Bleacher Report - Articles by Marty Andrade

For This Twins Team: No Regrets

Marty Andrade — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 03:03:09 -0400

As the Twins prepare their final stand in defense of their 2009 season tonight against the New York Yankees at the Metrodome, it's important Twins fans realize one thing: There are no expectations. There can be none.

There cannot be any regrets, lamentations or disappointments.

Win or lose, this team deserves celebrating.

This Twins team has done more with less for longer than any other team in the playoffs this year.

The fact the Twins won the AL Central should be victory enough. They are lucky they got that far. And the way they won the AL Central, incredible. It was the most exciting single game most people will ever get the chance to see.

Because the Twins play in a small market and don't receive the media attention other teams do, some of the facts regarding this team have been lost on casual observers.

So lets review:

Joe Crede, the free agent third baseman the Twins brought in this year, played half a season before surrendering to another back surgery.

Nick Punto, who came into the season as the starting shortstop, ended the season as the starting second baseman.

The reason the Twins needed Punto at second is because everyone else put there flopped.

This left the Twins in need of a shortstop, and they had to trade for Orlando Cabrera.

Justin Morneau, perennial All Star and 2006 AL MVP, was sidelined with a back injury after struggling the entire second half.

Starting pitchers Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker all spent time on the disabled list. This represented 80 percent of the planned starting rotation. The Twins drained their farm system of every available pitcher to make up for holes and still the Twins needed to make a trade for a starter (Carl Pavano).

In fact, the Twins set a franchise record for pitchers used in a season.

This team had been stuck plugging lineup holes all year long, among starters and relievers, and among their infielders.

The team that will take the field tonight against the Yankees has almost no resemblance to the team Twins fans saw in April.

So while the odds are stacked against the Twins, understand this season represents a miraculous comeback from mediocrity.

All that remains is for Twins fans to appreciate every minute.

And for the Twins to fight every out.

Joe Mauer Is the AL MVP: Don't Fool Yourself

Marty Andrade — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 20:54:34 -0400

Recently the typical chattering has arisen among mainstream journalists about who deserves the AL MVP award...

...as if there is any question who the most valuable player this year is.

It is Joe Mauer.

Some writers, like Ken Rosenthal, think there's some sort of debate about this.

Most confusing has been the focus on whether the performance of a player's team should somehow be factored into the MVP discussion.

The success of the Yankees this year has been impressive. For some reason there are writers out there who think this matters in the MVP race.

It does not. The MVP award is about the player, not the team.

Trying to bring the team into the discussion is just a way of saying, "Joe Mauer is clearly more valuable than any other player, but I want to vote for someone else."

Yes, there is room for debate as to what constitutes an MVP.

Do you adjust a player's value by his position, using VORP instead of WinShares? Do you factor in defensive skills? Do you use counting stats, like runs created, or ratios, like OPS or wOBA? Does MVP mean marginal or absolute value?

What you don't do is judge a player's value based on his team's record.

To do so would be to convict someone based on his associations, not on his merit; something most people would recognize as unjust.

There is something to be said for making the playoffs and for winning. And there is a way to recognize this, and that is with pennants and World Series rings.

The MVP award is an individual award, and should be given out based on individual merit.

To illustrate this I'd like to use an example from business.

Imagine you're the manager of two department stores.

One is losing money, the other is making money. You have to decide which store to shut down, and which one to keep open.

Easy enough: You close down the store losing money.

But now you have to figure out which employees to keep and which to fire. The best salesman works for the store that loses money. You would probably want to keep your best employee, right?

Even though he's working for a losing store, right?

Of course. It would be stupid to fire an employee making you money. It would also be unjust to do so.

The same thing is happening here. Sports writers are looking for any excuse to not vote for Joe Mauer for MVP, and are even making ridiculous arguments to make it happen. But these arguments are pure idiocy.

The truth is, the Yankees are a media powerhouse and they draw undue press coverage. This makes people who cover baseball think the Yankees have to have the MVP because they have a good record and have a lot of fans.

The numbers, the objective standards by which a player's value is judged, are on Joe Mauer's side. You can use counting stats, ratios, position adjusted or raw; all of them point towards Joe Mauer being the AL MVP this year.

If the writers fail to give him the award, well, it might be time to get rid of the award altogether.

Smith vs. Gardy: Or Lead Harder, Not Smarter

Marty Andrade — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 18:07:42 -0400

It took a little digging. I might have broken a law or two. Or I might have just made it up. In any case, I'm sticking by the story.

Ron Gardenhire recently requested some extra players for his ailing team and Bill Smith refused. Despite losing Justin Morneau and Joe Crede to season ending injuries, Bill Smith is staying pat.

Thanks to inside sources, I have reprinted, below, the actual conversation between Twins' manager Ron Gardenhire and General Manager Bill Smith.

Bill Smith (answering phone): Hey Gardy.

Ron Gardenhire: Hey Bill!

BS: Did you get those flowers I sent you and your wife? Congratulations on your anniversary

Gardy: Thanks Bill, we loved them

BS: Great, what can I do you for Gardy?

Gardy: Well, I'm sorta short of bodies right now

BS: What do you mean? You're still playing nine guys out in the field. I didn't notice a thing.

Gardy: Yeah, right. Look, Morneau's out for the year with that back thing, and Crede looks done too. Hell, they've been giving Crede more epidurals than the Octo-Mom. With Huber hurt with an oblique strain, I think it's time to order up some bats.

BS: What do you mean?

Gardy: Don't play dumb with me Bill, I'm not Sid Hartman. You know I've been asking for Valencia for a couple of months now. He'd be one. Brock Peterson's got a pretty good bat. I could use them both.

BS: Nonsense

Gardy: What?

BS (Waves his hand at the phone): Nonsense...you don't need Danny Valencia.

Gardy: Don't pull that Jedi stuff with me, I need some players. I need some pop, some power.

BS: Says the guy with the Punto/Tolbert/Buscher mancrush.

Gardy: Hey, it's not my fault I got the short end of their Faustian contracts.

BS: Let's just see how the team plays; you don't need any more players (Smith waves his hand at the phone again).

Gardy: Stop it! You're giving me a headache.

BS: Wait and see...wait and see

Gardy: I'll go Mace Windu on you again Bill, focus.

BS: I still don't see a need, we need to wait and see.

Gardy: "Wait an' see?" I've got holes at two spots in my infield. I'm running five guys who play like me out on the field every night.

BS: That's a good thing.

Gardy: No it's not; I've seen my stats. I'm trying to win a playoff race here.

BS: Please, Matt Tolbert and Brendan Harris can hold down third base, and you still have Buscher to play with as a pinch hitter.

Gardy: Do you speak English? Have you been paying attention? I like Tolby and Brian, but I need some offense. Those guys couldn't find an RBI with two bats and a baseball bazooka.

BS: Baseball bazooka?

Gardy: My brain's not working, cut me some slack. But listen: My team can't keep a lead, I've barely got three starters I have any confidence in. I need some bodies. I need some offense. I need some bats.

BS: You just don't get it. You're not as smart as I am. I run a baseball team here. You just argue with umpires. This stuff is complicated.

Gardy: You're just making excuses. You're too cheap to pay a couple of guys two weeks worth of league minimum.

BS: Plus service time. It's all very complicated.

Gardy starts pounding the phone into the wall.

BS: Hello? Is that my clubhouse phone being pounded again? (Bill Smith starts screaming into phone) Dammit Gardy, you're paying for the next phone you break. That makes two this year!

Okay, I don't know what Gardy thinks about phone abuse. But otherwise, that's how the conversation went, 100 percent truth right there...Pinkie swear.

Twins GM Bill Smith Deserves Credit For...Something

Marty Andrade — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 01:41:29 -0400

There's a month left in the baseball season and the Twins now sit in second place in the AL Central, just three and a half games behind the Detroit Tigers.

The Twins have seven games remaining against Detroit, meaning they have control over their own destiny. It's a legitimate race. If the Twins match Detroit's record through the end of the season and somehow manage to take five of seven games in the two remaining series against Detriot—and maybe pick up a win or two after—the Twins would find themselves in the playoffs.

This would be a remarkable achievement considering just how much the Twins have struggled and how bad the pitching has been this year.

The Twins rank 24th in majors and 10th in the American League in ERA. Three of the original five starting pitchers are on the DL. The Twins broke a franchise record when Jon Rauch became the 24th pitcher to throw this season.

Looking at the various stats of the some of the Twins pitchers this year has been a lesson in understanding the difference between "replacement-level" and "really bad."

In a word, it's been a mess.

Some of us, in fact, may have been guilty of prematurely giving up on the Twins.

Really, it's a miracle the Twins are in this situation. It's pure dumb luck.

But the Twins need to take advantage of any luck they can find. In any lifetime there is a finite number of opportunities to make the playoffs. Because of the way the playoffs are structured, the World Championship is simply a crap-shoot. The responsibility of team management is to do their best to increase their chances to make the playoffs and hope for the best from there, or else they are failing the fanbase.

In this light, the Twins front office deserves some credit. Bill Smith has been very conservative in his moves, but consistently made slow and steady progress on improving the team.

Carl Pavano has provided stability to the rotation. Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay will fill important bullpen roles. When Liriano and Perkins come off the DL, the Twins have the option to either shut them down for the year, throw them back into the rotation or limit their playing time in the bullpen. Expanded rosters will allow the Twins to not worry about making room for them in any case. September call-ups will help fill gaps and provide Ron Gardenhire more options during the playoff run.

Not great accomplishments, but good enough.

Smith deserves some criticism too. The bullpen has been a weakness for the last season and a half since Pat Neshek went down with an injury. Taking as long as he did to fix the problem and not taking advantage of big opportunities (like possibly picking up Chad Bradford, among many others) is a huge strike against Smith. He has also been excruciatingly slow in trying to fill gaps in his roster. The Twins are still in need of a second baseman and a shortstop.

He also has been slow in promoting certain players through the farm system. Danny Valencia should be with the Twins right now. Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama should be with the team in September. Steve Tolleson is another player who should have been given a chance this season to hold down the second base spot.

(Smith would reply that his organization feels these players are not "mentally ready" for a playoff race. Of course one could easily point out how Jeff Manship, Anthony Swarzak and Brian Duensing are somehow mentally ready despite being rookies about the same ages as Delaney, Slama, Tolleson and Valencia.)

These criticisms are important to note and detract from Smith's positives. But, by not abandoning the season when things looked bleak and by making moves that improved the team, he put the Twins in a situation where his team could go to the playoffs.

And, to top it off, Smith did this without gutting his farm system (pitcher Yohan Pino, shortstop Tyler Ladendorf and a player to be named later are so far the only losses).

That's an achievement.

Could it have been better? Yes.

Could all the effort be in vain? Sure.

Am I biting my tongue as I write this? Oh yeah.

But with a month left in the season, Twins fans have a reason to pay attention.

Good work, Bill Smith.

Answering Questions On The Minnesota Twins

Marty Andrade — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 02:38:24 -0400

This is where I ask those questions you might have asked had you thought about it:

Are the Twins still contenders in the AL Central race?

The Twins are sitting six games back behind the Detroit Tigers and the Chicago White Sox. This is not insurmountable. The Twins could sweep the remaining games against the Sox and Tigers (13 games total) and match their records down the stretch and sneak a playoff appearance. However, this is extremely unlikely because of the huge holes in the Twins pitching staff. The pitching on this team has completely collapsed. Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey are all on the DL, and they weren't that effective when healthy.

