Bleacher Report - Articles by Rob Ohlstrom

Just Another "Sign Manny Ramirez" Turd: San Francisco Giants' Edition

Rob Ohlstrom — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 17:59:45 -0500

I want meaningful baseball in September.

I want runs.

I want bombs to return to China basin.

I want Barry Zito to apologize and void the rest of his contract.

Manny Ramirez can deliver those things.

(Except Zito of course. Seriously though, if you're a Giants' employee, and you're talking about the staff, stop throwing Zito in between Lincecum and Cain as if he's an asset. He's a borderline fifth starter, and if his name was Chad Zerbe he'd be playing for the Pawtucket Pirates. Prosecuting Zito would be my first order of business if I were running for DA. He is unquestionably the worst signing in the history of professional anything, and it's an insult to your fans when you pretend he's not.)

Manny wants four years for $25 million apiece. Give him $75 million for three years. If he doesn't take it, you tried. If he does, the Giants become the favorite in a weak division, and he's kept from the Dodgers.

Manny has milestones coming up. He's one of the greatest hitters of all time and his bat hasn't slowed. Think he won't fill the park? Think a winning team won't fill the park? He won't sell jerseys, $12 souvenir beer cups, and those horrible dreadlock hats for $35 a pop? Come on!

This is a team that just threw away $18 million on a player who's batting average dropped 50 points last year. A team that threw away $126 million on the worst pitcher in baseball. A team that hit less home runs last year than any year dating back to before WWII.

A team that features a park that free-agent hitters are scared of, and a team expecting a bevy of talent from the minors in the next two years, at least.

A team with nothing to lose.

Sign Manny.

Bridge the gap between right now and the future.

Sign Manny and maybe he gets you to the playoffs.

Let this team be fun to watch again.

Searching for Hart Candidates to Accompany Alexander

Rob Ohlstrom — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 13:07:26 -0500

Awards season is approaching, and it’s an important time.

Now that the All-Star break is past, it’s time to jump on our favorites for the major awards, promote them incessantly throughout the regular season, and pronounce them as the best players in hockey.

With the right combination of hype and repetition, the Hart can be a lock come February.

Before I begin I want to explain my three personal criteria of what makes a player an MVP candidate.

Points matter: The object of the game is to outscore your opponents. Which is the idea of every game except golf, and all these other games, except golf, routinely hand out their MVP awards to the most dominant offensive player.

(Golf doesn’t award an MVP because all the players are out for themselves).

Playoffs matter: What does it say about you if you’re the MVP of a losing team? Without you they’d be winners?

The last thing I look for in my Hart candidate is a player’s far reaching impact towards the betterment and promotion of Hockey as a whole. When you factor in these parameters into your decision I’m afraid the answer becomes fairly obvious—a young, dynamic player with mass appeal who the league markets at every opportunity.

Unfortunately, that player, Sidney Crosby, plays for a team that’s currently out of the playoffs, so with that in mind we’re left with one, obvious choice:

Alex Ovechkin. He’s the best player on the second best team in the conference, he leads the league in goals and is third in points, he’s arguably the best player in the league, he plays on the east coast, and he hits people (Which any European player needs to do in order to prove that he’s not soft).

It’s in the bag. Unfortunately the NHL is obligated to nominate three players for the Hart, so for the sake of argument, let’s weed out the two los—er, runner-ups—who’ll get decked out in black tie and be forced to suffer through Nickelback and the sight of the great N.8 hoisting the hardware in six months.

We’ll start in the East:

Boston Bruins

Zdeno Chara

To be honest, I just read that one of the ESPN guys liked him for the honor and put him here. I really haven’t seen him play that much.

Marc Savard

He plays for the best team in the East, he’s the premier set-up man in the conference, and he’s a top ten scorer. Of course, nominating him would insinuate that he might be better then Joe Thornton. I can’t do that. I won’t do that.

Tim Thomas

Goalies have their own award, the Vezina. Just like pitchers can’t win the MVP in baseball because they have the Cy, and relief pitchers can’t win the Cy because they have the Rolaids relievers cup, or something.

New Jersey Devils

Zach Parise

If I’m not nominating Savard, I’m sure as hell not nominating Parise.

Martin Brodeur

Again, see Tim Thomas. Except Brodeur will win the Vezina, whereas Thomas, he’ll just be nominated.

And while we’re here, don’t try to tell me that Brodeur’s absence should disqualify him for the award. If anything, his absence has made the Devils stronger.

By not being there, he’s forced them to be a better team then if he had been there. If that’s not the definition of valuable, I don’t know what is. I’m gonna have to break one of my own rules here, he’s nominated.

(Wait, that’s not good for the game.)

Nevermind.

Montreal Canadians

United States first, Canada second, France 43rd. There’s not going to be anything French-Canadian going on here, because this is America. It doesn’t matter that most of us don’t care about hockey—Nickelback will be playing, and the banquet takes place in Canada.

New York Rangers

Jaromir Jagr

It’s been a bit of a down year for Jaromir. Haven’t really heard much from him.

Chris Drury

Chris Drury is the most clutch scorer in the National Hockey League. Unfortunately, he scores like Steve Ott the rest of the time.

Philadelphia Flyers

Jeff Carter

My buddy is a huge Flyers fan, so I’ve spent a few nights watching the Flyers play at his house. I feel pretty secure when I say he’s been impressive, but not Hart-impressive.

(Of course my buddy has a small TV and I have a hard time telling the difference between Carter and Scott Hartnell. We also tend to drink heavily and have short attention spans)

Pittsburgh Penguins

Sidney Crosby

He’s the perfect player, and although his team has stunk despite having two of the top three players in the league I’m just going to cross my fingers and insist they’ll make the playoffs until I’m blue in the face. Sidney’s nominated.

Evgeni Malkin

Through 48 games the Penguins aren’t a playoff team, and I’m sure that without him they’d still not be a playoff team. I don’t care how many points he’s scored. You’re out Evgeni, Apologies.

On to the West...

San Jose Sharks

Joe Thornton

He’s the best player on the best team in hockey, but let’s face it—he doesn’t have nearly as many goals as Ovechkin, the majority of his games start after ten, and in his past three playoffs he has only 30 points in 35 games. Clearly he can’t get it done.

Patrick Marleau

The leading goal scorer in the Western Conference, but that’s only good for fifth in the league—and we know the East is the tougher conference to play in because Ovechkin, Crosby, and Malkin play there. So to hell with Patrick Marleau.

Dan Boyle

Boyle has been the missing piece of the Sharks puzzle. He’s revolutionized their offense and has been excellent in his own end.

But here’s the problem. Defensmen have their own trophy, I believe it’s called the Lidstrom Blade, and Boyle is going to lose the Lidstrom Blade to Nik Lidstrom (hence the name).

Not even Gary Bettman would be stupid enough to allow a defenseman to be nominated for the league MVP when he can’t even win the award for his position.

I’m talking to you too, Zdeno.

Detroit Red Wings

Pavel Datsyuk

Pavel Datsyuk has fewer points then A) Alexander Ovechkin and B) Evgeni Malkin. Logic dictates that they must be better players. Evgeni Malkin is already not going to be nominated. How can we nominate Pavel?

Henrik Zetterberg

He has even less points the Datsyuk.

(Hey! Two-What? Two-way?? Then say hello to the Selke, Henrik!)

Nik Lidstrom

The thing about Nik Lidstrom is that he’s the best defenseman in the league. He wins the Lidstrom Blade every year.

Chicago Blackhawks

Jonathan Toews

I was on TSN the other day looking at their sabermetric player rankings, and Toews was a paltry 78.72—22 points behind Ovechkin. A whole point behind Paul Stastny. Paul Stastny!

Calgary Flames

Jarome Iginla

When God carved out a hockey player, right after he carved out Crosby and Ovechkin of course, he carved out Jarome Iginla. Nobody plays with more heart then Iginla.

(That’s H-e-a-r-t, not H-a-r-t)

Unfortunately, it’s best to nominate a player from a Canadian team, and since we’re not taking teams from French Canadia and the other four Canadian teams aren’t very good, Jarome gets in by default.

So there you go: Alex Ovechkin wins the Hart while Sidney Crosby and Jarome Iginla fake smiles over the split screen. I don't see any other way.

Ten Series I'd Like To See During the Stanley Cup Playoffs

Rob Ohlstrom — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 11:15:08 -0500

Scott Reese (sideline reporter)—"Seto, talk to me about the importance of momentum in a game like this and building on previous shifts."

Devin Setoguchi—"It’s huge. I mean, we’re playing the best team in the league so you never want to turn pucks over and give them momentum so we have to make sure—"

Joe Thornton (leaning into the picture, interrupting)"—We’re the best team in the league."

-Jan. 17, HP Pavilion. Sharks vs. Red Wings

Two Saturdays ago the Sharks hosted the Red Wings in what turned out to be the greatest game of the season. Their first two meetings weren’t close. The first a San Jose 4-2 victory, and the second a 6-0 Detroit shellacking in which Nabby was chased off the ice.

Their third meeting on the 17^th finally brought out the best from both sides and the result was everything you could want as a sports fan: Two evenly matched teams, a step ahead of everyone else racing up and down the ice, trading goals; a match-up with the potential to be the kind of rivalry that comes up every 10 years or so, the kind of rivalry that’s just, well, special.

Which got me thinking that’s not the only match up I’d like to see this spring.

Western Conference Quarterfinals:

San Jose-Dallas

Dallas is currently tied for 11^th, but the Stars are only four points out of the eighth seed, and they have four games in hand on the Ducks. There’s a lot to like about this matchup. Last year’s series was capped with a classic four-OT game six that left Dallas so spent they rolled over to the Red Wings in the conference finals.

Anaheim-Detroit

There’s a little history here…

Calgary-Edmonton

And there’s a lot here. Any time the phrase “Battle of Alberta” is thrown around I’m game.

As a consolation I’d be willing to take Flames-Nucks instead.

Eastern Quarterfinals:

Washington-Pittsburgh

Crosby vs. Ovechkin

Ovechkin vs. Malkin

Mike Yeo vs. the power play…

By the way, watching Malkin go between the legs every time he had the puck near the crease and wondering how long it would take before one of the players from the West laid him out was my favorite running subplot of the All-Star game. I’m 100 percent positive Marty Turco would’ve speared him.

(Speaking of the All-Star game)

Marleau-Thornton-Iginla

Take two thirds of the league’s best line, add the best right wing in the world, and you have what should be the top line for the Hockey Canada next winter in Vancouver. I watched the game trying to figure out if there was any way in hell this could be duplicated in the NHL, and decided that the Olympics was the only way. Think of it, Gold medal game against the Russians, Malkin goes between the legs only to be speared by Turco. Ovechkin skates over and is intercepted by Iginla. Their hands get a little sweaty, maybe their gloves come off.

(Of course, Hockey Canada is contractually obligated to roll out Sidney Crosby on any top line until 2022).

Western Semifinals:

Chicago-Detroit

I once knew a Chicago transplant who informed me that even though he was a Blackhawk fan the Sharks were his third and sometimes second favorite team. When I asked how this was possible he replied that the Hawks were his favorite team, whoever was playing Detroit was his second favorite team, and that some nights the Sharks played Detroit.

San Jose-Calgary

They’ve met three times in the playoffs, went to seven twice and six the other time. As if they needed anymore fuel to the fire, Mr. Sloppy Seconds himself filmed a commercial over the summer where he arrogantly boasted that he couldn’t afford to enjoy his hits. The player he was hitting in the commercial? Patrick Marleau.

The result of their first meeting? Sharks 6, Flames 0.

Although, to be honest, I’d rather see Calgary play Detroit. This matchup is why the one seed is going to be so important in the West. The runner-up will have to play the Flames, and the difference between San Jose and Detroit will probably come down to which one didn’t have to play Calgary—just a tough, punishing team that’s going to take something out of you in a seven-game series.

Eastern Semifinals:

Boston-Montreal

If you follow Boston sports you have Sox-Yankees, Celtics-Lakers, Patriots-Colts, and Bruins-Habs.

Rivalries are nice.

Western Finals:

San Jose-Detroit

If this doesn’t happen I’m going to feel cheated, and so should you.

Eastern Finals:

Boston-Washington

The Caps are the one team in the East that really gives Boston trouble. This series would have three MVP candidates, Tim Thomas playing out of his mind, the best player in hockey, and the most obnoxious fans on the planet.

Stanley Cup Finals:

San Jose-Boston

This one’s straight out of a film:

Boston trades their best player for 65 cents on the dollar. He’s hampered by insinuations that he can’t deliver in the playoffs and is too soft to be truly great. As the season progresses they come to find that he’s matured into the best player in the league and wins both the Hart and Art Ross. Since the trade he leads the league in scoring and four years later they meet in the Stanley Cup Finals.

That’s a hell of a story.

An Open Letter to San Francisco 49ers Head Honcho Jed York

Rob Ohlstrom — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 03:37:45 -0500

Dear Jed,

I wanted to take a moment to congratulate on your ascension to the top of the franchise. Out with the old, in with the new, as I always say, and that’s great.

I know you’re busy, Jed, working hard to move the team out of the antiquated dump in Candlestick point, down to a state of the art football cathedral in Santa Clara, to think of the ideas that must be running through your head!

A new stadium, attached to a mega mall, luxury boxes, and personal seat licenses?

I know you can do it, Jed. I trust that you’ll find a way to allocate public money in order to build this new wonder for all to enjoy.

And I will tell you that right now I’ll be first in line to purchase my very own personal seat licenses, drive an extra hour to every game, and slap down another Andrew Jackson in the very hand of Sally the parking attendant who’ll work the new lot.

I can’t wait to take the 30 minute walk from my car to my PSL’s in the upper deck.

In fact, I dream about it often.

But as a fan of the 49ers, I’ve already received my wish for this season. The team played so horribly that Mike Nolan was fired.

To ice the cake, your parents, in what can only be a gesture of mercy, stepped away from the business of running what was once a marquee franchise straight into the ground and bestowed you, their 27-year-old son upon the faithful.

Ah, to be rebuilding again!

And the 49ers are rebuilding, Jed, make no mistake about that. Don’t let them fool you Jed, this team is rotten. As a longtime fan, I want to let you know something, those others might act like they’ll be happy with a team being competitive, but they aren’t Raider’s fans Jed, they’re spoiled.

