Bleacher Report - Articles by Doug Kraus

Final Seat at the BCS Table: Ohio State or Boise State?

Doug Kraus — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:26:45 -0500

As we go into the final week of regular season and conference championship games, the BCS pictures is becoming clearer, but there are still a few unknowns.

It appears that the SEC will send two schools, Florida and Alabama, as will the Big 12 (South), Oklahoma and Texas. Missouri beating Oklahoma in the championship game changes everything, but for now assume that longshot won’t happen.

The Pac-10 sends USC, the Big Ten sends Penn State, The Big East sends Cincinnati, and the ACC sends the winner of Boston College and Virginia Tech.

Utah gets an automatic bid (MWC champion and ranked higher than #12). Boise State does not get an automatic bid for wining the WAC because only one automatic bid can be given to C-USA, MWC, WAC, MAC and Sun Belt collectively. BYU, TCU and Ball State are all ranked to low for consideration.

This leaves one slot open for either Ohio State or Boise State.

How do you decide between a 12-0 WAC champion and a 10-2 Big Ten co-champion? Let’s look at it from a few angles.

Quality Wins

Boise State has only one quality win this year and it was an early season, non-conference game.

At #17 Oregon 37-32 (Sept. 20)

Ohio State has three quality wins this year, all against Big Ten opponents. They also have two losses, though both to Top 3 teams.

At #18 Wisconsin 20-17 (Oct. 4)

At #20 Michigan State 45-7 (Oct. 18)

At #24 Northwestern 45-10 (Nov. 8)

Loss at #1 USC 3-35 (Sept. 13)

Loss to #3 Penn State 6-13 (Oct. 25)

Clearly Ohio State plays a much tougher schedule than Boise State does. The Big Ten has gotten a (deserved) bad rap the past few years for being weak, but even so, it is a much tougher schedule to play than the WAC.

Quality Wins goes to Ohio State.

BCS Bowl Performance

Ohio State has played is 4-2 in BCS bowl games with an average TV viewership rating of 14.72. Ohio State fans travel in droves, which guarantees a sell out no matter when or where they play a BCS bowl game.

· 1998 Sugar Bowl: (4) Ohio State 24, (6) Texas A&M 14

· 2002 Fiesta Bowl: (2) Ohio State 31, (1) Miami 24, 2 OT [TV rating 17.2] – National Champions

· 2003 Fiesta Bowl: (5) Ohio State 35, (10) Kansas State 28 [TV rating 8.7]

· 2005 Fiesta Bowl: (4) Ohio State 34, (6) Notre Dame 20 [TV rating 12.90]

· 2006 National Championship Game: (2) Florida 41, (1) Ohio State 14 [TV rating 17.40]

· 2007 National Championship Game: (2) LSU 38, (1) Ohio State 24 [TV rating 17.40]

Boise State has played in one BCS bowl game, which they won with a TV rating of 8.40. Boise State fans don’t travel in the same numbers as Ohio State fans, but that might change after the unforgettable 2006 Fiesta Bowl.

· 2006 Fiesta Bowl: (8) Boise State 43, (10) Oklahoma 42, OT [TV rating 8.40]

BCS performance (including TV viewership and “butts in the seats”) goes to Ohio State.

Rankings

Boise State ranks No. 9, ahead of Ohio State at No. 10 in the AP Ranking, The BCS Ranking and my own KPI.

AP Ranking

9. Boise State

10. Ohio State

BCS

9. Boise State .7034

10. Ohio State .6340

KPI (Kraus Performance Index)

9. Boise State 47.72

10. Ohio State 47.48

Rankings go to Boise State.

Conclusion

This is nearly a toss up. I think for many people the argument is Ohio State has stunk it up two years in a row and Boise State’s only BCS performance was one for the ages. Conversely, many people feel that one “BCS Buster” per year is enough, and Ohio State is the better team and the better choice.

BCS chooses Ohio State.

Top 10 Rankings: KPI Week 14

Doug Kraus — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 02:49:44 -0500

With the regular season over for most schools and only conference championships and bowl games left for the top ranked teams, here are my KPIs through Week 14.

The KPI (Kraus Performance Index) is a rating placed on each game played by the teams in the 6 BCS conferences plus a few of the BCS “Spoilers.” It is intended to gauge how well each team plays each week.

