Bleacher Report - Articles by Jay Schrimpf

Why Your ACC College Football Team Will Fail

Jay Schrimpf — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 00:04:56 -0400

With the start of the college football season upon us, hope abounds with every team and all fans. No one has a loss. Every team, in the competitive ACC, has a chance to win the conference. The fans of each team are speaking of why they will win. There are special players on each team and new coaches with great ideas. Everyone has that "big" game circeld on the calendar that will determine the sucess of their team. For just a bit, I am going to point out why each team in the ACC will actually NOT do as well as excepted. So here goes...........

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Clemson Football: The Strangest of Hurdles

Jay Schrimpf — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 03:07:45 -0400

Every preseason, a team must address what obstacles need be overcome in order to have a successful season.

In some cases, it could be the schedule, as is the case for Miami this year—The Canes get Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma as their first four opponents. It sure would have been helpful to at least spread those games throughout the schedule.

In the case of FSU, there are no running backs that are proven.

Clemson also has its issues in the preseason.

After looking over the Tigers' "problem areas," I came up with a few pertinent ones. The most significant problem out of the Clemson camp is a lack of a place-kicker. In close games, a place-kicker can be very important, as Clemson found out in 1999 and in 2006.

Of course, there is the quarterback controversy brewing (a subject in and of itself). The Tigers are also going to have to find at least two more receivers to help out Jacoby Ford.

But these problems pale in comparison to what head coach Dabo Swinney could face on Sept. 11, the day after the Georgia Tech game—a game I am convinced the Tigers will lose (unless the Jackets turn the ball over)—the day Clemson's season really starts.

The Tigers will be 0-1 in conference play and still in control of their own destiny. However, a national TV audience will have witnessed the loss and Clemson fans will begin to file numerous complaints. I suspect the first complaint will be that Swinney started the wrong quarterback.

The next comment will be that Clemson hired the wrong man and that nothing has changed.

I suspect we will also hear how soft the team is. Every Clemson fan will have a theory and complaint about the loss.

Because the game was on a Thursday, ESPN will be showing the highlights all day Friday and the game will be a topic for discussion on Saturday.

The salt will be rubbed in and it will sting.

If the Clemson coaching staff and the team itself can ignore the criticism and focus on Boston College nine days later, they should be fine (after all, if they beat BC, Maryland, and Wake Forest, they'll enter the Miami game 3-1 in conference play and in a good position to win the division).

But, this is an inexperienced team without a veteran coach. Moving on after the Georgia Tech loss could prove difficult. For a young coach and three young quarterbacks, the hardest hurdle to jump this year could be the Clemson fans.

Crimes of Emotion and Perception

Jay Schrimpf — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 16:07:22 -0400

Life is not fair. At a young age we learn this. However, we are also taught that you will be rewarded for your achievements. Simply put, get the job done and you will be compensated.

And then there is college football.

It seems in the landscape of college football, no one is happy. If you win seven games this year, you want eight next year, and nine the after that. Of course 10 wins and the National title follow this pattern.

If the team fails to meet these expectations, attainable or not, the coach then is placed on the "hot seat." Which simply means, it's only a matter of time before the next coach comes in with promises of a National title and Conference title.

We will take a look at four programs who elected to dismiss their coaches. As we examine these programs and coaches, we will focus on the data. Simply put, we will look at games won and lost.

I am sure there are "reasons" or fan and administration "perceptions" about the direction of each of these programs under the dismissed coach. I also concede that these perceptions drive ticket sales and booster income that can not be ignored. But if one can remove the emotional factor from the equation; you will see the winning percentages will justify our "lucky" four coaches keeping their job.

Miami

Larry Coker went 60-15 while at Miami. He won a National title and also had three Conference Championships to boot. He won 71 percent of the time when he coached against Bobby Bowden and FSU. He also beat the Gators every time he went up against them. Yet in the end this was not enough. He had "lost control of his team" and the direction in which the team was headed in was not acceptable by the standards of Miami.

The 'Canes saw fit to hire up and coming Randy Shannon. An "emotional" fix to the problems of player control and morale. After all, Shannon would never allow a 'Canes team to drop to a seven win season. Shannon inked a four-year deal that would earn him slightly more than $1 million per season. After two years, Shannon has an overall record of 12-13 and sports a 37.5 winning percentage in conference play. The preseason magazines have coach Shannon on that "hot" seat.

Tennessee

Phillip Fulmer was Volunteer football. A loss clearly hurt him and you could see that in his eyes. His teams were prepared and most of the time they won their games on Saturday. He posted an incredible 152-52 record that included one National title, two Conference titles, and seven Divisional titles. He became the poster boy for "what have you done for me lately," when dismissed at the end of the year.

In 2007, Tennessee won the Divisional title. The Volunteers played LSU in the SEC Championship Game and lost by just seven points. LSU went on to win the National title. Tennessee followed that game up with a win over a good Wisconsin team in a Bowl. However the short term memory memory of fans and the administration seemed to be the reason for Fulmer's dismissal in 2008.

Tennessee elected to hire Lane Kiffin, age 33, to replace Phil Fulmer. Kiffin signed a deal for six years that would pay him $2 million in the first year. The contract would grade up to average him $2.375 million over the course of the next six years. That is not bad for a coach with an overall record of 5-15 and no college football head coaching credentials.

