Bleacher Report - Articles by Conor Chandler

Boston Bruins Season Preview: Will Patrice Bergeron's Return Help Turn Corner?

Conor Chandler — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 19:28:47 -0400

Although they may not be the greatest team this year, and adding Michael Ryder at $4 million per year didn't help, the Boston Bruins have an outside shot at playoff contention (like they did last year).

Forwards

Boston's offense won't scare many teams. Other than Patrice Bergeron (who needs to regain his form after playing only 10 games last year due to concussion) and Marc Savard, there aren't any elite offensive players.

However, the wingmen will hopefully benefit from the production of the two centers. Marco Sturm, the last holdover from the Joe Thornton deal, has produced 27 goals each of the past two years, and Chuck Kobasew, who is talented but inconsistent, should start in the first-line winger spots.

Elsewhere on the roster are Michael Ryder (given $12 million over three years after a 14-goal, 31-point season...shows how easily GMs give away their money these days), and Phil Kessel, who could be in line for a breakout season if he plays on a line with Bergeron. Overall, a below-average group which isn't a team strength.

Grade: C

Defense

Boston has one of the best two-way blueliners in the game in Zdeno Chara (17 goals, 51 points, +14) and a speedy puckhandler in Dennis Wideman. After that, physical defensemen with not as much speed skate on the bottom two pairings.

Rookie defenseman Matt Lashoff should help the defense, which could be more talented but falls only at average due to its lack of foot speed. However, Boston's defense is great at shutting down offenses in the third period: The Bruins were 31-0-4 in games that they led after two periods. The Bruins may not have too much offense from the line, but they are called defensemen for a reason: they block shots and break up plays well.

Grade: B

Goalies

Tim Thomas has proven doubters wrong time and time again, claiming the starting goaltending job in front of veteran Manny Fernandez. Thomas is greatly underrated, though he is a notch below the elite. Prospect Tuukka Rask should take over the No. 1 job eventually, but will spend the season in the AHL until he is ready.

Grade: B+

Overall Verdict

The B's should pull out a lot of close wins with their above-average goaltending, and their offense should get a boost from the return of center Patrice Bergeron. You can argue that they are playoff material, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the playoffs come April. But you can only have so many good games from Tim Thomas.

Team Grade: B-

Prediction: 10th in East

Atlanta Thrashers Season Preview

Conor Chandler — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:24:09 -0400

Atlanta fans, your time will come, just not quite yet. Other than Kovalchuk, the offense is thin. The defense has potential, but isn't great right now. And their goaltender is loaded with potential, but hasn't been overly consistent during his first couple of years in the league.

I'm not putting Tavares' name on an Atlanta jersey yet, but the Thrashers will definitely be in the lottery mix.

Offense

Ilya Kovalchuk was among the league leaders in goals last season at 52 and he definitely has the potential to score 60 in a year. However, a true No. 1 center, something the Thrashers haven't had since Marc Savard's departure, is something the club lacks. Jason Williams, Eric Perrin, Erik Christensen, Todd White, and Brian Little are all candidates.

Little will take over in a couple of years, but the front-runner for that job is Todd White, who once had a 60-point season with the Ottawa Senators. Vyacheslav Kozlov had an off year at the age of 36 last year, and age appears to be taking its toll on the sniper.

The third and fourth line wingers are unimpressive, and projected first line RW Colby Armstrong amassed most of his fame (and points) on a line with Sidney Crosby. Although he is talented, there are a lot of players who would get a jump in production from a line with Sid the Kid

Overall, the offense is unimpressive and nobody can score in bunches except for Kovalchuk and maybe Kozlov.

Grade: D-

Defense

Ron Hainsey will help the defense, but why the heck is he making $4.5 million per year? He only got significant PP time because Columbus has a thin defense, and his defense is more porous than Swiss cheese (-26 over the last two years combined). He was also a career minor-leaguer until around two years ago.

