth out of 14 AL teams in both OPS and runs). He’s not a flashy pick, but he deserves to make the ballot.

What the writers will say

I’m guessing he’s totally off the radar for most writers because of his team and fielding position.

It would have made all the difference if…

Huff’s Orioles hadn’t been patsies this year.

8. Ian Kinsler

.319/.375/.517

Had Ian Kinsler’s season not ended on Aug. 17, this 2008 A.L. MVP debate might have been all about whether MVPs need to be “clutch” or need to play on winning teams, or both (actually, it is: see Rodriguez, Alex).

After all, projecting Kinsler’s stats out to a full season produces some MVP-worthy numbers, especially for a second baseman. Over a full season, to go along with that .902 OPS, Kinsler was on pace to smack 23 home runs, lead the league in runs with 132, drive in 91 runs, and steal 33 bases. Pretty impressive.

Of course, no one knows whether Kinsler could have kept that pace up. And by going down with a sports hernia (and thereby missing a quarter of the season), Kinsler saved the writers the trouble of the clutch/winning team debates.

After all, with a .222/.308/.302 line in close and late situations, Kinsler was about as anti-clutch as a star player gets. And with a 74-88 record, Texas was not much of a contender.

So maybe Kinsler was doomed all along, injury or no injury. Or maybe he just needed to spend that lost month-and-a-half of the season hitting game-winning homers and playing Gold Glove defense, simultaneously gaining his clutch street cred and driving the Rangers to a playoff berth.

Hey, it coulda happened, right? Nah.

What the writers will say

Missing the last quarter of the season might keep him off most ballots, and at least removes him from serious contention.

It would have made all the difference if…

Kinsler could have stayed healthy and kept up that pace.

7. Alex Rodriguez

.302/.392/.573

Year after year, Alex Rodriguez puts up the kind of numbers the keep him at the center of the MVP debate. And every year, pundits try to answer the same question: Is A-Rod clutch or not? (See, told you we’d be having that debate after all.) Rodriguez has a reputation as a perennial choke artist, but the numbers paint a different picture.

Close and late statistics

Year AVG OBP SLG OPS

2008 .257/.361/.429/.790

2007 .357/.439/.686/1.125

2006 .237/.326/.368/.694

2005 .293/.418/.520/.938

2004 .275/.359/.438/.796

The truth is, Rodriguez has only underperformed every other year in tight situations since joining the Yankees in 2004. And, in fairness, he was only truly bad in those situations in 2006; in 2004 and 2008 he merely batted like a league average third baseman in the clutch (which is to say, well below his ability).

Now, I don't believe there's any pattern to this. In fact, I’m not sure that I believe in clutch hitting as a repeatable skill. A few players come to mind as having put up great high-pressure numbers for many years in a row (David Ortiz 2003-2006, for example).

Most, however, follow up a strong clutch season with some kind of regression to the mean. If you look at their numbers year to year, you might see a couple of good seasons strung together, but you’re as likely to see the clutch numbers yo-yoing all over the place.

But as far as the MVP debate goes, it doesn’t even matter if “clutchness” is a skill or an aggregation of good luck. The MVP award is for the most valuable player of one particular year. We consistently name players MVP based on years that are clearly statistical outliers.

The point isn’t whether the player can repeat his performance the next year. The point is that he drove his team to greater heights, whether by skill, luck, or (most frequently) a judicious blend of the two.

Rodriguez drove the Yankees to (relative) greatness in 2005 and in 2007. If anything, he was perceived to have the opposite effect this year, and advanced metrics such as Runs Created and Win Probability Added bear this gut reaction out (he failed to rank among the top 15 AL batters in both).

His performance in high-leverage situations wasn’t the only reason that the Yankees failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 1994, but it was certainly a contributing factor to a greater malaise. The baseball-card numbers may say MVP, but the results say disappointment.

What the writers will say

His struggles in meaningful situations have been so openly discussed by the media that I doubt he has any serious chance of winning the award despite his phenomenal numbers. Nevertheless, his overall numbers should keep him on most ballots.

It would have made all the difference if…

Rodriguez had partied in the clutch like it was 2007 (or even 2005).

6. Grady Sizemore

.268/.374/.502

Two men have won an MVP award with a batting average below .270.

In 1944, St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Marty “the Octopus” Marion won the award based almost entirely on his defensive contributions. Marion was known throughout the 1940s as a defensive wizard and would be the best known Cardinals shortstop ever if Ozzie Smith hadn’t come along to one-up him in the 1980s.

Still, how a guy that batted .267/.324/.362 won an MVP award is beyond me, especially when his teammate Stan Musial put up a .347/.440/.549 line that year. Maybe the writers thought it would be unfair to give it to Musial again after he won in 1943.

I know what you’re thinking, maybe Marion was a great base stealer. Well, he was perfect that year on the base paths; he stole one base and was never caught (Musial stole seven).

The other guy that managed to snag an MVP award without cracking .270 just might have been a bit more deserving. After all, you have to give a guy credit for breaking the single-season home run record, especially without the aid of pharmaceuticals (amphetamines don’t count, right?).

Roger Maris hit .269/.372/.620 during his 61 in ’61 season to win his second-straight MVP award. The writers gave Maris a pass for his low batting average, even with Norm Cash’s career year to lure them away (361/.487/.662, with 41 bombs, 119 runs, 132 RBI, and 11 steals).

That Maris won the award in the face of Cash’s numbers was more a testament to how amazing it was to see Ruth’s record fall than to who was the top offensive player in the league that year.

Grady Sizemore is no Maris, and I doubt we’ll see an encore of the 1944 voting. Nor do I believe he should win the award, despite my indifference to batting average when it can be replaced by a robust on base percentage (.374). Some of Sizemore’s counting numbers are alluring (specifically the 33 home runs and 38 stolen bases).

But, because of that low batting average, his OPS (.876) is relatively low for a guy who hit for so much power, and he wasn’t among the league leaders in any other offensive categories.

Moreover, picked by many to win their division, the Indians underachieved in a big way, and he played a part in that. With a .149/.357/.324 line in close and late situations, his ability to hit for power, or even get a hit at all, disappeared when it mattered the most, so he wasn’t much help in pulling out tight wins (beyond taking walks).

As a center fielder, his overall numbers are still outstanding, but there are too many flaws here to make him an up-ballot choice.

What the writers will say

I think there will be too much focus on his batting average to allow him to get serious consideration for the top spot, but he might still make many ballots on the overall strength of his numbers.

It would have made all the difference if…

Sizemore could have just cracked .280 in the batting average department.

5. Josh Hamilton

.304/.371/.530

In July, Hamilton was the consensus MVP favorite. His comeback story (drug user kicks the habit and makes good), combined with gaudy first-half stats (.310/.357/.562, with 21 HR and 7 SB before the All Star break), propelled him to enormous popularity, even before his record-setting performance in the first round of the Home Run Derby.

His second half numbers have flagged a bit (.296/.376/.498, 11 HR, 2 SB), but they are still excellent for a center fielder.

Of course, Hamilton isn’t your prototypical center fielder. He’s a middle-of-the-order hitter, with a league-leading 130 RBI, a power stroke, and significant defensive limitations. The limitations are a big part of what holds Hamilton back as an MVP candidate in my mind.

According to John Dewan’s Revised Zone Rating stat, Hamilton is the second worst starting center fielder in the American League. If you prefer to rely on Bill James’ Fielding Win Shares, Hamilton fares no better, again finishing second to last in the league. Clearly, some of the value Hamilton gains by being such a good hitter he gives right back when he takes the field.

The upshot of all this is that Hamilton doesn’t deserve a center fielder “bonus” when looking at his numbers. He should be compared right alongside corner outfielders, designated hitters, and first basemen, and therefore power numbers are to be expected.

The problem for Hamilton is that he is outshone one way or another by the two other top power bats in the MVP race, Carlos Quentin and Kevin Youkilis. As a true center fielder, Hamilton would have been your 2008 MVP. But he is what he is, and no one in Texas is complaining about that.