If you need to ask if college football and the professional football are different, I can give you the number for a university in South Bend. A very young guy to be put in the Tennessee pressure cooker.

Clemson

Tommy Bowden never had a losing season at Clemson. His teams were always competitive, until a fiasco in Atlanta last year (which had more to do with the pundits having them over-ranked).

Bowden won over 60 percent of his games and was 7-2 against the hated Gamecocks. His teams went to Bowl games and were always in the hunt for the Divisional title.

Bowden was dismissed because he simply could not win a Divisional title like Clemson fans say they were accustomed to winning. But in the decade of the 90's, Clemson won just one ACC crown. That hardly sounds like a team that is accustomed to winning titles. The odd thing was that Clemson fired him in mid season after a Thursday night road loss to Wake Forest (Thursday night road teams lose almost 80 percent of the time). Wake Forest owns a three-game winning streak over FSU and was the last team from the Atlantic to win the ACC, and it was just a five point loss.

The perception was Clemson should win this game. Do you see that little word creeping up again, "perception?" In any case, Clemson was in a week of turmoil leading up to the Georgia Tech game, a game they lost by four points. Keep your coach, win that game, and guess who is playing for the Conference crown?

Clemson hired the emotional choice, Dabbo Swinney. A position coach would now agree to a five-year deal worth $1 million per year. His relationship with CJ Spiller and the rest of the players along with his incredible ability to recruit should hold him for a while. He did finish the season out 4-2 with losses to GT and FSU.

Auburn

Tommy Tuberville was let go as the Tigers had a sub-par season in 2008. However, the overall numbers he posted were outstanding. He went 85-40, had an undefeated season, one Conference title, five Divisional titles, won 65 percent of Conference games, eight Bowl appearances, and beat Alabama an incredible 70 percent of the time.

There are some questions if Tuberville was dismissed or resigned; but usually if someone resigns they are not awarded with $5.1 million. Certainly, these numbers are impressive.

Auburn then went and hired emotional favorite and former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik. Gene Chizik and his overall 5-19 (2007 and 2008) record from Iowa State will be making $2 million per year. Not bad for someone who could not get the job done at Iowa State. I know it is hard to win at Iowa State, but consider the most wins Chizik was able to muster in any one season was a total of three.

In 2000, Iowa State won nine; in 2001 Iowa State won seven; in 2002 Iowa State won seven; in 2004 Iowas State won seven; in 2005 Iowa State won seven, and in 2006 Iowa State won four. I am not sure the data warrants the hire or the fire at Auburn.

Tuberville, Bowden, Fulmer and Coker did nothing but win on a consistent basis. But for reasons that deal more with perception and emotion they were all dismissed. In the end, winning was not enough.

In this "McDonald's World" of having it now, I want a new coach, a national title and a hamburger please...

ACC Football: Fear The Turtle... Or Not?

Jay Schrimpf — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 00:32:11 -0400

With all the parity in the ACC in recent years, everyone seems to have a "sexy" pick for the Atlantic division in 2009. Certainly FSU has the talent year in and year out to win. Clemson is always a team that contends. NC State and Tom O'Brien are on everyone's "watch" list this year. Then there is Wake Forest, they show us what fundamental football can do. Of course Boston College has been the divisional champion two years running. The parity is incredible.

However, there is one team missing. Where are the Terps?

No one is talking about Ralph's reptiles. In 2008, the Terps were an afterthought when the season began. Coach Friedgen had his troops poised to win the division only to finish 1-3 in the last four conference games, including a blow out loss to FSU at home.

When Ralph Friedgen arrived on the scene as head coach in 2001, he took a 2000 squad that was 5-6 and transformed them into the ACC champions. In 2001, 2002 and 2003 the Turtles went 31-8! That is a winning percentage of 79.4! What happened?

No one knows. The Turtles have simply not gotten back. There are many "reasons" fans give us but in the end, it comes down to wins and losses.

Friedgen enters his ninth year as head coach and the pundits do not give the Terps much of a chance. In fact, since the end of the 2003 season, Maryland is just 18-22 in conference play. With nine starters coming back, fewest in the ACC, things could get rocky for the Terps in 2009. The offensive line is being overhauled and the defense just has four starters back. Keep in mind this was a defense that was not feared by any stretch of the imagination.

There is a lot of talk about coaches this year in the ACC. Will Bobby Bowden retire? Jimbo Fisher is waiting to take over. What were the Tigers thinking? With all the people they could have hired, why did they hire a receiver's coach? How long will 'Cane fans except average seasons before Shannon is shown the door? How long do you thing Paul Johson can run that gimmick offense? Al Groh better win this year or he is gone. How long before Duke's Cutcliffe does what Jim Grobe did at Wake? Of course there are more, but no one talks about Ralph Friedgen. I am not sure this is a good thing.

