Bleacher Report - Articles by Alex Boylhart

Fantasy Rankings 2008/2009: Running Backs

Alex Boylhart — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 10:20:34 -0400

The top two running backs in the rankings need no introduction or explanation as to why they are the top two. After that, it can get a little dicey.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers

2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings

3. Steven Jackson, Rams – I believe Jackson will bounce back to the top fantasy form previous to last year. He was hampered by injuries last season, but it was really the first time it's happened in his career. When he’s healthy, there’s no doubt that he’s one of the top two or three backs in the league.

4. Brian Westbrook, Eagles – With the Eagles not adding a number one receiver this off-season (Moss, Fitzgerald) and only adding DeSean Jackson in the draft, Westbrook will return as the Eagles top option on offense. He has the ability to lead the team in rushing and receiving game after game. He will continue to carry that offense on his back and will put up numbers in both the rushing and receiving categories.

5. Marion Barber, Cowboys – I have him rated higher than most because I trust him to consistently produce over guys like Larry Johnson and Frank Gore. To me, they are wild cards and I’d rather take Barber here. He will be the main man this year (mostly), especially on the goal-line.

6. Joseph Addai, Colts – I know that Dominic Rhodes is back, but in the time he was gone, Addai established himself as the number one back. They won’t split carries like they did two years ago. I like Addai for his rushing and receiving stats, especially if Manning’s knee is more serious than previously reported.

7. Marshawn Lynch, Bills – Lynch is a beast, period. He reminds me of Barber. Even when opposing defenses consistently stack eight men in the box last year, Lynch still ran over, through, and around them. Now that they have added another threat in WR James Hardy, Lynch will have a little more breathing room.

Sleepers:

Chris Johnson, Titans – The Titans drafted Johnson as a change of pace back to LenDale White. However, the Titans are realizing just how good and versatile Johnson is. They are lining him up in the backfield, in the slot...pretty much all over the place. If LenDale starts with his antics, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Johnson start taking more and more reps away. This guy is lightening in a bottle, draft him late.
Selvin Young, Broncos – Young showed signs last year of being a capable back in this league. With Travis Henry gone, Young takes over the majority of the carries. The Broncos added Michael Pittman, but his inability to stay healthy could make Young the premier back.
Julius Jones, Seahawks – I realize I was in the minority, but I always liked him in Dallas and thought he wasn’t getting a fair shake. I think he can produce at a high level in this league. He may be a sleeper; the only thing I worry about is T.J. Duckett getting the goal-line carries. We’ll see how it plays out.
Thomas Jones, Jets – These next two aren’t really sleepers, more so guys that could breakout. I’m still not ready to give up on Jones just yet. With a new and upgraded offensive line (Faneca, Woody) and some other weapons on offense (Keller, Franks), I think Jones could break out again. Watch out.
Reggie Bush, Saints - Bush, really? Yes, really. Bush hasn’t brought his college game to the NFL, leaving some people to say he’s a bust. I’ll tell you what I see. I see a RB in his third year, the year most say players start to break out. I see a healthy Deuce McAllister to take the hard carries, which isn’t Bush’s forte. I see possible return stats, receiving stats and rushing stats. If this guy can find his niche, he could be explosive on the field.

Misconceptions/Stay away from:

· Matt Forte, Bears – I can’t believe I’m hearing his name around as a top fantasy sleeper. It’s not a testament to how good or bad he is, I really liked him coming out of college, my problem is the Bears offense. They have no offensive line, no wide receivers and no quarterback. You could put Tomlinson back there and I’d stay away from him. It annoys me that just because Forte is the favorite for carries, people immediately want to grab him for their team. Listen, the Bears offense might be the worst in the league this year, not to mention there’s no guarantee Peterson won’t take some carries as well. So go ahead, draft Forte. I’ll be the one laughing when he produces the same stats that Benson and Peterson did last year.

