Bleacher Report - Articles by Josh Johnson

Minnesota Twins News Links

Josh Johnson — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 01:00:00 -0500

• Here's a great article about Brendan Harris visiting a middle school. It's hard not to respect a guy like Harris after reading that. He definitely went up a few notches in my book.

• Mark DeRosa and Jarrod Washburn are reportedly being linked to the Twins.

• The Twins unveiled new uniforms, patches, hats, and logos on Monday. I personally like the changes and can't wait to buy a new away jersey. Here are some more thoughts:

• Ron Gardenhire came in second to Angels manager Mike Scocia in voting for A.L. Manager of the Year . Brian Pietrzak believes Gardenhirew was snubbed . I personally thought Rangers manager Ron Washington was snubbed or at the very least deserved more votes than he got. But I'm not surprised, being that the Rangers failed to make the playoffs.

• For some great pictures of Target Field, check out both the walking tour from NPR and Phil Mackey's pictures.

• The Twins have until Friday to put players on their 40-man rosters which would protect them from potentially being taken in next month's Rule V Draft. The Twins have eight minor league free agents. Here's a look at who the Twins may or may not protect. Also, here's Seth Stohs ' thoughts on the manner.

• On Stohs' latest podcast , Danny Valencia and Steve Singleton were guests and it was a great listen. Both are intelligent players with plenty of potential. It's definitely worth a listen if you're interested in Twins prospects.

• Chris Jaffe of the Hardball Times and author of Evaulation Baseball's Managers: A History and Analysis of Performance in the Major Leagues, 1876-2008 posted an excerpt of his book regarding former Twins manager Billy Martin. It's a great read and a book that every Twins fan should check out.

• As mentioned this past weekend , Justin Huber has indeed signed a contract to play in Japan next season. But Twins fans found out later that he won't be the only Rochester Red Wing heading across the Pacific. Juan Morillo has also signed a contract with a Japanese team and will be pitching overseas next season. Tough break for the Twins and Rochester Red Wings.

And finally, here's what's going on around the Twins Blogosphere...

Aaron Gleeman answers some questions from his Twitter Mailbag .
John Bonnes writes about how finding pitching is a crapshoot .
Nick Nelson offers his views on Joe Crede.
Parker Hageman writes about why we should care about pitching, independent of fielding .
Andrew Kneeland writes about future Twins outfielder Rene Tosoni.
Josh Taylor writes about some of the recent transactions .
Neckrolls is currently writing his offseason blueprint. Here's part 1 and part 2 .

Minnesota Twins: Bye Bye, Justin Huber?

Josh Johnson — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 13:55:00 -0500

NPB Tracker just posted a report from the The Chugoku Shimbun that Justin Huber is close to signing a contract with the Hiroshima Carp.

This week, Huber was taken off of the 40-man roster and was sent outright to Triple-A. The Carp then put in a request for Huber which, according to the report, was accepted immediately.

The Twins letting Huber go doesn't make a lot of sense to me. For starters, the Rochester Red Wings were a pretty bad team last season and Huber was a fan-favorite who led the club in home runs, RBI, and batting average.

And on top of winning the Red Wings' Triple Crown, Huber was named an I.L. All-Star and competed in the home run derby in which he provided the night's longest home run (438 feet).

That doesn't mean he should be untouchable, but ripping a player like Huber away from the Red Wings will definitely hurt the team.

He also provides depth at both the corner outfield and first base, two positions the Twins need depth. At first thought, you'd probably disagree.

But there's going to be some concern over Justin Morneau's injury and whether Delmon Young finally turns a leaf in left field, Huber would have been an adequate replacement.

Unfortunately, the Twins didn't feel Huber was valuable enough to keep around and will probably come to an agreement of a modest dollar amount.

Hopefully, the Twins find a replacement who can fill Huber's shoes down in Rochester. I know they are going to be full in the outfield and could rely heavily on David Winfree at first base (if he's re-signed), but I still think that keeping a guy like that around when there's uncertainty regarding the depth is a positive.

I've always nagged on the Twins for blocking prospects with older non-prospect players in the minor leagues, but I always took this situation as an exception.

The Red Wings will likely be very young and inexperienced again next season, which could keep Rochester out of contention in the I.L. North for the second consecutive season.

Who's at Second?: Twins Have Numerous Options To Complete Right Side of Infield

Josh Johnson — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 03:08:00 -0500

Since Todd Walker and Chuck Knoblauch played at the Metrodome, the Twins haven't had steady play from any of their second basemen. In fact, the team has put in little effort (at least, compared to other positions) to upgrade it at all.

Surely you can mention Bret Boone or Luis Castillo, but both were well past their primes before putting on a Twins uniform. When options like Alexi Casilla and Luis Rivas have failed, the Twins haven't been able to find a suitable replacement.

Now after a decade of futility at (admittedly) a position that isn't viewed as a highly productive position, the Twins could be in a great position to finally find a productive player to put at second base.

Last week, I mentioned who I would most like to see at second base. Today, I'll give other options that could entice the Twins. Thankfully, there are quite a few.

Orlando Cabrera

The Twins traded for J.J. Hardy last week , which made everyone assume that the Twins would move on from Cabrera. But since the trade, there have been some rumblings over Ron Gardenhire's comments of how he would like to keep Cabrera with the team. As a second baseman.

I understand why Gardenhire would like to keep a person like Cabrera around, but from a player standpoint, I see little reasoning to it. Cabrera hasn't played more than a game at second base sine 1998, and he's a liability at the top of the lineup.

If the Twins had an ideal No. 2 hitter to implant between Denard Span and Joe Mauer, I might be a little more open to it. But I would like to see someone that is better at getting on base in that spot.

Cabrera played well for the Twins down the stretch, but I'm sure that he's looking for a multi-year deal, and that's not something I'd like to see the Twins offer a 35-year-old with a severely declined skill set.

Orlando Hudson

When taking in both offensive and defensive production, Hudson's been one of the most underrated second basemen in all of baseball this decade. Despite being on the wrong side of 30, he still has proven to have a productive bat from both sides of the plate.

Last season, Hudson hit .283/.357/.417, which was pretty similar to the triple slash line that he put up as a 26-year-old in Toronto and nearly identical to his career hitting line.

The problem with Hudson these days isn't his bat—it's his defense. Yesterday, reports came out that Hudson won the fourth Gold Glove Award of his career. Although we won't know until later today if that's true, we've come to know that the award is based a lot on reputation rather than actual defensive standards.

According to his UZR , Hudson has been considered below average defensively in both the last two seasons. But his defense was better in 2009 than it was in 2008, which could make some believe that he's on the rebound.

Hudson's injury risks and declining defense may make some want to keep away from signing him. Much like last offseason, Hudson heads into free agency with the lackluster "Type A" status hanging over his head, which immediately made me say, "No way, Jose!" But as John Bonnes points out , some teams may be against offering some of their players arbitration over fear of them accepting it.

While I don't think the Dodgers would be distraught over Hudson accepting their arbitration proposal, they may be better advised to let him walk instead of offering him a large one-year offer. As Bonnes mentioned, Hudson was benched toward the end of last season after falling apart in September.

If the Dodgers don't offer arbitration to Hudson, I expect the Twins to make a big play for him. He's an ideal two-hole hitter and wouldn't cost a first round pick. Even with his declining defense, the Twins would be making a mistake if they didn't look into him.

Placido Polanco

Much like the case between the Dodgers and Hudson, the Tigers have a tough decision to make whether or not to offer Polanco arbitration. Polanco also qualified as a Type A free agent, and the 34-year-old will look at the trouble that fellow 30-plus-year-old infielders have had trying to ink a contract and could choose to stay in Motown.

The Tigers aren't as prepared as the Dodgers in the event that Polanco does accept arbitration. The reason is that Scott Sizemore is slated to start at second for the Tigers in 2010, and it probably isn't worth the risk to offer Polanco arbitration.

Despite his age, Polanco is still very valuable defensively and was awarded the second Gold Glove of his career yesterday. According to UZR , Polanco saved 11.4 runs with his glove this season, the highest in baseball.

Polanco also is a pest at the plate and could be an interesting bat to have between Span and Mauer. Although he doesn't walk a ton, he's hard to strike out and makes a lot of contact.

Polanco, like Hudson, should also be on the Twins' radar if he's not offered arbitration.

Brandon Phillips

Unlike the other options, Philips would need to be acquired through a trade instead of free agency. The Reds are believed to be cutting costs this offseason, which makes players such as Phillips vulnerable to be traded. He's set to make $29.75 million over the next three years but doesn't turn 30 until the middle of the 2011 season.

Phillips isn't an ideal two-hole hitter, but he's a good right-handed bat with pop. He also plays very strong defense and was recognized with a Gold Glove in 2008.

Unfortunately, the Twins already have several eight-figure players on the team already, and should they add Phillips, they'd be adding two more for 2011 with Michael Cuddyer's option being picked up. If the Twins planned on shedding some salary between now and then, it might make some sense, but I don't see the Twins adding a player like Phillips right now.

So there are several other players that have been discussed throughout the Twins Blogosphere. I still think that Felipe Lopez would be a good fit, but there are certainly other intriguing options that could make sense for the Twins.

Twins Offseason Blueprint: Letting Go (The Joe Crede Edition)

Josh Johnson — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 01:00:00 -0500

Not even a year ago, the Twins signed Joe Crede to be a one-year stopgap at third base while the organization waits for Danny Valencia to make his way up.

The deal was a great opportunity for Crede to prove to other ball clubs that he was fully healed from back surgery and worthy of a long-term contract.

Unfortunately, things didn't quite work out the way either side wanted. Valencia isn't quite ready, and Crede hurt himself, eliminating any chances he had of joining another team with a multi-year deal.

Although one would expect that the Twins and Crede would part ways, the contrary seems to be likely. The Twins and Crede could both use one another for yet another season.

Many believe that Valencia could probably handle the starting job right out of spring training, but the Twins' ultra-conservative approach with position prospects makes that a pipe dream at this point in time. That leaves a possibility for the Twins and Crede to be able to find a way to keep the 31-year-old in Minnesota for another year.

Any contract would likely be a one-year deal with similar incentives to his last contract. His last deal had incentives that could bring his $2.5 million salary close to $7 million based on performance and playing time.

Crede seemingly enjoyed his time with the Twins, and he was a good clubhouse fit. With a team that is likely to lose veterans such as Mike Redmond and Orlando Cabrera (among others), the Twins need to keep some of the clubhouse charisma that it has.

When Crede was able to play, he proved to be a very valuable defender while putting up a putrid .225/.289/.414 hitting line. But on a brighter note, he did have 16 doubles, 15 home runs, and 48 RBI in 333 at-bats.

Crede underwent back surgery at the end of September and has supposedly felt very good at this point in the recovery. But when he's had three procedures on his back since 2007, it's a huge risk in any way, shape, or form when dealing with a guy like him.

Thankfully, he has expressed interest of staying in Minnesota and would probably accept a similar deal that brought him here in the first place.

Personally, I've always liked Crede and enjoyed him with the Twins (when he could play), but I think that the Twins would be better off going after a high on-base guy at either second base or third base and letting Nick Punto play the last infield position.

With J.J. Hardy at shortstop, the Twins would have a very good defensive infield if they did decide to re-sign Crede. Really, I wouldn't be outraged if they did decide to bring him back.

But it does scare me to think of another year of wasting the second spot in the lineup ahead of guys like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

Trade Evaluation: Carlos Gomez for JJ Hardy

Josh Johnson — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:00:00 -0500

Now that everyone is starting to calm down over the initial reports of dealing fan-favorite Carlos Gomez for JJ Hardy, it's time to evaluate the trade from several angles.

Twins

This trade from a Twins perspective is good. While Gomez is one of the best defensive outfielders in the league, he yielded playing time in center field to Denard Span and when Delmon Young started hitting late in the season, Gomez saw seldom playing time.

The Twins clearly didn't value Gomez's defense enough to make up for his putrid offense. Which obviously made him expendable.

The Twins being able to pry Hardy from the Brewers without having to give up more than Gomez looks to be an initial 'win' for Minnesota.

Hardy was once viewed as 'untouchable' with the likes of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, but poor play and the emergence of Alcides Escobar ultimately forced the Brewers hand.

The Twins having gaping holes everywhere except for first base in the infield. Hardy fufills a hole at shortstop while Nick Punto likely fills another hole at either second or third base.

To add: Peter brought up a good point in the comment sections. Baseball has a lot to do with marketing and while Gomez was a fan-favorite in the Twin Cities, Hardy has been known to be a fan-favorite in Wisconsin and I'm sure (from a marketing perspective) the Twins aren't losing a ton while potentially gaining a lot of marketability in Hardy.

Brewers

The Brewers, as mentioned, felt the need to trade Hardy now while he still has some value left. But had they traded him prior to the July trade deadline, the Brewers probably would have gotten quite a bit more in return.

With Mat Gamel making his way to the Majors and Casey McGehee emerging as an option the Brewers thoughts of moving Hardy to third base didn't seem like a viable option anymore.

With no room left for Hardy in the infield, the Brewers knew heading into the off-season that they'd have to move one of them to fill in another position of need.

Pitching seemed to be the likely position they'd target in a trade. Mike Cameron is a free agent and seemed likely to test the free agent waters, so the Brewers decided to not waste any time in finding his replacement.

They go from an older good defensive outfielder to a younger, better defensive outfielder. Unfortunately they'll miss Cameron's bat, but if Gomez can reach his potential, they'll be plenty pleased with what Gomez can bring to the table. A fine move on the Brewers behalf.

Now what?

Despite what I mentioned earlier, Bill Smith mentioned that this will mean the end of Orlando Cabrera's time in Minnesota. Smith also mentioned that Nick Punto will likely play either second base or third base which means the club could look to add one of the two.

Punto can play either position adequately so the Twins have plenty of options. Right now, the lineup would likely be:

That lineup (to many) would be great, but it unfortunately makes me cringe. Why? Because the thought of Hardy batting second makes me want to puke. He has a career .323 on-base percentage and last season, he got on base 30.2% of the time, which is not good enough for the two-hole.

The Twins are notorious for wasting the number two spot in the lineup and when you have guys at number one and three in the lineup that get on-base at a high clip, the two-hole shouldn't be any different.

In order to optimize the lineup we have, I think it's pretty clear that the Twins need to add a player that is a better fit in the two-hole than what Hardy is. In turn, the Twins will be able to stretch their lineup out, allowing Hardy to slide down to number seven in the lineup.

Even after this latest trade, the Twins still have several trading chips that could interest other teams. They also have a few options they can pursue via free agency.

One player that would fit the role perfectly would be Chone Figgins, but acquiring him is probably not realistic. To me, the best fit would be Felipe Lopez.

After struggling to crack the lineup as a regular in Toronto, the Blue Jays traded Lopez to Cincinnati prior to the 2003 season. The Reds got similar production from Lopez in both 2003 and 2004 as he backed-up Barry Larkin. Larkin retired prior to the 2005 season and the Reds gave Lopez an opportunity to start. He finished the season hitting .291/.352/.486 with 62 extra-base hits including 23 home runs.