They won’t claim blind allegiance to their team and turn their head at the sounds of gross mismanagement. A division title might buy you a year, but the year after? Forget it. You’ll need to start winning playoff games.

You won’t be able to rest easily then either, Jed. You’ll get one, maybe two years tops where a win or two in the playoffs will be enough, after that, it’s the Super Bowl. You got to bring back Lombardi.

Last I heard, Lombardi wasn’t taking any calls from the 415.

It’s a sad state of affairs, I know.

But the rest of these fans, they aren’t like me. They don’t appreciate what they have. They don’t appreciate the memories. They are blood-thirsty Jed, and their thirst will not be slated until you put together a winner. A new stadium won’t be enough for these whiners!

So let me take you back Jed, before you get gloomy, and let me spin you on a positive track. I’ve got the blue print for turning the team around right here. You follow my simple instructions, and not only will you get that shiny new stadium, but those fans will be lining up behind me to fill those seats.

After watching Mike Singletary, I’ve become convinced that he’s a dangerous lunatic, yet he’s probably earned the right to keep the job. He can hold Mike Martz in check, and Martz can be a pretty good offensive coordinator when he has a leash around his neck.

On top of which, us fans love him! After Dennis Erickson and Mike Nolan erased any association the 49ers have with joy, you could put Tom Cable on the sidelines and we’d eat it up.

Now, if someone comes along like, I don’t know, Mike Holmgren, you should strongly consider showing Singletary the door. Or better yet, maybe Holmgren might want to play GM.

Now, if this happens, I’m not saying that you should just go out and fire Scot McCloughan in this scenario, but I’m sure he would take a demotion to say, unemployment.

I also think you should keep Shaun Hill as the starter. No need to sign anyone. Don’t sign Matt Cassel or Donovan McNabb. McNabb’s a loser and Cassel hasn’t figured out how to use the best receiver in the league. I doubt he’d do much better with Arnaz Battle and Bryant Johnson.

The way I see it, Shaun Hill can keep this team competitive for the next two seasons, and in that time you have two drafts to find a quarterback. Carry four on the roster, maybe even five, you just need to find one. There has got to be somebody, somewhere, in this draft who’ll mature into a Pro Bowl quarterback.

Find him!

Now, a lot of people are going to whisper in your ear about flashy No. 1 receivers to stretch the field and open up the offense, and you know what? Those receivers are great, but we don’t need one.

What we need is a pass rush. Every successful defense in the history of the league has been able to pressure the quarterback, but this team can’t do that.

So find a guy that can get after the quarterback.

See how easy this is, Jed?

Once you’ve fired McCloughan, convinced Holmgren to come back as GM, kept Singletary, retained Martz, resisted signing a big name free agent quarterback, kept Shaun Hill as the starter, unearthed a young quarterback capable of leading the team to multiple championships, and drafted a young pass rusher who blossoms into an all-pro, well, you’ll be well on your way.

Division championship, maybe even a couple of playoff wins, and who knows?

A Super Bowl run?

A return to glory?

You do that Jed, they may even consider buying PSL's.

Sincerely,

Rob

Five NFL Players Who Broke Out in 2008

Rob Ohlstrom — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 04:04:41 -0500

Two summers ago my brother gave me a call about a young Giant’s pitcher who’d shot through the farm system in a matter of weeks and was called up to the club. He arrived with electrifying stuff, but he was inconsistent. My favorite moment of his rookie season was when he threw three innings, arrogant, nasty, and un-hittable, before coming out and getting shelled in the fourth. Although he wasn’t able to keep it up throughout the game, those first three innings were a glimpse into what he could be. His arrival was a shot in the arm that a moribund team needed. This past season that pitcher, Tim Lincecum, made the leap. It’s one of the most underrated experiences in sports, that moment or season when the guy you’ve been pulling for makes that jump. When he puts everything together and is able to impose his will on his opponents. Here’re five that have made that leap and have tied themselves to the fortunes of their teams, for better, or worse.

Begin Slideshow

The Real Problem with the Indianapolis Colts Offense

Rob Ohlstrom — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 10:48:54 -0500

The window closes.

Just like how the pretty girl will lose interest eventually if you don’t ask her out or that road trip down to Key West fades away when the price of gas goes back up. Every window closes.

For the better part of the decade the Indianapolis Colts have been one of the best teams in the NFL.

They were an explosive, exciting team to watch. Their quarterback played his position so well that if he didn’t come out and dominate it felt like it tarnished his legacy somehow.

Now their window is closing.

If they suffered a weakness over the years it was the fact that they lacked grit. It’s ironic that grit is the one thing that’s holding them together.

The one strength they’ve always had is that they’ve been one of the best offenses in the league. This year their success has almost been in spite of that offense.

The Colt’s offensive woes go across the board, you can find them on every level. Even Manning, who appears to be healthy after gutting his way through the start of the season isn’t the same player he was just three years ago. This fall off isn’t great, but it’s a symptom that runs through the entire offense. They aren’t what they were.

The receiving corps is a mess. Last year Reggie Wayne assumed the mantle of Marvin Harrison and he thrived. This year he’s battled through some nickel and dime injuries, double teams, and has dropped a few passes Reggie Wayne doesn’t drop. Watching over the past few weeks I can’t help but get the sense that something’s wrong.

There’s no mystery as to why Marvin Harrison is a shell of himself. Players do not always make it back from major injuries. Jerry Rice was never the same player after his knee injury yet he was still able to be productive for several years. Harrison is at a stage in his career where he can still be productive, but he’s not a top two wide receiver anymore, he’s a three at best.

Dallas Clark is coming off a career year, with 11 touchdowns. This year he’s been afraid to get hit. I don’t know how else to say it. He’s afraid to get hit, he’s dropping passes in traffic and as a result he’s no longer reliable.

Anthony Gonzalez may mature into the two slot, but he’s young and inconsistent. He’s still just a solid number three receiver, he still needs to marinate for awhile before he’s ready to supplant Harrison.

They’ve struggled to run the ball.

Joseph Addai has been hurt. The line has had trouble opening up running lanes. Or maybe he’s not as good as we were lead to believe. Dominick Rhodes has played well, but he’s still just Dominick Rhodes.

Their biggest problem has been the offensive line. The problems began before last season with Tarik Glenn’s surprise retirement. Tony Ugoh has played admirably in his place, but Glenn was one of the best.

Jeff Saturday missed time at the beginning of the season, and didn’t play last week when the offense mustered just three points against the Browns. He’s questionable for this week’s game against the Bengals, and may very well be the single most important man on the Colt’s offense other then Peyton Manning.

They’re coming down the stretch full of questions. If Saturday gets healthy, then the line can come together. If the line comes together Joseph Addai finds room to run. With opponents forced to respect the run the passing offense will start to open up, the improved line play will give Peyton more time to throw and they’re suddenly a contender again.

Colts fans can get ready for a deep playoff run and fantasy owners can smile again.

But the window’s no longer wide open.

Sean Avery Is Killing The Dallas Stars

Rob Ohlstrom — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 19:53:58 -0500

So Sean Avery, journeyman, is suspended for referring to Elisha Cuthbert as sloppy seconds.

Pretty weak reason to suspend a guy.

But that's my opinion.

What's not just my opinion is that the Stars were a damn good team last year(without Avery) and this year they suck.

The Dallas Stars suck.

I'm going to type that one more time because I like the way it looks.

The Dallas Stars suck.

***

He's tearing apart the team.

Marty Turco stared at his feet while he spoke:

We expect that out of him like we have all year...ah...yeah, and the show continues.

Brad Richards shook his head sadly and avoided the camera while offering up:

I don't know what he says...so..it's none of my business what he says and I'd rather not talk about Sean. He's got his own things going on.

Ringing endorsements to be sure. Now maybe this isn't the sentiments of the team, but Turco and Richards are two of the Star's best players, much better then Avery, and all they can do is bite their tongues while they shift uneasily when they should be supporting their teammate.

Mike Modano has already come out and said before this entire fiasco occured that he didn't want to be part of a team that conducted itself in the manner in which the Stars are doing. He added:

It's way out of the ordinary and way out of what we expect out of each other, and you know... It's gonna be dealt with and how it plays out, I'm not sure.

Avery's coach, Dave Tippett:

To announce something like that for everybody to hear, to me that crosses the line.

It's not enough to read the quotes, seek out the soundbites. Look at the body language of his teammates and his coach. Avery is a cancer. He's not getting suspended because he said sloppy seconds. He's getting suspended by Bettman because he had it coming.

Star's ownership supported the decision because his absence might just save their season.

Without Avery the Stars took Calgary 2-1.

As a Sharks fan I can't wait for his return.

The Value of Luck in Fantasy Football: Looking Ahead to Next Year's Draft

Rob Ohlstrom — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 03:21:58 -0500

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky then good. That doesn’t apply to everything. Most of the time, it doesn’t apply to football. Nine times out of 10, good teams get good breaks and bad teams don’t. But luck applies to fantasy.

At some point Sunday, I flipped over to Clinton Portis writhing on ground for the second time and tried to block out the fact that Jim Zorn is so determined to get his team into the playoffs (and keep his job) that he’s willing to kill Portis to do so.

I take exception to that.

I got him with the ninth pick in my draft at the beginning of the season. I thought the ninth was the worst pick, and I wasn’t entirely thrilled with him. Looking back, I was lucky to come out with one of the best RBs of 2008.

The first round is a place where you want to secure a low-risk/high-reward stud to carry your team through the season. Looking back on my draft this season, it's clear the first round was absolutely brutal:

1) L.T.

2) Westbrook

3) Peterson

4) Addai

5) Brady

6 )Steven Jackson

7) Barber

8) Moss

9) Portis

10) Lynch

That’s a minefield.

L.T.’s been in your line up every week, so he hasn’t been killing you, but he’s not carrying your team either. Westbrook’s been all over the place, he’s missed a little time, and he’s had a couple of big games, a couple of bad games.

Addai has struggled. His O-line has been a mess, and he’s missed time. If you drafted Brady, it killed your season. Jackson’s hardly played, Brady’s injury made Moss pedestrian, and Lynch hasn’t played well.

You’re happy if you were lucky enough to draft Peterson, Barber, or Portis. I do mean lucky. I was hoping Jackson, Moss, or Barber would fall to me in that order.

I got lucky. Now I just have to hope that he makes it through the playoffs.

Now what’s the great thing about such a horrible first round?

It throws next year’s draft on its head. After Adrian Peterson, there’s no clear-cut top five pick. It’s almost like the days before the newsstands were flooded with fantasy magazines and before ESPN employed a small army of writers to host banal podcasts and write horrible stories about how dull their social lives are in between bombarding us with fantasy information that everyone knows already.

Nobody knows anything. It’s entirely possible 10 guys can show up to a draft with 10 completely different cheat sheets, that the guy you have ranked No. 2 falls all the way down to the end of the first.

By taking a look at taking a look at who the likely top 20 backs are next year, we can get an idea on just how arbitrary next year is shaping up to be. Who knows? Maybe someone will even spend a first rounder on Larry Johnson.

2) Marion Barber III

With the second pick in the draft, the Little Urban Achievers select...

3) Chris Johnson

To me, he’s a no-brainer. I’d take him in the first, easy. With a little luck, LenDale White will eat himself right out of their timeshare.

4) Michael Turner

If he finishes the season with less then 370 carries, he’s a top five pick right now. Even before last week’s huge game, he was ranked fourth among running backs in standard leagues.

5) Frank Gore

Let’s face it, he should’ve been the 10th pick in my league ahead of Lynch. He’s a first rounder again, maybe even top five. But I don’t want to take him any higher.

6) Joseph Addai

Addai feels like he could be top five with a good finish to the season and no major changes to the Colt offensive line.

7) Matt Forte

So much to love, so let’s dwell on the negative: He’s only averaging 4.0 YPC right now. 4.0 today leads to 3.7 tomorrow.

8) Ronnie Brown

He’s coming off ACL surgery from a year ago. Historically, that’s an injury that takes two years to fully come back from. I can slide him into the first round.

9) Brian Westbrook

So many questions; I don’t even know where to start with him. He’ll be 30 next year, too. I don’t think he’s done yet.

10) LaDainian Tomlinson

He’s clearly dropped off. You can blame the toe. I’m going to point out that he bulked up on weak teams last season, he’s probably had more touches than any other player in history by his 30th birthday, which , coincidentally, will take place between now and next season. He’s not only dropped out of the top five, I think he’s dropped out of the first round.

11) Maurice Jones-Drew

Fred Taylor’s finished. Mojo scores touchdowns and he catches passes. I’m not so sure he can carry the load by himself, but even if he can’t he shouldn’t be a total bust. Interesting pick

12) Steven Jackson

I think it’s safe to say he’s injury prone. High risk, high reward.

13) Clinton Portis

Three words:

Major offseason surgery.

(It’s coming)

14) Brandon Jacobs

He’s a beast. He also shares the backfield with two other guys that are talented enough to start, and he misses time every year with injuries. In a standard league? I could take him in the late first. Maybe.

15) Ryan Grant

I think he’s proven that he’s a RB2.

16) Marshawn Lynch

You don’t win when he’s your RB1.

17) Thomas Jones

Can’t do it. I just can’t. He’s 30 right now, he’s never been consistent year to year, and he’s Thomas Jones.

18) DeAngelo Williams

I like DeAngelo Williams. I respect DeAngelo Williams.

But I have never trusted DeAngelo Williams.

19) Steve Slaton

Not in the first.

20) Reggie Bush

If you’re in a PPR or a league that counts return stats and can convince yourself that he’s going to finish the season yeah, go right ahead. But you’re taking a running back who can’t run. Let that sink in.

A sorry state of affairs to be certain.

Your first-round pick should be the foundation of your team, a rock. Some of these guys will pay you back in spades, others will blow up in your face. There’s no way of knowing.

Next year, when you take a guy you don’t really want and ride him into the playoffs, don’t pat yourself on the back, take a look at the busts you would’ve picked ahead of him had they been available and consider yourself lucky.

I do.