What the writers will say

Some will still like the feel-good story enough to give him the nod as the top choice. But, given his second-half fade, and his team’s drop out of contention, he’ll likely have to settle for a finish in the top five.

It would have made all the difference if…

Hamilton had kept up the pace in slugging and ended up leading the league in home runs in addition to RBI.

4. Carlos Quentin

.288/.394/.571

Oh, what might have been! On Sept. 1, 2008, with less than a month to go in the season, Carlos Quentin seemed like a shoo-in for A.L. MVP. In the month-and-a-half after the All-Star break, Quentin had batted .312/..436/.681, with 14 home runs. He was on a roll, and it seemed like nothing could stop him from taking home the hardware.

And then he broke his wrist.

Not making a diving catch. Not being hit by an inside fastball. Not sliding into home plate. He broke his own wrist. He just took his bat and struck himself in the hand. As he explained:

“Something I've done thousands of times since I was a kid—a little frustrated. I had the bat in my left hand, and I just kind of hit down on the bat head with my right hand with a closed fist. I kind of hit a little bit low, nicked my wrist and finished the at-bat.”

And that’s how an MVP campaign ends.

The amazing thing is that he almost ended up with the league lead in home runs, even while missing the entire month (Miguel Cabrera, who finished with one more homer, didn’t pass him until Sept. 27). And his overall numbers, including a .351/.448/.757 line in close and late situations, are still good enough to keep him on the top half of the ballot.

After all, had Quentin missed the same amount of time around the middle of the season (as Alex Rodriguez did in May, for example), it wouldn’t have seemed like nearly such a deal-breaker for MVP consideration.

But had Quentin played at all in September, even while slumping, he would have easily finished as the consensus favorite.

For example, if Quentin had finished September with the same stats he compiled in June, his worst month of the season, he would have still added five home runs, 13 RBI, and 18 runs to his season totals. Is there any way he wouldn’t win the award with 41 home runs, 113 RBI, and 114 runs, even if his rate line dropped to something like .285/.390/.550 because of the slump?

Alas, bad things happen. As it is, he’ll have to settle for being a serious part of the MVP conversation in his first full season as a regular. If all goes well, he’ll have another dozen years or so to mash his way to an MVP.

What the writers will say

Some writers won’t forgive the fact that Quentin went down at the end of the year, no matter that the games are worth the same in April as they are in September. He deserves to finish in the top five, but he could end up being shunted to the bottom of a lot of ballots for his bad timing.

It would have made all the difference if…

Quentin had said “Aw shucks!” and channeled his frustration into crushing the next pitch he saw, instead of taking it on his own wrist.

3. Joe Mauer

.328/.413/.451

Most casual baseball followers probably think of Morneau, not Mauer, as the MVP of the Twins. After all, as a power-hitter and an RBI machine, the big Canadian has a more classic MVP profile than Mauer. The fact that Morneau won the award in 2006 only further cements this perception.

A closer look, however, reveals that despite his low home run and RBI totals, Mauer has provided his team with much more value this season. Most fans know that, at .328, Mauer is the A.L. batting champion, but many might not realize that he also finished second in on-base percentage (.413), one of only three A.L. batters to get on base more than 40 percent of the time.

True, he lacks flashy counting numbers by general standards, not cracking 100 in either runs or RBI, while hitting a mere nine home runs and swiping only one bag. For a catcher, however, his numbers are excellent, and he was by far the best in the league at his position.

Moreover, by all accounts, Mauer is an excellent defensive catcher and a superb game-caller. One need only look at the fine numbers put up by Minnesota’s unheralded pitching staff (a 4.16 ERA and 1.35 WHIP from a staff topped most of the year by Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker) to see that Mauer has been a team leader in ways that are unquantifiable.

Still, while these factors are more than adequate to push Mauer to the top of my ballot, they aren’t quite enough to get him the nod as my MVP. This is no slight against Mauer; rather it is recognition of his competition.

Put simply, if you’re inclined to choose an up-the-middle player who mixes superb defense with stellar at-bats, you’d pick Dustin Pedroia, for reasons given below. And if you’re inclined to vote for a traditional slugger, Mauer isn’t even on your radar.

Mauer may be the most valuable player on his team, not to mention his division, but he’s not quite the MVP of the league this year. Nevertheless, he has an excellent chance of being in the discussion for years to come.

What the writers will say

As an nontraditional candidate, Mauer will likely have a hard time getting the attention he deserves from many writers. He is not likely to be a serious candidate for the top spot for even those who appreciate his skills.

It would have made all the difference if…

Mauer had crushed a few more balls, eclipsed 100 runs (he finished at 98), and the Twins had squeaked their way into the playoffs.

2. Kevin Youkilis

.312/.390/.569

1. Dustin Pedroia

.326/.376/.493

I’m examining these two side-by-side because I found this final determination to be so difficult.

Choosing Pedroia over Joe Mauer wasn’t so difficult. Not only did Pedroia exhibit the same skills as Mauer (hitting for average, getting on base, and playing excellent defense), he was also a decent power-hitter (17 HR and a majors-leading 54 doubles) and base-stealer (20 SB), especially relative to his position.

Choosing Pedroia over Youkilis was the hard part.

It’s an apples and oranges situation. The two play very different styles of baseball. Pedroia’s game is a compromise of contact hitting (he led the league in hits and was second in batting average), gap power (with his fair share long balls), speed, and excellent middle-infield defense.

Youkilis (at least the 2008 version) is a more traditional slugger, who provided value through his high batting average, stellar on base percentage, and his ability to play excellent defense at two positions. The latter ability was especially important this year, as he made a seemingly effortless transition across the diamond to sub in during Lowell’s many 2008 injury breaks.

Beyond these differences, however, there are a remarkable number of similarities between the two. Both hit for average, have good on-base skills, and have been embraced by teammates and fans alike as gritty leaders of a Red Sox team that can no longer rely on the offense of Manny Ramirez (now out in Hollywood) and David Ortiz (not quite the same since he injured his wrist).

Fitting in with the overall theme of this year’s A.L. MVP race, both Youkilis and Pedroia can count 2008 as the most successful season of their young careers.

As far as I can see, it’s a toss up. I ended up focusing on a few things to make my final decision:

1. Pedroia didn’t just steal a lot of bases; he was extremely efficient, only being caught once in 21 attempts. Youkilis, on the other hand, not only was no base stealing threat, he was actually caught (5) more times than he was successful (3). His attempts at thievery hurt the team much more than they helped.

2. While Youkilis played great defense all season, Pedroia was equally adept, and he did it at a more demanding and higher-impact position.

3. Both hit pretty well in the clutch, but Pedroia’s .368/.419/.526 line in close and late situations far exceeded his norms, while Youkilis’s .927 close and late OPS fell below his season mark.

Admittedly, these are fairly arbitrary considerations on which to base an MVP award. Like I said, it was a toss up to me, and these paltry differences seemed better than a coin flip (and don’t think that there aren’t writers feeling around in their pocket for a quarter as they fill out their ballots).

In the end, the Red Sox are extraordinarily lucky (or well-managed) to have had two players (neither of whom was even among their top three hitters last season) develop into MVP candidates just as the team needed to replace some offensive firepower.

What the writers will say

I think one or the other will win the award. With this combination of statistical success, hype, and being a crucial part of a playoff team, it is almost a foregone conclusion that one of the two will come out on top. Each of them has made headlines for stepping up for a Red Sox team beleaguered by injuries.

It would have made all the difference if…

Pedroia had eclipsed the 20 home-run mark. I think he’d be the shoo-in as a 20-20, slick-fielding, clutch-hitting second baseman on a winning team. I think Youkilis’s chances would have been better if he had hit just one more bomb, since we’ve grown accustomed to seeing MVP sluggers hit at least 30 home runs.

In the end, this exercise left me with one sure conclusion: I really respect the difficulty writers face in not only choosing the MVP, but also ranking the nine runners up. I am fairly sure that I’ve at least included the top seven or eight most deserving players in my list, but I can’t say that I would disagree strongly with any number of alternate orders that they could be ranked in.