But Lopez was traded to the Washington Nationals in the middle of the 2006 season and he fell off the face of the earth during his two years spent in the nation's capital and the Nationals decided to trade him during the 2008 season to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Something started clicking for Lopez in St. Louis and he carried it with him as a free agent in 2009 to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks were out of contention at the trade deadline and dealt him to the Milwaukee Brewers where he continued to rip the cover off of the ball.

Lopez isn't an All-Star by any means, but he's a solid defensive second baseman and can fill in at third base if needed.

He also has a .392 OBP since the middle of the 2008 season which can't be ignored. Lopez signed a one-year $3.5 million deal with the Diamondbacks last off-season and is likely to receive a substantial pay raise this time around.

Lopez is still on the good side of 30, which means he'll likely be getting a multi-year contract. The Twins don't look to have anyone close to the Majors who would be threatening to take over second base anytime soon so if they wanted to explore a two or three-year deal with Lopez, it'd be a good decision. Signing Lopez to a two-years and $12 million with a third year option of $8 million would be a great move for the Twins.

It'd also give us a lineup like this:

And the best part? The Twins can do this without having to break the bank for someone like Figgins. In fact, according to the TwinsCentric GM Handbook , this would give the Twins a payroll around $87 million.

Even if the Twins added $7-8 million onto Mauer's contract extension (if they do sign him to an extension), the Twins would still be within what their self-imposed salary cap would be, which is believed to be between $90-$100.

And the Twins could still have a few million to work with in signing a starting pitcher. A good risk for the Twins would be to look into Ben Sheets as a free agent. He likely could be signed for under $2 million (without incentives) and could be a huge boost to this rotation.

The point I'm trying to get across is that the Twins still have a lot of options on how they want to finish off this roster and while re-signing Mauer remains the top priority, it's great to see the Twins not waste any time acquiring new players.

Minnesota Twins Trade Carlos Gomez for JJ Hardy

Josh Johnson — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:04:00 -0500

The Twins and Brewers have reportedly agreed to a trade that would send Carlos Gomez to Milwaukee in exchange for JJ Hardy.

This move isnt' a surprise as both players have been mentioned in rumors over the course of this last season. The surprise is that the Twins pulled the trigger on it so quickly. Although I still think that this doesn't necessarily means the end for Orlando Cabrera in Minnesota (as Hardy can play third base), this could make the next few weeks interesting as we head into free agency.

I personally would have loved to keep Gomez on the team as I still think that at this time, he's a much more valuable commodity than Delmon Young, but I understand the Twins' reasoning for getting rid of him.

Unfortunately, the Twins over-value Denard Span's offense in center field and unless Young gains some speed over the off-season, I don't know how I feel about the Twins' outfield (defensively) heading into next season.

Regardless, this move is good for both teams and seeing the Twins strike early is a great thing to see. And I'm sure the ladies will love having both Hardy and Joe Mauer on the same team...oh brother.

Stay tuned...

Twins Offseason Blueprint: Letting Go (The Mike Redmond Edition)

Josh Johnson — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 01:00:00 -0500

After spending seven years with the Florida Marlins as a backup catcher, Mike Redmond came north to Minnesota to serve as Joe Mauer's primary backup.

Redmond was already considered one of the best backups in all of baseball prior to coming to Minnesota, but he solidified that title with the Twins.

Redmond signed a two-year, $1.8 million deal with the Twins after the 2004 season. He later signed a three-year contract extension during the middle of the 2006 season.

Over the last five years with Minnesota, Redmond has hit .297/.339/.359 while giving the team solid defense. But as Redmond got older, both his offense and defense declined drastically, and he finished the last year of his contract hitting .237/.299/.289 while throwing out only 13 percent of runners, which were all career lows.

One would expect that all of these factors would be a clear enough reason for Redmond to hang up the cleats, but think again. Redmond indicated near the end of the season that he's not yet ready to retire and plans on playing next season, whether it be in Minnesota or not.

Down the stretch, Redmond yielded playing time to Jose Morales, who put up substantially better numbers. The 26-year-old Morales hit .311/.381/.361 with a 103 OPS+ in 54 games with the Twins this season. Not only is Morales better offensively, but he's becoming a better defender as well, which has held him back in years past.

As much of a fan favorite as Redmond has become, it'd make no sense to bring him back next season. While the Twins obviously place a lot of emphasis on veteran leadership, the Twins know that Redmond is a liability and cannot be counted on every day. Not only that, but he stands to make twice as much as Morales while giving a fraction of the production.

As great as it'll someday be to see Redmond waving runners around third base at Target Field, the Twins need to let him finish off his career somewhere else and move on with Morales.

Minnesota Twins Offseason Blueprint: Letting Go (The Carl Pavano Edition)

Josh Johnson — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:00:00 -0500

To carry-on with the discussions on who the Twins should bring back, Carl Pavano is the next to be discussed. After failing to acquire a starting pitcher at the July trade deadline, most fans grew huffy and puffy at Bill Smith who despite trading for Orlando Cabrera hadn't really done a whole lot to improve the team.

But as Twins fans found out this season, August may be more active than July. The Twins hit the waiver wire hard in August and acquired three pitchers, including Pavano.

After establishing himself as a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter with the Florida Marlins, the New York Yankees handed Pavano nearly $40 million over four years. But the injury bug hit Pavano and the right-hander threw only 145 2/3 innings for the Yankees over four years.

The Yankees declined an $13 million option on Pavano heading into the 2009 season and he later latched on with the Cleveland Indians who gave him a one-year deal worth $1.5 million. He was later placed on waivers in August where the Twins claimed him. To complete the trade, the Twins had to surrender Yohan Pino, which seemed a little steep, but eventually Twins fans supported the deal and most became big Pavano supporters.

Not only did Pavano pitch well against the Detroit Tigers, he also made a great start in the playoffs against the Yankees. Pavano finally started to prove to people that he can stay healthy for an entire season and is an option to sign for more than one year. The Twins loved the influence he had on the young pitching staff and also loved the results they got from Pavano.

With Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn the only pitchers that have really established themselves as mainstays in the rotation, the Twins do have some flexibility with the rest of their rotation.

The majority believe that the Twins will have a rotation compiled of both Baker and Blackburn with Kevin Slowey and Brian Duensing filling out the rest of the staff. That leaves several internal options that could take that last spot including Glen Perkins, Jeff Manship, and Francisco Liriano. But the general consensus is that the Twins will look outside the rotation to fill that final spot.

That's obviously where Pavano comes into play. Should the Twins re-sign him and go forward with the same rotation that essentially got them into the playoffs?

Personally, much like in the case with Cabrera , I personally would rather see the Twins attempt to improve the rotation before settling for Pavano. While Pavano is a nice back-end starter, I fear that the Twins will move forward without seriously improving the position that held them back for much of last season.

According to estimates from our friends at TwinsCentric.com , Pavano may very well get at least $6 million a season, which to me isn't the problem. The problem comes when I think of the Twins being in the same position that they were in much of last season; great offense with poor starting pitching. And when I think of that, I see Pavano being at the forefront of the problem.

Despite putting up decent numbers this season, I am not in any way very optimistic about him being the kind of pitcher the Twins need, which is a front-end (#2-type of) starter. While I'm sure Pavano has finally turned a leaf and is truly ready to be a stable starter in a rotation, I think he's still a #4 starter at this point and I think the Twins would be better suited going after a player with more upside.

I sadly don't see John Lackey as a realistic option for the Twins, but guys like Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, or Ben Sheets could fit the bill. All of those guys mentioned carry a big warning sign around their neck, but all fit the bill. All three would likely accept one or two year deals as well, which is probably what the Twins are ideally looking for.

And if the Twins are serious about improving the team, maybe a guy like Lackey would be on their radar. The TwinsCentric crew estimates a four-year, $56 million being what it takes to nab Lackey. But given the weakness of this year's free agent class, I'm sure several teams will be biding for Lackey's services and we could very well see him get a six year, $80 million deal from someone. But of course, it's anyone's guess at this point.

If the free agent market fails, the Twins could also target a player through a trade. Javier Vazquez's name could come up this off-season while the Braves try to add Major League hitters.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure the Twins have the pieces it'd take to acquire Vazquez, at least not without going overboard. Guys like Derek Lowe and Bronson Arroyo may be more realistic. But I'm not really that giddy about either of those guys either.

But to me, the best way the Twins could improve their rotation will be through free agency. Although I'd like to see the Twins move away from Pavano, I think the Twins will make a serious effort to re-sign him and with that said, I'll be surprised to see him with a different club next season.

Minnesota Twins' Offseason Blueprint: Letting Go (The Orlando Cabrera Edition)

Josh Johnson — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 23:53:00 -0400

With the Joe Mauer situation on the back-burner, the Twins now can turn their attention to which of their internal free agents they would like to retain for the next season. With five guys slated for free agency, the Twins will obviously have to make the tough decisions on who they should bring back and who they shouldn't.

Orlando Cabrera was acquired just hours before last July's trade deadline . The Twins sent prospect Tyler Ladendorf to the Oakland Athletics in exchange for the 34-year-old shortstop. At the time, many expected a move such as this to help appease the vocal, veteran players . But Cabrera was just the beginning of what would be a very busy two week period in which the Twins would add four more players to help down the stretch.

With the Twins, Cabrera hit in the two-hole and put up a triple-slash line of .285/.309/.426 with 21 extra-base hits in 59 games. Had Cabrera put up a higher on-base percentage, I would probably be more anxious to bring him back, but someone who gets on base 31 percent of the time is a liability in the two-hole.

Another thing that doesn't excite me about Cabrera is his quick decline in defense. Cabrera went from being one of the best defensive shortstops in the game to one of the worst. Could it have just been a down season? Perhaps. But having an off-year at 34 doesn't really suggest that he's likely to turn it around.

But with all that said, I'll be surprised if the Twins don't bring him back. The Twins love the energy and leadership he brings to the team and by all accounts, Cabrera loved his time with the Twins. Cabrera also had a positive influence on a couple of the Spanish-speaking players on the team, primarily Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla.

Both players are underachievers and would benefit from more bonding from a mentor like Cabrera. Cabrera was hurt badly by a down economy and his Type-A status last offseason but was determined to not get hurt by it again and negotiated in his contract that if he were to gain Type-A status again, his former team wouldn't be able to offer him arbitration.

And, of course, Cabrera indeed looks to be a Type-A free agent which means that if he leaves, the Twins will not get any compensation in return.

Although I think Cabrera is a fine player to have at the bottom of the lineup, I can't stand the thought of the Twins wasting him between Denard Span and Mauer. Although I would be surprised if he doesn't return, I personally hope he's the Twins' backup option while they search for a younger, better player.

If he does return, I won't be that upset because I do feel that he can be a valuable player. But I do want to see either shortstop or second base improve. So if he does return, I want to see an upgrade at second base.

Offseason Outlook: Step One

Josh Johnson — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 01:49:00 -0400

The Minnesota Twins season ended after one of the best comebacks anyone could have ever imagined. But poor plays and bad calls consumed their time in the playoffs and unfortunately were knocked out by the New York Yankees after just three games.

The Twins played great down the stretch when it mattered. And I know some argue that the Tigers just merely blew it (making the argument that they blew it more than we won it), but really it's a rhetorical question and in the end it doesn't matter. Both can be right.

And although many are still mourning the early playoff exit, which is obviously understandable, they should also be prepared for what should be the most exciting next 12 months in Twins history.

Although we've all been disappointed in the lack of offseason activity before (cough, last year), all signs point to the Twins being fairly active this offseason (like we haven't heard that before). I advise many to take that with a grain of salt to save what could be a big disappointment, but if this July and August were any precursor to what this offseason could hold, then we could all be pleasantly surprised.

First and foremost, the most pressing issue is obviously getting Joe Mauer re-signed. The Twins may have been interested in re-signing him last off-season but they took the chance on his back issues lowering his value which we all know didn't happen.

Although we all dream that he'll sign for a "hometown discount" because he's gone on record to say that he's not really interested in being the highest paid guy, we all need to also understand that he could merely be saying that from a PR stand point and could still very well put himself out of the Twins' price range.

Regardless of which way you look at it, I don't think anyone should feel at all comfortable about the future of Mauer's in Minnesota until he's signed. I personally don't believe he'll leave and I think a deal will get done, but I also thought the same would be true of both Torii Hunter and Johan Santana.

Completely understanding that those two don't draw the same kind of ties Mauer does to Minnesota, they both went on record several times stating their desire to stay in Minnesota and for one reason or another; whether it be the front office's or the player's fault, both aren't with the Twins anymore because of money.

Needless to say, I sadly can't say I'd be completely surprised if Mauer wasn't playing in Minnesota in 2011. But with that said, I also understand that the Twins understand Mauer's value and with respect to both Santana and Hunter, I think we can all agree that Mauer is a better player than either of them. Which in part is why I do feel optimistic about a deal getting done.

Well...that...and the fact that I'm sure that 99 percent of their fan base will participate in some kind of boycott.

So what could it take? Obviously that's a question everyone wishes they could answer and I'm sure not even Mauer knows at this point. Personally, I believe it'll be something around eight-years and $165 million. In comparison, that would be the fourth largest contract in baseball history.

Is that a good deal (hypothetically, obviously)? It's safe to say that he could probably get more than that on the free agent market which would obviously mean he's taking a "discount" (if you want to call $165 million a discount). So from that aspect, yes.

And with some speculation of a 2010 payroll somewhere between $90 and $100 million, it looks as though the Twins will be able to afford him at this price (or even slightly more than the $165 million). But how much more might the Twins be willing to go?

If Mauer all of a sudden wakes up one morning and wants to Dream Like New York (like Tyrone Wells) and demands a contract somewhere along the lines of eight-years and $200 million, I can't say I see the Twins re-signing him. Obviously that's a bit more than my proposed deal, but that invisible 'line' that separates the two isn't really far off from either one.

Regardless if you agree with me or not regarding dollar amounts, the point of all this is that nothing else can—or should, for that matter—be decided until Mauer is extended. Last month, I wrote:

...it's a pretty safe assumption that nothing will get done until number seven is signed, and while I hope it gets done early, I'm unfortunately expecting it to drag on throughout the off-season which could give the front office plenty of excuses why they're not more aggressive on the market.

And sadly, I know that this is still a big probability.

***

Since we're on the subject of playing GM, I think this is the right time to tell everyone of an awesome product. The Twins Centric group of writers have just released an eBook called the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook.

The writers of the book are fellow Twins bloggers Seth Stohs (of Seth Speaks), Parker Hageman (of Over the Baggy), John Bonnes (the Twins Geek), and Nick Nelson (of Nick's Twins Blog), so obviously you already know you're getting great content.

The four of them give you an overwhelming amount of information over 137 pages in which they put you in the seat of the Twins' GM. They give you a look at potential trade targets, free agents and other hot topics that concern the Twins. It's a great way to support the Twins blogosphere and I know you won't be disappointed.

And if you get over there quick, they're giving a free preview of one-third of the book.

Award Predictions: MVP

Josh Johnson — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 01:00:00 -0400

Last week, I gave my picks for both the Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young awards, and today I'll finish it out by awarding my (obvious) MVP votes.

As I said, these picks are pretty obvious and therefore don't need a lot of explaining...

National League

If you're wondering who the best player in baseball is, it's without a doubt Albert Pujols. For those of you not taking advantage of watching as much of him as possible, you're truly missing out. Baring injury, Pujols may go down as one of the two or three best hitters to ever play this game, which is saying quite a bit considering he's never been connected to performance-enhancing drugs in an era littered with controversy.

