Bleacher Report - Articles by The Director

NFL Key Trends For Conference Weekend From NFLOne.com

The Director — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 12:44:11 -0500

AT FIRST GLANCE, there are games that always look ‘Tasty’ ATS in many publications as a ‘Bullet’ trend only to ‘trap’ upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real ‘ADVANTAGE’ against the ‘Trend’.

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DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

If there was ever a surprising matchup, it is the one taking place in Arizona, where the ARIZONA CARDINALS, who average an amazing 30.2 points per game on 365.8 yards per game face off against the Philadelphia Eagles, who arrive with one of the best records ATS of the remaining four teams.

5-1 ATS versus the NFC West over the last three years, including a dominating victory versus the Cardinals in Philadelphia in November where they held the Cardinals to only 25 rushing yards in the game.

Even more Impressive is the Eagles' 17-3 record ATS off a division game, 17-9 record ATS on the Road over the last three seasons. Of course this is the playoffs, and the Eagles, who are projected to have the the top offensive output of the day with 26.9 points, will arrive with the experience of the 3-1 record ATS over the last three years as well as 2-0 record ATS in its third playoff or Super Bowl game in a given season since 1998.

While the Cardinals do arrive 11-7 ATS as an Underdog of 3.5 to 9 points over the last three years, they are also 2-4 ATS versus the NFC East during that span. They will have to try to figure out how to points on the board versus an Eagles defense that has allowed only 4.6 yards per play on the Road this season; averaging 3.3 takeaways per game in its last three games.

FIRST LOOK

You are safe if with your heart being in the Baltimore Ravens corner in this one as although the Ravens lost ATS in their last matchup with the Steelers in December, it was the Ravens who entered on a 4-1 run ATS versus the Steelers; the Ravens entering 2-1 ATS in Pittsburgh over the last three years.

The game that the Ravens lost both SU and ATS is amazing to review as they were only able to put up 40 passing yards in the game in 2007.

With both of these teams outscoring their opponents by over 7 points per game in their last four games, the real danger for the Steelers is the Ravens +9 takeaway ratio on the Road which has been the difference this playoff season.

Even more troubling for the Steelers, who do arrive 8-3 ATS as 3.5 to 7 point Favorite over the last three seasons, and powering 26.7 points per game in their last three games, is the Ravens 11-3 record ATS against the Conference, and 8-2 record ATS on the Road this season.

For although it is the Steelers defense that the media has had a focus on, it is actually the Ravens D that has been most impressive of late allowing only 8.7 points per game in its last three games.

ADVANTAGE RAVENS

KING TRENDS

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© M.O. Productions 1.18.09

NFL Key Trends for Divisional Weekend from NFLOne.com

The Director — Sat, 10 Jan 2009 10:13:29 -0500

AT FIRST GLANCE, there are games that always look "Tasty" ATS in many publications as a ‘Bullet’ trend only to ‘trap’ upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real ‘ADVANTAGE’ against the ‘Trend’.

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE!

For those of you who do not study the numbers, but instead listen to sports talk radio, the continued focus on the injuries to Tomlinson and Gates may blind you to the fact that the San Diego Chargers are 2-0 ATS versus the PITTSBURGH STEELERS over the last three seasons, and the big reason that the Steelers enter the game 1-5 ATS versus the AFC West over the last three seasons.

While the media has a focus on the Steelers D, who have allowed only 14.4 points per game on only 3.1 yards per rush, it is the Chargers, who have allowed less than 12 points per game to the Steelers in their last two matchups, who should impress.

Having shocked the Colts and Patriots ATS in 2007, don't be surprised from a Chargers team that is 4-1 ATS in January, 9-3 ATS as an Underdog, and most impressively 4-2 ATS versus the AFC North over the last three seasons surprise the Steelers, who enter 0-1 ATS in the playoffs under Mike Tomlin.

Sure, Kurt Warner took down the Atlanta Falcons, and is projected to be the most productive quarterback of the weekend with 263 passing yards. Sure, the Arizona Cardinals are 7-1 ATS on Saturdays since 1992.