I get a sense that Maryland fans have given up and are waiting on the "new coach." Do not get me wrong, I know the fans want to win and there is no question about that. Coaches at the same school for more than ten years is a thing of the past. Bobby Bowden and Frank Beamers are "freaks" if you will. That type of coach does not exist today. Mark Richt is the dean of SEC coaches. He enters his ninth year at Georgia. In the ACC, if we omit the two legends, there are three coaches in their ninth year: Groh, Grobe, and Friedgen. Care to take any wagers on which two are on the endangered list entering this year?

In today's world of instant gratification and coaches leap frogging after nine wins; a coach with tenure of 10 years is rare. Fearing the turtle is not something teams will be doing a lot of this year. In the end, Maryland will have a new coach in 2010.

In College Football, Defining Games Create The Season

Jay Schrimpf — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 02:13:43 -0400

There is usually one game that defines a season—one game in which the ball bounced your way, the official blew a call, or a gutty effort propelled your team to a great season. It happens every year in that one game, where the fans look back and say "what if" or "what a great game."

Last year, for Clemson, the season was defined at home in the fifth game. Clemson led Maryland 17-6 at the half. The only points the Terps could muster were provided by two fumble recoveries deep in Clemson territory. The Terps converted these Clemson miscues to field goals. In fact, Maryland had just 74 yards in total offense during the first half.

The Tigers were sporting a 3-1 record, 1-0 in conference, entering the game against Maryland. The embarrassment to Alabama was beginning to fade and theories developing about the meltdown in Atlanta. Then came the meltdown of the season!

Early in the second half, a Clemson 45 plus yard screen pass for a touchdown was called back. Had the play stood, the Tigers would have gone up 24-6 and the game would have probably been over. But it did not work out that way; the Tigers imploded.

The Terps went on to score 14 points and blanked the Tigers for the rest of the game en-route to a close win. The Tigers found themselves 1-1 in the conference and the fan base angry and bewildered. The season had turned, turmoil had set in, and Clemson followed the shocking loss with an uninspired five-point loss to Wake Forest. Not long after the loss to the Deacs, Tommy Bowden was dismissed and a divisional crown became an afterthought.

The defining play for Clemson in the 2008 season was a holding call that nullified a touchdown and ultimately contributed to the Maryland victory. Clemson did go on to post a winning record and earn a bid to the Gator Bowl, but the dye had been cast.

Looking back now, had Clemson beaten Maryland, the Tigers would have been 4-1 and 2-0 in conference play. Spirits would have been high going into the Wake game and it is my opinion that Clemson would have won that game. A different season would have followed.

The 2009 season has a game very much like the Maryland game of 2008. Clemson will open the season with a win over Middle Tennesse State. Next, the Tigers will travel to Atlanta on Thursday night to play a good Georgia Tech team.

If this game was to be played on a Saturday, I think the Tigers would have a slim chance to pull off the upset. But this game is on a Thursday night; we all know what happens to road teams on Thursday. Georgia Tech had a good football team and I am not sure I see any way Clemson can win on the road on a Thursday night with an inexperienced quarterback.

This means the next game against Boston College is huge. Clemson plays Boston College at home after the Georgia Tech game. The fan base will be searching and concerned as a new coach and new quarterback will have suffered their first loss of the season. The Tigers will be 0-1 in conference and can not start the season 0-2 in conference play.

If the Tigers can get past Boston College, the next conference game will be against Maryland, a team that returns just nine starters and 38 lettermen. So circle your calendar, Tiger fans, the big game is Sep. 19 at 12:00 in Death Valley. It should be one of those games that could define a season.

Early Givens about Clemson

Jay Schrimpf — Mon, 18 May 2009 00:40:10 -0400

The Clemson football season is some time away, but there are some early "givens" that Clemson must address if the Tigers plan to be bowl-eligible this year. Here are my top five.

1) Find a quarterback: This is a basic concept, and one that needs no explanation. Willy Korn is the four-star recruit, signed in 2007. He played in both 2007 and 2008 and in two years has thrown the ball just 49 times! His backup is Kyle Parker: he has even less experience. This is a huge concern for the Tigers.

2) Replacing Vic Koenning: There is no doubt that during his four years at Clemson, the Tiger defenses excelled and were consistently very good. Now the Tigers look to Kevin Steele to keep the defense at the same level. Steele is one of the most respected coaches in the game, but this is still an area of concern.

3) Receivers must step up: Gone are some very good receivers from the 2008 season. Clemson has Jacoby Ford, who will attract defensive attention. The problem lies with the rest of the receivers. While talented, this group has not proven themselves. Defenses will more than likely stack the line and force a young Clemson quarterback to throw. The receivers will need to run clean routes and make catches.

4) Depth at secondary: Clemson has a talented secondary that should have no problem covering receivers. But if the injury "bug" bights, watch teams go to the air.

5) Reaction after the first conference loss: I am sure Clemson fans will have dreams of a conference title in their minds come early August. (This is not a bad thing.) But Clemson opens the ACC season with a road game in Atlanta on a Thursday night. Anyone who follows college football knows that road teams rarely win on Thursday nights. So after Clemson loses, how will the fans react? Keep in mind, Clemson fans are unforgiving. (Clemson is perhaps one of the most difficult places to coach, due to unrealistic expectations.) With a young quarterback, this could be a recipe for the first losing season at Clemson since 1998.

