Bleacher Report - Articles by Nick The Only

Why The Non-BCS Teams Don't Deserve a Chance Under The Current BCS

Nick The Only — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 13:00:06 -0500

Lately, there has been a lot of clamor from the non-BCS (or non-AQ) teams and their fans for consideration as title-contenders. Under the current BCS system, there are only two teams each year that gain the privilege of playing for a BCS national title.

The most commonly cited argument in support of the inclusion of non-AQ teams is that they have shown they can beat the big boys. Boise State fans point to their opening win over Pac 10-title-contender Oregon. TCU fans will argue that they beat Virginia and Clemson on the road.

While these wins are commendable—and certainly show that BSU and TCU can compete with BCS conference teams once or twice per season—they do not equate to BSU and TCU being worthy national title contenders.

To see why BSU and TCU (and the like, such as Utah last year) don't deserve one of the coveted BCS title game spots, look no further than the rest of their schedules.

After Oregon, the rest of BSU's schedule is Miami (OH), Fresno State, Bowling Green, UC Davis, Tulsa, Hawaii, San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, Idaho, Utah State, Nevada, and New Mexico State.

Besides Virginia and Clemson, TCU's remaining schedule is Texas State, Southern Methodist, Air Force, Colorado State, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico.

While the rest of TCU's schedule is more difficult than the rest of BSU's schedule, there is a common theme to both. The majority of both of their schedules are teams that are considered cupcake opponents for BCS teams.

When Texas played Wyoming, they were chided for scheduling a cupcake opponent. For TCU, Wyoming is just another conference opponent. The same rationale applies to the majority of these non-AQ teams schedules.

Suppose that BSU or TCU were fortunate enough to schedule three or four out of conference games against BCS opponents. If them won them all, would they have a tough enough schedule to get a BCS title game spot?

The answer is still "no." Even if they played and beat a several BCS opponents, they would still go untested in their remaining eight or nine games.

Schools like Alabama, Florida and Texas play at least eight games against BCS conference competition (and at least nine if you consider their conference title games, which will always be required for a title run).

Thus, in any given season, a BCS conference team will play at least twice as many big time opponents as the BSUs and TCUs of the world.

For a team like BSU, the Oregon game was their season. After BSU won that game, they haven't faced an opponent even half as good.

For every Pac 10 team, Oregon is just another conference opponent. And for Oregon, BSU was just another team on their schedule. After the BSU game, Oregon has played many teams that are just as good or better than BSU.

Under the current system, it is just not fair to to the BCS-league teams to allow a team like BSU or Oregon a title spot when they play a schedule that BCS teams would be laughed at for playing.

The criticism that Florida and Texas have received this year for their weaker than usual OOC schedules is ironic in this context because their OOC's stack up favorably to BSU and TCU's conference schedules.

The soundness of my argument is evidenced by the terminology used by fans and the media. For example, when USC plays San Jose State, they are considered a "cupcake" opponent. When BSU's plays them, they are considered another conference test.

Also consider how much more taxing it is to play teams like Oregon, Virginia, and Clemson almost every week than it is once or twice a season. The mental stress of being on your A-game all the time, combined with the physical toll of getting hit by bigger and faster athletes, is something TCU and BSU just don't have to deal with.

Simply put, BSU and TCU (and their ilk) are victims of circumstance.

When your conference schedule is filled with opponents that the powerhouses are criticized for playing, you simply don't deserve consideration as one of the two best teams in the land.

In defense of BSU and TCU, I think both would be worthy of a spot this year if we had an eight-team playoff. Both teams look good in most of their games, and three straight BCS playoff wins would legitimize them much more than any BCS bowl win.

However, in a two-team scenario, they cannot stack up.

Florida Football, By The Numbers

Nick The Only — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 00:54:15 -0400

Just a list of Florida's strengths, statistically speaking. At the end, I add a few of my thoughts on the stats and some interesting differences from last year.

All rankings are national (only FBS), and therefore the ranking number is out of 120 teams.

Number 1 in the AP and Coaches' Polls.

5-0 against a top-10 strength of schedule.

No. 2 in the county in rushing offense and yards per carry.

No. 6 in total offense.

No. 3 in offensive passing efficiency.

No. 6 in offensive first downs per game.

No. 2 in third down conversion percentage.

No. 11 in rush defense.

No. 1 in pass defense.

No. 1 in total defense and yards per play allowed.

No. 1 in scoring defense.

No. 1 in passing efficiency defense.

No. 2 in first downs allowed.

No. 5 in third down defense.

No. 4 in punt return defense.

Punted less than any other team.

No. 3 in kick returns.

No. 8 in kick return defense.

Obviously, Florida is a very complete team. They lead or are at the top of the rankings in almost every important defensive category, and their offense and special teams are top-10 in many important aspects.

The interesting thing about Florida is the punting return and turnovers-gained/turnover margin statistics. Last year, Florida was one of the top ranked punt return teams, and they were in the top two in turnover margin; but they are no where near the top-10 in either stat this year.

I think the decline in turnovers gained (and thus, turnover margin) is due to Florida's defense being better than last year. The defense is stopping the opposition quicker than last year (allowing four first downs less per game), resulting in fewer plays and fewer chances/need for turnovers.

The decline in punt return yardage is troubling, but is likely due to the propensity to go for punt blocks and/or teams kicking away from Brandon James.

Punt returns and turnover margin aside, the stats show that Florida is a very strong team.

Just Win: Florida Showed Championship Mettle In Win Over Vols

Nick The Only — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 18:56:49 -0400

Florida was favored to beat Tennessee by 28.5 points, but won by just ten. After a frustratingly "slow" game, some say there is cause for concern. Some are even saying Florida showed signs of weakness.

I don't think so. Although I predicted Florida to win by 39 points (45-6), I am still encouraged by Florida's 10 point victory.

How can this be? Because Florida showed a lot of patience and maturity. The Gators showed they can win a war of attrition.

For someone who basically promised a win in the Swamp with his "singing Rocky Top" comment, Lane Kiffin seemed more concerned with running game clock than scheming for victory. (For more on this see my comments in the accompanying poll.)