Upon a closer look, however, the Cardinals are actually 2-5 ATS versus the NFC South over the last three years. Averaging an amazing 407 offensive yards per game in their last three games, it is the CAROLINA PANTHERS, who enter 5-1 ATS versus the AFC West and 2-1 ATS after a bye week over the last three seasons that should be in the media spotlight.

While many will point to the Cardinals win ATS in October, a review of the game will uncover that one last stop by the Arizona defense would have propelled the Panthers the field goal it needed to cover the spread.

With the NFC South arriving 4-1 ATS in their last five Divisional Playoff games, this game is particularly interesting because experts are projecting the Panthers to have most points on the day with the fewest passing attempts by Delhomme.

Yet another year watching the ups and downs of Donovan McNabb. The trouble for the Eagles is that they run up against the Super Bowl Champions, who although they had beat them in December, 2008 here in New York had gone 0-4 ATS in the previous four matchups with the NEW YORK GIANTS.

Considering that Giants are 10-3 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent over the last three years, the victory may just have fuel to a fire in a team that is 5-0 ATS in the playoffs, and 28-11 ATS versus Division opponents over the last three years.

Projected to have to rely McNabb's arm, the Eagles, who themselves are 5-0 ATS as Road Underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points over the last three years, have struggled recently with a 1-1 playoff record ATS since 2005, including a SU victory in 2006.

FIRST LOOK

You are looking at a guy that has ridden Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens all the way to the sunset of the 2008 NFL Season. Rarely has there been more two evenly matched teams than in their matchup with the TENNESSEE TITANS.

In 2008 the Ravens arrive with the No. 2 rated defense (as rated by yards per game), that has propelled the team to a 10-3 record ATS versus the Conference this year. The trouble for the Ravens, who also bring the No. 4 rated rushing attack, are facing off with the Titans, who are powering the No. 7 rated rushing attack and the No. 7 rated defense, are 2-5 ATS versus the AFC South and 5-10 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent over the last three years.

The Titans, on the other hand, who will benefit from Fisher's playoff experience, arrive 2-0 ATS over the last three years versus the Ravens, including their October, 2008 victory. Even more eye opening is their 5-1 ATS versus the AFC North, and 2-0 record ATS after a bye over the last three years.

While many many root for the Ravens, it is simply too hard to go against the Titans and their 3-1 record ATS as a Home Favorite of three or less points over the last three years.
ADVANTAGE TITANS

KING TRENDS

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© M.O. Productions 1.9.09

NFL Key Trends for Wild-Card Weekend from NFLOne.com

The Director — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 02:40:50 -0500

AT FIRST GLANCE...there are games that always look ‘Tasty’ ATS in many publications as a ‘Bullet’ trend only to ‘trap’ upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real ‘ADVANTAGE’ against the ‘Trend’.

As you look to take action, Steve Makinen starts the day with one of the most interesting statistics in that Home teams that gain more than 7.4 yard per pass attempt are most recently 7-15 ATS; an uphill climb for the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Chargers.

Sunday's matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and SAN DIEGO CHARGERS is one of the checkered matchups of this Wild Card weekend. With both teams on a run by outscoring their opponents by over 18 points, and 3-1 ATS in January over the last three years, this one is a real question mark.

While the Chargers are 2-1 ATS in their last three matchups, and 6-2 ATS versus the AFC South over the last three years, the Colts arrive 2-0 ATS on Saturday, and 10-3 ATS where the line is +3 to -3 over the last three years.

Although the Chargers are 1-0 ATS versus the Colts in the playoffs, and 3-1 ATS in their last four matchups, weighing on this game is the last minute three-point victory the Colts produced in Week 12.

If there were every two teams that are streaking into the playoffs, it is the Ravens and the MIAMI DOLPHINS. With the series standing at 1-1 SU and ATS, the Ravens enter 6-1 ATS as Favorites this season while the Dolphins enter 6-17 ATS at Home and 3-4 ATS after two consecutive victories over the last three seasons.

Many reporters pointed to the Raven victory over the Fish in Miami in Week Seven as the coming out party for Flacco, whose 232 passing yards helped snap a seven-game SU Road losing streak for the Ravens. The Ravens looking to continue the 17-11 streak ATS for Road teams allowing 17 points per game on defense.