· Frank Gore, 49ers – He will be a boom or bust player this year. Mike Martz is coming over from Detroit. Will Martz ruin Gore’s production with his pass happy offense like he did to Kevin Jones in Detroit, or will he utilize Gore like he did with Marshall Faulk in St. Louis? The Niners have no QB, so I’m leaning towards Martz running the ball more than he usually does. I just can’t be certain. The chance of Gore being a bust is too close to call for me to draft Gore with my first pick.

· Larry Johnson, Chiefs – The Chiefs have almost an entire new offensive line, not to mention not having a QB that is worth a damn, at least up until this point. Will he stay healthy? And even if he does, can he produce in that horrible Chiefs offense? I’m staying away.

· Willie Parker, Steelers – He could probably lead the league in rushing again, but he still wouldn’t be as good of a fantasy option as some might think. We’ll see how it plays out, but I think Mendenhall will take the goal-line carries this year, leaving Parker with just a bunch of yards. Also, Mendenhall might even take some carries away between the 20’s. I would still draft Parker, but I don’t think he’ll have many touchdowns.

By: Alex Boylhart

New York Mets: Buyers or Sellers? I Say Neither

Alex Boylhart — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 03:55:21 -0400

As the MLB trade deadline grows near, the debate between Mets fans is over whether the Mets should be buyers or sellers.

With their nine-game winning streak going into the All-Star break, they reside only one-half game out of first place in the division. Most people realize that the Mets are in this thing and want them to be buyers. But I say the Mets should be neither buyers nor sellers.

It's true that both corner-outfield spots have injuries. Alou might be gone for the season, and there's no guarantee Church will return to his early-season form. This has most Mets fans screaming for an outfield addition.

I would love for the Mets to add a veteran bat such as Ibanez from the Mariners, but there are costs to such a move.

I say the Mets should be neither buyers nor sellers, because the cost of adding an Ibanez, Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, or Matt Holliday is far to steep for the Mets' farm system at this point.

If we could add one of those prized outfielders, or possibly a Fuentes from the Rockies, for a cheap price—then great. The problem is, I don't think it's possible. All of those trades would start with the Mets sending our top prospect, outfielder Fernando Martinez.

Endy Chavez and Fernando Tatis are playing outstanding right now, probably over their heads, but once Church comes back, I think Chavez and Tatis would make a good combo in left field.

Also, the Mets have other options within the system. Angel Pagan will be back soon, and if he can play the way he did before he got injured, that would give the Mets an added boost. There's also Nick Evans and Val Pascucci, some guys that might surprise given the chance.

I don't think the Mets should be depleting their farm system any more than they have been, just to add a player that might not be with us after the season. If we can add Ibanez, or anyone they desire, without giving up F-Mart and all of our prospects, then by all means, pull the trigger.

Additionally, there are some creative avenues the Mets could try. What about Heilman? His value is starting to gain some momentum—could he be the centerpiece in returning a bat?

If we could package Heilman and some prospects (not named F-Mart) for an outfielder, and somehow get Fuentes from the Rockies, that would be great. Otherwise, I say we go with what we have, what will be returning, and not give up any more of our top prospects.

Is Drafting an Offensive Lineman in the First Round Overrated?

Alex Boylhart — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 07:15:58 -0400

It is a popular idea that the offensive line is the key to having a good football team. In many cases, a good offensive line means a good offense, and a bad offensive line means a bad offense.

With other positions, it is possible to hide certain positional weaknesses and still have success. This is evident in recent Super Bowl teams with bad quarterbacking (Bears—Rex Grossman), lack of a running game or majority of offense is passing (Patriots), and lack of an air attack or majority of offense is running (Steelers).

But, without an offensive line, you aren’t going to hide anything. You can’t run the ball, and you certainly can’t pass the ball.

However, on draft day, when teams draft an offensive lineman in the first round, fans around the NFL release a sigh—usually some sort of disappointment.