On offense, Tennessee decided to commit to a run game that was very effective at chewing clock, but not nearly effective enough to sustain TD drives. After its first drive, most of Tennessee's obvious run plays were stuffed by Florida's defense. In fact, Tennessee's best offensive plays were runs on typical passing downs (like third and long).

The Vols got some yards, but really had only one impressive drive (which was the first 16 play clock eater that resulted in a field goal). Other than that, Florida's defense played very solidly and gave up only one play of concern the rest of the game (the late TD run up the middle, which I doubt would have happened if Brandon Spikes was healthy and which came on a drive that was sustained by a ridiculous 15 yard taunting penalty).

On the other side of the ball, Tennessee's defense seemed to determined to limit the big play. The Vols tried Florida's patience by leaving two defensive backs deep for most of the game.

Tennessee's overall game plan didn't really stop Florida, it just cut their drive total drastically. Florida only had the ball eight times (the ninth ended in kneel downs), but Florida mostly had its way.

In fact, Florida only punted once, and that was in the fourth quarter. Florida scored on five of their first seven drives with the other two ending with turnovers.

Tim Tebow's interception to Eric Berry might seem like it a concern, but if you look at the play closely it was really just a great play by Berry on a pass that Tebow was probably hoping would hit the turf. Tennessee moved the ball only 17 yards after that interception, and settled for a field goal.

Florida's other turnover happened inside Tennessee's 10 yard line, after the Tennessee defender made a nice strip on Tebow while he was fighting past the first down marker. Again, this was more a result of the defender's great play than any specific error by Florida.

A few plays after the fumble return and the aforementioned ridiculous 15 yard penalty, Tennessee had good enough field position to punch in a running touchdown up the middle. This was Tennessee's best play of the game and it came with Florida's middle linebacker and best defender, Brandon Spikes, nursing an injury on the sideline.

Florida definitely left some points on the field, and also could have played a little stingier on defense. But when you look at the end result, Florida won the game by 10 points, while out-gaining Tennessee by over 100 yards on offense and winning the time of possession.

Florida ran for over 200 yards against a stout Tennessee defense. And Tennessee never really had a chance to win the game, as they never got possession of the ball in the second half with a chance to take the lead.

Tennessee was determined to keep it close by keeping it short and slow. Florida may not have blown it open like some fans would have liked, but I am impressed with Florida's patience in beating Tennessee at its own game.

Conference Report Cards: Week One

Nick The Only — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 12:33:15 -0400

Week One is almost done—except for an Ole Miss game today against an overmatched opponent and a couple of intra-conference tussles in the ACC (Miami-FSU) and Big East (Rutgers-Cincinatti) Labor Day.

Conference strength is always a hot topic, especially among the traditional "Big Six" conferences (i.e. automatic BCS qualifiers).

Now is a great time to see how the conferences acquitted themselves.

The following is a report card of each conference's performance in Week One (only inter-conference games are considered in reaching each conference's grade).

Winning all OOC games would earn a conference an "A." I will award a bonus of half a letter grade for each "big win" (i.e. win over a quality OOC opponent), and deduct half a letter grade for each OOC loss—except conferences will be penalized an entire letter grade for an inexplicable OOC loss.

I will also make some adjustments for close games that should have been won more easily. There is a subjective element in doing so, but I have to go by what I saw more than just wins and losses.

I note that my scoring system will result in easy A's for any conference that schedules easily, but be mindful that my system does punish inexplicable losses and rewards respectable wins. As Misthaufen may note, it is a subjective system with logical parameters and objectively verifiable results.

ACC - Grade F (Overall OCC record 4-6)

Ten of the ACC's 12 teams played OOC games, with six of them losing.

Some of those losses were expected (or at least explainable, given the quality of the opponent), and some were not.

Big wins: none.

Inexplicable losses: two.

Maryland losing to Cal was not bad, but the margin of victory was. Virginia Tech losing to Alabama was expected by many, but the fact that 'Bama outgained VT by a 3 to 1 margin in total yards, was not.

Duke and Virginia suffered inexplicable losses at the hands of Richmond and William and Mary, respectively. Add in the other four losses, and the ACC failed as a whole.

Big 10 - Grade B (Overall OCC record 10-1)

Every Big 10 team played an OOC game, with the conference finishing 10-1.

Minnesota needed overtime to beat a bad Syracuse team with a basketball player at QB, and Ohio State needed a "pick two" on a two-point conversion to beat a decent Navy team.

Even if I were inclined to consider Navy a quality OOC opponent, I am not giving OSU the extra half a letter grade for its win because the Buckeyes underperformed.

I am, however, deducting a full letter grade for Illinois's inexplicable loss to a rebuilding Missouri. The margin of victory for Mizzou, and the fact that the Illini are considered a Big 10 title contender, merits the full grade deduction.

The rest of the conference took care of business against weak opponents.

Big 12 - Grade A+ (Overall OOC record 10-1, assumed 11-1)

Colorado has not yet played but, assuming they win, this grade remains the same.

If they lose, deduct an entire letter grade.

Baylor, Mizzou, and Oklahoma State all had quality OOC wins, which adds a letter grade and a half to the score.

This increase has to be offset somewhat by OU's inexplicable loss to BYU.

Granted, BYU is no cupcake and Sam Bradford went down with an injury, but OU had a talent advantage at every position, and was not doing that well even with Bradford behind center.

Three half grade bumps minus a full grade deduction results in an A+ grade for the Big 12.

Big East - Grade A (Overall OOC record 5-1)

The Big East's only OOC stumble was Syracuse's overtime loss to Minnesota.

I cannot deduct points for this loss because the Orange were an underdog, and played the Gophers close.

The rest of the conference took care of business against a cupcake schedule, and earns an A on my grading scale.

Pac-10 - Grade B+ (Overall OOC record 6-2)

The Pac-10 had eight of its teams play OOC opponents, with six winning easily and one losing respectably to a good SEC team.

The other loss was to a quality non-AQ opponent (Boise State), but it was still inexplicable for so many reasons.

Oregon's loss to BSU was embarassing to the Ducks, the Pac-10 and college football.

For the "third best team in the Pac-10," the Ducks were appallingly unprepared (their offense alone lost the first half 2-0).

BSU had some first-game jitters too (missing several scoring opportunities early), but Oregon looked like they could have been beat by the other team from Idaho, the Vandals.

