Bleacher Report - Articles by Tim Azevedo

The Big 12 South's 17.5 Million Dollar Question: Who Wins ?

Tim Azevedo — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 17:14:28 -0500

Funny how the fine print always comes back to haunt you later.

If Oklahoma beats Texas Tech and Oklahoma State (which is far from guaranteed), the Big 12 South faces the very real possibility of a three-way tie.

Thus, the fine print of Big 12 tie-breaking comes under intense scrutiny.

The tie-breakers are, in order:

The records of the three teams will be compared against each other (head-to-head competition among three teams).
The records of the three teams will be compared within their division.
The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5 and 6).
The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
The highest team in the first Bowl Championship Series standings following the completion of Big 12 regular season conference play shall be the representative.
The team with the best overall winning percentage (excluding exempted games) shall be the representative.
The representative will be chosen by draw.

Personally, I like option seven. There is no guesswork, no polling, no computer formulas— just sheer, unbiased chance.

But I'll go through the rules one by one, just to be thorough.

Rule 1.This would be irrelevant since we are assuming OU beats TTU, UT beats OU, and TTU beats UT. It's like playing rock-paper-scissors with acronyms.

Rule 2. This only matters if Texas loses to A&M, Tech loses to Baylor, or Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State. But then, they wouldn't be tied in the first place, would they?

Rule 3. See rule two. Otherwise they are all tied at 3-0 against the bottom three of the Big 12 South.

Rule 4.There is only one common Big 12 North opponent between all three teams: Kansas. Therefore, if Texas loses to Kansas this weekend, they would be eliminated.

The winner of the OU-TTU game would then clinch the Big 12 South. Otherwise, if Texas wins, all three are still tied at 1-0 against common conference opponents.

Rule 5.Ah, our old friend, the BCS. Clearly, the Big 12 conference has been watching way too much American Idol if they actually believe in this multi-tiered voting system stuff.

Nevertheless, this is the most likely tie-breaker.

As we all know, the BCS is one-third Harris Poll, one-third Coaches' Poll, and one-third computer rankings.

Now, Oklahoma probably gets the nod over Texas Tech (at least in the human rankings) if they beat them this late in the season. So the question becomes whether they will jump ahead of Texas.

I'm not intimately familiar with the computer rankings, but I do know that they don't take margin of victory into account. Thus, coming in with even records at very similar strengths of schedule, I don't see the computers picking either team by much.

That means it's probably up to the people who decide the Harris and the Coaches' polls.

Believe it or not, Oklahoma (No. 4) is already ahead of Texas (No. 5) in the Coaches' poll. Barring stunning 100+ point margins of victory in Texas's remaining games, it seems likely to stay that way.

In the Harris Poll, Texas is ahead of Oklahoma by 44 points out of 2,825 possible. For the mathematically challenged, that's a difference of less than two percent.

So if Oklahoma wins by less than ten over Tech, does that mean they don't pass Texas in the Harris poll? How about more than ten (or any other arbitrary number you like)?

Does Oklahoma get the nod if they win in an even number of overtimes? Does Texas get the nod if the game goes into an odd number of overtimes?

Or is it a simple matter of whether there are more OU or UT partisans in the poll?

Does choosing by draw sound so ridiculous to you now?

Frankly, I don't know how you decide this sort of thing fairly. Maybe that's why Bob Stoops, Oklahoma coach and longtime supporter of the BCS, has finally come out in favor of a playoff in college football?

Anyway, barring a tie in the BCS (wouldn't that be great?), this will decide the issue one way or the other.

But let's look at the last two just for fun.

Rule 6. This won't matter since all three teams play 12 games and they each won all their non-conference games. Since we are at Rule 6, they must have already tied within the conference (see rules 2, 3, and 4). That makes it all even-stevens at 11-1.

Rule 7. The argument for the draw is that all three teams, if they are still tied after six tie-breakers, must be about equal. So it really doesn't matter who you pick at this point.

And since whoever wins the Big 12 South will probably go to the BCS title game, it's like a very exclusive lottery for the projected 17.5 million dollar payout. (Of course, everyone in the Big 12 conference wins no matter who goes since the money is divided up)

Come on, you know you'd like one of the participants in the national championship game to be decided by a draw.