As I’m sure many of the BBWAA writers must do as they vote for the various year-end awards, at some point I just had to stop running through the numbers and make some tough calls.

Don't forget to vote for your MVP choice in the poll above before you leave!

Arms Race: Do the Red Sox Have the Bullpen Weapons for a Successful Postseason?

Andrew Tirrell — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 07:06:08 -0400

The Red Sox weathered a lot of storms to get here. Clay Buchholz pitched like a rookie (and not the kind that tosses no-hitters and dominates the league). Early on, the only thing David Ortiz hit hard was the DL, with a wrist injury, which sapped his power even when he finally returned to play.

Schilling hung up the cleats, and Manny Ramirez hung the team out to dry. And a variety of injuries sidelined Drew, Lowell, Lugo, Beckett, Wakefield, Colon and Matsuzaka at various points this year. But more than any one factor out of the smorgasbord of issues that could have derailed Boston's playoff hopes, the bullpen seemed to be the biggest threat to Boston's chance to defend its 2007 championship during the first few months of the season.

Consider this: After the first month of baseball Boston relievers had a combined ERA of over five. By June they had lowered that number to 4.33, still an alarming rate of hemorrhaging runs for guys who are supposed to be holding leads. That isn't even counting the inherited runners left on by Boston's starters who came around to score on the bullpen's watch (I wrote about this phenomenon in more detail when discussing Okajima’s early season woes).

Mike Timlin, once a bullpen stalwart, compiled a 6.31 ERA by the All Star break, and Craig Hansen, once anointed as "closer of the future", rung up an ERA of 5.58. Even Manny Delcarmen, who had a breakout 2007 season with a 2.05 ERA, struggled to a first half 4.54 mark.

Fans were clamoring for a deadline deal to bring in a reliable reliever, and there was much gnashing of teeth in Beantown when the Jason Bay deal failed to nab Jason Grabow. Instead, Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein stayed the course and counted on his bullpen arms to round into form in time for October. Guess who looks like a genius again?

With a 3.49 ERA over the past month, Boston has sported the third best bullpen in the American League, and the best among all AL playoff contenders over that span. During that same time Tampa Bay, Boston's current division rival, had a 3.82 bullpen ERA, and Anaheim, Boston's likely first round playoff match up, had a 4.17 relief ERA.

Boston has relied of five high-leverage arms to protect leads or keep the team in ballgames over the past couple of months. Let's take a closer look at each of them.

Justin Masterson

Masterson has quietly compiled a 2.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP as reliever this year, after giving the Red Sox several quality starts while filling in for injures around the middle of the season.

At first Masterson was used somewhat inefficiently in the bullpen as a mop-up man, pitching when Boston was either winning easily or down by many runs. But gradually manager Terry Francona eased the towering righty into more meaningful situations. Lately he has not even been afraid to bring the sinkerballer in with men on base, making use of Masterson’s ability to draw batters into double plays. Masterson has been especially good in September, compiling a 1.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, and helping to fuel Boston's playoff push.

The one criticism you could levy against Masterson is that he sometimes gets too fine, walking batters in an attempt to make the perfect pitch, rather than coming right after them. This is especially maddening when a double play is in order. Hopefully, this tendency will disappear as Masterson matures as a pitcher, and learns to trust his ability.

In the meantime, nobody will argue with the results he has put up as a rookie. The only questions remaining are whether he can keep it up under postseason pressure, and whether his long-term place will be in the bullpen or the rotation.

Javier Lopez

Lopez is one of the more dramatic examples of a situational lefty that you could find. In 2008, as in most years, righties have pounded him at a .305/.357/.458 rate, while southpaws are absolutely tamed by him to the tune of .187/.307/.290. Actually that lefty split would look even more dominating if not for Lopez's one flaw: control.

For some reason Lopez gives up a high number of free passes when facing his own kind. Perhaps it is because he relies on swings and misses or poorly hit grounders off of his breaking pitches, which he throws out of the strike zone (usually low and away from left-handed hitters). When those hitters guess correctly and hold off on that pitch, he walks them.

Who knows what would happen if he decided to throw strikes in those three ball counts. Maybe he would get crushed. But it must be frustrating for Francona to bring Lopez in against one lefty (like he did against Grady Sizemore a few days ago), only to see that batter trot to first base in the end.

Interestingly, despite the massive righty/lefty split, Francona has pitted Lopez against just about as many righty batters as southpaws this year. Nevertheless, the fact that righties have hit only just as many RBIs against him as lefties have this year (despite the splits) suggests that Francona has been careful not to leave Lopez in against righties when men are in scoring position. In fact, it's probably safe to say that many of those at bats against righties came in low-leverage situations, when the game wasn't close and Francona wanted to squeeze a complete inning out of Lopez. You can bet (or at least pray) that Francona won't be keeping Lopez in against righties in critical postseason at bats.

Lopez, like the rest of the bullpen, has also had September success, not allowing a run this month. But his WHIP of 1.50, and his 6/7 strikeout-to-walk ratio, illustrate that his problem with walking batters hasn't improved lately.

Manny Delcarmen

If you expected Delcarmen to repeat his astounding 2007 performance in 2008, then you're likely disappointed.

With an ERA of 3.36 and a WHIP of 1.12, Delcarmen has performed within the range of an excellent reliever; but, those numbers do not scream "future ace closer." An ERA of 4.54 over the first half of the season caused many to forget just how exceptional he was last year.

September, however, has been a different story for Delcarmen, who returned to dominant form with an ERA of 0.68 and a WHIP of 0.67 this month, while holding opposing batters to a .161 batting average.

Of course, sample size is key here- clearly Delcarmen could not keep up those miniscule numbers over the course of an entire season. But with an 8.96 strikeout-per-nine-innings ratio (that's just about a batter per inning), the Boston native has the tools to retain some of his September gains and party like it's 2007 during the postseason.

Luckily for Red Sox fans, the young Delcarmen should remain in Boston for years to come.

Hideki Okajima

Okajima may never again have another 2007, when his unusual delivery and unorthodox repertoire took American batters by surprise, leading to a 2.22 ERA, .097 WHIP, and an All Star selection.

As his current 2.66 ERA and 1.18 WHIP would suggest, however, he continues to be a very reliable pitcher. He still strikes out about a batter per inning (he has an 8.56 K/9IP rate in 2008, a touch higher than in 2007), and the struggles he had with allowing inherited runners to score appear to have been merely an early season blip. His September numbers have been even more outstanding (1.50 ERA, 0.80 WHIP), and Terry Francona seems to trust him as an ace set-up man again.

Okajima is especially useful when multiple lefties are set to bat in the seventh or eight inning (he has dominated lefties at a .188/.241/.317 clip this season), but he is also very effective against righties (.242/.326/.355), and thus can be used in any late and close situation.

Pairing Okajima with Delcarmen, Boston has a steady bridge between its starters and Jonathan Papelbon, a definite postseason advantage. Although, after Daisuke Matsuzaka's phenomenal season, Okajima may no longer be thought of as the best Japanese pitcher on the Red Sox, he remains an excellent under-the-radar acquisition by Theo Epstein.

Jonathan Papelbon

It’s fitting to end this piece with a player who has brought a close to many a Red Sox win in his short time in the big leagues. Can Papelbon ever outdo himself after the way he started his career?

With an ERA of 1.98 and a WHIP of 0.89 this year, he sure is trying.

In fact, all of his stats are gaudy, to say the least. A 10.01 strikeout-per-game ratio? Absurd. A 10-1 strikeout-per-walk ratio? Even more ridiculous. Only the fact that we’ve come to expect such dominance from him keeps us from truly appreciating how incredible he’s been.

Papelbon was never the problem in the pen, but he did start off the first half of the year with a relatively pedestrian (for him) 2.43 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Since then he has been on an unreal pace: 1.35 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and not a single walk. Think about that again. Not one walk over the past 2+ months.

He refuses to back down, and opposing batters still strike out, despite knowing that he’s going to throw bullets across the plate. He just overpowers them.