****Also, the Tigers must keep Andre Ellington happy. The four-star running back from Berkley County was to share time with Jamie Harper this year. He red-shirted last year, anticipating getting many touches in 2009. But someone named CJ Spiller decided to stay for his senior year. The Tigers can ill afford to lose a future star after last season's low recruiting numbers.

So You Want a College Football Playoff?

Jay Schrimpf — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 14:28:42 -0500

This easiest way to declare a national champion is to play the game. As I watch the ESPN and CBS analysts come up with ideas to declare our national champion, I am stunned. In every scenario, these pundits are using polls and the BCS. That is the whole problem now!

Regardless of which poll, or combination of polls one decides to use, it is subjective. In other words, people make up these polls.

So here is my suggestion on how to solve our national championship problem. Here is my playoff and the rules that go along with it.

1) I suggest keeping every bowl game for those teams that have a good season but did not get into the playoff. The idea behind every bowl game is to reward a team for a good year.

2) All regular season games must be completed the Saturday before Thanksgiving. If there is going to be a playoff, there must be time for one. I am not trying to end traditions, but instead create a playoff.

3) There will be 16 teams in the playoff. The six power conferences will send two representatives. These two will be the champion and runner-up. It does not matter how each conference elects this, just that they do.

4) Notre Dame must join the Big Ten or be omitted from the playoff system. I have no problem with the Irish keeping their NBC contract and the money that goes with it.

5) The other three independents must be found a conference. Geography must be taken into consideration when doing this.

6) The Sun Belt Conference must dissolve, and the eight teams there must be divided eventually and accepted into the SEC and ACC...OUCH. Or simply, the Sun Belt Conference may have to be excluded for now.

7) The first round matchups go like this:

a) ACC No. 2 at SEC No. 1 Boston College at Florida

b) SEC No. 2 at ACC No. 1 Alabama at Virginia Tech

c) Big E No. 2 at Big Ten No. 1 Pittsburgh at Penn State

d) Big Ten No. 2 at Big E No. 1 Ohio State at Cincinnati

e) Big 12 No. 2 at Pac-10 No. 1 Missouri at USC

f) Pac-10 No. 2 at Big 12 No. 1 Oregon at Oklahoma

g) Conf USA No. 1 at MAC No. 1 ECU at Buffalo (Home field changes every year)

h) Mt West No. 1 at WAC No. 1 Utah at Boise St. (Home field changes every year)

8) The second round projections go like this:

Winner of game (a) plays winner of game (b)

Winner of game (c) plays winner of game (d)

Winner of game (e) plays winner of game (f)

Winner of game (g) plays winner of game (h)

a) Alabama at Florida (home field goes to higher ranked team; if ACC No. 1 were to

play SEC No. 1, the home field changes every year)

b) Ohio State plays at Penn State (see above about home field)

c) USC at Oklahoma (home field rotates back to Pac-10 next year in case of a No. 1

seed matchup or a No. 2 seed matchup)

d) ECU at Utah (home field changes between winner of "g" game and "h" game every

year)

9) Third round projections:

Florida, Penn State, USC and Utah are left...have an East Coast game and a West Coast game that has already been decided, then your national championship game after that.

Of course there is the money issue...

Top Five Hardest Places to Coach in College Football

Jay Schrimpf — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 19:14:02 -0400

The following are my top five hardest places to coach in college football. Of course there are others, but as you will see, these schools have six things in common.

In no particular order, the teams are Alabama, Clemson, Tennessee, Notre Dame, and Michigan.

1) These teams are detested by every team they play. This means the opponent is bringing their "A" game.

2) Fan expectations are unfair to the coach and the players. The team could be replacing 22 starters, and the fanbase would expect a conference title.

3) The national media usually has these teams ranked high in the preseason. This makes it hard for the coach when the team does not deserve to be there to start with.

4) All of these teams have a tradition of winning.

5) All of these teams have loyal fan support.

6) All of these teams have wonderful facilities.

The fans of these teams have little patience and demand winning. We have already seen Tommy Bowden of Clemson ousted this year. Talk of Phillip Fulmer has been "smoking" all year, and a loss to lowly South Carolina this week could solidify this.

Good old Charlie at Notre Dame is destined for trouble in 2009. Rich should have stayed at West Virginia, as Big Blue fans have already lost patience with him.

Only Nick Saban is OK for right now...BUT lose to Auburn, and he will be 0-2 against the hated rival—and a wonderful season will turn into a nightmare.

Shucking It to the Korn: Is Willy the Answer for Clemson?

Jay Schrimpf — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 18:44:48 -0400

As the clocked ticked down last Thursday night in Winston-Salem, the Clemson Tigers found themselves in 1-2 in the ACC. The Tigers are all but done in the conference race after just three games. To make matters worse, star running back CJ Spiller is injured and his status remains unknown.

But if all of this was not bad enough, the Clemson faithful have turned on their head coach. Much like fans at Tennessee, Clemson fans have felt that their head coach no longer can lead the team to the coveted championship.

But unlike the Tennessee fans, the Clemson fans have no recent national title, conference title or divisional title to celebrate. In fact, under Tommy Bowden, the Clemson fans have none of these.