Havelid and Enstrom should be the first defensive pairing, and not a very good one at that. Enstrom shows signs of becoming an elite offensive defenseman, but now won't be his breakout year. Bogosian will contribute, say, as much as Erik Johnson did on St. Louis last year.

Overall, the defense has major potential, but Hainsey was not a good signing in terms of improving the defense. Expect Bogosian to have more points than him. Signing a proven veteran would have worked better for the Thrashers.

Grade: D

Goaltending

Kari Lehtonen leads a slew of goaltenders including Johan Hedberg and Ondrej Pavelec. Liken Lehtonen's situation to Marc Denis back in Columbus a few years ago (back when Denis was actually a good goalie). He will get a lot of saves, but his defense will allow too many shots on the young goaltender for him to be successful.

Pavelec could be the starter in a couple years and shows a tremendous amount of potential. Hedberg can play a lot of games if Lehtonen goes down with an injury and fill in admirably. Not elite, but their goaltenders are at least decent.

Grade: C+

Overall Verdict

The Thrashers won't contend for anything in the Eastern Conference, but they have a solid young core of Brian Little, Tobias Enstrom, Zach Bogosian, and Kari Lehtonen. Expect a playoff berth in three years if the core develops well.

Prediction: 14th in East

Anaheim Ducks Season Preview

Conor Chandler — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 06:41:42 -0400

The Anaheim Ducks are ready to put their Cup hangover behind them and foot a solid playoff team this season. Their offense is led by youngsters Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, and their defensive corps is one of the strongest in the league—Niedermayer or no Niedermayer.

Here's an in-depth look on how the Ducks will play this year:

Forwards

Getzlaf and Perry will be counted on to produce the most points around the net, and that's a burden they can easily handle. Expect both to finish with 80-90 points in what should be breakout seasons for both of them into the NHL's elite.

Chris Kunitz will definitely improve his offense if he steps into the first-line slot, but he is still more suited to being a good second-liner than a first-liner.

However, secondary scoring will be hard to come by. Brian Sutherby and Todd Marchant aren't exactly household names. Brenden Morrison is talented, but coming off an injury-plagued season—and there are questions about whether he can produce.

Bobby Ryan may make a splash offensively, but he will need to impress in training camp to get ice time on the second line.

Grinders—such as Pahlsson, Rob Niedermayer, May, and Moen—predominantly occupy the last two lines. Those lines will be good for shutting down the opponents' offfense, but won't produce much otherwise.

Overall, it's hard to believe the Ducks will put up a lot of offense outside of the first line.

Overall Grade: C

Defense

There's no other way to put this—Anaheim's defense is stacked!

Pronger, Niedermayer, and Schneider will all produce offensively and be responsible defensively. Although Pronger had an off year last year, there is no way a defenseman that good can be inconsistent for more than a year.

Francois Beauchemin also had a drop in production, but Schnieder's arrival meant Beauchemin's power-play time was limited.

Huskins is a good third-liner, and Brenden Mikkelson or Brian Salcido—the former a stay-at-home defenseman and the latter an offensive defenseman—should be able to cling onto a spot on the team.

My money's on Salcido, because they could use him at wing even if he doesn't crack the top six on defense.

Overall Grade: A

Goaltending

J-S Giguere is one of the best at his position and is expected to play 60 games this year. Last year, Anaheim only gave up 100 even-strength goals—mostly due to the play of Giguere.

Backup Jonas Hiller went 10-7-1 with a 2.06 GAA and .927 save percentage, and is all you could look for in a backup. He won't get more than 20-25 games in Anaheim, but he is as dependable as No. 2 goalies get.

Overall grade: A-

Overall Verdict

This club will keep points off the board and win a lot of close games by virtue of their defense and goaltending, as well as their checking line. However, you can't get over the hump if you can't score—which is why the Anaheim Ducks will fail to crack the top four in the Western CConference.

Team Grade: B

Prediction: Sixth in the West

Is the Los Angeles Angels' Best Yet to Come?