KPI is based on win/loss, margin of victory, total yardage (for/against), turnovers, and time of possession. It also factors in home/away, shutouts, opponents’ ranking, and playing non-BCS conference schools.

Here are the top teams average KPI through Week 14:

Rank	School	KPI	Wins	Losses
1	Florida	81.27	11	1
2	Oklahoma	77.26	11	1
3	USC	76.73	10	1
4	Alabama	75.14	12	0
5	Texas	72.56	11	1
6	Penn State	70.93	11	1
7	Texas Tech	62.17	11	1
8	Utah	48.39	12	0
9	Boise State	47.72	12	0
10	Ohio State	47.48	10	2

I also indexed the six BCS conferences:

Conference	KPI
Big 12	25.24
SEC	23.59
Big Ten	17.88
ACC	16.16
Big East	14.29
Pac-10	11.45

So what does this mean? To me it means that Florida and Alabama both head to a BCS bowl game and the Big 12 sends two schools as well. These won’t be determined until the BCS rankings come out, and it is possible that Missouri will win the championship game and completely screw this up. I think the ACC, Big East, Pac-10 and Big Ten only get one school into BCS bowls because both Utah and Boise State get the nod.

Ohio State could beat both Utah and Boise State (as well as Cincinnati and the ACC title game winner), but Utah and Boise State earned their way in. They both went undefeated and dominated their opponents most weeks. Plus, there is a lot of pressure to bring in BCS busters, especially given that great Boise State-Oklahoma game.

Just for fun, I decided to rank the top 10 and bottom 10 performances of the year.

The top 10 KPI games of the year:

Week	Team	Score	Opp.	Opp. Score	KPI
13	Oklahoma	65	Texas Tech	21	185.00
11	Texas Tech	56	Oklahoma St.	20	170.65
1	Alabama	34	Clemson	10	169.26
10	Florida	49	Georgia	10	164.21
7	Florida	51	LSU	21	159.28
9	Texas Tech	63	Kansas	21	156.94
3	USC	35	Ohio State	3	147.52
8	USC	69	Washington St.	0	141.63
8	Ohio State	45	Michigan St.	7	138.05
5	Alabama	41	Georgia	30	136.18

The bottom 10 KPI games of the year:

Week	Team	Score	Opp.	Opp. Score	KPI
2	Washington St.	3	California	66	(91.75)
13	Minnesota	0	Iowa	55	(86.43)
5	Washington State	14	Oregon	63	(82.30)
9	Washington	7	Notre Dame	33	(80.63)
10	Washington St.	0	Stanford	58	(80.38)
7	Washington St.	13	Oregon St.	66	(80.10)
13	Indiana	10	Purdue	62	(77.59)
3	UCLA	0	BYU	59	(68.51)
11	Washington St.	28	Arizona	59	(67.87)
13	North Carolina	10	North Carolina St.	41	(67.09)

Producing the KPI was a fun and fairly time-consuming exercise every week. The time was well spent as entering all the game statistics into my spreadsheet made me a much better informed fan.

I plan to continue to calculate the KPI through the end of the year—bowl games included. I will then recalibrate some of my calculations for next year and try it again.

Anyone interested in seeing the details of calculations, just drop send me an email. I am happy to send out the spreadsheet (in Excel 2007 format).

Could Game Day Superstitions Be for Naught?

Doug Kraus — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 01:28:08 -0400

In my very first article on Bleacher Report I wrote about some of my game day superstitions. I go through these every game day for fear that if I don’t, my team (Ohio State) will lose. Not only will they lose, but also they will lose because of my stupidity. Based on the comments I received, I am not the only one who goes through a game day checklist.

This college football season started out just like the past several. I made sure to get my Block O flag up on time every morning, wore the right game day gear, and drank the right beverages. I even got the bobble heads lined up in order and nodding before kickoff.

Then a strange thing happened. I eased up a bit on my superstitions. The flag didn’t get raised quite so early. I relegated my scarlet and gray striped boxer briefs to the trash. And guess what? The Buckeyes won anyway.

Could it be that maybe, just maybe, all my ritual behaviors did not have an effect on the outcomes of the games? How could that be? Doesn’t make any sense. Sure, I had been in Columbus for the Ohio game and they won. I didn’t go to the Shoe as I didn’t want to push my luck that far, but I was in Columbus and they did win the game.