So while the fans are howling and the chat rooms are lightning up with new coaching suggestions, there is a game to play. In fact, there is still a second season to play. The second half of the season starts at home against Georgia Tech. And despite an anemic offense and a defense that gives up the big plays, the Tigers are favored.

Thus enters the wild card. Willy Korn will get his first start at Clemson. The five-star recruit quarterback (dropped to four stars by Rivals after signing his letter of intent—a story for another day) from nearby Byrnes High School is expected to be the Clemson saviour. The quarterback that Billy Lucky and Willie Simmons never lived up to be. He is to be the total package that Whitehurst and Dantzler were not. He is heralded as the next "Steve Fuller."

So let's shuck it to the Korn. The redshirt freshman still needs someone to block for him. The young quarterback needs his defense to play 60 minutes. The field general will still need the team to show heart. He will also need the fans to support the coaching staff. The receivers need to make the tough catches and the defensive backs need to make plays.

When you finish shucking it to the Korn, does anything change?

If Clemson wins, the fan base will blast Bowden for not playing the young quarterback sooner. If Clemson loses, all the more reason to get rid of this coach and his staff.

Clemson has already lost, and the game has not been played. The only thing left for the Clemson fans is the postgame tailgate party. By the way, what is the weather supposed to be like?

Showdown at Dolphin Stadium: Florida State-Miami a Battle of Who Won't Lose

Jay Schrimpf — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 14:42:14 -0400

Old rivals will kick off in a key ACC matchup at 3:30 this Saturday. Florida State enters the game 0-1 in the conference and can ill-afford another conference loss. Miami also enters the contest 0-1, and a loss for the 'Canes would also put them in a deep hole.

The odds-makers have determined the Hurricanes will win this game by three points. But are they correct? Is Dolphin Stadium the difference between the two teams?

Both teams have solid wins over Big 12 teams. Both teams have heartbreaking losses at home to conference foes. Miami has a young and energetic coach, while FSU has a crafty veteran at the helm. Miami is coming off a tough loss, while FSU is coming off a big win.

The bottom line is that the loser of this game will find itself 0-2 in the conference and, for all intents and purposes, out of the conference race. If Miami loses, the 'Canes still have to face Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech. Those teams have a combined record of 10-3! If FSU loses, it will be 0-2 with Virginia Tech, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland, and Boston College left.

So now the question is, "Who will lose?"

In looking at Miami, we see that the 'Canes have wins over Charleston Southern and Texas A&M. Of course, Charleston Southern is an unimpressive foe, but how about the win at Kyle Field? Texas A&M has wins over New Mexico by six and Army by four. The losses the Aggies have are to Miami and to Arkansas St. So I am not sure the Canes have a "good" win just yet.

The 'Noles have three wins, two of them are against Western Carolina and Chattanooga. The one win that could be termed "good" was against Colorado. However, there is no question that Miaimi has more talent than Colorado, and the Seminoles will see a "different gear" from the Miaimi defense.

At this point, I have to give the edge to FSU in this early season showdown. The first reason is that I still believe FSU has the best coaching staff in the ACC. I am not saying the Miami staff is bad, just not as experienced yet. The second edge I give is the way in which Miami lost last week. An emotional loss, especially in college football, is extremely difficult to overcome.

FSU 21, Miami 16

ACC Football Recap: Who Had the Worst Loss?

Jay Schrimpf — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 06:22:47 -0400

This past Saturday in the ACC determined which teams have placed themselves in a hole. Let's take a look at the biggest loser in the ACC this past week.

5. NC State got beat by 31 points to South Florida!

Granted, the Bulls are the #13 ranked team in the nation, but 31 points? NC State had just come off a big victory over ECU, giving the #15 ranked Pirates their first loss of the season. But, O'Brien still gets a pass because he is in his second year.

4. Wake Forest loses to Navy.

That is right, to Navy. The only reason this does not go higher is because it is a non-conference game and has no real importance on the season. Unless you believe Wake had a shot for the national title, this game was just embarrassing for a school, program and coach, and yes...........for the ACC it was a complete disaster.

3. Virginia's loss to Duke means the Groh will not make it through the season.

Not only did the Cavs lose to Duke, they lost by 28 points! Virginia is a team in total disarray and the season is truly over. The only thing left to play for is the possiblitiy of upsetting Virginia Tech at the end of the season.

2. Miami's lost to UNC was a shock.

Miami, much like Clemson, allowed an inferior team to come from behind and win. But the Miami is still in control of its own destiny with a game against Virginia Tech looming. But, the Canes must beat FSU this Saturday. If not, the Canes are in a deep well.

1. Clemson, by far, had the most disasterous loss of any ACC team this past Saturday.

The loss puts Clemson at 1-1 in conference. The Tigers now need Maryland to lose and no longer control their own destiny.

All of this after just 2 conference games.

Much like the Canes, allowing an inferior team to win, coming from behind late in the game and losing at home. There were 28 suicides at Clemson after the game as people were hanging themselves from Memorial Stadium.

Clemson and Maryland Look for Early Edge in Death Valley

Jay Schrimpf — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 17:03:00 -0400

It could be a game played in the late 1970s or '80s. Maryland and Clemson getting together in Death Valley for a game to have major implications in the ACC.