In Defense Of The Bandwagon Fan

Rob Ohlstrom — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 03:27:33 -0500

I love sports. I spend every Sunday on the couch, it’s established. I probably miss five Shark’s games a year. It irritates my wife, hinders my ability to get anything done, and if you replaced sports with Wild Turkey, I’d be encouraged to go to meetings.

Is my life slipping by while I’m staying up past midnight to finish the game I recorded hours earlier, or checking to see if Clinton Portis is injured on my computer at work?

Well…yeah.

But I enjoy it.

Five years ago I was enjoying the Giants, religiously. Now I enjoy the Giants when Tim Lincecum pitches, and I rarely watch otherwise. I don’t watch Barry Zito getting paid more then I make in a year to go out and give up 10 runs in 4 2/3’s innings, and I’m certainly not buying a ticket.

I feel the same way when the 49ers are mismanaged to the point that they’ve become the laughing stock of the league and the only hope offered is in the form of a 27 year old whose greatest qualification for running what was once the greatest franchise in all of football is the fact that “he really wants it”.

Yeah, because otherwise it was one of the other 40-50 million people in this country who love football and/or money.

A dying breed really.

Ladies and Gentlemen of San Francisco: The John and Denise York era!

My point, after my bloated introduction is this:

I may stick with my teams through thick and thin, I haven’t abandoned any of them, I’ve owned Reggie Wayne in enough fantasy leagues through consecutive years that some states recognize us as having a common law marriage, but I don’t own his jersey.

(I’ve thought about it though.)

As fans we like to pride ourselves on sticking with our teams as if we were in a marriage. We look down on the fair weathers, and wagon jumpers.

But the point of watching sports is to enjoy yourself.

So what’s wrong with rooting for the teams that always win? (Other then the fact that it’s detestable on a spiritual level, but that’s all a bunch of ocean front property in Arizona anyway, so really, who cares?)

This is big business. Donovan McNabb is being paid millions to play like a man who doesn’t care whether he wins or loses. Owners of losing franchises raise ticket prices year after year.

Where’s the loyalty to you?

I love the 49ers. I’ve felt that way since I was a little kid, and no matter how hard I try from time to time I still get sucked in. Yet I know the York’s are incompetent and I have no hope that the team will ever win the Super Bowl. Raiders’ fans, at least, can hope that Al Davis doesn’t wake up tomorrow, but my team has been a black hole for years and there’s no light at the end of the tunnel.

Yet somehow, there’s something admirable about sticking with them. Supporting a franchise being run into the ground by a rich couple that don’t seem to care about the team or its’ fans?

You’re telling me that knowing going into this season that my team is going to suck, and just sticking it out, for as long as it takes, is better, then jumping on the Patriots wagon a few years back before jumping on with Eli and the Giants right now?

Really?

Isn’t the point of sports enjoyment?

Doesn’t it suck to watch a loser?

Following the same team is loyal, sure.

In the past five years I’ve suffered through Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, Cody Pickett, Alex Smith, Trent Dilfer and JT O’Sullivan.

Bandwagon jumpers don’t have to do that.

And I’ve always thought I was better.

I keep putting money on the same horse and he keeps losing.

I think there’s a word for that.

Raider Nation Waits for Death

Rob Ohlstrom — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 04:49:22 -0400

“I always said we were a few injuries from a pretty good team, we just had to get Al’s guys out of there.”

-Michael Lombardi, former Raiders executive

I have a friend whose grandfather was sick with Alzheimer’s 10 years ago. She’d go to visit him in the hospital a couple times a month. As his condition worsened, it became quite painful to see him, but see kept going even after he couldn’t remember who she was.

This friend also happens to be an attractive young woman.

A while after he couldn’t remember she was his granddaughter, he started coming on to her and began grabbing at places your grandfather should never grab...It didn’t take long before she stopped coming to visit.

Monday with my co-worker:

Handsome Man-You guys should be 3-1 right now.

*Frank*(Not his real name)-It doesn’t matter as long as Al’s around.

The day I finally gave up on Al Davis was the day he brought Art Shell back. I always questioned running Jon Gruden out of town, and Al liked to bring in his token projects who’d never work out, (James Jett, for instance), but I figured Al always deserved the benefit of the doubt until he went back to Art Shell.

Before the season at Safeway:

Obnoxious Clerk-Raiders going to the playoffs this year?

GuyInTimBrownJersey-That’d be something.

OC-Never shoulda fired Gruden.

GITBJ-They’re kind of a mess.

OC-I got a feeling this year.

GITBJ-You got a feeling Al’s gonna pass away?

I’m not a Raider fan. I’ve enjoyed them, even rooted for them at times, but I’ve also rooted against them and take a perverse pleasure in listening to overly optimistic friends and co-workers say things like this year’s team should go 10-6, or that JaMarcus Russell will make the Pro Bowl.

As a fanbase, they’re often overly optimistic. I’ve always known them this way, but lately the incompetence seems to be wearing on them. The commitment to excellence doesn’t ring true anymore, and as a result, more and more are turning against Al.

The once optimistic suddenly have this dead space in the back of their eyes when talking about this year’s team, like they’re removed from the present and watching some great Raider club they remembered from the days of Stabler or Plunkett.

Underneath this lays the knowledge, even if some of them refuse to admit it, that the man who brought the franchise to what it is, the man who put the meaning behind the name Raider, isn’t the hell raiser who terrorized the NFL for the past 40 years.

The sickness in fans stomach isn’t the self-loathing from wishing the old man would simply pass away, but from the product he puts out every Sunday.

Two weeks ago:

Young Child-Did the Raider’s win?

Handsome Man-No, they blew it.

YC-They always lose.

HM-Pretty much.

YC-Why?

HM-Well, the guy who runs the team has kinda screwed it up.

YC-They need to fire him.

HM-They can’t, he’s the owner.

YC-He should sell the team then!

HM-I don’t think he wants to sell the team.

YC(Thoughtfully)-So the Raiders are going to suck until he dies?

HM-Ehh…

Saints Put the 49ers In Their Place

Rob Ohlstrom — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 04:23:04 -0400

Somebody needs to tell 49er fans and the boys over at NFL MatchUp to hold the parade—J.T. O’Sullivan still has a long way to go.

For one quarter, they controlled the game. They moved the ball a little on offense, they came after Drew Brees and kept New Orleans in check on defense. Then...hell broke loose.

After a successful first drive that resulted in a field goal, the 49er offense stalled. In the beginning of the second quarter, O’Sullivan held on to the ball too long, took a hit from behind and coughed it up.

The defense, which had been successful at blitzing Brees, stopped. Brees, in return, was able to sit back and pick the secondary apart. At the half, the score was 21-6 and the game was effectively over.

It was a sobering reality check for a fan base that had allowed itself to get overly optimistic after consecutive wins against two of the lesser teams in the NFL.

I know, I let them suck me back in.

I got caught up with the excitement of the Seahawks victory, enjoyed the blowout win against the Lions (Did you catch them upset USC on Thursday?), and came into Sunday’s game having convinced myself that they had a great chance to go down to Louisiana and come out 3-1.

What a dolt.

The offense simply fell apart against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

It started with play calling, Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz, refused to acknowledge that the offensive line couldn’t hold off the Saints rush alone and he continued to dial up empty backfields with minimum protection.

The defense needed to stay off the field during the horrific stretch in the second quarter, but he stubbornly stuck to the pass despite the fact that the line was struggling in pass protection and O’Sullivan looked shaky.

By the third quarter, it was clear that O’Sullivan was looking to WR Arnaz Battle nearly every time he dropped back, and even prompted the Tim Green to remark that O’Sullivan was making up his mind before the snap where he was going to go.

O’Sullivan’s decision making led to two back-breaking second half interceptions in the end zone, which were intended for Battle—both times he had two defenders all over him.

It wasn’t just the offense. The aforementioned Drew Brees cut through the secondary like a surgeon, the front four couldn’t generate any pressure, and Deuce McAllister looked like he turned the clock back to 2006.

Even 49er Head Coach Mike Nolan got into the act by throwing away a time out by challenging a six yard pass play on a first down at midfield—in the third! Easily the most inexplicable challenge I’ve ever seen.

But coming from Mike Nolan, I can’t say it surprised me.

Just take a deep breath, and remember that this season we're playing with the house's money.

Screw It, I'm Starting Josh Morgan

Rob Ohlstrom — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 12:03:29 -0400

I’m moving on Josh Morgan this week.Faced with what I’m sure is a typical “week four dilemma,” and with three of my top four wide receivers on the bye, I was forced to start Josh Reed and Kevin Walter this week.Thursday morning I sat at my monitor overlooking the large red Q by Walter’s name and perused my league’s list of free agent receivers. Hank Baskett stared back at me, along with the likes of Ike Hilliard and Antonio Bryant. I went to pick up Baskett, but then cancelled the move.That’s when I decided, “Screw it; I’m picking up Josh Morgan.”Josh Morgan, deep sleeper. So deep that ESPN’s projection is blank. They can’t even slap him with one catch for 12 yards.Why roll the dice with Josh Morgan?Because when the preseason started he was the 49ers' best receiver, and O’Sullivan’s favorite. He came down with a mysterious illness that caused him to lose 15 pounds and miss the last two preseason games. By week one, Bryant Johnson was over his hamstring injury and took Morgan’s place in the starting lineup.This week Morgan has been telling reporters that he’s finally starting to gain back weight. He’s starting to get his strength back. This isn’t a case of Salma Hayek going on a crash diet before the Oscars. This is a pro athlete who was looking like a legitimate breakout candidate but became so ill that he practically fell off the face of the earth for the past five weeks.

Now, with his weight rising, Bryant Johnson is a game time decision. He is suffering the same hamstring problem that plagued him throughout the preseason, and they’re playing the Saints this week.

He may not even get the start but Johnson is a game time decision with a bad hamstring, and even if he does start, he might not finish. Morgan has the talent to keep him on the bench for the rest of the season.

He's not a sure thing by any means, but what the hell?
Don't start him unless you're ready to gamble, but if you have the roster space to stash him, stash him.

Here are two more I’d keep an eye on:

Rudi Johnson

He’s on the bye this week, but he looked rejuvenated against the 49ers last week. On top of which, he caught more passes than I’ve seen him catch in his entire career, and looked good doing it. Definitely worth a flier if you’re in search of RB depth.

Trent Edwards

Look at his stats. Then take a look at his schedule.

NFL Preview Number 2: The NFC

Rob Ohlstrom — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 04:23:49 -0400

Yesterday, I previewed the AFC. You can find that here.

20 years ago, the NFC was in the midst of a dominating run, which saw the conference win 13 straight Super Bowls.

The streak was broken in 1997, from which point the AFC ripped off eight of the next 10, before the Patriots, coming in as overwhelming favorites, lost to the Giants, who came out of nowhere and, to the delight of many, toppled what had appeared to be one of the greatest teams of all time.

Football is a brutal sport, and as a result, the playoffs aren’t decided in seven-game series, where the better team can be expected to prevail.

It’s single elimination, and one bad game, one improbable series of last-second laterals, missed sacks, or one football wedged between a hand a helmet, can be the difference between immortality and a footnote.

The NFC was able to win, after spending more than a decade as the AFC’s weak sister. Will the conference build on that, or will 2008 be another example of one conference’s dominance over the other?

NFC EAST

Washington 7.5 W, O (-140) U (+110) Proj. 8-8

Jason Campbell is that guy that was anointed as popular back in grade school and carries that all the way up through graduation, even though he’s really done nothing to deserve it.

Ask anyone and they all say the same thing: “I like Jason Campbell.” “I think he’s going to emerge as a good pro someday.” I say the same things myself.

Next thing you know, he’s tossing a game-killing interception and the week after he gets injured, some 36-year old I’ve never heard of is leading his team on a four-game winning streak and into the playoffs.

New York OFF Proj. 9-7

The dreaded “Off board”

DAMMIT!

*Composes self*

If there’s one disappointing development that the Giant’s Super Bowl win has brought to light it’s the evolution of the average fan. After the playoff run, I thought Manning would slip himself into the top 10 and people, as a whole, would over value the Giants. But other than Giants fans, nobody is falling for it. Poor Eli isn’t even a consensus draft pick in 10-team leagues.

(Tonight, take the points, but the Giants win a close one.)

Philadelphia 8.5 W, O (-180) U (+120) Proj. 11-5

Have you seen Quintin “George” Mikell hit? He’s fantastic, the anti-Dawkins if you will. While we’re on the subject of Brian Dawkins, isn’t it time we drop the charade that he’s an elite player?

I’ve got two enduring memories of him over the last few years: Jeff Garcia bowling over him for a game-tying touchdown four years ago, and Santonio Holmes making him look so bad this preseason that Bob Pompeani openly changed his opinion of Dawkins from one of the best safeties in the game to someone who’s showing that “13-year slow.”

Dallas 10.5 W, O (-150) U (+120) Proj. 12-4

I’m still convinced that Nick had Romo on his fantasy team, and Jessica, as one final “screw you”, started dating him. When Nick didn’t seem to care, she showed up to the Philly game in order to knock him out of the playoffs.

What’s that you say?

Why is she still dating him?

Do You Know ain’t going to sell itself...

(It’s out next Monday.)

NFC NORTH

Chicago 7.5 W, O (+115) U (-145) Proj. 5-11

Of all the transplanted fans who moved out to California and descend upon 5th Street (the bar I used to go to back when I had a life), the Chicago fans have to be my favorites: Same place at the bar, they’re always in jerseys, (Urlacher or Payton), they embrace any and all other Bears fans, and they raise hell during every play. So if I were to wish a winning season on anyone, it would be them.

Unfortunately, their defense isn’t what it used to be, Urlacher’s no longer a great player, and Kyle Orton is backed up by Rex Grossman.

5-11.

Detroit 6.5 W, O (-120) U (even) Proj. 6-10

They lost the maniac Mike Martz, and with a little luck, they will come to the conclusion that Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson are better receivers than Mike Furrey and Shaun MacDonald.

If they follow this line to its logical end, I expect them to come to the inevitable conclusion that it’s advantageous to get the ball to their better players.

This is similar to when the Cowboys came to the slow realization that Marion Barber was a far superior player to Julius Jones and adjusted their offense accordingly.

