Bleacher Report - Articles by Colin Clark

Have You Seen LSU's 2009 Schedule?

Colin Clark — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 03:07:26 -0400

I am breaking up my preseason top 25 with this surprising story

Tiger fans, have you seen this schedule? October is going to be a rough month next year

2009 Football Schedule

DATE	OPPONENT
Sept. 5	at Washington
Sept. 12	*VANDERBILT
Sept. 19	HOUSTON
Sept. 26	*at Miss. State
Oct. 3	*at Georgia
Oct. 10	*FLORIDA
Oct. 24	*AUBURN
Oct. 31	at Tulane
Nov. 7	SOUTHERN MISS
Nov. 14	*at Alabama
Nov. 21	*at Ole Miss
Nov. 28	*ARKANSAS
* SEC games

Courtesy of The Advocate

At Georgia and then Florida back-to-back. We get a week off and then Auburn comes to town. Alabama will be much improved next year and we have to travel to Tuscaloosa. We also go from eight home games to six home games. We play at Washington out of conference to start the season a handful of timezones away. The Huskies will get rid of Willingham and become a decent team.

At least we get to play Vandy.

I still think LSU will do well, they just have a much tougher year next year than they do this year.

Any thoughts?

College Football: My Preseason Top 25, Part 3

Colin Clark — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 05:16:10 -0400

This is Part 3 of my five-part series unveiling my preseason Top 25 teams.

In other news, I am going to my first Nationals game this weekend. I hear the new stadium is pretty sweet.

Here are the links for Parts 1, 2 and 4:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/35120-college-football-my-preseason-top-25-part-1

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/35642-college-football-my-preseason-top-25-part-2

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/38995-college-football-my-preseason-top-25-part-4

Here we go:

11. Auburn (Athlon No. 8, Phil Steele No. 12, SI No. 9, ESPN No. 10)

Overall: Florida and Auburn’s bowl games last year, more than most teams, seem like harbingers of what is to come this season. Auburn hired Tony Franklin last December, and he installed a spread offense for the Peach Bowl (AKA Chick-fil-A Bowl).

This is the same offense that is the backbone of his consulting business (which earns $150,000-plus a year). This version of the spread turned Troy’s offense around overnight (109th in the country to 16th in the country in one season) when he was the offensive coordinator there.

While Auburn did not score lots of points against Clemson in the Peach Bowl (they beat Clemson 23-20), it did prove effective enough to win. Tony Franklin is a proven winner and will make this offense tough to beat.

The spread can take some getting used to, to be sure, and there will be mental mistakes along the way. While the offense returns a hefty number of starters (eight), I do not think they have the right personnel yet for a championship worthy spread offense.

For example, this year's projected starting offensive line weighs an average of 292 pounds, which is too heavy for the demands of a lighter, quicker spread offense. While sophomore QB Kodi Burns can run fairly quickly, he threw two interceptions last year (in 26 total attempts). Both INTs were against Mississippi State in an embarrassing loss.

While Burns may have the talent for the Franklin system, does he have the poise and composure? Can he throw the ball downfield effectively? Could junior college transfer Chris Todd be a better fit then Burns? These are questions that Auburn has left unanswered thus far.

Brad Lester, Ben Tate, Mario Fannin, and Tristan Davis will lead a relatively unspectacular but effective running game.

Last year, Auburn was ranked 97th in total offense. If Auburn can mesh this offense together well, watch out. However, I suspect that they are a year off before they make a serious run at the SEC Championship.

Paul Rhoads, a decent defensive coordinator who spent the last eight seasons at Pitt, will replace the spectacular Will Muschamp (now at Texas) as the defensive coordinator. The Tigers have seven starters returning from a unit that was ranked sixth in the nation in total defense last year.

Look for a deep defensive line, despite the fact that two starters are now gone, and watch for impact linebacker Tray Blackmon. Auburn’s newfangled offense may or may not work, but anyone who knows their football would not bet against this defense.

Opponents: Auburn lost to Mississippi State on the plains last year. I, for one, do not expect that to happen again when conference play begins for the Tigers on September 13.

Their first true test is on September 20 when LSU comes to town. Like I wrote before, this is a great rivalry that can be a barn burner at times (it literally was a barn burner in 1996 when “The Barn,” the old Auburn Sports Arena, burned to the ground during the game).

Last year’s contest was epic and ended with a questionable (or courageous, depending on which brand of Tigers you root for) play call that resulted in an LSU touchdown with one second left on the clock.

I expect this year’s match at Jordan-Hare Stadium to be just as close, although I expect LSU to win. I do not think Auburn will be able to score very many touchdowns against LSU’s tough defense, and Les Miles will have a trick call or two to put Trindon Holliday in the end zone.

I am just hoping I can take Friday classes off in Baton Rouge and score a ticket in Auburn.

Auburn should come off a close loss and beat Tennessee the next week in another tough pick. The idea of Auburn losing two in a row at home does not seem like the Tigers or Tommy Tuberville. As I wrote in my West Virginia writeup, I think the Tigers will also beat WVU in Morgantown on October 23.