Why? Because it’s not the flashy pick. It’s not the flashy WR that scores touchdowns and demands the ball and it’s not the RB that jukes defenders out of their jock straps. Unfortunately, these are also the feelings of some GM’s around the NFL, who want to snatch that skill player and wait to grab a boring offensive lineman later on in the draft.

Sure, there are quality linemen available in the later rounds, and you might even get lucky with an undrafted free agent, but drafting an offensive lineman in the first round seems to have great results.

Here are all of the offensive linemen drafted in the first round from the years 2000-2007. I’ve left the recent 2008 lineman out of the mix, as they haven’t touched the field in the NFL yet.

2007: Joe Thomas, Levi Brown, Joe Staley, and Ben Grubbs.

2006: D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Davin Joseph, and Nick Mangold.

2005: Jamaal Brown, Alex Barron, Logan Mankins, and Chris Spencer.

2004: Robert Gallery, Shawn Andrews, and Vernon Carey.

2003: Jordan Gross, George Foster, Kwame Harris, and Jeff Faine.

2002: Mike Williams, Bryant McKinnie, Levi Jones, Marc Colombo, and Kendall Simmons.

2001: Leonard Davis, Kenyatta Walker, Jeff Backus, and Steve Hutchinson.

2000: Chris Samuels, Stockar McDougal, and Chris McIntosh.

The players in bold/italic are the players who have not started or made a significant impact on their teams. Out of the 30 lineman drafted in the first round over the last eight years, only seven of them haven’t started or made an impact with their squad. That’s it—seven.

Many of those guys above are Pro Bowlers. From that list, I’d suggest that if you’re a team that needs to improve their offensive line, you draft one in the first round because that’s a 77 percent success rate, which I believe is higher than any other position.

Also, out of the last six teams to make the Super Bowl, seven out of the 12 lineman on the left side of their offensive line (often considered the strong or most important side) were first round picks, and nine of the 12 were first day picks. I think that says something toward the importance of drafting linemen.

I’m not saying that offensive linemen that are picked later on in the draft aren’t going to be good; there are certainly plenty of linemen that become excellent. Hell, the last two Super Bowl winners sported two undrafted free agents on their offensive lines each (Rich Seubert and Shaun O’Hara with the Giants and Ryan Lilja and Jeff Saturday with the Colts).

But, what I am saying is that if you desperately need to upgrade your offensive line, don’t pass over the talented but boring lineman just for the flashy skill player or rely on grabbing a lineman later on. You can’t beat a 77 percent success rate.

Fantasy Football Rankings 2008: Quarterbacks

Alex Boylhart — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 10:50:23 -0400

1.) Peyton Manning, Colts

This will shock some people, particularly because Tom Brady is ranked No. 1 on almost all fantasy QB lists. (See: 2.) Tom Brady.)

Peyton is at this spot because he will have a healthy Marvin Harrison back, as well as 2007's first-round pick WR Anthony Gonzalez. The receiving corps is intact (Harrison, Wayne, and Gonzalez), the offensive line has had a season to gel, and the running game looks stronger than ever with Addai and Dominic Rhodes.

Peyton should be back at the top, head and shoulders above all other quarterbacks, along with Tom Brady.

2.) Tom Brady, Patriots

Brady will still put up fantastic numbers, it’s just...Peyton’s will be better. It’s no secret what the formula is for beating the Patriots—a dime package and a pass rush at all times. Not to say teams will be able to do it, but unless the Pats start running the ball, they are, for now, one-dimensional.

The Pats also lost WR Donte Stallworth to the Browns, and could possibly have offensive-line concerns after the Giants exposed their weaknesses, combined with Nick Kaczur’s off-field antics.

Randy Moss was held in check for the duration of the playoffs and will probably see the same type of coverages heading into this season. Look for Brady to still put up numbers, just not like he did last year.

3.) Tony Romo, Cowboys

The Cowboys probably won’t have WR Terry Glenn factoring in much this season...but, they didn’t last year, either. The 'Boys return WRs Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, and TE Jason Witten to their passing game, along with new RB Felix Jones, who will add a new dimension coming out of the backfield.