Long shot: Receiving Yardage leader for the season: Calvin Johnson, 60-1

Minnesota 8.5 W, O (-190) U (+155) Proj. 9-7

Don’t get roped in by their closing record, or the fact that Tarvaris Jackson threw 65 percent over the last five games. Those trends rarely carry over. They still have questions regarding their pass defense, and their best player has durability issues.

That aside, Tarvaris Jackson isn’t going to win any games that the defense and the running games aren’t going to win themselves. A team can make the playoffs that way, sure, but they’re not ripping off a 13-3 record and running away with the division unless they get extremely lucky (re: 2006 Ravens).

Green Bay 8.5 W, O (-115) U (-115) Proj. 11-5

As long as Aaron Rodgers isn’t horrible, they’ll win the division...well, that and if their corners don’t break down.

Listen:

I believe in Aaron Rodgers. I believe that my team, the 49ers, should have drafted Aaron Rodgers over Alex Smith, and I believed in Aaron Rodgers when No. 4 did his diva thing and held ESPN (and B/R for that matter) hostage for two months.

I hate Bret Favre.

NFC SOUTH

A wild division that crowns a new champion every year, and guess what.

Atlanta 4.5 W, O (-130) U (even) Proj. 4-12

It’s not the Falcons turn.

Tampa Bay 8 W, O (-140) U (+110) Proj. 9-7

Originally, I had them pegged to win the division by edging out Carolina and New Orleans, but the more I thought on last year’s team, I couldn’t shake the thought that they’ll get hurt, and one way or another, it’ll be just enough to keep them out of the playoffs.

New Orleans 8.5 O(-190) U(+155) Proj. 9-7

New Orleans, sorry about the 2007 Saints. *sniff* Everyone loved them. But they were fatally flawed, and their coach probably belongs on Broadway...you’ll get 'em in 2008...

But how is this a different team then last year? Their defense is still full of holes, (albeit only on the line, amidst the backers, and in the secondary), the running game is still miserable, and they don’t have a solid No. 2 receiver.

I mean, basically, you have Drew Brees, Marques Colston, a running back who’s renown for catching five-yard passes and two disgruntled guys from New York who may never have been as good as they were billed to be in the first place.

(Sean Payton can throw a hell of a mock funeral for a winning season, though.)

Carolina 7.5 W, O (-180) U (+150) Proj. 11-5

Delhomme looks good, Steve Smith seems as psychotic as ever, and Julius Peppers looks ready to play for his new contract. Add to that the running of Williams and Stewart, and what you get is a very intriguing team in a wide-open division.

You want a long shot?

Super Bowl Champs: 40-1

NFC WEST

San Francisco 6 W, O (-160) U (+130) Proj. 4-12

Can’t bet against your own team. Which is too bad, because I’d be retired by know if I had been betting against the 'Niners since the Dennis Erickson era seamlessly transitioned into what we have today. Bad for me, but good for you.

St. Louis Rams 6.5 W, O (even) U (-120) Proj. 5-11

I can, however, bet against the Rams.

Interesting long-shot here. Steven Jackson to win the MVP is going off at 60-1. Now, because of the division, it’s not too much of a stretch to see the Ram’s overcoming the fact that they’re horrible and winning somewhere in the vicinity of 10 games, which would take the West.

If this happened, Jackson would almost certainly have to have a monster season, and wouldn’t that put him right in the running?

Seattle 8.5 W, O (-190) U (+155) Proj. 8-8

They can’t run, and Nate Burleson is their No. 1 wide receiver.

(There’s a reason why I almost had an orgasm when my fantasy league’s 07 champ drafted Burleson last weekend.)

Arizona 8 W, O (even) U (+155) Proj. 9-7

Last season, they were two, fluke 49ers losses away from 10-6. Their offensive line will be intact for consecutive years for the first time since 1972. Kurt Warner’s ready for one last hurrah, and Tim Hightower is coming out.

This is a team that’s been held back by their offensive line and quarterback for the past three years, and this is the year they finally get over the hump.

Seeds

NFC AFC

1)Dallas 1)New England

2)GB 2)Houston

3)Carolina 3)San Diego

4)Arizona 4)Pittsburgh

5) Philadelphia 5) Jacksonville

6) Minnesota 6) Indianapolis

Wild Card weekend

Carolina over Minn; Phi over Ari; Indy over SD; Pitt over Jack.

Divisional

Dallas over Philly; GB over Car; Indy over Hou; NE over Pitt.

Conference Finals

GB over Dal; NE over Indy.

Super Bowl

New England, by a sight.

NFL Preview Part One: The AFC

Rob Ohlstrom — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 20:36:26 -0400

You can find the NFC here.

One of my favorite rituals while waiting for the season to start is predicting the win-loss records for each team and applying them to futures bets I never make.

Why do I spend so much time researching bets I don’t bother playing? I like to think it pays off later in the season. Besides, it’s always fun to nail something like your 2007 NFC West Champion, the St. Louis Rams.

There are many reasons I rarely play win futures. For starters, as you’re about to read, it’s not as simple as, “The Pats are 12, so I’ll take the over!”

The reality is that the bet is: Pats 12 wins Over (-145), which means you’re paying $145 to win $100.

And that sucks.

You’re also waiting a whole four months before you lose your bet, and what fun is that? You could be using that money to lay bets on Sunday morning, of which you can find that you’ve lost your money by Sunday afternoon. So why wait?

To be honest though, if I had a big enough bankroll to throw down a $1,000 on the handful win futures that are worth it I’d do it. Of course, there’re pesky things like college funds, retirement, and reality that get in the way of that.

I’ll preview the AFC today, and get to the NFC tomorrow.

AFC WEST

Kansas City 5.5 W, O (-120) U (even) Proj. 4-12

There’s not a lot to like here. Tony G. and Dwayne Bowe...that’s about it. What else is there? Larry Johnson is running behind what looks like the worst line in football, my uncle Ricky’s semipro team has already agreed to terms with Croyle’s agent when he gets cut, (I advised him against it, but he never listens to me), and their best defensive player was traded to the Vikings...they’re rebuilding.

Oakland 6 W, O (-145) U (+115) Proj. 5-11

The over/under is six, and Vegas wants you to take the under. I like the under, so who’s wrong? Well, we know the Raiders can run, they’ve got a decent defense, and they play in a weak division. So how do I justify five wins?

Buffalo, San Diego (twice), Saints, Jets, Panthers, Pats, Texans, and Bucs. They’ll probably split with KC, get one with Denver, if they’re lucky, and the only other teams that aren’t substantially better on their schedule are Miami, Baltimore, and Atlanta.

Darren McFadden is going off at 50-1 to win the rushing title. They can run, and Fargas has never been the healthiest guy.

Denver 7.5 W, O (-180) U (+150) Proj. 7-9

Yet another where I disagree with the experts. For starters, Selvin Young is talking about 2,000 yards, so if you drafted him, my condolences. The defensive line hasn’t been improved, and I don’t think the addition of Niko Koutouvides and Boss Bailey are going to help a hell of a lot.

What we’re left with is a middle-of-the-road offense and a defense that’s not very good after Champ Bailey. Seven wins might be too much.

San Diego 10.5 W, O (-210) U (+170) Proj. 10-6

With a healthy Merriman, I’d pencil them in for 13-3. Without him, 9-7 seems more appropriate. It looks like he’s going to play, but he won’t be the same player. Four wins is quite a big swing, but without Merriman, the Chargers will struggle to pressure the quarterback, and the best defense in the league suddenly becomes pedestrian.

So let’s go 10-6. They should still win the division.

AFC EAST

Miami 5.5 W, O (even) U (-130) Proj. 4-12

Do you think Parcells is respected? Even with the improvements to the rest of the division, the line is at 5.5, which looks like easy money until reality (-130) sets in.

Buffalo 7.5 W, O (-160) U (+130) Proj. 9-7

It gets cold in Buffalo. So cold they can’t sell out December home games and will play a home game in Toronto this year. They end the season with (Home in caps) SF, MIA, Nyj, Den, and a very winnable home game against the Pats in Week 17. That stretch has 3-2 or maybe even 4-1 written all over it.

New York 8 W, O (-160) U (+130) Proj. 9-7

I think the difference between New York and Buffalo is going to be Week 15 at home. The winner might get to flip a coin with the third place team in the South for the final playoff birth.

The Jets open the season with a gimmie against Miami before playing New England and San Diego back-to-back. They then come home and play Arizona before the bye. If Arizona can come into New York and leave the Jets at 1-3, the media may turn on golden boy, and if that happens, all bets are off.

New England 12 W, O (-145) U (+115) Proj. 15-1

The book doesn’t want any action on the Patriots. 12 wins is absurdly low, unless Brady isn’t ready to play. As a result, the book makes it unprofitable to bet the over, and the under doesn’t pay anywhere close to how much it should.

For the second-straight year, the Pats have one of the easiest schedules in football, and this year, would you bet they don’t come in motivated to rectify 18-1?

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh 9 W, O (even) U (-130) Proj. 8-8

Before you cry foul Steeler fans, look at the under.

I see one more season on the top, sort of how Seattle holds down the NFC West. We know the D isn’t as good, the line gives up too many hits on the quarterback, and Vegas does not want you to take the under.

Now this is what I think: I think their schedule is brutal and they won’t have one game where they’re an overwhelming favorite. I think the AFC North winner will have a 4-2 record within the division, and the worst team (Cinci) will go 2-4.

I think the Steelers beat the Browns twice, the Browns sweep the Bengals, and the Ravens split with everyone.

I think Pittsburgh wins eight games this year and finishes substantially better than their record.

Cleveland 8 W, O (-115) U (-115) Proj. 7-9

Some red flags with this team:

-Peter King raved about the cafeteria during the first week of camp but ended the preseason with the impression that the team lacks a sense of urgency. Convincing Peter King that you’re playing with urgency is like when your grandmother corners you and starts talking about Jesus. It doesn’t take much to please her.

-Everyone is rooting for them.

-Their starting quarterback suffered a concussion (never a good sign).

-The defense struggled against the run and the pass last year, and as a result, they traded their best defensive playing for an inconsistent defensive tackle from Detroit whose never played nose tackle before.

-If C.C. Sabathia is any indication, Cleveland is on a losing streak.

Most Passing Yards: Derek Anderson (25-1)

Baltimore 6 W, O (-120) U (even) Proj. 7-9

If Flacco (or later Smith, after he gets benched) can come in and manage the game, and McGahee and Rice can run effectively, the defense will bounce back after a disappointing season and they will take the division.

(Flacco and Smith won’t be able to do that.)

Cincinnati 7 W, O (-145) U (+115) Proj. 5-11

Quick, pile on the under!

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee 8 W, O (+110) U (-140) Proj. 8-8

A couple of years ago, I was watching the Rose Bowl, and this quarterback with the worst throwing motion I ever saw marched down the field to topple USC, and I remember thinking to myself, "How’d he make it that far without knowing how to throw?"

Sometimes I wonder what happened to that guy.

(An unrelated aside: Does anyone else think Dave Navarro is looking like Michael Jackson? Watching the Gong Show while I’m finishing this up...never seen it before...where’s the remote?)

Indianapolis 11 W, O (-105) U (-125) Proj. 9-7

This is the first season in years where Indy’s no longer a lock for the playoffs. They come into the season with a lot of unanswered questions:

-Is Manning 100%?

-Do they have the depth to replace Jeff Saturday?

-Where are Freeney and Harrison, are they still effective?

-Can Bob Sanders stay healthy?

The loss of Saturday is bigger than anyone seems to realize. Offensive line is crucial to the success of the offense, and the center is the leader of the line.

Peyton has the same problem with his knee that Harrison had last year...the early word was that he recovered from the same injury in college and recovered to play in a bowl game a month later. Now he’s 32. There’s a big difference between the recovery time of a guy in his early 30s, and a guy in his early 20s.

Jacksonville 10 W, O (-110) U (even) Proj. 9-7

Jacksonville has spent the last two seasons as an elite team. They come into the season as a popular Super Bowl pick, but they worry me. Their defense fell off a bit last year, and we won’t know if their defense is back until the season starts.

The offense succeeded last year because they ran the ball well, and Garrard played out of his mind. Expect them to keep running well, but it’s not realistic to expect him to throw six TDs for every interception this year.

He’s coming back to earth. He’s still going to be a good QB, I still see them making the playoffs, but I just won’t be making any reservations come February.

Houston 7.5 W, O (-145) U (+115) Proj. 11-5

The Colts don’t appear healthy and can’t seem to stay that way. Jacksonville will turn the ball over this season, and they both have brutal schedules. Houston has a tough schedule as well, but it’s a little softer.

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson lit the world on fire before they went down with their respective injuries. Mario Williams looks like he might be the best defensive end in football, and he’s surrounded by a young, talented defense that looks ready to take the next step forward.

Why not?

San Francisco Giants' Top-Six Players To Embrace for the '09 Season

Rob Ohlstrom — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 09:21:02 -0400

It’s been a year of futility. The departure of Barry Bonds has come as a mixed blessing. On one hand, the rebuilding effort that should have started three years ago is finally underway.

On the other hand, the team is dead last in the majors in team home runs with 80. Kansas City is locked into 29th place with a whopping 96.

We're 136 games into the season and free-agent acquisition Aaron Rowand leads the team with 13 home runs. Remember when Barry was knocking a ball out of the park every 10 at bats?

Rowand goes yard once every 10 games. He averages a home run every 35.8 ABs, which tops the position players still with the club.

Matt Cain’s number?

26.5.

Rowand’s currently on pace for 16 HR. That would be the lowest total by a Giants' team leader since George "Highpockets" Kelley hit 11 back in 1920.

For any of you still holding on to the delusion that Sabean might be able to lure a big free-agent bat, forget it. The only sluggers making their home in San Francisco either play for the A’s, or they’re coming from Fresno.

Of course, all is not lost. Despite the fact that my neighbor’s four-year old thinks a home run is something that happens only when Tyler Walker runs in from the bullpen, there has been reason for optimism, and I haven’t enjoyed a Giant’s season this much since '04, when Matt Herges and Cody Ransom stood between the team and a playoff run...but I digress.

So I’ll stop babbling, and start, from top to bottom, with the players that make me excited for next year.