I feel that as the season progresses, the Tigers will become more accustomed to the new coordinators and offense and will be able to have a few strong late season victories.

Along with the LSU and Tennessee games, I believe their game at Georgia on November 15 will be close. Auburn has played the spoiler in a number of Georgia’s seasons before. I do not see it happening this time, but I wouldn't be surprised if they won either.

I would be extremely surprised, though, if Tuberville does not pull out a seventh win over Alabama to close the season (fear the hand, thumb, and index finger?).

Prediction: 10-2

12. Wisconsin (Athlon No. 12, Phil Steele No. 21, SI No. 10, ESPN No. 16)

Overall: I am sure many people in the Badger State and across America’s Dairyland are wondering why the Badgers are not widely in consideration for a championship run. They have 10 starters on offense and nine starters on defense returning from a decent 9-4 season that included a win over Michigan.

Their offense looks like LSU’s—not a quarterback on the roster with a start for Wisconsin (one of them, Allan Evridge, had six starts with Kansas State in 2005). Who will lead this offense that boasts a tough and experienced offensive line and three solid running backs? Evridge might, but as far as I know, that could quickly change.

The Badgers will have to rely on the solid running game of P.J. Hill, Zach Brown and Lance Smith. While Travis Beckum is the best tight end in the nation, Wisconsin does not have a single marquee wide receiver on the roster. However, some observers look to this unit to break out in 2008.

On defense, Wisconsin has maybe the second best (Ohio State being No. 1) linebacker corps in the Big 10 and three solid DBs returning. Oh, and their defensive line has three proven seniors. What gives?

Well, how about the 15-plus injuries they have had already this year. I do not think these guys are healthy enough to compete for a BCS Bowl. I may be wrong.

Opponents: The Badgers have a relatively easy slate with only a few games that should keep them up at nights. Being 25-1 at Camp Randall since 2004 also helps.

Fresno State could be deceptively good this year, and the Badgers have to go all the way to California to play them. While I think Wisconsin will win, they cannot overlook the Bulldogs. I also think Wisconsin will undress Michigan and be the first to show them for the frauds they will be this year (unless Notre Dame does it first).

Ohio State should come to Camp Randall and trounce the Badgers. However, if they play with a lot of heart (Bret Bielema is a decent motivator), they could pull out an upset. Just do not bet the aforementioned dairy farm on it.

I also think they will beat Penn State but lose to either Illinois or at Michigan State as the injuries start to rack up. Stay healthy, Badgers, and you could surprise a lot of people, including me, with a Big 10 crown.

Prediction: 10-2, with a berth to a fifth January bowl in five years (Outback or Capital One)

13. BYU (Athlon No. 14, Phil Steele No. 17, SI No. 17, ESPN No. 13)

Overall: Who will be the BCS buster this year? While Fresno State and Utah look like good alternatives, my money is on BYU. BYU won a national championship (not a typo) in 1984, and the school has a history of performing beyond its means.

The Cougars have nine returning on offense, most notably QB Max Hall, who put up some impressive numbers last year (3,848 yards, 26 TDs, 12 INTs). WR Austin Collie and TE Dennis Pitta should be catching most of Max’s passes. Harvey Unga is now on the national scene after having a 1,227-yard rushing season last year, averaging five yards a carry. BYU also returns four starters on their strong offensive line.

Here is something you should know about BYU. The vast majority of their players are Mormon, and many go on Church missions while they are at school and do not lose eligibility. Most missions are two years long. Thus, BYU consistently has an older, mature team that seems more disciplined then most.

The Cougars have now had two 11-win seasons (including bowls) in a row. They have three wins and three losses against BCS teams in those two years as well (Arizona, UCLA, Boston College, and Oregon). This is a high-powered offense and a team that knows how to win.

Defensively, BYU returns three starters. While that seems like not a lot to work with, I still expect the Cougars to do a decent job. Two starters are the defensive ends and look to fight their way into the backfield often this year. Talented defensive ends should not only be able to stop the outside run but also create pocket pressure and force bad passes. This team will do exactly that.

The defense as a whole is not expected to start a single freshman or sophomore. While many of these players did not start last year, they have stuck with a program that develops talent well, especially in the secondary.

This is the team to beat in the non-BCS world this year. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall very rarely gets blown out and will maintain his poise to take this team pretty far this year—I would say all the way to a BCS bowl.

Opponents: During the regular season BYU will play two BCS opponents, both in September and both in the Pac-10. First, they visit Washington on September 6. The Huskies have been constantly imploding since Rick Neuheisel took the team to a victory at the Rose Bowl in 2001.

While Tyrone Willingham has done yeoman’s service cleaning this program up, his winning percentage has left many Huskies fans calling for his head. Here is the now infamous story about the Huskies’ downfall: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2004147443_rboverview27m0.html.

The Huskies have not been the same since then, and BYU has too much talent to lose to Washington. Look for a convincing win.