This season, Pujols had one month in which he didn't have an OPS of 1.000. He didn't hit for nearly as much power in the second half of the season, but he finished the year with 47 home runs, which still lead the majors.

Some were worried about Pujols' surgically-repaired elbow giving him fits heading into the season, but that obviously proved to not be the case.

Pujols has already won the MVP award twice in his career and unless something unthinkable happens, this should be his third MVP award in the past eight years.

Runner-Up: Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers
Who'll Likely Win: Albert Pujols - 1B - St. Louis Cardinals
Pre-Season Pick: Manny Ramirez - LF - Los Angeles Dodgers

American League

Again, no surprise here. I'd like to say I predicted this, but I honestly can't say I did.

Joe Mauer put up unreal numbers this season. Many doubted his ability to hit for power and actually held a grudge against him for not being able to, and how did he respond? He went to the Home Run Derby for the first time in his career. And although he didn't win, he did pretty good for a guy with a career-high 13 home runs heading into the season.

And just to show the type of season Mauer had, he nearly matched his career-high in home runs (13) in his first month of the season by hitting 11. He more-than doubled his career high in home runs with 28 on the season, which also helped him drive in a career high 96 RBI, despite missing the entire month of April.

What Mauer did offensively is oustanding, and when you factor in that he won his third batting title in four seasons, it makes it all the more impressive. Mauer flirted with .400 for much of the first half, but ultimately had to settle for a career-best .368 average.

Maybe I jumped the gun by saying that Pujols is the best player in baseball, because I don't know how much better you can get than Mauer. While Pujols may go down as one of the best hitters in the history of the game, Mauer may go down as the best catcher ever. And what's even more impressive is that Mauer has accomplished this much before even turning 27 years old. The best of Mauer may be coming, which should scare opposing pitchers.

Runner-Up: Mark Teixeira - 1B - New York Yankees
Who'll Likely Win: Joe Mauer - C - Minnesota Twins
Pre-Season Pick: Josh Hamilton - OF - Texas Rangers

Award Predictions: Cy Young

Josh Johnson — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 01:00:00 -0400

Yesterday, I posted my choice for the Rookie of the Year for both the American and National Leagues, so today I'll keep the ball rolling with the Cy Young award.

National League

I honestly can't remember a time in which a league has three pitchers are so close to one another in the Cy Young voting. While there is one guy that likely won't win it, he does need to be mentioned. Adam Wainwright had an outstanding season in which he lead the National League with 19 wins and 233 innings pitched. He also finished in the top five in ERA, and while most years those numbers would certainly be enough, he'll likely finish third this season in Cy Young voting.

To me, it's really a coin flip between Tim Lincecum and Chris Carpenter, and a case could certainly be made for both. And I'm going to take the easy way out and say that these two are both equally deserving of this award and should share it.

I know players sharing an award is pretty lame and probably won't gain much support, but I couldn't choose one over the other. On one hand, Lincecum is the most dominant pitcher in baseball and was in the top five in wins, ERA, strikeouts, innings pitched and WHIP. After winning the award in 2008 with outstanding numbers, he improved in most of his statistical categories this season. He lowered his walks, ERA, WHIP and BAA.

As for Carpenter, what he did this season may be more impressive as he had only appeared in five games—prior to this season—since 2006. After winning the Cy Young award in 2005, he had a successful 2006 season but fell short of defending his title. After injuring his elbow on Opening Day in 2007, he took a few months off to rehab before ultimately undergoing Tommy John Surgery in the middle of the 2007 season. He returned late in 2008 and put up great numbers in limited action, but nobody expected his first season back from surgery to be this successful.

This season, Carpenter lead the National League in ERA and finished in the top five in Wins and WHIP. He only gave up more than four runs two times this season. If he could take back those two starts, he would have been 17-2 with a 1.73 ERA. That's not a reasoning to vote for him, but it does go to show just how good he was. One thing that will hurt Carpenter is having his teammate stealing away votes from him.

I don't know who'll win this one. I think that most voters will go with Carpenter because of leading the league in ERA, having more wins than Lincecum and also being on a winning team. But I think it's a really close race that will be one to pay attention to.

Runner-Up: Adam Wainwright—P—St. Louis Cardinals
Who'll Likely Win: Chris Carpenter—P—St. Louis Cardinals.
Pre-Season Pick: Rich Harden—P—St. Louis Cardinals

American League

Unlike the National League, this race isn't even really close. And although many people will name a few guys that should be mentioned, there is just one player that is far and away the clear winner. And it's no surprise that it's Zack Greinke.

There was no pitcher in baseball this season or even in the past couple of seasons that put up numbers like Greinke did, and had Greinke been on a team other than the Royals, his numbers would have been even more impressive. Why is that? Because while he did win 16 games, he also lost eight times. So what? Well out of those eight times, in four of those games he gave up three runs or fewer. He also had eight no decisions in which he gave up three runs or fewer. On average, he received less than four runs of support in his starts which is just atrocious.

Greinke put up remarkable numbers and it's amazing to think that in 2006, Greinke nearly walked away from the game at the age of 22. He took most of the 2006 season off for personal reasons but returned in 2007 and was ready to show-off his skills. Greinke has always had enormous potential and it's great that he's finally showcasing it. Greinke seems to be in favor of staying away from the larger markets as he's a very personal guy who doesn't like the attention, so unfortunately, his biggest opponent will likely remain his own team from now until the Royals get a better lineup.

Runner-Up: Felix Hernandez—P—Seattle Mariners
Who'll Likely Win: Zack Greinke—P—Kansas City Royals
Pre-Season Pick: Roy Halladay—P—Toronto Blue Jays

Award Predictions: Rookie of the Year

Josh Johnson — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 03:31:00 -0400

National League

The NL had a few rookies make big impacts on their teams this season. Off of memory, I can't remember a year in which a league featured so many rookies that should be mentioned for Rookie of the Year. To me, there are eight candidates that someone could make a compelling argument for.

Tommy Hanson - P - Atlanta Braves
Andrew McCutchen - OF - Pittsburgh Pirates
Chris Coghlan - OF - Florida Marlins
J.A. Happ - P - Philadelphia Phillies
Garrett Jones - 1B/OF - Pittsburgh Pirates
Casey McGehee - 2B/3B - Milwaukee Brewers
Randy Wells - P - Chicago Cubs
Dexter Fowler - OF - Colorado Rockies

But to me, one guy stood out more than any of the others. While Andrew McCutchen, J.A. Happ and Chris Coghlan seem to be the popular choices amongst most predictors, I think that one guy is being over-looked. And that is Garrett Jones of the Pittsburgh Pirates, my choice for NL Rookie of the Year.

Unlike the rest of the players (besides Casey McGehee), Jones never carried the illustrious "Top Prospect" status that these other players have at one point or another. He was drafted by the Atlanta Braves in 1999 and later cut after posting marginal numbers in three rookie ball seasons. He was signed a few days later by the Minnesota Twins where he spent seven years in the organization, eventually making his Major League debut in 2007. But with guys like Michael Cuddyer (RF), Jason Kubel (DH), and Justin Morneau (1B) blocking him, Jones never got an opportunity to do much of anything for the Twins. He failed to make it back to the Majors in 2008 which eventually lead to the Twins cutting him after the season. The Pirates then stepped up and gave the (now) 28-year-old Jones a shot.

He started this season with the Indianapolis Indians in the Independent League, the same league he's started at every year since 2005. He played well and was eventually called-up by the Pirates in late June to take the place of Nyjer Morgan who was traded to the Washington Nationals. With McCutchen, the Pirates' top prospect, handed the reigns to center field and three other players looking for playing time in the outfield, it looked as though Jones was going to have to earn his playing time.

But thankfully, the Pirates decided to start him everyday to see just what exactly they had in Jones, and he surpassed any expectations the Pirates had of him. He hit ten home runs in the month of July, earning himself NL Rookie-of-the-Month honors, before finishing off the season with 21 total home runs in just 314 at-bats. He also helped make a futile Pirates team fun to watch, which in itself is saying a lot.

In no way should any Twins fans feel upset over the Twins not holding onto this guy. While I'm sure many would have liked to see him stick around, I really can't blame the organization for cutting him, especially when we have an All-Star first baseman and (at least at the time) five outfielders competing for four spots (DH). Jones just needed the opportunity, which I'm glad the Pirates gave him. Hopefully he can become a cornerstone player for the (always) re-building Pirates.

Runner-Up: Casey McGehee - 2B/3B - Milwaukee Brewers
Who'll Likely Win: Chris Coghlan - OF - Florida Marlins
Pre-Season Pick: Cameron Maybin - OF - Florida Marlins

American League

The AL also features an octuplet of deserving rookies. Although the NL's crop of rookies may have put up more impressive numbers, this A.L. group featured more high profile prospects including five players from my pre-season Top 50 MiLB Prospects for 2009. Here are my most deserving American League rookies.

Rick Porcello - P - Detroit Tigers
Gordon Beckham - 3B - Chicago White Sox
Brett Anderson - P - Oakland Athletics
Elvis Andrus - SS - Texas Rangers
Matt Wieters - C - Baltimore Orioles
Nolan Reimold - OF - Baltimore Orioles
Andrew Bailey - P - Oakland Athletics
Jeff Niemann - P - Tampa Bay Rays

The first five of those players all appeared in the pre-season list, and all lived up to their hype in their rookie seasons. To me, there are two guys that are pretty equally deserving. One being Andrew Bailey of the Oakland Athletics and the other being Gordon Beckham of the Chicago White Sox.

To me, you couldn't go wrong with picking either. Beckham did great things for the White Sox after being recalled in June. He hit for power, drove in runs and filled a position of weakness for the White Sox. In just 378 at-bats the former Georgia Bulldog hit .270/.347/.460 with 14 home runs and 63 RBI. Had Beckham played the entire season, he likely would have finished with somewhere around 20 home runs and 100 RBI. But unfortunately for him, he didn't, which is a huge reason why Bailey to me is the most deserving.

Closing out a game is a high profile job in Major League Baseball. Generally teams will pay top dollar for a guy that comes in to throw sometimes just a handful of pitches to earn a stat that some believe is the most overrated stat in the game. But to me, it requires something special to close out games night-in and night-out and while I do think that closers are paid too much for the amount of work they put in, I do understand why teams would want to invest in a player that does it well.

Bailey stepped in early this season and surpassed 2008 standout Brad Ziegler and veteran Michael Wuertz on the depth charts. Bailey, with no MLB experience, handled the job as well as any rookie could. He blew three of his first five save opportunities, but from June on, he was 24 for 25 in save opportunities and posted a 1.58 ERA. He also struck out 91 batters in just 83 1/3 innings on the season. Bailey may not be considered an elite closer by many just yet, but he's certainly not far behind. Here is how Bailey would have ranked in many stat categories this season amongst other closers in MLB (and for the sake of the argument, I'm only counting guys who attempted at least 20 saves, which would be 29 players):

Saves: 20th
ERA: 3rd
WHIP: 1st
BAA: T-1st
Strikeouts: 3rd
Walks: T-11th

Obviously, having only 50 save opportunities as a team hurts Bailey. The average team in baseball this season had 60 save opportunities, which would put the Athletics well below the average. Had the team been closer to the top of the standings, it's obvious that more save opportunities would have been presented to Bailey. But regardless, Bailey was unbelievable this season and deserves this award.

Runner-Up: Gordon Beckham - 3B - Chicago White Sox
Who'll Likely Win: Elvis Andrus - SS - Texas Rangers
Pre-Season Pick: Matt Wieters - C - Baltimore Orioles

Unbelievable: Minnesota Twins Win One Game Playoff, AL Central

Josh Johnson — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 02:57:00 -0400

I'm still speechless.

My arm hurts from waving my Homer Hanky, my clothes smell like I sat inside a cockpit for two days (or how I'd imagine your clothes would smell under that circumstance), my throat hurts from yelling at the top of my lungs, I evidently missed a (surprise) mid-term while skipping class and I probably won't be able to fall asleep tonight because my heart rate hasn't dropped to my normal state since I left.

But could you honestly ask for it any other way?

GO TWINS!

Minnesota Twins: They Never Quit on Us

Josh Johnson — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 01:25:00 -0400

Last year, after 162 games were over, the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox had to determine the division winner by having a one-game playoff in Chicago. A year later, the Twins and Detroit Tigers find themselves in the same situation. But unlike last year, the Twins hold a significant advantage heading into Tuesday's season-deciding game.

As some may remember, the venue of the Twins and White Sox playoff game was decided by the flip of a coin.

But soon after the Twins lost the coin flip and then to the White Sox, Major League Baseball implemented a rule change which stated that the venue of any one-game playoffs will not be by the sheer dumb luck of a coin flip, it will be by who has won the season series, which in both last year's case and this year's case would be the Twins.

Since the Twins beat the Tigers in 10 of 18 games this season, the Twins will host the Tigers on Tuesday at the Metrodome. Under normal circumstances, the one-game playoff would be held the day after the season ends.

But as many know, the Metrodome is holding a different event on Monday (I'm not going to even mention it, as I'm sure everyone already knows), which is why the Twins and Tigers will play on Tuesday, one day before the start of the playoffs.

In their effort to tame the Tigers, the Twins will send Scott Baker, the undisputed ace of the Twins' pitching staff. After a poor start to the season, Baker has settled in and has given the Twins a great chance to win time after time.

In fact, since the start of June, Baker is 13-3 with a 3.62 ERA in 23 starts. Baker's repertoire features a great fastball, a slider, curveball and a change-up. According to Fangraphs.com, the effectiveness of Baker's fastball is behind that of only Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander's in the American League, two Cy Young candidates.

In turn, the Tigers will try to stop the streaking Twins by sending Rookie-of-the-Year candidate Rick Porcello to the mound. At 165 innings, Porcello is over the Tigers' desired inning count on the season, which along with his overall experience makes some wonder if the 20-year-old is ready for such a big game.

The other viable possibility is to have Edwin Jackson start on three-days rest, but nothing has been suggested to make me believe the Tigers are actually considering that option.

Porcello has made four starts this season against the Twins, but despite having an ERA of 3.09, he's won just once while losing twice. Both losses came on the turf at the Metrodome, a surface on which he's struggled on all season.

On top of that, Porcello will be responsible for halting a fired-up Twins offense that has scored 36 runs in four straight victories, lead by the efforts of Jason Kubel and Delmon Young. The two corner outfielders have gone 15 for 33 with six home runs and 19 RBI in the four game win streak.

And luckily for the Twins, both have had success this season against Porcello. The two are a combined 12 for 20 with three doubles against the Tigers youngster.

Despite nearly everyone counting them out just a few weeks ago, the Twins have proven just why they're one of the best organizations in baseball. They have shown a resilience that other teams could only dream of and even more importantly have given their fans a team to be proud of.

Even when there were overwhelming odds against them, and just about all of us gave up on them, they never quit on us.

Minnesota Twins: Great News During Rough Times

Josh Johnson — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 01:00:00 -0400

Reports came in Tuesday night that Dominican prospect Miguel Angel Sano and the Twins have agreed terms on a contract. On the surface, to many, this isn't a very big deal at all. But in reality, it's huge news for the Minnesota Twins and I think Twins fans should be well aware at what this signing means for the Twins.