Not even the Big 10 could defend the system then.

A Pithy Defense of Defense in the Big 12

Tim Azevedo — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 19:04:58 -0500

In a year of Big 12 envy, certain fans of other BCS conferences have regularly fallen back on the last decent argument that allows them to cling to the past: The only reason the Big 12 teams have looked so spectacular is that their defenses are so lackluster.

The SEC fans (whom I admire for their dedication), with their historically great defenses, are the first and loudest in making this claim.

Respectfully though, I believe Urban Meyer's version of the spread, powered by Tebow and Co., has been exposing the mythic SEC defenses as merely good this season. This is relevant because the Gators are probably the only SEC team with an offense comparable to the top Big 12 teams.

Florida has scored no less than 30 points in EVERY conference game so far this season. That includes 30 on Tennessee (No. 11 in total defense), 49 on Georgia (No. 30 in total defense), 51 on LSU (No. 21 in total defense), and 63 on Kentucky (No. 26 in total defense).

Now compare that to Baylor (No. 92 in total defense) who gave up "only" 49 points to Oklahoma and 31 points to Missouri. This is almost identical to the points Florida scored on LSU and Tennessee, but their defenses are ranked 71 and 81 spots higher, respectively.

Keep in mind that Florida is ranked behind eight (!) of the Big 12 schools in total offense.

What does this all mean?

I think the reasonable conclusion is that the Big 12 offenses (and Florida's too) are as good as advertised. They cannot be defended against in the usual way. They have to be outscored.

This is why the Big 12 defenses are so easily targeted—by disgruntled fans and high-powered offenses.

If that is the case, then either the Big 12 defenses are underrated or the SEC defenses are overrated, or both.

You may complain that the comparison is unfair. You may complain that the examples I have chosen are unrepresentative. You may complain that the NCAA has rigged the stats.

But I think cooler heads will recognize that this is not the case. I have simply presented the facts, nothing more and nothing less.

You decide.

Roaring to Victory: Baylor Bears Blow Out Iowa State Cyclones 38-10

Tim Azevedo — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 14:35:04 -0400

Two teams, long the bottom-feeders of their respective divisions, but recently showing signs of life. Both driven by high-powered, Big 12 offenses with similar statistics in every meaningful category. Both coming off frustrating losses to ranked opponents.

Most reasonable people probably would have predicted a shoot-out, a close match where the team with the last big drive wins.

But, of course, they would have been way off. But hey—this is college football we're talking about, right?

"I hate to say this was a must-win, but we needed it," Baylor head coach, Art Briles, said. "Any Big 12 victory is hard to come by, and this was a good step in the right direction. We’ve felt all along we’re a good football team, and maybe we’re starting to show it a little bit."

Maybe. After all, out-scoring a Big 12 opponent by 28 points only ties Baylor's highest margin of victory since joining the conference.

It started with a TD in the first quarter and Baylor never looked back. It wasn't until halfway through the fourth quarter when ISU avoided complete embarrassment by putting together a TD drive to bring up the final score of 38-10.

I will dispense with the play-by-play. Honestly, the drive summaries speak for themselves:

ISU: Punt, Punt, Punt, FG, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, TD, Int.

To summarize, Iowa State head coach, Gene Chizik, gave one of the most depressing post-game quotes I've ever heard: "I don't really have a word to describe the game honestly. It was bad football all the way around; offense, defense and obviously special teams. We were not clicking and we were not in sync, anywhere."

BU: Punt, TD, TD, TD, Halftime, TD (kickoff return), Punt, FG, Punt, Knee.

"That’s the most complete game we’ve played all year," Briles concluded. "We were very crisp from an offensive standpoint and everybody acted like they knew what they were doing. Our defense did an outstanding job of making plays when they had to. Baker’s kickoff return really ignited the crowd."

Clearly, Briles' Bears came to win. Chizik's Cyclones just came to visit.

Granted, any team can have a bad week, and that seems to be the case here. But superior teams also cause lesser teams to look bad.

Here's how Baylor did it.