The bullpen is its own disaster area. Since the All Star Game the Twins bullpen has a preposterous 5.97 ERA including a monster sized 6.13 ERA in August. Giving up an .869 OPS to opposing hitters in August, it's hard to see the Twins being able to hold unto any close leads late in important games. These fundamental flaws will get in the way of the Twins winning a playoff spot.

Should Joe Mauer be the AL MVP?

This has been noted by a number of other Twins writers and bloggers, Joe Mauer is having one of the most remarkable seasons ever by a catcher. Joe Mauer leads the AL in OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+ and batting average. In all of baseball he only trails Albert Pujols in SLG and OPS. This domination of these important averages show Mauer to be the most effective offensive player in the AL.

What is more incredible is the fact Mauer plays the toughest position in baseball. The wear and tear of catching normally slows down the best players. Hundreds of foul tips, hundreds of hours spent squatting, constant pounding on the glove hand...catching is not pleasant. There's a reason catchers have so few batting titles and typically have the lowest offensive numbers of any position in baseball.

So let's be clear: Joe Mauer not getting the MVP this year would be a miscarriage of justice. Not voting for him would be morally wrong.

What happens with the Twins starting rotation next year?

You got me. I'm not sure Rick Anderson or anyone else on the Twins has a clue as to how things are going to turn out. What we do know is there will be plenty of players to look at:

Scott Baker

Francisco Liriano

Glen Perkins

Nick Blackburn

Kevin Slowey

Brian Duensing

Jeff Manship

Anthony Swarzak

Armando Gabino

Philip Humber

Kevin Mulvey

Am I optimistic? Sure...why not? Someone in that group will catch the competency virus. Right?

What is the most under-reported story about the Twins this year?

Jason Kubel. The Twins' DH is finally having the season everyone has expected out of him. He's on pace to set career highs in every major offensive category and he leads AL designated hitters in OPS. Unfortunately, Kubel's breakout has been overshadowed by Mauer's historic year and the Twins pitching awfulness. In fact, LaVelle E. Neal III reports Kubel may even be absent from the Silver Slugger ballot despite leading all DHs in OPS.

That's it for now, feel free to leave more questions in the comments section which I can use in future articles.

Twins Notes: Looking Ahead at September Call-ups

Marty Andrade — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 13:55:53 -0400

The Twins have some difficult decisions coming up in the next week as they try to finalize who on their 40-man roster they are going to have playing in Twins uniforms this September.

Teams are allowed to have everyone on their 40-man roster playing in September but the Twins have historically limited these call-ups to seven or eight guys.

Since the team is four games below .500 and they are now sitting six games behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central race, the playoff hopes for the Twins are basically over. It's time for the Twins to think about the future of the club.

Allowing young players to get some experience in the Majors in low-leverage situations accelerates the learning curve and helps alleviate potential problems with nerves.

It also allows teams to get a better idea how good their younger players are to gauge their strategies going into the free agency season.

It's time for the Twins to start making preparations for 2010 and this needs to be addressed with their roster decisions for September.

Here are the players the Twins could bring up right now in September:

Pitchers: R.A. Dickey, Armando Gabino, and Kevin Mulvey.

Position players Drew Butera, Jose Morales, Wilson Ramos, Brian Buscher, Luke Hughes, Matt Macri, Trevor Plouffe, Deibinson Romero, Matt Tolbert, Steve Tolleson and Jason Pridie.

It's hard to say who exactly the Twins want to bring up, but it's likely the knuckleballer Dickey, catcher Jose Morales, infielder Brian Buscher and utility man Matt Tolbert are locks.

Ron Gardenhire likes these players and would want to reward their hard work with a few extra appearances on the Twins.

Since pitching is a weak spot for the Twins, it would not be a surprise to see Mulvey and Gabino up, too. Both players can start, and with a starting staff nearly falling apart, their presence will help keep the Twins competitive.

There are also some players the Twins should call up who are not on the 40-man roster. Relief pitchers Rob Delaney, Anthony Slama, and Juan Morillo should see some playing time, so the Twins know what their bullpen needs are coming into 2010.

This is a problem, as there are only two pitchers the Twins can comfortably drop from their roster without too much concern: Bobby Keppel and R.A. Dickey.

I would put Juan Morillo as the odd man out, but all indications from the Twins' front office shows that Anthony Slama is the pitcher from this group least likely to make it onto the Twins roster.

Danny Valencia, third baseman of the future, probably deserves a good look this September. Adding him to the roster should be easy. Matt Macri has struggled all year in AAA and appears his usefulness is at an end.

The Twins should also send up Luke Hughes, Trevor Plouffe and Steve Tolleson to get playing time at second base and shortstop.

These positions are weaknesses for the Twins and seeing the level of available talent will once again help the Twins understand their real strengths and weaknesses.

Finally, I would also call up catcher Drew Butera. He's on the roster, he's a catcher, he might as well spend some time up in the majors, if only to catch in the bullpen.

Calling people up in September can get expensive, and the Twins are notoriously miserly in their management habits.

However, the Twins are playing for the future and have to spend the money now to avoid overspending on unnecessary washed up veteran free agents in 2010.

R.A. Dickey's on the Fast Track To Nowhere Unless He Picks Up the Slow Knuckler

Marty Andrade — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 04:05:27 -0400

Few can master the most difficult skill in sports: throwing a baseball about 60 feet with no spin in such a way that air resistance moves the ball on a changing and unpredictable trajectory while still hitting the strikezone often enough to induce professional hitters to swing.

R.A. Dickey can already accomplish this task. Since learning the knuckleball in his early thirties Dickey has pitched at or near the replacement level in the Major Leagues and he won an ERA title as a starter in the Pacific Coast League.

However, now that he's been optioned to the minors by the Minnesota Twins, it looks like Dickey has hit his ceiling.

But there is some hope the knuckleballer can find a way to keep a job in professional baseball.

It is the slow knuckleball.

Dickey throws a fast knuckleball. Typically his knuckleball is in the mid-70's for velocity. Normally the knuckleball is thrown between 55 and 65 MPH. This speed allows the ball to move up to 22 inches left and right, in up to four different directions.

Because of all this movement, the slow knuckleball is extremely hard to control. Dickey's fast knuckleball typically only breaks once or twice with nowhere near the amount of distance the slower pitch does. This allows him to get his knuckleball near the strikezone with less effort.

Unfortunately, Dickey's fast knuckleball can often become just a batting practice fastball, when it doesn't flutter.

At least when the slow knuckleball fails to move, it's still a difficult pitch to drive far. Without the energy of high velocity the batter must supply his own power to a slower pitch.

This fact helps the slow knuckleball be an effective pitch. When it works, it dances all over the place. When it doesn't, it acts like an eephus, forcing batters to hit it perfectly and extremely hard or else it stays in the park.

Learning to handle the slow knuckleball will make Dickey's 85 MPH fastball look that much faster, it will still give him the option to throw a fast knuckleball and it should extend Dickey's career a few years longer.

Since his demotion he's already be shelled once. It's time for him to try out the slow knuckleball.

Time for the Twins to Pull the Plug?

Marty Andrade — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 16:40:32 -0400

At 53-55, the Twins look to be on their way to finishing a mediocre season. They are 4.5 games back of the Detroit Tigers, who look to be pulling away with the AL Central Division Title.

After losing their latest series to the Indians' AAA club, some might question how the Twins can even consider themselves in a position to compete at all, let alone in the position to make a trade with the Indians for Carl Pavano.

However, the Twins' remaining baseball schedule shows they are in a good spot to make a legitimate run at the Division title.

With only 54 games remaining, a 4.5 game deficit looks like a large hill to climb. However, the Twins have 10 games remaining against the Detroit Tigers and six games remaining against the White Sox, whom the Twins also trail in the standings.

With this schedule, the Twins control their destiny.

So far, the Twins have played very well against their division rivals. Against the White Sox they have a 7-5 record, while against the Tigers they have a 6-2 record.

Twins' management is clearly making decisions based on the schedule, and their intention is to win.

Earlier this week, as the Twins were losing to the Indians' farm system, I debated with myself whether it was time to pull the plug on this season and start making preparations for next season by bringing up a number of prospects for a cup of coffee. I even Twittered on the topic.

But, opportunities to contend are precious—just ask the Royals fan base. Any team with a legitimate chance at contending for the playoffs owe it to their fanbase and players to make an effort to win.

This has to be balanced with the team's long-term health of course, and so far, the Twins haven't hurt themselves too much in this department.

Twins' fans may want one of two extremes, for the team to call it quits, or to go all out and sacrifice the future for this year. The middle road the Twins have taken isn't going to be popular with anyone, but it's the right call.

Why Orlando Cabrera Does Not Help The Minnesota Twins

Marty Andrade — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 22:41:15 -0400

With just a couple of hours left at the trading deadline, Bill Smith struck a deal with A's GM Billy Beane to acquire shortstop Orlando Cabrera for the 21-year-old shortstop prospect, Tyler Ladendorf.

Ladendorf is a high-ceiling, high-risk prospect with just over 300 professional plate appearances. Beane also paid cash to seal the deal.

It's unlikely Beane paid the Twins enough though.

It needs to be understood that small market teams like the Twins rely on a strong farm system to replenish their supply of major league ready talent. Losing an athletic shortstop before his value and potential was really known hurts the Twins enormously.

This sort of deal needs to result in a clear and immediate advantage over current personnel, so that the Twins have a better chance to win the AL Division.

Unfortunately for Twins' fans, this move doesn't.

Orlando Cabrera has nearly identical offensive numbers to Brendan Harris, with a .687 OPS, compared to Brendan Harris' .674. This wouldn't be a problem if Cabrera was an elite glove at shortstop.

He's not, at least he's not anymore.

In 2008 Harris had a dismal UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games, a measure of defense based on runs saved) of -10.3. So far this year, Harris has recovered well and put up an UZR/150 of just -3.2.

On the other hand, the 34-year-old Orlando Cabrera, has an UZR of -11 this year. That is more than a twenty run shift from Cabrera's 2008 UZR/150.

Cabrera, a good fielder his entire career, is showing clear signs of age.

Simply put, Cabrera is not the player he once was and is not a better option at shortstop compared to what the Twins already had available.

But some would argue Cabrera was better than the man he replaced on the roster, Brian Buscher.

That's true, but the argument doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

Cabrera makes the Twins slightly better in absolute terms because his defense is better than Buscher's. But this absolute advantage is turned into a relative disadvantage because of the way Cabrera will be used by Twins' manager Ron Gardenhire.

Cabrera is now hitting in the No. 2 spot in the Twins' lineup. This is just going to give extra at-bats to a mediocre hitter and possibly kill some late inning rallies by putting a black hole in front of the Twins' best hitters.

Also, it needs to be understood that Cabrera is not replacing Brian Buscher's role on the Twins. Brendan Harris is now a primary bench player and back-up third baseman. So the only upside to this trade is the handful of at bats that would have gone to Buscher that will now be taken by Harris.

But Harris' OPS versus right-handed pitchers is .696. Brian Buscher had an OPS versus those same pitchers of .731 (he was used almost exclusively against righties). Again, no edge, angle, advantage, or value added.

So, the Twins gave up a legitimate prospect, take on part of Cabrera's salary (depending on how much cash Billy Beane gave up for the trade) and give Gardy another low OPS rally killer to throw into the No. 2 spot in the lineup, for nothing.