As bad as the loss was, LeGarrett Blount's post-game tirade was worse.

Chip Kelly's first good coaching move of 2009 was to suspend Blount for the season.

The Pac 10 gets a half a grade-point for Cal's win over Maryland, but loses an entire point for the Duck's headfirst dive into the smurf turf.

SEC - Grade A+ (Overall OOC record 10-1, assumed 11-1)

Seven SEC teams routed much lesser opponents, which is nothing more than par for the course.

Ole Miss hasn't played yet, and the four other teams played decent or good opponents.

Alabama exerted its dominance over VT and South Carolina shut down NC State. Each of these wins adds half a point to the SEC's score, but I am also deducting half a point for Georgia's loss to OKlahoma State.

I am tempted to deduct a half point for LSU's mere eight-point win over Washington, but Pac-10 fans tell me that the Huskies are a good team with Jake Locker healthy, and I saw the TV camera was shaking from the noise in that stadium.

LSU won in a tough environment against what looked like a bowl team (if Locker is healthy), so no points are deducted.

Unless Ole Miss loses today (Sunday), the SEC finishes Week One with an A+.

Roll Call: Gator Playmakers and Gamebreakers

Nick The Only — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 23:51:29 -0400

The loss of RB/WR Percy Harvin as an early entry to the NFL left the 2009 Gators with Tim Tebow, and mere mortals for playmakers. Without Harvin and WR Louis Murphy, Florida needs to replace 14 receiving touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns.

On the bright side, attrition of playmakers on defense was non-existent. The Gators have a lot of returning talent ready to step up, and this is a roll call of the top returning playmakers and gamebreakers on both sides of the ball.

Pass Catchers

Florida returns four receivers who had at least three touchdown catches last season. David Nelson and tight end Aaron Hernandez each had five touchdown catches, and Hernandez returns with the most receptions and yards.

Nelson is a big target who is finally showing his potential. Hernandez has great hands, deceptive speed, and is a load to take down in the open field. Both look to improve on their 2008 production.

Riley Cooper and Deonte Thompson both had three touchdowns, and with their speed they should be able to get more involved. Thompson also has the elusiveness to see some touches in the run game.

There are several highly rated recruits behind these four, but none as proven.

Ground Churners

Florida returns three 600+ yard ball carriers (Tebow included).

Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps, two of the fastest players in college football, each averaged 7.8 yards per carry—with Demps getting seven touchdowns, and Rainey tallying four.

Emmanuel Moody looks to improve on his 424 rushing yards, while maintaining his high yards per carry (7.2).

The electric Brandon James may also see some time in the backfield, but will still do most of his damage on special teams.

Rainey, Demps, and James will all get looks on screens and Percy-type plays.

Ballhawks and Other Big-Time Defenders

Florida returns nine players who intercepted a pass, with five players who had at least three interceptions.

Ahmad Black, who would not have started but for an injury to Dorian Monroe, led the way with seven picks, returning two for scores.

The other safety, Major Wright, grabbed four picks, and bruised many bodies.

Brandon Spikes contributed four interceptions (two for scores), along with several sacks and tackles for losses.

Rounding out the leading ballhawks are corners Joe Haden, and the freshman sensation of the 2008 season, Janoris Jenkins, with three interceptions each...along with backup safety Will Hill, with two picks.

Carlos Dunlap and Jermaine Cunningham each return as two of the best defensive ends in the country. They combined for 15.5 sacks, and several more tackles for losses. Cunningham displayed an impressive ability to strip the ball with three forced fumbles.

The returning defensive tackles combined for a few sacks while freeing up the ends, and with Omar Hunter healthy, the unit looks to be even more disruptive this year.

Despite their strong performance in 2008, the defensive line has a lot of room to improve, and should be one of the best units in the country.

Field Position Flippers

Brandon James is one of the keys to Florida consistently winning the field position battle, and he is always a threat to take it the end-zone. He was one of the leading punt returners in the nation, and had two returns for touchdowns.

He has been so consistent as a punt returner that Florida fans tend to overlook his mediocre (by his standards) kick returning last year.

The kick return team as a whole will have to work on springing James for some long returns.

The real gem of the special teams is the block units. Florida returns every player who blocked a kick (punt/FG) last year.

Carlos Dunlap blocked three kicks, Jeff Demps blocked two kicks, and Joe Haden, Ahmad Black and the rising sophomore end Willie Green each added a block.

Opposing coaches will be faced with a tough decision in 2009 in choosing whether to protect their punter from the block team, or sending coverage downfield to prevent James from doing what he does best.

Those are the Gators' skill position players and defenders who had a significant hand in Florida's 2008 BCS title, and repeat in 2009. Two or three unknown or unproven guys will probably step up to make big plays, but these are the guys who are sure to be the focus of opposing coaches' gameplans.

Stats Don't Lie: Tim Tebow Is a Better Downfield Passer Than Sam Bradford

Nick The Only — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 23:54:44 -0500

There is perception.

And there is reality.

The perception is that Sam Bradford is a do-it-all NFL prototype passer, while Tim Tebow is just a fullback who gets by as a college passer.

The reality is that Tebow, by every statistical measure, is a better downfield passer than Bradford. On passes of 15 yards of more, Tebow had a higher completion percentage, as well as more yards and touchdowns per attempt.

Tebow was better in the turnover department, too. Bradford was intercepted four times on 15-plus-yard passes to Tebow's one interception on similar throws. (Both had 15 "long" touchdown passes).

Bradford threw deep about one more time per game, which is not a lot considering he averaged around 10 more total attempts per game. While Bradford threw a lot more total passes than Tebow, he did not throw many more long passes than Tebow. In fact, Bradford only completed one more long pass than Tebow despite Bradford's 14 additional attempts (Bradford threw 160 more short passes than Tebow).

Relatively speaking, Tebow threw deep far more often than Bradford. Tebow went long on nearly a third of his passes. Bradford went long on around a fifth of his throws.

Nearly fifty percent (yes, 50 percent!) of Tebow's passing yards came on throws of 15 yards or more.

Some doubters may argue that Tebow benefits from speedy playmakers who turn five-yard slants into 50-yard gains. That is just perception. In reality, Bradford's receivers (especially his tight end, Jermaine Gresham) gain a larger percentage of their receiving yards after the catch than Tebow's receivers.