It also couldn't come at a better time as the Twins struggle to stay afloat in the American League Central.

Sano is reportedly being handed a $3.15 million signing bonus, a solid dollar amount for both Sano and the Twins. Speculation mounted over Sano's true age prior to July 2, the first day International free agents are free to sign with potential ball clubs.

The speculation grew into an investigation by Major League Baseball that ultimately has come up inconclusive. After tests showed that he was between the ages of 16 and 17, not much new has been reported since the start of the investigation (unless of course, I just missed it).

With an investigation over his head, Sano's projected cost plummeted. At the price that Sano signed, it was a good deal for him, although probably not the deal he was originally looking for, and it was also a great deal for the Twins. And although the investigation may not be completely over, the contract is contingent on Sano's ability to acquire a work visa, something he can't do if he's caught lying about his age.

Minnesota is getting a player who has drawn comparison to Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez and Evan Longoria to name a few. Even though comparing a teenager that hasn't picked up a ball in the United States is beyond worthless, it does show the skillset that Sano has.

At 6'3'' and 190 lbs., Sano has great potential in his frame and although he's currently listed as a shortstop, he's expected to switch to either third base or the outfield as he continues to fill out. Meanwhile, Sano is coming to an organization lacking a top prospect, meaning he'll likely receive great treatment once he's over here.

However, I don't expect him to be in the Majors in two years like he's hoping. Judging by the way the Twins have handled other prospects over the years, I'm guessing he'll spend at least a full year at each stop, meaning he'll make it to Minnesota around his 22nd birthday.

But being as the Twins have never spent this much on a prospect not-named Joe Mauer, I guess nothing is a certainty. (For a nice video of Sano, click here.)

This move is just one of several albeit surprising moves by the Twins' management this summer. During the draft, some questioned the team's reasoning for drafting four college pitchers in the first three rounds, especially when this organization hasn't necessarily had problems developing pitchers through the years. It immediately turned out alright as three of the pitchers combined to go 4-0 with a 1.92 ERA in 42 innings this summer.

The first round pick, Kyle Gibson, signed late but was a top five talent prior to fracturing his forearm before the draft. Gibson signed late, but his signing was a huge win for the Twins as Gibson always had the option of going back to college if he didn't like his contract.

The Twins in the past have stayed away from amateur players (primarily in the draft) that could demand top dollar amounts. For instance, the organization drafted Ben Revere in 2007, which in hindsight has worked out great, but is a move clearly motivated by finances. While many teams draft with the player's signability in mind, the Twins (at least in the past) have seemed to use that as their starting point in drafts.

Another surprise came when the Twins inked outfield prospect Max Kepler to a deal for $800,000. It was the largest signing bonus given to any prospect not from the United States or Latin America. But that price might be very well worth it as Kepler's been talked about as the highest rated prospect to come from Europe in...well...ever.

Kepler, like Sano, is listed around 6'3'' and 190 lbs. and, he, too is considered a five-tool prospect. Both will also likely start their professional careers with the Gulf Coast League Twins in 2010.

The Twins' management have been very aggressive this summer in signing amateur free agents, and it probably is fair to say that the management will remain aggressive this offseason whether it be in free agency or in trades.

Bill Smith hasn't had the greatest success from the players he's signed, but you can't knock his lack of trying. When everyone became upset at the trade deadline for not addressing either the rotation or bullpen, he pulled through and acquired Jon Rauch, Ron Mahay and Carl Pavano, three players that have played big roles for us down the stretch.

In no way am I suggesting that Smith deserves a medal of honor for these moves, but I love the recent moves he's made. And although he did give them the contracts, you can't blame Smith if these prospects don't work out.

The bottom line is that he's being aggressive in an area we generally aren't, and although we all want that money to be going towards high-buck free agents, keep in mind that Nick Punto is making $4 million next season while Sano will be making $3.15 over the course of the next few years.

While that's a bad example (as Punto's contract is pretty horrid and you can't use that as a reason this is a good deal), the bottom line is that this could be a great investment for the Twins and I hope that they'll remain aggressive in years to come while pursuing amateur free agents.

Showdown in Motown

Josh Johnson — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 23:00:00 -0400

The Twins took two of three games against the Kansas City Royals, while the Detroit Tigers lost two of three to the White Sox, allowing the Twins to pull within two games of the division-leading Tigers.

The Twins are playing their best baseball of the season this month, while the Tigers continue to take a sharp nosedive.

After winning the first six games of the month, the Tigers are now 8-11 since September eighth. In that span, they've been outscored 84-to-98 and have scored two or fewer runs in six of the 19 games.

Meanwhile, since September 7th (their last 19 games), the Twins are 13-6 and have outscored their opponents 103 to 73.

The Twins are 'clicking' both at the plate and on the mound, which is completely the opposite for the Tigers. Joe Christensen from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune posted a possible outcome table.

And as you can tell, the Twins need a series victory in order to have a realistic shot at winning the division. If they tie, they'll need all the luck in the world to win. And of course if they lose three or four games, the Twins will be eliminated.

The Twins and Tigers faced off against one another at the Metrodome two weekends ago, where the Twins won two of three.

Unforunately, they aren't at home and will have to try and win at Comerica Park, a place the Tigers have won 65% of their games played there. The Twins, on the other hand, have a winning percentage of 47% on the road this season.

On paper, the pitching matchups sure look to favor the Tigers. Even without Edwin Jackson starting, the Tigers have their Cy Young candidate Justin Verlander starting on Wednesday and their Rookie of the Year candidate Rick Porcello going on Monday.

But Carl Pavano has been a Tiger killer this season, and Brian Duensing has been outstanding since joining the rotation. So couple them with the teams best two pitchers, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn, gives me reason to feel optimistic about the matchups.

The Tigers' offense is strong, but the Twins have been getting great production from their eight and nine hitters in the lineup.

Both Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert continue to swing hot bats this month, despite being despicable at the plate throughout the season.

Tolbert has been hitting primarily eighth and playing third base since joining the lineup and is hitting .381/.395/.500 in 42 September at-bats.

Punto has been playing second base and hitting ninth, but has a .310/.437/.397 hitting line through 58 at-bats this month.

Both were big reasons why Denard Span drove in six runs on Saturday.

Two players the Twins will surely miss in this series will be Joe Crede and Justin Morneau. The two have been Tiger mashers throughout their careers, but both are out for the season with injuries.

Instead, the Twins will rely on both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel (besides Joe Mauer, of course) to carry the load in the middle-of-the-lineup. While Cuddyer's having a great month, he hasn't put up great numbers against Detroit throughout his career.

Kubel has hit terribly all month, which could be of result from him playing in right field on a near day-to-day basis. He is actually zero for his last 13.

Thankfully the Twins have Span, Mauer and even Delmon Young who have all hit well against the Tigers.

The Twins have been playing great these past few weeks, but the pressure is definitely on right now. The Tigers have a lot of things that could give them an edge here and there, but if the Twins continue to play the way they have, it should be a good week for Twins baseball.

***

On the side...

I've been slackin' on the blog as of late. I can't promise more frequent posts in the near future, but I'm definitely not giving up on the site (in case anyone was wondering).

But I do have a few things to mention.

Chris Jaffe from The Hardball Times wrote a great article last week in which he lists his 10 greatest games in the Metrodome. If you read the comment section, I felt there was one more worth mentioning. But it's a great article and one I hope everyone takes a few minutes to read. While the Metrodome hasn't been the best home, it's certainly had some great memories.

Andrew Kneeland is now blogging at TwinsTarget.com. In fact, he's already posted his first One-on-One with Dan Osterbrock which I hope everyone checks out. David Gorski is now blogging at Twins Fix (Andrew's old site) and is doing a great job so far.

Seth Stohs has been hosting a live podcast almost every night this past week. So if you're looking for some great Twins talk, make sure to check out some of his past shows.

Brian Pietrzak wrote a great review of The Machine, written by everybody's favorite writer, Joe Posanski. I already have my copy but I am going to finish up The Soul of Baseball (also written by Posnanski) first.

And finally, while he's been blogging for a few weeks now, I wanted to mention that Shawn Berg has started a blog called On the road with... Make sure to head over there now as he's posting his good and bad Twins memories.

And finally, you can find me on Twitter at Twitter.com/JoshsThoughts or feel free to e-mail me at jajohnson021@yahoo.com

The Twins' Outfield Dilemma

Josh Johnson — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 02:31:00 -0400

Ron Gardenhire recently talked about his logjam in the outfield and what he plans to do with it in 2010.

Gardenhire admitted that it's been a challenge this season to give everyone enough playing time and said that he's tired of shifting leadoff hitter Denard Span around the outfield.

Thus far, Span has logged 1,126 1/3 innings in the outfield this season (39 percent in left field, 43 percent in center, and the final 18 percent in right). All in all, Span has a UZR/150 of 0.6, down from his UZR/150 of 3.9 in 2008.

Offensively, Span is very valuable and there's a reason Gardenhire is feeling the need to give him a "set" position. He is 10th in the American League with a .389 OBP, which also ranks him third in the majors among leadoff hitters. Span also takes (on average) nearly four pitches per plate appearance, which is near the top among leadoff hitters.

There's no question that Span is an integral part to this ball club's success. The question is, where do you play him?

Gardenhire reportedly hinted at leaving Span in center field next season, but he quickly mentioned that it'll depend on who is still with the ball club, leading us to assume that either Carlos Gomez or Delmon Young will be traded this offseason.

Over the last two seasons, I've let my "favorite" be known.

But right now, I'm having a hard time choosing between which I'd prefer to keep. While I still believe one player has more potential than the other, I also recognize that one provides a valuable commodity to this ball club that is useful regardless of his putrid offense.

It seems as though many of Young's problems stem from poor mechanics. That he hasn't fixed those mechanics leads me to believe that he's not going to turn it around unless I use the age old excuse that he still has a lot of untapped potential.

Young is now three full seasons into his MLB career and is regressing instead of progressing. Obviously, it's too early to abandon ship on a recently turned 24-year-old, but it's getting harder and harder to support him.

As for Gomez, his defense is the reason the Twins traded for him, fully knowing his offense is very (very) raw. I have thought for a while that Gomez should be sent back to Triple-A to work on pitch recognition and just the 'basics' at the plate (as in not swinging at a pitch coming near your head, how to lay down a bunt, etc.).

But that obviously wasn't in the Twins' plans and they now have wasted an entire year for both Young and Gomez. What exactly has either of them gained from sharing at-bats and starts this season?

At 23 years old, they should just be reaching the Major League (a problem that was out of the Twins' hands). But the Twins felt it was more valuable to have both play only three days a week while the other just sits...and does nothing.

Although Gomez had a solid triple-slash line this spring, the Twins were delusional if they felt that he had completely turned the corner after last season. Even so, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt since nobody knew how Span would play after a terrible spring and seemingly came out of nowhere this year.

But don't you think that after the month of April in which Gomez hit .195/.250/.293 in 16 games was enough to finally make the (right) move?

Of course not.

Instead, the Twins have made both young, raw, yet gifted players sit on the bench and learn the game by watching. Unless they're trying to mold these guys into coaches, I don't see much benefit from a hitter sitting on the bench and not getting regular at-bats.

Gardenhire throwing them batting practice is not enough, especially for aggressive hitters like Young and Gomez.

The Twins shouldn't be even faced with this dilemma.

Instead, they should have let Gomez and Young both have the playing time they deserve and after the season, move one of them. It's likely that one of the two would have stepped up if given the proper opportunity. Instead, the Twins are now faced with deciding on which one to give up on.

If both played great, we'd still likely have to move one, but it wouldn't be near the dilemma it is now. This is an especially difficult situation now because both have little trade value and the Twins will be abandoning ship on a young player with little-to-no return value.

The Twins shot themselves in the foot on this one.

An early look into the not-so-distant future.

Josh Johnson — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 01:40:00 -0400

Several weeks ago, before I lost all of my free time to school, I answered a few questions that Peter Bourgeois sent in to me.

Since then, the Twins have been very busy signing draft picks, upgrading their bullpen and pulling back within manageable distance of the division crown when, at the time, it looked as though they were done for.

Unfortunately, the Twins are now sitting five games behind the Tigers with just 29 games remaining, seven of which are against Detroit.

But even with a good month left of baseball to be played, everyone is gearing up for what could be the most exciting offseason in Minnesota Twins history. Despite a fairly weak free agent class, the Twins will have money to spend.

The question is, "how much?"

Last week, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune hosted a live chat, and this caught my eye:

12:15 [Comment From Next Year]
How do the Twins improve the club for next year and will they spend any of that new stadium money?
12:16

La Velle:
They better. With raises through long-term deals and arbitration,the payroll should go up. I had a conversation recently with a Twins official who estimated the payroll could top $90 million next year and head toward $95-100M.

I've speculated on this in the past. The Twins have a similar market (actually, if we're getting down to the specifics, it's larger) to that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Obviously, just because they spend money doesn't mean we have to, but I've always felt that the Twins could spend at least as much as them.

After all, the Twins are going to be moving into a new stadium which will be packed full of Twins fans almost every night, much like the Cardinals and their new stadium.

But La Velle hearing from a 'Twins official' is probably a good indicator that other people feel this way as well. While I'll still be surprised to see the Twins raise their payroll nearly $30 million in just a few months, I do think that over the next three or four years, $90 or even northwards of $100 million isn't completely out of the question.

As for the 2010 season, here's how the roster looks (please note, these are just my calculations and shouldn't be taken as 100% accurate, or for that matter, anywhere near that):

Hitters:
C: Joe Mauer - $12,500,000
C: Jose Morales - $400,000
1B: Justin Morneau - $14,000,000
2B: Alexi Casilla - $460,000
IF: Brendan Harris - $1,250,000 (Arbitration guess)
IF: Nick Punto - $4,000,000
IF: Matt Tolbert - $460,000
IF: Brian Buscher - $460,000
OF: Delmon Young - $1,700,000 (Arbitration guess)
OF: Denard Span - $460,000
OF: Michael Cuddyer - $8,500,000
OF: Carlos Gomez - $460,000
DH: Jason Kubel - $4,100,000

Other possibilities: Jason Pridie - $400,000, Trevor Plouffe - $400,000,
Hitting total: $49,550,000

Pitchers:
SP: Scott Baker - $3,000,000
SP: Nick Blackburn - $460,000
SP: Kevin Slowey - $460,000
SP: Francisco Liriano - $1,250,000 (Arbitration guess)
SP: Glen Perkins - $1,250,000 (Arbitration guess)

Other possibilities: Brian Duensing - $400,000, Jeff Manship - $400,000, Anthony Swarzak - $400,000

RP: Joe Nathan - $11,250,000
RP: Jon Rauch - $2,900,000
RP: Matt Guerrier - $2,500,000 (Arbitration guess)
RP: Jesse Crain - $2,250,000 (Arbitration guess)
RP: Jose Mijares - $460,000
RP: Boof Bonser - $1,250,000 (Arbitration guess)
RP: Pat Neshek - $1,250,000 (Arbitration guess)

Other possibilities: Bobby Keppel - $460,000

Pitching total: $29,940,000

Obviously, not all of the serf contracts are quite accurate and the arbitration guesses are in fact just guesses.