Congratulations Bill Smith.

Dear Minnesota Twins Fans: Don't Panic

Marty Andrade — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 03:17:44 -0400

Douglas Adams' "Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" featured user-generated content and a graphic user interface years before those ideas gained a cultural foothold. On the cover of the fictional guide were the words "Don't Panic."

I wish Twins fans would heed the advice.

After a very rough road trip where the Twins went 4-6, including a 16-1 thrashing delivered by the Oakland A's, some Twins fans were already suggesting Bill Smith should pull the plug on the season and start a fire sale.

(An aside, what on Earth did the Twins have to offer in a fire sale? Michael Cuddyer and Joe Crede? Big sale there. The Twins don't have the overpriced mediocre veterans necessary to deal to unsuspecting contenders in a fire sale.)

In reality, the Twins road trip along the West Coast meant nothing. What matters are the numerous series the Twins have coming up against the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers. The Twins have 16 more games against their division rivals this season.

The Twins are an even .500 on the year and are only three games behind Detroit. A series sweep or two, an injury or two, or pure random fluctuations of performance could put the Twins into the playoffs.

Naysayers talk about the Twins offensive black holes at second base and shortstop, the lack of quality starting pitching and "one good reliever."

Fair points all. But the Twins do have resources inside the organization to upgrade the two infield positions.

As for pitching, it is true the Twins lack star power.

The xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) stats among the Twins starters and starter options aren't great:

Scott Baker 4.14

Francisco Liriano 4.55

Glen Perkins 4.91

Nick Blackburn 4.97

R.A. Dickey 5.00

Anthony Swarzak 5.32

Bobby Keppel 4.82

Brian Duensing 6.15

The median xFIP among qualified starters in the American League is about 4.50. The means the Twins have one above average starter and a group of below average Joes.

A strong offense can give a team enough runs to make up for the poor pitching and the Twins are slightly above average in that department.

A good bullpen can also help pick up where the starters fail.

Okay, so the Twins need to make a move here. Converting a starter is an option (converting a starter to a reliever results in about an .80 drop in ERA and Liriano looks to be a good choice based on the distribution of his ERA over innings).

Also, there are some minor league options and there's always the open market (Cla Meredith was traded for some gum I think).

Still, despite the Twins' shortcomings there is plenty to be positive about as the playoff race starts.

So don't panic.

The Twins' Trade Bait

Marty Andrade — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 03:47:43 -0400

The trade deadline is fast approaching and the Twins need help. The Twins could use an infielder, a relief pitcher, and a solid starter. Of course, couldn't any team?

That said, here are some players the Twins should be shopping around to contending teams:

Joe Crede

The aging and hurting veteran has a big slugging percentage and an elite glove at third base. Any team could use him as a bench player and he does well as a starter too. The Twins don't have much to lose when it comes to Crede, top prospect Danny Valencia looks ready for the majors.

Brendan Harris

Harris is a classic "tweener." He's not a good enough glove to play consistently up the middle and not a good enough bat to man a flank spot in the infield. This makes him a good and versatile bench player. While the Twins are weak up the middle, Harris might bring enough value to make up for this fact. If it means getting a solid pitcher, the Twins should sell Harris.

R.A. Dickey

The "knuckleballer" has enjoyed a good half of baseball and he has basically cost the Twins nothing. Teams looking for an able back-of-the-rotation starter or someone just to eat up low-leverage innings and save other bullpen arms should be ready to part with something for Dickey. For the Twins, any something will be gravy.

Ben Revere

Yeah, that's right, I'd be looking to shop one of the Twins top prospects. Revere has been performing very well so far in the minors and if the price is right, the Twins can afford to part with the young center fielder.

Aaron Hicks

Ditto for Aaron Hicks. The Twins are heavy on outfielders in their farm system and short in other areas. Hicks is the Twins "top" prospect according to numerous online pundits. He could bring in some real swag. One caveat: I'd trade either Hicks or Revere, but not both.

Positive Spin on the Minnesota Twins

Marty Andrade — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 18:47:34 -0400

As the Twins are approaching the trade deadline, the cries for the Twins to "do something" are working their way through the Twins' blogosphere. The meme is that the Twins need a starter, a reliever, and a middle infielder, or else the team won't be competitive down the stretch.

This is despite the fact that the Twins are competitive right now. The team has consistently played at or above .500 baseball, and a little luck could throw the team the AL Division title.

There is plenty to be optimistic about when it comes to this team, and here's a short list:

1. The Twins Are Learning Who Can Play and Who Can't

By playing so many guys both in the bullpen and in the field, the Twins are learning who can play and who can't.

The Twins have given plenty of playing time to guys like Matt Tolbert and Alexi Casilla in the field and Brian Duensing and Bobby Keppel in the bullpen. And even though a lot of these players struggled, the Twins now have a good idea about the quality of play they can expect from their ample supply of replacement players.

This information will be invaluable down the stretch.

2. The Twins Have Bullpen Depth

They have guys like Jesse Crain, Juan Morillo, and Rob Delaney pitching out of the bullpen in Rochester right now.

Crain has had a lot of success with the Twins, and he's getting time to work out whatever problems he's having with his pitching.

Morillo can throw a ball 98 mph with more ease than it takes most of us to get off a couch. If he can find some level of control, he will make a great late-season arm option for Gardenhire.

Rob Delaney is a prospect who has had some incredible numbers in the minors. If he conquers AAA this year, he should get a shot at the majors.

3. The Twins Have Plenty of Starters

They're not dominant guys with unhittable stuff, but theoretically they should get stronger as the season goes on. Plus, with Anthony Swarzak, Kevin Mulvey, and R.A. Dickey able to start as well, the Twins have a collection of guys who can give the team a chance to win on a regular basis.

4. R.A. Dickey

Dickey is more than just a potential starter and mop-up guy; his worth extends well beyond these duties.

He can pitch on short rest and put a lot of innings on his arm, which spares the bullpen from wear and tear. He can start, and he can relieve. He's also good trade bait.

The Twins don't have a lot of resources invested in him, and other teams might be interested in his above average ERA. The Twins can turn a profit on him in a trade while not mortgaging the future.

5. The Twins Have a Lot of Infield Options

Casilla, Punto, and Matt Tolbert don't look like they're getting the job done, Joe Crede takes a lot of days off, Brendan Harris doesn't really have a good position, and Brian Buscher has struggled to get hits in limited playing time.

But Steve Tolleson and Danny Valencia are swinging good wood in the minors, and Trevor Plouffe can play well in the middle infield. The Twins just signed Mark Grudzielanek to a minor league deal, and with other options like Luke Hughes and Matt Macri in the infield or Jose Morales at catcher, the Twins have access to a lot of very functional players as the season progresses.

6. Then There Are the All Stars

Joe Nathan, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer. There is no underestimating the impact these players will have on the team. Add in Jason Kubel, Denard Span, and Michael Cuddyer, and it's clear that the Twins have the star power to win big.

While I think the Twins should be open to some trades if the price is right, there is no reason to panic when it comes to this team.

If I Were the Twins GM for a Day

Marty Andrade — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 16:07:47 -0400

The Twins sit withing striking distance of the AL Central Division Title. So far the team has been playing .500 ball, but the division is weak this year and a few adjustments could make the Twins strong enough to compete through the playoff race.

Unfortunately, the Twins aren't statistically savvy and the organization has a few mental blocks that get in the way of making difficult and often subtle decisions regarding personnel. So, if I could take the crown away from Bill Smith and be the Twins GM for a day, here are the moves I'd make:

-I would fire Nick Punto. Under normal circumstances the veteran utility player has some value if used properly. Punto can play every infield position, is a patient switch hitter who can force opposing pitchers to rack up a high pitch count and he's fast enough to be a threat on the base-paths. Altogether, he's slightly better than a replacement level player. But Twins manager Ron Gardenhire doesn't see him as a useful utility player. Instead, Punto has started nearly every game at either shortstop or second base despite not having the level a talent necessary to be a MLB starter. The only way to stop this misuse of Punto is to fire him.

-Alexi Casilla would be sent down to Rochester and Steve Tolleson would replace him at second base. Tolleson recently got promoted to Triple-A Rochester and he may not be ready for the big leagues but he should be able to provide as much value as Alexi Casilla. Forcing Tolleson to face the tough MLB learning curve now will provide future dividends next year and in the future while Tolleson provides basically the same value as other options this year.

-Trevor Plouffe, who has basically matched his career minor league OPS in Triple-A in the last two years, would take over the shortstop position for the Twins. Once again, Plouffe would be forced to go through a steep learning curve in the Majors. As far as short term value goes, it's a lateral move. However, this move once again makes next year's team stronger without weakening this year's team.

-With two rookies up the middle and an aging Joe Crede at third base, Brendan Harris becomes extremely important as the team's utility player. Harris would likely play almost everyday somewhere and that's just fine.

-Mike Redmond would be offered a coaching position somewhere, but he'd be done with the Twins. Father time has finally caught up to Redmond, who has thrown out just 4.8 percent of runners trying to steal. Red is also struggling mightily at the plate, but this wouldn't be a problem is he was holding his own defensively. Jose Morales would take his place as the back-up catcher to Joe Mauer. Drew Butera, a low offense--high defense catcher, would take over as the third string catcher.

-An edict would be sent to Ron Gardenhire stating the following: Carlos Gomez would play everyday unless hurt or resting; No one with an OPS under .700 is to hit in the No. 2 hole; R.A. Dickey is not to come into the game with runners on base unless absolutely necessary; No more arguing with umpires except on day games.

So sayeth the King.

Time for the Twins to Sign Joe Crede Longterm?

Marty Andrade — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 22:31:37 -0400

Since Corey Koskie left the Twins at the end of 2004 the club failed to find someone to fill his position at third base.

Over the years the club relied on a committee of players including Michael Cuddyer, Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Matt Tolbert, Brendan Harris, Mike Lamb, Matt Macri, Terry Tiffee, Luis Rodriguez, Juan Castro, and a bunch of others to cover the hole in the organization.

The hot corner was a huge weakness for the twins over the last four years. From replacement players to free agents, the Twins just couldn’t find a good answer.

In 2009 the Twins brought Joe Crede to Minnesota from hated division rivals The Chicago White Sox. Signed to an incentive laden contract, the former All Star received positive if lukewarm reception around the Twins blogosphere.

The general conclusion was whether or not the signing worked out, the price was right.

Through the first half of the 2009 season Crede has hit .230/.297/.435 which is close to his .255/.305/.446 career slash line. He has sat out 20 games in the first half with various nagging injuries but he is on pace to play in more games than he has in three years.

In comparison, Joe Mauer, has played in sixty games thanks to missing the first month of the season due to injury. That’s only five games less than Crede.

On defense, Crede is the best in the league. His Ultimate Zone Rating, available from FanGraphs, is the highest of any third baseman in the Majors. This balances out the fact Crede is an average to below average bat.

Having Crede at third base this year has been great for the Twins. Crede’s bat has added some punch to a lineup that needed help and his defense has been superb.

The question being raised by some Twins fans and on-line pundits found here and elsewhere, do the Twins sign Crede for 2010 and beyond?

Let’s hope not.

The Twins have gotten everything they could have possibly hoped for from Joe Crede. He was a good glove with a bat that could occasionally hit for lots of power. But he’s not a long-term answer at third.