#55 Tim Lincecum

During the winter, rumors were circulating that Brian Sabean was looking to move him for Alex Rios (.291/10/60), yet somehow was able to pull himself out of the five-year manic episode that started during the playoff run of '02 (the ousting of Dusty Baker) and included both the Zito signing (which the press wants to blame on ownership, but Sabes could’ve easily resigned) and the infamous Nathan/Liriano/Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski trade.

(How much did I love Pierzynski? If I woke up tomorrow and read that he died of an overdose, I’d probably have a good chuckle...you think I’m kidding. If Sunday afternoon cinema has taught me anything, it’s that human life is cheap, and A.J. Pierzynski is the throw in with your purchase of the Awesome Auger.)

A year ago, I couldn’t sit through a game unless Lincecum was pitching. He was up and down, struggled at times, could only throw two different pitches, but he was always worth watching. If Sabean would’ve moved Lincecum over the winter, I wouldn’t be a Giant’s fan.

This year, he’s the best pitcher in baseball, he added a change up, he’s 24, and I don’t think he’s in his prime yet.

He’s special, and everyone in the Bay knows it.

#48 Pablo Sandoval

I’ve seen him play four times, and I already know he can hit on the major-league level. Thursday night, he hit back-to-back home runs with Molina, and after the game, they were interviewed as a pair (Big Money and Little Money).

I couldn’t understand a thing he said, and neither could inept sideline reporter Amy G, who promptly dismissed him so she could interview Molina.

#18 Matt Cain

A few years ago, I watched him come within four outs of no-hitting the Angels. He’s had multiple starts where he’s taken a no-hitter past the fifth inning, but hasn’t put it together yet.

Word is that he’s struggled to keep up with Lincecum, and that’s hurt his development. On top of which, to use the old cliché, he looks like he’s throwing, and that he hasn’t learned to pitch yet. So he’s got that going for him, which is nice.

Unfortunately, he’s going to be shopping for a new contract in three years, and the Giant’s won’t have the money to sign him because the white elephant will still have two years and roughly $40 million left on his contract. Remember that when he’s pitching for the Dodgers in 2012.

#38 Brian Wilson

Critics point to his ERA of 4.00. I point to his 36 saves in 39 opportunities and the fact that Bochy is starting to bring him for those tough, four and five-out saves in the eighth. Just don’t give him a four-run lead to work with.

#33 Aaron Rowand

When the Giant’s PR department tailored their marketing of the '08 campaign around the concept of the “gamer,” a mythical, antipode to Barry Bonds, who substitutes things like talent for hard work, home runs for singles, W’s for L’s, this must have been inspired by Aaron Rowand, a throwback widely considered the toughest player in the league.

Great in the field, hits for average, hustles, plays hurt, and is far and away the guy you want at the plate with a runner on second and two outs. You may not win a World Series with Rowand in your five hole, but you can win if he’s your center fielder batting sixth.

#14 Fred Lewis

Every time Lewis refuses to shorten his strike zone with two outs and gets sent to the bench after a called strike three, Duane Kuiper pulls a tuft of hair from his scalp. I’m sure of it.

Lewis has been a pleasant surprise. He was given an opportunity to play everyday when Dave Roberts went down, (what a stroke of luck that was) and has hit .283 with 80 runs with an OBP of .353 and he’s stolen 21 bases.

The downsides to Lewis are his aforementioned strikeouts (120, eighth in the NL), and he’s inconsistent in the field. But all in all, he’s a talented player that should be a staple in left for years to come.

Now, if the Giants can find two or three hitters to fill out the heart of the order...maybe next year.

A couple of parting shots

MLB needs to overturn that base hit. Not only has Sabathia been cheated out of history, but we, as fans, have been cheated from watching Sabathia jump into the arms of catcher Jason Kendall, whom Sabathia outweighs by 86 pounds.

Speaking of Sabathia, he’s not going to win the Cy Young, but what about the MVP?

Are federal prosecutors really going after Greg Anderson’s wife and mother-in-law? This isn’t Al Capone we’re talking about here; it’s Barry Bonds, a baseball player.

While you’re going after the wife of a personal trainer that MAY have supplied a baseball player with steroids, why don’t you investigate the last two presidential elections, which have actual proof that laws were broken and the constitution was violated?

Could we get a federal prosecutor to investigate that, or is the integrity of the constitution less important then the sanctity of the home-run record?

J.T. O'Sullivan Isn't Going To Save the San Francisco 49ers (Or Mike Nolan)

Rob Ohlstrom — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 05:02:33 -0400

I don’t know where to start.

So I’ll start here.

This is what we know.

J.T. O’Sullivan was named the starter for last night’s game against the Bears and will be the starting quarterback during the regular season. (No, it hasn’t been announced yet.)

O’Sullivan was the Detroit Lion’s third-string quarterback last year.

Mike Nolan is coaching for his job.

Mike Martz is going to stab Nolan in the back in the hope that Nolan is fired so that he can take over next year.

(Whoops, I don’t know that. Nor have I ever heard anything to ever suggest that. That’s crazy talk!)

Mike Nolan has made a mistake. By starting J.T. O’Sullivan the first three games of the preseason, he has assured us that neither Alex Smith nor Shaun Hill would win the job. O’Sullivan played well last night (so did Smith, despite Joe Buck openly campaigning against him), and he looks like a starter. By all accounts, he’s outplayed Smith, so the decision to start him would not be not far off, on the surface.

The problem is that, although O’Sullivan may be the best option right now, that doesn’t mean he’ll be the best option by Week Five, or down the stretch. I don’t think O’Sullivan can lead a team to the playoffs, and if the 49ers can’t make the playoffs, Nolan is going to lose his job.

They are not a playoff team currently, and in order to become one, a number of things need to fall in place:

The defense needs a pass rush.

The offensive line needs to improve over last year.

Vernon Davis needs to become consistent.

Josh Morgan (or Bryant Johnson, or Jason Hill) needs to play well enough to be considered a legitimate NFL starting receiver.

The quarterback needs to be better then J.T. O’Sullivan...

Mike Nolan is going to lose his job. Seven or eight wins will not save him. Mike Holmgren is coming home, and Nolan needs a playoff birth to keep him out.

O’Sullivan is not leading the team to the playoffs.

Shaun Hill is out of the picture.

That leaves Alex Smith.

It’s fitting. When Nolan drafted him No. 1, he anointed Smith as the future of the franchise. It hasn’t worked out that well.

We all know the excuses as to why he hasn’t produced.

But if he doesn’t make it this year, he won’t be a 49er next year. He looks like a bust, but with quarterbacks, it’s hard to know. The 49ers picked up Patriot bust Jim Plunkett back in the '70s. He wasn’t any good. A few years later, he won two Super Bowls with the Raiders. In the '80s they picked up Tampa Bay bust Steve Young. Nobody really remembers Young as a bust anymore, do they?

My point is that you never really know with quarterbacks. Although I don’t think Smith is the answer, I know he can’t be written off just yet.

J.T. O’Sullivan isn’t the answer for any pro team playing outside of Canada.

Alex Smith probably isn’t either, but if Smith plays, the franchise will know where they stand with him.

Fantasy Footballs' Top-50 Rankings for PPR Leagues, Part Two

Rob Ohlstrom — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 04:26:07 -0400

Let’s get to it. If you missed Part One, you can find it here.

22) Chad Johnson

In three of the last four years, he’s put up better numbers in the last half of the season, and in the season he didn’t, both halves were pretty even. Last season, he finished just behind Housh and outscored him in the second half of the season.

Hopefully the offseason drama brings out the best in him.

23) T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Good:

He catches a lot of passes.

Carson Palmer likes him better then Ocho Cinco.

First eight games: 62 REC, 674 YDS, 10 TD

Bad:

Final eight games: 50 REC, 469 YDS, 2 TD

24) Marshawn Lynch

Other than Kimberly Shpeley (the woman he ran over and left for dead), everyone likes him more then I do. He’s talented, but he only caught 18 passes last year, missed three games, and plays in an offense where defenses will key on him. And he has questions at the quarterback.

You’ll see me laying down $12 to see Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 before I buy tickets for Trent Edwards: Starting NFL Quarterback.

Anytime a player has a history of hitting people with his car, that’s a big red flag, according to my draft manifesto.

(He referred to her as the “dancing woman crossing the street” and says he slowed down to let her pass, but didn’t realize he hit her. I’d think a driver who was fit would notice if he struck a dancing woman in the middle of the street. I’ve never hit anyone without knowing it. Certainly not outside of a crowded club...where everyone knew who I was...not that I recall, anyway.)

25) Wes Welker

He was awesome last year. I don’t think he catches 112 passes again. Gaffney takes some away, but pencil him in for 90-1,000-8.

26) Drew Brees

If I don’t have a QB by the time Brees is taken, I’m going for two out of the Bulger/Schaub/Garrard trio about 50 picks from now.

27) Willis McGahee

I hate drafting RBs on offensively-challenged teams.

28) Jamal Lewis

I refused to draft him the past two seasons. His offensive line is one of the best in football, their passing offense looks strong, and I bet you can’t name his backup, so they really have to give him the ball.

On top of that, late in the season it becomes difficult to pass in the AFC North, so he should be at his best when it matters most. (He was a monster down the stretch.)

29) Earnest Graham

The forgotten man of the draft. He caught 49 passes last year. He only missed one game (to rest before the playoffs), yet he had double-digit carries in just 10 games. He scored 10 touchdowns and five of those were from inside the five, which tells me his 10 scores were no fluke.

I don’t advocate taking him here. In most drafts, he’ll go 10 picks later. Graham is the guy I’m looking for when I need a RB2 in the fourth and early fifth.

Don’t worry about a time-share, his three backfield rivals are all coming into the season battling career-threatening injuries: Williams with his patellar tendon, Bennett with his heart, and Dunn with that severe back injury (from being repeatedly stabbed by a fork).

30) Reggie Bush

I’ve seen him ranked in this vicinity in standard leagues, and that’s just crazy. His value comes from the fact that he’s going to catch five passes every week. He hasn’t shown that he can run or handle the workload of an every down back.

(Or outrun NFL linebackers. Hey, there’s no Fresno State in the NFL.)

If the stars align, I can see 150-175 carries for 500-700, 75-90 receptions for 650-800, 10-12 TDs.

31)

Shhhh...this shoulda been Brandon Marshall’s spot. (Bows head)

32) Torry Holt

92 receptions each of the last two years.

33) Anquan Boldin

Pray for a keg-stand-related injury somewhere in Glendale this year...

Always underrated.

34) Plaxico Burress

Like Plax, hate Eli. This is one of those picks that kills people who don’t draft well and works out for those who do. (If that makes any sense.)

35) Steve Smith

He’s missing the first two games of the season. So if you think you can survive with him riding your bench for the first two games, pick him up.

36) Brandon Marshall

This is painful even to write about. I was going to steal him in the fourth or fifth round and cruise to the title. Now, I just don’t know. I should’ve realized something was wrong when he asked me to take out a life insurance policy.

(That was for those of us whose wife’s watch too much A&E.)

37) Santonio Holmes

This is the year. This is where you have to pick him to get him.

38) Willie Parker

If Mendenhall couldn’t unseat Pierre Thomas, I don’t see him taking Parker’s job. I don’t see Parker scoring just two touchdowns again, either.

39) Brandon Jacobs

When he was healthy, he was pretty good. He doesn’t catch passes, and he has two pretty good backs breathing down his neck.

40) Ben Roethlisberger

It’s nice to not have to worry about your QB. So if I broke down and took a QB here, it would be Roethlisberger. I like him better then Palmer and Anderson.

41) Roy Williams

Is this guy ever going to reach his potential? He’s like a lotto ticket that has yet to cash in.

42) Roddy White

Another underrated guy. The problem with his situation (Much like Roy Williams and the rest of the field from here on out) is that you can’t count on a whole lot of consistency. (It has nothing to do with him.) If you follow the line from the first pick in a 10-team draft you’d get:

RB1: L.T.

RB2: Johnson

WR1: Colston

WR2: Williams

WR3: White

And that’s not bad.

43) Greg Jennings

I’ll admit that this seems high for him, but it’s only due to his low number of receptions last year, (53) and the fact that Aaron Rodgers is the great unknown behind the center. So I will tell you that Jennings is the most talented receiver left, other than maybe Calvin Johnson, that he’s the best receiver the Packers have, and Rodgers will look to him more than Favre did. He also missed three games last year.

44) Laurence Maroney

Belichick is getting dangerously close to Mike Shanahan territory. Sammy Morris is back, and LaMont Jordan was brought in. This pick is a huge gamble. He could finish the year as a top-10 back, or he could spend half the season on your bench. There’s no way to know. Let someone else roll the dice in the third or fourth.

45) Darren McFadden

It’s time to roll the dice.

(Seriously, if he’s still on the board, now’s the time. Bush is going to get buried, and do you really trust Fargas to live up to last year? I don’t.)

46 & 47) Laveranues Coles & Jerricho Cotchery

Reason No. 263 why I hate Bret Favre: Two solid, underrated WRs that I was able to pick up in later rounds are now going to be bumped up to a spot where I can’t get them.

Thanks Brett.

48) Jason Witten

Romo likes to give him the ball. I don’t advocate taking a TE this early, but he’s the guy to get. If he falls far enough that you can stomach taking him, do so.

49) Carson Palmer

Bounce back year.

50) Calvin Johnson

Forget the three-year myth. It’s two years. Time to live up to the hype.

(Just clear the word Kitna from your mind.)

51) Anthony Gonzalez/Marvin Harrison

I know, this is a cop-out, but I just found out that Bobby Engram is going to miss the first three games of the regular season (I had him at 48, which is really 47), so I’m putting Gonzalez here.

If Harrison looks good, he takes the spot. Even if Harrison is ok, Gonzalez should still be worth a shot, even though he’s the Colts' fourth receiver.

(Wayne, Harrison, Clark, then Gonzalez)

Fantasy Football's Top-50 Rankings for PPR Leagues, Part One

Rob Ohlstrom — Sun, 10 Aug 2008 22:10:12 -0400

Point per reception is a different animal. On its surface, it looks deceptively simple. Guys get a point for each catch. The value of guys who catch the most balls goes up. This is true whether it’s a wide receiver like Derrick Mason (104 receptions last year) or a running back like Reggie Bush (73 receptions).