In the real world of football, Romo can be screwy at times, his fantasy numbers should be there once again.

4.) Drew Brees, Saints

Brees will hopefully have something this season that he didn’t last year—a running game. The Deuce returns (with questions) to team-up with Reggie Bush again, so the Saints won’t be so one-dimensional and predictable on offense this year. Also, Brees could have an added bonus at his arsenal—WR Robert Meachem.

5.) Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

I think Ben could really surprise us with his fantasy numbers this year. Under Tomlin, last year, they really started to open up the offense with Ben, and they added a significant red-zone threat and third receiver in Limas Sweed this offseason. With a good combination of Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall, the Steelers' offense should be among the league leaders this year.

Sleepers

Ah yes, the section every fantasy football owner yearns to read—the sleeper section. Here are some quarterbacks to draft as your backups, who could potentially pay out big dividends.

Marc Bulger, Rams

It’s hard to imagine Bulger as a sleeper, but this year, with a healthy Steven Jackson, along with the addition of explosive WR Donnie Avery, Bulger should return to form of a few years ago. Randy McMichael figures to factor into the offensive in a major role this year, and that could be huge for Bulger. Snatch him up.

Jon Kitna, Lions

Yes, yes. Jon Kitna. He was one of the better fantasy quarterbacks for the first half of last year, before the Lions faced some injuries and their season turned for the worse.

The Lions don’t really have a true RB this year, and I look for Kitna to be carrying the offense. With a healthy Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams, I expect Kitna to potentially put up big numbers.

Jake Delhomme, Panthers

Delhomme was forever plagued with injuries during the course of last year, but all I hear out of Carolina this year is how well Delhomme has bounced back and is throwing the ball. The Panthers really beefed up their offensive line in the offseason with the additions of Jeff Otah, Toniu Fonoti, Milford Brown, and Keydrick Vincent.

They've also added WRs D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad, and strengthened their running game with the addition of RB Jonathan Stewart. If WR Dwayne Jarrett can contribute ANYTHING to the offense this year, that would be the icing on the cake.

Eli Manning, Giants

Although Eli turned the corner last year, he was never really a great fantasy option. One thing that could potentially change that this year? The Giants' defense.

The Giants have some major holes on defense this year, losing S Gibril Wilson, LBs Kawika Mitchell and Reggie Torbor, and team leader, DE Michael Strahan (to retirement).

What does that mean for Eli Manning?

The Giants won’t be able to get ahead, run the ball, and suffocate opposing offenses like they did last year. With these losses on defense, the Giants could be behind a lot more this year, causing Eli and the Giants to pass more.

WR Steve Smith looks real good so far in camp this year, and Burress and Shockey are always safe bets. I look for Eli’s numbers to increase this year.

Trent Edwards, Bills

Trent, Lee Evans, and Marshawn Lynch return on offense this year, this time with another WR and significant red-zone threat in WR James Hardy. The Bills moved the ball pretty well last year, but just couldn’t punch it in when they got in the red zone.

Hardy should help significantly, while creating a size mismatch with virtually every cornerback he faces. Just having him out there takes some of the attention away from Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch. Look for Edwards to have an increase in TDs this year.

Misconceptions/Warning

Here are some players that are either being hyped up too much or are poised to have a down year.

Carson Palmer, Bengals

“Oh my gosh, did he really put Carson Palmer on this list?” I know that’s what you’re thinking, but relax and take a deep breath. Chad Johnson is a huge wild card this season. Will he not care? Will he be out there to not get fined, or will he play up to his level?

Personally, I think he will play and have a great season, but there are a few other concerns about the Bengals’ offense this year.

Chad aside, the Bengals lost receivers Chris Henry and Tab Perry, and replaced them with rookies Andre Caldwell and project Jerome Simpson. Coming out of Coastal Carolina, Simpson will need time to adjust to the NFL, and I don’t expect much out of him this year.