The next week, UCLA (and Rick Neuheisel) visits BYU on September 13. UCLA has gone through coaching changes and only return seven starters. While Norm Chow may be a great offensive coordinator, his QBs have been injured more often than not since he has been there. Also, BYU beat UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl last year (after UCLA beat BYU in the regular season). BYU should beat them in Provo this year.

They play Texas Christian in Fort Worth this year on October 16. While this game will be closer than many think, I still believe BYU will win this one too.

The Holy War looks to be the best regular season non-BCS game this year. On November 22, the Cougars will travel to Salt Lake City and take on the Utes of Utah. Utah matches up well against BYU in what looks to be a close game. 10 of the last 11 in this series have been decided by a touchdown or less. I think the BYU offense will narrowly outscore the Utes.

Bronco Mendenhall’s “Quest for Perfection” mantra that his team has adopted does not refer to football, but I think they will find it on the field this year. I think this team will be unbeaten in the regular season, but memories of Hawaii are too fresh to put BYU in the top 10. However, I do not think voters will keep them out of a BCS bowl.

Prediction: 12-0, BCS At-Large Berth

14. Tennessee (Athlon No. 17, Phil Steele No. 23, SI No. 12, ESPN No. 14)

Overall: Is Jonathan Crompton (498 yards passing, five TDs and four INTs) the next Erik Ainge? The consensus answer is no. Crompton sat on the sidelines for three years for a chance to be in the spotlight. This is his year in the sun.

I do think it will be hard for Crompton, a first-year starter, to live up to a QB who was able to cut his teeth with Rick Clausen for a year or two before starting. What will give Crompton a chance to exceed expectation is the return of the entire offensive line that gave up four sacks all year on 534 attempts. Wow.

With enough time to sit in the pocket, I expect Crompton to be able to pick out Gerald Jones and Lucas Taylor. Arian Foster may also catch a pass or two, but he will mostly be running the ball at tailback this year. Tennessee will also use a fullback in their offensive set.

This offensive line is the key to creating a formidable offense. The Vols could surprise a lot of people. They return eight starters total on an offensive unit that was ranked 54th in total offense last year.

Defensively, the Volunteers also look to be in good shape. They return six starters, including Demonte’ Bolden and Dan Williams, who are impressive at the DT position. They also return almost the entire secondary, which was ranked 73rd in pass defense last year. Look for improvement in this unit.

The linebackers as a whole are undersized, but they still should be able to make a solid impact. The defense was actually ranked 70th in total defense and 61st in scoring defense.

Is this the defense that stops the likes of Knowshon Moreno, Tim Tebow, and Percy Harvin? I doubt it. I think John Chavis and Phil Fulmer are hoping their defense will keep them in the game while they try to outgun the SEC. This is probably not Tennessee’s year.

Opponents: I have good news and bad news for UT. While LSU is not on the schedule this year, and they get Florida at Neyland Stadium, they travel to Georgia and Auburn. They are playing Florida and Georgia when they are both having good years. It will be crowded atop the SEC East.

Fortunately for my friends in Knoxville, they are masters of their own destiny. If they can beat Georgia and Florida…well…Fulmer would be a pretty happy guy, and the Vols would probably go to a BCS game. While I hope they prove me wrong, my good sense tells me that the Volunteers will lose to Florida, Auburn, and Georgia.

However, I believe they will travel to the Rose Bowl and beat UCLA to kick off the season on September 1. I also think they will have revenge on Alabama for the thrashing they received in Tuscaloosa last year.

After their October 11 game with Georgia, the Vols look to run the table and win their last six games. Unfortunately, they will probably be out of the race for an SEC title by then.

Prediction: 9-3

15. Kansas (Athlon No. 13, Phil Steele No. 30, SI No. 15, ESPN No. 17)

Overall: Going from 6-6 to 12-1 in one year is fantastic. Kansas was a great Cinderella story last year, culminating with a big win over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Mark Mangino proved that he can rebuild a team or two.

I happen to think he will be able to maintain and keep Kansas in the national picture. On the other hand, Mr. Mangino does not pull a creampuff schedule again. Additionally, he only returns six starters on offense.

Todd Reesing is one of the best QBs in the country (3,486 yards, 33 touchdowns, seven interceptions) and has a plethora of fantastic no-name running backs, more than enough to replace Brandon McAnderson.

I am worried, as are most of the good people in Lawrence, Kansas, about whether both starting tackles can be replaced effectively, especially left tackle Anthony Collins. The receiving unit is younger, but they are quality athletes.

Many knock the Big 12 as a whole for its lack of defense. I think Kansas may be somewhat of an exception. Even though they did play a soft schedule, they came up fourth in the nation last year in scoring defense and 12th overall. They return nine defensive starters this year.

While their defense against the pass looked a little suspect last year, I think they may improve to be a Big 12 North contender. Their defense, however, was not tested last year the way it will be this year. Missouri was the only powerful offense they faced (any ACC fan will tell you Virginia Tech lives and dies by their defense).

Opponents: An early matchup at South Florida on September 12 will show what Kansas is all about this year. South Florida is well-known for being all over the place. Are you going to see the USF that beat Auburn and WVU? Or the one that lost to Rutgers, UConn, and Cincinnati all in a row? I think a more durable and consistent Kansas will overtake USF.