It also goes the other way. Guys like Greg Jennings (53 receptions) and Marshawn Lynch (18 receptions) see their value drop. A guy like Michael Turner, perhaps a borderline top-30 pick in a standard league, doesn’t make this list and may even end up being outscored by Jerious Norwood.

Conventional wisdom gets thrown to the side, but by how far?

You’re probably starting four wide receivers instead of two.

It’s no longer an advantage to have a running back in the flex.

If you play a flex, you want three good running backs instead of four. You can stick your third running back in on bye weeks and in the flex when you don’t have a better option with your receivers.

If you’re playing in a league where you’re likely to start four receivers (2 RB, 1 RB/WR, 3 WR) you need to stockpile quality wideouts, but that doesn’t mean you should pass up a RB who’s head and shoulders the best player left on the board because you can’t play him. (You can always trade good RBs.)

Alright.

Here’s my list of the top 50 for those in a PPR. This isn’t where I think a player will go, but where I think they stack up relative to others. Certain players (Earnest Graham, for one) are ranked higher than where I think they’ll go, (and where you should draft them), and others (Maroney) are ranked lower.

The first 21 you’re about to read, and the rest shall come tomorrow.

1) LaDainian Tomlinson

Duh.

However, he’s 29-years old and he’s got more mileage on him than Indiana Jones. His final stats were great last year, but week to week, he was a little inconsistent. He’s one of the greatest backs ever and probably has two or three seasons left as a top pick, but from here on out, he could break down.

I’ve never owned him, and suffice to say, I don’t want the first pick this year. (And if you took Westbrook here, I salute you.)

At some point, aren’t kids just going to refuse to play running back? Would you let your kid play running back? Isn’t wide receiver the way to go? Shouldn’t Jim Brown be telling L.T. that he needs to hang it up before he’s crippled?

Do we really need Rick Reilly traveling to El Paso 20 years from now and doing a piece on how L.T. spends most of his time telling football stories in the barber shop and riding around town in his rascal?

2) Brian Westbrook

Outscored L.T. in PPR last year, and if he were two years younger, I’d take him first (and I still might). Sitting down on the one last year in the Dallas game might’ve been the smartest play I’ve ever seen. McNabb should be fully recovered, which means the offense should be better, and, in turn, he may even be better.

3) Steven Jackson

Scott Linehan has to be on the hot seat. Jackson caught 90 passes two years ago. So he should get more touches than anyone in football. You know what else? Jackson knows this because he’s holding out.

He’s worried that Linehan is going to run him into the ground this year. He should be this year’s top-scoring running back. Though, his line, coach, and holdout are all red flags.

4) Tom Brady

I’m having a really hard time putting him here, but I keep coming back to this spot. If this were a standard league, and RBs were more valuable, I’d drop him behind Peterson and Addai.

I just don’t think Addai is going to get many more touches than last year. Peterson will, but he doesn’t catch a lot of passes, and he’s inconsistent as all hell.

By taking Brady with the fourth pick, you know you’re going to have the best QB every week (maybe Manning or Romo will be in the ballpark). He’s not throwing 50 touchdowns again, but he’s a safe bet for 35 (13 for Moss, seven for Welker, six for Gaffney, and nine for the field) and will probably throw 40 (17 for Moss, eight for Welker…).

Drafting Brady gives you the highest-scoring player in fantasy and also brings the bonus of not having to draft a backup (Even though his bye is in Week Four, that’s usually long enough to figure out which of your late-round sleepers is definitely not panning out).

5) Randy Moss

In the end, I gave Brady the nod over Moss due to health, the fact that receiver is deeper than QB, and the fact that Brady doesn’t light up a joint every blue moon.

Moss is going to be the best WR in your league. He’s a difference maker. I’m not saying that the next two picks aren’t, it’s just that picking Moss and Grant, or Moss and Jones-Drew is going to get more points than taking Peterson and one of the Grant/Mojo/Manning-type players you can pick up in Round Two.

I know the draft is more than two rounds, but once you get into the third round, more and more guys have question marks. There’re plenty of quality guys that you can pluck from the free agent pool and will take a spot on your team (Grant, Anderson, and Watson, to name a few from last year).

None of those guys will give you an advantage like Moss does.

6) Adrian Peterson

I don’t need to talk about how great he is, so I’ll say this: Every defense that plays the Vikings will develop a game plan which revolves around stopping him. He’s inconsistent, Tarvaris Jackson, he has a history of injuries, and (this can't be stressed enough) Tarvaris Jackson.

Plus, if you pick him, you have to take Chester Taylor, which is fine if you’re in a league where you can take him in the eighth or ninth, but kind of sucks if you’re in a league where someone like me is going to make you use a sixth or seventh-round pick on him. I’m constantly flipping him and Addai.

7) Joe Addai

Last year was as good as he’s going to be. He’s not getting many more touches because the Colts don’t need to give him more touches on a consistent basis to win. So why risk his health by giving him the ball 20-25 times a game when most games you can give it to him 15-20 times and distribute those other touches to Rhodes and Keith in return for a small drop off in production?

8) Marion Barber

There is no reason not to like this guy. He plays for a high-powered offense behind a strong O-line for a talented coordinator. His specialty is running in the red zone. He catches passes, and he’s coming out of a time-share. I don’t buy the idea that he runs too hard to take more then 20 carries a game. I think that’s ridiculous.

The only worry I have here is that much like Addai and the Colts, they don’t need to give him the ball 25 times to win.

9) Clinton Portis

Last time he was drafted in the top 10, he missed half the season. There are always backs taken in the first round who breakdown and kill their teams. Some you can predict (Johnson, Alexander), and others you can’t (Jackson). I honestly can’t tell if I have reason to be worried, or if I’m being paranoid.

10) Frank Gore

These last three backs can really go in any order. I think Portis is the most reliable, (but I have a nagging feeling he gets hurt this year), Barber should be a solid No. 1 back, but Wade Phillips is the same man who once tabbed Rob Johnson as a franchise QB and just last year kept giving carries to Julius Jones when it was clear that Barber was a far better option.

Gore should catch the most passes, he’s the best player, and he has the most upside of the three. He also plays for the worst offense, QB, and offensive line.

Nobody really knows how Mike Martz is going to use him, although with Nolan’s head under the guillotine, you would think he would get at least 300 carries. But with Martz’s history of under utilizing the running game, and Nolan’s history of bringing knives to a gunfight, you just never know.

11) Reggie Wayne

I’ve had him in the majority of my leagues for the past two years, but I won’t be able to get him this year because everyone has caught on. Much like how I was able to consistently draft Andre Johnson as a reserve until last season.

I don’t think Harrison’s status affects him, btw.

12) Terrell Owens

It took five years, a suicide attempt, and owning Tony Romo, but I’ve finally forgiven him for screwing over the 49ers.

I remember his last season with the team fondly. Promptly after predicting he would get 2,000 yards, Aeneas Williams lit him up in Week Two, and he spent the rest of the year refusing to go up the middle and short-arming passes.

After playing like a dog all year and leading the team to a 7-9 record, he blamed everything on the rest of the team, especially Jeff Garcia, going so far as to insinuate that Garcia was gay.

A year later Garcia was in Cleveland, and his future wife (2004 Playmate of the year Carmella DeCesare) is getting in a bar fight with his ex.

(I believe that’s check, and mate, Mr. Owens.)

13) Braylon Edwards

When the Browns slog through their brutal schedule and devastate Cleveland with their six-win season, Edwards will be the only one who doesn’t fall off. If I was convinced the Browns aren’t going to be disappointments this year, I might put him ahead of Owens and Wayne. He’s that good. He should be higher.

14) Ryan Grant

He’s legit. He ran really well last year, he’s young, has a lot of tread left on his tires, the offense should revolve around him, and I believe in Aaron Rodgers. You should be able to pick him in the mid-second round in a 10-team league.

I’ve got a good feeling about him, the same feeling I had with Reggie Bush last year.

(Forget I just wrote that.)

(Refusing to acknowledge the huge elephant hanging over the Packers.)

15) Tony Romo

As long as Jessica Simpson isn’t watching, I’m on board

Listen, last year, I watched a lot of Cowboys and Colts games (I had Addai, Wayne, Barber, Romo, and Witten in one league), and Tony Romo was better then Manning. He’s also a lot of fun to own\watch, and this is from a 'Niners fan who HATES the Cowboys.

(How was I able to field a team with those five? Addai and Wayne were nabbed in the early rounds, I stole Barber in the fifth or sixth, traded for Romo, and took Witten in the 12th. Unfortunately, the Jessica Simpson game was in the first round of the playoffs.)

16) Peyton Manning

Let’s recap:

For the past three years the jackasses at the major networks took sides between him and Brady over whom was the greatest QB of their generation, and once Peyton was given the Super Bowl, EVERYONE decided he was better then Brady.

Until last year when EVERYONE decided that Brady was the best QB that ever played, while the Pats rolled over a schedule consisting of CFL and semi-pro teams, until he shat himself in the Super Bowl (Oh wait, he had one drive.)

As for Peyton, he’s got the weapons (even if Harrison doesn’t return to form), and Brady showed him up at his own game last year (running up the score by padding his stats against weak teams, then falling apart at the worst possible moment in the season, which went against his M.O. for his entire career up until that point), so he’s in line for a big season.

(I have to add this here, since he’s not making my list, but I’m watching an Eli interview right now, and he looks like Kramer in the Seinfeld episode with Mel Torme.)

(The one where Kramer’s mouth is numb from the dentist and Mel thinks he has muscular dystrophy.)

17) Larry Fitzgerald

Really, a toss up with Andre Johnson, but I know what I’m getting with Fitz.

18) Andre Johnson

Last year, he played with a guy who wasn’t David Carr for the first time in his career, and before he got hurt, he was on pace for 92 receptions for 1,676 yards and 16 TDs.

One other thing: I keep hearing that Johnson’s an injury risk, but I don’t buy it. Last year was his fifth season, and before last year, he missed three games in four years. Suddenly he’s a huge injury risk? Methinks the fantasy Sherpas are trying to steer us wrong.

19) Maurice Jones-Drew

He’s 5’7”. My mom is 5’7”. Have you seen the Madden commercial where he’s wearing the long shirt and looks like a bona fide midget?

Isn’t Mojo the buddy you ridicule because of his stature before he lowers his shoulder into your stomach and leaves you coughing for the next 20 minutes before you gather your wind and continue until he knocks you on your ass? (Later claiming that you were so drunk you didn’t know what was going on.) Don’t you want this guy on your team?

Last year, Fred Taylor ran 223 times, and Mojo took it 167. He also caught 40 passes. The year before, he caught 46 passes. In two seasons, he’s scored 26 TDs. He should get 200 carries this year. He’s going to catch 40 passes and score 10 times or more.

(All that, and he’s fun to own)

20) Marques Colston

1) Moss 2) Owens 3) Wayne 4) Edwards 5) Fitzgerald 6) Johnson 7) Colston

That seems low for him.

21) Larry Johnson

I know, I wrote in length (Towards the end) about how much I hate him this year, but even though he only averaged 3.5 YPC, if you double his stats (only played eight games last year), he would’ve been the sixth-highest scoring back last season. He was on pace for 316 carries and 60 receptions.

Of course, I’m not picking him. He’s no fun to own, and there’s a five-percent chance Herm Edwards gives him the ball a combined 500 times and he dies on the field during the playoffs.

You don’t need that.

Ryan Grant Is Right to Hold Out

Rob Ohlstrom — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 12:00:35 -0400

Ryan Grant needs to be paid. Pay him.

He's under contract.

To be a back up. He got promoted.

He should be loyal to the team.

The team will cut him when he breaks down. This is a business.

He should honor his contract and play it out. Then he will get his money.

Football plays hell on the body. I know high school players whose knees are tore up from playing linebacker for two years on varsity, or whose backs give out once a month because they played fullback for ten games their junior year. I know 35-year-old men that get out of chairs with the same aches and pains of men twice their age.

How many former NFL players are crippled? Johnny Unitas struggles to hold a coffee cup. Earl Campbell couldn't walk on his own by the time he was 40. The league chews players up and spits them out. On top of that, contracts aren't guaranteed, except for star players. Even then it's usually less than half. So if a guy getting paid the minimum gets hurt, what's he going to do?

Ryan Grant is a running back. The most destructive position in the world's most destructive sport. He has a small window. Five, maybe six or seven years to make as much as he can in the league before his body can't take it anymore.

If he's successful, the man will be waking up with aches, pains, or worse for the rest of his life. He shouldn't just do it so I can make a few hundred measly dollars playing fantasy, or some Packer fans can enjoy themselves while searching for hypothermia.

He should be paid. He should be paid well.

When It's Ok To Root for Your Team To Lose

Rob Ohlstrom — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 23:29:07 -0400

Sometimes, things get so bad that the only course of action is to blow it up and start again. In fact, that should be the title of the 49ers' 2008 NFL Yearbook: Time To Blow It Up and Start Again: The story of the 49ers and Mike Nolan.

I can’t take any joy in winning. Not when it could mean bringing Nolan back for another year.

I want him thrown out of the business!

It’s a hell of a thing to root against your own team, and I’m not talking about rooting for Barry Zito to pitch the anti-perfect season either. The 49ers are unbearable to watch.

I don’t enjoy watching football anymore.

Mike Nolan is the cause of that.

The fall of the 49ers began in the late '90s. By 1999, owner Eddie DeBartolo handed over his interest in the team to his sister and her husband, who turned arguably the most well-run and successful franchise of the past 20 years into the biggest laughing stock in the league just five years later.

On the field, the team was able to hold on under the stewardship of Steve Mariucci. When Steve Young was forced to retire during the '99 season, the team tanked and went 4-12 and then 6-10 (their worst records since 1982) before rebounding with consecutive playoff seasons.

The Yorks rewarded Mooch by giving him the axe after losing in the divisional playoffs after the '02 season, and he was replaced by Dennis Erickson, who steered the team right back into the basement, compiling a 9-23 record along the way.

After hitting rock bottom in 2004, with a record of 2-14, the franchise cleaned house, firing Erickson and GM Terry Donahue.

York brought in a new regime headed by former Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike Nolan.

Hell followed with him.

His tenure started off badly. He immediately split the team and sent a clear “My way or the highway” message by benching what seemed like the entire defense. Players who couldn’t conform (Jamie Winborn) were shipped off to other teams for pennies on the dollar.