He’s 31 years old, over the hill for baseball players, and has already missed a quarter of the Twins games so far this year despite being “healthy.”

It might be a different story if the Twins didn’t have Danny Valencia smashing the ball in Rochester this year. The 25 year old Twins Prospect has hit .303/.363/.487 over his minor league career and has hit .345/.361/.534 in 15 games so far in AAA following his recent promotion.

Valencia is also reputed to have a good glove at third base and there’s some evidence for this in the limited statistics available.

Valencia projects to be a competent and able Major League player.

And Valencia won’t cost the Twins millions of dollars.

The Twins also have Brendan Harris, Brian Buscher, and AAA prospect Luke Hughes to cover the third base spot in 2010 in case something goes wrong with Valencia.

So, when it comes to Joe Crede, the Twins should pass on re-signing him. They have cheaper options available that can provide the same level of performance without concerns about age or nagging injuries.

Even a best-case scenario in 2010 for Joe Crede would have the Twins being forced to find someone to play part-time when Joe takes his regular off days like he has this year.

Congratulate Crede for putting up a good show and appreciate his ball playing talent. But let’s hope the Twins do the smart thing and let Crede walk next year.

The Worst Minnesota Twins All Stars of All Time

Marty Andrade — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 20:03:42 -0400

Since the All-Star Game is in part a fan popularity contest, there are other deserving players who didn't make the team. Since each team in both leagues has to be represented, there are players who make the team who don't really deserve it.

The Twins have seen both sides of these unfortunate outcomes. In 1987, despite having a playoff contending club that would later win the World Series, they had only one representative on the AL All-Star game team.

Thanks to some truly horrific teams fielded in the 1980's and 1990's, we sent some really unaccomplished players to the summer classic. Here are the worst of the bunch, in no particular order.

Ron Coomer

Selected in 1999 at the age of 32, Coomer was well past his prime. He had a pathetic 82 OPS+ that year but was a decent enough glove at the flank infield positions.

To be fair, Coomer did well in the first half of 1999. He is a tough case because he spent too many years bombing hits in Triple-A before playing in the majors at the age of 28.

His combined 108 OPS+ in the years he played before he turned 30 give a glimpse of what he might have done had he gotten a fair chance at the big leagues in his mid-20's.

Was he a respectable player? Sure.

Was he worthy of being an All Star? Not at all.

Tim Laudner

Tim was a halftime catcher for a majority of his career before getting some full-time work for the '87 World Champion Twins.

In 1988, he played in his first and only All-Star game. Laudner was a decent hitter for a catcher and he could handle his position with competence.

His 99 OPS+ in 1988 was his second best offensive year in his career. Again, a good first half was enough to overcome a career of competent mediocrity.

Dave Engle

In the early 1980's, the Twins sported some really bad teams, including the 1982 club that lost 102 games.

In 1984, the franchise showed some signs of life, finishing with an even 81-81 record. Engle was the Twins' only All Star that season. He ended up hitting .266 with an 87 OPS+.

The previous season, the Engle had a respectable season, hitting .305 with an .800 OPS. The Twins catcher's batting average was over .300 in the first half, which was good enough to make the All-Star game.

Was he a terrible All-Star pick? Probably not.

However, Kent Hrbek was much more deserving that year.

Doug Corbett

I know what you're saying, "The Doug Corbett?"

A lifetime middle reliever who spent a couple seasons as a closer for the Twins in the early 1980's, Corbett was the Twins lone All Star in 1981.

A strike-shortened season allowed Corbett to record a grand total of 17 saves for the Twins. Over the years, he was a respectable player.

His career 125 ERA+ is nothing to laugh at. However, he only converted 71 percent of his save opportunities in his career. Joe Nathan, the current Twins All-Star Closer, has converted 90 percent of his save chances.

Eric Milton

A typical Twins starter, Eric Milton isn't really flashy, dominant or overpowering.

When he made the All-Star team in 2001, it was really a gift. A solid pitching record and a better-than-normal ERA covered the entry requirements for the big left-handed pitcher.

An ERA+ of 106 at the end of the season was indicative of Milton's true abilities. While he's still knocking around professionally, Milton will never see 100 wins.

An honorable mention goes to Joe Mays. His 48-70 career record isn't what you would expect from an All Star.

However, his 2001 All-Star season was worthy of the summer classic, whether it was a fluke or not.

Kevin Slowey: Not an All Star

Marty Andrade — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 18:04:00 -0400

I can feel the indignant outrage already exploding across barber shops and sports bars across all of Minnesota.

"Why isn't Kevin Slowey on the All Star Team?"

"Don't they know he has ten wins?"

All baseball fans tend to become enamored with one stat. It could be batting average or home runs for hitters, wins or ERA for pitchers, or UZR for sabermetricians.

Twins' fans will just have to live with reality. Kevin Slowey is not an All-Star, and for good reasons. Even traditional baseball fans have to acknowledge Slowey's 4.86 ERA. As many baseball know, ERA isn't the best pitcher's stat. Another, more accurate stat is xFIP, or expected fielding independent pitching.

Slowey's xFIP is 4.35. Slowey's a better pitcher than his ERA, but not by much. Slowey's xFIP puts him just past the median level for qualified starters. So he's better than average, by a hair.

Despite a higher than average xFIP, Slowey PRC, or Pitcher's Runs Created, is near the bottom third of qualified pitchers. This is mainly because Slowey has pitched just 90 innings so far this year, compared to the AL average near 100 IP and Zack Greinke's league-leading 121 IP.

Slowey has also surrendered a .502 slugging percentage to opposing hitters, good for not-quite-worst in the league among starters. This is balanced by the fact he's not-quite-best in the league at avoiding walks.

By rough estimation, Slowey is a completely average American League starter. His ten wins so far this year is the result of good luck and healthy run support.

This is not to take anything away from being average. An average, or more accurately, a median major league pitcher has a lot of value and is very difficult to replace. Most teams would be more than happy with average starters.

Slowey is great in a completely average way and I hope he pitches for the Twins for years to come.

He's just not an All Star, and that's alright.

Joe Nathan's Silly Saves

Marty Andrade — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 02:28:18 -0400

The “Save” is a bad stat with good intentions.

It was an attempt to quantify the contributions made by relief pitchers in a way easily grasped by fans and sportswriters. Since most sportswriters are pretty dense, one can really appreciate the sentiment.

Unfortunately, as the save stat evolved, so too did the role of the reliever. In Joe Garagiola’s book “Baseball is a Funny Game” we learn that baseball managers relied on their best bullpen reliever, known as the “short man” to pitch the team out of tight spots when the game’s outcome was in doubt. It didn’t matter when this was, it could be in the ninth inning or the sixth. These relievers eventually picked up the nickname “fireman” because they put out fires.

There is no stat for “fires put out by.” Today, there are leverage indexes and win-percentage stats which give us some indication of the value of a pitcher’s performance based on the specific circumstances of the game. Learning these advanced sabermetrics can be daunting endeavour for the uninitiated.

It’s just easier to count up saves.

So, eventually, managers started to manage not around the circumstances of the game but by the circumstances of save stat. As a consequence, often a team’s best pitcher is not used when the game is in doubt.

Depending on what analysis you use, there is about a three percent difference between using an exceptional pitcher in a save situation and using a mediocre pitcher. The three out, three run save is easy to get.

But what about the four run, one out save? Nathan already has two this year and is likely to get more. On June 28th against the Cardinals, and on July 1st against the Royals Nathan was able to put two easy saves up on the board with little effort.

The reason is because in both games knuckleballer R.A. Dickey was given the task to pitch the last frame. Even good knuckleballers have high WHIPs (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched). They allow a lot of baserunners. Good knuckleballers deal with these ups and downs and Dickey has shown incredible growth this year in handling difficult situations throwing his exceptionally fast butterflies.

In both games Dickey worked through trouble and got two outs. But, once the tying run is on-deck, it’s a save situation. Dickey goes out, Nathan goes in, game over. And the stupidity continues

Maybe these saves will provide Nathan the attention he deserves. Based on sabermetric stats like xFIP and PRC, Nathan ranks among the top three closers in baseball this year. He deserves a spot on the All Star team and getting five or six cheap saves might get him the attention of the national media.

But it’s still really stupid.

13 Fearless Minneosta Twins Predictions

Marty Andrade — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 22:53:09 -0400

Fearless predictions for the final half of the Twins season:

-Kevin Slowey will not get 20 wins.

-Scott Baker will win eight more games.

-R.A. Dickey’s ERA will stay below 4.00.

-Justin Morneau won’t hit more than 30 home runs.

-Joe Mauer will not hit .400, or even .390, but he will hit 25 home runs.

-Joe Crede will miss 20 more games.

-Delmon Young’s OPS will slip above .700.

-Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla will have a combined OPS nearly equal to that of national league pitchers in the second half.

-Danny Valencia will don a Twins Uniform before the end of the year.

-Trevor Plouffe will start at least 10 games for the Twins.

-Jason Kubel will have the third highest OPS on the team.

-Joe Nathan will blow four more saves.

-Carlos Gomez will start less than half the remaining games after the All Star break in Center Field.

Minnesota Twins Need to Make a Move: Send Gomez and Young to the Minors

Marty Andrade — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 01:42:01 -0400

The Twins are struggling early this year. It might be time for a change of personnel. Right now the Twins have a few weaknesses, chief among them the fact their offense is inconsistent and inadequate. Two players at the AAA affiliate in Rochester can provide some added offense without sacrificing defense significantly.

Dustin Martin is a swift footed outfielder wielding a golden bat so far in the International League while infielder Matt Macri is entering his most productive year statistically and is showing it. Admittedly, the sample size here is small but at the moment there is little to lose.

The two young outfielders the Twins are banking their future on right now are Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez. Currently, the speedy Gomez is failing to hit his weight while Delmon Young has shown no patience at the plate in very little playing time.

Sending these two players down should allow them to play every day and develop a bit as hitters. It will also save the Twins some service time and might help push arbitration eligibility back a year for Carlos Gomez.

Both Delmon and Carlos are only 23 years of age and could both still develop into All Stars. Taking a breather right now and getting extra playing time and at bats to work on hitting will do them both a lot of good.

There are other problems too. Four of the five starting pitchers and two relievers are failing to perform at the major league level. Third baseman Joe Crede is having problems at the plate. Crede is a veteran who wouldn't learn anything in the minors; if he fails to perform he should be released.

These problems might fix themselves but if they still exist in mid-May the Twins are going to have serious problems this year.

This doesn't mean it's time to panic or to give up on the season yet. In fact, this early in the year there is still plenty of time for many of these players to improve and the team as a whole to turn around.

But looking at Rochester shows there are other players ready to answer any calls from the big club. These include starting pitchers Anthony Swarzak, Brian Duensing, and Kevin Mulvey, shortstop Trevor Plouffe, and utility man Matt Tolbert.

Depending on how the rest of April goes, Twins GM Bill Smith needs to look inside the organization to produce the offense his team needs to win.

Besides, a little development now will do Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young a lot of good further down the line. Making the investment in these players might make for a really competitive team when the Twins start playing outdoors next year at their new stadium.

Division Debate: Joe Crede Dons a Minnesota Twins Jersey

Marty Andrade — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 02:03:03 -0500

Human mortality wouldn't be such a struggle for mankind if it weren't coupled with the slow and methodical collapse of our physical bodies. What men ought do with the finite days of their lives is a question which belongs to philosophy.