The question everyone has is whether McNabb will show up this weekend. Like an episode of The Hills, or at least I hear because my age far exceeds the demographic, McNabb, and the Philadelphia Eagles, 0-4 ATS as a Road Favorite and 0-1 ATS in the Wild Card round over the last three years take on the Minnesota Vikings, who are 2-4 ATS versus the NFC East, and 0-5 ATS as a Home Underdog of three or less points.

Having been held to 70 rushing yards in losing ATS and SU here in 2007, the real question is whether the Vikings' Jackson can succeed where Bollinger and Holcomb could not. Having held the opposition to only 10 points per game in outscoring them by 14 points per game in the last four, Jackson will have to step up to beat the Eagles.

FIRST LOOK

With the NFC Wild Card games going UNDER the total in seven of the last eight games, the Atlanta Falcons head to Arizona to face off with the ARIZONA CARDINALS. Jaded by the 2007 season, the Falcons enter 0-8 ATS after two wins. 2-0 ATS in their last two games versus Arizona, the Falcons, who in losing SU in their last trip to Arizona will be counting on Turner to make the difference.

With Redman piling up 315 passing yards last November versus the Cardinals, look for Ryan, who is projected to only have 209 passing yards to surprise the crowd. The Cardinals will have trouble attempting to escape the 1-5-2 record ATS that 9-7 teams have piled up most recently in the Wild Card round.

ADVANTAGE FALCONS

KING TRENDS
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NFL Key Trends for Week 17 From NFLOne.com

The Director — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 15:32:56 -0500

AT FIRST GLANCE…there are games that always look "tasty" ATS in many publications as a "Bullet" trend only to "trap" upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real "ADVANTAGE" against the "Trend."

Could there be any more painful way to close the season for the OAKLAND RAIDERS than
to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who last defeated the Raiders by 13 points in the
2005 Super Bowl?

Can the ATLANTA FALCONS turn their fortune vs. the St. Louis Rams,
who had beaten them by 12 points last year?

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

If the NEW YORK GIANTS had not won the division as well as home field advantage, history may have just repeated itself this weekend; the Giants entering with an amazing 20-6 record ATS on the Road, and 5-0 ATS in Domes over the last three years.

While the Minnesota Vikings have gone 2-0 ATS and 2-0 SU in mid-year contests versus Tom Coughlin as Underdog, including a 24 victory margin last year, their sole loss ATS came here as a 6.5 Favorite back in 2004.

Favored again this year, the Vikings, who are one of the worst post-Thanksgiving teams since 1998, and 2-3 ATS versus the NFC East over the last three seasons, will look to take advantage of the bench of the NY Giants.

Another team looking to take advantage of the starters being sidelined are the
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, 7-3 ATS as Underdogs over the last three years, or will
it be the Tennessee Titans, 14-3 ATS versus the division over the last three years?

For when the starting team is in, the Tennessee Titans are 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU in their
last five in the series; the Titans going 2-0 ATS and SU as 4+ Favorites. Closing the
2007 season by holding the Colts to only 10 points as Young able to outgun Sorgi,
the historians will be looking to see whose side fate is on.

FIRST LOOK

Don't be fooled that the Detroit Lions have not won SU in Green Bay in the last ten
years as they are actually 2-2 ATS in their last four games in Green Bay; their last
victory ATS and SU coming in 2005.

What the press has failed to note is that the Lions are 9-1 ATS as an Underdog of 10 or more points, and 6-0 ATS as a Road Dog of 10.5-14 points over the last three seasons.

Of course the Green Bay Packers, who are one of the top teams Over the Total Post-Thanksgiving, have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games with the Lions, including an 18 point margin of victory in Week 2.
ADVANTAGE LIONS

It is easy to think that there is no connection between the Kansas City Chiefs and
the CINCINNATI BENGALS, 3-2 ATS versus the AFC West over the last three seasons.
However, upon further look, this has been one of the few bright spots for the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 2-1 ATS in the last three games in the series, including one of
2007's top offensive performance by Huard and Johnson. The key here is that
the Chiefs, who are 1-4 ATS versus the AFC North, had the benefit of home field
advantage in all those games.
ADVANTAGE CHIEFS

KING TRENDS

With the playoffs on the line, history has shone brightly on the New England Patriots
with a trip to Buffalo to close the seasons. 4-0 ATS in their last four matchups
with the Bills, including a 10 point victory in Week 10, the Pats arrive knowing
that their last loss in Buffalo was in 2003; this is surprising keeping in mind Buffalo's
13-9 record ATS at Home over the last three seasons.