But as you can see, the Twins are already close to $80,000,000 ($79,490,000), which isn't including any free agent pick ups or taking into factor any extensions they may give to some of their current players. With Joe Mauer expecting to earn a substantial pay raise, it's doubtful that the Twins add any elite players this offseason.

But even if they could afford an elite player, I would be surprised to see the Twins go out and sign one. One thing I've come to expect over the years while following the Twins is that what you think will happen probably won't.

Now that's kind of a vague statement, but it is true. When I have figured the Twins would finally splurge in free agency, they have sat back and done nothing. When I expected them to do something (anything) at the trade deadline, they have sat back and done nothing. And when I don't expect them to do anything, they go out and make a run at players that would change the whole dynamic of the ball club.

And for that reason, I can't and won't get my hopes up that the Twins will add anything this offseason.

Of course, the Twins could very well trade a few players, which I truly believe they will, but who and what is a complete mystery and something that will be discussed at another time.

And looking early, here are the key areas of concern that the Twins need to address this offseason:

Starting pitching: The Twins' Achilles heal this season has been their failure to execute (both at the plate and on the mound). But the Twins' pitching staff has given up so many runs this season that I really can't blame the offense for not scoring when they are currently ranked eighth in the Major Leagues in runs scored, opposed to the pitching staff having the 24th worst ERA.

While they have scored 668 runs this season, the pitching staff has given up 657. Other than in walks, the Twins' pitching staff is below American League average in nearly every category.

Middle infield: It's no surprise to anyone that the biggest question mark regarding the offense is the hitters occupying both second base and shortstop. The Twins' second base play this year has been atrocious.

So far, the Twins have fielded a .201/.285/.260 hitting line from their second basemen this season, by far the worst in the Major Leagues. Shortstop hasn't been nearly as bad, but that's not really saying a lot.

The Twins have gotten terrible production from their shortstops this season. Both areas should be addressed.

It's easy to point fingers at Bill Smith and co. for not equipping Ron Gardenhire and the coaching staff with the appropriate players to win this season, but his hands are kind of tied.

The 2008 Twins were a great story. Nobody expected anything from the team after losing players like Johan Santana, Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva to the ever powerful color of green, but the pitching staff turned out to be outstanding, while the offense was incredible.

I don't blame Smith for not acquiring a big bat or another pitcher last offseason, because really, they didn't look as though they necessarily needed that much help. I thought the acquisition of Joe Crede was more than enough to keep the offense atop of the American League ranks while the pitching staff continued to develop.

Only, the pitching staff and for some part, the offense, got off to an unstable start and the offense was the only thing to finally figure things out. The pitching staff that once looked to be one of the best in the league quickly turned into one of the worst.

But nobody can be blamed for that. It's hard to predict pitching, especially young pitching. Smith did help bolster our bullpen, which is still rocky at times, but looks set for the future.

This offseason, while I don't think the Twins will have the means to go out and acquire a top-end free agent, I do expect them to improve each area of weakness this team has. Last offseason was too hard to predict.

We had one real weakness at third base, which he ultimately (later than we probably would have hoped), found a solution. The rest of the squad looked solid heading into the season.

Was it a Championship team? I don't know. It was strong enough to make the playoffs, that's for sure.

I expect things to be a little more active this offseason. Again, I honestly don't expect John Lackey or Matt Holiday to be Twins come next Spring, but could they acquire someone like J.J. Hardy or Mark DeRosa? It's at least more realistic.

The Twins are currently hovering around the 15th worst record in baseball, which as a Twins fan, is something we pay close attention to every year. If the Twins have one of the 15th worst records in baseball, their first round draft pick would not be surrendered if they chose to sign a Type-A free agent.

At this point, that probably wouldn't be a bad thing to be in. The Twins are losing ground in the standings, and although they keep holding on, at this point, it's very unlikely that they'll make the playoffs.

While I'm not advocating that they throw games for the sole purpose to finish in the bottom-half of the standings, it wouldn't be the worst thing either.

But obviously, it's a pretty safe assumption that nothing will get done until number seven is signed, and while I hope it happens early, I'm unfortunately expecting it to drag on throughout the offseason, which could give the front office plenty of excuses why they're not more aggressive on the market.

I've grown more and more pessimistic over the summer and while I still love the Twins, I don't know if I have full faith in the front office or coaching staff to get this team to where it should be, which is at the top of the standings every year.

The Twins might have the best hitting combination in baseball, and one of the best overall players that has put on a jersey in this era, yet we have a hard time staying above .500, and we play in a division with two deadbeat teams and no team that is stellar by any standards.

Something needs to change, and I truly hope that something happens this offseason to instill some of the faith that I may have in this franchise.

Minnesota Twins: Answering a Few Questions...

Josh Johnson — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 03:22:00 -0400

Over the weekend, I was e-mailed a few questions from long-time reader Peter Bourgeois. But instead of e-mailing him back the questions, we both thought it'd be a fine idea to just let me answer them here, since they are all fairly "hot topics" regarding the Twins.

So that's what I'll do. And just note, these are my opinion but I do encourage people to disagree with me.

***

What should be done with the rotation?

Right now, I think that both Nick Blackburn and Anthony Swarzak need to be taken out of the rotation in favor of Jeff Manship and Brian Duensing. And I also think that Francisco Liriano's spot is also in limbo, but I have no idea who should replace him.

Kevin Mulvey? Armando Gabino? I have no idea. I just know that both Blackburn and Swarzak need to be replaced immediately.

Blackburn has been getting annihilated out there lately and Swarzak is definitely showing his rookie stripes. While I don't know either Manship or Duensing being long-term answers to the rotational woes, I just think that it's gotten to the point (if not past it) that something needs to be done and I really don't see how either Duensing or Manship will be worse than either Swarzak or Blackburn right now. Both have been terrible as of late.

There are players going through waivers. Should the Twins take a chance at a guy like Aaron Harang? I think so, but only if we pull within reach of the division. If not, while I like him, his salary doesn't make much sense to the Twins.

***

What's the latest with Kyle Gibson? Should they even waste their time with him?

Kyle Gibson remains unsigned and the Twins have until 11:00 PM (CST) tonight to get a deal done otherwise he'll likely be returning to the University of Missouri for his senior season. He'd then reenter the draft next June.

By all accounts, it sounds like both sides want a deal to get done, but it's also being reported that they remained about $1 million apart. Gibson is looking for something around $2.5 million, double of what the Twins could be doubling if they try to adhere to the suggested slot-suggestion of $1.287 million.

Parker Hageman wrote a good post last week regarding Gibson and thinks the Twins should stick to their guns with their proposal as Gibson still has some worrisome mechanical flaws that stem beyond his fractured forearm.

While it's easy to agree with him, I personally would still like to see the Twins sign him. He's a high-upside pitcher and with the current state of the Twins' rotation, I think the Twins need a top prospect like Gibson.

I also think the Twins should have been prepared for this to happen when drafting him and if they weren't prepared, then quite frankly I'm a little disappointed.

As soon as his arm was healthy and he began throwing, the Twins should have known that he'd be asking for above what MLB recommends at the 22nd pick.

The Twins probably tried signing him immediately but I'm sure Gibson wanted to wait. The Twins probably should have been prepared for that when drafting him.

But honestly, I don't entirely blame either side if a deal doesn't get done. If he's signed for $2.5 million, that'd be tied for the third largest signing bonus in Twins history.

But the Twins have gone above the recommendations before and I'd like to see them get a deal done. But I do think that $2.5 million is a bit high and if that's what he's demanding (and not backing down from) then I won't be upset if the Twins don't sign him.

I know many will whine about them failing to sign a Type-A free agent last off-season, like Orlando Cabrera or Orlando Hudson, and that they should reward fans with signing the player they drafted, but I don't think that's that big of a deal.

The Twins took a chance but if the player's demands are outrageous, which I think Gibson's could be considered borderline, then you can't fault them for not meeting them.

We'll see what happens. While I'd like to see a deal get worked out, I can't say I'm entirely optimistic and I also would like to see the Twins and Gibson meet in the middle.

Also, make sure to check out Alex Halsted's interview with Gibson that he posted last week at his brand new blog, A Voice From Twins Territory.

***

Who should the Twins target this off-season? Both in free agency and/or via trades.

Peter, you must know how much I love to speculate. I will have to take longer to think about this but expect something up this week.

But be advised, I'll be speculating on this from about the middle of September through December/January so you'll definitely get a lot of 'who should the Twins go after' talk in the next few months. And really, it's one of my favorite things to do.

I know the possibility of any of it happening is minimal (if even that's an understatement), but it's still fun to be GM in your own mind.

***

When will you be doing your next Top 50 Twins Prospects list?

This winter. I'd like to do them multiple times a year but I think at that point they're just power rankings (which I guess the same case could be made for any prospect list, and) which are always fun to read but it takes too much time and I like that 'element of surprise' as to who my top prospect is going to be.

But mostly just because I don't have enough time to do them.

***

Is Joe Mauer the MVP?

Up to this point, absolutely. But for more on this, I'd just advise you to read these three columns:

Mauer Power - By Joe Posnanski
Has Tex locked up MVP already? - By Rob Neyer
Dear AL East Fans: Don't Kid Yourselves, Joe Mauer is the AL MVP - By Dan Wade

All three of these pieces basically describe exactly how I feel about it.

***

Speaking of Mauer, will the Twins re-sign him this this off-season?

I'd like to think so. The Twins know his value and know that if they wait until next year to try and re-sign him right before he's about to test free agency, the 'big fish' (Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, etc.) will definitely contend with whatever offer the Twins try to give him.

And really, I wouldn't blame him if he chose to go to a team that is more committed to winning than what the Twins might be. The Twins seem committed to winning, but I don't know if they're fully committed to winning a championship.

I know some would think, "that's ridiculous to say" which may be true, but I've yet to be proven otherwise. The team knew heading into this season that they had a great foundation and were close to making the playoffs the previous season, but they made little improvements and the ball club ultimately took a step back.

I'm not blaming the front office for the team (in short) sucking this year, but I don't think they really were committed to winning a championship with what they did last off-season.

It'll cost a lot, but the Twins need to re-sign Mauer. And that should be the most important thing on their agenda this off-season. I think that re-signing Mauer will immediately make the off-season a success.

I just hope they get it done early and don't give the fans yet another excuse to why they don't go out and make a big acquisition. But I'm sure that's what will happen.

***

Finally, (the million dollar question), are the Twins done?

Eeesh.

That's a tough question for some. Is there a possibility? Absolutely. But will they? Now, before I answer that, I want to stress that I'm pretty optimistic by default and always try to see things from both sides of the fence.

I've learned over the years that baseball can take many unprecedented twists and turns throughout the season and anything can happen. But like Aaron Gleeman said today on his blog, it's really hard to envision the Twins doing anything (regardless of past success and an easy schedule) with the way this team is playing right now.

The pitching sucks, really bad right now and there's really not enough in-house options to right the ship at this point.

The offense has been about the same as last year (averaging around five runs per game) but if the offense and pitching aren't in sync, it's hard to believe they'll be able to make up six games right now. So to answer your question, I believe that they are done.

I know the players still want the organization to do anything/everything possible to let them win this season, but if you've seen this team in the last month, do you really envision them as a playoff team let alone as a World Series contender?

I don't see them as either and I woudn't mind seeing them play some of their September call-ups more than usual to prepare for next season (i.e. Danny Valencia).

I will note, one bright spot about finishing low in the standings is that if they're in the bottom 15, they won't have to give up their top pick in next year's draft to sign a Type-A free agent.

Right now, the Twins would have the 12th pick in the draft. And if they are within the protected top 15 picks, they really have no reason to not sign anyone they want this off-season.

***

I want to thank Peter for sending me these questions and I'd also like to encourage readers to send in questions at any time.

I might not dedicate an entire post to them, but sometimes they'll spark interest and could give me an idea on what to write about as the dog days of August and a frustrating team are certainly making it hard to write constructive posts every day.

Minnesota Twins Rundown: August 14, 2009

Josh Johnson — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 03:02:00 -0400

• As we all know, the Twins fell to the Royals this week 1-2 and are now five games back in the season. I'm not optimistic that the ball club is going to win this division as I still personally believe that the White Sox are a much better team.

But, I'm not going to throw in the towel just yet.

There's still a lot of baseball left and a sweep can bring us right back in it. And don't forget, we still have 13 games against the White Sox and Tigers including a four game series from Sept. 28-Oct. 1.

It obviously doesn't look good, but I still haven't been able to find it within me to pull the plug on the season. I don't care what anyone thinks, I just can't do it yet.

• As if you haven't heard, the Twins made a ton of moves on Wednesday. The most exciting to me is obviously the Jeff Manship promotion. Manship will be taking over for Glen Perkins in the bullpen and will likely remain in the long-relief role for the immediate future.

He's one of the better pitching prospects in the organization and can hopefully be a reliable arm that can give the Twins multiple innings per appearance. With the way our bullpen has been this season, we really need it.

• This move was just the beginning of an entire chain of moves throughout the Minor Leagues. Most notably, Anthony Slama finally got the promotion Twins fans have been calling for all season. He's taking Manship's spot on the Red Wings pitching staff.

Slama lead the Eastern league in both appearances and saves prior to the promotion. But at 25-years old, the reluctance to promote him both this season and last season has made Twins fans go crazy and I personally don't blame them for voicing their displeasure on this one.

I usually don't question many of the organizations philosophies, and I understand that they want a player to go through the ups and downs at each stop, but it's almost as though they've completely neglecting the fact that he went to college.

They moved him quickly at first and slammed on the breaks when he got in Ft. Myers where he posted nearly identical numbers that he posted in Beloit where he only spent about a 1/3 of the time.

• Taking Slama's spot on the Rock Cats roster is Loek Van Mil. Yes, the 7'1'' Van Mil. He needs to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from the Rule V Draft and the Twins probably wanted to see him get a few innings in Double-A to justify their decision.

Van Mil definitely deserved this promotion. He's posted solid numbers throughout his Minor League career but struggles with his control quite a bit. He's still considered a "work in progress" but he's definitely got potential. Hopefully he continues to put up good numbers while cutting back on the walks.

• With an open roster spot on the Miracle roster, Bobby Lanigan got the promotion to Ft. Myers. Lanigan has been very inconsistent this season but has good control and gets a lot of ground ball outs.

I think this is a good promotion, but a case could certainly have been made for Brad Tippett who has been the best pitcher for the Snappers all season, which isn't saying much but at the same time it still is.

• And the Twins weren't done. Brad Stillings took Lanigan's roster spot in Beloit and both Kelvin Mota and Jhon Garcia were promoted from the Gulf Coast League to the Appalachian League.

• Aaron Gleeman posted a video of Nick Nelson rapping to "Sweet Home Alabama" like Eminem did in "8 Mile." One word: priceless. And for those wondering, yes, bloggers are that cool.

• Seth Stohs posted his updated Top 50 Twins Prospects list. It's awesome looking at prospect lists and Seth's has a lot of interesting names. Most notably, a guy most Twins fans still haven't heard of is Adrian Salcedo who cracked his top 10.

• Brian Pietrzak wrote a great book review for Munson: The Life and Death of a Yankee Captain by Marty Appel. The book sounds great and it's now on my list of books that I'll be looking to read this fall.

But tops on that list is still Joe Posnanski's The Machine: A Hot Team, a Legendary Season, and a Heart-stoppping World Series: The Story of the 1975 Cincinnati Reds.