The Bengals also have concerns at RB. Supposedly Chris Perry and Kenny Irons are healthy...whatever that means. Will Rudi Johnson return to his old form? Will Chad be in Cincinnati, and will he actually play?

These are too many concerns to draft Carson high in fantasy leagues as your No. 1 option. If you can draft him lower, go for it, but he’s too much of a risk to take while passing on other premier players.

Donovan McNabb, Eagles

I would not feel comfortable with Donovan as my No. 1 QB going into the fantasy year. He has so many injury concerns. What will it be this year? Not to mention that they STILL don’t have a No. 1 WR and no one to give RB Brian Westbrook a break.

DeSean Jackson will help the return game, and should give SOMETHING to the receiving corps, but I see all of their receivers (Reggie Brown, Kevin Curtis, and Jackson) as average. I’d stay away from McNabb.

Shaq Didn't Really Win Without Kobe.

Alex Boylhart — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 04:10:30 -0400

The Shaq and Kobe feud is now back. All the talk has been about how Kobe can't win without Shaq. O'Neal won without Kobe in 2006, but Kobe has yet to win a championship. However, Shaq didn't REALLY win anything without Kobe. Kobe has never had a big man in the middle since Shaq left.

He's never had any help, except this year. Shaq, on the other hand, had the second reincarnation of Kobe - Dwayne Wade. Wade was one of the best players in the league during their championship run at the same position Bryant played with the Lakers. How can anyone say, "Shaq won without Kobe?"

He didn't. Shaq had even better production at the guard position in Miami than he did with Kobe. Over the three seasons that Kobe and Shaq won NBA titles, Kobe averaged 25.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg and 5.1 apg during the regular seasons. In Wade's NBA title season with Shaq, Wade averaged 27.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg and 5.7 apg.

Wade had better production in all three major categories. However, what about during the playoffs, you ask? During the three runs for the Lakers, Kobe averaged 25.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg and 5 apg. Wade - 28.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg and 5.7 apg. Again, Wade better in all three major categories.

Dwayne Wade gave Shaq even a better outside presence in Miami than Kobe did in LA. Never did Shaq win anything by himself. Kobe, however, has not had even close to the same inside production since Shaq left. In addition, the one-year he did (this year), he went to the NBA finals. I'm sick of hearing that Kobe can't win without Shaq, but Shaq can win without Kobe. Shaq DID win in Miami with Kobe - Dwayne Wade.

MLB: Phillies Need to Add Quality Starter Before Deadline to Win

Alex Boylhart — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 12:30:52 -0400

Are the Phillies ready to win and take their division over for the next five years? They certainly have the players to do it, but we'll see if the front office has the mentality.

In order to push into that next tier of teams, the kind that make it deep into the playoffs year after year, the Phillies NEED to start getting quality pitching on their roster. They just haven't had a deep rotation in the last 15 years.

The first move for the Phillies: realize that Brett Myers is not an ace. He never has been and never will be. Hamels is your man. He's young and he's got great stuff. Be excited.

Myers is solid, but he is not a No. 1.

In a division where the Mets and Braves are fighting for last place and the youth of the Marlins and Nationals is starting to show as the year goes on, the Phillies look like the favorite to win the division and get into the playoffs. But can they go deep?

The Phillies are not going to win the World Series with Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and Adam Eaton in the back end of their rotation. It isn't a surprise they are looking to add a starting pitcher before the deadline, but will they just go for mediocre?

It is the Phillies' time. Don't go the cheap and ineffective way like years before. Don't add a Bronson Arroyo or an AJ Burnett. It's time to step up to the plate. It's time to win with the big clubs. In order to do that, you must act like a big club.

The second move for the Phillies: go out there, give up some good prospects, and add a CC Sabathia or an Aaron Harang. Then sign that player at the end of the year and have a dominant lineup and rotation for years to come. Don't let that player walk, or else you're right back to the better than average team you've been.

Enough of the cheap stop gaps. If the Phillies want to win like an elite team, they need to start acting like it. Don't settle for a body.