September 13th. It might as well have been Friday the 13. In preparation for the big USC match up in LA I did everything right. I even stepped up my game and carried my buckeye in my pocket for days, wore my red OSU rubber bracelet. I even considered opening up that box of Buckeye Heroes cereal with AJ Hawk on it and chowing down on the sugary, chemical laced morsels.

Result: It looked like a combination of the last two national championship games combined. Complete and utter defeat.

Oddly I wasn’t dejected. In fact a sense of calm came over me. The pressure to do everything right faded away as quickly as OSU’s national championship hopes for the year.

The next Saturday OSU played the other men of Troy. I got up, fed the dogs and cats, made some coffee, and got online to read bleacher report. I almost forgot to get up the flag. I ran errands instead of watching dreamy Kirk for two hours. And lo and behold, the Buckeyes won.

The next week they did it again against their first Big Ten opponent Minnesota. They did it with little or no help from me.

Then came the biggest conference game of the year according to the experts. The Buckeyes were heading into Camp Randall Stadium, at night, to play a seriously pissed off Badger team that had just laid an egg in the Big House. They would need all the help I could offer.

I didn’t get the flag up until almost noon. I didn’t get my OSU shirt on until after running some morning errands. God only knows what pair of underwear or socks I had on. No wristband. No buckeye in my pocket. Crazy. Reckless.

After plunking down $129 for ESPN GamePlan to get the game we settled in to watch. I offered my wife a beer and she asked me which kind she should be drinking. I replied it didn’t matter. What, it didn’t matter?

You know what… it didn’t matter. I sat relatively calmly watching Pryor turn into a man right before my eyes on that final drive. No Buckeye crushed in my palm—they were doing it all on their own.

I feel free of the bonds that have enslaved me every game day. I can do what I want, when I want and just enjoy the games. Tressel and the boys are on their own to win with no help or hindrance from me.

Of course, should they get in a jam I still have fast access to all my superstitions. You never know.

College Football Kraus Index: KPI Week 5

Doug Kraus — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 02:44:53 -0400

College Football Kraus Index: Week 5

Teaser:

After taking a few weeks off to adjust and re-adjust the calculations, the Kraus Performance Index is back after week 5 play.

I took a couple of weeks off to fiddle with my calculations and I think the Kraus Performance Index (KPI) is now a much better indicator of who played well, and who stunk it up, each week. Again, this is an indicator of weekly performance and not a ranking of who are the best teams.

I pared down the data to only track the teams in the six BCS conferences, Notre Dame (due to their special BCS bowl rules) and the remaining “BCS Busters”. I narrowed this list down to Utah, BYU, Boise State and Ball State. Fresno State and East Carolina dropped out due to their losses.

Conference Performance

First off, lets take a look at how each conference has done with their out of conference play. SEC fans should be happy to see that their conference leads in both KPI and win-loss percent. The KPI is the average KPI for all out of conference games.

Conference	KPI	Wins	Losses	Win %
SEC	28.74	27	5	84%
Big 12	27.71	38	10	79%
Big Ten	22.44	31	9	78%
ACC	13.45	26	10	72%
Pac 10	12.00	20	11	50%
Big East	10.21	13	13	65%

I don’t think that these index scores are too surprising. The ACC, Pac-10 and Big East have not played well out of conference. Indiana’s loss to Ball State, Purdue and Michigan losing to Notre Dame and Ohio State’s debacle at USC all cost the Big Ten index points.

Team Performance

If week 5 is any indication, it looks like this season will be every bit as crazy as last year in the rankings. Upsets were everywhere. USC, Florida and Wisconsin lost to unranked opponents. Alabama stunned Georgia at home. Seveal other top 25 teams also lost. This is the stuff that makes College Football some much more fun than the NFL.

So, without further ado here are the KPI rankings for both week 5 and the season in total. Note that 11 teams did not play this week.