There's never a sure thing, especially in October. But when the game's on the line there are only a few relievers who make their fans feel truly safe, and Papelbon is one of them.

***

Even after the felicitous events of 2004 and 2007, Red Sox fans who can recall 1975, 1986, or even 2003, are always waiting for something to go wrong, especially when things seem to be going right.

In 2008, however, things started going right for the bullpen just when it seemed like relief pitching might be the primary thing that would hold Boston back in October.

Maybe this will finally convince some Red Sox fans that they can drop "cursed" from their baseball vocabulary. But I have a feeling that some of those same fans are thinking, "Uh oh, now what?"

No matter. Theo Epstein is on another crusade to prove them happily wrong, and believe me, he's armed to the teeth.

Red Sox-Rangers: Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell Team Up to Topple Texas

Andrew Tirrell — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 16:35:01 -0400

Josh Beckett, returning from the disabled list, pitched five shutout innings and received the win in Boston's 8-1 triumph over the Texas Rangers tonight. Beckett gave up four hits, no walks, and struck out seven, just one week after visiting with Dr. James Andrews to have his right elbow examined.

Dr. Andrews gave Beckett a clean bill of health, but the Red Sox brass still chose to limit Beckett's pitch count as a precautionary measure. Beckett threw 80 pitches—49 for strikes—in the outing.

Lowell, also returning from the DL, led Red Sox batters with four RBI and also crushed his 15th home run. He was 3-for-5 in the game, showing no signs of discomfort from the right-oblique strain that had benched him since Aug. 13.

Lowell's presence at third base pushed Jed Lowrie over to shortstop, returning Alex Cora to the bench. Coco Crisp, who also went 3-for-5, added three RBI. Jason Bay had one hit in three at-bats but also walked twice and scored two runs.

Boston's win, combined with Tampa Bay's 6-4 loss against Toronto, pulled the Red Sox within two-and-a-half games of the A.L.-East-leading Rays. Beckett's successful return to the rotation gives a significant boost to Boston's October hopes.

An Evening In Pittsburgh: PNC Park, the Pirates' Future, and Another Brewer Win

Andrew Tirrell — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 11:13:44 -0400

When I was growing up, Pittsburgh was not the kind of place people talked about going to for a vacation. It had a reputation as being gritty, polluted, uneducated, and boring. It was lumped in with other rust-belt cities in decline, like Cleveland, Buffalo, and Detroit: bad weather, no amenities, decaying downtown.

Yet after hearing many glowing reviews of it from friends recently, I found myself making the seven-hour drive there last weekend from my home in Queens, NY.

Here's the upshot of it all: I loved Pittsburgh. It was a great city, in every respect. It was surprisingly clean, but perhaps anything would seem clean for someone who's lived in the Big Crapple for any period of time (just a joke, fellow New Yorkers!).

It was also affordable and picturesque; there was a lot to do, and the people were great. And I mean really great. One example: I stopped to ask directions and this very nice woman actually offered to pull out her computer and Mapquest my destination using wireless Internet at a local coffee shop.

Maybe I've become jaded by life in New York, but that seems crazy nice to me. And it wasn't an isolated incident. Everyone was so friendly.

So, after a lovely first day in Pittsburgh, I admittedly was in a pretty good mood, and the fact that we were going to a baseball game that evening only made things better. After parking downtown (for free!) my girlfriend and I walked across the lovely Roberto Clemente Bridge to PNC Park, which lies across the Allegheny River from central Pittsburgh.

The bridge was closed off to vehicle traffic, and folks were leisurely wandering across the river, enjoying the nice weather (clear skies, temp in the low-80s). As you cross the bridge, you come to the street that runs along the eastern side of the park. Immediately on your left is a very nice statue of Clemente himself—as well as several attractive restaurants associated with the stadium (outdoor seating, and what smelled like decent enough food).

On the right side of the street are private restaurants and bars, also with plenty of outdoor tables. We chose one of those restaurants and had a nice (and surprisingly cheap) meal and drink before the game.

The next part blew me away.

After our meal, we were able to walk right up to the box office and purchase same-day grandstand seats for $9 a piece. Now, maybe that seems normal to some of you, but as someone who has spent many hours scouring Stub Hub and eBay for Fenway tickets, only to either find: a) nothing; or, b) bleacher seats for $50 a piece, I was astounded that good, cheap seats would be available just minutes before game time (despite having been assured by others beforehand that my last minute plan would work).

Heck, even tickets at Shea Stadium, not considered a tough find, start off at roughly $25 a pop these days.

But that wasn't even the best part.

The best part was that those last-minute, $9 seats yielded us one of the most spectacular views of a city I've ever seen, and certainly the best I've seen while planted in a stadium seat (see the above photo for the approximate view we had).

Though we purchased outfield grandstand seats, we entered near the home plate grandstand and easily found empty seats to poach almost directly behind the plate. Rather than suspiciously asking for our tickets and trying to catch us in the wrong seats, our usher, Helen, was friendly and even gave us sightseeing tips for the following day.

Helen has been an usher for the Pirates for 20 years I learned (which, judging by appearances, means she started ushering sometime during her 50s), and she walks to PNC from her home every game day.

Soon, Paul Maholm threw out the first pitch, and I began to concentrate on baseball. I noted the following during that game (Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers, Aug. 30, 2008):

1. They gave all the fans Willie Stargell collectible plates at the door, but the plates have a big sticker on them saying that eating off of them could poison you. Maybe I've been a lawyer too long (actually it's only been three years), but that sounds like a lawsuit waiting to happen. Seriously, "Here's a plate, now don't eat off of it." You gotta think there's a better promotion idea than that. How about a bobble head that explodes if shaken?

2. Unbelievably, Ryan Doumit is the only player in either team's lineup batting over .300, though at .299 Braun is as close as you could get.

3. Actually, besides Doumit, Pittsburgh didn't start a player batting over .277. Ouch, this one could be ugly for the Pirates. Maholm makes it through the first unscathed.

4. Nyjer Morgan, the Pirates' leadoff hitter, comes to bat at the bottom of the first and a weird watercolor image of his face appears on the Jumbotron. Do you think they really had him sit for a watercolor portrait?

Did he ok this painting in lieu of his photo? In other parks, players enter to hard rock or rap songs. Nyjer enters to a silence and a pastel portrait.

5. Now I'm starting to understand Nyjer's choice—all of the other Pirates players are in photos, but the photos are dark and creepy, with the players either giving you a menacing look, or staring of blankly into the distance. It looks like the kind of artistic photos a Goth teenager would make with his friends. Good call, Nyjer.

6. After a few innings, my girlfriend points out that none of the Pirates' players have badass intro music. It's like they can't even pretend their team is intimidating. We start talking about the music the Mets' players use (we live a mile or so from Shea), and remember that there's a lot of salsa and meringue.

After a brief mental inventory we realize that approximately 98.645385649% of the team is Latino. Seriously, think about it: Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Fernando Tatis, Endy Chavez, Angel Pagan, Robinson Cancel, Ramon Castro, Moises Alou, Johan Santana, Oliver Perez, Pedro Martinez, Pedro Feliciano, Ambiorix Burgos, Tony Armas, Duaner Sanchez, Luis Ayala, and El Duque. And that's not even counting Jason Vargas, because, frankly, the dude looks a little pasty to me.

7. The Brewers bust things open with a five-run sixth inning, and Maholm is chased from the game. Later in the sixth, Brandon Moss homered and the Pirates set off fireworks to celebrate the blast. "We may be down 7-2, but we have all these fireworks!" I actually think that the fireworks are a nice touch, and it sure made the kids near us happy.

8. I also realized that, more than a month after the Bay-Ramirez trade, I still have a soft spot for Brandon Moss, whom the Red Sox sent over with Craig Hansen as part of the compensation for Bay. I'm happy that Moss has been embraced in Pittsburgh, and I hope he does well. He wasn't ever going to get a real chance to start in Boston.

As for Hansen, good riddance. That's why you don't use your top pick for a reliever. If a starter doesn't pan out, you put them in the bullpen. If a reliever doesn't pan out, you can use them to throw batting practice. Enjoy that ERA of 10, Pirates fans.