The Robert Griffin Show

Robert Griffin completed 85 percent of his passes for 278 yards and two TDs. Whatever criticism of his passing may have been whirling around in Iowa (Matt Gubbels, writing for Iowa State Daily, made up this little gem: "Baylor has shown no ability to throw the ball") is quickly drying up.

There have been two basic approaches to containing Griffin so far this season: blitz or spy. The Cyclones tried both.

When they spied him, Griffin was content to sit back and pick apart the secondary. When they rushed, three sacks notwithstanding, Griffin actually made his most spectacular throws of the night (including a 34-yard bomb on 3rd-and-long).

Although Griffin actually had negative rushing yardage this week, he still managed his sixth straight game with a rushing TD—out of six total games.

Speaking of amazing streaks, out of his six total games, how many interceptions does Griffin have? None, nada, niet, nein.

According to stats on ESPN.com, he's the only FBS quarterback with more than 100 attempts (128 so far) who can claim that stat. The other contenders, Jack Locker of Washington (probably out for the season with a broken thumb) and Tyler Lee of Miss. St. only have 93 attempts each.

Breakaway Speed

Receiver Kendall Wright had the best game of his brief career. The freshman pulled in seven receptions for 132 yards and two TDs through the air, plus two more runs for 13 on the ground. He even passed on a trick play (it was incomplete).

And how about that No. 3 Sportscenter top 10 highlight reel of his 51-yard TD play (also pictured above)?

It should come as no surprise, though; Wright is unbelievably athletic. Wright was a star HS quarterback, now transitioning nicely to receiver at Baylor. He is also on the Baylor track team (along with teammate Robert Griffin) and will play guard for the recently successful Baylor basketball team (watch his basketball highlight reel on Youtube sometime).

Wondering why he ended up at Baylor?

"I feel like the program’s going to change under Coach Briles," Wright said in an interview with the Waco Tribune-Herald. "You can play fast in his offense — and that’s the way I like it."

Coming into the season, Wright was clearly one of the most talented recruits of this year's crop. It was just a matter of time before he proved it.

Red Zone Stonewall

In the second quarter, Iowa State made its first sustained drive to the Baylor four yard line, but couldn't close the deal after two false starts. Chizik called in his kicker for the FG but, in the ensuing play, a devastating roughing the kicker penalty was called on the Bears.

1st-and-2 now, the Cyclones looked poised to halve Baylor's 14 point lead.

Somehow, at the end of a bizarre series with another false start, a delay of game, an illegal block, and great defense, ISU had to settle for the FG again.

This is just one highlight of the steely defensive play that won Baylor this game.

Discipline and Improvement

I've had a few standing complaints about the Bears this season. Thankfully, there was improvement in each area this week.

First, the previously inconsistent Baylor offensive line dominated the trenches the whole game. Consequently, Griffin had plenty of time to make all his passes count, dramatically increasing his pass efficiency over last week against Oklahoma.

Second, Baylor's penalties were not significant enough to make a difference. Although there were seven penalties, they were only good for 39 yards.

Third, the Bears put aside a sometimes unipolar offense with eight players rushing and seven players catching passes.

Fourth, the defensive secondary stepped up and made a few big stops. The blown coverages of the Oklahoma game were apparently drilled out of existence by the Baylor coaching staff.

Fifth, the special teams finally got the big kickoff return they've been wanting all season. 93 yards to be exact. This partially makes up for the still mediocre kickoffs and punts.

The Bottom Line

Art Briles evened up the record to 3-3 overall, 1-1 in conference play. Every loss so far is against teams ranked in or near the top 25 (UConn only dropped out after losing without its star QB to a ranked UNC squad).

But a schedule already easily among the ten toughest is about to get even tougher. A grueling stretch against OSU, a somewhat improved Nebraska, Missouri, and Texas looms.

Baylor will have to take at least one of these games away to keep any hope of a post-season alive. This win is a solid start and, I think, demonstrates that Baylor is capable of hanging with anyone when it brings its "A" game.

Sic' Em.

Baylor Mauls Washington State 45-17: A New Beginning for the Bears?

Tim Azevedo — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 14:22:44 -0400

This was probably the first Baylor game (now in my third year at Baylor) where I was truly proud of my team.