Team	week 5
Alabama	134.83
Oregon State	116.78
Oregon	98.29
Texas	85.95
South Florida	79.38
Penn State	77.39
Mississippi	73.21
Oklahoma	67.74
Duke	62.13
Pittsburgh	61.08
Kentucky	57.72
Michigan State	57.44
Michigan	54.87
West Virginia	53.10
Maryland	52.17
Virginia Tech	51.95
Notre Dame	50.65
LSU	50.55
Ohio State	47.98
California	47.06
Ball State	45.37
Northwestern	45.13
Florida State	44.32
Oklahoma State	41.72
North Carolina	41.00
South Carolina	37.82
Stanford	36.73
Auburn	34.77
Connecticut	32.82
Cincinnati	29.31
Kansas State	27.27
Texas A&M	23.71
Rutgers	19.86
Boston College	18.69
Utah	12.73
Wisconsin	(8.41)
Tennessee	(11.74)
Florida	(14.89)
Louisville	(15.83)
Illinois	(18.09)
Georgia	(20.39)
Mississippi State	(20.74)
Minnesota	(22.68)
Miami (FL)	(24.31)
UCLA	(27.29)
Washington	(27.31)
Iowa	(27.71)
Clemson	(27.78)
USC	(30.97)
Colorado	(31.57)
Arkansas	(32.52)
Nebraska	(32.71)
Syracuse	(37.09)
Virginia	(40.52)
North Carolina State	(41.18)
Purdue	(42.17)
Indiana	(43.05)
Wake Forest	(46.84)
Washington State	(82.30)
Arizona	DNP
Arizona State	DNP
Baylor	DNP
Boise State	DNP
BYU	DNP
Georgia Tech	DNP
Iowa State	DNP
Kansas	DNP
Missouri	DNP
Texas Tech	DNP
Vanderbilt	DNP

Here are the KPI’s for the season in total.