What Joe Crede will bring to the Twins in 2009 is a question which belongs on the Bleacher Report.

My respected BR colleague and White Sox fan extraordinaire, Chris Pennant, has tackled the question of Joe Crede's move to Minnesota already. I say respected colleague now, before the start of the season; but come April the blood feud between the White Sox and the Twins begins anew.

Then Pennant will become just another casualty, collateral damage in the Twins march to the playoffs.

Pennant supposes Crede will bring tears to White Sox fans as he brings his “clutch” hitting to the Twins. And yes, from my own memory I do remember Joe Crede always seeming to come up with a clutch hit or an impossible grab at third base which stopped a Twins' rally cold.

Could Joe Crede be the Homeric hero who brings to the Twins the glory of a division title?

I don't think so.

As I said, humans are mortal and humans age. Our skin and flesh struggles against the elements and time itself. And time never loses.

Crede has already had a great deal of back problems. He hasn't played in more than a 100 games in two years. His defense, as measured by his Zone Rating (specifically RZR from the Hardball Times) and Range Factor has been falling in the last few years. He'll be 31 years old this season.

Time is likely up for Joe Crede.

Crede is likely a non-factor for the Twins this year. Offensively he's no better than other players the Twins have around. Brian Buscher came into Twins camp swinging a sweet bat; Brendan Harris projects to be a better bat than Joe Crede and the Twins have two young players (Danny Valencia and Steve Tolleson) who could be ready for The Show by midseason..

The Twins spent millions of dollars to move laterally...

Assuming Crede can even stay healthy.

Since Corey Koskie left the Twins third base has been a sore spot. Finally, there is some talent inside the organization ready to fill the void Koskie left. Unfortunately the tendency to overvalue veterans the Twins have shown over the years has yet to subside.

The Twins have a good team. As for Crede, he will likely make no difference whatsoever throughout the year. If he makes it that long.

Another New Bleacher Report Author Enters The Realm

Marty Andrade — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 00:12:35 -0500

Scene: We join Young(ish) Enthusiastic Blogger (YEB) in his study as he’s working through some bit of inspiration, soon to be forgotten in his draft folder.

Enter a visitor appearing in a flash of light.

Visitor: Wha…? Where is this?

YEB: You have entered my study, I’m Yeb.

Visitor: How?

YEB: I can see by your confusion you must be new to the realm?

Visitor: Realm?

YEB: You’re newer than I thought, you’ve entered my study through use of the portal, it’s a tool of the writer’s realm. It can transfer a writer anywhere they wish, once one learns how to navigate its many rivers. For generations writers have relied on the varied pathways of the Muses to produce material and find inspiration. You accessed the realm while you were writing something.

Visitor: Why am I here?

YEB: Hmmm, usually newbies are transferred to an initial guide for an introduction after being led to the realm by a guide. You clearly are an apprentice to no one, so your case is a bit more complicated. Normally writers are helped along this process by someone else, but it looks like you’re alone. You weren’t helped out at all by someone like a librarian or an English professor?

Visitor: Hell no, I just started writing about sports on the Bleacher Report a few months ago, I was trying to show why Jason Bartlett is overrated because he makes a lot of errors, I started searching online and then poof, I’m here.

YEB: The Muses have a sick sense of humor then.

Visitor: What are you talking about?

YEB: Your analysis is deeply flawed.

Visitor: Wait a second, you’re one of those stats geeks? And…wait…you’re a senior writer on the Bleacher Report, which is ridiculous as you haven’t written a column in several months, and…you’re an embarrassingly loyal Twins fan. How do I know that stuff?

YEB: The realm is fully integrated with the net, you just ran a Google search in your mind and all was delivered.

Visitor: Cool.

YEB: Normally a journeyman writer or a librarian gives you some warning about the possibilities in using writer’s portals.

Visitor: So, as long as I’m here, I guess I can ask why my analysis is so wrong.

YEB: It’s simple, players who make a lot of errors do so because they get to a lot of fielded balls in play. Errors are in fact a rough proxy for range. Luckily, there are better ways of judging a player’s fielding ability. My guess is you’ve been warped by some high school baseball coach, or Tim McCarver.

Visitor: My coach seems like he knows what he’s talking about.

YEB: Wait, you’re still in high school?

Visitor: Well, sure.

YEB slams his head into his keyboard.

YEB: You’re lucky you weren’t thrown into one of the abysses which pocket the realm. J.D. Salinger hasn’t been able to write a book since he hit a metaphysical abyss and had to find himself again.

Visitor: Salinger?

YEB: Maybe it’d be a good idea if you were to, you know, stop writing for a while.

Visitor: Writers write, jerk.

YEB: Well, I warned you. Just read some books once in a while.

Visitor: Maybe you can answer me this, why haven’t you written in such a long time?

YEB: When the biggest news story of the offseason is the signing of Nick Punto, it’s hard to find a lot of inspiration, even with help from the realm. Plus, I’m working on an MBA, so my writing time is at a premium.

Visitor: I like Nick Punto, he’s scrappy.

YEB slams his head into his keyboard.

YEB: I think it’s time for you to go, before I throw you into an abyss.

Visitor: You’re not much of a guide.

YEB: And you’re not much of an apprentice.

And with that, a quick flash of light and the visitor was gone. YEB returned to his keyboard and began writing. A minute later, through the writer’s ether, YEB heard the faint screams of his neophyte visitor, caught in an abyss no doubt. With a deep sigh, he opened a portal, and dived in, vanishing from his study.

Celebrating Two Years on the Bleacher Report

Marty Andrade — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 09:17:00 -0400

It was two years ago today I published my first column on the Bleacher Report after being actively recruited by one of the founders (who will go nameless here lest he be willing to take credit or accept responsibility for his actions).

That’s right, I was recruited.

Go figure.

Well, I’m glad I was. Two years later as an irregular contributor of dubious quality I have amassed 58,303 article reads over 119 articles. The Bleacher Report has given me access to a huge audience of people; an audience I was never able to develop after nearly five years of blogging.

(Think of it this way, after 4000 posts on a political blog respected enough to earn press credentials to a national convention this year, I accumulated 130,000 hits. Two years and less than 120 articles on Bleacher Report have given me about half the number of hits my blog has, a tremendous difference in readership efficiency, which would be a great new blog stat.)

Over the last two years I have enjoyed writing for the Bleacher Report. Experiencing everything from the glee of making an accurate prediction months ahead of time to the pain of having a great story get sixed because a source wouldn’t stick by their story.

More annoying are some of the things I didn’t publish. An unfinished, never published column of mine from October of 2007 accurately predicted the rise of Tampa Bay Rays. I also put my own money on the line by “investing” in baseball cards based on sabermetric research. Those purchases beat the market thanks to the improbable story of Denard Span.

[In my mind, the true test of any pundit is making specific and accurate predictions of future events. Otherwise, what’s the point?]

Another column I hoped to write featured YEB, the character who has accompanied me throughout my tenure here, battling against Ryan Alberti in a cage death match of erudition versus readability.

Though I’ve always wanted to, I had never weighed in on any of the debates which brought up questions of editors vs. writers, writing as art vs. writing as information, writing for an online audience and all the other elements of style which interested me.

Count me in the camp of writers who believe in paragraphs made up of more than one sentence, the right of semi-colons to exist in the digital world and the Harvard comma.

Yeah, I’m a dinosaur; I admit it.

Kudos to Davis Nemetz, Alexander Freund, Bryan Goldberg, Ryan Alberti and a host of others who have made the last two years on Bleacher Report so enjoyable.

The End of a Century of Grief? Chicago Cubs In the Playoffs Again

Marty Andrade — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 21:09:00 -0400

Since 1876, the Cubs franchise has been playing professional baseball at the most elite level (in fact, even before 1876 the franchise was playing in the National Association; so this franchise is really old, John McCain old). They last won a World Series in 1908. Since then they’ve had 12 playoff appearances.

In 1910, just two years after their World Championship, the Cubs were back in the World Series. Led by Frank Chance (of Tinker to Evers fame), the Cubs went 104-50 in the regular season. Unfortunately, the Cubs fell apart in the series against the Athletics (the Philadelphia Athletics).

Chief Bender and Jack Coombs shut down the Cubs offense while Chance couldn’t find a magical arm on his pitching staff. The Cubs barely avoided getting swept. The two teams had similar records but the Cubs had a stronger lineup and better pitching. This was just the opening salvo of a Championship drought of historic proportions for the Cubs.

Eight years later, in 1918, the Cubs were facing a team with a lesser record in the World Series. Even in the series, the Cubs scored more runs than their American League opponents. Unfortunately, that team featured the best left handed pitcher in baseball, Babe Ruth. Ruth, along with teammate Carl would-be-in-the-HOF-had-he-not-killed-a-man Mays combined to give up four earned runs in four winning starts to win the series in six games.

The World Series in 1929 was an excusable loss for the Cubs. The Philadelphia Athletics featured offensive wizards Mickey Cochrane, Al Simmons, Jimmie Foxx, and 20-game winners Lefty Grove and George Earnshaw. The Cubs, despite having comparable team stats during the regular season, lost the series in five games, managing to win only one game thanks to an error and a Kiki Cuyler single.

In 1932, the Cubs ran into Babe Ruth again. This time, it was his bat that did the talking. He, along with Murderer’s Row veterans Lou Gehrig and Tony Lazzeri crushed the Chicago faithful in a four game sweep, outscoring the Cubs 37-19.

Just a few years later, the Cubs made the World Series again. This time they fought a talented Detroit Tigers and gave a spirited effort, losing the series 4-2. Schoolboy Rowe, a pitcher for the Tigers, proved to be the dominating performance. This series was one the Cubs allowed to get away as few could suggest their team was inferior to the Detroit Tigers.

How many more disappointments can there be?

In 1938, the Yankees crushed them again.

In 1945, an inferior Tigers team beat them in seven games. In fact, 1945 was the last legitimate chance the Cubs had at winning the World Series. Hank Borowy and Paul Derringer take the title of being the two biggest goats in Cubs playoff history. They gave up five runs in the first inning of Game Seven to end any hope for a Cubs victory.

In 1984, the Cubs made the playoffs and lost to an inferior San Diego Padres team. The cubs crushed the Padres in the first two games, outscoring their opponents 17-2. They lost the next three games. The losing pitchers in those three games? All-Star Rick Sutcliffe, future Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley (as a starter) and Lee Smith.

The Padres would lose the Series to the Detroit Tigers in five games.

1989, National League Championship Series, Will Clark and Kevin Mitchell of the San Francisco Giants would combine for 15 RBI and 13 RS to account for 80% of the runs scored against the Cubs. Greg Maddux, pitching for the Cubs, had a 19-12 record with a 2.95 ERA during the regular season but was rocked for 11 earned runs in less than eight innings of work during the NLCS.

The Giants would later be crushed by the Athletics in the World Series.

Thanks the addition of a Wild Card to baseball, the Cubs made the playoffs again in 1998. They were wiped out by the Atlanta Braves.

The Wild Card is cheating anyway, so Cubs fans shouldn’t lament this lost opportunity.

In 2003…

Well, I’ll leave that one alone.

2007? The Cubs lost to the team that lost to the team that lost to the Red Sox in the World Series.

2008? Some say they’re best team in the baseball.

In 1876, the Chicago professional baseball franchise which would later become the Cubs went 52-14. Al Spalding went 47-12 as the primary pitcher and also had .312 batting average and 121 OPS+ for the franchise that year.