Winning by 46 points in Buffalo last year, the Bills are managing less than 7 points per game in their last three here in Buffalo; New England winning by an average of over 30 points per game in their last three in Buffalo.
ADVANTAGE PATRIOTS

While the Fish have turned their fortunes around, the NEW YORK JETS will also hope that history repeats itself. Although there is no denying the turnaround that the Miami Dolphins (1-3 ATS as a Road Dog of 3 or less points) have had, it should be kept in mind that the New York Jets (2-1 ATS as Home Favorite of three or less points) have gone 9-0-1 ATS versus the Dolphins in their last 10 matchups.Their last loss came in 2003.

Riding the confidence of the Week 1 victory, Brett
Favre will look to be the difference in a series that has seen two of the last
three here in New York decided by 3 or less points.
ADVANTAGE JETS

If there was ever a way to wrap one of the most memorable regular seasons in
recent memory, it is here in San Diego where the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS are
2-1-1 in the last four in the series with the Denver Broncos.

What is interesting is that the Chargers, who are 10-1 ATS as Home Favorites of 7.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons, suffered the one loss here to close the
2005 season.

The bad news for Denver fans is that the Broncos, 3-10 ATS
in December, and 3-14 ATS in the division over the last three years,
are actually most recently 0-2 ATS as 7.5 to 10 point Underdogs here.
ADVANTAGE CHARGERS

Week 14 Key NFL Trends From NFLOne.com

The Director — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 07:47:35 -0500

Sorry that I have been away...

AT FIRST GLANCE…there are games that always look "Tasty" ATS in many publications as a "Bullet" trend only to "trap" upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real "ADVANTAGE" against the "Trend."

The playoff runs continue this week. It is hard to not to become one of the few and proud Atlanta Falcons fans here in Los Angeles. The Atlanta Falcons, 10-5 ATS in games with a spread of +3 to -3 over the last three years, were able to turn back the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, 1-4 as a Home Favorite of three or less points over the last three years, in Week 10, and thereby turn the page on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS who were on a 4-0 run ATS in the previous four matchups.

With the Falcons arriving 0-6 ATS after two consecutive wins over the last three years, this one is "up for grabs."

DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE

The Fish were just as prolific in Week Eight turning back the BUFFALO BILLS after going 0-8 ATS in their previous eight matchups in the series. With the teams headed to Canada, the Miami Dolphins are thankful that they will not have to see Buffalo where they had not won since 2003. Last year’s to Europe for the NFL battle taking place under dark and dreary weather.

The books have definitely found a way to foil Joe Public in New York this week. For although the NY GIANTS are 3-1-1 ATS in their last four versus the Philadelphia Eagles, they have been on a 2-0-1 run ATS in the last three, including a victory in Week 10 this year.

Having won by an average of four points in its last two in Philadelphia, Coughlin's Giants are 2-2 ATS at Home versus Philadelphia since his arrival in New York. 13-4 ATS versus the Division and 26-9 ATS versus the Conference over the last three years, the Giants arrive as 7.5 point Favorites. With McNabb shut out of the end zone in 2007 with only 138 passing yards, this one will boil down to the Giants D.

FIRST LOOK

If you are just jumping into the 2008 season, an opening line of 9.5 was looking pretty good on Monday (and now again) in Thursday’s game between the Oakland Raiders, 1-7 ATS over the last four weeks in the last three seasons, and the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, 11-4 ATS versus the Division over the last three years, given the Chargers 10 point margin of victory as nine point Favorites in Week Four in Oakland.

Having settled for a moment at 10.5, this contest took on an interesting dynamic for although the Chargers have only lost one game ATS in the series with the Raiders since 2002, the one loss was as a 13.5 point Favorite here in San Diego in 2006. The Chargers, 9-1 ATS as 7.5-10.5 Favorites over the last three seasons, are 1-1 ATS as 11+ point Favorites over the last three years versus the Raiders.