Bradford's receivers gained 54 percent of their yards after the catch. Florida's receivers gained only 42 percent of their yards after the catch.

Perception can be funny a thing. We all see Bradford lighting up scoreboards and throwing 30-to-50 times a game. We hear draft gurus praise Bradford as a top 10 pick because he makes "all the throws."

We see Tebow bulldozing linebackers so often that we forget that he throws pretty well, too. We hear draft experts claim that Tebow will be drafted as a utility player (fullback or tight end) rather than a quarterback.

Yet, when we look at reality, Tebow is a far better passer when it comes to throwing the deep ball. And don't NFL scouts love a quarterback who can effectively stretch the field?

Just some food for thought.

Florida and Oklahoma Streaking Into Title Game: Who Survives?

Nick The Only — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 14:17:21 -0500

Florida and Oklahoma meet in Miami on Jan. 8, 2009 to play for the BCS Title. It is appropriate (but not expected—see LSU last year, for example) that the Sooners and Gators enter the game as two of the hottest teams in the nation.

Since its October loss to Texas, Oklahoma has outscored its seven opponents 419-204 (winning by an average of 30.7 points).

Florida has been even more impressive. Since Florida's September loss to Ole Miss, the Gators have outscored their nine opponents 445-117 (winning by an average margin of 36.4 points)

Both of these teams have embarrassed top-ranked competition since their first loss. During its streak, Oklahoma played (game-time ranked) No. 16 Kansas, No. 2 Texas Tech, No. 12 Oklahoma State, and No. 20 Missouri. In its last nine games, Florida beat (game-time ranked) No. 4 LSU, No. 6 Georgia, No. 25 South Carolina, No. 20 Florida State, and No. 1 Alabama.

Which streak comes to an end on Jan. 8, and which one survives? I think Florida survives for one reason: Defense.

In its last nine games, Florida has allowed 21 points once. Oklahoma has allowed at least 21 points in each of its last seven games.

Florida 52, Oklahoma 31

The All-Important Statistic: Third Down Defense (A Florida Case Study)

Nick The Only — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 12:08:32 -0500

Early this year I wrote an article detailing my thoughts on the 2007 Florida Gators' defensive struggles. As I discussed in the article, solid third down defense is one of the most important aspects of a championship caliber team.

I wrote about last year's Florida team not only because I am a Gator fan, but also because I thought Florida's third down defense was their primary weakness last year.

While their defense was awful, the 2007 edition of the Florida Gators were still somewhat of an offensive juggernaut, leading the nation in third down conversion percentage while facing the fewest number of third downs. On the other hand, Florida's defense was near the bottom of the SEC in third down conversions.

The result was a 9-4 season that was viewed as disappointing by some, but should have been expected considering the nine new freshman and sophomore starters on the defense.

This year, Florida is demolishing opponents because improved third down defense has changed the Gators' fortunes.

Third down defense is so crucial because each third down stop forecloses one of the limited scoring opportunities that a team has in a 60-minute game, while simultaneously allowing the ball to go back to the opposition. A stop closes the door for your opponent while swinging it back open for you.

In other words, a third down stop is a "traditional turnover."

As the counterpart to third down defense, third down efficiency on offense is also vitally important. For all intents and purposes, third down is usually the only down that matters.

A defense can look great on first and second down and force a third and long, but all momentum gained by the defense immediately swings back to the opposing offense with a conversion. On the flip side, an offense can have a third and inches, but the offense gets nothing if the defense makes the third down stop.

A look at Florida's improvement in third down defense explains much of Florida's overall improvement from the 2007 season (finished 9-4) to the 2008 season (currently 7-1). Last year, Florida finished 75th in the nation by allowing 41.2 percent of opponents' third down conversions. Their defense yielded 25.5 points per game as a result.

This year, Florida sits at 22nd nationally in third down defense at 32.4 percent. The nearly 10 percent improvement in third down defense literally equates to two touchdowns less per game for the opposition, as Florida's defense is allowing only 11.6 ppg in 2008.

Florida's offense, meanwhile, remains near the top of the nation in scoring but has dropped considerably in efficiency (53.4 percent to 45.6 percent). How has Florida been able to maintain their scoring despite the drop in offensive efficiency?

The answer is simple: Florida now has more opportunities to score because of their excellent third down defense. With two to three more third down stops per game, Florida's offense gets two to three more opportunities to produce points.

The minor difference of getting one to two more stops per game can be the major difference in winning three or four more games. The 2008 Florida Gators are the illustration of the importance of third down defense, but a look at the leaders in third down stops reveals that the statistic is vitally important to all championship contenders.

The traditionally weak-on-defense Texas Tech (at 32.5 percent) is right behind Florida. The other undefeated BCS teams, Alabama and Penn State, are second and 12th in the nation at 25.2 and 30.4 percent. Oklahoma is 10th at 30 percent, and USC is fifth at 28 percent.

The one title contender who is missing from the top of the standings is Texas, who is 55th, allowing 37.7 percent of opponents' third downs to be converted.

Sorry, Longhorns fans. Based on the all-important third down defense statistic, Texas is not a strong contender. The rest of the championship contenders seem to have what it takes.

First Quarter Progress Report on My Preseason Predictions

Nick The Only — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 14:46:33 -0400

Prior to the start of the season, I published an article detailing my top 10 predictions for the 2008 season. Because roughly one quarter of the season is in the books, I've decided to do a quick progress report on these predictions.

Which predictions have already been disproven? Are any still feasible? And are any still probable?

Without further ado, I revisit the predictions:

"10. Georgia will not finish No. 1 in the country."

Well, this one looked promising after Week One, when USC leaped Georgia in the polls. Still, Georgia has looked solid at times (ask ASU) and could very well end the season at No. 1. Still, I'm sticking to my prediction.

Along with this prediction, I also stated that Georgia would finish 3rd in the SEC East. I am probably wrong on that one. Georgia looks like one of the top 2 teams in the SEC East along with Florida. An incredible run by Vandy could keep this one alive for me.

Interesting fact: Four teams in the SEC East are undefeated and Steve Spurrier's and Phillip Fulmer's teams are not among them.

"9. You will witness a historically close Heisman race and vote."