Conor Chandler — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 20:00:19 -0400

Considering the Angels are tied for the MLB-lead in wins and boast the highest winning percentage in the majors, it's hard to believe the hottest team in baseball will get even hotter.

But with the trade-deadline acquisition of Mark Teixeira (batting .386 over the last 30 days) as well as the strong pitching of starters Joe Saunders (14-5, 3.07 ERA) and Ervin Santana (13-5, 3.49 ERA), the Halos are poised to make a run for the World Series, and the team may get hot enough to win the title. Here are three reasons why the best is yet to come undone for the Angels.

1. Solid Pitching

The Angels have one of the best rotations in the majors from a statistical standpoint. Three of their five starting pitchers have a sub-3.50 ERA (Saunders, Santana, and John Lackey), and no pitcher who's started more than six games has an ERA over 4.50 (Jered Weaver has the highest ERA of all the regulars with a 4.47 mark).

The weak link in the rotation, if any starter were to falter, would be Jon Garland. His WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) is tops among the rotation at 1.44, and, if he remains so hittable, his ERA will balloon down the stretch. Garland also boasts an opposition average of .293, which is very weak compared to not just other Angels pitchers, but pitchers throughout the entire league. At the other end of the spectrum, Lackey, Santana, and Saunders all have a WHIP of 1.17 or lower, plus a batting average against of .242 or lower, both of which are more respectable numbers.

In the bullpen, most pitchers have been consistent with the exception of Justin Speier (5.15 ERA, 11 HR allowed), and Fransisco Rodriguez has been one of the most consistent closers in the league with 46 saves in 51 chances (good for a .901 save percentage).

2. Lack of pressure

Despite having the highest winning percentage in the majors, most baseball viewers are focused on the tight pennant races: the NL East, the AL Central, and pretty much every division except the AL West. The Angels are basically shoo-ins for the AL West pennant, as no other team in their division has a winning percentage over .500. The lack of media attention will allow them to get on a roll without as much added pressure as the tight pennant races elsewhere. And once this team gets on a roll, it won't be easy to stop.

3. Positional Depth

While most teams are lucky to get three good outfielders, the Angels have four of them (though some may argue Gary Matthews Jr. isn't adequate anymore). Outfielders Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, and Garret Anderson are proven stars in the majors, and having an adequate backup helps to keep their legs fresh. Ditto for the infield, who only benefit from having extra infielder Mark Teixeira come in, and catcher, with Mathis and Napoli splitting time. Some may argue that catcher is a weak spot, but a tired catcher is much less effective defensively than a fresh one, and platooning catchers helps to keep both fresh.

So there you have it, three reasons why the Angels will wreak havoc come this postseason.

Where Brett Favre Should Have Landed

Conor Chandler — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 20:04:22 -0400

Brett Favre was traded to the New York Jets two days ago after weeks of speculation and controversy. The Jets beat out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offer to become the owner of the future Hall of Famer.

However, there is one other team who should have stepped up to gain the rights to Favre's services.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' divisional rival, the Atlanta Falcons, should have stepped up with a decent offer to let Favre play out the final year(s) of his contract.

Now why the heck would a team with over $50 million invested in a rookie quarterback, Matt Ryan, want to add another $12 million per year to their payroll?

The answer? Mentorship, and more wins.

The success of QBs who start during their rookie year have varied. Some, like Peyton Manning, have gone on to become future Hall of Famers. Others, like Joey Harrington, have turned out for the worse.

And, it just so happens to be that Joey Harrington will be Matt Ryan's backup. What a treat to have a mentor who was out of a starting QB job just four years after he was touted as a future star for the Detroit Lions.

An upgrade at the QB position is needed if the Falcons want to start out Matt Ryan as a backup. Favre would have been a great mentor to Ryan, teaching him the decision-making skills so important in NFL QBs today. As well, the Falcons would be able to win more games under Favre. He would be a good fit in Atlanta for one year, but if he wanted to stay for a year afterwards, there could be trouble because Matt Ryan would probably be ready to start by then.