At night, just before the morning sunrise, you can see Al Spalding. He spends his time around dusty sandlots and municipal ball fields. Most baseball scribes know where to find him. Not that it’s any use, he doesn’t talk much.

But once, not long ago, I met him in a southeastern Minnesota crossroads. He looked excited. We walked together for a while then just before sunrise I asked him if this was the year. Was this the end of a century of tears for Cubs fans and closet Cubs fans everywhere?

He looked at me and decided to talk.

And as he spoke, he disappeared in the morning sunrise. He didn’t come back the next night.

And I knew…

It’s going to be good watching this playoff season.

Minnesota Twins Roundtable

Marty Andrade — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 21:30:00 -0400

Special thanks to Andrew Kneeland and Josh Taylor for doing the roundtable this week.

1) Recently, the Star Tribune reported that the Twins were trying to acquire Jarrod Washburn from the Seattle Mariners. The deal fell through when the Mariners tried to get too much for Washburn, who has been unimpressive this year. Does this event tell us a lot about Twins GM Bill Smith, or is its significance being exaggerated in the Twins' blogosphere?

Andrew Kneeland: I really haven't made that much of a deal out of it at all. I think it is being over-dramatized and is really just another attempt by the Twins to mess with others' heads. It must have worked.

Josh Taylor: While I was incredibly disturbed by the talk of the Twins acquiring Washburn, the most important thing about this is that the Twins ended up not making a deal with the Mariners and their delusional front office. Washburn costs too much for a mediocre pitcher, and the Twins would have been saddled with him through next season.

While I can understand (while disagreeing with) the justification for adding Washburn and shifting a starter to the bullpen for the rest of THIS season, there are other, better ways to fix the bullpen problem going into 2009. Washburn would have been the wrong fix for this team and would have just taken up the space of a better starter in 2009.

That said, the Twins' front office was trying to find a solution to what has turned into a very serious problem, so I guess I can't fault them for that. Assuming the reports are true, however, this was a very significant issue and extensive discussion about it by members of the blogosphere is both expected and appropriate.

Marty Andrade: The Twins' front office has made a number of blunders this year, along with a spattering of brilliant moves that defy their modus operandi. The Twins signed veteran hitter Craig Monroe, along with veteran pitcher Livan Hernandez, for millions of dollars, and then they dropped those two players later in the season.

Randy Ruiz, a 10-year veteran of the minor leagues, but who had never made an appearance in the majors, replaced Monroe, while the 2006 phenom Francisco Liriano replaced the terrible Livan. The Ruiz move was completely unexpected, and the willingness of the front office to go with unproven players in the middle of a playoff race should be commended.

What the Washburn deal shows me is that despite some of the moves Bill Smith has made, he still doesn’t even attempt to use objective criteria (read: advanced sabremetrics) to rate players.

He also allowed Chad Bradford to be claimed by another team after suggesting Bradford wouldn’t be an upgrade over current personnel in the Twins' bullpen. These are big mistakes in my book. I’ll give Bill Smith the benefit of the doubt for the moment; we need a few years to see what kind of GM he’ll be.

2) Speaking of the Twins' blogosphere, has the online world been unfair towards the Twins' top brass, and is it getting too negative?

AK: I think they have. As the cliché goes, "give someone a blog and they know everything." Second-guessing is what some people live by. Most bloggers wouldn't have anything to blog about if not for mistakes made by the team.

As far as the top brass goes, I am personally pretty upset with them for not making any move at the deadline, but I give them credit for being better baseball minds than I. After all, how else would they get the job they have (besides marriage)?

JT: Unfair? Too negative? We're talking about the blogosphere, right? Isn't that pretty much most blogger's stock-in-trade? I honestly don't read many blogs because I don't usually have time to do more than write for my own.

I have no idea how negative people have been getting. I personally give Bill Smith a passing grade but not a spectacular one. The decisions made in free agency were dreadful, and I'm concerned about rumblings (such as the Washburn discussion above) that surface from time to time.

However, Smith pulled off the best deal possible with Santana (and more importantly, he had the guts to make what was a necessary move) while letting Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva go and signing Joe Nathan long-term.

His moves have the Twins tied for first as I write this. Too much negativity is unwarranted. Smith has made some mistakes, in my opinion, but overall, he appears to be a very competent GM. If people are continuously blasting him (as they often do with Gardy), it's unwarranted.

MA: One of the regular criticisms of the blogosphere is the ubiquitous negativity. However, anyone that has ever read a local sports columnist for any period of time will know—negativity is everywhere in sports media.

3) As the Twins continue to battle the White Sox for top place in the AL Central, what are the Twins' greatest strengths and weaknesses? And the White Sox?

AK: The Twins' weakness is obviously relief pitching. I think September will bring more ease for the relievers, but I wouldn't expect a major drop in production/statistics. The Twins' strength is their offense. They have some of the best bats in the league in Mauer, Morneau, and now possibly even Young and Kubel.

The White Sox also have great bats. They can hit a thousand home runs a night and still have some power left in the tank. That will lead people, myself included, to believe that a team that lives and dies by the long ball will certainly fade, but the White Sox haven't. Yet.

The glaring weakness of this team is starting pitching and their bullpen. To be honest, I don't know how Chicago is still in the AL Central race with a pitching staff like theirs. Once the batting fades, the whole team will practically disappear. At least, that is the way it goes in my dreams.

JT: I continue to think that the Twins' greatest strength is the young, starting pitching. While there are occasional lapses (as with all starters), overall you can expect to get six to seven reasonably solid innings out of them.

The greatest weakness right now is unquestionably the bullpen, and not much elaboration is needed.

As for the White Sox, if I were a fan of theirs, I'd be concerned about the rotation. I realize that sounds a bit strange when Danks (3.11), Floyd (3.75), and Buehrle (3.77) all have been really good this year, and when Vazquez (4.34) has been no slouch, but I think that Danks and Floyd are overperforming, and Buehrle is something of a time bomb.

Strengths? How about MVP candidate Carlos Quentin, who seems to do everything for that squad?

MA: For the Twins, the offense has been the big surprise. July and August have seen the Twins rank in sixth and fifth, respectively, in OPS in the AL. They’re ranked eighth overall for the year.

For a team that has historically had problems with offense, scoring runs is what has made this playoff run possible. The Twins rank in the bottom third of AL teams in ERA. Both the bullpen and the starting rotation have been below average.

The White Sox don’t have any real weaknesses, and their bullpen is their greatest strength. It ranks third in ERA in the AL.

4) Name the impact September call-up. Who will help the Twins the most?

AK: Bobby Korecky, but I hope he is brought up before September.

JT: I don't think there is a true "impact" guy that is going to step in and change the complexion of the season. Any competent reliever that can get some outs in the sixth and seventh, though, would be welcome. Bobby Korecky is probably that guy.

MA: Yadda, Yadda, Bobby Korecky. He’s a reliable middle reliever, and it’s quite annoying to see him continue to perform well in the minors while our bullpen struggles.

Twins Talk: Weekly Roundtable

Marty Andrade — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 19:19:00 -0400

It’s a small group in the Roundtable this week, which is fine because you can catch me and other Bleacher Report Twins Community writers and bloggers at my Twins Podcast, which is live every Sunday at 8pm central. Last week saw the Bleacher Report’s Dan Carey and Dan Wade join me along with Seth Stohs and former Twins Podcaster Jeff Straub.

Josh Taylor of Taylor’s Twins Talk joined me at the roundtable this week:

Carlos Gomez bruised his back making a spectacular catch last week, he wasn't badly hurt but the question remains, should outfielders sacrifice their bodies to make outs and risk injury?

Josh Taylor: The question you asked has the word "should" in it, and I guess if I were to directly answer the question as asked the answer I'd give is a straight-up no. The value of one out -- even one coming with, say, two outs and runners on base which is extremely valuable in the moment -- is nowhere near as high as the value of having that player in the lineup regularly.

However, I think that it's virtually impossible to ask a player not to go for the ball. It's similar to players who slide head-first, or slide at all into first base. It's a reaction thing, something they do without thinking at all. As a result, I don't think "should" plays a role.

Incidentally, I also think it might send the wrong message for a manager to call a young player into his office to say "don't try so hard." Potentially negative side effects could result, methinks.

Marty Andrade: The value of an out is not nearly close to the value an everyday player brings to his club. You can name the era and find a player known for making spectacular catches but who had his career shortened due to injuries. Fred Lynn is a personal favorite example of a guy who just beat himself up until he couldn’t play anymore.

Gomez wasn’t badly hurt, but players need to be better at assessing risk/reward scenarios. Or baseball higher ups can make the necessary moves to change baseball player’s stupid behavior. It’s completely possible, when was the last time you saw someone get taken out of game on a stretcher after slamming into the brick fence at Wrigley Field? No one in their right mind will dive headfirst into a brick fence. However, the padded fences see players slam against them all the time. Maybe the way to reduce injuries to outfielders is to make the consequences of stupid actions a little bigger.

Speaking of Carlos Gomez, he's now, offensively, the worst overall regular in the American League. Should the Twins consider sending him down to the minors?

Josh Taylor: Consider? Yes. The Twins should consider every option when it comes to what to do with their players that could make the team better. Without question, Denard Span has played better ball this season than Carlos Gomez. Gomez should probably be playing every day, though, so when Michael Cuddyer comes back he is logically a candidate to go down. My preference, though, would be to keep him in the bigs and find a way to get a regular rotation going where he plays 3 or 4 of every five games. Give Cuddyer and Young some time at DH if you have to. I think his speed (in the outfield and on the bases) warrants keeping him around, especially if he's hitting in the 9-hole and isn't asked to do too much. I guess I just have a soft spot for the guy. Also, I wonder how much sense it makes to send him down for August only to have him back as a September call-up. Maybe there'd be some value in that, but I'm not sure.

Marty Andrade: The Twins are going to have to make some difficult decisions when Michael Cuddyer is ready to come off the DL. The Twins need to drop someone from the roster unless they can delay Cuddyer’s return until September, which seems unlikely. My choice would be to send down Gomez for a few weeks before bringing him back up in September. This way, the Twins get to keep everyone they want.

Otherwise, the Twins will have to drop either Denard Span, who’s been doing very well in his call-up, to AAA or they will have to give up Craig Monroe. Sending Gomez to the minors allows the Twins to lose nothing in the long run. Sending Span down to AAA will be sending down one of their better hitters for a month. Dropping Monroe leaves the team hurting for a right handed DH, which could be filled by Cuddyer sure. I think demoting Gomez makes more sense than people think.

The Twins just finished up a poor stretch of games which included a long losing streak, what went wrong?

Josh Taylor: Nothing out of the ordinary. The losing streak involved the last game of a series against Texas where they won 2-of-3, and the first game of a series against Cleveland that they won 2-of-3. In the middle, they were swept by a tough Yankees club, in Yankee Stadium where they never play particularly well. These things happen, especially on the road -- a sweep isn't that remarkable. It just so happens that the five games were all together -- but if the Twins had lost the middle game of the Texas and Cleveland series, instead of the last and first respectively, it wouldn't have looked so bad.

Marty Andrade: I have to agree, there’s nothing special about losing streaks like this, but I think the extra news coverage about “the Twins last trip to Yankee Stadium” might have had a negative impact on the players.