This one looks like it is still highly probable. Tim Tebow has done nothing to drop himself from consideration. He has 0 turnovers and is managing a very talented roster. Top QBs on top teams are always contenders.

Meanwhile, several Big XII quarterbacks (Chase Daniel, Sam Bradford among others) are on fire right now, several running backs have Heisman-level stats (Knowshon Moreno, Javon Ringer, Charles Scott, etc.), and even some receivers like Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree are still in it.

Interesting fact: Not only has Tim Tebow taken care of the ball better than most, his team, Florida, is the only team in the nation with ZERO turnovers.

"8. Pittsburgh will win the Big East."

This one is still very much a possibility, but not because Pittsburgh is playing like a conference champion. In fact, Pittsburgh has looked very unimpressive. The reason this one is still feasible is because the rest of the Big East is also unimpressive. At this point, USF looks like the strongest team and even the Bulls struggled to pull away from the doormat that is Florida International.

Interesting fact: The Big East is a combined 16-11 in non-conference play. If you subtract the two teams, USF and UConn, the other 6 teams are a combined 8-11.

"7. The new clock rules will result in exciting shootouts."

I think I was pretty much dead wrong on this one. Although there have been some shootouts, the net result of the clock rules has been a drastic shortening of the game. I witnessed several 8 and 9 minute drives this season. With less possessions, there is less scoring.

The good thing about the rules is that they are relatively fair and straight forward. There are less possessions, but there do not seem to be any exploitable glitches in the rules (such as purposely going offides on a kickoff to run out the clock).

Interesting fact: The new clock rules have shortened the game by about a dozen minutes while taking away nearly 10 plays per game.

"6. The new clock rules will lead to more penalties and turnovers."

It is still too early in the season to draw any conclusions on this prediction. There seems to be slightly more penalties, but I am not sure about the penalties. (hey BR—hire a stat guy!)

Overall, the clock rules reducing the number of snaps, so any statistical comparison from 2007 to 2008 will have to take that factor into account.

Interesting fact: Three of the four most penalized teams in the country (Florida, Georgia, and Texas Tech) are ranked in the top 10 nationally.

"5. Florida RB Brandon James will be such a threat as a punt returner that teams will stop kicking to him by season's end."

This one looks to be my most solid prediction yet. In three games, Brandon James has had two 70+ yard punt returns for touchdowns (first in the nation in punt return TDs). He also has several long kick off returns that have led to Gator scores.

The funny thing about the second part of this prediction is that Florida coach Urban Meyer has found a way to force teams to punt to James. Against Tennessee, the Gators lined up with two deep return men. Who was the other guy standing back there with James? None other than Percy Harvin.

Meyer is forcing opposing coaches to put the ball into the hands of either the best punt returner in the nation or the most electrifying ball carrier in the nation. Punting the ball out of bounds might be the most viable option when playing the Gators.

Interesting fact: Brandon James has played Tennessee three times and has ran a punt back for a touchdown in all three games. However, his punt return for a TD in 2007 was called back on a holding penalty.

"4. Ohio State will beat Southern Cal to quiet all the Big Ten haters."

I was dead wrong on this one. Ohio State, without their best offensive player (Beanie Wells), looked completely uninspired and overmatched. USC definitely looks like a title contender, but they may not have anyone who can challenge them enough to allow them to get better throughout the season.

Interesting fact: OSU gained more yards than USC in the first half of this game.

"3. OSU will go on to lose a Big Ten game."

This one is still very likely. OSU has already resorted to using Terrell Pryor full time. I don't doubt that Pryor gives the Buckeyes the best chance to win, but I do question whether Pryor will be up to the task week in and week out in the Big Ten. Making this prediction even more likely is that fact that Penn State has blown out every weakling that their AD has put on the schedule, which is more than OSU can say (see Ohio game, and even against Troy they struggled to pull away).

Interesting fact: The Big Ten has four undefeated teams and Michigan and Ohio State are not among them. In fact, two of the undefeated teams are Minnesota and Northwestern.

"2. Appalachian State QB Armanti Edwards will get manhandled by the LSU defense."

This was another prediction that was spot on. Edwards looked uncomfortable all day in this game. LSU held Edwards to less than 2 yards per carry and a 42% completion percentage.

Interesting fact: Appalachian State, the reigning FCS champion, is 1-2 after losing to James Madison.

"1. There will be FOUR one-loss teams vying for a BCS title berth."

This one has a great chance of happening. Another similar scenario could involved 4 undefeated teams. Right now, the most likely candidates are (1) USC; (2) Missouri or Oklahoma;, (3) Florida, Georgia, LSU, or Alabama; (4) Wake Forest; (5) USF and (6) BYU.

I am really hoping for a scenario where there are 4 or more "deserving" title contenders. If USC, the SEC champ, the Big XII champ and at least one other team all have identical records in the loss-column, then maybe the powers that be will finally realize the necessity of a playoff system.

Interesting fact: Eight of the top 10 teams are from the Big XII and the SEC (four each).

In sum:

I've made two predictions that were dead wrong (No.'s 4 and 7) and one prediction that has proven to be 100% true (No. 2). Prediction No. 10 looks like another one that I could be wrong on at least as far as predicting UGA to finish third in the SEC East. The rest are either still very probable or just too difficult to analyze at this point.

The Experience Equation: Florida Gators Face Many Green Gunslingers

Nick The Only — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 15:04:24 -0400

Recently, I've heard several commentators downplay the Florida Gators' early season success by pointing out that Florida has faced two teams with first-time starters at quarterback. While it is true that both Miami and Hawaii started green quarterbacks, that is no reason to think that the Gators' success will not continue.

The Gators defense is now grown up after a brutal 2007 SEC season when it featured nine (9) new starters. What's more is the 2008 Gators have the luxury of facing an incredibly inexperienced and unproven group of quarterbacks.

In 2007, Chad Henne and Matt Stafford, among other veteran quarterbacks, picked Florida's young secondary apart. The defensive line did not help the cause with young defensive tackles failing to get consistent pressure on the quarterback. The young defense, consisting of mostly freshmen and sophomores, was almost always facing a more experienced passer.

In 2008, the Gators stand on the other side of the experience equation. The now-experienced defense has shown great improvement in its first two games and the Florida schedule is filled with first-year quarterbacks.