The offense was historically bad.

Cody Pickett started two games. You don’t know Cody Pickett?

In his first game, Pickett went 12-21 for 102 yards and an INT. He followed that up with a historic 1-13 for 28 yards and one INT performance that landed him on a trivia card.

I haven’t checked, but I doubt he ever played again.

To give you an idea of how futile the rest of the quarterbacks were, the team went over 200 yards twice, for the entire season.

They passed for less then 100 yards five times.

The lone bright spot was the Reggie Bush lottery. With the worst team in the league, (maybe history) the once-proud franchise secured the No.1 pick for the second straight year and drafted the most dynamic runner to come into the NFL since Gale Sayers.

(Oh, wait, they “salvaged the season” by winning the last two games and blowing the first pick...what’s that you say? Reggie Bush kinda sucks? Oh well.)

For some reason, we, as a fanbase, headed into the 2006 season optimistic. There wasn’t any real reason other than that fans are traditionally duped at the beginning of every season.

The team went 7-9 and, at the time, appeared to be making progress. Nolan’s success as coach crested in Week 11 when a 20-14 victory over the Seahawks brought the team’s record to 5-5.

Five and five.

Three years and that’s the high-water mark.

In Week 12, the Niners were up one on the Rams in the fourth quarter. They managed to put together a seven-and-a-half-minute drive that brought them to the Rams' seven with four minutes left.

On 4th-and-inches, Nolan decided to kick. The Niners went up by four, and the Rams got the ball back with plenty of time and drove for the winning touchdown.

Now, I know hindsight is 20-20, and it’s easy to second guess, and blahblahblah...but, to wit: The team ranked 32nd in points scored against and 26th in yards against.

Why was the defense so horrible? Might it have something to do with Nolan shipping out all the defensive players left over from the '05 team that wouldn’t buy into this mess? (Among them, Julian Peterson and Andre Carter, or as I liked to refer to them, the talented ones.)

4th-and-inches was a make-or-break point in the season, and really, Nolan’s career. At that point, they were trailing Seattle by a game with one more game between them. A first down gives them three more shots at the end zone and a chance to run the clock and go up by eight. If ever there was a point for a bad team to grab victory by the throat and let it define their season, it was here.

The next week, the Saints slapped them around. The week after that, Green Bay had a turn. At 5-8, the season was over.

There were some positives, however, and there was a reason for optimism headed into 2007. Frank Gore was a beast. Alex Smith didn't look like a bust. The acquisition of Nate Clements and Patrick Willis meant the defense actually had NFL-caliber players, and most of all we figured, after two years, that Mike Nolan would figure out how not to coach with two hands around his throat.

What followed was an abomination, but before we go on, take a look at how inept the team has been on both sides of the ball:

	Off Rank		Def Rank
	Pts	Yds	Pts	Yds
2007	32	32	20	25
2006	24	26	32	26
2005	30	32	30	32

Notice how the offense is somehow worse then the historic '05 team, and how the defense has slightly improved.

(Under a DEFENSIVE coach who gets to pick his own players.)

2007 was a season that boasted the worst 2-0 team of all time and the worst offense in the history of professional sports. They had a coach who threw his golden boy draft-pick under the bus, then refused to take any responsibility for the fact that the plane that was the '07 Niners crashed into the goddamn mountain.

They were a five-win team that could have easily gone 0-16. The Cardinals handed them two games, Scott Linehan handed them their second victory in Week Two, and Nolan somehow rallied the team up for their annual “win two of the last three” for two cheap victories against the Bengals and Bucs.

(Let the record show, that despite his 16-32 career mark, Nolan's teams are 6-3 during Weeks 15-17. On Linehan/Nolan, I have to commend them. The 49er/Rams rivalry has always been lopsided, even though the all-time record is pretty close.

The Niners dominated throughout the '80s and into the late '90s, until the Rams took over for the next few years, ending with the hiring of Linehan after the '05 season. Now both teams are so incompetent you can’t rely on either to be a substantial favorite. It’s finally a real rivalry. Nolan matching wits with Linehan is like monkeys playing checkers.)

So the curtains are coming up on the fourth act of the travesty that is Mike Nolan, head coach.

Can he save his job?

Well...

If the defense can continue its moderate improvement (unlikely, as there’s still no pass rush and they let their best run-stuffing defensive lineman go), and if the offensive line can make significant improvements over last year’s squad (again, unlikely, as most of the players brought in will be backups).

Or, if Frank Gore can return to his '06 form (with that O-line, that QB, that supporting cast, and that Martz? That’s laughable man!), or if Alex Smith isn’t a colossal bust (hey, if anybody can help us see that our QB has value, even though he’s being pounded into the turf and the team is getting destroyed every week, it’s Mike Martz).

Maybe if Vernon Davis can learn to run a route (does running his mouth count?), or finally, if Mike Martz can use the fact that he coaches like he’s playing Madden to compensate for the fact that Mike Nolan doesn’t have testicles...they’ve got a chance.

That’s too much to ask for, right?

Right?

Warriors Re-sign Monta Ellis, Start Taking Shape

Rob Ohlstrom — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 18:08:18 -0400

It was taking long enough that it was beginning to worry me, but the Warriors and Monta Ellis finally agreed on a six-year, $67 million contract.

A few thoughts:

It's about time, and I'm surprised nobody else was willing to pay him more. (Probably nobody else could. It's also possible the reason this took as long as it did is because Monta was waiting to see if someone willing to put out an offer sheet could free up cap space.)

Suddenly, the Warriors don't look all that bad. Monta running the point (which I still don't like) Stephen Jackson, Corey Maggette, Al Harrington and Andris Biedrins round out the starting five, with Kelenna Azubuike, Maurice Evans (I still haven't seen this confirmed), Ronny Turiaf, newly acquired Marcus Williams, and possibly one or all three of Anthony Randolph, Brandan Wright and Marco Belinelli ready to come off the bench.

Don't write them out of the playoffs just yet. Stranger things have happened.

Now just sign Biedrins and wait for next year.

Should Barry Bonds Be Signed By Now?

Rob Ohlstrom — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 05:27:53 -0400

“I’m talking about friendship. I’m talking about character. I’m talking about—hell, Leo, I’m not embarrassed to use the word—I’m talking about ethics.”

—Johnny Caspar, Miller’s Crossing

Barry Bonds sits at home. His agent has admitted his job prospects are grim. The man who had the fourth highest OPS last season is waiting for a team to call. There’re plenty of contenders who’d benefit from having his bat in the designated-hitter spot, but baseball isn’t always about winning. Sometimes it’s about character. It’s about ethics.

In a whimsical fantasyland, where professional-sports teams care more about winning than ethics, he’d be signed already. In the AL alone, nine teams are within six games of a playoff spot.

Not all of those teams could use him. Three of those teams (Boston, Chicago, and Texas) have DH’s who are playing well. Oakland could use him, but we can throw them out because Billy Beane doesn’t really care about winning.

Tampa and Minnesota should sign him, but I just can’t picture Bonds playing there. (That and Selig would put a hex on either franchise)

That leaves three teams: the Tigers, Yankees, and Angels.

The Tigers are on the outside looking in. Widely considered one of the most talented teams in the league, they got off to a horrible start, but have slowly crawled their way back.

They’re sitting five-and-a-half games out of first, and seven out of the Wild Card, with five teams in front of them. The Tigers are a long shot, but if they get in, they’d be as good a bet as anyone to win the whole thing.

Their DH, Gary Sheffield, is hitting .225 (15th on the team) with an OPS of .698 (14th). Bonds could step in right now and hit in the heart of the Tigers' order.

Of course, Barry Bonds is widely considered one of the biggest jerks in the history of sports, not like Sheffield, who’s generally considered one of the “good guys” in the sport...

Or maybe the Tigers are going to move Thames to the DH (OPS .936, 19 HR) and put rookie Matt Joyce (OPS .950, AB/HR 11.6) in left.

On the surface, the Yankees make sense. They’re four-and-a-half games out and Giambi could move over to first so Barry could DH. He’d be a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium, and as an added bonus, Red Sox fans would revert to a state of panic, and isn’t that all that Yankee fans really care about?

Wouldn’t A-Rod, Bonds, and Giambi be the most fearsome three-four-five in baseball?

Unfortunately, this is the part where the Yankees' fans remember the long unspoken “code of conduct” that the organization has followed from their inception, from such special human beings as Ruth, DiMaggio, Martin, and Clemens, into the current millennium of today’s team, with the aforementioned A-Rod and Giambi, along with the likes of Sidney Ponson and Johnny Damon.

Bonds wouldn’t fit in with that group at all.

This leaves us with the Angels.

Unfortunately for ethics, the Angels have the best record in baseball. Despite this, they can’t hit. They’re ranked 21st in runs, 18th in hitting, and 23rd in OPS. The closest man they have to a designated hitter, Juan Rivera, is batting .245 with a .691 OPS and 11 RBI.

Is that really how their playoff lineup is going to shape up?

Juan Rivera playing in right so Vlad can DH? Bottom of the ninth with Juan Rivera coming up, down one with a man on second and a couple of outs?

Really? That’s worth it?

What do you call another first-round exit? Another year of Red Sox fans taking over Angel Stadium? The best team in baseball passing up the opportunity to sign the greatest hitter of all time and bolster their anemic offense?

Call that character.

Call it ethics.

Just don’t call it the smart play.

Brett Favre and Alex Rodriguez: Certain Things Have Come to Light

Rob Ohlstrom — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 21:42:19 -0400

To paraphrase The Big Lebowski, the greatest movie of our time…

Bleacher Report: What in God’s holy name are you blathering about?

I’ll tell you what I’m blathering about…I’ve got information, man…and new things have come to light!

BR:…?

Look at it! Aging, iconic quarterback, in the parlance of our times…you know, the clock is ticking on his time in the spotlight…I’m saying he needs fame! Man, and just playing, well that doesn’t get it…he wants more!

BR:…?

He’s got to feed the monkey!

BR:…?

Hasn’t that ever occurred to you, man?

National media: No, Mr. Ohlstrom, that had not occurred to me.

BR: That had not occurred to us, Rob.

Well…hey, you guys aren’t privy to all the new things, but hey, you know…that’s what you pay me for…

To ESPN, sports fans everywhere, and Brett Favre: I’m so sick of this story. Favre has been hemming and hawing about retirement for the past FIVE years so his name stays in the press. He had a deal to come back in March with the team and he backed out at the last minute.

Now he wants an unconditional release so he can join the Bears and stab the fine city of Green Bay in the back. Fortunately, the Packers refused to cut him, but now if they keep him he’ll undermine Aaron Rodgers, the team, and ultimately the city.

What a scumbag. I’m so sick of seeing him on the front page of every major media outlet day after day. He can’t even do an interview with an actual sports reporter; he goes to Greta Van Susteren. What a match made in heaven that must have been.

DAMN YOUR BLACK HEART, BRETT FAVRE! DAMN YOU TO HELL!

You know what else? I don’t want to hear any play-by-play guys gush over how “Brett Favre loves the game of football.” I don’t want to hear it. He is the most overrated quarterback in the history of the game, and his time has come and gone.

Go away.

Stop writing about him.

I’m talking to you too, BR's. You know who you are. We don’t need any more Brett Favre articles around here!

Lord, you can imagine where it goes from here.

He fixes the cable?

To Alex Rodriguez and Madonna. Let me get this straight. Madonna realizes that she’s married to a one-trick pony who’s specialty is directing sickeningly slick shining pieces of crap, sees her new album tank (Did you know she had a new album until she hooked up with A-Rod? I didn’t), and suddenly drops him for Rodriguez, who has to be the biggest piece of trash-lapping scum this side of Brett Favre.

Are you kidding me?

Now in A-Rod’s defense, the media jumps on everything he does. When everyone in the country was hooked on Texas hold 'em, he got busted at a club in New York, and the media vilified him for something everyone was doing.

But c’mon A-Rod, you’re married, she’s married…I know you’re a Yankee, but can I get a little dignity, please?

What’s next, allegations that he makes himself cry like Will in The Real World?

Well, I guess we can close the file on that one…

12 Steps to Fantasy Football Greatness…er, Competence

Rob Ohlstrom — Sun, 13 Jul 2008 21:16:41 -0400

Tired of your buddies working you over year after year?

Does your wife refer to your team as the '99 Rams?

Do you find yourself taking Carson Palmer in the third round year after year?

Are you thinking of, or have you drafted Edgerrin James in the past two years?

If you or anyone you know has ever suffered from these symptoms, you may suffer from fantasy-related mesothelioma. Put down that gun friend, Dr. Ohlstrom’s here to help!

I was once just like you, confused, scared...lonely. I have drafted Carson Palmer in the third round, and spent an entire season drowning my regret at Willie’s around the corner. I even took the Bears' defense in the 10th round one year.

Of course they blew up that year and the pick really paid off, but that’s beside the point.

With the help of my 12-step system I’m over that now and will never make those mistakes again...and with my help, you won’t either!

I) Wait until the last two rounds to draft your defense and kicker

It’s obvious, but people somehow screw this up. I don’t know why I’m writing this because the guys who draft the Chargers' defense in the ninth round don’t know how to read anyway.

II) Stick with your early picks

Last year, I played with a guy who picked Brees in the early rounds, and then ended up cutting him because he got off to a slow start. Naturally, Brees picked up his play and was picked up by an owner who used him to finish fourth and slide into the last playoff spot. You’ll never guess who came in fifth.

III) Running back is still king

You can never have too many quality running backs. If your league starts two and a flex, you'll want four. Running back is the one position you can always make a trade with. There will always be an owner who doesn’t draft them right. Act accordingly.

IV) Never draft a running back over thirty

Just don’t do it.

V) Grab a QB late

There’s always a QB projected to go in the first round. For the past few years, it’s been Peyton Manning. Last year, Brady blew up, so now he’s the token first-round QB.

But here’s the thing: Manning played as well last year as he does every year. So why isn’t he a first-round pick too?

It’s a little-known rule that all reputable fantasy experts must adhere to. None of these experts are taking Brady in the first round, yet they rank him there. Why? Because they want schmucks like you and me to take Tom Brady with the sixth pick, take Larry Johnson in the second, and Reggie Bush in the fourth.