Kansas should go unbeaten all the way to Norman on October 18 and then get smacked. Oklahoma looks better on both offense and defense…and it is in Norman. There is no way Kansas walks out of there alive.

After they get beaten up by Oklahoma, they have Texas Tech next week, who I think can outscore Kansas. While late season wins over Kansas State, Nebraska, and Texas will distinguish the season, there is little chance of a BCS repeat. The Border War is on November 29. Look for a repeat.

Prediction: 9-3

I am going to be moving to the great state of Louisiana over the next few weeks. I should have Part 4 done by Tuesday at the latest and will do my best to have Part 5 done by next Friday.

College Football: My Preseason Top 25, Part 2

Colin Clark — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 12:19:55 -0400

Welcome to Part 2 of my five-part series unveiling my preseason top 25 - check out Part 1 here and check out Part 3 here:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/36513-college-football-my-preseason-top-25-part-3

Here is Part 4:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/38995-college-football-my-preseason-top-25-part-4

Today I will write about my picks from No. 6 through No. 10. Here we go:

6. LSU (Athlon No. 9, Phil Steele No. 13, SI No. 5, ESPN No. 12)

Overview: Just so you know, I am going to LSU and I am a fan. However, I do not think I am overrating my Tigers. Les Miles and his pair of large, crystal footballs below his belt returns as one of the best (or luckiest) coaches in the game.

Also, LSU returns one of the best defensive lines in the country this year, including the best pair of defensive ends in the game, Kirston Pittman and Tyson Jackson. Filling in for Glenn Dorsey is the National Title Game MVP, Ricky Jean-Francois.

While there were heavy losses in the secondary from last year, LSU defensive backs have been fantastic over the years. Whether the young LSU secondary can step up over this season will determine the defensive fate of the Tigers. LSU will be able to shut down most teams’ running games with their defensive line and standout middle linebacker Darry Beckwith.

On the offensive side of the ball, Ciron Black anchors an impressive offensive line that will be able to relieve the LSU quarterback from constant pocket pressure. Both offensive and defensive lines were ranked No. 2 in the country by Athlon.

The quarterback situation is shaky. The problematic and oft-suspended Ryan Perrilloux was kicked off the team this spring, which will benefit the Tigers in the long run.

However, who will be under center come August 30? Freshman Jarrett Lee or Harvard transfer junior Andrew Hatch will have three cupcake games to begin the season to prove himself able to lead the Tigers.

Fortunately there are many weapons at their disposal, namely running back Keiland Williams and receivers Demetrius Byrd and Brandon LaFell. Trindon Holliday, track star extraordinaire, fell just short of representing our country in the Olympics. He is Les Miles' secret weapon on offense and a great kick returner.

The number of returning starters on a unit can be deceptive. The defensive unit only “returns” four and the offensive unit “returns” five. However, injuries, suspensions, and a number of other circumstances led to a bench that got a huge amount of playing time on both sides of the ball. Ricky Jean-Francois and Keiland Williams are good examples.

Opponents: Whether LSU can solve their problems at quarterback and in the defensive secondary will decide whether or not they can defeat Auburn on September 20.

I believe the winner of this game will earn a trip to Atlanta in December. The Auburn/LSU matchup has been thrilling the past few years and will have immense SEC implications, as it is beginning to have every year.

The other two big games on the slate are a trip to Florida on October 11 and a visit from Georgia on October 25. LSU could quickly become a national title favorite if they can pull off wins in all three games.

Do I think the Tigers can do it? Maybe. I think they will drop one of the three games mentioned above.

My prediction is that they will lose to Florida, win the SEC West title, and lose to Georgia in Atlanta (after beating them in the regular season). But hey, you never know—they might win it all again.

Prediction: 11-2, SEC West Champs, Sugar Bowl Berth

7. West Virginia (Athlon No. 7, Phil Steele No. 6, SI No. 14, ESPN No. 7)

Overview: Now that the whole Rich Rodriguez thing has finally died down, for the most part, Mountaineer fans can concentrate on what should be an exciting year. As much as I like the Mountaineers, though, I think they will lose a game or two that they should win.

Bill Stewart led VMI to a career 8-25 record and was kicked off the team for using a racial slur. While I do think the guy is talented, I do not think he will be able to lead this team as effectively as Rich Rod. I think he will make costly decisions that will negatively affect his talented team.

However, the talent level in Morgantown is extremely high. Pat White leads an offensive unit that returns nine starters, and he already has his Heisman website up and running. He is my favorite to win it this year, provided Stewart does not give Noel Devine too many carries and steal the spotlight.

West Virginia has one of the best offensive lines in the nation, which will make the Mountaineers offense extremely powerful. The weak link on offense is the receiving corps, which may have a bad day and cost WVU a ballgame.

Defensively, the Mountaineers return four starters. Two of those returning, linebackers Reed Williams and Mortty Ivy, had the first and second-most tackles last year. The defensive line will also be decent thanks to a transfer or two.