An overview of the Gators' schedule reveals that the only veteran quarterbacks that Florida will face are Matt Stafford (Georgia), Chris Nickson (Vanderbilt), and Casey Dick (Arkansas). Because Dick has been a mediocre (at best) quarterback and Nickson has a lot to prove as a passer, Stafford is the only proven threat to the Gators' secondary.

Hawaii had a new quarterback who didn't score (his backup did manage 10 points against the second- and third-team defense). Miami played two new quarterbacks and tallied three points.

Tennessee has a new quarterback. Ole Miss has new passer in Jevon Snead, who has looked impressive, but will still give up the experience advantage to Florida's defense.

Arkansas has the experienced by the unimpressive Dick. LSU will feature a rookie quarterback no matter which one starts. Kentucky is another team with a new passer.

Seeing a trend here? Until Florida plays Georgia, the defense clearly outmatches the opposing quarterbacks.

After Georgia, it's Vanderbilt with the althletic, but undaunting-through-the-air Chris Nickson. If Florida's defense can stop Stafford, then Nickson will struggle mightily in the passing game.

South Carolina will have either a rookie quarterback who is good for several interceptions or a more experienced one who is also good for several interceptions.

The Citadel barely merits comment, but I've read a scouting report that says they have a passer who started a couple of games in 2007. The Gators defense will have the experience (and every other) advantage in this one.

Last is FSU and their new passer, Christian Ponder (Drew Weatherford is now third on the depth chart).

With so many new quarterbacks on the schedule, Florida's defense will have the experience edge in every game except for the contests against against Georgia, Vandy, and Arkansas.

Even with experienced quarterbacks, Vandy and Arkansas will not have the talent to beat Florida if the Gators play well. That leaves Georgia as the only real threat to the Gators pass defense, which is appropriate considering Stafford's breakout game came against Florida.

If the Gators can build on the confidence that they'll likely gain from beating up on inexperienced quarterbacks, then Stafford will be facing a completely different animal than he saw in 2007.

In any event, the schedule stacks up nicely for the Florida Gators to further improve on their weaknesses from 2007 before their potentially epic matchup with the Bulldogs in Jacksonville.

Piece of (Cup)cake: Predicting Week One of the College Football Season

Nick The Only — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 15:01:54 -0400

Finally, Week One of the 2008 NCAA football season is upon us. We're all thoroughly excited for another crazy year like 2007 (especially LSU fans).

With the season so close, it is only natural that I make my picks for the first week of action. To limit myself (and the length of this article), I am only picking games involving at least one top 15 team (does anyone else even matter?). Luckily, this should be an easy job, because, well, most top teams scheduled easy opponents in the first week. Yep, predicting these cupcakes should be a piece of cake.

To make it slightly more difficult (and interesting), I am going to pick one "are-you-crazy/out-on-a-limb/it-will-never-happen" upset.

Without further ado, here are the picks (home team in CAPS):

No. 1 GEORGIA vs. Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern finished a respectable 7-4 last year, but only returns three starters on offense (eight on defense). Southern's biggest win last year was against none other than the Wolverine-slayers, Appalachian State.

Still, they just don't have the talent to beat Georgia, which wins easily: 49-10, Georgia.

No. 2 OHIO STATE vs. Youngstown State

Tressel versus his former team, again. This is a home-and-home series, both homes being Ohio State's Horseshoe.

Youngstown State loses by an even bigger margin this year: 42-7, OSU.

No. 3 Southern Cal vs. VIRGINIA

USC attempts to schedule a respectable opponent, but gets Virginia instead (just kidding, they were 9-3 last year). At least the Trojans travel a few thousand miles to play this one. It would be a long ride home if they lost.

Heck, it'll be a long ride across the continent, anyway, but they won't lose: USC, 28-10.

No. 4 OKLAHOMA vs. Chattanooga

Chattawho? OK, it is not OK to schedule a 2-9 Division 1-AA team.

I wish I had the balls to pick Chattanooga in this one. I don't: Oklahoma, 55-12.

No. 5 FLORIDA vs. Hawaii

The Warriors went 12-0 last year before getting destroyed by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. They'll start the 2008 season the same way they ended the last one, with another whooping.

This time it will be at the hands of Florida in the Swamp: 62-17, Florida.

No. 6 MISSOURI vs. No. 20 Illinois

Missouri beat the Illini at Illinois last year. Mizzou wins again this year, and by a bigger margin.

That's what happens when you don't have home-field advantage (and a first-round draft pick at running back): Missouri, 38-24.

No. 7 LOUISIANA STATE vs. Appalachian State

LSU attempts to schedule a cupcake, but they get Appalachian State instead. App. State returns do-everything quarterback Armanti Edwards while LSU has only question marks at the position. Side note: Would LSU be a national title favorite if it had Armanti Edwards as its passer? I think so.

Back to the pick. Edwards won't be enough: LSU, 31-17.

No. 8 WEST VIRGINIA vs. Villanova

WVU loses Steve Slaton and some defensive talent, but returns Pat White and Noel Devine. I, for one, am not sold on Bill Stewart. Still, WVU has too much talent not to win this game. Or do they?

DING DING DING! Your upset specia—just kidding: WVU, 48-13.

No. 9 CLEMSON* vs. No. 24 Alabama

The most-hyped game of Week One will feature some great talent and coaching. Will it live up to the billing? I think so, and I am predicting an epic battle of wits and grits.

The "home team" (Clemson, for those of you who cannot follow a legend) wins in overtime: 34-31, Clemson.

* Clemson is not really the home team, just listed as such. The game is in the Georgia Dome.

No. 10 AUBURN vs. Louisiana-Monroe

DING DING DING! You've reached my "are-you-crazy/out-on-a-limb/it-will-never-happen" upset special! Congratulations, you get to laugh at me when the Tigers destroy the (insert Louisiana-Monroe's mascot here).

Still, this is my crazy upset pick. Why? Auburn has an amazing ability to play up or down to the level of its competition. Plus, Auburn is installing a new offense and has question marks at quarterback. Plus La.-Monroe beat an SEC team, Alabama, last year. That is three reasons right there.

Three is the magic number, and the margin of victory: Louisiana-Monroe, 24-21.