Team	Season Avg
Alabama	95.01
USC	72.53
Penn State	66.51
Texas	60.61
Oklahoma	59.23
LSU	54.05
BYU	53.88
South Florida	50.35
Missouri	49.41
California	45.85
Oregon	45.46
Kentucky	43.45
Vanderbilt	43.32
Arizona	43.04
Florida	42.65
Oklahoma State	42.36
Ball State	41.66
Utah	40.96
Connecticut	College Football Kraus Index: Week Two Doug Kraus — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 00:59:41 -0400 In Week One I devised an index that measured weekly team performance. I have tweaked the computations slightly for Week Two and will continue to tweak the formula until I feel it is just right. Since this is semi-subjective, there is no perfect formula—just like the BCS. Index numbers are on a sliding scale, negatives generally mean a loss and positives generally mean a win. The further from zero the better (or worse) the team performed. This week, let's start off with some conference statistics which I did not have for Week One. The first is how each conference has performed through the first two weeks. I think these numbers are directionally correct as they line up with out-of-conference winning percentiles and whom the losses were against. Conference Average SEC 1.42 Big 12 1.38 Big Ten 1.28 Pac-10 0.94 MWC 0.05 C-USA (0.00) ACC (1.22) MAC (1.25) 1-A Indep (1.59) Big East (1.68) WAC (4.20) Sun Belt (4.76) In Week Two, East Carolina and Vanderbilt's performances put them at the top of the index. Washington State is dead last, which isn't too surprising, but Miami (FL) being so far down the list tells me that I need to do some more work on my index formulation (though the score was lopsided, as were total yards). Several teams did not play, some due to Gustav. Team TOTAL 1 East Carolina 5.65 2 Vanderbilt 3.31 3 California 3.18 4 Iowa 2.94 5 Kansas 2.89 6 Arizona State 2.41 7 Florida 2.29 8 Penn State 2.26 9 Oregon 2.20 10 Arkansas State 2.17 11 Air Force 2.14 12 Florida State 2.12 13 TCU 2.06 14 Oklahoma 2.03 15 Wisconsin 2.02 16 Tulsa 1.95 17 Georgia 1.93 18 Minnesota 1.86 19 Kansas State 1.84 20 Indiana 1.79 21 Wake Forest 1.74 22 Middle Tennessee 1.71 23 Akron 1.68 24 Baylor 1.68 25 Arizona 1.68 26 Missouri 1.66 27 Utah 1.65 28 Ohio State 1.65 29 Nebraska 1.58 30 Michigan State 1.56 31 Virginia 1.55 32 Louisville 1.55 33 Michigan 1.53 34 Texas 1.42 35 Iowa State 1.39 36 Kentucky 1.38 37 Arkansas 1.37 38 BYU 1.36 39 South Florida 1.33 40 Texas Tech 1.32 41 Oklahoma State 1.32 42 Auburn 1.32 43 Pittsburgh 1.17 44 Ball State 1.14 45 Mississippi State 1.11 46 Georgia Tech 1.10 47 Florida Atlantic 1.10 48 Connecticut 1.06 49 Alabama 1.06 50 Western Kentucky 1.02 51 Texas A&M 1.00 52 Northwestern 0.98 53 Hawaii 0.98 54 Virginia Tech 0.97 55 Notre Dame 0.92 56 Clemson 0.92 57 Illinois 0.86 58 Purdue 0.79 59 Western Michigan 0.74 60 Rice 0.73 61 Idaho 0.70 62 Southern Methodist 0.67 63 North Carolina State 0.54 64 Colorado State 0.34 65 Colorado 0.33 66 Mississippi (0.65) 67 Duke (0.76) 68 Washington (0.91) 69 South Carolina (0.93) 70 Louisiana-Monroe (0.97) 71 New Mexico (1.05) 72 Nevada (1.10) 73 Boston College (1.13) 74 UCF (1.14) 75 Northern Illinois (1.26) 76 Memphis (1.26) 77 Southern Miss (1.46) 78 UAB (1.49) 79 Temple (1.50) 80 Houston (1.50) 81 San Diego State (1.66) 82 Kent State (1.69) 83 Buffalo (1.70) 84 Navy (1.82) 85 Ohio (1.95) 86 UNLV (1.99) 87 Maryland (2.00) 88 Syracuse (2.10) 89 Tulane (2.15) 90 Cincinnati (2.16) 91 Stanford (2.29) 92 Utah State (2.52) 93 Miami (OH) (2.57) 94 San Jose State (2.59) 95 Toledo (2.63) 96 UTEP (2.66) 97 Oregon State (2.72) 98 Bowling Green (2.74) 99 North Texas (2.81) 100 Central Michigan (3.32) 101 Marshall (3.61) 102 Eastern Michigan (4.00) 103 Army (6.12) 104 Wyoming (8.44) 105 Miami (FL) (8.53) 106 West Virginia (8.72) 107 Louisiana Tech (15.47) 108 Florida International (22.44) 109 Washington State (22.73) 110 North Carolina DNP 111 Rutgers DNP 112 UCLA DNP 113 USC DNP 114 Tennessee DNP 115 Louisiana-Lafayette DNP 116 Boise State DNP 117 Fresno State DNP 118 New Mexico State DNP 119 Troy DNP 120 LSU DNP Again, please let me know just how far off you think these rankings seem to you. Also, if anybody can tell me how to build better-looking, easier to read tables, I would appreciate it. College Football Kraus Index: Week One Doug Kraus — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 10:49:07 -0400 Week One of college football is in the books. I was going to write an article about Big Ten football, or, even more specifically, about Ohio State, but, let's be honest, it has been done to death and you SEC folks have already let me know in no uncertain terms what you think of that kind of article. Being a numbers kind of a guy, I decided to take a different approach, and if this thing flies (comments please) I will make it a weekly article. The Kraus Index I am indexing (not ranking) every Division 1-A (Bowl Championship Subdivision) football team each week based on its performance that week. This is not a ranking of who is the best or who will win the BCS, though rankings do play a part in the calculation. Each team receives a index score based on how well they did that week. The calculation takes into account points