The big question mark is a secondary that returns one starter. A talented receiving corps may be able to throw defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel into fits.

Opponents: Like I said before, this is a team that will lose a game that it should not because of mental mistakes and blown coverages. Will it be in Morgantown against Rutgers on October 4? Or against a UConn team that shared the Big East title last year on November 1? Time will tell, but it will happen.

WVU’s big non-conference game against Auburn in Morgantown on a Thursday will be watched by every hardened college football fan in the country. Look for an Auburn spread offense that will confuse this young defense and convincingly win in a high-scoring matchup.

West Virginia, however, will pull themselves together at the end of the season and not only beat Pitt in the Backyard Brawl (revenge from last year) but also knock out USF in Morgantown on December 6 to seal the Big East title. This will not be a pretty year for the Mountaineers, but they will still win a lot of games.

Prediction: 10-2, Big East Title, BCS at Large Berth

8. Missouri (Athlon No. 6, Phil Steele No. 7, SI No. 4, ESPN No. 9)

Overall: Chase Daniel, last year’s 4,000-plus-yards passer with 33 TDs and 11 INTs, becomes the Missouri offense along with WR Jeremy Maclin. Missouri lost RB Tony Temple and looks to three of last year’s second-stringers, including Derrick Washington, to pick up the slack. The offense only returns six starters from last year's squad.

While this may seem daunting, “Daniel to Maclin” will become the mantra that Missouri lives and dies by. Missouri lost two four-year starters on the offensive line, but the three upperclassmen returning should provide an anchor to what should be a stable, strong offense.

Is a predictable offense necessarily a bad one? Tiger fans do not seem to think so, and neither do I. Whether this is a championship-caliber squad is another question entirely.

Defensively, the Tigers return nine starters that did a relatively mediocre job last year (ranked 59th in total defense and 96th in passing defense, both in terms of yards allowed). Unlike Florida, the Missouri defense did improve over the course of the year, but that does not mean that this should become a stalwart unit overnight.

If (and that is a big if) the defense improves, I can see Missouri making a run for a Big 12 championship and a national title.

Opponents: If I were a Missouri fan, I would love this schedule. Of all the years to have Oklahoma and Texas Tech off their Big 12 slate, this would be the one. Additionally, their neutral-site games bookend the season and will make for some fantastic television.

Kicking off the season, Missouri takes on the Fighting Illini of Illinois in St. Louis. While I think Clemson/Alabama is the best game in August, this one has to be a close second, only because of my ACC and SEC allegiances.

While the Illini still have Juice Williams (but no Rashard Mendenhall) and a decent team that took them to the Rose Bowl last year (where they were thrashed), I simply believe that Illinois will be outclassed by a hungry Missouri team.

If (and I think they can) Missouri can take advantage of Juice’s inability to maintain composure in tough situations and force a few interceptions (Juice’s career touchdown to interception ratio is 22 to 21), this game could be over by the start of the fourth quarter.

With the exception of the Ohio State game last year, Juice did not throw more than one touchdown in a game last year without throwing an interception.

While there might be upset potential at Nebraska on October 4 and hosting Oklahoma State on October 11, I believe this Missouri team will be undefeated into their game at Texas on October 18.

Many prognosticators over the years have been made a fool by counting out Texas. I am not one of them. I believe that Texas, coming off their season’s first loss against Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl the week prior, will be fired up and beat this very talented Missouri team in Austin.

Missouri will then win the rest of their games, including the Border War in Kansas City. They will win that game even though Kansas is hungry for revenge. Kansas simply does not have the talent this year that Missouri has.

The Big 12 championship will go the way it is supposed to go (Oklahoma will win for the same reason why Kansas will lose to Missouri) and land Missouri as the best team without a BCS bid.

Prediction: 11-2, Big 12 North Title

9. Clemson (Athlon No. 10, Phil Steele No. 5, SI No. 11, ESPN No. 6)

Overall: This looks like a championship team. Offensively, the trio of QB Cullen Harper and RBs James Davis (decided not to go pro) and C.J. Spiller look like the most impressive backfield in the country, bar none.

While losing three starting linemen from an underachieving squad last year looks like a tremendous obstacle, Tommy Bowden has quite a bit of talent in the stable if he can develop it effectively (most notably Chris Hairston). The unit returns seven starters total.

This year’s Clemson defense returns eight starters from a defense that was ranked number nine in the nation. I say this is the best secondary and defensive line in the ACC.

Where the problems crop up is linebacker. Graduations, suspensions, lawbreaking, etc. have whittled the unit down to the likes of redshirt freshman Brandon Maye and sophomore Scotty Cooper. This unit is unproven and decidedly shallow.

If they can solve off-the-field issues, this may be the best defense Clemson has seen in years.

Opponents: The Tigers start off strong in traditional Clemson fashion. They play the Crimson Tide of Alabama in Atlanta on August 30 in the game of the month.

While this may surprise some less educated SEC fans, Alabama’s squad is not as talented as Clemson this year, mostly due to age/big game experience and fewer breakout stars. Tommy Bowden and Clemson are not known for early season meltdowns, and this will be no exception.