Over the span in their victories they have won by an average of over 14 points at Home since 2006. The real question is whether a Chargers team that is already looking to 2009 can deliver the same punch it had versus the Jets and Patriots.
ADVANTAGE CHARGERS

Not since 2004 have the DETROIT LIONS, 4-13 ATS as 3.5 to 9.5 point Underdogs and 5-10 ATS versus the division over the last three years, swept the Minnesota Vikings ATS, who themselves are 7-9 ATS versus the division over the last three years. Beginning in 2005, the Vikings took the reigns back on the series going 5-0-1 ATS until running into the Lions as 3.5 Favorites in Week Six.

With a total of 22 combined points in that game, the Vikings will hope after winning by 19 points per game in its last two by averaging over 30 points that they can avoid the struggle they had here in 2007; with Jackson at the helm they suffered their only SU loss over the last three years.
ADVANTAGE VIKINGS

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Week 11 Key NFL Trends From NFLOne.com

The Director — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 10:57:22 -0500

AT FIRST GLANCE…there are games that always look ‘Tasty’ ATS in many publications as a "Bullet" trend only to "trap" upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real "ADVANTAGE" against the ‘Trend’.

Who would have thought that the word showdown would be used with this Thursday’s battle between the NY Jets and NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS? Who would have thought that with the injury to Tom Brady, and the arrival of Favre in New York that the teams would arrive as carbon copies of one another?

The Jets arrive averaging 4.6 rushing yards per attempt while the Patriots are pumping out 4.1 rushing yards per attempt. The real question in this one is whether Favre, 89.8 rating, and the Jets can write another page in the history books. Having faced off both in the regular season and playoffs, the NY Jets arrive 2-0 ATS in their last two in the series here in New England.

Interestingly, the Pats have not been favored by as little as 3.5 points since 2002 when they ironically were upset by the Jets by 13 points. With the only SU loss since 2002 coming here in 2005, the Pats have actually outscored by the Jets by nearly 10 points per game over the last four years.

DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE

With Favre looking young again atop the AFC East, we return to 2004, the last time the ATLANTA FALCONS met and beat the Denver Broncos, and the NY GIANTS lost ATS to the Baltimore Ravens.

Like the injury to Brady, if there was ever an unfortunate injury for a team is that of the Bears’ Kyle Orton, who is 2-0 SU with a passer rating of 103.2 in his battles with the GREEN BAY PACKERS.

Lovie Smith and the Bears are on a 2-0 run ATS versus the Packers; the Bears going 3-1-1 ATS over the last three years. It should be kept in mind that the Packers, now led by Rodgers, who has a 104 passer rating in his games versus the NFC North, loss to the Bears by 28 points here last year came in the last week in the season.

FIRST LOOK

With one stroke of the clock, two teams faced off with the AFC North in Week 10. The INDIANAPOLIS COLTS were up to the challenge with a victory, and the Houston Texans were not. Now the two face one another.

Projecting to have the most points on Sunday, the Colts arrive Home where they are not only 2-0 ATS in their last two games with the Texans, but have outscored the Texans by over 20 points per game in those victories. Even more daunting for the Houston Texans defense that is ranked 19th in allowing 329.3 yards per game is Manning powering a 118.4 passer rating in his 13 games in the series.
ADVANTAGE COLTS

With the 49ERS working to overcome a heartbreaking loss, and the Rams trying to clean off the tire tracks left by the Jets loss, the two teams meet in San Francisco. After going 0-3 ATS in the series since his arrival in St. Louis, Linehan finally produced a victory ATS here last November on only 207 offensive yards. Can Haslett outwit and outplay Singletary?

ADVANTAGE 49ERS

So you dare follow the Arizona Cardinals to Seattle. Having followed the trends on Monday Night Football, the Cardinals arrive in Seattle where the Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four games in this series. Is there a turning of the tide at work given that the Cardinals were 0-2 SU and ATS in 2004 losing by nearly 20 points per game. While we to have wait and see, Warner has to be salivating at the Seahawks league’s worst rated passing defense that allowed him 305 passing yards in the loss here ago.