• And make sure to head over to A Voice From Twins Territory to read a great interview with Kyle Gibson.

• And for more on Gibson, make sure to read the Star-Tribune's article by Joe Christensen. Stohs also updates us on a few other unsigned players. He also informs us that former first round pick Jay Rainville has decided to retire from professional baseball. Sad news.

• Finally, here's my Quote of the Day:

"Was that catching or missing? He's the third catcher. He says he can do it, and I believe him because he'd be faster running back and picking it up at the backstop than anybody else."

- - Twins manager Ron Gardenhire on Carlos Gomez catching for Jesse Crain and Jose Mijares in the bullpen.

Glen Perkins Hits the Shelf, but Who Takes His Place?

Josh Johnson — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 01:50:00 -0400

The Twins announced after their embarrassing loss to the Royals on Tuesday night that Glen Perkins has been placed on the 15-day Disabled List due to something along the lines of a sore shoulder.

Perkins had an MRI prior to the game on Tuesday and although nothing was seen in the results, Perkins said that something's not right and the Twins ultimately decided to take a deeper look at it.

With Perkins gone and the Twins using up four relievers to finish off Tuesday's game, including both Brian Duensing and Bobby Keppel, the Twins need to make a move to bring in a pitcher prior to Francisco Liriano's start tonight.

Liriano has averaged just 5 2/3 innings per start this season and if either of his last two starts are any indication, they'll need to have a pitcher ready to throw at least two innings of relief to give some relief (pun intended) to the bullpen.

Last week, I wrote about how Juan Morillo should be recalled by the Twins. And although I still believe that, it's not to say that I'm not laboring for anyone else to not be called up. Because really, I believe four or five guys could be realistic options for a recall.

And Morillo is certainly just one of them. But as Seth Stohs points out, Morillo just threw two-plus innings last night (33 pitches total) and would probably be of no use for the Twins tonight.

And while we can only dream of Anthony Slama being promoted, to me it comes down to two guys:

Rob Delaney threw two 2/3 innings on Monday but should be ready to throw one or two if needed tonight. And have I mentioned he's been lights out? Since the All-Star Break, he's 1-2 with a 1.84 ERA and 13/3 K/BB ratio. On the season, he's 5-3 with a 3.16 ERA for the Red Wings after posting a 2.00 ERA in as many games (26) with the Rock Cats.

Jeff Manship is another person who could also be an option. La Velle E. Neal III and Stohs also believe Manship could be the guy and it's hard to disagree. He's scheduled to start for the Red Wings tonight and should be able to throw as many innings as needed. He's had problems with walks this season and in eight starts with the Red Wings he's thrown four quality starts.

I know some believe Armando Gabino should be recalled because he's already on the 40-man roster, but the Twins have yet to transfer Kevin Slowey onto the 60-day disabled list which would open a stop on the 40-man.

Also, Gabino just started on Monday and threw 90 pitches through six 2/3 innings. I just don't see him being the fit either. Yohan Pino's name hasn't really been mentioned, but he just threw eight innings on Sunday.

Right now, I'm pulling for Manship to get the recall but my gut feeling is that Delaney is the choice. But we'll see.

Alex Rios Acquisition by White Sox Can't Be Good for the Minnesota Twins Future

Josh Johnson — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 04:21:00 -0400

For those that either read this site or know me, you already know that I rarely say anything nice about the White Sox.

Honestly, it's nothing personal. I just don't like them.

They're the Twins' biggest rivals and since they were the last to hoist the Commissioner's Trophy, I have a reason to dislike them, don't I?

But right now, I'm finding it hard to find anything bad to say about the White Sox, which is something that has never happened to me.

The franchise is in a great position to be very good for a long time, which is something that should frighten Twins fans.

Most Twins fans are about to enjoy the best year of Twins baseball yet.

The ball club has arguably the best player in the world, another player that is a former MVP, one of the best lead-off hitters in the game, a rarely-talked about DH that is putting up All-Star numbers and a brand new stadium that will host its first game next spring.

Obviously, it's an exciting time to be a Twins fan.

But the White Sox are doing their best to piss on the Twins' parade by loading up on players that will certainly make them the favorites to win the A.L. Central not only this season, but also in 2010.

And no, it is not only because they got Alex Rios yesterday for...nothing.

With an already talented roster, the White Sox didn't have to surrender any players to acquire a good outfielder in Rios.

Rios was claimed by the White Sox off of waivers.

The problem is, although he's making a lot of money, the Blue Jays basically gave away a 28-year-old with great potential, who is still not making a disgusting amount.

He's set to make around $60 million between now and 2014. But to me, the contract shouldn't pose a problem.

Rios will be 33-years-old in his last year of his contract. In other words, he'll likely have already hit his peak and will be on the slight decline.

But, if Rios plays to his potential with the White Sox, he'll make that $12 million look like nothing.

Rios is moving into U.S. Cellular which has about the same dimensions as his former home in the Rogers Centre.

The two ballparks are very similar; in fact, the Rogers Centre averages 2.37 home runs per game while U.S. Cellular averages 2.35.

Rios is a developed version of what the Twins' Carlos Gomez could be. He's a toolsy outfielder who plays good defense. His bat is lightyears ahead of Gomez's, but many believe Gomez should be able to put up similar offensive numbers to Rios as well, perhaps with a little less 'pop' and a little more base running.

But, nonetheless, the White Sox acquired a very talented outfielder, for again, nothing.

Even with the addition of Jake Peavy, his large contract, and Rios, the White Sox are still in a very good place financially.

"How?" you may ask.

Well, this offseason the White Sox could have almost $50 million coming off the payroll.

· Jim Thome - $13 Million

· Jermaine Dye - (Mutual Option - $12 Million/$1 Million buyout)

· Jose Contreras - $10 Million

· Octavio Dotel - $6 Million

· Ramon Castro - $2.5 Million

· Mark Kotsay - $1.5 Million

· Matt Thornton - (Club Option - $2.25 Million/$250,000 buyout)

· Bartolo Colon - $1 Million

That's a lot of money that could come off of their hands this off-season. And remember, they play in the third largest market in baseball.

And the other team that is in their same market is spending nearly $40 million more this season.

Obviously, that doesn't mean that the White Sox could/should spend that much more, but they certainly could up their payroll if needed.

Both Thome and Dye are integral parts to their offense and they'd certainly miss both players.

But that leaves the ball club open to going out and acquiring a few serious free agents.

Although the list of "top" free agents is limited, they'll be aggressive and will likely land at least one high-impact free agent.

My early prediction: Matt Holliday

Why? Because even though Carlos Quentin is 'locked' in left field, he's terrible there defensively (career -8.7 UZR/150 in left field) and with his reoccurring foot problems, he'll benefit offensively from a move to DH where he'd fill Thome's spot just fine.

Holliday is an upgrade defensively (career 6.6 UZR/150 in LF).

Many believe the Cardinals will lock up Holliday long-term, but he's a Scott Boras client and I'll be surprised if he doesn't test the free agency market.

And if he does hit the market, I expect the White Sox to be one of his likely suitors.

And if that fails, the White Sox have always been very aggressive in acquiring players via trade and reports are running rampant that Carl Crawford could be dealt this offseason.

The White Sox don't have a lot of depth in their farm system.

But even though they've traded away a lot of their top prospects in the past couple years, they still have a few valuable chips in their system.

Most notably, Tyler Flowers, Jordan Danks, Dayan Viciedo, and Dan Hudson.

The White Sox probably wouldn't trade Flowers with A.J. Pierzynski coming off the books in 2011. Viciedo is probably too expensive for the Rays liking.

With Rios being the only outfielder (at least in my mind) who is a lock to stay in the outfield, they might also want to hold onto Danks. But Hudson will surely entice the Rays and would be a good centerpiece for a Crawford trade.

Obviously, Jared Mitchell should also be mentioned, but he's not allowed to be traded until next summer.

Either Crawford or Holliday are certainly realistic possibilities for the White Sox for the outfield.

And then there's the rotation.

With Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd, the White Sox now have one of the best one through four’s in the American League. And with Jose Contreras leaving after the season, that leaves the White Sox with the possibility to add an impact pitcher like Rich Harden or John Lackey.

Now, just about everything from the middle of this post-on is purely speculative and basically moot to my overall meaning of this post.

So what is my meaning? In case you haven't figured it out yet...

The White Sox have a great shot of winning this season and with a lot of financial flexibility, they have a lot that they can do not only this offseason, but also in 2011 when guys like Pierzynski and Paul Konerko come off the books.

They've dealt many of their top prospects but they still have a couple good players in their system that should help within the next couple years.

That should worry the Twins, who are currently three games under .500 and don't look to have what it takes to win this season, and maybe not next either.

Obviously, we can all say "the payroll should go up when we move into Target Field." And, while that should definitely be the case, I don't think anyone should get their hopes up of it taking a drastic turn north from the get-go.

It'll spike if they do re-sign Mauer, but I don't see them going on a spending spree in free agency and I also don't see them acquiring an impact player via trade.

The Twins do play in a larger market than the St. Louis Cardinals, who are spending roughly $33 million more than the Twins.

That's not to say the Twins need to spend that much, but it's more so of a reference of where I someday see the Twins payroll peaking.

I can't stand the White Sox, but it's hard not to be impressed with the way Kenny Williams and Jerry Reinsdorf have built that franchise.

As a Twins fan, I'm envious to not have a GM like Williams, who is as aggressive as it gets, yet he has a great grasp on the finances. And Reinsdorf is a reason enough that Twins fans should be envious of the White Sox.

Now Twins fans just need to hope that the White Sox fail to live up to the billing like the Tigers did in 2008.

Sunday's Minnesota Twins Minor League Short Hops

Josh Johnson — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 10:09:00 -0400

• Snappers outfielder Aaron Hicks snapped a 10-game hitting streak in game one of yesterday's double-header against Cedar Rapids. During that period, Hicks hit .349 and drove in six RBI. He also walked five times and struck out six. And speaking of, while Hicks' hit streak was snapped, he's now reached base safely (hit or walk) in 13 straight games. Hicks' tri-slash line of .247/.355/.370 doesn't look great considering the type of hype Hicks has had since he was drafted. But something that is worth noting is his 26 walks to 31 strikeouts. That kind of plate discipline is great from any 19-year-old and it could give the Twins a reason to promote him after the season, despite only having three months in the Midwest League,. Seeing as how the Twins have been reluctant to promote other players over the years, Hicks will probably have to wait until mid-season in 2009 to see the Florida State League.

• Andrey Lobanov who premiered on my Top 50 Prospect list at No. 50 this winter has put up some great numbers in the Gulf Coast League this season. In 12 games (18 innings), the lanky southpaw has a .67 WHIP and a good groundball out percentage of 68. But the most impressive stat that the 19-year-old Russian has posted is a 30/0 K/BB ratio. He only throws in the mid-80's but his fastball is very deceptive and has gained quite a bit of movement on it. He'll likely end up back in Rookie Ball in 2010 with the Elizabethton Twins.

• Another player on the GCL Twins that is openening some eyes is Hyeong-rok Choi. Choi is a middle infielder from South Korea who has been impressive in his second go-around in the GCL. Through 18 games, he's hitting .305/.388/.475 with two doubles, a triple and two home runs. Hyun-wook Choi, Choi's classmate from Gunsan Commercial High School in South Korea is also playing for the GCL Twins. The outfielder is having less success in his second season with the GCL Twins but is considered a fleet-footed outfielder with a good arm/glove.

• GCL Twins ace B.J. Hermsen hasn't allowed an earned run in his last 19 innings pitched. He last gave up an earned run on July 15. He did give up three unearned runs in his last start because Jairo Perez botched a ground ball at third base which opened the flood gates for the GCL Reds in the fourth inning. Hermsen has been spectacular in his first season of pro ball and despite not having any experience in the Appalachian League, he's making a case for himself to move him up to Single-A Beloit in 2010. The Twins surely aren't regretting the $650,000 signing bonus it took to lure Hermsen out of a scholarship to Oregon State.

• Yesterday, Wilson Ramos played in his second game with the GCL Twins since partially tearing his hamstring in early June. It was the last of several injuries the very soon-to-be (how soon? tomorrow soon) 22-year-old has had this season. He's only played in a total of 38 games this season due to the injuries but has been impressive in his limited time. He hit .308/.327/.444 with 12 extra-base hits in 36 games with the New Britain Rock Cats. He struck out 15 times opposed to only three walks, but both would be cutbacks from last year in the Florida State League. Ramos is three for nine on his rehab assignment with two home runs and a double. The Twins are hoping he'll be able to return to the Rock Cats lineup sometime in the next week. Ramos is one of the Twins' top prospects but will surely be back in New Britain next season.

• Another player rehabbing is Alejandro Machado. Machado has been injured throughout his career with the Twins after they selected him in the 2006 Rule V Draft. He missed all of the 2007 season and part of 2008 with a torn labrum and has had knee problems throughout this season. He has played a total of 25 games this season, only 18 of which have been with the Rochester Red Wings. The fragile 27-year-old has the ability to hit, which was proven last year when he hit .338/.376/.472 with 20 extra-base hits in 54 games with the Red Wings, but injuries continue to derail his career. He is three for 13 with a double and five walks in four rehab games with the Ft. Myers Miracle.

• Mark Grudzielanek continues his way back to the Major Leagues but is now two for his last 12, lowering his average to .257 through seven games with the New Britain Rock Cats. In that span, he's struck out five times opposed to walking just once and hasn't yet recorded an extra-base hit. Grudzielanek is a career .290 hitter with a solid OPS+ of 90. He will definitely start hitting eventually, but if John Bonnes is right, he'll need to start making progress sooner rather than later as he's on a 25-day contract. Grudzielanek is an upgrade offensively over both Alexi Casilla and Nick Punto and the Twins seem willing to lose a little defenisvely to gain a lot offensively. But at this point, he's not showing to be an upgrade offensively either. He hasn't played in nearly a year, so he has some rust to knock off.

• Miracle starter, David Bromberg won his fourth consecutive start on Friday, limiting the Charlotte Stone Crabs to just three hits in the second complete game shutout of his career. Bromberg didn't face more than four batters in a single inning and the only Stone Crab to reach second base was Shawn O'Malley who stole second base after a leadoff walk in the first inning. Bromberg fanned nine to bring his season total to 113. Through 22 games (21 starts), the 21-year-old right-hander is 11-1 on the year with a 2.44 ERA.

• Finally, here's a great article on Miracle pitching coach Steve Mintz. He's had a lot of success with the Miracle pitching staff this season and has been a great replacement for Eric Rasmussen.

Carl Pavano Should Provide the Twins with Some Much-Needed Stability

Josh Johnson — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 02:04:00 -0400

After a tough series in Cleveland, the Twins finally acquired a pitcher, which should have happened a week earlier. While it's tough to fault the Twins for not making a second move at the trade deadline, we can all agree that another move was necessary.

The Twins left Cleveland and immediately acquired 33-year-old right-hander Carl Pavano from the Indians. Pavano may not be the pitcher most fans were hoping for, but he should help nonetheless.

Pavano—in spite of his 5.37 ERA—has had a pretty good season. He struggled early in the season, especially in his first outing, where he gave up nine runs in just one inning of work, but since the start of May he's 9-5 with a 4.68 ERA.