I love the ACC (I went to UVA undergrad). Now this may not be breaking news, but the ACC has not been all that great recently. Clemson actually has an easier slate overall than any other team in my top ten.

Also, Clemson is by far the cream of the crop in this year’s ACC and will punish the likes of Maryland, Georgia Tech, and Boston College. Can they beat Wake Forest and Jim Grobe on October 9 in Winston-Salem? Maybe.

Clemson is known for a lot of things: Howard’s Rock, Death Valley (II), bright orange, Tiger in the Tank (greatest drink ever), etc. They are also known for tragic and catastrophic meltdowns later in the season.

If I could predict the weekend where the perpetually ticking time-bomb that is Clemson explodes, I would tell you. But to be honest, I am not sure. It may be Wake Forest, Florida State, South Carolina, or even Virginia (really).

Mark my words—Clemson cannot win the national championship because they have not found a way to finish a season strong since 1982.

While I still think they will get to the Orange Bowl, they have to prove to themselves that they can win consistently before they believe in themselves enough and have the confidence to get to a national title game.

In the end, Tommy Bowden’s coaching job will be saved by an ACC title over Miami.

Prediction: 11-2, ACC Title, Orange Bowl Berth

10. Florida (Athlon No. 1, Phil Steele No. 1, SI No. 7, ESPN No. 5)

Overall: There are always one or two teams that the media hypes beyond the bounds of common sense and decency. This is one of them (Virginia Tech and Penn State are the others).

Did anyone else actually watch the Capital One Bowl? I am not going to believe that the Florida secondary has improved until I actually see it improve.

Tim Tebow, Heisman winner and dual-threat quarterback extraordinaire, returns as the undisputed leader of this team. While he probably will not get another Heisman (that has not been accomplished since Archie Griffin in 1974-1975, and Emmanuel Moody and Percy Harvin will probably have too many carries), he will certainly be a force to reckon with.

If Tim Tebow gets hurt, this team will go the way of Oregon quicker than you can say Dennis Dixon.

Percy Harvin at receiver/offensive weapon and Emmanuel Moody (USC transfer) will give Tebow more options than his one-man offense last year. Last year’s “offense” (give the ball to Tebow) produced enough quarterback carries to lead me to believe that Tebow is tempting fate.

Also, I read at ESPN that Percy Harvin has not been 100 percent since his heel surgery. If Tebow and Harvin can remain healthy this season, they certainly have a shot at the SEC championship.

Florida’s offensive line returns three, including the brother of a returning starter (Maurkice Pouncey moves from guard to center, and his brother Mike will start at guard). The offense, in total, returns seven starters.

Defensively, I have a few problems with Florida being a national championship contender, even though they return eight starters. They lost their two best defensive linemen, Clint McMillan and Derrick Harvey, and will start two sophomores and a junior. Sophomores Carlos Dunlap and Lawrence Marsh were highly recruited, but are yet unproven.

While the secondary returns all but one starter, SS Tony Joiner, their back seven is still young. In fact, they will start one senior in the entire defense (DT Javier Estopinan).

Like I said before, I will not believe the dramatic progress that Phil Steele, Athlon, et al. believe will occur until I see it. The Gators will have to prove me wrong.

Opponents: While Hawaii and Miami will be fun to watch to open up the season, I do not think that they will come close to beating Florida. Hawaii lost almost everything they had going for them, and Miami is still in rebuilding mode (although, if they keep Miami/Florida games coming every year, this will be a marquee game in three or four years).

The Gators' trip to Tennessee on September 20 will be their first big test. Everybody in the SEC knows that the rivalry here is not usually front-page news, but it is certainly fierce. If you have not read the Dixieland Delight by Clay Travis, he gives an excellent synopsis of the rivalry. I suggest you pick up that book. The Florida Tebows will probably give Tennessee a run for their money and come out with a close win.

A visit from LSU on October 11 and the Cocktail Party in Jacksonville with Georgia on November 1 loom large. Simply put, I think Florida may beat LSU but will most likely lose to a more talented (overall) Georgia team.

The other loss I predict on the schedule is a stunner by South Carolina. Steve Spurrier haunts Florida fans and is coaching an up and coming team that will surprise a lot of people this year.

I think Florida will be an injury-riddled team late in the year that will not prove to be quite as deep as some other SEC teams (Georgia and LSU come to mind), and some Spurrier magic will catapult his team to a last-second victory. You heard it here first.

Oh yeah, and they will beat Florida State to cap off a slightly disappointing season for Florida.

Prediction: 10-2

Sorry, Gator fans.

College Football: My Preseason Top 25, Part 1

Colin Clark — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 03:39:20 -0400

Update 07/018/08: here is the links to parts 2, 3 and 4:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/35642-college-football-my-preseason-top-25-part-2

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/36513-college-football-my-preseason-top-25-part-3

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/38995-college-football-my-preseason-top-25-part-4

I hope everybody had a great Fourth of July. I set off colorful explosives just as our founders intended. I am going to release my preseason ranking today for my top five teams. I will publish the rest of my Top 25 sometime in the next week

Preseason rankings, as a general rule, are more important than some fans give them credit for. While any team can climb high and low after the rankings are established, most teams are able to play their way into (or out of) any bowl throughout the course of the season.