ADVANTAGE SEAHAWKS

KEY TRENDS

If there was ever a coach, team, and nation ready to take advantage of the struggling Dallas Cowboys team, it is the WASHINGTON REDSKINS. With their win ATS in Week 4, the Redskins, who are projected to power nearly 350 yards of offense on Sunday, are now 4-0 ATS in their last four in the series.

Having not lost to the Cowboys SU since 2004, the Skins have outscored the Boys by over 15 points per game in their last three victories here in Washington; although Campbell had lit up the Cowboys in Dallas for 348 passing yards in Dallas, it was quarterback Todd Collins standing tall as the local hero here last year. Dallas fans will hope for the return of Romo, 103.5 rating, will be welcome back after suffering through Brad Johnson’s 5.47 yards per attempt for a whopping quarterback rating of 50.5.

ADVANTAGE REDSKINS

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Week 10 Key NFL Trends from NFLOne.com

The Director — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 02:12:55 -0500

AT FIRST GLANCE…there are games that always look 'Tasty’ ATS in many publications as a ‘Bullet’ trend only to ‘trap’ upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real "ADVANTAGE" against the ‘Trend’.

If there was ever a series on a yo-yo, it is here in San Diego. Before you jump all over the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, who are 4-1 ATS in the last five games in the series, realize that the one victory by the Kansas City Chiefs came here; not only a victory ATS, but Edwards stole a SU victory and upset here in 2007. The one-two punch of Huard and Johnson putting up 390 offensive yards for the win; of course, this is the now the reign of Thigpin and Charles.

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE.

With Turner's departure sinking the Chargers, and uplifting the Falcons, it seems appropriate to travel to Atlanta where the ATLANTA FALCONS are 3-0 ATS at Home in 2008. While the New Orleans Saints are 1-2 ATS on the Road, they are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS versus the Falcons ATS in their last four matchups. In fact, in the last two in the series here in Atlanta, the Saints have won by an average of 19 points. Hard to believe that it was Leftwich and Harrington guiding the Falcons against the Saints here in 2007.

FIRST LOOK

If New Yorkers were not celebrating in Times Square after Obama's victory, they will get their chance on Sunday as the streaking New York Giants, 17-5 ATS on the Road, and 6-1 ATS as an Underdog of 3 or less points over the last three years, battle the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, 0-3 ATS as Home Favorites of three or less points over the last three years, who were held to only an average of 6.5 points per game in their 2007 season matchups.

The Giants 3-0 reign ATS started back in the 2006 playoffs in Philadelphia. With the offense powering 168 rushing yards per game in its last four games, it is the defense, and the 2.8 takeaways that has the Giants on the winning track. With McNabb projected to have over 250 passing yards, Manning will need his No. 2 ranked rushing attack, averaging 162.6 rushing yards per game to save the day.
ADVANTAGE GIANTS

Like the Green Bay/Minnesota series, we are making a return trip to the San Francisco/Arizona series. As I noted in Week One–one thing is for sure, in this series, through both Green, and now Whisenhunt, the Away team, who is is King. With James and Hightower driving the engine in Week One, the Cardinals raised the bar to 8-0 ATS for the Away team in their last eight matchups in this series.

The 'Niners will try to avoid O'Sullivan's bumbles, and the 4 fumbles that sank them in Week 1, and once again out shoot the Niners, who seem to come alive in this stadium averaging 32 points per game on over 375 total yards of offense in going 1-1 SU.
ADVANTAGE CARDINALS

It also worth noting that the 49ers are a perfect 9-0 Over the Total after the bye week. This is compounded by the fact that in the last two wins ATS for the Niners here in Arizona these teams went Over the Total to the tune of 68 and 61 points.
OVER

KING TRENDS

This is a Green Bay Packers team that is one of the few that can run with the top ranked Tennessee Titans.

Outscoring their opponents by an average of 6 points with the No. 1 ranked pass defense in the last four games, allowing only 164 yards per game, the Packers, 14-5 ATS on the Road over the last three years, including 4-1 ATS as Underdogs of three or less points, face off with the MINNESOTA VIKINGS, who are projected by our friends at FootballGuys.com to have the leading rushing attack on Sunday with 158 rushing yards.