No. 11 TEXAS vs. Florida Atlantic

Dammit! I wanted to pick this as my "are-you-crazy/out-on-a-limb/it-will-never-happen" upset special, but I got lured in by the enticing Auburn game above. FAU is a decent team with a great coach. Texas "underachieved" last year (Longhorn fans will always say they underachieved unless they've won some sort of title...best BBQ doesn't count).

I've got Texas in a closer-than-it-should-be game: 35-24, Texas.

No. 12 TEXAS TECH vs. Eastern Washington

The Red Raiders are going to have way too (which, Bleacher Reporters, is an adverb that means "to an excessive extent or degree," as opposed to the word "to," which is a preposition) much offense for Eastern Washington to handle. And Eastern Washington...well, isn't that just Idaho? The only good team from Idaho is Boise State.

That means that Texas Tech wins this game and doubles 'em up: 62-31, Texas Tech.

No. 13 WISCONSIN vs. Akron

I like Wisky because, well, I like whisky. Akron sounds like a software company or a nut.

Wisconsin is the second-best team in the Big Ten (sorry Illini) and will look the part against a very overmatched nut/software company: Wisconsin, 42-12.

No. 14 KANSAS vs. Florida International

One summer I worked in Miami right next to the FIU campus.

Not sure how that factors into the pick, but I've got the Jayhawks in a blowout over the miserable FIU squad: Kansas, 63-10.

No. 15 ARIZONA STATE vs. Northern Arizona

Battle for the Desert (you can have it). ASU has a great coach and a lot of returning talent. Northern Arizona is somewhere in northern Arizona.

ASU wins this one: 49-16, Arizona State.

That's my $0.02 USD (which is worth 0.005 US Gallons of gas). I've picked 15 games, so I'm sure I've offended at least 15 of you. Let me have it.

Florida Has the Most Talented Backfield in the SEC

Nick The Only — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 20:10:35 -0400

One of the keys to winning a championship is having a productive and reliable running game. The last two national champions were SEC teams that employed diverse rushing attacks, featuring not only running backs, but quarterbacks and other playmakers as ball carriers, too.

Florida used freshmen Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin and senior running back Deshawn Wynn to keep teams off balance and capture the 2006 BCS title. LSU won the 2007 title behind several running backs and some spot running by backup QB Ryan Perriloux.

What SEC team will feature the best running attack in 2008? The answer has to be the Florida Gators.

In 2007, the Florida Gators averaged 200 yards rushing per game. That was good enough for third in the SEC behind Arkansas and LSU. Georgia, who many view as a great running team, was a distant fourth in the SEC, averaging 33 yards less per game on the ground than third-place Florida.

I've taken a close look at all four of these teams. Based on the returning and incoming talent on each team, I've concluded that Florida is poised to dominate the league on the ground.

Arkansas

First in the SEC last season, Arkansas averaged a ridiculous 286 yards per game in 2007, but they lost two running backs to the NFL and their run-happy coach to Ole Miss. Bobby Petrino will not use a run-heavy offense, nor will he have the running back talent to duplicate the Hogs' 2007 rushing success.

Louisiana State

LSU returns a quality backfield from a team that finished second in the SEC in rushing with 214 yards per game. LSU will have a strong rushing attack this season, but their rushing stats will likely drop as defenses load up on the line and dare their inexperienced QBs to throw.

Georgia

Georgia returns a Heisman candidate running back, Knowshon Moreno, and a great, but currently injured, fullback Brannan Sutherland to a team that finished fourth in the SEC with 177 yards per game on the ground. Georgia lost 779 yards and 10 TDs with the departure of its second leading rusher Thomas Brown, but they add talented redshirt freshman Caleb King to the mix in 2008.

Georgia has enough talent in the backfield to be one of the top three rushing teams in the SEC.

Florida

Florida returns its four leading rushers from a 2007 team that averaged 200 yards per game. Tim Tebow led the team in rushing yards (895) and proved to be an unstoppable goal line force with his SEC record 23 rushing touchdowns. Tebow's rushing attempts will likely drop in 2008, but don't expect him to stop running for first downs and touchdowns.

Wide receiver Percy Harvin was second on the team with 764 yards on just 83 carries (9.2 average), and Meyer has promised to keep using him in the backfield in 2008.

Starting running back Kestahn Moore had only 580 yards but averaged more yards per carry than the heralded Bulldog, Knowshon Moreno. Return specialist/running back Brandon James was fourth on the team with 133 yards on limited carries, but Meyer has said that James will have a more prominent role in 2008.

To this already talented and diverse backfield, Florida adds four excellent running backs. Southern California transfer and former Pac-10 Freshman of the Year, Emmanuel Moody, will definitely see some playing time and could capture the starting running back role.

Along with Moody, the Gators add freshman speedster Jeffrey Demps and both Mon Williams and Chris Rainey will return from injury. Jeff Demps is a football player who just happens to have track speed. He is the fastest American teenager ever, after running a 10.02 second 100 meter dash this summer.

Mon Williams was a 4 star recruit who may have started ahead of Moore in 2007 if he did not suffer a season ending injury. Williams has great size and speed.

Of all the running backs, Chris Rainey may see the most time. It is no secret that Urban Meyer has speed greed. Jeff Demps is a blazer, but Rainey is even faster and he has a year of college conditioning, weight-training and playbook-studying under his belt.

Rainey has been highly praised by Meyer and has become somewhat of a legend on campus after he beat Demps in an impromptu 40 yard dash. He also reportedly beat WVU running back Noel Devine in a 40-yard dash when both were still playing for their Florida high schools.

If you take a team that managed to average 200 yards per game without a feature running back and add in four quality running backs, you've got a very dangerous running game. Florida will use their deep and diversely talented backfield to lead the SEC in rushing in 2007.

With a little help from their defensive counterparts, Florida's diverse backfield could lead the team to an SEC championship and a BCS title birth.

Ten Predictions for the 2008 NCAA Football Season

Nick The Only — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 14:15:41 -0400

In anticipation of the 2008 season kicking off less than four weeks from now, I have decided to compile a list of predictions. Bash them if you want, but I'd bet that I get at least one right. Let me know where I'm completely wrong and where I may be right.