9. As beautiful as the skyline was when we first arrived, seeing the sun set against it is amazing. If the Pirates could only field a decent (not necessarily even great) team this place would be packed every game. A great venue with lots of amenities, cheap seats, good food options, walking distance from downtown—all they need is compelling baseball and they'd have the complete package.

But when you try to trade fireworks for wins, eventually your fans are going to lose interest. The Pirates actually have quite a proud history, with five championships and many memorable players (Clemente, Stargell, Mazeroski, Honus Wagner, Ralph Kiner, Pie Traynor).

If General Manager Neal Huntington can just stop the bleeding that was caused by former GM Dave Littlefield's boneheaded leadership (prime example: taking on the corpse of Matt Morris and his bloated contract last year and even giving up two prospects in return!), this team should be able to gather the resources to compete.

Huntington has stated that he favors sabermetric evaluation of players, which is a good first step. And he has at least realized that the team can't win as configured, hence the recent trades of veterans Bay, Damaso Marte, and Xavier Nady, for young talent including interesting prospects in Jose Tabata (once the prized position-prospect of the Yankees' system, who has done nothing but rake since the trade) and Andy LaRoche (reunited in Pittsburgh with brother Adam).

But until the rewards of such moves are realized, I can't blame continued skepticism on the part of the Pirates' fanbase. After all, they are 15 years removed from a winning season.

10. Well, the Pirates tried to make it interesting, putting a final run across the plate in the bottom of the ninth, but in the end, they took their ninth-straight loss. I guess that's about all you can hope for from what amounts to a AAA lineup.

Despite the lopsided 11-3 score, I was surprised by how much I enjoyed the game. I guess the venue does make quite a difference. In my mind, there's nothing like watching a game in a historic ballpark like Wrigley or Fenway.

But as far as new parks go, PNC is definitely my favorite (eclipsing even Camden (Baltimore) and AT&T (San Francisco)). And its unexpectedly lovely home-city is just icing on the cake. I have a feeling that I'll be back, and hopefully the next time I'll be as inspired by the team as I am the ballpark.

Red Sox Roster Review Part III: The Pitchers

Andrew Tirrell — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 14:48:23 -0400

In 2008, for the first time in several years, the Red Sox underwent little roster turnover to begin the season. Almost every face on Boston's opening-day roster was familiar, a stability born of the increasing numbers of Red Sox players under the team's long-term control.

Will this trend continue in the years to come?

This third installment of a series of articles (check out Part One and Part Two of this series, as well), which examines the Red Sox's roster, position by position, and predicts the team's composition in 2009 and beyond, focuses on the pitching staff.

Starting Pitchers

In 2007, Boston led the American League in ERA (3.87) and WHIP (1.27), trailing only San Diego for the major-league lead in ERA (while equaling the Padres in WHIP). This feat is especially remarkable when you consider that the Red Sox play half of their games at Fenway, one of the A.L.'s most hitter-friendly parks.

Much of the staff's overall success in 2007 can be attributed to the rotation. It was a veteran group: Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, and Tim Wakefield. Beckett was the baby, with a mere seven seasons of major-league experience (Daisuke had pitched eight seasons in Japan before coming to Boston).

The Red Sox rode a Cy Young-caliber season from Beckett, a respectable final season from Schill, a decent rookie year from Daisuke, and inning-eating performances from Wakefield to their seventh World Series title (their second in the past four years).

But as much as their veteran starters drove their success, the Sox were equally dependent on their depth to fill in holes left by injury (Schilling) and incompetence (Julian Tavarez).

Youngsters Jon Lester, Kason Gabbard, and Clay Buchholz combined for 21 starts over 126-2/3 innings and posted a 3.77 ERA. With that kind of talent on the ascent, and with the hope that Matsuzaka could improve his performance, expectations were high for the 2008 rotation.

Unfortunately, despite excellent years from Lester, Daisuke, and Wakefield, so far this season, Boston's starters have been middling (sixth in the AL in ERA and WHIP) due to injury, inconsistency, and a serious sophomore slump from Buchholz.

Still, despite the hiccups this year, the rotation looks to be stable and locked in as one of the A.L.'s best for the next five years or so.

Clay Buchholz began 2008 listed by many experts as one of the top prospects in all of baseball. With one no-hitter under his belt, continued dominance was not out of the question, and at the least a league-average performance seemed guaranteed.

But after a 6.75 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP, 2008 was finally declared a lost season for Clay, and he was sent down to the minors to work out his problems. Some have blamed Buchholz's problems on new mechanics prescribed by the coaching staff.

Others note that many young pitchers struggle in their second season, as opposing batters start to figure them out, and that only those hurlers who can make adjustments find lasting success.

Whatever the case, Buchholz's problems have not drastically affected his minor-league starts this year—he has a 2.30 ERA with 61 Ks and 18 walks in 58-2/3 minor-league innings this season.

Moreover, he has been lights-out in his most recent starts since being demoted: three earned runs in 15 innings with 18 Ks and one walk. All signs point to Clay becoming a useful member of the rotation sometime in 2009 and not looking back thereafter.

Perhaps he will only turn out to be No. 2 starter, but he has all the tools to be an ace if he can pull it all together. The best part for the Red Sox: He's under their control until at least 2013.

Jon Lester has gone from inspirational story, to history maker, and to ace material, all over just about a year-and-a-half. Last season, he was just happy to be able to get back on the mound and pitch again after an unexpected battle with lymphoma (a type of cancer) that was discovered after the 2006 season.

So far in 2008, Lester hasn't been satisfied with anything less than dominance, as he has gone 13-5 with a 3.37 ERA (second in ERA among Boston starters to Daisuke Matsuzaka).

e has more than justified Theo Epstein's faith in him (remember, he was so untouchable that he wasn't even on the table when the Red Sox were seeking Alex Rodriguez from Texas) and now looks like he could settle in as a very reliable No. 2 starter, and perhaps even an ace.

His biggest issue still remains control, though his walks per innings pitched are trending down, and his strikeouts per walks are moving up. Just 24-years old, he won't become a free agent until after 2012.

Daisuke Matsuzaka doesn't seem like the kind of guy who should have ended up in Boston. Not when getting his services came down to a bidding war for the right just to negotiate with the most feared agent in the business.

Remember when the Yankees used to make the biggest hot-stove splashes? Over the past few years, Brian Cashman has stood on the sidelines while his fiercest rivals stole the winter headlines.

Omar Minaya of the Mets grabbed Pedro Martinez (the best pitcher of his generation), Carlos Beltran (the best center fielder in the game), and most recently completed a trade for Johan Santana (only the best pitcher in baseball) this past offseason.

Theo traded for Josh Beckett (who shut down the Yankees in their own house as a 23-year old in the 2003 World Series) in 2006, getting 2007 World Series MVP Mike Lowell at the same time, and outbid Cashman for the biggest Japanese free agent to hit the market in years. Unbelievable. Who could have seen this coming?

Matsuzaka began pitching in the Japanese Pacific League for the Seibu Lions at age 18. The information that initially surfaced about him in the U.S. took on almost a mystical quality.

He became known for his incredible pitch counts (250 in 17-straight innings once), for striking out Ichiro Suzuki three times in one game, and for the legendary gyroball, which he may or may not actually throw.

Of course, all the Red Sox cared about was whether he could be an effective starter, and all they needed to know to be sure of effectiveness was that he had not finished with an ERA above three for Seibu since the 2002 season. Outbidding the Rangers, Mets, and, you guessed it, the Yankees, for the right negotiate with Daisuke, and uber-agent Scott Boras, they signed Matsuzaka to an incentive-laden, six-year, $52 million contract.

Year one of the Dice-K era was short on gyroballs, and even shorter on sub-three ERAs. A recurring theme, it was suggested that the Red Sox messed with a good thing by tinkering with Matsuzaka's mechanics and limiting his repertoire. Still, with a 4.40 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and 15 wins, it was a more than adequate rookie season.