That said, the trouble for the Vikings, 5-11 ATS in games with +3 or -3 spreads, and 3-5 ATS in weeks 10-13 over the last three years, is the projected 238 passing yards expected for Green Bay's Rodgers; although the Vikings have an average of 2.3 takeaways per game in their last four games, it is the 2.3 turnovers that will ultimately trouble them again on Sunday.

The facts remains that the Packers are 4-1 ATS in this series with McCarthy at the helm. Underdogs by as many as 5.5 points, and favored by as many as 5.5 points, the Packers, 6-0 ATS in Dome games over the last three years, have been steady in their last two in Minnesota winning by an average margin of 6.5 points per game.
ADVANTAGE PACKERS

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WILD CARD KEY NFL TRENDS: History Repeats Itself

The Director — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 01:20:23 -0500

At first glance there are games that always look 'Tasty' ATS in many publication as a 'Bullet' trend only to 'trap' upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real 'ADVANTAGE' against the 'Trend'.

Having seen the column explode in popularity in 2007, in 2008, The Director will draw even greater clarity by identifying the key trends as either 'First Look' or 'King Trends', and documenting the record the ADVANTAGE plays ATS.

FIRST LOOK 1.2 Just when I thought I would have to retire my pen for 2007, I have found that 'History repeats itself', and we are able to continue to sketch the lines of Wild Card week.

The fuzziest line is in Tampa Bay where the 17-3 loss ringing in their ears from 2006, the TAMPAY BAY BUCCANEERS will hope that the departure of Barber, who was a key driving force for the Giants in the loss, and the arrival of veteran, and often heroic efforts from Jeff Garcia in Tampa Bay, will be the difference in a matchup that went the Giants way as Gradkowski struggled through the air with only 139 passing yards for 3 points.

A clearer line is in Seattle, where outside of those Washington Redskins fans that have weathered the many losing season, few recall the 2005 season when Gibbs and Brunell closed the season 5-0 ATS, including 3 dominant victories over divisional foes, which landed his team in Seattle for the divisional playoffs. Although Brunell powered out 242 passing yards, the lack of a rushing attack left them in a 10 point hole at the final buzzer. With many of those Seahawks players who drove that victory gone, Gibbs, whose redskins closed the season 4-0 ATS on over 25 points per game in those games, will look to play his ADVANTAGE, and reproduce the repetitive success he had at Home in 2003 and 2005 during the regular season.

KING TRENDS 1.2The boldest line is in Pittsburgh where I had written in Week 15 of the 'pink slip' that the Jacksonville Jaguars owned in their matchups with the PITTSBURGH STEELERS; the Jaguars going on to power 421 yards of offense in their victory of which 224 of those yards were on the ground. In questionable health, Roethlisberger, who only put up 106 passing yards in the lopsided Week 15 loss, and only 127 passing yards here in 2006, will have trouble finding a way to shed the monkey of the Jaguars. The Jaguars will look to take advantage of a Steelers defense that in going 2-3 ATS in their last five regular season games, including a couple of lower tier NFL offenses, allowed an average of just shy of 25 points per game. 3-0 ATS in their last three battle with Pittsburgh, 5-0 ATS dating back to 2002, Del Rio, who has outscored the Steelers by an average of 6.5 points per game as 3 point Underdogs in both the previous contests in Pittsburgh now enters as the Favorites as they look to prove that 'History repeats itself'
ADVANTAGE JAGUARS

1.2 The fine line is in San Diego. In Week 14, I wrote that if Turner was going to define himself as a 'Man' from 'the boys', he would need to continue Schottenheimer's reign over the Tennessee Titans in the unfriendly confines; although it took overtime, indeed he did. In the infamous game that cost Rivers the health of his knee, the SAN CHARGERS defense held Young to 13 completions for 121 passing yards for only 17 points. Having gone 2-0 ATS over the prior three years, holding the Titans to only 12 points per game, Tomlinson, who had powered 71 of the 241 rushing yards that led to a 40-7 blow out in 2006, powered out the 146 rushing yards necessary to beat the Titans here in Week 14 to go 3-0 ATS. Defense and Bironis field goals do not look like a winning strategy in this playoffs. With the Chargers averaging over 400 yards per game in the matchups, having arrived here to get the Chargers through the first round of the playoffs, Turner understands that 'History repeats itself' as he looks to parlay his 5-0 run ATS that propelled the Bolts into the playoffs.
ADVANTAGE CHARGERS

DON'T BE FOOLED BY THE MEDIA HYPE No games this week.