He was an All-Star back in 2004 with the Florida Marlins but has struggled to stay healthy since.

Much like Francisco Liriano, he has a good slider and set of secondary pitches, but his fastball hasn't been very effective. But unlike Liriano, his control has been good this season, walking an average of only 1.6 batters per nine innings pitched. Hitters have hit .299 against him this season, but he gets nearly half of his outs via the groundball.

Pavano's xFIP is a very solid 4.15, which, as Aaron Gleeman points out, would lead the Twins' rotation.

The most valuable asset Pavano provides to the Twins is his successful track record against other American League Central opponents.

With 36 of the team's remaining 53 games against other AL Central teams, Pavano's 8-5 record and 4.03 ERA against those teams should come in handy.

Those aren't dominating numbers by any means, but if you take out his struggles against the Royals, he's 7-2 with a 2.29 ERA—meaning he's looked great against both the White Sox and Tigers throughout his career.

Unfortunately for Pavano, the Twins are set to face the Royals 12 more times this season, more than any other opponent.

To make room for him on the 25-man roster, the Twins optioned knuckleball reliever R.A. Dickey to Triple-A Rochester, where he'll join a struggling Red Wings rotation.

I've discussed Dickey's struggles on this site recently, but I have to be honest that I'm a little surprised the Twins didn't opt to send fellow reliever Bobby Keppel down instead.

Either way, one of them had to go, and if it was Dickey now, it may be Keppel later.

To make room for him on the 40-man roster, the Twins transferred Boof Bonser to the 60-day disabled list.

Pavano's a free agent after the season and is only due around $500,000 of his $1.5 million for the rest of the season, so if he fails, the Twins could choose to cut bait early.

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire didn't dismiss the possibility of the Twins adding another pitcher:

“There’s no telling how many more guys we’re negotiating with right now. I mean, there could be a ton. I think, just talking to a couple guys in the office, we’ve talked to a lot of people.”

It's great to see that the Twins are showing serious efforts towards winning. Hopefully, everything works out.

Pavano makes his first start for the Twins tonight against Tigers ace Justin Verlander. Pavano, for the time being, has taken Glen Perkins' rotation spot, but that may only be temporary, especially with Liriano currently away from the team for a family matter.

Francisco Liriano's Return to Form: It All Starts with the Fastball

Josh Johnson — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 04:15:00 -0400

A year ago, almost to the date, Francisco Liriano was returning from an extended stay in Triple-A Rochester where he worked on getting his arm back to where it was prior to his Tommy John surgery. Liriano finished off the season with a 3.01 ERA between 11 August and September starts in which he went 6-1 in that span.

Liriano finished his first season back from surgery with great success and was primed to take the next step in 2009. But over the winter, Liriano lost everything he worked on in '08 and has been one of the worst starters in the Majors this season.

He "tries to do too much" which is what has hurt him this season. Problem is, that's what made him so successful in the first place. He added just a little something extra than what was needed and it worked for him. He's now having a hard time finding a way of getting guys out without just merely throwing it at the catcher.

On one hand, that may be a little misleading. Liriano threw very hard back in 2006, we all know that. But he also displayed outstanding control on all of his pitches.

His slider was the best in baseball and while his fastball wasn't outstanding, it played a big part in his success. The saying has always been that the fastball sets up the ______. Almost every pitch in baseball requires a good fastball to make it effective.

Liriano still has an good slider. While it's not nearly as dominating as it was back in 2006, it's still considered a plus pitch. He has also made his change-up a good pitch as well, which is probably the pitch that relies most on the fastball. The problem is, Liriano's fastball has been one of the most ineffective pitches in all of baseball this season.

Parker Hageman, one of the best writers around, did a great analysis on trying to identify Liriano's problems this season. He concludes that although many people (especially Liriano and the coaching staff) believe that he's mentally doing something different against certain batters or in certain situations, it's more than likely something physical that he's doing wrong.

I know from observations that he stands on the first base side of the pitching rubber against left-handed batters opposed to the third base side against right-handed batters. Obviously, that's fairly standard among most left-handed pitchers, but a move to the first base side of the rubber might be helpful. How? I don't know, but it wouldn't hurt to try.

It has helped Kyle Lohse and many other players and it could help Liriano. But I'm sure that the Twins have already thought of this and have tried this in Spring Training.

His fastball has been so bad this season that everything should be considered. The Twins are in a position to contend and having both Liriano and Perkins pitching ineffectively will definitely hurt their chances of making the playoffs.

Now, Liriano's in the position of losing his rotation spot while being pushed to the bullpen. While we can all say, "it's about time," the problem then would become: Who replaces him?

Fixing a Gas Leak

Josh Johnson — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 06:41:00 -0400

After an absolutely horrid start to the season, the bullpen looked to be turning things around in May and June. But at such an inconvenient time, when the starting pitching started taking a nose-dive, the bullpen followed suit.

Now the bullpen ranks 22nd in MLB with a 4.22 ERA and have given up the sixth most home runs. In 16 games since the All-Star Break, the team is 7-9, but the bullpen has accounted for four of those losses. In the 56 innings the bullpen has been used in since the All-Star break, they have a accumulated a 7.47 ERA with 41/29 K/BB ratio. Many of the runs have come in bulk, but the bullpen has still allowed runs in 10 of the 16 games.

While the bright stars of the gloomy group shine bright, the black holes of that same group seem to get more and more alarming. Joe Nathan and Matt Guerrier can only do so much, which means the rest of the group needs to step it up and do their jobs.

Between May and June, R.A. Dickey looked to be a great signing. In fact, he may have been our most reliable reliever having a combined 1.36 ERA in 33 innings of work. And in eight of his 17 appearances, he threw 2+ innings. Having someone who can throw multiple innings in each appearance will help a bullpen immensely.

But as soon as interleague play wraped up Dickey—as Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven would say—"lost the feel of the knuckle ball" and looked to have 'hit a wall.' He was getting clobbered in almost every appearance. In fact in 11 appearances since July 1st, he's posted a 7.59 ERA. In that time frame, only four of his 11 appearances have come without a run as he's seen his ERA skyrocket nearly two whole points. At one point, he looked to be a viable 7th, if not 8th inning option for the Twins. Now, his days on the roster may be wearing thin.

The other hole is Bobby Keppel. Keppel, when first called up, was quickly dismissed as an option by a lot of people. But the 27-year-old reliever quickly began quieting all doubters when he gave up just one run in his first 16 innings of work.

While he never had a strong grasp of the strike zone to begin with, Keppel lost it completely and has given up 11 runs in his last 6 1/3 innings to bring his ERA up to 4.84 on the season.

Like Keppel, Dickey also began walking more and more runners since July as well. The two have combined for 21 walks and 19 strikeouts in their last 36 1/3 innings. While they may eat up innings for us, not being able to rely on them in close games does make things a lot more strenuous on the rest of the bullpen. We can't have two mop-up guys when only two guys are reliable in the first place.

One problem both Dickey and Keppel have is that they don't fool hitters. Everyone knows Dickey has a knuckle ball that can be effective, but if he doesn't have a "feel" for it, his secondary pitches are just about worthless to him. Keppel too doesn't fool hitters. He throws his fastball—which as it turns out is his most unsuccessful pitch—nearly 70 percent of the time. He can crank it up to around 94 mph, but he doesn't have the velocity to warrant such putrid command problems. Keppel is a ground ball pitcher and we all know what happens to a ground ball pitcher if he can't locate his pitches.

My fix is not a permanent one, and it may not even work, but at this point anything needs to be considered before the team runs completely out of fuel. Juan Morillo should be called up right now to help aid our bullpen. I know, he has his control problems as well. But if the Twins are going to continue to allow guys like Dickey and Keppel go up and attempt to blindly find the strike zone, at least let a guy who throws in the upper 90s have a chance too.

Morillo was claimed off of waivers by the Twins back in April after they decided they had enough of watching Philip Humber at the major league level. At the time, the Twins gave him three chances to prove his worth and he failed miserably. He gave up five runs in just two innings of work while walking three. In his defense, he was facing the Red Sox and Rays, two of the best offense's in baseball. But three walks is not acceptable against any offense and Morillo was rightfully shipped off to the minor leagues to work on his control.

He's made progress on his command and has also shapened up his slider so that it is now considered a "nasty" pitch. Obviously, he has pitching coach Bobby Cuellar to thank for that. Cuellar has played a huge roll in both of the careers of Francisco Liriano and Johan Santana. He helped Liriano sharpen his knee-buckling slider while helping Santana perfect his circle change. With a fastball around 100 mph and a nasty slider, Morillo has gotten hitters to swing and miss on an average of 12.3 times per nine innings, the best of his career.

Although he's struggled as of late, he should still be given a shot. Both Keppel and Dickey have become completely unreliable and unfortunately, they're not the only pitchers in the bullpen struggling.

Brian Duensing hasn't been very effective either, even though some of us are all still in the "what if" phase of him being a starting pitcher. He threw a great game against the Chicago White Sox in his first-ever start last week, but it was just to fill in for Liriano who gave the Twins a medical scare. Jesse Crain has been off or on since his return to the bullpen, but he does give me little hope. And Jose Mijares has also struggled as of late giving up five runs in his last 6 2/3 innings.

These guys fortunately don't scare me nearly as much as Keppel or Dickey. And while Morillo is far from a perfect fix, he's still a good option in a time of crisis. I haven't even mentioned the fact that Rob Delaney has been lights-out over the last month in Rochester or that Armando Gabino has been the best Red Wings pitcher all season. The Twins certainly have options to fix this bullpen and they need to act now before things get even more out of hand. With an off-day today, it's the perfect time to start moving in the right direction.

Both Delaney and Gabino are good options and should be considered. With just one reliever (not counting Nathan) averaging over 93 mph on their fastball, I would like to see the Twins add some gas to help fix their leak. And if the gas can sustain the leak long enough, hopefully they'll find another pitcher to help patch it up.

Twins Minor League Month in Review: July

Josh Johnson — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 14:43:00 -0400

First, to take a look at June's Minor League Month in Review, click here.

The short-season leagues finally had a full month under their belts, but both teams remain at the top of their divisions. Many draft picks have signed and some have even moved up levels while other draftees still have until Aug. 15 to sign with the Twins.

Although first-round pick Kyle Gibson is still unsigned, the Twins and Gibson are confident a deal will be reached, despite Gibson asking for more money than where his slot suggests.

Several key players have been hit with an injury bug, the latest seems to be Ben Revere who hasn't played in almost two weeks due to the staff having to drain fluid from his banged-up left knee. Revere has had problems with his knee for parts of his career, but nobody would guess after he's now stolen 98 bases in 222 career games.

Aaron Hicks finally had a full month under his sleeve in Beloit, and while many people think he's struggling, I personally think he's doing just fine. Remember, Hicks is just 19-years-old and although a .223 average and .690 OPS don't look good, make sure that you take a look at his plate discipline, which is fantastic.

He has struck out 25 times but has walked 23. He has great speed and power and the bat will turn around. As long as he can continue to have quality at-bats, everything else will work itself out eventually.

The six affiliates combined for an 81-85 record while scoring 729 runs but gave up 741 runs. The 49 percent winning percentage is down 6 percent from June. The teams did combine for more runs-scored per game at 4.4 which is down from the 4.9 in May but up from the 4.3 in June. The teams also combined to give up 4.5 runs per game.

Many teams had trouble finding consistency in July which has really been the theme all season.

Rochester Red Wings (50-54, Tied for third in International League North)

Despite scoring 26 more runs than they gave up, the Red Wings still had a losing month in July with a 13-14 record. The offense averaged 4.9 runs per game, up from the 4.2 runs per game in June.

The pitching also gave up just 3.93 runs per game, the lowest of the season, but sloppy defense and untimely hitting cost the Red Wings from turning in a successful month. They currently sit tied for third place in the International League North, but with the Yankees continuing to control the division, the Red Wings will need a miracle if they want to catch them in August.

Hitter of the Month

After an abysmal start to the season, Jason Pridie finally broke loose in July hitting .288/.330/.481 with 12 extra-base hits including three home runs. Pridie drove in 17 runs while hitting at the top of the Red Wings order which lead the team for the month of July.

Pridie also walked six times in July, bringing his season total to 15. While he still has potential as a fourth outfielder, his eye-at-the-plate will probably limit his chances in the Major Leagues.

Honorable Mention: Justin Huber (.386/.3.81/.536, 84 AB, 9 Doubles, 4 HR, 14 RBI)

Pitcher of the Month

With no signs of turning around, it looked as though Reid Santos' time with the Red Wings could be coming to an end if he didn't turn things around after a terrible month of June.

But the 26-year-old right-hander came through in July, stepping up as the staff ace while going 1-1 with a 1.74 ERA in six games (five starts). He also struck out 18 in the 31 innings he pitched.

Santos is not a ground ball pitcher and a .265 average and 1.26 WHIP suggest that he had guys on base quite a bit. But he managed to control the situation and forced teams to leave a lot of men on base.

Honorable Mention: Jeff Manship (3-1, 2.59 ERA, 31 1/3 IP, 5 starts, 14 BB, 15 K)

New Britain Rock Cats (51-54, Tied for third in Eastern League Northern)

New Britain has looked like a completely different team without Danny Valencia in the lineup. The offensive production has plummeted and the rest of their 'bash bros' that were left in New Britain have started looking a lot more mashed as the season goes on.

The offense averaged just 3.4 runs per game while the pitching staff also took a step back, allowing 4.9 runs per game. They will be getting some help when Mark Grudzielanek joins the lineup. Hopefully he can help the Rock Cats finish the season off strong after a 12-18 July.

Hitter of the Month

Despite not having a 'home' defensively, many still thought Erik Lis would start the season in Rochester after posting marginally good numbers in New Britain the year before. The Twins felt differently and Lis headed back to New Britain for another year of feasting on Eastern League pitching.

Lis got off to somewhat of a disappointing start. While his numbers were fine, they were very reminiscent of his '08 numbers which were good, but they weren't what people were expecting from this big left-hander.

But since the start of June has been one of the best hitters in the Eastern League. In July, he hit .305/.377/.552 with 12 extra-base hits including seven home runs. He also drew 12 walks and swiped his first base of the season.

Lis performs much better when he is the Designated Hitter than when he's playing first base, so with Brock Peterson and the Red Wings infield in somewhat of a logjam, it's unlikely Lis gets an opportunity to play in the International League this season.

Honorable Mention: Steve Singleton (.385/.429/.538, 6 Doubles, 1 Triple, 4 RBI)

Pitcher of the Month

It sure didn't look good for Ryan Mullins at the beginning of the 2009 season. Despite spending most of the 2007 season and all of the 2008 season with the Rock Cats, Mullins looked clueless on the mound against Eastern League hitters.

All of that changed in July when Mullins threw an eight inning gem against the Trenton Thunder on July 5th. That start set Mullins up for his best month of the season. The 25-year-old southpaw went 1-2 with a 3.47 ERA in four starts.

The most impressive stat of the month for Mullins was his K/BB ratio. Heading into July, Mullins posted a 2.92 K/BB ratio. But in July, he had a 8.33 K/BB ratio thanks to walking just three batters while striking out 25. The Rock Cats need him to keep it up, especially with the offense performing poorly.