The names of yesteryear have changed from Boomer, Homer, Ross, and Ford to new ones. The stadiums have been updated with new press boxes, suites and jumbotrons. Television now dictates kickoff times and even affects rules. But, in a strange way, here we are again—Clemson and Maryland.

Both teams have already been embarrassed in this young season. Clearly, Clemson fell victim to its own press clippings and was outclassed in the season opener against Alabama. Maryland dropped a game to Middle Tennessee State that had the Terp fans counting the days to basketball season the Sunday afterward.

Both teams, too, have coaches on the proverbial "hot seat." Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen is just 25-23 since 2004. The Terps' conference record over the same time is 14-18. The Maryland graduate needs a good year to quiet the critics.

Tommy Bowden also would love to exorcise the demons and win the ACC title. The last three years, the Tigers have come very close. In fact, three plays in three years have kept the Tigers from winning the division each year! But that does not help him when asked how many championships he has won.

Thus, the early season showdown is set. The winner is sure to have the inside track to the divisional title despite Wake Forest being considered the class of the conference. The fact of the matter is both Maryland and Clemson are 7-2 against the Deacons over the past nine years. We certainly must acknowledge history.

Yes, this time of year makes me remember football of old. I can remember the crisp autumn air, no TV, sandwiches and sodas before the game, and the ACC showdown...Clemson and Maryland. (OK, so it's not a top 10 match up...but it will have to do.)

ACC Now Looking to Wake Forest to Save Some Shame

Jay Schrimpf — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 17:56:24 -0400

The first week is over, and the ACC's two top preseason teams were beat. Clemson was simply embarrassed, and Virginia Tech is still stunned.

NC State fared no better getting beat by 34 on Thursday night. Virginia was taken down by a powerful Southern Cal team. Even UNC and Maryland struggled against teams they should have beaten easily.

Miami plays Florida this week, but it may be too much to ask of the Canes for a win at this point in their program.

Thus, the eye of the conference will be in Winston-Salem on Saturday, hoping Wake Forest can win. If not, the pundits who say the conference is down are not correct. A better description would be abysmal.

Ole Miss has not won more than four games in any season since 2003. But this year could be different. The Rebels finally have a good coach in Houston Nutt.

There was never a lack of talent for the Mississippi school. Tyrone Nix, the defense coordinator, has nine starters to work with. The Rebels will see a misdirection offense that will take some getting used to. I expect Ole Miss to have some initial trouble with it and then adjust. It is one thing to simulate it in practice, but it's totally different in a game.

I look for Ole Miss to show both run and pass blitz packages against the Wake offensive line. Wake lost four starters last year and, while the replacements have experience, this is still just the second game of the season. If the offensive line for the Deacons does well, this game will get ugly for the Rebels.

Wake Forest returns nine starters from its defensvie squad last year. This is a very solid group, and the Rebels will see a strong defense, including a great secondary. If the Rebels are to have any success, they are going to have to run the ball. If not, Wake Forest will win huge.

Prediction: Wake Forest 27, Ole Miss 16

What Is Wrong With NC State?

Jay Schrimpf — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 18:39:34 -0400

It was painful to watch. My emotions went from hope, to sadness, to frustration, to disbelief, and then to anger. Certainly this was not what Tom O'Brien was brought to Raleigh to do. I mean, to lose is one thing—but to be embarrassed is another.

BREAKING IT DOWN

I anticipated a Wolfpack loss to South Carolina. After all, South Carolina has more returning starters and a first rate defense, not to mention this game would be played in Columbia. I figured the South Carolina defense would allow the Gamecocks to pull away in the end.

However, there were a couple of things I did not figure on.

1) I had no idea just how bad the offensive line is for NC State. Not only were they not able to block, they were unsure of who to block. If anything takes luster off the shutout the Gamecock team pitched, it is this. At least junior high teams know who to block. Also, the center may want to learn how to snap the ball.

2) Defensively, NC State wore out. I knew this would happen—this team has no depth on defense. The first team was adequate, but the replacements were out of place and slow. I simply was amazed at the drop in talent when the second team players would rotate into the game.

3) NC State seemed complacent. I watched as the players seemed to accept the fact they could not win and were simply going through the motions. I was not prepared for this. Even Baylor showed emotion as Wake was beating them.

I do not see NC State winning more than two games this year unless many things improve. I see a trend with the Wolfpack that dates to last year.

Against South Carolina, the offense scored no points. In the last game of 2007 against Maryland, the offense scored no points. In the 11th game last year, the Pack scored just 18 points against Wake. (Wake had seen their ACC divisional title hopes dashed the week before and were emotionally down.)

This is a horrible trend. It may get a jump start next week against William and Mary, but Clemson, ECU, and South Florida are waiting in the wings.

THIS AND THAT

1) Why would Steve Spurrier start Tommy Beecher? Better yet, why would he keep a quarterback in the game that threw four picks and could not move the team?

2) Hot seat? You heard it here first. Chuck Amato was 7-5 in 2005 before dropping to 3-9 in 2006. If O'Brien wins just two or three games this year, the Pack fans will want another coach.