10. Georgia will not finish No. 1 in the country.

The Bulldogs will finish third in the SEC East. Florida and Tennessee will finish No. 1 and No. 2, leaving a two- or three-loss Georgia team in third place in the East. Georgia will be done in by schedule (read: travel), distractions, offensive line inexperience and most of all, the giant No. 1 target on their backs. Preseason No. 1's have a poor track record of staying there.

9. You will witness a historically close Heisman race and vote.

Tim Tebow will remain in contention, but many challengers will step up. Tebow's numbers will likely drop because of the now-deep Gator backfield. This will open the door for everyone else.

There will be no clear-cut favorite, with the likes of Jeremy Maclin, Knowshon Moreno, Chase Daniel, Sam Bradford, Percy Harvin, Beanie Wells, and a plethora of other talented offensive players out there.

8. Pittsburgh will win the Big East.

Coach Wannstedt will ride LeSean McCoy and a good defense to a BCS bowl. West Virginia will not be the team it was in 2007, and Pittsburgh will be improved. Plus, Pitt proved it could beat the Mountaineers in 2007.

7. The new clock rules will result in exciting shootouts.

As many have observed, you will see hurry-up offenses try to create mismatches. With so many talented offensive players across the country, defenses will be scrambling to get into the right coverages.

6. The new clock rules will lead to more penalties and turnovers.

The hurry-up can backfire if young QBs are given too much control of the play-calling and players are hurrying instead of huddling. Look for a lot of miscues and interceptions.

5. Florida RB Brandon James will be such a threat as a punt returner that teams will stop kicking to him by season's end.

In 2007, James was a threat to take it to the house every time he caught a punt. James will be a junior this year and should really make a leap.

4. Ohio State will beat Southern Cal to quiet all the Big Ten haters.

OSU returns many more starters than USC and will have the extra motivation of being the probable underdog on the road.

3. OSU will go on to lose a Big Ten game.

This could cripple their title chances, depending the win-loss records of other conference champs. The good news for Buckeyes' fans is they'll still hold the "tiebreaker" over a one-loss USC.

2. Appalachian State QB Armanti Edwards will get manhandled by the LSU defense.

He looked good against Michigan because the Wolverines were not ready for him. LSU is a great defensive team that will not have blinders on like Michigan. Expect Edwards to have a long night. I just hope he makes it out of Death Valley in one piece.

1. There will be FOUR one-loss teams vying for a BCS title berth.

Just imagine the mayhem.

Florida Gators' Third Down Defense Will Determine 2008 Success (UPDATED!)

Nick The Only — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 19:20:00 -0400

(SCROLL TO BOTTOM FOR UPDATE)

Flashback to fall 2007. It's 3rd-and-12 in a close game. Tim Tebow and the dynamic Florida offense are on the sideline.

If you're a Florida Gator fan, you're as nervous as Dick Cheney's hunting partner.

You're nervous because you know that time after time, the 2007 Florida Gators allowed teams to steal momentum by converting third downs. No matter the yardage to be gained, the opponent somehow managed to reach the first down marker.

Not surprisingly, Florida was ranked 75th nationally in third down defense at 41.2 percent.

On the other side of the ball, Florida was the exact opposite. The Tebow-led offense was not only the best third down team in the country at 53.4 percent, it also faced the fewest third downs (146) of any team in the country.

What does all this mean?

Well, for starters it means that Florida's third down defense was awful in 2007. On the other hand, the offense's stats were incredible. Not only was the offense the best on third down, it also faced the fewest number of third downs of any FBS team.

The stats show that while the UF defense has room for improvement, the offense managed to move the ball with incredible efficiency.

At least three of the Gators' four losses were due to defensive ineptitude on third down. Unlike the 2006 title defense, the 2007 could not come through with the big plays.

What are the implications?

If the Gators have any chance at winning the SEC, the third down defense must improve. We're not talking about a vast improvement though.

Some of the best defenses in the nation (LSU at 35.2 percent, tOSU at 33.3 percent, and Georgia at 34.6 percent, for example) were only several percentage points better than the Gators. The difference amounts to one or two stops more per game.

There you have it. If the Gators offense continues its success from last season and the defense can be just a little more clutch, you could very well see Florida playing in Atlanta.

UPDATE: A 2007 Loss-by-loss Breakdown

To further illustrate the importance of 3rd down defense, I have decided to update this article with a breakdown of the Gators' losses during the 2007 season. The Gators lost four (4) games last season and 3rd (and 4th) down defense was a large reason for these losses. Here are the indisputable facts:

1. Loss to Auburn 20-17- This was a very low scoring game for Florida (which averaged 42.5 ppg in 2007). Despite the uncharacteristically low scoring, the Gators 3rd and 4th down defense was a big factor in the outcome of this game.

Auburn converted only 6 of 14 third downs (almost 43%). At first blush, this seems like an average performance (indeed, their 3rd down defensive average was 41.2%) from the Gators defense, but two factors illuminate the picture. First, Auburn was not an offensive powerhouse in 2007. Second, Auburn was 1 of 1 on fourth down. That means that Auburn completed 7 of 15 (46.7 %) third and fourth downs.

The Gators poor third and fourth down defense against Auburn kept the Gators high powered offense off the field and ultimately cost them the game.

2. Loss to LSU 28-24 - Anyone who watched this game knows that the Florida defense just could not get off the field. Florida had several opportunities to win this game and just blew it because the defense allowed LSU to convert in every critical situation.

The numbers are in-line with your memory of this game. Florida allowed LSU to convert almost 50% of their 3rd downs (8 of 17) and ALL of their 4th downs (5 of 5). If Florida's defense could have made just one 4th down stop, Florida could have left Baton Rouge with a win.

3. Loss to Georgia 42-30 - One word: PITIFUL. Georgia was 10 of 13 (77 %) on third down in this game. If Florida's 3rd down defense had been just average in this game, Florida may have easily won despite Tebow's shoulder injury.

10 of 13 is a very dark cloud, but there is a silver lining. It is unlikely that Georgia will go 77% on third down against the Gators in two straight seasons. In fact, the 2007 Florida-Georgia game was Georgia's performance on 3rd down all season.

4. Loss to Michigan 41-35 - Again, Florida's defense could not get off the field when it mattered. Michigan converted 10 of 15 (67%) third downs. In such a close game, Florida really could have used one more defensive stop.