Year two has gone even better, as Daisuke is currently sporting a 2.82 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and 16-2 record. While control has been a bit of an issue at times, the fact that batters have trouble making solid contact with Matsuzaka's offerings helps limit the damage done by his free passes.

His strikeout rate has been improving and his walk rate dropping as of late, which portends well for the future. Signed through 2012, he will easily justify what the Red Sox spent on his contract, posting fee and all, if he keeps this act up.

Tim Wakefield must be a good guy. There's no other explanation for his decision to sign a contract that basically allows the Boston front office to have complete control over how long he plays. He must actually feel loyalty to the team he plays for, and for that reason, he signed a contract that gives the Red Sox a recurring team option for his services at a fixed rate of $4 million.

Look, I know that making that kind of money to play a sport you love is a pretty sweet deal. I don't for a moment feel bad for anyone in that position. But, in the context of athlete behavior, Wakefield looks downright selfless.

It is for that reason, and also because I don't want the art of the knuckleball (which adds special character to the games he pitches) to be lost, that I hope that Wakefield's contract will be renewed for many years.

And as long as he puts up a 3.76 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, chances are he'll remain with the team. That kind of performance is worth many times Wakefield's going rate, and the value of his steady contribution and ability to absorb innings in a variety of circumstances (see his bullpen-saving act in Game Three of the 2004 ALCS) should not be underestimated.

Still, there are signs of him slowing down. He hit the shelf due to shoulder woes late in the season and again this year, like in 2007 (though he already came back against the Yankees last week, helping the Sox win a crucial series in their last trip to the original Yankee Stadium), and he hasn't cleared the 200-inning mark in a season since 2005.

More to the point, there's a lot of pitching talent in Boston. At some point, guys like Masterson and Bowden are going to need a rotation spot, and Wakefield's consistency may no longer be there.

He may be kept on as a bullpen arm and spot starter even (after all, that's about what $4 million buys these days). But when the time comes to say goodbye, I'll miss his familiar face and the flutter of his knuckler.

Josh Beckett is a hard guy to figure out. Throughout his career, he has shown unquestionable talent. And he has certainly picked the right moments to shine. But there always seems to be something holding him back from being the ace you think he is.

In Florida it was the blisters that kept him from ever topping 180-innings pitched in a season. In 2006, his first season with the Red Sox, he was healthy, but his crashing strikeout rate and an ERA that ballooned above five still held him back.

Then, in 2007, he seemed to finally put it all together, winning 20 games with stellar peripherals (3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) and finishing runner-up in the Cy Young race. Now the maddening question is, at 11-9 with a 4.34 ERA, why he isn't the same pitcher he was last year.

A closer look at the numbers suggests that he is basically the same pitcher he was last year.

First, let's disregard the most recent start he made before going on the disabled list. He was clearly pitching hurt, and giving up right earned runs in two innings can really skew the numbers.

Before that dreadful showing against the Blue Jays, Beckett had an ERA of 3.92, a WHIP of 1.18, and was striking out more or less a batter per inning. His mediocre record was due in part to lack of run support, as Beckett took losses or no-decisions in six games in which he allowed one or two runs in six-plus innings of work.

In essence, he was the unlucky version of the same guy, right down to the peripherals.

That being said, he was atrocious in his last start, due to injury, and any ailment that requires a consult with Dr. James Andrews can't be good. According to the team, he got a clean bill of health and will be ready to start this Friday. Color me skeptical.

At the very least, Beckett should be a solid bet to be the staff ace in 2009 and 2010 (assuming the Sox pick up his relatively cheap option for $10 million), at which point his current deal expires.

His health in 2009 will likely determine how aggressive Theo and company will be in working out a contract extension. Despite all of the issues, is there another guy you'd want to have starting Game Seven of the World Series for you?

Should Beckett not return after 2010, both Justin Masterson and Michael Bowden are quality arms that could step into the rotation. Masterson was called up to patch up the injured rotation several times, and he put up very good numbers as a rookie starter (3.67 ERA, 1.26 WHIP).

He has one of the best sinkers in the majors, and he throws a very good slider, but his future in the rotation depends on the development of his third pitch, the change-up. The Sox shunted him to the bullpen, both to help form a late-innings bridge to Papelbon, and to keep his innings totals in check as he builds up his stamina.

If he never develops an adequate third pitch, he would still be an asset as a dominant reliever.

Michael Bowden made his first major-league start this week, as Boston continues to reel from a very injury-prone 2008 rotation (Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, and Wakefield have all spent time on the DL this year).

Though no one will complain when a rookie gets a win in his first start, Bowden was pretty lucky to only give up a pair of runs in five innings while allowing opposing hitters to bat .333 against him. To his credit, Bowden gave up no homers, walked only one batter, and induced two twin-killings, all helping him limit the number of runs he surrendered.

But on another day he might have easily given up a couple more runs and gotten knocked out of the game earlier with the way he was getting hit. To be fair, Bowden is still 21, and there's nothing to suggest he won't be able to be a middle-of-the-rotation starter, and perhaps even more dominating than that, as he hones his craft.

He has had excellent numbers at every level of the minors, including in Lancaster's offense-happy environment, and holds a career minor league ERA of 3.14 and WHIP of 1.15. He needs to develop a bit more in AAA Pawtucket, but he could be ready to contribute regularly by mid-2009.

Future Relief

The bullpen is a fluid place, born of necessity, supply and demand, and hope. Few prospects start out pegged as relievers, and those that do start out that way have little in the way of a back-up plan (see Hansen, Craig).

Thus, it is hard to predict who could be filling out the Red Sox's bullpen in coming years. But just for kicks, let's take a look at some of the contenders.

As mentioned above, Masterson should make a formidable reliever if he doesn't work out in the rotation (a 1.76 ERA since joining the 'pen this year supports that notion). He has already contributed this year, patching up a somewhat troubled 'pen, and finally being used in higher-leverage situations lately.

He picked up the win yesterday, keeping Boston close in the game long enough for the team to come from behind. On Aug. 26, he was brought in to face Alex Rodriguez with the bases loaded in a critical game against Boston's biggest rival (unbelievably, that rivalry could actually get surpassed on the occasion of another Red Sox-Rays brawl in combination with a photo-finish for the AL East championship between Tampa and Boston).

Down on the farm, Daniel Bard has already played out the familiar scenario of a failed starter becoming a crack bullpen arm, putting up an ERA of 10.75 as a starter in High-A Lancaster before being converted to a reliever in the Arizona Fall League.

He finished this season with a 1.99 ERA in roughly 50 innings at AA Portland, after posting a 0.64 ERA in 28 innings at Low-A Greenville (striking out 1.5 batters per inning there). With the ability to consistently hit 98 on the radar gun with his fastball (topping out at 101), and three different secondary offerings, he has the stuff to succeed in the 'pen.

He needs to master AAA before we know for sure what he'll become, but if all goes well, he could be ready to contribute by 2010.

Hunter Jones is a lefty, but you wouldn't know it. He has an unconventional reverse split, mowing down righties while being taken behind the shed by his same-handed brethren.

This is not an entirely bad thing (since there are more righty batters than southpaws), as long as his manager remembers the fact and does not try to employ him as a specialist.

In fact, one of Jones's pluses is that he is well-suited for multiple-inning work. He is not a hard thrower, but his great command and deceptive delivery make up for the lack of blazing velocity.

Fans could be seeing him in Fenway as early as early 2009, as he has little to prove in AAA after striking out a batter per inning for Pawtucket.

Bullpen Stars

In a word, unhittable. That's how you would describe the performance Boston's trio of high-leverage relievers in 2007. Manny Delcarmen (2.05 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), Hideki Okajima (2.22, 0.97), and Jonathan Papelbon (1.85, 0.77) combined for over 180 dominant innings, and made Red Sox fans comfortable about getting a win anytime the team was leading after the seventh inning.

While Papelbon has been dishing out more of the same in 2008 (1.68, 0.85), Delcarmen and Okajima have taken steps backward, and no one else has stepped up to claim the role of dominant set-up man.