It’s because most fantasy experts are heartless bastards who don’t care about you and me.

After Brady, Manning, and Romo are gone, target some guys further down your list and pick them up in later rounds. Say you like Eli Manning and David Garrard, and figure neither one of them will be among the top-10 QBs taken in your draft (I am in no way, shape, or form advocating that you take Eli Manning).

Wait as long as you can and pick them both up in back-to-back rounds. When Eli starts throwing a consistent buck-thirty every week after Week Four, just cut him and go to Garrard. In the end, his numbers aren’t going to be that much different than Brees, Palmer, or Roethlisberger, the group that makes up the second tier anyway.

VI) Pick a tight end right before you draft a defense

There are something like 20 legit starting options this year. Don’t think so?

Go to a mock-draft Website and do two mock drafts. In the first one, break out your fifth rounder on Gates, Witten, or Winslow, and make a note of guys you had your eye on who went immediately after.

For your second draft, wait until the 10th round and pick Alge Crumpler or Owen Daniels. Now look over both teams.

Ernest Graham, Fred Taylor, Brandon Marshall, and Anquan Boldin are all guys who should be around when Gates and Witten are taken.

Deuce McAllister, Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown, and Jerious Norwood are guys around when you might be picking Crumpler or Daniels.

Do the math

VII) Do multiple mock drafts

This is almost like cheating. Do it on multiple sites. The mock will give you an idea on who’s going to go where, and it’s also going to let you do crazy things like take Brady with the third pick and show you that the consequence is having to start Julius Jones as your second running back.

VIII) Buy as many magazines as you can afford

It’s never a bad thing to know that the guy drafting between your next two picks probably has Steve Smith and T.J. Houshmandzadeh ranked ahead of Marques Colston, just because he brought the ESPN mag to the draft, or that the guy who brought Lundy’s has Winslow ranked before Witten. Every little bit helps.

IX) Forget Strength of Schedule

In theory, this is a great idea, but in practice, it’s impossible to figure out how well a guy is going to play by the end of the season. Last year, Greg Jennings was supposed to suck because he played against horrible DBs as a rookie, and last year had some of the toughest matchups in the league.

He turned out to be a stud anyway. Reggie Wayne was supposed to get the weak sisters of all the teams the Colts played, but he ended up taking on all their best corners because Harrison got hurt and he still had a huge year.

X) Your bench spots are for running backs and wide receivers. One extra QB is ok

If I draft Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, I don’t think I’m taking a backup QB. Otherwise, it's ok, but wait until someone else takes a backup. I’m drafting as many running backs and wide receivers as I can, because in almost every league, you’re going to have five starting spots for those two positions, and they often get injured.

I’m not drafting a backup tight end, and I’m certainly not taking a second defense. A second kicker is right out.

However, it’s ok to be the guy that drafts Gates in the third, then takes Gonzalez in the fifth and Clark in the sixth, and then claims that he’s forcing the rest of us to trade with him because he’s stockpiling a position that’s easy to fill.

This is usually the guy who drafted Manning in the first round, and I have to say I can’t find many flaws in this strategy.

XI) Rank your players by position and stick to it

I have two examples from drafts two years ago. Steven Jackson, whom I thought was primed for a big year (he did), slipped to me in the second round in two drafts. Both leagues started two QBs.

For the first draft, I took him with the 14th pick and couldn’t believe I got him. In the second draft, I thought about taking him and instead went with Rudi Johnson because I thought it was too good to be true and was worried that he’d kill both teams if he didn’t pan out.

Later on in that draft, I was fixated on Kurt Warner as my second QB (I think I had him ranked no. 13). He was taken a couple picks in front of me, and I was forced to go with the next guy on my list, which happened to be Drew Brees.

Now, I had also picked up Brees as my QB2 in the other league, but here I felt he was so much better than the guy I had ranked at 15 (Eli Manning) that I had to take him. Brees turned out to be the second-highest scoring QB in all of fantasy that year, and Jackson was the second RB.

As fate would have it I won the league where I refused to draft Steven Jackson for a second time.

The other team was the most dominate team I ever had, which ended up losing in the championship round which was played in...

XII)Don’t play your championship game in Week 17

This one only matters if you’re the commish, but listen, there is nothing worse than fielding the best team all season and having to pick Ahmad Bradshaw off of waivers to play your championship game because you know Joseph Addai will sit after the first quarter.

You know what, one more

XIII) Know your rules

I’ve played in leagues where the commish doesn’t know the rules himself.

It’s an advantage.

John Paxson, Chris Mullin Can Solve Each Other’s Problems

Rob Ohlstrom — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 21:55:45 -0400

John Paxson and Chris Mullin have problems. Paxson needs to free up enough cap room to sign Derrick Rose, Ben Gordon, and Luol Deng. Mullin has plenty of cap room, but he has no point guard to run his team. Paxson needs a power forward who can score down low. Mullin has a power forward. Paxson has a point guard.

Monta Ellis puts Mullin in a bit of a bind. He’s a unique talent and is the future of the franchise. Davis was the perfect point guard to pair with him because he was big enough to man up shooting guards, and let Ellis take the smaller points.

With Davis gone Mullin is faced with two choices. He has to let Ellis play out of position and let Nelson run some kind of point by committee, or he needs to find a replacement point that’s big enough to D up shooting guards.

Enter Kirk Hinrich, who’s been playing the same role for Ben Gordon in Chicago.

The Bulls made a mistake signing Hinrich and Nocioni to long-term contracts. Both players aren’t living up to them, and now, by winning the draft they can’t sign Rose and afford to keep Gordon and Deng. Someone has to move.

So bring in Al Harrington. He can score down low and he can run the pick and roll with Rose, slashing to the basket or dropping back for threes. If he doesn’t work out he’s a free agent next year. Pay the luxury tax for a year and let him sign somewhere else.

For the Warriors Hinrich is a risk salary wise, but he allows Monta to stay in his natural position. Monta would become the alpha dog in Davis' place. It would give the Warriors a starting line up that would include a budding all-star (Ellis), a borderline all-star (Jackson), and two top ten players at their respective positions (Hinrich and Biedrins, look it up).

This would leave a mix of Wright, Belinelli, Randolph, and Hendrix to fill out the lineup along with Azubuike (who should be re-signed), and possibly Barnes. If the Warriors are lucky they could convince Pietrus to re-up (He won’t, there’s too much bad blood there.), and if they’re very lucky they just might be able to stumble into Corey Maggette.

Pick up the phone, gentlemen.

Did the Clippers Tamper with Davis? Along With Other News From Around the Bay

Rob Ohlstrom — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 12:32:17 -0400

The NBA needs to do some digging.

I find it hard to believe that Baron Davis decided to leave $17.8 million on the table just because he thought the Clippers might sign him.

Am I really supposed to believe that he decided that the off chance that Donald Sterling, who’s notorious for letting talent walk over money, was going to shell out $65 million for a point guard who’s missed 150 games over the past six seasons?

For a player whom is so loathed by coaches and GM’s around the league that he was shamelessly shut out of the All-Star game this past season?

It smells, and David Stern should look into it.

Don’t expect Elton Brand to take the Warrior’s offer either. He’s “mulling it over” right now in order to make things look good.

I bet he gets $10 million more out of Sterling, which will put them $10 million over the luxury tax and bring the total cost to the Clippers up to $90 million. This would match the Warrior offer (in a way). If Elton doesn’t squeeze a little more money out, it’s too obvious.

Davis’ decision puts the Warrior’s in a tight spot. There isn’t a natural point guard on the roster. They offered Arenas the max but I don’t see that either, and truth be told, I don’t think they expected him to sign. They may have just tried to drive up the price as a sort of payback to the Wiz taking Arenas away years ago.

There’s a lot of grumblings around San Jose

Doug Wilson was right to stay out of the bidding for Brian Campbell and Wade Redden. One problem with playing in the West is that you never know how a player is going to make the jump to the more physical and just downright better division.

Campbell looked great down the stretch, but became a liability in the post season. The Sharks already have plenty of defensemen who get bullied in the post season who don’t get paid seven million a year.

One need that’s easier to fill would be third and fourth line forwards.

Rissmiller and Brown needed to go.

I wouldn’t have minded seeing Brian Rolston make his way out West, but unfortunately he went the other way.

Right now the D-men shake out: Rivet, Vlasic, Murray, McLaren, and Carle. Ehrhoff needs to be signed. Vlasic needs to fill out. Carle needs to take a big step. McLaren needs to prove he’s not washed up.

Rivet does what he’s been advertised to do, and Murray played better than anyone could have hoped for last year.

Unfortunately, there's no game changing defenseman the Sharks can pick up that will instantly vault them over the Red Wings.

Wilson so far has made the right move by not tying up cap space.

(Now don't go out and trade for Dan Boyle who's on the hook till he's 38)

Are you really going to write me up for that?

"The grievance alleges that he was unlawfully terminated and asked that he be made whole,"

-Michael Weiner, MLB Players Union

The MLB Players Union is filing a grievance for Shawn Chacon.

Chacon has admitted that he grabbed his GM by the throat, threw him down to the ground, and jumped on top of him.

That’s not an action that merits termination?

What exactly would merit termination Mr. Weiner?

Aggravated assault isn’t enough?

I would love to get a job at the Player’s Union and start picking people up by their necks and throwing them to the ground.

Would they write me up for that?

How To Avoid the Season-Killing Running Back

Rob Ohlstrom — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 11:06:08 -0400

If you’re not careful, your season can be over before it starts.

Every expert's list of whom to draft and where to draft them is full of guys that are just waiting to take a dump right in your hand. It doesn't matter if a guy is ranked at number five or 105. A bust at 10 is a bust anywhere on the board.

Don’t believe me?

Ask the guy in your league how his season went after he drafted Larry Johnson with the fifth pick last year, or the dude that took Shaun Alexander with the seventh.

I’m just guessing here, but I bet they didn’t make the playoffs.

Running back is the most important position in fantasy football. This year, there are 11 guys who are worth a pick in the first round, and only five of them are sure things.

After that, every back has questions. The task for each owner is to not be the guy who takes this year's Shaun Alexander at the end of the first round.

Fortunately, there are pretty clear indicators on whether or not a running back will break down.

Age

Running backs break down after 30. Look it up.

Major Injury

Nobody recovers from an ACL tear in less then two years at full speed. The only guy who ever did was Jerry Rice back in '97. Two things about that: First off, it was Jerry Rice, and second, his recovery angered the football gods so much that he broke his kneecap while catching a touchdown in his comeback game. You really think you're better than Jerry Rice?

Mileage

This category is tough. Larry Johnson was the obvious mileage guy last year, and he broke down. This year, I’ll get to the obvious one later (He’s not a first-round pick by any means).

The intriguing pick for this category is LT. Coming into this season, nine guys have had more touches than him before they hit 30. I’m not saying that you shouldn’t draft him, but we can see the end of the road, can't we?

The Late Rounds

Guys who might go after Round 10. This is where you should be picking your backup QB, your sleepers, maybe your tight end if you've waited that long. This is no place to take a flier on some broken-down old man.

Shaun Alexander

He fits the age and mileage. It’s been obvious that he’s been washed up for the past two years.

Cedric Benson

I'm just putting him here because I hate him.

Ahman Green

He’s the starter, but he hasn’t been a viable fantasy option since 2003.

Deuce McAllister

He tore his left ACL in Week Three. Then he had microfracture surgery on his right knee in February.

Remember when Amare Stoudemire had microfracture surgery on his knee? Remember how long it took him to recover? On the bright side, he’s only 29, so he won't be completely washed up until he's ready to make his return for the 2009 season.

The Middle Rounds

This is where you should be filling out your starting lineup. The fourth round through the ninth. Your first six picks should all be guys who will start and be productive, and even after that, there's QBs, TEs, and WRs who are bona fide starters that can be had in rounds seven, eight, and nine.

Rudi Johnson

Rudi doesn’t fit into any of the categories by themselves, but he’s on the border in every case. He’s 28 and has spent the past season battling injuries. Over the past three years, his YPC has dropped from 4.3 to 3.8 to 2.9. Kenny Watson is already the third-down back, and he averaged 4.3 YPC when Rudi was out.

Thomas Jones

He’s 30, but he hasn’t been a featured back his entire career, so that’s not as bad as it is with other guys. He still averaged just 3.6 YPC last year. Yes, I know his line has been improved. Between Johnson and James, however, he's the one guy I could be wrong on.

I'm not drafting him.

Edgerrin James

30-years old. Over 3,000 career touches. His YPC the past two years has been 3.4 and 3.8. Historically, you don’t hand off to a guy over 300 times a year if he can’t average more then four-yards a carry, but hey, this is the Cardinals we’re talking about.

The Tweener

He'll probably go between picks 30 and 40. He isn't as bad as the guys behind him, but doesn't belong with the guys ahead.

Reggie Bush

Did you see him run last year? Honestly? (In a reception league, I’d take him in the fourth round, though.)

The Early Rounds

The first three rounds. Your first three picks should carry your team. These two have red flags too big to ignore.

(Who was on the fringe? Willie Parker. What's it gonna be, Willie? Two touchdowns or ten? Mendenhall's over-hyped, right?)

Ronnie Brown

It takes two years to recover from a torn ACL.

Unless you’re a hockey player. Then it takes like four months.

Larry Johnson

Let’s break this down.

Brodie Croyle is not good. Which means he’ll spend the season facing eight and nine-man fronts.

His offensive line is horrible. Offensive line is the most important unit on the offense. If they can’t get the job done, your offense is going to struggle. Bottom line.

Herm Edwards isn’t a good coach. In fact, you could call him a bad coach.

He’s turning 29. Next year, he'll be 30.

He’s coming off a major injury to his foot. Umm, the foot...supports...the running.

His YPC over the past three years has gone 5.2, 4.3, 3.5. Which means that it’s on pace to drop to 2.8 this year.

(That stat is totally reliable, by the way.)

His defense is horrible. Which means the Chiefs will have to throw the ball to catch up.

Even with the injury last year, he’s carried the ball just as much as anyone else in the last few years. He's third in total touches over the last three years.

He feels more comfortable playing for a black coach.

(You know what? I'm not going to touch that one.)