How much longer will Livan Hernandez stay a Twin?*

Josh Taylor: If I had my way, he'd have never been signed in the first place (and yes, I understand the reasons for signing him -- I just disagree with them and no amount of discussion will convince me otherwise). However, GM Bill Smith and I apparently feel very differently about Livan's value to the organization, and I wouldn't bet on his departure anytime soon. To me, Hernandez is the perfect option to be replaced by Francisco Liriano in the rotation, especially since Kevin Slowey just tossed a complete game to almost certainly save his bacon. Again, though, I'm biased because I never wanted Hernandez at all. If I had to guess, Hernandez will be a Twin for the remainder of the year, like it or not. And just in case my point was somehow missed -- I decidedly do not.

Marty Andrade: It has been clear, everyone with an inside angle on the thinking of Twins GM Bill Smith says Smith likes Livan in the rotation. My prediction would be Livan will stays in the rotation the rest of the year. And this move alone will probably cost the Twins 3 wins down the stretch.

*There was a delay in getting this Roundtable posted up, and, hilariously, the Twins got rid of Livan Hernandez earlier today.

Previewing the Minnesota Twins' Playoff Run: Part III, Position Players

Marty Andrade — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 17:48:00 -0400

Joe Mauer, Catcher

He’s the best offensive catcher in the American League and one of the most valuable players in baseball. He’s an effective glove behind the plate and manages pitchers very well. Mauer is a patient hitter with a .418 OBP, which ranks somewhere near the top of the American League.

Mike Redmond, Catcher

Redmond has had limited playing time this year, as Mauer has shown exceptional aptitude at hitting left-handed pitching and has been pain free most of the year. Still, Redmond plays an important role for the Twins, as all backup catchers do.

His numbers are way down this year from earlier years, his OPS is hovering around .650, but he’s enjoying a very high LD percentage, which makes me think he might regress upwards a bit, if he gets playing time.

Brian Buscher, Third Baseman

After Mike Lamb proved he’s no longer worthy of regular work in the majors, and injuries weakened the Twins’ bench, Brian Buscher was finally brought up to the majors. Through age 25, Buscher was a .250 hitter who never saw his OPS creep much above the league average.

He was looking like a permanent minor-league roster filler.

However, something happened, because over the past two years, Buscher got his OPS near the .900 level while in the minors and is now hitting .313/.337/.410 in the majors this year. For the Twins, Buscher has been, and could continue to be, the answer at third base.

Alexi Casilla, Second Baseman

After hitting an unexciting .222/.256/.259 last year in 204 plate appearances, Alexi found some game and is hitting an exciting .315/.357/.440 while playing a competent second base (and occasionally SS). There’s nothing in his peripheral numbers to suggest his success is a fluke. However, he’s playing well above his career .293/.367/.366 line in the minors.

Brendan Harris, Shortstop

Harris is in the middle of his second full season of full-time work. His .691 OPS is a drop from his marks last year, and his zone rating rank is low compared to his American League peers. As a shortstop with below-average glove work and average offensive production (his production is near the median for AL shortstops), he doesn’t project well.

Approaching his 28th birthday, it’s looking like Harris won’t find any kind of permanent groove at the major-league level. Harris might bounce back, but he’s not someone I would bet on to be a permanent fixture of the Twins' organization.

Mike Lamb, Third Baseman

“Mike Lamb just hasn’t panned out” —Bert Blyleven, (18 July 2008 pregame comment)

I couldn’t put it better than that, thanks Bert. Mike Lamb is getting a little unlucky as his “Batting Average on Balls In Play” (BA/BIP) statistic suggests to me, but there’s not much bounce to hope for. His .220/.257/.292 line can only go up.

Justin Morneau, First Baseman

The 27-year old former AL MVP is having another great season, hitting .323/.391/.512 while making his second All-Star team. While I used to think Morneau got a little too much praise, the fact that he ranks among the top-five first basemen in the majors for Gross Productive Average (an adjusted derivation of OPS) shows he is among the elite hitters of baseball and deserves the recognition he’s getting.

Nick Punto, Utility Guy

After his horrendous season last year, Punto has recovered well in limited playing time this year. In 116 plate appearances, the Twins' utility guy is hitting .324/.383/.471. He's seeing less pitches per plate appearance by swinging at early pitches and is driving the ball hard somewhere in play. His LD percentage has improved from 14 percent to 22 percent from last year. It's a small sample size, and Punto will likely regress to his career marks: .250/.318/.331.

Carlos Gomez, Center fielder

Gomez was the highlight addition from the offseason for the Twins. Acquired in the Santana trade, Gomez became the starting center fielder for the Twins. Replacing Torii Hunter, Gomez had big shoes to fill, and for a while, it was looking like he might accomplish it.

However, his .641 OPS and .287 OBP look pathetic in comparison to the person he was competing with in Spring Training. Denard Span is enjoying a great offensive season and is presently with the club, replacing the injured Michael Cuddyer.

Gomez ranks dead last among all qualified leadoff hitters in OBP and ranks 20th out of 22 qualified center fielders in OPS. We have to balance his offensive ineptness with the fact he leads all center fielders in defense. He has the No. 1 zone rating and the No. 1 range factor.

If and when Cuddyer comes off the DL, my move would be to send Gomez down to the minors to get some hitting done before coming back to the club in September, while I would move Span over to center.

However, the Twins can't even move Gomez from the leadoff spot in the batting order, let alone make such a drastic move as I suggest.

Denard Span, Outfielder

Span was brought up to fill-in for Michael Cuddyer after Cuddyer found himself on the DL. Since his call up, Span has hit .315/.413/.418. The Twins will be facing quite a dilemma when Cuddyer is ready to come off the DL. My suggestion? Drop Craig Monroe.

Delmon Young, Outfielder

Young was the highlight of the Bartlett/Garza trade this offseason. Now playing mostly in left field, he has a respectable .746 OPS, but the improvement Young is showing this year is the thing to watch.

In April, Young had a .619 OPS. In May, it jumped to .697, and in July, it was .817. So far in July it's a very nice .960.

Young has show consistent improvement in all aspects of his offensive game. This is a great development for the Twins and it has solidified Young as the left fielder for the future for the Twins.

Jason Kubel, Designated Hitter

Everyone is waiting for Kubel to become the hitter he was supposed to be. It's looking like the long wait is over. His .799 OPS this season is a career high and the last two months has seen a swing in OPS.

Last year, Jason Kubel was my pick to click, and I see no reason to go back on it. Kubel might be the best hitter on the Twins team in the second half.

Craig Monroe, Designated Hitter

Monroe is the sort of hitter I really love. He doesn't hit the ball often, but when he does, it's normally bouncing off a wall or into some guy's seat. A right-handed power hitter with a low OPS, low BA, and low OBP, he has a respectable SLG of .414.

He's not worth what the Twins gave him, but he's been acceptable in his role. However, I think Monroe's time in the majors is limited, and I hope the Twins decide to stick with some of the younger options they have down the stretch.

Minnesota Twins: Previewing the Playoff Run, Part I, Team Splits

Marty Andrade — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 01:21:00 -0400

Let's take a quick look at some of the important splits of the Twins team as they come down the stretch this baseball season.

—At the All-Star break, the Twins are 53 and 42, a game-and-a-half behind the AL Central leading White Sox. They've scored 463 runs and allowed 448. Their Pythagorean Win/Loss record is 49-46. But when their record is adjusted by Baseball Prospectus, based on strength of schedule and the approximate statistical strength of the Twins', the team is 46-49.

The disparity between how the team is actually doing compared to how it theoretically should be doing, based on objective measurements of their stats, can be found in the fact that the Twins have hit .307 with an .830 OPS with runners in scoring position.

—As a team, the Twins have hit .273 with a .743 OPS. The Twins have struggled against portsiders, hitting just .265 with a paltry .695 OPS. Matt Macri, who in his short stint with the Twins earlier this year hit .409 with a 1.000 OPS against lefties, is in AAA.

—Platooning your team and creating a lineup using OPS are “free” ways to score more runs. I made a small adjustment to the descending OPS batting order. I put a high OBP guy in the No. 1 and No. 4 spots, and put a high-SLG guy into the No. 3 spot.

Here are my idealized lineups for the Twins.

Against right-handed pitching:

Joe Mauer, C

Justin Morneau, 1B

Craig Monroe, DH

Nick Punto, (provisionally*) SS

Brian Buscher, 3B

Jason Kubel, LF

Alexi Casilla, 2B

Delmon Young, RF

Denard Span, CF

*I think Nick Punto's good numbers this year are a product of chance and small sample size. In fact, I wouldn't use Nick Punto regularly as a starter, and instead I would have Brendan Harris play SS hitting in the No. 8 spot

Against lefties:

Denard Span, DH*

Matt Macri, 3B*

Joe Mauer, C

Adam Everett, SS*

Justin Morneau, 1B

Nick Punto, (ditto from above) SS

Alexi Casilla, 2B

Delmon Young, LF

Michael Cuddyer, RF

Carlos Gomez, CF

Brendan Harris, 3B*

*There are a lot of problems here. One, Matt Macri is in AAA. Instead of him hitting second, Brendan Harris would be used at SS in my lineup, and he'd be batting ninth. Adam Everett is also hurt, so Nick Punto is in at 3B or SS. Michael Cuddyer is also hurt, so Denard Span moves from the DH spot to RF.

—My lineup method isn't perfect, but just looking at right/left platoon splits helps clarify making roster decisions. From what I see, dropping Lamb is a must, while Matt Macri needs to be recalled to the majors.

Denard Span should not be sent down once Cuddyer comes off the DL. The Twins might want to look at finding a right-handed power hitter to DH or play LF.

—The Twins rank 12th in the A.L. in OPS against left-handed pitching. They rank fourth against right-handed pitching.

—In June, the Twins were 10th in the A.L. in team OPS. In July, they were second.

The Twins' pitching staff has allowed the second highest opposing OPS and total bases in the A.L. They have the fifth highest WHIP in the A.L. and rank 11th in strikeouts. They have also allowed the fourth highest number of runs.

Conversely, the Twins also rank fifth in A.L. in quality starts and have allowed fewer walks than any other team in the A.L.

The result has the Twins ranking 10th in ERA and fifth in wins.

—The team leader in ERA is Joe Nathan, who is the best pitcher in the bullpen. The leader among the Twins' starters is Scott Baker.

—The highest ERA amongst the Twins' starters is Livan Hernandez. The highest ERA amongst the relievers is Boof Bonser, who was demoted to the bullpen after an unsuccessful start in the rotation.

—Livan Hernandez leads the team in innings pitched (IP). Brian Bass leads all relievers in IP. Bass has the second worst ERA among all relievers.

—Matt Tolbert, Carlos Gomez, Mike Lamb, Craig Monroe, Brian Bass, and Livan Hernandez all appear to be the weak links in the Twins' roster. Lamb, Hernandez, and Bass would be the guys I would cut to make room for better players.

Based on the above numbers, I have come to the conclusion that the Twins are a flawed team, and they won't be able to maintain their current winning percentage without making some changes to their personnel.

Minnesota Twins Wish Every Month was May

Marty Andrade — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 02:53:00 -0400

In April, the Twins were terrible. They ranked near the bottom in the majors in OPS, and they had a terrible time producing enough runs to win, even with the quality starts their pitching staff kept putting together. The Twins were remarkably undisciplined at the plate, taking fewer walks than most teams and striking out too often.