The best case scenario—Favre would do decently as the starting quarterback as Michael Turner expands on the success he enjoyed as the backup to LT in San Diego. The Falcons compete for a wild card spot against all odds and Matt Ryan receives some much-needed mentorship to become a starting quarterback the year afterward.

But, the Falcons didn't pitch in with an offer, and Favre has now become a New York Jet. Matt Ryan is still the undisputed top QB in Atlanta, and who knows how his career will end up. After all, the success that QBs who start in their first year has been spotty and unpredictable.

Five Reasons Why Tom Brady Shouldn't Be Taken First Overall

Conor Chandler — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 18:48:10 -0400

Last season, Tom Brady was far and away the best fantasy football pick, as he teamed up with Randy Moss and Wes Welker to form an almost unbeatable offensive unit.

However, don't expect the same in the '08-'09 season. Tom Brady will be a great quarterback, and among the league leaders for sure, but he will not have the same unparalleled success he enjoyed last season.

Here are five reasons why.

1. Missing Components of '07-'08 team

During the offseason, the Patriots lost third receiver and deep threat Donte Stallworth, who signed with the Cleveland Browns for $24 million over three years. This will lead to more double teams for Randy Moss and Wes Welker, and thus less production from the receiving duo. The offense also lost blocking TE Kyle Brady, who acted like a sixth O-lineman, as well as a pass-catching threat. These moves will hurt Brady's fantasy value.

2. No QBs have had two record-breaking seasons in a row

The last time a QB broke a major record was in 2004, when Peyton Manning threw for 49 TDs and a 121.1 QB rating. The year after, he threw for 28 TDs, and while his 104.1 QB rating was tops in the league, it was over 15 points lower than the rating he had last season.

Peyton Manning has since not thrown for over 31 TDs in a single season. Tom Brady is coming off a season with 50 TD passes and a 117.2 QB rating, and will probably experience the same drop as Manning.

3. Running game was undervalued last season

Pats' RB Lawrence Maroney had a total of two games last year where he had 20 or more rushes. Granted, he was injured for three games, but he was still underused in the Patriots offensive system.

However, Maroney started to carry more of a load later in the season, and perhaps this is a taste of things to come.

You can blame Maroney's late-season workload increase on the weather, but by that time, defenses were beginning to figure out Brady, which is why he started to hand off the ball more.

4. Defenses have figured Brady out

During the Pats' first 10 games, Brady threw for 38 TDs, an average of 3.8 TDs per game. Those numbers averaged out throughout a full season would equal 60.8 TDs in a single season, smashing Peyton Manning's record by over 10 touchdowns.

However, defenses were able to stop Brady much easier over the last six games, as he threw for a mere 12 touchdowns over his last six games, an average of two per game.

He took until the final quarter of his last game to reach 50 touchdowns, a milestone he would have reached much earlier under his previous pace. Defenses have learned how to control the Patriots' offense, resulting in lower fantasy point totals for Brady.

5. Brady is a marked man

There is absolutely no way the other 31 NFL teams want the Patriots to repeat their perfect 16-0 regular season. Thus, Brady will be paid special attention to, and possibly blitzed with the same ferocity the New York Giants did when they upset the Pats in the Super Bowl.

The Bottom Line

Brady is definitely worth a look in the first round, but I would be bold enough to rank him second among QBs when I create my fantasy-draft shortlist (Peyton Manning being first among QBs).

Brady will put up a solid 30 TDs and 4,000 yards, barring injury, and will be a consistent week-in-week-out fantasy performer, but he will not come close to the totals he had last year.

I myself would pick Brady late in the 1st round, but no higher. You may do things differently, but if you pick him with the top overall pick in your fantasy draft (or even top three overall picks), do not be surprised if he pulls out an ordinary season.