scored and given up, turnovers, yards gained and given up, and the ranking and conference of the opponent. I decided not to go any further in depth, as I like to try to maintain the semblance of a life. This index acts as a barometer as to how your team did in respect to all the other teams. For instance, OSU did blank the Youngstown State Penguins, but because of Y-St.'s conference and division affiliation, the Buckeyes only score a 2.09 index. The leader is Alabama, which scored 5.57 for soundly beating a top-rated team. How do I know that my methodology is sound? I don't, but it is my way of figuring this out. Second, take a look at the ESPN Bottom 10 and line it up with the bottom of my list. Pretty darn close. Based on comments, I will possibly tweak my methodology in future weeks. I might even divulge the calculations I used to come up with the index scores. Conference Average Scores: Conference Average SEC 1.55 Big 12 1.22 Pac 10 0.81 Big Ten 0.79 C-USA 0.23 MWC 0.19 MAC (0.78) 1-A Indep (1.72) ACC (1.90) Big East (2.16) Sun Belt (4.53) WAC (4.84) Team Scores: Team TOTAL Alabama 5.57 East Carolina 3.84 Missouri 3.58 Arizona 3.57 UCLA 3.56 Bowling Green 2.99 USC 2.81 Florida 2.75 South Carolina 2.71 Oregon 2.53 Auburn 2.52 Wake Forest 2.48 Eastern Michigan 2.46 Boston College 2.45 Texas 2.43 Kansas 2.34 Kentucky 2.34 Southern Miss 2.27 Oklahoma State 2.26 Kansas State 2.20 Ohio State 2.09 Northwestern 2.08 TCU 2.04 Rice 2.00 Arkansas State 2.00 Tulsa 1.94 Buffalo 1.88 Houston 1.87 Fresno State 1.80 Oklahoma 1.77 UCF 1.73 Indiana 1.67 Cincinnati 1.65 UNLV 1.65 Penn State 1.64 Utah 1.61 Air Force 1.59 Temple 1.58 Colorado 1.52 Iowa 1.51 Vanderbilt 1.51 Boise State 1.51 Nebraska 1.51 Wisconsin 1.47 California 1.46 Miami (FL) 1.45 Nevada 1.43 South Florida 1.42 Louisiana Tech 1.41 Stanford 1.39 Mississippi 1.33 Georgia Tech 1.31 Troy 1.28 Connecticut 1.28 Navy 1.17 Duke 1.12 Ball State 1.03 Georgia 1.02 LSU 1.02 Iowa State 0.99 Minnesota 0.93 Central Michigan 0.92 Texas Tech 0.86 Arizona State 0.81 Maryland 0.80 BYU 0.79 Wyoming 0.77 Marshall 0.74 West Virginia 0.67 San Jose State 0.27 North Carolina 0.21 Arkansas 0.11 Tennessee (0.52) Illinois (0.84) Northern Illinois (0.95) Oregon State (0.96) Michigan State (1.01) Ohio (1.27) Memphis (1.48) Michigan (1.61) Middle Tennessee (1.66) Mississippi State (1.71) Virginia Tech (1.73) Akron (1.76) Texas A&M (1.81) Pittsburgh (1.86) Western Michigan (1.97) Utah State (2.12) Colorado State (2.20) Miami (OH) (2.36) Western Kentucky (2.47) Clemson (2.94) UAB (2.97) Baylor (3.02) Washington State (3.09) Syracuse (3.17) UTEP (3.26) Louisiana-Lafayette (3.36) Rutgers (3.73) Army (3.85) Florida International (3.92) Washington (4.03) Southern Methodist (4.10) San Diego State (4.68) Florida Atlantic (5.24) Hawaii (5.98) North Texas (7.58) Virginia (8.03) Kent State (11.95) Louisville (13.51) Louisiana-Monroe (17.77) North Carolina State (18.06) Idaho (37.07) Teams that did not play: Florida State, Purdue, Notre Dame, Tulane, Toledo, New Mexico, and New Mexico State. Big Ten Predictions for 2008: In-Depth Records and Bowl Matchups Doug Kraus — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 05:04:16 -0400 I’m going out on a limb and predicting not just the final 2008 season standings in the Big Ten, but also pre-conference records, conference game picks, and projected bowl appearances. I will even throw in a couple of projected bowl matchups. I figure that there is no better or easier way for readers to decide just how off base I am. Before getting into the details, let me preface things by saying that this is going to be a down year for the Big Ten. Yes, I said it: a down year for the Big Ten. Ohio State is going to be even better than last year, and Wisconsin is going to be a very solid team. Sadly, the second tier is going to be really hit and miss. I think Illinois and Michigan State are going to be good and even better next year. Iowa hit bottom last year and will be better this year, but they still have a long way to go. Michigan and Penn State are both huge question marks for me, mostly due to coaching issues (Rich Rodriguez has a whole new staff and scheme, and Joe Pa has…?). I think Purdue is stuck in limbo along with Indiana and Northwestern. Minnesota is going to be just plain awful. Preseason Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin run the table and are all 4-0 going into conference play. This includes OSU winning at USC on Sep. 13 and Illinois winning their opener against Missouri. Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Michigan State all go 3-1, which includes both Michigan and Michigan State beating Notre Dame. Unfortunately, Purdue will lose to Notre Dame (and Oregon) and go 2-2. Sure, there are plenty of cupcakes thrown into this preseason pastry case, but the Big Ten beats USC, Missouri, Pittsburgh, and Fresno State and takes two out of three from Notre Dame. It's not as tough of an out-of-conference slate as the Pac-10, but it's every bit as tough as what the SEC will play. Conference Play The following is a list of each team, in order of final Big Ten standing, with their record, conference record, and projected bowl game. Ohio State: 12-0 (8-0), BCS National Championship Ohio State runs the table, beating (in order) Minnesota, (at) Wisconsin, Purdue, (at) Michigan State, Penn State, (at) Northwestern, (at) Illinois, and Michigan. They do not play Indiana or Iowa. I predict that the Buckeyes win the National Championship, but I can’t even narrow their opponent down to the SEC, Big 12, or Big East, let alone which team. OK, my top two picks are WVU, due to a weak schedule, and Oklahoma because they just might be that good this year. Wisconsin: 11-1 (7-1), Rose Bowl Wisconsin finally puts it all together and is a year-end top eight team. That's right: They will actually live up to their potential in 2008. After starting the conference schedule by beating Michigan in the Big House, and then losing to Ohio State at home, they sweep the remaining six games. In order, they are Penn State, (at) Iowa, Illinois, (at) Michigan State, (at) Indiana, and Minnesota. They do not play Northwestern or Purdue. Having their toughest games early, plus having the last week off, is not going to help their chances of beating USC in the Rose Bowl. Michigan State: 8-4 (5-3), Outback Bowl Coach Mark Dantonio gets his Spartans over the hump this year and back to respectability. Javon Ringer will run for 1,500 yards and by mid-November will be praying for a 50-day rest before the Outback Bowl. Dantonio and staff need to leverage this swing in momentum and the coaching changes at Michigan to recruit better in state. They will beat Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, and Purdue, but lose to Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin. They do not play Illinois or Minnesota. This gets them into the Outback Bowl. Illinois: 8-4 (5-3), Capital One Bowl No doubt about it, Illinois is making a move to be a legitimate contender for the Big Ten crown. Ron Zook is starting to lure good in-state talent, thus keeping it out of the hands of Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and Notre Dame. Juice Williams having a good year is key, as is bringing up a couple of young running backs. Starting conference play at Penn State and then at Michigan is going to be killer. They will beat Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Penn State, but will lose to Michigan Ohio State, and Wisconsin. They do not play Michigan State or Purdue. They will play in the Capital One Bowl. Penn State: 9-3 (5-3), Alamo Bowl Could this be Joe Pa’s last year? Yes. Given all the hubbub going on with the players' off-the-field “antics” and the fact that they have be idling for a few years means it is finally time for a regime change in Happy Valley. I think the players sense, it and it will affect them somewhat on the field. The Nittany Lions beat Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue. They will lose to Illinois at home to kick off conference play, and then at Ohio State and at Wisconsin. It's off to the Alamo Bowl for Joe Pa’s last game. Iowa: 7-5 (4-4), Champs Sports Bowl Iowa is this year’s Colorado, what with all the scandal in the clubhouse. Let’s hope most of it isn’t true, and they can get back down to business. They are certainly going to need as few distractions as possible this year, as Kirk Ferentz is squarely on the hot seat. Iowa luckily does not play either Michigan or Ohio State this year. They will beat Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Purdue but lose to Illinois, Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin. This is a good enough effort to play in the Champs Sports Bowl. Michigan: 7-5 (4-4), Motor City Bowl This is going to be Michigan’s worst season in years—but a bad Michigan year is still better than most teams’ best seasons. They have a lot of challenges ahead, and I think by midseason they will have many of the kinks worked out. They lost a lot of talent and have a whole new coaching staff and offensive schemes. They probably will lose to ND, but only because it is early in the season. In conference I pick them to beat Illinois (only because IL plays Penn St. the previous week), Minnesota, Northwestern, and Purdue. They will lose games to Penn State and Wisconsin, plus both of their big rivalries, Michigan State and Ohio State. It is too bad they don’t play Indiana or Iowa this year, as those are ones they probably would win. At least they get to stay home and play in the Motor City Bowl. Purdue: 5-7 (3-5), not bowl eligible Normally Purdue gets out to a fast start and tanks towards the end of the season. This year I think they struggle through the whole thing. I expect them to lose to both Oregon and ND in pre-conference play and Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Penn State in conference play. In-conference, their wins will come against Indiana, Minnesota, and Northwestern. Luckily for the Boilermakers, they do not play Illinois or Wisconsin this year. Northwestern: 5-7 (2-6), not bowl eligible This is not going to be one of the rare miracle years for the Wildcats. Everyone has figured out their offensive scheme, and they don’t have enough talent to outrun or out-throw their