Honorable Mention: Alex Burnett (1-0, 1.42 ERA, 15 innings, 10 BB, 16 K, 1.00 WHIP)

Ft. Myers Miracle (70-44 overall, 17-18 in second Half, second in Florida State League South)

The Miracle rebounded nicely after a poor June. The team scored more runs (4.01) per game than they allowed (4.93) but they still had a .500 record for the month. Even though they lost their best player in Ben Revere to injury, the team rallied to go 8-2 in his absence. Good pitching and improving hitters should help the Miracle in August.

Hitter of the Month

After missing two months with a broken hand, Joe Benson picked up where he left off with the Ft. Myers Miracle which is getting on base at an astonishing rate. While he only picked up three extra-base hits through 64 at-bats in July, Benson walked 15 times while only striking out 16 times.

Benson came into the season wanting to improve his approach at the plate, and he's certainly done so. His .421 OBP is the best of his career and (if he qualified) would be the second highest in the Florida State League.

Benson broke his hand by punching a cement wall after a frustrating at bat, so perhaps that was a driving force for him. He's having great at-bats all season, but he looks like a completely new guy in July. Now the test is to see if he can repeat it in August.

Honorable Mention: Rene Leverett (.309/.356/.441, 4 Doubles, 1 Triple, 1 HR, 8 RBI)

Pitcher of the Month

Steven Hirschfeld has quietly put up great numbers this season and has become the 2009 version of Cole Devries for the Miracle. Like Devries, many haven't talked much about Hirschfeld this season despite being one of the most consistent pitchers on the staff. Also like Devries, Hirschfeld has been used out of the bullpen as well as the rotation and has been effective in both situations.

In July, Hirschfeld was finally put into the rotation full time and delivered with 2.03 ERA in six starts. He was 2-3 but did have a 0.91 WHIP. Hirschfeld (like Devries) is likely viewed as a reliever in the long run, but it's great to see him be successful under both circumstances.

Honorable Mention: Santos Arias (1-1, 1.13 ERA, 9 Games, 3 Starts, 24 IP, 6 BB, 20 K)

Beloit Snappers (39-64 overall, 12-21 in second half, eighth in Midwest League West)

The Snappers continue to plummet this season and are just waiting for the season to be over. The team was 10-17 in July thanks to a struggling pitching staff that gave up 5.63 runs per game. The offense is finding ways to score runs, but the pitching staff isn't giving them a fighting chance.

Hitter of the Month

Angel Morales has had a roller coaster season so far in 2009. After an abysmal April, he put up good numbers in May. He followed May up with an abysmal June before putting up great numbers again in July. But considering he's only 19-years-old, I'm not really disappointed in him at all.

Although he's likely to wind back up in Beloit again next season, hopefully he can continue to work on his plate discipline which has improved since last season, but is still unacceptable.

But on a plus, he did strikeout for a season low 12 times in July. So any improvement is still improvement, right? Morales hit .361/.375/.541 with eight extra-base hits and 11 RBI. Hopefully he'll break the 'curse' and will finish the season up with strong back-to-back months.

Honorable Mention: Ramon Santana (.293/.354/.444, 6 Doubles, Triple, 2 Home Runs, 20 RBI, 2 BB)

Pitcher of the Month

Another Twins pitching prospect who is quietly putting up great numbers this season is Brad Tippett. The 21-year-old Aussie has an 8-4 record with a 2.46 ERA on a team with a collective ERA of 4.52. While he's not Kevin Slowey, Tippett has been said to have the best control on the farm system.

Tippett didn't 'wow' anyone in the Midwest League as a reliever last season but the Twins have stuck with him as a starter this season and it has paid off. In July, he was 3-1 with a 1.57 ERA in five starts. He was hit hard in his last start, but he was 3-0 with a 0.91 ERA in his first four starts in July.

Honorable Mention: Liam Hendriks (1-2, 3.33 ERA, 24 1/3 IP, 4 starts, 4 BB, 23 K)

Elizabethton Twins (26-9, first in Appalachian League West)

The Elizabethton Twins continue to lead the way in the Appalachian League and could be en route to another Championship appearance. The Twins pitching staff gave up 4.8 runs per game but when the offense continues to crush the opposition for an average of 6.9 runs per game, that two-plus point differential is the reason the Twins went 18-8 in July. Nobody really stands out in the lineup, but as a team they're a real force.

Hitter of the Month

Josmil Pinto finished off a great season in 2008 with the Gulf Coast League Twins, hitting .385/.429/.667 in August while wrapping up a fantastic professional debut. And he's been on a tear already this season posting a 1.069 OPS through 25 games.

In July, the 20-year-old Venezuelan native hit .368/.414/.671 with seven doubles, two triples and four home runs. With the loss of Danny Rams and Tyler Ladendorf, Pinto has filled in nicely as the team's top bat.

Honorable Mention: Michael Gonzalez (.294/.365/.553, 5 Doubles, Triple, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 10 BB)

Pitcher of the Month

For the second straight month, Tom Stuifbergen takes home the honors of being Elizabethton's top pitcher. The 20-year-old Dutch has been one of the best pitchers in the Appalachian League this season and is gearing up for a full-season stint in Beloit for next season.

Stuifbergen went 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA in six July starts, striking out 34 while walking just four in 30-plus innings. He's shooting up the 'Top Prospect' ranks and has been a great success all year. Remember, he played an integral part to the Netherlands 'Cinderella Story' in the World Baseball Classic.

Honorable Mention: Matt Tone (2-1, 2.12 ERA, 8 games, 17 innings pitched, 1.72 BAA, 14 BB, 22 K)

GCL Twins (17-14, Tied for first in Gulf Coast League South)

The GCL Twins didn't have the July everyone was hoping for, but at 13-13 on the month they still sit towards the top of the division. The offense was horrid, averaging just over three runs per contest but the pitching staff has been impeccable, averaging just 3.77 runs allowed per game.

While the pitching staff continues to blossom, the offense needs to start being more productive. Out of 26 games, the offense scored one or less runs in nine of them. The fact that they won even two of them should speak volume of the pitching staff.

Hitter of the Month

With such a horrid offense, you'd think it might be hard to pick a player that stood out as the best hitter. But it's actually not that hard, while he didn't rip the cover off the ball, Jairo Perez was the Twins' best hitter in July.

The 21-year-old Venezuelan native hit .265/.354/.368 with four doubles and a home run. He drove in five but did manage to have a great 8/6 BB/K ratio. He's small at 5'10'' and 160 lbs. and doesn't have a ton of potential, but he should continue to lead the way for the GCL Twins in August.

Honorable Mention: Kennys Vargas (.245/.355/.396, 5 Doubles, Home Run, 8 RBI)

Pitcher of the Month

There were three guys I felt deserved this award and I couldn't pick just one...

B.J. Hermsen has been a great pick by the Twins thus far. Selected in the sixth round of the 2008 draft, nobody expected him to sign as he had a scholarship to Oregon State that stood in the way. But the Twins convinced the 6'6'' Iowa native that professional baseball was the right choice and he's backing that decision up this season.

In July, Hermsen was 4-1 with a 1.27 ERA in five starts. He walked just three and struck out 18 in 28-plus innings. He is climbing up the 'Top Prospect' charts this season and could be considered one of the Twins' top pitching prospects heading into 2010.

Adrian Salcedo had a great season on the Twins' Dominican Summer League last year and is turning heads again this year. He has a great frame at 6'4'' and 175 lbs. and at just 18-years-old, he is quickly becoming one of the better young pitching prospects in the Twins' system.

In July, Salcedo was 1-1 with a 1.57 ERA in four starts. He struck out 24 batters in 23 innings and walked just two. He's an extreme ground ball pitcher getting nearly 60 percent of his outs via the ground ball. His age, frame and early success could make him a guy to keep an eye on.

Andrei Lobanov, if you don't remember, cracked my Top 50 Twins Prospects list last winter at No. 50. He's a lanky southpaw with impeccable countrol and despite throwing in the mid-upper 80's, he makes hitters swing and miss due to him being able to throw the any of his pitches wherever/whenever he wants.

In 13 July innings, Lobanov allowed just two earned runs and had an insane 71.9 GB percent. But the most impressive stat was the fact that the 19-year-old didn't walk a single batter while striking out 19. He is another player that Twins fans will need to keep an eye on.

Honorable Mention: Jhon Garcia (2-2, 1.96 ERA, 4 GS, 23 innings pitched, 0.91 WHIP, 3 BB, 19 K)

Twins, A's swap shortstops

Josh Johnson — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 15:14:00 -0400

Update 3:10: Joe Christensen said (via his Twitter page) that the Twins are done trading. They worked on deals for Heath Bell, Jon Rauch and Mike Wuertz up until the deadline.

He also said that the predicted roster move for Cabrera is to send Alexi Casilla to Triple-A. But since Cabrera is not expected to be in the lineup until tomorrow, that could very well change overnight.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As has been reported here already, the Minnesota Twins and Oakland Athletics have agreed to a trade that will send Orlando Cabrera to the Twins in exchange for Tyler Ladendorf.

The original asking price was thought to be Danny Valencia, so the fact the Twins got Cabrera in exchange for Ladendorf speaks volume of the market for the 34-year-old shortstop Cabrera.

Ladendorf is a 21-year-old shortstop who is in his second year with the Twins after being drafted in the second round of the 2008 draft out of Howard College. Ladendorf struggled mightily in his first go-around of pro ball in 2008, hitting just .204/.308/.293 in his first 147 at bats with the Gulf Coast League Twins. Prior to the 2009 season, Ladendorf was my 33rd ranked prospect in the Twins system. Here's what I had to say about him:

Breakdown: The Twins selected Tyler Ladendorf in the second round of the 2008 draft. Heading into the draft, he was regarded as one of the best JUCO players in the country. He hit .542 with 29 doubles, 5 triples, 16 home runs and 83 RBI in 53 games his sophomore season at Howard College. He has a lot of pop in his bat, unfortunately he struggled in his first go-around in pro ball which is why he is ranked this low. He has a good glove and is a solid all-around player. Some believe that he may have to move to third base eventually, but at this time he's going to be used as a shortstop. I like Ladendorf a lot and I think that his good defense and strong eye at the plate may give the Twins a reason to move him to Beloit after 175 disappointing plate appearances in the GCL. If he struggles in Spring Training, he will probably be held in Extended Spring Training and will later head to Elizabethton, but if he succeeds, he could be in Beloit on opening day.

Note: In case you missed it, Ladendorf also was kind enough to answer a few questions for the site last summer.

But Ladendorf started turning heads early this summer, hitting .410/.500/.721 with the Elizabethton Twins through 61 at-bats. He was then promoted to Single-A to help a horrid Beloit Snappers lineup and Ladendorf came back down to earth and hit .233/.292/.267 through 60 at-bats with the Snappers.

But still, his early success this season inflated his value enough for the Twins to convince the A's (as if they truly needed to convince them) that Ladendorf was the best they'd be getting for Cabrera. And from the A's perspective, they should be thrilled they even got Cabrera considering it seemed as though it was the Twins or bust for Cabrera.

Ladendorf mixes in good speed, good arm/glove and power in a strong frame. But if he gets much bigger, he projects to be a third baseman in the future. And I do agree with La Velle Neal on what he said regarding losing Ladendorf. If the Twins had a hard time giving up Ladendorf, sign Miguel Angel Sano to replace him. By all reports, Sano is a much better prospect (obviously, nobody is going to sign him until they figure everything out with his contract).

While Ladendorf is a promising prospect, I do also like this trade from the Twins' standpoint. Like Seth Stohs said:

"Comments I have heard from other Twins bloggers is that the deal is not going to make the Twins better, but simply to appease the players. With the Mauer situation, that is not a minor thing."

And he's completely right. The Twins players have been hoping for an acquisition like this and with Joe Mauer's future in Minnesota still unknown, this sends a good message to him and the rest of the team. Is it enough to get Mauer to stay? Obviously this alone won't do it. But it should help the Twins get some leverage when even an ounce of leverage in contract talks with a superstar is a much-needed bonus.

One thing that I find interesting to note...

The A's are also sending the Twins cash in the deal. While that may not seem like anything on the surface, I do think it might have legs. Could the Twins have gotten Cabrera for much less than Ladendorf had the A's not chipped in money? Perhaps the A's insisted, but it does fit the Twins' M.O. of asking another team to pick up some of a player's salary.

And with that said, with the trade deadline now drawing to the close. The window of opportunity to add another player is dwindling fast and although even one move comes as a slight surprise, it'd still be nice to see the Twins add a pitcher. With Jarrod Washburn going to Detroit for a couple of mediocre prospects, it's not unrealistic to believe the Twins could get Jon Garland or Doug Davis (among others) for less. Pitching is an even bigger need than the middle infield, so I'm still hoping the Twins can quickly put something together.

Perhaps they'll look to add a reliever instead of a starter? Stay tuned...

Orlando Cabrera to Twins Trade Getting Closer to Completion

Josh Johnson — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 03:07:00 -0400

According to MLB-trade-deadline-buzz:-Thursday%27s-edition">multiple sources on Thursday night, the Minnesota Twins and Oakland Athletics have made a lot of progress in trade talks to send 34-year-old Orlando Cabrera to Minnesota in exchange for what is believed to be a prospect.

Earlier this week we learned that the A's asked for top prospect Danny Valencia in return for Cabrera, which the Twins rightfully scoffed at. Valencia, as it turns out, has been a popular name thrown out by other teams this week, with the Pittsburgh Pirates also asking for the talented third baseman in a trade for All-Star second baseman Freddy Sanchez.

Sanchez is a far better player than Cabrera, so if the Twins refused to include Valencia in a trade for Sanchez, I doubt they'd feel compelled to include him in a deal for Cabrera. At least, that's my hope.

The more likely scenario is that the A's have lowered their asking price for Cabrera. On Thursday morning, Daniel Barbarisi of The Providence Journal reported that the Boston Red Sox turned down an offer for Cabrera that would have sent a 27-year-old minor league reliever in Fernando Cabrera and 26-year-old first baseman/outfielder Chris Carter to Oakland in exchange for (Orlando) Cabrera.

While both (Fernando) Cabrera and Carter aren't terrible players, they do have less value than Valencia.

As I said earlier this week, if it's the right deal, Cabrera might be a solid pickup. While I do see him as a slight upgrade (again, I want to put emphasis on the word slight), I don't see him playing a huge difference on the overall outcome of the season.

With potential suitors look unlikely to deal top talent for Cabrera, the A's now sound as though they're at the point that they'll "take anything they can get" for Cabrera. That's probably a little misleading, as the Twins will probably still have to surrender a quality prospect to get Cabrera in return. However, it certainly sounds as though their top prospects are off-limits, and they should be.

One interesting thing to note is the Twins have also been linked to Oakland reliever Michael Wuertz and second baseman Adam Kennedy. Wuertz is believed to be staying in Oakland, while Kennedy is a free agent after the season and has recently been linked to the Twins.

The A's want to keep Kennedy, but I'm sure if the right deal came along, they would trade him too. Unfortunately, the A's ask for top talent in return for their players, so my hopes of the Twins nabbing both Kennedy and Cabrera is more or less a pipe dream.

I'll try to update anything that happens throughout the day. The deadline for non-waiver trades is 3:00 PM CT this afternoon. Stay tuned.