However, if there are more than two undefeated teams come bowl selection in December, where they placed on the AP list at the beginning of the year matters (see Auburn 2004).

I have picked these teams based on, first and foremost, how strong I think the team is and in a distant second, whether I think they will or will not beat the teams they are facing.

I think anyone who makes rankings looks at what others have done.

I did not copy any sets of rankings, in fact, I included rankings from Athlon, Phil Steele, Stewart Mandel (Sports Illustrated), and Mark Schlabach (ESPN), to show you what they thought.

I made my own decisions, agreeing with some and not with others.

Stewart Mandel’s rankings are current as of May 1 and Mark Schlabach’s are current as of Jun. 25. I do not think either has produced a more recent version.

Without further ado, the first annual Colin Clark preseason rankings:

1. Ohio State (Athlon No. 2, Phil Steele No. 2, SI No. 2, ESPN No. 2)

Overview: Face it, no one actually wants to see these guys in the chase for the crystal football again.

However, they have the best team by a close margin. They have three Heisman candidates—RB Chris “Beanie” Wells, LB James Laurinaitis, and QB Todd Boeckman.

While the Heisman probably will not go to a defensive player (the last one was Charles Woodson from Michigan in 1997, the last one before that was Leon Hart from Notre Dame in 1949) Laurinaitis is probably the best linebacker in the nation.

Ohio State has all the pieces from last year (10 returning on offense, nine on defense) minus Vernon Gholston, the lone OSU player to go early to the NFL.

Opponents: In their favor is a relatively easy slate this year, besides a date with USC on September 13.

I also think they are a hungrier team than this year’s Pete Carroll incarnation and will win convincingly. Their game at Wisconsin provides a great upset opportunity for the Badgers. Finally, look forward to another unhappy Thanksgiving in Ann Arbor.

(Prediction: 12-0, Big Ten Crown, BCS National Title Game—Believe it)

2. Georgia (Athlon No. 5, Phil Steele No. 9, SI No. 1, ESPN No. 1)

Overview: Even though other writers may disagree, this was an easy pick for me. This team significantly heated up over the course of last year and looked like it deserved to be in the SEC championship game even though Tennessee beat them.

They won their last six games last year straight and by no less then ten points. These wins included four ranked teams. Their dominating victory over the (Rainbow) Warriors of Hawaii last January convinced many that they deserved a shot over LSU in the BCS championship game.

While I personally thought that that was a stretch, they looked solid. They return eight starters on offense and nine on defense, as well as the vast majority of their play makers .

Look to Knowshon Moreno and Matt Stafford to lead the Bulldogs to the Promised Land.

The receiving unit looked like the weakest link last year (lots of drops early on in the season), Mohamed Massaquoi (who himself had only one drop all season) will lead this receiving unit that returns few starters and could make or break an otherwise impressively strong team.

Opponents: I don’t know if you heard, but Georgia has a tough schedule. Like Tennessee’s 1998 championship squad and LSU’s 2007 team, a tough schedule will make voters more forgiving and will harden a team and will help them play better in tough situations.

Look forward to a loss at LSU and a win at Florida at this years’ Cocktail Party. While Arizona State will play tough and try to steal a win from Georgia, I don’t think it will happen.

I also predict they will go to Atlanta and win the SEC this year and land a berth in this year’s championship game against Ohio State.

(Prediction: 12-1, SEC Crown, BCS National Title Game)

3. Oklahoma (Athlon No. 3, Phil Steele No. 3, SI No. 6, ESPN No. 3)

Overview: This is a tough looking team. First off, Sam Bradford was the most efficient passer in the game last year as a first-time starter. They return three of four defensive linemen, including the best two DTs in the game, DeMarcus Granger and Gerald McCoy.

In total, they return eight starters on offense and five on defense. Last year was another example of a tradition that has started in Norman: win 10 or 11 games and choke in January (they have lost four of five, the lone win being the only non-BCS appearance).

I feel the chip on the shoulder of this team gets bigger every year. Bob Stoops, who seems to have become underrated nationally as a coach, is excellent at player development and will finally bring home a large trophy.

Opponents: The Big 12 is easily the second-best conference this year. What may keep the Sooners from another BCS berth is a hiccup against Kansas, Texas Tech, or Texas.

While the schedule favors the Sooners (the aforementioned teams play them in Norman) my hunch says that the Red Raiders will stun the Sooners.

The conference strength of the SEC will probably keep a Big 12 team out of the championship game if an SEC team is No. 2 and a Big 12 team is No. 3 and they have the same record. Sorry, Big 12.