It was embarrassing to be a Twins fan and watch player after player swing away at bad pitches. It came to the point where other teams realized the Twins were aggressively swinging early during their at-bats, and opposing pitchers learned to throw junk outside the strike zone early. It looked like another season of Twins’ offensive mediocrity.

But in May, the Twins were sixth in SLG, fifth in OPS, third in OBP, and third in runs scored in the AL. They upped the number of walks the team had by nearly 50 percent. It was an offensive explosion outside of anything Twins fans could have ever hoped. The Twins looked disciplined and patient at the plate, and they displayed the sort of power you’ll find in playoff-bound teams.

Since May 1, the Twins have five hitters in the top 50 in the AL for pitches per plate appearance (Cuddyer, Harris, Morneau, Mauer, and Young). Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are ranked sixth and seventh respectively in RC/27. Delmon Young has a .65 BB/K ratio, good for 19th in the AL. The only Twin better during the same period was Joe Mauer. Delmon Young has made some great strides at the plate, and the Twins' coaching staff deserves some credit for the change.

In fact, I would credit the team’s coaching staff for the dramatic shift the Twins have shown recently. With numerous injuries and some gaping lineup holes, Gardenhire and his team have kept the Twins competitive and, to be cliché, done more with less. They've made adjustments and those adjustments are working.

So far, the Twins pitching staff has been average. A big yawn. This is mainly due to 28 starts given to a trio of pitchers who have been struggling all year: Livan Hernandez, Boof Bonser, and Francisco Liriano (who attempted to return from Tommy John surgery a little too early).

Boof is a tough call, as his sabermetric numbers suggest he’s doing better than his actual performance, but his actual performance has been really bad for a long time, going back over thirty starts.

Livan Hernandez is slowly submitting to his long-term track record, and is on pace to be annoyingly bad by the All-Star break.

Francisco Liriano, the 2006 rookie phenom, struggled early, but his game has been getting stronger with each start in AAA. Liriano could make a successful comeback very soon, and his addition, along with the continued success of other young pitchers on the Twins team, could propel the Twins into late-season contention.

It can’t be said for certain that the Twins have turned things around. There’s still a lot of statistical noise. There are a lot of injuries and other lineup questions to be answered. As the team is built now, they don’t have staying power. But, there’s hope. And for fans of a team that plays in flyover land and never gets noticed by ESPN, hope is enough for now.

Chris Coste, the 33-Year-Old Rookie, Appears with Philadelphia Phillies

Marty Andrade — Sun, 18 May 2008 14:47:00 -0400

It takes a certain amount of unhealthy obsession to spend 11 years in the minor leagues in the hopes of making it to the show. Chris Coste took a long and hard road to become a major league baseball player.

In the process, he ran into the ugly reality of some of baseball’s worst prejudices, and he defeated them. His book, The 33 Year Old Rookie, is an excellent baseball autobiography now available at ChrisCoste.com.

Coste begins the book at the 2006 Philadelphia Phillies spring training camp. Through luck and some determination, he was able to get some meaningful playing time.

His batting average was over .450, he was able to sell himself to Charlie Manuel and to the pitching staff. It looked like Coste was finally going to make it.

A last minute trade doomed him, and he was sent back to the minor leagues. Coste’s dream was on hold again.

The book then goes back to Coste’s Fargo upbringing, his life as the best amateur ballplayer in town and his college years. Coste’s life goal is to play major league baseball, and it’s a dream he keeps alive through a lot of hard work.

Unable to get a job in a MLB organization, he starts working his way through independent ball. Despite good numbers, Coste finds it more and more difficult to crack the big league hierarchy.

This gets us back to those prejudices Coste had to fight. Baseball has had a problem for many years over how to scout talent.

For a long time and continuing to this day, baseball scouts have used the “five tools method” to find prospective ballplayers.

The method is used in short tryouts where players are given a workout of wind sprints, throwing and batting practice. Players, who are athletic and fast, do well in these tryouts and attract the interest of major league scouts.

The “five tools” deal overvalues athleticism and undervalues baseball skill. Speed becomes an addiction to baseball scouts.

Whether it’s speed on the base paths or simply fastball velocity, scouts fall in love with fast. For guys like Coste, this addiction is a costly check on making any progress up the baseball ladder.

Throughout the book, Coste laughs at himself and his lack of speed, but it was probably one of the biggest reasons he was left to languish so long in independent baseball.

His lack of speed also hurt him earlier in his career when he failed to get noticed in the amateur draft.

After posting some incredible numbers as a catcher for the RedHawks in the Northern League, he was finally able to get in with a major league organization. Unfortunately, his problems were just beginning.

It was impossible for him to get on anyone’s radar. He had been labeled as a “minor leaguer” and wasn’t given the opportunity to prove himself worthy of a big league uniform.

Again, baseball has its prejudices, and Coste was forced to fight not only other players but the inability on baseball to objectively rate playing ability.

The greatest lesson of sabermetrics has been that minor league stats are significant measures of talent and predict major league performance. Minor league stats matter.

Coste’s .299/.354/.447 minor league line in 3688 at bats matches very well his .310/.358/.481 line he has in 397 major league at bats.

At the age of 35, Coste is enjoying regular playing time with the Philadelphia Phillies. There’s nothing left for Coste to prove other than how long he can stay in the majors.

His book is well written, entertaining, and eye opening. There is no easy path to the show, but Coste’s route has to be deserving of Congressional recognition.

Twins April Notes III

Marty Andrade — Mon, 05 May 2008 19:47:26 -0400

Here’s a quick statistical look at the position players on the Twins’ active roster:

Catchers

Joe Mauer

A .333 BA and .831 OPS so far this season are early indicators that Mauer is on the rebound from a disappointing season last year. I say 2007 was disappointing, but, the truth was, Mauer would have ranked fourth in OPS among qualified catchers last year had he played enough games.

This year Mauer ranks fourth in the majors in OPS among catchers. So it’s only the batting average that has changed, and nobody should care much for batting average.

Mike Redmond

Red turns 37 today. He has built his entire career on being able to take an unbelievable beating behind the plate and still being an offensive pest to opposing teams. Looking at his age and .445 OPS so far this year it looks like there can’t be much left in Redmond’s tank. However, based on his line drive percentage (LD%) and ground ball percentage (GB%) Redmond should repeat or even improve his .294/.346/.353 line from last year.

The big issue with Redmond is the fact the Twins don’t do a good job of platooning. Red does very well against lefties but never seems to get many starts against them.

Infielders

*Brian Buscher (now in AAA)

Buscher was a looking to be a career minor leaguer before 2007. In 2007 is career took a big jump as his OPS jumped almost 200 points from his career average and he went from AA to a September call-up to the majors. Now, between the majors and the minors his OPS is once again over .800 and it’s looking like 2007 wasn’t a fluke.

Buscher doesn’t project to be anything better than a below average third baseman but at least it’s only slightly below average. Buscher taking over third regularly would be an improvement for the Twins.

Adam Everett

Twins fans have been very disappointed in shortstop Adam Everett this year. He didn’t look great in the field and his bat has been miserable. On the offensive side it looks like Everett has been a little unlucky and he should progress near to the not-really-respectable .231/.281/.318 he hit last year.

Defensively, things are a little more complicated.

It looks like a majority of his errors are throwing errors and those could have easily been caused by the arm problems he was having. His zone rating is about the same as it was last year but he’s not making as many plays “out-of-zone” as he normally does. This is probably a product of aging and can’t be avoided. He’s not the flop Twins fans think and things will get better, but I’d still release him if given the option.

Brendan Harris

The Twins second baseman has become a productive member of the team and his .705 OPS, while not awe inspiring, isn’t embarrassing for a second basemen. Harris might turn out to be one of the better acquisitions for Twins rookie GM Bill Smith.

Mike Lamb

Ugh. Lamb was one of the free-agent signings the Twins made in the offseason and he was supposed to fill an organizational hole at third base. Well, Lamb and GM Bill Smith both get a fat Fail here. Lamb’s .210/.234/.284 is deplorable and they are products of the fact Lamb is hitting less line drives and fewer groundballs then he ever has. Soft fly balls are the easiest way to make an out short of striking out and Lamb just isn’t getting the job done.

Justin Morneau

Morneau’s .853 OPS is actually an improvement over last year but it’s still short of his .934 OPS in 2006 when he won the MVP. Morneau is have a better year than I predicted he would and there’s a lot of positives in his numbers. He’s increased his LD% and GB% while reducing the number of fly-balls he hits though he’s made those fly-balls much more productive by increasing the number of homeruns he hits per fly-ball (HR/F). Things are looking good for the Twins first baseman.

Nick Punto

After having one of the worst offensive years ever at third base last year, Punto has found a better spot to be woeful, the bench. As a utility infielder Punto is just plain bad rather than flagitious. He’s got a decent glove but his .585 OPS this year is sadly an improvement over last year. Punto is no longer a major league quality player.

Matt Tolbert

Tolbert had a lot of success early on and has cooled lately. It looks as if his OPS has stabilized right around .700. A minor league veteran, Tolbert is the prototypical “replacement player” sabermetricians talk about. It’s guys like Tolbert who get hurt by guys like Punto. Tolbert surprised people by making the Twins’ active roster but they shouldn’t, he deserved it. So far he has played 2B, SS and 3B for the Twins and he should be a serviceable utility player at the major league level.

Outfielders

Michael Cuddyer

The Twins right fielder has shown a slight dip in batting performance this year. His OPS has dropped by 70 points from last year. Cuddyer has had an increase in the number of infield-fly-balls he’s hit while he’s also seeing fewer pitches per plate appearance. Something is off kilter but it’s hard to pin down exactly what it is. I’m not worried, yet.

Carlos Gomez

Gomez was the centerpiece in the Santana trade. He’s been the starting centerfielder and leadoff man for the Twins. Gomez is a remarkable athlete and his numbers are showing incremental improvement over last year. Should he be starting and leading off? Probably not. People have been hypnotized by his athleticism but so far his actual production has been replacement level. I think he needs more time in the minors but he’s definitely got a bright future ahead.

Jason Kubel

The Twins DH has been a hard luck case over the years. Despite incredible minor league numbers he’s never been able to come close to meeting his potential at the majors. A knee injury which almost ended his career has been dogging him a long time. It was looking like Twins fans might finally see the real Jason Kubel but so far his production has been near his personal worst. More worryingly, his LD% is way down from his career norm. Luckily, Kubel is a predictable slow starter and his numbers should improve as the year progresses.

Craig Monroe

As much as it hurts me to say this, Monroe should continue to platoon at DH with Jason Kubel. He simply hasn’t given the Twins any reason to fire him just yet. He has a .797 OPS and until his numbers go down he should probably continue to play regularly. I’m not going to wish him ill, though I wouldn’t mind seeing him go. His LD%, which is actually over 30% right now, is unsustainable and we’ll see some regression soon enough.

*Denard Span (Now in AAA)

The AAA CF came up when Cuddyer was injured and was immediately sent back down upon Cuddyer’s return. Span had a .582 OPS but his career minor league OPS of .698 shows the possibility of improvement if given a chance.

Delmon Young

The Twins leftfielder, the highlight of the Garza/Bartlett trade, has, like all the other Twins hitters, been struggling. A .613 OPS from a leftfielder is bad. But, his career average OPS in April is only .646 (compared to a career .722 OPS) so he might just be a slow starter. Time will tell.