3) It has been a long time since I was reminded why everyone disliked Spurrier. It was not because he won at Florida. It is because he does not know how to act when he wins.

Say what you want, but being up 20 against NC State was the same as being up 60. Calling a post pattern up by 27 with seven minutes to play in the game is classless. But I am sure the rest of the SEC remembers his comments and the way he "ran" up the score.

It's funny—no one dislikes Paterno, Carroll, or Osborne. But I am not sure Joe Pa calls a post pattern up by 27 with seven minutes left to play.

Seven Fearless ACC Picks

Jay Schrimpf — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 14:12:41 -0400

Football is upon us, so let us look at the picks of week one. Well, the picks the way I see them anyway.

NC State @ S. Carolina

NC State should be able to hang with S. Carolina for a while. But in the end, South Carolina has a defense that should turn the game into a field position battle. I see S. Carolina pulling away in the end and winning by 17. (I could be wrong if Spurrier becomes impatient and yanks quarterbacks and goes for it on fourth and long.)

Clemson & Alabama

Clemson does not match up well against Alabama. Look for Alabama to run misdirections and take advantage of a young but talented linebacker group.

On the other side of the ball, the front four for the Tide should have fun against a inexperienced offensive line. Alabama by 10. (I could be wrong if McElwain decides to throw the ball. The secondary is too good for an average quarterback and average receivers.)

Wake Forest @ Baylor

The Deacs should be able to win this game based off sheer talent. There is something else as well: expectations. Wake Forest expects to win. The Bears expect to lose.

Wake Forest by 24. (I could be wrong if Baylor forces Wake Forest to throw, making them one-dimensional. With nine starters back on defense for Baylor and playing an inexperienced offensive line, this could happen.)

Boston College and Kent St.

The Eagles should have no problem with this one. A good game to work the kinks out for a new quarterback. Eagles by 31. (I could be wrong if the game is close at the half and the quarterback becomes frustrated for the Eagles.)

Va. Tech @ ECU

In a stunner, I look for the Pirates to spring the upset. ECU returns 16 starters and lost by just 10 in Blacksburg last year. ECU by two. (I could be wrong because Va. Tech has talent and just because this game will be that close.)

Southern Cal and UVA

Despite the fact the Trojans have many injuries, they should have no problem with the Cavs. I look for Southern Cal to use the seven starters they have back on defense to really pressure the quarterback. Southern Cal by 27. (I could be wrong if Pearman goes for over 100 and the Trojans have four turnovers.)

James Madison at Duke

This game is worth a note because I have picked Duke to win three games this year. If the Devils are to do this, they must win this one. I will say the Blue Devils get the win by 13. (I could be wrong because it is Duke.)

Georgia Tech, Miami and UNC will win BIG!

Is Clemson-Alabama Hype Much Ado About Nothing?

Jay Schrimpf — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 17:25:31 -0400

On August 30, Alabama and Clemson fans will pack the Georgia Dome for four quarters of football. Both fans are rabid and are predicting a win for their respective schools—but does the game really matter?

This is a non-conference game. It is an early season game, allowing the loser time to make up for the loss as the season progresses.

If Alabama loses, but then wins the next four SEC games, would the loss to Clemson even be a topic of discussion? After all, the Tide would be 4-0 in the SEC and headed for a showdown in Knoxville.

Likewise, if Clemson lost to Alabama, how much of the season would be lost? The big game for Clemson, according to the experts, is a Thursday night game in Winston-Salem. That game will give the winner the inside track to the division title.

We have seen the last two national champions overcome losses in the middle of the season and go on to win the championship. It is almost a given that no team will go undefeated, that everyone will lose. It just matters when you lose, who loses ahead of you, and who the loss is against.

Thus, back to the question: Does this game really matter? Well, perhaps not in the grand scheme of things.

But there are three things that a loss could affect: attendance, recruiting, and confidence.

1) Attendance

Clemson plays the Citadel the week after the opener. If Clemson wins, the Clemson faithful will be giddy, and Death Valley will be packed with 85,000-plus as a top 10 team runs down the hill.

Lose, and the soldier boys from Citadel can find date tickets easily.

If Alabama wins this game, the Tide faithful will have another football story and Nick Saban will be proclaimed "king for a day." The home opener against Tulane will be a festive event, and fans will come from everywhere.

Lose, and the excitement will not be the same—and Tulane sure won't help attendance.

2) Recruiting

Both of these teams recruit the state of Georgia, and against each other. Clemson star receiver Tyler Grisham hails from Alabama. Beating a high profile team certainly helps make the job of a recruiter easier.

Also, young high school prospects across the nation will be tuning in to watch the game of the weekend. They will remember the outcome, and the winner may have the edge on signing day.

3) Confidence

Then there is confidence. Without getting into too much detail about the weaknesses of each school—and there are many—let us look at the linebackers for both teams. The fact of the matter is that neither team has enough quality linebackers. Both sets will be tested.

Both schools get relatively easy games for the next three weeks. A win would boost confidence and allow more learning time for both sets of linebackers. These two teams should both win their next three games.

In the course of the season, this game does not have a lot of meaning, as it's a non-conference game that has no impact on winning the division. But it sure will be fun—and in the end, that's what college football is all about.