(Prediction: 12-1, Big Twelve Champ, Fiesta Bowl Berth)

4. USC (Athlon No. 4, Phil Steele No. 4, SI No. 3, ESPN No. 4)

Overview: Pete Carroll has a recruiting stranglehold in California. Not only has he already got the best QB for next year, Matt Barkley of Mater Dei in Santa Anna, California, that player may well be crowned the top recruit of the 2009 class.

However, herein lies the problem with USC. They are three-deep at every position of kids who would start anywhere else. What kind of team does that create?

Think of our past Dream Teams at the Olympics (Basketball, yes I know, just follow along for a minute). They always seem to be the most talented squad on the floor, but they either win the gold or go home based on how well they play as a team.

The first two Dream teams played well together, the second two… not so much. I feel like this team will not play well enough together to win it all. Will I be surprised if they do? Not in the least.

There is no reason to go through their lineup. They are deep. Trust me.

Opponents: More like opponent. Ohio State. September 13. The media says that the winner of this game is going to be in the National Championship game. And I think they are right.

Besides this gargantuan game, if they hold together, I think they could run the table. Visits to Virgina and UCLA and hosting Oregon, Cal and Arizona State could provide upset potential.

In my heart of hearts (I will be rooting for them over Ohio State) I think Ohio State will win, even though they are playing at the Coliseum.

Both teams have fantastic talent, but I think Ohio State is a more cohesive team and wants the win more. They have more to prove.

(Prediction: 11-1, Pac-10 Champ, Rose Parade Berth)

5. Texas Tech (Athlon No. 18, Phil Steele No. 11, SI No. 8, ESPN No. 8)

Overview: If Texas Tech is ever going to go to a BCS Bowl, this is their year and they know it. Graham Harrell is a legitimate contender for the Heisman and is the best pocket passer in the country, whether that is because the Texas Tech system makes it so irrelevant until NFL draft day or not.

Michael Crabtree, another (sophomore) Heisman candidate, will also lead the Red Raiders catching passes. They return ten starters on offense (ranked No. 2 overall in the country last year) and eight on defense.

Will their defense hold up? I think so. Texas Tech quietly led the Big 12 in defense over their last eight games last year after the debacle at Oklahoma State. They also showed poise in the Gator Bowl by coming back late and beating the best Virginia team of the last few years.

Opponents: This is where the Red Raiders have the opportunity to do very well. They have a cupcake September schedule—E. Washington, at Nevada, SMU and UMass—and they pull Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma State and Baylor at home.

I still think they will lose to Oklahoma. Their road visits include Kansas State, (a not very good) Texas A&M, and Kansas. I think they will beat Kansas, mostly because I believe that Kansas will not score enough points to win.

Look for Texas Tech to attack Kansas corner Kendrick Harper and free safety Justin Thornton, who will probably not live up to their predecessors. Could this game go the other way? Sure. But the smart money is on Texas Tech.

(Prediction: 11-1, BCS at large berth)

Next: My picks No. 6 through No. 10

College Football: One Fan's Ultimate Heresy

Colin Clark — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 06:18:58 -0400

I hate this place.

In case you are not familiar with the picture above, it is Lane Stadium, home of the Virginia Tech Hokies. The sight sends chills down my spine and makes me throw up a little bit in my mouth.

Every time my inept team visits, they are thrashed. Their last win here was in 1998. This fact is subtly pointed out by a beer-soaked fan spitting in my face when I visit.

I hate the Hokies in the purest sense in sports: The sight of Maroon and Orange together makes me cringe (I avoid looking at trees during the fall); I think that the fan base is, objectively speaking, devil-spawn; and I lose two siblings every Thanksgiving. They are dead to me until the Sunday after the game.

I am a University of Virginia Cavaliers fan. I lose a lot of money betting on my team to said siblings almost every Thanksgiving. The Hokies have won eight of the past nine meetings.

That, however, is going to change. Not because my Cavs will magically run the table and win an ACC championship, but because I will not make any more bets.

I am dumping my team like a cheating girlfriend.

It sounds terrible, but it feels so good.

When the Trojans come to Charlottesville this year, I will not try and convince my friends that the Cavs will win. I will not make the same old argument that we were shafted in bowl selection in December.

And I will not fall asleep thinking about how much better I can call plays than Mike Groh. (He picks plays with the mindset of not losing instead of calling plays to win. Some play-calling conservatism is good, but not here.)

I graduated from UVA a year ago, and I am going to law school at LSU in August. No more will I say the last championship team I rooted for was my 1991 Minnesota Twins. By the end of last season I was openly rooting for LSU to embarrass tOSU, and they did.

I probably will not even watch my Miami Dolphins on Sundays this year. (I picked my favorite teams in 1991 when I was six. There was no rhyme or reason except that my brother got the home teams.)

I will not have to abide by the cruel mediocrity of my sports teams. I can now expect more.

My new team beat Virginia Tech 48 to 7 last year. I feel giddy like a kid at Christmas. My new team is headed for a 10-plus win season.

When my buddy asked me who I would root for if UVA ever played LSU, I said I would want UVA to win.

I was lying. I am a bad person. But the Cavs are a bad team.

I still love my lovable losing Cavs, but I love my Tigers more. Geaux Tigers!!!