opponents. The defense should be fairly solid, but not solid enough to hold their opponents enough for their struggling offense to outscore them. Northwestern beats Indiana and Minnesota but loses to Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Purdue. They don’t play Penn State or Wisconsin this year, which is good, because they would lose in both of those matchups. Indiana: 4-8 (1-7), not bowl eligible I could be generous with this prediction, as they could just as easily head into the conference at 2-2 as 3-1. The good news is that the Hoosiers beat Minnesota and don’t play either Michigan or Ohio State this year. The bad news is they lose to Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern, Penn State, and Wisconsin. Minnesota: 3-9 (0-8), not bowl eligible The Gophers' new stadium cannot come fast enough to save them from being the Big Ten doormat. This team is going to be bad and get blown out week after week. Like Indiana, they could go 2-2 instead of 3-1 in pre-conference play, which would put them at 2-10 at the end of the season. They win no games in conference. If they had to play Penn State and Michigan State this year, those games would certainly be losses as well. Ohio State Football: Game Day Superstitions Doug Kraus — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 05:37:22 -0400 Here we are, less than two weeks until kickoff for the 2008 college football season and I couldn't be more excited. I can already smell the five days of games to kick off the season. My countdown clock says three months and four days until Ohio State plays Michigan—but I'm getting ahead of myself. It is time to make sure I have everything in order so that I am not to blame if the Buckeyes lose a game. Here is my list of superstitious activities. Some may be stupid (OK, they all probably are) but I'll bet you have some that are even dumber. 1. Never, ever, ever go back to Columbus to watch a game in The Shoe unless you know for sure you can't possibly cause them to lose. Remember a few years ago when OSU was undefeated and they laid an egg against Michigan State? Yep, I was there. My fault. I take full responsibility. 2. Get the "Block O" flag up early in the morning. I used to make sure to fly it exactly at 7:00 am on game day. I've eased off a bit, allowing myself to put it up any time between 6:45 and 7:15. I also hum "Buckeye Battle Cry" while doing this. 3. Wear the right game gear! Nothing screws up your team more than getting this wrong. I spent about $75 on a No. 25 red OSU team jersey just in time to wear it and cause the Buckeyes' worst loss in years to the Gators in the National Championship. Why did I think I could just throw that sucker on without game testing it against Kent State or Indiana? Dumb, rookie mistake. I thought about selling this jersey on eBay, but decided that it might be inherently evil so it sits in the back of my closet thinking about the wrongs it has created. Don't get me started on game day underwear or the extra effort put forth on Michigan game day (no yellow or blue of any kind). 4. Drink the right beverages. I normally am a big micro and home brew drinker, but on game day that all changes. It is hugely important to drink PBR, Genny Creams, and Rolling Rocks. Old Style is also acceptable. That is always backed up with an expensive bottle of tequila—shots after each score. This rule changes based on opponents and kick-off time. Some games can and will get WAY out of hand. I also have a friend who drank claret wine during the games. That was almost as wrong as Clarett himself. BONUS: If OSU wins big and we kill the bottle of tequila, it gets a Buckeye helmet sticker and goes up on the basement shelf next to the other bottles and the Woody, Tressel and Bo (face down) bobble-heads. 5. Seating arrangements are also key. I had a friend (yep, same wine guy) that had to sit on the same corner of my big sectional. The day he came over and it was replaced by a new couch he completely freaked out. Also, the front row is for OSU grads only and it trails off to the back where my Gopher and Badger friends sit. For the Michigan game, my super stinky Michigan friends are allowed in the house but their kids all get their pictures taken wearing buckeye hats. 6. Just before kickoff I make sure to get Coaches Woody and Tressel bobble-heads nodding yes and smack the crap out of the Bo bobble-head until he falls over. If lucky, Bo gets chipped in some way. He has been known to land in the toilet and the diaper genie as needed during the Michigan game. OK, I just went back and proof read this article. My wife might be correct in that I do need to get a life. Nah, this is my life, and between late August and early January I wouldn't have it any other way!

Bleacher Report - Articles by Doug Kraus

Final Seat at the BCS Table: Ohio State or Boise State?

Top 10 Rankings: KPI Week 14

Could Game Day Superstitions Be for Naught?

College Football Kraus Index: KPI Week 5

College Football Kraus Index: Week Two

College Football Kraus Index: Week One

Big Ten Predictions for 2008: In-Depth Records and Bowl Matchups

Ohio State Football: Game Day Superstitions