On the surface, Hideki Okajima's numbers don't look all that different from the ones he posted during his 2007 All-Star campaign. A reliever with an ERA of 2.83 is usually considered a success, and Okajima's 3-2 record doesn't suggest a guy who's coughed up a lot of leads.

But Okajima has a problem his stats don't reveal: He has had trouble keeping inherited runners from scoring, allowing 13 of 22 inherited runners to come across the plate, including 10 during a brutal stretch from Apr. 24 to May 14.

These struggles have led to a combination of eight blown saves and leads, and have kept manager Terry Francona from feeling comfortable about bringing Okajima in with runners on, forcing him to rely on lesser talents in such situations.

Considering Okajima's brutal June numbers (9.64 ERA, 2.57 WHIP), his 2008 season has been a disappointment for the Red Sox. On the positive side, Okajima has had a WHIP below 1.07 in every month besides June and an ERA of 2.87 and WHIP of 0.83 since the All Star break.

He has stranded six out of seven runners in July and August, and he seems to have returned to his dominant 2007 form in the past couple of months. The Red Sox hope so, as he has eclipsed the 115 appearances mark for 2007 and 2008 combined, thereby kicking in a 2009 option on his contract at $1.75 million.

If he continues to pitch at his post-Independence-Day level, it will be a bargain. Only time will tell whether he'll pitch well enough to be in a Red Sox uniform beyond next year.

Hometown favorite Manny Delcarmen seemed on his way to establishing himself as a bullpen ace after his breakout 2007 campaign (2.05 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, whiling striking out nearly a batter per inning).

Batters have found him to be much more hittable in 2008 though (.222 batting average against, versus .183 in 2007), and consequently his ERA has risen (currently at 3.90), despite maintaining his strikeout and walk rates and cutting his home-run rate.

Much of the issues can be chalked up to poor April and May appearances, as his numbers have greatly improved over the course of the season (2.66 ERA, 1.08 WHIP since the All Star break).

The Red Sox would be happy enough to see him settle in as a dependable set-up man, even if he never approaches his dominant 2007 line again. But, armed with a high-90s fastball and a top-notch curve, and under Boston's control until 2012, Delcarmen could be the eighth-inning bridge to Papelbon for years to come.

It is fitting that this article, and indeed the whole series of articles, should end with Jonathan Papelbon? But what can be written about him that hasn't been already said?

He went from a solid front-of-the-rotation prospect to a nearly invincible shut-down closer in what seemed like the blink of an eye, and he hasn't looked back since.

Not one of his first three full seasons has been less than dominant. His highest ERA? 1.85 (2007). His highest WHIP? 0.85 (2008). In all likelihood, he'll set career highs for saves and innings pitched this year, and he's cut his walk rate in half (he's walked a mere seven batters so far).

But the most telling thing is how he makes Red Sox fans feel: secure. An almost unheard-of feeling in Boston's ninth-inning history. When Papelbon purses his lips into an "O", staring intently at the batter, you believe he's going to shut the door.

And he usually does.

Red Sox fans hope that he'll continue to give them that security though 2011, when he hits free agency. If there's one guy Theo Epstein would like to extend before he can test the market, it might be Paps.

Check out Part One and Part Two of this series, devoted to Boston's infielders and outfielders respectively.

Red Sox Roster Review Part I: The Infielders

Andrew Tirrell — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 16:24:10 -0400

In 2008, for the first time in several years, the Red Sox underwent little roster turnover to begin the season. Almost every face on Boston's opening day roster was familiar, a stability born of the increasing numbers of Red Sox players under the team's long-term control. Will this trend continue in the years to come? This piece begins a series of articles (check out Part Two and Part Three of this series as well) that will examine the Red Sox roster position by position, and predict the team's composition in 2009 and beyond. The first article will study Boston's infield.

Catcher

One of the few major decisions the Red Sox will face this off-season is what to do at the catcher position. Jason Varitek is having his worst season as a pro, batting .223/.315/.370, and at the age of 36 many wonder if he'll ever wield an all-star caliber bat again. A month-by-month look at his numbers, however, reveals a more complicated story. Tek started off the season in fine form, with an OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) of .809, and a sizzling May line of .299/.407/.506. (.913 OPS). As hot as he was in May, though, he was just as cold in June and July, failing to eclipse the .200 mark in batting average, and the .300 mark in either on base or slugging percentage in either of those months. Now, in August, Varitek is seemingly warming up again, batting 9 for 23 (.391), with three dingers over the past week. With his four year $40 million contract running out at the end of 2008, it's decision time in Boston.

There are no obvious internal replacements, as backup catcher Kevin Cash has been even worse at the plate than Varitek, and his skill at catching Tim Wakefield's knuckleball is one of his few assets. The Sox also recently claimed David Ross, who batted .255/.352/.579 in 2006, off of waivers from Cincinnati, and the team holds a 3.5 million dollar 2009 option on his contract. Despite flashes of considerable power over his career, his poor 2007 and 2008 numbers, career back-up status, and advanced age would make him a risky choice to start.

Down on the farm, Triple-A backstops George Kottaras and Dusty Brown have flashed some ability in Pawtucket this year. Kottaras, age 25, has shown decent plate discipline (.341 obp), and good power (22 hr), but has struggled to make consistent contact at the plate (.241 avg), and could be over-matched by major league pitching. Brown, age 26, has had a very strong 2008 season (.286/.377/.470), but has never approached these kinds of numbers during his minor league career, and projects more as a back-up.

The free agent market for catchers this year is equally barren, with Pudge Rodriguez (batting .214/.250/.310 since he joined the Yankees) leading a fairly anemic class. In fact, many assumed at the beginning of the season that Varitek would be among the most desirable free agents at the position this winter. Johnny Estrada (.170/.200/.170 in limited action) and Rod Barajas (.255/.305/.419) are two other passable free agent choices, but I doubt anyone in Boston's front office see either of those two as a top candidate.

Beyond the relative slim pickings internally and externally, there are many other reasons for the Sox to retain Varitek. From a public relations standpoint, Tek is one of the faces of the franchise, captain of the team since 2004, and one of the few remnants from both the 2004 and 2007 championship squads. Moreover, Varitek is by all accounts an excellent game-caller, has called 4 separate no-hitters, and was a strike away from his fifth when Curt Schilling shook of his call and gave up the only hit of that game. There is no exact science to attributing a pitcher's success to his battery-mate's skill, but few doubt that there is some relationship, and Varitek would bring value there even if he continued to decline with the bat. This is an especially important factor because of Boston's young pitching staff, as Varitek has already shepherded Bucholz and Lester through their own no-hitters, and has helped Masterson ease into the majors with excellent numbers.

Bottom Line

As a best-case scenario, if Red Sox GM Theo Epstein can get Varitek to agree to a reasonable one year deal ($8-10 million), perhaps with a team option for 2010, I think he'd prefer to keep Varitek in Boston and hope for the best offensively while Tek continues to work with the young stable of Red Sox pitchers. At the same time, either Kottaras or Brown could be pegged to back up Tek, and perhaps even allow him to be rested more often than he has been accustomed to (you have to wonder if Varitek's struggles can be partially attributed to a need for more days off). But if Varitek is seeking a longer deal, then the Sox may opt to pass on re-signing him and hand the reigns over to one of their young AAA backstops while bringing in a cheap veteran (perhaps Ross) as insurance.

Future

Luis Exposito, age 21, began the year at the Red Sox's Low-A affiliate Greenville and batted .283/.328/.508 in 200+ plate appearances. Since being promoted to High-A Lancaster, with its hitter-friendly park, Exposito has pounded the ball at a .311/.342/.534 rate. Even more encouragingly, he has fared better at opponents' fields (.354/.381/.677) than at home, buoying optimism that his stellar second half is as much skill as it is park effect. Luis still needs to develop plate discipline, as he has walked only 20 times in about 400 plate appearances this year, but scouts see 25 HR power and exceptional defensive and game-calling skills in him. Assuming his development is a success, he could be the answer to Boston's catching needs by mid-2010.