Can the Hole get Too Deep for the Miami Hurricanes?

Jay Schrimpf — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 17:42:30 -0400

College football teams depend on getting good recruits every year. If you get good players, you will have good seasons. Teams need to have the pipeline of recruiting flowing. In order to capture a good player, programs must have several factors working all at once.

Occasionally, a coach and his staff can overcome one of these intangibles being "out of commission." While it is rare, a staff can overcome a losing season and have a wonderful recruiting year. But if a team keeps losing, even the best of staffs can not recruit well.

One of the most important factors in recruiting are facilities. Of course, the most obvious of these is the stadium itself.

For instance, if a young man has narrowed his choices down to UNC and Duke, the stadium could be the factor that pushes the young man to become a Tar Heel. Both schools have wonderful coaches, both play in the ACC and both are outstanding academic schools.

For the sake of argument, let us say that both teams won seven games the year before. In this scenario, UNC might have the edge because of Kenan Stadium.

Now let's say, you do not have a stadium. You play your home games in a pro stadium some 40 minutes from campus. Of course, I am referring to the University of Miami.

Last year, Miami averaged 43,589 fans in the Orange Bowl. That includes 62,000 who showed up for the last game Miami would play there.

The point is, Miami fans do not show up in the same manner as fans of Florida and FSU. (The Cane fans may be out late on Friday nights. After all, it is Miami.)

These same fans, especially students, are not going to get up and travel 30 to 45 minutes for a 1 p.m. kickoff at Dolphin Stadium. It is doubtful that attendance will increase for Miami games.

Randy Shannon had an outstanding recruiting year. The head coach had to sell young men to play for a team that had a losing record and no home field.

No coach in the ACC, SEC or any other major conference had to overcome both of these distractions and STILL get a top recruiting class.

But how long can Miami keep digging before the hole becomes a grave? Over the last two years, Miami has a losing record, 12-13. Since being a part of the ACC, Miami has won just 50 percent of their conference games.

Miami has not been ranked since losing at Louisville in the third game of the 2006 season. Putting that another way, Miami joins Duke, N.C. State and North Carolina as the only other ACC teams with the distinction of not being ranked during the same time span.

At what point will the Miami faithful and those wonderful south Florida athletes start not believing in the mystique of Miami football? Fans not showing up to watch a team lose will not look good to recruits.

If Miami has another losing season and the attendance drops, is the hangman far behind for the program that has given us all so many fond memories?

Can Duke Football Win Four Games in 2008?

Jay Schrimpf — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 17:18:23 -0400

The David Cutcliffe era has begun at Duke. The question is, can he win? For that matter, can anyone win at Duke?

We all know the story of the Steve Spurrier's days at Duke and the job he did when he was there.

Can it be done again?

Perhaps Duke winning in football is just something that comes along every 50 years or so.

But for now, Cutcliffe has to ask himself, "What is really achievable this year?"

We all know the armed Dukes of Durham are not going to win the divisional title. We all know that Duke is not going to have a winning season.

So what can we expect, and what will the head coach accept as a "good" year?

I think four wins this year would be a success for Cutcliffe and the school. That would be my first goal if I were coach.

The next would be to increase my home attendance by 5,000. Duke averaged 20,064 people per game last year at Wallace Wade Stadium. I'm not going to get into why this is pathetic—if you are on this site, you already know that is pathetic.

Let us examine the first goal that I have proposed for the Duke football team. Duke has not had a season where they won four games since 2003, when they finished 4-8. In fact, one has to go all the way back to 1994 to find a year Duke won more than four games in a season.

That said, I think Duke can win four this year.

First, Duke has an excellent football coach. Cutcliffe won at Ole Miss! His all-time record is 44-29 and he had a winning conference record while at Ole Miss.

Second, Duke has 17 starters coming back and 50 lettermen returning. The core of the team is in place.

The third reason is the schedule. Duke opens with James Madison, which should be a win. Then Duke gets Northwestern at home. Duke beat this team last year on the road and has more starters coming back, so it would stand to reason that Duke can win this one.

Navy then comes to town. How much will the loss of coach Paul Johnson affect Navy? This is another game Duke can win.

This is when it gets interesting. Duke can't, in my opinion, beat Clemson, Wake Forest, UNC, Virginia, or Virginia Tech. The question becomes, with Georgia Tech hiring a new coach and numerous starters lost, how vulnerable are the Jackets?

NC State and Miami are still learning under second-year coaches. Last year Duke lost by just 10 to Miami. Duke also gets Vandy this year. Vandy is a team that returns just nine starters from last year.

I feel Duke will beat James Madison, beat Northwestern, and upset Navy. That leaves simply one game that Duke needs to win. Is that team Virginia, Georgia Tech, Miami, Vanderbilt, or NC State?

In any case, I say Duke goes 4-8.

As far as attendance, there is no reason Duke should not average 25,000 this year. NC State and UNC play at Wallace Wade. The Miami game should draw a lot of excitement, and fans will still come to see the Canes despite the luster of Miami football being long gone.

Attendance should be up because of the new coach and the excitement that this creates among the fan base.

Win four games and get the attendance up. Rome was not built in a day.