Don't take that the wrong way. There is no shortage of people (even at Baylor) ready and willing to verbally tear Baylor down. I'm not one of them.

In fact, most of the people who talk trash about Baylor should take a serious look at their progress the last few years in the Big 12 South, arguably the best division in football.

At the very least, the team has made slow steps toward respectability since the Big 12 got started, first with Morriss and now with Briles.

Baylor, one of those great, storied teams of college football, has had some decent games in recent history as well: Baylor won against every Big 12 North opponent in 2006, including Colorado in a 2OT win at Boulder.

Oklahoma (2 OT loss in Norman) and OSU (W 44-34) in 2005 were also exciting. But this was completely different: a thorough domination of a major conference opponent.

The Bears physically and mentally outplayed the Cougars in almost every meaningful category. It's safe to say that Baylor fans have not seen the Bears play such a complete game since the now-legendary Grant Teaff, not counting FCS teams and the various SMUs of the FBS.

Granted, Washington State is not the best in the PAC-10, granted WSU had some adjustments to make for Ike, etc., etc.

But after a humbling loss to Wake, I was worried Baylor might not recover its faith in their coach and their potential. I need not have worried, apparently.

Hopefully, the W will give the Bears a much-needed confidence boost, while still keeping them hungry enough to make up for mistakes against Wake, in order to take on this year's tougher-than-usual conference play.

The game in perspective:

1. Robert Griffin is the real deal. He already plays at an incredible level in only his second start. He is probably the best QB Baylor has/will see for a long time. This could be the break Baylor needs: not only this year, but for the next four.

Brandon Gibson, a WR for WSU, said after the game, "(Robert Griffin) is an explosive player. He looks like a receiver playing quarterback. He has a cannon and David Gettis can get out there and run."

As a freshman, Griffin set a 217-yard single-game Baylor rushing record, passing over school RB greats like former NFL player Walter Abercrombie. He also set a new Big 12 record with 19.7 (!) yards per carry.

While undeniably talented, there are still question marks. Will he have the dedication to hone his raw ability to its potential? Can he step up when the pressure from quick and powerful OU linemen is on? Can he avoid injuries in his occasionally reckless plays? Can he take the spotlight and the criticism that goes with it? Will he be a team leader? A team player?

And the whole time, can he handle Baylor academics (less forgiving than certain other conference schools, *cough* UT *cough*)

2. The team has improved from top to bottom since Week 1. The offense seems to have their timing down, forcing WSU to play out of alignment several times. Baylor finally has a running game with Jay Finley and Jeremy Sanders, not to mention Griffin, racking up a total of 426 rushing yards on 42 carries.

The O-line looks to be an asset this year, opening up huge holes for the run, while the D-line and linebackers shut down WSU's running and passing game with 7 sacks and forcing 2 interceptions.

WR David Gettis has potential for great yards after reception, but despite some standout plays, making the catch is still a problem for Baylor receivers this year. Griffin's occasional inaccuracy has had some part in that, however.

The defensive secondary, on the other hand has no excuse for their performance. They almost single-handedly allowed the Cougars to go 9 for 18 on 3rd down conversions and 2 for 3 on 4th down. Texas Tech (and really almost every Big 12 team) is going to chew them up if they don't pick up the slack.

Special teams also looked underwhelming, including a missed FG from 33 yards out. Continued inconsistency here could make for a much more uphill climb for the Bears in games to come.

3. I'm going to risk it: this could be "the year" for Baylor football. A bowl game, so out of reach after two disappointing five-win seasons in '05 and '06, is once again in sight for the Baylor faithful.

Now 2-1, Baylor needs four more wins to be bowl-eligible. Given the strength of the Big 12 and non-conference play this year, that should be enough. UConn, Iowa State, and Texas A&M are must-wins, with A&M down this season.

Even I will not indulge my wild fantasies of wins against Oklahoma and Mizzou this season, though. That leaves four more chances to pick up that crucial, and elusive, sixth win: OSU, Nebraska, Texas, and Texas Tech. Unfortunately, those are ALL road games.

But Art Briles is a believer, and so am I. Sic' Em!