First Base

Kevin Youkilis has been a revelation this year. At .319/.385/.572 he has gone from a reliable hitter with stellar on-base skills and gold-glove defense, to a down-ballot MVP candidate. All it took was power- on pace for about 30 dingers this year, he has increased his slugging by 120 points over his career best, while at the same time maintaining his plate discipline, and hitting for better average. Boston controls Youkilis through the 2010 season, but he is set to hit pay-dirt through arbitration this winter. Many Red Sox fans who hope that Youk will be extended beyond his arbitration years think of him as one of the "young guys". But by the time he hits free agency he actually will be entering his age-32 season (he was 26 before he was called up for good in 2005). With top prospect Lars Anderson (age 20) mashing in Double-A Portland this season (.309/.412/.545), the front office may prefer to not commit to Youkilis into his mid-thirties, and might just thank him for contributing to (at least) two championship teams during his time in Boston.

Bottom Line

Youkilis will be manning first in Fenway at least through 2010, but is likely to be gone by 2011 unless a short term extension is worked out before free agency. Lars Anderson is the heir apparent, and should be ready for the majors by mid-2010, if not sooner.

Future

The aforementioned Mr. Anderson is a beast (6-4, 210 lbs.), but is reputably very athletic for his size, and is an adept fielder. Scouts hope he will be even more aggressive at the plate and turn some walks into extra-base hits. He has put up extraordinary numbers at every level, especially given his age, and has the potential to be an All-Star caliber player.

Second Base

How do you top an unexpected Rookie of the Year campaign? By batting .318/.363/.479 at an up-the-middle position, pacing yourself to double your home run and stolen base output, starting the All-Star game, and doing all this just as you're turning 25. If Pedroia can keep this up (or, dare we say, even improve) Boston will be set at second base for the next four years or so. There's a reason that none of Boston's high level prospects are being groomed as second basemen. Proving all of his detractors wrong, Pedroia has parlayed his 5'9" frame and little-leaguesque swing into becoming one of Boston's stars and a fan-favorite at Fenway.

Bottom Line

As long as Dusty's healthy and able to perform at this level, the Red Sox are set for the foreseeable future. Once he hits his arbitration years after next season the Sox may talk about trying to extend his contract past 2012, his age 28 season.

Future

Yamaico Navarro, Boston's top middle infield prospect, can play second, but since there is a greater short-term need at shortstop, he has been playing there all year. Fresh from representing Taiwan in the Olympics, Navarro's teammate Chih Hsien Chiang is Boston's top pure second base prospect (.303/.337/.459). His home-road splits, however, suggest that much of his advancement this year has been park-aided, and that the twenty-year old is far from being ready to help at the major-league level. Given his lack of truly strong numbers at any level of the organization, he's no sure bet to make it as a pro, but we'll know much more about him once he goes back to playing in a normal home park.

Shortstop

While it is commonly held that the 2004 trade of Nomar Garciaparra helped to propel the Red Sox to their 2004 World Series title, the one sure result of Nomar's departure is that Boston has lacked a consistent presence at shortstop ever since. Julio Lugo has been the latest installment in the shortstop carousel, and he has been the worst of the lot (seriously, who thought Edgar Renteria's deal could ever be topped when it comes to wasted money). Punchless and error prone this year, Lugo's speed has been his only real contribution, and at 9 million bucks a year, it hardly seems like a fair deal.

Because of this uninspiring production, the Red Sox have undergone addition by subtraction since losing Lugo to the disabled list and replacing him with former high-level prospect Jed Lowrie (Lugo has recently suffered a setback in his recovery, and may not return at all in 2008). Many wondered whether Lowrie could handle the position defensively, but so far he's been error free, and his bat has been a real plus for the lineup. Overall Lowrie has batted .299/.364/.474, and in August he has turned it up a notch or two, batting .329/.402/.579, and has helped Boston cushion the loss of Mike Lowell's stick (he hit a go-ahead, 11th inning home run in today's game). His power has come mostly in the form of doubles so far (he has only two major league home runs in 154 ab), but, at age 24, he has time to turn some of those 15 doubles (on pace for 60+ in a full season) into bombs.

Given the many middle infield prospects in the minor league system, and the lack of high-level ones at third base, it is likely that Lowrie may eventually slide over to third base to replace Lowell. He has spent about a third of his time there this season, and has shown excellent defense at the position. He should also have a sufficient bat for the switch, especially in his peak years.

Bottom Line

A rookie, Lowrie will be under Boston's control until the 2013 season. There seems to be little threat that Lugo will retake the job at any point in 2009 unless Lowrie begins to struggle badly. Lowrie should be able to hold on to the starting job through 2010, at which point he may be moved over to third base to replace an aging Lowell. Yamaico Navarro is the top internal candidate to replace Lowrie at SS, and could be ready to join the Red Sox by 2011.

Future

Signed as a seventeen year old in the Dominican Republic, Navarro has shown a lot of pop for a teenager in the past two years. He followed up his 2006 Dominican Summer League line of .282/.344/.441 with an equally impressive .289/.357/.409 showing as a 19 year-old at Single-A Lowell last season. This season he's continued to impress, batting .280/.341/.412 at Greenville in the Sally League, before moving to Lancaster where he's put up a park-aided .342/.394/.493. Navarro could be in Double A to start next year, or he might be sent to the Red Sox's new 2009 High A affiliate, Salem of the Carolina League, to see if he can put up such excellent numbers in a place that's not a cross between Coors Field and the moon.

Third Base

Whether it was "Re-sign Lowell", or "Don't sign A-Rod", Red Sox fans chanted their preferences during the final game of the 2007 World Series. Be careful what you wish for. Lowell hasn't had an awful season when he's been healthy (.270/.335/.446, reminiscent of his 2006 numbers). It's just that he hasn't been healthy that often. He's played in 101 games this season, and it looks like he'll be back for the September stretch, but the combination of regression to the mean, absence from the lineup, and playing hurt can't be what the Boston front office was hoping for when they signed him to a three-year deal last winter.

Who can blame the Red Sox for taking a shot on Lowell though? The free agent market for third base was pretty thin last year (apart from ARod, they were looking at a choice between Michael Lamb and Pedro Feliz), and it only gets worse this off-season, when Joe Crede, Morgan Ensberg, Corey Koskie, and Greg Norton will be the options. Nor is there an internal option on the horizon, as the only viable third base prospects in the Red Sox system (Michael Almanzar, age 17, and Will Middlebrooks, age 19) are several years away.

So the Red Sox will pin their hopes on Lowell, who still has a decent bat and an excellent glove, but who hasn't been able to stay healthy and will probably never approach his 2007 numbers (.324/.378/.501) in his career again. The Sox do have versatility- should Lowell falter or get injured again Youkilis can always slide across the diamond and let Sean Casey take over at first, or Lowrie can move over one position and let Cora cover shortstop. Hopefully such shuffling won't be necessary going forward, but Theo has done a good job ensuring depth, just in case.

Bottom Line

While third base may no longer be a position of strength for the Red Sox, Lowell will man it adequately, while healthy, until his contract expires in 2010. From that point forward Lowrie might well take over for him, making room for one of the many Red Sox middle infield prospects at shortstop. Alternatively, an external solution could be sought through free agency.

Future

Michael Almanzar is the top prospect at third base for Boston. After raking in the Rookie League to the tune of .348/.417/.472 (phenomenal for a seventeen year old), he has struggled since his promotion to the Sally League. Scouts see star potential in him, but he is so extremely raw at this point it is impossible to truly gauge his abilities. If all goes extremely well he'll be ready to contribute in the majors by mid-2012.

Will Middlebrooks is considered by many to be the top talent taken by the Red Sox in the 2007 draft. He destroyed high school pitching to the tune of .555/.664/.927 (1.592 OPS!), but hasn't yet hit Single-A pitchers well in his time at Lowell. He could also be ready by 2012. It will be interesting to see these two talents develop alongside one another.

Check out Part Two of this series, which reviews the future of the Red Sox outfield and DH positions.