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Week 17 Key NFL Trends: "Farewell To 2007"

The Director — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 03:40:23 -0500

This is the time of the year when some teams rest for the playoffs and others are forced to look to start their course for the 2008-2009 season. A team looking at the dawn of a new era for 2008-2009 are the Chicago Bears, who in plugging in Orton, who looks like he belongs in 1977 as opposed to 2007, putting up a 71.4 rating on 5.5 yards per attempt, and now faces off against the injury ridden NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, who themselves fell on the short side of the rejuvenated Philadelphia Eagles. Still reelin' from last year's playoff loss, Brees and the Saints arrive 0-1-1 ATS over the last three years trying to take the Bears' ADVANTAGE back.

With one of its best offensive efforts in weeks in St. Louis, the Pittsburgh Steelers visit one of the AFC's worst teams in the BALTIMORE RAVENS, ranked 27th in the NFL with 16.5 points per game. Still sporting one of the top ranked rushing defenses, the Ravens will welcome the Steelers, who while embarrassing them on Monday Night earlier this year, have not won here in Baltimore since 2002. 4-0 ATS in Baltimore versus the Steelers, the Ravens will hope that their defense that has allowed only 9 points per game in their last four matchups here against the Steelers, can parlay their ADVANTAGE, and point them in the right direction as folks here starting thinking about the Orioles.

After suffering a Week 5 loss at the hands of the Chicago Bears, Favre was able to bounce back against Washington. After a big defeat in Week 16 last year, Favre rallied with one of his memorable performances against these same Chicago Bears. After getting hammered, the GREEN BAY PACKERS, who have lost home field advantage, return Home to play their ADVNTAGE as they face a much kinder, gentler opponent in the Detroit Lions, who were much more 'turkey' than 'King of the Jungle' in their Thanksgiving Day matchup losing by 11 in a lopsided affair. Unlike the Bears, who turned the tide in 2007 versus the Pack, the Lions, who had lost four in a row before beating Kansas City with their 30th ranked rushing attack, enter 0-3 ATS in their last three matchups with the Pack, outscored by over 8+ points per game.

KING TRENDS

If there was ever a team looking for traction, it is the OAKLAND RAIDERS, whose quarterbacks rank 31st with a 69.4 rating, who in playing games that look more like preseason training camp lately with an endless mix of players, face off against the streaking San Diego Chargers, who not only powered out an undefeated 5-0 record ATS, and 4-1 record SU in Oakland under Marty Schottenheimer's reign, but outscored the Raiders by over 25 points per game in the last two matchups in Oakland Stadium.
ADVANTAGE CHARGERS

Coming off a slim victory with the NY Jets, the TENNESSEE TITANS, who are quietly powering the 5th ranked rushing offense and defense, will welcome the sight of the streaking Indianapolis Colts, whose 17th ranked rushing defense will be pushed to the limits this week. The Titans enter 3-0 ATS versus the Colts after going 0-6 ATS during the three previous years. The catch here is that in those games, the Titans have been an Underdog by an average of 10.5 points. The last time the Titans were favorites was back in 2003 in a 2 point loss here in Tennessee.
ADVANTAGE TITANS

DON'T BE FOOLED BY THE MEDIA HYPE

This has been the year that has allowed sportswriters to tout a different team each week. The flavor of the week is the WASHINGTON REDSKINS, who have outscored their opponents by over 10 points on 26 points per game in their last three. If there has every been a man to steal Romo and McNabb's thunder it has been Todd Collins, who is powering a 107 rating on a 0% interception percentage. Beware. As you when you read through the lines, the Redskins have not been favored by 7 or more points since 2002 enter 1-1-1 ATS in Washington versus the Cowboys under Gibbs' reign; with the average spread between -1.5 to +3, the Redskins will hope to repeat their big 2005 28 point victory versus a Cowboys team that is 0-3 ATS in their last three on only 18 points per game.

© M.O. Productions 12.26.07

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